vision of Agricultural Sc

i e n c e s

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORN

TRENDS ~

AND

UU I LOOK

Californ

COT

NDUSTRY

jH CALIFORNIA AGRICULTURAL
Experiment Station

CIRCULAR 495

THE CALIFORNIA APRICOT INDUSTRY

has undergone important changes during the past 50 years. This circular
reviews the factors responsible for these changes and indicates the situation
in prospect.

HERE IS THE SITUATION

Acreage — expanded rapidly until 1926, then
declined by over half. The decrease was less
severe in the major producing areas and for
the principal varieties.

Yield— doubled since 1920-1929 to almost 5
tons per bearing acre. Yield varies widely
from year-to-year and among districts and
varieties.

Production — increased sharply during 1920-
1939 and then decreased by a quarter to an
average of 185,000 tons maintained since
1940.

Canning — has become the major outlet. The
quantity canned rose from a quarter of the
crop in 1915-1929 to two-thirds since 1955.

Drying — reached a peak of 168,000 tons in
the 1930's, then decreased to 46,000. Drying
declined from 68 to 25 per cent of sales.

Fresh Sales — increased gradually to almost
25,000 tons in 1944-1950, then declined
sharply to 11,000 tons in 1955-1959. Usually
half to two-thirds of these sales are made
within the state.

Exports — represented 35 to 40 per cent of
the prewar crop. But, with curtailed ship-
ments of canned and dried apricots after
the war, exports dropped to 10 per cent of
the average crop in 1945-1959.

Grower Prices — are highest on interstate
fresh shipments and lowest for cannery
sales. The average seems to be determined
chiefly by consumer purchasing power, and
to a lesser extent by annual production.

THIS IS THE OUTLOOK

New acreage coming into bearing in the
next few years will about offset tree re-
movals. Bearing acreage will become still
more concentrated in the major districts.

A further small rise, say of 10 per cent,
seems likely by 1965 — provided good cul-
tural practices, now used, are not aban-
doned.

Some increase is expected. Large annual
variations will continue, as in the past, be-
cause of fluctuations in yield.

Larger quantities will be canned. As much
as 75 per cent of the crop may go to canners
by the mid-1960's.

This outlet will become even less important
if canning expands as expected. Drying may
decline to 20 per cent of the crop.

The recent downward trend is not expected
to continue. However, a large increase also
seems unlikely. Possibly fresh sales will be
at 10,000-15,000 tons in the early 1%0's.

Exports are likely to continue at about pres-
ent level (far below prewar quantities),
especially for canned and dried apricots.
Fresh shipments may increase but not suffi-
ciently to affect the over-all picture greatly.

The outlook is for prices at or slightly
above recent averages — provided consumer
purchasing power continues to climb. Prices
should not be depressed unduly except in
years when bumper crops are produced.

THE AUTHOR: Jerry Foytik is Associate Professor of Agricultural Eco-
nomics and Associate Agricultural Economist in the Agricultural Experi-
ment Station, and on the Giannini Foundation, Davis.

JANUARY, 1961

JERRY FOYTIK

CALIFORNIA

APRICOT INDUSTRY

TRENDS AND OUTLOOK

CONTENTS

The Industry 3

Acreage and Yield 7

Production and Utilization . . .13

Fresh Consumption 15

Processing Uses 21

Exports 24

Returns to Producers 28

JLhe apricot is established as one of Cali-
fornia's important specialty crops. An-
nual production in the state accounts for
90 per cent of the national total and
about a third of the world crop. Within
the state commercial acreage is confined
chiefly to two major varieties grown in
a few specialized producing areas.

Apricot production in California
started soon after Mission San Diego
was founded in 1769. Improved varie-
ties were not imported until the early
1850's and production was largely
limited to small fruit gardens until after
the overland railroad arrived in 1869.

California accounts for practically all
the apricots processed in the United
States. The percentage of the state's pro-
duction canned has doubled during the
past 30 years and that dried has de-
creased by a half, while the percentage
consumed fresh averaged almost 10 per
cent of the total.

Fresh sales are divided almost equally
between local marketings and out-of-
state shipments. Fresh apricots from
California are marketed early in the sea-

son before shipments of apricots from
other states and of other fruits become
heavy. Apricots constitute 15 per cent
of the fresh deciduous tree fruits shipped
from California during June when most
of the apricots are moved.

THE INDUSTRY

Apricots can be grown under a variety
of climatic, soil, and cultural conditions.
Commercial success, however, requires
that care be given to the selection of a
site.

Growing Conditions

Climate is probably the most impor-
tant factor limiting commercial produc-
tion. The early blooming habit of the
apricot and its chilling requirements (to
break the tree's winter rest) precludes
commercial production in most fruit-
growing regions of the nation. The best
climate for apricots is clear and dry
weather, with fairly cold winters and
only moderately high spring and sum-
mer temperatures before harvest. Con-
tinued cool, damp weather may cause
fruit brown rot. Extremely high summer
temperatures (of 100°-105°F or more)
during fruit ripening may cause pit-burn
and damage fruit quality.

Normal rainfall may provide enough
moisture to keep apricot trees alive and
to bear some fruit. Inadequate water,
however, results in weak growth, small
trees, and low yields. In California the
great bulk of the acreage is irrigated.

Apricots grow quite satisfactorily on
a wide range of soil types. Strong, vigor-

[3]

ous growth of the tree, however, is more
readily attained on deep, fertile, well-
drained loam and clay-loam soils.
Lighter soils may require heavier appli-
cations of fertilizer and more frequent
irrigation for high yields.

Harvesting

The apricot picking season is short.
Usually it lasts about 15 to 20 days for
a given variety and includes two or three
pickings. The beginning of harvest is
influenced by the intended outlet for the
crop since fruit at different stages of ma-
turity is required for fresh marketing,
canning, and drying.

Normally the grower knows the prob-
able outlet for his fruit in advance of
harvest. Although a portion of the crop
might go to each of the three outlets, the
grower ordinarily concentrates on only
one outlet. He may, however, use a sec-
ond outlet for the portion of his fruit
gathered on the last picking.

Apricots to be shipped fresh are picked

at the earliest stage of maturity. For
eastern shipment the fruit is harvested
when it shows some yellow color but
while it is still hard and firm. Somewhat
more mature apricots are used for local
fresh sales since less ripening will occur
during shipment to market.

Cannery apricots are picked a little
later. The fruit should be firm-ripe and
have developed a full color, but it should
not yet be soft.

For drying, harvest is delayed until
further ripening on the trees would make
the fruit too soft for satisfactory han-
dling. Fully mature apricots are pre-
ferred for two reasons: a higher dry-out
ratio results because the fruit has a
higher sugar content, and a better grade
of dried product results because of the
smaller proportion of poorly colored
halves.

Producing Areas

Growing conditions are particularly
favorable in the coastal valleys, especi-

APRICOT PRODUCTION DISTRICTS

As used in this circular, production districts are defined to include the
following counties listed in descending order of present acreage:

Santa Clara District includes five counties southeast of San Francisco:
Santa Clara, San Benito, Alameda, Monterey, and Santa Cruz. Half of
the state's apricot acreage is located in these five counties.

West Central Valley District includes three counties near the river's
mouth: Solano, Contra Costa and Yolo. These counties represent almost
one quarter of the total acreage.

Stockton District is composed of Stanislaus and San Joaquin counties
in the northern part of San Joaquin Valley. It constitutes 14 per cent of
the acreage.

South San Joaquin District includes six counties in the southern part
of the valley: Fresno, Kings, Merced, Kern, Tulare and Madera. About
6 per cent of the acreage is located in this area.

Other Areas, representing 8 per cent of the acreage, include all other
42 counties of the state. Eighteen counties have no commercial acreage,
19 have limited plantings of less than 80 acres each, and the remaining
five have acreage ranging from 130 to 1,900.

[4]

ally those south of San Francisco Bay, During the second half of the nine-
and the adjacent counties of the Central teenth century several varieties of apri-
Valley. Temperatures are suitable. Irri- cots were grown in many areas of the
gation is possible and not too expensive, state — usually in small home orchards.
Insect and disease control is feasible. As production became more commercial-
Conditions in other fruit-growing regions ized, varieties less desirable for commer-
are less favorable for profitable produc- cial sales were replaced and, as a result,
tion. These relative advantages are re- areas for growing apricots became more
fleeted in former and recent plantings, sharply defined.

CHARACTERISTICS OF APRICOT VARIETIES

Only a few varieties are of commercial importance in California. Royal
and Tilton account for 97 per cent of the acreage. The remainder is
planted to Moorpark and Derby.

Royal is a firm, well-colored, highly flavored apricot of medium size.
It is used widely for canning and drying and is also shipped fresh.
Blenheim is so similar in fruit characteristics to Royal that the two
varieties often are considered as one. Official statistics compiled by the
state make no differentiation. In this circular the term Royal is used to
include the Blenheim variety. Royal and Blenheim were imported to
California a century ago from France and England, respectively.

Tilton is lighter in color and flatter in shape than Royal, blooms and
ripens somewhat later, and has less tendency to "pit-burn." This variety
is also used in all three outlets but less satisfactorily than Royal. The
canned fruit is blander; the dried product is less attractive in color and
has a lower dry-out ratio; the fresh fruit, though larger in size, is of
lower quality. The trees tend more to alternate bearing than Royal but
are very prolific in "on" years. The Tilton was originated in Kings
County by J. E. Tilton in 1885.

Moorpark is a large apricot of excellent fresh-eating quality, even
though the fruit usually ripens unevenly and becomes very soft when
fully ripe. The fruit matures and is marketed later than Royal and Tilton.
Moorpark is dried but the dried product is variable in color. It is not
considered suitable for canning. The trees are irregular and shy bearers.
Hemskirke is a variety of very similar character and use. It is grouped
together with Moorpark in this circular to conform with industry
practice.

Derby closely resembles Royal in tree growth and fruit appearance.
However, it tends to set somewhat lighter crops, to ripen less evenly,
and to mature earlier. It is especially well suited for shipment to eastern
markets but is not desired for processing because the stone tends to cling
to the fruit flesh. This variety, first planted near Winters, California, in
about 1895, is a good one in early shipping districts because it extends
the picking season, especially on the early side. Because of its close simi-
larity to Royal, Derby may be shipped under that name.

[5]

Now commercial acreage is concen-
trated in a few counties. By adding
nearby counties with smaller acreage to
these production centers we cover the
territory included in the principal apri-
cot-producing districts listed in the box.
This segregation is arbitrary but con-
venient in our discussion of the major
areas of production. These four major
districts represent 92 per cent of the
present total acreage: 48 per cent in
Santa Clara District, 24 per cent in West
Central Valley District, 14 per cent in
Stockton District, and 6 per cent in South
San Joaquin District.

Varieties Planted

Numerous apricot varieties have been
grown in California. They can still be
produced successfully, though not neces-
sarily profitably, in several areas of the
state. By about 1900 the list of acceptable
varieties was greatly reduced. Since 1920
commercial production has been limited
chiefly to two varieties. About 78 per
cent of the present acreage is planted to
Royal and 19 per cent to Tilton. The re-
mainder (3 per cent) is equally divided
between Moorpark and minor varieties.
Most of the small acreage in minor vari-
eties is in early-maturing varieties, espe-

cially Derby, which are suitable to early
districts and can be shipped while the
prices at consumer markets are still
favorable.

Apricot varieties differ, sometimes
markedly, in appearance, eating quality,
suitability for processing, maturity dates,
and other respects. These are summarized
on page 5 for the four varieties.

California's Production

Apricots are grown extensively in
California, Washington and Utah. The
small production grown in other states is
limited chiefly to home gardens and for
supplying local markets. California ac-
counts for about 92 per cent of the pro-
duction in the three major states.

The crops from the three major states
are utilized in significantly different
ways. In California over 90 per cent is
processed compared to 20 to 25 per cent
in Washington and Utah. The state ac-
counts for all the apricots dried in the
United States, about 98 per cent of those
canned and frozen, and 55 to 60 per cent
of fresh sales. Because of early maturity:
the bulk of California fresh apricots are
marketed before those from Washington
and Utah.

California's importance on the world

U. S. Apricot Production and Utilization, 1 950-1 959 Average

Use

California

Washington

Utah

Total

California

Fresh sales

1,000 fresh tons

Per cent

14.8

113.2

52.2

7.5
2.5
0

10.0

.4
1.0

3.3
1.3
0

25.6

117.0

52.2

58.0

96.7

100.0

Canned and frozen

Dried

Total sales

180.2
1.7
0

4.6
.5
.1

194.8
2.6

1.1

92.5

65.8

0

Farm use

Not utilized

Total crop

181.9

11.4

5.2

198.5

91.6

Percent processed

90.9

22.3

24.8

85.3

6]

Apricot Production in Specific

»d Countries,

1945-1958

Country

1945-49

1950-54

1955-58

1,000 fresh tons

California

Other U.S.

204
31

73

63

35

158

183
13

70

84

44

204

174
20

Spain

Iran

France

Other countries *

69

67

52

181

Total

Per cent in California

Per cent in U.S

564

36.1
41.6

598

30.6
32.8

563

30.9

34.4

* Includes all noncommunist countries with significant commercial production. Individually each has
smaller average crops than any of those shown.

scene is indicated by the data summar-
ized in the table above, which represent
the great bulk of the world total apricot
production. During the past 15 years the
state produced about a third; Spain,
France and Iran a third; and the rest of
the world another third.

ACREAGE AND YIELD

Both determinants of production,
acreage and yield, have changed impor-
tantly during past decades. Both will un-
dergo further changes. Major shifts for
the past indicate changes likely in the
future.

Acreage Trends

In 1909 California had 2,992,000 apri-
cot trees. By 1919 the total increased to
4,932,000 (including 3,683,000 of bear-
ing age), on 67,600 acres. Acreage in-
creased to 97,300 in 1926, and then de-
creased, more or less steadily, to an
average of 41,900 in 1955-59— which is
43 per cent of the 1926 peak and about
equal to the 1909 acreage.

Bearing acreage expanded rapidly

during the first quarter of the twentieth
century, reaching a peak of 83,000 in
1928. It decreased to 73,100 in 1939,
49,300 in 1949, and 36,500 in 1959. In
other words, the average annual decrease
was about 1,500 acres during the past
31 years.

Nonbearing acreage remained high
(relative to the total), of course, while
the apricot industry was expanding. It
reached a peak of 30,500 in 1924, four
years prior to the peak in bearing acre-
age, and then declined sharply to 7,300
in 1930-1934 and only 1,450 in 1950-
54. Recent plantings brought nonbear-
ing acreage to 6,100 in 1959.

The large reduction in acreage over
the past three decades raises a question:
Which acreages were eliminated from
production and what new plantings were
made? Shifts in the geographic, varietal,
and age composition of California's apri-
cot acreage are discussed in the next
three sections.

District Pattern

The geographic location of apricot
acreage has shifted. For the period 1921-
59 as a whole, bearing acreage declined

[7]

one-third. It increased sharply in two
areas — 75 and 55 per cent, respectively,
in the West Central Valley and Stockton
districts — and decreased 5 per cent in
the Santa Clara District and 85 per cent
for the remainder of the state. (See figure
1 below) .

As a result, the relative importance
of the districts changed drastically. The
proportion of the state's bearing acreage
in two districts increased fairly steadily
since 1921 — from 37 to 54 per cent for
Santa Clara District and from 9 to 24 per
cent for West Central Valley District.
The Stockton District increased, in rela-
tive importance, at an irregular rate —
from 4 per cent in 1921 to about 9 per
cent for the period 1931-59. For the bal-
ance of the state bearing acreage de-

creased from 50 per cent of the total in
1921 to 12 per cent in 1959.

Commercial acreage in each district
is concentrated within a few counties.
About 62 per cent of the Santa Clara Dis-
trict acreage is in Santa Clara County
and 20 per cent in San Benito. The rela-
tive importance of the other three coun-
ties is 18 per cent compared to 31 per
cent during the mid 1920's.

The county distribution of acreage in
West Central Valley District is: 42 per
cent in Solano, 36 per cent in Contra
Costa, and 22 per cent in Yolo. For
Stockton District 63 per cent of the acre-
age is in Stanislaus and 37 per cent in
San Joaquin.

Merced and Fresno represent 63 per
cent of the South San Joaquin acreage,

100

75

50

25

State Total

Santa Clara Dist.

-,- West Central Dist.

60

40

20

CO

So. San Jooa^ Dis|. __ _

Stockton District

1921 1926 1931 1936

1941

1946 1951

1956 1959

flg. 1. distribution of apricot bearing acreage, by major districts,

1921 to 1959.

[3]

Bearing Acreage of California Apricots, 1936 and 1956

District

Royal

Tilton

Other

All varieties

1936

1956

1936

1956

1936

1956

1936

1956

Santa Clara

30,820
9,480
1,580
4,770

13,240

59,890

21,620

7,410

1,140

810

3,300

34,280

200
1,720
4,190
5,170
1,380

12,660

140
1,400
3,090
1,040

330

6,000

1,880
530
1,270
1,030
1,350

6,060

690

530

50

90

230

1,590

32,900
11,730
7,040
10,970
15,970

78,610

22,450

West Central Valley. .

Stockton

South San Joaquin . . .
Other

State Total

9,340
4,280
1,940
3,860

41,870

Kings 23 per cent, and the other three
counties 14 per cent. Three-quarters of
the acreage in "other areas" is in two
southern counties: Riverside and Ven-
tura.

Varietal Composition

Apricot acreage also changed in vari-
etal composition. Between 1936 and
1959, bearing acreage declined by over
a half: 50 per cent for Royal, 59 per
cent for Tilton, and 82 per cent for other
varieties.

This shift away from minor varieties
was accomplished chiefly by removing
trees of unwanted varieties and planting
new orchards of desired varieties. A va-
riety is "unwanted" or "desired" for
several reasons, technological and eco-
nomic. For example, each variety pro-
duces fruit of a typical size, firmness,
flavor, and eating quality.

However, the consumer's willingness
to pay more for one variety than for
another, because of differences in such
characteristics, is an economic factor.
Each variety typically produces a certain
tonnage per acre depending on, among
other things, tree age and climatic con-
ditions. Its yield is changed by changing
the amount and type of cultural care
given the trees. Both economic and tech-
nical factors should be considered by
the grower in determining the amount of

[

money to be expended for such purposes.
These illustrations indicate that numer-
ous factors should be considered when
decisions are made as to which varieties
are to be removed or planted. The net
effect of the expected influences of these
economic and technological factors de-
termines whether a given variety is un-
wanted or desired at a particular time.

As a result, the relative importance
of the varieties changed since 1936.
Royal increased from 76 to 83 per cent
of the total while Tilton decreased from
16 to 14 per cent and other varieties de-
clined from 8 to 3 per cent. A detailed
comparison on a district basis, for the
period 1936-56, is summarized in the
table above.

Age Distribution

The most noticeable change in the age
composition of apricot trees over the
years is the fluctuation in nonbearing
acreage. The proportion of acreage con-
sisting of nonbearing trees continued
high for many years and then declined
sharply. It averaged 30 per cent in 1920-
24, dropped to 8 per cent in 1930-34,
and decreased further to 6 and 3 per cent
in 1940-44 and 1950-54. Subsequent
plantings raised the figure to 14 per cent
in 1960.

In 1936 just over half (51 per cent)
the bearing acreage consisted of trees 17

9]

years or older. The proportion of such
older trees increased to 80 per cent by
the late 1940's and 85 per cent since
1955.

The age distribution in 1936 and in
1956 is compared on a district basis in
figure 2 below. Important differences
among districts are:

H Nonbearing acreage increased eight-
fold in Stockton District and decreased
by 40 per cent for the remainder of the
state. This district's proportion of the
state total increased from 7 to 51 per
cent since 1936.

fl The proportion of acreage consisting
of young bearing trees (16 years or less
since planting) declined from 26 to 12
percent in the Santa Clara District and
from 60 to 16 per cent for the remainder
of the state.

|| Acreage of older bearing trees located
in West Central Valley and Stockton

Districts increased from 15 to 28 per
cent of the state total, continued at about
58 per cent of Santa Clara District, and
declined from 27 to 14 per cent for other
areas.

Yield Changes

Weather conditions during the bloom-
ing, growing, and harvest season largely
determine the yield for a particular year.
Other forces guide its long-run move-
ment. Shifts in geographic, varietal, and
age composition of the bearing acreage
have an important effect. Cultural prac-
tices alter yield not only for the current
season but over the life of the tree.

Figure 3 shows that yield varies sub-
stantially from year to year. These annual
fluctuations averaged 1.75 tons since
1940, or about 46 per cent of the average
yield (of 3.8 tons per bearing acre) for
the period. The year-to-year change was
2.4 to 3.7 tons in six of the past 20 years,

30

20

CO

LU
Qi
U
<

o 10

o

o

Santa Clara
District

I I Nonbearing Trees

j>QOO\J Young Bearing Trees
[j Old Bearing Trees

Other
Counties

West
Central
District

Stockton
District

;~£

1936 1956 1936 1956 1936 1956 1936 1956

Fie;. 2. ace classification of apricot acreage by major districts.

1936 and 1956.

[10]

1

Annual

1940-59

1

1

Bearing 1

-

**" — r

1 / I V.

cV— V

/ \

r\_ _ \

\7,

1 1 1 1,1

1920-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59

Fig. 3. production, bearing acreage, and yield of California apricots,

1920 to 1959.

1.1 to 2.1 tons in nine years, and below
1.0 tons in only five.

Such wide variations complicate the
problem of marketing apricots. They re-
sult in corresponding annual fluctuations
in production and hence, to a consider-
able extent, in quantities available for
processing since fresh shipments vary
from one season to the next by only half
as much, on a relative basis, as do sales
to processors. (During the past 20 years
annual fluctuations averaged 25 per cent
of average fresh sales and 54 per cent
of average processing sales.)

Yield varied about a level of 2.4 tons
per bearing acre during 1920-29. It in-
creased, more or less steadily, thereafter
to an average of 4.7 tons in 1953-59.

Comparative Yields

Over the years yield in California has
been about one-third lower for apricots
than for other deciduous tree fruits and
for grapes. Fruits, in general, increased
substantially during the past quarter
century. At present, yields are 92 per
cent above the 1920-34 acerage for
apricots compared to increases of 115
per cent for other deciduous tree fruits
and 75 per cent for grapes. Yields since
1920 are compared in the table below.

A comparison of apricot yields for dif-
ferent varieties and producing areas is
not possible because production data are
not published in a form which permits
making such comparisons.

California

Yields for Apricots and Other Fruits

Years

Apricots

Other decidu-
ous tree fruits

Grapes

1920-34

Tons per bearing acre

2.5
3.4
2.7
3.5

4.2
4.8

3.3

4.2
4.5
5.9
6.3
7.2

3.8
4.5
4.8
5.6
5.7
6.7

1935-39

1940-44

1945-49

1950-54

1955-59

11]

Acreage Projections

It is difficult to estimate bearing acre-
age and yield very far into the future.
For the period immediately ahead, how-
ever, a reasonably accurate prediction
can be made. Our guides are recent
plantings still to come into bearing and
probable removal of older or diseased
and weakened trees.

The top table below shows acreage
shifted to bearing and acreage removed
from production for the period since
1919. An average of about 11,400 acres
was removed from production each five

years. This amounts to 17.7 per cent of
the bearing acreage in existence at the
beginning of each period. If this percent-
age rate is continued, about 6,470 acres
will be removed. Since 6,110 of presently
nonbearing trees will begin to bear, there
will be a net decrease of 360 hearing
acres during 1959-64.

Actually, of course, trees may be re-
moved at a different rate. If it is at the
average rate (14.7 per cent) prevailing
since 1954, then bearing acreage will in-
crease 740 acres.

The age distribution data given in the
bottom table below indicates that a

Changes in Bearing Acreage of California Apricots

Period

Beginning
of period

Addition*

Apparent removal

End of
period

acresf

per centt

1919-24

49,200
65,180
82,580
77,610
73,120
66,040
49,840
41,400
36,540

18,400
30,540
10,760
5,690
5,820
3,570
2,470
1,210
6,110

9,397

2,420
13,140
15,730
10,180
12,900
19,770
10,910

6,070

11,390

4.9
20.2
19.0
13.1
17.6
29.9
21.9
14.7

17.7

65,180
82,580
77,610
73,120
66,040
49,840
41,400
36,540

1924-29

1929-34

1934-39

1939-44

1944-49

1949-54

1954-59

1959-64 .

5-year average

* Trees of nonbearing age at beginning of five-year period.

t Difference between beginning bearing acreage plus "addition" (i.e., new bearing acreage) and ending
bearing acreage.

t Per cent of beginning bearing acreage.

Age Distribution of California

Apricot Bearing Acreage

Tree age

1943

1948

1953

1958

5-8

9-13

14-18

19-23

24 and over

::::::::::::::::f

i

Per cent of bearing acreage

7.2

6.8

16.7

69.3

4.7

8.4

7.1

f 16.3

\ 63.5

5.1

6.9
10.0

7.9 \
70.1 /

4.9
5.8

7.4

81.9

[12]

larger proportion of bearing acreage
consisted of trees older than 18 years in
1958 than in 1943, 1948 and 1953. This
suggests that removals probably will not
be lighter than in recent years.

Of course, we don't know how many
acres will be removed from production.
The above information, however, sug-
gests that new acreage coming into bear-
ing during the early 1960's will just
about offset removals. At least, it does
not appear likely that there will be either
a large increase or a large decrease.

Yield Projections

The upward trend in average yield
during the past 25 to 30 years is due to
several factors. Changes in the geo-
graphic and varietal composition of
California's apricot acreage, such as
have taken place, generally represent
shifts to more productive areas and to
more desirable varieties. This tendency
may continue on a long-term basis. But
for the immediate future more produc-
tive varieties are not in sight and recent
plantings have not gone into geographi-
cal favored areas.

Better cultural practices introduced
over the years also serve to raise the
average yield. They will continue to be
used, and even improved further, unless
prices become so depressed as to make
such expenditures excessive. Faced with
a greater price-cost squeeze, growers are
likely to try to lower their production
costs by cutting corners on cultural care
given to orchards. But even if this should
happen, the better care that trees have
already received will have a beneficial
effect, though decreasingly so, on yields
for the immediate future.

In view of these considerations a small
increase in yield (of some 10 per cent
to an average slightly above 5.0 tons per
bearing acre) appears likely for the early
1960's. It could go even higher. But a
sharp increase above the present level is
not expected.

As indicated above the yield for apri-

cots varies greatly from year-to-year be-
cause of the alternate-bearing tendency
of the apricot and for other reasons. Pre-
sumably growers will endeavor to
modify cultural practices, insofar as pos-
sible, to dampen this annual variation
in yield. It is expected, however, that for
the years immediately ahead yield fluctu-
ations will continue at about the present
magnitude.

PRODUCTION AND
UTILIZATION

Changes in production are determined
by changes in acreage and yield. Our
production estimates for the years ahead
are based upon the forecasts of bearing
acreage and yield discussed above.

Production Trends

The average apricot crop doubled dur-
ing the quarter century from 1910-19
to 1935-39 and then declined by a quar-
ter to a level of 185,000 tons maintained
over the past 20 years. Until about 1930
the production increase was due pri-
marily to a rapid acreage expansion, as
shown in figure 3 on page 11. There-
after acreage declined sharply and yield
increased substantially. Since 1940 these
opposite movements in the two determi-
nants have just about offset each other
so that production has not changed much
except for changes from one season to
the next.

Annual fluctuations in production
have been quite large because of con-
siderable variations in yield. During the
past 20 years these short-run changes in
production amounted to 95,000 tons, or
about 50 per cent of the average crop of
187,000 tons.

Production changed from one year to
the next by 135,000 to 245,000 tons in
five years since 1939, by 65,000 to 125,-
000 tons in eight years, and by less than
55,000 tons in seven years.

[13]

Production and Utilization of California Apricots, 1910-

-1959

Produc-
tion
total*

Quantities used for:

Five-year
average

All sales

Fresh marketings

Drying

Canning

Total

Out-of-
state

Intra-
state

Freezing

Tons, fresh weight

1910-14 . . .

113,800

112,500

8,640

3,020

5,620

85,020

18,840

0

1915-19. . .

134,800

133,440

10,560

4,740

5,820

83,040

39,840

0

1920-24 . . .

141,800

140,280

11,440

5,540

5,900

91,860

36,980

0

1925-29 . . .

182,600

180,900

12,300

4,760

7,540

116,640

51,960

0

1930-34 . . .

228,200

221,020

18,620

8,580

10,040

166,080

36,320

0

1935-39 . .

250,600

247,300

18,040

6,440

11,600

170,260

59,000

0

1940-44. . .

181,800

179,080

19,480

6,940

12,540

91,760

63,360

4,480

1945-49.. .

203,600

195,700

22,240

10,100

12,140

74,460

89,620

9,380

1950-54 . . .

182,600

180,900

18,780

8,720

10,060

57,880

101,540

2,700

1955-59 . . .

181,200

179,500

10,900

4,860

6,040

46,500

119,100

3,000

* Difference between total production and all sales consists of small quantities used directly by the farm
household (averaging 1,460 tons per year until 1929 and 1,750 tons thereafter) and quantities not utilized for
the period since 1930.

Production Projections

From the information now available
we conclude that bearing acreage will
not change much in the next few years
while average yield is likely to increase
moderately. Thus, normal crops for the
early 1960's should be above the average
(182,000 tons) for the 1950's but pro-

duction is not expected to be more than
5 to 10 per cent above the current aver-
age. The projection assumes:

II Good cultural practices will continue
in the major producing areas, even if
prices decline.

fl Tree removal will be at or near the rate
prevailing since 1950.

1910-14 1915-19 1920-24 1925-29 1930-34 1935-39 1940-44 1945-49 1950-54

Fig. 4. disposition of apricot sales, 1910 to 1959.
[ 14 I

1955-59

Crop Utilization

Only negligible quantities were not
utilized prior to 1930 and in most sea-
sons thereafter. Such quantities exceeded
4 per cent of the crop during only three
seasons: 1930, 1932, and 1948. Smaller
quantities were left unharvested in four
other seasons. The table on page 14 sum-
marizes data on utilization for the past
50 years.

Until the late 1930's the utilization
pattern remained fairly stable. About 68
per cent of the sales were dried, 24 per
cent were canned, and 8 per cent were
shipped fresh.

Figure 4 on page 14 indicates that
the relative importance of drying and
canning was reversed after 1940. Quan-
tities dried declined rapidly to 26 per
cent of total sales in 1955-59 while can-
ning rose to 66 per cent. This means that
during the past 20 years (when produc-
tion continued at the same average level)
drying decreased from 170,000 tons in
1935-39 to 46,500 tons in 1955-59, while
canning increased from 59,000 to
119,000 tons.

Quantities frozen were appreciable
only during the war period, especially
1944^46 when an average of over 20,000
tons entered this outlet. They averaged
only 2,000 tons in 1947-54 and 3,000 in
1955^59.

Fresh shipments decreased sharply.
Such sales averaged only 10,900 tons
(6.1 per cent of all sales) in 1955-59
compared to 19,400 tons (or 9.5 per
cent) for the 25-year period 1930-54
and a peak of 22,200 tons (11.4 per
cent) in 1945-49.

Some further changes in the utiliza-
tion pattern for apricots appear likely
for the next few years. Canning probably
will expand to at least 70 per cent of all
sales, compared to 40 per cent in 1940-
49 and 61 per cent in 1951-59. It is ex-
pected that the freezing outlet will con-
tinue to take about 3,000 tons per year.
Fresh shipments are not likely to decline
further, but a sharp increase appears un-

likely. If these changes occur, as seems
probable, the use of apricots for drying
will decrease to about 40,000 tons, or 20
per cent of an average crop.

FRESH CONSUMPTION

For the past several decades about
one-tenth of the California apricot crop
has been marketed fresh. Somewhat over
half of this quantity went to local mar-
kets. The following sections briefly de-
scribe some of the methods used in han-
dling apricots for fresh shipments and
discuss the source and destination of
these sales, particularly auction market-
ings, the main outlet for out-of-state fresh
shipments.

Preparation for Market

Apricots intended for fresh use usu-
ally are thinned more severely than those
to be processed, to get a larger propor-
tion of the larger sizes which sell at
premium prices. These apricots are har-
vested at an earlier stage of maturity,
even though the fruit has not yet reached
its best flavor, because the firmer, i.e.,
"greener," apricots hold up better dur-
ing transportation and numerous rehan-
dlings.

Ranch packing has been largely re-
placed by central packing houses, which
are equipped to handle and cool the fruit
rapidly. These plants receive the apricots
from various producers, pack them, as-
semble the cars, and make sales.

For local sales apricots generally are
packed loose in a variety of containers.
The fruit may be shipped without a lid
on the container.

Practically all apricots shipped from
California are packed in lugs with ap-
proximate inside dimensions of 4% x
12% x 16% inches. Usually the fruit is
"face and fill" packed. For this method of
packing the lug is made with the top in
place and the bottom open. The top layer

[15]

or two of fruit is packed in a regular ar-
rangement before the remainder of the
lug is loose filled and the bottom is nailed
on. In the face layers the fruit is placed
in a square pattern for the square pack
and in a diamond pattern for the offset
pack.

The number of apricots per row in the
face layers designates fruit size, with
fractional counts denoting offset packs.
Thus 6-row (or 7-row) means a straight
pack of 6 (or 7) apricots per row while
the 61/^-row count indicates an offset
pack of 6 apricots per row, with a half
space at one end of each row.

Truck shipments to out-of-state mar-
kets have increased considerably since
World War II. The volume moved by

trucks cannot be determined from offi-
cial data because information on this
movement is fragmentary. It is known,
however, that truck shipments have in-
creased considerably and that most of
them are destined for markets located in
western states. The great bulk of the
shipments to more distant markets are
still made by rail. Although some mixed
cars (containing part loads of other
fruits) are loaded, practically all of the
interstate shipments consist of straight
cars.

Criticism has been directed at possible
inefficiencies in the marketing process
and at the large distributive margins in-
volved in moving apricots from the pro-
ducing areas to consuming markets.

40

20

1910-14 1915-19 1920-24 1925-29 1930-34 1935-39 1940-44 1945-49 1950-54 1955-59

Fig. 5. out-of-state and intrastate fresh apricot shipments, 1910 to 1959.

[16]

Little information is available for meas-
uring these margins accurately and for
indicating what economies might be ef-
fected. Although many improvements
have already been introduced, there un-
doubtedly is further need for securing
faster movement, better equipment, and
lower costs.

Fresh Sales

Figure 5 shows the volume of fresh
marketings during the past 50 years.
They indicate clearly that out-of-state and
local sales changed similarly over the
years. Since 1910, the proportion of
fresh marketings sold within the state
generally varied between 50 and 63 per
cent. It exceeded 68 per cent in only six
of the 50 years and was below 50 per cent
in six years.

During this half century fresh sales
increased rapidly to a peak in 1945-49
and then decreased even more sharply

to the present average which is barely
above the 1915-19 level. Intrastate sales
rose from 5,780 tons per year in 1910-
24 to 12,540 tons in 1940-44 before de-
clining to 6,040 in 1955-59. Out-of-state
sales were 4,430 tons in 1910-24, at a
peak of 10,100 in 1945^9, and 4,860
tons in 1955-59.

Because of a rapid population growth,
especially in California, per capita con-
sumption followed a somewhat different
course. It remained almost constant until
World War II and then declined very
sharply. During the interwar period
(1920-39), the typical Calif ornian
bought 3.26 pounds of California fresh
apricots annually, compared to 0.11 for
the remainder of the country. By 1955-
59 per capita consumption decreased by
73 per cent (to 0.87 pounds) in Cali-
fornia and by 44 per cent (to 0.06) in
other states.

These comparisons exclude farm use

100

75

50 -

25-

Contra Costa
Yolo

lllllll

May
21-31

June
1-10

June
11-20

June
21-30

July
1-10

July
11-20

Fig. 6. out-of-state rail passings of fresh California apricots,
by county, ten-day periods, 1955-59 average.

[17]

400

3

en

300

=! 200
<

CO

<

100 -

Others

Washington

California

i v '.■ '.■ '.'*r

May June July Aug.

Fig. 7. monthly carlot apricot shipments, by state, 1955-59 average.

of apricots within the state and the use
of apricots produced in other states.
That is, they merely relate intrastate and
out-of-state fresh sales of California apri-
cots to the population within this state
and in all other states. If the total of
fresh sales and farm use is compared,
the per capita use declined from a peak
of 4.0 pounds in the 1930's to 1.1 in
California and from a peak of 0.42
pounds in 1940-49 to 0.22 in other states.

Out-of-state Shipments

Practically all California apricots
shipped fresh from the state originate
in two counties: Contra Costa and Yolo.
The separation of their shipping seasons
is clearly evident in figure 6 on page
17, which indicates out-of-state rail ship-
ments in 1955-59 by 10-day periods.
Substantial quantities are shipped from
both counties only during mid-June. Al-
most two-thirds of the fresh apricots
from Yolo County are shipped by June
10 before shipments from Contra Costa

begin. The latter county ships 80 per
cent of the apricots after June 20.

California markets its apricots before
shipments from other states become
large. Figure 7 above indicates monthly
movement of carlot shipments for 1955-
59. During May and June, when Califor-
nia ships the bulk of its fresh apricots
(80 to 85 per cent of the season total)
movement from other states is insignifi-
cant. After July 1 about two-thirds of the
apricots come from Washington, 15 per
cent from California, and 18 per cent
from other states.

In other words, California's apricot
industry has a distinct advantage, rela-
tive to other states, in marketing its fruit
for fresh use because its supplies are
marketed before those from other states
arrive. California apricots are also mar-
keted before most other fresh fruits are
sold. Although apricots constitute only
3 per cent of the fresh deciduous tree
fruits shipped from the state, they ac-
count for some 12 per cent of the volume

[18

moved during May-June. The brief sum-
mary in the table below indicates the
importance of apricot shipments for
May-July relative to other fruits in
1950-59.

During June, when most California
apricots move to market, shipments of
cherries and strawberries are past their
peak, plums and melons are in heavy
supply, and most other California de-
ciduous fruits are just beginning to be
shipped. For example, peaches and nec-
tarines reach peak movement in July,
pears and apples in August, and grapes
in September or October.

Auction Marketings

The distribution of sales among indi-
vidual auction markets has not changed
much during the past quarter century.
Since 1935 about 51 per cent of auction
sales were made at New York, 18 at
Chicago, 11 at Philadelphia, and 20 at
the nine other markets. One minor ex-
ception to this distribution pattern oc-
curred. Relative sales declined somewhat
at New York and increased correspond-
ingly at Philadelphia. But this shift
amounted to only 3 percentage points.

The table on top of page 20 indicates
a definite trend toward greater private

transactions in selling apricots. Such
sales expanded from one-fifth to one-third
of out-of-state shipments since 1935-39.
A further shift, though possibly of a
smaller magnitude, appears likely for the
1960's.

Generally the auction price is 6 to 8
per cent higher at New York than at
other markets. Part of this differential
is due to differences in transportation
costs. Differences in the varietal compo-
sition of sales made at the various auc-
tions and in the timing of those sales also
are of considerable importance.

A direct comparison between auction
prices and private-sale prices is not pos-
sible since the latter are not published.
Information secured informally from
California shippers indicates, as would
be expected, that New York auction
prices are a good indicator of the gen-
eral level of wholesale prices on all sales.
Varietal and seasonal price differentials
for private sales are similar to those for
auction sales.

The following discussion refers to New
York auction sales and prices. As indi-
cated, these sales represent over one-third
of interstate shipments and the prices are
reasonably satisfactory for making com-
parisons. Thus New York auction data

Rail Carlot Shipments of Certain California F

ruits, 1950-59

Commodity

1950-54 average

1955-59 average

May

June

July

May

June

July

Apricots

20

302

80

12

434

471

1,517

357

95

0

1,328

3,850

22
191
124

39

223

416

1,386

611

46

0

1,406

3,190

Cherries

Plums

Other deciduous tree fruits

Subtotal

414

20

1,010

666

2,779

630

4,118

286

5,273

1,716

4,978

207

376

60
126
996

2,636

660

2,707

712

4,642

1,895

5,924

483

Grapes

Melons

Strawberries. . . *

Grand total

2,110

7,813

12,174

1,858

6,715

12,944

[19]

Auction Prices and Sales Distribution of California Apricots, 1935-59

Market

1935-39

1940-44

1936-49*

1951-54*

1955-59

New York auction

Auction price — dollars per lug

1.47
1.41

2.55
2.48

2.67
2.59

3.99
3.88

4.45
4.26

Twelve auctions

Auction markets

New York

Sales — 1,000 packages (lugs and other containers)

223.1
79.4
38.3

340.8
85.8

426.6

110.1
536.7

206.6
69.0
39.7

315.3
77.3

392.6

185.7
578.3

259.0
105.1
70.5
434.6
146.3
580.9

219.1

800.0

196.8
88.7
48.6

334.1
76.8

410.9

222.4
633.3

143.7
44.1
32.4

220.2
55.4

275.6

129.4
405.0

Chicago

Philadelphia

Three major markets ....

Nine minor markets

All markets

Private sales f

Interstate shipments!

New York auction

Per cent of interstate shipments

41.6
37.9
20.5

35.7
32.2
32.1

32.4
40.2
27.4

31.1
33.8
35.1

35.5
32.5
32.0

Other auctions

Private sales

fDifference between auction sales and out-of-state shipments.

j Converted from tonnage figures at 83 yi packages (of 24 lbs) per ton.

New York Auction Sales and Prices of California Apricots, 1 940-59

Variety

1940-44

1946-49

1950-54

1955-59

Sales — per cent of season total

Royal

Tilton

66.8

29.9

3.3

60.0

36.6

3.4

63.5

31.9

4.6

60.7
30.2

Other

9.1

Price — per cent of season average

Royal

Tilton

Other

103.3

93.2

120.5

107.3

87.0

153.8

101.9

94.0

128.2

98.7

97.7

123.0

[20

are sufficiently representative of all out-
of-state marketings to indicate satisfac-
torily changes in the varietal composi-
tion of sales, in their seasonal distribu-
tion, and in relative prices for the various
components of sales.

Varietal Composition

The lower table on page 20 presents
varietal sales and prices at New York
auction for the past 20 years. These data,
expressed in percentage terms, are shown
by five-year averages to eliminate annual
fluctuations.

Relative sales of minor varieties ex-
panded considerably since 1940-49 —
from 3 to 9 per cent of the total. Sales
of the two major varieties declined
somewhat — from 64 to 61 per cent for
Royal and from 33 to 30 per cent for
Tilton.

The price premium for Royal, relative
to Tilton, increased during the 1940's
and then decreased. By 1955-59 these
major varieties were selling at about the
same price. Minor varieties sold for sub-
stantially higher prices, especially in
1946-49.

Temporal Distribution

Figure 8 below portrays weekly sales,
by varieties, at the New York auction
market in 1955-59. This distribution is
similar to the pattern during the preced-
ing decade when allowance is made for
the larger marketing season which then
existed.

The extent to which the two major va-
rieties are sold at different periods is
clearly apparent. Only during one week
(the fifth of the season, centered at ap-
proximately July 1) do sales consist of
substantial quantities of both Royal and
Tilton varieties. During earlier weeks
(i.e., the month of June) over 90 per
cent of the sales are Royals while sales
of Tiltons are negligible. After the fifth
week sales are chiefly of the Tilton va-
riety.

PROCESSING USES

The importance of processing outlets
for California apricots is evident in fig-
ure 4 on page 14. For the past 50 years,

4 5

WEEK OF SEASON

Fig. 8. weekly new york auction sales of California apricots,
by variety, 1955-59 average.

[21]

about 90 per cent of total sales have been
made to processors. At present 65 per
cent of the sales are for canning and 25
per cent for drying. This is a reversal of
the situation in previous years — say,
during 1915-29 — when only a quarter
was canned and two-thirds was dried.

Processing Outlets

Each year four millon cases of canned
apricots are produced and the equivalent
of one-quarter million cases is used in
the pack of fruit salad. Thus, about 15
times as many apricots are used for
canned apricots as for fruit salad.

During recent years increasing quan-
tities of cannery apricots have gone for
producing other items. The output of
canned baby foods, of which pureed
apricot is a major item, expanded enor-
mously from its small pack produced in
the early 1940's. At about this same time
the manufacture of apricot nectar was
introduced. It has increased consider-
ably since World War II.

Most dried apricots are sold without
being mixed with other dried fruits.
There is no essential difference in proc-
essing operations between dried apricots
used alone and those to be mixed with
other dried fruit. A substantial portion
of the dried-apricot exports are in fruit
salad. This item is much less important
for domestic sales.

Apricots are also frozen. Freezing was
a significant outlet during the war pe-
riod. More than twice as many apricots
were frozen in the four years, 1943-46,
as in the entire subsequent period. Now
only 3,000 tons, or 1% per cent of the
California crop, enter the freezing outlet.

Canned Pack

Canning of California apricots tripled
during the past quarter century — from
an annual volume of 42,000 tons in
1920-34 to 61,000 tons in 1935^4 and
119,000 tons in 1955-59. The California
pack of canned apricots, however, only
doubled during this period because of

the rapid expansion in the use of can-
nery apricots for other purposes. The
pack averaged 2.3 million cases (equiva-
lent 24 No. 2y2 cans) in 1920-39 and
4.1 millon since 1940.

Annual fluctuations in the pack are
substantial. During the past 20 years
these short-run changes amounted to 2.5
million cases — over 60 per cent of the
average pack — compared to 50 per cent *
fluctuations in production. The year-to-
year changes in the pack exceeded 3 mil-
lion cases in six of the past 20 years,
were 1.5-3 million in eight, and fell be-
low 1.5 million in six.

There has been a substantial change
in the relative use of different container
sizes. The shift toward a much greater
use of smaller containers is shown in
figure 9. In interpreting this information
special attention must be given to 1943-
46. During the war period, the War Pro-
duction Board restricted the use of small 4
containers to conserve critical materials
in short supply. Consequently almost the
entire pack was in No. 2% and No. 10
cans.

Following the war, the pack in No. 10
cans (destined largely for institutional
uses) continued at about the prewar vol-
ume. But as the total pack increased, the
proportion represented by No. 10 de-
clined from one-third to one-fourth of
the total. The pack in No. 2%, although
increased by a third, also declined on a
relative basis — from 45 to 38 per cent.
Packs in smaller containers tripled be-
tween 1933-40 and 1955-58 and in-
creased from 22 to 38 per cent of the
total. No. 2 and No. 1 tall cans, repre-
senting one-sixth of the prewar pack, t
are no longer used. No. 303 and No. 300,
introduced since the war, now account
for almost 30 per cent of the cases
packed. The small 8-oz. can increased
from 5 to 10 per cent of the pack since
1933-36.

California's pack represents the great
bulk of the canned apricots produced in
the country. For the period since 1930,

[22

California packed 97 per cent of the total.
Practically all the remainder is canned
in Washington and Utah, where the pack
exceeds 200,000 cases in only one year
in seven.

The carry-over of California canned
apricots into the new pack year averaged
550,000 cases since 1930 — or about 15
per cent of the annual pack. In five of
these 30 years the carry-over exceeded
1.0 million cases, in five it was less than
150,000. Thus, in two of three years be-

ginning stocks (June 1) ranged from
150,000 to 1,000,000 cases.

Dried Pack

Apricots are dried commercially only
in California. Full-mature fruit is cut
around the suture line, placed cavity up-
ward on a drying tray, sulfured, exposed
to the sun, and then shipped to a dried-
fruit packer. Sulfuring usually takes
only a few hours, say three or four. This
operation hastens the drying process,

1933-36

1937-40

1943-46

1947-50

1951-54

1955-59

1933-36 1937-40 1943-46 1947-50 1951-54 1955-59

Fig. 9. u. s. pack of canned apricots, by can size, 1933 to 1959.

[23]

bleaches the fruit, repells insects, and
retards deterioration. Upon removal
from the sulfur house the fruit on trays
is placed in the dry yard and exposed
to the sun. This exposure, which requires
about one to seven days depending on
temperature and humidity, completes the
grower's operations. The natural condi-
tioned dried apricots, however, must be
processed and packaged before they are
ready for distribution to consumers.

The pack increased from 15,800 dry
tons in 1910-24 to 30,600 in 1930-39,
declined sharply to 15,100 tons during
the 1940's. A further subsequent de-
crease brought the average pack down
to only 8,500 tons in 1955-59— only 27
per cent of the peak volume dried 20
years earlier.

The pack varies considerably from
year to year. These short-run changes
amounted to 7,900 tons during the past
20 years — about 65 per cent of the aver-
age pack. They were under 3,000 tons
in seven years, 4,800 to 7,800 tons in six,
and over 9,000 in seven.

the equivalent per capita figures, cover-
ing the period since 1925 are shown in
the table below.

Domestic shipments of canned apri-
cots (including that portion of fruit salad
consisting of apricots) expanded sharply
20 years ago. They increased 60 per cent
from 2.5 million cases in 1925-39 to 4.0
million in 1940-59. Domestic sales of
dried apricots reached a peak of 17,000
dry tons in the 1930's and then declined
sharply to an average of 7,000 dry tons
in 1955-59.

On a per capita basis annual consump-
tion of canned and dried apricots is 1.2
pounds (fresh-fruit equivalent) — almost
40 per cent below the peak level reached
in 1930-39. Most of this decline is due
to a reduced consumption of dried apri-
cots. Americans now consume an aver-
age of 0.08 pounds per person compared
to 0.27 pounds in 1930-39. Average con-
sumption of canned apricots is 0.57 cans
per person, down 11 per cent from the
peak during the 1940's.

Domestic Use

Exports of processed apricots, al-
though considerably below prewar, are
still substantial. The importance of ex-
port sales is discussed in the next section.
The domestic shipments of California
canned and dried apricots, together with

EXPORTS

Foreign markets have been an impor-
tant outlet for California apricots, espe-
cially during prewar years. They took
about 50 and 20 per cent, respectively,

Domestic Shipments of California Processed Apricots, 1925-59

Item

1925-29

1930-39

1940-49

1950-54

1955-59

Total shipments

Canned* ( 1,000 cases,
No.2H)

2,000
11,840

.40

.20

1.58

2,180

17,020

.41

.27

1.95

3,860
12,130

.62

.17

1.74

3,800
11,700

.58

.12

1.41

3,750

Dried (dry tons, processed) .

Shipments Per Capita

Canned* (cans, No. 2%)

Dried (pounds)

7,010

.53
.08

Total (fresh pounds)

1.15

* Includes an allowance for apricots in fruit salad figured at 25 per cent of the salad pack.

[24]

I-

5

LU

3z

Z

Q

UJ

<

U

-z.
o

<

CO

3
QL

z:

LU
U

a:
uj
a.

15

vv
Vv

\\

-

10

Canned

5

vv

Vv

vs

^

^*S^ Dried

-

Fre

sh

0

1

1

1 1 1

1937-39

1940-44

1945-49

1950-54

1955-58

1937-39 1940-44 1945-49 1950-54

Fig. 10. u. s. apricot exports, 1937 to 1958.

1955-58

of the dried and canned apricots packed
in the 1930's. Exports still are important
to the apricot industry.

Total Exports

Apricot exports averaged some 60,000
tons (fresh-fruit basis) in 1920-29, in-
creased to about 93,000 tons in 1930-39,
and then decreased to 16,000 tons for
1950-58. Their importance declined

[25

from 39 per cent of the crop in 1920-39
to 8 per cent since 1950. This sharp de-
cline in exports (to only one-sixth of the
1930-39 average) was due principally
to reduced shipments of processed apri-
cots.

Figure 10 above shows the major
changes in exports during the past quar-
ter century. Exports of both dried and
canned apricots declined sharply during

]

U. S. Exports cf Canned and Dried Apricots, 1930-59*

Destination

1930-38

1940-44

1946-54

1955-59

United Kingdom

Other Europe

Non-Europe

Tons — fresh fruit equivalent

14,700

63,600

6,600

84,900

19,700
3,300
9,600

900
9,600
5,300

400
7,800
3,900

Total

Shipped to Non-Europe

32,600

15,800

12,100

per cent of total listed

7.8
10.8

29.3
11.4

33.4
26.5

32.1
31.1

Shipped as canned

* Excludes apricot portion in canned and dried fruit salad.

World War II and remained low there- per cent of the total (fresh fruit basis),

after, relative to prewar shipments. Fresh while exports of canned and fresh apri-

apricot exports, however, remained fairly cots increased from 13 to 24 and 2 to

constant, on the average, for the period 11 per cent, respectively,

since 1937. Expressed in per cent, dried- Data on canned and dried apricots

apricot exports decreased from 85 to 65 alone (as summarized in the table above)

Exports of California Dried Apricots, 1925-59

Destination

1925-29

1930-39

1940-44

1945-59

As apricots
United Kingdom

dry tons — processed weight

1,070

5,890

2,170

800

420

1,440

10,340

2,630

770

520

3,380
270
340
550

1,070

50

870
380
450
220

Western Europe*

Other Europe

Canada

Other countries

Subtotal

In dried salad

10,350
500

15,700
870

5,610

110

1,970
330

Total

Shipped to Europe

10,850

16,570

5,720

2,300

per cent

88.2

4.6

47.8

91.8

5.2

48.0

71.1

1.9

32.0

66.0
14.3
20.1

Shipped in salad

Of California pack

* Includes France, Germany, Netherlands and Belgium.

[ 26

indicate that the decline in exports re-
sulted mainly from a loss of the Euro-
pean market. Exports of canned and
dried apricots to Europe are only a tenth
of prewar, while shipments to other
countries declined 40 per cent. Thus ex-
ports to non-European markets rose
from 8 per cent of the total in 1930-39
to 32 per cent since 1940.

Dried-Apricot Exports

Before World War II large quantities
of dried apricots were exported, chiefly
to Western Europe. About 16,600 dry
tons were shipped annually during the
1930's. Three quarters of this quantity
went to five countries (France, Germany,
United Kingdom, Netherlands, and Bel-
gium), 17 per cent to other European
countries, and 8 per cent to non-Euro-
pean markets. Export data appear in the
table on the bottom of page 26.

Since 1945 shipments to Europe have
been small — 9 per cent of prewar. Ex-
ports to other countries also declined,
but only to a half of the 1930-39 aver-
age. Total exports, including dried apri-
cots in fruit salad, remained at about
2,300 dry tons in 1945-59— or only 14

per cent of the average for 1930-39. Ex-
ports declined from half of the prewar
pack to only one-fifth since 1945.

Exports of dried fruit salad also de-
creased, but less sharply. As a result the
proportion of dried-apricot exports rep-
resented in fruit salad rose from 5 per
cent prewar to almost 15 per cent in the
postwar period.

Canned-Apricot Exports

Shipments abroad declined from 690,-
000 cases per year in the late 1920's to
195,000 in 1950-59. Since the domestic
pack expanded considerably during this
period, the relative importance of our
foreign market shrank even more. Ex-
ports decreased from 25 per cent of total
shipments in 1925-29 to 5 per cent since
1950. The table below presents the perti-
nent export data.

United Kingdom has almost disap-
peared as an outlet. This market now
takes only 5,000 cases annually compared
to 530,000 cases in 1925-29. Current
shipments to other countries are 50 per
cent higher than in 1925-29. At present
about 60 per cent of our exports go to
Belgium and Canada; a quarter to the

U. S. Ex

oorts of Co

med Apricots, 1925-59

Destination

1925-29

1930-39

1940-49

1950-54

1955-59

United Kingdom

1,000 cases — basis N

0.2!^

530

*

86
30
33

454

*

59

4
19

125
80
28
18
72

22
60
18
40
16

5

71
74
65
18

Belgium

Other Europe

Canada

Other non-Europe

Total

679

536

323

156

233

Shipped to United Kingdom . . .
Of California shipments

Per cent

78.1
25.3

84.6
19.8

38.9

7.7

14.3
4.0

2.2
5.6

* Included in "other Europe."

[27]

Netherlands, West Germany, Sweden and
Norway; and 15 per cent to other coun-
tries.

Fresh-Apricot Exports

Since 1937, when data were first re-
ported, fresh exports averaged 1,940 tons
per year. The quantity shipped to for-
eign markets varies considerably from
year to year because of large annual
fluctuations in the United States crop. In
about three years during each decade ex-
ports either exceeded 3,000 tons or went
below 1,000. Shipments since 1950 have
been 20 per cent above the average for
1937-49.

These exports are not shipped far. For
example, in 1955-59 about 92 per cent
went to Canada and 7 per cent to Mexico.

RETURNS TO PRODUCER

As used in this circular, "farm price"
refers to the payment received by pro-
ducers for "naked fruit at the first de-
livery point." Such prices have been re-
ported by the California Crop and Live-
stock Reporting Service for each year
since 1909 for the apricots sold in each
utilization outlet and for "all uses."
Other meanings for farm prices may be
used depending upon a varying amount
of "added services" rendered by the pro-
ducer— e.g., for fruit on the tree, for fruit
delivered by the grower to a packing
house or processing plant, for fruit sold
by him to a wholesaler or retailer, etc.

General Level

Fluctuations in farm prices to apricot
producers result mainly from changes in
production and consumer purchasing
power. Both factors have varied widely
in the past. Prices ranged from a low of
$18 per ton in 1932, at the depth of the
depression, to a record high of $157 in
1958, when demand was strong and a
very small crop was produced.

The effect of consumer purchasing
power is shown by noting the general
movement of the average farm prices
during several decades. Prices dropped
sharply from an average of $60 per ton
in 1920-29 to an average of $26 in 1931-
33. They increased, but only gradually,
over the next decade to $56 in 1940-42.
Prices rose immediately to $110 for the
war period (1943^16) and remained at
a slightly higher level ($116) since 1950.

For many fruits year-to-year price
changes are substantial and are defi-
nitely correlated with opposite changes
in annual production. Such does not ap-
pear to be the case with apricots. For
example, since 1943 (when the price
averaged $113 per ton) the price
changed, from one season to the next,
by more than $30 in only two years com-
pared to six variations of $18 to 28 and
eight of $3 to 14. Furthermore, the cor-
relation between price changes and pro-
duction changes is negative, as would be
expected, but it is not very pronounced.
(In statistical terms, the rank correla-
tion is p =-0.44, which indicates that for
this period about one-fifth, p2, the fluc-
tuation in the farm price from year to
year is explainable by annual variations
in production. A considerably higher
value is secured for most fruits.)

Returns by Outlets

Figure 11 indicates the general rela-
tionship among farm prices prevailing
in the various outlets for the past 50
years. There is a definite pattern of rel-
ative prices. Generally farm prices are
highest for out-of-state fresh shipments
and lowest for cannery sales. For fresh
local sales, prices are about 10 per cent
below those received for out-of-state
shipments. On an equivalent fresh basis
dried apricot prices are roughly equal
to those for fresh local sales.

The lower two panels of figure 11 show
that relative prices changed substantially
during the past half century. Relative
prices for cannery apricots declined

[28]

_jq:

-JUJ

"8

2

Q. ■

150

100

50

0
160

140 -

Averages

J L

Annual

Intrastate Fresh

J I I I I I ' ' I

Out-of-state Fresh

150

J I I I I I I 1 L

160

1910-14 1920-24 1930-34 1940-44 1950-54 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958

Fig. 11. grower prices, by type of utilization, 1910 to 1959.

steadily throughout the period — from 11
per cent above the average in 1910-1919
to 14 per cent below since 1950. They
advanced from 95 to 126 per cent of the
average for dried apricots and 100 to
122 per cent for fresh shipments.

Future Returns

If, as indicated above, future produc-
tion continues at about the present level,
there may be a moderate increase in
apricots available for canning since fresh
sales and drying are likely to decrease
still further. If consumer purchasing

power continues to climb at or near the
present rate, demand for apricots in
fresh and processed form will expand.

Under these circumstances farm prices
should increase. In years when bumper
crops are produced, however, grower re-
turns will decline, as they have in the
past.

Farm prices for cannery, dried, and
fresh apricots should continue at about
present relationships. This conclusion is
reached in spite of the fact that the pro-
portions of the crop entering the three
major outlets is expected to change
somewhat.

[29]

•

The tables and charts used in this circular are summaries of more de-
tailed information appearing in "Mimeographed Report No. 223," pub-
lished in December 1959. This report gives sources in detail. It may be
obtained by writing to the Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Eco-
nomics, University of California, at Berkeley or at Davis.

Co-operative Extension work in Agriculture and Home Economics, College of Agriculture, University of California, and United States Department of Agriculture
co-operating. Distributed in furtherance of the Acts of Congress of May 8, and June 30, 1914. George B. Alcorn, Director, California Agricultural Extension Service.

6Jm-l,'61(B5694)JF

31

You*
Consider"^ Future

in Agricultural Economics

Agricultural economics applies SCIENCE to the BUSINESS OF
FARMING ... to the marketing of farm products, to the use of agri-
cultural and range resources.

If agriculture is to continue as an important segment of our na-
tional economy, farmers must be adequately trained in the business
of farming. The University of California's course of study in agricul-
tural economics is a step toward that goal.

The curriculum . . . presented on the Davis campus, places major
emphasis on Farm Management . . . but also provides instruction in
Marketing, Co-operative Marketing. Agricultural Finance, Policy, and
related subjects. Supplementary work may also be taken in such
branches of agriculture as Agronomy, Animal Husbandry, Pomology,
Agricultural Engineering, and the like.

The faculty ... is comprised of trained, experienced economists,
many with national and international reputations in their fields. The
staff is active in service and research work in all of the Western States.

Job opportunities . . . can best be understood by pointing to
positions now occupied by graduates. The largest percentage are
farmers. Other lines of endeavor include:

Farm Managers • Credit work • Farmer Organizations
Marketing Organizations • Agricultural Extension work

State and Federal Departments of Agriculture work
College teaching and research • High school teaching

For more information: Write to the Department of

Agricultural Economics,
University of California, Davis.

or: See your University of California

Farm Advisor for college entrance
requirements.