S Brookst Rob 338*437 A contingent 99242 valuation F2cva assessment of 1992 upland game bird hunting m VAl A JMl A BIOBCOKOMICS STUDY A Contingent Valuation Assessment of Upland Game Bird Hunting Hunter Attitudes and Economic Benefits ■§r«TC DOCUMENTS COLLECTIG. 12 1994 MONTANA STATE LIBRARV 1515 E- ^^ ^*^' HELENA, MONTANA 59620 .-t^i^'-MiKfi^^... Junffii® 1 TialiJWiSdUfe CSl Tkuf^ h f ... :'ij _ -^-»-_- — MONTANA STATE LIBRARY rHI»! P «: fOO* S338.43799242F2c.a ,992c 1 Brooks iiinrii rfiiitm 3 0864 00091533 3 MONTANA BIOECONOMICS STUDY A CONTINGENT VALUATION ASSESSMENT OF UPLAND GAME BIRD HUNTING: HUNTER ATTITUDES AND ECONOMIC BENEFITS Prepared by: Robert Brooks Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks June 1992 Major portions of the funding required to produce the reports in this series were provided by the Federal Aid in Sport Fish Restoration Acts. ortation Food, Drink, Lodging 68 10 22 7 208 130 Equipment for trip, 89 10 19 10 289 100 access/guide fees, etc. Total 243.50 40 66 32 781 430 Average number of days per trip (Mean) Average expenditures per day (Mean) 1.75 $37.71 3.5 $223.14 14 Contingent Valuation Estimates The upland game bird hunter survey asked hunters to provide information on several areas of either their "first" or "last" hunting trip. Two cx)ntingent valuation dichotomous choice questions were asked. The first question asked hunters to value their "first" or "last" trip and was worded: Suppose that everything about this "first" hunt was the same except your trip costs had been Sxxxxx more, would you still have made the trip? A simple yes or no is the only response a hunter can give, very much like the choice he would have in a real market situation. The dollar amount ($xxxx) was varied randomly across surveys and was one of ten predetermined amounts ranging from $5.00 to $1500.00. In addition to the current trip question, a CVM question was asked that presented hunters with hypothetical changes in their trip. They were then asked to value this hypothetical situation. This question is presented below: Imagine that everything about your "first" trip was the same, except that you saw twice as many birds and your trip costs to visit this site increased by Sxxxxx . would you still have made the trip? This question provides insights into bird hunters willingness to pay for improved hunting opportunities. The bid levels presented hunters in this question were the same as for the current trip question. Protest Responses and Outliers There are two types of respondents that answer the contingent valuation questions that should be scrutinized. The first group is those hunters who said they would pay the stated bid amount but would not be able to given their income. Willingness to pay and the ability to pay are both necessary for economic demand analysis. Ability to pay was determined by first calculating the percentage of their income which respondents were willing to spend on upland game bird hunting. This was done in the following manner: Percent = (Expenditures -f- Bid Amount) * Trips Income All respondents with a percent greater than 1 were excluded since this group obviously lacked the ability to pay. The second group of respondents that should be excluded from the analysis are those who 15 "protested" in some way the hypothetical market. The Water Resources Council recommends asking a follow-up question to determine the reasons for "no" responses and decide which ones were protest bids. The upland game bird survey used the same format for this question as earlier surveys, which was: "If no, would you have made the trip if your share of the expenses had been only $1 .00 more?" Following a "no" to this question, the respondent was asked: "If no, could you briefly explain why not?" Valid reasons for saying no included a) could not afford higher trip costs, b) hunter said he would hunt elsewhere if costs increased, c) trip just wouldn't be worth the higher costs. Protest responses included a) hunter saying he/she did not understand the question or b) indicated they opposed increased fees or taxes. A total of twenty eight responses were excluded from the data set due to being protest bids or outliers. Model Specification The estimates of net economic value for an upland game bird hunting trip were determined from the sampled hunters' responses to the contingent valuation questions. The responses were analyzed using a logistic regression model. Duffield and Patterson (1991) provide a comprehensive discussion of the theory and techniques concerning these models. Economic theory suggests that certain variables will influence a hunters response. A bivariate logit model was used in this study that regressed "yes" and "no" responses against bid amount. It is expected that as the bid amount increases, the probability of a "yes" response will drop. The following bivariate model was used in this study: In (P/l-P) = BO - Bl In(Bid) where: P = probability of a "yes" response Bid = increased trip costs respondent was asked to pay The estimated equations are shown in Appendix B. The coefficients for the independent variable In(Bid) had the expected sign (negative) and were significant at the .05 level. These results show the responses are consistent with economic theory and the model used generally provided a good fit to the data. 16 Benefit Estimates The measure of economic benefits (net economic value) used in this study is the truncated mean. The truncation point used is the maximum bid amount utilized - $2000.00 in this study. To estimate this value, the probability of a "yes" response is plotted against the various bid levels. Integrating the area under this curve provides an estimate of the mean. It should be noted that the truncated mean is a conservative estimate of mean willingness to pay since all those having a willingness to pay greater than the truncation point are included at this point. Table 9 presents the current and improved trip values as well as the estimated values for two subsamples (residency and first/last trip) where it was thought that differences might occur. The trip value for nonresidents ($626.00) was significantly higher than residents ($236.(X)). After adjusting these values for the difference in trip length for these two groups, nonresidents' values were still higher than residents, $173. (X) to $130. (X). While there was a difference between first and last hunt values for the current trip they were not notable, especially when comparing the per day values. The comparison of resident/nonresident values across current and improved condition trips showed no difference for resident hunters. Interestingly, nonresidents benefit estimates were less for the improved condition trip that for the current trip. It would seem they felt the current trip was good and there was no room for improvement. The net economic values associated with the improved condition situation for "first" and "last" trips were also lower than the "first" and "last" trip values under current conditions. It would seem upland game bird hunters are satisfied with the numbers of birds they saw on their hunting trips and are not willing to pay more to see more birds than they actually did. 17 Table 9. Upland Game Bird Hunting - Net Economic Values Per Trip and Per Day for Current and Improved Conditions. Model Sample Size Mean Value ($) Per Trip Per Day Current Trip (Entire Sample) 2028 328.77 149.44 Resident Subsample 1534 235.62 130.90 Nonresident Subsample 494 625.69 173.80 "First trip" 1037 356.05 147.13 "Last trip" 991 299.45 155.96 Improved Conditions (Entire Sample) 2012 297.13 135.06 Resident 1525 228.37 126.87 Nonresident 487 498.73 138.54 "First trip" 1033 327.42 135.30 "Last trip" 979 263.26 137.11 18 REFERENCES Bishop, R. C. and T. A. Heberlein (1985). The Contingent Valuation Method. Paper presented at the National Workshop on Non-Market Valuation Methods and Their Use in Environmental Planning, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand, Dec. 2-5. Bureau of Land Management (1982). Final Rangeland Improvement Policy. Instruction Memorandum 83-27. October 15, 1982. Washington, D.C. Dillman, D. (1978). Mail and Telephone Surveys. John Wiley, New York, NY. Duffield, J. W. and S. Allen (1988). Angler Preference Study Final Economics Report: Contingent Valuation of Montana Trout Fishing by River and Angler Subgroup. Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks, Helena. , C. Neher, D. Patterson and S. Allen (1990). Instream Flows in the Missouri River Basin: A Recreation Survey and Economic Study. Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation. Helena, MT. , and D. Patterson (1991). Inference and Optimal Design for a Welfare Measure in Logistic Contingent Valuation. Land Economics 67 (2) (forthcoming. May). Hanemann, W. M. (1984). Welfare evaluations in contingent valuation experiments with discrete responses. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 66:332-341. Just, R. E., D. L. Hueth and A. Schmitz (1982). Applied Welfare Economics and Public Policy. Englewood Cliffs, Prentice Hall, Inc. U. S. Department of Interior (1986). 1986 Natural Resource Damage Assessments: Final Rule. 43 CFR Part 11, Federal Register Vol 58, No. 148, August 1. U. S. Water Resources Council (1983). Economic and Environmental Principles for Water and Related Land Resources Implementation Studies. Washington, D.C: U.S. Government Printing Office. Walsh, R., L. Sanders and J. Loomis (1985). Wild and Scenic River Economics: Recreation Use and Preservation Values. Denver, CO. American Wilderness Alliance. Welsh, M. P. (1986). 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' o o Qj o o o O "O o o_ o_ QJ 5 *-l o" in w 13 m 1- T- g I" O C3 O " o £f o .E Q. •= € 2- — ra — -2 £f o ^ o 5 .2 10 o n ^ a f = - - 3 c .a c •- J= o n H E C . o ■— o J3 = w fo _^ 3 E 3 o t: Q «- ~ nj O TJ "^ JQ " C e> c II v> o «° =: ^ 3 2 v> 5 0> J3 li e> M C V) — o o ^ ^ >''S " Owe " 2 = «a o o o ^ — O C 3 g « o- = 3 — •a o- o 3 SS i«2^ 3 3° O (0 o ^OC C — : o APPENDIX B Estimated Bivariate Logistic Contingent Valuation Equations Model Statistics Likelihood Ratio-Goodness of Fit Test Intercept Log (Bid) Degrees of Freedom Chi Square P Value Current Trip: Current Trip (Entire Sample) 3.50 (17.86) -.7750 (-21.12) 8 18 .0206 Resident 3.37 (15.36) -.8325 (-19.27) 8 20.6 .0082 Nonresident 4.84 (9.31) -.8178 (-9.12) 8 10.71 .2187 "First" trip 3.41 (12.34) -.7406 (-14.46) 8 10.21 .2504 "Last" trip 3.61 (12.99) -.8152 (-15.38) 8 13.68 .0904 Improved Conditions: | Improved Conditions (Entire Sample) 3.35 (18.01) -.7738 (-21.26) 8 17.88 .0222 1 Resident 3.01 (14.65) -.7788 (-18.54) 8 18.74 .0163 Nonresident 6.37 (10.0) -1.128 (-10.27) 8 10.18 .2529 "First" trip 3.76 (13.53) -.8182 (-15.44) 8 18.41 .0184 "T