BUFF wwe ccc cc ccc cece cc cc cc cc ccc cccececcccccececccccccceccccecece C869 CRITICAL TRENDS ASSESSMENT: THE ILLINOIS ENVIRONMENT PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE Illinois Department of Energy and Natural Resources John S. Moore Director UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS LIBRARY AT URBANA - CHAMPAIGN NAT. HIST. SURV. Critical Trends Critical Trends is an environmental initiative that will take a comprehensive look at the state's environment. It will: # assess environmental trends and conditions ¢ graphically illustrate those trends ¢ provide a measure of environmental progress ¢ forecast future conditions under various scenarios # use computer technology to advance environmental and natural resource management into the next century Digitized by the Internet Archive In 2010 with funding from University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign http://www.archive.org/details/criticaltrendsasO0i Integrated Environmental Database The project will develop a database for the Geographic Information System that will: + coordinate large data sets integrate economic, social, and natural resource data present data spatially and over time provide the information needed to make complex decisions allow for regional analyses allow for a statewide exposure assessment based on the spatial relationships of sources, environmental agents, and receptors. The database, which will be GIS-compatible, will be delivered to the participating state agencies. State of the State Report The project will analyze and synthesize the data into a report on the state of the state's environment. The report will: ¢ be written for the general public, in non-technical language ¢ illustrate, with GlIS-generated graphics, complex environmental, economic and social relationships ¢ provide an overview of the state's environment and the impacts on human health, ecological health, and welfare # summarize trends and forecast future conditions based on varying scenarios The Geographic Information System The GIS is a computer technology that has_ three components: the relational database, graphics, and most importantly, the user. With the GIS, users can analyze geographic data and graphically display their findings. The GIS can display: ¢ location -- what is at...? (i.e., place name, street address, zip code, latitude and longitude, etc.) ¢ conditions -- where do they occur? (location where certain features are present and certain criteria are met, such as soils suitable for mining) ¢ trends -- what has changed since...? ¢ patterns -- what spatial patterns exist...? # modeling -- what if...? The GIS and Critical Trends To develop the integrated environmental database and conduct the statewide assessment, GIS professionals will: 1. Build the database a. Design the database b. Input spatial data c. Edit and create topology d. Input attribute data (i.e., water temperature or soil type) 2. Analyze the data (determine relationships, patterns) 3. Present the results of the analysis narratively and graphically = e i ee = > _——s ae 2 "i a Gre viewitenas seylane ody Fe erarams ort rormagi — nee as , a - Source-based Assessment Model The environmental assessment model will be based on a source-agent-receptor flow which will estimate exposure and assess a range of impacts. ¢ The source is the point of origin, such as manufacturing or mining, of an agent. ¢ The agent is an element or action that presents a hazard or ecological stress. 4 V2c ADV ¢ The receptor is the human or ecological unit exposed to the agent. The characteristics of the sources, agents and receptors will be defined during Phase | of the project. The level of detail will depend on the availability of the data. vr yoRIUNI DANI @ uoneeyu] @ so1eM Buu @ uoisiodsigq @ uonendog @ uonniqd @ uoneo0T @ UONSETIP PUM @ uonnquisid @ uonenyul @ UONeNUIIUOD @ proe juow|resop aseo[ol MOURNS @ ounjoA @ ouoTYyoopsAH @ weyY @ Tewuapisoy @ NOLLVZIMELOVUVHO LNdDV AYOOALVO aoOUNOs uonongsep [ewlue 27 Url @ osewep ieiqeH @ uOnNgsIp [Ray @ aan SOdxa WALSASODA JO ATdWVXa Example The GIS will be used to operate the source-based assessment model. For example, to analyze the impacts of coal mining on prime farmland: ¢ the source is mining ¢ the agent is the physical dispersal of soil ¢ the receptor is the land The GIS coverages (topologically linked geographic features and their descriptive data) would be: ¢ the mine locations 4 soil identification and distribution ¢ land cover The final products would pees imeiagoreand an analysis conducted by the user to support the agency’ s decision-making process. ” + es a rants w efoubew; ten aiyaiene ort em a a fiueetaes S 825 7079 fir ; Trends Analysis The GIS, using temporal databases such as state land cover, allows the user to analyze conditions over time (e.g., 1970, 1980, 1990) For example, with satellite imagery it can take current or historical data for a large area and show: + extent and degree of recent development changes in farmland acreages over time forest cover changes loss of natural resources With Census data it can show trends in demographics such as: population nationality housing age intervals A GIS user can display such data to define relationships among the variables. Ss See bs s “ie 7 vs Sa ia -— aetnnc'calm seis ot mie dour yaiaeth naa ky B® Forecasting The Critical Trends project will take the data developed in the trends analysis to forecast future conditions under varying scenarios. Possible variables include: # environmental factors, such as climate scenarios ¢ demographics, such as population growth and distribution, housing and commuting patterns # economics, such as industrial growth, natural resource use, and economic incentives or disincentives ¢ social attitudes and behavior, such as conservation practices and laws and regulations 9 anss| yyjeeaH UeWNH _y— gq anss] yyjeaH uUeWNH _4— VY anss| yyJeaH UeWNH _.— senss| yyjeoH ueWNH 000¢ Jean O661 O86l OZ6L JONIJSUOD SUI] YESH UeWNH —-Eanuorn cmo-so~—->o0 A ih tise} -qerul -— | ene a Sen aus ¢ 2 o*-~=@f Project Team In cooperation with the Governor's Science Advisory Committee (GSAC), the Department of Energy and Natural Resources will be the lead agency for project management and technical analysis. The GSAC will establish and coordinate two committees that will provide broad-based input to the project: ¢ an Advisory Committee will be composed of GSAC members, environmental representatives, technical experts and the public. ¢ an interagency technical committee will be composed of state natural resource agencies and other appropriate agencies. Both committees will review and comment on working papers, the final report and other aspects of the project. 12 Project Management The Department of Energy and Natural Resources will provide project management and technical analysis. Divisions participating in the project include: Office of Research and Planning State Water Survey State Geological Survey Natural History Survey State Museum Hazardous Waste Research and Information Center Technical Assistance will also be provided by state research universities, and by consultants with expertise in computer modeling and human health and ecological impact analysis. 13 Interagency Technical Committee The committee will be composed of a technical representative from each of the following agencies: ¢ Department of Agriculture ¢ Department of Conservation ¢ Emergency Services and Disaster Agency ¢ Department of Energy and Natural Resources ¢ Environmental Protection Agency ¢ Department of Mines and Minerals ¢ Department of Nuclear Safety ¢ Department of Public Health ¢ Department of Transportation ¢ Office of the State Fire Marshall 14 Interagency Committee Responsibilities Initially, the Interagency Technical Committee will review, comment on and refine the Phase | work products. The committee will also: ¢ assist in refining the project work plan ¢ provide technical input + Beart data sharing and evaluation ¢ participate in work group meetings # review and comment on working papers, final report and other aspects of the project Project Work Plan FY '92 & '93 PHASE | ¢ characterize source, agents and receptors ¢ inventory and acquire existing data # review source-based exposure models and forecasting models PHASE Il ¢ evaluate data acquired in Phase | ¢ develop exposure model ¢ develop forecasting model PHASE Ill: ¢ estimate exposure ¢ conduct trend analysis of environmental conditions ¢ forecast environmental scenarios PHASE IV # synthesize data and analyses for final report This project will be co-funded by ENR and USEPA. hors: lanit tot cae lene breeze. at dene al —. * 7 7: — aaah eng | iw oe 953807 Ge AMS ya bennditog Lake County Randbil|! Screening chools & Hospitals Historic Places Committed Dev. Existing Dev. This figure illustrates how a number of physical and cultural site screening criteria were evaluated simultaneously by the Department of Energy and Natural Resources’ Geographic Infor- mation System in order to locate areas of suitabilty for a new regional landfill in Lake County. Siting Criteria were selected by the Lake County Joint Action Solid Waste Planning Agencys and fall into four categories: 1) Natural Features, 2) Cultural Features, 3) Development, and 4) Highway Proximity- In some cases. buffers were constructed around features. The shaded areas in the Composite Map represent areas of potential suitability. None of the features mapped on the left fall within the shaded region of the composite. 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