ECOSYSTEMS © AND HUMAN WELL-BEING Biodiversity Synthesis sy MILLENNIUM ECOSYSTEM ASSESS Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Panel Haron A. Mooney (co-chair), Stanford University, United States ANGELA Cropper (co-chair), The Cropper Foundation, Trinidad and Tobago Doris Capistrano, Center for Inter- national Forestry Research, Indonesia STEPHEN R. CarrenTER, University of Wisconsin-Madison, United States KancuHan Cuopra, Institute of Economic Growth, India Partua Dascurma, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom Rix Leemans, Wageningen University, Netherlands ~ Roserr M. May, University of Oxford, United Kingdom Prasuu Pinca, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Italy Rasuip Hassan, University of Pretoria, South Africa Crist1AN SAMPER, Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, United States Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Board The MA Board represents the users of the findings of the MA process. Co-chairs Rosert T. Watson, Chief Scientist, The World Bank A.H. Zaxrt, Director, Institute of Advanced Studies, United Nations University Institutional Representatives SALVATORE ARICO, Programme Officer, Division of Ecological and Earth Sciences, United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization PETER BRIDGEWATER, Secretary General, Ramsar Convention on Wetlands Hama Arsa DI1ALLo, Executive Secretary, United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification AveEL E.-Bexracy, Director General, International Center for Agricultural Research in Dry Areas, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research Max Fintayson, Chair, Scien- tific and Technical Review Panel, Ramsar Convention on Wetlands Coin GALBRAITH, Chair, Scientific Council, Convention on Migratory Species Erika Harms, Senior Program Officer for Biodiversity, United Nations Foundation Ropert HEpwortn, Acting Executive Secretary, Convention on Migratory Species Oxav Kyorven, Director, Energy and Environment Group, United Nations Development Programme KersTIN LEITNER, Assistant Director-General, Sustainable Development and Healthy Environments, World Health Organization ALFRED OTENG-YEBOAH, Chair, Subsidiary Body on Scientific, Technical and Techno- logical Advice, Convention on Biological Diversity _ Curistian Prip, Chair, idiary Body on Scientific, cal and Technological Ramos, Biodiversity Tuomas Rosswa tt, Executive Director, International Council for Science - ICSU AcHIM STEINER, Director General, IUCN - The World Conservation Union Ha.ipor THoRGEIRSSON, Coordinator, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Kxaus TOpFeErR, Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme Jerr Tscuir ey, Chief, Environmental and Natural Resources Service, Research, Extension and Training Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations RiccaRrDo VALENTINI, Chair, Committee on Science and Technology, United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification HaMDALLAH ZEDAN, Executive Secretary, Convention on Biological Diversity At-large Members FERNANDO ALMEIDA, Executive President, Business Council for Sustainable Development-Brazil PHOEBE BaRNarD, Global Invasive Species Programme, South Africa Gorpana BELTRAM, Undersecretary, Ministry of the Environment and Spatial Planning, Slovenia Detar Brasco, Former Secretary General, Ramsar Con- vention on Wetlands, Spain ANTony Buremans, Chairman, Unilever N.V., Netherlands EsTHER CaMac-RaMIREZ, Asociacion Ixd Ca Vad de Desarrollo e Informacién Indigena, Costa Rica ANGELA CROPPER (ex officio), President, The Cropper Founda- tion, Trinidad and Tobago Partua Daseurta, Professor, Faculty of Economics and Politics, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom José Maria FIcurreEs, Fundacién Costa Rica para el Desarrollo Sostenible, Costa Rica FreD Fortier, Indigenous Peoples’ Biodiversity Information Network, Canada Monwamep H.A. Hassan, Executive Director, Third World Academy of Sciences for the Developing World, Italy JonaTHAN Las, President, World Resources Institute, United States Waneart MaarHal, Vice Minister for Environment, Kenya Paut Maro, Professor, Department of Geography, University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania Haroip A. Mooney (ex officio), Professor, Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University, United States Marina Morovitova, Faculty of Geography, Laboratory of Moscow Region, Russia M.K. Prasap, Environment Centre of the Kerala Sastra Sahitya Parishad, India Watter V. Rep, Director, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, Malaysia and United States Henry Scuacut, Past Chairman of the Board, Lucent Technologies, United States PETER JOHAN SCHEI, Director, The Fridtjof Nansen Institute, Norway IsMAIL SERAGELDIN, President, Bibliotheca Alexandrina, Egypt Davin Suzuki, Chair, David Suzuki Foundation, Canada M.S. SwAMINATHAN, Chairman, MS Swaminathan Research Foundation, India José Gatizta TunpIs1, President, International Institute of Ecology, Brazil AXEL WENBLAD, Vice President Environmental Affairs, Skanska AB, Sweden Xu Guannua, Minister, Ministry ‘of Science and Technology, China MuwHammap Younus, Managing Director, Grameen Bank, Bangladesh QAI. ECOSYSTEMS AND HUMAN WELL-BEING Biodiversity Synthesis A Report of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Synthesis Team Co-chairs ANANTHA Kumar DuralappAH, SHAHID NAEEM Synthesis Team Members Tunp1 Acarpy, Nevitie J. AsH, H. Davip Cooper, Sanpra Diaz, Dante P. FarrH, Georcina Mace, Jerrrey A. McNeety, Haroip A. Mooney, ALFRED A. OTENG-YEBOAH, HENRIQUE MIGUEL PEREIRA, STEPHEN Po.asky, CHRISTIAN Prip, WALTER V. Rep, CrisTiAN SAMPER, PETER JOHAN SCHEI, Rosert SCHOLES, FREDERIK SCHUTYSER, ALBERT VAN JAARSVELD Extended Writing Team MA Coorprnatine Leap AuTHoRs, LEAD AUTHORS, CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS, AND SUB-GLOBAL ASSESSMENT COORDINATORS Review Editors José SaRuKHAN AND ANNE WHYTE (co-cHarRs) AND MA Boarp oF Review Epirors Suggested citation: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Biodiversity Synthesis. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC. Copyright © 2005 World Resources Institute All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the publisher: World Resources Institute, 10 G Street NE, Suite 800, Washington DC, 20002, USA. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data. Ecosystems and human well-being : biodiversity synthesis / Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. p. cm. — (The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment series) ISBN 1-56973-588-3 1. Human ecology. 2. Ecosystem management. 3. Biological diversity. I. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (Program) II. Series. GF50.E28 2005 333.95’ 16--dc22 2005013229 Printed on recycled, acid-free paper &) Book design by Dever Designs Manufactured in the United States of America ss CONTENTS Foreword ii Preface iii Reader's Guide Vv Key Messages vi Summary for Decision-makers 1 Finding 1: Biodiversity Change in the Past and Future 2 Finding 2: Gains and Losses from Biodiversity Change 5 Finding 3: The Value of Biodiversity 6 Finding 4: Causes of Biodiversity Change 8 Finding 5: Actions to Conserve Biodiversity and Promote Sustainable Use 10 Finding 6: Prospects for Significantly Reducing Biodiversity Loss 14 Key Questions on Biodiversity in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 17 1. Biodiversity: What is it, where is it, and why is it important? 18 2. Why is biodiversity loss a concern? 30 3. What are the current trends and drivers of biodiversity loss? 42 4. What is the future for biodiversity and ecosystem services under plausible scenarios? 60 5. What response options can conserve biodiversity and promote human well-being? 69 6. What are the prospects for reducing the rate of loss of biodiversity by 2010 or beyond and what are the implications for the Convention on Biological Diversity? Wal Appendix A. Abbreviations, Acronyms, and Figure Sources 83 Appendix B. Assessment Report Tables of Contents 85 FOREWORD The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment set out to assess the consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being and to establish the scientific basis for actions needed to enhance the conservation and sustainable use of ecosystems and their contributions to human well-being. Biological diversity plays a critical role in underpinning ecosystem ser- vices. Governments supported the establishment of the MA through decisions taken by the Convention on Biological Diversity and other international conventions. The MA was initiated in 2001 under the auspices of the United Nations and governed by a multistakeholder board that included representatives of international institutions, governments, indigenous peoples, NGOs, and business. The secretariat was coordinated by the United Nations Environment Pro- gramme. More than 1,360 scientists from 95 countries contributed to the assessment. This report presents a synthesis and integration of the findings concerning biodiversity contained in the reports of the four MA Working Groups (Condition and Trends, Scenarios, Responses, and Sub-global Assessments). From the outset, the MA was designed to meet the needs of the Convention on Biological Diversity, among other users. The Conference of the Parties welcomed the contribution of the MA to the assessment work of the Convention. It encouraged Parties to participate in the MA and nominated the Chair of the Subsidiary Body on Scientific, Technical, and Technological Advice and the Executive Secretary to be represented on the MA Board. Parties to the CBD have provided review comments on underlying chapters of the assessment as well as this synthesis report. In addition, the penultimate draft of the synthesis report was presented to the tenth meeting of SBSTTA in February 2005, and the comments made there were taken into account in its finalization. As requested by the Conference of the Parties, SBSTTA will consider the final products of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment at its eleventh meeting—including this synthesis report on biodiversity—in order to prepare recommendations to the Conference of the Parties concern- ing the implications of the findings for the future work of the Convention. This report would not have been possible without the extraordinary commitment of the more than 2,000 authors and reviewers worldwide who contributed their knowledge, creativity, time, and enthusiasm to the development of the assessment. We would like to express our gratitude to the Synthesis Team that prepared this report and to the MA Assessment Panel, Coordinating Lead Authors, Lead Authors, Contributing Authors, Board of Review Editors, and Expert Reviewers who contributed to this process, and we wish to acknowledge the in-kind support of their institu- tions, which enabled their participation. We would also like to thank the current and past members of the MA Board (and their alternates), the members of the MA Exploratory Steering Committee, the Convention on Biological Diver- sity secretariat staff, and the MA secretariat staff, interns, and volunteers for their contributions to this process. We are extremely grateful to the donors that provided major financial support for the MA: Global Environment Facility; United Nations Foundation; The David and Lucile Packard Foundation; The World Bank; Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research; United Nations Environment Programme; Government of China; Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Government of Norway; Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; and the Swedish International Biodiversity Programme. The full list of organizations that provided financial support to the MA is available at www. MAweb.org. We hope thar this report will prove useful to all those concerned with the Convention on Biological Diversity and with its objectives—the conservation and sustainable use of biological diversity and the fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising from the use of genetic resources. ESD fibac — A5abathafont 8 : e Dr. Rosert T. WATSON Dr. A.H. Zakri HaMDALLaH ZEDAN MA Board Co-chair MA Board Co-chair Executive Secretary Chief Scientist, The World Bank Director, Institute for Advanced Convention on Biological Studies, United Nations University Diversity tl Ecosystems anp Human WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis PREFACE The goal of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment is to establish the scientific basis for actions needed to enhance the conservation and sustainable use of ecosystems and their contributions to meeting human needs. Because the basis of all ecosystems is a dynamic complex of plants, animals, and microorganisms, biological diversity (or biodiversity, for short) has been a key component of the MA. The MA recognizes that interactions exist between people, biodiversity, and ecosystems. That is, changing human conditions drive, both directly and indirectly, changes in biodiversity, changes in ecosystems, and ultimately changes in the services ecosystems provide. Thus biodiversity and human well- being are inextricably linked. (See Figure A.) The MA also recognizes that many other factors independent of changes in biodiversity affect the human condition and that biodiversity is influenced by many natural forces that are not asso- ciated with humans. . MILLENNIUM EcosysTEM ASSESSMENT CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OF INTERACTIONS BETWEEN Broprversity, EcosysTEM SERVICES, HUMAN WELL-BEING, AND DRIVERS OF CHANGE Changes in drivers that indi- rectly affect biodiversity, such as population, technology, and lifestyle (upper right corner), can lead to changes in drivers directly affecting biodiversity, such as the catch of fish or the application of fertilizers to increase food production (lower right corner). These result in changes to biodiver- sity and to ecosystem ser- vices (lower left corner), thereby affecting human well- being. These interactions can take place at more than one scale and can cross scales. For example, international demand for timber may lead to a regional loss of forest cover, which increases flood magnitude along a local stretch of a river. Similarly, the interactions can take place across different time scales. Actions can be taken either to respond to negative changes or to enhance positive changes at almost all points in this framework. Local scales refer to communities or eco- systems and regional scales refer to nations or biomes, all of which are nested within global scale processes. Human well-being | and poverty reduction BASIC MATERIAL FOR A GOOD LIFE HEALTH GOOD SOCIAL RELATIONS SECURITY FREEDOM OF CHOICE AND ACTION Ecosystem services © PROVISIONING (e.g., food, water, fiber, and fuel) = REGULATING (e.g., climate regulation, water, and disease) © CULTURAL (e.g., spiritual, aesthetic, recreation, and education) © SUPPORTING (e.g., primary production, and soil formation) LIFE ON EARTH - BIODIVERSITY > Cc Strategies and interventions Indirect drivers of change DEMOGRAPHIC ECONOMIC (e.g., globalization, trade, market, and policy framework) SOCIOPOLITICAL (e.g., governance, ES institutional and legal framework) SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CULTURAL AND RELIGIOUS (e.g., beliefs, consumption choices) ~ F Direct drivers of change CHANGES IN LOCAL LAND USE AND COVER SPECIES INTRODUCTION OR REMOVAL TECHNOLOGY ADAPTATION AND USE EXTERNAL INPUTS (e.g., fertilizer use, pest control, and irrigation) HARVEST AND RESOURCE CONSUMPTION CLIMATE CHANGE NATURAL, PHYSICAL, AND BIOLOGICAL DRIVERS (e.g., evolution, volcanoes) Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment EcosysTEMsS AND HUMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis TT} Human well-being is the central focus for the MA, but biodiversity and ecosystems also have intrinsic value. People make decisions concerning ecosystems based on considerations of well-being as well as intrinsic value. A full assessment of the interactions between people and biodiversity requires a multiscale approach, as this better reflects the multiscale nature of decision-making, allows the examination of driving forces from outside particular regions, and provides a means of examining the differential impact of changes in biodiversity, ecosystem services, and policy responses on different regions and groups within regions. The MA thus consists of a global assessment and 33 sub-global assessments. (See Figure B.) 3. MA SuB-GLOBAL ASSESSMENTS Eighteen sub-global assessments were approved as components of the MA. These were not designed to provide a scientific sample of any feature of ecosystems or human well-being. Instead, the choice of assessment locations was determined by a combination of interest in undertaking the assessment, interest in using the findings, and availability of resources to undertake the assessment. These assessments thus were primarily designed to meet needs of decision-makers in the locations where they were made, but they also informed the global MA findings with information and perspectives from the sub-global scale and vice versa. The MA also drew on information from 15 other sub-global assessments affiliated with the MA that met a subset of these criteria or were at earlier stages in development. Alaskan el qe” ” ed gues Boreal Forest , y Sf? ? — S £ 2 u an . a, gg ag i Creal “og ~ “British Columbia au at? SS Newey ristianstad Altai-Sayan wp S OB Canada » 4 ; z 9 Sweden ' Ecoregion (ASER) j 34 om» eo i‘. Northern Lakes «; am id s ee Woe Asia ‘a w Wisconsin al Portugal Sch Zi ( ACAMEN® Western Cl ina (PIMAy@ Sp 2D (MAWEC) > ' eae d Sihai Peninsula Hindu Kush ; ‘ee | a Egypt @) + Himalayas@ ad Himalayas ( d Tafilalt Oasis @ id ia® @ i 1 Bajo Chirtipo — Caribbean Sea Morocco Assir National ey f an ? TEM?” g Laguna Lake Basin Costa Rica ) (CARSEA) Saudi Arabia India Local s- -—¥ 2. A ~~ @ Northern range TFMa SS =e jownstfeam Coffee-growing region @ Trinidad ee : \ Mekang ~ = Colombia ae Se aa TEM? @ ‘we , weaicuites Ty eee, ‘ yy ~~ ; 2 TEMe an) Indonesia @., _ a? o.- Vilcanota region @ 4 yi Wafura ania A a = Rem } Timor Seas Aa Fii® [ y Northern San Pedro de Atacama @ { Sao Paulo Australia Chile Sf Brazil y floodplains a = sy Southern Africa @ Approved assessments Weg * Pampas (SAFMA) ® : = Argentina Associated assessments Y Sf F Oss, Tropical Forest Margins Trade, poverty, and environment: sites in Chile, China, India, Madagascar, Mexico, South Africa, and Viet Nam IV EcosystEMs anD HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis READER’S GUIDE This report synthesizes findings from the MA global and sub-global assessments on biodiversity and human well- being. All of the MA authors and Review Editors have contributed to this draft through their contributions to the underlying assessment chapters on which this material is based. Five additional synthesis reports were prepared for ease of use by other audiences: general overview, UNCCD (desertification), Ramsar Convention (wetlands), business, and the health sector. Each MA sub-global assessment will also produce additional reports to meet the needs of its own audience. The full technical assessment reports of the four MA Working Groups will be published in mid-2005 by Island Press. All printed materials of the assess- ment, along with core data and a glossary of terminology used in the technical reports, will be available on the Internet at www.MAweb.org. Appendix A lists the acronyms and abbreviations used in this report and includes additional information on sources for some of the Figures. Throughout this report, dollar signs indicate U.S. dollars and tons mean metric tons. References that appear in parentheses in the body of this synthesis report are to the underlying chapters in the full technical assessment reports of each Working Group. (A list of the assessment report chapters is provided in Appendix B.) To assist the reader, citations to the technical volumes generally specify sections of chapters or specific Boxes, Tables, or Figures, based on final drafts of the chapter. Some chapter subsection numbers may change during final copyediting, however, after this report has been printed. In this report, the following words have been used where appropriate to indicate judgmental estimates of cer- tainty, based on the collective judgment of the authors, using the observational evidence, modeling results, and theory that they have examined: very certain (98% or greater probability), high certainty (85-98% probability), medium certainty (65-85% probability), low certainty (52-65% probability), and very uncertain (50-52% probability). In other instances, a qualitative scale to gauge the level of scientific understanding is used: well established, established but incomplete, competing explanations, and speculative. Each time these terms are used they appear in italics. Ecosystems AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis V KEY MESSAGES = Biodiversity benefits people through more than just its contribution to material welfare and livelihoods. Biodiversity contributes to security, resiliency, social relations, health, and freedom of choices and actions. = Changes in biodiversity due to human activities were more rapid in the past 50 years than at any time in human history, and the drivers of change that cause biodiversity loss and lead to changes in ecosystem services are either steady, show no evidence of declining over time, or are increasing in intensity. Under the four plausible future scenarios developed by the MA, these rates of change in biodiversity are projected to continue, or to accelerate. = Many people have benefited over the last century from the conversion of natural ecosystems to human-dominated ecosystems and from the exploitation of biodiversity. At the same time, however, these gains have been achieved at growing costs in the form of losses in biodiversity, degradation of many ecosystem services, and the exacerba- tion of poverty for other groups of people. = The most important direct drivers of biodiversity loss and ecosystem service changes are habitat change (such as land use changes, physical modification of rivers or water withdrawal from rivers, loss of coral reefs, and damage to sea floors due to trawling), climate change, invasive alien species, overexploitation, and pollution. = Improved valuation techniques and information on ecosystem services demonstrate that although many individuals benefit from biodiversity loss and ecosystem change, the costs borne by society of such changes are often higher. Even in instances where knowledge of benefits and costs is incomplete, the use of the precautionary approach may be warranted when the costs associated with ecosystem changes may be high or the changes irreversible. B To achieve greater progress toward biodiversity conservation to improve human well-being and reduce poverty, it will be necessary to strengthen response options that are designed with the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity and ecosystem services as the primary goal. These responses will not be sufficient, however, unless the indirect and direct drivers of change are addressed and the enabling conditions for implementation of the full suite of responses are established. = Tiade-offs between achieving the 2015 targets of the Millennium Development Goals and the 2010 target of reducing the rate of biodiversity loss are likely, although there are also many potential synergies between the various internationally agreed targets relating to biodiversity, environmental sustainability, and development. Coordi- nated implementation of these goals and targets would facilitate the consideration of trade-offs and synergies. = An unprecedented effort would be needed to achieve by 2010 a significant reduction in the rate of biodiversity loss at all levels. m= Short-term goals and targets are not sufficient for the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity and ecosystems. Given the characteristic response times for political, socioeconomic, and ecological systems, longer- term goals and targets (such as for 2050) are needed to guide policy and actions. = Improved capability to predict the consequences of changes in drivers for biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and ecosystem services, together with improved measures of biodiversity, would aid decision-making at all levels. = Science can help ensure that decisions are made with the best available information, but ultimately the future of biodiversity will be determined by society. a: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment was carried out between 2001 and 2005 to assess the consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being and to analyze options available to enhance the conservation and sustainable use of ecosystems and their contributions to human well-being. The MA responds to requests for information received through the Convention on Biological Diversity and other international conventions (the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands, and the Conven- tion on Migratory Species) and is also designed to meet the needs of other stakeholders, including business, civil society, and indigenous peoples. It was carried out by approximately 1,360 experts from 95 countries through four Working Groups and encompassed both a global assessment and 33 sub-global assessments. An indepen- dent Review Board has overseen an extensive review by governments and experts. Each Working Group and each sub-global assessment has produced detailed technical assessment reports. This report synthesizes and integrates findings related to bio- logical diversity (or biodiversity, for short) from the four MA Working Groups. Biodiversity is defined by the MA as the vari- ability among living organisms from all sources, including terres- trial, marine, and other aquatic ecosystems and the ecological complexes of which they are part. The material presented in this report and in the full MA is an assessment of the current state of knowledge. The purpose of the assessment is to: B® provide an authoritative source of information, @ mobilize knowledge and information to address specific policy questions, m clarify where there are areas of broad consensus within the scientific community and where important controversies remain, and lf provide insights that emerge from a broad review of knowl- edge that might not be apparent in individual studies. Consistent with the ecosystem approach (see CBD Decision V/6), the MA acknowledges that people are integral parts of ecosystems. That is, a dynamic interaction exists between people and other parts of ecosystems, with the changing human condi- tion serving to drive, both directly and indirectly, change in ecosystems. However, changes in ecosystems cause changes in human well-being. At the same time, many other factors independent of the environment change the human condition, and many natural forces influence ecosystems. The MA places human well-being as the central focus for assessment, while recognizing that biodiversity and ecosystems also have intrinsic value—value of something in and for itself, irrespective of its utility for someone else—and that people make decisions concerning ecosystems based on consideration of their own well-being and that of others as well as on intrinsic value. Biodiversity can be described as “the diversity of life on Earth” and is essential for the functioning of ecosystems that underpin the provisioning of ecosystem services that ultimately affect human well being. Although described simply, in practice what biodiversity encompasses can be complex, and there are concep- tual pitfalls that need to be avoided. (See Box 1.) For example, because biodiversity has many components—including the diver- sity of all organisms, be they plants, animals, or microorganisms, the diversity within and among species and populations, and the diversity of ecosystems—no single component, whether genes, species, or ecosystems, is consistently a good indicator of overall biodiversity, as the components can vary independently. The MA focuses on the linkages between ecosystems and human well-being and in particular on “ecosystem services —the benefits people obtain from ecosystems. These include provision- ing services such as food, water, timber, and fiber; regulating services such as the regulation of climate, floods, disease, wastes, EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 1 Different interpretations of several important attributes of the con- cept of biodiversity can lead to confusion in understanding both sci- entific findings and their policy implications. Specifically, the value of the diversity of genes, species, or ecosystems per se is often confused with the value of a particular component of that diversity. Species diversity in and of itself, for example, is valuable because the presence of a variety of species helps to increase the capabil- ity of an ecosystem to be resilient in the face of a changing envi- ronment. At the same time, an individual component of that diver- sity, such as a particular food plant species, may be valuable as a biological resource. The consequences of changes in biodiversity for people can stem both from a change in the diversity per se and a change in a particular component of biodiversity. Each of these aspects of biodiversity deserves its own attention from decision- makers, and each often requires its own (albeit connected) management goals and policies. Second, because biodiversity refers to diversity at multiple scales of biological organization (genes, populations, species, and ecosystems) and can be considered at any geographic scale (local, regional, or global), it is generally important to specify the specific level of organization and scale of concern. For example, the intro- duction of widespread weedy species to a continent such as Africa will increase the species diversity of Africa (more species present) while decreasing ecosystem diversity globally (since the ecosys- tems in Africa then become more similar in species composition to ecosystems elsewhere due to the presence of the cosmopolitan species). Because of the multiple levels of organization and multiple geographic scales involved, any single indicator, such as species diversity, is generally a poor indicator for many aspects of biodiversity that may be of concern for policy-makers. These two considerations are also helpful in interpreting the meaning of biodiversity “loss.” For the purposes of assessing prog- ress toward the 2010 targets, the Convention on Biological Diver- sity defines biodiversity loss to be “the long-term or permanent qualitative or quantitative reduction in components of biodiversity and their potential to provide goods and services, to be measured at global, regional and national levels” (CBD COP VII/30). Under this definition, biodiversity can be lost either if the diversity per se is reduced (such as through the extinction of some species) or if the potential of the components of diversity to provide a particular service is diminished (such as through unsustainable harvest). The homogenization of biodiversity—that is, the spread of invasive alien species around the world—thus also represents a loss of biodiversity at a global scale (since once-distinct groups of species in different parts of the world become more similar) even though the diversity of species in particular regions may actually increase because of the arrival of new species. eee BIODIVERSITY AND Its Loss— AvoIDING CONCEPTUAL PITFALLS and water quality; cultural services such as recreation, aesthetic enjoyment, and spiritual fulfillment; and supporting services such as soil formation, photosynthesis, and nutrient cycling. The MA assesses the indirect and direct drivers of change in ecosys- tems and their services, the current condition of those services, and how changes in ecosystem services have affected human well- being. It uses a broad definition of human well-being, examining how ecosystem changes influence income and material needs, health, good social relations, security, and freedom of choice and action. The MA developed four global scenarios exploring plausi- ble future changes in drivers, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and human well-being. (See Box 2.) Finally, the assessment examined the strengths and weaknesses of various response options that have been used to manage ecosystem services and identified promising opportunities for enhancing human well-being while conserving ecosystems. What is the problem? Finding #1. Human actions are fundamentally, and to a significant extent irreversibly, changing the diversity of life on Earth, and most of these changes represent a loss of biodi- versity. Changes in important components of biological diversity were more rapid in the past 50 years than at any time in human history. Projections and scenarios indicate that these rates will continue, or accelerate, in the future. Virtually all of Earth’s ecosystems have now been dramatically transformed through human actions. More land was converted to cropland in the 30 years after 1950 than in the 150 years between 1700 and 1850. Between 1960 and 2000, reservoir storage capac- ity quadrupled, and as a result the amount of water stored behind large dams is estimated to be three to six times the amount of water flowing through rivers at any one time. Some 35% of man- groves have been lost in the last two decades in countries where adequate data are available (encompassing about half of the total mangrove area). Already 20% of known coral reefs have been destroyed and another 20% degraded in the last several decades. Although the most rapid changes in ecosystems are now taking place in developing countries, industrial countries historically experienced comparable changes. Over half of the 14 biomes that the MA assessed have experi- enced a 20-50% conversion to human use, with temperate and Mediterranean forests and temperate grasslands being the most affected (approximately three quarters of these biome’s native habitat has been replaced by cultivated lands).' In the last 50 years, rates of conversion have been highest in tropical and sub- tropical dry forests. Globally, the net rate of conversion of some ecosystems has begun to slow, although in some instances this is because little habitat remains for further conversion. Generally, opportunities ' Biomes represent broad habitat and vegetation types, span across biogeographic realms, and are useful units for assessing global biodiversity and ecosystem services because they stratify the globe into ecologically meaningful and contrasting classes. Throughout this report, and elsewhere in the MA, the 14 biomes of the WWF terrestrial biome classification are used, based on WF terrestrial ecoregions (C4.2.2). 2 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis MA ScENARIOS The MA developed four scenarios to explore plausible futures for ecosystems and human well-being based on different assumptions about driving forces of change and their possible interactions: Global Orchestration—This scenario depicts a globally connected society that focuses on global trade and economic liberalization and takes a reactive approach to ecosystem problems but that also takes strong steps to reduce poverty and inequality and to invest in public goods such as infrastructure and education. Economic growth in this scenario is the highest of the four scenarios, while it is assumed to have the lowest population in 2050. Order from Strength—This scenario represents a regionalized and fragmented world, concerned with security and protection, emphasizing primarily regional markets, paying little attention to public goods, and taking a reactive approach to ecosystem prob- lems. Economic growth rates are the lowest of the scenarios (par- ticularly low in developing countries) and decrease with time, while population growth is the highest. Adapting Mosaic—n this scenario, regional watershed-scale eco- systems are the focus of political and economic activity. Local insti- tutions are strengthened and local ecosystem management strate- gies are common; societies develop a strongly proactive approach to the management of ecosystems. Economic growth rates are somewhat low initially but increase with time, and population in 2050 is nearly as high as in Order from Strength. TechnoGarden—This scenario depicts a globally connected world relying strongly on environmentally sound technology, using highly managed, often engineered, ecosystems to deliver ecosys- tem services, and taking a proactive approach to the management of ecosystems in an effort to avoid problems. Economic growth is relatively high and accelerates, while population in 2050 is in the mid-range of the scenarios. The scenarios are not predictions; instead they were devel- oped to explore the unpredictable features of change in drivers and ecosystem services. No scenario represents business as usual, for further expansion of cultivation are diminishing in many regions of the world as the finite proportion of land suitable for intensive agriculture continues to decline. Increased agricul- tural productivity is also diminishing pressures for agricultural expansion. Since 1950, cropland areas in North America, Europe, and China have stabilized, and they even decreased in Europe and China. Cropland areas in the former Soviet Union have decreased since 1960. Within temperate and boreal zones, forest cover increased by approximately 3 million hectares per year in the 1990s, although about 40% of this increase consisted of forest plantations. Across a range of taxonomic groups, the population size or range (or both) of the majority of species is declining. Studies of amphibians globally, African mammals, birds in agricultural lands, British butterflies, Caribbean and IndoPacific corals, and commonly harvested fish species show declines in populations of although all begin from current conditions and trends. Both quantitative models and qualitative analyses were used to develop the scenarios. For some drivers (such as land use change and carbon emissions) and ecosystem services (water withdraw- als, food production), quantitative projections were calculated using established, peer-reviewed global models. Other drivers (such as rates of technological change and economic growth), ecosystem services (particularly supporting and cultural services, such as soil formation and recreational opportunities), and human well-being indi- cators (such as human health and social relations) were estimated qualitatively. In general, the quantitative models used for these sce- narios addressed incremental changes but failed to address thresh- olds, risk of extreme events, or impacts of large, extremely costly, or irreversible changes in ecosystem services. These phenomena were addressed qualitatively by considering the risks and impacts of large but unpredictable ecosystem changes in each scenario. Three of the scenarios—Global Orchestration, Adapting Mosaic, and TechnoGarden—incorporate significant changes in policies aimed at addressing sustainable development challenges. In Global Orchestration trade barriers are eliminated, distorting subsidies are removed, and a major emphasis is placed on eliminating pov- erty and hunger. In Adapting Mosaic, by 2010, most countries are spending close to 13% of their GDP on education (as compared to an average of 3.5% in 2000), and institutional arrangements to pro- mote transfer of skills and knowledge among regional groups prolif- erate. In TechnoGarden policies are put in place to provide payment to individuals and companies that provide or maintain the provision of ecosystem services. For example, in this scenario, by 2015, roughly 50% of European agriculture, and 10% of North American agriculture is aimed at balancing the production of food with the production of other ecosystem services. Under this scenario, sig- nificant advances occur in the development of environmental tech- nologies to increase production of services, create substitutes, and reduce harmful trade-offs. the majority of species. Exceptions include species that have been protected in reserves, that have had their particular threats (such as overexploitation) eliminated, and that tend to thrive in land- scapes that have been modified by human activity. Marine and freshwater ecosystems are relatively less studied than terrestrial systems, so overall biodiversity is poorly understood; for those species that are well studied, biodiversity loss has occurred through population extirpation and constricted distributions. Over the past few hundred years, humans have increased species extinction rates by as much as 1,000 times background rates that were typical over Earth’s history. (See Figure 1.) There are approximately 100 well-documented extinctions of birds, EcosysteMs AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 3 “Distant past’ refers to average extinction rates as calculated from the fossil record. “Recent past” refers to extinction rates calculated from known extinctions of species (lower estimate) or known extinctions plus “possibly extinct” species (upper bound). A species is considered to be “possibly extinct” if it is believed to be extinct by experts but extensive surveys have not yet been undertaken to confirm its disappearance. 100 “Future” extinctions are model- derived estimates using a variety of techniques, including species- 40 area models, rates at which species are shifting to increasingly more threatened categories, extinction probabilities associated with the IUCN categories of threat, impacts of projected habitat loss on species currently threatened with habitat loss, and correlation of species loss with energy consumption. The time frame and species groups involved differ among the “future” estimates, but in general refer to either future loss of species based on the level of threat that exists today or current and future loss of species as a result 100 000 Distant past (fossil record) 10 000 1000 For every thousand mammal species, less than one went extinct every millennium , \ Mammals Marine species 1. Species ExTINcTION Rares (adapted from C4 Fig 4.22) Mammals Birds Amphibians Extinctions per thousand species per millennium “Recent past (known extinctions) Projected future extinction rate is more than ten times higher than current rate Current extinction rate is up to one thousand times higher than the fossil record Long-term average extinction rate All species Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment of habitat changes taking place roughly from 1970 to 2050. Estimates based on the fossil record are low certainty. The lower-bound estimates for known extinctions are high certainty, while the upper-bound estimates are medium certainty; lower-bound estimates for modeled extinctions are low certainty, and upper-bound estimates are speculative. mammals, and amphibians over the last 100 years—a rate 100 times higher than background rates. If less well documented but highly probable extinctions are included, the rate is more than 1,000 times higher than background rates. The distribution of species on Earth is becoming more homogenous. By homogenous, we mean that the differences between the set of species at one location and the set of species at another location are, on average, diminishing. Two factors are responsible for this trend. First, species unique to particular regions are experiencing higher rates of extinction. Second, high rates of invasion by and introductions of species into new ranges are accelerating in pace with growing trade and faster transporta- tion. Currently, documented rates of species introductions in most regions are greater than documented rates of extinction, which can lead to anomalous, often transient increases in local diversity. The consequences of homogenization depend on the aggressiveness of the introduced species and the services they 4 EcosystTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis either bring (such as when introduced for forestry or agriculture) or impair (such as when loss of native species means loss of options and biological insurance). Between 10% and 50% of well-studied higher taxonomic groups (mammals, birds, amphibians, conifers, and cycads) are currently threatened with extinction, based on [UCN—World Conservation Union criteria for threats of extinction. Some 12% of bird species, 23% of mammals, and 25% of conifers are currently threatened with extinction. In addition, 32% of amphibians are threatened with extinction, but information is more limited and this may be an underestimate. Higher levels of threat (52%) have been found in the cycads, a group of evergreen palm-like plants. Aquatic (including both marine and freshwater) organisms, however, have not been tracked to the same degree as terrestrial ones, masking what may be similarly alarming threats of extinction (low certainty). Genetic diversity has declined globally, particularly among domesticated species. Since 1960 there has been a fundamental shift in the pattern of intra-species diversity in farmers’ fields and farming systems as a result of the “Green Revolution.” Intensifi- cation of agricultural systems, coupled with specialization by plant breeders and the harmonizing effects of globalization, has led to a substantial reduction in the genetic diversity of domesti- cated plants and animals in agricultural systems. Such declines in genetic diversity lower the resilience and adaptability of domesti- cated species. Some of these on-farm losses of crop genetic diver- sity have been partially offset by the maintenance of genetic diversity in seed banks. In addition to cultivated systems, the extinction of species and loss of unique populations (including commercially important marine fishes) that has taken place has resulted in the loss of unique genetic diversity contained in those species and populations. This loss reduces overall fitness and adaptive potential, and it limits the prospects for recovery of species whose populations are reduced to low levels. All scenarios explored in the Millennium Ecosystem Assess- ment project continuing rapid conversion of ecosystems in the first half of the twenty-first century. Roughly 10-20% (low to medium certainty) of current grassland and forestland is projected to be converted to other uses between now and 2050, mainly due to the expansion of agriculture and, second, due to the expansion of cities and infrastructure. The habitat losses projected in the MA scenarios will lead to global extinctions as species numbers approach equilibrium with the remnant habitat. The equilibrium number of plant species is projected to be reduced by roughly 10-15% as a result of habitat loss over the period 1970-2050 in the MA scenarios (/ow certainty), but this projection is likely to be an underestimate as it does not consider reductions due to stresses other than habitat loss, such as climate change and pollu- tion. Similarly, modification of river water flows will drive losses of fish species. Why is biodiversity loss a concern? Finding #2. Biodiversity contributes directly (through provisioning, regulating, and cultural ecosystem services)and indirectly (through supporting ecosystem services) to many constituents of human well-being, including security, basic material for a good life, health, good social relations, and freedom of choice and action. Many people have benefited over the last century from the conversion of natural ecosys- tems to human-dominated ecosystems and the exploitation of biodiversity. At the same time, however, these losses in biodiversity and changes in ecosystem services have caused some people to experience declining well-being, with poverty in some social groups being exacerbated. Substantial benefits have been gained from many of the actions that have caused the homogenization or loss of biodiversity. For example, agriculture, fisheries, and forestry—three activities that have placed significant pressures on biodiversity—have often been the mainstay of national development strategies, providing revenues that have enabled investments in industrialization and economic growth. The agricultural labor force currently contains approximately 22% of the world’s population and accounts for 46% of its total labor force. In industrial countries, exploitation of natural resources continues to be important for livelihoods and economies in rural regions. Similarly, many species introduc- tions, which contribute to the homogenization of global biodi- versity, have been intentional because of the benefits the species provide. In other cases, humans have eradicated some harmful components of biodiversity, such as particular disease organisms or pests. Modifications of ecosystems to enhance one service generally have come at a cost to other services due to trade-offs. Only 4 of the 24 ecosystem services examined in this assessment have been enhanced: crops, livestock, aquaculture, and (in recent decades) carbon sequestration. In contrast, 15 other services have been degraded, including capture fisheries, timber production, water supply, waste treatment and detoxification, water purifica- tion, natural hazard protection, regulation of air quality, regula- tion of regional and local climate, regulation of erosion, and many cultural benefits (spiritual, aesthetic, recreational, and oth- ers). The impacts of these trade-offs among ecosystem services affect different people in different ways. For example, an aqua- culture farmer may gain material welfare from management practices that increase soil salinization and thereby reduce rice yields and threaten food security for nearby subsistence farmers. Beneficial changes in ecosystem services have not been equi- tably distributed among people, and many of the costs of changes in biodiversity have historically not been factored into decision-making. Even where the net economic benefits of changes leading to the loss of biodiversity (such as ecosystem simplification) have been positive, many people have often been harmed by such changes. In particular, poor people, particularly those in rural areas in developing countries, are more directly dependent on biodiversity and ecosystem services and more vul- nerable to their degradation. Such biodiversity loss is equivalent to the loss of biological insurance or of alternative biological resources important for maintaining the flow of goods and ser- vices. Richer groups of people are often less affected by the loss of ecosystem services because of their ability to purchase substi- tutes or to offset local losses of ecosystem services by shifting production and harvest to other regions. For example, as fish stocks have been depleted in the north Atlantic, European and other commercial capture fisheries shifted their fishing to West African seas, but this has adversely affected coastal West Africans who rely on fish as a cheap source of protein. Many costs associated with changes in biodiversity may be slow to become apparent, may be apparent only at some dis- tance from where biodiversity was changed, or may involve thresholds or changes in stability that are difficult to measure. For example, there is established but incomplete evidence that reductions in biodiversity reduce ecosystem resilience or the EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 5 ES ability of an ecosystem to recover from a perturbation. But costs associated with such reductions in resilience may not be apparent for years until a significant perturbation is experienced and the lost ability to recover manifests itself. An example of where the effect of a change in biodiversity in one location can have impacts in other locations is the conversion of forest to agricul- ture in one region that affects river flows in downstream areas far removed from the conversion. Threshold effects—abrupt or nonlinear changes or regime shifts in a system in response to a gradual or linear change in single or multiple drivers—have been commonly encountered in aquatic ecosystems and are often associated with changes in biodiversity. For instance, a steady increase in fishing pressure can cause abrupt changes in species populations in coastal ecosystems. An example of a regime shift in response to changes in multiple drivers is the case of tropical coral reefs, where nutri- ent loading, declines in herbivorous fish, and reef degradation collectively trigger shifts to algal-dominated systems. An example of instability caused by a change in biodiversity is that of the introduction of the invasive, carnivorous ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi (a jellyfish-like animal) in the Black Sea, which caused the rapid loss of 26 major fisheries species and has been impli- cated (along with other factors) in the continued growth of the oxygen-deprived “dead” zone. The species was subsequently introduced into the Caspian and Aral Seas, where it is having similar impacts. Biodiversity loss is important in its own right because biodi- versity has cultural values, because many people ascribe intrin- sic value to biodiversity, and because it represents unexplored options for the future (option values). People from all walks of life value biodiversity for spiritual, aesthetic, recreational, and other cultural reasons. Species extinction at the global level is also of particular significance, since such permanent, irreversible losses of species are a loss in the constitutive elements of well- being. Population extirpation and loss of habitat are particularly important at national and local levels, because most ecosystem services are delivered at the local and regional level and strongly depend on the type and relative abundance of species. What is the value of biodiversity? Finding #3. Improved valuation techniques and informa- tion on ecosystem services tells us that although many indi- viduals benefit from the actions and activities that lead to biodiversity loss and ecosystem change, the costs borne by society of such changes is often higher. Even in instances where our knowledge of benefits and costs is incomplete, the use of the precautionary approach may be warranted when the costs associated with ecosystem changes may be high or the changes irreversible. 6 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis In a number of existing studies of changes in economic value associated with changes to biodiversity in specific locations (such as the conversion of mangrove forests, draining of wetlands, and clear-felling of forests), the total economic cost of ecosystem conversion (including both market and nonmarket values of ecosystem services) is found to be significant and to sometimes exceed the benefits of the habitat conversion. Despite this, in a number of these cases conversion was promoted because the cost associated with the loss of ecosystem services was not internal- ized, because the private gains were significant (although less than the public losses), and sometimes also because subsidies distorted the relative costs and benefits. Often, the majority of local inhabitants were disenfranchised by the changes. A country’s ecosystems and its ecosystem services represent a capital asset, but the benefits that could be attained through better management of this asset are poorly reflected in conven- tional economic indicators. A country could cut its forests and deplete its fisheries and this would show only as a positive gain to GDP despite the loss of the capital asset. When the decline in these “natural capital assets” is factored into the measures of national wealth, the estimates of that wealth decline significantly for countries with economies that are especially dependent on natural resources. Some countries that appeared to have positive growth in the 1970s and 1980s, for example, actually experi- enced a net loss of capital assets, effectively undermining the sustainability of any gains they may have achieved. The costs resulting from ecosystem “surprises” can be very high. The United States, for example, spends hundreds of millions of dollars each year controlling alien species that were initially rare and of little consequence but eventually became invasive. Increased insurance premiums for floods, fires, and other extreme events have risen dramatically in recent decades. Changes in ecosystems are sometimes important factors in con- tributing to the increased frequency and severity of the impacts of these extreme events. Such surprises suggest that the precau- tionary principle may apply to conserving biodiversity even where data are insufficient to calculate costs and benefits. The costs and risks associated with biodiversity loss are expected to increase, and to fall disproportionately on the poor. As biodiversity and the provision of some ecosystem services decrease, the marginal value of biodiversity increases. There are also distributional impacts that are not necessarily borne out in economic valuation studies, since the poor have a relatively low “willingness to pay.” Many aspects of biodiversity decline have a disproportionate impact on poor people. The decline in fish pop- ulations, for example, has major implications for artisanal fishers and the communities that depend on fish as an important source of protein. As dryland resources are degraded, it is the poor and vulnerable who suffer the most. Tools now exist for a far more complete computation of the different values people place on biodiversity and ecosystem ser- vices. However, some ecosystem services are more difficult to value, and therefore many decisions continue to be made in the absence of a detailed analysis of the full costs, risks, and benefits. Economists typically seek to identify the various reasons why biodiversity and ecosystems are valuable to people. These include the fact that ecosystems directly or indirectly support people’s own consumption (often referred to as use value) or that they support the consumption of other people or other species (often referred to as non-use value). Various valuation methods are now available to estimate these different sources of value. Despite the existence of these tools, only provisioning ecosystem services are routinely valued. Most supporting, cultural, and reg- ulating services are not valued because the willingness of people to pay for these services—which are not privately owned or traded—cannot be directly observed or measured. In addition, it is recognized by many people that biodiversity has intrinsic value, which cannot be valued in conventional economic terms. There is substantial scope for greater protection of biodiver- sity through actions justified on their economic merits for material or other benefits to human well-being. Conservation of biodiversity is essential as a source of particular biological resources, to maintain different ecosystem services, to maintain the resilience of ecosystems, and to provide options for the future. These benefits that biodiversity provides to people have not been well reflected in decision-making and resource manage- ment, and thus the current rate of loss of biodiversity is higher than it would be had these benefits been taken into account. (See Figure 2.) However, the total amount of biodiversity that would be con- served based strictly on utilitarian considerations is likely to be less than the amount present today (medium certainty). Even if utilitarian benefits, such as those associated with provisioning and regulating ecosystem services, were fully taken into account in decision-making, Earth would still be losing biodiversity. Other utilitarian benefits often “compete” with the benefits of maintaining greater diversity, and on balance the level of diversity that would exist would be less than is present today. 2. How Mucu Biopiversity WILL REMAIN A CENTURY FROM Now UNDER DIFFERENT VALUE FRAMEWORKS? The outer circle in the Figure represents the present level of global biodiversity. Each inner circle represents the level of biodiversity under different value frameworks. Question marks indicate the uncertainties over where the boundaries exist, and therefore the appropriate size of each circle under different value frameworks. Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment e+ Wiith consideration of non-utilitarian values: b Additional amount of biodiversity that should be conserved for non-utilitarian values such as intrinsic values and the equitable distribution of biodiversity. With consideration of resilience, thresholds, and option values: Additional amount of biodiversity that should be conserved for utilitarian reasons because of its role in maintaining capacity to adapt to change, as precaution against thresholds, and for option and existence values. With consideration of the biodiversity role in ecosystem services: Additional amount of biodiversity that should be conserved for utilitarian reasons because of its role in providing and sustaining ecosystem services. Business as usual: _” What will remain under current trends and policies given trade-offs Vy with economic development, agriculture, etc. Please note that the circle sizes are only conceptual and do not correspond to any calculation or estimate. EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 7/ a eee Many of the steps taken to increase the production of ecosystem services (such as agriculture) require the simplification of natural systems, and protecting some other ecosystem services may not necessarily require the conservation of biodiversity (such as tim- ber from monoculture plantation forestry). Ultimately, more bio- diversity will be conserved if ethical, equitable distribution and spiritual concerns are taken into account (the outermost area in Figure 2) than if only the operation of imperfect and incomplete markets is relied on. What are the causes of biodiversity loss, and how are they changing? Finding # 4. The drivers of loss of biodiversity and the drivers of changes in ecosystem services are either steady, show no evidence of declining over time, or are increasing in intensity. In the aggregate and at a global scale, there are five indirect drivers of changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services: demo- graphic, economic, sociopolitical, cultural and religious, and scientific and technological. Although biodiversity and ecosys- tem services experience change due to natural causes, current change is dominated by these anthropogenic indirect drivers. In particular, growing consumption of ecosystem services (as well as the growing use of fossil fuels), which results from growing pop- ulations and growing per capita consumption, leads to increased pressure on ecosystems and biodiversity. Global economic activ- ity increased nearly sevenfold between 1950 and 2000. Under the MA scenarios, per capita GDP is projected to grow by a fac- tor of 1.9 to 4.4 by 2050. Global population doubled in the last 40 years, reaching 6 billion in 2000, and is projected to reach 8.1—9.6 billion by 2050 in the MA scenarios. The many processes of globalization have amplified some driving forces of changes in ecosystem services and attenuated other forces. Over the last 50 years there have been significant changes in sociopolitical drivers, including a declining trend in centralized authoritarian governments and a rise in elected democracies, which allows for new forms of management, in particular adaptive management, of environmental resources. Culture conditions individuals’ perceptions of the world, and— by influencing what they consider important—has implications for conservation and consumer preferences and suggests courses of action that are appropriate and inappropriate. The develop- ment and diffusion of scientific knowledge and technologies can on the one hand allow for increased efficiency in resource use while on the other hand provide the means to increase exploita- tion of resources. The most important direct drivers of biodiversity loss and change in ecosystem services are habitat change—such as land use change, physical modification of rivers or water withdrawal from rivers, loss of coral reefs, and damage to sea floors due to 8 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis trawling—climate change, invasive alien species, overexploita- tion of species, and pollution. For virtually all these drivers, and for most ecosystems where they have been important, the impact of the driver currently remains constant or is growing. (See Fig- ure 3.) Each of these drivers will have important impacts on biodiversity in the twenty-first century: @ Habitat transformation, particularly from conversion to agri- culture. Cultivated systems (areas where at least 30% of the landscape is in croplands, shifting cultivation, confined livestock production, or freshwater aquaculture) now cover one quarter of Earth’s terrestial surface. Under the MA scenarios, a further 10— 20% of grassland and forestland is projected to be converted by 2050 (primarily to agriculture). While the expansion of agricul- ture and its increased productivity is a success story of enhanced production of one key ecosystem service, this success has come at high and growing costs in terms of trade-offs with other ecosystem services, both through the direct impact of land cover change and as a result of release of nutrients into rivers and water withdrawals for irrigation (globally, roughly 15-35% of such irrigation withdrawals are estimated to be unsustainable (low to medium certainty). Habitat loss also occurs in coastal and marine systems, though these transformations are less well documented. Trawling of the seabed, for instance, can significantly reduce the diversity of benthic habitats, while destructive fishing and coastal development can lead to losses of coral reefs. B Overexploitation (especially overfishing). For marine systems, the dominant direct driver of change globally has been overfish- ing. Demand for fish as food for people and as feed for aquacul- ture production is increasing, resulting in increased risk of major, long-lasting collapses of regional marine fisheries. Over much of the world the biomass of fish targeted in fisheries (including that of both the target species and those caught incidentally) has been reduced by 90% relative to levels prior to the onset of industrial fishing. About three quarters (75%) of the world’s commercial marine fisheries are either fully exploited (50%) or overexploited (25%). ® Biotic exchange. The spread of invasive alien species and disease organisms has increased because of increased trade and travel, including tourism. Increased risk of biotic exchange is an inevitable effect of globalization. While increasingly there are measures to control some of the pathways of invasive species— for example, through quarantine measures and new rules on the disposal of ballast water in shipping—several pathways are not adequately regulated, particularly with regard to introductions into freshwater systems. @ Nutrient loading. Since 1950, nutrient loading—anthropo- genic increases in nitrogen, phosphorus, sulfur, and other nutrient-associated pollutants—has emerged as one of the most important drivers of ecosystem change in terrestrial, freshwater, and coastal ecosystems, and this driver is projected to increase substantially in the future (4zgh certainty). For example, synthetic production of nitrogen fertilizer has been a key driver for the remarkable increase in food production during the last 50 years. Humans now produce more reactive (biologically available) nitrogen than is produced by all natural pathways combined. Aerial deposition of reactive nitrogen into natural terrestrial eco- systems, especially temperate grasslands, shrublands, and forests, leads directly to lower plant diversity; excessive levels of reactive nitrogen in water bodies, including rivers and other wetlands, frequently leads to algal blooms and eutrophication in inland waters and coastal areas. Similar problems have resulted from gure 3. Main Direct Drivers phosphorus, the use of which has tripled between 1960 and 1990. Nutrient loading will become an increasingly severe problem, particularly in developing countries and particularly in East and South Asia. Only significant actions to improve the efficiency of nutrient use or the maintenance or restoration of wetlands that buffer nutrient loading will mitigate these trends. The cell color indicates the impact to date of each driver on biodiversity in each biome over the past 50-100 years. The arrows indicate the trend in the impact of the driver on biodiversity. Horizontal arrows indicate a continuation of the current level of impact; diagonal and vertical arrows indicate progressively increasing trends in impact. This Figure is based on expert opinion consistent with and based on the analysis of drivers of change in various chapters of the assessment report of the Condition and Trends Working Group. This Figure presents global impacts and trends that may be different from those in specific regions. Climate Invasive Over- Ganeee change species exploitation phosphorus) Tig ariel Habitat change Boreal 7 Forest Temperate Tropical Temperate grassland Mediterranean Dryland Tropical grassland and savanna Desert Inland water Coastal Marine Island Mountain Polar Se | ed | — — a -] ' be - a ' z 4 i ' _ + 4 Driver’s impact on biodiversity over the last century Low Moderate pera von Very high ae Driver's current trends Decreasing impact ‘Ne Continuing impact | Very rapid increase of the impact [ict Increasing impact Val Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 9 ® Anthropogenic climate change. Observed recent changes in cli- mate, especially warmer regional temperatures, have already had significant impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems, including causing changes in species distributions, population sizes, the timing of reproduction or migration events, and an increase in the frequency of pest and disease outbreaks. Many coral reefs have undergone major, although often partially reversible, bleaching episodes when local sea surface temperatures have increased dur- ing one month by 0.5—1° Celsius above the average of the hottest months. By the end of the twenty-first century, climate change and its impacts may be the dominant direct driver of biodiversity loss and changes in ecosystem services globally. The scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change project an increase in global mean surface tem- perature of 2.0—6.4° Celsius above preindustrial levels by 2100, increased incidence of floods and droughts, and a rise in sea level of an additional 8-88 centimeters between 1990 and 2100. The impact on biodiversity will grow worldwide with both increasing rates of change in climate and increasing absolute change in climate. Although some ecosystem services in some regions may initially be enhanced by projected changes in climate (such as increases in temperature or precipitation), and thus these regions may experience net benefits at low levels of climate change, as climate change becomes more severe the harmful impacts on ecosystem services are likely to outweigh the benefits in most regions of the world. The balance of scientific evidence suggests that there will be a significant net harmful impact on ecosystem services worldwide if global mean surface temperature increases more than 2° Celsius above preindustrial levels or at rates greater than 0.2° Celsius per decade (medium certainty). Climate change is projected to further adversely affect key development challenges, including providing clean water, energy services, and food; maintaining a healthy environment; and con- serving ecological systems and their biodiversity and associated ecological goods and services: @ Climate change is projected to exacerbate the loss of biodi- versity and increase the risk of extinction for many species, especially those already at risk due to factors such as low popu- lation numbers, restricted or patchy habitats, and limited climatic ranges (medium to high certainty). @ Water availability and quality are projected to decrease in many arid and semiarid regions (high certainty). ® The risk of floods and droughts is projected to increase (high certainty). ® The reliability of hydropower and biomass production is projected to decrease in some regions (high certainty). ® The incidence of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue and of waterborne diseases such as cholera is projected to increase in many regions (medium to high certainty), and so too are heat stress mortality and threats of decreased nutrition in other regions, along with severe weather traumatic injury and death (high certainty). 10 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis CO aE ® Agricultural productivity is projected to decrease in the tropics and sub-tropics for almost any amount of warming (low to medium certainty), and there are projected adverse effects on fisheries. ® Projected changes in climate during the twenty-first century are very likely to be without precedent during at least the past 10,000 years and, combined with land use change and the spread of exotic or alien species, are likely to limit both the capability of species to migrate and the ability of species to persist in fragmented habitats. What actions can be taken? Finding # 5. Many of the actions that have been taken to conserve biodiversity and promote its sustainable use have been successful in limiting biodiversity loss and homogeniza- tion to rates lower than they would otherwise have been in the absence of such actions. However, further significant progress will require a portfolio of actions that build on cur- rent initiatives to address important direct and indirect drivers of biodiversity loss and ecosystem service degradation. Less biodiversity would exist today had not communities, NGOs, governments, and, to a growing extent, business and industry taken actions to conserve biodiversity, mitigate its loss, and support its sustainable use. Many traditional cultural prac- tices have served to protect components of biodiversity impor- tant for utilitarian or spiritual reasons. Similarly, a number of community-based resource management programs have slowed the loss of biodiversity while contributing benefits to the people by placing community-level benefits as central objectives for sustainable management. Substantial investments have also been made by NGOs, governments, and the private sector to reduce negative impacts on biodiversity, protect threatened biodiversity, and use biodiversity sustainably. To achieve greater progress toward biodiversity conservation, it will be necessary (but not sufficient) to strengthen response options that are designed with the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity and ecosystem services as the primary goal. Responses with a primary goal of conservation that have been partly successful and could be further strengthened include the following: § Protected areas. Protected areas, including those managed primarily for biodiversity conservation and those managed for a wide range of sustainable uses, are extremely important, espe- cially in environments where biodiversity loss is sensitive to changes in key drivers. PA systems are most successful if they are designed and managed in the context of an ecosystem approach, with due regard to the importance of corridors and interconnec- tivity of PAs and to external threats such as pollution, climate change, and invasive species. At the global and regional scales, however, the current system of protected areas is not sufficient for conservation of all (or even representative) components of biodiversity. PAs need to be better located, designed, and man- aged to deal with problems like lack of representativeness, impacts of human settlement within protected areas, illegal har- vesting of plants and animals, unsustainable tourism, impacts of invasive species, and vulnerability to global change. Marine and freshwater ecosystems are even less well protected than terrestrial ones, although new developments in marine protected areas and PA networks show promise. Marine protected areas often provide striking examples of the potential synergies between conservation and sustainable use, since appropriately placed ones can signifi- cantly increase fishery harvests in adjoining areas. In all cases, better policy and institutional options are needed to promote the fair and equitable sharing of costs and benefits of protected areas at all levels. B Species protection and recovery measures for threatened species. Considerable scope exists to conserve and use biodiversity sus- tainably through more effective management of individual species. Although “habitat-based” approaches to species conser- vation are critical, they are by no means a replacement for “spe- cies-based” approaches, and likewise, species-based approaches are insufficient for habitat conservation. @ Ex situ and in situ conservation of genetic diversity. The bene- fits from ex situ conservation of genetic diversity, such as gene- banks, are substantial. While the technology continues to improve, the major constraint is ensuring that an adequate range of genetic diversity is contained within the ex situ facilities and that these remain in the public domain where, for example, they can serve the needs of poor farmers. In addition, significant ben- efits can be gained through better integration of ex situ and in situ conservation strategies, particularly for species that are difficult to maintain in ex situ facilities. & Ecosystem restoration. Ecosystem restoration activities are now common in many countries and include actions to restore almost all types of ecosystems, including wetlands, forests, grasslands, estuaries, coral reefs, and mangroves. Restoration will become an increasingly important response as more ecosystems become degraded and as demands for their services continue to grow. Ecosystem restoration, however, is generally far costlier than protecting the original ecosystem, and it is rare that all of the biodiversity and services of a system can be restored. Responses with a primary goal of sustainable use that have been partly successful and could be further strengthened include the following: © Payments and markets for biodiversity and ecosystem services. Market mechanisms have helped to conserve some aspects of bio- diversity and to support its sustainable use—for example, in the context of ecotourism. In many countries, tax incentives, ease- ments, tradable development permit programs, and contractual arrangements (such as between upstream landowners and those benefiting from watershed services) are becoming more common and have often been shown to be useful for conserving land and ecosystem services. Between 1996 and 2001, for example, Costa Rica provided $30 million to landowners to establish or protect over 280,000 hectares of forests and their environmental services. Similarly, carbon markets, which offer long-term gains in carbon sequestration, can provide incentives for conservation, especially if designed well such that they do not harm biodiversity conser- vation efforts. While more market-oriented approaches such as these show considerable promise, many challenges remain, such as the difficulty of obtaining the information needed to ensure that the buyers are indeed obtaining the services that they are paying for and the need to establish underlying institutional frameworks required for markets to work and ensure benefits are distributed in an equitable manner. Market reforms can be made to work better, and in a world of decentralized decision-making, improving market mechanisms may be essential to both sustain- able use and conservation. § Incorporating considerations of biodiversity conservation into management practices in sectors such as agriculture, forestry, and Jisheries. Two types of opportunities exist. First, more diverse sys- tems of production can often be as effec- tive as alternative low-diversity systems, or sometimes even more effective. For example, integrated pest management can increase biodiversity on farms, lower costs by reducing the need for pesticides, and meet the growing demand for organic food products. Second, strategies that promote the intensification of production rather than the expansion of the total area of production allow more area for conser- vation, as described later. Agricultural policy reforms in a number of countries are now beginning to take biodiversity into account, but much more can be done to reduce harmful impacts on biodi- versity and ecosystem services. 11 © Capture of benefits by local communities. Response strategies designed to provide incentives for biodiversity conservation by ensuring that local people benefit from one or more components of biodiversity (such as products from single species or from eco- tourism) have proved to be very difficult to implement. They have been most successful when they have simultaneously created incentives for local communities to make management decisions consistent with overall biodiversity conservation. However, while “win-win” opportunities for biodiversity conservation and local community benefits do exist, local communities can often achieve greater economic benefits from actions that lead to biodi- versity loss. More generally, actions to increase income genera- tion from biodiversity can provide incentives for conservation but can also lead to degradation without the appropriate enabling environment, which involves appropriate rights to the resources, access to information, and stakeholder involvement. Integrated responses that address both conservation and sustainable use that could be further strengthened include the following: B® Increased coordination among multilateral environmental agreements and between environmental agreements and other inter- national economic and social institutions. International agreements are indispensable for addressing ecosystem-related concerns that span national boundaries, but numerous obstacles weaken their current effectiveness. The limited, focused nature of the goals and mechanisms included in most bilateral and multilateral envi- ronmental treaties does not address the broader issue of ecosys- tem services and human well-being. Steps are now being taken to increase coordination among these treaties, and this could help broaden the focus of the array of instruments. However, coordi- nation is also needed between the multilateral environmental agreements and the more politically powerful international legal institutions, such as economic and trade agreements, to ensure that they are not acting at cross-purposes. @ Public awareness, communication, and education. Education and communication programs have both informed and changed preferences for biodiversity conservation and have improved implementation of biodiversity responses. Improved communica- tion and education to the public and to decision-makers are essential to achieve the objectives of environmental conventions, sustainable development (including the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation), and sustainable management of natural resources more generally. While the importance of communica- tion and education is well recognized, providing the human and financial resources to undertake effective work is a continuing barrier. @ Enhancement of human and institutional capacity for assessing the consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being and act- ing on such assessments. Yechnical capacity for agriculture, forestry, 12 EcosysTEMS AND HuMan WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis a ee and fisheries management is still limited in many countries, but it is vastly greater than the capacity for effective management for ecosystem services not derived from these sectors. ® Increased integration of sectoral responses. Biodiversity issues in agriculture, fishery, and forestry management in many countries are the responsibility of independent ministries. In order to encourage sustainable use and conservation of biodiversity, these ministries need to establish a process to encourage and foster the development of cross-sectoral policies. Many of the responses designed with the conservation or sus- tainable use of biodiversity as the primary goal will not be sus- tainable or sufficient, however, unless other indirect and direct drivers of change are addressed and enabling conditions are established. For example, the sustainability of protected areas will be severely threatened by human-caused climate change. Similarly, the management of ecosystem services cannot be sus- tainable globally if the growth in consumption of services contin- ues unabated. Responses also need to address the enabling conditions that determine the effectiveness and degree of imple- mentation of the biodiversity-focused actions. In particular, changes in institutional and environmental goy- ernance frameworks are often required to create these enabling conditions. Today’s institutions were not designed to take into account the threats associated with the loss of biodiversity and the degradation of ecosystem services. Nor were they well designed to deal with the management of common pool resources, a characteristic of many ecosystem services. Issues of ownership and access to resources, rights to participation in deci- sion-making, and regulation of particular types of resource use or discharge of wastes can strongly influence the sustainability of ecosystem management and are fundamental determinants of who wins and who loses from changes in ecosystems. Corrup- tion, a major obstacle to effective management of ecosystems, also stems from weak systems of regulation and accountability. In addition, conditionality restrictions by multilateral agencies, such as Structural Adjustment Programs, have also created obstacles to effective ecosystem service management. Responses that address direct and indirect drivers and that seek to establish enabling conditions that would be particularly important for biodiversity and ecosystem services include the following: ® Elimination of subsidies that promote excessive use of ecosystem services (and, where possible, transfer of these subsidies to payments for nonmarketed ecosystem services). Subsidies paid to the agricultural sectors of OECD countries between 2001 and 2003 averaged over $324 billion annually, or one third the global value of agricultural products in 2000. And a significant proportion of this total involved production subsidies that lead to overproduc- tion, reduce the profitability of agriculture in developing coun- tries, and promote overuse of fertilizers and pesticides. Similar problems are created by fishery subsidies, which amounted to approximately $6.2 billion in OECD countries in 2002, or about 20% of the gross value of production. Many countries outside the OECD also have inappropriate input and production subsidies. Although removal of perverse subsidies will produce net bene- fits, it will not be without costs. Some of the people benefiting from production subsidies (through either the low prices of prod- ucts that result from the subsidies or as direct recipients) are poor and would be harmed by their removal. Compensatory mecha- nisms may be needed for these groups. Moreover, removal of agricultural subsidies within the OECD would need to be accompanied by actions designed to minimize adverse impacts on ecosystem services in developing countries. But the basic challenge remains that the current economic system relies funda- mentally on economic growth that disregards its impact on natural resources. & Sustainable intensification of agriculture. The expansion of agriculture will continue to be one of the major drivers of biodi- versity loss well into the twenty-first century. In regions where agricultural expansion continues to be a large threat to biodiver- sity, the development, assessment, and diffusion of technologies that could increase the production of food per unit area sustain- ably, without harmful trade-offs related to excessive consumption of water or use of nutrients or pesticides, would significantly lessen pressure on biodiversity. In many cases, appropriate tech- nologies already exist that could be applied more widely, but countries lack the financial resources and institutional capabili- ties to gain and use these technologies. Where agriculture already dominates landscapes, the maintenance of biodiversity within these areas is an important component of total biodiversity con- servation efforts, and, if managed appropriately, can also contrib- ute to agricultural productivity and sustainability through the ecosystem services that biodiversity provides (such as through pest control, pollination, soil fertility, protection of water courses against soil erosion, and the removal of excessive nutrients). § Slowing and adapting to climate change. Significant reduc- tions in net greenhouse gas emissions are technically feasible due to an extensive array of technologies in the energy supply, energy demand, and waste man- agement sectors. Reducing projected emissions will require the development and implementa- tion of supporting institutions and policies to overcome barriers to the diffusion of these tech- nologies into the marketplace, increased public and private-sector funding for research and development, and effective technology transfer. Given the inertia in the climate system, actions to facilitate the adaptation of biodiversity and ecosystems to climate change will also be neces- sary to mitigate negative impacts. These may include the development of ecological corridors or networks. S = a a S Zz = < food wi - w a = io) = = a= = w co) a oO io ire fo) (S} @ Addressing unsustainable consumption pat- terns. Consumption of ecosystem services and nonrenewable resources affects biodiversity and ecosystems directly and indi- rectly. Total consumption is a factor of per capita consumption, population, and efficiency of resource use. Slowing biodiversity loss requires that the combined effect of these factors be reduced. @ Slowing the global growth in nutrient loading (even while increasing fertilizer application in regions where crop yields are constrained by the lack of fertilizers, such as parts of sub-Saharan Africa). Technologies already exist for reduction of nutrient pol- lution at reasonable costs, but new policies are needed for these tools to be applied on a sufficient scale to slow and ultimately reverse the increase in nutrient loading. § Correction of market failures and internalization of environ- mental externalities that lead to the degradation of ecosystem services. Because many ecosystem services are not formally traded, mar- kets fail to provide appropriate signals that might otherwise con- tribute to the efficient allocation and sustainable use. In addition, many of the harmful trade-offs and costs associated with the management of one ecosystem service are borne by others and so are not weighed in sectoral decisions regarding the management of that service. In countries with supportive institutions in place, market-based tools could be more effectively applied to correct some market failures and internalize externalities, particularly with respect to provisioning ecosystem services. Various eco- nomic instruments or market-based approaches that show prom- ise, in addition to the creation of new markets for ecosystem services and payments for ecosystem services noted earlier, include taxes or user fees for activities with “external costs,” cap- and-trade systems for reduction of pollutants, and mechanisms to allow consumer preferences to be expressed through markets (through certification schemes, for instance). EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 13 eee § Integration of biodiversity conservation and development plan- ning. Protected areas, restoration ecology, and markets for ecosys- tem services will have higher chances of success if these responses are reflected in the national development strategies or in poverty reduction strategies, in the case of many developing countries. At the same time, development plans can be more effective if they take into account existing plans and priorities for the conserva- tion and sustainable use of biodiversity. @ Increased transparency and accountability of government and private-sector performance in decisions that affect ecosystems, includ- ing through greater involvement of concerned stakeholders in dect- sion-making. Laws, policies, institutions, and markets that have been shaped through public participation in decision-making are more likely to be effective and perceived as just. Stakeholder participation also contributes to the decision-making process because it allows for a better understanding of impacts and vul- nerability, the distribution of costs and benefits associated with trade-offs, and the identification of a broader range of response options that are available in a specific context. And stakeholder involvement and transparency of decision-making can increase accountability and reduce corruption. @ Scientific findings and data need to be made available to all of society. A major obstacle for knowing (therefore valuing), preserv- ing, sustainably using, and sharing benefits equitably from the biodiversity of a region is the human and institutional capacity to research a country’s biota. The CONABIO initiative in Mexico and INBio in Costa Rica offer examples of successful national models for converting basic taxonomic information into knowl- edge for biodiversity conservation policies, as well as for other policies relating to ecosystems and biodiversity and for use in education and economic development. Ecosystem approaches, as adopted by the Convention on Biological Diversity and others, provide an important frame- work for assessing biodiversity and ecosystem services and evaluating and implementing potential responses. The CBD refers to the ecosystem approach as a strategy for the integrated management of land, water, and living resources that promotes conservation and sustainable use in an equitable way. Applica- tion of the ecosystem approach involves a focus on the func- tional relationships and processes within ecosystems, attention to the distribution of benefits that flow from ecosystem services, the use of adaptive management practices, the need to carry out management actions at multiple scales, and intersectoral cooperation. A number of other established approaches, such as sustainable forest management, integrated river basin manage- ment, and integrated marine and coastal area management, are consistent with the ecosystem approach and support its applica- tion in various sectors or biomes. 14 EcosysT—EMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis The usefulness of the ecosystem approach is strongly sup- ported by the MA findings since this approach is well suited to the need to take into account the trade-offs that exist in the man- agement of ecosystems and incorporates the need for both coor- dination across sectors and management across scales. The ecosystem approach also provides a framework for designing and implementing the entire range of necessary responses, ranging from those directly addressing the needs for conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity to those necessary to address other indirect and direct drivers that influence ecosystems. What are the prospects for the 2010 target of reducing the rate of biodiversity loss, and what are the implications for the CBD? Finding #6. Unprecedented additional efforts would be needed to achieve, by 2010, a significant reduction in the rate of biodiversity loss at all levels. The magnitude of the challenge of slowing the rate of biodiver- sity loss is demonstrated by the fact that most of the direct drivers of biodiversity loss are projected to either remain con- stant or to increase in the near future. Moreover, inertia in natural and human institutional systems results in time lags—of years, decades, or even centuries—between actions being taken and their impact on biodiversity and ecosystems becoming apparent. The design of future targets, goals, and interventions for the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity will require significant advances in the methods used for measuring biodiversity and consideration of the importance of key drivers, inertia in natural and human institutional systems, and trade-offs and synergies with other societal goals. Several of the 2010 sub-targets adopted by the CBD could be met for some components of biodiversity, or some indica- tors, in some regions. For example, overall the rate of habitat loss—the main driver of species loss in terrestrial ecosystems—is now slowing in certain regions. This may not necessarily trans- late, however, into lower rates of species loss for all taxa because of the nature of the relationship between numbers of species and area of habitat, because decades or centuries may pass before spe- cies extinctions reach equilibrium with habitat loss, and because other drivers of loss, such as climate change, nutrient loading, and invasive species, are projected to increase. While rates of habitat loss are decreasing in temperate areas, they are projected to continue to increase in tropical areas. At the same time, if areas of particular importance for biodiversity are maintained within protected areas or by other conservation mechanisms, and if proactive measures are taken to protect threatened species, then the rate of biodiversity loss of targeted habitats and species could be reduced. Trade-offs and synergies between achieving the 2015 targets of the Millennium Development Goals and the 2010 target of reducing the rate of biodiversity loss make achieving each of ences in inertia among drivers and among different components of biodiversity make it difficult to set goals or targets over a single time frame. For some drivers, such as the overharvest of these targets unlikely if tackled independently, but they may be particular species, lag times are rather short; for others, such as partially achievable if tackled in an integrated manner. Given that biodiversity underpins the provision of ecosystem services, which in turn affects human well-being, long-term sustainable achievement of the MDGs requires that biodiversity loss is controlled as part of MDG 7 (ensuring environmen- tal sustainability). There are potential synergies as well as trade-offs between the shorter-term MDG targets for 2015 and reducing the rate of loss of biodiversity by 2010. For example, improving rural road networks—a common feature of hunger reduction strategies—will likely accelerate rates of biodiversity loss (directly through habi- tat fragmentation and indirectly by facilitating unsustainable harvests of bushmeat and so on). Moreover, the MA scenarios suggest that future development paths that show relatively good progress toward meeting the poverty, hunger reduc- tion, and health targets also show rela- tively high rates of habitat loss and associated loss of species over 50 years. (See Figure 4.) This does not imply that biodiversity loss is, in and of itself, good for poverty reduction. Instead, it indicates that many eco- nomic development activities aimed at income generation are likely to have negative impacts on biodiversity unless the values of biodiversity and related ecosystem services are factored in. For a reduction in the rate of bio- diversity loss to contribute to poverty alleviation, priority would need to be given to protecting the biodiversity that is of particular importance to the well-being of poor and vulnerable people. Efforts toward the 2010 targets will help to achieve MDG 7. Short-term goals and targets are not enough. Given the characteristic response times for human political and socioeconomic systems and eco- logical systems, longer-term goals and targets (such as for 2050) are needed to guide policy and actions. Differ- nutrient loading and climate change, lag times are much longer. Similarly, for some components of biodiversity, such as popula- tions, lag times in the response of populations of many species re 4. TRADE-OFFS BETWEEN BIODIVERSITY AND HUMAN WELL-BEING UNDER THE Four MA ScENarIos Loss of biodiversity is least in the two scenarios that feature a proactive approach to environmental management (TechnoGarden and Adapting Mosaic). The MA scenario with the worst impacts on biodiversity (high rates of habitat loss and species extinction) is also the one with the worst impacts on human well-being (Order from Strength). A scenario with relatively positive implications for human well-being (Global Orchestration) had the second worst implications for biodiversity. Order from Strength Global Orchestration Material Material well-being well-being AM Social Social relations .— ~ Health relations Health : ® | ' ¥ \ P / Y= “Ky oa pear | Freedom Security Freedom Security and choice and choice CO CD SAD TS GR EE EF 27D CRED LAS CIS ED Biodiversity loss # Biodiversity loss 4 Adapting Mosaic TechnoGarden Material Material well-being well-being ihre Social : > Social relations ~~ Health Telations t 4 Health Freedom oy Freadom freedom Securi Securi and choice ty and choice ty ears Cs ee a ee Biodiversity loss @ Biodiversity loss 4 Year Present Year 2050 situation 2050 Decline Improvement | = a 4 Loss of vascular plant species on land Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 15 CO to changes may be measured in years or decades, while for other components, such as the equilibrium number of species, lag times may be measured in hundreds of years. Thus, scenarios with short time frames may not capture the long-term benefits of biodiversity to human well-being. Further, while actions can be taken to reduce the drivers and their impacts on biodiversity, some change is inevitable, and adaptation to such change will become an increasingly important component of response measures. Better prediction of the impacts of drivers on biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and ecosystem services, together with improved measures of biodiversity, would aid decision-making at all levels. Models need to be developed and used to make bet- ter use of observational data for determining the trends and con- ditions of biodiversity. Additional effort is required to reduce critical uncertainties, including those associated with thresholds associated with changes in biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and ecosystem services. Existing biodiversity indicators are help- ing to communicate trends in biodiversity and highlight its importance to human well-being. Additional measures, however, especially those that meet the needs of stakeholders, would assist in communication, setting achievable targets, addressing trade- offs between biodiversity conservation and other objectives, and finding ways to optimize responses. Given the multiple components of and values associated with biodiversity, no single measure is likely to be suitable for all needs. A very wide array of possible futures for biodiversity remains within the control of people and decision-makers today, and these different futures have very different implications for the human well-being of current and future generations. The world in 2100 could have substantial remaining biodiversity or it could be relatively homogenized and contain relatively low levels of diversity. Science can help to inform people about the costs and benefits of these different futures and identify paths to achieve them (plus the risks and thresholds), and where there is insuffi- cient information to predict the consequences of alternative actions, science can identify the range of possible outcomes. Science can thus help to ensure that social decisions are made with the best available information. But ultimately the choice of biodiversity levels must be determined by society. 16 EcosysTEMs AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis | CT ee am ) ( ) | ] I] ) ] 1. Biodiversity: What is it, where is it, and why is it important? 2. Why is biodiversity loss a concern? 3. What are the current trends and drivers of biodiversity loss? 4. What is the future for biodiversity and ecosystem services under plausible scenarios? = 5. What response options can conserve biodiversity and promote human well-being? lm 6. What are the prospects for reducing the rate of loss of biodiversity by 2010 or beyond and what are the implications for the Convention on Biological Diversity? 60 69 77 eee 1. Biodiversity: What is it, where is it, and why is it important? & Biodiversity is the variability among living organisms from all sources, including terrestrial, marine, and other aquatic eco- systems and the ecological complexes of which they are part; this includes diversity within species, between species, and of ecosystems. @ Biodiversity forms the foundation of the vast array of eco- system services that critically contribute to human well-being. ® Biodiversity is important in human-managed as well as natu- ral ecosystems. @ Decisions humans make that influence biodiversity affect the well-being of themselves and others. What Is Biodiversity? Biodiversity is the foundation of ecosystem services to which human well-being is intimately linked. No feature of Earth is more complex, dynamic, and varied than the layer of living organisms that occupy its surfaces and its seas, and no feature is experiencing more dramatic change at the hands of humans than this extraordinary, singularly unique feature of Earth. This layer of living organisms—the biosphere—through the collective meta- bolic activities of its innumerable plants, animals, and microbes physically and chemically unites the atmosphere, geosphere, and hydrosphere into one environmental system within which millions of species, including humans, have thrived. Breathable air, potable water, fertile soils, productive lands, bountiful seas, the equitable climate of Earth’s recent history, and other ecosystem services (see Box 1.1 and Key Question 2) are manifes- tations of the workings of life. It follows that large-scale human influences over this biota have tremendous impacts on human well-being, It also follows that the nature of these impacts, good or bad, is within the power of humans to influence (CF2). Defining Biodiversity Biodiversity is defined as “the variability among living organ- isms from all sources including, inter alia, terrestrial, marine and other aquatic ecosystems and the ecological complexes of which they are part; this includes diversity within species, between species and of ecosystems.” The importance of this definition is that it draws attention to the many dimensions of biodiversity. It explicitly recognizes that every biota can be characterized by its taxonomic, ecological, and genetic diversity and that the way these dimensions of diversity vary over space and time is a key feature of biodiversity. Thus only a multidi- mensional assessment of biodiversity can provide insights into the relationship between changes in biodiversity and changes in ecosystem functioning and ecosystem services (CF2). Biodiversity includes all ecosystems—managed or unmanaged. Sometimes biodiversity is presumed to be a relevant feature of only unmanaged ecosystems, such as wildlands, nature preserves, or national parks. This is incorrect. Managed systems—be they planta- 18 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis tions, farms, croplands, aquaculture sites, rangelands, or even urban parks and urban ecosystems—have their own biodiversity. Given that cultivated systems alone now account for more than 24% of Earth's terrestrial surface, it is critical that any decision concerning biodiversity or ecosystem services address the maintenance of biodi- versity in these largely anthropogenic systems (C26.1). Measuring Biodiversity: Species Richness and Indicators In spite of many tools and data sources, biodiversity remains difficult to quantify precisely. But precise answers are seldom needed to devise an effective understanding of where biodiversity is, how it is changing over space and time, the drivers responsible for such change, the consequences of such change for ecosystem services and human well-being, and the response options avail- able. Ideally, to assess the conditions and trends of biodiversity either globally or sub-globally, it is necessary to measure the abun- dance of all organisms over space and time, using taxonomy (such as the number of species), functional traits (for example, the eco- logical type such as nitrogen-fixing plants like legumes versus non- nitrogen-fixing plants), and the interactions among species that affect their dynamics and function (predation, parasitism, compe- tition, and facilitation such as pollination, for instance, and how strongly such interactions affect ecosystems). Even more important would be to estimate turnover of biodiversity, not just point esti- mates in space or time. Currently, it is not possible to do this with much accuracy because the data are lacking. Even for the taxo- nomic component of biodiversity, where information is the best, considerable uncertainty remains about the true extent and changes in taxonomic diversity (C4). There are many measures of biodiversity; species richness (the number of species in a given area) represents a single but important metric that is valuable as the common currency of the diversity of life—but it must be integrated with other metrics to fully capture biodiversity. Because the multidimensionality of biodiversity poses formidable challenges to its measurement, a variety of surrogate or proxy measures are often used. These include the species richness of specific taxa, the number of distinct plant functional types (such as grasses, forbs, bushes, or trees), or the diversity of distinct gene sequences in a sample of microbial DNA taken from the soil. Species- or other taxon-based measures of biodiversity, however, rarely capture key attributes such as vari- ability, function, quantity, and distribution—all of which provide insight into the roles of biodiversity. (See Box 1.2.) Ecological indicators are scientific constructs that use quanti- tative data to measure aspects of biodiversity, ecosystem condi- tion, services, or drivers of change, but no single ecological indicator captures all the dimensions of biodiversity (C2.2.4). (See Box 1.3.) Ecological indicators form a critical component of monitoring, assessment, and decision-making and are designed to communicate information quickly and easily to policy-makers. In a similar manner, economic indicators such as GDP are highly influential and well understood by decision-makers. Some envi- ronmental indicators, such as global mean temperature and atmo- spheric CO, concentrations, are becoming widely accepted as measures of anthropogenic effects on global climate. Ecological indicators are founded on much the same principles and therefore carry with them similar pros and cons (C2.2.4). (See Box 1.4.) Where Is Biodiversity? Biodiversity is essentially everywhere, ubiquitous on Earth’s surface and in every drop of its bodies of water. The virtual omnipresence of life on Earth is seldom appreciated because most organisms are small (<5 centimeters); their presence is sparse, ephemeral, or cryptic, or, in the case of microbes, they are invisible to the unaided human eye (CF2). Documenting spatial patterns in biodiversity is difficult LINKAGES AMONG BIODIVERSITY, ECOSYSTEM SERVICES, AND HUMAN WELL-BEING because taxonomic, functional, trophic, genetic, and other dimensions of biodiversity have been relatively poorly quanti- fied. Even knowledge of taxonomic diversity, the best known dimension of biodiversity, is incomplete and strongly biased toward the species level, megafauna, temperate systems, and components used by people. (See Figure 1.1.) This results in significant gaps in knowledge, especially regarding the status of tropical systems, marine and freshwater biota, plants, inverte- brates, microorganisms, and subterranean biota. For these rea- sons, estimates of the total number of species on Earth range from 5 million to 30 million. Irrespective of actual global species richness, however, it is clear that the 1.7—2 million species that have been formally identified represent only a small portion of total species richness. More-complete biotic inventories are badly needed to correct for this deficiency (C4). Biodiversity represents the foundation of ecosystems that, through the services they provide, affect human well-being. These include provision- ing services such as food, water, timber, and fiber; regulating services such as the regulation of climate, floods, disease, wastes, and water quality; cultural services such as recreation, aesthetic enjoyment, and spiritual fulfillment; and supporting services such as soil formation, photosynthesis, and nutrient cycling (CF2). The MA considers human well-being to consist of five main components: the basic material needs for a good life, health, good social relations, security, and freedom of choice and action. Human well-being is the result of many factors, many directly or indirectly linked to biodiversity and ecosystem services while others are independent of these. ECOSYSTEM SERVICES Provisioning FOOD FRESH WATER WOOD AND FIBER FUEL Supporting Regulating CLIMATE REGULATION * NUTRIENT CYCLING » SOIL FORMATION FLOOD REGULATION DISEASE REGULATION Soa eerer ool oN WATER PURIFICATION a... Cultural AESTHETIC SPIRITUAL EDUCATIONAL RECREATIONAL LIFE ON EARTH - BIODIVERSITY ARROW’S WIDTH Potential for mediation by _ Intensity of linkages between ecosystem ARROW’S COLOR socioeconomic factors services and human well-being ieee «Low —— Weak G8 Medium =) Medium MS High [J Strong CONSTITUENTS OF WELL-BEING Security PERSONAL SAFETY SECURE RESOURCE ACCESS SECURITY FROM DISASTERS Basic material for good life Freedom ADEQUATE LIVELIHOODS of choice SUFFICIENT NUTRITIOUS FOOD and action SHELTER ACCESS TO GOODS OPPORTUNITY TO BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE WHAT AN INDIVIDUAL VALUES DOING Health AND BEING STRENGTH FEELING WELL ACCESS TO CLEAN AIR AND WATER Good social relations SOCIAL COHESION MUTUAL RESPECT ABILITY TO HELP OTHERS Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 19 Spatial Patterns of Biodiversity: Hotspots, Biomes,' Biogeographic Realms, Ecosystems, and Ecoregions While the data to hand are often insufficient to provide accu- rate pictures of the extent and distribution of all components of biodiversity, there are, nevertheless, many patterns and tools that decision-makers can use to derive useful approximations for both terrestrial and marine ecosystems. North-temperate regions often have usable data on spatial distributions of many taxa, and some groups (such as birds, mammals, reptiles, plants, butterflies, and dragonflies) are reasonably well documented globally. Biogeographic principles (such as gradients in species richness associated with latitude, temperature, salinity, and water depth) or the use of indicators can supplement available biotic inventories. Global and sub-global maps of species richness, sev- Measurements of biodiversity seldom capture all its dimensions, and the most common measure—species richness—is no excep- tion. While this can serve as a valuable surrogate measure for other dimensions that are difficult to quantify, there are several limitations associated with an emphasis on species. First, what constitutes a species is not often well defined. Second, although native species richness and ecosystem functioning correlate well, there is consid- erable variability surrounding this relationship. Third, species may be taxonomically similar (in the same genus) but ecologically quite dis- tinct. Fourth, species vary extraordinarily in abundance; for most bio- logical communities, only a few are dominant, while many are rare. Simply counting the number of species in an ecosystem does not take into consideration how variable each species might be or its contribution to ecosystem properties. For every species, several properties other than its taxonomy are more valuable for assess- ment and monitoring. These properties include measures of genetic and ecological variability, distribution and its role in ecosystem pro- cesses, dynamics, trophic position, and functional traits. In practice, however, variability, dynamics, trophic position, and functional attributes of many species are poorly known. Thus it is both necessary and useful to use surrogate, proxy, or indicator Importance of Variability eral of which are provided in the MA reports Current State and Trends and Scenarios, provide valuable pictures of the distribution of biodiversity (C4, S10). Most macroscopic organisms have small, often clustered geo- graphical ranges, leading to centers of both high diversity and endemism, frequently concentrated in isolated or topographi- cally variable regions (islands, mountains, peninsulas). A large proportion of the world’s terrestrial biodiversity at the species level is concentrated in a small part of the world, mostly in the tropics. Even among the larger and more mobile species, such as terrestrial vertebrates, more than one third of all species have ranges of less than 1,000 square kilometers. In contrast, local and regional diversity of microorganisms tends to be more similar to large-scale and global diversity because of their large population Box 1.2. MEASURING AND EstimaTING BiopiIversiITy: MoRE THAN SPECIES RICHNESS measures based on the taxonomy or genetic information. Important attributes missed by species or taxon-based measures of diversity include: @ abundance—how much there is of any one type. For many pro- visioning services (such as food, fresh water, fiber), abundance mat- ters more than the presence of a range of genetic varieties, species, or ecosystem types. @ variation—the number of different types over space and time. For understanding population persistence, the number of different varieties or races in a species or variation in genetic composition among individuals in a population provide more insight than species richness. w distribution—where quantity or variation in biodiversity occurs. For many purposes, distribution and quantity are closely related and are therefore generally treated together under the heading of quan- tity. However, quantity may not always be sufficient for services: the location, and in particular its availability to the people that need it, will frequently be more critical than the absolute volume or biomass of a component of biodiversity. Finally, the importance of variability and quantity varies, depending on the level of biodiversity measured. (See Table.) Importance of Quantity and Distribution local resistance and resilience local provisioning and regulating services, food, fresh water community and ecosystem interactions are enabled through the co-occurrence of species Genes adaptive variability for production and resilience to environmental change, pathogens, and so on Populations different populations retain local adaptation Species the ultimate reservoir of adaptive variability, representing option values Ecosystems different ecosystems deliver a diversity of roles the quantity and quality of service delivery depend on distribution and location ' Biomes represent broad habitat and vegetation types, span across biogeographic realms, and are useful units for assessing global biodiversity and ecosystem services because they stratify the globe into ecologically meaningful and contrasting classes. Throughout this report, and elsewhere in the MA, the 14 biomes of the WWF terrestrial biome classification are used, based on WWF terrestrial ecoregions (C4.2.2). 20 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis size, greater dispersal, larger range sizes, and lower levels of regional species clustering (C4.2.3). Biomes and biogeographic realms provide broad pictures of the distribution of functional diversity. Functional diversity (the variety of different ecological functions in a community Eco.LoeicaL INDICATORS AND BIODIVERSITY The National Research Council in the United States identified three categories of ecological indicators, none of which adequately assesses the many dimensions of biodiversity: mw Ecosystem extent and status (such as land cover and land use) indicates the coverage of ecosystems and their ecologi- cal attributes. w Ecological capital, further divided into biotic raw material (such as total species richness) and abiotic raw materials (such as soil nutrients), indicates the amount of resources available for providing services. = Ecological functioning (such as lake trophic status) measures the performance of ecosystems. Care must therefore be taken not to apply ecological indica- tors to uses they were not intended for, especially when assess- ing biodiversity. For example, biotic raw ecological capital measures the amount and variability of species within a defined area (C2.2.4). This may seem related to biodiversity, but it mea- sures only taxonomic diversity. As such, this indicator does not necessarily capture many important aspects of biodiversity that are significant for the delivery of ecosystem services. The most common ecological indicator, total species rich- ness, is a case in point. TSR only partially captures ecosystem services. It does not differentiate among species in terms of sen- sitivity or resilience to change, nor does it distinguish between species that fulfill significant roles in the ecosystem (such as pol linators and decomposers) and those that play lesser roles. That is, all species are weighted equally, which can lead assigning equal values to areas that have quite different biota. Moreover, the value of TSR depends on the definition of the area over which it was measured and may scale neither to smaller nor to larger areas. Finally, TSR does not differentiate between native and non- native species, and the latter often include exotic, introduced, or invasive species that frequently disrupt key ecosystem services. Ecosystem degradation by human activities may temporarily increase species richness in the limited area of the impact due to an increase in exotic or weedy species, but this is not a relevant increase in biodiversity (C2.2.4). Given the limitations of ecological indicators to serve as ade- quate indicators of biodiversity, work is urgently needed to develop a broader set of biodiversity indicators that are aligned against valued aspects of biodiversity. With the exception of diversity indices based on taxonomic or population measures, little attention has been paid to the development of indicators that capture all the dimensions of biodiversity (C4.5.1), although see Key Question 6 and C4.5.2 for more on indicators for the “2010 biodiversity target.” independent of its taxonomic diversity) shows patterns of associ- ations (biota typical of wetlands, forests, grasslands, estuaries, and so forth) with geography and climate known as biomes (see Figure 1.2), with ecosystems and ecoregions being smaller divisions within biomes (see Figure 1.3). These can be used to provide first-order approximations of both expected functional diversity as well as possible changes in the distribution of these associations should environmental conditions change. Temporal Patterns of Biodiversity: Background Rates of Extinction and Biodiversity Loss Knowledge of patterns of biodiversity over time allow for only very approximate estimates of background rates of extinc- tion or of how fast species have become extinct over geological time. Except for the last 1,000 years, global biodiversity has been relatively constant over most of human history, but the history of life is characterized by considerable change. The estimated mag- nitude of background rates of extinction is roughly 0.1-1.0 extinctions per million species per year. Most measurements of this rate have come from assessing the length of species’ lifetimes through the fossil record: these range over 0.5—13 million years, and possibly 0.2-16 million years. These data probably underes- timate background extinction rates because they are necessarily largely derived from taxa that are abundant and widespread in the fossil record (C4.4.2). Current rates of extinction are dis- cussed in Key Question 3. A mismatch exists between the dynamics of changes in natu- ral systems and human responses to those changes. This mis- match arises from the lags in ecological responses, the complex feedbacks between socioeconomic and ecological systems, and the difficulty of predicting thresholds. Multiple impacts (espe- cially the addition of climate change to the mix of forcing func- tions) can cause thresholds, or rapid and dramatic changes in ecosystem function even though the increase in environmental CRITERIA FOR EFFECTIVE ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS An effective ecological indicator should: @ Provide information about changes in important processes = Be sensitive enough to detect important changes but not so sensitive that signals are masked by natural variability = Be able to detect changes at the appropriate temporal and Spatial scale without being overwhelmed by variability = Be based on well-understood and generally accepted con- ceptual models of the system to which it is applied = Be based on reliable data that are available to assess trends and are collected in a relatively straightforward process = Be based on data for which monitoring systems are in place @ Be easily understood by policy-makers EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 21 Oo stress has been small and constant over time. Understanding such thresholds requires having long-term records, but such records are usually lacking or monitoring has been too infrequent, of the wrong periodicity, or too localized to provide the necessary data to analyze and predict threshold behavior (C28, $3.3.1). Shifts to different regimes may cause rapid substantial changes in biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well- being. Regime shifts have been commonly documented in pelagic systems due to thresholds related to temperature regimes and overexploitation (C19.2.1, C18). Some regime shifts are essentially irreversible, such as coral reef ecosystems that undergo sudden shifts from coral-dominated to algal-dominated reefs (C19.5). The trigger for such phase shifts usually includes increased nutrient inputs leading to eutrophic conditions and removal of herbivorous fishes that maintain the balance between corals and algae. Once the thresholds (both an upper and a lower threshold) for the two ecological processes of nutrient loading and herbivory are passed, the phase shift occurs quickly (within months), and the resulting ecosystem—though stable—is less productive and less diverse. Consequently, human well-being is affected not only by reductions in food supply and decreased income from reef-related industries (diving and snorkeling, aquarium fish collecting, and so on), but also by increased costs due to diminished ability of reefs to protect shorelines. (Algal reefs are more prone to being broken up in storm events, leading to shoreline erosion and seawater breaches of land) (C19.3). Such phase shifts have been documented in Jamaica, elsewhere in the Caribbean, and in Indo-Pacific reefs (C19, $3.3.1). Introduced invasive species can act as a trigger for dramatic changes in ecosystem structure, function, and delivery of ser- vices. For example, the introduction of the carnivorous cteno- phore Mnemiopsis leidy: (a jellyfish-like animal) in the Black Sea caused the loss of 26 major fisheries species and has been impli- cated (along with other factors) in the subsequent growth of the oxygen-deprived “dead” zone (C19.2.1). Biodiversity and Its Link to Ecosystem Services Biodiversity plays an important role in ecosystem functions that provide supporting, provisioning, regulating, and cultural services. These services are essential for human well-being. However, at present there are few studies that link changes in biodiversity with changes in ecosystem functioning to changes in human well-being. Protecting the Catskill watersheds that provide drinking water for New York City is one case where safeguarding ecosystem services paid a dividend of several billion dollars. Further work that demonstrates the links between biodi- versity, regulating and supporting services, and human well-being is needed to show this vital but often unappreciated value of biodiversity (C4, C7, C11). Species composition matters as much or more than species richness when it comes to ecosystem services. Ecosystem func- tioning, and hence ecosystem services, at any given moment in time is strongly influenced by the ecological characteristics of the most abundant species, not by the number of species. The rela- tive importance of a species to ecosystem functioning is deter- mined by its traits and its relative abundance. For example, the traits of the dominant or most abundant plant species—such as how long they live, how big they are, how fast they assimilate carbon and nutrients, how decomposable their leaves are, or how e 1.1. EstimaTEs OF PROPORTIONS AND NuMBERS OF NAMED SPECIES IN Groups OF EUKARYOTE SPECIES AND EsTIMATES OF PROPORTIONS OF THE [OTAL NUMBER OF SPECIES IN GROUPS OF EUKARYOTES (C4.2.3) Number of species (in thousand) 0 1000 2.000 3 000 4000 5000 6 000 7000 8 000 Insects and myriapods # Fungi Chelicerata > Protoctista © Nematodes 4 Plants Molluscs © a Named species ey Unnamed species (estimate) Crustaceans ‘ Vertebrates @ Myriapods: centipedes and millipedes b Arachnids © Algae, slime mold, amoeboids, and other single-celled organisms (excluding bacteria) d Roundworms © Snails, clams, squids, octopuses, and kin f Barnacles, copepods, crabs, lobsters, shrimps, krill, and kin Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 22 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis re 1.2. COMPARISONS FOR THE 14 TERRESTRIAL BIOMES OF THE WORLD IN TERMS OF SpEcIES RICHNESS, FaMILy RICHNESS, AND ENDEMIC SPECIES (C4 Fig 4.7) 0 2 000 4000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 20 000 endemics endemics endemics endemics EE SE SS Tropical and sub-tropical grasslands, savannas, and shrublands = Deserts and Xeric shrublands Ei | Tropical and sub-tropical dry broadleaf forests Upadecrpede earls SE SE Montane grasslands and shrublands SE EE Temperate broadleaf and mixed forests BE Flooded grasslands and savannas (SS Tropical and sub-tropical coniferous forests Temperate grasslands, savannas, and shrublands EE Mangroves [EE Temperate coniferous forests 2 SE Mediterranean forests, woodlands, and scrub SpeCies richness I Boreal forests / Taiga i Tundra Tundra IE Saas) f = | Z Boreal forests / Taiga Hii ES Ey amily richness Temperate coniferous forests maa eee Tropical and sub-tropical coniferous forests Az! [aan [iii inn Temperate grasslands, savannas, and shrublancs Saas Sa (a Mediterranean forests, woodlands, and Scrub Sx! [i iit i tintin Mangroves i Die ee Flooded grasslands and savannas i! [Raga [nnn nnn Temperate broadleaf and mixed forests =! [aa litt Montane grasslands and shrublands Sa ey ie nnn! Tropical and sub-tropical dry broadleaf forests EE ae eee Deserts and Xeric shrublands = ine [a Tropical and sub-tropical grasslands, savannas, and shrublancs [aa [a ea ee and sub-tropical moist broadleaf forests [oe i Amphibians 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 23 Tue 8 BloGEOGRAPHICAL REALMS AND 14 Bromes UseED IN THE MA (C Biogeographic realms are large spatial regions within which ecosystems share a broadly similar biological evolutionary history. Eight terrestrial biogeographic realms are typically recognized, corresponding roughly to continents. Although similar ecosystems (such as tropical moist for- ests) share similar processes and major vegetation types wherever they are found, their species composition varies markedly depending on the biogeographic realm in which they are found. Assessing biodiversity at the level of biogeographic realms is important because the realms display substantial variation in the extent of change, they face different drivers of change, and there may be differences in the options for mit igating or managing the drivers. Terrestrial biogeographic realms reflect freshwater biodiversity patterns reasonably well, but marine biogeo- graphic realms are poorly known and largely undefined (C4.2.1). ! Palearctic Nearctic oy Oceanic / Indo-Malay ‘ua be Oceanic Afrotropical a = Australasian _ Bic nee ie Antarctic Geese Terrestrial biomes (9 Tropical and sub-tropical moist broadleaf forests [J Tropical and sub-tropical grasslands, savannas, and shrublands {) Tropical and sub-tropical dry broadleaf forests (9) Temperate grasslands, savannas, and shrublands [J Tropical and sub-tropical coniferous forests [) Montane grasslands and shrublands () Temperate broadleaf and mixed forests [9 Flooded grasslands and savannas Gl Temperate coniferous forests 3 Mangroves [) Boreal forests / Taiga [__] Deserts and Xeric shrublands == ------ Realm boundaries {_} Tundra {-) Mediterranean forests, woodlands, and scrub {__} Rock and ice Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment dense their wood is—are usually the key species drivers of an all individuals of a species from its entire range). Loss of ecosys- ecosystem's processing of matter and energy. Thus conserving or tem functions, and the services derived from them, however, restoring the composition of biological communities, rather than occurs long before global extinction. Often, when the function- simply maximizing species numbers, is critical to maintaining ing of a local ecosystem has been pushed beyond a certain ecosystem services (C11.2.1, C11.3). limit by direct or indirect biodiversity alterations, the ecosystem- Local or functional extinction, or the reduction of popula- service losses may persist for a very long time (C11). tions to the point that they no longer contribute to ecosystem Changes in biotic interactions among species—predation, functioning, can have dramatic impacts on ecosystem services. parasitism, competition, and facilitation—can lead to dispro- Local extinctions (the loss of a species from a local area) and portionately large, irreversible, and often negative alterations of functional extinctions (the reduction of a species such that it no ecosystem processes. In addition to direct interactions, such as longer plays a significant role in ecosystem function) have predation, parasitism, or facilitation, the maintenance of ecosys- received little attention compared with global extinctions (loss of tem processes depends on indirect interactions as well, such as a predator preying on a dominant competitor such that the 24 EcosysTEMS AND HuMaAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis dominant is suppressed, which permits subordinate species to coexist. Interactions with important consequences for ecosystem services include pollination; links between plants and soil com- munities, including mycorrhizal fungi and nitrogen-fixing micro- organisms; links between plants and herbivores and seed dispersers; interactions involving organisms that modify habitat conditions (beavers that build ponds, for instance, or tussock grasses that increase fire frequency); and indirect interactions involving more than two species (such as top predators, parasites, or pathogens that control herbivores and thus avoid overgrazing of plants or algal communities) (C11.3.2). Many changes in ecosystem services are brought about by the removal or introduction of organisms in ecosystems that dis- rupt biotic interactions or ecosystem processes. Because the net- work of interactions among species and the network of linkages among ecosystem processes are complex, the impacts of either the removal of existing species or the introduction of new species are difficult to anticipate (C11). (See Table 1.1.) As in terrestrial and aquatic communities, the loss of individ- ual species involved in key interactions in marine ecosystems can also influence ecosystem processes and the provisioning of ecological services. For example, coral reefs and the ecosystem services they provide are directly dependent on the maintenance of some key interactions between animals and algae. As one of the most species-rich communities on Earth, coral reefs are responsible for maintaining a vast storehouse of genetic and bio- logical diversity. Substantial ecosystem services are provided by coral reefs—such as habitat construction, nurseries, and spawn- ing grounds for fish; nutrient cycling and carbon and nitrogen fixing in nutrient-poor environments; and wave buffering and sediment stabilization. The total economic value of reefs and associated services is estimated as hundreds of millions of dollars. Yet all coral reefs are dependent on a single key biotic interaction: symbiosis with algae. The dramatic effects of climate change and variability (such as El Nifio oscillations) on coral reefs are medi- ated by the disruption of this symbiosis (C11.4.2). Supporting Services Biodiversity affects key ecosystem processes in terrestrial eco- systems such as biomass production, nutrient and water cycling, and soil formation and retention—all of which govern and ensure supporting services (high certainty). The relationship between biodiversity and supporting ecosystem services depends on composition, relative abundance, functional diversity, and, to a lesser extent, taxonomic diversity. If multiple dimensions of biodiversity are driven to very low levels, especially trophic or functional diversity within an ecosystem, both the level and sta- bility (for instance, biological insurance) of supportive services may decrease (CF2, C11). (See Figure 1.4.) Region-to-region differences in ecosystem processes are driven mostly by climate, resource availability, disturbance, and other extrinsic factors and not by differences in species richness (high certainty). In natural ecosystems, the effects of abiotic and land use drivers on ecosystem services are usually more important than changes in species richness. Plant productivity, nutrient retention, and resistance to invasions and diseases sometimes grow with increasing species numbers in experimental ecosystems that have been reduced to low levels of biodiversity. In natural ecosystems, however, these direct effects of increasing species richness are usually overridden by the effects of climate, resource availability, or disturbance regime (C11.3). Even if losses of biodiversity have small short-term impacts on ecosystem function, such losses may reduce the capacity of ecosystems for adjustment to changing environments (that is, ecosystem stability or resilience, resistance, and biological insurance) (high certainty). The loss of multiple components of biodiversity, especially functional and ecosystem diversity at the landscape level, will lead to lowered ecosystem stability (igh certainty). Although the stability of an ecosystem depends to a large extent on the characteristics of the dominant species (such as life span, growth rate, or regeneration strategy), less abundant species also contribute to the long-term preservation of ecosystem functioning. There is evidence that a large number of resident species, including those that are rare, may act as “insurance” that buffers ecosystem processes in the face of changes in the physical and biological environment (such as changes in precipitation, temperature, pathogens) (C11.3.2). As tragically illustrated by social conflict and humanitarian crisis over droughts, floods, and other ecosystem collapses, stability of ecosystems underpins most components of human well-being, including health, security, satisfactory social relations, and freedom of choice and action (C6; see also Key Question 2). Regulating Services Invasion resistance The preservation of the number, types, and relative abun- dance of resident species can enhance invasion resistance in a wide range of natural and semi-natural ecosystems (medium cer- tainty). Although areas of high species richness (such as biodiver- sity hot spots) are more susceptible to invasion than species-poor areas, within a given habitat the preservation of its natural species pool appears to increase its resistance to invasions by non-native species. This is also supported by evidence from several marine ecosystems, where decreases in the richness of native taxa were correlated with increased survival and percent cover of invading species (C11.3.1, C11.4.1). Pollination Pollination is essential for the provision of plant-derived eco- system services, yet there have been worldwide declines in pol- linator diversity (7medium certainty). Many fruits and vegetables require pollinators, thus pollination services are critical to the production of a considerable portion of the vitamins and miner- als in the human diet. Although there is no assessment at the continental level, documented declines in more-restricted geo- graphical areas include mammals (lemurs and bats, for example) (continued on page 29) EcosysTEMs AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 25 Table 1.1. Ecotocicat SuRPRISES CAUSED By COMPLEX INTERACTIONS Voluntary or involuntary introductions or deletions of species often trigger unexpected alterations in the normal provision of ecosystem services by terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems. In all cases, the community and ecosystem alterations have been the consequence of indirect interactions among three or more species (C11, Table 11.2). Study Case Nature of the Interaction Involved Ecosystem Service Consequences Introductions Top predators Introduction of brown trout (Salmo trutta) in New Zealand for angling Introduction of bass (Cichla ocellaris) in Gatun Lake, Panama Introduction of pine marten (Martes martes) in the Balearic Islands, Spain Intraguild predators Egg parasitoid (Anastatus kashmirensis) to control gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) Gambusia and Lepomis fish in rice fields to combat mosquitoes Intraguild preys Opossum shrimp (Mysis relicta) in Canadian lakes to increase fish production Apparent competitors Rats (Rattus spp) and cats (Felis catus) in Steward Island, New Zealand Herbivores Zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) in Great Lakes, United States Mutualists Myna bird (Acridotheres tristis) for worm pest control in Hawaiian sugarcane plantations trophic cascade, predator increased primary producers by decreasing herbivores trophic cascade, top predator decreased control by predators of mosquito larvae predator of frugivorous lizards (main seed dipersers) hyperparasitism (parasitoids that use parasitoids as hosts) intraguild predator (adult fish feed on juveniles as well as on mosquito larvae) intraguild prey depletes shared zooplankton prey rats induced high cat densities and increased predation on endangered flightless parrot (Strigops habroptilus) zebra mussel reduced phytoplankton and outcompeted native bivalves myna engaged in the dispersal of the exotic woody weed Lantana camara 26 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis negative—increased eutrophication negative—decreased control of malaria vector negative—decreased diversity of frugivorous lizards due to extinction of native lizards on some islands; changes in dominant shrub (Cneorum tricoccon) distribution because marten replaced the frugivorous-dispersing role negative—disruption of biological control of pests; introduced parasitoid poses risk of hyperparasitism to other pestregulating native parasitoids opposed to goal—decreased control of disease vector (mosquito) opposed to goal—decreased salmonid fish production negative—reduced diversity negative—reduced diversity positive—increased water quality negative—increased invasion by Lantana produced impenetrable thorny thickets; reduced agricultural crops and pasture carrying capacity and sometimes increased fire risk; displaced habitat of native birds Ecosystem engineers Earthworm (Pontoscolex corethrurus) in Amazonian tropical forests converted to pasture C, perennial grasses Schizachyrium condesatum, Melinis minutiflora in Hawaii for pasture improvement Nitrogen-fixing firetree (Myrica faya) in Hawaii dramatically reduces soil macroporosity and gas exchange capacity increased fuel loads, fuel distribution, and flammability increases soil nitrogen levels in newly formed nitrogen-poor volcanic soils negative—reduces soil macrofaunal diversity and increases soil methane emissions negative—increases fire frequency, affecting fire-sensitive plants; reduced plant diversity; positive feedback for further invasion of flammable exotic species on burned areas negative—increased fertility, increased invasion by other exotics, reduced regeneration of native Metrosideros tree, alteration of successional patterns Deletions/ Harvesting : ; Top predators Selective harvesting of piscivorous fishes in Canadian lakes Sea otter (Enhydra lutris) harvesting near extinction in southern California Pollution-induced reductions in predators of nematodes in forest soils Intraguild predators Declining populations of coyote (Canis latrans) in southern California Overhavesting of seals and sea lions in Alaska Keystone predators Harvesting of triggerfish (Balistaphus) in Kenyan coral reefs Herbivores Voluntary removal of sheep and cattle in Santa Cruz Island, United States, for restoration Overfishing in the Caribbean reduced herbivorous and predatory fish and reduced fish biomass Ecosystem engineers Voluntary removal of exotic tamarisk (Tamariscus sp.) for restoration of riparian habitats in Mediterranean deserts piscivorus fishes promote Daphnia that effectively suppresses primary (algal) production cascading effects produced reductions of kelp forests and the kelp-dependent community heavy metal bioaccumulation produced reductions nematophagous predators and increased herbivorous nematodes releases in raccoons (Procyon lotor) and feral house cats diet shifts of killer whales increased predation on sea otters triggerfish declines release sea urchins, which outcompete herbivorous fish release of the exotic plant component from top-down control lack of fish grazers allowed macroalgae to outcompete coral following disturbances long-established tamarisk has replaced riparian vegetation and serves as habitat to endangered birds negative—shifts from net carbon sinks in piscivorous-dominated to equilibrium or net carbon sources in planktivorous-dominated lakes negative—loss of biodiversity of kelp habitat users negative—disruption of forest soil food webs; increases in belowground herbivory; decrease in forest productivity negative—threat to native bird populations negative—conflict with other restoration programs; failure of reintroduction of sea otters to restore kelp forest ecosystems negative—increased bioerosion of coral substrates; reduced calcium carbonate deposition opposite to goal—explosive increases in exotic herbs and forbs and little recovery of native plant species negative—coral cover was reduced from 52% to 3%, and macroalgae increased from 4% to 92% opposite to goal—reduction in biodiversity; structural changes in riparian habitats EcosystTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 27 Figure 1.4. 5 2 NG, AND EcosysTEM SERVICES ig 11.1) Figure 1.4. Biopiversity, Ecosystem FUNCTIONING E S (C11 Fig 11.1) Biodiversity is both a response variable affected by global change drivers and a factor modifying ecosystem processes and services and human well-being. Solid arrows indicate the links that are the focus of Chapter C11. v etter eke kx keke eke ekg ekg Hg NK Global changes Climate Biochemical cycles Land use Species introduction Number Relative abundance Composition Interactions Ecosystem functions Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 28 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis Biodiversity o> ———— Human well-being Basic material for good life Health Security Good social relations Freedom of choice and action } Ecosystem services PROVISIONING SERVICES Food, fiber, and fuel Genetic resources Biochemicals Fresh water CULTURAL SERVICES Spiritual and religious values Knowledge system Education and inspiration Recreation and aesthetic values Sense of place SUPPORTING SERVICES Primary production Provision of habitat Nutrient cycling Soil formation and retention Production of atmospheric oxygen Water cycling REGULATING SERVICES Invasion resistance Herbivory Pollination Seed dispersal Climate regulation Pest regulation Disease regulation Natural hazard protection Erosion regulation Water purification and birds (hummingbirds and sunbirds, for instance), bumblebees in Britain and Germany, honeybees in the United States and some European countries, and butterflies in Europe. The causes of these declines are multiple, but habitat destruction and the use of pesticide are especially important. Estimates of the global annual monetary value of pollination vary widely, but they are in the order of hundreds of billions of dollars (C11.3.2, Box C11.2). Climate regulation Biodiversity influences climate at local, regional, and global scales, thus changes in land use and land cover that affect biodi- versity can affect climate. The important components of biodi- versity include plant functional diversity and the type and distribution of habitats across landscapes. These influence the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to sequester carbon, albedo (proportion of incoming radiation from the Sun that is reflected by the land surface back to space), evapotranspiration, tempera- ture, and fire regime—all of which influence climate, especially at the landscape, ecosystem, or biome levels. For example, forests have higher evapotranspiration than other ecosystems, such as grasslands, because of their deeper roots and greater leaf area. Thus forests have a net moistening effect on the atmosphere and become a moisture source for downwind ecosystems. In the Amazon, for example, 60% of precipitation comes from water transpired by upwind ecosystems (C11.3.3). In addition to biodiversity within habitats, the diversity of habitats in a landscape exerts additional impacts on climate across multiple scales. Landscape-level patches (>10 kilometers in diameter) that have lower albedo and higher surface temperature than neighboring patches create cells of rising warm air above the patch (convection). This air is replaced by cooler moister air that flows laterally from adjacent patches (advection). Climate models suggest that these landscape-level effects can substantially modify local-to-regional climate. In Western Australia, for example, the replacement of native heath vegetation by wheatlands increased regional albedo. As a result, air tended to rise over the dark (more solar-absorptive and therefore warmer) heathland, drawing moist air from the wheatlands to the heathlands. The net effect was a 10% increase in precipitation over heathlands and a 30% decrease in precipitation over croplands (C11.3.3). Some components of biodiversity affect carbon sequestration and thus are important in carbon-based climate change mitiga- tion when afforestation, reforestation, reduced deforestation, and biofuel plantations are involved (high certainty). Biodiversity affects carbon sequestration primarily through its effects on spe- cies characteristics, which determine how much carbon is taken up from the atmosphere (assimilation) and how much is released into it (decomposition, combustion). Particularly important are how fast plants can grow, which governs carbon inputs, and woodiness, which enhances carbon sequestration because woody plants tend to contain more carbon, live longer, and decompose more slowly than smaller herbaceous plants. Plant species also strongly influence carbon loss via decomposition and their effects on disturbance. Plant traits also influence the probability of disturbances such as fire, windthrow, and human harvest, which temporarily change forests from accumulating carbon to releas- ing it (C11.3.3). The major importance of marine biodiversity in climate reg- ulation appears to be via its effect on biogeochemical cycling and carbon sequestration. The ocean, through its sheer volume and links to the terrestrial biosphere, plays a huge role in cycling of almost every material involved in biotic processes. Of these, the anthropogenic effects on carbon and nitrogen cycling are especially prominent. Biodiversity influences the effectiveness of the biological pump that moves carbon from the surface ocean and sequesters it in deep waters and sediments. Some of the car- bon that is absorbed by marine photosynthesis and transferred through food webs to grazers sinks to the deep ocean as fecal pellets and dead cells. The efficiency of this trophic transfer and therefore the extent of carbon sequestration is sensitive to the species richness and composition of the plankton community (C11.4.3). Pest, disease, and pollution control The maintenance of natural pest control services, which benefits food security, rural household incomes, and national incomes of many countries, is strongly dependent on biodiver- sity. Yields of desired products from agroecosystems may be reduced by attacks of animal herbivores and microbial patho- gens, above and below ground, and by competition with weeds. Increasing associated biodiversity with low-diversity agroecosys- tems, however, can enhance biological control and reduce the dependency and costs associated with biocides. Moreover, high- biodiversity agriculture has cultural and aesthetic value and can reduce many of the externalized costs of irrigation, fertilizer, pesticide, and herbicide inputs associated with monoculture agriculture (C11.3.4, Boxes C11.3 and C11.4). The marine microbial community provides critical detoxifi- cation services, but how biodiversity influences them is not well understood. There is very little information on how many species are necessary to provide detoxification services, but these services may critically depend on one or a few species. Some marine organisms provide the ecosystem service of filtering water and reducing effects of eutrophication. For example, American oysters in Chesapeake Bay were once abundant but have sharply declined—and with them, their filtering ecosystem services. Areas like the Chesapeake might have much clearer water if large populations of filtering oysters could be reintroduced. Some marine microbes can degrade toxic hydrocarbons, such as those in an oil spill, into carbon and water, using a process that requires oxygen. Thus this service is threatened by nutrient pollution, which generates oxygen deprivation (C1 1.4.4). EcosystTEMS AND HuMaNn WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 29 2. Why is biodiversity loss a concern? & Biodiversity is essential for ecosystem services and hence for human well-being. Biodiversity goes beyond the provisioning for material welfare and livelihoods to include security, resil- iency, social relations, health, and freedoms and choices. Some people have benefited over the last century from the conversion of natural ecosystems to human-dominated ecosystems and from the exploitation of biodiversity. At the same time, however, these losses in biodiversity and associated changes in ecosys- tem services have caused other people to experience declining well-being, with some social groups being pushed into poverty. Main Links among Biodiversity, Ecosystem Services, and Various Constituents of Human Well-being The MA identifies biodiversity and the many ecosystem services that it provides as a key instrumental and constitutive factor determining human well-being. The MA findings support, with high certainty, that biodiversity loss and deteriorating ecosystem services contribute—directly or indirectly—to worsening health, higher food insecurity, increasing vulnerability, lower material wealth, worsening social relations, and less freedom for choice and action. Food Security Biological diversity is used by many rural communities directly as an insurance and coping mechanism to increase flex- ibility and spread or reduce risk in the face of increasing uncer- tainty, shocks, and surprises. The availability of this biological “safety net” has increased the security and resilience of some local communities to external economic and ecological perturbations, shocks, or surprises (C6.2.2, C8.2). In a world where fluctuating commodity prices are more the norm than the exception, eco- nomic entitlements of the poor are increasingly becoming precar- ious. The availability of an ecosystem-based food security net during times when economic entitlements are insufficient to pur- chase adequate nourishment in the market provides an important insurance program (C8.1, C6.7). 2.1. PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLDS DEPENDENT ON INDIGENOUS PLANT—BASED CorinGc MECHANISMS AT KENYAN AND TANZANIAN SITE (C6 Table 6.4) Activities that Involve Use Share of Households, Share of Households, eee Coping mechanisms based on indigenous plants are particu- larly important for the most vulnerable people, who have little access to formal employment, land, or market opportunities (C6). For example, investigations of two dryland sites in Kenya and Tanzania report local communities using wild indigenous plants to provide alternative sources of food when harvests failed or when sudden expenses had to be met (such as a hospital bill). (See Table 2.1.) Another pathway through which biodiversity can improve food security is the adoption of farming practices that maintain and make use of agricultural biodiversity. Biodiversity is impor- tant to maintaining agricultural production. Wild relatives of domestic crops provide genetic variability that can be crucial for overcoming outbreaks of pests and pathogens and new environ- mental stresses. Many agricultural communities consider increased local diversity a critical factor for the long-term pro- ductivity and viability of their agricultural systems. For example, interweaving multiple varieties of rice in the same paddy has been shown to increase productivity by lowering the loss from pests and pathogens. Vulnerability The world is experiencing an increase in human suffering and economic losses from natural disasters over the past sev- eral decades. Mangrove forests and coral reefs—a rich source of biodiversity—are excellent natural buffers against floods and storms. Their loss or reduction in coverage has increased the severity of flooding on coastal communities. Floods affect more people (140 million per year on average) than all other natural or technological disasters put together. Over the past four decades, the number of “great” disasters has increased by a factor of four, while economic losses have increased by a factor of ten. During the 1990s, countries low on the Human Development Index experienced about 20% of the hazard events and reported over 50% of the deaths and just 5% of economic losses. Those with high rankings on the index accounted for over 50% of the total economic losses and less than 2% of the deaths (C6, R11, C16). A common finding from the various sub- global assessments was that many people living in rural areas cherish and promote ecosystem variability and diversity as a risk management strategy against shocks and surprises (SG11). of Indigenous Plants Kenya site Tanzania site They maintain a diversity of ecosystem services (percent) (percent) and are skeptical about solutions that reduce their options. The sub-global assessments found All use 94 94 Samy 3 : that diversity of species, food, and landscapes Food use 69 54 serve as “savings banks” that rural communities Non-food use 40 42 use to cope with change and ensure sustainable 30 EcosysTEMS AND HUMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis livelihoods (see Peruvian, Portuguese, Costa Rican, and India sub-global assessments). Health An important component of health is a balanced diet. About 7,000 species of plants and several hundred species of animals have been used for human food consumption at one time or another. Some indigenous and traditional communities currently consume 200 or more species. Wild sources of food remain par- ticularly important for the poor and landless to provide a some- what balanced diet (C6, C8.2.2). Overexploitation of marine fisheries worldwide, and of bushmeat in many areas of the trop- ics, has lead to a reduction in the availability of wild-caught ani- mal protein, with serious consequences in many countries for human health (C4.3.4). Human health, particularly risk of exposure to many infec- tious diseases, may depend on the maintenance of biodiversity in natural ecosystems. On the one hand, a greater diversity of wildlife species might be expected to sustain a greater diversity of pathogens that can infect humans. However, evidence is accumu- lating that greater wildlife diversity may decrease the spread of many wildlife pathogens to humans. The spread of Lyme disease, the best-studied case, seems to be decreased by the maintenance of the biotic integrity of natural ecosystems (C11, C14). Energy Security Wood fuel provides more than half the energy used in developing countries. Even in industrial countries such as Swe- den and the United States, wood supplies 17% and 3% of total energy consumption respectively. In some African countries, such as Tanzania, Uganda, and Rwanda, wood fuel accounts for 80% of total energy consumption (SG-SAfMA). In rural areas, 95% is consumed in the form of firewood, while in urban areas 85% is in the form of charcoal. Shortage of wood fuel occurs in areas with high population density without access to alternative and affordable energy sources. In some provinces of Zambia where population densities exceed the national average of 13.7 persons per square kilometer, the demand for wood has already surpassed local supply. In such areas, people are vulnerable to illness and malnutrition because of the lack of resources to heat homes, cook food, and boil water. Women and children in rural poor communities are the ones most affected by wood fuel scarcity. They must walk long distances searching for fire- wood and therefore have less time for tending crops and school (C9.4). Provision of Clean Water The continued loss of cloud forests and the destruction of watersheds reduce the quality and availability of water supplied to household use and agriculture. The availability of clean drinking water is a concern in dozens of the world’s largest cities (C27). In one of the best documented cases, New York City took steps to protect the integrity of watersheds in the Catskills to ensure continued provision of clean drinking water to 9 million people. Protecting the ecosystem was shown to be far more cost- effective than building and operating a water filtration plant. New York City avoided $6-8 billion in expenses by protecting its watersheds (C7, R17). Social Relations Many cultures attach spiritual and religious values to ecosys- tems or their components such as a tree, hill, river, or grove (C17). Thus loss or damage to these components can harm social relations—for example, by impeding religious and social ceremo- nies that normally bind people. (See Box 2.1.) Damage to ecosys- tems, highly valued for their aesthetic, recreational, or spiritual values can damage social relations, both by reducing the bonding value of shared experience as well as by causing resentment toward groups that profit from their damage (S11, SG10). SoctaL CONSEQUENCES OF BIODIVERSITY DEGRADATION (SG-SAfMA) The basic needs of the AmaXhosa people in South Africa are met by ecosystem services, including fuelwood, medicinal plants, build- ing materials, cultural species, food supplements, and species of economic value. When asked by researchers about their relation- ship with the natural environment, a local responded “I am entirely dependent on the environment. Everything that | need comes from this environment” and “[the environment] will be important for- ever because if you have something from the environment it does encourage you to love the environment.” Respondents often described positive emotional and physical symptoms when the environment is healthy: “When the environment is healthy, my body and spirit is also happy.” And when describ- ing people's feelings toward a healthy environment, a respondent stated that “people love such an environment. They really adore it. Such an environment makes them feel free.” In addition, respon- dents described the feelings of peace when walking in the bush and how they would go into the natural environment to pray. The beliefs and traditions of the AmaxXhosa play an important role in guiding resource use and management and encouraging values to be place-centered. The ancestors are central to this cosmology, where the very identity of a Xhosa person is based on performing traditions and rituals for ancestors. The majority of respondents stated that practicing traditions and thus communi- cating with ancestors is what is of value to a Xhosa person. A number of sites and species are fundamental to the perfor- mance of rituals and maintaining a relationship with the ances- tors. When respondents were asked what would happen if these sites were to be destroyed, they replied “It means that the ances- tors would be homeless.” “That can’t happen here at this village because our health depends entirely on these sites,” and “it means that our culture is dead.” Ecosystems AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 31 Freedom of Choice and Action Freedom of choice and action within the MA context refers to individuals having control over what happens and being able to achieve what they value (CF3). Loss of biodiversity often means a loss of choices. Local fishers depend on man- groves as breeding grounds for local fish populations. Loss of mangroves translates to a loss in control over the local fish stock and a livelihood they have been pursuing for many generations and that they value. Another example is high-diversity agricul- tural systems. These systems normally produce less cash than monoculture cash crops, but farmers have some control over their entitlements because of spreading risk through diversity. High diversity of genotypes, populations, species, functional types, and spatial patches decreases the negative effects of pests and pathogens on crops and keeps open possibilities for agrarian communities to develop crops suited to future environmental challenges and to increase their resilience to climate variability and market fluctuations (C11). Another dimension of choices relates to the future. The loss of biodiversity in some instances is irreversible, and the value indi- viduals place on keeping biodiversity for future generations— the option value—can be significant (CF6, C2). The notion of having choices available irrespective of whether any of them will be actually picked is an essential constituent of the freedom aspect of well-being. However, putting a monetary figure on option values is notoriously difficult. We can only postulate on the needs and desires of future generations, some of which can be very different from today’s aspirations. Basic Materials for a Good Life and Sustainable Livelihoods Biodiversity offers directly the various goods—often plants, animals, and fungi—that individuals need in order to earn an income and secure sustainable livelihoods. In addition, it also contributes to livelihoods through the support it provides for ecosystem services: the agricultural labor force currently contains approximately 22% of the world’s population and accounts for 46% of its total labor force (C26.5.1). For example, apples are a major cash crop in the Himalayan region in India, accounting for 60-80% of total household income (SG3). The region is also rich in honeybee diversity, which played a signifi- cant role in pollinating field crops and wild plants, thereby increasing productivity and sustaining ecosystem functions. In the early 1980s, market demand for particular types of apples led farmers to uproot pollinated varieties and plant new, sterile cultivars. The pollinator populations were also negatively affected by excessive use of pesticides. The result was a reduc- tion in overall apple productivity and the extinction of many natural pollinator species (SG3). 32 EcosysTEMS AND HuMaN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis ae Nature-based tourism (“ecotourism”)—one of the fastest- growing segments of tourism worldwide—is a particularly important economic sector in a number of countries and a potential income source for many rural communities (C17.2.6). The aggregate revenue generated by nature-based tourism in Southern Africa was estimated to be $3.6 billion in 2000, roughly 50% of total tourism revenue (SG-SAfMA). Botswana, Kenya, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimba- bwe each generated over $100 million in revenue annually from nature-based tourism in 2000. In Tanzania, tourism contributed 30% of the total GDP of the country. Biodiversity also contributes to a range of other industries, including pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and horticulture. Market trends vary widely according to the industry and country involved but many bioprospecting activities and revenues are expected to increase over the next decades (C10). The current economic climate suggests that pharmaceutical bioprospecting will increase, especially as new methods use evolutionary and ecological knowledge. Losses of biodiversity can impose substantial costs at local and national scales. For example, the collapse of the Newfound- land cod fishery in the early 1990s cost tens of thousands of jobs, as well as at least $2 billion in income support and retraining. Recent evidence suggests that the preservation of the integrity of local biological communities, both in terms of the identity and the number of species, is important for the maintenance of plant and animal productivity, soil fertility, and their stability in the face of a changing environment (C11). Recent estimates from the MA Portugal sub-global assessment indicate that environ- mental expenses in that country are increasing at a rate of 3% a year and are presently 0.7% of GDP (SG-Portugal). Trade-offs among Biodiversity, Ecosystem Services, and Human Well-being When society has multiple goals, many of which depend on biodiversity, ecosystem services, and the many constituents of well-being, difficult decisions involving trade-offs among com- peting goals have to be made. The value of ecosystem services lost to human society, in the long term, may greatly exceed the short-term economic benefits that are gained from transforma- tive activities. In Sri Lanka, for example, the clearing of tropical forest for agriculture initially reduced the habitat for forest- adapted anopheline mosquito vectors of malaria. But in due course, other vector species occupied the changed habitat, con- tributing to the resurgence of malaria (SG3). Many of the changes in biodiversity and ecosystems have been made to enhance the production of specific ecosys- tem services such as food production. But only 4 of the 24 ecosystem services examined in this assessment have been enhanced: crops, livestock, aquaculture, and (in recent decades) carbon sequestration, while 15 services have been degraded. (See Table 2.2.) The degraded services include cap- ture fisheries, timber production, water supply, waste treatment (continued on page 37) AROUND THE YEAR 2000 (See page 37 for legend.) Service Sub- category Food Crops Livestock Capture fisheries Aquaculture Wild plant and animal products Fiber Timber Cotton, hemp, silk Wood fuel Genetic resources Human Use? A A v A NA Enhanced or Degraded? Provisioning Services A Noies Food provision has grown faster than overall population growth. Primary source of growth from increase in production per unit area but also significant expansion in cropland. Still persistent areas of low productivity and more rapid area expansion, é.g., sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Latin America. Significant increase in area devoted to livestock in some regions, but major source of growth has been more intensive, confined production of chicken, pigs, and cattle. Marine fish harvest increased until the late 1980s and has been declining since then. Currently, one quarter of marine fish stocks are overexploited or significantly depleted. Freshwater capture fisheries have also declined. Human use of capture fisheries as declined because of the reduced supply, not because of reduced demand. Aquaculture has become a globally significant source of food in the last 50 years and, in 2000, contributed 27% of total fish production. Use of fish feed for carnivorous aquaculture species places an additional burden on capture fisheries. Provision of these food sources is generally declining as natural habitats worldwide are under increasing pressure and as wild populations are exploited for food, particularly by the poor, at unsustainable levels. Global timber production has increased by 60% in the last four decades. Plantations provide an increasing volume of harvested roundwood, amounting to 35% of the global harvest in 2000. Roughly 40% of forest area has been lost during the industrial era, and forests continue to be lost in many regions (thus the service is degraded in those regions), although forest is now recovering in some temperate countries and thus this service has been enhanced (from this lower baseline) in these regions in recent decades. Cotton and silk production have doubled and tripled respectively in the last four decades. Production of other agricultural fibers has declined. Global consumption of fuelwood appears to have peaked in the 1990s and is now believed to be slowly declining but remains the dominant source of domestic fuel in some regions. Traditional crop breeding has relied on a relatively narrow range of germplasm for the major crop species, although molecular genetics and biotechnology provide new tools to quantify and expand genetic diversity in these crops. Use of genetic resources also is growing in connection with new industries based on biotechnology. Genetic resources have been lost through the loss of traditional cultivars of crop species (due in part to the adoption of modern farming practices and varieties) and through species extinctions. . TRENDs IN THE HumMaN UsE oF EcosysTEM SERVICES AND ENHANCEMENT OR DEGRADATION OF THE SERVICE MA Chapter C8.2 C8.2 C18 C8.2.2 C19 C8 Table 8.4 C8.3.1 C9.ES €21.1 C9.ES C9.ES €26.2.1 (continued on page 34) EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 33 able 2.2. TRENDS IN THE Human Use oF EcosysTEM SERVICES AND ENHANCEMENT OR DEGRADATION OF THE SERVICE AROUND THE YEAR 2000 (See page 37 for legend.) (continued) Service Sub- Human Enhanced Notes MA category Use? or Degraded? Chapter Biochemicals, A Vv Demand for biochemicals and new pharmaceuticals is growing, C10 natural but new synthetic technologies compete with natural products to medicines, and meet the demand. For many other natural products (cosmetics, pharmaceuticals personal care, bioremediation, biomonitoring, ecological restoration), use is growing. Species extinction and overharvesting of medicinal plants is diminishing the availability of these resources. Ornamental NA NA resources Fresh water A Vv Human modification of ecosystems (e.g., reservoir creation) has C7 stabilized a substantial fraction of continental river flow, making more fresh water available to people but in dry regions reducing river flows through open water evaporation and support to irrigation that also loses substantial quantities of water. Watershed management and vegetation changes have also had an impact on seasonal river flows. From 5% to possibly 25% of global freshwater use exceeds long-term accessible supplies and requires supplies either through engineered water transfers or overdraft of groundwater supplies. Between 15% and 35% of irrigation withdrawals exceed supply rates. Fresh water flowing in rivers also provides a service in the form of energy that is exploited through hydropower. The construction of dams has not changed the amount of energy, but it has made the energy more available to people. The installed hydroelectric capacity doubled between 1960 and 2000. Pollution and biodiversity loss are defining features of modern inland water systems in many populated parts of the world. Regulating Services Air quality A Vv The ability of the atmosphere to cleanse itself of pollutants has C13.ES regulation declined slightly since preindustrial times but likely not by more . a than 10%. The net contribution of ecosystems to this change is not known. Ecosystems are also a sink for tropospheric ozone, ammonia, NOx, SOz, particulates, and CH,, but changes in ie these sinks were not assessed. me Climate Global A A Terrestrial ecosystems were on average a net source of CO2 C13.ES regulation during the nineteenth and early twentieth century and became a net sink sometime around the middle of the last century. The biophysical effect of historical land cover changes (1750 to present) is net cooling on a global scale due to increased albedo, partially offsetting the warming effect of associated carbon emissions from land cover change over much of that period. Regional A Vv Changes in land cover have affected regional and local climates (ish! and local both positively and negatively, but there is a preponderance of C11.3 negative impacts. For example, tropical deforestation and desertification have tended to reduce local rainfall. Water regulation A +/- The effect of ecosystem change on the timing and magnitude of runoff, flooding, and aquifer recharge depends on the ecosystem involved and on the specific modifications made to the ecosystem. 34 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis Service Sub- Human Enhanced category Use? _ or Degraded? Erosion A v regulation Water A v purification and waste treatment Disease A +/- regulation Pest regulation A Vv Pollination A Vv Natural hazard A v regulation ; Notes MA Chapter Land use and crop/soil management practices have exacerbated C26 soil degradation and erosion, although appropriate soil conservation practices that reduce erosion, such as minimum tillage, are increasingly being adopted by farmers in North America and Latin America. Globally, water quality is declining, although in most industrial C7225 countries pathogen and organic pollution of surface waters has C19 decreased over the last 20 years. Nitrate concentration has grown rapidly in the last 30 years. The capacity of ecosystems to purify such wastes is limited, as evidenced by widespread reports of inland waterway pollution. Loss of wetlands has further decreased the ability of ecosystems to filter and decompose wastes. Ecosystem modifications associated with development have C14 often increased the local incidence of infectious diseases, although major changes in habitats can both increase or decrease the risk of particular infectious diseases. In many agricultural areas, pest control provided by natural C11.3 enemies has been replaced by the use of pesticides. Such pesticide use has itself degraded the capacity of agroecosystems to provide pest control. In other systems, pest control provided by natural enemies is being used and enhanced through integrated pest management. Crops containing pest-resistant genes can also reduce the need for application of toxic synthetic pesticides. There is established but incomplete evidence of a global decline Cll in the abundance of pollinators. Pollinator declines have been Box 11.2 reported in at least one region or country on every continent except Antarctica, which has no pollinators. Declines in abundance of pollinators have rarely resulted in complete failure to produce seed or fruit, but more frequently resulted in fewer seeds or in fruit of reduced viability or quantity. Losses in populations of specialized pollinators have directly affected the reproductive ability of some rare plants. People are increasingly occupying regions and localities that C16 are exposed to extreme events, thereby exacerbating human C19 vulnerability to natural hazards. This trend, along with the decline in the capacity of ecosystems to buffer from extreme events, has led to continuing high loss of life globally and rapidly rising economic losses from natural disasters. Cultural Services Cultural NA NA diversity (continued on page 36) EcosysTEMs AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 35 Table 2.2. TRENDS IN THE HuMAN Use oF EcosysTEM SERVICES AND ENHANCEMENT OR DEGRADATION OF THE SERVICE AROUND THE YEAR 2000 (See page 37 for legend.) (continued) Service Sub- Human category Use? Enhanced or Degraded’ Notes MA Chapter Cultural Services (continued) Spiritual and A religious values Knowledge NA systems Educational NA values Inspiration NA Aesthetic A values Social relations NA Sense of place NA Cultural NA heritage values Recreation and A ecotourism v NA NA NA NA NA +/- There has been a decline in the numbers of sacred groves and C17.2.3 other such protected areas. The loss of particular ecosystem attributes (sacred species or sacred forests), combined with social and economic changes, can sometimes weaken the spiritual benefits people obtain from ecosystems. On the other hand, under some circumstances (e.g., where ecosystem attributes are causing significant threats to people), the loss of some attributes may enhance spiritual appreciation for what remains. The demand for aesthetically pleasing natural landscapes has C17.2.5 increased in accordance with increased urbanization. There has been a decline in quantity and quality of areas to meet this demand. A reduction in the availability of and access to natural areas for urban residents may have important detrimental effects on public health and economies. The demand for recreational use of landscapes is increasing, C17.2.6 and areas are increasingly being managed to cater for this use, C19 to reflect changing cultural values and perceptions. However, many naturally occurring features of the landscape (e.g., coral reefs) have been degraded as resources for recreation. Supporting Services Soil formation t Photosynthesis T Primary t production 36 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WEL1-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis Several global MA systems, including dryland, forest, and cultivated systems, show a trend of NPP increase for the period 1981 to 2000. However, high seasonal and inter-annual variations associated with climate variability occur within this trend on the global scale Enhanced or Degraded? Service Sub- Human category Use? Supporting Services (continued) There have been large-scale changes in nutrient cycles in C12 Nutrient cycling t t Notes MA Chapter recent decades, mainly due to additional inputs from fertilizers, S7 livestock waste, human wastes, and biomass burning. Inland water and coastal systems have been increasingly affected by eutrophication due to transfer of nutrients from terrestrial to aquatic systems as biological buffers that limit these transfers have been significantly impaired. Water cycling Humans have made major changes to water cycles through structural changes to rivers, extraction of water from rivers, and, more recently, climate change. 3 For provisioning services, human use increases if the human consumption of the service increases (e.g., greater food consumption); for regulating and cultural services, human use increases if the number of people affected by the service increases. The time frame is in general the past 50 years, although if the trend has changed within that time frame, the indicator shows the most recent trend. > For provisioning services, we define enhancement to mean increased production of the service through changes in area over which the service is provided (e.g., spread of agriculture) or increased production per unit area. We judge the production to be degraded if the current use exceeds sustainable levels. For regulating and supporting services, enhancement refers to a change in the service that leads to greater benefits for people (e.g., the service of disease regulation could be improved by eradication of a vector known to transmit a disease to people). Degradation of a regulating and supporting services means a reduction in the benefits obtained from the service, either through a change in the service (e.g., mangrove loss reducing the storm protection benefits of an ecosystem) or through human pressures on the service exceeding its limits (e.g., excessive pollution exceeding the capability of ecosystems to maintain water quality). For cultural services, degradation refers to a change in the ecosystem features that decreases the cultural (recreational, aesthetic, spiritual, etc.) benefits provided by the ecosystem. The time frame is in general the past 50 years, although if the trend has changed within that time frame the indicator shows the most recent trend. © Low to medium certainty. All other trends are medium to high certainty. Legend: A = Increasing (for human use column) or enhanced (for enhanced or degraded column) Vv = Decreasing (for human use column) or degraded (for enhanced or degraded column) +/- = Mixed (trend increases and decreases over past 50 years or some components/regions increase while others decrease) NA =Not assessed within the MA. In some cases, the service was not addressed at all in the MA (such as ornamental resources), while in other cases the service was included but the information and data available did not allow an assessment of the pattern of human use of the service or the status of the service. + = The categories of “human use” and “enhanced or degraded” do not apply for supporting services since, by definition, these igen] services are not directly used by people. (Their costs or benefits would be double-counted if the indirect effects were included.) Changes in supporting services influence the supply of provisioning, cultural, or regulating services that are then used by people and may be enhanced or degraded. and detoxification, water purification, natural hazard protec- tion, regulation of air quality, regulation of regional and local climate, regulation of erosion, and many cultural services (the spiritual, aesthetic, recreational, and other benefits of ecosys- tems). Modifications of ecosystems to enhance one service gen- erally have come at a cost to other services that the ecosystem provided. For example, while the expansion of agriculture and its increased productivity are a success story of enhanced pro- duction of one key ecosystem service, this success has come at high and growing costs in terms of trade-offs with other ecosystem services, both through the direct impact of land cover change and as a result of water withdrawals for irrigation and release of nutrients into rivers. Globally, roughly 15-35% of irrigation withdrawals are estimated to be unsustainable (/ow to medium uncertainty). The impacts of these trade-offs among ecosystem services affect people in different ways. An aquacul- ture farmer, for instance, may gain material welfare from man- agement practices that increase soil salinization and thereby reduce rice yields and threaten food security for nearby subsis- tence farmers. Ecosystems AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 37 Trade-off analysis aided by qualitative and quantitative values for biodiversity and ecosystem services can help decision-makers make intelligent decisions among competing goals (R17). (See Figure 2.1.) Such analysis can identify management strategies that generate efficient outcomes in which it is not possible to increase one objective without decreasing another. Second, it can show the extent to which current decisions are inefficient and help identify opportunities for improving the status quo. Third, it illustrates the nature of the trade-offs between goals once the effi- ciency frontier has been reached. Values of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services for Human Well-being The importance of biodiversity and natural processes in pro- ducing ecosystem services that people depend on is not cap- tured in financial markets. Unlike goods bought and sold in markets, many ecosystem services do not have markets or readily observable prices. However, lack of a price does not mean lack of value. A substantial body of research on nonmarket valuation is now available for some ecosystem services, including clean drink- ing water, recreation, or commercially harvested species. Exis- gure 2.1. ErricleENcy FRONTIER ANALYSIS OF SPECIES PERSISTENCE AND ECONOMIC RETURNS The production possibility shows feasible combinations of species persistence and economic returns for a sample landscape based on the Willamette Basin in Oregon in the United States. The Figure shows results for 97 terrestrial vertebrates found in the basin and economic returns from agriculture and forestry production. Each land parcel can be put into a biological reserve, agriculture, or forestry. The land use pattern determines the value of economic returns from agriculture and forestry production and the pattern of habitat. For each species, persistence depends on the extent and pattern of suitable habitat (R1 7). Threshold of economic Number of species remaining production over which species extinction increases dramatically of 97 terrestrial vertebrates | 90 85 80 75 70 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Economic returns in million dollars Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 38 EcosysTEMs AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis a tence value of species and other “non-use” values pose a greater challenge to those who would try to measure the complete value of conserving biodiversity and natural processes. The fact that ecosystems are dynamic and complex, as well as the fact that human preferences change through time, also present difficulties for attempts to value natural systems. Combinations of irrevers- ible actions, such as species extinction, and uncertainty give rise to option value (such as the value of maintaining flexibility, keep- ing options open, until uncertainty is resolved). Though clear in theory, getting reasonable estimates of option value is difficult in practice (C2.3). Better quantification of the benefits derived from ecosystems would provide greater impetus for biodiversity protection and create a more transparent picture of the equitabil- ity of the distribution of benefits. Private and social values of conserving biodiversity and natu- ral systems often differ widely. The private use value of biodiver- sity and ecosystem services by individuals will typically ignore the “external” benefits of conservation that accrue to society in general. For example, a farmer may benefit from intensive use of the land but generally does not bear all the consequences caused by leaching of excess nutrients and pesticides into ground or surface water, or the consequences of loss of habitat for native species. If private decision-makers are not given the incentives to value the larger social benefits of conservation, their decisions will often result in inadequate conservation (C5.4). The indirect values of biodiversity conservation can be highly significant in comparison with the direct economic values derived from a particular area. (See Box 2.2.) In existing eco- nomic studies of changes to biodiversity in specific locations (such as the conversion of mangrove forests, degradation of coral reefs, and clear-felling of forests), the costs of ecosystem conyer- sion are often found to be significant and sometimes exceed the benefits of the habitat conversion. Despite this, in a number of these cases conversion was promoted because the value of the lost ecosystem services—the indirect value of biodiversity conserva- tion—was not internalized. In other instances, subsidies dis- torted the relative costs and benefits and provided the incentives to destroy biodiversity (C5). The depletion and degradation of many ecosystem services represents the loss of a capital asset that is poorly reflected in conventional indicators of economic growth or growth in human well-being (C2.3.5). A country could cut its forests and deplete its fisheries, and this would show only as a positive gain to GDP, despite the loss of the capital asset. (GDP measures the flow of economic benefits from the use of these resources, but the depletion of the capital asset is not reflected.) Moreover, many ecosystem services are available freely to those who use them (fresh water in aquifers, for instance, and the use of the atmo- sphere as a sink for pollutants) and so again their degradation is Relatively few studies have compared the total economic value of ecosystems under alternate management regimes. The results of several that attempted to do so are shown in the Figure. In each case where the total economic value of sustainable management practices was compared with management regimes involving conversion of the ecosystem or unsustainable prac- tices, the benefit of managing the ecosys- tem more sustainably exceeded that of the converted ecosystem even though the pri- vate benefits—that is, the actual monetary benefits captured from the services enter- ing the market—would favor conversion or unsustainable management. These stud- ies are consistent with the understanding that market failures associated with eco- system services lead to greater conversion of ecosystems than is economically justi- fied. However, this finding would not hold at all locations. For example, the value of con- version of an ecosystem in areas of prime agricultural land or in urban regions often exceeds the total economic value of the intact ecosystem (although even in dense urban areas, the TEV of maintaining some “green space” can be greater than develop- ment of these sites) (C5). & Conversion of tropical forest to small- scale agriculture or plantations (Mount Cam- eroon, Cameroon). Maintenance of the forest with lowimpact logging provided social bene- fits (NWFPs, sedimentation control, and flood prevention) and global benefits (carbon stor- age plus option, bequest, and existence val- ues) across the five study sites totaling some $3,400 per hectare. Conversion to small- scale agriculture yielded the greatest private benefits (food production), of about $2,000 per hectare. Across four of the sites, con- version to oil palm and rubber plantations resulted in average net costs (negative ben- efits) of $1,000 per hectare. Private bene- fits from cash crops were only realized in this case because of market distortions. @ Conversion of a mangrove system to aquaculture (Thailand). Although conver- sion for aquaculture made sense in terms of short-term private benefits, it did not once external costs were factored in. The global benefits of carbon sequestration were con- Economic Costs aND BENEFITS OF EcosysTEM CONVERSION (C5 Box 5.2) sidered to be similar in intact and degraded systems. However, the substantial social ben- efits associated with the original mangrove cover—from timber, charcoal, NWFPs, off- shore fisheries, and storm protection—fell to almost zero following conversion. Summing all measured goods and services, the TEV of intact mangroves was a minimum of $1,000 and possibly as high as $36,000 per hect- are, compared with the TEV of shrimp farm- ing, which was about $200 per hectare. @ Draining freshwater marshes for agricul- ture (Canada). Draining freshwater marshes in one of Canada’s most productive agri- cultural areas yielded net private benefits in large part because of substantial drain- age subsidies. However, the social benefits of retaining wetlands arising from sustain- able hunting, angling, and trapping greatly exceeded agricultural gains. Consequently, for all three marsh types considered, TEV was on average $5,800 per hectare, com- Economic BENEFITS UNDER ALTERNATE MANAGEMENT PRACTICES Net present value in dollars per hectare Intact wetland pared with $2,400 per hectare for con- verted wetlands. = Use of forests for commercial timber extraction (Cambodia). Use of forest areas for swidden agriculture and extraction of non-wood forest products (including fuel- wood, rattan and bamboo, wildlife, malva nuts, and medicine) as well as ecological and environmental functions such as water- shed, biodiversity, and carbon storage pro- vided a TEV ranging of $1,300-4,500 per hectare (environmental services accounted for $590 of that while NWFPs provided $700-3,900 per hectare). However, the pri- vate benefits associated with unsustainable timber harvest practices exceeded private benefits of NWFP collection. Private bene- fits for timber harvest ranged from $400 to $1,700 per hectare, but after accounting for lost services the total benefits were from $150 to $1,100 per hectare, significantly less than the TEV of more sustainable uses. SS Sustainably managed ecosystems | Converted ecosystems 4000 Sustainable forestry 3.000 Intensive farming Small-scale farming 2 000 a Traditional Intact forest use mangroves gi Wetland Canada Cameroon Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment EcosysTeEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 39 Tropical Forest Shrimp farming Unsustainable timber harvest Tropical Forest Cambodia Mangrove Thailand not reflected in standard economic measures. When changes to these natural capital assets are factored into measures of the inclusive wealth of nations, they significantly change the balance sheet for countries with economies largely dependent on natural resources. Some countries that appeared to have positive growth in the 1970s and 1980s, for example, actually experienced a net loss of capital assets, effectively undermining the sustainability of any gains they may have achieved. The Distributional Impacts of Biodiversity Loss and Ecosystem Change Biodiversity use, change, and loss have improved well-being for many social groups and individuals. But people with low resilience to ecosystem changes—mainly the disadvantaged— have been the biggest losers and witnessed the biggest increase in not only monetary poverty but also relative, temporary poverty and the depth of poverty (C5, C6, R17). See Box 2.3 for a description of various types of poverty. ConcEPTS AND MEasurRES OF POVERTY Relative poverty is the state of deprivation defined by social stan- dards. It is fixed by a contrast with others in the society who are not considered poor. Poverty is then seen as lack of equal opportuni- ties. It is based on subjective measures of poverty. Depth of poverty is a measure of the average income gap of the poor in relation to a certain threshold. It defines how poor the poor are. It gives the amount of resources needed to bring all poor peo- ple to the poverty-line level. Temporary poverty is characterized by a short-term deprivation, usually seasonal, of water or food. Monetary poverty is an insufficiency of income or monetary resources. Most indicators like the U.S. dollar a day indicator or national poverty lines are defined in those terms. Multidimensional poverty is conceived as a group of irreducible deprivations that cannot be adequately expressed as income insuf- ficiency. It combines basic constituents of well-being in a composite measure, such as the Human Poverty Index. Other characteristics of poverty commonly used in the literature include rural and urban poverty, extreme poverty (or destitution), female poverty (to indicate gender discrimination), and food-ratio poverty lines (with calorie-income elasticities). Other indices such as the FGT (Foster, Greer, and Thorbecke) or the Sen Index, which combine both dimensions of incidence and depth of poverty, are also widely used. The type of poverty experienced by individuals will therefore differ for different rates and levels of biodiversity and ecosystem services loss and if the loss is transitory or permanent. 40 EcosystEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis a Many communities depend on a range of biological prod- ucts for their material welfare. In addition, the transfer of ownership or use rights to ecosystem services like timber, fish- ing, and mining to privileged groups by governments have also excluded local communities from the use of these ecosystem services (R8). Provisions for ensuring the equitable distribu- tion of monetary benefits from the use of biological products are an issue of major concern. Even in cases where equitable provisioning has been made, implementation is being impaired by weak and ineffective institutions (C10). Poor people have historically disproportionately lost access to biological products and ecosystem services as demand for those services has grown. Coastal habitats are often converted to other uses, frequently for aquaculture ponds or cage cultur- ing of highly valued species such as shrimp and salmon. Despite the fact that the area is still used for food production, local residents are often displaced from their fishing grounds, and the fish produced are usually not for local consumption but for export. Coastal residents often no longer have access to cheap protein or sources of income (C18). The development of shrimp aquaculture has displaced local fishers who are not able to enter the capital- and technology-intensive shrimp fisheries (SG3). Food security and overall well-being is much better in situations where local communities—with particular focus on the poor and the disadvantaged—were involved and made partners in the access, use, and management of biodiversity. Changes in the equity structure of societies can have impacts on ecosystem services. Differential access to resources may also help to explain why some people living in environmental resource-rich areas nevertheless rank low in measures of human well-being. For example, economic lib- eralization in Viet Nam resulted in the development of a class of entrepreneurs with markedly greater access to capital. The poorer fishers were unable to enter the capital and technology- intensive shrimp fishery that developed. Furthermore, the ecological changes precipitated by the expansion of shrimp aquaculture reduced the capacity of the ecosystem to support the traditional fish stocks, further exacerbating the inequity (SG3.7). The increase in international trade of biological products has improved the well-being for many social groups and indi- viduals, especially in countries with well-developed markets and trade rules and among people in developing countries who have access to the biological products. However, many groups have not benefited from such trade. Some people who live near and are dependent on biodiversity-rich areas have experienced a drop in their well-being rather than an increase. Examples include the many indigenous groups and local com- munities who have relied on these products and the ecosystem services they support for many of the constituents of well- being. Weak and inefficient institutional structures that over- see the equitable distribution of benefits are key reasons for the inequitable distribution of benefits at the national and local levels. In addition, structural adjustment programs played a key role in pushing the poor further into destitution and forc- ing many to have no choice but to further stress ecosystem ser- vices (R17). Conflicts between competing social groups or individuals over access to and use of biological products and ecosystem services have contributed to declines in well-being for some groups and improvements for others. Sometimes different social groups have a conflict over how a given bundle of eco- system services or biological products ought to be used and shared. Although many such conflicts have been managed cooperatively, it is also common for one group to impose its preferred outcome on the others, leading to an improvement in well-being for one group at the expense of others. For example, if mountain communities convert forests into agri- cultural lands, they may reduce downstream water quality. When ecosystem change is linked to well-being change through this highly complex structure of interdependencies, there are both winners and losers. Some groups improve and other groups decline (C6). Box 2.4 describes some con- flicts that emerged in Chile over the mining industry and local communities. One of the main reasons some countries, social groups, or individuals—especially the disadvantaged—are more severely affected by biodiversity and ecosystem changes is limited access to substitutes or alternatives. When the qual- ity of water deteriorates, the rich have the resources to buy personal water filters or imported bottled water that the poor can ill afford. Similarly, urban populations in developing countries have easier access to clean energy sources because of easy access to the electrical grid, while rural communities have fewer choices. Poor farmers often do not have the option of substituting modern methods for services provided by biodi- versity because they cannot afford the alternatives. And, sub- stitution of some services may not be sustainable, and may have negative environmental and human health effects. For example, the reliance on toxic and persistent pesticides to control certain pests can have negative effects on the provision of services by the cultivated system and other ecosystems con- nected to the cultivated system (C.26.2). Many industrial countries maintain seed banks in response to the rapid rate of loss of crop genetic diversity and to make existing genetic diversity more readily available to plant breeders. Apart from the network of seed banks maintained in developing countries by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, for many developing countries creating such banks could pose a problem when electricity supplies are unreliable, fuel is costly, and there is a lack of human capacity (R17). Place-based or micro-level data and not macro-level or aggregated data provide more useful information to identify disadvantaged communities being affected by biodiversity and ecosystem changes. Most poverty statistics are only available at an aggregate level. These tend to hide pockets of poverty existing sometimes within traditionally defined “wealthy” regions or provinces. Therefore, using aggregate data to understand and establish links between biodiversity loss, ecosystem changes, and well-being can be quite mislead- ing (C5). ConFLicts BETWEEN THE MINING SECTOR AND Locat COMMUNITIES IN CHILE The Salar de Atacama, Chile, is a salty wetland within the driest desert in the world. Surface water is limited. The present major concern is over groundwater usage and the extent to which the exploitation is sustainable. The economic activities in this region include mining, agriculture, and tourism, all of which depend on the quantity and quality of available water. The Salar de Atacama holds over 40% of world lithium reserves; mining provides 12% of local employment and two thirds of the regional GDP. It also consumes 65% of the water used in the region. Tourism is the second larg- est source of employment and income, and tourist facilities need fresh water. Local communities rely on water for subsistence agri- culture and livestock raising. Most subsistence farmers do not have enough resources to buy water rights when bidding against the mining companies. Hence the shortage of water is generating major conflicts over access and ownership rights among compet- ing users (SG.SDM). EcosysTeMs AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 41 aa 3. What are the current trends and drivers of biodiversity loss? @ Across the range of biodiversity measures, current rates of loss exceed those of the historical past by several orders of magnitude and show no indication of slowing. & Biodiversity is declining rapidly due to land use change, climate change, invasive species, overexploitation, and pollu- tion. These result from demographic, economic, sociopolitical, cultural, technological, and other indirect drivers. B While these drivers vary in their importance among ecosystems and regions, current trends indicate a continuing loss of biodiversity. Recent and Current Trends in Biodiversity Across the range of biodiversity measures, current rates of change and loss exceed those of the historical past by several orders of magnitude and show no indication of slowing. At large scales, across biogeographic realms and ecosystems (biomes), declines in biodiversity are recorded in all parts of the habitable world. Among well-studied groups of species, extinction rates of organisms are high and increasing (medium certainty), and at local levels both populations and habitats are most commonly found to be in decline. (C4) CULTIVATION AND PASTURE Two biogeographic realms are omitted due to lack of data: Oceania and Antarctic. In the Nearctic, the amount of land under cultivation and pasture has stabilized, with no net change in cover since 1950. in percent of 1950 area -8% -6 4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8% Neotropical Australasian Indo-Malay Afrotropical Palearctic Decrease 4 Increase No change Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 42 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis gure 3.1. PERCENTAGE CHANGE 1950-90 IN LAND AREA OF BIOGEOGRAPHIC REALMS REMAINING IN NaTURAL CONDITION OR UNDER Virtually all of Earth’s ecosystems have now been dramat- ically transformed through human actions. More land was converted to cropland in the 30 years after 1950 than in the 150 years between 1700 and 1850 (C26). Between 1960 and 2000, reservoir storage capacity quadrupled (C7.2.4) and, as a result, the amount of water stored behind large dams is estimated to be three to six times the amount held by rivers (C7.3.2). Some 35% of mangroves have been lost in the last two decades in countries where adequate data are available (encompassing about half of the total mangrove area) (C19.2.1). Roughly 20% of the world’s coral reefs have been destroyed and an additional 20% have been degraded (C19.2.1). Although the most rapid changes in ecosystems are now taking place in developing countries, industrial countries historically experienced comparable changes. The biomes with the highest rates of conversion in the last half of the 20th century were temperate, tropical, and flooded grasslands and tropical dry forests (more than 14% lost between 1950 and 1990) (C4.4.3). Areas of particularly rapid change in terrestrial ecosystems over the past two decades include (C28.2): ® the Amazon basin and Southeast Asia (deforestation and expansion of croplands); @ Asia (land degradation in drylands); and @ Bangladesh, Indus Valley, parts of Middle East and Central Asia, and the Great Lakes region of Eastern Africa. Habitat conversion to agricultural use has affected all biogeographical realms. In all realms (except Oceania and Antarc- tica), at least a quarter of the area had Cultivated been converted to other land uses by 1950 Pasture (C4.4.4), and in the Indo-Malayan realm W Natural almost half of the natural habitat cover had been converted. In the 40 years from é } 1950 to 1990, habitat conversion has con- By blogecgraphie tinued in nearly all realms. (See Figure 3.1.) The temperate northern realms of the Nearctic and Palearctic are currently extensively cultivated and urbanized; how- ever, the amount of land under cultivation and pasture seems to have stabilized in the Note: Oceania and Antarctic are omitted due to lack of data Nearctic, with only small increases in the Palearctic in the last 40 years. The decrease in extensification of land under agricul- tural use in these areas is counterbalanced by intensification of agricultural practices in order to ensure continued food produc- tion for expanding human populations (C8, C26). Within the tropics, rates of land conversion to agricul- tural use range from very high in the Indo-Malayan realm to moderate in the Neotropics and the Afrotropics, where large increases in cropland area have taken place since the 1950s. Aus- tralasia has relatively low levels of cultivation and urbanization, but these have also increased in the last 40 years at a similar rate to those of the Neotropics. The majority of biomes have been greatly modified. Between 20% and 50% of 9 out of 14 global biomes have been trans- formed to croplands. Tropical dry forests were the most affected by cultivation between 1950 and 1990, although temperate grasslands, temperate broadleaf forests, and Mediterranean for- ests each experienced 55% or more conversion prior to 1950. Biomes least affected by cultivation include boreal forests and tundra. (See Figure 3.2.) While cultivated lands provide many provisioning services (such as grains, fruits, and meat), habitat conversion to agriculture typically leads to reductions in local native biodiversity (C4.4.3). Rates of human conversion among biomes have remained similar over at least the last century. For example, boreal forests had lost very little native habitat cover up to 1950 and have lost only a small additional percentage since then. In contrast, the temperate grasslands biome had lost nearly 70% of its native cover by 1950 and lost an additional 15.4% since then. Two biomes appear to be exceptions to this pattern: Mediterranean forests and temperate broadleaf forests. Both had lost the major- ity of their native habitats by 1950 but since then have lost less than 2.5% additional habitat. These biomes contain many of the world’s most established cities and most extensive surrounding agricultural development (Europe, the United States, the Medi- terranean basin, and China). It is possible that in these biomes the most suitable land for agriculture had already been converted by 1950 (C4.4.3). Over the past few hundred years, humans have increased the species extinction rate by as much as three orders of magnitude (medium certainty). This estimate is only of medium certainty because the extent of extinctions of undescribed taxa is unknown, the status of many described species is poorly known, it is difficult to document the final disappearance of very rare species, and there are extinction lags between the impact of a threatening process and the resulting extinction. However, the most definite information, based on recorded extinctions of known species over the past 100 years, indicates extinction rates are around 100 times greater than rates characteristic of species in the fossil record (C4.4.2). Other less direct estimates, some of which model extinctions hundreds of years into the future, esti- mate extinction rates 1,000 to 10,000 times higher than rates recorded among fossil lineages. (See Figure 3.3.) Figure 3.2. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN Native Hasirart Loss By 1950 AND ADDITIONAL LossES BETWEEN 1950 AND 1990 (C4 Fig 4.26) Loss 1950-90, in percentage 18 TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL DRY BROADLEAF FORESTS e 8 FLOODED GRASSLANDS e AND SAVANNAS @ TEMPERATE ; : ery TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL ; GRASSLANDS, SAVANNAS, Si SUAS 12 AND SHRUBLANDS 10 8 TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL @ CONIFEROUS FORESTS 6 DESERTS AND XERIC SHRUBLANDS @ MONTANE GRASSLANDS 4 AND SHRUBLANDS @ @ MANGROVES MEDITERRANEAN FORESTS, @ TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL WOODLANDS, AND SCRUB MOIST BROADLEAF FORESTS e ) Seneae @ TEMPERATE TEMPERATE BROADLEAF ‘te Seu RerSnonESTs @ AND MIXED FORESTS 01 @ TUNDRA 400 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 % Native land cover in 1950, in percentage Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 43 3. Species ExTINCTION Rates (Adapted from C4 F “Distant past” refers to average extinction rates Extinctions per thousand species per millennium as calculated from the fossil record. “Recent 100 000 _— past” refers to extinction rates calculated from pisient ected a “Gomes known extinctions of species (lower estimate) or (fossil record) jown extincti known extinctions plus “possibly extinct” species 10 000 Projected future extinction rate is more than ten times higher than current rate (upper bound). A species is considered to be “possibly extinct” if it is believed to be extinct by experts, but extensive surveys have not yet 1 000 been undertaken to confirm its disappearance. “Future” extinctions are model-derived estimates Current extinction rate using a variety of techniques, including species- 100 is up to one thousand area models, rates at which species are shifting ena than the to increasingly more threatened categories, BA ca extinction probabilities associated with the IUCN 104 than one went extinct categories of threat, impacts of projected habitat every, millennium loss on species currently threatened with habitat \ loss, and correlation of species loss with energy 1 consumption. The time frame and species groups gy Long-term average involved differ among the “future” estimates, but extinction rate in general refer to either future loss of species based on the level of threat that exists today, or current and future loss of species as a result of habitat changes taking place over the period of roughly 1970 to 2050. Estimates based on Marine Mammals Mammals Birds Amphibians All species the fossil record are low certainty. The lower SPECIES bound estimates for known extinctions are high Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment certainty, while the upper bound estimates are medium certainty; lower bound estimates for modeled extinctions are low certainty, and upper bound estimates are speculative. Between 12% and 52% of species within well-studied higher DIFFERENT BIOGEOGRAPHIC REALMS (C4) taxa are threatened with extinction, according to the IUCN Red List. Less than 10% of named species have been assessed in |. Rep List INDIcEs FoR Birps, 1988-2004, IN terms of their conservation status. Of those that have, birds have the lowest percentage of threatened species, at 12%. The patterns Le of threat are broadly similar for mammals and conifers, which have 23% and 25% of species threatened, respectively. The situation with amphibians looks similar, with 32% threatened, but information is more limited, so this may be an underesti- mate. Cycads have a much higher proportion of threatened species, with 52% globally threatened. In regional assessments, 92 ae Newinieal taxonomic groups with the highest proportion of threatened = — Afrotropical species tended to be those that rely on freshwater habitats (C4.4). === Australasian/Oceanic Threatened species show continuing declines in conservation s=== Palearctic ¢ ; P Gis | SE status, and species threat rates tend to be highest in the realms == Indo-Malay with highest species richness (C4.4). (See Figures 3.4 and 3.5.) a seca Threatened vertebrates are most numerous in the biomes with 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 intermediate levels of habitat conversion. Low-diversity biomes The Red List Index illustrates the relative rate at which sets of species (such as boreal forest and tundra) have low Species richness and change in overall threat status (i.e., projected relative extinction risk), based on population, range size, and trends as quantified by categories on the IUCN Red List. Source: Butchart et al. 2005 44 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis Density DistripuTion Map oF GLoBALLy THREATENED Birp Species Marrep at a RESOLUTION OF QUARTER-DEGREE GRID CELL (C4 Fig 4.25) Dark orange colors correspond to higher richness, dark blue to lowest. (n=1,213) Oceanic t Number of globally threatened bird species within a quarter-degree grid cell: Oo. 5 10 20. 25 JODOSSESSERRR Ree rene low Bird species density > high low threat rates and have experienced little conversion. Very highly converted habitats in the temperate zone had lower richness than tropical biomes, and many species vulnerable to conversion may have gone extinct already. It is in the high-diversity, moderately converted tropical biomes that the greatest number of threatened vertebrates are found (C4.4.3). (See Figure 3.6.) Among a range of higher taxa, the majority of species are currently in decline. Studies of amphibians globally, African mammals, birds in agricultural lands, British butterflies, Carib- bean corals, waterbirds, and fishery species show the majority of species to be declining in range or number. Increasing trends in species can almost always be attributed to management interven- tions, such as protection in reserves, or to elimination of threats such as overexploitation, or they are species that tend to thrive in human-dominated landscapes (C4.4.1). An aggregate indicator of trends in species populations—the Living Planet Index—uses published data on trends in natural populations of a variety of wild species to identify overall trends in species abundance. Although more balanced sampling would enhance its reliability, the trends are all declining, with the highest rate in freshwater habitats. (See Figure 3.7.) ~~’ Neotropical Oceanic | Indo-Malay Afrotropical <-2== & Australasian Antarctic aa = “_ Source: BirdLife International Biogeographic realm boundaries Genetic diversity has declined globally, particularly among domesticated species (C26.2.1). In cultivated systems, since 1960 there has been a fundamental shift in the pattern of intra- species diversity in farmers’ fields and farming systems as a result of the Green Revolution. Intensification of agricultural systems coupled with specialization by plant breeders and the harmonizing effects of globalization have led to a substantial reduction in the genetic diversity of domesticated plants and animals in agricultural systems. The on-farm losses of genetic diversity of crops have been partially offset by the maintenance of genetic diversity in gene banks. A third of the 6,500 breeds of domesticated animals are threatened with extinction due to their very small population sizes (C.26.2). In addition to culti- vated systems, the extinction of species and loss of unique pop- ulations that has taken place has resulted in the loss of unique genetic diversity contained in those species and populations. This loss reduces overall fitness and adaptive potential, and it limits the prospects for recovery of species whose populations are reduced to low levels (C4.4). EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 45 CONVERTED BY 1950 (C4) Number of threatened vertebrate species 0 500 1000 1500 Mediterranean forests, woodlands, and scrub Temperate grasslands, savannas, and shrublands 2000 2500 3000 Temperate broadleaf and mixed forests : pe ] Tropical and sub-tropical dry broadleaf forests Ea) 5 Flooded grasslands and savannas SRG S| Tropical and sub-tropical grasslands, savannas, and ghrublands Tropical and sub-tropical,coniferous forests») | Mangroves: Deserts and Xeric shrublands Montane grasslands and shrublands Temperate coniferous forests a | Boreal forests / Taiga Tundra 0 10 20 30 Tropical and sub-tropical moist broadleaf forests 40 50 60 70 Percent of each habitat converted by 1950 Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Globally, the net rate of conversion of some ecosystems has begun to slow, and in some regions ecosystems are returning to more natural states largely due to reductions in the rate of expansion of cultivated land, though in some instances such trends reflect the fact that little habitat remains for further con- version. Generally, opportunities for further expansion of culti- vation are diminishing in many regions of the world as the finite proportion of land suitable for intensive agriculture continues to decline (C26.ES). Increased agricultural productivity is also low- ering pressures for agricultural expansion. Since 1950, cropland areas in North America, Europe, and China have stabilized, and even decreased in Europe and China (C26.1.1). Cropland areas in the former Soviet Union have decreased since 1960 (C26.1.1). Within temperate and boreal zones, forest cover increased by approximately 3 million hectares per year in the 1990s, although about half of this increase consisted of forest plantations (C21.4.2). Translating biodiversity loss between different measures is not simple: rates of change in one biodiversity measure may underestimate or overestimate rates of change in another. The scaling of biodiversity between measures is not simple, and 46 EcosysTEMS AND Human WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis this is especially significant in the relationship between habitat area and species richness. Loss of habitat initially leads to less species loss than might be expected, but depending on how much habitat remains, rates of loss of habitat can underestimate rates of loss of species (C2.2.4, C4.5.1). Biotic homogenization, defined as the process whereby species assemblages become increasingly dominated by a small number of widespread species, represents further losses in biodiversity that are often missed when only considering changes in absolute numbers of species. Human activities have both negative and positive impacts on species. The many species that are declining as a result of human activities tend to be replaced by a much smaller number of expanding species that thrive in human-altered environments. The outcome is a more homogenized biosphere with lower species diversity at a global scale. One effect is that in some regions where diversity has been low because of isolation, the species diversity may actually increase—a result of invasions of non-native forms (this is true in continental areas such as the Netherlands as well as on oceanic islands). Recent data also indicate that the many losers and few winners tend to be non-randomly distributed among higher taxa and ecological groups, enhancing homogenization (C4.4). While biodiversity loss has been a natural part of the history of Earth’s biota, it has always been countered by origination and, except for rare events, has occurred at extremely slow rates. Currently, however, loss far exceeds origination, and rates are orders of magnitude higher than average rates in the past. Recall that biodiversity loss is not just global extinction, such as that faced by many threatened and endangered species, but declines in genetic, ecosystem, and landscape diversity are considered bio- diversity loss as well. Even if every native species were retained in an ecological preserve, if the majority of the landscape has been converted to high-intensity monoculture cropland systems, then biodiversity has declined significantly. Landscape homogenization is linked to biotic homogenization (C4). The patterns of threat and extinction are not evenly distrib- uted among species but tend to be concentrated in particular ecological or taxonomic groups. Ecological traits shared by species facing high extinction risk include high trophic level, low population density, long lifespan, low reproductive rate, and small geographical range size (C4.4.2). The degree of extinction risk also tends to be similar among related species, leading to the likelihood that entire evolutionary radiations can and have been lost. The majority of recorded species extinctions since 1500 have occurred on islands. However, predictions of increasing numbers of future extinctions suggest a significant shift from island to continental areas (C4.4.2). international environmental treaties) and that happen intermittently (such as droughts, wars, and economic crises). Reviews of case studies of deforestation and desertification reveal that the most common type of interaction is synergetic factor combinations: combined effects of multiple drivers that are amplified by reciprocal action and feedbacks (S7.4). Drivers interact across spatial, temporal, and organizational scales, and any specific ecosystem change is driven by a network of interactions among different drivers. Though some of the elements of these networks are global, the actual set of interac- tions that brings about an ecosystem change is more or less spe- cific to a particular place. For example, a link between increasing producer prices and the extension of production can be found in many places throughout the world. The strength of this effect, however, is determined by a range of location-specific factors including production conditions, the availability of resources and knowledge, and the economic situation of the farmer (S7.4). No single conceptual framework captures the broad range of case study evidence about the interactions among driv- ers. Based on the findings of the sub-global assessments of the MA and recent literature, some examples of causal linkages for ecosystem change can be given (SG-Portugal, SG-SAfMA). (See Figures 3.8 and 3.9 and Box 3.1.) Drivers of Biodiversity Change and Their Trends Biodiversity change is caused by a range of drivers. A driver is any natural or human-induced factor that directly or indirectly causes a change in an ecosystem. A direct driver unequivocally influences ecosystem processes. An indirect driver operates more diffusely, by altering one or more direct drivers. Important direct drivers affecting biodiversity are habitat change, climate change, invasive species, overexploitation, and pollution (CF4, C3, C4.3, $7). No single measure or indicator represents the totality of the various drivers. Some direct drivers of change have relatively straightforward indicators, such as fertilizer usage, water consumption, irrigation, and harvests. Indicators for other drivers, including invasion by non-native species, climate change, land cover conversion, and landscape fragmentation, are not as well developed, and data to measure them are not as readily available (S7). Changes in biodiversity and in ecosystems are almost always caused by multiple, interacting driv- ers. Changes are driven by combinations of drivers that work over time (such as population and income growth interacting with technological advances that lead to climate change) or level of organization (such as local zoning laws versus 3.7. THe Lrvine PLaner INDEX, 1970-2000 The index currently incorporates data on the abundance of 555 terrestrial species, 323 freshwater species, and 267 marine species around the world. While the index fell by some 40% between 1970 and 2000, the terrestrial index fell by about 30%, the freshwater index by about 50%, and the marine index by around 30% over the same period. Population Index = 100 in 1970 120 10 Terrestrial species Marine species 80 Freshwater species The Living Planet Index is an indicator of the state of the world’s biodiversity: it measures trends in populations of vertebrate species living in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems 60 All vertebrate species (Living Planet Index) 40 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Source: WWF, UNEP-WCMC EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 47 European Union ————————_ Small integration farm size European Common Agricultural Policy World Trade Organization agreements Reduced — . Political context agricultural Abandonment <——-— revenues | Economic growth Internal migrations Intensification | | of workers — | Increasing labor costs | Increasing purchasing power | | Sprawling |» tourism | i eee Urban and infrastructure Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Narura Resources (Adapted from SG7 Fig 7.7) ids : r-Land use changes Afforestation —————> . SUMMARY OF INTERACTIONS AMONG Drivers ASSOCIATED WITH THE OVEREXPLOITATION OF Fire Erosion Increased water pollution and consumption Coastal ecosystem degradation SO Commercial logging — Increased international markets Overexploitation for natural resources Fisheries of natural resources — Rake ea fisheries Strive for new places and resources Crop la/ loop Shift to new regions Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 48 EcosysteMs AND HuMAN WELI-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis Direct Drivers: EXAMPLE FROM SOUTHERN AFRICAN SUB-GLOBAL ASSESSMENT (SG-SAfMA) The direct drivers of biodiversity loss in southern Africa include the impacts of land use change, alien invasives, overgrazing, and over- harvesting—all of which have already had a large impact on the region's biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being, and all of which are likely to spread in the absence of interventions. The dominant direct driver of ecosystem change in southern Africa is considered to be widespread land use change that in some cases has led to degradation. Forests and woodlands are being converted to croplands and pastures at a rate somewhat slower than in Southeast Asia and the Amazon during the 1990s, but nev- ertheless sufficiently fast to endanger ecosystem services at a local scale. Half of the region consists of drylands, where overgraz- ing is the main cause of desertification. In the first half of the twenty-first century, climate change is a real threat to water supplies, human health, and biodiversity in southern Africa. The threats arise partly because the projected warming may, over large areas, be accompanied by a drying trend, and partly because of the low state of human welfare and weak governance, which increases vulnerability of humans to climate change. Although some of these threats have slowed in some regions (afforestation with monocultures of alien species in South Africa has decreased, for example), some have accelerated elsewhere (afforestation with alien species in Mozambique has increased, for instance, due to favorable growing conditions and weak regulation). Thus, the region's biodiversity remains vulnerable to land use change. In addi- tion, the more subtle problem of land degradation is considered a bigger threat in the region. Several studies indicate that the biodiversity of southern Africa is at risk. There is now evidence, for example, that it is declining in the northern part of its range, but stable in the southern part, as pre- dicted by the global change models. In addition, there is experimen- tal evidence that the recorded expansion of woody invasions into grasslands and savannas may be driven by rising global CO2 concen- trations. The ability of species to disperse and survive these pres- sures will be hampered by a fragmented landscape made inhospi- table by human activities. The Assessments of Impacts and Adapta- tions to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors project is currently analyzing response options that may conserve biodiversity under future climate and land cover scenarios in southern Africa. Indirect Drivers Biodiversity change is most clearly a consequence of the direct drivers. However, these reflect changes in indirect drivers—the root causes of changes in ecosystems. These can be classified into the following broad categories: change in economic activity, demographic change, sociopolitical factors, cultural and religious factors, and scientific and technological change. § Global economic activity increased nearly sevenfold between 1950 and 2000 (S7.SDM), and in the MA scenarios it is pro- jected to grow a further three- to sixfold by 2050. The many pro- cesses of globalization have amplified some driving forces of changes in ecosystem services and attenuated other forces by removing regional barriers, weakening national connections, and increasing the interdependence among people and between nations (S7.2.2). @ Global population doubled in the past 40 years, reaching 6 billion in 2000 (S7.2.1). It is projected to grow to 8.1—9.6 billion by 2050, depending on the scenario. Urbanization influences consumption, generally increasing the demand for food and energy and thereby increasing pressures on ecosystems globally. @ Over the past 50 years, there have been significant changes in sociopolitical drivers, including a declining trend in central- ized authoritarian governments and a rise in elected democra- cies, which allows for new forms of management, in particular adaptive management, of environmental resources (S7.2.3). Culture conditions individuals’ perceptions of the world, and by influencing what they consider important, it has implica- tions for conservation and consumer preferences and suggests courses of action that are appropriate and inappropriate. The development and diffusion of scientific knowledge and technol- ogies can on the one hand allow for increased efficiency in resource use and on the other hand can provide the means to increase exploitation of resources (S7.2.4, S7.2.5). Direct Drivers Direct drivers vary in their importance within and among systems and in the extent to which they are increasing their impact. Historically, habitat and land use change have had the biggest impact on biodiversity across biomes. Climate change is projected to increasingly affect all aspects of biodiversity, from individual organisms, through populations and species, to eco- system composition and function. Pollution, especially the depo- sition of nitrogen and phosphorus, but also including the impact of other contaminants, is also expected to have an increasing impact, leading to declining biodiversity across biomes. Overex- ploitation and invasive species have been important as well and continue to be major drivers of changes in biodiversity (C4.3). (See Figure 3.10.) For terrestrial ecosystems, the most important direct driver of change in the past 50 years has been land cover change (C4.3, SG7). Only biomes relatively unsuited to crop plants, such as deserts, boreal forests, and tundra, are relatively intact (C4). Deforestation and forest degradation are currently more exten- sive in the tropics than in the rest of the world, although data on boreal forests are especially limited (C21). Approximately 10— 20% of drylands are considered degraded (medium certainty), EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 49 e 3.10. Main Direct Drivers The cell color indicates the impact to date of each driver on biodiversity in each biome over the past 50-100 years. The arrows indicate the trend in the impact of the driver on biodiversity. Horizontal arrows indicate a continuation of the current level of impact; diagonal and vertical arrows indicate progressively increasing trends in impact. This Figure is based on expert opinion consistent with and based on the analysis of drivers of change in various chapters of the assessment report of the Condition and Trends Working Group. This Figure presents global impacts and trends that may be different from those in specific regions. Habitat Climate Invasive Over- pierenciel change change species exploitation phosphorus) on s|_+|_+| +| | — it ot | mm Dryland Se Tropical grassland 4 and savanna oe - ii | a ns eS ve mt -m-t St aa to a ve ‘i = | a a Driver's impact on biodiversity over the last century Driver's current trends Low Decreasing impact Moderate Baek Continuing impact High ae Increasing impact , Very rapid increase Very high Seg of the impact PIN Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 50 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis with the majority of these areas in Asia (C22). A study of the southern African biota shows how degradation of habitats led to loss of biodiversity across all taxa. (See Figure 3.11.) Cultivated systems (defined in the MA to be areas in which at least 30% of the landscape is in croplands, shifting cultivation, confined livestock production, or freshwater aquaculture in any par- ticular year) cover 24% of Earth’s surface. (See Figure 3.12.) In 1990, around 40% of the crop- land is located in Asia; Europe accounts for 16%, and Africa, North America, and South America each account for 13% (S7). For marine ecosystems, the most important direct driver of change in the past 50 years, in the aggregate, has been fishing. Fishing is the major direct anthropogenic force affecting the structure, function, and biodiversity of the oceans (C18). Fishing pressure is so strong in some marine systems that over much of the world the biomass of fish targeted in fisheries (including that of both the target species and those caught inci- dentally) has been reduced by 90% relative to lev- els prior to the onset of industrial fishing. In these areas a number of targeted stocks in all oceans have collapsed—having been overfished or fished above their maximum sustainable levels. Recent e 3.11. Errect oF INCREASING LanpD Use INTENSITY ON THE FRACTION OF INFERRED POPULATION 300 YEARS AGO OF DIFFERENT Taxa THAT REMAIN The vertical axis percentages refer to the share of southern Africa under the respective land uses. Human landscape modifications can also lead to increases of populations under conditions of light use (see amphibians). Average remaining percentage of population under each land use compared with the pre-colonial period (index =100), 300 years ago Aan Protected LightUse Degraded Cultivated Plantation Urban —» Land use type 100 80 In the | predominantly 60 Bird semiarid ~~ Birds landscapes of —— Amphibians southem 404 —— Reptiles Africa, urban areas provide —— Mammals artificial 204 ~~ Plants waterpoints for amphibians 02 ee ee eee eee More Land use intensity More natural artificial Protected areas: assumed to have intact biodiversity and therefore used as a reference Light use: natural vegetation productively used (e.g., for grazing) within the limits of sustainability Degraded: natural vegetation where intensity of use exceeds the natural productive capacity studies have demonstrated that global fisheries landings peaked in the late 1980s and are now declining despite increasing effort and fishing power, with little evidence of this trend reversing under current practices (C18.3). In addition to the landings, the average trophic level of global landings is declining, which implies that we are increasingly relying on fish that originate from the lower part of marine food webs (C18.3). (See Figures 3.13 and 3.14.) Destructive fishing is also a factor in shallower waters; bottom trawling homogenizes three-dimensional benthic habitats and dramatically reduces biodiversity. For freshwater ecosystems, depending on the region, the most important direct drivers of change in the past 50 years include physical changes, modification of water regimes, invasive spe- cies, and pollution. The loss of wetlands worldwide has been speculated to be 50% of those that existed in 1900. However, the accuracy of this figure has not been established due to an absence of reliable data (C20.3.1). Massive changes have been made in water regimes. In Asia, 78% of the total reservoir volume was constructed in the last decade, and in South America almost 60% of all reservoirs were built since the 1980s (C20.4.2). Water with- drawals from rivers and lakes for irrigation or urban or industrial use increased sixfold since 1900 (C7.2.2). Globally, humans now use roughly 10% of the available renewable freshwater supply, Cultivated: cropland and planted pastures Plantation: monocultures of exotic trees, mainly eucalyptus and pine species Urban: built-up urban and high-impact mining landscapes Source: Scholes and Biggs 2004 although in some regions, such as the Middle East and North Africa, humans use 120% of renewable supplies—the excess is obtained through mining groundwater (C7.2.3). The introduc- tion of non-native invasive species is now a major cause of species extinction in freshwater systems. It is well established that the increased discharge of nutrients causes intensive eutrophication and potentially high levels of nitrate in drinking water and that pollution from point sources such as mining has had devastating impacts on the biota of inland waters (C20.4). Apparently stable areas of habitat may suffer from fragmen- tation, with significant impacts on their biodiversity (C4.3.1). Fragmentation is caused by natural disturbance (such as fires or wind) or by land use change and habitat loss, such as the clearing of natural vegetation for agriculture or road construction, which divides previously continuous habitats. Larger remnants, and EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 51 . EXTENT OF CULTIVATED MS, 2000 (C26) EQUATOR EQUATOR (9) Cultivated Systems: Areas in which at least 30% of the landscape is cultivated Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 3. DECLINE IN Tropuic LEVEL OF FisHERIES CATCH SINCE 1950 (C18) A trophic level of an organism is its position in a food chain. Levels are numbered according to how far particular organisms are along the chain from the primary producers (level 1), to herbivores (level 2), to predators (level 3), to carnivores or top carnivores (level 4 or 5). Fish at higher trophic levels are typically of higher economic value. The decline in the trophic level harvested is largely a result of the overharvest of fish at higher trophic levels. Mean trophic level Mean trophic level Mean trophic level 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2 y"2 EcosysTEMS AND HUMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis remnants that are close to other remnants, are less affected by fragmentation. Small fragments of habitat can only support small populations, which tend to be more vulnerable to extinction. Moreover, habitat along the edge of a fragment has a different climate and favors different species to the interior. Small frag- ments are therefore unfavorable for those species that require interior habitat, and they may lead to the extinction of those spe- cies. Species that are specialized to particular habitats and those whose dispersal abilities are weak suffer from fragmentation more than generalist species with good dispersal ability (C4.3.1). Fragmentation affects all biomes, but especially forests (see Fig- ure 3.15) and major freshwater systems (see Figure 3.16). Invasive alien species have been a major cause of extinction, especially on islands and in freshwater habitats, and they con- tinue to be a problem in many areas. In freshwater habitats, the introduction of alien species is the second leading cause of spe- cies extinction, and on islands it is the main cause of extinction over the past 20 years, along with habitat destruction. Awareness about the importance of stemming the tide of invasive alien spe- cies is increasing, but effective implementation of preventative measures is lacking. The rate of introductions continues to be extremely high; for example, in New Zealand plant introductions alone have occurred at a rate of 11 species per year since Euro- pean settlement in 1840 (C4.3.2). Overexploitation remains a serious threat to many species and populations. Among the most commonly overexploited spe- cies or groups of species are marine fish and invertebrates, trees, and animals hunted for meat. Most industrial fisheries are either . EstimaTED GLOBAL Marine FisH Catcu, 1950-2001 (C18 Fig 18.3) In this Figure, the catch reported by governments is in some cases adjusted to correct for likely errors in data. Million tons 0 { Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment fully or overexploited, and the impacts of overharvesting are coupled to destructive fishing techniques that destroy habitat, as well as associated ecosystems such as estuaries and wetlands. Even recreational and subsistence fishing has contributed to what is known as the “shifting baselines” phenomenon, in which what we consider the norm today is dramatically different from pre- exploitation conditions. Many of the current concerns with overexploitation of bush- meat (wild meat taken from the forests by local people for income or subsistence) are similar to those of fisheries, where sustainable levels of exploitation remain poorly understood and where the offtake is difficult to manage effectively. Although the true extent of exploitation is poorly known, it is clear that rates of offtake are extremely high in tropical forests. The trade in wild plants and animals and their derivatives is poorly documented but is esti- mated at nearly $160 billion annually. It ranges from live animals for the food and pet trade to ornamental plants and timber. Because the trade in wild animals and plants crosses national borders, the effort to regulate it requires international cooperation to safeguard certain species from overexploitation (C4.3.4). Over the past four decades, nutrient loading has emerged as one of the most important drivers of ecosystem change in ter- restrial, freshwater, and coastal ecosystems. While the intro- duction of nutrients into ecosystems can have both beneficial and adverse effects, the beneficial effects will eventually reach a plateau as more nutrients are added (for example, additional inputs will not lead to further increases in crop yield), while the harmful effects will continue to grow. Synthetic production of nitrogen fertilizer has been the key driver for the remarkable increase in food production of the past 50 years (S7.3). (See Fig- ure 3.17.) The total amount of reactive, or biologically available, nitrogen created by human activities increased ninefold between 1890 and 1990, with most of that increase taking place in the second half of the century in association with increased use of fertilizers (C7.3.2). More than half of all the synthetic nitrogen fertilizers ever used on Earth have been used since 1985 (R9.2). Humans now produce more reactive nitrogen than is produced by all natural pathways combined (R9.ES). Nitrogen application has increased fivefold since 1960, but as much as 50% of the nitrogen fertil- izer applied may be lost to the environment. Phosphorus appli- cation has increased threefold since 1960, with steady increase until 1990, followed by leveling off at a level about equal to applications in 1980. (See Figure 3.18.) These changes are mir- rored by phosphorus accumulation in soils, which can serve as an indicator of eutrophication potential for freshwater lakes and phosphorus-sensitive estuaries. Potential consequences include eutrophication of freshwater ecosystems, hypoxia in coastal marine ecosystems, nitrous oxide emissions contributing to global (continued on page 56) EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 53 5. EsriMATES OF FoREST FRAGMENTATION DUE TO ANTHROPOGENIC Causes (C4) : yam Foe Asia and Northwest Pacific Africa Southeast Asia, Australia, and Pacific | The analysis was made only in forest | biomes. Black zones are nonforested | areas in the analysis neighborhood. Source: Wade et al. 2003 2 54 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis Unfragmented _-_» forest \ Forest highly fragmented by human land uses i Forest highly fragmented ——> by non-forest natural land cover South America EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 55 FRAGMENTATION AND FLow IN Major Rivers (C20) EQUATOR River channel fragmentation and flow regulation ) Unfragmented |] Moderately fragmented 9) Highly fragmented Ff | No data or not assessed eg climate change, and air pollution by NO, in urban areas. Occur- rence of such problems varies widely in different regions (S7.3). (See Figure 3.19.) Climate change in the past century has already had a measur- able impact on biodiversity. Observed recent changes in climate, especially warmer regional temperatures, have already had signifi- cant impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems, including causing changes in species distributions, population sizes, the timing of reproduction or migration events, and an increase in the fre- quency of pest and disease outbreaks. Many coral reefs have undergone major, although often partially reversible, bleaching episodes when local sea surface temperatures have increased dur- ing one month by 0.5—1° Celsius above the average of the hottest months (R13.1.3). Precipitation patterns have changed spatially and temporally, and global average sea level rose 0.1—-0.2 meters (S7.ES). By the end of the century, climate change and its impacts may be the dominant direct driver of biodiversity loss and changes in ecosystem services globally. 56 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis EQUATOR _- an Source: World Resources Institute 2004 = Recent studies, using the climate envelope/species-area tech- nique, estimated that the projected changes in climate by 2050 could lead to an eventual extinction of 15-52% of the subset of 1,103 endemic species (mammals, birds, frogs, reptiles, butterflies, and plants) analyzed (R13.1.3). While the growing season in Europe has lengthened over the last 30 years, in some regions of Africa the combination of regional climate changes and anthropogenic stresses has led to decreased cereal crop pro- duction since 1970. Changes in fish populations have been linked to large-scale climate oscillations; El Nifio events, for instance, have affected fisheries off the coasts of South America and Africa, and decadal oscillations in the Pacific have affected fisheries off the west coast of North America (R13.1.3). The scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change project an increase in global mean surface tem- perature of 2.0-6.4° Celsius above preindustrial levels by 2100, increased incidence of floods and droughts, and a rise in sea level of an additional 8-88 centimeters between 1990 and 2100. (See Figure 3.20.) Harm to biodiversity will grow worldwide with increasing rates of change in climate and increasing absolute amounts of change. In contrast, some ecosystem services in some regions may initially be enhanced by projected changes in climate (such as increases in temperature or precipitation), and thus these regions may experience net benefits at low levels of climate change. As climate change becomes more severe, however, the harmful impacts on ecosystem services outweigh the benefits in most regions of the world. The balance of scientific evidence sug- gests that there will be a significant net harmful impact on eco- system services worldwide if global mean surface temperature increases more than 2° Celsius above preindustrial levels or at rates greater than 0.2° Celsius per decade (medium certainty) .Cli- mate change is projected to further adversely affect key develop- ment challenges, including providing clean water, energy services, and food; maintaining a healthy environment; and con- serving ecological systems and their biodiversity and associated ecological goods and services (R13.1.3). @ Climate change is projected to exacerbate the loss of biodiversity and increase the risk of extinc- tion for many species, especially those already at risk due to factors such as low population num- bers, restricted or patchy habitats, and limited climatic ranges (medium to high certainty). @ Water availability and quality are projected to decrease in many arid and semiarid regions (high certainty). @ The risk of floods and droughts is projected to increase (high certainty). @ The reliability of hydropower and biomass production is projected to decrease in some regions (high certainty). @ The incidence of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue and of waterborne diseases such as cholera is projected to increase in many regions (medium to high certainty), and so too are heat stress mortality and threats of decreased nutrition in other regions, along with severe weather traumatic injury and death (high certainty). B Agricultural productivity is projected to decrease in the tropics and sub-tropics for almost any amount of warming (/ow to medium cer- tainty), and there are projected adverse effects on fisheries. ® Projected changes in climate during the twenty-first century are very likely to be without precedent during at least the past 10,000 years and, combined with land use change and the spread of exotic or alien species, are likely to limit both the capability of species to migrate and the ability of species to persist in fragmented habitats. Present-day threats are often multiple and of greater intensity than historical threats. The susceptibility of an ecological community to a given threat will depend on the events of the past that have shaped the current biota. If the current threats are novel, they will have dramatic effects on populations, since spe- n cies will lack adaptations. Even if drivers are similar to past driv ers (climate, for example, has always been variable to some degree), the intensity of some current-day drivers is unprece- dented (such as the rates and extent of habitat change). Further- more, today’s drivers of extinction are often multiple—land use change, emerging disease, and invasive species are all occurring together, for instance. Because exposure to one threat type often makes a species more susceptible to a second, exposure to a sec- ond makes a species more susceptible to a third, and so on, con- secutive, multiple threats to species may have unexpectedly dramatic impacts on biodiversity ($7.4, C4.3). e 3.17. TRENDs IN GLOBAL USE oF NITROGEN FERTILIZER, 1961—2001 (million tons) (S7 Fig 7.16) Million tons 90 The dip at the end of the 1980s is due to the economic disruptions accompanying the dissolution of the Soviet Union 80 70 World 60 50 Developing countries 40 30 Industrial countries 4 20 Eastern Europe and 10 former Soviet Union 0 1961 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2002 4 excluding Eastern Europe aiid former Soviet Union Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 3.18. WorLpD PHospuHateE FERTILIZER UsE, 1961-2000 (million tons) (S7 Fig 7.18) Million tons 50 Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union 40 World 30 | Developing countries 20 industrial countries @ 10 0 1961 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2002 4 excluding Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment EcosysTeEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 57 3.19. Estimarep Tota Reactive NirroGEN DEPOSITION FROM THE ATMOSPHERE (WET AND Dry) IN 1860, EARLY 1990S, AND PROJECTED FOR 2050 (milligrams of nitrogen per square meter per year) (R9 Fig 9.2) Atmospheric deposition currently accounts for roughly 12% of the reactive nitrogen entering terrestrial and coastal marine ecosystems globally, although in some regions, atmospheric deposition accounts for a higher percentage (about 33% in the United States). (Note: the projection was included in the original study and is not based on MA scenarios.) 5 25 50 Source: Galloway et al. 2004 58 EcosysTEMS AND Human WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 500 750 1000 2000 5000 OO Each driver has a characteristic spa- tial and temporal scale at which it affects ecosystem services and human well-being. Climate change may oper- ate on a spatial scale of a large region; political change may operate at the scale of a nation or a municipal district. Sociocultural change typically occurs slowly, on a time scale of decades, while economic forces tend to occur more rapidly. Because of the variability in ecosystems, their services, and human well-being in space and time, there may be mismatches or lags between the scale of the driver and the scale of its effects on ecosystem services (S7, SG7.3.5). The fate of declining species and habitats will depend on sources of inertia and the speed of their response to management interventions. Natural sources of inertia correspond to the time scales inherent to natural systems; for example, recovery of a population cannot proceed more quickly than the average turnover or generation time, and established recovery will often take several generations. On top of this is anthropogenic inertia resulting from the time scales inherent in human institu- tions for decision-making and imple- mentation. For most systems, these two sources of inertia will lead to delays of years, and more often decades, in slow- ing and reversing a declining biodiver- sity trend. This analysis assumes that the drivers of change could indeed be halted or reversed in the near term. Yet currently there is little evidence that any of the direct or indirect drivers are slow- ing or that any are well controlled at the large to global scale. More significantly, we have net yet seen all of the conse- quences of changes that occurred in the past (C4, RS, $7, S10). The delay between a driver affecting a system and its conse- about half of the species losses may occur over a period of 100 to quences for biodiversity change can be highly variable. In the 1,000 years. Therefore, humans have the opportunity to deploy relatively well studied case of species extinctions, habitat loss is active habitat restoration practices that may rescue some of the known to be a driver with particularly long lag times. In studies species that otherwise would have been in a trajectory toward of tropical forest bird species the time from habitat fragmenta- extinction. Notwithstanding this, habitat restoration measures tion to species extinction has been estimated to have a half-life of will not be likely to save the most sensitive species, which will decades to hundreds of years. Overall, these results suggest that become extinct soon after habitat loss (C4.5.2). ‘e 3.20. HisToRICAL AND PROJECTED VARIATIONS IN EARTH'S SURFACE TEMPERATURE Estimated global temperature averages for the past 1,000 years, with projections to 2100 depending on various plausible scenarios for future human behavior. Differences in temperature in °Celsius from the 1990 value ee Direct Model Estimation of temperature based on indirect measurements measurements _ projections <—_!__> «> EEE 5.54- 5.0 is 45 Range of IPCC 40 Si scenario projections Lil 35 TI 3.0 25 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2002 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 59 ce 4. What is the future for biodiversity and ecosystem services under plausible scenarios? @ In the range of plausible scenarios explored by the MA, biodiversity will continue to be lost at extremely high rates over the next 50 years. Given inertia in the indirect drivers and in ecosystems, this loss cannot be halted over this time period. Nonetheless, opportunities exist to reduce the rate of loss of biodiversity and associated ecosystem services if society places an emphasis on ecosystem protection, restoration, and management. Statements of certainty in the following conclusions are conditional statements in that they refer to level of certainty or uncertainty in the particular projection should that scenario and its associated changes in drivers unfold. Global Scenarios and Ecosystem Change The scenarios developed by the MA project continued loss of biodiversity, with attendant changes in ecosystems services and declines in human well-being in some regions and populations. The MA scenarios address the consequences of different plausible futures for ecosystem services and human well-being (S5). (See Box 4.1.) These futures were selected to explore a wide range of contexts under which development will be pursued, as well as a wide range of approaches to development. Two basic contrasts are explored, one in which the world becomes increasingly globalized and the other in which it becomes increasingly regionalized. In the first case we see a focus on global markets and policies and on supranational institutions fostering interna- tional cooperation, while in the regionalized world there is an emphasis on local and national institutions and on regional mar- kets, and little attention is paid to the global commons. In terms of approaches, the scenarios focus either on a reactive attitude toward environmental problems or on futures that emphasize proactive management of ecosystems and their ser- vices. In the reactive approach, the environmental problems that threaten human well-being are dealt with only after they become apparent, and, in general, people believe that the necessary knowledge and technology to address environmental challenges will emerge or can be developed as needed. The proactive ecosys- tem management approach focuses on ecosystem engineering or adaptive management to maximize the delivery of ecosystem ser- vices while reducing the impact of human activities and to enhance ecosystem resilience. Habitat loss caused by land use change will lead, with high certainty, to continuing decline in the local and global diversity of some taxa, especially vascular plants, in all four scenarios ($10.2). Habitat conversion between 1970 and 2050 ranges from 13% to 20% (see Figure 4.1) as projected by the IMAGE model, leading to local and global extinctions as populations approach equilibrium with the remnant habitat. Analysis using the well- established species-area relationship indicates that the number of AN OUTLINE OF THE Four MA ScENaRIOS It is important to remember that no scenario will match the future as it actually occurs. None of the scenarios represents a “best” path or a “worst” path. There could be com- binations of policies and practices that pro- duce significantly better or worse outcomes than any of these scenarios. The future will represent a mix of approaches and conse- quences described in the scenarios, as well as events and innovations that could not be imagined at the time of writing (S5). The focus on alternative approaches to sustaining ecosystem services distinguishes the MA scenarios from previous global sce- nario exercises. The four approaches were developed based on interviews with leaders in NGOs, governments, and business on five continents, on scenario literature, and on pol- icy documents addressing linkages between ecosystem change and human well-being. The approach to scenario development used in the MA consists of a combination of qual- itative storyline development and quantita- tive modeling based on assumptions about the evolution of indirect drivers such as eco- nomic and population growth (S6). The Global Orchestration scenario explores the possibilities of a world in which global economic and social poli- cies are the primary approach to sus- tainability. The recognition that many of the most pressing global problems seem to have roots in poverty and inequality evokes fair policies to improve the well-being of those in poorer countries by removing trade barriers and subsidies. Environmental problems are dealt with in an ad-hoc reactive manner, as it is assumed that improved economic well- 60 EcosysTEMS AND Human WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis being will eventually create demand for and the means to achieve environmental protec- tion. Nations also make progress on global environmental problems, such as greenhouse gas emissions and the depletion of pelagic marine fisheries. However, some local and regional environmental problems are exac- erbated. The results for ecosystem services are mixed. Human well-being is improved in many of the poorest countries (and in some rich countries), but a number of ecosystem services deteriorate by 2050, placing at risk the long-term sustainability of the well-being improvements. The Order from Strength scenario examines the outcomes of a world in which protection through boundaries becomes paramount. The policies enacted in this scenario lead to a world in which the species lost at equilibrium (that is, the number of species that can be supported by the habitat remaining by 2050) is likely to be approximately 10-15% of the species present in 1970 (ow cer- tainty), and other factors such as overharvesting, invasive species, pollution, and climate change will further increase the rate of extinction. The two scenarios that take a more proactive approach to the environment ( TechnoGarden and Adapting Mosaic) have more success in reducing terrestrial biodiversity loss in the near future than the two scenarios that take a reactive approach to environmental issues (S10.2). The scenario with a focus on security through boundaries (Order from Strength) has the highest rate of biodiversity loss. It is important to note that all the projected extinctions will not have occurred by 2050. Habitat and vascular plant populations are projected to be lost in the MA scenarios at the fastest rate in warm mixed forests, savannas, scrub, tropical forests, and tropical woodlands (high certainty) (S10.2). Ina few biomes, expected changes post-1990 are greater that those seen in the past half-century. Regions that will lose species at the lowest rate include those with low human impact as well as those where major land use changes and human intervention have already occurred, such as the Palearctic (S10.2). (See Figures 4.2 and 4.3.) Tropical 1.1. Losses oF HasitaT as a REsutt oF LAND Use CHANGE BETWEEN 1970 AND 2050 AND REDUCTION IN THE Equitisprium NUMBER OF VASCULAR PLANT SPECIES UNDER THE MA Scenarios (S10.2) Extinctions of vascular plants will occur between now and sometime after 2050, when populations reach equilibrium with the remaining habitat. Relative losses Order from in percent of 1970 numbers Strength Global as Orchestration Adapting Mosaic 10 a ; 3) 1 2 1 2 TechnoGarden [ | 1: habitat loss (in percent of 1970 habitat) | 2: biodiversity loss (in percent of 1970 total number of vascular plant species) | t =| Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment rich protect their borders, attempting to con- fine poverty, conflict, environmental degrada- tion, and deterioration of ecosystem services to areas outside the borders. These prob- lems often cross borders, however, imping- ing on the well-being of those within. The Adapting Mosaic scenario explores the benefits and risks of envi- ronmentally proactive local and regional management as the primary approach to sustainability. In this scenario, lack of faith in global institutions, combined with increased understanding of the importance of resilience and local flexibility, leads to approaches that favor experimentation and local control of ecosystem management. The results are mixed, as some regions do a good job managing ecosystems but oth- ers do not. High levels of communication and interest in learning leads regions to compare experiences and learn from one another. Gradually the number of successful experi- ments begins to grow. While global problems are ignored initially, later in the scenario they are approached with flexible strategies based on successful experiences with locally adap- tive management. However, some systems suffer long-lasting degradation. The TechnoGarden scenario explores the potential role of technology in pro- viding or improving the provision of ecosystem services. The use of technol- ogy and the focus on ecosystem services is driven by a system of property rights and valuation of ecosystem services. In this sce- nario, people push ecosystems to their limits of producing the optimum amount of ecosys- tem services for humans through the use of EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 61 technology. Often, the technologies they use are more flexible than today's environmental engineering, and they allow multiple needs to be met from the same ecosystem. Provi- sion of ecosystem services in this scenario is high worldwide, but flexibility is low due to high dependence on a narrow set of opti- mal approaches. In some cases, unexpected problems created by technology and ero- sion of ecological resilience lead to vulner- able ecosystem services, which may break- down. In addition, the success in increasing the production of ecosystem services often undercuts the ability of ecosystems to sup- port themselves, leading to surprising inter- ruptions of some ecosystem services. These interruptions and collapses sometimes have serious consequences for human well-being. 4.2.. RELATIVE Loss oF BIODIVERSITY OF VASCULAR PLANTS BETWEEN 1970 AND 2.050 AS A RESULT OF LAND Use CHANGE FOR DIFFERENT BIOMES AND REALMS IN THE ORDER FROM STRENGTH SCENARIO (S10.2) Extinctions will occur between now and sometime after 2050, when populations reach equilibrium with remaining habitat. Note that the biomes in this Figure are from the IMAGE model (see Figure 4.3) and are slightly different from the biomes mentioned elsewhere in this report. Land use changes causing habitat loss are associated primarily with fur- ther expansion of agriculture and, sec- ondarily, with the expansion of cities and infrastructure (S9.8). This expan- sion is caused by increases in popula- Percent of 1970 total number of species 0 -5 - 10 -15 -20 -25 Sas Afrotropical Indo-Malay Nearctic Neotropical Australasian/Oceanic Palearctic Warm mixed forest Temperate deciduous forest Savanna Shrub Tropical woodland Temperate mixed forest Tropical forest Wooded tundra Grassland / steppe Cool coniferous forest Desert Tundra Boreal forest Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Africa is the region that will lose the most vascular plant species, mainly as a result of rapid population growth and strong increases in per capita food production in the region, much of which continues to rely on expansion of cultivated area. The Indo-Malayan region loses the second-most biodiversity. Past and projected future trends in habitat change indicate that the biomes that have already suffered the greatest change (Mediterra- nean forests and temperate grasslands) show the highest recover- ies over the next 50 years, while the biomes that suffered intermediate changes in the past have the highest rates of change in the near future. (See Figure 4.4.) Finally, biomes at higher lati- tudes that had not been converted to agriculture in the past will continue to be relatively unchanged. 62 EcosysTEMs AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis by realm by terrestrial biome using the IMAGE Land-cover biomes definition tion, economic growth, and changing consumption patterns. By 2050, global population increases (medium to high certainty) to 8.1—9.6 billion, depending on the scenario. At the same time, per capita GDP expands by a factor of 1.9— 4.4 depending on the scenario (low to - 30 -35% medium certainty). Demand is damp- ened by increasing efficiency in the use of resources. The expansion of agricul- tural land occurs mainly in developing countries and arid regions, whereas in industrial countries, agricultural area declines. (See Figure 4.5.) The reverse pattern occurs in terms of forest cover, - 30 -35% with some forest being regained in industrial countries but with 30% of the forest in the developing world being lost from 1970 to 2050, resulting in a global net loss of forest. The two scenarios with a proactive approach to the environment (TZechnoGarden and Adapting Mosaic) are the most land- conserving ones because of increasingly 2020 2050 efficient agricultural production, lower meat consumption, and lower popula- tion increases. Existing wetlands and the services they provide (such as water purification) are at increasing risk in some areas due to reduced runoff or intensified land use. For the three drivers tested across scenarios regarding terres- trial systems, land use change is projected to be the dominant driver of biodiversity loss, followed by changes in climate and nitrogen deposition. But there are differences between biomes (medium certainty) (S10.2). For example, climate change will be the dominant driver of biodiversity change in tundra, boreal for- est, cool conifer forest, savanna, and deserts. Nitrogen deposition will be an important driver in warm mixed forests and temperate deciduous forest. These two ecosystems are sensitive to nitrogen deposition and include densely populated areas. Considering these three drivers together, the total loss of vascular plant diver- sity from 1970 to 2050 ranges from 13% to 19%, depending on the scenario (/ow certainty). The impact of other important driv- ers, such as overexploitation and invasive species, could not be assessed as fully, suggesting that terrestrial biodiversity loss may be larger than the above projection. Vast changes are expected in world freshwater resources and hence in their provisioning of ecosystem services (S9.4.5). (See Figure 4.6.) Under the two scenarios with a reactive approach to the environment (Order from Strength and Global Orchestration), massive increases in water withdrawals in developing countries are projected to lead to an increase in untreated wastewater dis- charges, causing a deterioration of freshwater quality. Climate change leads to both increasing and declining river runoff, depending on the region. The combination of huge increases in water withdrawals, decreasing water quality, and decreasing run- off in some areas leads to an intensification of water stress over wide areas. In sum, a deterioration of the services provided by freshwater resources (such as aquatic habitat, fish production, and water supply for households, industry and agriculture) is expected under the two scenarios with a reactive approach to the environment, with a less severe decline under the other two sce- narios (medium certainty). Fish populations are projected to be lost from some river basins under all scenarios due to the combined effects of cli- mate change and water withdrawals. Under all scenarios, water oy EQUATOR GH Tropical forest GB Cool coniferous forest ©) Tropical woodland —) Boreal forest Temperate mixed forest ©) Wooded tundra M3) Temperate deciduous forest — | Tundra ©) Warm mixed forest availability decreases in 30% of the modeled river basins from the combined effects of climate change and water withdrawal, as projected by the WaterGAP model ($10.3). Based on established but incomplete scientific understanding of fish species-discharge relationships, the decreased water discharge will result in eventual losses of up to 65% (by 2100) of fish species from these basins (low certainty). Climate change rather than water withdrawal is the major driver for the species losses from most basins, with projected losses from climate change alone of up to 65% by 2100. Rivers that are projected to lose the most fish species are concentrated in poor tropical and sub-tropical countries, where the needs for human adaptation are most likely to exceed governmental and societal capacity to cope ($10.3). Many rivers and lakes also experience increased temperatures, eutrophication, acidification, and increased invasions by nonindigenous species, leading to loss of native biodiversity. No algorithms exist for estimating the numbers of species lost due to these drivers, but recent experi- ence suggests that they cause losses greater than those caused by climate change and water withdrawal. EQUATOR —_! Grassland / steppe ——! Agriculture and extensive grassland ©) Scrubland CI Ice ——! Savanna —! Hot desert Source: IMAGE Land-cover map 2000 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 63 1. CONVERSION OF TERRESTRIAL BIOMEs (Adapted from C4, $10) It is not possible to estimate accurately the extent of different biomes prior to significant human impact, but it is possible to determine the “potential” area of biomes based on soil and climatic conditions. This Figure shows how much of that potential area is estimated to have been converted by 1950 (medium certainty), how much was converted between 1950 and 1990 (medium certainty), and how much would be converted under the four MA scenarios (low certainty) between 1990 and 2050. Mangroves are not included here because the area was too small to be accurately preferences for fish (S9.4.2). Increasing demand raises the pressure on marine fisheries, most of which are already above or near their maximum sustainable yield and could cause a long-term collapse in their productivity. The production of fish via aquaculture adds to the risk of collapse of marine fisheries, as aquaculture continues to depend on marine fish as a feed source. However, the diversity of marine biomass is assessed. Most of the conversion of these biomes is to cultivated systems. Fraction of potential area converted -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 t 1 fh 1 a ——— MEDITERRANEAN FORESTS, WOODLANDS, AND SCRUB TEMPERATE FOREST STEPPE AND WOODLAND TEMPERATE BROADLEAF AND MIXED FORESTS TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL DRY BROADLEAF FORESTS FLOODED GRASSLANDS AND SAVANNAS TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL GRASSLANDS, SAVANNAS, AND SHRUBLANDS TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL CONIFEROUS FORESTS DESERTS MONTANE GRASSLANDS. AND SHRUBLANDS TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL MOIST BROADLEAF FORESTS TEMPERATE CONIFEROUS FORESTS BOREAL FORESTS TUNDRA Conversion of original biomes oa Loss by Loss between 1950 Projected loss 1950 and 1990 s_| by 20502 * According to the four MA scenarios. For 2050 projections, the average value of the projections under the four scenarios is plotted and the error bars (black lines) represent the range of values from the different scenarios. Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Demand for fish as food expands under all scenarios, and the result will be an increasing risk of a major long-lasting collapse of regional marine fisheries (low to medium certainty). The demand for fish from both freshwater and marine sources, as well as from aquaculture, increases across all scenarios because of increasing human population, income growth, and growing 64 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 70 80 90 100% i sensitive to changes in regional policy. Scenarios with policies that focus on maintaining or increasing the value of fisheries result in declin- ing biomass diversity (that is, a few functional groups become much more abundant than others), while scenarios with policies that focus on maintaining the ecosystem responded with increasing biomass diversity (the biomass becomes more evenly distributed among the different functional groups). Rebuilding selected stocks does not necessarily increase biomass diversity as effectively as an ecosystem-focused policy (S10.4). Ecological Degradation and Human Well-being Biodiversity loss will lead to a deterioration of ecosystem services, increasing the likelihood of ecological surprises—with negative impacts on human well-being. Examples of ecological sur- prises include runaway climate change, desertifi- cation, fisheries collapse, floods, landslides, wildfires, eutrophication, and disease (S11.1.2, $11.7). Security and social relations are vulnera- ble to reductions in ecosystem services. Short- ages of provisioning services, such as food and water, are obvious and potent causes for conflict, thus harming social relations. But social relations can also be harmed by reduced ecosystem cul- tural services, such as the loss of iconic species or changes to highly valued landscapes. Likelihood of surprises, society preparedness, and ecosystem resilience interact to determine the vulnerability of human well-being to ecological and other forms of surprise in any given scenario. The vul- nerability of human well-being to adverse eco- logical, social, and other forms of surprise varies among the scenarios (S11.7), but it is greatest in Order from Strength, with a focus on security through boundaries and where the society is not proactive to the environment. Scenarios that limit deforestation show relatively better preservation of regulating services. Tropical deforestation could be reduced by a combination of reduced tropical hard- wood consumption in the North, technological developments leading to substitution, and slower population growth in the South (TechnoGarden) or through greater protection of local Pasture and cropland in million square kilometers 45 40 35 Developing regions 30: 25 20 Industrial regions MA Scenarios =—— Order from Strength =—— Adapting Mosaic —— TechnoGarden =—— Global Orchestration 1970 1980 Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment ecosystems (Adapting Mosaic). In contrast, in the scenarios that are not proactive on the environment, a combination of market forces, undervaluation, and feedbacks lead to substan- tial deforestation not only in the tropics but also in large swaths of Siberia (Order from Strength and Global Orchestra- tion). Deforestation increasingly interacts with climate change in all scenarios, causing not only more flooding during storms but also more fires during droughts, greatly increasing the risk of runaway climate change (S11). Terrestrial ecosystems currently absorb CO: at a rate of about 1—2 gigatons of carbon per year (with medium certainty) and thereby contribute to the regulation of climate, but the future of this service is uncertain (S9.5). Deforestation is expected to reduce the carbon sink most strongly in a globalized world with a focus on security through boundaries (Order from Strength) (medium certainty). Carbon release or uptake by ecosystems affects the CO2and CHs content of the atmosphere at the global 9. FOREST AND CROPLAND/PasTuRE IN INDUSTRIAL AND DEVELOPING REGIONS UNDER THE MA ScENARIOS (S9 E 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Forest area in million square kilometers 45 40 35 30 Industrial regions 25 20 Developing regions 15 10 ) 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 scale and thereby global climate. Currently, the biosphere is a net sink of carbon, absorbing approximately 20% of fossil fuel emis- sions. It is very likely that the future of this service will be greatly affected by expected land use change. In addition, a higher atmo- spheric CO: concentration is expected to enhance net productiv- ity, but this does not necessarily lead to an increase in the carbon sink. The limited understanding of soil respiration processes, and their response to changed agricultural practices, generates uncer- tainty about the future of this sink. The MA scenarios project an increase in global temperature between 2000 and 2050 of 1.0—1.5° Celsius, and between 2000 and 2100 of 2.0—3.5° Celsius, depending on the scenario (/ow to medium certainty) (S9.3). There is an increase in global average precipitation (medium certainty). Furthermore, according to the climate scenarios of the MA, there is an increase in precipitation EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 65 ER AVAILABILITY IN GLOBAL Orc O BY 2100 ( EQUATOR Change in water availability in percentage eal] -50% and under ) -25 to -50% ___| -5 to -25% __| -5 to +5% __| +5 to +25% W)) +25 to +50% we: ea] +50% and above as : 1 EQUATOR Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment over most of the land area on Earth (low to medium certainty). However, some arid regions (such as North Africa and the Mid- dle East) could become even more arid (/ow certainty). Climate change will directly alter ecosystem services, for example, by causing changes in the productivity and growing zones of culti- vated and noncultivated vegetation. It will also indirectly affect ecosystem services in many ways, such as by causing sea level to rise, which threatens mangroves and other vegetation that now protect shorelines. Acknowledging the uncertainty in climate sensitivity in accor- dance with the IPCC would lead to a wider range of temperature increase than 2.0—3.5° Celsius. Nevertheless, both the upper and lower end of this wider range would be shifted downward some- what compared with the range for the scenarios in the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (1.5—5.5° Celsius). This is caused by the fact that the ZechnoGarden scenario includes cli- mate policies (while the IPCC scenarios did not cover climate policies) and the highest scenarios (Global Orchestration and Order from Strength) show lower emissions than the highest IPCC scenario (S9.3.4). 66 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis The scenarios indicate (medium certainty) certain “hot spot regions” of particularly rapid changes in ecosystem ser- vices, including sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and Northern Africa, and South Asia (S9.8). To meet its needs for development, sub-Saharan Africa is likely to rapidly expand its withdrawal of water, and this will require an unprecedented investment in new water infrastructure. Under some scenarios (medium certainty), this rapid increase in withdrawals will cause a similarly rapid increase in untreated return flows to the freshwater systems, which could endanger public health and aquatic ecosystems. This region could experience not only accelerating intensification of agriculture but also further expansion of agricultural land onto natural land. Further intensification could lead to a higher level of contamination of surface and groundwaters. Expansion of agriculture will come at the expense of the disappearance of a large fraction of sub-Saharan Africa's natural forest and grasslands (medium certainty) as well as the ecosystem services they provide. Rising incomes in the Middle East and Northern African countries lead to greater demand for meat, which could lead to a still higher level of dependency on food imports (/ow to medium certainty). In South Asia, deforestation continues, despite increasingly intensive industrial-type agriculture. Here, rapidly increasing water withdrawals and return flows further intensify water stress. While the GDP per person improves on aver- age in all scenarios, this can mask increased inequity and declines in some ecosystem ser- vices (S9.2). Food security improves in the South in all scenarios except in Order from Strength, a world with a focus on security through boundar- ies and reactive to the environment. (See Figure 4.7.) Food security remains out of reach for many people, however, and child malnutrition cannot be eradicated even by 2050, with the number of malnourished children still at 151 million in Order from Strength. In a regionalized and envi- ronmentally proactive world, there is an improve- ment of provisioning services in the South through investment in social, natural, and, to a lesser extent, human capital at local and regional levels (Adapting Mosaic). Global health improves in a globalized world that places an emphasis on economic development (Global Orchestration) but worsens in a regionalized world with a focus on security, with new diseases affecting poor populations and with anxiety, depression, obesity and diabetes affecting richer populations (Order from Strength). New health technologies and better nutrition could help unleash major social and economic improvements, especially among poor tropical populations, where it is increasingly well recog- nized that development is being undermined by numerous infectious diseases, widespread under- nutrition, and high birth rates. Good health depends crucially on institutions. The greatest improvements in social relations occur in a regionalized world with a focus on the environ- ment, as civil society movements strengthen (Adapting Mosaic). Curiously, security is poorest in a world with focus on security through bound- aries (Order from Strength). This scenario also sees freedom of choice and action reduced both in the North and the South, while other scenarios see an improvement, particularly in the South (S11). Implications and Opportunities for Trend Reversion The MA scenarios demonstrate the fundamen- tal interdependence between energy, climate change, biodiversity, wetlands, desertification, food, health, trade, and economy, since ecologi- cal change affects the scenario outcomes. This interdependence between environmental and development goals stresses the importance of partnerships and the potential for synergies e 4.7. CHANGES IN HumMaAN WELL-BEING AND SOCIOECOLOGICAL INDICATORS BY 2050 UNDER THE MA Scenarios (S11) Each arrow in the star diagrams represents one component of human well-being. The area marked by the lines between the arrows represents well-being as a whole. The 0 line represents the status of each of these components today. If the thick line moves more toward the center of the pentagon, this component deteriorates in relative terms between today and 2050; if it moves more toward the outer edges of the pentagon, it improves. Global Orchestration Order from Strength Rich countries Material Material well-being well-being Aimy. > Social gi Social ce relations ~~ Health relations Health j , \ ; , rl f \ \ eee. Pine Freedom Security Freedom Security and choice and choice Poor countries Material Material well-being well-being Social af be Social relations 7 Health relations Health Freedom Security Freedom Security and choice and choice TechnoGarden Adapting Mosaic Rich countries : Material well-being Material well-being fim , Social Health relations Health fas : Freedom Security Freedom Security and choice and choice Poor countries ; Material well-being Material well-being Health Health Security Freedom and choice Freedom Security and choice Year Present Year 2050 situation 2050 Decline Improvement — Source; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment = = EcosysTEMs AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 67 among multilateral environ- mental agreements (S14). As the basis for international cooperation, all global environ- mental agreements operate under profoundly different cir- cumstances in the four scenar- ios, and their current instruments—exchange of sci- entific information and knowl- edge, technology transfer, benefit sharing, financial sup- port—might need to be revised and complemented by new ones according to changing ww =< = w = ue > = a sociopolitical conditions. The interdependence between socioeconomic development and ecosystems also requires national governments and intergovernmental organizations to influence and moderate the actions of the private sector, communities, and NGOs. The responsibility of national governments to establish good governance at the national and sub-national levels is complemented by their obligation to shape the international context by negotiating, endorsing, and imple- menting international environmental agreements. Trade-offs between ecosystem services continue and may intensify. The gains in provisioning services such as food supply and water use will come partly at the expense of other ecosystem services (S12). Major decisions in the next 50-100 years will have to address trade-offs between agricultural production and water quality, land use and biodiversity, water use and aquatic biodiversity, current water use for irrigation and future agricul- tural production, and in fact all current and future use of nonre- newable resources (S12). Providing food to an increasing population will lead (with low to medium certainty) to the expan- sion of agricultural land, and this will lead to the loss of natural forest and grassland (S9.3) as well as of other services (such as genetic resources, climate regulation, and runoff regulation). While water use will increase in developing countries (with high certainty), this is likely to be accompanied by a rapid and perhaps extreme deterioration of water quality, with losses of the services provided by clean fresh waters (genetic resources, recreation, and fish production). For a given level of socioeconomic development, policies that conserve more biodiversity will also promote higher aggregated human well-being through the preservation of regulating, cul- tural, and supporting services. Regulating and supporting ser- vices are essential for the steady delivery of provisioning services to humans and to sustain life on Earth, while cultural services are important for many people. Although trade-offs are common, 68 EcosystTEMS AND HUMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis various synergistic interactions can allow for the simultaneous enhancement of more than one ecosystem service (S12.4.4). Increasing the supply of some ecosystem services can enhance the supply of others (forest restoration, for instance, may lead to improvements in carbon sequestration, runoff regulation, polli- nation, and wildlife), although there are also trade-offs (in this case with reduced capacity to provide food, for example). Suc- cessful management of synergisms is a key component of any strategy aimed at increasing the supply of ecosystem services for human well-being. The prospect of large unexpected shifts in ecosystem services can be addressed by adopting policies that hedge (by diversify- ing the services used in a particular region, for example), choos- ing reversible actions, monitoring to detect impending changes in ecosystems, and adjusting flexibly as new knowledge becomes available (S.SDM, S5, S14). More attention to indicators and monitoring for large changes in ecosystem services would increase society’s capacity to avert large disturbances of ecosystem services or to adapt to them more rapidly if they occur. Without monitoring and policies that anticipate the possi- bility of large ecosystem changes, society will face increased risk of large impacts from unexpected disruptions of ecosystem ser- vices. In the scenarios, the greatest risks of large, unfavorable eco- logical changes arise in dryland agriculture, marine fisheries, degradation in the quality of fresh waters and coastal marine waters, emergence of disease, and regional climate change. These are also some of the ecosystem attributes most poorly monitored at present. 5. What response options can conserve biodiversity and promote human well-being? @ Biodiversity loss is driven by local, regional, and global factors, so responses are also needed at all scales. @ Responses need to acknowledge multiple stakeholders with different needs. @ Given certain conditions, many effective responses are available to address the issues identified. @ Responses designed to address biodiversity loss will not be sustainable or sufficient unless relevant direct and indirect drivers of change are addressed. @ Further progress in reducing biodiversity loss will come through greater coherence and synergies among sectoral responses and through more systematic consideration of trade- offs among ecosystem services or between biodiversity conser- vation and other needs of society. Some drivers of biodiversity loss are localized, such as overex- ploitation. Others are global, such as climate change, while many operate at a variety of scales, such as the local impacts of invasive species through global trade. Most of the responses assessed here were designed to address the direct drivers of biodi- versity loss. However, these drivers are better seen as symptoms of the indirect drivers, such as unsustainable patterns of con- sumption, demographic change, and globalization. At the local and regional scale, responses to the drivers may promote both local biodiversity and human well-being by acting on the synergies between maintenance of local biodiversity and provision of key ecosystem services. Responses promoting local management for global biodiversity values depend on local “cap- ture” of the global values in a way that provides both ongoing incentives for management and support for local well-being (R5). At the global scale, effective responses set priorities for conser- vation and development efforts in different regions and create shared goals or programs, such as the biodiversity-related conven- tions and the Millennium Development Goals. Effective trade- offs and synergies will be promoted when different strategies or instruments are used in an integrated, coordinated way (R5). The MA assessment of biodiversity responses places human well-being as the central focus for assessment, recognizing that people make decisions concerning ecosystems based on a range of values related to well-being, including the use and non-use values of biodiversity and ecosystems. The assessment therefore has viewed biodiversity responses as addressing values at different scales, with strong links to ecosystem service values and well-being arising at each of these scales. The well-being of local people dom- inates the assessment of many responses, including those relating to protected areas, governance, wild species management, and var- ious responses related to local capture of benefits. Focusing exclusively on values at only one level often hinders responses that could promote values at all levels or reconcile conflicts between the levels. Effective responses function across scales, addressing global values of biodiversity while identifying opportunity costs or synergies with local values. Local consider- ation of global biodiversity recognizes the value of what is unique at a place (or what is not yet protected elsewhere). The values of ecosystem services, on the other hand, do not always depend on these unique elements. Effective biodiversity responses recognize both kinds of values. These considerations guide the assessment summarized in this section of a range of response strategies that to varying degrees integrate global and local values and that seek effective trade-offs and synergies for biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. Difficulties in measuring biodiversity have complicated assessments of the impact of response strategies. Developing better indicators of biodiversity would enhance integration among strategies and instruments. For example, existing mea- sures often focus on local biodiversity and do not estimate the marginal gains in regional or global biodiversity values. Similarly, biodiversity gains from organic farming are typically expressed only as localized species richness, with no consideration of the degree of contribution to regional or global biodiversity or the trade-offs with high-productivity industrial agriculture. How Effective Are Protected Areas for Biodiversity Conservation and Improved Human Well-being? Protected areas are an extremely important part of programs to conserve biodiversity and ecosystems, especially for sensitive habitats (R5). Recent assessments have shown that at the global and regional scales, the existence of current PAs, while essential, is not sufficient for conservation of the full range of biodiversity. Protected areas need to be better located, designed, and managed to deal with problems like lack of representativeness, impacts of human settlement within protected areas, illegal harvesting of plants and animals, unsustainable tourism, impacts of invasive alien species, and vulnerability to global change. Marine and freshwater ecosystems are even less well protected than terrestrial systems, leading to increasing efforts to expand PAs in these biomes. Efforts to expand marine protected areas are also spurred by strong evidence of positive synergies between conservation within PAs and sustainable use immediately outside their bound- aries (C18). However, marine protected area management poses special challenges, as enforcement is difficult and much of the world’s oceans lie outside national jurisdictions. EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 69 OC ae Based on a survey of management effectiveness of a sample of nearly 200 protected areas in 34 countries, only 12% were found to have implemented an approved management plan. The assess- ment concluded that PA design, legal establishment, boundary demarcation, resource inventory, and objective setting were rela- tively well addressed. But management planning, monitoring and evaluation, and budgets for security and law enforcement were generally weak among the surveyed areas. Moreover, the “paper park” problem remains, whereby geographic areas may be labeled as some category of protected area but not achieve the promised form of management (R5). Protected areas may contribute to poverty where rural people are excluded from resources that have traditionally supported their well-being. However, PAs can contribute to improved live- lihoods when they are managed to benefit local people (R5). Relations with local people should be addressed more effectively through participatory consultation and planning. One possible strategy is to promote the broader use of IUCN protected areas management categories. Success depends on a collaborative man- agement approach between government and stakeholders, an adaptive approach that tests options in the field, comprehensive monitoring that provides information on management success or failure, and empowerment of local communities through an open and transparent system that clarifies access and ownership of resources. Success of protected areas as a response to biodiversity loss requires better site selection and incorporation of regional trade-offs to avoid some ecosystems from being poorly repre- sented while others are overrepresented. Success of PAs depends on adequate legislation and management, sufficient resources, better integration with the wider region surrounding protected areas, and expanded stakeholder engagement (R5). Moreover, representation and management targets and performance indica- tors work best when they go beyond measuring the total area apparently protected. Indicators of percent-area coverage of PAs, as associated with the Millennium Development Goals and other targets, for example, only provide a broad indication of the actual extent of protection afforded by PA systems, but regional and national-level planning requires targets that take into account trade-offs and synergies with other ecosystem services. Protected area design and management will need to take into account the impacts of climate change. The impacts of climate change will increase the risk of extinctions of certain species and change the nature of ecosystems. Shifts in species distribution as a result of climate change are well documented (C4, C19, C25). Today's species conservation plans may incorporate adaptation and mitigation aspects for this threat, drawing on existing tools to help assess species’ vulnerability to climate change. Corridors and other habitat design aspects to give flexibility to protected areas are effective precautionary strategies. Improved manage- ment of habitat corridors and production ecosystems between protected areas will help biodiversity adapt to changing condi- tions (R5). 70 EcosysTEMS AND Human WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis How Effective is Local Capture of Biodiversity Benefits? The impact of market instruments in encouraging and achiev- ing conservation of biodiversity is unclear (R5). Although trad- able development rights offer the potential to achieve a conservation objective at a low cost by offering flexibility in achieving the objectives, they have been the subject of some criti- cisms—notably for being complex and involving high transac- tion costs and the establishment of new supporting institutions. For example, a situation could arise in which the most ecologi- cally sensitive land but also the least costly to develop would not be protected. To date, the TDR has not been designed to target specific habitat types and properties. Transferring rights to own and manage ecosystem services to private individuals gives them a stake in conserving those ser- vices, but these measures can backfire without adequate levels of institutional support. For example, in South Africa, changes in wildlife protection legislation allowed a shift in landownership and a conversion from cattle and sheep farming to profitable game farming, enabling conservation of indigenous wildlife. On the other hand, the CAMPFIRE program in Zimbabwe, based on sustainable community-managed use of wildlife, has now become an example of how success can turn into failure, with the state repossessing the areas given to individuals and breaking the levels of trust and transparency—a form of instrumental free- dom—that are critically needed for these economic responses to work efficiently and equitably (R17). Payments to local landowners for ecosystem services show promise of improving the allocation of ecosystem services and are applicable to biodiversity conservation. However, compen- sating mechanisms addressing the distributive and equitable aspects of these economic instruments may need to be designed in support of such efforts. By 2001, more than 280,000 hectares of forests had been incorporated in Costa Rica within reserves, at a cost of about $30 million per year, with typical annual pay- ments ranging from $35 to $45 per hectare for forest conserva- tion (R5 Box 5.3). However, the existence of direct payment initiatives does not guarantee success in achieving conservation and development objectives or benefits for human well-being. Empirical analyses about the distributive impacts across different social groups are rare. Direct payments are often more effective than indirect incen- tives. For example, integrated conservation-development proj- ects—an indirect incentive—designed to allow local populations to improve their well-being by capturing international willing- ness to pay for biodiversity conservation have in practice rarely been integrated into ongoing incentives for conservation. Over- all, long-term success for these response strategies depends on meeting the economic and social needs of communities whose well-being already depends to varying degrees on biodiversity products and the ecosystem services biodiversity supports (R5). However, direct payments have been criticized for requiring ongoing financial commitments to maintain the link between investment and conservation objectives. Furthermore they have led in some instances to inter- and intra-community conflict. Yet many success stories show the effectiveness of direct pay- ments and the transfer of property rights in providing incentives for local communities to conserve biodiversity. Effectiveness of payments in conserving regional biodiversity may be enhanced by new approaches that target payments based on estimated mar- ginal gains (“complementarity” values) (R5 Box 5.3). Significant improvements can be made to mitigate biodiver- sity loss and ecosystem changes by removing or redirecting eco- nomic subsidies that cause more harm than good. Agricultural subsidies in industrial countries reduce world prices for many commodities that developing countries produce. Lower prices provide the wrong incentives, encouraging these countries to adopt unsustainable agricultural activities that destroy ecosystems as well as push many poor farmers into poverty. Therefore the removal or redirection of agricultural subsidies is highly likely by itself to produce major improvements in ecosystem services and to check the rate of biodiversity loss (R5). The promotion of “win-win” outcomes has been politically correct at best and naive at worst. Economic incentives that encourage the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity show considerable promise. However, trade-offs between biodi- versity, economic gains, and social needs have to be more realisti- cally acknowledged. The benefits of biodiversity conservation are often widespread, even global in the case of existence values or carbon sequestration, while the costs of restricting access to bio- diversity often are concentrated on groups living near biodiver- sity-rich areas (R5). Why is the Management of Individual Species a Common Response Strategy for Harvestable and Invasive Species? Direct management of invasive species will become an even more important biodiversity conservation response, typically calling for an ecosystem-level response if the invasive species has become established. Control or eradication of an invasive species once it is established is often extremely difficult and costly, while prevention and early intervention have been shown to be more successful and cost-effective. Common factors in suc- cessful eradication cases include particular biological features of the target species (for example, poor dispersal ability), early detection/response, sufficient economic resources devoted for a sufficient duration, and widespread support from the relevant agencies and the public. Successful prevention requires increased efforts in the control and regulation of the transportation of invasive species due to international trade (R5). Chemical control of invasive plant species, sometimes com- bined with mechanical removal like cutting or pruning, has been useful for controlling at least some invasive plants, but has not proved particularly successful in eradication. In addition to its low efficiency, chemical control can be expensive. Biological control of invasive species has also been attempted, but results are mixed (R5). For example, the introduction of a non-native predatory snail to control the giant African snail in Hawaii led to extinction of many native snails. Some 160 species of biological agents, mainly insects and fungi, are registered for controlling invasive species in North America, and many of them appear highly effective. However, at least some of the biological agents used are themselves potential invaders. Environmental screening and risk assessment can minimize the likelihood of negative impacts on non-target native species. Social and economic aspects of the control of invasive species have received less attention, perhaps because of difficulties in estimating these trade-offs. The Global Invasive Species Pro- gram is an international response to address the problem. The CBD has adopted Guiding Principles on Invasive Alien Species (Decision VI/23) as a basic policy response, but it is too early to assess the effectiveness of implementation (R5). Sustainable use of natural resources is an integral part of any sustainable development program, yet its contribution to con- servation remains a highly controversial subject within the con- servation community. Conserving species when the management objective is ensuring resource availability to support human live- lihoods is frequently unsuccessful. This is because optimal man- agement for natural resource extraction frequently has negative impacts on species targeted for conservation. Therefore, care in establishing positive incentives for conservation and sustainable use is critical to successful biodiversity conservation (R5). Where the goal is species conservation, and where a specific population has a distinct identity and can be managed directly, species management approaches can be effective. However, managing for a single species is rarely effective when the goal is ecosystem functioning, which is tied to the entire suite of species present in the area. Where human livelihoods depend on single species resources, species management can be effective (for exam- ple, some fisheries and game species), but where people depend ona range of different wild resources, as is frequently the case, multiple species management is the appropriate approach (R5). How Effective Are Strategies for Integrating Biodiversity Issues in Production Sectors? At the national level, integrating biodiversity issues into agri- culture, fishery, and forestry management encourages sustain- able harvesting and minimizes negative impacts on biodiversity. Biodiversity will only be conserved and sustainably used when it becomes a mainstream concern of production sectors. Agricul- ture is directly dependent on biodiversity, but agricultural prac- tices in recent decades have focused on maximizing yields. Research and development have focused on few relatively pro- ductive species, thus ignoring the potential importance of biodi- versity. Effective response strategies include sustainable intensification, which minimizes the need for expanding total area for production, so allowing more area for biodiversity EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 71 conservation. Practices such as integrated pest management, some forms of organic farming, and protection of field margins, riparian zones, and other noncultivated habitats within farms can promote synergistic relationships between agriculture, domestic biodiversity, and wild biodiversity. However, assess- ments of biodiversity contributions from such management reveal little data about contributions to regional biodiversity conservation (C26, R5). A review of 36 initiatives to conserve wild biodiversity while enhancing agricultural production demonstrated benefits to landscape and ecosystem diversity, while impacts on species diversity were very situation-specific. Assessing the impact of these approaches suffers from a lack of consistent, comprehen- sively documented research on the systems, particularly regarding interactions between agricultural production and ecosystem health (R5). Tropical deforestation at a local level can be controlled most effectively when the livelihood needs of local inhabitants are addressed within the context of sustainable forestry. The early proponents of forest certification hoped it would be an effective response to tropical deforestation, but most certified forests are in the North, managed by large companies and exporting to Northern retailers (C9, C21). The proliferation of certification programs to meet the needs of different stakeholders has meant that no single program has emerged as the only credible or domi- nant approach internationally (R8.3.9). Forest management poli- cies should center on existing land and water ownership at the community level. Relevant legal tools include redesigning owner- ship to small-scale private control of forests, public-private part- nerships, direct management of forests by indigenous people, and company-community partnerships. New land tenure systems must be context-relevant and accompanied by enforcement if they are to be effective. They need to include elements of educa- tion, training, health, and safety to function effectively (R5, R8). What Can the Private Sector Contribute to Biodiversity Objectives? The private sector can make significant contributions to biodi- versity conservation. Some parts of the private sector are show- ing greater willingness to contribute to biodiversity conservation and sustainable use due to the influence of shareholders, custom- ers, and government regulation. Showing greater corporate social responsibility, many companies are now preparing their own biodiversity action plans, managing their own landholdings in ways that are more compatible with biodiversity conservation, supporting certification schemes that promote more sustainable 72 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis a use, working with multiple stakeholders, and accepting their responsibility for addressing biodiversity issues in their operations. Influence of shareholders or customers is limited in cases where the company is not publicly listed or is government-owned. Further developments are likely to focus on two main areas. First, in addition to assessing the impact of companies on biodi- versity, important though this is, increasing emphasis will be given to ecosystem services and how companies rely on them. This will require development of mechanisms for companies to understand their risk exposure and to manage those risks. Sec- ond, greater collaboration is likely to take place between NGOs and business in order to more fully explore ways to reduce harm- ful trade-offs and identify positive synergies that could lead to more effective sustainable management practices (R5). What Institutions, Forms of Governance, and Multilateral Processes Can Promote Effective Conservation of Biodiversity? Governance approaches to support biodiversity conservation and sustainable use are required at all levels, with supportive laws and policies developed by central governments providing the security of tenure and authority essential for sustainable management at lower levels. The principle that biodiversity should be managed at the lowest appropriate level has led to decentralization in many parts of the world, with variable results. The key to success is strong institutions at all levels, with security of tenure and authority at the lower levels essential to providing incentives for sustainable management (R5). At the same time that management of some ecosystem services is being devolved to lower levels, management approaches are also evolving to deal with large-scale processes with many stake- holders. Problems such as regional water scarcity and conserva- tion of large ecosystems require large-scale management structures. For example, most of the major rivers in Southern Africa flow across international borders, so international water co-management organizations are being designed to share the management of riparian resources and ensure water security for all members. However, political instability in one state may negatively affect others, and power among stakeholders is likely to be uneven. Neither centralization nor decentralization of authority always results in better management. For example, the power of Catchment Management Agencies in South Africa is constrained to their catchment, but impacts may be felt from outside or upstream. The best strategy may be one with multi-subsidiar- ity—that is, functions that subordinate organizations perform effectively belong more properly to them (because they have the best information) than to a dominant central organization, and the central organization functions as a center of support, coordi- nation, and communication (R5). Legal systems in countries are multilayered and in many countries, local practices or infor- mal institutions may be much stronger than the law on paper. Important customs relate to the local norms and traditions of managing property rights and the ecosystems around them. Since these are embedded in the local societies, changing these customs and customary rights through external incentive and disincen- tive schemes is very difficult unless the incen- tives are very carefully designed. Local knowledge, integrated with other scientific knowledge, becomes absolutely critical for addressing ways of managing local ecosystems. More effort is needed in integrating biodi- versity conservation and sustainable use activi- ties within larger macroeconomic decision-making frameworks. New poverty reduction strategies have been developed in recent years covering a wide range of policies and different scales and actors. However, the integration or mainstreaming of ecosystems and ecosystem services is largely ignored. The focus of such strategies is generally on institutional and macroeconomic stability, the generation of sectoral growth, and the reduction of the number of people living on less than $1 a day in poor countries. It is well documented that many of the structural adjustment pro- grams of the mid- to late 1980s caused deterioration in ecosys- tem services and a deepening of poverty in many developing countries (R17). International cooperation through multilateral environmen- tal agreements requires increased commitment to implementa- tion of activities that effectively conserve biodiversity and promote sustainable use of biological resources. Numerous mul- tilateral environmental agreements have now been established that contribute to conserving biodiversity. The Convention on Biological Diversity is the most comprehensive, but numerous others are also relevant, including the World Heritage Conven- tion, the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Spe- cies of Wild Fauna and Flora, the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands, the Convention on Migratory Species, the U.N. Con- vention to Combat Desertification, the U.N. Framework Con- vention on Climate Change, and numerous regional agreements. Their impacts at policy and practical levels depend on the will of the contracting parties (R5). Effective responses may build on recent attempts (such as through joint work plans) to create synergies between conven- tions. The lack of compulsory jurisdiction for dispute resolution is a major weakness in international environmental law. How- ever, requirements to report to conventions put pressure on countries to undertake active measures under the framework of those treaties. An effective instrument should include incentives, plus sanctions for violations or noncompliance procedures to help countries come into compliance. Links between biodiversity conventions and other international legal institutions that have significant impacts on biodiversity (such as the World Trade Organization) remain weak (R5). The international agreements with the greatest impact on bio- diversity are not in the environmental field but rather deal with economic and political issues. These typically do not take into account their impact on biodiversity. Successful responses will require that these agreements are closely linked with other agree- ments and that solutions designed for one regime do not lead to problems in other regimes. For example, efforts to sequester car- bon under the Kyoto Protocol should seek to enhance biodiver- sity, not harm it (for example, by planting multiple species of native trees rather than monospecific plantatiouis of exotic spe- cies) (R5). Although biodiversity loss is a recognized global problem, most direct actions to halt or reduce loss need to be taken locally or nationally. Indirect drivers like globalization and inter- national decisions on trade and economics often have a negative effect on biodiversity and should be addressed at the interna- tional level, but the proximate responsibility to detect and act directly on biodiversity loss is at the local and national level. For threatened endemic species or ecosystems limited to an area within a single country or local administrative unit, the relevant agencies should give high priority to these species or ecosystems, with appropriate support from global, regional, or national sup- port systems (R5). EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 73 How Can the Identification, Design, and Implementation of Responses Be Improved? Numerous response options exist to improve the benefits from ecosystem services to human societies without undermining biodiversity. The political and social changes now occurring in many parts of the world will have far-reaching consequences for the way ecosystem services and human well-being are managed in the future; it is thus imperative to develop an increased under- standing of the enabling conditions needed for choosing and implementing responses. (See Box 5.1.) Responses do not work in a vacuum. A variety of enabling conditions—a combination of instrumental freedoms and insti- tutional frameworks—play critical roles in determining the suc- cess or failure of a response strategy. The success or failure of many responses is largely influenced by the various institutional frameworks in place in a country (CF3, R17). Education and communication programs have both informed and changed preferences for biodiversity conservation and have improved implementation of biodiversity responses (R5). Scien- tific findings and data need to be made available to all of society. A major obstacle for knowing (and therefore valuing), preserving, sustainably using, and sharing benefits equitably from the biodi- versity of a region is the human and institutional capacity to research a country's biota. The CONABIO initiative in Mexico and INBio in Cost Rica offer examples of successful national models for converting basic taxonomic information into knowl- edge for biodiversity conservation policies, as well as for other policies relating to ecosystems and biodiversity. Ecosystem restoration activities are now common in many countries and include actions to restore almost all types of eco- systems, including wetlands, forests, grasslands, estuaries, coral reefs, and mangroves. Restoration will become an increasingly important response as more ecosystems become degraded and as demands for their services continue to grow. Ecosystem restora- tion, however, is generally far more expensive an option than protecting the original ecosystem, and it is rare that all the biodi- versity and services of a system can be restored (R5). Rather than the “win-win” outcomes promoted (or assumed) by many practitioners of integrated conservation and develop- ment projects, conflict is more often the norm, and trade-offs between conservation and development need to be acknowl- edged. Identifying and then negotiating trade-offs is complex, involving different policy options, different priorities for conser- vation and development, and different stakeholders. In the case of biodiversity conservation, the challenge is in negotiating these trade-offs, determining levels of acceptable biodiversity loss, and encouraging stakeholder participation. Where trade-offs must be made, decision-makers must consider and make explicit the con- sequences of all options. Better trade-offs from policies that remove perverse incentives or create markets for biodiversity protection can achieve a given level of biodiversity protection (regionally) at lower cost (R5). 74 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis a Key Facrors of SUCCESSFUL RESPONSES TO Bropiversity Loss = Mobilize knowledge. Ensure that the available knowledge is presented in ways that can be used by decision-makers. mw Recognize complexity. Responses must serve multiple objec- tives and sectors; they must be integrated. w Acknowledge uncertainty. In choosing responses, understand the limits to current knowledge, and expect the unexpected. w Enable natural feedbacks. Avoid creating artificial feedbacks that are detrimental to system resilience. = Use an inclusive process. Make information available and understandable to a wide range of affected stakeholders. w Enhance adaptive capacity. Resilience is increased if institu- tional frameworks are put in place that allow and promote the capacity to learn from past responses and adapt accordingly. = Establish supporting instrumental freedoms. Responses do not work in a vacuum, and it is therefore critical to build nec- essary supporting instrumental freedoms—enabling conditions like transparency, markets, education—needed in order for the responses to work efficiently and equitably. = Establish legal frameworks. A legally binding agreement is generally likely to have a much stronger effect than a soft law agreement. @ Have clear definitions. Agreements with clear definitions and unambiguous language will be easier to implement. u Establish principles. Clear principles can help guide the parties to reach future agreement and guide the implementa- tion of an agreement. @ Elaborate obligations and appropriate rights. An agreement with a clear elaboration of obligations and rights is more likely to be implemented. @ Provide financial resources. Availability of financial resources increases the opportunities for implementation. = Provide mechanisms for implementation. Where financial resources are not sufficient, market mechanisms may increase the potential for implementation. & Establish implementing and monitoring agencies. The estab- lishment of subsidiary bodies with authority and resources to undertake specific activities to enhance the implementation of the agreements is vital to ensure continuity, preparation, and follow-up to complex issues. g Establish good links with scientific bodies. As ecological issues become more complex, it becomes increasingly impor- tant to establish good institutional links between the legal pro- cess and the scientific community. Integrate traditional and scientific knowledge. \dentify opportunities for incorporating traditional and local knowledge in designing responses. The “ecosystem approaches” as developed by the CBD and others provide principles for integration across scales and across different responses. Central to the rationale is that the full range of measures is applied in a continuum from strictly protected to human-made ecosystems and that integration can be achieved through both spatial and temporal separation across the land- scape, as well as through integration within a site. The MA sub- global assessments highlight useful synergies and trade-offs where different responses are integrated into a coherent regional frame- work (SG9). While some effective approaches will not require quantification of biodiversity gains, quantifying marginal gains and losses from different sources can strengthen such integration and enable one strategy to complement another in a targeted, strategic way (R17). Society may receive greater net benefits when opportunity costs of conservation in a particular location are adjusted to reflect positive gains from ecosystem services provided and when the setting of biodiversity targets takes all land and water use contributions into account (C5 Box 5.2, R5, R17). Debates about the relative value of formal protected areas versus lands that are more intensely used by people but that conserve at least some components of biodiversity are more constructive when conservation is seen as a continuum of possibilities. Weaknesses of both ends of the spectrum can be overcome by linking them in integrated regional strategies (R5). For example, an area converted to agriculture can lead to loss of biodiversity but can still contribute to regional biodiversity if it contributes certain complementary elements of biodiversity to overall regional biodiversity conservation. Formal protected areas are criticized for foreclosing other opportunities for society, but an integrated regional approach can build on the biodiversity protec- tion gains from the surrounding lands, thereby reducing some of the pressure for biodiversity protection in the face of other antici- pated uses over the region. Many contributions to overall biodi- versity protection are made from production landscapes or other lands outside of protected areas, and integration allows these con- tributions to be credited at the regional planning scale and to increase regional net benefits. However, the ideal of measurable gains from production lands should not reduce the more general efforts to mainstream biodiversity into other sectors; even without formal estimates of complementarity values, mainstreaming poli- cies can be seen as important aspects of integration. (R5) What Response Options Exist to Address Other Drivers of Biodiversity Loss? Many of the responses designed with the conservation of biodi- versity or ecosystem service as the primary goal will not be sus- tainable or sufficient unless indirect and direct drivers of change are addressed. Numerous responses that address direct and indirect drivers would be particularly important for biodiver- sity and ecosystem services: @ Elimination of subsidies that promote excessive use of specific ecosystem services. Subsidies paid to the agricultural sectors of OECD countries between 2001 and 2003 averaged over $324 billion annually, or one third the global value of agricultural products in 2000 (S7). These subsidies lead to overproduction, reduce the profitability of agriculture in developing countries, and promote overuse of fertilizers and pesticides. Similar prob- lems are created by fishery subsidies, which amounted to approx- imately $6.2 billion in OECD countries in 2002, or about 20% of the gross value of production ($7). Although removal of per- verse subsidies will produce net benefits, it will not be without costs. Some of the people benefiting from production subsidies (through either the low prices of products that result from the subsidies or as direct recipients of subsidies) are poor and would be harmed by their removal. Compensatory mechanisms may be needed for these groups. Moreover, removal of agricultural subsi- dies within the OECD would need to be accompanied by actions designed to minimize adverse impacts on ecosystem services in developing countries. But the basic challenge remains that the current economic system relies fundamentally on economic growth that disregards its impact on natural resources. @ Promotion of sustainable intensification of agriculture (C4, C26). The expansion of agriculture will continue to be one of the major drivers of biodiversity loss well into the twenty-first century. In regions where agricultural expansion continues to be a large threat to biodiversity, the development, assessment, and diffusion of technologies that could increase the production of food per unit area sustainably, without harmful trade-offs related to excessive consumption of water or use of nutrients or pesti- cides, would significantly lessen pressure on biodiversity. In many cases, appropriate technologies already exist that could be applied more widely, but countries lack the financial resources and intu- itional capabilities to gain and use these technologies. Where agriculture already dominates landscapes, the maintenance of biodiversity within these landscapes is an important component of total biodiversity conservation efforts, and, if managed appro- priately, can also contribute to agricultural productivity and sus- tainability through the ecosystem services that biodiversity provides (such as through pest control, pollination, soil fertility, protection of water courses against soil erosion, and the removal of excessive nutrients). § Slowing and adapting to climate change (R13). By the end of the century, climate change and its impacts may be the dominant direct driver of biodiversity loss and change of ecosystem services globally. Harm to biodiversity will grow with both increasing rates in change in climate and increasing absolute amounts of change. For ecosystem services, some services in some regions may initially benefit from increases in temperature or precipita- tion expected under climate scenarios, but the balance of evi- dence indicates that there will be a significant net harmful impact on ecosystem services worldwide if global mean surface tempera- ture increase more than 2° Celsius above preindustrial levels or faster than 0.2° Celsius per decade (medium certainty). Given the EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 75 inertia in the climate system, actions to facilitate the adaptation of biodiversity and ecosystems to climate change will be neces- sary to mitigate negative impacts. These may include the devel- opment of ecological corridors or networks. ® Slowing the global growth in nutrient loading (even while increasing fertilizer application in regions where crop yields are con- strained by the lack of fertilizers, such as parts of sub-Saharan Africa). Technologies already exist for reduction of nutrient pol- lution at reasonable costs, but new policies are needed for these tools to be applied on a sufficient scale to slow and ultimately reverse the increase in nutrient loading (R9). B® Correction of market failures and internalization of environ- mental externalities that lead to the degradation of ecosystem services (R17, R10, R13). Because many ecosystem services are not traded in markets, markets fail to provide appropriate signals that might otherwise contribute to the efficient allocation and sus- tainable use of the services. In addition, many of the harmful trade-offs and costs associated with the management of one eco- system service are borne by others and so also do not weigh into decisions regarding the management of that service. In countries with supportive institutions in place, market-based tools can be used to correct some market failures and internalize externalities, particularly with respect to provisioning ecosystem services. ® Increased transparency and accountability of government and private-sector performance in decisions that affect ecosystems, includ- ing through greater involvement of concerned stakeholders in deci- sion-making (RWG, SG9). Laws, policies, institutions, and markets that have been shaped through public participation in decision-making are more likely to be effective and perceived as just. Stakeholder participation also contributes to the decision- making process because it allows for a better understanding of impacts and vulnerability, the distribution of costs and benefits associated with trade-offs, and the identification of a broader range of response options that are available in a specific context. And stakeholder involvement and transparency of decision- making can increase accountability and reduce corruption. B Integration of biodiversity conservation strategies and responses within broader development planning frameworks. For example, protected areas, restoration ecology, and markets for ecosystem services will have higher chances of success if these responses are 76 EcosysTEMs AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis a reflected in the national development strategies or in poverty reduction strategies, in the case of many developing countries. In this manner, the costs and benefits of these conservation strate- gies and their contribution to human development are explicitly recognized in the Public Expenditure Review and resources for the implementation of the responses can be set aside in national Mid-Term Budgetary Frameworks (R17). & Increased coordination among multilateral environmental agreements and between environmental agreements and other inter- national economic and social institutions (R17). International agreements are indispensable for addressing ecosystem-related concerns that span national boundaries, but numerous obstacles weaken their current effectiveness. The limited, focused nature of the goals and mechanisms included in most bilateral and multi- lateral environmental treaties does not address the broader issue of ecosystem services and human well-being. Steps are now being taken to increase coordination among these treaties, and this could help broaden the focus of the array of instruments. How- ever, coordination is also needed between the multilateral envi- ronmental agreements and the more politically powerful international legal institutions, such as economic and trade agreements, to ensure that they are not acting at cross-purposes. @ Enhancement of human and institutional capacity for assessing the consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being and act- ing on such assessments (RWG). Technical capacity for agriculture, forestry, and fisheries management is still limited in many coun- tries, but it is vastly greater than the capacity for effective man- agement for ecosystem services not derived from these sectors. B Addressing unsustainable consumption patterns (RWG). Con- sumption of ecosystem services and nonrenewable resources affects biodiversity and ecosystems directly and indirectly. Total consumption is a factor of per capita consumption, population, and efficiency of resource use. Slowing biodiversity loss requires that the combined effect of these factors be reduced. 6. What are the prospects for reducing the rate of loss of biodiversity by 2010 or beyond and what are the implications for the Convention on Biological Diversity? @ Biodiversity will continue to decline during this century. While biodiversity makes important contributions to human well- being, many of the actions needed to promote economic devel- opment and reduce hunger and poverty are likely to reduce biodiversity. This makes the policy changes necessary to reverse these trends difficult to agree on and implement in the short term. @ Since biodiversity is essential to human well-being and sur- vival, however, biodiversity loss has to be controlled in the long term. A reduction in the rate of loss of biodiversity is a neces- sary first step. Progress in this regard can be achieved by 2010 for some components, but it is unlikely that it can be achieved for biodiversity overall at the global level by 2010. @& Many of the necessary actions to reduce the rate of biodi- versity loss are already incorporated in the programs of work of the Convention on Biological Diversity, and if fully implemented they would make a substantial difference. Yet even if existing measures are implemented, this would be insufficient to address all the drivers of biodiversity loss. In April 2002, the Conference of the Parties of the Conven- tion on Biological Diversity adopted the target, subsequently endorsed in the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation adopted at the World Summit on Sustainable Development, to “achieve by 2010 a significant reduction of the current rate of biodiversity loss at the global, regional, and national level as a contribution to poverty alleviation and to the benefit of all life on earth” (CBD Decision VI/26). In 2004, the Conference of the Parties adopted a framework for evaluation, including a small number of global 2010 sub-targets, and a set of indicators that will be used in assessing progress (C4.5.2). To assess progress toward the target, the Conference of the Parties defines biodiversity loss as the “long-term or permanent qualitative or quantitative reduction in components of biodiver- sity and their potential to provide goods and services, to be measured at global, regional, and national levels” (CBD Decision VII/30). The objectives of the Convention and the 2010 target are translated into policies and concrete action through the agreement of international guidelines and the implementation of work programs of the Convention and through National Biodi- versity Strategies and Action Plans. An unprecedented effort would be necessary to achieve by 2010 a significant reduction of the current rate of biodiversity loss at global, regional, and national levels. The 2010 target implies that the rate of loss of biodiversity—as indicated by mea- sures of a range of components or attributes—would need to be significantly less in 2010 than the current or recent trends described in Key Question 3 of this report. This is unlikely to be achieved globally for various reasons: current trends show few indications of slowing the rate of loss; most of the direct drivers of biodiversity loss are projected to increase; and inertia in natural and human institutional systems implies lags of years, decades, or even centuries between actions taken and their impact on biodiversity and ecosystems (C4, S7, S10, RS). With appropriate responses at global, regional, and especially national level, it is possible to achieve, by 2010, a reduction in the rate of biodiversity loss for certain components of biodiver- sity or for certain indicators, and in certain regions, and several of the 2010 sub-targets adopted by the CBD could be met. Overall the rate of habitat loss—the main driver of biodiversity loss in terrestrial ecosystems—is slowing in certain regions and could slow globally if proactive approaches are taken (S10). This may not necessarily translate into lower rates of species loss, how- ever, because of the nature of the relationship between numbers of species and area of habitat, because decades or centuries may pass before species extinctions reach equilibrium with habitat loss, and because other drivers of loss, such as climate change, nutrient loading, and invasive species, are projected to increase. While rates of habitat loss are decreasing in temperate areas, they are projected to continue to increase in tropical areas (C4, $10). At the same time, if areas of particular importance for biodi- versity and functioning ecological networks are maintained within protected areas or by other conservation mechanisms, and if proactive measures are taken to protect endangered species, the rate of biodiversity loss of the targeted habitats and species could be reduced. Further, it would be possible to achieve many of the sub-targets aimed at protecting the components of biodiversity if the response options that are already incorporated into the CBD programs of work are implemented. However, it appears highly unlikely that the sub-targets aimed at addressing threats to biodi- versity—land use change, climate change, pollution, and invasive alien species—could be achieved by 2010. It will also be a major challenge to maintain goods and services from biodiversity to support human well-being (C4, $10, R5). (See Table 6.1.) (continued on page 80) EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis TH able 6.1. ProspEcTS FOR ATTAINING THE 2010 SUB-TARGETS AGREED TO UNDER THE CONVENTION on BroLocicat Diversity Goals and Targets Prospects for Progress by 2010 Protect the components of biodiversity Goal 1. Promote the conservation of the biological diversity of ecosystems, habitats, and biomes. Target 1.1: At least 10% of each of the world’s ecological regions effectively conserved. Target 1.2: Areas of particular importance to biodiversity protected. Goal 2. Promote the conservation of species diversity. Target 2.1: Restore, maintain, or reduce the decline of populations of species of selected taxonomic groups. Target 2.2: Status of threatened species improved. Goal 3. Promote the conservation of genetic diversity. Target 3.1: Genetic diversity of crops, livestock, and harvested species of trees, fish, and wildlife and other valuable species conserved, and associated indigenous and local knowledge maintained. Promote sustainable use Goal 4. Promote sustainable use and consumption. Target 4.1: Biodiversity-based products derived from sources that are sustainably managed, and production areas managed consistent with the conservation of biodiversity. Target 4.2: Unsustainable consumption of biological resources or that has an impact on biodiversity reduced. Target 4.3: No species of wild flora or fauna endangered by international trade. Address threats to biodiversity Goal 5. Pressures from habitat loss, land use change and degradation, and unsustainable water use reduced. Target 5.1: Rate of loss and degradation of natural habitats decreased. Goal 6. Control threats from invasive alien species. Target 6.1: Pathways for major potential alien invasive species controlled. Target 6.2: Management plans in place for major alien species that threaten ecosystems, habitats, or species. 78 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis Good prospects for most terrestrial regions. Major challenge to achieve for marine regions. Difficult to provide adequate protection of inland water systems. Many species will continue to decline in abundance and distribution, but restoration and maintenance of priority species possible. More species will become threatened, but species-based actions will | improve status of some. oe Good prospects for ex situ conservation. Overall, agricultural systems likely to continue to be simplified. Significant losses of fish genetic diversity likely. Genetic resources in situ and traditional knowledge will be protected through some projects, but likely to decline overall. Progress expected for some components of biodiversity. ee Sustainable use unlikely to be a large share of total products and production areas. rs Unsustainable consumption likely to increase. Progress possible, for example through implementation of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora. Sas wan Unlikely to reduce overall pressures in the most biodiversity-sensitive regions. However, proactive protection of some of the most important sites is possible. : Pressure is likely to increase (from greater transport, trade, an tourism, especially in Global Orchestration scenario). Measu address major pathways could be put in place (especially in Glob Orchestration and TechnoGarden scenarios). Management plans could be developed. Goals and Targets Address threats to biodiversity (continued) Goal 7. Address challenges to biodiversity from climate change and pollution. Target 7.1: Maintain and enhance resilience of the components of biodiversity to adapt to climate change. Target 7.2: Reduce pollution and its impacts on biodiversity. Prospects for Progress by 2010 Pressures from both climate change and pollution, especially nitrogen deposition, will increase. These increases can be mitigated under UNFCCC for climate change and through agricultural and trade policy, as well as through energy policy for nitrogen pollution. Mitigation measures include carbon sequestration through LULUCF and use of wetiands to sequester or denitrify reactive nitrogen. Proactive measures to reduce impacts on biodiversity possible, but challenging given other pressures. Maintain goods and services from biodiversity to support human well-being Goal 8. Maintain capacity of ecosystems to deliver goods and services and support livelihoods. Target 8.1: Capacity of ecosystems to deliver goods and services maintained. Target 8.2: Biological resources that support sustainable ’ livelihoods, local food security, and health care, especially of poor people, maintained. Given expected increases in drivers, can probably be achieved only on a selective basis by 2010. Attainment of target 8.2 would contribute to the achievement of the MDG 2015 targets, especially targets 1, 2, and 9. Protect traditional knowledge, innovations, and practices Goal 9. Maintain sociocultural diversity of indigenous and local communities. Target 9.1: Protect traditional knowledge, innovations, and practices. Target 9.2: Protecf the rights of indigenous and local communities over their traditional knowledge, innovations, and practices, including their rights to benefit sharing. Goal 10. Ensure the fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising out of the use of genetic resources. Target 10.1: All transfers of genetic resources are in line with the CBD, the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture, and other applicable agreements. Target 10.2: Benefits arising from the commercial and other utilization of genetic resources shared with the countries providing such resources. Ensure the fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising out of the use of genetic resources It is possible to take measures to protect traditional knowledge and rights, but continued long-term decline in traditional knowledge likely. Progress is possible. In the MA scenarios, more equitable outcomes were obtained under the Global Orchestration and TechnoGarden scenarios, but were not achieved under Order from Strength. (continued on page 80) EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 79 On BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY (continued) Goals and Targets Ensure provision of adequate resources Goal 11. Parties have improved financial, human, scientific, technical, and technological capacity to implement the Convention. Target 11.1: New and additional financial resources are transferred to developing-country Parties to allow for the effective implementation of their commitments under the Convention, in accordance with Article 20. Target 11.2: Technology is transferred to developing-country Parties to allow for the effective implementation of their commitments under the Convention, in accordance with Article 20. There is substantial scope for greater protection of biodiver- sity through actions justified on their economic merits for material or other benefits to human well-being. Conservation of biodiversity is essential as a source of particular biological resources, to maintain different ecosystem services, to maintain the resilience of ecosystems, and to provide options for the future. These benefits that biodiversity provides to people have not been well reflected in decision-making and resource manage- ment, and thus the current rate of loss of biodiversity is higher than what it would be had these benefits been taken into account (R5). (See Figure 6.1.) However, the total amount of biodiversity that would be con- served based strictly on utilitarian considerations is likely to be less than the amount present today (medium certainty). Even if utilitarian benefits were taken fully into account, planet Earth would still be losing biodiversity, as other utilitarian benefits often “compete” with the benefits of maintaining greater diver- sity. Many of the steps taken to increase the production of spe- cific ecosystem services require the simplification of natural systems (in agriculture, for example). Moreover, managing eco- systems without taking into account the full range of ecosystem services may not necessarily require the conservation of biodiver- sity. (For example, a forested watershed could provide clean water and timber whether it was covered by a diverse native forest or a single-species plantation, but a single-species plantation may not provide significant levels of many other services, such as pollina- tion, food, and cultural services.) Ultimately, the level of biodi- versity that survives on Earth will be determined to a significant extent by ethical concerns in addition to utilitarian ones (C4, C11, S10, R5). 80 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis Table 6.1. PRospEcTs FOR ATTAINING THE 2010 SUB-TARGETS AGREED TO UNDER THE CONVENTION Trade-offs between achieving the MDG targets for 2015 and reducing the rate of biodiversity loss are likely. For example, improving rural road networks—a common feature of hunger reduction strategies—will likely accelerate rates of biodiversity loss (directly through habitat fragmentation and indirectly by facilitating unsustainable harvests of bushmeat and so on). More- over, one of the MA scenarios (Global Orchestration) suggests that future development paths that show relatively good progress toward the MDG of eradicating extreme poverty and improving health also showed relatively high rates of habitat loss and associ- ated loss of species over 50 years. (See Figure 6.2.) This does not imply that biodiversity loss is, in itself, good for poverty and hunger reduction. Instead, it indicates that many economic development activities aimed at poverty reduction are likely to have negative impacts on biodiversity unless the value of biodi- versity and related ecosystem services are factored in ($10, R19). In fact, some short-term improvements in material welfare and livelihoods due to actions that lead to the loss of biodiversity that is particularly important to the poor and vulnerable may actually make these gains temporary—and may in fact exacerbate all con- stituents of poverty in the long term. To avoid this, efforts for the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity need to be inte- grated into countries’ strategies for poverty reduction (S10, R5). But there are potential synergies as well as trade-offs between the short-term MDG targets for 2015 and reducing the rate of loss of biodiversity by 2010. For a reduction in the rate of biodi- versity loss to contribute to poverty alleviation, priority would need to be given to protecting the biodiversity of particular importance to the well-being of poor and vulnerable people. Given that biodiversity underpins the provision of ecosystem ser- vices that are vital to human well-being, long-term sustainable achievement of the Millennium Development Goals requires that biodiversity loss is reduced controlled as part of MDG 7 (ensur- ing environmental sustainability). Given the characteristic response times for human systems (political, social, and economic) and ecological systems, longer- term goals and targets—say, for 2050—are needed in addition to short-term targets to guide policy and actions. Biodiversity loss is projected to continue for the foreseeable future (S10). The indirect drivers of biodiversity loss are related to economic, demographic, sociopolitical, cultural, and technological factors. Consumption of ecosystem services and of energy and nonre- newable resources has an impact, directly and indirectly, on bio- diversity and ecosystems. Total consumption is a factor of per capita consumption, population, and efficiency of natural resource use. Halting biodiversity loss (or reducing it to a mini- mal level) requires that the combined effect of these factors in driving biodiversity loss be reduced (C4, $7). Differences in the inertia of different drivers of biodiversity change and different attributes of biodiversity itself make it difficult to set targets or goals over a single time frame. For some drivers, such as the overharvesting of particular species, lag times are rather short; for others, such as nutrient loading and, especially, climate change, lag times are much longer. Addressing the indirect drivers of change may also require somewhat longer time horizons given political, socioeconomic, and demographic inertias. Population is projected to stabilize around the middle of the century and then decrease. Attention also needs to be given to addressing unsustainable consumption patterns. At the same time, while actions can be taken to reduce the drivers and their impacts on biodiversity, some change is inevitable, and adaptation to such change will become an 1. How Mucu Broprversiry Witt REMAIN A CENTURY FROM Now UNDER DIFFERENT VALUE FRAMEWORKS? The outer circle in the Figure represents the present level of global biodiversity. Each inner circle represents the level of biodiversity under different value frameworks. The white area represents non-utilitarian values like ensuring equitable access to biodiversity and intrinsic values. Question marks indicate uncertainties where the boundaries exist. Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment With consideration of non-utilitarian values: Additional amount of biodiversity that should be conserved for non-utilitarian values such as intrinsic values and the equitable distribution of biodiversity. With consideration of resilience, thresholds, and option values: Additional amount of biodiversity that should be conserved for utilitarian reasons because of its role in maintaining capacity to adapt to change, as precaution against thresholds, and for option and existence values. With consideration of the biodiversity role in ecosystem services: Additional amount of biodiversity that should be conserved for utilitarian reasons because of its role in providing and sustaining ecosystem services. Business as usual: _” What will remain under current trends and policies given trade-offs with economic development, agriculture, etc. Please note that the circle sizes are only conceptual and do not correspond to any calculation or estimate. EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 81 Ge increasingly important component of response measures (C4.5.2, S7, R5). The world in 2100 could have substantial remaining biodi- versity or could be relatively homogenized and contain rela- tively low levels of diversity. Sites that are globally important for biodiversity could be protected while locally or nationally important biodiversity is lost. Science can help to inform the costs and benefits of these different futures and identify paths to achieve them, along with the risks and the thresholds. Where there is insufficient information to predict the consequences of alternative actions, science can identify the range of possible outcome. Science can thus help ensure that social decisions are made with the best available information. But ultimately the choice of biodiversity futures must be determined by society. igure 6.2. TRADE-OFFS BETWEEN PROMOTING HUMAN WELL-BEING AND LIMITING Bropiversity Loss UNDER THE Four MA Scenarios TO 2050 (S.SDM, S10) Loss of biodiversity is least in the two scenarios that feature a proactive approach to environmental management (TechnoGarden and Adapting Mosaic), while the Global Orchestration scenario does most to promote human well-being and achieves the fastest progress toward the MDG of eradicating extreme poverty. The Order from Strength scenario performs badly on both sets of objectives. Order from Strength Global Orchestration Material Material well-being well-being Social Social relations Health relations Health Freedom Security Freedom Security and choice and choice SS CES EE Ee Ee Ga SD © CES CD EN CR Biodiversity loss 4 Biodiversity loss 4 Adapting Mosaic TechnoGarden Material Material well-being well-being | Social Social relations Health relations Health Freedom Security Freedom Security and choice and choice GEESE ENSES EEN OS Rm EE Biodiversity loss 2 Biodiversity loss 2 Year Present Year 2050 situation 2050 Decline # Loss of vascular plant species on land Improvement fone Raa S 82 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment APPENDIXES APPENDIX A ABBREVIATIONS, ACRONYMS, AND FIGURE SOURCES Abbreviations and Acronyms AM -— Adapting Mosaic (scenario) CBD — Convention on Biological Diversity CO: — carbon dioxide CONABIO — National Commission for the Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity (Mexico) GDP — gross domestic product GO — Global Orchestration (scenario) INBio — National Biodiversity Institute (Costa Rica) IPCC — Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IUCN — World Conservation Union LULUCF — land use, land use change, and forestry MA — Millennium Ecosystem Assessment MDG —- Millennium Development Goal NGO — nongovernmental organization NO: — nitrogen oxides NWEP — non-wood forest product OECD -— Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OS — Order from Strength (scenario) PA — protected area TDR -— tradable development rights TEV — total economic value TG — TechnoGarden (scenario) TSR — total species richness UNFCCC — United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Figure Sources Most Figures used in this report were redrawn from Figures included in the technical assess- ment reports in the chapters referenced in the Figure captions. Preparation of several Figures involved additional information as follows: Figures 1.2 and 1.3 These figures present the 14 biomes of the WWF terrestrial biome classification, based on WWF terrestrial ecoregions: Olson, D. M., E. Dinerstein, E. D. Wikramanayake, N. D. Burgess, G. V. N. Powell, E. C. Underwood, J. A. D’Amico, I. Itoua, H. E. Strand, J. C. Morrison, C. J. Loucks, T. E Allnutt, T. H. Ricketts, Y. Kura, J. E Lamoreux, W. W. Wettengel, P. Hedao, and K. R. Kassem, 2001: Terrestrial ecoregions of the world: a new map of life on earth. BioScience, 51, 933-938. Figure 2.1 This figure was developed from material cited in R17: Polasky, S., E. Nielson, E. Lonsdorf, P. Fackler and A. Starfield. Con- serving Species in a Working Lanscape: Land Use with Biological and Economic Objectives. Ecological Applications (in press). Figures 3.4 and 3.5 These figures were developed from BirdLife International material cited in C4 and C20: Butchart, S. H. M., A. J. Stattersfield, L. A. Bennun, S. M. Shutes, H. R. Akcakaya, J. E. M. Baillie, S. N. Stuart, C. Hilton- Taylor, and G. M. Mace, 2004. Measuring global trends in the status of biodiversity: Red List Indices for birds. Philosophical Transac- tions, LoS Biology. EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 83 Figure 3.7 The source figure (C20 Fig 20.12) is derived from the Living Planet Index in: Loh, J., and M. Wackernagel, eds., 2004: The Living Planet Report 2004. Gland, Swit- zerland: World Wide Fund for Nature and Cambridge, UK: UNEP-WCMC. Figure 3.11 This figure was developed from figure 4.3 in: Scholes, R. J., and Biggs, R. (eds) 2004: Ecosystem Services in Southern Africa: A Regional Assessment. The Regional-Scale Component of the Southern African Millen- nium Ecosystem Assessment. CSIR, Pretoria, South Africa. Figure 3.15 This figure was developed from material cited in C4: Wade, T. G., K. H. Riitters, J. D. Wickham, and K. B. Jones. 2003. Distri- bution and causes of global forest fragmen- tation. Conservation Ecology 7(2): 7. Online at: www.consecol.org/vol7/iss2/art7. Figure 3.16 The source figure (C20 Fig 20.12) is based on data and maps provided in: Revenga, C., J. Brunner, N. Henninger, K. Kassem, and R. Payne, 2000: Pilot Analysis of Global Eco- systems: Freshwater Systems, World Resources Institute, Washington D.C., 83 pp. Figure Sources (continued) Figures 3.17 and 3.18 The source figures (S7 Fig 7.16 and 7.18) were developed from IFADATA statistics, downloaded from www. fertilizer.org/ifa/sta- tistics.asp. Figure 3.19 The source Figure (R9 Fig 9.2) was modi- fied to include two additional deposition maps for 1860 and 2050 that had been in- cluded in the original source for R9 Fig 9.2: Galloway, J. P., et al., 2004, Biogeochemistry 70: 153-226. Figure 3.20 The source figure (S7 Fig 7.13) is based on: IPCC 2002: Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. Cambridge University Press, Cam- bridge. Figures 4.2 and 4.3 These figures use the IMAGE land-cover biome classification, which differs from the WWF terrestrial biomes used in figures 1.2 and 1.3, and is a modified version of the BIOME model: Prentice, I. C., W. Cramer, S. P. Harrison, R. Leemans, R. A. Monserud and A. M. Solomon, 1992. A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate. Journal of Biogeography, 19, 117-134. Further information on the IMAGE model is available from www.rivm.nl/image 84 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis Figure 4.4 This figure incorporates historical changes in the WWE biomes as per figures 1.2 and 1.3, with changes under the MA scenarios using the biome classification of IMAGE, as used in figures 4.2 and 4.3. Figure 4.6 This figure was developed using data pres- ent in S9 and prepared by the Center for Environmental Systems Research, Univer- sity of Kassel. APPENDIX B ASSESSMENT REPORT TABLES OF CONTENTS Note that text references to CF, CWG, SWG, RWG, or SGWG refer to the entire Working Group report. ES refers to the Main Messages in a chapter. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: A Framework for Assessment CE1 Ow CES CE4 CE5 CE6 CE7 CE8 Introduction and Conceptual Framework Ecosystems and Their Services Ecosystems and Human Well-being Drivers of Change in Ecosystems and Their Services Dealing with Scale Concepts of Ecosystem Value and Valuation Approaches Analytical Approaches Strategic Interventions, Response Options, and Decision-making Current State and Trends: Findings of the Condition and Trends Working Group SDM Summary C.01 MA Conceptual Framework C.02 Analytical Approaches for Assessing Ecosystem Conditions and Human Well-being C.03 Drivers of Change (note: this is a synopsis of Scenarios Chapter 7) C.04 Biodiversity C.05 — Ecosystem Conditions and Human Well-being C.06 Vulnerable Peoples and Places C.07 Fresh Water C.08 Food C.09 ~~ Timber, Fuel, and Fiber C.10 New Products and Industries from Biodiversity C.11 Biological Regulation of Ecosystem Services C.12 Nutrient Cycling C.13 Climate and Air Quality C.14 Human Health: Ecosystem Regulation of Infectious Diseases C.15 Waste Processing and Detoxification C.16 Regulation of Natural Hazards: Floods and Fires C.17 Cultural and Amenity Services C.18 = Marine Fisheries Systems C.19 Coastal Systems C.20 Inland Water Systems C21 (€22 E23 C.24 C25 C.26 C27, C.28 Forest and Woodland Systems Dryland Systems Island Systems Mountain Systems Polar Systems Cultivated Systems Urban Systems Synthesis Scenarios: Findings of the Scenarios Working Group SDM S.01 S.02 S.03 S.04 S.05 S.06 Summary MA Conceptual Framework Global Scenarios in Historical Perspective Ecology in Global Scenarios State of Art in Simulating Future Changes in Ecosystem Services Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: Rationale and Overview Methodology for Developing the MA Scenarios Drivers of Change in Ecosystem Condition and Services Four Scenarios Changes in Ecosystem Services and Their Drivers across the Scenarios Biodiversity across Scenarios Human Well-being across Scenarios Interactions among Ecosystem Services Lessons Learned for Scenario Analysis Policy Synthesis for Key Stakeholders Policy Responses: Findings of the Responses Working Group SDM R01 R.02 R.03 R.04 R.05 R.06 R.07 R.08 Summary MA Conceptual Framework Typology of Responses Assessing Responses Recognizing Uncertainties in Evaluating Responses Biodiversity Food and Ecosystems Freshwater Ecosystem Services Wood, Fuelwood, and Non-wood Forest Products EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 85 R.09 Nutrient Management R.10 Waste Management, Processing, and Detoxification R.11 Flood and Storm Control R.12 Ecosystems and Vector-borne Disease Control R.13._ Climate Change R.14 — Cultural Services R.15 Integrated Responses R.16 Consequences and Options for Human Health R.17._ Consequences of Responses on Human Well-being and Poverty Reduction R.18 Choosing Responses R.19 Implications for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals Multiscale Assessments: Findings of the Sub-global Assessments Working Group SDM — Summary SG.01 MA Conceptual Framework SG.02 Overview of the MA Sub-global Assessments SG.03 Linking Ecosystem Services and Human Well-being SG.04 The Multiscale Approach SG.05 Using Multiple Knowledge Systems: Benefits and Challenges SG.06 Assessment Process SG.07 Drivers of Ecosystem Change SG.08 Condition and Trends of Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity SG.09 Responses to Ecosystem Change and their Impacts on Human Well-being SG.10 Sub-global Scenarios SG.1i Communities, Ecosystems, and Livelihoods SG.12 Reflections and Lessons Learned Sub-Global Assessments SG-SAfMA Southern African Assessment SG-Portugal Portugal Assessment Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Publications Technical Volumes (available from Island Press) Ecosystems and Human Well-being: A Framework for Assessment Current State and Trends: Findings of the Condition and Trends Working Group, Volume 1 Scenarios: Findings of the Scenarios Working Group, Volume 2 Policy Responses: Findings of the Responses Working Group, Volume 3 Multiscale Assessments: Findings of the Sub-global Assessments Working Group, Volume 4 Our Human Planet: Summary for Decision-makers Synthesis Reports (available at MAweb.org) Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Biodiversity Synthesis Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Desertification Synthesis Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Human Health Synthesis Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Wetlands Synthesis Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Opportunities and Challenges for Business and Industry 86 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis Secretariat Support Organizations The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) coordinates the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Secretariat, which is based at the following partner institutions: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Italy Institute of Economic Growth, India International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Mexico (until 2002) Meridian Institute, United States National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Netherlands (until mid-2004) Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE), France UNEP-World Conservation Monitoring Centre, United Kingdom University of Pretoria, South Africa University of Wisconsin-Madison, United States World Resources Institute (WRI), United States WorldFish Center, Malaysia Maps and graphics: Emmanuelle Bournay and Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal, Norway The production of maps and graphics was made possible by the generous support of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Norway and UNEP/GRID-Arendal. Photos: Front cover: @ Pete Oxford Back cover: @ Staffan Widstrand SZ Be =) C9) ICSU IUCN G E F International Council for Science The World Conservation Union — ¥ : n = (UNITED NEWULOINS m= , INDZ N Kd Sd Tl S5/FOUNDATION VENTION ON WETLANDS amar, fen, 191 Di WORLD ISBN 1-569) a-3 RESOURCES INSTITUTE 4 9 F7Q15 40 75586 Qe