Historic, archived document

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CT) Av) FlE 4Y& US. Department of Agriculture - Foreign Agricultural Service - Washington, D.C.

Soricuhure circular

Cocoa

FCB 2-84 October 1984 — ~ BUMPER WORLD COCOA BEAN CROP FORECAST FOR 1984/85 } 353 eo = / o poe ‘5 oo aa San SUMMARY Lore SOF, as =3 wir

World cocoa bean production for the 1984/85 October-September crop-year i forecast at 1.74 million tons, 14 percent greater than the. drouglit-damaged; 1 1983/84 outturn and slightly above the record 1981/82 harvest. The larger<S% harvest is attributed to a recovery in West African production, following 2 “‘“* consecutive years of unusually dry weather. Rainfall during the development

stages of the 1984/85 West African crop has been quite adequate and the overall condition of the trees has greatly improved as soil moisture levels

have been nearly replenished. Also contributing to the larger harvest are expectations of a recovery in Brazilian production as well as a substantial

boost in Malaysian output, reflecting new areas coming into bearing.

World cocoa bean grindings in calendar 1984 are estimated at a record 1.67 million tons, compared with 1.65 million tons a year earlier. Grindings in 1985 are forecast to closely approximate those of 1984. If production and grind estimates are realized, world stocks will increase by 58,000 tons in 1985, following 2 straight years of inventory reductions. Based on the current rate of consumption, world carryover’ stocks of cocoa beans at the close of the 1983/84 season were estimated at about a 3-month supply, down from a 4-month supply, as of September 30, 1983.

Cocoa bean prices (the average of the daily closing price of the nearest 3 active futures trading months on the New York market) have averaged $2,398 per ton during the January-September 1984 period, up from $2,030 during calendar 1983 and well above the 1982 average of $1,640 per ton. Cocoa prices were high during the early months of 1984 in response to a tight supply situation, but have since declined as the new crop season approached.

The 1980 International Cocoa Agreement (ICCA) was extended for a l-year period because members were unable to successfully conclude negotiations for a new ICCA. Thus, the 2 cents per pound levy and the intervention price range of $1.06-$1.46 per pound will remain in effect until September 30, 1985. A Negotiating Conference was held in Geneva, October 8-26, 1984, in continuing efforts to develop a new ICCA.

Note: All tons are metric (2,204.6 lbs).

COCOA BEANS: PRODUCTION IN SPECIFIED COUNTRIES, 1979/80-1984/85 1/ 1,000 metric tons) =

g 2 : 2 : : Forecast Region and country : 1979/80 : 1980/81 : 1981/82 : 1982/83 : 1983/84 : 1984/85 North America: : COSEAMRAU Cas eielaterercieiclereisieteleteterore eieic Wo 5.0 5.4 20 220 3.0 Cubarjejereieiete sfolelatatoleteiaieraveleloletereierels 1.0 1.0 Ls© 1.0 1.0 1.0 Domind can Republics sree ielolelste eres 29.0 33.0 42.7 43.3 41.5 43.5 Grenada....... pfeietetareioteiioletaicieiatetsts 1.8 3.0 1.6 7S) 2.0 2.0 Guatemal as cisisicter tere isve)erelels save aveiers : eS) 2.0 1.8 weS aS 15 Flaiiitetitrerercjeteretetolersieleiereverevereysioleteteterirs 2.8 Ds) Ze 3.0 25 Za Honduras sis crete icietetcleieicielsicraie ciate ooo 35 <5 <5 a5 5 a5 JAMAICA. nyc: jeis iol stsforssveleysieyaisisisisis as 1.4 1.8 1.4 2.8 D5 225 MEX: CO sravererelelerercloterstevereraicieteleretcrcicrehs 36.0 5250 42.0 43.0 38.0 40.0 Nicaragua....... soa0000C So0eb00 S 572 aye. 5? 52 az. 5 PanaMmaly..cjeieve s/eleie eave spaveerelersternajerats 1.0 .8 .8 .8 0 1.0 Trinidad and Tobago............: 2.1 2.9 Be Tf 3.0 50) 3.0 QAM Bossooosc000000000000500 : 52 ae, 52 52 5? aye. MOCallle arverereveiereiavere eicloisioteisisteteteions 85.8 84.9 102.8 103.7 95.9 100.9 South America: BOs vellamreteverelovetetelevaletereieteiaterersistetetels 3.0 3.0 550 Bo5 De'S Z25 BrazZailereetclereterctelelereterersielotersioteversorets 296.0 351.0 315.0 339.0 300.0 360.0 Collombilaercicicctectetactetoersieicielsisresiens S5e5 36.0 38.5 39.8 40.5 41.5 ECUad OD Se icis ciose cs eiore erie ereleereio eevee 95.0 85.0 87.5 55.0 50.0 60.0 PO TUs grove ciaiays\eisisrelers eiersisvelsis savereieien 8.0 9.0 9.5 10.0 8.0 10.0 SUN AMC EH atetevaraletelelelslotelelekersistatetaiersis 51 al ail jul sll 51 WeneZuelliae a cyersvcteieverclersicieveleieieioterste rs Ze S 14,3 14.8 14.8 14.0 15.0 TOGA s aicvets sisiorsvate o:0 cielo ecelseisiccsie's 448.1 498.4 468.4 461.2 415.1 489.1 Africa INTO 56 S50 onOGDODDKD000R00000 8 2 2 ~2 «2 52 57 CAMETOONE: <fevaicic:svetersre's cieielovereveveisters W 23507, 119.5 120.1 106.0 108.0 115.0 ComOTowls lands yryeveicterereiers eters lersieys 1 Sal onl sil sil ait GONG Odie iss eletasieis leis © eis's clels slstexs as DoT] 2.0 BSS) 1.4 2.0 AO Equatonials Guineas -1i-ile'eelelelereiis 6.0 8.0 8.0 9.0 9.0 10.0 Gabon...... sialetetatetsleleretareretsisieccialat : 55 2.9 2.9 25 a5 2S Ghaniabrareyerereretayevercletoieoieierevoteloretovelete : 296.0 258.0 225.0 178.0 158.0 185.0 Ivory: Goast, S/iesjssllereieleicts cies ei es 7940 412.0 456.0 360.4 415.0 450.0 Liberia..... ere tatieye Bie ore este ewes Baz 5.0 555 SEZ 5.0 5.0 Madagascatyeremiclsiteeteielelecisictcicietstotens 1.8 At 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Niwas AY/ssoscueccoscssa90c000s = WED 155.0 182.0 156.0 2550 160.0 Sao Tome and Principe..........: Del 6.5 Dol 4.7 5.0 6.0 Simca WevesooansnocopaToooode & 10.5 9.2 9.5 9.2 9.0 O85 ANZA aap tepeteverare atayereterelelcialereverersysnc 50 1.0 Hey: bss) RS, 1.0 TOS On Sica spec Sais o sinielelsle ie steveretois S 1558 16.0 10.9 9.8 S50 S10 Wanda’, 2c cicye stersioversis isis os isiere eiovsts : Sil Sal all all oA mel ZAUTOS atatatara-c lov siark arelaleievetsiccicrecetelovens 555 72 S57 4.4 4.7 4.0 4.5 TO Gall yaysie eis ralereietole:ctoreietess’ereveversiele 1,029.0 1,003.0 1-OS5e 1 850.4 861.0 967.7 Asia and Oceania: leg Msi Wee. ooocnaccg000de0adcs aye: ae 22 5 72 52 32 MiriGil ae reretateveretoletelercisiclatetstatetatate BODE 1,5 2.0 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.0 IndoneSitiaactan acces cance ccc noe: 10.3 13.1 15.0 15.0 16.0 18.0 Maillays Parvericteyeleterelclaletereletersiciorcielo ic 35.4 49.1 61.0 69.0 91.0 120.0 Papua New Guinea...............: 30.0 27.0 2955 28.0 30.0 30.0 PHIMe pPpPINES aereleveretersistelstotelevelererelers = Bt! 4.2 5a 4.5 555 Sa0 Solomon! Istlandsey.tecieieieiciels = c1erers 4 4) ae By/ Ew? af Srilglankalrecctletecleteiettetaslotetets terials 1S 155 5 1S 1S 15 WANUAIELT eyoraeveteteteialeterelors cle loreteretaicrsrens AG SH od iil .9 .9 WEStELM Samoa’ «crewsiais sievelsiersielaisvers = ile 1.0 6 ih. 7/ 1-0 eS TOG ALS cyeieratetslsiaversteleteiefots’e s/s siete ekt 84.5 99.1 118.3 126.2 151.8 182.8 Grand@totaillerrarereieveteicievicisrcrortelclerre S ihKGe7n! 1,685.4 1,724.6 1,541.5 1,523.8 1,740.5 17 Estimates refer to an October-September crop year. 2/7 Includes Dominica, St. Lucia, Guadeloupe, and

Martinique. 3/ Includes some cocoa marketed from Ghana. 4/ Includes cocoa marketed through Benin and Cameroon. a“ i

Foreign Agricultural Service. Prepared or estimated on the basis of official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source material, reports of Agricultural Attaches and Foreign Service Officers, results of office research and related information.

October 1984 Foreign Production Estimates Division, FAS/USDA

WORLD COCOA BEAN SUPPLY-DEMAND AND APPARENT STOCK CHANGE, 1949/50-1984/85

: Production 1/ : : :New York spot Oct.-Sept. : Grind 2/_ : Apparent § : Accra cocoa season Gross : Net : stock change :bean prices 3/

poco ccs eee eeen-------- 1,000 metric tons---------------- cents/1b T9AS SOWA. «cre ons 768 760 789 -29 29.0 TOSO/SUES Pee a0 806 798 756 +42 30e77. HOSS 2h cote Acree 647 641 726 -85 S592 POS 27S Sace cet 809 801 809 -8 SA ae 1953/54 stake 2 786 778 744 +34 5655 SSA S Serres 786 778 731 +47 41.4 LSS /SOse GaaGe ee : 836 828 837 -9 28.8 195SC/SWerecee ee 898 889 919 -30 DT ae. LOST Sone ee ; 761 753 858 -105 43.5 VOSS/SOM is cre veers 899 890 874 +16 38.0 1959/6082 2 nee e 1,043 1055 931 +102 29.9 1960/69. eon... ¢ 1,164 1 TSZ 1,026 +126 25D 1961/62 ee : 125 A 1,120 -6 21.9 1962/6508 Ot: I altG2 1,150 1,154 -4 23.9 NOGS/G4e acc cele : 1,239 L227, 1,194 +33 LARA V9G4/O5)..4.cescrcaeoe 1,491 1,476 1,340 +136 18.4 1965/6628. -2eRee : 220 1,208 1,388 -180 25 ol 1966/67. 22668.<:<ere 1-356 NG eVAS) 1,386 -63 LTS 1967 /G8 sake. <a ie S52 ie 358 1,410 -72 30.9 1968/69 5 shece% oe 12:56 1,224 W353 -129 AS al 1969/70 er. c's 308 hsA25 1,409 S55 +54 aieS 1.9710) 7a ates 1,493 1,478 1,438 +40 29.2 UST geaoee wae 1) S72 1,556 1,567 =n 29.0 LG72 pliSectacmins. ccc: 1,406 15, 992 RSS -159 5 5ErS UTS Tavs spencers 1,458 1,443 1,489 -46 91.2 OTA er erties 542 WA S47/ ibaa 7/1 +56 82.7 1975/76stie cas sere ysis 1,496 1,536 -40 92.0 OUR BAC E Re = 1555 1,341 1595 -52 189.8 OTT See SIONS We oe2 1,497 SAY +80 AYA ea 119797 7 Oo eee 1,500 1,485 1,472 +13 mee aSales 1979/80. cc te cee : 1,647 ost esol! +120 E2545 1980/ Siete ess oes 1,685 1,668 1,596 +72 90.6 19817) 82a ees 1725 1,708 1,608 +100 80.2 1992/8530 . eee 1,542 1527 1,653 -126 84,2 1985/84 Saat 1,524 1,509 1,667 -158 106.6 1984/85 forecast: 1,740 e725 1,665 +58 ---

e

ay) FAS data. An adjustment of 1 percent for loss in weight is made to arrive at a net production figure. 2/ Gill § Duffus data. Calendar year grind, refers to last year of crop year. FAS data for last 2 years. 3/ Average for October-September

year. 4/ Beginning October 1977, all price data refer to the average of the daily closing price of the nearest 3 active futures trading months on the New York market.

Foreign Agricultural Service. Prepared or estimated on the basis of official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source material, reports of Agricultural Attaches and Foreign Service Officers, results of office research and related information.

October 1984 Horticultural and Tropical Products Division, FAS/USDA

MAJOR PRODUCERS

Ivory Coast production for 1984/85 is forecast at a near-record 450,000 tons, reflecting improved weather conditions and young trees increasing in

productivity. Although the drought -damaged 1983/84 crop was placed at between 400,000 to 415,000 tons, it was well above the poor 1982/83 harvest, which was adversely affected by severe drought and brush fires. Bean sizes of the 1983/84 main crop were small, averaging between 120-150/100 grams, compared with a normal count of 100/100 grams. With the return of more normal rainfall, the 1984 mid crop and early pickings of the 1984/85 main crop indicate good bean size and improved overall quality of the crop moving to market.

The government has increased the producer price for the 1984/85 season to 375 CFAF per kilogram from 350 CFAF paid during the 1983/84 crop year (464 CFAF=U.S. $1 as of September). The higher price should encourage farmers to better maintain their farms. However, the quality of Ivory Coast cocoa still is below that of Ghana, despite ongoing efforts by the government to educate growers in proper fermentation and drying techniques. Although nearly 6,200 hectares of new plantings were made in 1983, the government is placing emphasis on raising the productivity of existing trees rather than making widescale new plantings to increase output. Currently, efforts are underway to establish new plantings at Buyo and Soubre in the southwest.

Exports of cocoa beans in 1983 totaled 286,385 tons, of which the Netherlands took 104,283 tons, the United States 70,930, the U.S.S.R. 28,893, France 25,919, and West Germany 20,531 tons. Cocoa butter exports were 14,444 tons, cocoa paste 36,270, cocoa powder 1,250, and chocolate 6,242 tons. France and the United States were the major recipients of the cocoa products exports. Exports of cocoa beans and products have accounted for slightly over one quarter of the foreign exchange earnings of the Ivory Coast in recent years.

Ghana's production is forecast at 185,000 tons, 17 percent greater than the poor 1983/84 outturn, reflecting favorable growing conditions this season. The plentiful supply of food crops and increased producer prices mean that farmers are likely to devote more attention to cocoa.

Ghana and the German Democratic Republic recently signed a bilateral trade agreement by which Ghana will supply 10,000 tons of cocoa and 7,000 tons of copra in exchange for chemicals, tires, machinery, and technology and assistance in road construction and housing projects in the cocoa areas. Some other positive actions taken by the government include a series of currency devaluations, expanded efforts to deliver inputs and consumer good to growers,

and the acceleration of payments to farmers through the check payment scheme. The rehabilitation of an estimated 100,000 hectares of cocoa destroyed by

COCOA BEANS: EXPORTS BY SPECIFIED COUNTRIES, 1978-1983 (Metric tons)

Continent and country : 1978 g 1979 : 1980 : 1981 : 1982 oe l983ei/ Africa : Ramilis oogg00G00d0G00000000000008 1,852 4,330 5,082 2/ 500 2/ 800 2/ 3,600 (CHIEN Gg00dd00000000000000 568 61,613 61,062 80,508 82,378 66,407 ~ 80,052 (Coyne) USIENUISS G6G0000000000000 : 8 15 8 2 AE NS 2/ 10 (CONUS GoGo0000000C 600000 odoccdes 2,560 2,643 1,982 2,193 2,457 A. 2alal Equatorial Guinea........... wees 5,000 5,000 6,000 7,500 7,500 8,000 CEI 5 pad GADD g0000000000 acoue 3,749 3,582 3,660 3,165 2525 2,005 Ghamaleyetereveteteleletcterereleleloreieterereieicieleie mmm c Oneal 199,961 218,560 180, 885 217,102 177,335 Ivory? (Coasticrcilsls scree cai Siaclowicee nn) e244 401A 170,843 305,284 437,169 326,306 286,385 Liberia..... 5000000000000 ayeeyetess 4,043 3,446 3,709 6,728 4,370 5,740 Madagascar....sseeeee arelsteietoretare one 1,208 1,834 1,530 2/ 1,600 1,388 Ze S15 NG Persia rtevercvorcterssinicloteleleretalclers)foten me LOD GOO LMS 032 133,861 ~ 108,960 136,656 152,304 Sao Tome & Principe......... wait 5,954 8,643 6,998 6,000 5,989 317 Sila MLECONE sreleieletel slelelalelelereelelerere 3 Sh AO) 9,639 8,633 9,027 2/ 8,500 2/ 9,000 Tanzaniave sn seein esas a2 000 1,074 1,120 1,134 wa 144 ie he 32 UCEXOG00000 SHODODDODOOOOO0G0 0000 : 22,784 10,098 14,507 17,205 10,113 9,482 Wo andalsrjererererclaloiveletole go000000 50008 262 2/ 200 2/ 200 210 110 80 ZAUTE ehotevereverereteleKelereverecreelenckereVolarciens 4,305 3,500 4,177 4,478 4,137 4,373 Ho Callleverelotevereterehsherotelercvelerenererevevele O15 69 598,902 795,819 869,134 795,519 746,341 Ee Latin America: : BTAZlellerstetavetoleleverevenctevelevelotersieteterciereyici me ml Oss ONE 156,932 123,580 125,246 143, 462 152,773 CositapRiiGalrrrerciererorciercie jdlda00dd0 S 5,826 4,235 2,165 2,018 1,852 2/ 700 Dorion dango bo opoccedcoudsac : 34 30 2/ 30 30 2/ 30 92/50 Dominican Republic........eeeee: 27,638 25,605 23,418 27,261 38,245 38,347 EGUAd OLpeiererereletetolevelstehorelelerclotetolereverens 16,247 13,238 14,104 24,114 38,025 7,019 Grenada....... so00dad0000000 500 2,718 2,448 1,866 2,605 2,075 2,440 Guiad elllouperivstesicrersteleleiienieisvciecclerets 12 7 1 OOS 25 25 Guatemalllaticre <rciere steel sleicielelorcvele ele Be 3,057 1,636 1,098 ~ 366 ~500 ~ 890 nEWe SWoaaacoagovoooNHGdo0Un0N » Daeyy) 1,797 1,454 1,592 1,022 835 Honduras........ noood0g00G00000 : 374 414 477 2/525 2/ 500 420 JAMANC Alevepatelokeclelevercveleleloe/sieleletelsierets 1,243 19359 S25 1,564 L260 1,999 MEXalCO erate lavetetetelelclareietereverchetelereietarctens 3,640 2,064 2,120 Ly 3,044 11,538 NCAT agUaleteiereleyeleletelslelelevelevejereycrcheteits 127 32 2 36 2/ 25 DY 25 lENENIFG 66.000 00g000000000OD0000008 1,025 S275, 837 48 2/ 50 Fass PE EU sstore)s cretatatsisvei ot ste’ s is: fatilse He 2,178 1,496 828 664 27 700 530 So WME 6 pu6b0006000000006 5046 93 98 68 40 BZ/6 110 45 St. Vincent...... a00000000 60000 8 28 20 20 2/ 20 2/ 10 2/0 Lrinidad and! Tobagoec.ccec cee: 3,228 2,672 2,149 3,010 2,435 1,986 Wene zie atysreeystereieleieclelevcievers clclclcrelis 6,410 6,800 Tif O2 7,983 9,457 9,549 UOC o cbod050g00000000000G000 8 AO, e7/4) 222,150 183,304 197,144 242,707 229,194 Asia and Oceania: : IndonesilalrereieysvereieietelerelensieveeVetevelevens 2,249 3,645 4,680 6,814 11,395 12,720 Malaysia..... 5000060000000 90000 8 eR SHAle 24,239 30,640 42,425 57,701 57,198 Papua New Guinea.......eeeeeeee: 27,129 28,084 28,792 27,842 28,223 26,342 SH le ankalereererefeleletersielerele ao0000008 1,040 600 916 902 698 807 NEMUENSTIOG GongoG0G00 aon000gD00008 1,096 554 722 944 542 e235 WeStern SamOals crereicieleleisiers cle 'sscle 508 1,197 NAS27/ 1,209 902 746 SS UO Go o50066 50060000000000008 50,282 58,649 66,959 79,829 99,305 100,035 Grand@lotailleryerercycrevelelereletelerieistevelelave : 1,021,925 879,701 1,046,082 1,146,107 ele o oi: 1,075,570 1/7 Preliminary. 2/7 Estimated. 37 Data based on U.S. imports.

Foreign Agricultural Service. Prepared or estimated on the basis of official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source material, reports of Agricultural Attaches and Foreign Service Officers, results of office research and related information.

October 1984 Horticultural and Tropical Products Division, FAS/USDA

brush fires has been hampered by a shortage of high-yielding seedlings.

Farmers have made limited new plantings, but are tending to rely on the traditional ''Tetteh Quarshie" variety, which has low yields and takes up to 7 years to come into bearing.

However, Ghana's overall outlook for the cocoa sector continues to be unfavorable and production in future years will likely continue to trend downward, or remain near the low levels of recent years. The cultivation of food crops continues to be a profitable endeavor for cocoa farmers and the declining productivity of the older trees is contributing to smaller harvests as new plantings are not of significance. In addition, the continued extreme shortage of petroleum, together with poor roads, is resulting in serious problems in moving the crop to port for export.

Nigerian production is expected to recover from the poor 1983/84 harvest as growing conditions have been excellent. Reportedly, substantial quantities of cocoa were smuggled into neighboring countries during the 1983/84 season, which contributed to the unusually low crop purchase returns by the Marketing Board. Like in Ghana, the future for cocoa is not promising. Farmers continue to migrate to urban areas in search of higher paying jobs and others are neglecting cocoa in favor of food crops. In addition to several years of unfavorable weather, shortages of spray chemicals, and increased labor costs have also contributed to the decline in cocoa production.

The new cocoa processing plant at Ile-Oluji in Ondo State began commercial operations on May 31, 1984. The new facility has an annual capacity of 30,000 tons and reportedly processed 5,000 tons of cocoa beans during the June-September period.

No announcement has been made regarding producer prices for the 1984/85 season. Producers received 1,400 naira per ton for grade 1 and 1,370 naira per ton for grade 2 cocoa for the 1983/84 harvest (0.7657 naira=U.S. $1).

Cameroon has also experienced favorable growing conditions and production is expected to recover to more normal levels. The government has increased the producer price to 410 CFAF per kilogram for grades 1 and 2 and to 250 CFAF for below grade cocoa. Prices during the 1983/84 season were 370 CFAF and 130 CFAF per kilogram, respectively. In addition to the price boost, farmers will be given an additional 30 CFAF per kilogram for grades 1 and 2 once the cocoa has been sold to overseas markets.

Brazilian production is forecast at a record 360,000 tons, 20 percent greater than the 1983/84 outturn. Weather conditions during the early stages of the Bahia main crop were exceptionally good, but turned less favorable as harvest time approached. The main crop is now expected to yield 2.8 million bags (60 kilograms each)(168,000 tons), compared with earlier expectations of 3.0 to 3.2 million bags (180,000 to 192,000 tons). The 1984 Bahia temporao crop was adversely affected by hot dry weather during flowering and by excessive moisture and cool temperatures later in the season, which resulted in poor quality and low yields.

Cocoa production in other states continues to expand and is currently estimated at 34,000 tons. New plantings are continuing in these areas and a special program is now underway near Altamira and Itaituba in the State of Para. Here, 3,000 hectares of new plantings are to be made in 1984/85 in addition to the 15,000 hectares already in place. However, the government's PROCACAU production expansion program remains suspended in view of the country's difficult financial situation.

STATE OF BAHIA COCOA BEAN PRODUCTION (60-kilogram bags)

Crop years l/50% Main crop 2/ : Temporao crop 3/ : Total VOSS AS ON. oct0 cele ue 1,480,000 1. S15, 000 2,795,000 OS S/GOS ceuck s ctacrocton: 1,664,336 1,200,000 2,864,336 VOGOLONS coer. Sees a: ~ 950,000 1,006, 865 1,956, 865 M961 AGZS< a cartels oxcekers 15470,273 557,142 202 F405 1067/6505. ee 905,612 843,979 1,749,591 NOG SGA rare isis ese eer: 905,440 1,039,268 1,944,708 NO64,/6S 4 otrsveys « roenetas 926,251 948,684 16745955 1965/66. -aeiccs ee 1,553,412 1,195,085 2,748,497 TOGO/OTR acces. eevee 1,490,974 1,297,545 2,788,519 TOG TOS Ase ce Semier ons 1,364,658 896,393 2 ZOOS 1960) 60s yee eee 871,415 1,749,132 2,620,547 1969/7085. emcee 1,528,762 1,681,571 3,210, 333 197 O/a/les xs lorcier. ate Seve SS 945,378 1,944,354 2,889. do2 IK Aly ide Pe ee ee ereaus ol ONO79 1,095,051 25005),.750 19727 SA nae canta 1,790,589 704,539 2,495,128 1O7S/TAe et ede 2,376,457 1,514,763 3,891,220 NOMI. seebe ee 1,613,452 2,630,474 4,243,926 LOTS ZO ircrcner tyes axtvore : 1,899,331 2,090,687 3,990,018 ISOM oie te 1,496,736 2,102,374 3,599,110 VO7 WAS agit mick arose 1,886,824 2,524,080 4,410,904 1078/9 eae oe et 1,805, 337 3,129,283 4,934,620 NYAS UNS, aE 2,257,499 2,382,926 4,640,425 TOSO/(Sleee eee ee . 2,658,422 2,891, 604 5,550,026 LOGI/.82. 598 cree eee 1,717,692 3,169, 840 4,887,532 1982/8545... eee ne 2,114, 366 3,084,095 5,198, 461 1083/646) omeee ae 2,792,110 1,785,693 4,577,803

1/7 October-September basis. 2/ October through April. 3/ May through September. SOURCE: CEPLAC

Brazil's Plan for the Economic Recuperation of the Cocoa Growers (CEPLAC), which has been in effect since 1957, will lose its autonomy and become known as the Superintendent of Cocoa Crop Development (SEPLAC) and be directly under the Ministry of Agriculture. The transition is to be effective December 15, 1984, and should give CEPLAC a broader financial base.

Ecuador's crop is forecast to recover somewhat from the effects of extremely poor growing conditions of the past 2 seasons. The 1983/84 crop was expected to show an increase over the "'El Nino" rain-damaged 1982/83 harvest, but unusually cool temperatures resulted in production declining further to an outturn of only 50,000 tons, the lowest since the disasterous 1972/73 crop of 39,395 tons. It will likely take several years before production will recover to the levels attained 3 to 5 years ago.

Malaysian production is forecast at a record 120,000 tons, nearly double that of 1981/82, as new areas come into bearing and young trees increase in productivity. The harvested area for the 1984/85 crop is estimated to increase to 190,000 hectares, compared with 160,000 a year earlier and 120,000 during 1982/83. Weather during the past 2 years has not been generally favorable, which has kept production below Malaysia's actual potential.

Some negative aspects of Malaysian cocoa have been the high shell content and acidity levels of the beans. The shell content for Malaysian cocoa usually ranges between 16.2-16.5 percent, compared with 12.0-12.4 percent for West African cocoa. The pH level is 4.88-5.11, compared with 5.60-5.72 for West African beans. Preferably, the pH level should not be lower than 5.40. Research is continuing in efforts to improve quality and a cocoa grading scheme was launched in August that requires all cocoa beans for the export market to be inspected and graded by the Federal Agricultural Marketing Authority. Currently this scheme is limited to Peninsular Malaysia only.

With the opening of the seventh cocoa processing plant, Malaysian annual grinding capacity has been increased to approximately 33,000 tons. Grindings during the 1983/84 season were estimated at about 17,000 tons.

MAJOR IMPORTERS

World consumption of cocoa and chocolate products has held up quite well in light of higher prices and 2 consecutive years of stock drawdowns. Manufacturers generally have tended to absorb a portion of the price increase in raw materials, thus partially shielding consumers from the full impact of higher cocoa bean prices. The economic recovery in most major consuming countries has also contributed to the strong market for confectionery products. The grinding picture in 1984 was somewhat distorted by the need to process additional amounts of cocoa to offset the smaller size of West African beans, which were reduced by the drought.

U.S. cocoa bean grindings are running ahead of a year earlier, although the decision by one major company not to report grind has made it more difficult to analyse consumption trends. Data indicate that U.S. grindings during the first 9 months of 1984 are 11 percent ahead of a year ago, despite the rising trend of many manufacturers to introduce and promote products that contain filler centers, and/or items that use smaller amounts of cocoa and chocolate.

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U.S. imports of cocoa beans during the first 8 months of 1984 were below year earlier levels as were imports of chocolate liquor and cocoa butter. However, imports of sweetened chocolate, cocoa cake/powder, and confectionery products showed good gains during this period.

U.S. IMPORTS OF COCOA BEANS AND PRODUCTS, JANUARY-AUGUST 1983 AND 1984

: Januar y-August :

Item : 1983 : 1984 : Percent Change BS S255 555 Metlei tons

Gocoa beans. hoe ch ssc: ae Wee each es 148,908: -21.4 Chocolate: Wiquor. io amarereate aetere : SI 716 21,898: | os =210 Sweetened chocolate..........: 18,899 26,0955) = +41.2 Cocoa! IDUEEE Tiere cieie-« ore crave ovcters : 34,626 Sl OSAR Fs =i Unsweetened powder/cake......: 54,987 64 N72: +17.7 Sweetened cocoa powder.......: LS 5ll6 5,882 tee +288.0 Confectioners coatings....... : 381 2,668 : +600.3 Chocolate confectionery...... : 11,300 LS USOn tes +60. 6

Total, 4.6 te he. Pee : 342,821 526.874 -4.7

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce.

Import data indicate that cocoa consumption in the U.S.S.R. is increasing. Imports of cocoa beans in 1983 were a record 162,679 tons, well above 1982 imports of 115,459 tons. Nigeria was the largest supplier of cocoa to the Soviet market, followed by Brazil, Ghana, and the Ivory Coast.

West German grindings during January-September 1984 totaled 140,851 tons, 8.6 percent greater than the corresponding 1983 period, and will likely exceed the record 1983 level of 179,462 tons. U.K. grind for the first 9 months was 18 percent above the similar 1983 period, and grindings in the Netherlands will likely be at record levels in 1984.

INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

A negotiating conference was held in Geneva, May 7-25, 1984, under the auspices of the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), to develop a new Intenational Cocoa Agreement (ICCA). However, sufficient progress on developing a new ICCA could not be made within that time frame and the conference was suspended until October. At the May meetings, the European Community (EC) proposed that, in addition to the buffer stock, the withdrawal and stocking of cocoa by producers rather than export quotas could aid in stabilizing cocoa prices. But there was insufficient time to consider this proposal.

10

Thus, the Cocoa Council at its July meeting extended the 1980 ICCA without any alteration to existing terms for a l-year period to expire on September 30, 1985. The membership of the ICCA currently comprises 20 exporting countries and 23 importing nations. The United States and the Ivory Coast, the largest consumer and producer, respectively, are not members.

This circular was prepared by Rex E.T. Dull, Horticultural and Tropical Products Division, FAS, (202) 447-2974. For further information on production estimates, contact Frank Hokana, Foreign Production Estimates Division, FAS, (202) 382-8878.

11

COCOA BEAN GRINDINGS BY SPECIFIED COUNTRIES, BY QUARTERS, 1976-84 (Metric tons)

Quarter : 1976 ©: 1977, 2) 1978) : \ 19799) -ge1950) ucts 10s os 7a ons Sioa

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Teta eee 60,873 56,473 42,048 40,572 33,478 48,358 47,729 45,883 42,416 1/ ZN celeleieisielsis te Dae LO 46,902 38,420 41,359 31,489 46,001 50,649 46,671 41,590 1/ Seb odonooss SSW! 40,914 36,923 41,401 34,877 48,761 50,068 47,825 40,904 1/ a Ns55n5500 8 SLAL!/7/ 39,463 45,269 36,970 42,368 47,059 50,680 53,231 --- Total 225,347 183,752 162,660 160,302 142,212 190,179 199,126 193,610 --- : West German Steere ORZeL 38,297 39,770 37,592 40,240 41,739 45,125 45,681 49,900 BV eaganes Ss © Sp M{37/ 325315 34,724 34,819 35,405 37,583 39,850 41,019 48,570 Sribcoqococes SUACUS 30,494 30,308 30,337 32,937 35,437 35,757 43,010 42,381 Athcecieicics) BOO, OL 41,187 38,847 39,506 42,635 44,681 46,311 49,752 --- Total....: 140,635 142,293 143,649 142,254 USN Aly 159,440 167,043 179, 462 --- : Netherlands US taejreierereiels) 4500 34,940 33,990 35,390 35,080 36,040 38,440 40,510 44,350 Brsscacceo8 Sh) 31,980 31,480 29,280 31,370 34,290 34,930 37,890 39,970 SrbGoooon08 AS eh) 26,610 26,680 29,760 29,510 32,650 33,670 35,170 34,960 Ate irereieie --: 35,090 32,590 33,760 33,030 36,660 37,980 41,330 43,370 --- Totals. :) 1275520 126,120 125,910 127,460 132,620 140,960 148,370 156,940 --- : United Kingdom Keysoscn008 = Z4natilt) 22,000 21,010 17,700 5 21,400 25,335 19,825 22,338 ZN creleleleleiciohs mal OOO 20,500 19,000 15,900 16,100 21,300 21,079 18,144 21,864 Side wreleleteicietsy Ls 900 16,400 15,900 12,300 15,500 20,200 19,594 17,434 21,081 LkatGoaooa0ces §=ZAL 40) 16,400 16,500 14,700 18,200 23,070 22,087 21,319 --- Total....: 83,000 75,300 72,410 60,600 65,300 85,970 88,095 76,722 --- : France Sticeniecicio se LOS tZ5 10,725 10,815 11,530 5 12,600 13,090 12,185 13,960 Avisooonocns Srsils 10,450 10,905 11,455 10,860 11,955 12,315 12,850 --- Srbsoq0n008 = / 7,455 7,330 8,820 9,050 9,620 9,730 10,870 --- Athyaccieieric. S650 7,685 10,940 11,365 10,690 12,860 10,410 11,725 --- Totaleeene 35,660 36,315 39,990 43,170 43,125 47,035 45,545 47,630 --- g Belgium HIS toreteteete sees 0200 4,499 4,015 4,504 5 7,755 4,951 7,789 8,883 ZN srerelelatelelohe MD ZOU, 3,795 3,528 3,552 5,238 6,983 4,032 7,654 8,044 ST cerererereisiels eto OO 4,437 SRST 3,179 5,063 6,527 3,566 U5 --- Ati veclesejeieiers OOOO 4,111 4,723 555112 6,341 7,529 5,060 10,112 --- Total....: 18,800 16,842 15,397 16,547 22,724 28,794 17,609 32,812 --- g Switzerland UGmas5aqnes Spells 4,407 3,699 3,096 5,300 4,748 4,548 5,568 5,560 Bribssgocc0s “hai si) 3,648 3,830 3,930 3,927 2,932 4,307 4,548 --- ST sessyatstere 68 Sacey 4,305 3,409 2,862 3,774 4,683 3,980 3,818 --- WVareagooso0s 4505 3,809 3,364 4,077 4,231 5,728 4,767 4,316 --- Total....: 15,972 16,169 14,302 13,965 17,232 18,091 17,602 18,250 --- : Japan Wesoccqeq08 A/pilita/ 7,024 4,175 4,837 5,851 6,460 7,600 7,504 --- Brisadoncos Welk 5,956 5,465 4,877 5,027 6,552 7,300 7,201 --- ST srerersts 5608 5 iKU/ 6,725 5,727 6,073 6,820 7,745 8,241 9,493 --- Atheccistsacies ones 6,014 5,764 6,598 7,059 8,354 8,979 9,324 --- Totaleeees 32,461 25,719 ZAR I 22,385 24,757 29,111 32,029 33,522 --- : Canada Uesen5q00a8 s2pwild 3,483 2,801 2,871 3,432 4,541 4,114 4,027 4,827 Brcadaacss | S6WN5 2,888 2E313 DAS 3,076 3,366 3,698 3,889 5,261 Setlaonosook 9 Gnikt! 2,011 2,164 1,913 2,411 3,246 2,907 3,337 --- WaNeoo500008 © Sn v¥43 3,029 3,245 3,513 3,234 5,730 4,989 4,767 --- Total....: 12,872 11,411 10,583 10,528 A2EUSS 16,883 15,708 16,020 --- : Italy — Tao =—s Ues556500008 0743 5,857 7,010 6,264 8,019 8,618 9,595 8,376 --- Bribascoacas Y-ul7 6,888 8,520 10,020 8,381 8,065 10,051 7,902 --- Srdsyereieiere 508 eek 5,287 6,338 6,898 8,139 5,818 5,977 8,137 --- Ath yectcieicieieis | 395909 8,334 8,191 10,425 9,254 12,639 13,593 11,990 --- Totaleeeey: 35,387 26,366 30,059 33,607 33,793 35,140 39,216 36,405 ---

T/ Incomplete data--1984 grind excludes reporting by 1 major processor.

SOURCE: National statistics of the respective countries.

October 1984 Horticultural and Tropical Products Division, FAS/USDA

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COCOA BEANS: IMPORTS BY SPECIFIED COUNTRIES, 1978-1983 (Metric tons)

Continent and country : 1978 g 1979 : 1980 : 1981 : 1982 : 1983 1/ North America: z Canadasewstccaacicaalcleciesase—sle=— i= 12,706 10,670 11,401 14, 860 15,980 15,923 United States.................. : ©208, 562 167, 881 150,869 248, 896 197,333 217,121 Motalessese=seee =a asea ates Ee CL 205 178,551 162,270 263, 756 213,313 233,044 Latin America: : Argentina.......---------------: 205 197 102 648 2,794 1,384 Chil eteeewaee see a eeeecieee oceans 623 892 413 2/ 500 2/ 500 2/ 500 Colombians sane ee een eceeee ec escieel: —S5 --- --- ee ~3,099 2/ 400 ElSalvad0rocsasesao=-eaceccce= is 260 295 265 2/ 75 2/ 150 2/ 100 IS Sea neccooaSsosncccassosesa5 S56 aie 105 40 2/ 10 oo Uruguay22-<ccs-sseceasecees nice g 335 520 596 423 e225 167 Totali ss s2e -ssaee sesee coe: : 1,423 1,904 1,481 1, 686 6,778 2,551 Western Europe: g (AuSELi aloes a toeeeaeete aeeeteass : 9,352 8,737 9,529 11,136 12,477 10,503 Belgtumaoacecceseeecorccacecees 16, 787 17,485 23,520 28,510 29,256 31,670 Dentarkesssseee scenes een eeseeeel 2,326 2,386 2,331 2,721 2,575 2,266 Binlandsescee ase see a aenicesies sales 1,640 1,560 1,384 1,687 995 897 BEANCC saat wicienicicinelstaisicicieielcimiaiete g 47,808 56,587 56,913 57, 633 60,211 57, 767 Germany, West.................- 2595637, 148,091 165, 848 171,796 196,412 172,558 Greece rmatecississiisieisienieieicreteieietsie’s : 5,038 5,368 5,609 4,188 5,091 4,710 Ucelandsesepecnecienciciecocrccicens 70 57 26 13 25 2/ 25 IreVand see cere cies eeiceniciccsnin= 8 6,240 5, 803 5,255 4,315 6,413 5, 802 Itallyeteeiectemieciecicteisieseiereieiatsias : 30,058 33,637 33,748 35,141 39,216 36,425 Netherlandsssa- cise ale cisicicie cleo : 150,429 143, 443 146, 796 170,084 184, 872 186, 436 Norwayasctcictesccmicisineiceicccieciesiee g 5,727 5,641 4,954 4,751 5,480 4,971 PoTtugal aeeciciceis eeieclocisine cicicisiens 211 143 6 80 2/ 75 2/ 75 Spainbemeemmteniceciecteiseieeiclelereietes : 32,501 35,890 35,274 40,096 32,182 35,796 Swed embeyemtsniesisinicteisisiieeiocincieaicle 5 5,101 4,413 4,599 2,507 3,199 2,904 SwiltzeTlandseiacisrteleieleieisieleicleie =i § 16,487 13,591 17,412 20,011 18,475 19,797 United Kingdom................- : 87,956 72,126 87, 481 94,159 112,157 65,274 Wugosilaviliatayesiie\srorlalclecicinicslecies = 11,987 14,325 14,863 15,105 11,665 6,771 Motalleemieteicteistetelelisvelaletalereieleleteisie : 589,355 569,283 615,548 663, 933 720,776 644, 647 Eastern Europe §& USSR: Bul parslasaecisteeiscisctetoeicisisieslereisiol = 4,456 6,055 4,501 6, 787 7,045 5,600 Czechoslovakia................- g 14,641 13,093 17,619 17,486 17,756 SUZ: German Democratic Rep..........: 23,734 21, 682 21,101 22,050 15,573 13,165 Fampanyammiecccissisisiecieleiscisnisictetes & 16,854 10,676 12,718 14,079 10,210 8,854 Rolandhemeieciceisisicicie cise crecieicice's : 24, 730 20,679 6, 686 6,267 9,500 16, 870 Romanitiatenemcicceceiecececneccre g 14,050 13,800 11,666 11,300 5,643 6,050 USSRemereceiistsicissieetesioeiesisieisiacie= ) eS S 1S 126,260 126, 844 121,139 115,459 162,679 IWeeASSSS556SSSucassesanGg650R AUIS E 212,245 201,135 199,108 181,186 230,530 Africa: 5 Algeria cieiacisais cists siccc.s's/senele'e : 541 73 217 2/ 200 2/ 200 2/ 200 EGY PUsteiclelatelstels ESadoscaeqqq0n6De B 1,908 76 239 ~1,670 “1,032 “1,750 WORNKEO GG ogqqacadOCDDDO5000000 & 181 174 254 209 187 2/ 200 SouthyAEricans <icierecles ees cleicieee : 4,134 2,968 2,404 3,311 5,105 2/°5,000 MUN UST am oratstealsietersteiieicisieiciosiciersiciels 300 148 200 696 360 a 900 TOtalleveratsistsistesciarcicie cicie/stele(orere 2 7,064 3,439 3,314 6,086 6,884 8,050 Asia and Oceania: : AUS Chall Vasyetsielslsiciciele alcleteisisle eelerel> : 12,460 11,411 10, 406 10, 784 8,943 6,089 Gini Wacassonousanocosde0Kdes & 14,900 13,500 13,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 Ind VaNtense Sore ween cesar : 819 445 425 738 500 2/ 600 UST AC Weeerncioiniaavcisinvesteciocicciccisice : 1,294 1,125 1,073 1,132 1,290 2/'1,200 Japanbrersaicreianteiicrcicielelere cieeisieniciere : 21, 638 23,064 22,755 31, 656 36,370 34, 891 Korea, Republic of............- 5 909 1,522 1,545 e255 897 1,554 New))Zealland ecrssistelsieisisicicieicis's icielie 4,186 3, 826 3,559 4,050 3,764 4,077 Philippinesasrciscictes science ectenee : 3,693 4,328 3,647 12,283 12,626 2/ 10,720 SINPFApOLe se lorsiseseais sleeisinies Seales 5,447 8,635 14,429 24,124 37,615 45,474 SY Blab cscecteiccicens Nervaforcisialcieteleree : 5 5 25 10 25 45 TUTEKCYeeteretateistoteiereiiocinvesiniocioisicteicne 1,279 470 852 2,525 1,980 4,136 IEAM cadacoo saad qG0GaoGdakos 3 66, 630 68,331 71,716 100,557 116,010 120, 786 Grand! total Serrereisiscielesnielestenicleleiete : 1,087,318 1,033, 753 1,055, 464 1,235,126 1,244,947 1,239, 608

T/ Preliminary. 2/ Imports estimated.

Foreign Agricultural Service. Prepared or estimated on the basis of official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source material, reports of Agricultural Attaches and Foreign Service Officers, results of office Tesearch and related information.

October 1984 Horticultural and Tropical Products Division, FAS/USDA

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