TECHNICAL REPORT THE ICE BUDGET OF THE ARCTIC PACK AND ITS APPLICATION TO ICE FORECASTING EDWARD L. CORTON Applied Oceanography Branch Division of Oceanography — - SEPTEMBER 1954 TY 3 U. S. NAVY HYDROGRAPHIC OFFICE WASHINGTON, D. C. ABSTRACT The annual cycle of the Arctic pack is considered from the viewpoint of aerial ice reconnaissance. From statistical con- siderations, figures are presented showing the amount of melting, amount of new ice formation, and the average age of the remaining polar ice under various assumptions. It is demonstrated that, in the polar seas, the ice forecaster must consider the composition of the pack as well as other factors because of the different physical characteristics of winter and polar ice. Future variations in pack composition may result from the present trend toward the warming of the Arctic, with resulting operational effects. FOREWORD In recent years the growth of Arctic operations has brought an increased concentration of effort directed at facilitating ship movements in the Arctic basin. This report summarizes the latest information about the nature of the Polar Pack, its age and volume, and provides aids in forecasting changes in the ice from the opera= tional point of view. The Hydrographic Office is engaged in developing techniques of forecasting ice conditions in all the waters where ice is presente Since this report is tentative and much of the information is based on little data, it is requested that activities receiving this pub= lication forward their comments to the Hydrographic Officee Lehaan Jo B. COCHRAN Captain, UeSe Navy Hydrographer SAL WOOL A 0 0301 0040875 3 DISTRIBUTION LIST CNO (Op-03, 03D3, 31, 316, 32, 33, 332, Ob, 05, 533, 55) BUAER (2) BUSHIPS (2) BUDOCKS (2) ONR (Code 100, 102, 410, 416, 420, 430, 464, 466) NOL (2) NEL (2) NRL (2) COMOPDEVFOR (2) COMSTS (2) CODTMB (2) AROWA SUPNAVACAD (2) NAVWARCOL (2) NAVPOSTGRADSCOL, Monterey (2) COMDT COGARD (IIP) (2) USC&GS (2) GG USAF (AFOOP) CGAWS (2) CGNEAC (2) USAF CAMBRSCHLAB (2) USWB (2) CIA (2) BEB (2) SIPRE (2) ASTIA (2) ARTRANSCORP CE (2) INTIHYDROBU, Monaco (2) ARCRSCHLAB, COL, Alaska ARCINSTNA (2) WHOI (2) SIO (2) UNIV WASH (2) TEXAS A&M (2) CBI (2) iv CONTENTS Foreword ° © e ° e e ° ° ° ° e o o 2 e @ o e eo ° e e ° o ® e E1otsh Distribution Li st e e ° o o e C) o ° C) o @ e ° ° a @ @ ° ° ) t) iv Hho”, MUGEN 58 Gk 6 6 GO Oo dO Ord G do Go ololG. o 1 B. A Theory of Polar Pack History as Applied to the Alaskan Area e e e e e ° e ® e e e e e © e ° e e o e eo oe e e e e Cope CONGMY Ole POU Ar alCal a. ie.) cure tell seceuer ela si cieieiine rel vet ie ve D. Some Characteristics of the Polar Pack . . . « «.ceec WeeoOnrecasting and thesPolari Paces imc) eellisiuettemisicuiee siale ie Cs Pes Boa fe) Bibliography e oe e ° ° ° °e ° e e ® @ ° ° ° °e e e e e @ e e °e Table all ° elie er vie oe e Ore ely ier esore e e 6 o © © @ @ @; er Tel: ie) 10 Table 2 e@ ee @ @ o e oe ee @© @ Oe GOO TOON Or oO OOF \e! 5:0, (7el RO 0) ale! ~84104 83] OF UONDII|ddy S$! puD Yad Yq INdIAy OUE yo s26png 22) ayt rey: JOisuercy @2) Dag 3uDIy “Pp ABojoioasew -f Aydosbouns2Q ‘7 Buijsp>as0_4 23} Dag “| 9-ML “OCH HN YOssOD °7 papMpy ssousnD *11 Susp 78404 83} Of UC 14D 31 | ache S$! puD 420 4 D4I4y aUL fo yaBpng ar; euy sey ID1SUBIOY 2) DAG ZId4ay “PY ABojosoaraw “f Aydo16 ouns26G Té Buljsoras04 ed} peg *} ssuoisdwnssp snouDa Jepun 92! spyod Suiuipwies ayy yo aBo abpsean aus puo ‘uoljoulsoy 62! Mau fe guncuD ‘Buigiouw yO yunowD aus fO USljOJUSSOId jOI"st4DJs BD so [ja” so ‘yond sod ays yo e242 jonuun euy yo YOoIssNosip 5 SUutDsUO>D (9-41 °O “H) *s91q03 ZT "SEL HG BE 4equissdeg ‘UO420> “7 puompng 4q ‘ONILSVD3SNOS ADI OL NOlLVOIdddv Sit GNV NOVd SILDYV AKL 40 1390N8 34D! 3HL 221449 2YdosBospAyy Aaoy *¢ “4 *suol;dwnssp snoiDA 4epun 83! anjod Bururowea, ey yo a6o shpieao 24: pup “uolppursoy 23! “mau fo suncwp ‘Buisjeouw 4° sunOWD ous fO YONDIUESGID jOduUsiyDj;s D sco [fea so ‘x20d ipjod ays jo ej34> jonuud ey 39 UOIssN3sip D SulojUu0; “(9-44 °O °H) *saiqns Z ‘dey ~S6L Jequias deg *uops07 On) Piompg Aq ‘ONILSVD3YOS3 35! OL NOIlMLVOIIddy Si GNV HOVd DILD4V SHL 40 139G0NE 3D! 3HL @2133Q Jtydo4BospAyy Annoy sn 9-41 “O°H Uops0y 77] p4sDaAPp 7404jND 6uijso> 20404 @3] OF OLD II} dD chy S4( puD 430 q DIY Ouy jo sabpng e>) eyy seysty JOlsuBsod @>| Deg Disay AB ojo1001 0; Aydos6 oun9829 Burnsorai04 @2) Deg 9-4L ‘OCH U0}ss07>) mail P4ompa s4OysNoD Suijsp> 7O10-4 GD} 04 UOI|DIIIddy $4! PUD HAO Y DIY aus jo ss6png ed) euy sojars [21448404 83) Deg J14s4y = AB oj o10a,0W Aydp5 oupe29 Buljsp>sas04 23) pes Hn *suoNdunssp snoupaA 4zepun e@3! sz0jod BSuluinwes 84s jo a6 eBosean ey) pun ‘uoljpwsoy 83! mau 4G juNOWD ‘Butyjow jo sunowo suy4 je UOWOsLEseid josiysi4D4s D sD |Jom so ‘30d 4pjod Sys yO @1245 jONUUD ey yo UGISssNosip D SU104uU07) (9-41 °O “H) "seiqoi Z “dei PS6L sequiesdeg "UO4s0 “7 psompa 4q “ONILSVDSNOS 391 OL NOlLVDINddvy sil GNY NOVd DILDYV 3HL 40 1390NG 3D! 3HL 231430 D!ydoiBoupdAyy Anon *g -hj *suot,dwnssp snolpa 4epun e2! sojod Buiuiowes oy; jo 26o e5040A0 eu; puo ‘uoljousi0y 23! aAsu jO sunowo ‘Burjew yO gunowD aus fO UOlDIUAasesd jOdII{sI404s D sD jjem so ‘430d Jojod Sys jO @}2A45 joNUUD eu j@ UOISSNISIP D SUIDjUO;D “(9-41 *O *H) "sejqos Z "det | HSL sequiesydeg ‘uoyse> °F p4vmpz Aq “ONILSVD3NOS 3D! OL NOlLVDIdddy Sil GNY NOVd DILDYY 3HL 4O 139GNG 3Di 3HL 231340 2!YydDsBoupAyy AAD sn erieies Ses ~e 9-41 “OCH uoy105 *7] pupMpy :s04;ND Suijsp> -S104 BD} Of UONsDI1|ddy S$! pud y2Dq DNI4y OYL yo yabpng e>) aut 7enu jDisuesOY B32} DAG I1bSI4y ABo|o100;0~W Aydos6 oups29 Buijso>as04 22] Des HKadd ssuolsdwnssD SNOHDA zepun 92! 400d Sutuipures ayy yo abo @6psaAD 8uy puDd ‘uoljpus0} GI! Mau jo yuNOWD “BulyjaW 4O 4UNOUID ouy so uoljosuaseid joItysigDys BD SD {JOM SO ‘yond spjod aus 4° @j2A> jonuup ey, yo UOISsNds!Ip O suipsuo*) (9-41 °O ‘H) VS6l s29quisideg ‘UOys0 “7 P4OMpPR OL NOILVDIIddv Sil *sajqos Z "dey Aq ‘ONILSYDANOS 3D) GNV NOVd DILDYV 3HL JO 1390N8 3D!) AHL CPi Te) a1ydo 46 ospApj Aaon sn 9-41 ‘O°H uo4,s07*) oF} P4ompa s404sND “8404 6ulso> @2] 8 uo ai |ddy S41 PUD FID g DNI4y OU) 4° sabpng @2] Gut reyes JONUBIOY Or] Deg IIjdIyV AB oj q10a1 aw Aydos6 oun829 Buijso3a104 23) Dag -“add *suoIsdWwASSD SNOIIDA 4sapun 82) anjod 6uiutowes ous 50 eBbp ebpsead eu; puo ‘uoljDWs0y 83! Mau fo aunowp "Buiyjow yO sunowo ey) je uol{osUssasd fOII4SIyDIS D SD |[OM SO ‘y20d apjod ay) yO 81}24> joNuuD ey) jo UOISsSN>SIP D SUIDjU07 (9-41 °O “H) *sejqoi ZT ‘-del = =PG6L sequiesdes ‘uojsoy “7 psomp3 Aq “ONILSVDSNOS 3D! OL NOWVIIIddv SLI GNY NOVd DILDIYVW 3H 4O 1390NG 3D! 3HL 231430 21YyYdosBospAyy Aadyy *g -h 9-41 “OH uols0F “7 paDMpy sound 6uijsp> -8104 S32} Of UCHEDII}ddy St! pud Y2Dq4 INIsy Bus fo sa6png ed) euy seyery JP1sUsIOY B23} DAG I1hI4y ABojosoayapy Aydoi6 oun3s326 Buijsorai04 @>} Deg *suoidwnssD sNolDA aepun 92! 4njod Burutpwes eys jo abo ebpseAD ays pud “uolypu20y 23! MaU JO JuNOWD ‘Bulsjow yO suNOWD oy jO UOlDsUasSeid jOIIgsIyD;s D sc {jam so ‘yx20d 4sDjod ayi yO 8,243 [DNuUD oY yo UOIssNosiIp D sUuIDsUC;D “(9-4 °O °H) *s2fqos Z del PS6L sequiaideg ‘uoys0 "7 psompy Aq ‘ONILSVD3NOS 351 OL NOlVOIIIddv Sil GNY ADVd DiLDYV FHL JO 1390N@ 3DdI AHL 231340 21ydo 46 ospAyy Anon >on 9-41 “OCH 404407) oF] p4Dpwap ssOYUsND -0104 Suiso> 82} 94 UOlDII|ddy S41 pud HID Y DIN BUS jo se6png er) euy soyts [D1sUes0,4 BI] Deg I1KDIy is ABojosoaow Aydos5 oun 829 Buljso2a104 ©3} Des ot) c ~- *suotydwnssp snolupA sopun e@2! spjod Buluipwes ays yo abn ebpsean oy, pud ‘uolyow4oy 83! mau yO gunowo ‘Buljjow yO sunoWD e8u3 #O UOlfOJUSSOId jOII{sSIyD4s BD SD {Jem SO ‘yond sojod @uys jo 81242 jONUUD eLY yO LOISSNISIp D SUIDJUO> (9-44 °O “H) *sejqns Z "dE, = HG SL sequiesdeg ‘u0js0 ° psompza Aq ‘SNILSVD3NOS 3D! OL NOlLVOiiddv Si! GNY NDVd DILIYW 3HL JO 139GN 35) 3H1L i 23133Q 2!4ydosBoupAyy Aaon *5 “9 Pe aa MS * ea 9-41 “OCH uo440> *7 proMpy :s0usND Suinjsp> 78404 BD} OF UONSDII|ddy S$! puD YD Yy DNUIsy oUF jo se6png a>) eyy sejits JO1sUeLOY 82} Dag DINDIy ABojo100;0W Aydos6 oune29 Buijsp2a104 @2| Des 9-4L “O°H UO}0D °7 puDMpy ssouslnD 6uijsp> 79404 82] 04 UCIIDII|ddy St! pud 420 q INI5y aU fo s2hpng er; ouy soyery [D1§UGsSOY G2} DAG DIK>DIy ABojoscazapw Aydoi6 oups2G Buijsodas04 @>| Deg “add “suotsdwnssp snoupa sepun 23) 40jOd Suiuipuies ayy jo a6p abpsaan eu puo ‘uolspw40y B21 Meu jo junowp ‘Bulyjou gO gunowD aus gO UOljDsUaesOid jOdSI4D4s BD sD [fen so ‘yood 400d ays yO 21242 joNuUD eyy yo UOISsN>sIp BD SUID{uO-) (9-41 °O *H) *sejqos Z ‘de PS 6L 2equisideg ‘uojyz0F “7 piompg 4g “ONILSVD3NOS 3D! OL NOlLVDINddvy Sil GNV ADVd DiILDYV 3HE 4O 139GNG 3D! AHL 23143Q 21YdosbospAyy Adon *s “9 *suoidwnssp snoupDa sepun 93! 4jod Buiuiowes ey; jo 2Bo eBpsean ays pun “uolpuOy @3! Meu jo juNOWD ‘BulZjow yo suNOWD aus gO UOlNDsUeSe4d jOdIIStyD;5 D sc [fem sD ‘H>IDd ipjod ays yo e(24> jonuun ey yo uolssnasip o Sulpsu0c} “(9-41 °O °H) "seiqos Z "del SéL sequiaydeg ‘uoL1s0> “> panmpy Aq “ONILSVD3YNOS 3D! OL NOILVOIIddv Sil GNVY MDVd DILDYV AHL 4O 139G0NE 3D! SHL 23194Q 2tYydosBospApyy Anon, sn 9-ML “OCH uoLs07) “7 pipap s0usND "i 6unsp> 28404 83] OF Yoni ddy S41 PUD 43D q DN Iny OUR f° 426png ed; ayy sys) jOljuesOY e>| peg Dsay v ABojo10g1 aw “E Aydos6 oun92Q °% Busosas04 a>} 085 ‘| 9-4L “OCH I! UO4s07) | P4papa :s0usND oO Sutjsp> -O10-4 @2} 04 UONDIIIddy $4! puo W2d Dion Bus jo sa6png QO] OUy Oysry *F JO'sUueso,; 83] Deg SINs4y op ee ABojos0a,aw “f Aydpsb oune29 *Z Buisp>a104 63) Deg *} “suoindwnssp snolDaA spun 83! 40jOd Sutuiowes syy yo 260 eBpsean @4i puo ‘uoljowsoy @3! Meu jo yUuNOWD ‘Bulypou jo suNOWD -ayy je Yolosvescid jorsiysijn4s D so jjam so ‘HD0d 4apjod @Yys JO @}24> jonuUD eYs 50 UCIESNISIP D SU104,U07) (9-41 °O “H) *sejqos Z ‘*dEy PS6l 4equiesdes ‘uoys05 *4 p4omp 4q “ONILSVDSNOS 391 OL NOlLVOIIddvy stl GNV NOVd DILDYV 3HL 40 1390NG 3D! SHE 231343 2!ydosBospAyy Anny Sin *suotydwnssp snolspa 4epun e@2! sojod Burutpwes ey; yo e6p eSps2ea0 eu puo ‘uoljows0, 83! mau jO sunowo ‘Buljjow yo sunowD aus gO UOljDJUaSesd jOIIISI4D4s D so {jam so ‘20d 4ojod Sys JO @)2A3 jonuUD oY yo UOoISsNIsIp D SUIG,UO> (9-41 *O *H) "s21qDs J "EL “SG sequiesdeg ‘uoysoD °° p4ompa Aq ‘ONILSVD3NOS 3Di OL NOlLVDINddy Sil ONY HOVd DILDYY 3HL 4O 139G0NG 3591 3HL 231330 2!4dosBospAyy Anon “5 “Qh