\v)AS HARVARD UNIVERSITY Ernst Mayr Library of the Museum of Comparative Zoology 1 library HOV 5, ZOO6 Journal of the 1998 100 YEARS VOLUME 89 Numbers 1 & 2 Spring/Summer, 2003 CONTENTS Articles: A Change in Editorship i Ann H. Ross, Lori E. Baker, and Anthony B. Falsetti, Sexual Dimorphism A Proxy for Environmental Sensitivity? A Multi-Temporal View 1 Luigi Toma, Decision Making in a High Speed World: An Early Warning System for Avoiding Crises 13 Adrienne Redd, Predicting Activist Behavior: An Analysis of the General Social Survey 29 History of Science: Medicine and Myth in the Literature of the Plague Years Christine Clark-Evans, The Poetic Brain: Neuroscience and Myth in the Poetry of Louise Labe and Pierre de Ronsard 65 Melissa Smith, The Playhouse as Plaguehouse in Early Modem Revenge Tragedy 77 Rebecca C. N. Totaro, Plague's Messengers: Communicating Hope and Despair In England, 1550-1750 87 ISSN 0043-0439 Issued Quarterly at Washington, DC MCZ • 'f< A . ; Y JAN 0 5 2004 riA - VARO UNIV£RblTY l^asljington ^caiiemp of Sciences Founded in 1898 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE President Michael Cohen President Elect Peg Kay Treasurer Frank R. Haig Secretary Barbara Safranak Past President Marilyn R. London Vice President, Membership Affairs Pedro Kanof Vice President, Administrative Affairs Sajjad H. Durrani Vice President, Junior Academy Affairs Paul L. Hazan Vice President, Affiliate Affairs Doug Witherspoon Editor of the Journal Vary T. Coates Board of Managers Jerry Chandler Bob Creveling Vary T. Coates Roy Lindquist John Proctor Thomas E. Smith REPRESENTATIVES FROM AFFILIATED SOCIETIES Delegates are listed on inside rear cover of each Journal ACADEMY OFFICE Washington Academy of Sciences Room 637 1 200 New York Ave., N. W. 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A Change in Editorship With this issue, a new editor assumes responsibility for the Journal My aims for the Journal are threefold: • To finish closing the gap in publishing that resulted from events beyond our control four years ago. By heroic efforts our retiring editor, Professor Thomas E. Smith, brought us within reach of that goal with Volume 88; this double issue represents Nos. 1 and 2 of Volume 89 (2003). We will strive to complete that volume in early 2004, and then to re-establish and adhere to the traditional schedule of four issues per year. • To maintain the high quality of published papers by actively working to increase the number of contributors and peer reviewers of contributed papers. • To broaden the scope of the Journal, taking advantage of our location in the Nation’s Capital, to include papers on science and engineering policy, technology assessment, history of science and technology, and closely related fields. We also welcome book reviews on appropriate topics. The third of those objectives is supported in this issue by a special history of science section consisting of several papers on Medicine and Myth in the Literature of the Plague Years. In addition, there are papers from the fields of physical anthropology, sociology, and business economics. We are confident that the upcoming Capital Science Conference in May 2004, organized by the Washington Academy of Science J and its affiliated societies, will also encourage the flow of first-rate contributed papers to the Journal. We encourage Members and Fellows of the Academy and affiliated societies and all other readers of the Journal to send in papers by email to the editor, vcoates@concentric.net. A revised version of “Instructions to Authors” can be found on our web site, www.washacadsci.org . Vary T. 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Wif. ,ilU.d^J‘.9.tJ«n^^ J •'* , f„W., ^ |v ^ 1- ••tifti cif ibtf l^y■••■>4;»Jl;um Ac '•■ih^OKK: Vv "^it) \'v.«;ithti>(;f' ^ Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences, Volume 89, Number 1 & 2, 1-11, Spring/Summer 2003 Sexual Dimorphism a Proxy for Environmental Sensitivity? A Multi-Temporal View Ann H. Ross, Ph.D.* Lori E. Baker, Ph.D. Anthony B. Falsetti, Ph.D. Abstract Sexual dimorphism in the upper limbs was investigated among skeletal samples from Archaic, Mississippian and contemporary groups. Unexpectedly, the among-group differ- ences suggest that the Archaic sample is less sexually dimorphic than later temporal groups. This is possibly the result of increased activity levels among archaic females. However, in the Mississippian and the later groups, females appear to be more canalized, while males exhibit greater variability. Historically, physical anthropologists and bioarchaeologists have been concerned with the reconstruction of past life ways and the morphological changes that occur with the transition from one economic strategy to another. Both nutrition and biomechanics have been used to explain postcranial changes observed with different subsistence strat- egies (Boyd and Boyd, 1989; Prayer, 1989; Larsen, 1984; Ruff et ah, 1984; Ruff and Larsen, 1990). Larsen (1984) and Ruff et al. (1984) suggest that a reduction in postcra- nial size is influenced by nutrition, while shape changes reflect biomechanical modifi- cations associated with behavioral differences. They contend that differential biomechanical loadings due to distinct activities performed by hunter-gatherers and agriculturalists may be used to explain the variation observed in the postcranial skel- eton (Bridges, 1985, 1989; Bridges et al., 2000; Ruff et al., 1984). Furthermore, dimin- ished within-group sexual dimorphism is expected in agricultural societies as a consequence of a reduction in repeated biomechanical loadings with the transition to I maize agriculture than in pre-agricultural populations. Ruff (1987) attributes the reduc- tion of sexual dimorphism in the cross-sectional area of the femur from pre-agricultural I ' * Dr. Ross is in the Department of Sociology and Anthropology , North Carolina State University, Raleigh, , North Carolina. Dr. Baker is in the Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Baylor University, Waco, { Texas. Dr. Falsetti is with the C.A. Pound Human Identification Laboratory, The University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 2 ANN H. ROSS, LORI E. BAKER, ANTHONY B. FALSETTI to agricultural populations to a reduction of biomechanical loading of male femora as a result of decreased mobility and increased sedentism. Greater environmental sensitivity! for males is another factor used to explain increased levels of within-group sexual dimorphism. Namely, females are thought to be more buffered against environmental, stresses than males due to their need to support pregnancy and lactation (Stini, 1975, 1982). Reduced arm muscle sexual dimorphism has been observed by many in non- European groups (Black and coworkers, 1977; Bogin and McVean, 1981a,b). In their study of Kayapo Indians from Brazil, Black and colleagues (1977) conclude that reduced arm sexual dimorphism is not due to greater nutritional stress experienced by i Kayapo males, but rather to increased muscular development of Kayapo females as a result of strenuous physical labor. The objectives of this investigation are twofold: 1) to explore the variation of sexual dimorphism in the forearm; and 2) to determine the degree of sexual dimorphism in the ulna and radius among groups of different temporal periods. Middle to Late Archaic j (5000-500 BC), Mississippian (900-1450 AD), and contemporary populations, and if it can be attributed to either biomechanical loading or environmental sensitivity (e.g. 1 nutrition, disease) models. St^ (U Si; loi Ti di: to gf ab thi se fe: re sc M Materials and Methods Samples Pt The Archaic sample totals N=49 (females n=32; males n=17), and includes the Evai (6BN12), Kays Landing (15HY13), and Big Sandy (25HY18) sites from East Tennes- see. The Mississippian sample consists of N=36 (females n=24; males n=12) and is comprised of the Mouse Creek (3MN3, 4MN3), and Toqua (40MR6) sites from West Tennessee. The archaeological material is curated at the McClung Museum at the Uni- versity of Tennessee, Knoxville. The contemporary samples include N=142 American whites (females n=46; males n=96) and American blacks consisting of N=128 (females ^ f/l n=50; males n=78), which were obtained from the Eorensic Databank housed at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. ' M Measurements Standard osteological measurements were collected for both ulnae and radii as de- ^ scribed in Moore-Jansen et al. (1994). The left element was used when available, how- C. ever, when the left was not present the right was substituted. The measurements included or are the dorso-volar and transverse diameters of the ulna and sagittal and transverse oc diameters of the radius. Ulnae and radii lengths were collected but were not included in gr the analysis because diaphyseal lengths are believed to be more responsive to environ- ^ mental variations (Jantz and Owsley, 1984). ^ 1 SEXUAL DIMORPHISM A PROXY FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SENSITIVITY? 3 Statistics Size and shape variables are computed according to Mosimann and colleagues (Mosimann and James 1979; Darroch and Mosimann 1985) using raw measurements. Size is defined as the geometric mean of all variables. The size variable for the four long bone measures is calculated as follows: SIZE=(n=,X.)i^" The new shape variables are simple ratios of the geometric mean, and are thus dimensionless. A one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) was performed on the SIZE variable to test the null hypothesis that the mean size is not significantly different among the groups. A canonical discriminant analysis was then performed on the new shape vari- ables to extract canonical variates, which are linear combinations of predictor variables that summarize between-population variation. The differences are graphically repre- sented on canonical axes. The canonical axes are selected to maximize population dif- ferences. In addition, a Pearson’s correlation coefficient was calculated to test the relationship between the original size and shape variables and their canonical variate ij scores. The degree of differentiation among the groups was measured using a Mahalanobis or generalized distance, which is a function of the group means and the pooled variances and covariances (Afifi and Clark, 1996). is used to test whether group centroids are significantly different. The statistical tests were conducted using the SAS PC package (2000). Results Descriptive summary statistics for both raw and shape variables for each population are presented in Table 1 . The ANOVA for size yielded significant differences among the groups (R-square 0.2572; Pr > E 0.0001). The D“ values are presented in Table 2. There are signifi- cant differences between centroid means among the groups. Surprisingly, Archaic females and males are not significantly different from each other, whereas American white males are the furthest removed. However, American white females, American black females and Mississippian females are not significantly different from each other. Three significant canonical axes were extracted for the transformed shape variables and are presented in Table 3, while the total canonical structure for CANl, CAN2, and CAN3 are reported in Table 4. The first canonical axis accounts for approximately seventy- one percent of the among-group variation, while approximately seventeen percent is ac- counted for on CAN2, and eight percent on CAN3. The first canonical axis separates the groups with respect to transverse radial shape and dorso- volar shape, whereas the second axis isolates the groups on sagittal and transverse radial shape (Eigure 1). Interestingly, Archaic females have relatively more robust interosseous crest development than American 4 ANN H. ROSS, LORI E. BAKER, ANTHONY B. FALSETTI White females, American Black females, and Mississippian females. The reverse is true for transverse radial diameters. Unexpectedly, the Archaic populations are the least sexually dimorphic group followed by American Blacks, American Whites, and Mississippians. The variation observed among the groups along CAN3 is consistent with anatomical variations observed along CAN 1 (i.e. groups that have robust ulnar interosseous crest development will have small transverse ulnar development (see Figure 2). The Pearson’s correlation coefficients show that the variation observed among the females is correlated to differences in shape rather than size. Males, conversely, demonstrate both shape and size related varia- tion for CANl and CAN3 (Table 5). -h6- Missippian males Archaic females o White males A White females A ot) Q Missippian females Large ulnar interosseous crest small radial transverse diameter at midshaft Small ulnar interosseous crest large radial transverse diameter at midshaft Figure 1. Class Means on Canonical Variates for CANl and CAN2. White males ctyE^ma -0.5 Mississippian males Mississippian females o Archaic females -4.5- Figure 2. Class Means on Canonical Variates for CANl and CAN3. SEXUAL DIMORPHISM A PROXY FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SENSITIVITY? 5 Interpretation and Conclusions The results of this study show that forearm variation in females is solely related to shape differences rather than size differences. However, the variation observed in males across all time periods is related to both size and shape. Ulnar and radial shape are similar in black, white, and Mississippian females. Thus, there is an increase in size- related sexual dimorphism over time and across subsistence strategies. Shape-related sexual dimorphism shows a different trend entirely, it increases between the Archaic and Mississippian time periods and shows a decrease between Mississippian and more contemporary groups. The Mississippian sample exhibits the most shape-related sexual dimorphism. This variation in shape-related sexual dimorphism suggests that Missis- sippian males and females are performing different tasks possibly due to sexual divi- sion of labor observed with the transition to maize agriculture. Levels of sexual dimorphism have been used to ascertain environmental stress. Be- cause male growth is more influenced by environmental stress than female growth, some researchers have reasoned that differences between males and females should be less in stressed or marginalized environments (Greulich, 1951; Greulich et al., 1953; Stini, 1972, 1975; Tanner, 1962; Tobia, 1972). The reduction of environmental stress associated with contemporary societies is a plausible explanation for the high degree of size-related sexual dimorphism observed in the contemporary sample when compared to earlier groups. How- ever, this hypothesis does not adequately explain the variation of shape-related sexual dimorphism observed in the Mississippian group, nor does it adequately explain the low level of overall sexual dimorphism observed in the Archaic sample. Although, it could explain why Mississippian and contemporary females stay roughly the same size and shape through time while Mississippian and contemporary males change. The interosseous crests of the ulna and radius exhibit the greatest area of develop- ment in Archaic males and females, and in Mississippian males. The interosseous mem- brane connects the radius and ulna and provides attachments for the deep forearm muscles (Grays, 1995). The forearm muscles that attach to the interosseous membrane at the area of greatest development on the radius are: flexor pollicis longus, pronator teres, extensor pollicis brevis; and on the ulna: flexor digitorum profundus, abductor pollicis longus, extensor pollicis longus, and extensor indicis. These muscles aid in supination and pronation of the forearm, and extension, flexion, and abduction of the fingers. This area of greatest development observed in Archaic males and females and in Mississip- pian males is probably a result of continuous and prolonged use by performing activi- ties that require pronation and supination of the forearm. Greater forearm muscle development due to physical labor rather than environmental stress could account for the low level of sexual dimorphism observed in the Archaic sample. Archaic females appear to be engaging in physical activities that increase forearm robusticity (i.e., interosseous crest development). Furthermore, Mississippian males are engaging in physical activities that produce greater development of the forearm than Mississippian fe- males. The results of this study concur with Stinson (1985), that activity is a significant 1 6 ANN H. ROSS, LORI E. BAKER, ANTHONY B. FALSETTI factor and a plausible explanation for the reduction of shape-related sexual dimorphism. . Thus, caution should be exercised when interpreting levels of sexual dimorphism solely as ; l a result of environmental sensitivity. References Bogin B., MacVean R.B. (1981a). Nutritional and Biological Determinants of Body Fat Patterning in Urban \ Guatemalan Children. Human Biol, 53, 259-268. Bogin B., MacVean R.B. (1981b). Body Composition and Nutritional Status in Urban Guatemalan Children of High and Low Socioeconomic Status. Amer J. Phys. AnthropoL, 55, 341-352. i Boyd D.C., Boyd C.C. ( 1 989). A Comparison of Tennessee Archaic and Mississippian Maximum Femoral Lengths I and Midshaft Diameters: Subsistence Change and Poscranial Variability. SE Archaeol, 5,107-1 16. Black F.L., Hierholzer W.J., Black D.P., Lamm S.H., Lucas L. (1977). Nutritional Status of Brazilian Kayapo L Indians. Human Biol, 49,139-153. Bridges P.S.. (1991). Skeletal Evidence of Changes in Subsistence Activities Between the Archaic and Mississippian Time Periods in Northwestern Alabama. In., M.L. Powell, PS. Bridges, A.M. Wagner Mires (Eds.), What Mean These Bones? Studies in Southeastern Bioarchaeologyipp. 89-101). Tuscaloosa: The University of Alabama Press. Bridges PS. (1989). Changes in Activities with the Shift to Agriculture in the Southeastern United States. Curr. Anthrop., 30,385-394. Bridges P.S., Blitz J.H., Solano M.C. (2000) Changes in long bone diaphyseal strength with horticultural intensi- fication in west-central Illinois. Amer. J. Phys. AnthropoL, 1 12,217-238. Frayer D.W. 1989. Postcranial Metric Changes in the European Upper Paleolithic and Mesolithic. Amer. J. Phys. ' AnthropoL, 75,223-224. Gray H. (1995). Gray’s Anatomy: The Anatomical Basis of Medicine and Surgery 38*^ Ed. Williams PL, Bannis- ■ ter LH et al. (Eds.). Edinburgh: Churchill Livingstone. Greulich W.W. (1951). The Growth and Developmental Status of Guamanian School Children in 1947. Amer. J. Phys. AnthropoL, 9,55-70. Greulich W.W., Crimson C.S., Turner M.L. (1953).The Physical Growth and Development of Children Who ' Survived the Atomic Bombing of Hiroshima or Nagasaki. J. Pediat., 43, 121-145. Jantz R.L., Owsley D.W. (1984). Long Bone Growth Variation among Arikara Skeletal Populations. Amer. J. • Phys. AnthropoL, 63,13-20. i Larsen C.S. (1984). Health and Disease in Prehistoric Georgia: The Transition of Agriculture. In M.N. Cohen, \ G.J. Armelagos (Eds.), Paleopathology at the Origins of Agriculture (pp 367-392). Orlando: Academic Press. J Moore-Jansen P.M., Ousley S.D., Jantz R.L. (1994). Data Collection Procedures for Eorensic Skeletal Material. | Report Investigation no. 48. Knoxville: The University of Tennessee, Department of Anthropology. !; Ruff C.B., Larsen C.S., Hayes W.C. (1984). Structural Changes in the Femur With the Transition to Agriculture | on the Georgia Coast. Amer. J Phys. AnthropoL, 64, 125-136. Ruff C.B. (1987). Sexual Dimorphism in Human Lower Limb Bone Structure: Relationship to Subsistence Strat- egy and Sexual Division of Labor. J. Hum. EvoL, 76,391-416. SAS (2000) System for Windows Version 8. Computer Program. Cary: North Carolina. Stini W.A. (1972). Reduced Sexual Dimorphism in Upper Arm Muscle Circumference Associated with Protein- deficient Diet in a South American Population. Amer. J. Phys. AnthropoL, 36, 341-352. Stini W.A. (1982). Sexual Dimorphism and Nutrient Reserves. In R.L. Hall (Ed.), Sexual Dimorphism in Homo sapiens (pp 391-419). New York: Praeger. Stini W.A. (1985). Adaptive Strategies of Human Populations Under Nutrional Stress. In E.S. Watts, RE. Johnston, G.W. Lasker (Eds.), Biosocial Interrelations in Population Adaptation (pp 19-41). Mouton: The Hague. Stinson S. (1985). Sex Differences in Environmental Sensitivity During Growth and Development. Yb. Phys. Anthrop., 25,123-147. Tanner J.M. (1962). Growth at Adolescence, 2"'^ Ed. Oxford: Blackwell. Tobias P.V. (1972). Growth and Stature in South African Populations. In D.J.M. Vorster (Ed.), Human Biology of Environmental Change (pp 96-104). London: International Biological Program. SEXUAL DIMORPHISM A PROXY FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SENSITIVITY? 7 Appendix Table 1. Descriptive summary statistics. Archaic females Variable N Mean Std Dev Min Max Saggital rad. 33 9.4545 0.9712 8 12 Transv.rad. 33 12.3333 1.6329 9 17 Dorso-volar ul. 36 11.3056 0.9508 9 13 Transverse ul. 36 13.2222 1.6581 11 18 Size 32 11.4940 0.9838 9.72 13.8188 Sagshape rad. 32 0.8251 0.0680 0.7073 1.0241 Tranvshape rad. 32 1.0728 0.0956 0.8651 1.2853 Dorso-volar shape 32 0.9857 0.0564 0.8677 1.1067 Tranvshape ul. 32 1.1584 0.0755 1.0241 1.4157 Archaic males Variable N Mean Std Dev Min Max Saggital rad. 18 11.1666 1.2948 9 15 Transv.rad. 18 13.3333 1.6088 11 17 Dorso-volar ul. 20 12.9000 1.3727 11 15 Transverse ul. 20 14.3500 1.3089 11 17 Size 17 12.8298 0.8329 11.6233 14.3221 Sagshape rad. 17 0.8733 0.1098 0.7680 1.1842 Tranvshape rad. 17 1.0389 0.0906 0.9372 1.2302 Dorso-volar shape 17 1.0121 0.0669 0.8684 1.0994 Tranvshape ul. 17 1.1095 0.0784 0.9385 1.2496 American black females Variable N Mean Std Dev Min Max Saggital rad. 50 10.96 1.0294 9 14 Transv.rad. 50 14.18 1.4241 12 17 Dorso-volar ul. 50 11.48 1.2974 10 16 Transverse ul. 50 15.22 1.6073 11 18 Size 50 12.8025 0.9110 10.4401 15.1309 Sagshape rad. 50 0.8560 0.0497 0.7400 1.0086 Tranvshape rad. 50 1.1079 0.0794 0.8645 1.2621 Dorso-volar shape 50 0.8966 0.0756 0.7845 1.2103 Tranvshape ul. 50 1.1886 0.0937 0.8875 1.3978 8 ANN H. ROSS, LORI E. BAKER, ANTHONY B. FALSETTI Table 1 continued. American black males Variable N Mean Std Dev Min Max Saggital rad. 78 13.6282 1.2285 10 17 Transv.rad. 78 16.4744 1.9852 11 20 Dorso- volar ul. 78 15.1282 1.7754 11 21 Transverse ul. 78 18.0897 2.3587 12 22 Size 78 15.6819 1.1772 12.9449 18.6492 Sagshape rad. 78 0.8705 0.0679 0.7457 1.0989 Tranvshape rad. 78 1.0493 0.0884 0.8143 1.2750 Dorso- volar shape 78 0.9661 0.1041 0.8230 1.3711 Tranvshape ul. 78 1.1517 0.1066 0.8242 1.3153 Mississippian females Variable N Mean Std Dev Min Max Saggital rad. 25 10.24 0.9256 9 12 Transv.rad. 25 13.52 1.5843 11 16 Dorso-volar ul. 24 11.125 1.0759 9 13 Transverse ul. 24 14.8333 1.8572 11 19 Size 24 12.2891 0.7871 11.0390 14.3524 Sagshape rad. 24 0.8387 0.0696 0.7097 1.0050 Tranvshape rad. 24 1.1086 0.1016 0.9330 1.2987 Dorso-volar shape 24 0.9052 0.0658 0.7305 1.0252 Tranvshape ul. 24 1.2058 0.1185 0.9212 1.4773 Mississippian males Variable N Mean Std Dev Min Max Saggital rad. 12 11.5833 1.0836 9 13 Transv.rad. 12 14.5833 1.3114 13 17 Dorso-volar ul. 15 14.20 1.3732 11 16 Transverse ul. 15 16 1.5584 13 18 Size 12 13.9868 1.0213 11.3731 15.3942 Sagshape rad. 12 0.8275 0.0371 0.7715 0.8848 Tranvshape rad. 12 1.0443 0.0802 0.9508 1.1923 Dorso-volar shape 12 1.0250 0.0701 0.9118 1.1702 Tranvshape ul. 12 1.1369 0.0607 1.0240 1.2103 SEXUAL DIMORPHISM A PROXY FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SENSITIVITY? 9 Table 1 continued. American white females Variable N Mean Std Dev Min Max Saggital rad. 46 10.4348 1.2230 9 15 Transv.rad. 46 14.5870 1.7836 10 18 Dorso- volar ul. 46 11.3261 1.7263 9 15 Transverse ul. 46 14.7826 2.0211 9 20 Size 46 12.5706 1.0834 11.0889 16.0464 Sagshape rad. 46 0.8304 0.0704 0.7471 1.1959 Tranvshape rad. 46 1.1618 0.1201 0.7973 1.4942 Dorso- volar shape 46 0.9004 0.1108 0.7195 1.2793 Tranvshape ul. 46 1.1753 0.1191 0.9676 1.3357 American white males Variable N Mean Std Dev Min Max Saggital rad. 96 12.9375 0.9713 10 15 Transv.rad. 96 17.0417 1.1782 11 21 Dorso-volar ul. 96 14.6458 1.7887 11 21 Transverse ul. 96 17.3437 2.3878 12 23 Size 96 15.3271 1.1211 12.5428 17.6488 Sagshape rad. 96 0.8451 0.0438 0.7472 0.9947 Tranvshape rad. 96 1.1110 0.0759 0.8417 1.2967 Dorso-volar shape 96 0.9572 0.1129 0.8027 1.3008 Tranvshape ul. 96 1.1294 0.1106 0.8235 1.3698 10 ANN H. ROSS, LORI E. BAKER, ANTHONY B. FALSETTI Table 2. Mahalanobis matrix. From group Archaic Archaic Am. Black Am. Black Miss. Miss. Am. Am. White White Archaic 0 Archaic 0.6876* 0 Am. Black 1.3548§ 1.8464« 0 Am. Black 0.5965§ 0.3053 0.7385« 0 Miss. 1.3131 2.2996« 0.2168 1.0633« 0 Miss. 0.2785 0.6218 2.6732* 1.0556§ 2.7408« 0 Am. White 2.6541* 3.9415* 0.9673« 2.5399* 0.5587 4.5503* 0 Am. White 0.5106§ 0.8498§ 0.5864« 0.5191« 0.8268§ 1.2500§ 1.4513* 0 P- value < *0.0001, «0.001, §0.05 Table 3. Significant canonical axes. Canonical Eigenvalue Proportion Likelihood Approx. F Num. DF Pr > F Ratio 0.3303 0.7068 0.6580 5.46 28 <.0001 0.0801 0.1715 0.8754 2.61 18 0.0003 0.0377 0.0806 0.9456 1.96 10 0.0346 1 2 3 SEXUAL DIMORPHISM A PROXY FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SENSITIVITY? 1 1 Table 4. Total canonical structure. Variable CANl CAN2 CAN3 Saggital rad. -0.2124 -0.7379 0.5336 Transverse rad. 0.7187 0.5057 0.3485 Dorso- volar ul. -0.6799 0.4279 0.0061 Transverse ul. 0.3175 0.3892 -0.7541 Table 5. Pearson Correlation Coefficients. Females Sagshape rad Tranv shape rad Dorso-volar shape Tranvshape ul. Size CANl -0.2214 0.7539 -0.6605 0.1960 0.1312 (0.0061) (<.0001) (<.0001) (0.0155) (0.1071) CAN2 -0.7674 0.5719 0.4078 -0.3854 -0.07367 (<.0001) (<.0001) (<.0001) (<.0001) (0.3670) CAN3 0.5364 0.3799 -0.0250 -0.8094 -0.0651 Males (<.0001) (<.0001) (0.7598) (<.0001) (0.4258) CANl -0.1393 0.6508 -0.6971 0.3631 0.2244 (0.0475) (<.0001) (<.0001) (<.0001) (0.0013) CAN2 -0.7288 0.4713 0.4639 -0.4039 0.0166 (<.0001) (<.0001) (<.0001) (<.0001) (0.8137) CAN3 0.5194 0.3829 -0.0207 -0.7074 -0.1426 (<.0001) (<.0001) (0.7696) (<.0001) (0.0424) (P-value). »r 12 V/ w . :otu3 jmiK tornoft^ Itirff ^ 3ld«» > - - '' i ‘* > 4/1 It! r.o- 0 ^ ! ii»} ^rst- 0 .iu wAof-^mbG {) • :> ^ ,Uj t»/i5 /i4flBi r \T\ ♦» ,* \j * . i ' ‘' ]f i "r I.’- , ,?in‘ji:4(i^‘ :»f ) n »i :’^^ />>tO f A.ii^'> 1 >i*i\ »a :jqedr/ntif i Jo#-t|rioil 5q5iiJ^ «^*“I bfci r^qz-.l^jcc 9^4$am ^ 4 ‘ dqBfl^ btti ; - iS1?5r 't > ’ 1 :to 7 ' l’fin.‘C}?j j?.?MK7 1 ' (1(VW» (»»»>>• •,►■*, - I >rrfji^’ ^?K^n• avot.o ■■'ifr.fl tT<>i‘.0- iVlKy • i»';'ri.o- wtet)' !-wo ' 'Va: Ik ij . i;MC iS , . uai ll?^)-. , fK)00S) fSU It- >' Mil t ’"t^).0;l .'xiifih , $fotiv , i F/itsO OTt.o . ’i.-ico- ';vAn ■ ■■us,p) tiooo>i- ri(y».» itfx)(>,>i> li; nofK).>. '&y>- ■* Z>ZhJi„ \im>i ' •■•Hop<-»i " ^ um>) _ — ^ ;;;;;;;; -• — ... r- - ■ >■ -■■•(tjakrt. t'-.M r-.t><»/0t. '0 »>>).« . ■ -• Ttt»lf ’Vii |o(c , \ '., .'..ii • X.'-.' P.it'‘»^irt|>r i '. ilbt:- '( ..lil L':iM f>.OiiOi - ■ afi3T:.,': !■ •' - ^!^0 ft.fl!-''" ki \.9i> .2^; . 14 ■' -"^C- j6 tU' V Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences, Volume 89, Number 1 & 2, 13-27, Spring/Summer 2003 Decision Making in a High Speed World: An Early Warning System for Avoiding Crises Luigi Toma, Ph.D. * Department of Economics, American University, Washington, DC 20016, USA Abstract Crisis management comes more naturally than managing to avoid crises because change can be so disruptive as to tear organizations apart. In this paper we suggest that: 1 . humankind has entered an era in which events unfold with unparalleled speed 2. the speed of evolution will accelerate further. In today’s complex societal systems, the time of warning and decision is getting shorter and unless we modify our models of thinking by using new cognitive tools, such as ‘images of the future,’ any kind of algorithm applied to the present informational space is bound to fail when used to forecast change. Introduction: Enron’s Collapse or Chaos Theory Revisited Economists and historians have been taking change and disruptions seriously for decades. Joseph Schumpeter coined the term ‘creative destruction’ to explain how advances in technology, often small ones, can overturn the powers of estab- lished companies. The ontological view has been presented by Karl Popper’s argu- ment that logically present knowledge cannot know the contents of radically new knowledge. At a societal level, the first rigorous acknowledgment of the increasing speed of human existence has been put forward in a landmark paper published by Mircea Eliade, probably the world’s most renowned scholar of comparative reli- gions [1]. Writers such as Milan Kundera paid great attention to ‘societal speed,’ and have used very imaginative artistic ways to portray it: “the degree of speed is directly proportionate to the intensity of forgetting” [2]. More and more eminent scholars have embarked on the journey to tame the speed of evolution, especially after the advent of catastrophe theory, and later, chaos theory. Chaos can be important * Luigi Toma holds an MA in Cybernetics, an MA in Development Banking and a PhD in International Econom- ics. He has been a Visiting Scholar at MIT and has also worked at the World Bank in Washington, DC. His endeavor is to bridge economic science with the modem approaches represented by integrative fields such as chaos theory, system theory and catastrophe theory. He believes that efficiency in science comes now from interdisciplinarity and from openness to the new trends related to the emergence of the information and com- putation paradigms. 14 LUIGI TOMA because its presence means that long-term predictions are worthless and futile [3]. Scholars have warned that coping with change will become “the most severe test i that history has placed on human psychology” [4]. i Ten years ago we stated that “it is dangerous to speed up information in 1 1 systems that hold great potential of surprise, because not much is known about ! i their deeper, fundamental pattern” [5]. History has quickly validated the above ! proposition. Witness Enron’s collapse. Enron was not just an energy company. It ; exhibited all the characteristics of chaos systems, as outlined with analytical acu- 1 men and intellectual integrity by Williams Garnett [3]. It was also the icon of man- 1 agement writers who emphasize radicalism over incremental change and creativity over control. i The books of various business gurus have singled out Enron as a paragon of good i management, for Leading the Revolution [6], practicing Creative Destruction [7], i devising Strategy as Structured Chaos [8], and winning the War for Talent [9]. McKinsey, ( the consulting firm that employs both Mr. Eoster and Mr. Michaels and counts Jeff t Skilling, the former Enron chief executive, among its alumni, has a practice dedicated r to the ‘creative destruction’ thesis. s But since Enron has filed for bankruptcy, the second largest US company ever to do I so, three questions arise, firstly, should these consultants and academics have been j more critical in their thinking about the Houston-based energy trader? Secondly, does Enron’s fall confirm the late MIT economics Professor and Nobel Prize Laureate franco ^ Modigliani’s view that ‘perception is everything’? And thirdly, can any company base its long-term strategy, as Enron did, on the premise of radical innovation? Professor Hamel’s best-selling book argued that to sue- ceed, businesses need to do more than deliver incremental improvements to products or ^ processes. Enron was an example of a ‘grey-haired revolutionary’: an established com- pany that innovated with such success that it transformed its industry. ; The company’s single-handed creation of a competitive market in natural gas trad-i ^ ing — and its later moves into power plant development, broadband telecommunica-l tions and the online trading of power — were painted as an exemplary blend ofi entrepreneurial spirit backed by financial muscle. Professor Hamel wrote: “As much as any company in the world, Enron has institutionalized a capacity for perpetual innova- tion ... (it is) an organization where thousands of people see themselves as potential revolutionaries” [6]. The snag is that business revolutions are very difficult to control, failure of control was at the heart of Enron’s sudden fall from grace. The company’s senior officers ere- ated a capital structure that exposed it to risks that were systematically hidden from shareholders and, finally, led to criminal charges against the perpetrators of such ficti- tious off-balance sheet entities. DECISION MAKING IN A HIGH SPEED WORLD 15 Even before the collapse of Enron, the ‘revolutionize or die’ school of manage- ment thinking was facing growing opposition. In July 2000, Eric Abrahamson, a management professor at Columbia Business School in New York, argued that com- panies should aim for ‘dynamic stability’ rather than constant change [10]. In Feb- ruary 2001, Peter Brabeck, chief executive of Nestle, went further: “All this talk about reinvention in business reminds me of 1968, when a whole generation thought you couldn’t have social change without revolution. I hope we are past that now because it doesn’t make sense. Not for society, not for business. Evolution can happen if you believe in it” [11]. Jim Collins, a management writer and former Stanford professor, has emerged as the exemplary figure for this gradualist school of thought. The emphasis on incremental change is not just a reaction to the work of Hamel, Foster et al. It is also based on hard data. In Good to Great, Collins examines the management meth- ods used by established companies that went on to deliver stellar long-term returns to shareholders. According to Collins, “revolutionary results do not come through revolutionary processes.” “Revolution can look as if it is delivering results in the short term — like steroids for an athlete — but there is a long-term danger to health. If you want to build a meaningful track record over 15 years or more, the last thing you want is a business revolution.” [12] Societal Speed, Algorithms and Incomplete Information Given that the speed of evolution is accelerating in an unprecedented manner, ‘early warning systems’ have become more and more important. Witness the 2001 U.S. reces- sion which has taken policy makers by surprise: the same technological forces that have led to a resurgence in the growth rate of labor productivity, or output per hour, have also made the economy more prone to abrupt downturns. Because businesses can now monitor I demand for their products minute by minute, they can adjust their own output almost i instantaneously by reducing inventories of unsold goods and unused supplies. And because they can see better what is happening across the economy, different ! businesses and industries increasingly tend to respond in concert to the same data. The result is not only a faster adjustment, but one that is potentially more synchronized, ; compressing changes into an even shorter time frame. This very rapidity with which the current adjustment is proceeding raises another concern, of a different nature. While technology has quickened production adjustments, human nature remains unaltered [13]. “We respond to a heightened pace of change and its associated uncer- ; tainty in the same way we always have. We withdraw from action, postpone decisions \ and generally hunker down until a renewed, more comprehensible basis for acting ! emerges.” (Esther Dyson has called this phenomenon ‘the retreat to the present’.) When j we also factor in the fact that the key variable within human decision making remains 16 LUIGI TOMA the inelastic attention span of the decision maker [14], we realize why, in present com- plex societal systems, knowing the proper ‘time of warning and decision’ is critical in avoiding crises, i.e., sudden, undesirable and irreversible events of great magnitude. There still are policy makers who think that if they had an appropriate database, the measuring and modeling of a fast-paced economy would be easier. [15] In other words, they believe that because product cycles are truncated by rapid innovation, the ‘real time’ measurement of detailed micro-level products’ characteristics would solve the problem. They like to provide examples supporting this view. One of these examples is the prolonged statistical neglect of the cell phone. Cell phones were a staple in almost three million US households as early as 1992. But cell phones were not reflected in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) until 1998, when U.S. citizens bought almost 35.5 million of them. That was largely because the market-bas- ket was still locked into an outdated formula that had counted telephone service in the costs of housing — and cell phones were used outside the home. [16] We consider that a more updated database of goods and services will not deal with the root of the problem. Our cognitive concepts are the key, not better databases. Reading of reality goes beyond databases. If the ongoing and emerging processes we are witnessing today are bringing about the most radical rupture in continuity, [17] the challenge is a new paradigm in decision making, a paradigm that might start by acknowledging that we gather data from an informational environment that seems familiar but basically is incomplete. And, as we mentioned elsewhere, [5] “any kind of algorithm applied to incomplete information is bound to fail when used to forecast socio-economic change.” Professor Linstone reached a similar conclusion when he observed that “knowledge of the real world cannot be satisfactorily attained by means of the world of mathematics as it exists today.'' [18] S] M of Sli es C( ai ar ai m re f el in e) re ol “t if! at Why Do We Need Early Warning Indicators? th id The need for early warning indicators comes both from the fact that the past is not a good predictor of the future and also from the fact that the speed of technical and societal change tends to invalidate or drive into obsolescence the most elaborate fore- casts. Robert Barbera, chief economist at Hoenig & Company, an investment firm in Port Chester, New York, argues that “many forecasters forecast the recent past.” Bill Joy, former chief scientist at Sun Microsystems, estimates that “as much as 20 per cent of the company’s technical knowledge becomes obsolete each year.” That’s why, in the recent years, the process of devising and implementing ‘early warning indicators’ has intensified. Witness the recent work on early warning systems for currency crises [19] and for financial system crises. [20] No less than the IMF Man- aging Director, Horst Kohler, recently pointed out that “we need to have a process of early warning based on sound professional advice.” [21] th fo til fo CO ti( of m re DECISION MAKING IN A HIGH SPEED WORLD 17 Most importantly, probably, was the ingenuity to develop an Early Warning System in the field of accounting and financial statements analysis by Charles Mulford and Eugene Cominskey. [22] The authors examine the results of a survey of bankers and develop a remarkable system for rating earnings’ upside and down- side risk potential. They call it the ‘Earnings Reversal Score,’ which concisely cat- egorizes cautionary signals, such as profitability, liquidity, and management-related early warnings, enabling accountants to recognize problems and suggest timely corrective measures to managers. ‘Earnings shortfalls’ are material differences between a corporation’s expected and actual earnings. They spell big troubles — Enron is a case in point — for lenders and equity investors, to say nothing of the company in question. The failure to anticipate an ‘earnings surprise’ can threaten a lender’s prospects for loan repay- ment, cause shareholders to absorb heavy losses and, ultimately, may lead to the respective company’s bankruptcy. The early warning system’s approach has gained tremendous ground in the last few years, when the speed with which events started to unfold made other forecasting mod- els less reliable. The reasons are threefold. Eirstly, in most econometric models crucial input factors are omitted and so occasionally outputs miss by a mile. Often, for some- thing closer to the truth we have to seek out obscure newsletters and websites. Eor example, as a group. Wall Street economists have failed to predict any of the three recessions in the last 20 years, according to records kept by the Eederal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Secondly, to quote Alan Greenspan, Eederal Reserve Board chairman, “the future, at root, cannot be foretold.” [14] Thirdly, “we are increasingly facing the inconceivable, something radically different from uncertainty'' [16] Here, inconceiv- able is defined as a “mutative set of processes that produce overall phase jumps.” (Eor the taxonomy and examples of phase Jumps, as well as for a useful indicator on how to identify discontinuity, see [23]). Since, almost by definition, the impact of disruption comes as a surprise, even in these times of economic caution, its complexity and potency demand new strategies, for disruption can never be avoided or eliminated. [24] The main idea behind the Early Warning Indicators approach is that: more than uncertainty, inconceivable matters. For example, in many of the issues that concern policy makers, there is an important dis- tinction between mean and variance. Indeed, forecasting is much more than just giving the central cases; when we forecast, we should describe the probability distribution of all the possible out- comes. However, most forecasts give single estimates that convey little informa- tion. The more sophisticated offer a range. The best are set in terms of probabilities of different events occurring. A 50% chance of deep recession next year provides more useful information for business and policy makers than a prediction of 1% real growth. 18 LUIGI TOMA The Early Warning Indicators (EWI) system relies on monitoring critical variables relevant for the specific industry or firm. Thus EWI prepares businesses to face the turning points by having drawn up open-ended contingency outlooks and elastic see- narios to cope with crises, crashes, catastrophes (that is, with the inconceivable, rather i, than with mere uncertainty). Given the speed with which events unfold in today’s world, companies that rely solely on forecasting techniques based on past patterns are unable to predict the downside or upside risks to their businesses. tt* After years of contemplating the way businesses truly operate, I started applying the Early Warning Indicators (EWI) in real — that is, no longer simulated — situations. ^ This is consistent with the fact that business executives, in contrast with the policy makers at a macro level, do have to make decisions in real time, preemptively — that is before they gather and process all the information — rather than just reacting to market ^ dynamics. They have to deal almost constantly with the overarching issue of incom- ^ plete information. V, Strategic Positioning of Firms in Mature Technological Industries: a Case Study n However, before applying EWI to a real world situation, one needs to turn to the analytical framework developed by Michael E. Porter in his classic book on competi- tive strategies [25], in order to deduce what would be the best strategic positioning of companies. This is because we draw from the example of a company operating in a technologically mature industry, namely in the U.S. steel service sector. For the sake of b simplicity, we shall name this firm ‘SW Co.’ SW Co. represents the typical case of a o very competitive U.S. manufacturing firm, its strengths and weaknesses making it an t) almost perfect example of how the U.S. industry reacted in the late 1990s and early . a 2000s to new business challenges and to the main technological trends. The customers’ ii request for SW Co.’s high value-added products is about 20% of the total range of the . n company’s products, while the request for medium value-added products is 40% and i n for low value-added products also 40%. i " Since SW Co. operates in a fragmented industry, one of its features is the less than ; strong bargaining position with buyers. The main result of this rather weak position is that the company is — to use Porter’s terminology — ‘stuck in the middle.’ In other words, tl it tends either to lose the high-volume customers who demand low prices or must bid si away its profits to get this business away from low-cost firms. Yet, SW Co. tends also to u lose high-margin businesses — the cream — to the firms which are focused on high-mar- gin targets or have achieved differentiation overall. Thus, SW Co. is almost guaranteed i o low profitability. So SW Co. is supposed to make a fundamental strategic decision. f L Either it must take the steps necessary to achieve cost leadership or at least cost si parity, which usually involves aggressive investments to modernize and to buy market j o share by acquiring downstream operations, or it must orient itself to a particular target | j. DECISION MAKING IN A HIGH SPEED WORLD 19 or achieve some uniqueness (product differentiation). The choice among these options is necessarily based on the firm’s capabilities and limitations. Successfully executing one of the above-mentioned strategies involves different resources, strengths, organiza- tional arrangements, and managerial style. The strategy that probably suits the com- pany the best is the first one: achieve cost leadership through aggressive investments to modernize and buy market share. When exit barriers are high — U.S. steel industry — excess capacity does not leave the industry, and companies that lose the competitive battle do not give up. Rather, they grimly hang on and, because of their weakness, have to resort to extreme tactics. The profitability of the entire industry can be persistently low as a result. The best case from the viewpoint of industry profits is one in which entry barriers are high but exit barriers are low. Here entry will be deterred, and unsuccessful com- petitors will leave the industry. When both entry and exit barriers are high, profit poten- tial is high but is usually accompanied by more risk (SW Co.’s market for high value-added products). The case of low entry and exit barriers is merely unexciting, but the worst case is one in which entry barriers are low and exit barriers are high (SW Co.’s market for low value-added products). Here entry is easy and will be attracted by up- turns in economic conditions or other temporary windfalls. However, capacity will not leave the industry when results deteriorate. As a result, capacity stacks up in the indus- try and profitability is usually chronically poor. If ranked on a technical capabilities scale (with ‘0’ meaning lack of technical capa- bilities and ‘100’ maximum technical capabilities), SW Co. will probably enjoy a score of around 80. On the other hand, if ranked on a weak/moderate/strong/very strong- based scale, the competition for the company’s low value-added products can be ranked as weak, for medium value-added as moderate and for high value-added as strong (not in terms of volume but in terms of profitability). Given the present business environ- ment, it is expected that competition will increase in all three categories (low-, medium-, and high-value added). Regarding high value-added processes, in 1994 there were only three temper pass cut-to-length lines in the United States, (out of which one was owned by SW Co.); now there are no fewer than 16. The only sensible business strategy for SW Co. is to achieve overall cost leadership through aggressive investments to modernize and buy market share by acquiring down- stream operations. The basic economic rationale behind this decision is that an increase in SW. Co.’s market share would lead to a rise in its return on investment. Cost leadership requires cost minimization in areas like service, sales force, and so on. A great deal of managerial control to cost control is necessary to achieve these aims. Low cost relative to competitors should become the theme running through the entire strategy, through quality, service, and other areas. In this respect, benchmarking for costs, sales, purchases and inventory is crucial. 20 LUIGI TOMA These benchmarks should translate into simple targets in order to become effective management tools. If these targets are not implemented, then cost control i becomes void of its meaning. The timing for adopting the new business strategy is favorable since now SW Co. can buy cheap assets as a result of other companies’ financial distress. We also need to point out the main risks associated with such a strategy. Cost leadership imposes severe burdens on the firm to keep up its position, which means ' reinvesting in modern equipment, outsourcing constantly, ruthlessly scrapping obsolete assets, avoiding product line proliferation and being alert to technological improvements. Cost declines with cumulative volume are by no means automatic, nor are reaping all available economies of scale achievable without significant! attention. Last but not least, SW Co. needs to identify and recognize industry trends early. For example, in the near future it is expected that new exogenous industry trends will lead to consolidation and rationalization of assets by altering the causes of fragmentation. In i ( Ni Total Factor Productivity Growth Trend Based on the formula developed by Shlomo Maital and Hariolf Grupp [26], we have computed SW Co. total factor productivity (TFP). When one subtracts ‘contribu- ^ tion of capital’ from ‘change in labor productivity’ the result is called Total Factor Pro- ^ ductivity: the change in the productivity of labor and capital, generated without capital i investment (such as: better management methods, etc.). The change in TFP is espe- cially important, because it goes straight to the bottom line. y It enables higher output and sales without spending more money on labor and with- p out borrowing and investing more capital. This is why analysis of annual change in TFP j is a powerful underlying driver of performance and profitability. TFP shows how much i value added a typical worker, plus the tools, IT and equipment he or she uses, can ] produce. Some simple mathematical manipulation converts the TFP equation into a rate of change: t, Year-to-Year % Change in Total Factor Productivity = year-to-year % change ^ in Value Added per Worker — (1-a) (year-to-year change in Capital per Employee). ] This equation has a powerful and simple explanation: 1 percentage change in Value Added per Worker is ‘labor productivity.’ J 2 (1-a) (percentage change in Capital per Employee) is the contribution of added capital investment per worker to the change in labor productivity. t( DECISION MAKING IN A HIGH SPEED WORLD 21 In the Table below, we summarize the TFP computation results for SW Co.: Table 1: SW Co. TFP Computation 1999 2000 2001 HI 2002 Percentage change 2000/1999 Percentage change 2001/2000 Percentage change HI 2002/2001 Labour Productivity (tons/line-hour) N/A N/A N/A N/A 2.16% 6.9% 0% Capital per employee $29.6 $29.9 $32.2 $34.6 1.11% 7.75% 5.64% Percentage change in TFP N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.7% 3.2% -2.25% Notes: 1 Economic value added (EVA) = NOPAT (net operating profit after tax) minus the opportunity cost of capital. Here, we assume that shareholders can earn 20% on their investment in equally risky alternatives; hence EVA = NOPAT - (0.2) (capital). Economic value added (EVA) - return on shareholders’ equity after deducting the opportunity cost of capital - has become a widely used measure of firm performance. The advantage of TFP measure is that it takes into account both labour and capital in measuring productivity, as well as, of course, sales and output. 2 % change in total factor productivity = % change in labour productivity minus (capital intensity coefficient) (% change in capital per worker). 3 Assumption: the capital intensity coefficient (1-a) is 0.4, typical for a capital-intensive firm. 4 One cannot aggregate the individual product line productivity, but can aggregate the percentage changes in product line productivity, to obtain SW Co.’s overall percentage change in labour productivity. Total factor productivity growth was negative in HI 2002 in comparison with the year 2001 because labor productivity increase was zero. Confronted with declining productivity, S W Co. may need labor-saving investment to boost profitability. The steadily declining profit margins also connote that the return on invested capital has declined. Indeed, SW Co.’s return on capital has declined constantly from 1995 to 2002. Thus, the pressure from labor costs in the context of a manufacturing recovery may need to spur further investment to boost efficiency. SW Co. also shares a common fea- ture with many companies from different U.S. industries: the inability to mitigate the downside risks of their business. Ways to Mitigate Downside Risks 1 . The build-up in operating leverage — defined as the depreciation charges divided by net operating income — that accompanied the 1995-2000 market boom means that U.S. companies would have to spread higher fixed costs of depreciation over a smaller- than-expected revenue base. Only by reducing capital stock in relation to output would it be brought back to or below desired norms. Firms should rely on the notion of long- term optimal capital-output ratio, given the cost of capital. 22 LUIGI TOMA 2. Over-investment crushed returns on invested capital, massively squeezing e profit margins. The era of low-cost capital encouraged excess. Therefore, the i return-on-capital should become the imperative benchmark for making capital- c investment decisions. a 3. Michael Porter has argued that many companies do not really understand what ‘ strategy is. They confuse it with operational effectiveness. Operational effectiveness s consists of things such as better inventory management, zero defects manufacturing ’ t and business process reengineering. These can help to cut losses or increase profits but ^ they suffer from an important weakness: they can be copied. Much of the management ' t consulting business involves spreading examples of increased operational effectiveness i from one company to another. An advantage gained in this way, while useful, is rarely ( sustainable. Other companies will hear about it and imitate it. c 4. Companies should state clearly their rate of discounting the future. The reason is t that the discount rate is the key. In other words, it makes a lot of difference whether the present “job-loss” recovery will last 2 or 5 years. As Professor Harold Linstone has emphasised, “the discount rate can have a startling effect on decisions.” [27] Following the same line of thought, Esther Dyson warned that the greatest threat facing the economy is what she called the ‘retreat to the present,’ in other words, the shortening of time , ^ horizons and the inability or unwillingness to plan or invest for the future. f 5. There are alternatives to forecasting. A decision maker can buy insurance ' (leaving the insurers to do the forecasting), hedge (bet on both heads and tails), or t use ‘just-in-time’ systems (which push the forecasting problem off to the suppli- ^ ers). [28] Hedging — or the use of derivatives — is also often used by businesses ^ that are confronted with huge volatility in the markets in which they buy or sell ^ products or services. ( 6. In financial markets, Richard Olsen shrewdly noticed that “there are groups whose trading decisions are based on different time horizons.” [29] These trading F horizons are of huge importance because they determine how individuals weight ^ events. Olsen proposes an online global warning system that would generate a market , f ‘weather map.’ It would evaluate the probability of future market volatility and the F expected direction of market moves. The problem with this proposal is not only that it requires a huge amount of data to be collected and analysed, but also 2 because we do not see, so far, an institution willing to devote corresponding con- ^ siderable resources to developing such a system. ^ 7. Last but not least the speed of reaction of the decision makers is what mat- P ters most. By and large, forecasting methods are often performed poorly in i c organisations, sometimes because managers have too much confidence in their s intuition. [30] Besides, humans have an innate tendency to ignore information that a is inconsistent with their preconceptions about the world. [3 1 ] (For a psychologist’s n exploration of why this innate tendency is rational from the standpoint of human li ^ DECISION MAKING IN A HIGH SPEED WORLD 23 evolution, please see [32]). Therefore, theory can lock in information that is important, and thus be dangerous to one’s behaviour and wellbeing, not to mention one’s personal safety. This is especially true when the world is changing rapidly, as it is today. The 2001 recession has had truly unique characteristics. First and foremost, the speed with which economic events have unfolded since mid-2000 has taken everyone by surprise, including the U.S. Federal Reserve Board. The abruptness of the slowdown was startling. The age we live in is characterized by higher and higher speed. We used to think in terms of the positive impact of this fast pace on our life. But it left us totally unprepared for the downside risks. That is the reason why “there is good reason to challenge the relevance of relying on the past in predicting the future” [33] and to develop new methodologies, including an Early Warning Indicators approach such as the one we propose in this paper. Applying the Early Warning System to SW Company The Early Warning System we have devised relies on two control parameters; the first parameter is ‘A t,’ which represents the time span for getting information about the process; the second one is ‘a;’ , which represents a relative warning level that can inform the decision maker about the state of the process, a warning interval that points to an optimum decision making time span based on information availability (for more information about ‘A t’ and ‘a;,’ please see our analytical model as presented in [5]). Thus, our Early Warning Indicators (EWI) system, suitable for companies such as SW Co., consists of an index, which is an average of 34 indicators of global, U.S., regional (i.e.. Midwest), and company-specific activity. The EWI index is constructed as a diffusion index. Diffusion indices have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. We have constructed EWI indices for orders, shipments, employment, supplier deliveries, inventories, , prices and so on. SW Co. has been particularly interested in having an EWI price index in order to anticipate price trends as well as to mitigate the volatility of steel prices (for readers unfamiliar with the steel industry it might be useful to know that the steel market is a spot/contract market which does not use futures and other derivatives to hedge against price exposure). Having said that, we need to mention that even if Early Warning Indi- cators can be presented as diffusion indexes, they are not diffusion indices in the proper sense of the word (as they are defined on the National Association of Purchasing Man- j agers’ website: www.ism.org). The Early Warning System is a sensitivity structural matrix, which defines SW Co.’s response to a change in ‘A t’ and ‘a;,’ which is to a change in the time of response and the decision speed of the business executives 24 LUIGI TOMA running the company. In our example, a relatively small fluctuation of ‘aj’ and ‘A t’ may lead to a dramatic change in the company’s performance. Indeed, using again the SW Co. example, in the spring of 2000 the company bought too much steel, building huge inventory, in the anticipation of even higher steel prices and buoyant demand. In business parlance they double-ordered or, in layman’s terms, they speculated. Both actions proved incorrect. The price of hot-rolled sheet steel tumbled in the United States starting in August the same year, while demand reached a maximum in June 2000 after which it started to dry up, and has followed a long and painful downward trend ever since. How would EWI have changed the situation? First, it would have alerted the management in real time (i.e., March 2000) that the company should slow down its purchasing of steel. In other words, EWI leads by three to four months. The company became aware of this fact only five months later, in August, when it had full information, but when it was already too late, in the sense that the carrying costs of a huge pile up in inventory led the company to its first negative net annual income in many years. Using the terminology we employed in our EWI model, in the case of SW Co., the value of i.e., of the warning interval was violated, since the decision maker was not informed about the projected state of steel demand in advance, prior to approaching the dangerous limit but only after it surpassed this limit. Second, ‘A t,’ the time span management needed for getting information about the supply/demand conditions, and which was set — correctly — by the company’s manage- ment at one month, was exceeded by five months, that is, by 500%! For the sake of simplicity however, we treat the EWI index as diffusion indices, so that we can build an EWI time series in order to benchmark the company’s performance versus the performance of industry as a whole. But how efficient is it for a company to use an EWI index, instead of time series forecasting? Using the EWI index, SW Co. has diminished its material cost divergence from the industry’s benchmark as published in the Purchasing Magazine [34] from $1 1 . 36 per ton of steel in the 22 months preceding EWI implementation (May 1 999-February 2001) to only $8.45 per ton of steel in the 22 months after EWI implementation: March 2001 to December 2002. That is a decrease in unit costs for the company by 25.6%! Given that on aver- age SW Co. buys around 353 thousand tons of steel (hot-rolled sheet) yearly, the unit cost decrease ($2.91) corresponded to annual material cost savings of $1,027,230 in 2002 only. To gain perspective, it should be noted that the above- mentioned total cost savings amount represents 67.22% of SW Co.’s net operating income for the whole year 2002. On the other hand, it might be interesting to note that during the 44 months — 22 prior and another 22 after EWI implementation — hot-rolled steel prices have reached two peaks and two troughs, which means that the downward and upward DECISION MAKING IN A HIGH SPEED WORLD 25 trends have cancelled each other out and, consequently, they have not influenced the results. EWI detects both upturns and downturns in a specific industry. If a dynamic regression model had been used for the same data series, the results would have been insignificant from a statistical point of view, in the sense that the cost savings would have been mediocre. Similar cost savings have been obtained by implementing the EWI index in other U.S. industries: semiconductors, medical and communications equipment, non-durable consumer goods, etc. Conclusion Why early warning systems like the one we presented in this paper have been ignored or downplayed by leading policy makers and their advisers in the 1990s is an interesting subject for research, but it is difficult to avoid the impression that herd effects are as frequent in the field of ideas and policy making as in the finan- cial markets. [35] Once the herd is in full pursuit of the latest fashion it is deaf to any suggestion that it might be going in the wrong direction; but when it finally comes to a halt, the standard excuse for its behavior is that ‘everyone else made the same mistake,’ in which case everyone can be exonerated. The stability of any socio-political-economic system ultimately rests on three crucial conditions: one, on whether it has legitimacy, i.e. whether the rules and procedures according to which authority is conferred and exercised can be justi- fied and can be seen to be rooted in Adam Smith’s ‘moral sentiments of the popu- lation;’ two, on whether the agreed rules, conventions of behavior, etc., maintain order in the system by encouraging acceptable behavior and penalizing the unac- ceptable; and three, on the welfare outcome, which recognizes that popular sup- port for institutions and economic arrangements will not be sustained if the ’ distribution of costs and benefits is considered by too many of the population to be unjust. [36] The instability in the international financial system in the last decade, the aggressive pursuit of an ever-widening liberalization agenda, the market bubble and especially the ‘infectious greed’ that led to the present loss of confidence in i the corporate world, all suggest that the global system may be rapidly moving dan- gerously closer to violating all three conditions. The intellectual excesses of mar- ,ket worship, laissez-faire and social Darwinism have had their glory days while ' notions of commonwealth, civic purpose and fairness have been — for too long — » crowded out of the public debate. 26 LUIGI TOMA Acknowledgements I am most grateful to Professor Daniel M. Schydlowsky who made suggestions and i provided useful insights during the implementation of the Early Warning Index. I am also thankful to Emeritus Professor Harold Linstone, Portland State University, and to Professor Robert 1. Herman from the American University in Washington, DC. I am indebted to Joseph Coates for sharing his deep knowledge of public policy issues and to Gordon AuBuchon from whom I have learned much about steel industry. Last but not least, I wish to thank Ian Lienert and two anonymous referees for their pertinent critical comments. References 1 . Eliade, M. (1986) Briser le toit de la maison. La creativite et ses symbols, Fayard, Paris. 2. Kundera, M. (1997) Slowness, (translated from Czech), HarperCollins, New York. 3. Williams, G.P. (1997) Chaos Theory Tamed, Joseph Henry Press, Washington, DC, pp.3-6. 4. Mazaar, M.J. (1998) ‘Global trends 2005: the challenge of a new millennium,’ A Cantigny Conference Series ^ Report by the Robert R McCormick Tribune Foundation. 5. Toma, L. and Gheorghe, E. (1992) ‘Equilibrium and disorder in decision making processes,’ Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 41, June, pp.401^22. 6. Hamel, G. (2000) Leading the Revolution, Harvard Business School Press, August. 7. Foster, R. and Kaplan, S. (2001) Creative Destruction, DoubleDay, April. 8. Eisenhardt, K. and Brown, S. (1998) Competing on the Edge. Strategy as Structured Chaos., Harvard Busi- ness School Press, April. 9. Michaels, E. (2001) War for Talent, Harvard Business School Press, September.. 10. Abrahamson, E. (2000) ‘Change without pain,’ Harvard Business Review, July. 11. Brabeck, P. (2001) ‘The business case against revolution,’ Harvard Business Review, Feb. 12. Collins, J.C. and Collins, J. (2001) Good to Great: Why Some Companies Make the Leap ... and Others Don ’t, HarperCollins, New York, October. 13. Federal Reserve Board’s Semiannual Monetary Policy (2001) Report to the Congress. ‘Testimony of Chair- man Alan Greenspan,’ 1 3 February. 14. Simon, H.A. (1997) Administrative Behavior. A Study of Decision Making Processes in Administrative Or- ganizations, (4th edition). The Free Press, New York. 15. Greenspan, A. (2001) ‘The challenge of measuring and modeling a dynamic economy,’ Remarks made at the Washington Policy Conference of the National Association for Business Economics, Washington, DC, 27 March. 16. Solomon, J. (2001) ‘An economic speedometer gets an overhaul,’ New York Times, 23 December. 17. Dror, Y. (1999) ‘Beyond uncertainty: facing the inconceivable,’ Technological Forecasting and Social Change, i An International Journal, Vol. 62, No 1/2, August/September, pp. 15 1-153. 18. Linstone, H.A. (2000) ‘Complexity science: implications for forecasting,’ Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 65, No. 1, September, pp. 79-90. 19. (2001) ‘An early warning system for currency crises,’ Morgan Stanley Research Note, 3 July. 20. Hilbers, R, Krueger, R. and Moretti, M. (2000) ‘New tools for assessing financial system soundness,’ Finance & Development, published by International Monetary Fund, Sept. 21. Kohler, H. (2001) ‘IMF Managing Director,’ quoted by Financial Times, December. 22. Mulford, C.W. and Cominskey, E.E. (1996) Financial Warnings, Wiley, New York. DECISION MAKING IN A HIGH SPEED WORLD 27 23. Ayres, R.U. (2000) ‘On forecasting discontinuities,’ Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 65, No. 1, September, pp.81-97. 24. Christensen, C.M. (1997) The Innovator’s Dilemma, Harvard Business School Press, Cambridge. 25. Porter, M.E. (1980) Competitive Strategy. Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors, The Free Press, New York. 26. Grupp, H. and Maital, S. (2001) Managing New Product Development and Innovation. A Microeconomic Toolbox, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK. 27. Linstone, H.A. with Mitroff, 1. 1. (1994) The Challenge of the 21st Century. Managing Technology and Our- selves in a Shrinking World, State University of New York Press, pp. 257-260. 28. Scott Armstrong, J. (2001) (Ed.) Principles of Forecasting. A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, p.5. 29. Olsen, R. (2001) ‘Weather maps to forecast market storms,’ Financial Times, 29-30 Dec. 30. Madridakis, S., Wheelwright, S.C. and Hyndman, R.J. (1998) Forecasting. Methods and Applications, John Wiley, New York, pp.492-502. 31. Feldman, R.A. (2001) ‘Thinking about thinking about investment,’ Morgan Stanley Research Note, 6 Nov. 32. Goleman, D. (1985) Vital Lies, Simple Truths: The Psychology of Self Deception, Basic Books, New York. 33. Roach, S. (2001) Morgan Stanley Research Note, December. 34. Stundza, T. (2001) ‘Steel flash report,’ Purchasing Magazine, 30 November. 35. Rayment, P.B.W. (2002) Financial Times, 10 July. ml ■■■ :/ •• 28 ■ , il;; -i -» ^ {lAUf U. f-* ,r^n I; ■_> vn»%itpU;^K. ,. ^. .T.&i%«iVJlMli \>-wmr,iii)«(d»(6»abirt»*f»i*Cr txK";) .i^^i swf 1 ■ - •i*.v. :4' ' ■« • , ' jp’^ Il^ ’ "Ei^^r ' ■'t'U' -lii “^jV •* b.>.i . ■ f. ■(•■i'.or, '■?>.Tt'lu ■' .a-stgtfr- v^rfr(i.:r.i» S'r8l©tl«*«,i«l» '■f, ftrii'iic,"'**, , ,. ..V'^5- •41 .'T^biWii^ jiiff’jbr*TLA ijftWJi- ,Wnr 4nl*.M:f ^' -^ . • ^ n. 0) #<»r ^ “vilM.f* (<00£ > 8 ,m3k|J<*^ ini.l no.nviv/jvt . t4«5bc^ ‘ t.fl j.. ‘--,ii •f>-' t5viW/: j.'^'^ii » vvp,i ;4»'rtn yr^J4^'♦» ' .A « ,v.*.;' w ftw -^rJtrfit ^ tf:'V'a^wnL‘t If^v> - - ^ ' 4.»/W' ‘ * . ' t "Y ui* : i‘ Cl*? **'\ r •pir ^4 //<■ i; r Hi V. '■ 1 % ■- '.ji ayn ». ..j^|M 'ltf««»^ v' ' ■ _- ■ v; :* , ' ifCiir-'' ' -A fVwXfcV*^ ‘i-n^ ■ i S fwf - ■• V f.,. •:*' • - 4»-!" ' _ •./ ' ’*■?. •- V-f^' ^ ■' ».' ti.)^ ,.,.rt«n^^ r.'ijfc^i iltd ; j_ %<*■*■/' .‘»'''k>' ' • .'•’ni I .1^./^ ■ , V , T * MhdiK hpMV^ ^ >•:• _ •r.- . 1 i.X. ''j'-'-l ' I^:s4*4r I ■'. ■ V »:,(\».U- ' I •'iMlOi!':*/ .V.-ai - -V ?/'.■ P'.;' v( < <, » ’ * » 'i'fvv ’*:0d>^Ct;vA«4. , iMki .n^'r%fmU ' ■■ -ry* ^ }4>M. .* - iWi A.,^ 4 ^ - ^ -H)' -.* '. ■ r\. ■i -i/'. ....'M, Utn %hiiaoU ^ \u. -Hits '- < -"lo' -»r tfu y^i^Mtr' ^ W«^nL,'i»>H. ly: Vv ' An^^r-l|rl•»^v 4^' v^,.^ Vt4 .?: ' . ;,.v4nN . '• ■ IV vM. 'll .’-f, I» ••, *„ ,? ' - - !*"■ .'j ;i...T»^-%' f^aw ''<'?•?, 'tf/W.w^siy' f ■'1^ * “ ' ^ 0 ♦ ’ ’A^t ;«# ^ ‘-‘"rdf 1v,Kihrf »W > f ( - -■ ^i»v- . icfrVwt Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences, Volume 89, Number 1 & 2, 29-64, Spring/Summer 2003 Predicting Activist Behavior: An Analysis of the General Social Survey Adrienne Redd Sociology Department Temple University Abstract This analysis of the General Social Survey uses a multiple regression model with explana- tory power of better than 14 percent to confirm that perception of environmental threat is the principal impetus of activism (defined by the author as at least three out of four of the following environmentally-oriented activities: protesting for a cause, signing a petition, belonging to an environmental group and contributing money). Two psychological factors of the potential activist suggested by previous research — empowerment and ^/.^satisfaction with family life — also contribute to a regression model explaining activist behavior. This analysis corroborates earlier findings that the typical American environmental activist is more likely to be college-educated, female, between the ages of 29 and 45, the parent of one or two (but not more) children and living in a household with middle class or greater income. However the analysis does not confirm that there is a modal activist. Furthermore, unpacking dimensions of environmental threat does not substantively or significantly add to the model’s explanatory power. Introduction Currently, no universally embraced theory explains how attitudes are translated into activist responses or why one individual with avowed concern about an issue acts, while another expressing the same opinion does not. Klandermans (1986) summarizes three basic explanations of ostensibly altru- istic, public or activist response to situations: individuals may join a protest or response because of psychological factors, or after weighing perceived costs and benefits of participation (Olson 1965; Mayer 1989, Ostrum 1997) or because of relational and intergroup dynamics (Bourdieu 1973; Laumann and Pappi 1976; Blau 1977; Rytina and Morgan 1982; Hinkle, Fox-Cardamone, Lee, Haseleu, Brown and Irwin 1996). The question remains. What initial set of conditions and stimuli motivates individu- als to act publicly, rather than merely hold an opinion privately? Reicher (1982) and Parker ( 1 997) argue that greater understanding of individual psychological processes in collective action can help sociologists approach other key problems of social theory, though this is disputed by others (McPhail and De Gruyter 1991). 30 ADRIENNE REDD Emphasizing this individual and psychological approach to the sociological question of collective action, this analysis has three purposes. First, it attempts to j bring greater depth to a previous survey and to other investigations that identify perception of threat to health or life as the most salient and statistically significant stimulus producing an activist response. Second, it simultaneously tests the pre- i dictive value of two psychological factors: the empowerment of the potential activ- I ist and his or her dissatisfaction (with family life.) And third, though control variables I (or demographic characteristics describing the individuals most likely to exhibit a certain behavior) are ordinarily of lesser theoretical interest, this investigation also explores the possibility of describing a modal activist — the member of society most likely to protest, become politically involved or even assume leadership when faced with a threat. Although the relationship is hypothesized or assumed in interpretive and theoreti- cal work, little empirical research has explored the relationship between activism and perception of threat to life or health and activist behavior. However, Seguin, Pelletier and Hunsley (1998) showed in a recent investigation that perception of threat was the most statistically significant explanation of activist behavior. This analysis of the General Social Survey' uses a multiple regression model to I take the work of Seguin et al. a step further by testing the combined explanatory i power of five aspects of perception of threat to health or life. The regression analy- sis also includes two psychological factors: empowerment (used by Seguin et al.) j and dissatisfaction with life suggested by Hoffer (1951), Aryee and Yaw (1997) 1 and by Lee (1997) in another multiple regression analysis of predictive factors of s activism. li Third, and not unimportantly, this analysis attempts to clarify the demographic por- tl trait of the modal environmental activist. The reason for this nested set of three research questions is the underlying hypoth- a esis that testing each of these potential causal factors in isolation from the others is not a sufficient to bring greater understanding to their combined effect. it The importance of the analysis is that it will add external validity and wider ti applicability to earlier analyses done on surveys conducted in very limited geo- pi graphical regions. Second, the psychological factors tested in this analysis have n; either not been systematically tested before or have not been shown to be statist!- bt cally significant in previous research. Third, the analysis can also greatly improve at upon both the statistical explanatory power of earlier regression analyses as well ac as bring deeper understanding of the process by which a dissatisfied but empow- tb ered, or worried but relatively secure citizen makes the leap from private concern to public action. in PREDICTING ACTIVIST BEHAVIOR 31 Literature Review This review of the literature supports three aspects of this inquiry: perception of threat to life or health as an impetus toward activist behavior, two psychological predispositions and a demographic portrait of the modal activist. (This portrait will predominantly focus on environmental activists in the United States and Canada, but will also touch upon activism outside of North America and outside the realm of environmentalism.) Perception of Threat as the Principal Impetus for Activist Behavior Though few have tested it precisely, several authors have theorized or demonstrated the connection between perception of threat as a motivator and activist response. Speaking within the sub-discipline of sociology of risk, Clarke and Short (1993) note that the public responds differently to technological disasters than to natural disasters, specifi- cally they assert that “threat perception is now more likely to galvanize public organiza- tion and complaint.” i Although there was a relatively minor activist response to lead contamination, Tara I McGee found in her combined qualitative and quantitative research that perception of health risks from the lead poisoning was a key motivator of what public response there was. (McGee, 1999). Also linking perception of threat with activist response is the empirical report, “Of ; global concern: Results of the Health of the Planet Survey” (Riley, Gallup and Gallup ! 1993). The authors say, “In 19 countries, more than 70 percent believe [that there is a strong increase in reported health effects due to environmental degradation], which I indicates that perception of environmental problems as a health threat — especially for : the next generation — has become commonplace around the world.” Acknowledging the difficulty mentioned in the introduction in understanding how ! a set of attitudes is translated into action, Brent Steel (1996) also examines the problem- I atic relationship between environmental attitudes, behavior and activism in “Environ- I mental values and behavior: hypocrisy or consistency?” His paper empirically examines the effect of environmental attitudes on environmentally protective behaviors and I political activism to attain environmental goals. Using data gathered from a 1992 1 national survey, he empirically explores the link between attitudes and self-reported I behavior. While not explicitly mentioning perception of threat, his findings suggest that I attitude intensity correlates with self-reported environmental behavior and political activism in environmental issues. An argument can be constructed that perception of threat is at the more intense end of the spectrum of environmental or other concern. The finding of a sense of threat as a key motivator for citizen action is reinforced in qualitative research. In “Anthropological engagements with environmentalism,” Brosius, Baviskar, Berglund, Dove et al. (June 1999) report that “Environmental threats motivate social action...” 32 ADRIENNE REDD Furthermore, both quantitative and interpretive research link perception of (pre- dominantly environmental) threat to quality of life with activist responses (Abrahams 1999; Aim and Witt 1997). Exemplary Empirical Test of Perception of Threat as a Motivator The major empirical test of perception of threat as a motivator to activist response was performed by Seguin, Pelletier and Hunsley, the Canadian authors of “Toward a model of environmental activism” (1998). They found that “perceived ecological risks played a central role in the determination of environmental activism.” To operationalize the concept of perception of threat, Sequin et al. constructed the independent variable, perception of health risk from 21 measures. Each represented a health threat related to environmental conditions (e.g., nuclear waste, fish caught in the St. Lawrence River, outdoor air quality, bacteria in food). Participants answered each item on a 7-point Likert-type scale, ranging from 1 (almost no health risk) to 7 (high health risk). The survey was mailed out randomly to Canadian households. There was a 24.4 percent response rate, yielding a sample size (N) of 709: 7 1 activists and 638 non-activists. The model of activism by Sequin et al. was statistically tested by means of recur- sive path analyses using multiple regression. All the regressions were conducted using an activism scale with six components. In the first multiple regression analysis, five factors (relative autonomy index, amount of information concerning health risks and health issues, perception of responsibility of different organizations to prevent health risks, perceived importance of problems in the environment, and perception of health risks related to environmental conditions) were entered to identify which would best explain activist behaviors. The only factor in analysis with 709 cases that revealed sta- tistically significant linkage with activist behaviors was perception of health risks. The authors conducted a second multiple regression similar to the first, but only with the | significant variable. This analysis revealed a beta weight of .13. The for the final model by Sequin et al. was 2 percent. In other words, the regression equation to express the variance in activist behaviors left 98 percent of the phenomenon of activism unex- plained by the independent variables chosen by these researchers. The hypothesis of this researcher is that the explanatory power of the Canadian model, although otherwise excellent, is so low because it was not sufficiently multivari- ate and that variables (specifically psychological factors and demographic characteris- tics) must be analyzed together to attain a higher R^. On the completion of the project, Seguin et al. themselves also suggested that unpacking dimensions of perception of environmental threat may yield better results. It is this exemplar upon which this statis- tical inquiry is predominantly built. PREDICTING ACTIVIST BEHAVIOR 33 :i Five Dimensions of Perception of Threat Five dimensions of threat encompass virtually every instance in the literature of perception of threat. They are 1) health risks or dangers to oneself and one’s family, 2) concern about water pollution, 3) concern about air pollution, 4) concern about radia- tion and 5) general concern for nature. Sequin et al. suggest that further studies should identify different components of health risks so as to improve sociological understanding of the relationship between citizens’ perception of health risks and environmental activism. In their analysis, which dealt only with environmental activism, the Canadian authors found that the picture of a typical activist is one of an individual who “perceives as more important various possible problems in the environment such as the quality of the air, the level of pollution from automobiles and industries, and the degradation of 1 animals’ habitats.” A review of the literature does not reveal inquiries, empirical or I otherwise, that unpack and test these different components of perception of envi- ronmental threat. There is, however, literature on each of the five separate percep- tions of threat as a stimulus for activism. I Health Risks or Dangers to Oneself and One^s Family ' Almost all of the qualitative research into incidents of environmental activism mention or assume the pollution problem as a threat to the activists’ health and the health of their family members, particularly their children. For example, Abrahams (1999) found that the quality of life being protected by activist mothers was that of * their children. Abrahams’ finding supports the idea that threat to (oneself and) one’s : family may be the most motivating dimension of perception of threat. j Concern about Water Pollution 1 Contamination of the water was the threat to which residents at Love Canal j responded, documented by Keller (1995), Levine (1982) and others. Lead con- I tamination in South Wales, Australia was dispersed predominantly through the water i table (McGee 1999) and therefore contamination of water is the concern in that I research; and dispersement through water is the principle concern when citizens I protest hazardous waste sites. (Bailey, Faupel, Holland, Waren 1989). In each of 8 these studies cited, it was perception of threat because of contamination of the water that motivated an activist response. i 34 ADRIENNE REDD Concern about Air Pollution ^ Perception of threat from air pollution is less well documented and as a stimulus for activist response it is more difficult to isolate. A contaminant may pollute both the ^ water and the air (in addition to soil and other media.) However, some limited literature ^ links perception of threat from incinerator and industrial air pollution with activist 1 ^ response. (Asch and Seneca 1978, Hamilton 1993). Concern about Radiation \ , As with air pollution, there is cross-over in the way threats from radioactivity 1 can be defined or categorized. Radioactivity may come from natural ores and other i natural sources, nuclear bombs, materials used to make nuclear bombs and nuclear i waste. The nature of activist efforts toward nuclear disarmament are not addressed here because their inclusion would necessitate an overview of the entire realm of peace activism. The principal activist response to a perceived threat from radio- activity (and subsequent academic examination of that response) has come as a result of hazards incumbent with nuclear energy and actual nuclear accidents. ' Threats to a sustainable lifestyle because of dependence on an energy source deemed ' ' risky motivated the activism reported by Geggie and Fairholm (1998), whereas ' straightforward risks to health from nuclear waste have motivated responses ' studies by other researchers (Mehta 1997.) And there has been reseach on the activist response to the nuclear accidents at Three Mile Island in 1979 and at the Chernobyl reactor in 1986. (Opp 1988; Merchant 1992; Walsh and Warland 1993; Dawson 1996). ' Although his primarily methodology was to conduct a multiple regression ' analysis of a random-sample survey of 626 household heads of Allegany County ‘ in upstate New York, Kowalewski (1995) also found that the “bump the dump” ' movement arising in 1988 to protest a proposed low-level nuclear waste (LLNW) ' facility split into two organizations, motivated by two kinds of threat: a moderate Concerned Citizens of Allegany County (concerned about threats to ’ property values), and a more militant Allegany County Nonviolent Action ' Group which threatened civil disobedience (concerned about health and broader environmental protection). There is also literature (Staub 1993) on perception of threat to lifestyle or prop- I erty value as a motivator to racist or violent response, but this is a complex and problematic manifestation, may not even be activism as understood elsewhere and will not be treated here. PREDICTING ACTIVIST BEHAVIOR 35 General Concern for Nature As for general concern for the environment, individuals do worry about beings other than themselves and their immediate kith and kin, although making the connec- tion between this concern and activist response has been difficult. Survey respondents express concern about habitat destruction (Kellert 1979; Ingalsbee 1996), cruelty to animals (Kellert 1981 ; Eagles and Muffit 1990; Herzog, 1993; Peek, Dunham and Dietz 1997) and siting of toxic disposal facilities in poor and minority neighborhoods (Alston 1991; Austin and Schill 1991; Bailey and Faupel 1993) even when they themselves do not live in those neighborhoods. The link between this concern and activist response has been predominantly explored in a qualitative and normative realm, rather than researched quantitatively. Empowerment and Dissatisfaction as Psychological Predispositions for Activist Behavior Empowerment and dissatisfaction, two major independent variables used in this analysis, can be found in the existing literature. Empowerment is conceptually similar to Seguin et al.’s relative autonomy index (RAI). Speer (1995), Herring (1999) and other authors also cite empowerment as a psychological attribute present with or pre- ceding activist behavior. The idea that empowerment precedes and contributes to activ- ist response is also consistent with resource mobilization theory (McVeigh 1995). Conceptualizing it in several ways, authors have also cited dissatisfaction with life in general, dissatisfaction with personal life and relationships and dissatisfaction with other conditions of life as a factor preceding or stimulating activist behavior or par- ticipation in mass movements. Hoffer (1951) discusses dissatisfaction with personal life and relationship as a factor in mass movement participation. Dissatisfaction is related to the variable of cynicism used by Aie-Lee Rie in “Exploration of the sources of student activism: The case of South Korea.” (1997) And Lee also uses satisfaction with college life as an independent variable, her analysis showing that higher dissatis- faction led to greater activism. Both Klanderman (1986) and (Aryee and Yaw, 1997) cite dissatisfaction (with work conditions) as a factor for joining a union. Demographic Portrait of Activists The eight demographic variables reviewed here in terms of their connection to en- vironmental activism are: education, sex, age, race, having children, middle class sta- tus, labor force status and community type. These variables are often analyzed in combination, with overlapping theoretical and structural explanations of why they may influence the likelihood of activism. 36 ADRIENNE REDD Environmental Concern in Younger People and More Educated People In a review of the literature on environmental concern, Van Liere and Dunlap (1980) and Jones and Dunlap (1992) tried to better define the relationship between environ- mental concern and various social and demographic variables such as age, sex, income, education, occupational prestige, place of residence, and political ideology. These researchers found environmental concern to occur in younger people and more edu- cated people. Clearly defined political ideology also made environmental concern more likely. They found environmental concern to be inconsistently or weakly associated with income, occupational prestige, urban residency, and sex. Current literature offers an inconsistent picture of the demographic characteristics of activists. Nonetheless, many researchers continue to operate under the assumption voiced by McCarthy and Zald (1973) that “the grassroots rise up after middle class citizens, in particular young, educated, liberal, urban professionals, apply their ideo- logical and organizational skills to popular mobilization.” The Effect of Youth Kingsley Davis (1940) suggests that younger generations are imperfectly social- ized because there is a gap between the memories and values they have learned from older generations and the reality that they perceive around them. And Schuman and Scott (1979, 1989) found that when people were asked which historical events had the greatest impact on their lives they most often mentioned events that occurred during young adulthood. Performing regression analysis on “Longitudinal study of three generations” (Bengtson & Roberts, 1991), Dunham (1998) tested the inter- generational theories Mannheim articulated in his essay of 1928, “The problem of generations.” She found not that youth, per se, was a stimulus to peace activism but that “The greater the identification with the younger generation, the greater the likelihood of participating in demonstrations for peace.” She found that those who attend college are more likely to participate in demonstrations for peace. Dunham i also found that those who are married are less likely to participate in peace activism. Marriage, which comes with age and maturity, can reduce participation in activism i (Kasschau, Ransford & Bengtson, 1974; Dunham & Bengtson, 1992). By contrast, young people are available to participate in social movements (Braungart, 1984). But it is > for this same reason, of structural availability that housewives may have led the toxics movements of the 1970s and 1980s. (Bantjes and Trussler 1999). Williamson (1998) disagrees that activists are always likely to be younger, predict- ing that the cohort (so-called baby boomers) active in the 1960s and 1970s may become active again once the concerns of professional life are finished. PREDICTING ACTIVIST BEHAVIOR 37 Middle Class Status The radicalized citizens in the study by Kowalewski (1995) were significantly more likely to be middle class, educated, and employed in nonmarket services. They resided closer to one of the three possible sites for the facility being protested. They were more likely to have voted in the last presidential election. And they were less communitarian- idealistic (more conservative.) He also tested age, being female, having dependents and home ownership but did not find that they had a statistically significant relationship to protest against the proposed Low Level Radioactive Waste (LLRW) disposal facility. The explanation that Kowalewski gives for activists to be better educated and have stable middle class incomes is that “popular discontent is articulated by a middle class vanguard, which has the intellectual, financial, and other resources to fuel the embers of dissatisfaction. This vanguard radicalizes the unenlightened and conservative mass sectors.” Race No multiple regression analysis was found that linked race with environmental activism and although there are accounts of protest against so-called environmental racism (Allen, Lester and Hill 1995; Alston 1991; Austin and Schill 1991; Bailey and Faupel 1993), researchers have asked but not yet satisfactorily answered why so few non-whites participate in the mainstream environmental movement. (Adams 1992). Being Female Though they argue that women’s activism is philosophically deeper, “translocal” and not simply because they are available as housewives and concerned about their children, Bantjes and Trussler (1999) articulate that “within anti-toxics movement publications and academic literature, the figure of the housewife activist has begun to assume almost arche- typal dimensions.” Similarly, the qualitative finding by Abrahams (1999) that activist mothers are motivated by a desire to protect their children supports the portrait of the American environmental activist as a (comparatively young) mother. In fact, it is the interpretive and theoretical link between the experiences of women and environmental activism that best supports the idea that there may be a statistically demonstrable link between being female and becoming involved as an activist. However, the postmodern theoretical context of exist- ing feminist treatments has left little room for quantitative analyses of this connection. This may be because the constructivist perspective of postmodernism and feminism does not mesh well with the objectivist stance of statistical analysis. The literature cited offers some validation of a portrait of the (predominantly envi- ronmental) activist as being educated, female and young and having middle class sta- tus. Having dependents, working and where one lives have been of interest to previous researchers, but there as yet is no clear quantitative evidence for the influence of these 38 ADRIENNE REDD variables, though it is reasonable to assert that environmental activists (in contrast to > other types of activists) may be more likely to live in rural regions because such regions are the locale of hazardous waste dumps, low level radioative waste sites, incinerators , and other contaminating facilities, which may stimulate protest. Research Focus and Hypotheses In the simplest sense, the main hypothesis for this research is that perception of threat to health can predict self-reported activist behavior. The first hypothesis (H^) is that considering various aspects of perception of threat [ to health — breaking it into five dimensions of perception of threat — will increase the : explanatory power of a multiple regression model. Specifically, the researcher predicts that will be increased over the in earlier multiple regression models by separating , out and testing the predictive power of five aspects of perception of threat: 1) health i risks or dangers to oneself and one’s family, 2) concern about water pollution, 3) con- cern about air pollution, 4) concern about radiation and 5) general concern for nature. None of these categories of threat is new. All of them come from previous research as well as from a prima facie understanding of the kinds of environmental threats a person i or family might face. The categorization was developed before investigating the limits v of the data set, but happily, the GSS question supports this taxonomy. Other researchers have looked at these factors, but not in a systematic way, therefore, this taxonomy of threats is one of the original contributions in this analysis. Another way of saying this is that previous researchers have failed to take into i account the important motivating factor of selfishness, which, though it may have a i negative connotation, may produce a real benefit to those affected by the changes brought i; about by the (potential) activist who feels threatened and acts. The first category of perception of threat to self and family is the closest to home. The middle three: percep- tion of threat because of water or air pollution or radiation are less immediate if one perceives them as a threat to others, but not to oneself and the fifth category is the most t, abstract and least immediate. It may be, in some cases, merely an aesthetic concern. As discussed in the literature review, previous authors, including Sequin et al., Lee ’ and Hoffer have posited ^/^satisfaction as a factor preceding or stimulating activist behavior and Sequing et al. used a factor they called the autonomy index, which is v similar to empowerment. The second hypothesis (H^) is that the addition of two psycho- logical characteristics of the potential activist, empowerment and dissatisfaction with i! family life will similarly increase the explanatory power of a multiple regression model. It is hypothesized that activists are more likely to report general dissatisfaction with i life, but that being sufficiently empowered will also make respondents more likely to be activists. These two psychological factors have been chosen to be tested because they may be the two predispositions best generalized to other types of activism and because they are most consistently supported in the literature. PREDICTING ACTIVIST BEHAVIOR 39 The third hypothesis (H3) is that the following control variables will also contribute to the multiple regression model: education, sex, age, race, number of children, house- hold income, labor force status and community type. Furthermore, it is hypothesized that activists will be better educated, younger, white, more likely to have children, middle class and will have a household income which allows the wife/mother to keep house as her primary occupation. One theoretical expla- nation for this is that housewives are more likely to be structurally available for activism (Bantjes and Trussler 1999). And it is hypothesized that the activists will be more likely ! to come from rural communities because waste disposal facilities and other sources of pollution are more likely to be located in rural or exurban areas. This is based on the finding by Kowalewski (1995) that residents living closer to a LLRW disposal site were more likely to have an activist response. There is a fourth assumption implied along with these three that may not be able to i be empirically tested, but it is nonetheless important. It may be there is a whole effect of ' perception of threat, psychological predispositions and demographic characteristics (with all of their implied cultural dimensions) that may be greater in combination than the sum of the parts. The literature does show that researchers have tried to measure mere positive attitudes toward the environment and these alone are very weak in their ability to predict activist behavior. It may be that a complex and subtle chemistry of life situa- tion, psychological stance, combined with the triggering effect of perception of threat are what propel a citizen into action, taking him or her beyond merely expressing con- cern for the environment in a survey. Another original contribution of this analysis of environmental activism is taking into account a more complex set of causal factors: the demographic, the psychological predispositions and the perception of threat to life and health. In light of the existing literature on the explanatory power of threat for activist behavior, an important under- : taking is to break out threat into several dimensions and test their value in a multiple regression model. It is hoped that this will yield a higher explanatory power than the of 2% attained by Sequin et al. Furthermore, it will be valuable to test empowerment j and dissatisfaction and previously identified demographic characteristics in the same i multiple regression model. |i :! The Data Set The data set used for this analysis is the General Social Survey (GSS), an annual, omnibus, personal interview survey of U.S. households conducted by the National Opin- ion Research Center (NORC) of the University of Michigan, respected for the highest survey standards in design, sampling, interviewing, processing, and documentation. The GSS has an overall response rate of approximately 80 percent. Non-response in the GSS can occur at several points in the survey. There are two stages of information 40 ADRIENNE REDD collection: at the household level and at the individual level. Non-response at the house- hold level averages 6 percent. Non-response also occurs at the level of individual ques- tions. For most questions, the response rate is high and, in tables, the non-responses generally appear under the heading “not stated”. This stands in contrast to the survey implemented by Seguin et al. Although the operationalization of the various dimensions of perception of envi- ronmental threat in the GSS is satisfactory, its limitation is that these questions were only asked in a special module in 1993 and 1994, so although the GSS has questions asked in those two years which could replicate the other factors used by Seguin et al. and Kowalewski, those factors could not be tested in this multiple regression analysis. Measurement and Methods Dependent Variable The dependent variable in this analysis is activist behavior. Sequin et al. upon whose work this analysis is based, operationalized activism with six self-reported behaviors considered to be generally representative of activists’ behaviors. These behaviors are (a) participating in events organized by ecological groups, (b) circulating a petition demanding an improvement of government policies regarding the environ- ment, (c) participating in protests against current environmental conditions, (d) helping to financially support an ecological group, (e) voting for a government proposing environmentally conscious policies, and (f) writing letters to companies that manufac- ture harmful products. For this analysis, activism was operationalized by constructing an index of four comparable activist behaviors. The four questions measured participation in demon- strations, environmental group membership, petition-signing and financial contribution to environmental groups. Though this operationalization was limited by the questions asked in the GSS (notably missing is communication with other citizens, to officials and to the press these components) this is a satisfactory match. Some authors do include criteria at the extreme ends of the continuum; vandalism and violence (Lee 1997); others include symbolic protest, but the four components of the index are a moderate representation of the general understanding of activism. The exact wording of the four component questions is as follows: 1 1 . In the last five years, have you taken part in a protest or demonstration about an environmental issue? Y=l, N=2 dichotomous response plus DK=8, no an- swer=9 and not app.=BK. 12. Are you a member of any group whose main aim is to preserve or protect the environment? Y=l, N=2 dichotomous response plus DK=8, no answer=9 and not app.=BK. PREDICTING ACTIVIST BEHAVIOR 41 13. In the last five years, have you signed a petition about an environmental issue? Y=l, N=2 dichotomous response plus DK=8, no answer=9 and not app.=BK. 14. In the last five years, have you given money to an environmental group? Y=l, N=2 dichotomous response plus DK=8, no answer=9 and not app.=BK. Constructing the Index of the Dependent Variable Constructing an index of a single dependent variable was achieved by adding the values for the four responses to the questions. As previously mentioned, all four responses are dichotomous. Missing responses for the other three components of the index were dealt with by assigning them a value of 2, so that a non-response is essentially collapsed into a negative response. Therefore, if the response is missing, the assigned value adds nothing to the positive activist status of the respondent, but the overall case is still usable in the analysis. TABLE 1 A. UNIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE AND TYPES OF PERCEPTION OF THREAT N MEAN STANDARD DEVIATION RESPONSE RATE INDEX OF ACTIVIST BEHAVIOR 2719 7.1261 .9226 * PROTESTED FOR ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUE 2719 1.97 .17 SIGN PETITION ON ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUE 2807 1.98 .15 MEMBER OF ENVIRONMENTAL GROUP 2879 1.99 .01 * GIVE MONEY TO ENVIRONMENTAL GROUP 2724 1.96 .19 * FIVE TYPES OF PERCEPTION OF THREAT PERCEPTION OF THREAT TO SELF AND FAMIL WATER POLLUTION DANGER TO MY FAMILY 2813 2.33 .96 PESTICIDES DANGER TO MY FAMILY 2787 2.67 .93 ALL PESTICIDES CAUSE CANCER 2632 2.71 .82 CAR POLLUTION DANGER TO MY FAMILY 2709 2.65 .92 INDUST AIR POLLUTION DANGER TO MY FAMILY 2789 2.38 .93 CAR POLLUTION WILL INCREASE IN NEXT 10 YRS 2651 2.65 1.00 * ALL MAN-MADE CHEMS CAUSE CANCER 2591 2.53 .86 * NUKE POWER DANGER TO MY FAMILY 2641 2.68 1.10 * PERCEPTION OF THREAT FROM WATER POLLUTION WATER POLLUTION DANGER TO ENVIR 2809 2.05 .92 PESTICIDES DANGER TO ENVIR 2798 2.62 .89 * PERCEPTION OF THREAT FROM AIR POLLUTION INDUST AIR POLLUTION DANGER TO ENVIR 2803 2.20 .88 CAR POLLUTION DANGER TO ENVIR 2715 2.43 .89 * CARS NOT IMP CAUSE OF AIR POLLUTION 2714 3.20 .92 PERCEPTION OF THREAT FROM RADIATION NUKE WASTE DANGEROUS FOR THOUSANDS OF YRS 2667 1.75 .64 ALL WILL DIE IF EXPOSED TO RADIOACT 2672 2.97 .86 NUKE POWER DANGER TO ENVIRONMENT 2654 2.54 1.04 HUMANS MAKE ALL RADIOACTIVITY 2555 2.87 .96 GENERAL CONCERN ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENT HUMANS ARE MAIN CAUSE OF PLANT & ANIMAL EXTINCTION 2674 2.31 .87 HUMANS CHANGE NATURE FOR THE WORSE 2718 3.17 1.06 PEOPLE WORRY TOO MUCH ABOUT ENVIR, TOO LITTLE ABOUT THE ECONOMY 2822 3.02 1.22 ALMOST EVERYTHING WE DO HARMS ENVIRONMENT 2798 2.81 1.03 PEOPLE WORRY TOO MUCH ABOUT PROGRESS HARMING THE ENVIRONMENT 2797 3.17 1.09 * NATURE WOULD BE AT PEACE IF HUMANS LEFT IT ALONE 2813 2.74 1.03 I ‘Response rate cannot be calculated because these questions were only asked in 1993 and 1994. I 42 ADRIENNE REDD TABLE 1B. UNIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES N MEAN STANDARD DEVIATION RESPONSE RATE FAMILY LIFE 24070 2.10 1.36 68% FRIENDSHIPS 24128 2.24 1.24 68% IT'S TOO DIFFICULT FOR SOMEONE LIKE ME TO DO ANYTHING ABOUT ENVIRONMENT 2783 3.36 1.06 * HIGHEST YEAR OF SCHOOL COMPLETED 35178 12.36 3.20 99.7% MALE 15467 1 0 100% FEMALE 19817 1 0 100% AGE OF RESPONDENT 35153 45.05 17.58 99.6% WHITE 29604 1 0 100% NONWHITE 5680 1 0 100% NUMBER OF CHILDREN 35157 2.01 1.85 99.6% TOTAL FAMILY INCOME 8551 14.96 5.29 76% LABOR FORCE STATUS 35282 3.17 2.52 99.9% TYPE OF COMMUNITY IN WHICH R LIVES 2874 2.65 1.18 92% ‘Response rate cannot be calculated because this question was only asked in 1993 and 1994. Univariate analysis (frequencies) of the resulting constructed index ranges from a value of 4 to 8, with 4 or 5 indicating that the respondent is what will be called an activist for the purpose of this analysis. The average respondent has a mean activist score of 7.126. The distribution of the variable is highly skewed (-.910) because I am not measuring intelligence or height or some other characteristic with a normal distri- bution throughout the population, but rather a phenomenon that is relatively rare. Of 2719 valid cases, 25 self-report as activists who answered “yes” to all four questions and 134 self-report as having answered “yes” to three out of four questions. These are the cases marked in bold. Also, see Table 5 in the appendix. So, approximately 6.7 percent of the population self-reports activist behaviors (in the environmental realm, which is the context of this analysis). I should note that the four questions operationalizing activism for this analysis ask if the respondent has ever participated in each of the four litmus activities. There I am making the assumption that citizens can be activists at some points in their lives and not at others. This analysis requires the possibly problematic assumption of a consistency of psychological stance in the respondent who has ever been an activist or reports that he or she has ever partici- pated in activist activities, as reported here. Bivariate Analysis of the Index The index of activist behavior has 2719 sample cases. This is the same for the index and its components because that is the way that nonresponses were handled. All corre- lations between the index and its components have two-tailed significance to a level of p = .003 or better. TABLE 2. shows Pearson Correlations for the activist index, its four component and the twelve independent variables used in the final multiple regression. The correla- tions among the four components of the index of activism and with the index itself TABLE 2. CORRELATIONS FOR ACTIVIST INDEX, ITS 4 COMPONENTS & 12 INDEPENDENT VARIABLES PREDICTING ACTIVIST BEHAVIOR 43 #OF CHILDREN O O .067 .036 .019 1.026 ^.017 .072 -.017 -.142 -.103 .035 -.097 .079 .342 .056 -.255 o o o z O < o 3 a LU k261 q 00 O) q lO q o 00 q .057 05 CO O .052 .212 -.057 -.094 .329 -.050 -.283 -.091 o q 35066 RACE .075 .012 in o o o o o Csl -.041 L.092 CM .063 .129 -.123 00 CM q -.072 o o o 35178 35157 GE .074 .063 .018 .002 o q .018 .125 o q -.164 .034 CO q o N. CM § 1 000 35153 35061 35035 SEX -.036 .017 200- O q 00 q -.149 CM 5 .035 -.058 -.059 -.023 000' 1 35153 35284 35178 35157 TOO DIFFICULT -.271 -.091 -.258 -.119 -.152 -.015 -.097 600- .320 00 q -.107 o o 2783 (.227) CO h- C'J 2779 2777 w CL I w D Z LU QC LL .106 -.049 00 o o o o -.009 00 q 00 q -.012 .430 o o o 5 <35 OO CM CM 24030 24128 ^4059 24055 FAMILY LIFE o o o 00 00 o o q o q .004 LO q 00 q -.041 -.017 OOOT 24039 958 (.016) 24070 23973 24070 24001 23997 PROGRESS -.266 -.096 -.265 o -.147 -.102 o CM o o o q (809)99^ ^675 (.698) 2675 2797* 2792 2797 2794 p792 PESTICIDES ENDANGER ENVIRON. CM CO .057 .085 q .094 .837 (N 00 o 8 00 CO CD 00 C75 983 (.563) 2671 (.649) 2798 2793 (.815) 2798 2795 2792 (.360) z o LU ^ ii s .064 .159 CO q 5 q .529 O O O 2724 2704 976 (.239) 980(581) 2692 2813 2807 2813* 2810* 2807 PESTICIDES ENDANGER FAMILY 1.104 o q .056 .064 .083 8 q 2715 2813 2678 o CD <75 05 00 o 00 <35 2660 (.448) 2787 o z CM CM CM 2783* 2781 (.373) GIVE MONEY .737 !.058 o § q 2798 2979 2807 2797 C^ q o CM 24128 (.090) -.152 35284 1 O 00 CM 1 O 00 CM o 00 CM 2807 MEMBER .566 .233 .355 o o o o GO CN CO CNJ 2813 2719 2979 OO o 00 CM s q o 00 CM ^.119 1 2807(.797) o o 00 CM oT O q o 00 CM 2807 2807 PETITION 5 .176 o o o 2807 2807 2878 CO oo CM 2719 2797 2807(.703) o CO CM o 00 CM 2807 (.666) 2807 2807 (.006) 2807 2807 PROTEST .370 o o o 2719 2719 2719 2602 2615 2593 2610 o q 941 (.136) 2593 CO <35 CM 2713 2719(544) 2715* 2713 X LU Q z 1.000 2719 2719 2719 2719 2593 2615 CM O CD CM 2610 00 q CO .05 941 2593 CD q <35 CM 2713 2719 2715 2713 1 INDEX PROTEST PETITION MEMBER GIVE MONEY PESTICIDES ENDANGER FAMILY WATER POLLUTION ENDANGERS FAMILY PESTICIDES ENDANGER ENVIRON. PROGRESS FAMILY LIFE FRIENDSHIPS TOO DIFFICULT SEX GE RACE EDUCATION ^OF CHILDREN CORRELATIONS ARE SIGNIFICANT AT BETTER THAN P = .01 UNLESS NOTED 44 ADRIENNE REDD reveal that the components are well-chosen, but interestingly some of the components do not have high correlations with one another, though they have correlations of .370, .566, .737 and .741 with the overall index. This indicates that activist behavior is a multi-dimensional phenomenon, which necessitates the construction of an index to be measured. For example, the self-reported characteristic of having protested for an envi- ronmental issue has a correlation of only .058 with that of having given money to an environmental group. In response to this observation, the researcher might argue that the young, perhaps not particularly wealthy, citizen may spend her time on a cause, but not have money to contribute. Conversely, others may make contributions without pub- licly protesting or being otherwise active in a cause. Because I have constructed (and tested) a relatively continuous dependent variable, I can then proceed with Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression analysis. Independent Variables: Five Types of Perceptions of Threat The analysis has a complex set of independent variables. They fall into three cat- egories. The first category encompasses the variables that operationalize five types of perception of threat. The first kind of threat is health risks or dangers to oneself and one’s family. Eight questions asked in the GSS in a special environmental module in 1993 and 1994 measured this kind of threat: Pl.l. Do you think that pollution of America’s rivers, lakes and streams is ... 5-point Likert with l=extremely dangerous fox you and your family plus “can’t choose,” “no answer” and “not applicable,” equaling 8, 9 and BK respectively. PL2. In general, do you think that pesticides and chemicals used in farming are. . . 5-point Likert with I=extremely dangerous for you and your family plus “can’t choose,” “no answer” and “not applicable,” equaling 8, 9 and BK respectively. PI .3. All pesticides used on food crops cause cancer in humans. 4-point Likert with highest agreement = 1 plus “can’t choose,” “no answer” and “not appli- cable,” equaling 8, 9 and BK respectively. PL4. Do you think that air pollution caused by cars is ... l=extremely dan- gerous for your family; 2=very dangerous for your family; 3=somewhat dan- gerous for your family; 4=not very dangerous for your family; 5=not dangerous at all for your family; 8=can’t choose; 9=no answer and BK=not applicable. PL5. In general, do you think that air pollution caused by industry ... 5-point Likert with l=extremely dangerous for your family plus “can’t choose,” “no answer” and “not applicable,” equaling 8, 9 and BK respectively. PREDICTING ACTIVIST BEHAVIOR 45 PI .6. Within the next ten years, how likely do you think it is that there will be a large increase in ill-health in America’s cities as a result of air pollution caused by cars? 5-point Likert with l=extremely dangerous plus can’t choose=8, no answer=9 and not applicable =BK. PI. 7. All man-made chemicals can cause cancer if you eat enough of them. 4- point Likert with highest agreement = 1 plus “can’t choose,” “no answer” and “not applicable,” equaling 8, 9 and BK respectively. PL 8. In general, do you think that nuclear power stations are ... 5 -point Likert with l=extremely dangerous for your family plus “can’t choose,” “no answer” and “not applicable,” equaling 8, 9 and BK respectively. The second type of perception of threat that it is possible to operationalize using the questions in the GSS is general concern about water pollution. Two questions measured this type of threat: P2.L Do you think that pollution of America’s rivers, lakes and streams is ... 5- point Likert with l=extremely dangerous for the environmen plus “can’t choose,” “no answer” and “not applicable,” equaling 8, 9 and BK respectively. P2.2. In general, do you think that pesticides and chemicals used in farming are... 5-point Likert with l=extremely dangerous for the environment ... plus “can’t choose,” “no answer” and “not applicable,” equaling 8, 9 and BK respectively. The third type of perception of threat is general concern about air pollution. Three questions measured this type of threat: P3. 1 . In general, do you think that air pollution caused by industry is . . . 5-point Likert with l=extremely dangerous for the environment plus “can’t choose,” “no answer” and “not applicable,” equaling 8, 9 and BK respectively. P3.2. In general, do you think that air pollution by cars is: 1. extremly danger- ous for the environment 2. Very dangerous 3. Somewhat dangerous 4. Not very dangerous 5. Not dangerous at all plus can’t choose = 8, no answer = 9 and not applicable = BK. P3.3. Cars are not really an important cause of air pollution in America. 4-point Likert with highest agreement = 1 plus “can’t choose,” “no answer” and “not applicable,” equaling 8, 9 and BK respectively. The fourth kind of perception of threat is from radiation. Four questions measured -this type of threat: 46 ADRIENNE REDD P4.1. Some radioactive waste from nuclear power plants will stay danger- ous for thousands of years. 4-point Likert with highest agreement = 1 plus “can’t choose,” “no answer” and “not applicable,” equaling 8, 9 and BK respectively. P4.2. If someone is exposed to any amount of radioactivity they are certain to die as a result. 4-point Likert with highest agreement = 1 plus “can’t choose,” “no answer” and “not applicable,” equaling 8, 9 and BK ! respectively. P4.3. In general, do you think that nuclear power stations are ... 5-point ' Likert with l=extremely dangerous for the environment plus “can’t choose,” “no answer” and “not applicable,” equaling 8, 9 and BK respectively. P4.4. All radioactivity is made by humans. 4-point Likert with highest agree- ment = 1 plus “can’t choose,” “no answer” and “not applicable,” equaling 8, 9 and BK respectively. The fifth and final type of perceived threat is general concern for nature. Six > questions measured this type of concern. P5.1. Human beings are the main cause of plant and animal species dying out. 4-point Likert with highest agreement = 1 plus “can’t choose,” “no answer” and “not applicable,” equaling 8, 9 and BK respectively. * P5.2. Any change humans cause in nature — no matter how scientific — is likely to make things worse. l=strongly agree; 2=agree; 3=neither agree nor disagree; 4=disagree; 5=strongly disagree; 8=can’t choose; 9=no answer and BK=not applicable. P5.3. We worry too much about the future of the environment, and not enough | about price and jobs today. l=strongly agree; 2=agree; 3=neither agree nor i disagree; 4=disagree; 5=strongly disagree; 8=can’t choose; 9=no answer and BK=not applicable. I P5 .4. Almost everything we do in modem life harms the environment. 1 =strongly i agree; 2=agree; 3=neither agree nor disagree; 4=disagree; 5=strongly disagree; jj ^ 8=can’t choose; 9=no answer and BK=not applicable. ^ P5.5. People worry too much about human progress harming the environment. 1 1 =strongly agree; 2=agree; 3=neither agree nor disagree; 4=disagree; 5=strongly i j| disagree; 8=can’t choose; 9=no answer and BK=not applicable. i, ^ ■d PREDICTING ACTIVIST BEHAVIOR 47 P5.6. Nature would be at peace and harmony if only humans would leave it alone. l=strongly agree; 2=agree; 3=neither agree nor disagree; 4=disagree; 5=strongly disagree; 8=can’t choose; 9=no answer and BK=not applicable. These variables are particularly valuable because some pairs of variables are iden- tically worded with the only change being that the phrase “dangerous for you and your family (italics mine) is replaced with “dangerous for the environment.” Independent Variables: Two Psychological Predispositions The next category of independent variable is psychological predispositions. Because the variables comprising the two dependent variables of activist behavior was only asked in 1993 and 1994, only empowerment and dissatisfaction with life could be tested as factors leading to attitudes about the environment and activist behavior, although there were related questions asked in other years. The psy- chological factor of empowerment was measured with the response to the statement: Dl. It is just too difficult for someone like me to do much about the environ- ment. l=strongly agree; 2=agree; 3=neither agree nor disagree; 4=disagree; 5=strongly disagree; 8=can’t choose; 9=no answer and BK=not applicable. The two questions used to test dissatisfaction refer to friendships and family life: D2. Tell me the number that shows how much satisfaction you get from your family life. l=a very great deal, 2= a great deal, 3=quite a bit, 4=a fair amount, 5=some, 6=a little, 7=none, 8=don’t know, 9=now answer, BK=not applicable D3. For each area of life I am going to name, tell me the number that shows how much satisfaction you get from that area: your friendships. l=very great deal, 2=a great deal, 3=quite a bit, 4=a fair amount, 5-some, 6=a little, 7=none, 8=don’t know, 9=no answer and BK=not applicable. The operationalization of dissatisfaction in this analysis is slightly problematic because the meaning of dissatisfaction differs as used by various writers. When Hoffer (1951) posits that dissatisfaction is a characteristic of people who enter mass move- ments, he means that they consider their lives generally unfullfilled and they turn to the excitement and sense of purpose that collective action can offer. Conversely, when Lee (1997) writes that people experience cynicism and dissatisfaction, she implies that they see injustice and unethical social situations and are therefore motivated to protest against them. The questions in the GSS about satisfaction with friendship and family life have 48 ADRIENNE REDD the closest affinity to Hoffer’s meaning of the term, and may even reflect the restless- ness or need for a purpose that is implied in Lee’s analysis. They do not encompass a si sense of anxiety about environmental problems or outrage at injustice. When Kowalewski b ( 1 995) and other authors writing specifically about environmental activism refer to dis- t satisfaction they imply that it is selfish dissatisfaction. Something is specifically wrong n in the activist’s world and he or she is motivated to change it. The variation in this 1 operationalization is one of the threats to validity in this analysis. n V Independent Variables: Eight Demographic Characteristics The demographic variables used in the analysis are education, sex, age, race, num- ber of children, household income in 1991, labor force status, community type. I d p Addressing the Issue of Nonresponses ! The first step in this analysis, which employs the software entitled Statistical Pack- ages for the Social Sciences (SPSS), was to construct an index of the dependent vari- i | able. There are four questions in the GSS that measure activist behavior. They ask whether | ^ a respondent has participated in an environmental protest, whether he or she has signed | a petition concerning an environmental issue, whether he or she has been a member of y an environmental organization and whether he or she has contributed financially to an ^ environmental group. ^ However, before constructing the index of the dependent variable, it was necessary | to account for nonresponses in the four questions making up the index of activism. Nonetheless, for the two years that include the variables, there are, respectively, only 2 ^ responses missing for 2719 the question was asked, 3 out of 2807, 64 out of 2879 and 2 j out of 2724 for grndemo, grnsign, grngroup and grnmoney. It seems that these are j questions which people seem to understand and to which they seem to respond with j relative willingness; there are sufficiently few missing responses to support the assump- , tion that even if non-responses occurred in some systematic way, that there are too few j missing responses to skew the data. I The response rates for the GSS are 82% in 1993 and 78% in 1994. The response I ^ rate for individual rotating questions is only given in the codebook as valid cases in the : j years asked versus the missing cases due to non-response/missing data combined with i j the missing data from all the years the questions was not asked, so that the question i ^ about pesticides being dangerous for the environment, for example, appears as: valid i ^ cases = 2798; missing cases = 32486. This does not allow accurate calculation of the | actual response rate for that specific question. The number of valid cases for the vari- ; ^ ables used here ranges from about 2600 to almost 2900 responses. PREDICTING ACTIVIST BEHAVIOR 49 V S' It was necessary, however, to remove non-responses to a key question (and to a simultaneously remove the cases not interviewed in 1993 and 1994). This was done ^ by assigning the dependent index (index_b) to have a value of system missing if S' ! the response was missing for the questions about having participated in an envi- g ronmental demonstration (grndemo). The reasons for choosing this variable are IS 1) having participated in an environmental protest is a crucial behavioral determi- nant of activist status and 2) it is the component which had the smallest number of valid cases. i. Results ' The first hypothesis (H^), that unpacking perception of threat to health into five dimensions of perception of threat would increase the explanatory power of a multiple regression model is only slightly supported in the in regression model. The second hypothesis (H^), that the addition of two psychological characteristics of the potential activist, empowerment and dissatisfaction with family life would simi- ■ i larly increase the explanatory power of a multiple regression model was supported for ^ both psychological dispositions. ^ The third hypothesis (H ), that education, sex, age, race, number of children, house- f i ^ I hold income, labor force status and community type would paint a portrait of the ^ modal activist was supported for some demographic characteristics, but not for others, i Adding the control variables did contribute to the explanatory power (R^) of the y I final model. ' ! TABLE 3. shows three models of activist behavior regressed on perceptions of threat, ^ two types of life satisfaction and empowerment with demographic control variables: (education, sex, age, race and number of children) it is apparent that the variable with i the single greatest influence on activist behavior in the final regression model (and in I the other models) is education and, as such, merits further analysis. I investigated this influence of education by dichotomizing the activist index I into activists and non-activists and trichotomizing education into three levels: 1) having fewer than nine years of education 2) having some high school or a high ! school degree and 3) having some college or a four-year degree or better. The cross- ^ tabulation showed that not a single one of the 159 respondents designated as activ- ists in this analysis had fewer than nine years of school (and as cross-tabular analysis showed with the uncollapsed education variable, only nine had less than a high school education). As TABLE 4 shows, 77.4 percent had some college or better. (See appendix for Table 4. Cross-tabulation of collapsed education variable BY COLLAPSED ACTIVISM INDEX). 50 ADRIENNE REDD TABLE 3. ACTIVIST BEHAVIOR REGRESSED ON PERCEPTIONS OF THREAT, LIFE SATISFACTION & EMPOWERMENT; ^ CONTROLLING FOR EDUCATION, SEX, AGE, RACE AND NUMBER OF CHILDREN model 1 model 2 model 3 demographic perceptions of with perceptions of portrait threat, concern for threat, concern for environment and the environment. demographic psychological characteristics factors and demographic characteristics perceptions of threat beta p-value beta p-value beta p-value disagreement that pesticides used in farming are dangerous for oneself and one's family -.052 .150 -.162 .006 : opinion that pollution of rivers, lakes and streams is dangerous for oneself & one's family opinion that pesticides used in farming are dangerous for the environment .078 .001 .059 .130 1 .132 .000 .203 .000 general concern for the environment disagreement with statement that society worries too much about progress harming the environment -.192 .000 -.132 .000 psychological characteristics satisfaction with family life -.069 .064 satisfaction with friendships .107 .004 empowerment -.093 .012 control variables education -.249 .000 -.224 .000 -.218 .000 sex -.056 .003 -.028 .145 -.071 .034 age .006 .002 .047 .015 .027 .433 race number of children .059 .765 -.019 .362 .006 .871 .037 .076 .019 .360 .007 .840 R'ad, .074 13.7 14.2 number of cases (N) (2709) (2436) (817) Model three of the regression analysis, which combines demographic characteris- tics with perceptions of threat and concern for the environment uses four variables whose contribution is not statistically significant, but the dramatic value of this model I is nonetheless that when the two clusters of variables (perception of threat and demo- i graphic characteristics) are combined the explanatory power of the model catapults up j to 13.7 percent, though the two sets of demographic and perception of threat variables individually only explains less than one percent of the variance in activist behavior. This interaction says something important about considering perceptions of threat and concern for environment along with demographic characteristics The fifth and final model uses nine variables to explain activist behavior. The final multiple regression model showed that opinion that pollution of rivers, lakes and streams is dangerous /or oneself & one’s family and the opinion that pesticides used in farming are | dangerous for the environment did play an explanatory role in the phenomenon of activism. Disagreement that pesticides used in farming are dangerous for oneself and one’s family was also a factor, as discussed above. And general concern for the environment was reflected in disagreement with the statement that society worries too much about progress PREDICTING ACTIVIST BEHAVIOR 51 harming the environment. In order of their beta weights, the values of the nine statistically significant variables that explain activist behavior are: agreeing that pesticides used in farm- ing are dangerous for the environment, disagreeing with statement that pesticides used in farming are dangerous for oneself and one’s family, disagreeing with statement that society worries too much about progress harming the environment, being dissatisfied with friend- ships, empowerment or disagreeing with statement: It is just too difficult for someone like me to do much about the environment, being female, being dissatisfied with family life and having the opinion that pollution of rivers, lakes and streams is dangerous for oneself and one’s family. Chart 1 is a bar chart of the beta weights of the nine variables in the final model. Although their beta weights are relatively small, the model does support the findings Chart 1. beta weights for nine independent variables explaining activist behavior .218 .201 .163 .134 .110 .098 .071 .070 .064 being better educated having the opinion that that pesticides used in farming are dangerous for the environment disagreeing with statement that ail pesticides used in farming are dangerous for oneself and one's family disagreeing with statement that society worries too much about progress harming the environment being dissatisfied with friendships empowerment or disagreeing with statement: It is just too difficult for someone like me to do much about the environment being female being dissatisfied with family life having the opinion that pollution of rivers, lakes and streams is dangerous for oneself & one's family DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS ATTITUDINAL FACTORS PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS 52 ADRIENNE REDD of earlier research that a dimension of dissatisfaction, dissatisfaction with family life, is an if explanatory factor in environmental activism and this is in comparision with satisfaction with friendships, with which the activist expresses satisfaction. p The greatest disappointment of this research was that the high degree of explana- fi tory power from breaking out dimensions of perception of environmental threat did not | s materialize. The GSS is adequate to operationalize activism, and (at least) five dimen- sions of perception of risk and the two psychological (as well as demographic vari- ables) the eight variables measuring perception of health risks or dangers to oneself and ' one’s family, the two measuring perception of threat from water pollution, the three ^ measuring perception of threat from air pollution, the four measuring perception of I s threat from radiation and these six variables measuring a sense of general concern fori t the environment, but in combination with other theoretically important variables, only | < CHEMFAM, WATERFAM, CHEMGEN and GRNPROG ultimately made a significant contribution to ‘ ( a model explaining activist behavior and that inclusion showed disagreement that pes- i ! ticides used in farming are dangerous for oneself and one’s family was an explanatory 1 factor for activism, not agreement. Please see the chart of beta weights of independent variables. Disagreeing with state- ment that all pesticides used in farming are dangerous for oneself and one’s family is included as a variable that is included in the final model. This is because the contribution of Ij variables such this one — gmtest5^ and also scitest5^ — which expressed a panicked or mis- informed environmental worry, consistently had coefficients reflecting that activist respon- dents were more likely to disagree with these statements. (Please see the full text of some questions regarding perception of threat about radioactivity. These also have the potential to i reflect misinformed environmental worry. Disagreeing with statements reflecting misin- formed environmental worry is consistent with the finding that environmental activists are more likely to be well-educated as well as with the idea that environmental activists are not i wildly fearful of all potential threats, but focussed and specific in their perception of danger to themselves and their families and to the environment in general. This discovery that ! respondents who reported a perception of threat to some environmental problems did not i perceive threats in other realms led to the decision to retain in the final model a variable j measuring disagreement that all pesticides used in fanning are dangerous for oneself and i one’s family. The middle class and well-educated activist may also be aware of the danger r to others or to the environment in general of pesticides used in farming, but does not feel I that it specifically threatens his or her family. ! Demographic Characteristics The regression analysis also tested (in various models with various combinations of ! measures of perception of threat) the explanatory power of the set of eight demographic i variables suggested by the literature: education, sex, age, race, number of children. PREDICTING ACTIVIST BEHAVIOR 53 i! income, work status and community type. The question of whether it is possible to li describe, as the literature suggests, a typical North American environmental activist proceeded from there. Cross-tabular analysis shows that the activists responding in this ■ data set were more likely to be well educated. Chart 1, the chart of beta weights, also 1 shows that this was the most powerful predictive factor for activist behavior. (See appendix for Table 4. Cross-tabulation of collapsed education variable by col- lapsed activism index). The analysis shows that activists are most likely to be between the ages of 29 and ! 45 (in 1993 and 1994). The only other demographic variable that was substantive and significant in the final regression model was sex, showing that activists are more likely to be female. Age, however, was significant in models (1), 3 and 4 of the regression analysis and seem to show that the younger a respondent is, the more likely it is that he or she will become an environmental activist. This is misleading, however. The vari- , ables for both the age and the number of children (childs) (below) violate assumption four of Ordinary Least Squares regression, because they do not have a linear relation- ship with activist behavior. Furthermore the correlation between index_b, the index of activist behavior and age is only .074 and the absolute value of the beta coefficient for activists’ behavior and age in model 4 is only .027. Cross-tabular analysis is necessary i to clarify the role of age in predicting or explaining activist behavior. If I dichotomize index_b, the index of activist behavior, I can clarify this non-linear relationship and see that more than half of the activists in the sample (54.4%) are between the ages of 29 and 45 and there is more than a 10 percent difference from the non-activists in the same age bracket. The next most likely activists are respondents ! older than 45 and the least likely is respondents between the ages of 1 8 and 28. It is this I cohort of people bom roughly between 1948 and 1964 who are shown to be the most active in this analysis. Table 8. crosstabulation of collapsed age variable by collapsed activism index (ACTIV2) AGE ACTIVISTS NON-ACTIVISTS Total 1.00 2.00 AGED 18 TO 28 Count 20 435 455 % within ACTIV2 12.7% 17.0% 16.8% AGED 29 TO 45 Count 86 1003 1089 % within ACTIV2 54.4% 39.3% 40.1% OLDER THAN 45 Count 52 1117 1169 % within ACTIV2 32.9% 43.7% 43.1% Total Count 158 2555 2713 % within ACTIV2 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% i 54 ADRIENNE REDD Though it seems to indicate that activists are more likely to be white, the variable of race is significant in none of the five regression models. This probably due to the fact , that there are only 12 non- white activists in the sample. Table 9. crosstabulation of race of respondent by collapsed activism index (ACTIV2) ACTIV2 Total 1.00 2.00 RACE OF RESPONDENT WHITE Count 147 2123 2270 % within ACTIV2 92.5% 82.9% 83.5% BLACK Count 8 315 323 % within ACTIV2 5.0% 12.3% 1 1 .9% OTHER Count 4 122 126 % within ACTIV2 2.5% 4.8% 4.6% Total Count 159 2560 2719 % within ACTIV2 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% According to cross-tabular analysis, the activists in this sample seemed more likely to be white. Like the variable of age, the number of children has a non-linear relationshp with activist status. Unlike age, the number of children is not significant or elucidating in the final regression analysis. However, crosstabular analysis shows that people who have one or two children are the most likely to become environmental activists. Table 10. crosstabulation of collapsed variable for number of children (CHLD1_2) BY RESPONDENT BY COLLAPSED ACTIVISM INDEX (ACTIV2) ACTIVISTS NON-ACTIVISTS Total RESPONDENT HAS NO CHILDREN Count 58 710 768 % within ACTIV2 36.5% 27.8% 28.3% ONE OR TWO CHILDREN Count 79 1082 1161 % within ACTIV2 49.7% 42.4% 42.8% THREE OR MORE CHILDREN Count 22 762 784 % within ACTIV2 13.8% 29.8% 28.9% Total Count 159 2554 2713 % within ACTIV2 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% V PREDICTING ACTIVIST BEHAVIOR 55 Activists in this sample seemed more likely to have a middle-class or upper middle class household income. There were 151 respondents with activist status who also answered the question about their total household income in 1991 (and , 2330 non-activists answered for a combined N of 2481). Total household income in 1991 (income91) fell out of the regression models, but crosstabular analysis I shows that respondents reporting middle class to upper middle class income were more likely to be activists. Nearly half or 46.4% of the 151 respondents had a total household income of $50,000 or more (compared with only 24% of the non-activ- : ists in that income bracket). In fact, cross-tabulation with the uncollapsed income variable showed that fully 24.5% of the activists had incomes of $75,000 or more, compared with less than 10% of the non-activists. Table 11 . crosstabulation of collapsed variable total family income in 1991 (INCOME91) BY COLLAPSED ACTIVISM INDEX (ACTIV2) ACTIV2 Total activists non-activists Less than $1000 to 14,999 Count 16 564 580 % within ACTIV2 10.6% 24.2% $15,000 to 24,999 Count 18 434 452 % within ACTIV2 1 1 .9% 18.6% $25,000 to 49,999 Count 47 772 819 % within ACTIV2 31% 33% $50,000 to $75,000 Count 70 560 630 % within ACTIV2 46.4% 24% Total 151 2330 2481 Activists in this sample seemed more likely to work fulltime or part-time (rather than keeping house). Surprisingly, although the typical environmental activist in this data set is white, suburban and middle class, she is not a housewife. Cross- tabular analysis shows that the activist as defined here is more likely to be working fulltime (or parttime) and is less likely to be keeping house. However, there is not a ten percent difference between any of the activists and non-activists and, as is the case for community type (below), collapsing the categories of work status may muddy what can be said about the influence of a particular labor force status on activist behavior. 56 ADRIENNE REDD Table 12. crosstabulation of labor force status (wrkstat) by collapsed activism INDEX ACTIVISTS NON-ACTIVISTS total WORKING FULLTIME Count 97 1339 1436 % within ACTIV2 61.0% 52.3% 52.8% WORKING PARTTIME Count 20 280 300 % within ACTIV2 12.6% 10.9% 11.0% TEMP NOT WORKING Count 3 58 61 % within ACTIV2 1 .9% 2.3% 2.2% UNEMPL, LAID OFF Count 6 78 84 % within ACTIV2 3.8% 3.0% 3.1% RETIRED Count 14 349 363 % within ACTIV2 8.8% 13.6% 13.4% SCHOOL Count 4 74 78 % within ACTIV2 2.5% 2.9% 2.9% KEEPING HOUSE Count 13 331 344 % within ACTIV2 8.2% 12.9% 12.7% OTHER Count 2 51 53 % within ACTIV2 1.3% 2.0% 1.9% Count 159 2560 2719 % within ACTIV2 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% The type of community was not a conclusive contributing factor. Although Kowalewski found activism to be more prevelant in rural areas, cross-tabular analysis of this data set did not find substantive trends for community type as a variable influencing activist behavior. A third of the activist respondents live in suburbs, but there is only an eight percent difference with the non-activists and not other clear trends. It might be possible to collapse two or more of these six community types, but then one gets into issues of combining community types that are not i culturally similar. Table 13. crosstabulation of community type (comtype) by collapsed ACTIVISM INDEX TYPE OF COMMUNITY ACTIVISTS NON-ACTIVISTS BIG CITY 20.3% (31) 18.9% (477) 19.0% (508) SUBURBS or OUTSKIRTS 33.3% (51) 25.2% (634) 25.6% (685) SMALL TOWN 34.0% (52) 39.9% (1006) 39.6% (1058) COUNTRY VILLAGE 2.0%(3) 4.3% (108) 4.2% (111) (FARM or COUNTRY HOME 10.5%(16) 11.7% (295) 11.6% (311) 100.0% (153) 100.0% (2520) 100.0% (2673) PREDICTING ACTIVIST BEHAVIOR 57 Discussion At its core, this analysis aims for an individual explanation for why people express- ing similar attitudes and living in similar environments respond differently. Which fac- tors are the most important in stimulating action? Why does one person take action publicly when another does not? Such research into activism is critically important to the entire field of sociology (and its cousins, social psychology, management theory, political science, etc.) because it raises several questions that go to the heart of why individuals function in groups and in society the way they do. How can our understand- ing of agency and structural factors be integrated into a theory of behavior? What rules apply at the individual level? What rules apply in a theory of collective action at the micro, meso and macro levels? The principal success of the analysis is that it uses a large sample size from a highly reliable and respected data set to corroborate the trigger effect of perception of threat in activist behavior and to greatly increase the explanatory power of a model including four dimensions of perception of environmental threat (or concern for the environment). It is also exciting to see a clearer and more specific test of the psychological factors dissatisfaction with family life, in contrast with satisfaction with friendships and in combination with empowerment. The principal shortcoming of the analysis is that more dimensions of perception of threat could not be included in the final model and that only education and age were significant in the final regression. Relevant to the fourth assumption of the hypotheses section, this analysis depends on taking a complex set of causal factors together and in doing so, it pushes the limits of statistical analysis. Flaws of the Analysis Notably missing from the index operationalizing activism is communication with other citizens, to officials and to the press. The GSS contains questions about having spoken publicly about issues as well as hypothetical questions about speaking publicly, but they were not asked in 1993 or 1994 (nor do they specifically deal with environmen- tal issues). These four responses are adequate because they deal with behavior, not merely additudes and they are simple measures of that behavior which respondents can readily report, therefore the researcher asserts that there is a strong internal validity. Although the operationalization of activism and measurement of types of environ- i mental concern possible with the GSS were satisfactory, some factors measured by other authors could not be included because the questions measuring activist behaviors I were only asked in 1993 and 1994. Therefore questions to be used had to have been ' asked in those same years. Both Lee and Sequin et al. include readership of newpapers ; and other information sources and the question about reading the newspaper was not ij asked in 1993 or 1994. 58 ADRIENNE REDD Kowalewski and Sequin et al. also include voting as either a predictive factor or a component of activist behavior and having voted should be integrated with the factors examined here in future analyses. Future Research Although the variables in the General Social Survey offered highly satisfactory internal validity, this analysis does suggest the need for a tailored survey with a better operationalization of the full and complex set of psychological factors which may be h predispositions to activist behavior. Furthermore, although GSS is adequate to differen- ^ date between activists and non-activists, it does not afford a sufficiently fine grain to differentiate among elite activists, citizen activists and ordinary citizens, three categories (Flacks 1970) in which the psychological characteristics may be markedly different. : Preliminary work for this analysis suggested that it may be fruitful to examine the explanatory factors analyzed here plus the characteristic of having voted in the 1992 election plus attitudes about trust or lack thereof toward the government in a combined model to predict or explain activist behavior versus mere positive attitudes toward the environment. Third, people can hold certain beliefs, which, as sociologists we can attempt to operationalize and measure, but how do such beliefs lead to action? For example, what are the most salient attributes in explaining the emergence of activist behavior. Further research is suggested into the link between environmental attitudes and environmental activism. The insight into psychological predispositions for activism begun here may lead to a breakthrough in understanding how external circumstances plus attitudes plus demographic characteristics plus psychological characteristics lead to concrete actions in the social sphere. * Though this research seems to describe an average or typical activist, there seems to be no modal activist. Similarly, the influence of various demographic characteristics in the activists: being educated, female, more likely to be between the ages of 29 and 45, J white, more likely to have one or two children, have a middle class or better household 1 income, work outside the home and live in a small town or in the suburbs is supported l| in crosstabular analysis, but the fact that these variables are not significant in regression ij analysis shows that activists do not belong to one homogeneous group, but slightly overlapping groups that comprise activists. In addition, further analysis of this data set may I disprove the idea of a “unified field theory” of activism. People may, in fact, become :|| activists for different reasons and there are different though overlapping demographic ;|| groups and groups with psychological dispositions or perceptions who become activ- 1 ists. 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All pesticides used on food crops cause cancer in humans. 4-point Likert with highest agreement = 1 plus “can’t choose,” “no answer” and “not applicable,” equaling 8, 9 and BK respectively. 3. All man-made chemicals can cause cancer if you eat enough of them. 4-point Likert with highest agreement = 1 plus “can’t choose,” “no answer” and “not applicable,” equaling 8, 9 and BK respectively. 62 ADRIENNE REDD Appendices: See the body of the text for: TABLE lA. UNIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE AND TYPES OF PERCEPTION OF THREAT TABLE IB. UNIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES TABLE 2. CORRELATIONS FOR ACTIVIST INDEX, ITS 4 COMPONENTS & 12 INDEPENDENT VARIABLES TABLE 3. ACTIVIST BEHAVIOR REGRESSED ON PERCEPTIONS OF THREAT, LIFE SATISFACTION & EMPOWERMENT; CONTROLLING FOR SEX & EDUCATION Table 4. Crosstabulation of collapsed education variable by collapsed activism INDEX (ACTIV2) ACTIVISTS NON-ACTIVISTS Total FEWER THAN NINE YEARS OF EDUCATION Count 183 183 % within ACTIV2 7.2% 6.7% SOME HIGH SCHOOL OR A HIGH SCHOOL EDUCATION Count 36 1104 1140 % within ACTIV2 22.6% 43.2% 42.0% SOME COLLEGE OR A COLLEGE DEGREE OR BETTER Count 123 1269 1392 % within ACTIV2 77.4% 49.6% 51.3% Total Count 159 2556 2715 % within ACTIV2 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% PREDICTING ACTIVIST BEHAVIOR 63 Table 5. univariate analysis of the index measuring activist behavior* Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent Valid 4.00 25 .1 .9 .9 5.00 134 .4 4.9 5.8 6.00 455 1.3 16.7 22.6 7.00 964 2.7 35.5 58.0 8.00 1141 3.2 42.0 100.0 Total 2719 7.7 100.0 Missing System 32565 92.3 Total 35284 100.0 *See also the discussion of the dependent variable under the section on measurement and methods. Table 6. Pearson Correlations of the components of the activist index INDEX_B PROTESTED FOR ENVIR ISSUE SIGN PETITION ON ENVIR ISSUE MEMBER OF ENVIR GROUP GIVE MONEY TO ENVIR GROUP INDEX B 1.000 .370 .741 .566 .737 PROTESTED FOR ENVIR ISSUE .370 1.000 .176 .233 .058 SIGN PETITION ON ENVIR ISSUE 1.000 .355 .494 MEMBER OF ENVIR GROUP 1.000 .301 GIVE MONEY TO ENVIR GROUP 1.000 64 ADRIENNE REDD TABLE 7. ACTIVIST BEHAVIOR REGRESSED ON PERCEPTIONS OF THREAT, LIFE SATISFACTION & EMPOWERMENT; CONTROLLING FOR SEX & EDUCATION model 1 model 2 model 3 model 4 demographic perceptions of saturated model with significant portrait threat, concern with variables only for environment perceptions of and threat, concern demographic for the characteristics environment. psychological factors and demographic characteristics perceptions of threat beta p-value beta p-value beta p-value beta p-value disagreement that pesticides used in farming are dangerous for oneself and one's family -.052 .150 -.162 .006 -.163 .005 opinion that pollution of rivers, lakes and streams is dangerous for oneself & one's family .078 .001 .059 .130 .064 .095 opinion that pesticides used in farming are dangerous for the environment .132 .000 .203 .000 .201 .000 general concern for the environment disagreement with statement that society worries too much about progress harming the environment -.192 .000 -.132 .000 -.134 .000 psychological characteristics satisfaction with family life -.069 .064 -.070 .054 satisfaction with friendships .107 .004 .110 .002 empowerment -.093 .012 -.098 .007 control variables education -.249 .000 -.224 .000 -.218 .000 -.218 .000 sex -.056 .003 -.028 .145 -.071 .034 -.071 .033 age .006 .002 .047 .015 .027 .433 race number of children .059 .037 .765 .076 -.019 .019 .362 .360 .006 .007 .871 .840 R'adi .074 13.7 14.2 14.4 number of cases (N) (2709) (2436) (817) (817) 'a Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences, Volume 89, Number 1 & 2, 65-76, Spring/Summer 2003 The Poetic Brain: Neuroscience and Myth in the Poetry of Louise Labe and Pierre de Ronsard Christine Clark-Evans Department of French Pennsylvania State University University Park, Pennsylvania Abstract Today’s neurosciences have long roots in early modem history, medicine, and culture. This study examines the invasion of sixteenth-century French poetry by the ideas and controver- sies about human neural anatomy, physiology, and psychology. It concentrates on two poets who differ from each other in gender, philosophical outlook, historical context, and writing style. Louise Labe’s Oeuvres (1555) often evoke her female beloved, the male lover, and their psychology of love in terms of the intellect, passions, and affections of the brain. She extends her psychological theories to show how Platonic love between women and men results in creative writing. Pierre de Ronsard, especially in his Amours, (1552-1578) expresses the profound effect of love on his subjective reality when he experiences changes in his spiritus, heart, mind, and soul, all component parts of early modem metaphysics and medicine. But at the same time he denounces in his Discours (1560-1587) Protestant doc- tors, whom he considers disloyal, with parodic metaphors taken from their own medicine. The study finds that in the poetry the brain represents human mental, intellectual, and psy- chological faculties, individual and collective value, and even one’s humanity as a whole. Today’s neurosciences have long and sinuous roots in early modern history, medi- cine, and culture, much of which centered on debates like Vesalius’s critique of the Galenic brain in De humani corporis fabrica (1543). This study examines the invasion of sixteenth-century French poetry by the ideas and controversies about human neural anatomy, physiology, and psychology as found in the writings of two poets, Louise Labe and Pierre de Ronsard, who differ from each other in gender, philosophical out- look, historical context, and writing style. While previous studies have attempted to prove the scientific or proto-scientific origins of particular ideas in poetry by medical and clerical scholars, or to examine the use of medical rhetoric in creative writing, both legitimate objects of study, they are included only as part of the objective for the present study. This investigation attempts moreover to place these authors within the intellec- tual history of Western concepts of the brain and nervous system. 66 CHRISTINE CLARK-EVANS First, Louise Labe’s Oeuvres (1555) evoke the female lover, her male beloved, and the psychology of their love, which are often seamlessly expressed within her I four major works in terms of the intellect, passions, and affections of the brain. She also intermingles the psychological theories in the prose Debat de Folie et d' Amour | and her Epistre to Mademoiselle Clemence de Bourges into her poetic Sonnets and Elegies to show how Platonic love, including the love between women and men in the Neo-Platonist tradition, results in creative writing. Second, Pierre de Ronsard, especially in the nine principal editions of his Amours (1552-1584), shows the pro- found effect of love on his subjective reality when he experiences changes in his I ' spirit, heart, mind, soul, and brain, all component parts of early modem metaphysics f and medicine. t This study contributes to intellectual history as evidenced in the works of these two ^ poets about the importance that has been placed on the brain as the organ, origin, and ^ locus in the body for thought, emotions, and movement in early modern French litera- ^ ture and culture. It finds in these and other works that the brain in early modem French ^ poetry represents human mental, intellectual, and psychological faculties, individual ' and collective value, and even one’s humanity as a whole. While the debates over the Galenic versus the Vesalian brain raged in the mid six- j teenth century, for most non-medical readers the brain and nervous system had been accepted in medieval psychology as the location of both the soul and its sensory and ! cognitive faculties. On this topic medieval anatomists and physiologists tended to fol- ‘ low Galen rather than Aristotle, who had placed these faculties in the heart and who had * considered the soul to be “the place of forms.”* Galen’s soul was clearly located in the ‘ brain itself, and, in his view, the spirit filled the ventricles of the brain and had the ‘ ventricles operating as the spirit’s instrument or conduit. i ' While Galen’s anatomy had been the medical model, it apparently was overtaken in I the Middle Ages by modifications of his theories on the inner senses or faculties, such ' as Avicenna’s system of five faculties: the common sense (sensus communis), the imagi- nation (imaginatio), the cogitative faculty (imaginativa or cogitativa), the estimative 1 faculty or instinct (aestimativa), and the memory.^ ' The result is that, within the bounds of the accord that had to be struck between i | Christian theology and any such medical theories, medieval scholars viewed what today’s experts call cognition, including memory, as processes that occur both through ini! ' termediary physiological mechanisms of the cerebral ventricles and through those : operations that take place in the soul or mind.^ Through the sixteenth century, debates i ' about the brain and nervous system continued in medical theory. French poets, though unevenly knowledgeable about what scholars and university trained physicians argued, ' were committed to enriching their verse with encyclopedic knowledge about the natural world, especially after the admonitions about the necessity of learning the arts and sciences in La deffence et illustration de la langue Frangaise (1549). The THE POETIC BRAIN 67 1, ^ resulting poetic works contributed to a more widespread literary expression of their [ f own interpretations of medical theories and scientific ideas about how we perceive, e think, feel, and move. f In the Oeuvres (1555), Louise Labe reveals a psychology of Platonic love in which i the female lover and her male beloved are dmes-soeurs, soul-mates, who are united in a n love whose prodigious psychological effect can be seen and represented in poetic terms. In her four major works she extends a set of psychological theories about love and writing expressed especially in Discourse V of her Debat de Folie et d’ Amour to I include a treatise on love and folly which describes their role in individual and group psychology with particular attention to their effect on the intellect, passions, and affec- tions of the brain. In a reversal of Christine de Pizan’s evolution from fiction and imagi- native poetry to more serious philosophical prose treatises, Louise Labe’s writings shift from poetry to prose."^ Labe’s writings change from the wide ranging theoretical de- bates in the dialogue form of the Debat, and in her letter, the Epistre addressed to Clemence de Bourges, both in prose, and evolve into a dazzling, creative, and persua- sive poetry in the Sonnets and the Elegies. Mixed Metaphysics: The Case for Love The Debat de Folie et d’ Amour, The Debate between Folly and Love, is structured I as a forensic debate for Jupiter to sit in judgment over whether Folly or Love should I have had priority when entering the palace of the gods for a great feast. Its premise is to ! seek a juridical resolution to the altercation in which Folly blinded Cupid, who had I dared to enter before her, and then she permanently banded the eyes of the little god of Love. As allegorical figures, Apollo and Cupid, here called Love, represent the distinct personalities attributed to them as Greco-Roman divinities and the consequences in the behaviors that they can inspire and guide in humans. Apollo, god of prophecy, medicine, music, and poetry and known for art, philoso- phy, and learning, is a proper defender of Love in a Platonic or Neo-Platonic perspec- I tive on the joined episteme of the couple in love. In the trial, Apollo defended Love and : all that Love had done for human history in front of Jupiter and the hall of divine guests. In Discourse V Apollo waxes into serious philosophical discourse on Love’s contribu- I tion to humanity as both that collective love in the form of human sociability and affin- ity for the society of other human beings and the special, particular love that individuals I have for one another. The Troubled Brain: The Case for Folly Following Apollo’s almost melodic and eloquent defense of Love, emphasizing its unity and harmony and showing the mood altering affections and the soul-transforming psychology that Love inspires, in the name of fairness. Mercury is called to defend 68 CHRISTINE CLARK-EVANS Folly against the tide of accusations in the great hall of paradise. The opposing sides I of the debate continue to show the distinct personalities of mythological divinities and | [ the corresponding psychology of those persons under their influence. Mercury, god of s travelers, luck, music, and eloquence and known for wit and invention, is Folly’s advo- ( cate, and Folly is the newly iconized personification of creativity, joy, and laughter in i Erasmus’s In Praise of Folly (1509). They become rhetorical figures for the set of ideas ^1 ' they espouse in the dialogue. i Mercury’s seemingly rapid-fire discourse, quite consistent with his metaphorical and philosophical nature and personality, is based on Stoic metaphysics, ancient and medieval theoretical medicine, and empirical demonstrations in logic of Folly’s work on the affections, the passions, and the brain. By nature more precipitous and hasty than Cupid (“plus pronte et hative”^ Folly is reportedly endowed with an older provenance than Love, since Folly must be present in every individual at birth and in every society’s earliest heroes. Moreover, Folly is said to be owed greater authority than Love, not only because of Folly’s priority over Love, but also because of the tremendous debt that humans and even their gods owe her for their greatest accomplishments. The flowing list of these gifts to human society and world cultures is a rhetorical torrent. Mercury recites Lolly’s ongoing list of accomplishments and honors. The discovery, cultivation, and trade in artifacts derived from the flora and fauna and produced from the earth and the seas is attributed to the singular vision and unique perspective that Lolly inspires when she touches individuals so that they stray from the collective toward a separate, different path. Lolly’s touch stirs up the brain of those afflicted with its special gift, especially among the great ones: “Folie ha fait les autres obeir Folie ha invente toute V excellence, magnificence, et grandeur, qui depuis a cette cause s’en est ensuivie. (Labe 86)” [Folly made the others obey (her). Folly invented all excellence, magnificence, and grandeur, which subsequently result from this cause (my translations throughout)]. The examples of these phenomenal individuals and their unprecedented, wholly original thoughts, words, and actions begin with Alexander the Great (Labe 86), who is followed in swift succession by a series of great philosophers as well as distinguished scientists and masters of a wide range of disciplines in the ancient world. All of them were touched in the head and agitated in their brain, according to the version of history used to defend Lolly before her accusers. According to Labe’s reinterpretation of medi- eval psychology, the personalities of these Greco-Roman gods and figures and the behaviors that they cause in mortals are also closely linked to the disturbances they cause and their untoward and unexpected consequences. The argument in Labe’s text is that the greatest thinkers are touched most pro- foundly by Lolly, from birth to death. Among them are great minds like the Stoic Chrysippus (280-207 B.C) and Aristotle himself (384-322 B.C.). ''Combien pensez vous quelle (Folie) ait defois remue le cerveau de Chrysippe? qui regarderoit THE POETIC BRAIN 69 bien . . . trouveroit . . . comme leurs cerveaus estoient mal fails.” (Labe 86-87). [How many times do you think that (Folly) shook the brain of Chrysippus? .... who- ever looked hard . . . would see . . . how (the) brains (of all the others) had been deformed.] Also included among those brains touched by Folly is Empedocles, the scientist, theologian, and cosmologist among the pre-Socratics in the 5th century B.C., who is credited with having established that the four elements of the universe were earth, air, fire, and water. In his world view the four basic elements change back and forth due to the influence of Love, as the unifying principle, versus Strife, as the fragmenting principle, all of which are motivated by the impetus of Chance and Necessity.^ Represented as being similarly addled and touched in the head is Diogenes (4127-323 B.C.), the post-Socratic philosopher who founded the Cynics. He is known for having made it his mission to live and promote an ethic that resisted the oppres- sion that comes under the rubric of artifice and convention in society and for setting as his goal the pursuit of virtue and the moral freedom gained by liberating oneself from desire.^ Refusing the straight and narrow C'demeurer en chemin ” [Labe 87]), the gifted, inspired, talented, creative, and independent, according to Labe’s dialogue go their own way until they meet a like-minded and equally dazed and brain-troubled person who values someone as different as themselves, '‘Lefol ira tant et viendra, en donnera tant a tort et a travers, qu’il rencontrera enfin quelque cerveau pared au sien qui le poussera : et se fera estimer grand homme.” (Labe 87). [The fool will go forward and back and will do it at random, until he meets up with a brain similar to his which will force him and make him see himself as a great man.] Folly likewise refuses the temporary, hidden, and isolated pleasure of individual love, a pleasure which quickly fades into boredom and, what is more, results in a bad headache, according to Mercury’s indictment of Love’s weakness and lack of respect and authority. Obviously, Folly’s disturbances of the brain cause corre- sponding psychological disturbances. But rather than result in maladies related to the brain, sense organs, or faculties that Galen described in De locis ajfectis [On Affected Parts], De temperamentis [On Temperaments], and De naturalibus facultatibus [On the natural faculties], in the Debate Folly’s effects on the brain of certain individuals are a result that is good for every society, its collective knowl- edge, and its culture. The close of Mercury’s argument in favor of Folly, its priority, and authority pro- vides solutions to the problems caused by Love, and remedies to the agitation, distur- bances, and disharmony in the solitary, unreciprocated lover’s temperament. All of this leads Mercury to make one final admission before submitting the case of Folly against Love for Jupiter’s final judgment. In the theoretical anatomy, physiology, and medi- cine of Love and Folly, Mercury concedes in open court that the two are inseparable, “Amour donq nefut jamais sans la compagnie de Folie” (Labe 101), [Therefore, Love 70 CHRISTINE CLARK-EVANS has never been without the company of Folly ].^ In his position as final arbiter and l judge, Jupiter postpones his verdict to some far off future time and in the mean- while sentences Folly to guide the blinded Cupid wherever he (or wherever she)^^ seems to want to go. | Where Love is a tender and apparently Christian feeling and emotion that affects people, both collectively in their cohesive groups and individually in inti- 1 mate dyads and married couples. Folly, though commonly shared in laughter andl humor, remains singular in its effect on the brain, soul, and spirit of the individual. * Folly makes the individual, separate himself from the others, because the brain is uniquely agitated and refigured at birth and for the rest of that person’s life. Drawn i from the prose Debate of Folly and Love, this description of the metaphysics and physiology of love and folly is interlaced throughout Labe’s poetry of the' Sonnets and the Elegies. In the first lines of the final Elegy III, there is expressed ii that same perpetually haunting desire for the beloved as seen in the lover’s lament : about, ''mes regrets, ennuis, despits et larmes'" (Labe 115) [My regrets, woes,, resentments, and tears]. There is likewise her grief for the lost beloved, that intel- lectual, spiritual soul of the poet-lover’s body, which she seeks longingly in: Sonnet VII, ''Lors que du corps I ’ame sutile part .... Ou es tu donq, o ame aymee (Labe 124) [When from the body the subtle soul departs .... Where are you then,, oh my beloved soul?]. And there is the head of her beloved, her world in micro- cosm wherein are the brain and soul, a sight which inspires her impassioned heart! in Sonnet X (Labe 126), “ Quand j’apergoy ton blond chef couronne . ... Au chefi d’honneur plus haut que nul ateindre'' (Labe 126) [When I espy your crowned! blond head .... (Head) of (such high) honor that none can attain]. These concepts and metaphors in Labe’s poetry relate to parts and functions of the | brain and nervous system, and they all reflect ideas and principles elaborated in the I Debate. Furthermore there is a fluid reciprocity of these ideas and concepts in the prose’ and the poetry. In other examples, the beauty, joy, curiosity, and singular path along the’' Euripa River taken by the enamored lover in Sonnet XIII are reminiscent of the inexpli- 1| cably violent currents of the Euripa River that confused, angered, and frustrated Aristotle ’ ! as to their source to the point of madness, as explained in the Debate. The Euripa River’s violence first in the prose dialogue and then in verse is a metaphor both for the troubled j| episteme of the lover and her beloved when they are forced apart and for the mental 1 1 derangement experienced by the wisest man or woman before the greatest unknown orri intellectual challenge. The suffering caused by love and the madness caused by an in- | soluble problem are made analogous. Such ideas about the brain, nervous system, and l their operations and also such analogies shared between these two genres are found! throughout Labe’s prose and poetic works. The anatomy and physiology of Labean neuroscience form an eclectic mixture off Stoic, Aristotelian, and Galenic theoretical medicine and empirical logic with her owml* THE POETIC BRAIN 71 version of Neo-Platonist and Platonist metaphysics. This combination of medicine and metaphysics permits Labe’s writings to make the radical poetic shift in gender from the male lover to the female lover and make the decisive transformation from accepting the domestic limitations of a woman’s education to expanding women’s participation in culture and society to include the power and mastery that comes with humanist educa- tion, heretofore reserved for men. As a result of her medical and metaphysical justifica- tions, it becomes possible for Louise Labe and women like her to set down in writing, first perhaps in prose and eventually in poetry, women’s learning and creative ideas and enter along this path the realm of letters, arts, and sciences. The Aesclepiades: The Brain Taken From Ancient Greek Medicine in Ronsard’s Amours Ronsard’s poetry has long been considered encyclopedic in the depth and breadth of the poet’s knowledge about the physical and metaphysical world, and his knowledge of the arts and sciences of his day has been recognized and examined, especially the Hymnes}^ The questions for this study on neuroscience are concerned with whether and in what manner Ronsard’s Amours (1552-1584) represent the brain and nervous tissue in the intellectual history of his era. What medical theories on topics in neuro- science do his poems present? An examination of a select few of Ronsard’s Amours can be very revealing about the poet’s neuroscience and its place in early modern French intellectual history. The reason for choosing the following poems is that they point directly to Ronsard’s medical orientation and the theories that are most consistent in his representation of the brain, nervous system and mental operations. Ronsard’s refutation of Platonist philosophy, cosmology, and metaphysics parallels his refutation of Petrarch, and, not surprisingly, continues unbroken in his neuroscience. The mind-body problem in his Amours is not resolved with the categorical separation of the spiritual, immaterial soul separated by its nature from the physical, material body. Sonnet XLII of the Premier Liv re des Sonets pour Helene (1578) is clear illustration of this refutation of Platonist metaphysics and its valorization of the soul, the intellect, theoretical education, and the philosophy of ideas and forms. Bien que I’esprit humain s’enfle par la doctrine De Platon, qui le chante influsion des cieux. Si est-ce sans le corps qu’il seroit ocieux, Et auroit beau vanter sa celeste origineP (Ronsards 407) [While the human spirit might be so inflated by the doctrine Of Plato, who carols it as the (nervous) influx of the heavens. Is it so bodiless as to be indolent. And (not) so very fine praise to its celestial origin(?)l 72 CHRISTINE CLARK-EVANS This refutation pushes Ronsard’s critical analysis of the separation of body and soul to the point of accusing Plato, for his concept of the rational soul separated from the living body, of being a fraud and purveyor of dreams, chimeras, or mythical stories about dashed hopes and aspirations. But the neuroscience represented in i\\t Amours goes beyond refutation of the basic ideas in Platonist metaphysics and goes on to advocate a particular theoretical medi- cine. In Sonnet XXXVI the frustrated narrator “ye” calls out to the “barber,” the title then for a practicing medical doctor without university credentials, and the troubled i narrator pleads for the figure of the barber-physician to heal his beloved of her antipa- thy and cold-heartedness toward him. ' Gentil harbier, enfant de Podalyre, i Je te supply, seigne Men ma maitresse, Et qu 'en ce mois, en seignant, elle laisse j Le sang gele dont elle me martyre. [Kind barber, son of Podalirius, I beg you, bleed my mistress well. And (in a month), by bleeding her, (she will release) The icy blood which makes her torture me.] Here Ronsard’s beloved goes unnamed but the lineage of the doctor called to treat : her anti-love sickness is clearly known, the son of Podalyre, as noted in modem edi- tions, a version of the name Polidore, one of the two sons of the legendary Aesculapius > or Aesclepius.^^ The poet-lover begs Podalirius, doctor and warrior,*^ to bleed his mistress oft her cold blood and, with it, her cold-heartedness, so that the remaining warm blood, ''le sang plus chaut,'' will inspire her to love him. Desperate for a cure, Ronsard’s narrator is willing to risk her death, and to risk his own spiritually, with a widely accepted metaphorical remedy. However, the bleeding Podalirius administers is taken i to the extreme. Where Ronsard’s beloved recedes into the background, Ronsard’s doctor is begged I and called out to find a cure for her diffidence and harshness. Among the ancienti Greek poets, Apollo was the god who founded medicine, and he first established methodical medicine, which pursues remedies and incantations. Known as the son ofl Apollo and Coronis, Aesculapius learned medicine from Apollo. Divine healer and thet object of his own religious cult, Aesculapius is the founder and patron of ancient Greek medicine, whose renown warranted both disciplined study and worship. Aesculapius followed in his father’s footsteps in the healing arts and sciences, and he invented empiric medicine, which was based not on indications and signs but oni experience alone. Hippocrates only later invented rational medicine based on observa- tion and dissections.*"^ THE POETIC BRAIN 73 ' In the end, the remedy seems to be going too far and the poet-lover demands that the barber-doctor stop upon seeing how the lady beloved was bled so much until there was no warm blood to find. Particularly significant for Ronsardian neuroscience is the fact that among the earliest antecedents of Western medicine is the medicine of the famous ancient Greek poets, as found in the writings of Homer and Hesiod, which long predates the Socratic era. Medicine of the poets was founded on vital breath, the spiri- tus, or anima as the principle of animal life, on the one hand, with animal spirits in the blood and an individual moral consciousness as intermediaries and vehicles to the liv- ing physical body, on the other hand.*^ It seems only fitting that Ronsardian neuro- science circumvents the debates and controversies of his contemporary medical theorists, who are mere mortals. Apparently, it takes mythical doctors to heal the epic soul and brain in his poetry. Ronsardian neuroscience per se is more explicitly revealed in Sonnet XX of the Premier Livre des Sonets pour Helene (1578) where the human head is praised as the origin and locus of mental faculties such as thought, feelings, emotion, and the reason- able and eternal Christian soul. In this sonnet Ronsard’s narrator initially calls the head the source of art and learning: Chef, escole des arts, le sejour de science. Oil vit un intellect, quifoy du del nous fait, Une heureuse memoire, un jugement parfait (Ronsard 396) [Head, school of the arts, seat of knowledge. Where intellect resides, which heavenly faith creates in us A blessed memory and perfect judgment.] In swift succession the metaphorical names for the head cascade from verse to verse: “habitat of intellecf ’ — “maker of heaven-sent faith” — “the resting place of blessed memory and perfect judgment’ ’ — “second birthplace of Pallas Athena” — “locus of honor, virtue, and prudence” — “supreme enemy of vice” — “small universe which holds per- fect knowledge of the great All” — “all timely and subtle, all circular and all within yourself.” The metaphors, or other names in Aristotelian poetics, for the head demon- strate the Aesclepionic influences in Ronsardian neuroscience and point to an aesthetic commitment to the ancient Greek theogony or theology of Homeric and Hesiodic liter- ary sources for his psychology. In this study of neuroscience in the works of two poets in such sharp contrast, Louise Labe’s Oeuvres resolve the psychological dialectic between the allegorical Folly and Love, that is both the neural effects and the behaviors they produce. In the Debate there are contending positions between Platonic metaphysics on love versus ancient Greek and Roman mythology theoretical medicine on Folly, espe- cially the Stoics on emotion, passions, affections, and the seat of the soul. In addi- tion there is due tribute to contemporary philosophy, in particular Erasmus’s In 74 CHRISTINE CLARK-EVANS Praise of Folly. In her Oeuvres, the Sonnets and Elegies represent the resulting dialectical unity at the end of the Debate between two opposing sides of similarly i compelling value and authority that form the theoretical basis of her poetry. At the conclusion of the Debate there is an ambiguous but intriguing dynamic created in combining love with folly that suggests that, in the allegory of Lady Folly leading through the world for the foreseeable future little Cupid, the blinded archer, human beings always have the capacity for both greatness and happiness, because of the joy and intellectual and emotional harmony in pairing the two, on the one hand, and because of their creative discord and imaginative tension, on the other. In Pierre de Ronsard’s Amours, the poet’s neuroscience is based on Aesclepionic medicine, both the historical and the legendary, whose ancient medical theories and practices the poet clearly prefers over the controversies, weaknesses, and uncertainties of Renaissance anatomists, physicians, and medical doctors. In the voice of the poet- lover, the author of the Amours deliberately ignores all of the theoretical and practical medicine of his contemporary physicians and doctors in favor of the intellectually and morally superior form of ancient theologically based medicine. Because Ronsardian neuroscience is based on principles laid down by the Greek gods who founded medi- cine, by the mythic physician healers who descended from them, and by the ancient medical warrior-doctors who established divinely guided medical traditions, their theo- ries and practices of divine medicine regarded by the Ancients serve as suitable meta- phors to represent the poet-lover’s visionary outlook, his experience, and his masculine subjective reality. The poetic examples considered here point to the distinct choice by each author of certain theories and particular sources and uses of philosophy and theoretical medical knowledge about the brain and its functions. Interestingly, while Louise Labe and Pierre de Ronsard were in their own way distant from contemporary theories about the Ga- lenic brain and Vesalian neural anatomy, and each poet looked instead to different well regarded ancient philosophers or classical Greek and Roman literature for their neuro- science, both of them, quite logically as poets, addressed concepts and theories about the brain and nervous system that were involved in the process of writing and its men- tal, emotional, perceptual, neural sources and inspiration. While the terms for the struc- tures and concepts of the operations of that part of human life which thinks, feels, perceives, and wills changed rapidly in the sixteenth century, the brain and nervous system became a shared object of investigation and discussion by French writers in this period. Louise Labe and Pierre de Ronsard are two poets whose views on neuroscience are both striking and impressive. THE POETIC BRAIN 75 References Asclepius. Collection and interpretation of the testimonies, Edelstein, E. and L., ed. (1945 ) Baltimore and Lon- don: The Johns Hopkins University Press, rpt. 1988. Baker, D.L. (1996) The subject of desire: Petrarchan poetics and the female voice in Louise Labe. West Lafayette, IN: Purdue University Press. Baas, J., M.D., (1971) Outlines of the history of medicine and the medical profession, trans. and rev. by H.E. Handerson, M.A., M.D. Huntington, NY: Robert E. Krieger Publishing Co., Inc. Bensimon, M. (1972) “The significance of eye imagery in the Renaissance from Bosch to Montaigne.” In Image and symbol in the renaissance, Yale French Studies, 47. Chaignet, A. -Ed. (1966) Histoire de la psychologie des Grecs, avant et apres Aristote, Bruxelles: Culture et Civilisation. Gadoffre, G. (1963) “Ronsard et la pensee ficinienne,” Archives de philosophie, Janvier 1963. Kemp, S. “Medieval psychology” in Contributions in psychology, 14. New York and Westport, CN: Greenwood Press. Labe, L. Oeuvres completes. Francois Rigolot, ed. (1986) Paris: Gamier-Flammarion. Pantin, I. (1997) “ ‘Les amours et leurs noeuds de philosophic’: Un aspect de I’attitude de Ronsard envers la tradition Petrarquiste.” In Revue de litteratures Frangaises et comparee, IX. Pantin, I. (1984) “L’hymne du del.” In Lazard, M.,ed. Autour des Hymnes de Ronsard Paris: Champion. Also “Les amours et leurs noeuds de philosophic’ : Un aspect de 1’ Attitude de Ronsard envers la tradition petrarquiste,” Revue de litteratures Frangaises et comparee, IX. de Ronsard, P. Les amours. Henri et Catherine Weber, ed. (1998) Paris: Classiques Gamier. Russell, B. (1945) A history of western philosophy. Touchstone Series. New York: Simon and Schuster, rpt. 1972. Schmidt, A. (1970) La poesie scientifique au XVIe Siecle. Lausanne: Editions Rencontre. Notes 1. Simon Kemp, Medieval Psychology. Contributions in Psychology, 14. New York and Westport, CN: Green- wood Press, 62. This work provides a summary history of medieval psychology and its textual sources. 2. Kemp, 53-59. 3. Kemp 71. 4. Deborah Lesko Baker, The subject of desire: Petrarchan poetics and the female voice. In Louise Labe (1966), 2, treats throughout desire as “activity” and “problem,” and 41-89, concentrates on the implications that result from the evolution of and relation between Labe’s prose and her history. 5. Rigolot, 68. Translations throughout are by Clark-Evans. 6. Bertrand Russell, 55. 7. Russell, 231. 8. Rigolet, ed., 22, describes this point in Mercuy’s defense of Folly a union of opposites, ''une alliance des contraires, une coincidentia oppositorum,” between love and folly. 9. According to Rigolot (ft.2), the passage (Labe, 103) is ambiguous about whether Cupid or Folly decides where they will go. 10. M. Bensimon, 266-290; G. Gadoffre, 45-48; and A-M Schmidt are among the most prominent works on Ronsard’s scientific poetry in general. Schmidt, 95-138, examines in depths the Hymnes (1555-1556) and concludes that Ronsard’s cosmology and his metaphysics, based on Neo-Latin authors and Stoic principles, produce a germinal epistemological synthesis between scientific thought and poetic discourse, whose heri- tage continued through the second half of the sixteenth century. Patin, in Lazard, ed., 187-2 14, has done among the most important contemporary studies of Ronsard’s Hymnes, and her Les Amours et leurs ‘noeuds de pahilosophie: Un aspect de F Attitude de Ronsard envers la tradition Petrarquiste, 49-56. has examined the esthetic philosophy in the Amours. 76 CHRISTINE CLARK-EVANS 1 1. Pierre de Ronsard, Les Amours. Henri et Catherine Weber, eds. (1998) Paris: Classiques Gamier, 407. 12. Ronsard, 193, in ft. 2 to this citation has already noted that the black blood refers in the theory of tempera- ments to a melancholy individual and emulates Marot on bleeding the beloved and Homer on the name of the medical doctor in question. 13. J. H. Baas, M.D., (1971) Outlines of the history of medicine and the medical profession, trans. And rev. by H.E. Henderson, M.A., M.D. Huntington, NY: Robert E. Krieger Publishing Co., Inc., I, 86. 14. Asclepius. Collection and interpretation of the testimonies, E. and L. Edelstein, ed. (1945) Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, rpt. 1988. xxii, 182, 186. 15. Ronsard, 396, in ft. 2 to this citation the editors Weber have already noted that black blood refers in the theory of temperaments to a melancholy individual and the poem emulates Marot on bleeding the beloved and Homer on the name of the medical doctor in question. 16. Chaignet, I, 5-6. Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences, Volume 89, Number 1 & 2, 77-86, Spring/Summer 2003 The Playhouse as Plaguehouse in Early Modern Revenge Tragedy Melissa Smith Department of English McMaster University Hamilton, Ontario Abstract Outbreaks of the plague in early modem London evoked a plethora of prose works that attempted to explain the moral and medical reasons for the plague’s “visitations.” However, there are no significant analogous developments in the theatre of the period. This paper addresses the question, “Where are all the plague plays?” by examining revenge tragedy as one possible site of the plague’s impact. The plots of The Revenger’s Tragedy and Ford’s The Broken Heart follow the pattern of a plague outbreak, in which one “infected” person causes the stage to be littered with bodies by the final scene. In addition, early modern beliefs about the plague’s causes and effects are reflected in the plots of these tragedies. On a meta-theatrical level, revenge tragedy configures the playhouse as a plaguehouse: “quar- antined” within the world of the play, characters have no guarantee of survival, only that the casualties will be high. Reading these plays through the discourse of infection not only has implications for our understanding of this particularly violent sub-genre of tragedy, but it also offers new insight into the intimate connections made by early modem medicine be- tween the mind and the body, between the physical and the emotional. I A survey of the bills of mortality for London in the early seventeenth century ' reveals the heavy impact of plague on the urban populace. By F. P. Wilson’s estimates, ! the population of London was 250,000 in 1603 (Wilson 1 14). In that year, the bills of mortality record the deaths of 30,578 by plague (Wilson 1 14). The second major out- break of the period in 1625 took 35,417 lives (Wilson 211). London’s population in that year is estimated at 320.000 (Wilson 174-5). Between these two outbreaks, the plague struck with varying intensity: the years 1604-1611, for example, saw the additional deaths of more than 13.000 people by plague (Wilson 210). I But we do not need to rely exclusively on statistics for information on how terrible , the plague was. In The Wonderfull Yeare, written in response to the 1603 outbreak, I Thomas Dekker wonders, i For he that durst . . . have bene so valiant, as to have walkte through the stil and melancholy streets, what thinke you should have bene his musicke? Surely the 78 MELISSA SMITH loude grones of rauing sicke men: the strugling panges of soules departing: ... here he should have met some . . . fear-fully sweating with Coffins, to steale t forth dead bodies, least the fatall hand-writing of death should seale up their doores. . .. The dreadfulnesse of such an houre, is in-utterable. (27-28) Dekker’s anecdote of furtive attempts to remove the corpses from family homes in order to avoid quarantine illustrates the desperation and terror of plague time. George i Wither’s Britain's Remembrancer, a response to the 1625 plague, reveals that even mundane activities became regarded as potential sources of infection as it reports a rumor of infected pigs in the marketplace: Some, to frequent the Markets were afraid; And some to feed on what was thence purvay’d. For on young pigs such purple spots were seene. As markes of Death on P/agw^-sicke men have been. (Wither 134) Early modem print practices made possible swift and comprehensive responses to the plague. Plague years sparked a variety of printed responses, including sermons, medical treatises, and literary responses such as Wither’s and Dekker’s. These texts feature innumerable details of the effect of plague on early modern bodies and culture, and signs indicating the likelihood of its recurrence. They are evidence of a culture that was repeatedly traumatized on a mass scale by this unpredictable and deadly disease. Current studies of the drama of the period, however, largely fail to consider the . impact of plague on theatrical activity. This lack is in part attributable to what Leeds ^ Barroll describes as “the traditional picture of . . . a flourishing and uninterrupted enter- ^ prise,” during which “Plays, presumably, were there to be seen every afternoon for yean after sunny year” ( 1 72). By his calculations, however, theatres were closed for 7 1 months ^ from 1603 to 1613 (173). It is unquestionable that the plague had a significant impact ^ on theatrical activity. ^ However, the lack of critical attention to this aspect of early modem theatre is also ^ attributable to the fact that playwrights of the time seem to have failed, for the most . part, to register the plague experience in the plays themselves. While critics have noted ^ the ubiquitous use of pestilential language in the period, there are very few plays which treat plague as part of their plots — that one could say are about the plague. In an era in ^ which theatre achieved an unprecedented level of psychological realism, and began to use contemporary settings and subject matter, Jonson’s The Alchemist (\6\0) stands out as one of few plays that uses a London plague outbreak as the backdrop for its action. Middleton’s Your Five Gallants (1608) also reflects the experience of the plague in a scene in which “a London broker conducts his business with a bill of mortality by his ^ side,” rejecting and accepting pawns based on the level of infection in the applicant’s ^ neighbourhood (Wilson 109-110). THE PLAYHOUSE AS PLAGUEHOUSE 79 However, these examples still leave us with the question, “Where are all the plague plays?” It was with this question in mind, as well as the question of how these plays might be found, that I attempted to theorize how mass trauma impacts popular enter- tainment. I thought about recent world events. One could not escape news coverage of September 1 1 following the events of that day; however, Hollywood immediately delayed the release of several films that had plots involving terrorism, bombs, or air- planes in danger. But this does not mean that September 1 1 failed to register in popular entertain- ment. A year and a half later, it seems evident that these events continue to be presented to audiences in filtered ways that enable them to take on some additional meanings. M. Night Shyamalan’s Signs, for example, began filming on September 12, 2001 (Signs DVD 2002). It features an alien invasion as it is experienced by a rural family. The family obsessively and helplessly watches coverage of the invasion on television, but eventually gets to play their own part in defending themselves by physically beating and defeating one of the invaders when it threatens the life of the main character’s young son. The analogies to the terrorist attacks seem obvious, but more important for my purposes is the fantasy of agency the film builds, a reassuring vision of the individual’s ability to take action in the face of an overwhelming threat. These observations opened new possibilities for examining the intersections of the early modem plague experience and theatre. If popular entertainment does act as a form of filter, presenting traumatic events to its audiences in a less terrifying form, then what it does with the raw material of traumatic experience will also be revealing of how that culture manages trauma. Having suffered the mass trauma of plague, what sorts of fantasies does early modem culture present to its theatrical audiences? Revenge tragedy seems an obvious candidate for a site of the plague’s impact because of its biologically graphic plots: a single character’s thirst for blood in the beginning of the play results in a stage littered by bodies at the end. Thus some revenge tragedies may be said to be about the plague insofar as they reflect the narratives con- stmcted by early modem discourse to explain the plague — the reasons for its presence in human societies, the methods by which it was transmitted, and the ways in which it killed. Early modem medical and religious authorities viewed plague as intimately con- nected with ideas of divine retribution and a variety of human weaknesses, particularly emotional imbalances, that made the individual more susceptible to infection. These traits, the need for retribution and emotional imbalances that render the body vulner- able, are important factors in the plots of revenge tragedy. William Muggins’s London's Mourning Garment ( \ 603) demonstrates some of the psychological impacts of idea of plague as divine punishment. Narrated by London personified. Muggins’s poem begins with a depiction of the city in a state of happy anticipation of the newly crowned James. In this case, the outbreak is viewed as punish- ment for the pride London shows in displaying her wealth. By collapsing the collective 80 MELISSA SMITH of London society into the single persona of London, Muggins subsumes individual crimes under the aegis of society as a whole. It is society as a whole, then, that incurs the wrath of God. As the rest of the poem emphasizes, it is part of the insidious nature of plague that it does not necessarily punish those who are most deserving. Rather, plague strikes randomly. London reminds her audience that ... to the ende, none dwelling in my Cittie Should think themselves more safer than the rest,. . . Gods judgements upon all degrees are prest. (C3v) Plague threatens to punish anyone potentially, while taking away the individual’s control over the cause of that punishment. It necessarily evokes feelings of helplessness that are already present in a culture heavily invested in notions of providence and pre- destination. In this context, revenge tragedy may operate to mitigate this sense of help- lessness by temporarily placing the power of life and death in the hands of a human being, the revenger. For the duration of the play, the revenger is imbued with an at times almost supernatural ability to hide in plain sight, well enough and long enough to avoid punishment until his vengeance is accomplished. More importantly, the revenger operates as a kind of walking infection, a site of injury that proves deadly to the characters who share the stage with him. The revenger acts out of a past experience of deep personal injury, a condition that marks him as metaphorically infected. There is an etymological association between “plague” and “wound”. This is noted by Margaret Healy in her superlative Fictions of Disease in Early Modern England (2001). This association suggests a particularly violent injury, since as Healy notes, “The English ‘plague’ derives from the Latin word ‘plaga’ meaning ‘a blow, a stroke, a wound’ (OED2 [1])” (Healy 55). The revenger’s wound is emotional, but the connection between woundedness and plague is an intimate one. Indeed, the connection between negative emotions and vulnerability to plague is commonplace in the period. Simon Kellwaye’s 1593 treatise “A Defensative Against the Plague” advises that one should “Beware of anger, feare, and pensivenes of the minde, for by their meanes the body is made more apt to receive the infec- tion” (Elr/p. 13). Erancis Hering offers a more detailed explanation of the interac- tions of emotion and infection: “Eschue all perturbations of minde, especially anger and feare. The one by heating the body opens a doore for the enemie to enter: the other by cowardly running away gives him encouragement to tread on the hedge, which lyeth lowest, and maketh least resistance” (Blr). An emotional habit, espe- cially a negative one, causes the humoural composition of the body to skew in one direction or another, potentially unbalancing one’s disposition. An unbalanced disposition was thought to combine with exogenous disease factors to create a THE PLAYHOUSE AS PLAGUEHOUSE 81 diseased body: “it is not only the venemous and contagious ayre which we receive that doth kill us, but it is the present communicating of that contagion, with some superfluous humors in our bodies,” Simon Kellwaye writes (Dlv). The relation between emotional imbalance and disease is particularly significant when we consider the emotional composition of the revenger. About to discover the body of his son Horatio, an event which will begin his career as a revenger, Hieronomo in The Spanish Tragedy (1587) asks, “What outcries pluck me from my naked bed, / And chill my throbbing heart with trembling fear” (2.4.63-64). Being of a vengeful disposition is associated with plague symptoms by other writers in the period. In Emblem 8, Book 1 of his Emblems, Divine and Moral (1635), Frances Quarles writes. The world’s a popular disease, that reigns Within the froward heart and frantic brains Of poor distemper’d mortals, oft arising From ill digestion, th’ unequal poising Of ill-weigh’d elements, whose light directs Malignant humours to malign effects: One raves and labours with a boiling liver; Rends hair by handfuls, cursing Cupid’s quiver; Another, with a bloody flux of oaths. Vows deep revenge. (25-26) The association between revenge and bloody flux is particularly suggestive of plague: Kellwaye devotes a substantial section of his treatise to the treatment of flux, excessive bleeding from the orifices or from plague sores or buboes. In addition to the emotional and psychological aspects of the plague experience, it is important to recall that the plague as divine retribution inevitably evoked the idea of apocalypse. In Britain’s Remembrancer, Wither mythologizes the 1625 plague by explaining that this visitation was the result of a divine compromise. In Canto 1 of that work, God decides to purge Britain of its sinful population by sending the Four Horse- men of the Apocalypse. Mercy pleads on Britain’s behalf for no punishment; Justice accuses Mercy of being a soft touch, and in the end, they agree to send Pestilence as a Divine slap on the wrist for Britain’s sinful populace. As we shall see, revenge tragedy, like plague in Wither’s poem, likewise emulates the apocalyptic scenario without ulti- mately producing it. * * * By these criteria, I view The Revenger’s Tragedy (1606) as a prime candidate for pestilential theatre. This play emulates the apocalyptic through the figure of Vindice, who bloodthirstily takes back his sense of agency by murdering the evil, lecherous Duke who stole it away. Simultaneously, Vindice tests and then spares from death a variety of other characters, including his mother and sister. From the beginning of the 82 MELISSA SMITH play, Vindice places himself in the position of judge. In the opening scene, Vindice performs a runnning commentary while the courtly characters pass across the stage like a parade of sins: Duke — royal lecher! Go, gray-haired adultery; And thou his son, as impious steeped as he; And thou his bastard true-begot in evil; And thou his duchess that will do with devil; Four ex ’lent characters. (1.1. 1-5) The staging of this scene supports the notion that Vindice is somehow apart from i| d those he judges. He can see them, but they can’t see him. Throughout the action of the t play, Vindice displays the revenger’s (and disease’s) ability to hide in plain sight. Dis- b guised as the pander Piato, he infiltrates the court, gains the trust of various courtiers, ri and eventually poisons the Duke. Like the death that haunts the city in London 's Mourning c Garment, Vindice “Rageth up and downe, / And secretly, his heavy visage shewes” I c (Muggins B3v). These transformational and judging capabilities further echo early | f modem fears and fantasies about the plague. As Wither observes, “The Pestilence doth ij t show herself inclin’d / So variously, she cannot be defin’d ... It is a rational Disease, which can /Pick, with discretion, here and there a man” (116). ; ! However, Vindice’s identity as apocalyptic equalizer, sparing the saved and aveng- ( ing himself against the damned, unravels as the pestilential avengers multiply ridicu- lously in the final scene of the play. Here two separate sets of murderous masquers plan to kill everyone at the head table. The leader of the second set of revengers, the Duke’s bastard son Spurio, possesses in an almost primal form Vindice’s lust for blood: “I feel it swell in me,” he says, speaking of his need for bloody vengeance as if it were a physical ailment. “My revenge is just;/ 1 was begot in impudent wine and lusf ’ (1.3.189-190). In the final scene, when Spurio and his gang find the job of murdering Lussurioso and his supporters already done, they fall upon each other in an unprec- ■ i edented stabfest. Rather than creating the finality promised by the apocalypse, whereby the fallen and sinful are separated from the saved, the revengers’ plans result only in li ] piles of bodies, with the ambiguously benevolent Antonio becoming the new duke. His final words by no means suggest an end to the violence and bloodshed that has occu- pied the action of the play: “Bear up/ Those tragic bodies; ’tis a heavy season./ Pray ; i heaven their blood may wash away all treason”(5.3. 126-8). In the world of The Revenger's ; Tragedy, there are no guarantees that the cycle of sinfulness and retribution is over. After entertaining the fantasy of finality, the play collapses it, as Vindice confesses j to killing the Duke. Up until this point, it looks like Vindice and his brother are literally getting away with murder. Trying to justify his confession to Hippolito, Vindice argues ; that “’Tis time to die, when we are ourselves our foes” (5.3.109). If we follow the THE PLAYHOUSE AS PLAGUEHOUSE 83 pestilential logic of this play, we might be able to resolve Vindice’s decision to confess. Having participated in bloody acts of vengeance, he himself has become one of the enemy, a diseased member of society who deserves judgement because of his emotional imbalance. * * * A similar logic governs the death of the revenger Orgilus in Ford’s The Broken Heart, probably composed in the late 1620s and published in the early 1630s. From 1621 to 1624 Ford collaborated on five plays, two of which are extant. His main col- laborator was Thomas Dekker — Ford and Dekker wrote The Witch of Edmonton in 1621 with William Rowley. However, the later 1620s into the 1630s sees Ford going indepen- dent as he writes The Lover's Melancholy, 'Tis Pity She's a Whore, and The Broken Heart. In these three plays, Colin Gibson identifies what he calls an “extraordinary burst of imaginative energy” (78). In The Broken Heart, Gibson notes in particular the remarkable scenes of bloodletting, but attributes to the play “an almost exemplary range of types of death” (68). Particularly noteworthy is the fact that the two phases of Ford’s career, the collaborative and the independent, are separated by a plague year, 1625. This fact is a key to understanding the variety of deaths that occur in The Broken Heart, and to opening the text’s emotional dynamics to new understanding. Like The Revenger's Tragedy, this play is rich in images of disease. Telling his father Crotolon he has returned from Athens, Orgilus complains that there was an outbreak of the plague there. His father replies, I fear Thou hast brought back a worse infection with thee — Infection of thy mind, which, as thou sayst. Threatens the desolation of our family. (Ford 3.4.43-46) Of course, the play traces precisely the destruction of Orgilus’s family, as Orgilus’s actions precipitate devastating madness and death in the Spartan court. Indeed, this play is remarkable for its emulation of the various methods by which plague kills. The storyline is this: Penthea is betrothed to Orgilus, but because of a former political dispute, her brother Rhodes marries her to the jealous Bassanes. Rhodes loves Calantha, who is next in line for the Spartan throne. Penthea and Rhodes recon- cile their differences and she agrees to help him win Calantha, after which Penthea, forever separated from Orgilus, pines and dies. Orgilus takes his revenge by transform- ing Rhodes into a sort of fountain of blood, killing him. Hearing the news of Penthea’s, Rhodes’s, and her father’s death (of natural causes), Calantha dies, but not before she marries the dead Rhodes. Orgilus chooses to be his own executioner, piercing his own veins, and thus also emulating the bloody flux commonly associated with death by plague. 84 MELISSA SMITH Perhaps even more than The Revenger's Tragedy, The Broken Heart participates in the notion that emotional injury is not only deadly, but also transmissible from person to person. The reconciliation scene between Ithocles and Penthea is full of the language of contamination and illness. Ithocles has earlier expressed his sense that he has injured himself through his actions: he attributes to himself “the sickness of a mind /Broken with griefs” (2.2.12-13). Part of Ithocles’ apology to Penthea includes the idea that his sickness of mind has been transmitted to her: he says, my rash spleen Hath with a violent hand plucked from thy bosom A lover-blessed heart, to grind it into dust. For which mine’s now a-breaking. (3.2. 43-46) In return for his apology, Penthea promises to help him win Calantha, “If sorrows / Have not too much dulled [her] infected brain” (116). The emotional damage dealt by Ithocles operates within a complex of meanings that involve disease and disposition. As Margaret Healy points out, dispositions were considered by some medical writers to be contagious. She writes, “The words ‘contagion’, ‘corrupt’, ‘defile’ and ‘malignant’ are all potentially functioning in thei moral/psychic, as well as in the physical (disease-transmission) domain” (41). Rather' than viewing this as an occult or supernatural notion separate from the idea of disease ■ transmission, I am interested in the ways in which these two discourses might have ■ been thought to be identical — in other words, since disease factors and negative emo- tions were both considered infectious in the period, and both operated to harm the bod- ies they infiltrated, I suggest that they might operate as equivalents to each other. So The Broken Heart might be considered a play ‘about’ plague insofar as it is about the trans- mission of fatal emotions from one character to another. This transmission is perhaps most clear in the case of Calantha. She appears toil survive the news of the deaths of Penthea, Ithocles, and her father, whispered into her ear during a celebratory dance. However, Calantha announces to the court that she knows < she is dying: O, my lords, I but deceived your eyes with antic gesture When one news straight came huddling on another Of death and death and death. Still I danced forward; But it struck home, and here, and in an instant. ... They are the silent griefs which cut the heartstrings; Let me die smiling. (5.3.67-76) THE PLAYHOUSE AS PLAGUEHOUSE 85 Calantha’s death stages early modem fears, supported by stories from plague time, of the possibility that one might drop dead suddenly and without warning. The forms of plague death, as Wither reminds us (in poetry not nearly as beautiful as Ford’s), are many and unpredictable: Some are tormented by it, till we see I Their veines and sinewes almost broken be. The very soul distracted, sense bereft. And scarce the smallest hope of scaping left . . . Othersome, againe Fall suddenly; or feele so little paine When they are seized, that they breathlesse lye, E’re any dying Symptomes, we espy. (51) In The Broken Heart, the revenger functions to spread death throughout the Spartan court in a variety of ways. Despite the characters’ better intentions, as expressed through the attempted reconciliations between Ithocles, Penthea, and Orgilus, the damage has already been done, and death is already on its way. Emotional damage in this play operates like an infection, outside the will of those who unwittingly spread it. My research will continue to pursue the implications of the interconnectedness of emotion and disease in the period, particularly with regard to the possibility that the idea of the broken heart entails more than just an emotional injury. We tend to read the broken heart as a description of woundedness in love, and thus exclusively emotional, and the deaths that result from these emotional injuries as hyperbolic expressions of romantic ideals. However, we might also consider information from plague literature, such as Dekker’s notion in The Wonderfull Yeare that the broken hearts of the English populace upon the loss of Queen Elizabeth made them more susceptible to plague, or the many references in plague treatises to the need to keep the infection away from the heart, as the infection of this organ in particular will instantly end the life of the patient. The emotional dynamics of these plays might be opened to new insight by reading them through discourses of disease as ways to work through the conditions of life during plague time, rather than merely as records of doomed romantic entanglements. The plague experience, the cultural function I believe these plays are performing, and the activities of playwrighting and playgoing seem intimately connected through the genre of revenge tragedy. The Revenger's Tragedy and The Broken Heart entrap their characters in claustrophobic court settings which emphasize the notion that “no one gets out of here alive” — a concept that would have been more than familiar to the poorer members of the theatrical audience, as they would have been unable to flee the city in times of infection. The boundaries between emotion and physical infection, be- tween playhouse and plaguehouse may have been more slippery than literary criticism 86 MELISSA SMITH has thought. In his “Rules ... for this time of Pestilentiall Contagion,” physician Francis Hering writes, “Concourse of people to Stage-playes, Wakes or Feasts, and May-pole- dauncings, are to be prohibited by publique Authority, whereby as God is dishonored, the bodies of men and women by surfeiting, drunkennes, and other riots and excesses, disposed to infection, and the contagion dangerously scattered” (A4v). Hering’s warn- ing against the dangers of playgoing is not exclusively related to the presence of a disease factor among the audience, but rather in the theatre’s capacity to expose its audiences to infection through overexcitement. Despite the fact that theatres were only open during times of low or no plague activity, we should consider the fear evoked by the words of the butler Jeremy (a.k.a. Face) in Ben Jonson’s The Alchemist, that “the house, sir, has been visted” — indeed, that the house was in some sense always being visited, that the plague was a constant presence in early modem theatre {The Alchemist 5.2.4). Through its ability to emotionally excite its audience, and through the covert expression of the plague experience that I believe is part of the agenda of revenge trag- edy, early modem theatre filters and represents this terrifying presence in the daily life of its audiences. References Dekker, T. “The Wonderfull Yeare In F.R Wilson, Ed. (1925) The Plague Pamphlets of Thomas Dekker. Oxford: Clarendon Press, pp. 1-61. Ford, J. (1969) The Broken Heart. Drama of the English Renaissance. Ed. M. L. Wine. New York: Modem Library, pp 687-778. Gibson, C. “ ‘The Stage of My Mortality’: Ford’s Poetry of Death.” In M. Neill, Ed. (1988). John Ford: Critical Revisions. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press., pp. 55-80. Healy, M. {2t)Q\) Fictions of Disease in Early Modern England: Bodies, Plagues and Politics. New York: Palgrave. Hering, E. (1625) Certaine Rules, Directions, or Advertisments for this Time of Pestilentiall Contagion. London: William Jones. STC 13240. Reprinted Amsterdam: Theatmm Orbis Terrarum, 1973. Jonson, B. The Alchemist (1610). In H. Ostovich. (1997) Ben Jonson: Four Comedies. New York: Longman, pp. 369-536. Kellwaye, S. (1593) A Defensative Against the Plague: Contayning Two Partes or Treatises. London : lohn Windet. STC (2nd ed.) 14917. Early English Books Online: . Kyd, T. (1587) The Spanish Tragedy. In K.E.Maus, Ed. (1995) Four Revenge Tragedies. Oxford: Oxford Univer- sity Press., pp. 1-91. Anonymous. (1606) The Revenger’s Tragedy. In K.E. Mans, Ed. (1995) Four Revenge Tragedies. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 93-173. Muggins, W. (1603) Fondons Mourning Garment, Or Funerall Teares. London: Raph Blower. STC (2nd ed.) 18248. Early English Books Online: . Quarles, E. (1859) Emblems, Divine and Moral. London: William Tegg and Company. Shyamalan, M. N. (2001) Signs. 2001. DVD Touchstone Home Entertainment. Wilson, E. P. (1963) The Plague in Shakespeare’s London. London: Oxford University Press. Wither, G. (1967) Britain’s Remembrancer. Part I and Part II. New York: Burt Franklin. Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences, Volume 89, Number 1 & 2, 87-95, Spring/Summer 2003 Plague’s Messengers: Communicating Hope and Despair in England 1550-1750 Rebecca C.N. Totaro English Program, College of Arts and Sciences Florida Gulf Coast University Abstract In our post September 1 1th society, we know that a letter has the power to kill, calling the nation to attention, but when one method of disseminating information breaks down, we can rely on many others. In plague-time England, however, the very stability of the nation might depend entirely on letters, and although no postal service existed for the average English citizen, the plague tampered with their mail on stages, in prose pamphlets, and in verse, revealing its power over their imaginations. After describing the most prominent scientific and religious theories linking letters with the spread of bubonic plague, I examine the plague letter as a device used by writers of the time (Dekker, Shakespeare, and Defoe among others) to display hope and despair through one of the most private modes of communication. In this post September 1 1th society, we know all too well that a letter has the power to kill. A phone-call has the power to create hope or cause despair. An e-mail message can correctly communicate vital information or it can debilitate one’s system with a virulent virus. A television program likewise can bring us important news that helps us improve our lives or it can reveal horrors on local, international, and even universal levels. But we are fortunate to have so many methods for communication; when one becomes tainted, we can rely on another. In times of terror or even of stress, we rely on multiple methods for sharing information. In plague-time England, however, the stability of the nation sometimes depended entirely on letters, the only link between the king or queen and London. In his book The Reign of Henry VIII: Politics, Policy and Piety, Neil Sammon notes this phenomenon as he traces the erratic and extensive patterns of Henry VIII’s early travels. Sammon con- cludes that disease, or rather Henry’s fear of disease, was one of the biggest influences upon the court’s itinerary: “In most years it was the plague which affected the court . . . [and] In less dramatic years the plague still continued to shape the king’s itinerary....”* Henry’s fear of disease left the entire court — and by extension the entire country — at the mercy of the plague. The plague kept Henry VIII away from his throne and on innumerable progresses in the country while Thomas Wolsey remained behind in Lon- don to make certain that the nation was running — via letters. 88 REBECCA C.N. TOTARO This seemed a reasonable method given the government’s control over the post, which at that time in England’s history was entirely a royal affair. Maintaining messen- gers and their horses and keeping them on time took enormous effort and money. Those who could afford to send their own messengers did so, but only the king or queen could establish carriers linked relay-style over great distances, ready to ride at a moment’s notice. Due to expense and to the priority of royal mail, no one was allowed to send ' letters through the established carrier service without the authorization of the king or ' of the post master, and no public post existed until after the Restoration.^ Whenever enemies threatened the nation, the restrictions on the mail increased and proved effec- i tive for confounding if not preventing rebel plots. But perhaps running the affairs of the nation via letter was not a reasonable method l| as much as it was the only method. When plague threatened, the isolation of individuals became clearer, halting the post regularly and forcing kings and queens to wonder if they could trust the messenger. The plague did not need the permission of the king or ' the post master to send its own death threats, to tamper with the mail, or to taint its > deliverer, and although there are no documented cases of a letter infecting its bearer or , the recipient, the literature of the time confirms that death might make a letter its car- i i rier. In fact, in plague-time the letter could deliver death by at least three distinct routes: i by air, by imagination, and by curse. i In The Wonderfull Yeare, written in 1603, dramatist and pamphleteer Thomas Dekker 1 notes the fear incited by a letter: “How many upon sight only of a Letter (sent from i London) have started back, and durst have laid their salvation upon it, that the plague ( might be folded in that emptie paper, believing verily that the arme of Omnipotence ( could never reach them, unlesse it were with some weapon drawne out of the infected i Citie.”^ London’s plague traveled literally within the fibers of the letter, efficient in its c ability to track down those who thought they could evade God’s punishment by fleeing . [ from the city. By letter, your own loved ones might unknowingly send death after you. t In plague-time, there was nowhere to hide when it seemed that all things — even the ( most intimate or the most practical — could become messengers of death. More than n two decades later in 1625, John Taylor, a London waterman turned poet, confirmed this' n fear in his poem entitled “The Fearfull Summer or London’s Calamity”: P Feare made nature, most unnaturall, Duty undutiful, or very small. No friendship or else cold and miserable ' And generally all uncharitable. Nor London letters little better sped i They would not be received (much less read) But cast into the fire and burnt with speed , , i D( As if they had been Hereticks indeed.'^ PLAGUE’S MESSENGERS: COMMUNICATING HOPE AND DESPAIR 89 Perhaps if one could identify the letter early enough and bum it, the plague within would not take hold. Decades apart, Dekker and Taylor confirm the fear that plague might travel by attaching itself to a letter. Such fears grew out of two inherited and, from a Renaissance perspective, tested systems of knowledge: one biblical, and one rooted in Galenic medicine. God could strike down in one blow whomever he wanted. He could do so in an instant, with one lightning strike — so why not with the letter? As Dekker suggests in the earlier passage, the letter might be a weapon wielded by the arm of Omnipotence. But although people believed that God was in every case the primary initiator of plague — initiating most often to punish sin — most also believed that God obeyed some rules of conduct. Specifically, God obeyed the mles of nature that he established himself The natural causes of plague were then actually the secondary causes, through which God the prime mover worked. People could monitor those secondary causes to better protect themselves, and in order to gain the greatest control, they turned to the Renaissance authority — Galen. Galenism, as we know, influenced the conception of disease for hundreds of years in western Europe. As a method for understanding the human condition with respect not to an afterlife but to nature, Galenism offered the very most scientific approach to medicine that was available, and all people from the university-trained physician to the housewife, dramatist, and servant girl, had at least a general understanding of its basic principles. For our purposes, it is enough to know that generally Galenic medicine observed the body as consisting of “naturals,” those things found naturally to compose the body, including the four humors. Directly affecting the naturals and com- ing from an external source were the non-naturals, which included air, exercise, food, drink, sleep, sex, and affections of the mind. Too much or too little of any of these non- naturals could bring about a change in the naturals, then give rise to things against nature, which were aptly called the contra-naturals and which included disease. The Galenic practitioner would attempt to eliminate the contra-natural by returning the naturals to their original state of balance through one of three methods: dietary regi- men, herbal remedy, or surgery. When it came to plague, Galen determined, and here the famed physician Ambrose Pare repeats in his Treatise of the Plague — this from the 1630 English translation — that “The generall and naturall causes of the Plague are absolutely two, that is, the infection of corrupt Aire, and a preparation and fitness of corrupt humours to take that infection” (4).^ Once the non-natural, the air in this case, affected the naturals that were already imbalanced, the body would attempt to expel the extraneous and infected humors. Buboes, carbuncles, fever, and other signs indicated that the body was attempting to push out its excess.^ All it took was an encounter between an ill-humored body and a pestilent vapor for the individual to die within days. 90 REBECCA C.N. TOTARO Pestilent vapors could stick to all bodies passing through them. For fear of such | vapors, towns were often quarantined to prevent the stirring up or tracking in of the bad ' air, and during such unhealthy times, people suspected pestilent air of tampering not just with the mail but with all exchange of information, goods, and services. Even money thought to have been possessed by a plague victim was suspect, as Thomas Dekker and Daniel Defoe, among others, confirm. Dekker tells of men who would tie newly stolen i coins into a bag at the end of a boat so that the water would wipe the plague sores off of ) the coins. ^ Over 100 years later H. F., the narrator in Daniel Defoe’s Journal of the PlagueYear, would explain at length how a citizen of London, fearful that plague had s tainted a lost money bag, made efforts to purify the money before taking it: i f In the middle of the yard lay a small leather purse with two keys hanging at it, with money in it, but nobody would meddle with it. I asked how long it had lain there; the man at the window said it had lain almost an hour, but that they had not meddled with it, because they did not know but the person who dropped it might come back to look for it. I had no such need of money, nor was the sum so big that I had any inclination to meddle with it, or to get the money at the hazard it might be attended with; so I seemed to go away, when the man who had opened the door said he would take it up, but so that if the right owner came for it he should be sure to have it. So he went in and fetched a pail of water and set it down hard by the purse, then went again and fetch some gunpowder, and cast a good deal of powder upon the purse, and then made a train from that which he had thrown loose upon the purse. The train reached about two yards. After this he goes in a third time and fetches out a pair of tongs red hot, and which he had prepared, I suppose, on purpose; and first setting fire to the train of powder, that singed the purse and also smoked the air sufficiently. But he was not content with that, but he then takes up the purse with the tongs, holding it so long till the tongs burnt through the purse, and then he shook the money out into the pail of water, so he carried it in. (87) I enjoy this passage because it strikes me as a comical routine; yet, Defoe’s narrator ^ does not tell this in jest. He describes the scene in detail in order to depict the level of i anxiety experienced by average citizens whenever they encountered an object — like a i cloth coin purse — that might be tainted by plague. In any other time, that man would : have snatched up the coin purse immediately so that no one would see, and instead he j follows a labor-intensive and highly visible method of purification. Vinegar sprinkles and lighter smokings were also recommended for purification of : potentially infected goods, but these remedies could not work against the more vicious ' form of mail tainting that people feared during the Renaissance — that which originated: in the imagination. It seems a cruel joke, but Renaissance men and women inherited the belief that emotions heightened in the imagination could make one more susceptible to VI ol qi th El ail B( of jU! ^ PLAGUE’S MESSENGERS: COMMUNICATING HOPE AND DESPAIR 91 plague (or disease in general for that matter). Essentially this meant that if your family wrote from the city during plague-time to tell you that it seemed that the plague was abating and that all members of the house were well, the very sight of the letter might stir your humors and make you more likely to catch the plague. If on the other hand, you were residing in London and you received a letter that plague seemed to be spread- ing in your direction and that one of your dear friends in the country had died from it, your sorrow might also make you more likely to catch plague. To help us understand this reasoning, it is worth returning to the Galenic under- standing of plague’s etiology: “the infection of corrupt Aire, and a preparation and fitness of corrupt humours to take that infection” were both necessary to produce symp- toms of plague (4).^ The vapors from corrupt air might stick on a letter and bring plague, but any number of things — from certain kinds of food to too much sex or lack of exer- cise and even heightened emotions — could corrupt the humors. In plague-time, even as early as 1348, doctors warned their patients of the danger of extreme emotion. Ambrose Pare explains here that. Because Medicines come oft-times too late, and this Malady is as it were a sudden and a winged Messenger of our death, it commeth to pass that so many die thereof. And moreover because at the first suspition of this so dire and cruell a Disease, the imagination and mind (whose force in the diversly stirring up of the homours is great and almost incredible) is so troubled with feare of imminent death, and despaire of health, that together with the perturbed hu- mors, all the strength and power of Nature falles and sinkes down. This you may perceive and know, by reason that the Keepers of such as are sicke, and the Bearers which are not fearfull, but verie confident, although they doe all [have] offices which may be for the sicke, are commonly not infected, and seldome dye thereof if infected. (34) :( When a person feared the plague, his or her imagination immediately acted upon the humors, weakening them, while even those exposed to breath directly from a plague victim might remain in health provided the idea of plague did not scare them. A letter from London might indeed be deadly if it spread toxic emotions. To sure up the humors, one should follow the doctors orders, as the most famous medical regimen of the time prescribes: “When Phisicke need, let these thy Doctors bee. Good dyet, quiet thoughts, heart mirthfull, free” (3).^ But who could keep their thoughts quiet or their heart mirthful in plague-time? Some of the greatest literature of the period in Europe originated in part as recreation for the mind in troubled times, a way to prevent ailments by creating mirth. Boccaccio’s Decameron is the first and best example but Ben Jonson’s The Alchemist comes to mind.'^ These comic pieces, written in the midst of plague-time, bring with them a preventative for plague in the form of laughter, and just as a pleasing play or a joyful poem could make thoughts quiet or heart mirthful and 92 REBECCA C.N. TOTARO free, so too could the letter. This reasoning is of course quite like our current belief that stress can compromise the immune system, but what differs is the immediate and par- ; ticular power of one bit of news or one piece of mail or one curse. We now instead see a host of things that weaken our systems, and while there may be “the straw that broke j the camel’s back,” we do not believe that the content of a single message has the power to kill. In the literature of plague-time, all it took was one message delivered one time. Daniel Defoe’s account of the plague kiss clarifies this for us. H.F. explains how a man, “raving mad to be sure” and sick from the plague chased down a townswoman in the street: When she see he wold overtake her, she turn’d, and gave him a Thrust so fore- ' ibly, he being but weak, and push’d him down backwardiBut very unhappily, she being so near, he caught hold of her, and pull’d her down also; and getting up first, master’d her, and kiss’d her; and which was worst of all, when he had ' done, told her he had the Plague, and why should not she have it as well as he. I She was frighted enough before, being also young with Child; but when she I heard him say, he had the Plague, she scream’d out and fell down in a Swoon, ' or in a Fit, which tho’ she recover’d a little, yet kill’d her in a very few Days, and I never heard whether she had the Plague or no. (128) H. F. concludes that this “poor unhappy Gentlewoman” was thereby “murther’d.” Whether it was the fear of plague or the literal disease passed to her by the kiss that caused her death, Defoe’s readers would see this as a death brought about by a single encounter. We do not hear that she was sinful or prone to worry or to illness. With one strike she falls. Of course, just as a kiss more often pleases than maims, the messenger’s delivery of a letter most often communicated hope and did indeed keep the country running. The recently popularized case of Galileo, who stayed in touch with his daughter by letter during time of plague, reveals the positive role that letters played. In 1633, Galileo’s • daughter, Maria Celeste, wrote to her father, explaining that although she had hoped to )| encourage him to visit her soon, she could not extend the offer after all but could only reach out to him via letter: ^ When I wrote to you. Sire, giving you an account of the contagion’s spread in , al this region, it had already very nearly ceased . . .Wherefore, with this security, ! ii I moved to exhort you and implore you to return, although in my last letter, cl hearing that things were taking a turn for the worse, I held my tongue, so to oi speak. Because, although it is very true that I have a strong desire to see you again, what I want much more is the preservation of your health and safety; and , I recognize the special grace of the Lord God in the opportunity you have had. Sire, to remain where you are much longer than you and I would have wished. ! 1 PLAGUE’S MESSENGERS: COMMUNICATING HOPE AND DESPAIR 93 It For even though I believe it must grieve you to stay on there so irresolutely, it [■ would perhaps give you far more grief for us to be reunited among these perils, e which in spite of everything continue on and may even be multiplying. (269)^^ ■g I i When it became dangerous to visit a loved one in person, the letter might travel !r instead, ideally keeping both parties intimately connected, healthy, and hopeful in a future reunion. We can only imagine the fear, if not despair, brought about in plague-time when- ever a letter was delayed. Of course, Shakespeare did this for us, when he wrote Romeo I and Juliet — a play we all know so well that we take for granted the lines “A plague on both your houses.” We forget, however, that Mercutio utters this curse four times in a row. We remember that in many ways, Romeo and Juliet’s love has proven plague- like, contributing to their deaths when Romeo mistakes Juliet’s false suicide for true. We remember that the messenger who was supposed to deliver the letter explaining all of this to Romeo is unable to do so, but we forget exactly why because what matters to us more immediately is that the letter quite simply never makes it to its destination. But as Friar John, who was playing the messenger, explains to Friar Lawrence, it is worse than that: I le le )f le Going to find a barefoot brother out. One of our order, to associate me. Here in this city visiting the sick. And finding him, the searchers of the town. Suspecting that we both were in a house Where the infectious pestilence did reign, [They] Seal’d up the doors, and would not let us forth; So that my speed to Mantua there was stay’d I could not send it; — here it is again — Nor get a messenger to bring it thee, So fearful were they of infection. (5.2.5-16)'^ Friar John fails to deliver and, as his name confirms, Mercutio is a more successful messenger in this plague-time play than Friar John is. Mercutio’s repeated curse brings about a literal plague that tampers with the mail. The plague hand delivers Mercutio’s message while refusing to carry any others. The audience hears this message loud and clear: in plague-time, a letter can deliver death as easily as it can impart health. A plague on both your houses might arrive with the mail. i 94 REBECCA C.N. TOTARO I j Works Cited Bacon, Francis. Sylva Sylvarum in The Works of Francis Bacon. Ed. James Spedding, Robert L. Ellis, and Dou- ■ glas D. Heath. 14 vols. London: Longman, 1857-74; rpt New York: Garrett Press, 1968. Beale, Philip A Historx of the Post in England from the Romans to the Stuarts. Aldershot, England; Brookfield, VT, 1998. Brown, Christopher. Getting the Message: Story of the British Post Office. Dover, NH; Phoenix Mill, UK: Alan Sutton, 1993. Dekker, Thomas. The Plague Pamphlets of Thomas Dekker. 1925. Ed. F. P. Wilson. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1971. Guillen, Claudio. “Notes toward the Study of the Renaissance Letter.” Renaissance Genres: Essays on Theory,^ j Historx, and Interpretation. Harvard English Studies 14. Ed. Barbara Keifer Lewalski. Cambridge, MA: Harvard* UP, 1986. 70-101. Marie Celeste, “No. 94 18 June 1633.” The Letters of Marie Celeste. Trans. Dava Sobel. The Galileo Project.^ ' Rice University. April 4, 2003. http://es.rice.edu/ES/humsoc/. ! Pare, Ambrose. A treatise of the plague contayning the causes, signes, symptomes, prognosticks, and cure thereof: together with sundry other remarkable passages (for the prevention of, and preservation from the pestilence) i| never yet published by anie man / collected out of the workes of the no lesse learned than experimented cind^ renowned chirurgian Ambrose Parey. 1630. J| Robinson, Howard. The British Post Office: A History (Princeton: Princeton Univ. Press, 1948). , \ . Carrying British Mails Overseas. NY: New York University Press, 1964. Samman, Neil. “The Progresses of Henry the Eighth: 1509-29.” In The Reign of Henry VIII: Politics, Policy andj Piety. Ed. Diarmaid MacCulloch. New York: St. Martin’s, 1995. c' Shakespeare, William. Romeo and Juliet, in The Norton Shakespeare. Ed. Stephen Greenblatt (NY: Norton, 1997). ■ Taylor, John. “The Eearefull Summer or London’s Calamity, the Countries Courtesy, and both their Misery.” " 1625. Willcocks, R. M. England’s Postal History to 1840. Perth, Scotland: Woods of Perth, 1975. PLAGUE’S MESSENGERS: COMMUNICATING HOPE AND DESPAIR 95 Notes 1. Samman, Neil. “The Progresses of Henry the Eighth: 1509-29.” In The Reign of Henry VIII: Politics, Policy and Piety. Ed. Diarmaid MacCulloch (New York: St. Martin’s, 1995), p. 71. 2. For historical accounts of the post in England, see Philip Beale, A History of the Post in England from the Romans to the Stuarts, (Aldershot, England; Brookfield, VT, 1998); Claudio Guillen, “Notes toward the Study of the Renaissance Letter,” Renaissance Genres: Essays on Theory, History, and Interpretation. Harvard English Studies 14. Ed. Barbara Keifer Lewalski. (Cambridge, MA: Harvard UP, 1986): 70-101; Howard Robinson, Carrying British Mails Overseas (NY: New York University Press, 1964); Christopher Brown, Getting the Message: Story of the British Post Office (Dover, NH; Phoeniz Mill, UK, 1993); R. M. Willcocks, England’s Postal History to 1840 (Perth, Scotland: Woods of Perth, 1975); Howard Robinson, The British Post Office: A History (Princeton: Princeton Univ. Press, 1948). 3. Dekker, Thomas. The Plague Pamphlets of Thomas Dekker. 1925. Ed. F. P. Wilson. (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1971), p. 59. 4. John Taylor the Water Poet, “The Fearefull Summer or London’s Calamity, the Countries Courtesy, and both their Misery” (1625). 5. Ambrose Pare, A treatise of the plague contayning the causes, signes, symptomes, prognosticks, and cure thereof : together with sundry other remarkable passages (for the prevention of, and preserx’ation from the pestilence) never yet published by anie man / collected out of the workes of the no lesse learned than experi- mented and renowned chirurgian Ambrose Parey (1630). 6. For a discussion of contending medical theories on plague, see Walter Pagel’s Paracelsus: An Introduction to Philosophical Medicine in the Era of the Renaissance (Basel, Switzerland: S. Karger, 1958), pp. 172-189, and Wade Oliver’s Stalkers of Pestilence: The Story of Man’s Ideas of Infection (Maryland: McGrath Pub- lishing Company, 1970), pp. 49-123. Written in 1930, Wade’s book is quite learned, covering theories on contagion with emphasis on plague from Hippocrates to Ehrlich, but its sound presentation is unfortunately 7. Dekker, p. 59, and see p. 3; For mention of plague-infected letters, see John Taylor, p. 15. 8. See note 5. 9. Regimen sanitatis Salemi: or. The schoole of Salernes regiment of health by Joannes, de Mediolano. 1634. For more on the two causes of plague, see Pare who comments on the particular susceptibility of military men who were infected at once: “there were manifest signes of corruption and putrefaction, in the Blood let the same day . . . .from no other cause then an evill constitution of the Aire, and the Minds of the Souldiers perverted by Hate, Anger, and Fear” (9). Francis Bacon wrote in roughly the same decade that “As in infec- tion and contagion from body to body (as the plague and the like) it is most certain that the infection is received (many times) by the body passive, but yet is by the strength and good disposition thereof repulsed and wrought out, before it be formed into a disease” (Sylva Sylvarum in The Works of Erancis Bacon, ed. James Spedding, Robert L. Ellis, and Douglas D. Heath, 14 vols. [London: Longman, 1857-74; rpt New York: Garrett Press, 1968], 2.641. 10. For additional examples of literature used to strengthen the body against disease, see Glending Olson, Eit- erature as Recreation in the Later Middle Ages (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1982). 1 1. Marie Celeste, “No. 94 18 June 1633.” The Letters of Marie Celeste. Trans. Dava Sobel. The Galileo Project. Rice University. April 4, 2003. http://es.rice.edu/ES/humsoc/Galileo/MariaCeleste/Letters/094-6_l 8_33.shtml. 12. William Shakespeare, Romeo and Juliet, in The Norton Shakespeare. Ed. Stephen Greenblatt (NY: Norton, 1997). 96 ■ iV| , w^/vvi-jiaa. J^'arjaA. n fUW NOTES ■ ■‘■‘i ft<)4/1 :YH) xi-w f.> ' tanVi 'S Aiv.h^V ‘ ■ vw'oft :(>'>'^? d- /< Tr, l’»lTafh»';w» Ot»V ,K>'^|' fw4fc*«i(>i jidfl <* *f t'.tiliioin' vv : ;.x \j,,- , ‘I. ^ ^ . i >1 ' '. .'.r,/ ' ‘|i|.mr\)«*f *1frt»Ort».N4i W2i'4^ r^ti. 4 ■* ^' ***‘^‘*^^ ^fv r>!:. - '■*" „';' |*'....ijf^ . . tj ^ '»4. 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I WfUJ’ viK«!ai«».i| .ift- v M t/iiiJJ ,J t -.iu:n ,;4n)'u&0(^ ' >’ .A ^4.' ,is«r{ «TrtfcO . ■; -jl s'Vl 'it ^ ‘>W C.str'i 'Wt^gn nt% 0? WHii'liirv't«« v'tiK V>. ‘“lT*!^iff* j ' > U ^ufnn 'j itjiatil f- *»% ' ■ S 'uH M t ^ •»' ■ 'H*'’* ^ !Mb’(l in#.) Mt tW ) ^hhUV^^ .InitWl* // n ' ^..V..%#»‘Ar- -jr^ J\3j> K r'kv.T/V^MY. r .U)i>C ^i' ? *-> ;> jrM;»* jit i 1<'*» i^i t Xi.^ *«U»3;?■• ?t';.' •..4, _ .rrm.-vfc-i Altar: . .. ^>1.., <'4 . . f^f^-^' ri',- 4:*“^*’' li|» ■ • • . » .^^I'.r'iiy-.... ,' -' >.L!*«.rl ' »•* 'i'», r-. vfv, Mftr 4 .. 1 ir.; . , . k"^ .7, . i , (1 _ s» P M 'j-. m.U :V - ' . p pi 5 1 I..1'';.|1' i*j i** 'M~ W t i'*^ ^ jKtnii ■■+ , i i■•:‘:l«■^lWu, ! K X . i ' ^ > • ’ “i /x ttvnu i ,, ^ vtr it: » •■ 1 ‘ i rf;j(v.l!' -.1 '■. : V.:' M - i ' • •- . : : _ ikf v*,»n 4 • / ; .- . . / • ♦'• a ’ • 'ii, . hi .v:4tt- I i|l*jitflmf^|> v',^ ■■ .tii>»‘:^V' .ftt^iu ' ... iiJ OmiPiyiiU >V.riri .Ml '«iMiBiCJii«^ V-'- ^ ,' * 4. V »'■ » - . • il' C/l^Witisp , .. V, *|i,y h , i - -1 i! > •«»:■ *r7 liill^SMWII m # W.X'" < ‘'fr»M« ,. 'VI* ft A W.l.'V ‘ ' '■-'■> i ft. ri >•■ ■%4- I' U .*. -f. 1 I V*-:"' < .♦♦p 1: tL.‘. ■■ ■H i ►f «t DELEGATES TO THE WASHINGTON ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, REPRESENTING THE LOCAL AFFILIATED SOCIETIES Acoustical Society of America VACANT ntemational/American Association of Dental Research J. Terrell Hoffeld American Association of Physics Teachers Frank R. Haig American Ceramic Society Laurie George American Fisheries Society Elizabeth D. Haynes American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Fred Adler American Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Exploration Michael Greeley American Meteorological Society Paul C. Etter American Nuclear Society VACANT American Society for Microbiology VACANT American Society of Civil Engineers R. A. Rothblum American Society of Mechanical Engineers Daniel J. Vavrick American Society of Plant Physiology VACANT Anthropological Society of Washington Marilyn R. 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Honig Washington Paint Technical Group VACANT Washington Society of Engineers Carl Gaum Washington Statistical Society Michael P. Cohen World Future Society Vary Coates Washington Academy of Sciences Room 637 1200 New York Ave., N.W. Washington, DC 20005 Return Postage Guaranteed Journal of the 1998 100 YEARS ^1898 MCZ library MAR 1 5 2004 HARVARD U^UVERSITY VOLUME 89 Numbers 3 & 4 FallAVinter, 2003 ISSN 0043-0439 Issued Quarterly at Washington, DC CONTENTS Articles: The Editor Comments i Joseph F. Coates, Where Science is Headed — Sixteen Trends 97 Barbara F. Howell and Herbert Uberall, Measurement and Analysis of the Permittivity and Permeability of Siloxane Containing Metal Helices 105 Philippe V. Baret, Marc Dubuisson, Anne-Catherine Lantin, and Caroline Mace, Experimental Phylogenetic Analysis of a Greek Manuscript Tradition 117 Martin Schwab, Constructing a Planetary Defense Regime to Reduce International Terrestrial Insecurity 125 Alain Touwaide, Natures’s Medicine Cabinet: Notes on Botanical Therapeutics at the Birth of the New World 141 ^asljinston Stabemp of Sciences Founded in 1898 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE President Michael Cohen President Elect Peg Kay Treasurer Frank R. Haig Secretary Barbara Safranak Past President Marilyn R. London Vice President, Membership Affairs Pedro Kanof Vice President, Administrative Affairs Sajjad H. Durrani Vice President, Junior Academy Affairs Paul L. Hazan Vice President, Affiliate Affairs Doug Witherspoon Editor of the Journal Vary T. Coates Board of Managers Jerry Chandler Bob Creveling Vary T. Coates Roy Lindquist John Proctor Thomas E. Smith REPRESENTATIVES FROM AFFILIATED SOCIETIES Delegates are listed on inside rear cover of each Journal. ACADEMY OFFICE Washington Academy of Sciences Room 637 1200 New York Ave., N. W. Washington, DC 20005 Phone (202) 326-8975 FAX (202) 289-4950 Email was@aaas.org Web http://www.washacadsci.org The Journal This Journal, the official organ of the Washing- ton Academy of Sciences, publishes original scientific research, critical reviews, historical articles, proceedings of scholarly meetings of its affiliated societies, reports of the Academy, and other items of interest to Academy mem- bers. The Journal appears four times a year (March, June, September and December). The December issue contains a directory of the cur- rent membership of the Academy. Subscription Rates Memberships, fellows, and life members in good standing receive the Journal without charge. Subscriptions are available on a calendar year basis, payable in advance. Payment must be made in U.S. currency at the following rates: U.S. and Canada $25.00 Other Countries 30.00 Single copies, when available 10.00 Claims for Missing Issues Claims will not be allowed if received more than 60 days after the day of mailing plus time normally required for postal delivery and claim. No claims will be allowed because of failure to notify the Academy of a change of address. Notification of Change of Address Address changes should be sent promptly to the Academy Office. Such notification should show both old and new addresses and zip codes. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to Washington Academy of Sciences, Room 637, 1200 New York Ave., N.W, Washington, DC 20005. Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences (ISSN 0043-0439) Published by the Washington Academy of Sciences, (202) 326-8975. The Editor Comments \ i I ? This double issue, dated fall/winter, 2003, allows us to bring the Journal I back into schedule. We expect now to resume regular publication of four issues 1 a year. Because we are going to press in the first week of the new year 2004, it is i appropriate to begin this issue with a look ahead. “Where Science is Headed — Sixteen Trends,” by futurist Joe Coates, is based on his presentation to the Academy’s annual reception, in November, for the presidents and delegates of our sixty affiliated societies (see list on inside back cover). Research reports in this issue are in physics and philology, the former contributed by scientists from the Naval Surface Warfare Center in the Washington metropolitan area, the latter from a distinguished European uni- versity. Our science policy focus is represented here by a proposal for the diplo- I made establishment of a “planetary defense regime” to alert nations to, and I ultimately protect us against, the threat of collisions between Earth and objects I in near-earth orbits, including asteroids, comets, and man-made debris. We ! invite readers to respond to this proposal with brief comments to be considered for publication. Finally, we continue our look to the history of science with a paper on botanical therapeutics in the centuries surrounding the settlement of the New World. The Washington Academy of Sciences and its Affiliated Scientific Societies eagerly anticipate the Capital Science meeting to be held in March of 2004. Please join us there; you will find continually refreshed information about this event on our Web page, www.washacadsci.org. And as always, readers are urged to submit papers to the journal by contacting the editor at vcoates@concentric.net or editors@washacadsci.org. Vary T. Coates 1 H L - «VKC’JtI\ I. . \ :n kV*H , *‘ ■' it ‘ Ai ■ '.3^’ 'fVrawait'-;' t;C: ..,.v ...1, i'-v' r|Kf[>#flUCl|w I, iht af^r>»iJl) •Ti;^ll _ 4:1: ,8in96‘it^i^i^l\i'^ jflW/l^^'oqoiq a <<1 $iori -tuO j tui' ‘qT^^iufeijn J^stis crt ' ^iiiig^i •»»'n5>sb Y;jBl3nEl’bris1|ni;a nsrjirJsd ?.fii>i^ii!o5 in ;«3Tf1i ariJ ,t^i^s^u iiLi joalcnq x^«fc!frr|f| ‘iW( yiiiroriiferti bfiK ,^100103 .aJ-jimstKB gnifowloai ,^).ito3ivAvj .apt} ttK> no inyv© .if, . .Va t ,ffjt.,v J7.\» brili^i oid «i^>trw TduiKffiWf i "' f4’V ;r^ »^C‘;rrMASTlJi- '>'ai*tiHXSOfi Ad -1W<. ^ 7>;r' i.tl ;v fiSStv ^)4?9> ‘^"♦Hvbod try if^ .ay> .*? 5yiti?n in 2 tr 1 - UJ CL 0 -1 (a) (b) 10 GHz 12 10 GHz 12 f Figure 1. (a) Real and imaginary parts of s vs. frequency for a 1.65mm unloaded siloxance matrix. ( (b) Same for p. £ 6 > 1^ cc UJ Q- 2 €’ - €" I 1 « . 1 . , . . , 8 9 10 GHz 11 12 (a) (b) Figure 2. (a) Real and imaginary parts of 8 vs. frequency for a racemic mixture of 3% by volume two- turn copper-wire helices imbedded in a 1.55mm thick siloxane matrix, (b) Same for p. 108 BARBARA F. HOWELL, HERBERT UBERALL 8 ^ 6 > UJ Q. 2 0 -1 €' €" 10 GHz 11 12 (a) Figure 3. (a) Real and imaginary parts of e vs. frequency for a racemic mixture of 3% by volume four- turn copper-wire helices imbedded in a 2.25mm thick siloxane matrix, (b) Same for p. j Helicity effects are, however, strongly apparent in Figure 4, corresponding to two-turn left-handed helices imbedded in a 1.35 thick siloxane matrix, as well as in Figure 5 corresponding to four-turn left-handed helices in a 2.45mm thick siloxane matrix. In Figure 4, two resonances are apparent for the two-turn helices, at fi = | 8.066 GHz and at f2 = 1 1.888 GHz, for e' interfering destructively with the 8b' = 4.0 j background value between the resonances, and for s" rising above the 8b" = 0.0 null- 1 background value. This is also the case for p" (null background value p'b), while the j p' resonances interfere constructively with the p'b = 1-0 background value. It is j remarkable that the presence of metal helices engenders these magnetic effective j properties of a sample where siloxane is a naturally non-magnetic medium. Figure 4. (a) Real and imaginary parts of 8 vs. frequency for 3% by volume two-turn left-handed copper-wire helices imbedded in a 1.35mm thick siloxane matrix, (b) Same for p. MEASUREMENT AND ANALYSIS OF SILOXANE 109 Figure 5. (a) Real and imaginary parts of 8 vs. frequency for 3% by volume four-turn left-handed copper-wire helices imbedded in a 2.45mm thick siloxane matrix, (b) Same as for p. In Figure 5, only one resonance appears for the four- turn helices at fs = 10.558 GHz, for 8' interfering with the 8b' =" 4.0 background at an intermediate phase angle (different from 180°) and for 8" rising above the 8b" = 0.0 null-background. No such i resonance is visible in either p' or p"; this fact is not understood, since a resonance I might well have been expected. I Analysis I We first consider the data of Figure 4(a) and (b) that present, respectively, the ij measured values of the permittivity 8 = 8' + ie" (separately for 8' and for 8") and of the permeability p = p' + ip" (separately for p' and for p") of our samples containing ! two-turn helices, measured over the frequency range of 7.5 GHz to 12.5 GHz. Two resonances appear in each of the four mentioned quantities, the lower one located at ;| fi = 8.066 GHz and the upper one at f2 = 11.888 GHz. Away from these resonances I values, the data are, within experimental accuracy, compatible with a background f value of 8b = 4.0 + Oi and p = 1 .0 + Oi which is also close to the measured data for the siloxane matrix alone (Figure 1), (variations from 8b arising from the lack of metal ■ content of the matrix), and especially to those for siloxane containing racemic mixtures of helices, both two-turn (Figure 2) and four-turn (Figure 3). This indicates that siloxane with imbedded helices may be considered an effective medium, whose effective values of 8 and p will, outside the resonances, be taken here as having the background values 8b = 4.0 +0i and pb = 1.0 + Oi. At the resonances themselves. Figure 4 for the two-turn helices provides the val- ues shown in Table 1 for 8 and p. Since subsequently the product 8p will be consid- ered, Table 1 lists the resonance values for this quantity also. Our analysis of the resonance values follows the single-scattering theory of Bohren et al. (1992), which ; was first developed for non-helical scatterers as quoted by Bohren and Huffman (1983), and then adapted for helical scatterers by Bohren et al. (1992). In this latter analysis, electromagnetic waves traversing a slab that contains more or less uni- no BARBARA F. HOWELL, HERBERT UBERALL formly distributed chiral inclusions (of number N per unit volume) are shown to propagate only in the form of right ( R) or left (L) circularly polarized components with effective wave numbers kt.R = k[ 1 + i (27tN/k^) ± (2rtN/k^) ( 1 ) where k is the incident wave number in the ambient medium, I I = (X.ex)0.o (2a) ; = (Y.ey)0 = o (2b) j I Cx and Cy being orthonormal vectors orthogonal to the incident wave, and X is the | vector scattering amplitude for a single inclusion illuminated by a wave polarized j along Cx with 0 = 0 the forward scattering angle. Equation (1) is correct not only for | the case of randomly oriented chiral inclusions for which it was used by Bohren et al. ; ( 1 992), but for the case of any chirality orientation, as our repetition of the derivation ' of this equation (Bohren et al., 1992; 1983) has shown. It is valid for a sufficiently | dilute suspension, and for particle sizes small compared with the wavelength. It should be noted that the definition for right or left circular polarization is here taken as the “optical” one (Jackson, 1975), i.e. the wave with polarization vector Cx + iCy is left, and with Cx - iCy is right circularly polarized. Table I. Measured Resonances Values of /„, s and for 2-Tum Helices, and Quantities Based There- upon. ^res) /i = 8.066 GHz /2- 11.888GHz 8 2.8 + 0.9i 3.3 + 0.8i 1.2 + 0.3i 1.2 + 0.2i 8p 3.09+ 1.92i 3.80+ 1.62i Re(8p)^^^ 1.83 1.99 1.64 X 10'®cm/s 1.51 X 10‘Ws 2.03 cm 1.27 cm Maxwell’s equations are generalized for a chiral medium to read (Varadan et al., 1987; Bohren et al., 1992): D = 8E + 8p V X B = pH + pP V xH (3) in which, besides 8 and p, a third parameter P (chirality parameter) is present. Plane harmonic solutions of these equations propagate as left- or right-circularly polarized waves with wave number kL,R = co(E0)"V[l + Men)’'"] (4a) CO being the circular frequency; the chirality parameter is thus: MEASUREMENT AND ANALYSIS OF SILOXANE 111 P=>/2(kR-‘-kL-‘). (4b) Furthermore, Vep can be related to kL,R as follows. For sufficiently dilute suspensions for which Equation (1) is valid, this equation may be exponentiated to read; kuR = ke’'<'"’‘=’ (5a) where Y = 2;tN/k^ (5b) Equation (4) then leads to (8p)eff = (8p)bexp(2iY)/cosh^Y, (6a) P = k‘' exp(-iY)sinhY. (6b) Next, we shall evaluate the seattering amplitudes and for a metal helix of high eonductivity . Formulas for these scattering amplitudes for straight conducting wires, at the resonance amplitudes, were obtained by Cross (1969) as quoted by Peebles (1984). Our approach will consist in shaping this wire into a helix, and integrating the scattering amplitude over the helix. It was shown by Lindman (1920) and Tinoco and Freeman (1957) that the resonance frequencies are determined by the length of the wire f: The fundamental resonance corresponds to a standing wave of half a wave- length spanning the length of the wire in the helix, the first overtone to a full wave- length, the second to one and a half wavelengths, and so forth. These waves on wires are known as “traveling waves” while propagating (Guo and Uberall, 1994), and when back-reflected by the wire ends to form standing waves as mentioned, reso- nances ensue. Our analysis will be based on this picture. Accordingly, we obtain the wavelengths of the standing waves along the wire in the helix X\ or X2, at the two measured resonance frequencies fi and f2, respectively (Table 1), from the formula ^l,2 = Ceff*'-'V/,,2 (7a) where the effective traveling- wave phase speeds to be calculated at the resonances, are given by Ceff=c/Re(£p)''^ (7b) with Re denoting the real part, and c the free-space light velocity = 3 x 10'®cm/s. The latter are entered in Table 1, as well as the resonance values Xi,2. From these follows: X,/£= 1.85 = 2 >.2/£= 1.15 = 1, (8a) (8b) 112 BARBARA F. HOWELL, HERBERT UBERALL showing that the first resonance constitutes the fundamental standing-wave resonance along the wire, and the second one constitutes the first overtone. The minor deviations from exact integers in Equations (8) are also evident in the l optical-rotation analysis of Tinoco and Freeman (1957), as well as in the analysis of ] the power absorption coefficient of Ro et al. (1992). In the latter reference, the ratio I of at the there-observed resonance was determined as | = 0.6037 S '/2 (9a) 1 but where L was defined as the wirelength per turn of the helix. Since three-turn helices were used, one has £ = 3L and Equation (9a) identifies the resonance ob- served by Ro et al. (1992) as the second overtone, £ S (3/2)X<^“>, (9b) of the standing-wave resonances of this helix. Our reasoning indicates that XU is the physical quantity identifying the character of the resonances, rather than Xll. taken over one turn of the helix, as was done by Ro et al. (1992). This latter quantity has no direct physical meaning, nor does it constitute a universal parameter for the design of microwave chiral absorbers since it depends on the overtone character of the reso- nance under consideration. The scattering amplitudes for a straight wire (“dipole”) of length f are quoted by Peebles (1984) as | dipoie = (r|/7iY)cos^ 0d{[cos(7rfX'* sinBdSinOd) -cos(7rfY^)]^ j *[l-sin^edsin20d]‘^} (10a) ] dipoie = (ri/7rY)cos0dSin0dCosOd { [cos(7rf >9'^sin0dsin(l)d)-cos(7rf r^)]^ | *[l-sin^0dSin^Od]'^} (10b) where the dipole orientation is (0dd>d), and the coefficients are given as q = 12071 and for the first three resonances, the value of the constant Y is (Peebles, 1984): (;tm),=7i/2,Y| = 73.0n (11a) (ti £/X)2 = 71, Yj = 224.6D (11b) (ti £/X)3 = 371/2, Yj = 105.4n (1 Ic) Of these, the quantity Y2 was not determined a-priori by Peebles (1984), but by an empirical fit to a model-dependent calculation. Since this value in Equation (lib) does not present a logical sequence in Equation (11), we prefer to adopt below the average between Yi and Y3, namely Y2 = 89.2 Q (lid) r I MEASUREMENT AND ANALYSIS OF SILOXANE 1 13 ^ which leads to reasonable results in our subsequent analysis. Working at the resonance frequencies of our helices, we obtain the helix-values i of Equation (10) by integrating over the helix shapes (the helix axis being the z ' direction), hei.x = (Nri/7tY„)lo"’'d(l)d sin^O {[cos(7ifA.‘^ cos0 sin d)d)-cos(7rf?i'^)]^ *[l-cos^0sin^Od]‘^} (12a) heiix = (Nrj/Ti: Yn) dOdSinB cos0 cosOd* {[cos(7rfr^cos0 sin(I)d)-cos(7rf}i‘^)]^ ^[iWesin^Od]'^} (12b) where N is the number of turns of the helix, 0 its pitch angle, n indicates the overtone number of the resonance under consideration, f = 27rNa/cos0 (13a) the length of the wire in the helix, a the helical cylinder radius, and we also have tan0 = h/27rNa (13b) where h is the helical cylinder length. The integrals in Equation (12) have been evaluated numerically for the two reso- nances of our two-turn helices given in Table 1. Table 2 lists the calculated values of the quantities indicated; the values of y. Equation (5b), are based on a density of inclusions N = 38.2 cm'^ The calculated values of ep follow from Equation (6a). These agree reasonably well with the experimental values of ep shown in Table 1. It is noted that the calculated resonance values of are zero; Equation (6b) then shows that the resonance values of peff vanish. This is in agreement with the chirality parameter, as a function of frequency, undergoing a zero crossing at the resonance (Bahr and Clausing, 1994). Table 2. Calculated Resonance Values for 2-Tum Helices. y(res) /i - 8.066 GHz /2 = 11.888 GHz y 6.225 1.944 0.0390 0.0523 0 0 lk 0.485 0.203 Z\l 3.5 + 1.9i 3.9 + 0.9i For our four-turn helices, the resonance appearing in 8, Figure 5(a), at the fre- I quency 10.558 GFIz can be identified as a second-overtone resonance. The absence of a corresponding resonance in p. Figure 5(b), is not understood (although a reso- 114 BARBARA F. HOWELL, HERBERT UBERALL nance would have been expeeted) and therefore, no analysis as in the foregoing has ■ been attempted for this case. As a final note, the absence of any resonanee effects apparent in the racemic mix- i tures. Figs. 2 and 3, can be explained from our analysis also. We have already seen ( that = 0 at the resonance frequency; this leads, from Equation (4), to i | ki = Icr and p = 0 at the resonance itself, but not outside the resonanees (Bahr and Clausing, 1994). However, the integration in our Equation (12) is such that if an | ] equal number of right-handed and left-handed helices are present, i.e., the integration | is taken as one-half (0,2n) and one-half (0,-27c), not only = 0, leading to , El = Er and p = 0 (no effective chirality present), but also = 0, so that from Equation (6) we also have (8p)eff = (£p)b, leading to the absence of resonances. The ^ same argument can also be shown to hold if the helices are not oriented along the z direction, but, e.g., have random orientations. Conclusions In the present experiment, measuring the values of 8 and p in samples of parallel copper helices (both left-handed or racemic) imbedded in siloxane as a function of frequency in the 7.5 - 12.5 GHz region, two resonances were observed in the two- tum-helix sample and one resonance in the four-turn sample. Except for two reso- nances having been seen in the free-space measurements of the optical activity by Tinoco and Freeman (1957), this is the first case of more than one resonance appear- I ing in a modem helicity experiment. Based on the arguments of Lindman (1920) and Tinoco and Freeman (1957), these physical explanations of the resonances have been provided here as being due to standing waves (Guo and Uberall, 1994) set up along the overall length f of the helical wire, the resonance orders corresponding to a fundamental standing wave of | one-half wavelength spanning f, and the overtones to 1, 3/2, 2, 5/2... wavelengths spanning f. In this way, our two 2-tum-helix resonances were identified as the fundamental and first overtone, our single 4-tum-helix resonance as the second overtone, and the resonances of Bahr and Clausing ( 1 994) as a fundamental, and of i Ro, Varadan and Varadan (1992) as a second overtone again. The arguments and numerical illustrations of Bohren et al. (1992) seem to indi- cate a relative insensitivity of reflection or absorption coefficients of the chiral sample to the actual degree of helicity of the inclusions, provided only that the overall length of the wires ^ is kept the same. However, the volume concentrations of the helical inclusions do have a strong influence on the power of absorption coeffi- cient of the sample, as is evident from Figure 5(a) of Ro et al. (1992). That this should be so, is trivially obvious from our Equation (6a) which depends on the volume coneentration N via the parameter X. I MEASUREMENT AND ANALYSIS OF SILOXANE 115 s Acknowledgements The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support provided by Bruce Douglas, head of the In-House Laboratory Independent Research Office of the “ i Carderock Division, Naval Surface Warfare Center under Program Element 61 152N, ‘ Project No. 1-2844-100. We also wish to acknowledge the help of Jonas Lodge and Scott Browning of the Naval Research Laboratory who performed the measurements of permittivity and permeability, as well as the assistance of Joseph W. Dickey who performed numeri- cal calculations of integrals appearing in the text. References Bahr, A. J., and Clausing, K. R. (1944). An approximate model for artificial chiral material. IEEE Trans. Antennas Propag., 42: 1592-1599. [ Bohren, C. F., and Huffman, D. R. (1983). Absorption and Scattering of Light by Small Particles. Wiley- ' Interscience: New York, NY, pp. 77-79. Bohren, C. F., Luebbers, R., Scott Langdon, H., and Hunsberger, F. (1992). Microwave absorbing chiral composites: Is chirality essential or accidental? Appl. Optics, 31: 6403-6407. Cross, J. L. (1969). Response of arrays to stochastic fields, PhD dissertation. University of Florida, Gaines- ville, FL. I Drude, P. (1900). Lehrbuch der Optik, p. 368. I Guire, T., Varadan, V. V. and Varadan, V. K. (1990). Influence of chirality on the reflection of EM waves by planar dielectric slabs. IEEE Trans. Electrom. Compatib. 32: 300-303. Guo, Y. and Uberall, H. (1994). The resonance effect of a wire in response to transient waves. J. Electrom. Waves Applic., 8: 355-366. Hollinger, R. D., Varadan, V. V., Ghodgaonkar, D. K., and Varadan, V. K. (1992). Experimental characteriza- tion of isotropic chiral composites in circular waveguides. Radio. Sci., 27: 161-168. ! Jackson, J. D. (1975). Classical Electrodynamics, 2"‘^ edition: Wiley: New York, N.Y., p. 274. , Jaggard, D. L., Mickelson, A. R., and Papas, C. H. (1979). On electromagnetic waves in chiral media. Appl. Phys. 18: 211-216. Jaggard, D. L. and Engheta, N. (1989). Chirosorb™ as an invisible medium. Electronics Lett. 25: 173-174. : Kong, J. A. (Ed.), Proceedings PIERS, 1991. Cambridge, MA, July 1-5, 1991, Sessions 2P8 and 3A4, pp. 293, 329. : Lindman, K. F. (1920). Uber eine durch ein isotropes System von spiralformigen Resonatoren erzeugte Rotationspolarisation der elektromagnetischen Wellen. Ann. Phys. Chem., 63: 621-644. I Lindman, K. F. (1922). Uber die durch ein actives Raumgitter erzeugte Rotationspolarisation der elektromag- netischen Wellen. Ann. Phys. Chem., 69: 270-284. Luebbers, R., Scott Langdon, H., Hunsberger, F., Bohren, C. F., and Yoshikawa, S. (1995). Calculation and measurement of the effective chirality parameter of a composite chiral material over a wide frequency band. IEEE Trans. Antennas Propagat., 43: 123-130. Peebles, P. Z., Jr. (1984). Bistatic radar cross sections of chaff. IEEE Trans. Aerosp. Electron. Systems, 20: 128-140. j Priou, Alain (1989). Free space microwave measurement techniques for composite materials. Talk presented at the French Embassy, Washington, DC, July 20, 1989. I Priou, A. and Roques, S. (1991). NDT on chiral media. Proceedings PIERS (Progress in Electromagnetics . Research Symposium), 1991 (J. A. Kong, Ed.), Cambridge, MA, July 1-5, 1991, p. 298. 116 BARBARA F. HOWELL, HERBERT UBERALL ]0 Ro, R., Varadan, V. V., and Varadan, V. K. (1992). Electromagnetic activity and absorption in microwave chiral composites. lEE Proceed. -//, 139: 441-448. Timmerman, A., Dauwen, J., Van Craenendonck, M., and Pues, H. (1991) Microwave chiral absorbers: Some experimental results. Proceedings PIERS, 1991 (J. A. Kong, Ed.), Cambridge, MA, July 1-5, 1991, p. 297. Tinoco, 1. Jr. and Freeman, M. P. (1957). The optical activity of oriented copper helices, I. Experimental. J. Phys. Chem.,6\: 1196-1200. Tinoco, 1. Jr. and Woody, R. W. (1960). Optical rotation of oriented helices. II. Calculation of the rotary dispersion of the a helix. J. Chem. Phys., 32: 461. Umari, M. H., Varadan, V. V., and Varadan, V. K. (1991). Rotation and dichroism associated with microwave propagation in chiral composite samples. Radio Sci., 26: 1327-1334. Varadan, V. K., Varadan, V. V., and Lakhtakia, A. (1987) On the possibility of designing anti-reflection coatings using chiral composites. J. Wave. Mater. Interact. 2: 71-82. Varadan, V. K. and Varadan, V. V. (1990). Electromagnetic shielding and absorptive materials. United States Patent No. 4,948,922, August 14, 1990. Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences, Volume 89, Numbers 3 & 4, 1 17-124, FallAVinter 2003 Experimental Phylogenetic Analysis of a Greek Manuscript Tradition Philippe V. Baret/ Ph.D. Universite Catholique de Louvain Marc Dubuisson Universite Catholique de Louvain Anne-Catherine Lantin, Ph.D. Universite Catholique de Louvain Caroline Mace ,Ph.D. Katholieke Universiteit Leuven Abstract The manuscript tradition of Gregory of Nazianzus’ Homily 27 was used as a case-study to illustrate how phylogenetic methods may be applied to philological problems. Using this Greek text, we have compared three methods: two statistical methods of classifica- tion (multidimensional scaling and clustering) and a phylogenetic method used in biol- ogy. Multidimensional scaling and clustering do not make any assumption on the sequence of events explaining the different states of the text and are exclusively based on similarities between objects. On the other hand, the phylogenetic method compares dif- ferent arrangements of objects and validates the arrangement (tree) requiring the smallest number of changes (evolutionary events) as the most probable. In our case, phylogeny proved to be an extremely efficient tool to classify different states of a text. Beyond this practical interest, strong conceptual parallels may be drawn between philology and bio- logical phylogeny. Both disciplines aim to classify objects (living beings or manuscripts) and to reconstruct the sequence of events explaining the present diversity. They share common theoretical assumptions and difficulties (homoplasies, contamination) but di- verge on some points. Phylogeny is an efficient tool but convergences and divergences between philology and biology remain to be critically discussed in order to make it a fully appropriate tool. Introduction Over the last few years, it has not been unusual to read articles written by phi- lologists and biologists together. Phylogenetic approaches appear to be a very powerful tool, not only in the field of biology but also in philology.^ Most pagan texts from Antiquity are known only through a very narrowly pre- served manuscript tradition. Some even escaped by chance from irremediable disappearance.^ Moreover, for these texts, there is rarely any direct witness at all 118 PHILIPPE BARET, MARC DUBUISSON, ANNE LANTIN, CAROLINE MACE before the ninth century or later, which means a gap of several centuries between the time the text was written and the time from when we may reconstruct its history. This scheme is rather different from the transmission of a medieval text, of which manu- scripts may be contemporary. It is also different from the tradition of a Christian late antique writer, whose works are preserved in a overabundant number of medieval manuscripts. Each of these situations requires an appropriate method of investigation. Nazianzus Homilies The 45 homilies of Saint Gregory of Nazianzus (ca 330-390 AD), one of the Cappadocian Church Fathers'^ and a bishop of Constantinople during the second ecumenical council, have not yet been critically edited.^ This lack of a reliable edition, based on a comprehensive history of the text, can be explained by an over- abundant and intricate tradition consisting of about 1200 Greek manuscripts. The mass of data provided by the collation of the manuscripts is far too numerous to be handled by paper-based methods (on index cardboard). Computer-aided methods of collation exist indeed, such as Collate,^ but for many reasons we preferred to create our own way of encoding.^ It must be added that it is really difficult to find signifi- cant readings that clearly divide the manuscript tradition, because those texts have been carefully copied, corrected and even collated.^ Over the last few years, several methods using computer and mathematical algorithms have come to light.^ In the case of Gregory of Nazianzus we tested three methods: multidimensional scaling, clustering and phylogeny, all applied to Homily 21 Dataset : Homily 27 Homily 27 is preserved in 126 Greek manuscripts,^^ four ancient translations into Latin,^^ Armenian^^ and Syriac (two translations: SI and S2)^'^ and an old printed edition.'^ Without taking into account orthographical and phonetical readings, there are 665 variants on 550 variant locations. The collation was recorded into a data base, where the record unit is the variant location: one word or one group of words for which there are more than one reading. The way of delimiting the variant locations is empirical. It is based on two principles: on the one hand, an attempt at understanding how the change may have occurred (although we don’t necessarily know what is the primary reading) and on the other hand, a clustering of as many as possible readings that may depend on one another. For each variant location and each manuscript, the readings that are different from the reading of the reference text are recorded. To make it easier, we chose as a reference text the only comprehensive edition, made in the eighteen century and reproduced in Migne’s Patrologia Graeca. EXPERIMENTAL PHYLOGENETIC ANALYSIS 119 From this encoding, a cross table summarizes the data and is used in any mathe- matical, statistical or biological data processing. Three Methods Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) is a method that spatially organizes and clus- ters objects on the basis of a distances matrix. In our application of the method, Hamming distances were calculated between the manuscripts of Homily 21 (The Hamming distance is a measure of the number of items in two ordered lists that do not agree.) The two dimensional representation (figure 1) of these data is a reduction of a 156 dimension space in order to focus on the main relationships between manuscripts. This rearrangement is based on a minimization function algorithm that limits the impact of the reduction of the number of dimensions on apparent distances between objects. The MDS is very sensitive to a lack of data within some objects as it will distort distances. The MDS clustering is based on similarities between objects: the method does not assume any model of transmission of the variation. WatteVs Method -Based on a model of transmission such as phytogeny, Wattel’s method is a graph showing possible relationships between objects displayed from a central arbitrary original node.*^ As this method is also affected by missing data, results are very similar to those obtained with MDS (data not shown). Phylogenetic Parsimony - The objective of phytogeny is to order a collection of objects (e.g., biological taxons,^^ manuscripts) related by a common history on the basis of variable elements (e.g., morphological and physiological traits, genetic sequences, protein structure). Most biological methods to reconstruct phytogenies are based either on a parsi- mony criterion or on distance-based approaches. In a parsimony approach, the first step is to list all the possible topologies (i.e., trees) linking the different objects and then select the most probable tree. The criterion of selection is the minimization of number of changes. As the number of possible trees increases exponentially with the number of objects, this approach requires intensive computation facilities. The methods based on distances assume the prior calculation of a distances ma- trix between all combinations of objects. Different clustering algorithms (Neighbour Joining, UPGMA, ...) make sense of this matrix. While parsimony approaches assume a time sequence, methods based on distances do not. Nevertheless, the specific applications of distance based approaches to the reconstruction of manu- scripts history are time-based: the greater the distance between two manuscripts, the larger the time span between them. 120 PHILIPPE BARET, MARC DUBUISSON, ANNE LANTIN, CAROLINE MACE Results The MDS representation (figure 1) highlights two groups of manuscripts: a large | one (A) and a smaller one (B). The composition of these groups with respect to ■ philology will be discussed later. Ten manuscripts are not properly classified as they i contain many lacuna. ! Figure 1 : Results of an MDS analysis of 126 Greek manuscripts and five translations of Homily 27 by Gregorius Nazianzus. Two clusters are clearly distinguished. Manuscripts above the interrupted line are misclassified as they contain missing data. On the parsimony based phylogram, two main groups are clearly distinct. These two groups are identical to those identified by the MDS method but they include the ten manuscripts unclassified in the MDS representation. One important discrepancy is location of TSyrl and TSyr2. By a parsimony approach, these two witnesses j appear close to manuscripts X.22 and V.29, on a branch which is nearby the origin of i branch B. i In accordance with our knowledge of the history of the text, two groups are iden- tified. In group A, we found all the N collections with part of the X collections. In group B are all the M collections with a few X collections. The Syriac versions (TSyr) are clearly specific, but somehow linked with group B. The distinction between M and N collections is based on the order of the homilies within the manu- scripts: two different orders are clearly identified. The situation of X collections is more complicated, for each manuscript follows its own order, more or less similar to one of the two main orders (M or N) or totally different. The origin of X collections T EXPERIMENTAL PHYLOGENETIC ANALYSIS 121 \ is still controversial. The methods used may help the philologist to reclassify X i ! manuscripts in one or the other of the two known families. ! Figure 2: Phylogram of the 110 manuscripts of the homily 27 of Gregorius of Nazianzus based on a phylogenetic approach. We do not want to go further on into details about validity of these results. As to proving that phylogenetics have been successfully used on Gregory of Nazianzus’ textual tradition, we may only say that the first edition based on examination of the whole manuscript tradition, thanks to phylogenetics, will be published in the next few months.^^ We find it more interesting to develop here some insights about what phylogenetics may offer to philologists. Discussion : The Use of Phylogeny in Manuscript Tradition. Computational Methods are Efficient i All the methods we used to reconstruct the history of Homily 27 by Gregory of Nazianzus were efficient in proposing relevant clusters of texts. Phylogeny based on a parsimony approach was more efficient than a MDS method. This method is interesting for people working on textual traditions, not only be- cause it is efficient as a clustering tool but also due to strong conceptual conver- 1 gences between the two disciplines. Phylogeny is a method of classification of living ! i I 122 PHILIPPE BARET, MARC DUBUISSON, ANNE LANTIN, CAROLINE MACE beings that utilizes hypotheses of character transformations to group organisms ' hierarchically and then interprets these relationships as genealogical. Transfer to a ; manuscript tradition seems promising. Nevertheless, some points of discussion have i to be raised: Multiple trees - In most cases, the phylogenetic method does not give a single i tree but a series of equivalent trees which get the same likelihood of occurrence. These multiple trees may be a good answer to Bedier’s criticism of the stemma I approach."^ He said that he refused to draw a stemma of the tradition he was working on, not because he was not able to draw one, but because he was able to draw too j many different stemmata that were equally valid. Of course, a stemma is always a ' hypothesis either in biology or philology. Decision on the best stemma will be based on an intrinsic knowledge of philology and on external information on the status of manuscript. The phylogenetic method is not an automated substitute to philologist ' work but an aid to decision. Homoplasy vs. homology - All similarities are of interest in order to prove a I common ancestor between two manuscripts, but not all of them reveal a true kinship. For biologists, bats and birds both have wings but they are not closely related. Other features set them apart (lactation, fur) and bats are closer to rats than to birds. The common emergence of wings in birds and bats is due to a phenomenon called ' evolutionary convergence or homoplasy: the same trait emerges independently in two species due to environmental factors. In a manuscript, orthographical variations may induce this convergence: two scribes with the same orthographical or even dialectal habits will implement identical variations even though they work on different lineages of a manuscript tradition (Howe et al., 2001). Contamination - A major issue in a text tradition is contamination. In our case, manuscript X_22 has difficulties in finding its place in the stemma. In some analyses ; it sticks to group B, in other cases, it will be very close to Syriac versions. Actually, X_22 is probably a hybrid manuscript: most of the text is copied on the B tradition but some parts of the text were copies out of manuscripts of the A tradition. If these contaminations affect important sections of the text, it may cause misclassification of i texts. ! Progress - A major hiatus between biology and philology is the impact of time. For the philologist, time is a degradation factor which drives the accumulations of | errors and mistakes in a text up to the loss of the original information. From a biological point of view, time is the main engine of change, a driving force to ; progress. This apparent antagonistic role of time is to be considered with caution. Progress in biology is a dangerous concept: evolution leads to an increase of complexity but it is difficult to decide whether a bacteria is more adapted to its environment than a human being. From the philological point of view, the successive j transformations of the text - transformations of different types: translation, com- j ! J EXPERIMENTAL PHYLOGENETIC ANALYSIS 123 I ments, variants - contribute to the survival of the initial message with a concomitant I loss of the original text. I Conclusion I Computational tools, and more specifically phylogeny methods are very helpful I in the development of philology. They are particularly relevant when the analysis is t based on a large corpus of data. This tool is fascinating but has to be critically implemented. It provides the phi- j lologist with one or several propositions of classification of manuscripts. The final || interpretation has to integrate this mathematical approach in a wider framework. In f most cases, the boundary of interpretation is the lack of information. The biggest I computer cannot palliate a burned library but it may help to make sense of the ti ' available information. f i I j Endnotes ! ' Prof. Philippe V. Baret and Anne-Catherine Lantin are at the Faculty of Biological, Agricultural and Environmental engineering, Universite Catholique de Louvain, Dr. Caroline Mace is a researcher at the Institute of Philosophy, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Marc Dubuisson is a doctoral student at the I Department of Classics, Universite Catholique de Louvain. Writing this paper has been a longstanding i project, starting at Cambridge University, where the authors were invited by Dr. Natalie Tchernetska to give ’ a lecture at the Department of Classics in May 2002, and ending at De Monfort University, where they attended a workshop organized by Prof. P. Robinson in April 2003. ^ For example, the article of P. Robinson and of a team of biologists from Cambridge, published in Nature : Barbrook, A.C. et al. (1998) The phylogeny of the Canterbury Tales, Nature 394, 839. See now Howe, C. J. et al. (2001) Manuscript evolution. Trends in Genetics 17, 147-152. It was not something new though: Platnick, N.I. and Cameron, H.D. (1977) Cladistic methods in textual, linguistic and phylogenetic analysis. Systematic Zoology, 26, 380-385. A good introduction is to be found in this unfortunately unpublished thesis: Moura, M. (2002) Methodes phylogenetiques: de la systematique en biologie et de ses applications en philologie (stemmatologie) et en linguistique historique, Universite de Lausanne, Faculte des Lettres www.unil.ch/imm/docs/Trav_Etudiants/MouraMemoire.pdf. ^ Reynolds, L.D. and Wilson, N.G. (1974), Scribes and Scholars: A Guide to the Transmission of Greek and Latin Literature, Oxford, rev. ed. The title of “Church Father” is given to the most important Greek and Latin writers whose writings are considered founding texts of the tradition of the Church and who belong to the “Patristic age” (from the second to the sixth century; this period is also called “late Antiquity”). The literary success of some of them, like Augustine, the Cappadocians (Gregory of Nazianzus, Basil of Caesarea and Gregory of Nyssa) or John Chrysostomus, was so important during the middle ages that they have been copied and quoted an uncount- able number of times: Amand de Mendieta, E. (1987) Un probleme d’ecdotique. Comment manier la tradition manuscrite surabondante d’un ouvrage patristique, in Texte und Textkritik. Line Aufsatzsammlung, hrsg. von Dummer, J. (Texte und Untersuchungen 133), Berlin, 29-42. ^ See a survey of the international project edition of Gregory’s Homilies carried on at the University of Louvain: http://nazianzos.fltr.ucl.ac.be/. ^ Cf. Robinson, P (1994) Collate : Interactive Collation of Large Textual Traditions, version 2, Oxford University Centre for Humanities Computing. ’ Collate may be used for any manuscript tradition. The aim is to have at the end a complete transcription of all available manuscripts, with all their orthographical and scribal characteristics. This tool was created primarily for traditions of medieval texts, where each manuscript has a value as such, as an unique witness 124 PHILIPPE BARET, MARC DUBUISSON, ANNE LANTIN, CAROLINE MACE of a precise moment within the history of text. In a case like Gregory’s homilies, we are using the history of the text mainly as a way to the archetype, the furthest possibly reconstituted common ancestor of the tradition. Thus, we did not want to take into account a huge number of insignificant variants. Phonetics is a big issue in Medieval Greek, for many vowels started early to be prononced “i” - this phenomenon is called iotacism - and the difference between long and breve vowels tended to disappear. That would be confusing. * There is a large number of marginal or other corrections in most manuscripts. Moreover, Gregory’s homilies were loudly read in church or learnt by heart at school. This “vivid” knowledge of the text may have played a role within the text transmission, although copying remains a very conservative process. “Contamination” is by the way an unsatisfactory concept that describes only the result of several very different causes and that is often wrongly used. To take it simply, one might detect a contamination when a manuscript is sharing secondary readings (“mistakes”) clearly characterizing two or more families or when a group of manuscripts clearly related have also secondary readings of another family. ’ Duplacy, J. (1975) Classification des etats d’un texte, mathematiques et informatique: reperes historiques et recherches methodologiques. Revue d’Histoire des Textes, 5, 249-309 ; Glenisson, J. (ed.) (1979) La pra- tique des ordinateurs dans la critique des textes. Actes du Colloque international tenu a Paris du 29 au 31 mars 1978 (Colloques internationaux du C.N.R.S. 579), Paris ; Van Reenen, P. and Van Mulken, M. (eds.) ( 1 996) Studies in Stemmatology, Amsterdam - Philadelphia. This was the subject of C. Mace’s doctoral dissertation, defended on May 2002 at the Catholic University of Louvain: La tradition des discours de Gregoire de Nazianze. Edition critique du discours 27 . " A complete list of manuscripts is available co line: http://pot-pourri.fltr.ucl.ac.be/manuscrits/ nazianze/default.cfm. The Latin translation was made at the end of the fourth century by a famous Italian monk, Rufinus of Aquilea: Engelbrecht, A. (ed.) (1910) Tyrannii Rufini Orationum Gregorii Nazianzeni novem interpretatio (Corpus Scriptorum Ecclesiasticorum Latinorum 46), Wien - Leipzig. The Armenian translation is anonymous, made probably around 500: cf. Lafontaine, G. and Coulie, B. (1983) La version armenienne des Discours de Gregoire de Nazianze. Tradition manuscrite et histoire du texte (Corpus Scriptorum Christianorum Orientalium 446), Louvain. The first Syriac translation (SI) was made in the second third of the fifth century; Paul of Edessa made a second translation in Cyprus in 624-625 (S2): cf. Detienne, C. (2000) Gregoire de Nazianze dans la tradition syriaque, in Studia Nazianzenica I, ed. by Coulie, B. (Corpus Christianorum. Series Graeca 41), Turnhout - Leuven, 175-183. This edotio princeps, made by Marcus Mususrus on the basis of several unknown and possibly lost manuscripts, was published in 1516 in Venice: cf. Bertolini, M. (1988) L’edizione aldina del 1516 e il Testo delle Orazioni di Gregorio Nazianzeno, Studi Classici e Orientali 38, 383-390. For example, we tend to put on the same variant location an inversion and an omission (of on of the two words or groups of words concerned by the inversion), because it may happen that an inversion is the result of a corrected omission (the completed words are put on the wrong place), eventhough omissions and inversions may happen purily coincidentally on the same place. Indeed, larger is the manuscript tradition, more it gives rise to hazard. ’’ Borg, 1. and P. Groenen, P. (1997) Modern Multidimensional Scaling. Theory and Applications (Springer Series in Statistics), New York-Berlin-Heidelberg. Mace, C., Schmidt, T. and Weiler, J.-F. (2001) Le classement des manuscrits par la statistique et la phylogenetique: les cas de Gregoire de Nazianze et de Basile le Minime, Revue d' Histoire des Textes, 31, 243-276. Wattel, E. (1996) Clustering stemmatological trees, in Studies in Stemmatology, edited by Van Reenen, P. and Van Mulken, M., Amsterdam - Philadelphia, 123-134. A division in a phylogenetic hierarchy is known as a taxon. For example, a genus is a taxon grouping together different species. The editio maior critica of Homily 27 by C. Mace will appear soon. Reeve, M.D. (1986) Stemmatic Method: “Qualcosa che non funziona?”, in The Role of the Book in Medieval Culture, ed. by Ganz, P. (Bibliologia 3), Turnhout, 57-69. Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences, Volume 89, Numbers 3 & 4, 125-140, FallAVinter 2003 Science Policy: Constructing a Planetary Defense Regime to Reduce International Terrestrial Insecurity Martin Schwab Graduate School of Public and International Affairs University of Pittsburgh Readers of the Journal are invited to respond to this science policy proposal. Send your comments to Editors@washacadsci.org to be considered for publication in the Journal. Abstract Objects in space near Earth, including asteroids, comets, and man-made space debris, are known as Near Earth Objects (NEOs). If they are in Earth Crossing Orbits (ECOs) around the sun, slight changes in their orbits can result either in potentially catastrophic collisions with Earth, or in avoiding such collisions. This paper argues that existing ter- restrial political insecurity can be lessened by constructing a planetary defense regime (PDR) to vigorously detect, probe and decide how to best redirect NEOs. Through en- gaged diplomacy by the United States, the very acts of proposing, planning and begin- ning the construction of a PDR with other countries will likely create necessary and sufficient conditions for reducing the probability that a PDR will be weaponized, either by small or great powers. Introduction In the years following the massive impacts of fragments from Comet Shoemaker- Levy 9 into Jupiter in 1994 (see illustration 1 below), scientists around the world have been diligently pursuing the optical detection of asteroids and comets that are on Earth Crossing Orbits (ECOs). Objects that might posses ECOs (including man made space debris) are also known as Near Earth Objects (NEOs). Slight changes in the orbits of these objects around the sun can result in potentially catastrophic collisions with Earth or conversely in the avoidance of such naturally occurring collisions. “...The next impact of a mile size object will probably happen without any pre- vious discovery of it at all. The first thing you will know is when you feel the ground shake and see the plume of fire coming up over the horizon.” So said David Morri- son, Director of Space, NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, California. 126 MARTIN SCHWAB Figure 1 best illustrates the overall environment in which a PDR would be con- structed to protect Earth from unnecessary harm. Illustration 1. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, NASA. Top 20 Comet Shoemaker Images. 12. MISSO Image j of Fragment K Impact Plume (19 July 1994). 17. Hubble Image of Fragment A Plume (16 July 1994). | Last updated March 2000. http;//www.jpl.nasa.gov/sl9/top20.html i Figure 1 . Positions of Known Earth Crossing Asteroids it] 1., L.« Left: Positions of known ECAs [Earth crossing asteroids] on September 23, 1991 in an ecliptic North Pole projection of the inner solar system. The direction of the vernal equinox is to the right. Orbits and locations of Earth, Mars, and Jupiter are also shown. Right: Ecliptic plane projections of ECAs, on the same scale as (a). The ecliptic is shown as the horizontal line (Space Studies Institute, Princeton, New Jersey). A more up to date catalogue of NEOs as well as how both the United States Air Eorce, NASA an international partners currently “scan the skies” can be found at the NASA Ames Research Center website at www.impact.arc.nasa.gov. CONSTRUCTING A PLANETARY DEFENSE REGIME 127 A United States Air Force (USAF) sponsored research paper has provided some useful quantification of the NEO threat in table form. This table includes the NEO threat in the list of statistical median “day to day” pedestrian threats in the United States. Table 1 might even be more useful if it were re-calculated to represent globally averaged pedestrian threats. Table 1 : Relative Probability of Death by Asteroid Impact (From Chapman and Morrison) Chances of Dying from Selected Causes in the USA Motor Vehicle Accident 1 in 100 Murder 1 in 300 Fire 1 in 800 Firearms Accident 1 in 2.500 Electrocution 1 in 5,000 Passenger Aircraft Accident 1 in 20,000 ASTEROID IMPACT 1 in 25,000 Flood 1 in 30,000 Tornado 1 in 60,000 Venomous Bite or Sting 1 in 100,000 Fireworks Accident 1 in 1 million Food poisoning 1 in 3 million Drinking Water with EPA limit of TCE 1 in 10 million Air University Into the Future. Preparing for Planetary Defense; Detection and Interception of Asteroids on Collision Course with Earth. White Paper on Planetary Defense, Spacecast 2020. 25 May 1994. www.fas.org/spp/military/docops/usaf/2020/app-r.htm Obviously, catastrophic NEO strikes occur less frequently than floods and torna- does, but Table 1 reflects an enormous statistical weighting factor; an NEO strike can cause apocalyptic disruption, up to the point of human extinction. Ironically, the human species now has the capability to avert NEO strikes while it is only possible to control or mitigate the damage caused by tornadoes and floods. Clark Chapman of the Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colorado has said of the NEO threat that the “potential consequences are horrific, exceeding any other natural hazard and roughly that of an all-out nuclear war.”' He went on to say that: Unlike the dinosaurs, the big picture is that we do have the capability and intelligence to protect ourselves from this threat. The questions are... will we take a gamble and submit to fate? Or do we undertake a measured, rationale response? The first element is to educate ourselves and our leaders about this issue, and rationally decide what fraction of our budget should be devoted to protecting our planet.^ 128 MARTIN SCHWAB Chapman emphasized that once all near-Earth asteroids have been located, com- ets remain a “lingering hazard.” Because comets travel faster than asteroids, they can enter the inner solar system on short notice. However, comets are brighter than asteroids and can be detected at farther distances from Earth. Comet Hale-Bopp slipped by Earth in 1997 and was likely 100 times more massive than the object that wiped out the dinosaurs. “It was a big one, and it was only discovered something like a year before it came in... Astronomers are just learning how to communicate with each other. But the relevant political agencies are not prepared to listen and act,” Chapman said.'^ The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) currently fund sev- eral efforts to search for NEOs. Foremost among them is the Lincoln Near Earth Asteroid Research program (LINEAR) which in recent years has been funded in the range of $4 million a year. LINEAR is operated by MIT’s Lincoln Laboratories, in conjunction with the United States Air Force (USAF) to scan the skies for NEOs. Since 1998, LINEAR has discovered about 1,000 NEOs of various sizes and compo- sitions that likely range from pure iron to loosely compacted gravel. It is critical that the international community confirm that most of these NEOs are not current threats to Earth, and also to catalogue them and monitor their orbits. Over 600 NEOs one kilometer in diameter or larger have been found to date. Astronomers estimate that there are some 1,000 NEOs of comparable size. At current discovery rates, NASA is projected to achieve its goal of discovering 90 percent of the statistically projected NEOs of this size by 2008."^ Brigadier General Simon “Pete” Worden, who once served as Deputy Director of Operations, United States Space Command [now serving as Director of the Office of Transformation, Space and Missile Systems Center/Los Angeles Air Force Base] is the chief proponent of adopting military command and control of technologies for the mitigation of NEOs.^ Whenever General Worden speaks on NEOs, he always emphasizes that he is expressing his personal views and not those of the USAF or the DoD. “For fear... for greed... for curiosity. Asteroids are about the only thing in space that combines all three of those,” Worden has concluded.^ Worden is referring to minerals in abundance on asteroids, such as platinum when he speaks of greed. Greed may be a useful component of a PDR, as will be discussed shortly. Of growing concern are the estimated one million NEOs that are 50 meters across or larger. NASA does not currently have the facilities to search for these smaller but still significant threats. An example of such an object was the discovery of 2002 MN by LINEAR on 17 June 2002 (days after Worden made the above statements on fear, greed and curiosity), estimated to be between 50 and 120 meters across. 2002 MN passed within 120,000 kilometers of the Earth (inner solar system) on 14 June, three days before its discovery. Had it struck Earth in the right place, it could have destroyed a large city.^ CONSTRUCTING A PLANETARY DEFENSE REGIME 129 While NASA is currently focused on finding one kilometer or larger NEOs, be- cause they have the potential for global devastation, NASA is also initiating a feasibility study for conducting searches for these smaller objects.^ General Worden argues that more attention should be devoted to these “Tunguska-class” objects because they can strike up to several times per century with the destructiveness of a nuclear weapon.^ The word “Tunguska” refers to an event in 1908 in which a 50 meter object ex- ploded in the air above the Tunguska River in Siberia, leveling over 1,000 square kilometers of rural forest. This blast released an amount of energy 1000 times greater than the nuclear weapons dropped on Japan in 1945. Had the object entered Earth’s atmosphere only three hours later. Earth’s rotation would have created a 10 to 15 megaton air burst over Moscow. Scientists still dispute whether this object was an asteroid, comet or other mix of ice and rocky material. This paper is being written for an audience in a “hyper power.”** As such, the arguments in this paper rest on the belief that it is the responsibility of the United States to dispel the anxiety currently exhibited towards her by other powers around the globe, large and small. Ironically, countermeasures designed for the protection of people on Earth might also exacerbate an already insecure micr-national security environment, particularly in the military space arena. One only needs to look at the self-destructive history of the 20^*" century (especially World War I), as Carl Sagan did and the events of September 11, 2001 to easily contemplate suicidal “madmen” scenarios with respect to a PDR. Sagan reasons: ...if you can reliably deflect a threatening worldlet so it does not collide with the Earth, you can also reliably deflect a harmless worldlet so it does collide with the Earth... If we develop and deploy this technology, it may do us in. If we don’t, some asteroid or comet may do us in. The resolution of the di- lemma hinges, I think, on the fact that the likely timescales of the two dan- gers are very different - short for the former, long for the latter... The reliability of world political organizations and the confidence they inspire will have to make significant strides before they can be trusted to deal with the problem of this seriousness... we can afford to wait...’^ Philosophical Blueprint for Planetary Defense What Sagan and other realists may not appreciate is that perhaps only when world political organizations face problems that concern the continued existence of the human species, can revolutionary advancements be made in these institutions. David Lake suggests that choices exist, apart from the inter-locking alliance structure of traditional balance of power politics. He argues that in an anarchic world, security, like any good must be manufactured by polities, which he defines as any 130 MARTIN SCHWAB 1 ^ actor that has or could have a history of self-rule. Lake believes that international i cooperation cannot proceed unless some effective governance structure can be i constructed at an acceptable cost to whatever collection of polities is mustered. In a i world structure, presently based on self-interest and opportunism, influencing the i behavior of others is critical and is more achievable if done through appeals to basic human needs, especially the risk of death. ; In addition to ensuring the preservation of the human species, it can be argued that a cooperative PDR will also build prestige, confidence and relations among j powers, great and small alike. These secondary effects, while seemingly separate ! serve as the keystones to the architectural analogy that is present throughout this paper: a cathedral of refuge against fire and brimstone. The smaller the units of polities (grains of powder versus pebbles), the greater the density and impermeability the eventual “mortar” will have when it cures - in terms of vigilance in the overall ‘ dome or arch of planetary defense that is to be constructed. j This conceptualization therefore makes it easy to envision a regional or conti- nental approach to planetary defense, rather than a great power or state-based approach through the United Nations. In regard to detection, there is much that even sub-state polities can contribute to a PDR. Consistent with this approach to a PDR, the Planetary Society’s Shoemaker NEO Grant Program currently awards $5,000 to $8,000 to qualified amateur astronomers each year to increase the rate of discovery and follow-up studies (particularly in the ; southern hemisphere) of NEOs in countries as diverse as Brazil, Czech Republic, | Slovenia, United States and Uruguay. Note that these awards are made to individu- als in countries and not to countries. There are arguments to be made on both sides for whether space-based tracking i or Earth-based tracking is more cost effective. However, at the present time what the international community needs are more tracking stations to detect new objects on ECOs as well as monitor the orbits of known NEOs, whether they are Earth-based or space-based. A sense of vigilant urgency rather than optimum systems development is what is needed if national governments are serious about ensuring the preservation of human life on Earth, so that humankind may have a chance to explore beyond low Earth orbit. For the same reason, this same sense of urgency might also be applied to codify- ing preventive measures against the potential of a cascading effect occurring between existing space debris and the International Space Station. Laying the Foundation for Planetary Defense The above conditions (met through commitment based on political perception) are crucial and likely sufficient for an effective PDR to be constructed. For the CONSTRUCTING A PLANETARY DEFENSE REGIME 131 international community to meet and sustain these key conditions, creative political- diplomatic efforts will be required. This can be achieved publicly or privately. It is generally probable that public political statements will not bring about these condi- tions. They are too complex and open to misinterpretation or exploitation by domes- tic political opponents. It is preferable that initiation of this regime be initiated through private diplomacy. However, at some point, there must be public disclosure of this regime, to avoid domestic misunderstandings, paranoia and resistance. An argument can be made that public disclosure of a PDR may cause panic. This assertion can be argued the other way around. If done through effective global political leadership, global citizen knowledge of and involvement in a PDR might initially bring about solidarity of purpose among citizens worldwide that may create the effect of an informal global citizenry. This concept of a global citizenry, emerg- ing naturally out of the norm and acceptance of entwined interests to maintain a PDR for, of and by people might be transferred more readily into other areas of peace- making and the maintenance of human civilization than existing “people to people” programs among nation states. The prospect of citizens worldwide, feeling empow- ered and connected; either vicariously through regional space programs or through smaller contributions to a PDR might be a positive development in the current world situation. International Good Will by Design For such a manifestation to occur, the United States cannot be perceived as “run- ning the show,” as if a PDR is a Hollywood script. America would do better to “request” and “invite” technological assistance from the rest of the world. It would also be in the short term strategic interest of the United States to at present jointly deploy a PDR for the sole purpose of rebuilding the depleted prestige of large nations in Europe and Asia in a positive way; including but not limited to France, China and North Korea, each of which has ballistic missile capability. The problem of depleted prestige has been the result of obvious U.S. dominance; economically, socially, politically and militarily. From the perspective of the de- pleted, it does not matter whether this dominance has been benign or not. Countering Sagan’s ‘‘Mad Man” Assumption Upon revelation of an international agenda for planetary defense, realists in all nations most likely will argue against it based on the “mad man” assumption articu- lated by Sagan. Here are a few counterarguments in preparation for that eventuality: 1) Earnest international scientific exchange of information on NEOs in conjunction with multilateral planning of operations and institutional resources devoted to 132 MARTIN SCHWAB maintaining planetary defense will divert resources devoted to the preparation for armed conflict by nation states. 2) While this will take away from resources to pre- empt terrorist acts against states, the result will still be a net decrease in mitx-national ' insecurity. 3) Subsequent and increased intelligence sharing among nation states, a; likely result of this second point will help bring the choke hold on terrorism (origi- nating from sub-states, rogue states and failed states) to the point of fatal asphyxia- tion. Harnessing the Entrepreneurial Spirit for Planetary Defense Economic liberals, known as entrepreneurs in the space development community would accept Lake’s thesis that planetary security is essential but they might argue against planetary defense being built solely on political grounds. Part of their security j calculus focuses on Lake’s idea that security can also be defined as the absence off external coercion in the allocation of wealth. They resist the idea that planetary | defense can only be built by governments and tax dollars. | Their argument, with considerable merit, is that these tax dollars, along withl loosened restrictions on private sector mining of precious metals on asteroids would |j be more efficient in building the knowledge and skill set necessary for diverting! asteroids. | The fallacy of economic liberals only emerges when they suggest that only a fo-| cus on economic competition in space will yield better results than a dedicated andP international endeavor between governments to ensure the preservation of the human || species. Still, it might be advisable for governments to discuss with economic liberals ! and among themselves how to create profit friendly regulatory and tax environments * for entrepreneurs and how they may foster cooperation among eventual multinational I asteroid mining firms. In the future, the inevitable actions of economic liberals that do not serve the| public good, such as exploitation of asteroid mining labor or collusion of prices over | the resources they mine, must be strongly regulated by governments. Paul Doremusj and Simon Reich argue that states still charter multinational corporations and shape the operating environment, in which they flourish, by retaining authority to steer their activities. Nothing less should be expected in the space security arena. Predictable Serendipity as a Component of Planetary Defense Some humanitarian critics of a PDR, though not opposed to an international se- curity regime might argue that the NEO threat is not the material with which to build 1 the cathedral. Instead of building the arch of planetary defense, they feel, perhaps legitimately that earthbound threats such as disease or rapid climate change are more CONSTRUCTING A PLANETARY DEFENSE REGIME 133 likely threats to the demise of the human species. These distracters might be per- suaded that all fields of human vigilance through inquiry should be investigated simultaneously because the process of true discovery is interdisciplinary and seren- dipitous in nature. Still, under current economic constraints some negotiating framework on re- source allocation for research and development, based on the best scientific assess- ment of threats to humanity will need to occur. Perhaps the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) or a league of national science boards will be the best forums in which to resolve these inevitable and legitimate discussions. Final Structure: Beating Shields, Swords and Plowshares into a PDR Despite its uniqueness, any proposal for a PDR will exist in the context of prece- dents set in near term history. Following Operation Desert Storm in 1991, President George Bush addressed Congress and could have easily delivered a message couched in the rhetoric of realism. He did not. In a neo-Wilsonian, continentalist- constructivist manner. Bush declared: ...Tonight, we meet in a world blessed by the promise of peace... aggression is defeated. The war is over. This is a victory for every country in the coali- tion, for the United Nations. A victory for unprecedented international coop- eration and diplomacy... America and Europe, from Asia and South America, from Africa and the Arab world, all united against aggression. Our uncommon coalition must now work in common purpose: to forge a future that should never again be held hostage to the darker side of human na- ture...Now, we can see a new world coming into view. A world in which there is the very real prospect of a new world order. In the words of Winston Churchill, a world order in which ‘the principles of justice and fair play pro- tect the weak against the strong’...^ A world where the United Nations, freed from cold war stalemate, is poised to fulfill the historic vision of its founders’ [italics are the author’s].’^ Planetary defense captures the imagination even more. It promises to make full use of available global human capital and technology, as a means to achieve human dignity, security and solidarity. Global solidarity has always been an objective of the American experiment in republican democracy. E Pluribus Unum, From Many One: “The cause of America is, in a great measure, the cause of all mankind.” Thomas Paine, Common Sense, 14 February 1776.'*^ As commerce, education, and the rapid transition of thought and matter, by telegraph and steam have changed everything, I rather believe that the great 134 MARTIN SCHWAB Maker is preparing the world to become one nation, speaking one language, a consummation which will render armies and navies no longer necessary. President Ulysses S. Grant, 1873.*^ NORAD as a Template for a Planetary Defense Regime The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) is an appealing template for a PDR. NORAD is an international organization, comprised of the United States and Canada. It is dedicated to preserving human life (in North Amer- ica) by determining the velocity and trajectory of threatening objects that at one point would be outside of Earth’s atmosphere (potentially launched by humans from other regions of the globe). General Worden has revealed that the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has studied the issues of setting up an asteroid warning system and many others such as the National Space Society advocate that this should be a DoD responsibility. This system may or may not ultimately find a home within the NORAD and U.S Space Command missions in the Cheyenne Mountain Complex outside Colorado Springs, Colorado. An important step, Worden said, is to catalogue all objects that are potentially threatening to Earth, including small objects that could destroy a city. To accomplish this type of charting, military strategists now champion an existing space- based network of sensors that track Earth-circling satellites. These same “space sentinels” could also detect small asteroids.^^ Worden advocates that additional funds should be devoted to building micro- satellites. Some of these tiny craft might be placed in a kind of sleep mode in parked orbits, ready to rendezvous with an intruding asteroid. These micro-satellites could offer close looks at NEOs in an effort to gather intelligence from which to develop the best countermeasures. Micro-satellites can also be configured to impact an object, adding extra energy to the body and putting it on a non-Earth-bound trajectory. While the low mass of micro-satellites would yield a negligible effect to an NEO on approach to Earth, if impacted far enough away from Earth would in most cases sufficiently alter the course of the NEO to avoid collision. “Before we start detonat- ing nuclear weapons in space to move something, we ought to think long and hard how we really want to do this,” Worden said.^^ A research paper by USAF officers, submitted to the USAF “Air Force 2025” study concluded that the greatest challenge facing planetary defense will be coordi- nation between nations, international organizations, DoD, NASA, academia and others in the scientific community. The young USAF officers who have assessed this threat realize that consolidation of national efforts will need to occur.^^ CONSTRUCTING A PLANETARY DEFENSE REGIME 135 Consolidating Existing Entities into a Planetary Defense Regime The key challenge for creating a PDR will be to determine the best architectures and deployment mechanisms (economic, social, political and military) for such a transformation of existing terrestrial security institutions. While transformation of NORAD for planetary defense is one option, a PDR might be constructed as either a part of the United Nations system, as a link between regional organizations such as NATO, the European Union (EU), Arab League, Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), Organization of American States (OAS) or as a part of a joint effort by NORAD and the Asian-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization (APSCO), soon to be established in Beijing. As an entity, APSCO is interesting for a number of reasons. Two of them are that of the 14 member nations, with UN endorsement; India, Australia and Japan have not yet been invited to join while Russia, Iran, Peru and Chile have been invited to join by China, the lead country. Still, Luan Enjie, minister of China’s National Space Administration has said that the China is “...willing to join hands with people of all nations to make due contribution to the peaceful exploration and uses of space resources for the progress and common development of humankind.” While not mentioning planetary defense explicitly it is significant that as part of its mission, APSCO is planning to better coordinate environmental protection, disaster reduction and resource exploration.^^ Establishing a PDR will not be unlike the effort taken to create the U.S. Depart- ment of Homeland Security. There are currently about 20 under-funded and largely unincorporated agencies, missions, non-governmental organizations, university based programs and private initiatives around the globe that dedicate themselves to this common human endeavor.^^ A key question that must be answered in creating a PDR is how to motivate these separate entities to take ownership of the new PDR entity given the natural inertia that exists as part of institutional momentum. One idea might be to locate joint military command and control elements of the PDR under the auspices of the International Space University (ISU) in Strasbourg, France. This institutional affiliation might draw precedent from the current NASA Deep Impact Mission to Comet Tempel 1, on schedule for impact on 4 July 2005 and housed within the University of Maryland. Establishing this locale as headquarters for a PDR might also serve to bridge the transatlantic divide as well as being equidistant between Beijing and Washington. It should be noted that most of Europe’s best minds on astronomy are located within their university system. The Near Earth Object Dynamics System, both at the University of Pisa, Italy and the University of Valladolid, Spain is one such example. The other symbolism that locating the PDR at ISU would signify is the notion that the best planetary defense is ultimately the free exchange of ideas. 136 MARTIN SCHWAB Countermeasures that Avoid International Terrestrial Insecurity In certain instances, one option to redirect a fast approaching asteroid on colli- sion course with Earth is to send humans out to it to perform a variety of countermea- sures. These might include a variety of types of detonations and kinetic energy maneuvers.^'^ In the interests of training for such missions, Daniel Durda of the Southwest Re- search Institute, Boulder, Colorado points out that there are some 10,000 near-Earth asteroids larger than 33 feet (10 meters) across that are easier to reach from an orbital || energy standpoint than the surface of the Moon. Once at one of these non-threatening 10 meter class asteroids, a crew could examine its geology and test equipment for several weeks. The entire mission could take less than two months. This approach is “well within our experience base when you consider the stay times that we will become accustomed to for International Space Station (ISS) expeditions... It turns out that during the entire mission, the crew will never venture farther from Earth than about 4.5 lunar distances.” Durda believes that development of human asteroid rendezvous capability will provide invaluable data as well as develop the skill set that will be needed to reliably divert an asteroid when a larger one does threaten all or part of Earth.^'^ Whether humans or space probes are sent to NEOs to perform countermeasures. Earth bound defense policymakers must become familiar with the orbital aspects of these space encounter scenarios. Chief among these are out-of plane dynamics. The obvious terrestrial-oriented response to an approaching NEO is to “deflect” it sideways so that it will miss Earth. This countermeasure would only cause the object to wobble in its orbit before it would still arrive at future points close to the original predictions. Instead, force should be directed along the flight path of an NEO, to slow it down from in front of its direction or to speed it up from behind. This last countermeasure is akin to the downfield blocking penalty of clipping (pushing) from behind in American football, or slide tackling (tripping) in soccer. Both of these countermeasures alter the energy of the orbit, causing the asteroid to miss Earth. James Oberg, after presenting this idea at the United States Space Command then dismissed it by saying: “But try and explain this to someone unfa- miliar with orbital operations. Tell them that in order to make it miss Earth, you want to SPEED UP the approaching asteroid, and see the reaction.”^^ This is not a legitimate reason to dismiss this idea. In addition to the “clipping” analogy, Oberg’ s countermeasure could be explained as equivalent to a quarterback correctly judging where a receiver will be when he throws a football (asteroid); then deliberately throwing too slow or too fast to that point, resulting in an “incomple- tion.” This is an easy concept to communicate to policymakers worldwide, but only if the correct rhetorical devices are used. Around the world, “centering the futbol” could be substituted for “passing the football.” Part of the problem in talking about CONSTRUCTING A PLANETARY DEFENSE REGIME 137 planetary defense at this point in time is cultural disconnect; not so much between nations, but between scientists and policymakers. Summary of Existing U.S. Air Force Thought on Planetary Defense To avoid what General Worden calls the “political consternation” surrounding nuclear weapons as part of a PDR, Worden stresses the deployment of micro- satellites for detection and potential deflection of NEOs. For efficiency, Worden believes it makes sense to piggyback detection and cataloging efforts onto the DoD budget. At the same time, he sees an opportunity to engage in low cost micro-satellite rendezvous missions, as part of an international effort to characterize the composition and structure of all classes of NEOs, including comets.^^ Worden’s approach appears sound programmatically as well as diplomatically. In any international effort, it is always wise for a lead power to shoulder the burden of the groundwork while engaging in the more exciting work multilaterally. This is especially true if there are novel but effective alternatives for proceeding with the exciting missions, as there appears to be with micro-satellite technology. Renewed international enthusiasm for the United States as well as increased awareness of science among the American public might result from a focused international endeavor against the NEO threat.^^ Expanding the architectural analogy further, Worden seems to be the foreman, with blueprint in hand, who has already started building the lateral supports of the security dome and has invited others to join. One of the first partners in building the dome of planetary defense is likely to be the European Space Agency (ESA), which is as familiar as NASA and the USAF with the body of published literature that exists concerning NEO mitigation counter- measures. ESA feels that for each possible scenario of an NEO impact, the best defense option should be determined in advance since the warning time before impact could be very short. Instead of predicting international resistance to a plane- tary security dome, ESA is likely considering the necessity for international coopera- tion. In a report prepared for the ESA by Dr. Christian Gritzner of the Institut fur Luft-und Raumfahrttechnik, Technische Universitat Dresden, Gritzner cites an excerpt from the report of the Third United Nations Conference on the Exploration and Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (Declaration of Vienna, 1999), approved by the United Nations General Assembly. It reads: [...] actions should be taken [...] to improve the international coordination of activities related to near-Earth Objects, harmonizing the worldwide efforts directed at identification, follow-up observations and orbit prediction, while at the same time giving consideration to developing a common strategy that would include future activities related to near-Earth Objects 138 MARTIN SCHWAB The Air Force 2025 paper proposed an interesting and useful analogy for battle space management and space situational awareness that involves command, control, computers, communications and intelligence, otherwise known as “C4L” The authors used the air defense network employed by the British during the Battle of Britain in 1940 as an example: Many observers deployed along the coast of the English Channel scanned the skies for formations of German planes and, once detecting them identified their size and composition... relayed their information to the centralized command centers where the information would be integrated into the big picture with radar and other observations.^* To this end, the Air Force 2025 paper proposed three tiers of planetary defense sentinels or “gargoyles” in the cathedral analogy. Each tier or grouping of gargoyles would be developed sequentially from near to far. Detection systems would be deployed first and closer in to Earth, developed in parallel with C4I systems, fol- lowed by mitigation systems that would be deployed later and farther away from Earth. In regard to mitigation countermeasures, their proposal involved near tier use of nuclear warheads, mid tier use of space-based kinetic energy systems and far tier use of space-based laser systems as shown in the illustration.^^ .V# \ \ J \ \ \ ,.A • r \ \ 1 V j ' / / y h ; \ / / j. \ y ^ A / Mid > ''Far (Urias 1996). Illustration 2: Three tiers of planetary defense. General Worden might critique the Air Force 2025 paper by arguing that while the three tier defense (dome) adds sophistication to planetary defense planning, the “near tier” nuclear-warhead component of their proposal adds unnecessary interna- tional “political consternation;” when it is not clear that strike weapons are the best countermeasures against NEOs anyway. One exception to this might occur in a truly identifiable emergency in which a United Nations resolution authorizing the use of nuclear force against an inanimate object in outer space might be quickly negotiated. CONSTRUCTING A PLANETARY DEFENSE REGIME 139 Conclusion and Recommendations A PDR has a probable chance of reducing international insecurity if the main countermeasure agreed upon is alteration of the speed of existing flight paths of NEOs using non explosive means far beyond low Earth orbit before objects on ECOs become NEOs. A PDR should rapidly deploy re-directable micro-satellite sentinels beyond low Earth orbit to rendezvous with NEOs as far away from Earth as is feasible. The effectiveness of such a deployment will depend on the quantity, optical detection capability, data analysis and information dissemination capabilities of the NEO detection micro-satellites sentinels. The likelihood that a PDR will be misused decrease as a PDR is constructed through engaged U.S. diplomacy which would increase transparency due to the fact that an increased number of micro-satellite sentinels would be deployed jointly by different key nation states. By not adding to terrestrial insecurity by any one country unilaterally constructing a planetary defense system, the PDR would complement the existing international convention on the authentication of NEO risk, the Torino scale that has been developed and in effect since 1999.^'^ This approach would reflect the original concept of transparency behind President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s Open Skies initiative to the former Soviet Union (which they refused), concerning the joint deployment of military reconnaissance flight for arms control verification. The next challenge will be to revive and extend the Eisenhower precedent in a proactive manner against the NEO threat. This action would honor the sentiment and vision of the late Representative George Brown of California: If some day in the future we discover well in advance that an asteroid that is big enough to cause a mass extinction is going to hit the Earth, and then we alter the course of that asteroid so that it does not hit us, it will be one of the most important accomplishments in all of human history.^"^ Notes ‘ Leonard David, “First Strike or Asteroid Impact? The Urgent Need to Know the Difference,” space.com 6 June 2002. www. space. com/scienceastronomy/astronomy/nss_asteroid_020606.html ' Ibid. ' Ibid. Jeff Foust, “Panel: NEO Search Efforts Need More Support,” Spaceflight Now Online 12 July 2002. http://spaceflightnow.eom/news/n0207/12neo/ ^ Brigadier General Simon “Pete” Worden (USAF). “Planetary Defense: A Military Perspective,” Interna- tional Space Development Conference. National Space Society, Denver, Colorado, 24 May 2002. " David, 2002. ’ Brigadier General Simon, “Pete” Worden (USAF). NEOs, Planetary Defense and Government - A View from the Pentagon. Cambridge Conference Network (CCNet) Essay. 7 February 2000. http://ahob. libs. uga. edn/bobk/ccc/ce020700.html 140 MARTIN SCHWAB )0I Vo ' Foust, 2002. " Worden, 2000. Air University, 1994. Hubert Vedrine with Dominique Moisi. France in an Age of Globalization. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2001. Carl Sagan, Pale Blue Dot: A Vision of the Human Future in Space. New York: Random House, 1994. ] David Lake, Entangling Relations: American Foreign Policy in its Century. Princeton, New Jersey: j Princeton University Press, 1999. j '■* Daniel Durda, “The 2001 Shoemaker NEO Grant Awardees - A World of Observing Experience.” The Planetary Report. March/April 2001, Vol. 21, 15-17. " Lake, 1999. Paul Doremus, et al. The Myth of the Global Corporation. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1998. George Bush, Presidential Address before a Joint Session of Congress on the Cessation of the Persian Gulf Conflict, Washington D.C., 6 March 1991 http://bushlibrary.tamu.edu/papers/1991/91030600.html George Seldes, The Great Thoughts. New York: Ballantine Books, 1985. E.J. Hobsbawm, “The World Unified,” in Frank Lechner and John Boli, The Globalization Reader. Malden, Massachusetts: Blackwell Publishers Ltd. 2000. David, 2002. " Ibid. John Urias, et al. Planetary Defense: Catastrophic Health Insurance for Planet Earth. Research Paper Presented to Air Force 2025. October 1996 AFP, Beijing, “Asia-Pacific nations to set up space cooperation organization,” 1 1 November 2003. Webpage, “Resources,” Homeplanet Defense Institute, McLean, Virginia, www.homeplanetdefense.org/feedback.htm. Webpage, “The Threat of Large Earth-Orbit Crossing Asteroids,” Space Studies Institute, Princeton, New Jersey, www.ssi.org/body_earth_orbit_crossing_asteroids.html David, 2002. James Oberg, Planetary Climate Modification and the United States Space Command - As- Yet Unrecog- nized Missions in the post-2025 Time Frame. Futures Focus Day Symposium, sponsored by Com mander-in-Chief, United States Space Command, Colorado Springs, Colorado, 23 July 1998 http://abob.libs. uga. edu/bobk/oberg. html '' Worden, 2000. '' Ibid. Dr. Christian Gritzner, Abstract of “Near-Earth Object Hazard Mitigation Publication Analysis,” Institut fur Luft-und Raumfahrttechnik, Technische Universitat Dresden. Prepared for ESA-ESOC, Darmstadt, 18 January 200 1 . http.V/www. tu-dresden.de/mw/ilr/space/rfs/Dokumente/Publikationen/NEO-MlPA-report.pdf '' Urias, 1996. '' Ibid. Webpage, “The Torino Scale: Assessing Asteroid and Comet Impact Hazard Predictions in the 2U' Century,” NASA Ames Research Center, Asteroid and Comet Impact Hazards. http://impact.arc.nasa.gov/torino/llwhat ^ From Representative Brown’s opening statement to the Congressional hearings on the NEO threat, 24 March 1993 before the United States House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space and Technol- ogy. See Brown, The Honorable George. Asteroid and Comet Impact Hazards. American Institute of Aeronautics & Astronautics (AIAA) Position Paper. 1995. http://impact.arc.nasa.gov/reports/aiaa/ I I Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences, Volume 89, Numbers 3 & 4, 141-150, FallAVinter 2003 Nature’s Medicine Cabinet: Notes on Botanical Therapeutics at the Birth of the New World Alain Touwaide The Smithsonian Institution Abstract The period stretching from Columbus’s first voyage in 1492 to the mid-seventeenth cen- tury was a formative period in the development of medicine, especially botanical thera- peutics. This brief paper outlines the evolution of knowledge of medicinal plants during this period, which also saw the exploration of the New World. Old World Therapeutics Therapeutics in the Old World underwent a deep transformation in the 16th and 17th centuries, developing from its classical and medieval roots in directions that led toward modem empirical science. The Medieval Legacy. As the 15th century ended, the field of therapeutics in Europe was largely dominated by Arabic pharmacy. From the end of the 11th century onward, Arabic medical treatises (including pharmaceutical works) had been trans- lated into Latin in the scholarly centers of southern Europe (Salerno, Toledo, and Montpellier). These translations included many terms that were not translated but simply transliterated from Arabic, thus introducing uncertainty and confusion. This was particularly the case for technical terms and plant names. As a consequence, drugs, especially the Oriental ones previously unknown in the West, were not correctly identified by Western physicians and this gave rise to many mistakes. Furthermore, Arabic pharmaco-therapy heavily relied on compound drugs. Their action was not as well known as was that of simple drugs: did it associate the properties of all the components or was it a new property, specifically produced by the association of the components? This ambiguity led physicians to hypothetically describe the action of compound drugs by reasoning rather than by clinical experi- ence. Even more: physicians considered that such an action was unpredictable. Challenge by Early Humanists. After the Fall of Constantinople in 1453 brought about wider circulation of Greek texts in the West, such scientists as the Italian Nicolao Leoniceno began to compare Arabic, late medieval, classical Latin and 142 ALAIN TOUWAIDE T Greek therapeutic texts. Discovering similarities, Leoniceno concluded that not only * the Arabic and medieval works, but also such a classical and authoritative Latin treatise as the encyclopedic Historia Naturalis by Pliny, in the first century A.D., , were just epiphenomena of previous Greek literature and were characterized by; innumerable mistakes, a deep incomprehension of the original texts, and a lack of first-hand knowledge of botany. This was all the more true, he concluded, because as , works were passed along to later generations errors accumulated over time. As a i consequence, Leoniceno considered that the exercise of therapeutics relying on i| classical Latin, Arabic and medieval Latin works exposed patients to danger. He recommended that all the non-Greek literature be ignored, and that medical practice ■ should return to Greek therapeutic lore. His booklet, De Plinii aliorumque in medi- I cina erroribus {On the mistakes in medicine by Pliny and others) first published in i| 1492 in Ferrara, provoked a harsh polemic by traditionalists. Medical Humanism, In spite of the opposition to Leoniceno’ s thesis, Greek pharmaceutical literature was quickly reintroduced into contemporary European i science. As early as 1499, indeed, the Venetian publisher Aldo Manuzio published I the Greek text of the founding work of pharmacology, De materia medica by Dioscorides (ft century A.D.), which is an inventory and analysis of the natural! substances of all kinds (but mainly vegetable) used therapeutically. While the Greek text of the work was republished five times during the 16th century (in 1518, 1529, 1529-1530, 1549 and 1598), it was also translated into Latin and printed as early as . 1516 by the French doctor Jean Ruelle. This translation was also abundantly re- printed and plagiarized during the whole 16th century. The main purpose of this, activity was philological: it aimed to recover a full command of the meaning of the ■ text rather than to transform medical practice. At the beginning of the 1530s, however, the interest in classical Greek pharma- ceutical literature shifted from philology to botany. Scientists became interested in i identifying the plants mentioned by Dioscorides. For the first time, they equated the ■ plants described in De materia medica with those of Northern Europe. This was . particularly the case of two of the so-called “German Fathers of Botany,” Otto > Brunfels and Leonhart Fuchs, authors, respectively, of the Herbarum vivae eicones . {Living plant pictures), first published in Strasbourg, 1530, and De historia stirpiumi commentarii insignes {Notable commentaries on the history of plants) first published! in Basel, 1542. The word historia {history) is significant: it does not refer to history as the account of past facts, but is used in the sense it has in Aristotle’s scientific I works and means research, compilation of data on a topic. I In a second phase, scientific efforts were directed at searching for the plants, mentioned by Dioscorides in their original environment, the Mediterranean area. This . was mainly the contribution of the Italian doctor Pietro Andrea Mattioli, who ) published first an Italian translation and then a commentary on Dioscorides’ De' NATURE’S MEDICINE CABINET 143 'f'l) materia medica. With great energy, he constantly updated his work and repeatedly published new versions. From Erudition to Medical Practice. As the re-appropriation of ancient thera- peutic literature progressed, doctors gradually re-introduced into their practice the ol drugs, and their uses, that had been described in classical texts. This implied an as examination of previous recipes, aimed at eliminating the problems and dangers of sa medieval therapeutics. A precursor of this movement of revision was the so-called on Ricettario fiorentino published for the first time in 1498. Considered to be the first pharmacopoeia, the Ricettario was prepared by a committee of doctors commissioned by the City of Florence to ascertain the validity of medicines on the market and to recommend a list of safe preparations. in Later on, the Ferrara doctor Antonius Musa Brasavola, who was a student of Leoniceno, analyzed all the medicines prepared at that time by apothecaries, by types of preparations: Examen omnium simplicium, Examen omnium syroporum, Examen an omnium catapotium vel pilula, Examen omnium loch, id est linimentum (respectively: ed Examination of all simple medicines, of all syrups, of all catapotia or pills, of all loch, that is, unguents) His works were published from 1536 onward with many new :al editions, legal and not. As a consequence, many traditional preparations were el rejected, opening more widely the door to Greek classical lore. !9, The Application of Ancient Methods to New Floras. In a further phase, when as the ancient Greek legacy was fully dominated by erudite philologists and gradually e- reintroduced into practice by doctors and apothecaries, its methods were carried is beyond the classical Greek texts to describe and analyze other floras, drugs and medicines. Thus Dioscorides’ method was transferred from Mediterranean to Central and Northern European flora and drug lore. A good example of this is the series of works by Rembert Dodoens, each of which is devoted to a category of plants: De frugum historia {History of legumes, Anvers, 1552), Historia frumentorum {History of grain, Anvers, 1565), Florum et coronariorum odoratumque historia {History of flowers, wreaths and perfumed plants, Anvers, 1574), Purgantium ... historiae {Histories of purgative plants ..., Anvers, 1574), Historia vitis vinique {History of grape and wine, Cologne, 1574). At the same time, Dodoens also compiled a vast botanical synthesis, first pub- lished in two steps: Trium priorum de stirpium historia commentariorum imagines {Illustrations of the first three commentaries on plant history, Anvers, 1553) and Posteriorum trium ... de historia stirpium commentariorum imagines {Illustrations of the next three commentaries on plant history, Anvers, 1554). Then the two parts were published together: Commentariorum de stirpium historia ... imagines novae {New illustrations of the commentaries on plant history, Anvers, 1559). The final version is particularly famous for having been published first in Dutch under the title Cruyde- boek {Book of herbs), in Anvers, 1554. 144 ALAIN TOUWAIDE I This change in the object of botany and pharmacy was understandingly accom-* panied by a gradual move of the center of activity from Italy, first to Southern France ( (Montpellier) and then to Northern Europe, Belgium and the Netherlands (Leiden). I j Botanical Gardens: a Teaching Tool. In this progressive but rapid evolution of i t botany and pharmacy, a turning point was the creation of new botanic gardens in Pisa | | and Padua in 1542 and 1543 respectively. Such gardens were not a novelty. Since the ( early Middle Ages, indeed, monasteries had created botanic gardens for the cultiva- tion of the medicinal plants used for the treatment of sick monks and people. The i i new element in these Italian creations was their link with university teaching. Botanic J i gardens were conceived as teaching instruments, to make it possible for medical I i students personally to know the plants to be used for therapeutic purposes. The study j of plants was no longer limited by season and location, but was more widely avail- j able. This was all the more true when fresh plants were dried {hortus siccus). Fur- j thermore, botanic gardens enabled botanists to acclimate non-native plants. In all , these ways, botanic gardens transformed teaching activity and, hence, knowledge of plants, enhancing the practice of therapeutics. From Italy, this new model of teaching relying on direct observation of plants was transferred to Southern France (the University of Montpellier) by Archbishop Guillaume Pellicier, the ambassador from King Francois I to Venice, who lived in the | Serenissima Repubblica from 1539 to 1542. With Guillaume Rondelet, teaching of : botany in Montpellier thus included field expeditions to directly observe plants in I nature. This new kind of medical education attracted students from all over Europe, j who later duplicated this model in their native countries. Among these students, there ; was the Swiss Felix Platter, who created the botanic garden of Basel, and Charles de TEcluse, who succeeded Dodoens in 1593 as a professor of botany at the University : of Leiden, newly founded in 1575. In 1587 a botanic garden was founded at Leiden j and the university became very rapidly the botanical center of Europe. New botanic gardens were created later: Oxford in 1621, the Jardin des Plantes of Paris in 1626, Uppsala in 1665 and the Chelsea Physic Garden of London in 1673. Medicinal Botany in Spanish and English Literature The rapid re-assimilation of ancient botanical and therapeutic literature and their re-insertion into practice led, as early as the 1540s, to an abundant literature in vernacular languages. Brunfels and Fuchs first published their works in Latin: Herbarum vivae eicones {Living plant pictures, Strasbourg, 1530), and De historia stirpium commentarii insignes {Notable commentaries on the history of plants. Base, 1542), respectively. Further on, they translated them into German: Contrafayt Kreiiterbiich {Book of herbs, Strasbourg, 1532), and New Kreiiterbuch {New book of herbs, Strasbourg, 1543). NATURE’S MEDICINE CABINET 145 Jerome Bock, instead, first published his treatise in German: New Kreiltter Buck (New book of herbs, Strasbourg, 1539), and translated it into Latin later on: De stirpium commentariorum libri tres (Three books of commentaries on plants, Stras- bourg, 1552). At about the same time, a first Italian translation of Dioscorides’ De materia medica was published in Venice, in 1542, to be followed shortly by the first edition of Mattioli’s translation, also in Venice, in 1544. In the Spanish world, Dioscorides’ De materia medica was translated into Castilian by Andres de Laguna. Like Mattioli’s, this translation included an abundant commentary on the text aimed not only at identifying the plants, but also - if not primarily - at ascertaining their therapeutic properties. First published in Anvers by Jean de Laet in 1555, the work was then printed in Salamanca, first in 1563 and no less than four other times before 1586. During the same period, Juan Jarava translated into Castilian Fuchs’ Historia stirpium (History of plants): Historia de yerbas y plantas (History of herbs and plants), in Valencia, 1557. Laguna’s translation of Dioscorides’ De materia medica remained a reference in Spain until late in the 18th century. Fifty years after the last Salamanca edition (1586), it was reprinted in Valencia in 1635 and reprinted another four times before 1695, with yet another edition in Barcelona in 1677. Then it was printed in Madrid in 1733 and reprinted three more times by 1783. In England, the first herbal to be printed was The Crete Herball (London, 1526), which was a translation of the French version of the medieval Herbarius. The first original work on medicinal plants was the herbal of William Turner, published in several parts: the first part came out in London in 1551, and the second and third in Cologne in 1562 and 1568, with a reprint of the whole work the same year, also in Cologne (The first and seconde partes of the Herbal ... lately oversene corrected and enlarged with the Thride parte lately gathered and nowe set oute withe the names of the herbes in Greke Latin English Duche Frenche and in the Apothecaries and Herbaries ...). The work was illustrated with plant representations that reproduced the tables of Fuchs’ De historia stirpium. Continental scholarship was further assimilated into the English speaking world with Henry Lyte, who in 1578 published the first edition of his English translation of Dodoens’ Cruydebock (A niewe herball) made from the Erench version of the work. Then, in 1577, John Erampton published a version of Monardes’ complete works under the title Joy full newes out of the New-Found Worlde. Twenty years later in London there appeared the Herbal of John Gerarde. Mainly relying on Dodoens’ herbal, it also compiled material from other previously published works, be it the herbal by Turner or other Continental herbals such as those of Jakob Theodorus Tabernaemontanus, Pierre Pena and Matthias de L’Obel . Full of errors of all kinds, the work was corrected by L’Obel until Gerard stopped the revision. It was not republished until 1633, when it was revised by Thomas Johnson, assisted by John 146 ALAIN TOUWAIDE Goodyer, author of an English translation of Dioscorides’ De materia medica that remained unpublished. Almost simultaneously (1597) William Langham published a similar compilation on medicinal plants: The garden of health containing the sundry rare and hidden vertues and properties of all kindes of simples and plants. Together with the manner how they are to bee used and aplyed in medicine for the health of mans body ... Gathered by the long experience and industry (...). I Discovery of the New World’s Therapeutic Resources After Christopher Columbus reached the New World in 1492, Spaniards quickly j understood that the newly discovered continent was full of invaluable resources, not ^ only gold and precious stones, but also medicinal plants. As early as 1518, Paulus \ Riccius, Court Physician to the Emperor, realized that the bark of a small tree found i on the North coasts of South America, guaiacum (Guaiacum officinale L.), had ; diuretic and laxative properties. He had obtained its bark during a mission in Spain j and shared it with a German physician, Ulrich von Hutten, who in turn used it | successfully to treat syphilis. In 1519 von Hutten celebrated the efficacy of the plant • in a small treatise entitled De guaiaci rnedicina et morbo gallico {On the French ! diseases and its treatment by means of guaiac) printed in Mainz by Johann Schoefler. I Tobacco {Nicotiana tabacum L.) was known by Colombus from his first voyage j to the New World. Used in medicine to treat “blotches” according to Gerard’s Herbal I (1597), it was cultivated by European settlers from 1531 onward, and traded to | Portugal beginning about 1548. In 1561, it was brought to the French Court by Jean i| Nicot, the ambassador of the French kings Francois II and then Charles IX to the ,j Court of the Portuguese king Sebastiao. H After these first discoveries, importing plants from the New World became gradually more important. All such products identified and shipped by Spaniards t arrived in the harbor of Sevilla. There, in the mid 1500s, Nicolas Monardes collected J all kinds of plant products from the ships as they arrived, and analyzed their thera- peutic properties, using the concepts and methods of contemporary botanical and ] < pharmaceutical systems. In 1565 he published in Sevilla the results of his investiga- tions in his Dos libros, El uno trata de todas las cosas que traen de nuestras Indias I : Occidentales, que serven al uso de rnedicina y como se ha de usar de la rayz de | Mechoacan, purga excellentissima. El otro libro, trata de dos medicinas maravil- | losas que son contra todo veneno, la piedra bezaar, y la yerva escuergonera. Con la \ cura de los venenados. Do veran muchos secretos de naturaleza y de rnedicina, con j i grandes experiencias. {Two books. One deals with the products brought from our i Western Indies, which are used in medicine, and with how to use the Mechoacan ( root, an excellent purgative. The other book deals with all the marvelous medicinal ' \ products that are against all venoms, the bezoar stone and the escuergonera herb. [ NATURE’S MEDICINE CABINET 147 With the cure of victims of venom. From which will come many secrets of nature and medicine, with many great experiences.) In spite of Monardes’s claim to describe all the products coming from West In- dies, the work was necessarily incomplete. A first attempt toward a systematic inventory of traditional New World Indian therapeutic lore was made by Martin de la Cruz in collaboration with Juannes Badianus. In 1552 these two Aztec Indians, who had been educated in a Spanish Catholic school, compiled in both Latin and Aztec a list of diseases known to Aztec natives and the therapeutics traditionally used to treat them. The text was illustrated with 204 representations of plants. The manuscript, now owned by the Vatican Library — the so-called Badianus manuscript — was sent by the Vice-Roy of India, Don Francisco de Mendoza, to Charles V, King of Spain and Emperor of the Holy Roman Empire. Yet this valuable first hand report does not seem to have been used at the Spanish Court. It was not until 1570 that a systematic inventory of the New World resources was planned. In that year Felipe II, King of Spain and Emperor, sent Francisco Hernandez to the New World with the mission of gathering from local populations everything they knew about the natural resources of the New World. After three years of field work (February 1571 - March 1574), Hernandez wrote his massive Historia de las Plantas de Nueva Espaha. Meanwhile, Orta had fled to India to avoid the Catholic Inquisition, and began studying India’s traditional uses of medicinal plants. He discovered that they were very similar to those of classical Greek authors. Greek classical medical and thera- peutic texts had been translated into Arabic during the 9th century A.D., and then diffused through the whole Arabic world, including India. In Goa, Orta created a printing press and printed his work in 1563 under the title Coloquios dos simples, e drogas he cousas mediginais da India, e assi dalgumas frutas achadas nella onde se tratam algumas cousas tocantes a medigina, pratica, e outras cosas boas, pera saber ... {Conversations on simples, drugs and medicinal products from India, and also on some fruits ... where it is dealt with some things related to medicine, practical, and other things good to know ...). The Portuguese Cirstobal Acosta met Orta in India, brought Orta’s work back to Spain and translated it into Spanish. Costa also published another work, in which he plagiarized Orta’s Coloquios, though he added some new data and representations of plants. Unfortunately, these systematic and organized efforts had little or no impact on therapeutics — the European range of drugs was not transformed, nor did the colonial troops and settlers in the New World absorb and use local medicinal resources. The case of Hernandez’ encyclopedia is significant: the 38 volumes that the Protomedico brought to Spain contain copious information about plants, along with dry specimens and plant representations. However, all this material was left unstudied in the King’s 148 ALAIN TOUWAIDE library at El Escorial until King Felipe II, in 1580, commissioned his personal physician, the Italian doctor Antonio Recchi, to prepare an abridged version. A Castilian translation of this short version was published in Mexico in 1615 by Fancisco Ximenez (the Latin original text was not printed until 1651 in Rome). Hernandez’ full manuscript was destroyed in the fire that ravaged the Escorial in 1671. French, Dutch and English settlements in North America came later than the Spanish explorations. They did not substantially contribute to the knowledge of the natural medicinal resources of the New World, being more oriented toward trade. The Virginia Company settled Jamestown in 1607. There, tobacco was successfully cultivated from 1612 onward and traded to England seven years later. The Pilgrims, arriving on the Mayflower in 1620, largely modeled their daily life - including their therapeutic practices - on those of their homeland, all the more so because, in a first phase at least, their subsistence was shipped from the Old World. In their transfer to the New World, colonists at first merely continued their previ- ous practice of therapeutics. According to a theory that had a certain success in a period of national rivalry, people had to use the typical resources of their own natural habitat, particularly the plants, which were supposedly provided with specific properties to treat local diseases (i.e., those from the region of their birth). Already illustrated by the French doctor Symphorien Champier in his Rosa Gallica (Paris, 1514), the theory was repeated just before the beginning of the English colonial enterprise by an Englishman Timothy Bright, in the Treatise wherein is declared the sujficience of English medicines ... (London, 1580). Settlers’ drug lore was not, however, strictly limited to the resources of their na- tive area, but included the European common flora. This was all the more so because texts circulated all across Europe, first in Latin and then in vernacular translations. They created a common botanical and therapeutic knowledge, determined by the equation of local flora and therapeutic practices with those of previous works, be it ancient Greek treatises or more recent texts rooted in the classical tradition. Exchange of plants between the members of what has been rightly called “the Republic of Botanists” created this feeling of community and the unity of therapeutic lore. The species transferred by colonists to the New World and acclimated there for therapeutic purposes thus were those described in herbals diffused throughout Europe, from the medieval Herbarius to Laguna and most recent English works, be it original treatises or translations. The Underlying “Science” Therapeutic use of plants relied on a tradition dating back centuries, if not mil- lennia. Knowledge was probably gained empirically by trial and error from the dawn i NATURE’S MEDICINE CABINET 149 of Mankind onward. Across time and across cultures, people ate certain plants or brushed against certain plants and observed that these actions had certain effects - for good or ill. Ultimately, a body of lore grew up, the plants were named, the effects codified, and certain plants were routinely paired with the amelioration of specific conditions. Later on, this kind of science was recorded by learned physicians. In the Western World, this was not the case until Hippocrates and his followers, the so- called Hippocratic physicians, authors of the sixty treatises ascribed to Hippocrates himself, but written from Hippocrates’ period to the 2nd century A.D. From this epoch onward, previous empirical knowledge was theoretically analyzed according to different systems. One of the most striking, was atomism applied to medicine (ca. 1st century. B.C. - 1st century A.D.). This said that the therapeutic efficacy of drugs results from an exchange of particles between the drugs and the substance of the body. Fundamentally, two systems prevailed: holism and materialism. Their general conceptual framework was provided by the so-called theory of four elements. The entire universe (the cosmos) was supposedly made up of four elements associated in couples (earth and air, water and fire) that had opposite qualities (heavy and light, moist and dry). These elements and qualities combined to produce the basic fluids of life — blood, phlegm, yellow and black bile — themselves associated with specific organs. Disease was due to a disequilibrium in the nature or quantity of these fluids. Therapeutics thus consisted in restoring the original equilibrium. Its basic principle was the law of the contraries (contraria contrariis). Concretely, a deficiency or alteration of a vital fluid of the body had to be counter-balanced by a re-injection of this fluid by means of therapeutic substances. According to holism, the therapeutic activity of natural substances — mainly, but not only, plants — resulted from their inter-action with the four elements that consti- tuted the world. For example, a plant was considered calefacient because it was particularly exposed to the sun and assimilated its warmth as if it was an element it could capture. According to materialism, the action of therapeutic substances results from exchanges of particles as described above. During antiquity, holism was mainly represented by Dioscorides’ De materia medica and materialism by Galen’s works such as De simplicium medicamentorum temperamentis et facultatibus ( On the mixtures and properties of simple medicines). Galen’s system constituted a complicated association of material of different ori- gins. According to it, indeed, therapeutic substances contained not one, but two properties — in fact, a couple of opposites. Hence, the title of his work: On the mixtures ... of simple medicines, where mixture refers to the association of two opposite qualities in each matter. This association of properties was measured on a double scale of four degrees (one scale for each of the two opposite). As a conse- quence, the zero degree did not represent the absence of the two opposite qualities. V 150 ALAIN TOUWAIDE I V* but their equilibrium. On the other hand, Galen’s system relied on a certain form of materialism: the properties of therapeutic substances and their dynamic within the body was explained by the weight and structure of the particles the substances were made of. Galen’s therapeutic theories were not widely diffused in Byzantium, nor in the Middle Ages. In the Arabic World, however, they were greatly praised and consti-1 tuted the specific reason why Arabic physicians could not determine the final : property of compound medicines: if, indeed, an ingredient of a compound medicine associated two opposite qualities, what is the final property of the medicines that : contain it? This type of speculation was transmitted to the late Middle Ages from the 12thi century A.D. onward and further preserved and transmitted, so that they dominated 1 the field of therapeutics in the Renaissance, even though such a classicist as Leoni- • ceno fought to reject the influence of Arabic science and to return, instead, to Greek , pharmacology, specifically, Dioscorides’ holism. He did not fully succeed in hisi attempt, however. Therapeutic practice remained largely influenced by Arabic; preparations. While erudite physicians were involved in academic discussions and polemics, traditional healers continued to practice empirical therapeutics. They used remedies : transmitted to them from the most remote past without any other justification thani that they were told such remedies worked and that they did. The best example was> the use of foxglove to treat cardiac pathologies by a traditional English healer, whose; secret William Withering revealed in his 1785 Account of the Foxglove, and Some of! Its Medical Uses. DELEGATES TO THE WASHINGTON ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, REPRESENTING THE LOCAL AFFILIATED SOCIETIES Acoustical Society of America Paul Arveson American/Intemational Association of Dental Research J. Terrell Hoffeld American Association of Physics Teachers Frank R. Haig, S J. American Ceramics Society VACANT American Fisheries Society Ramona Schreiber American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Reginald C. Smith American Institute of Mining, Metallurgy & Exploration Michael Greeley American Meteorological Society Kenneth Carey American Nuclear Society Jim Heany American Phytopathological Society Kenneth L. Deahl American Society for Cybernetics Stuart Umpleby American Society for Microbiology VACANT American Society of Civil Engineers Kimberly Hughes American Society of Mechanical Engineers Daniel J. Vavrick American Society of Plant Physiology VACANT Anthropological Society of Washington Marilyn London ASM International Toni Marechaux Association for American Women in Science Emanuella Appetiti Association for Computing Machinery Lee Ohringer Association for Science, Technology, and Innovation F. Douglas Witherspoon Association of Information Technology Professionals Peg Kay Biological Society of Washington VACANT Botanical Society of Washington Alain Touwaide Chemical Society of Washington David A.H. Roethal District of Columbia Institute of Chemists David A.H. Roethal District of Columbia Psychology Association David Williams Eastern Sociological Society Ronald W. Mandersheid Electrochemical Society Robert L. Ruedisueli Entomological Society of Washington F. 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