anus eXVlI, Summer 2974 Energy and the Sea Solar flare, estimated to contain more energy than all that used on Earth during several decades. Photo was taken aboard Skylab on June 15, 1973. (The Perkin-Elmer Corporation) Until quite recently, concern over the world's energy problems has centered on production and conservation of fossil and fission fuels. Energy from the sea has been thought of principally in terms of intensifying the search for oil and gas on the continental shelves. Today, with conventional supplies trammeled by natural and political constraints, the suspicion is growing that the energy crisis we have been experiencing is merely a prelude to what will surely come in the absence of sustained efforts to husband nonrenewable resources while developing renewable ones. The seas become far more important in this context. There is extractable, renewable energy in their tides, currents, and temperature differences, in the winds that blow over them, in the very waters themselves. There is, as well, the likelihood of significant oil finds under the ocean floor and the possibility of siting nuclear power plants offshore. Scientists and engineers have known of the marine energy potential for years, in some instances for centuries. It has taken the spur of shortages and embargoes to translate that knowledge into programs that in time may give a new meaning to the old term of "sea power." Now that we have the desire to extract energy from the oceans, it remains to be seen if we have the stewardship to do so wisely. William H. MacLeish Editor COVER: William G. Metcalf NOTE: Readers who rubbed their eyes over last issue's cover were right to rub. The photograph of Hurricane Ava was reversed for design purposes, but the explanatory caption was not included. Oceanus Volume XVII, Summer 1974 The Woods Hole Oceanogiaphic Institution Woods Hole, Massachusetts ENERGY: NATURAL LIMITS AND ABUNDANCES by William S. von Arx -- We have to learn to live with the earth, not just on it. O PROVINCES OF PROMISE by K. O. Emery Despite natural and governmental hostility, new supplies of oil and gas are likely to be developed, some under the deep ocean floor. 1/1 USING TWO RENEWABLES by William E. Heronemus -- Wit idpo we r and ocean thermal differences are under intense study as energy sources free of depletion problems. HYDROGEN TO BURN by Howard P. Harrenstien Abundantly available in salt water and fresh, hydrogen comes close to being the ideal synthetic fuel. Q Q TIME AND TIDE by F. L. Law ton Tidal power is once again attracting attention, thanks in part to recent shifts in power economics. CURRENT FROM THE CURRENT by Harris B. Stewart, Jr. - The Florida Current is being studied as a source of supplementary power for booming south Florida. -sX SEA VS. STRUCTURE by Stephen C. Dexter Protecting metals from the environment is a cost not to be overlooked when doing business at sea. OFFSHORE NUCLEAR POWER STATIONS by Michael W. Golay — Nuclear power plants soon may be located offshore if legal, financial, and safety problems can be resolved. A /C Copyright © 1974 by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Energy: ^Natural Limits ^ itei JL A.-kJU- William S. vonArx V V ith the decline of ancient civilization - the sucessive incinerations of the great Library of Alexandria in the fourth century and the Moslem conquest of Egypt in the seventh — it remained for Persian and Arabian scholars to assemble, record, and continue to enlarge knowledge. The western world became aware of this heritage during the Crusades of the twelfth century when translations of Arabic records became available in Latin and various other tongues. These events provided the intellectual fuel for the Renaissance and eventually the industrial revolution, which, according to some, has about run its course. Today, the Arabs are again influencing history. They are making us realize that industrialized society is critically dependent upon the natural abundance of fuels. Indeed, by their petroleum export policies, they have forced us to reexamine our patterns of living and our demands upon the resources of the earth. Water power, wood, coal, and later petroleum and natural gas provided the energy needed to advance the industrial revolution and the profound social and ethical changes it provoked. Now we have a new social order, but the fuels we use to support it are running low. In the past century we probably have consumed more than half of the oil and gas in the geologic column and a smaller fraction of its coal. However much remains, the accumulation rate of these resources is so slow that they must be considered finite. So, too, must nuclear fuels. Any finite resource, however carefully husbanded, will eventually become exhausted. What we need is sustained, renewable energy and the self-discipline to live within its limits of abundance. But first, what is energy? In physics the word means "a capacity for performing work.'1 But the definition doesn't say how long it takes to get the work done. When energy is expended or work is done in a specific interval of time, the "rate of doing work" is called power, and that is really the subject of this article. Power can be expressed in a variety of units. All are exactly related and can be converted one to another; but it is simplest to use just one, the watt, as the unit of power. One watt is energy received or delivered at the rate of one joule per second. The joule is a metric unit of work or energy, and the second is, for present purposes, the interval of time swept out on the dials of ordinary clocks and watches. Briefly then, one watt of power is one joule of "energy" per second. A watt isn't very much power — think of a 100-watt reading lamp, then of a 140- horsepower automobile delivering a little over 100,000 watts of power. In contrast, global power levels are very large, so large that they will be expressed here in powers of ten - - 103 being a thousand watts, 106 a million, 109 a billion, and so on -- the exponent giving the number of zeros involved. The power of the sunshine reaching the earth is some 1017 watts; the present power demand of world civilization is close to 1013 watts; and the hydroelectric power we use totals about 1011 watts. (The words "some" and "about" represent uncertainty of precise numbers. Actual power levels may be double, triple, or quadruple these estimates, but not ten times as great; they thus remain within the same order of magnitude.) It may be helpful to recognize that hydroelectric power, even if doubled or tripled, still yields 1011 watts, or only about one percent of present needs. It would take a one-hundred-fold increase in developed water power to run our world at present power levels, but there simply isn't that much more water power available — even if all the snow and rainfall over the globe were taken into account. This does not mean that hydroelectric generators cannot add to the world supply of very useful power; but it suggests quite emphatically that the world's power demand cannot be satisfied by that "means alone, and that a search for alternative resources is best guided by the total power available in various other natural systems. The word "natural" is used advisedly. The power consumed in our industrialized and urbanized societies is all finally transformed into heat. If this heat is added to that provided by the sun, it too must be radiated away into space. The balance of heating and cooling in nature is maintained by energetic exchanges within the solid earth, oceans, and atmosphere, and in the growth and decay cycles of life and death among plants and animals. Modern civilization operates at a power level of 1013 watts, with a consequent heat production (mainly from fossil fuels) Hydroelectric power, even if doubled or tripled, could provide only about one percent of current global needs. (EPA-Documerica, Lyntha Scott Eiler) HP • JBBW . " .,._ I i which disturbs the solar-terrestrial heat balance by only 0.01 percent — seemingly a tolerable level except, possibly, in instances of unusual heat concentration, such as the thermal islands produced by large cities. Were our power production to be increased to 1014 (0.1 percent of the heat balance) or 1015 (one percent) watts by adding heat to the solar- terrestrial balance, significant alterations of climate could ensue. Whether these could be beneficial or harmful depends on factors outside the scope of this article. It seems important, then, that the fossil fuel era has shown us the tolerable upper limit in the addition of heat to the earth and taught us that further power demand must be placed on diversionary methods applied to cycles of energy exchange maintained naturally by the solar-terrestrial heat balance. The latter instruction tells us what to look for in the way of alternatives, and what upper limits of power production can be sustained. We would be very clever indeed if we could divert as much as 10 percent of the solar- terrestrial energy flux at the earth's surface into technologically useful forms. This would amount to some 1015 watts, which may be considered our "power ceiling" by diversionary methods. For nuclear and other exotic methods that add heat to the system, the power ceiling probably should not be above 1013 watts to preserve the balance of climate. World climates are fragile, especially in the polar regions. The atmosphere is probably the most sensitively balanced part of the world system, one which can show strongly nonlinear responses to energetic change (see Oceanus, Spring 1974). The latent heat of evaporation and precipitation is particularly important to the regimen of weather. The oceans store heat and serve as a ponderous buffer in the atmospheric water balance, thus stabilizing its behavior. But the resources of heat in the oceans cannot be overly taxed, if their store of heat is too greatly altered, their circulations will be disturbed and in turn disturb the atmosphere and the regimen of climate. On land, it is the rocky surfaces, soil color and moisture, vegetation, and even the works of man which enter this complicated scheme of balances — all driven by the solar flux. It can be seen, therefore, how carefully energy diversion must be practiced at power levels approaching that of the solar flux. But how much power does nature provide on a renewable basis? The disc of the earth intercepts about 1017 watts of solar energy, of which some 'Ml Man uses a tiny fraction of power recoverable from agricultt- 1016 watts is received at the rotating surface. The earth's surface is also warmed by radiogenic and primordial heat from its interior. A good deal of energy is involved in these latter processes, but the flux is not large — about 1010 watts — and is accessible only in certain tectonically active regions, such as the "ring of fire" around the Pacific Basin, the East African rift, and in the mid- ocean ridge system and its branches into the Mediterranean Sea. Another source of energy is gravitation -- the power of the luni-solar tide, especially as it moves the body of the ocean waters relative to the solid earth (see page 30). Here again, we find a total energy of some 1010 watts, and that's all there is on a day-to-day basis! Demographic projections also enter the picture. Within a century, the world population may grow from the present 4 billion to perhaps 10 billion. Some 1012 watts oduce. EPA-Documerica, Charles O'Rear will be needed as food for the subsistence of 10 billion souls, and 1014 watts if they all are to live what we now consider a "good life." The question before us is: how can we meet these demands and do so without adding more than 1013 watts of "new" energy to the solar-terrestrial balance? To begin with, we can rule out as general solutions to the energy problem all those resources having a world total yield below the subsistence requirements of 10 billion people. This metabolic energy demand can be provided by the solar flux in the production of edible carbohydrates, proteins, and fats in plants at the base of the food chain. But the good life requires more than subsistence levels of energy. However large these demands may be, there are several possible ways of meeting them, wholly or in part: Source Direct solar energy (received at earth's surface) Photosynthesis Organic decomposition Available ocean heat Available wind energy Precipitation Hydroelectric power Total Power in Watts 1016 10I3+ 1013+ 1013 1012 1012 10n This does not mean that geothermal energy at 1010 watts, the kinetic energy of ocean currents or tides at 1010 watts, and other "renewable" resources are to be overlooked. Each can serve local needs and reduce some of the remaining demand. But our quarry in this discussion is the identification of possible alternative resources which are clean, renewable, and capable of sustaining us indefinitely at least at present levels of power demand. Direct conversion of solar energy into electrical or other more useful forms of power is attractive because the present world power demand could be met by dedicating less than one percent of the world's surface area to this process. But there are difficulties with the day-night effect, which requires enormous storage facilities. The production of hydrogen gas by electrolysis of water is often suggested as a practical means of both storage and distribution. There are economic problems, too, in that the present technology of collection and conversion is not easily extended to large-scale operations at reasonable costs. For these reasons, it seems better to await developments rather than to discuss the problem of direct conversion of solar energy at this writing. Instead, we will look into the natural processes that derive their energies from the sun to see what they have to offer. Surface air flow (see page 20) has been used as a source of power for ships since the rise of civilization and, on land, for milling grain and pumping water since about the 12th century. It is surprising that this power source has not been the subject of intensive exploitation and technological innovation until recently, and even now it is employed only on a domestic or light industrial scale. Adaptations of the controllable pitch propeller and the air turbine have been shown to produce power in significant quantities when the wind blows. However, owing to the variability of wind speed and incidence of calm, it has been necessary in electrical systems to provide a buffer between the generator and the load. Several kinds of buffer have been proposed. One is simply a bank of batteries. More recently it has been suggested that energy be stored in high- capacity rotors and even transported by them. Electric power may also be stored by electrolyzing fresh water into its component gases, hydrogen and oxygen, which when liquefied and bottled, or simply pumped through pipelines, could be burned at the place and time of demand to produce not only energy but much needed pure water. But is the wind energetic enough to satisfy our needs? The kinetic energy of the world's wind systems amounts to a staggering 1020 watts. This represents a stored resource, however, which can be drained at no more than its replenishment rate if it is to perform as a renewable resource. Thus, we are concerned with the "available" kinetic energy of winds, replenished at a power level not exceeding the solar flux at the surface, 1016 watts, because the atmospheric circulation is driven mainly by heating from below. Meteorological evidence shows that the world average wind speed in the lower atmosphere is about 10 meters per second. The density of surface air being near 1.1 kilograms per cubic meter, it follows that the maximum available kinetic energy of wind power averages near 500 watts per square meter of collected flow. At higher levels in the atmosphere, the average wind speed is increased, but the air density is decreased according to the Gas Law. The increase of wind speed with height is approximately logarithmic in the boundary layer but may rise to 100 meters per second or more in the jet stream. The height of this feature is so great, near 10 kilometers, that it is difficult to imagine reasonable methods for capturing its kinetic energy. Moreover, the flow meanders across a wide band of middle latitudes. Alternatively, there are valley winds and orographic effects, such as the "Bishop wave" in the lee of the Sierra Nevada, which are accessible at mountain-top level. Mountain peaks in general are noted for their windy conditions, but the high ones are also famous for snow, icing, and rime formation. The steadiest winds are found in the Trade Wind zone. Icing is not a problem below the inversion layer, but hurricanes can be troublesome in certain areas. A judicious choice of sites can minimize the risk of these natural hazards. The main problem in wind power collection is its scale. To meet present world energy demands, some 10,000 collectors would be required, each of 1000-megawatt capacity. Clearly, this matter lies in the provinces of bankers and engineers, but the power needed is there if we can manage to capture it. Another promising resource may be found in the thermal contrasts involved in the structure of the world oceans (see page 20). Knowledge of this is not at all new and has a distinguished history. It was in 1814 that von Humboldt wrote that water is cold at great depths in the tropics and explained this as a consequence of sinking and outflow of surface water conditioned in the polar regions. In 1881, D'Arsonval predicted that man would someday "mine" the tropical oceans for heat to power his civilization, rather than mine the earth for fossil fuels. Georges Claude made an attempt to operate a water vapor 8 turbine in this way in 1930, and the recent technical and economic treatments of the prospect have been given as late as the past year by Clarence Zener. With this great weight of prestige and scholarship behind the scheme, ocean thermal power may well emerge as one qualified solution of the energy problem. There is an enormous resource of solar energy stored as heat in the surface layers of the subtropical oceans, which, if released in one second, would produce about 1028 watts. This warm water overlies much colder water at depths which vary with latitude from 1000 meters near 30°N and S to only a little more than 100 meters near the equator. The thermodynamic efficiency of the temperature differences is small (about 3 percent), but the water volumes are truly enormous. The problem is that of "concentrating" the heat, as is done naturally by the Gulf Stream or Kuroshio, or proliferating the points of its extraction. In the latter course, it has been estimated that with several hundred large floating or island-based "solar sea-power" generating plants, it should be possible to provide the world with some 1013 watts of power at reasonable cost. At this level of heat extraction, it is predicted that the ocean surface layer would be cooled by about 1°C. Here a cautionary remark might be appropriate: some investigators have estimated that a 2°C drop in world average temperature would precipitate a glacial readvance. If true, this would place an upper limit on ocean thermal energy conversion at about 1013 watt level. Another resource involving the ocean- atmosphere system is hydroelectric power, a singularly clean and environmentally agreeable way of serving our energy needs. Unfortunately, hydroelectric power is already about 25 percent developed, and therefore even an order of magnitude increase above its 1011 watt production level cannofbe realized. But present installations work at or above sea level. Is there something to be gained by arranging for water to fall into sinks below sea level in climates where they could be emptied by evaporation? The average height of land is about 840 meters above sea level. This may be regarded as the average head available in successive steps for conventional hydroelectric operations. No single step is that large, to be sure, but heads of as much as 100 meters exist. Natural depressions below sea level can be almost as deep, but what they lack in head, they may make up in receiving area, and hence in total discharge through turbines. It has been suggested that the Red Sea might be dammed at the Strait of Bab el Mandeb and at the Suez end so that in the course of a few decades, its level would be lowered by evaporation about 100 meters below that of the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. Hydroelectric power plants at either, or both, ends of the Red Sea could allow water to flow in at rates which would compensate for evaporation and thus maintain the head at a constant value. The flow would amount to some 105 cubic meters per second and produce some 1011 watts. This would double the world supply of hydroelectric power, but at what risk? The Red Sea is part of the East African Rift system, which is seismically active. Removing the weight of 100 meters of water from this part of the crust would reduce the pressure on it by 10 bars.* In that the strength of the earth's crust is questionable at 100 bars, and the region is already under stress, it is conceivable that the reduction of load might have seismic (not to mention political) repercussions, which, to say the least, are not very good for dams. To look at this proposal in another way, in the Mediterranean and Red seas the evaporative losses are so great that there is a powerful net flow of sea water into their basins. Owing to the rotation of the earth and their northern latitudes, the inflow is * One bar equals 106 dynes/cm2, or very nearly the standard atmospheric pressure. stronger and deeper on the right-hand sides of the Straits of Gibralter and Bab el Mandeb. There is also an outflow of brines, strongest on the opposite side and above sill depth, which makes room for even more water to join the inflow. These currents have sufficient kinetic energy to produce some 109 watts without foreseeable risk. "Tide mills" in channels arranged to engage the incoming and outgoing flows could be used to good effect in these straits until enough is known about rock mechanics and large-scale crustal behavior under changing loads to risk building dams across them. The beauty of hydroelectric power is that it forms a pacific diversion of gravitational and thermal energy that is returned to the natural cycles of water and heat flow that go on from day to day anyway. Another such process is photosynthesis. Green plants from tiny mosses to giant trees thrive over two-thirds of the world's land masses, and phytoplankton abound in better than one-tenth of its oceans. All of these use the energy of sunlight to fix carbon in the form of protein, fats, and carbohydrates which supply the bottom of the food chain. The power involved in agricultural photosynthesis is about 1013 watts, but the human population utilizes only one percent of it. We reap grains, fruits and berries, tubers and roots, certain leaves, and occasional saps. The rest is either abandoned, burned, or plowed under to restore the land. Yet the very things we reject have produced, by anaerobic decomposition, our fossil coal, oil, and gas fuels, although very slowly and haphazardly. A basic question is: can we assist this natural process to produce sustained "renewable" power? In our system of life, we harvest, process, package, deliver, consume, and eventually excrete foodstuffs. The energy required to go through this cycle in industrialized nations is said to be ten times greater than the energy derived from the food itself— about 1012 watts in all. The wastes of garbage, sewage, packaging, and the energy of the disposal systems are regarded as unproductive expenses. Yet, we know, and have demonstrated, that all the unharvested vegetable matter left in the fields, the garbage, sewage, and rubbish of feeding a population can be digested anaerobically (or more precisely "anoxically") to produce excellent fertilizer, and methane, a very high quality fuel. In other words, we could turn an open-ended problem into a closed cycle of food regeneration, going from Anaerobic digestion of phytoplankton could provide methane j solar heat to human heat and amenities in a natural way. In the world today, about ten million square kilometers of land are under cultivation — about 6 percent of the earth's land area and 2 percent of the whole globe. This seems a small percentage of use, but whole regions are not farmed because of permafrost, jungle, desert conditions, mountain masses, brackish or insufficient water. Elsewhere, the 10 human inhabitants can survive on natural abundances. Be that as it may, the land under cultivation produces vegetable matter having a power equivalent of 1012 watts; of this, some 1011 watts is food, mostly grains. Practical efficiencies generally being low, it will be assumed that 10 percent is reasonable for methane production by anaerobic digestion. If 100 tons of vegetable matter are grown on each square kilometer, and perhaps one-tenth harvested for food, ir fishing vessels. Howard A. S chuck, NMFS we are still left with about one billion tons of material for anaerobic digestion. The resulting weight of fertilizer would be about 90 percent of that of the raw charge, and the methane produced at 10 percent efficiency would be ten million tons, which is 10 percent of the present world consumption of natural gas. Upon combustion, this volume of gas could produce 1017 watts of power. This may seem to be getting something for nothing, but it must be remembered that vegetation is integrating solar energy over the whole growing season, and this yield is computed as though it were all expended in one second. Over a year, the power flux from agriculture alone would be near 1011 watts — quite enough to keep mechanized farms fueled indefinitely. These power estimates, based on vegetable production on arable lands alone, are certainly conservative and, moreover, ignore the sea. Phytoplankton production in the oceans amounts to some 1010 tons (dry weight) per year, which, if harvested for power alone, would produce 1014 watts -- ten times more than that needed on a sustained basis to supply civilization. We have assumed a methane production efficiency of 10 percent in these calculations. If the catching, or culturing, efficiency is of the same order, the power production falls to 1013 watts, which is still sufficient to meet present world power needs. This suggests that, initially at least, plankton gathering and anaerobic digestion might be a practical way to provide fuel for ships at sea, especially fishing vessels, which ply the plankton-rich waters where fish also abound. Returning attention to the land, it is estimated that domestic animals produce about two billion tons of manure per year. If this were subjected to anaerobic digestion, it could provide some 1012 watts of power for the mechanical operations in meat growing, processing, and distribution. In cities, where a large fraction of the food is consumed, metabolized, and excreted, there is a power resource of some 1010 watts in sewage and garbage. This resource would turn a costly local disposal problem into an asset and close the natural cycle of energy exchange between the sun and earth, plants and animals, without putting "new" energy into the system. Since cities are to become more numerous as the world population increases, and they take a lot of power to be run comfortably, it would be highly desirable in urban planning to design a closed cycle of foods, power, and wastes. In cold climates, if aerobic as well as 11 anaerobic digesters are operated within the city limits, the heat of aerobic decomposition could be utilized to hasten anaerobic decomposition. The solid residues, which tend to be rich in heavy metals, and thus unsuitable as fertilizers, could be used as clean fill or building materials. In these ways, even a city could be made to function as a more "natural" part of the earth. In recent centuries, we have learned a great deal about the earth but not much about our relationship to it. It is becoming clear that we now have to learn to live with the earth and not just on it. Moreover, we are wasteful. In our present practices, we reject more than half of the energy produced from fuels. For example, electric power plants take in three times as much energy in fuel as they put out in electric power, and much of the machinery operated by electricity is less than 50 percent efficient. Steam plants and internal combustion engines are thermodynamically inefficient because their exhaust temperatures are high above absolute zero. There is not much that can be done about that except to reexamine how effectively such machines are used. For example, there could be almost no such thing as "waste heat" if energy-consuming processes were to be arranged in an orderly cascade of decreasing input-output temperatures. The magnitude of our present energy demand, when considered against the solar- terrestrial heat balance, is truly small -- about 0.01 percent of the earth's budget. It seems probable that we may learn to divert to our uses as much as 0.1 percent of the energy present in natural cycles. But if we do, it will become mandatory to put things back in ways that fit the natural regimen, to provide loops in our uses of materials, foods and energy so that the balances of the earth are preserved. Energy management will not only present an engineering challenge but also require some fundamental readjustment of present patterns in economic and political decision-making - an adjustment of our ways of life to stay within the capacities of the earth to sustain us. Conservation of energy may be not so much a matter of belt-tightening as a mature reappraisal of values in its uses. In a world of naturally governed abundances of energy, supplies may not be harshly limited, but there will be no room in our ways of life for opportunism or profligacy. The words "change" or "reassignment" must be substituted for "growth," although economic growth and increasing comfort in living standards may well result from sensible humanistic planning. Life in the era of natural abundances will be a different but probably satisfying adventure -- one that will draw upon the same thoughtful and resilient qualities of human nature that our parents under- stood and that our children urge us to reassert. William S. von Arx is a Senior Scientist in the Institution's Department of Physical Oceanography. For further reading in this field: Bates, Marston, The Forest and the Sea, Random House, New York, I960; Brown, Harrison, The Challenge of Man's Future, Viking Press, New York, 1954; Brown, Lester JR., World Without Borders, Vintage (929), New York, 1973; Cloud, Preston, ed., Resources and Man, Pub. No. 1703, National Academy of Sciences, W, H. Freeman and Co., San Francisco, 1969; Udall, Stewart, The Quiet Crisis, Avon Books, New York, 1963. 12 Focusing the Surf Ordinary wind waves are another possible source of energy, though the process of extraction poses some problems. When the water depth is less than one-quarter wavelength, the celerity of surface wave propagation is proportional to the inverse square of the wavelength. This effect causes wave crest lines to turn toward the shoreline and, in the end, to "fit" the coast. The energy density per unit crest length is modified by the sense of curvature. Here, then, is an opportunity to produce focused wave energy along coastlines abutting broad continental shelves. An artificial shoal some tens of wavelengths long, measured parallel to the coast, and properly shaped (it would resemble a crescentic shoal, convex seaward), could focus the energy of swell on a "horn" designed to accept the amplified surge. With further amplification in this receiver, a head of some tens of meters might be achieved and the water stored for a time to supply hydroelectric turbogenerators and thus yield power for transmission. Such a system would have to be replicated again and again along a coast to have a usefully large effective aperture. The array would operate only as a supplementary power source, however, being active just when suitable storm systems pass over the adjacent sea. This may amount to a week at a time for each storm and thus keep the array in practically continuous service during the winter months in middle latitudes, but not so in the milder seasons. It is difficult to estimate the amount of power such a system could provide, but a rough estimate places the yield in the order of 10 megawatts* per kilometer of coastline. The length of suitable * One megawatt equals one million watts. coastline in the world is about five thousand kilometers. Owing to the alternation of winter seasons between hemispheres and the contemporaneous occurrence of mild periods during the equinoxes, it would be incorrect to multiply these two figures to obtain a grand total. Generally, wave erosion of coasts has so redistributed loose materials on the bottom and along the beaches that a minimum of sediment transport is required to absorb the incoming wave energy. An array of "lenses" and "horns" to capture wave energy could upset this balance disastrously. It may be well to mention that another kind of wave exists in the oceans, the internal wave, which is not often thought of as a power-producing resource. Internal waves can exist in the presence of vertical gradients of water density but are most easily detected where they propagate on a sharp interface between layers of water having distinctly different temperatures. They are slow-moving because of the "reduced gravity" effect of buoyancy forces, but they are large in amplitude — as much as 100 meters in some instances. Like surface waves, they may be reflected, refracted, develop interference patterns, and, under some conditions, "break." That these waves possess impressive power is clearly indicated by the "diving ballast and trim" records of submarines. But again, their energy density per unit crest length is low in comparison with that of the whole wave system. This requires some sort of arrangement to concentrate their energy. Submarine canyons may be useful as "horn" collectors, but it may be even better to look for bottom topography that could produce focusing effects. W. S. von A. 13 Distance in Kilometers ..d*- D •* * •'••MttWjjn,... A B . 4** D Provinces of Promise K O PWWY) -t\.V^/. _L(r rIC'f y Present offshore production of oil and gas is approaching 20 percent of total world production, and there is every prospect that both the quantity and the percentage will increase considerably during the next decade. Limits to the rate of increase appear to be due to high dollar costs of drilling (partly offset by lower costs of marine geophysical exploration), to sociopolitical fears of some nations, but probably not to possible environmental costs. About 97 percent of the offshore production is by oil companies (from industrial nations) which have obtained concessions or leases from host governments. Government bureaus in centrally planned economies handle most of the remainder. Their output is small, probably because of lesser know-how and greater fear of unrewarded risks. (In this context, national companies such as British Petroleum and Compagnie Francais du Petrol are considered non-government, as the government control is limited to ownership of the majority of the stock and not to geological operations.) The work of universities and oceanographic institutions involving offshore petroleum is, of course, different from that of the oil companies. Academic and research scientists study the sources and accumulation of Pagoda structures on abyssal plains and lower continental rises off western Africa. White triangles (sections of cones) are believed to have been cemented by methane hydrates, or clathrates. Seismic reflection shows basement-sediment interface at roughly 4700 meters (A), 4600 meters (B) and (C), and 3850 meters (D). petroleum, investigate the causes and distribution of petroleum provinces, and attempt to learn the origin of continents and ocean basins and the composition and history of continental margins. (Oil companies undertake such studies and investigations, but because the findings of oil-company geologists in this area are not likely to be approved by management for open publication, their efforts are not widely recognized.) During the course of their studies, oceanographers may discover large sedimentary basins or other potential petroleum provinces. But if oil is to be found, it is the oil companies that must make the closely spaced and expensive geophysical traverses in order to obtain the necessary ''drill-here" information. Present production of oil and gas from the continental shelves of the world is fairly localized (Figure 1). At least 95 percent of it represents oceanward extensions of oil provinces previously known and exploited on the adjacent land (see Oceauiis, Spring 1973). There is little doubt that most of the undiscovered oil and gas on the shelves lies in provinces not closely related to those on land. The best known of these are off Australia, where a decade ago the government recognized the futility of expecting large production on land and offered tax concessions for offshore exploration and exploitation. Some of the North Sea structures that produce Tertiary oil also are unrelated to those of the land. Similar sites likely to be proven productive 15 PRODUCTION OF CRUDE OIL 1972 in the near future are on the Atlantic continental shelf of North America (Figure 2), the Atlantic shelves of southwestern and northwestern Africa (Figure 3), and the Pacific shelf off eastern Asia (Figure 4). All three areas have been investigated by oceanographers (and by some companies), who have found thick prisms of fine-grained as well as coarse- grained sediment underlying the continental shelves. The linearity of the American and African deposits appears to be typical of continental margins that border the Atlantic Ocean, where crustal plates include both the continents and the adjacent ocean floor. In contrast, the continental shelf off eastern Asia is an area ot convergence between continental and oceanic crustal plates, with consequent active block faulting and folding of the continental margin. Many continental margins remain unexplored because of inhospitality of climate (drifting ice in high latitudes) or of governments. The latter constitutes a complex problem. Some governments are moved by ideological considerations to keep their shelves to themselves. Others fear that the ten or so nations possessing the advanced geophysical tools and methods necessary for offshore exploration may use this knowledge as an entering wedge of colonialistic exploitation. This in spite of the fact that the most advanced among developing nations FIGURE 1. Distribution of crude oil production on the continental shelves of the world. Numbers denote the millions of tons of oil produced during 1972 from fields on different segments of the shelves. Areas believed to have the greatest potential for oilandgas are shown in solid black; many of these potential petroleum provinces are still unexplored because of hostile climates or fearful adjacent nations. appear to be those which have welcomed oil company interest. Whatever the motivation, governmental hostility to offshore exploration has resulted in severe limitation of knowledge concerning the continental shelves that border many nations -- including those off India, mainland China, the Soviet Union and its satellite nations. The result is that roughly three quarters of the published studies of geophysical traverses and bottom samples of the world's shelves deal with areas off the United States and Europe - all open industrial nations. In short, shelf areas of high petroleum potential (inferred from general geological knowledge) are far larger than those where petroleum production has begun; yet for one reason or another, most of these areas remain unexplored by modern geological methods. Production of oil and gas from parts of the continental margin* deeper than the continental shelves has been impeded mainly through lack of reliable methods for ocean- floor well completions. Most likely these * The continental margin comprises the continental shelf, the continental slope (descending from the edge of the shelf), and the continental rise (a gentler declivity extending out to the abyssal plains). 16 FIGURE 2. Total thickness of sediments (in kilometers) above basement along the Atlantic continental margin of North America, based on geophysical studies at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory, and other organizations during the past three decades. Except off eastern Canada and in the Gulf of Mexico, this province remains undrilled and untested, owing to fears of oil spills during drilling and production. technological problems will be solved during the coming decade, and oil and gas can then be produced economically from far greater water depths than at present. One such deep- water environment is represented by small marginal basins, nearly all of which are located near Pacific Ocean coasts. Examples are the many basins off southern California, several of which (the Los Angeles and Ventura basins) have been filled to overflowing with sediments similar to those that have produced about 15 percent of the United States' oil and gas. The most promising are adjacent to the shore and thus have received thick layers of land-derived sands that serve as oil reservoir beds. Santa Barbara is the best known. Oil production from its shallower parts has been curtailed temporarily for environmental reasons. Basins farther from shore are unlikely to be very productive because they lack reservoir sands. Quite a different kind of marginal feature is the China Basin on the opposite side of the Pacific Ocean (Figure 4). Prominent fold ridges cross the floor of this basin, and coral reefs on the ridges reach close enough to the surface FIGURE 3. Total thickness of sediments (in kilometers) above basement along the Atlantic continental margin of Africa, based mainly on studies by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution during 1972-73 as part of the International Decade of Ocean Exploration. Black areas denote belts of salt diapirs. Most of the prospective areas are in water depths beyond the capacity of present drilling and production technology. FIGURE 4. Distribution of thick sediments (in kilometers) within basins off eastern Asia, based on a series of studies by the U.S. Naval Oceanographic Office and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution between 1968 and 1971. Double hatching denotes filled basins beneath the continental shelf; single hatching, partly filled basins beneath deep water. Single hatching in the sinuous patterns in the China Basin (west of the Philippine Islands just south of the middle of the figure) denotes fold ridges that rise above the otherwise flat basin floor. Production as yet is almost entirely restricted to the southernmost part, owing to conflicting claims to the sea floor by adjacent nations. 17 to serve as natural drilling platforms. Whether or not oil and gas are present is unknown. However, the expectations of nearby nations are such that confrontations between South Vietnam, Philippines, and mainland China occurred earlier this year, resulting in the sinking of several ships. Another deep-water province of high petroleum potential is the continental rise, perhaps the major sedimentary depositional feature of Earth. It is best developed in the Atlantic and Indian oceans, where its growth is unimpeded by the thrusting of the ocean floor beneath the continents, such as that which occurs around the Pacific Ocean (Figure 5). Production of oil and gas from this feature is likely to be extremely difficult, owing to great depth of water and distance from shore, but these same factors may immunize the offshore fields from the various forms of nationalization that are plaguing petroleum development on land in many nations of Africa and South America. Deep-water salt diapirs offer high potential as traps for oil and gas. These structures are common on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean, having begun as thick beds of salt and gypsum deposited as evaporites 160 to 200 million years ago within long narrow arms of the ocean formed when North America and South America began to move away from Africa and Europe. Later deposition atop the evaporites of denser sediments from the land areas caused masses of salt to rise upward through the sediments in the form of salt domes or diapirs. Best known are belts of diapirs beneath the land and the continental shelf in the Gulf of Mexico; these have produced about 15 per cent of the United States' oil and gas. They continue farther oceanward beneath the continental slope and rise, and even occur beneath the abyssal plains. Similar belts have been found and mapped off western Africa; others are known to exist off eastern Canada and eastern Brazil, in the Mediterranean Sea, and beneath the continental shelf of the North Sea. Production from the deep-water diapirs is likely to have the same sort of difficulties as production from the continental rises, with which they are closely associated. Lastly, rather peculiar structures were observed on the otherwise flat and smooth abyssal plains and lower continental rises during geophysical studies conducted by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution scientists off western Africa during 1972 and 1973. The term "pagoda structures" has been applied to them because of their shape -- like the roofs of pagodas (see page 14). They were observed along nearly halt the total length of geophysical traverses of sediment-covered ocean floor. Their seemingly greater abundance off Africa than in other parts of the world is attributed to the use of particularly good 3.5 kilohertz seismic recording equipment during the African cruises. While the origin of the features is by no means established, they may represent partial cementation of the bottom sediments by gas hydrates or clathrates, a form of gas (probably methane) that exists as a solid under the high pressure and low temperature of the depths. If more detailed investigations show that the pagoda structures really do contain considerable methane, they may become useful reserves of gas for the energy -hungry nations of the world. Annual production of oil and gas from most land areas may have passed its peak, but production from the ocean floor still is expanding and probably will surpass that from the land within a decade. The dimensions of peak production from the ocean and the time of its achievement will depend upon a number of factors: 1. The rate at which exploration of new ocean areas can be completed (largely political in nature). 2. Development of means to overcome ice damage to installations on the shelves at high latitudes (technological in nature). 3. Continued improvement in preventing oil spills, particularly those associated with shipboard transport of oil (both legal and 18 technological). 4. Development of methods for well completions and production in water depths beyond the shelf edge (technological). 5. The rate at which substitute sources of energy, particularly oil from shale and coal, can become practical (chiefly a matter of economics and technology). These scientific, technological, political, legal, sociological, and economic limitations are likely to be steadily overcome in ways that may not now be visualized. Barring large increases in consumption, fossil oil and gas are thus likely to continue as major sources of fuel for more than one hundred years. FIGURE 5 . Distribution of continental rises throughout the world ocean, compiled from topographic charts guided by geophysical traverses from many sources. Chevrons show positions of crustal plate convergences where the ocean floor is thrust beneath continental margins and where continental rises cannot accumulate. K. O. Emery is a Senior Scientist in the Institution's Department of Geology and Geophysics. 19 William E. Heromnms I I Windpower can be used on small as well as large scale. Device above, made from a bicycle wheel, powers radio at New Alchemy farm in Falmouth, Mass. (Vicky Briscoe) Those who have lived with the sea are keenly aware of a vast energy of motion and of the marked differences in heat content at different locations in the water column and in the overlying atmosphere. It is at this ancient interface, with its 800-to-l difference in weight density, that a large portion of each day's new ration of solar radiation is received, and from which much of the degraded long-wave radiation begins its return to outer space. Along with the kinetic energy in air and water particles, we also find natural mechanisms which in certain places can create large increases in the potential energy of the water mass; energy fluctuations which can be trapped in tidal power extraction systems; and the potential energy stored in wind waves. For many centuries and with varying degrees of success, inventive man has used motions of wind and sea to propel his machines. Today, there is increasingly strong evidence that the wealthiest and most technically sophisticated of current societies should once again direct its sights toward these tradiational energy sources. Why? First, because they can do useful work with very little, if any, resultant pollution; second, because their potential is vast compared to the total result of all of mankind's frenzied and expensive efforts with combustion and fission; third, because they are renewable resources whose use would be effected through processes which would not limit the improvement in material well-being of other nations or of future generations. The major input which sustains these processes is solar energy, received at the surface of the earth's atmosphere at a rate of about 5000 quintillion British thermal units of energy per year (one quintillion, or one Q, equals 1018). The secondary inputs are the work done on water and air by the gravitational fields of sun and moon and by the spinning of the earth. Each year about 65 Q of these inputs finally manifests itself as kinetic energy in moving particles of air - the winds. The annual energy inputs into tidal flows and oceanic currents are probably two orders of magnitude smaller than 65 Q, whereas that taking the form of heat stored in the surface layers of the ocean is one order of magnitude larger. If we wish to order the processes by their energy potential, we would thus place the heat stored in the oceans first, the kinetic energy stored in the winds second, the potential and kinetic energy in wind waves third, and the potential and kinetic energy in tidal flows and in oceanic currents fourth. It remains to discuss the feasibility, technical and economic, of extracting any of this energy for our direct use. Winds, even those blowing over the seas, are regional phenomena. Every man of the sea knows of the nor'easter, the roaring forties, the doldrums, the horse latitudes. There are at least 57 winds recognized by name. Each wind has its own characteristics: there are the rather moderate but very steady trades, and there are the westerlies, sometimes blustering, sometimes flat calm. They appear random and capricious, yet when one studies the wind from the viewpoint of energy content -- taking measurements at fixed locations and heights for periods of a year - one finds the wind to be a remarkably reproducible phenomenon. When winds at specific sites are examined for energy content, it is soon apparent that the most energetic of them are over the oceans. Winds leaving a land mass, moving out over open water, show a marked ability to intensify in velocity after passing over a relatively short fetch of open water. The large-scale atmospheric processes which produce such features as the generally low-pressure area over the northern Atlantic and the similar "pressure- sink" over the northern Pacific occur in regions rather unfriendly to man. But the winds they create manifest themselves on or close to many shores accessible as work sites. The rate at which the atmospheric processes create and sustain the winds does seem to vary regionally. Whereas the horse latitudes* are large earth-girdling zones in which a * The area roughly between 30° N and S, characterized by calm and light variable winds. 21 Winds over Mt. Washington, New Hampshire, and their seaward extension are testing ground for large-scale windpower usage. (Jonathan Lingel, Mt. Washington Observatory) steady, moderate conversion of solar energy to kinetic energy seems to persist, the belt of land comprising the northern United States and southern Canada, from the Rockies eastward appears to be one in which a rapid but seasonally variational rate of kinetic energy conversion occurs. Winds off this belt reach very high velocities over the top of Mount Washington and across the French islands to the south of Newfoundland. By the time they have reached the fishing banks, they are usually quite fresh, except during August and September, when warming of the sea surface in that area is near its peak. In 1970, the winds over New England and their seaward extension, the offshore westerlies, became the testing ground for a major feasibility study of windpower as a large-scale source of energy. The idea that windpower could -- indeed should -- provide a major portion of the electricity demanded by a modern industrial society was already well documented. Many competent men and serious-minded organizations in a number of different countries had worked on the technology of windpower conversion for several decades — had shown clearly that the resource was huge and that utilization was technically quite practical. But they had been unable to demonstrate that wind-generated electricity could compete economically with electricity generated by heat engines burning $2.50-per-ton coal or ten-cent-per-gallon diesel oil or three-cent-per-gallon residual - costs that pertained some fifteen years ago when these fuels were thought to be nearly inexhaustible. The promise of even less expensive electricity from large numbers of nuclear plants caused the abandonment of all windpower programs. We at the University of Massachusetts reopened the issue primarily because we thought that this country was headed toward a more realistic concept of capitalistic Jan Hahn economics in which the externalities associated with energy-industry pollution would be costed so that the energy consumer would pay more of the total cost of that energy. Given that eventuality, we argued, pollution-free, wind- generated electricity might be shown to be economically competitive. It was also decided that the economics of earlier windpower systems had been unfavorable because no one had attempted to sell electricity on demand, thus taking advantage of the entire breadth of the rate structure. Earlier schemes had attempted to compete with the differential cost of fuel, saving fuel only when the wind blew. We knew of the relative freshness of the offshore winds; excellent long-term velocity data taken at three Texas towers corroborated the intensification-over-water hypothesis. So it was decided that a concept for a large windpower electricity generating system, offshore in the westerlies, capable of selling electricity on demand, would be set down for analysis. The resulting Offshore Windpower System (OWPS) was shown to be large enough to provide most of the New England electricity market projected for 1990. Later studies showed that the system could easily be twice as large, selling up to 360 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity per year, transmitted and delivered throughout the six-state New England region. This first concept was an all-hydrogen system; all electricity was to be used to create hydrogen gas, a storable as well as a low-cost energy transmission agent (see page 28). The cost of delivered product from that first OWPS — average revenue per kilowatt- hour of electricity delivered on demand - was not competitive with the 28.3 mills per kilowatt-hour average required revenue prevailing in 1972. Those who had studied the overall problem of generation and transmission of electricity in New England in 1968-1970 were convinced that the average required revenue per kilowatt-hour would decrease steadily beyond 1968 as it had actually done prior to 1968. However, they were quite wrong in their estimate of that situation. Subsequent studies of the 360 billion kilowatt-hours per year and of a smaller OWPS using both electricity-in-cable and pipeline hydrogen gas energy transmission, have shown that the 1972 OWPS average required revenue per kilowatt-hour of about 31 mills could be m " dropped to 26 to 28 mills. At the same time, the average required revenue for conventional power in New England turned upward; it passed 31 mills in 1972 and is now well over 36 mills, when averaged over the entire region. (It must be clearly understood that the competitive price for electricity generated by windpower systems depends upon large-scale manufacture of all components of the system — something that would be entirely feasible and proper.) Where, other than on the front porch of New England, could the winds over the oceans provide large amounts of electricity or synthetic fuel (hydrogen, methanol) or fertilizer (ammonia)? There are many oceanic sites sufficiently near shore, and in shallow enough water, to be connected to the consuming market by pipeline or cable umbilicals. A partial list: the shelf off our middle-Atlantic states; the shelf off Nova Scotia; the shelf to the westward of Ireland; the Irish Sea; the eastward edges of the North Sea; the near-shore portion of the Baltic off Sweden and Finland; the shelf adjacent to the entire Aleutian Archipelago; the narrow shelf west of and the broader shelf east of South Africa; the shelf south of Australia; and the shelf adjacent to the Kurils. Any of the islands in the stronger trade regimes and those, like the Falklands and the Prince Edwards, in the roaring forties are excellent sites. Extraction of energy from the winds could proceed afloat on the high seas in the most favorable wind regimes, the wind generator platform doubling as a self-propelled tank ship equipped to generate and liquify electrolytically produced hydrogen. A new concept along this line, which includes wind propulsion, is under investigation by the author. Further, great amounts of energy could be extracted over a region like the Great Bahama Bank from a forest of wind generators, installed in a way that would accomplish negligible harm to the bank or the biota living thereon. What a magnificent export product for that small nation! Wind-generated electricity at many sites throughout the West Indies could provide ecologically pure energy to expanded resort communities and, in some places, could lead to clean industries such as the electrolytic refining of aluminum and the electric remelting of high-alloy steel products. In the oceanic winds, we have a huge energy resource that modern technology can harness to serve our needs on demand. It could be put to use in the very near term, economically, in an aesthetically satisfactory way, and with no pollution of any kind. Important as winds are, however, it will be remembered that first priority among the sources of potential energy listed earlier went to the collection of energy in the surface layer of the tropical seas. Those who know their geography are aware that the ocean accounts for 90 percent of the earth's surface between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn. That is where the most intense solar radiation reaches earth. The heat capacity of water is greater than that of any other liquid and, indeed, is one of those properties which distinguishes water as the most remarkable of our earthly compounds. But the sun cannot penetrate very deeply into the seas. That fact plus the many phenomena which, combined, create the gross circulation of the oceans, produce the cold water which underlies even the hottest of the tropical seas. Whereas an astronomically huge reservoir of hot surface water by itself can do little for man from an energy point of view, the combination of a vast heat reservoir plus a vast cold reservoir only a short distance away can do much. Investigations into the technical and economic feasibility of tapping the energy potential of oceanic thermal differences are being supported here at the University of Massachusetts and at Carnegie Mellon University by the RANN (Research Applied to National Needs) Directorate of the National Science Foundation. The work at Massachusetts, to date, has been aimed at one specific application of the process — a system 24 Proposed 400-megawatt ocean thermal differences power plant, shown here, would operate like a huge refrigerator in reverse. Warm surface water gives up heat through tubes of evaporators (A) changing refrigerant working fluid into vapor under pressure. Cold bottom water is brought up through inlet tube (F) and hinge joint (E) to chill condenser tubes under turbines located in pressure hulls (B). Low- pressure region is thus created, toward which vapor can expand, operating turbines in process. Warmed bottom water is collected in circulating water overboard trunk (C) and redirected toward bottom. Access is through towers (D) extending above surface. Plant will have 16 power packages, each yielding 25 megawatts of electricity. Structure is 675 feet long, 495 feet wide, 390 feet high. Inlet tube is 1060 feet long; lower end is 66 feet above seabed. which could deliver large amounts of electricity or hydrogen fuel by cable and pipeline to the lower forty-eight states. Because of this specific approach, first suggested by the Andersons* in 1964, we have arrived at some conclusions which reflect the application as well as the process. We have concluded that large numbers of thermal differences power plants could operate in a rather large area, 15 miles east-to-west by 550 miles south-to-north, along the western portion of the Gulf Stream. They could produce electricity or hydrogen gas at a cost which would permit either product to be transmitted to almost any point in the United States and sold at a competitive price. The Ocean Thermal Differences Power Plant is conceived here as the inverse of the mechanical refrigeration plant on a rather large scale. A closed Rankine cycle using a refrigerant (propane, ammonia, a Freon®)t as a working fluid is made to operate across a temperature difference as small as 17° * J. H. Anderson and his son, J. H. Anderson, Jr., are founders of Sea Solar Power, Inc. of York, Pennsylvania. t ® Freon is the registered trademark of Du Pont. Celsius, producing useful work at an overall efficiency on the order of 1.5 percent. The warm surface water gives up heat through the walls of the evaporator tubes, changing the working fluid into a vapor under pressure. The cold bottom water is brought up and used to chill the condenser tubes under the turbine, thus creating a region of low pressure toward which the vapor can expand and do useful work in the process. Power packages comprising evaporator (boiler), turbine, condenser, pumps, and piping have been designed. They are to be sized to match a turbine having a shaft work capacity of about 37 megawatts. The power plant itself is a semi-submersible structure containing multiple units of these 37-megawatt gross power packages. Each 37-megawatt package will yield about 25 megawatt-electrical net power, so that the power plants are sized as multiples of 25 megawatts of electricity (MWe). Our first experimental plant will include 16 of those packages and is thus a 400 MWe power plant — no small unit by today's standards. We will place it at "Site One," located 25 kilometers due east of the Collier Building at 25 the University of Miami in about 360 meters of water. At Site One we have a 17°C temperature difference for about 30 days of the year, and a larger difference other times. Our investigation began with the hope that the total installed cost per kilowatt (net) of the plant, including 15 miles of energy umbilical, would be $400. Our current calculations, based on 1973 prices, suggest that S650 per kilowatt may be closer to the mark for a system improved by installation of pressure-proof metallic heat exchangers. One of these power plants, brought on line in 1980 at a cost per kilowatt of less than $1100, will win the Florida market from any forseeable nuclear or fossil fuel competitor. Each $100 in capital cost below $1100 means another 200 miles of transmission distance through which this system's product could win that competition. Thus, ocean thermal differences plants installed at $650 per kilowatt off Miami should be able to win the Chicago market away from the nuclear by 1980. The liquid metal fast breeder reactor doesn't have the slightest chance of competing economically against this system. No breakthroughs or new inventions are required here, only the careful application of straightforward technology. With the proper national or private commitment, an operating demonstration plant could be on site within six to eight years. The mooring, anchor, cold-water inlet pipe, and the detailed design of the evaporators and condensers are the controlling items, all of which could be brought along, step by step, in a well-paced development program lasting six years and resulting in the operating demonstration plant. ARCTIC OCEAN ARCTIC OCEAN \ ANTARCTIC OCEAN ^f:V:-Ky.W-\:yff:W:f.Vf^::-W.y-' '• ' ' SSSSx&SxSS: 26 In the winds over the oceans, and in the thermal differences which the sun creates, we have bountiful resources- of pollution-free energy. It is left for others in this issue to describe the energy in the tides and in the currents. These processes are the way of the future. When combined with other solar energy processes, they constitute the only energy regime which can sustain any real growth without making our globe uninhabitable. They are the processes toward which the developing nations, all rich in solar energy, should be helped to move. And the leader in that assistance should be the nation which has the greatest need itself to get on with solar energy -- the United States. Instead of a Project Independence based on pique, sacrifice of our first minimal actions toward control of pollution, and a false concept of a viable future energy economy, we should be embarking on Project Solar Dependence, a deliberate plan of action that would place us in harmony with the biosphere, using nothing other than renewable energy resources. Intelligent use of the oceans and their overlying atmosphere will permit us to get started on the project right now. William E. Heronemus is Professor of Civil Engineering at the University of Massachusetts. WIND DIRECTION Left: Analysis of ocean windpower potential made in 19 39 by Sverre Peterssen. Measurements are based on emplacement of Smith-Putnam 1250-kilowatt machines with propeller axes 150 feet above surface. Numbers are estimates of probable annual productivity per kilowatt of installed generator size. Thus, on the 4000 contour, each kilowatt of generator would yield 4000 kilowatt-hours during the 8700 hours of the year. Farther out to sea, east of Labrador, the yield would be greater than 5000 kilowatt-hours per year, "a fantastic yield," says the author. Right: Floating four-megawatt wind station made from low cut-in wind generators. BUOYANCY SPHERE BALLAST BOX ANCHOR 27 Hydro -A- r^ < To Burn Howard P Harrenstien The conveniences of fossil fuels are certainly well known and, in fact, have long been taken for granted. As the world finds its reserves of these fuels being depleted, and as more intensive efforts are undertaken to locate additional supplies, many of these conveniences will be reviewed and questioned. For example, as supplies dwindle, increasing pressures for large price increases will in part erode the economic advantages which fossil fuels have enjoyed since their discovery. Years ago, increases in price and decreases in availability of natural rubber provided the motivation to invent and develop the superior synthetic rubber product. Today these same pressures are causing scientists and engineers to look for alternative, and possibly superior, synthetic fuels. A synthetic fuel needs a primary energy source for its production. If this source is petroleum, little is to be gained as far as petroleum conservation is concerned. If the primary energy source is something else, then perhaps a major impact on the world's petroleum conservation efforts may be realized: petroleum may be preserved for use in petrochemicals and other higher-priority items. When synthetic fuels are contemplated, we might just as well look for the most desirable, since present technology could be aimed in any one of a number of directions. What is needed is a fuel which can be easily manufactured from extensive resources, such as coal or nuclear materials, or from solar, oceanic, geothermal, and other renewable sources of energy; one which can be easily transported and stored (a liquid or gas would be satisfactory); and one which would be clean-burning while yielding a maximum heat output from a minimum of weight and/or volume, if, in addition, it were safe to handle and non-toxic, the fuel would appear to be ideal. No such fuel exists, but hydrogen comes close. It can be bottled, stored, piped, pumped, burned, exploded, liquified, and even used to take man to the moon. It is the cleanest-burning fuel, giving off only water vapor and heat when burned in oxygen. When burned in air, it still primarily exhausts water vapor and heat and , if the fire is hot enough, small amounts of oxides of nitrogen. Although free hydrogen is not as plentiful in the earth's atmosphere as it is in the universe, there is plenty of it stored in chemical compound with oxygen in the form of water, in the earth's oceans, lakes, streams, and aquifers. In this resource, it is stoichiometrically balanced with oxygen at a rate of two atoms of hydrogen for each atom of oxygen -- the ratio required for the complete combustion of hydrogen. Hydrogen can be transported, either by pipeline or in cryogenic tankers. It can be safely substituted for petroleum and coal in almost all existing industrial processes which require a reducing agent, such as steel 28 manufacturing and other metallurgical operations. And it can be easily converted to other fuel forms, such as methanol, ammonia, and hydrazine. Internal combustion engines run efficiently on this fuel, as do gas turbines. Fuel-cells, which are flameless, produce electricity from hydrogen at high efficiencies. Where storage of hydrogen, either cryogenically or under pressure, is not convenient, it may be stored as a metal hydride. This material releases its hydrogen when heated. The universality of this lightest of known elements is intriguing. Two atoms of hydrogen make a molecule, H2 , which does not vary in quality with respect to origin or location. By that I mean that a molecule of hydrogen made by electrolysis of seawater using electricity generated by the Florida Current looks just like a molecule of hydrogen made from coal gasification in Montana, or a molecule made from wind generators, through electrolysis, in Massachusetts. Hydrogen manufactured by volcanic or solar means in Japan or Hawaii may be mixed with any of these other molecules, and the composite will be identical. Thus the hydrogen economy offers the world a truly universal fuel system with complete compatibility of end product, regardless of the source. This universality would ultimately offer excellent economics in the interchangeability and transmissibility of technology between the industrialized nations of the world. The cost of initial conversion is obviously high, but the benefits are far reaching. Many of the proposed new sources of primary energy, such as wind energy, ocean waves, ocean currents, ocean thermal differences, solar energy, and geothermal energy all suffer location disadvantages. They generally are not present in the right magnitude at the right place and at the right time for them to be directly converted to electricity and placed on line at that point. Even if they could be so converted, line losses imposed by transmission distances would place a heavy tax on efficiency. Enter hydrogen. Ocean thermal electric plants, which are located in the tropical seas, could generate it on location and store it at hydrostatic pressure on the sea bottom. Ocean tankers could collect the product at the proper time and deliver it to the world marketplace at great efficiencies in energy conservation. Ocean current generators could also produce the gas in much the same way at those locations where the currents are optimum. The same delivery system could be employed. Floating stable platforms, using pho.tovoltaics and electrolysis to convert solar energy to hydrogen in mid-ocean, could also be placed "on-line" as far as the hydrogen system described is concerned. As a matter of fact, even bottom-of-the-sea geothermal energy plants could be developed to produce hydrogen for these purposes. In sum, the hydrogen economy may hold the key to the integration of many new sources of energy into a common, environmentally acceptable synthetic fuel - one which will allow us to conserve our precious fossil fuel reserves and, at the same time, develop a higher-level technology to advance the quality of life in this country and the world. Howard Harrenstien is Dean of the School of Engineering and Environmental Design at the University of Miami. He recently chaired The Hydrogen Economy Miami Energy (THEME) Conference, sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Advanced Research Projects Agency. Proceedings of the conference are available through the University of Miami. 29 byELLawton Tidal energy is abstracted from seawater at locations where estuaries or embayments and control structures permit utilization of the head.* Tidal-power plants operate on the continuously varying differences in level between the water in the basin constituted by the controlled estuary or embayment, on the landward side, and the water in the sea. The basin must be filled from the sea or emptied to the sea as required by the operating regime of the power plant, so that production can be matched with the demand on the power network to which the plant is connected. It is technically feasible today to exploit much of the conservatively estimated 13,000 megawatts of the world's tidal-energy resources. Tidal energy, converted to electric energy, is free from any deleterious effect on the air, water, or land environment. Its exploitation rests on its economic competitiveness when all internal and external costs of competing energy resources are properly assessed. The uncertain availabilities and escalating costs of fossil fuels and, perhaps to a somewhat lesser extent, of fissionable fuels are inexorably advancing the time when tidal power will come into its own. Records indicate that by the eleventh century tide mills were in use along the Atlantic coast of Europe, notably in Great Britain, France, and Spain. Even as late as the mid-nineteenth century, tidal energy was used widely in coastal areas where the tides attained a sufficient range. Twenty-foot * Difference in elevation between two points in a body of seawater or other fluid. **• . w .•:vr • i World's only large, modern tidal-power development lies ac waterwheels installed in 1580 under the arches of London Bridge were providing part of the city's water supply some two and a half centuries later. A tidal-power installation for pumping sewage was still in use in Hamburg in 1880. Other installations have been reported throughout this era in Russia, North America, and Italy. Some of the old structures were of impressive size. A tide mill in Rhode Island, built in the eighteenth century, used 20-ton wheels, 11 feet in diameter and 26 feet in width. Early tide mills produced small amounts of mechanical energy — about 30 to 100 30 mce River estuary in France. kilowatts -- generally used at the site. This was enough to satisfy demand before the advent of the electric motor and long-distance power transmission. The disappearance of tidal-power generation towards the end of the nineteenth century has been attributed to power economics. However, new concepts of construction and marked advances in large, better-adapted generating units have reawakened interest in the resource as a possible competitor with other forms of energy. Engineers have examined a large number of locations potentially favorable to tidal-power Courtesy of the French Embassy development. These include sites in the estuaries and embayments of northeastern North America, the English Channel and North Sea coasts, the Irish Sea, Barents and White seas, the Gulf of Alaska, the Okhotsk Sea, and the coasts of Korea, China, the Gulf of Bengal, Pakistan, Western Australia, and Southern Argentina. The USSR has slowly and methodically pursued work leading to the ultimate development of tidal-power generation, the principal proponent being L. B. Bernshtein. A small tidal-power plant was recently placed in service in Kislaya Bay, a deep basin 31 Passamaquoddy tidal-power project has long history. Here, visitors from Washington look over early designs. (U. S. Army Corps of Engineers) with an area of one square kilometer, connected with the sea by a narrow estuary about 100 feet in width. The tidal range is something under 11 feet. Conceived as an experimental undertaking involving minimal expenditures, the basic concept entails the use of prefabricated caissons built under factory conditions at a suitable location, floated, towed to the site, and there sunk into prepared foundations. In addition, the USSR is reported to be investigating a first-stage, 4000-megawatt development in the Mezen sector of the White Sea, with others to follow. They have in mind the possible development of a 320,000- kilowatt tidal-power plant at Lumbovskaya, where a bay with an area of 70 square kilometers can be cut off by a relatively short dam. Other tidal-power schemes, all in embayments of the White Sea and in estuaries of rivers flowing into it, would use flood tides of about 30 feet. The French boast the world's only large modern tidal-power development. The facility lies across the estuary of the Ranee River, which empties into the Atlantic Ocean between Saint-Malo and Dinard on the coast of Brittany. An average tidal range of 27 feet is utilized in 24 units, each rated at 10 megawatts, providing an annual production of 544 million kilowatt-hours. Inaugurated late in 1966, this power plant is notable for its development and use of the turbine, essentially a horizontal-axis propeller turbine with variable pitch runner blades. The turbine is connected to a generator enclosed in a nacelle or bulb upstream from the turbine in the passage by which water is conveyed to the turbine. The runner is so designed that it can operate as a turbine with flow from the basin to the sea or from the sea to the basin, and pump in either direction as well. It can also serve as an orifice, passing about 50 percent of its normal flow. Electricite de France has also carried out extensive tidal-power investigations in L'Aber Vrach on the northwestern coast of Brittany and in the vicinity of Mont St. Michel near St. Malo. In North America, studies of large-scale, tidal-power developments at various sites have been made during the last six decades by both Canadian and American agencies. 0 32 Two only are discussed herein: the Bay of Fundy and its western arm, Passamaquoddy Bay. Both boast the exceptionally high tide ranges and large controllable embayments basic to economic tidal power. Tides in the Bay of Fundy are semi-diurnal. The interval between the transit of the moon and the TABLE 1 Tidal Ranges at Locations of Potential Tidal Power Developments Site Location Tidal Range (ft.) Maximum Minimum 7.1 Mary's Pt. to Grindstone Is. 43.7 19.1 to Cape Maringouin 7.2 Ward Pt. to Joggins Head 44.4 21.6 8.1 Economy Pt. to Cape Tenny 52.9 23.9 occurence of high water is nearly constant: the tides are extremely regular, there being two tides of nearly the same magnitude and pattern each 24 hour, 50 minute lunar day. Table 1 shows the range of tides encountered at several sites of interest. The tide is the so-called anomalistic type, the variation in range with the distance of the moon from perigee to apogee being the greatest variation. The spring tides each month vary by a relatively small amount. Reference has been made to the controlled estuary or embayment. Its importance lies in the phenomenon of tidal amplification, which under certain circumstances can materially modify the tidal range available at a given location and hence the head utilizable for power generation. The principal lunar, semi-diurnal, tide -producing component in the Bay of Fundy has a wavelength of about 745 miles.* The quarter-wavelength, then, is approximately 186 miles. Taking the mouth of the Bay of Fundy as a line running from Yarmouth, Nova Scotia, to Jonesport, Maine, the length of the bay is 159 miles to Cape Maringouin at the head of Chignecto Bay and 178 miles to a line from Economy Point to Cape Tenny. These lengths are sufficiently close to the quarter-wavelength to provide a * Mean depth of the bay is 240 feet. Model of Passamaquoddy Tidal Power Project. (U. S. Army Corps of Engineers) --. . P,OWER STATION N0.1 ' -^-^ T-J&5* SWITCHYARD POWER STATION NO. 2 V N 33 Map shows three sites (7.1, 7.2, and 8.1) in Bay ofFundy selected for intensive study by Canadian experts. partial explanation for the extremely high tides at the heads of the two arms of the bay. The vertical and lateral convergence of the bay from its mouth to its heads also plays an important role. The International Passamaquoddy Engineering Board, in its report of October, 1959, recommended for specific design and costing a tidal-power project using Passamaquoddy Bay as the high pool, with Cobscook Bay in Maine and Friar Roads in New Brunswick as the low pool (see map). The power plant, located at Carryingplace Cove, would have thirty 320-inch propeller- type, vertical axis turbines driving 10- megawatt, 13.8-kilovolt, 60-hertz generators at 40 rpm, operating under an average head of 11 feet. Connection with a hydroelectric plant was studied, as was a pumped-storage operation on a river emptying into Passamaquoddy. Though the investigation showed that the dependable capacity of the combination would amount to 323 megawatts and net annual generation to 1759 million kilowatt-hours, the scheme - and later variants - were found to be uneconomic. In August, 1966, the governments of Canada, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia set up the Atlantic Tidal Power Programming Board and the Atlantic Tidal Power Engineering and Management Committee, for which latter the author was the Study Director. Between November, 1966, and March, 1970, twenty-three sites — all in the Bay of Fundy — were looked over in a preliminary manner, and, after two series of evaluations, three were examined in detail (see map). Investigations covered all relevant aspects of tides, geology, ecology, foundation conditions, ice formation, construction, generating equipment, transmission, 34 production, and costs of tidal-power and alternative systems. A computer was used to help assess the significance of the implantation of tidal-power plants on the tidal regime of the Bay of Fundy. Several practical power schemes received consideration during this study. These were selected from a range of proposals, many extremely complex and correspondingly costly. The intricacy often sprang from efforts to correct the basic weakness of tidal power: a. variable production not necessarily in phase with human needs. Selected for special study were: The single-effect, single-basin scheme. The Dldest form of power generation, it was the basis of many tidal mills operating in Western Europe during the tenth and eleventh :enturies. The basin is filled on the flood :ide, and the sluice gates are closed at the high point of the cycle. Generation begins thereafter, the unit turbine operating on the difference in level of the water in the basin ind that in the sea. In principle, operation in reverse is feasible, but production will be somewhat less. The single-effect, single-basin scheme can produce variable "slugs" of energy but no sustained power. The double-effect, single-basin scheme. Exemplified by the Ranee development, it utilizes civil works similar to those of the dngle-effect, single -basin concept, since it nvolves a single basin with double-effect generation and pumping plus use of the generating units as orifices to supplement iluiceway capacity. Power is generated during Doth filling and emptying phases. Starting .vith the point in the operating cycle of the dngle-effect, single-basin concept where the turbines are under the minimum head at which generation is feasible, the runner blades ire feathered and the turbines function as Drifices which, with or without the sluices, smpty the basin to a level equal to that of the sea. After closure of the sluices and orifices, and after a suitable waiting period, during which the sea level rises above basin level, the generating units begin generation with flow from the sea to the basin. At the end of the generating phase the basin is filled, and subsequent operation with flow to the sea is similar to that in the single-effect, single- basin concept. The double-effect, single- basin concept is capable of producing dependable power at any desired time during the solar day. This is achieved at the expense of energy production, which is less than that of the single-effect, single-basin scheme. The linked-basin concept. Suggested for Passamaquoddy, it entails the use of two more or less contiguous basins of suitable proportions. Such conditions exist at the mouths of Shepody Bay and Cumberland Basin. One basin can be operated as a high pool and the other as the low. The linked-basin concept was developed in response to the need for The high and low of it at a Fundy dock. (U. S. Army Corps of Engineers) 35 continuously available power. It requires less sophisticated generating units than some other schemes and may be economically attractive in the relatively few cases where two estuaries or embayments are physically close and suitable for development. The paired-basin scheme. Consisting of two single-effect, single-basin schemes inter- connected electrically, this arrangement affords somewhat more flexibility in operation to meet market demands. In certain cases where there is a difference in tidal phase, it may produce greater benefits than do other approaches. Pumped storage was also considered as a supplementary power source for the Bay of Fundy sites. Although it requires additional capital investment, its ability to store low-value off-peak energy for subsequent use as high- quality, peak energy of maximum value makes it attractive. A hydraulic, pumped-storage facility provides flexibility in assigning energy to best advantage in meeting load requirements. The capacity and method of operation selected for the pumped-storage plant is determined by a number of factors, such as the volume of the storage reservoir, the characteristics of the output required by the system, and the installed capacity of the tidal-power plant. The pumped-storage element at the three Bay of Fundy sites was predicated on both lower and upper basins using natural topographical features which could be enhanced by damming low sectors of the flow line, with either fresh or sea water serving as the working fluid. Where rock types and quality are suitable and a natural upper basin does not exist, the sea can substitute for the upper basin and underground chambers (or, in some cases, worked-out mines near the coast) for the lower basin. Another means of upgrading the production of a single-effect, single -basin tidal-power plant (the type recommended for the Bay of Fundy sites) is the substitution of air compressors for the electric generators. The air is stored in underground caverns and released at peak periods of demand to drive TABLE 2 Cost of Energy At-Site from Single-Effect Single-Basin Schemes* Item Cost of energy at-site mills 7.5 (kilowatt-hour) Site 7.1 Site 7.2 Site 8.1 8.7 5.6 No firm capacity is produced. TABLE 3 Cost of Dependable Peak and Energy At-Site from Double-Effect Single-Basin Schemes Site 7.1 Site 7.2 Site 8.1 32.65 40.29 25.20 Item Dependable peak* at site ($/kilowatt) Energy credit (mills/kilowatt-hour) 2.31 2.31 2.31 * Available 95% of time (total hour basis), 2 hours/day, 60 days/year. gas turbine units feeding the power network. Based on 1968 costs and seven percent money, costs of energy produced at our three sites from single -effect, single-basin schemes are indicated by Table 2, while Table 3 gives the costs of dependable peak and energy from double-effect single-basin schemes at the same three sites. These and other 1968 costs are currently under review by the sponsors of the Bay of Fundy tidal-power studies. The optimized developments were determined, on the assumption that all of the output from any of the schemes could be marketed. The unit costs of power and energy were based on the total output, determined from power production studies. The unit costs of energy were computed by deducting from the annual costs a credit of S9.50 per kilowatt of dependable capacity. The at-site unit costs of dependable capacity for each of the schemes were computed by assuming an energy value of 2.31 mills per kilowatt-hour. The value was derived from a weighted averaging of displacement energy values in the regional power system and in 36 ;he contiguous northeastern United States narket, with due allowance for monetary exchange rates and the proportions of displacement energy which might be sold in ;he Maritimes and in the United States. It has been conservatively estimated that he amount of tidal energy dissipated in the .hallow seas, embayments and estuaries of he world is approximately 3 x 106 megawatts. Phe average potential power for the most nteresting tidal-power projects in North and South America, Europe, and Asia has been :stimated at 63,775 megawatts, of which ibout 13,000 megawatts might be abstracted. 7ederal Power Commission and Electrical Vorld data place the total USA electric ?ower industry capability at the end of last fear at 438,492 megawatts, and hydroelectric :apability, including pumped-storage, at )1,280 megawatts. The maximum probable vorld tidal-power capability would be, •espectively, about 3.0 percent and 21.2 )ercent of these amounts. Thus tidal energy :an be important, locally, if it cahnot be a najor contribution to national energy •esources. A good deal remains to be done before nan can deal effectively with tidal power. The basic theory necessary for its development has been well established, •iowever, substantial exploitation will require Drior determination of the project's effect Dn the tidal regime of the waterway involved. Dther necessary oceanographic work involves study of the tidal currents throughout the Abater column and the nature and movement :>f deposited and waterborne sediments. 'Civil engineering features, relatively well idvanced at this time, thanks to the experience with the Ranee Development, the Dutch Delta Plan, and the Bay of Fundy studies, will benefit immensely from the North Sea oil and natural gas exploration and production.) The design, efficiency, and cost of generating equipment can also be improved, although much progress has been achieved with the bulb and straight-flow turbines. Considerable research on the pneumatic form of storage may well return appreciable economic benefits, as will work on the merits and demerits of a hydrogen-electricity energy source. Our modern civilization is based on energy and, to a greater extent each year, on electric powei. It is all too often forgotten that most sources of energy and electric power rely on fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) and on uranium -- that is, on fuels which are depleted with use. When we consume them, we are dipping into our savings account provided by a beneficent Creator to serve the world for as long as it may exist. Evidence of approaching exhaustion of these depletable fuels is accumulating. Costs are increasing. Fortunately, there are a few sources of energy which are essentially income-type fuels - interest, as it were, on our inheritance. Of these sources — water power, geothermal power, ocean thermal power, solar power, and wind power -- the tides are among the most accessible to the hand of man, with generation accurately predictable for decades. THIRD QUARTER- PHASES OF THE MOON 1 Midnight TIDAL CYCLE U. S. Army Corps of Engineers F. L. Lawton is a Canadian engineer who has specialized in applications of tidal power. For further reading in this field: Lawton, F. L., "Tidal Power in the-Bay of Fundy," Tidal Power, ed. by T. J. Gray and O. K. Gashus, Plenum, New York, 1972; Lawton, F. L., "Economics of Tidal Power," Tidal Power, ed. by T. J. Gray and O. K. Gashus, Plenum, New York, 1972; Vantroys, L., "Interferences with Tidal Regimes Caused by the Operation of a Tidal Power Plant," Les Usines Matemotrices Francaises, 1967. 37 Current from the Current Harris B.Stewart, Jr. Over the years, many persons, noticing the swift movement of the Florida Current portion of the Gulf Stream system off southeast Florida, have speculated on its potential as a source of useable energy. As long as there seemed to be adequate reserves of fossil fuels to supply our landside power plants, there was little reason to move beyond speculation. Then came the 1970's -- the environmental movement, the fuel crisis — and the idea of a fuel-free and non-polluting energy source suddenly seemed more attractive. In 1973, William von Arx of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and two researchers — Dr. John Apel and the author - from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories in Miami began to examine the Florida Current as a potential source of additional power for rapidly growing south Florida. They were fortunate in that Walter Duing of the University of Miami's Rosen tiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science had just completed analyzing the largest series of data ever obtained from the Florida Current off Miami. For the first time, there was solid information on the temporal and spatial variations of the Florida Current. Using Duing's data, von Arx and his colleagues calculated that if they could trap as little as 4 percent of the flow, they could extract somewhere between 1000 and 2000 megawatts. Since this was roughly comparable to the power generated by the local nuclear power plant, the idea seemed worth pursuing. The three wrote up the idea and submitted it to the spring 1973 meeting of the American Geophysical Union. Although the paper came in too late to make the abstracts volume, the newspapers picked up the concept calling it "underwater windmills," and the Miami labs of NOAA were inundated with requests for more data. Unfortunately, the two of us in Miami were primarily oceanographers and incapable of evaluating the engineering and economic feasibility of capturing energy from the Florida Current. But we knew the sort of people we would need to do the evaluation that was required: ocean engineers, heavy marine equipment specialists, turbine design engineers, corrosion and fouling experts, energy economists, an oceanographer or two, and several others to round out the team. Somehow word of our plans got into the press, and John D. Mac Arthur of Chicago and Lake Park, Florida, read about it. The concept of a fuel-free and non-polluting source of energy was attractive to him, and he came down to Miami to talk with us. In this way the idea of the MacArthur Workshop was born. Workshop participants met for three days at the end of February, 1974. Walter Duing brought his basic data on the Florida Current, Toby Muir from the Florida Power and Light Company had the data on the long-term requirements for south Florida, and William Shoupp and Edward Somers brought their combined knowledge of turbine engineering from Westinghouse. Dugan Johnson came from Allis Chalmers; Perry Pepper, a propeller specialist, from Edo Corporation; Herman 38 0 Km 60 780- 84CM Hean-flow conditions in the Florida Straits off Miami, iveraged over one diurnal tidal cycle. NWF profile ndicates northward currents during June 14-15, 1971. iWF profile indicates southward-flowing water (shaded) in June 17-18. Values on the isolines are in centimeters jer second. (W. Duing, RSMAS, University of Miami) Sheets from the Department of Ocean Engineering at the University of Rhode Island; Robert Wiegel from the Department of Civil Engineering, University of California, Berkeley; William Heronemus from the School :>f Engineering, University of Massachusetts; md Wilbur Kirk from the Francis L. LaQue Corrosion Lab of International Nickel. Others from government, industry, and the private 780 840 sector completed the group. The workshop concluded that there is a large resource available in the kinetic energy in the Florida Current portion of the Gulf Stream, roughly equivalent to that produced by twenty-five 1000-megawatt power plants. Some 2000 megawatts of power could be extracted by practical systems from that stretch of the current running conveniently close to the east coast of southern Florida. There might be reluctance to commit research and development efforts to a process yielding such modest results. However, findings arising from these efforts would be directly applicable to other processes of 39 energy extraction, such as ocean temperature gradient and oceanic wind systems. It was therefore proposed that a phased study and development program be initiated, aimed at demonstrating commercial feasibility of extracting kinetic energy from the Florida Current. The first phase, a 12-month undertaking by a 15-man team, would investigate the feasibility of proceeding with experimentation and model studies leading to a proof-of-concept demonstration facility. Areas of concentration would include: 1. The oceanography and meteorology of the target area, with emphasis on quantification of the kinetic energy resource and analysis of the local and global impact of its extraction. 2. Determination of proper mooring methods, including long-life hardware components and methods of implanting and servicing. 3. Estimation of loadings from wind waves and hurricanes and the development of devices to offset these stresses. 4. Analyses of at least five types of momentum exchange devices, from the standpoint of both economic and technical feasibility. One device discussed by the workshop was the open propeller, the original "underwater windmill." Engineering considerations dictate that its blades would have to be about 100 meters in length, a drawback given the velocity gradients found in the current (one blade tip might be in a slow-moving layer, another in a fast-moving one). The Kaplan turbine, a ducted device, would encounter similar problems. The Savonius rotor, a small version of which is used on current meters, was brought up for discussion. So, too, was the Voith Schneider-type propeller. Basically a number of vertically arranged blades attached to a large horizontal disc, the turbine has a larger inlet area and a larger mass flow, and therefore develops more horsepower than comparable devices of different design. Its shaft speed would be about two rpm in the Florida Current. The fifth device examined was the Water Low Velocity Energy Converter (WLVEC), developed by Iowa inventor G.E. Steelman. The converter is operated by parachutes attached to a continuous belt, which they pull along as they move with the current. The chutes collapse as they complete the circuit, opening again for the next trip. The concept is both simple in design and considerably cheaper than the other devices discussed. Examined also were a number of different concepts for collecting or WLVEC Overhead view Anchor Ship Working line Pulley Resting line G. E. Steelman 40 extracting the energy at the site and delivering it to the market in a desirable form and at an attractive price. Electricity or gaseous hydrogen fuel delivery systems should be looked into. At a minimum, alternating or direct current via cable, or compressed air via hose and pipeline, should be examined as energy umbilicals. Decisions should also be made whether or not to design storage sub- systems adequate to buffer against diurnal and seasonal variations. Such installations might lead to a system capable of delivering peaking power, whose value is much greater than that of base load electricity. Workshop participants recommend further that if the results of Phase I indicate the project should be carried forward, consideration should then be given to moving into an engineering design and experimentation program. The goal here should be at least one total system design from which the working drawings for a proof-of-concept power plant could proceed. The Phase II effort would include laboratory experiments, construction and testing in the ocean of scale- model subsystems, and preparation for zero order specifications and cost estimates. The Phase II effort should probably be concentrated under one program manager and should have a strong industrial flavor. The results of the second phase should CURRENT FLOW Getting nowhere fast. Ship is anchored in the Florida Current. (W. Duing, RSMAS, University of Miami) allow a sound decision to be made by potential sponsors on the actual construction and operation of a proof-of-concept plant, a prototype probably of 5- to 20-megawatt capacity. Such a plant would require two years to complete. The project probably should include participation by the utility, public or private, that will sell the delivered product. Preliminary cost estimates developed during the workshop indicate that plant construction costs and retail energy prices for a system utilizing the kinetic energy of the flowing Florida Current would, in all probability, be competitive with those projected for other energy sources in the 1980 era. In short, useful energy can be extracted from the flowing Florida Current, if the studies, design, and construction proposed by the MacArthur Workshop are each carried out successfully in sequence, the system can effectively supplement other sources to help meet the demand in those areas where relatively fast currents are found close to shore. Harris B. Stewart, Jr., is Director of the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Requests for the Proceedings of the MacArthur Workshop should be directed to his office, 15 Rickenbacker Causeway, Virginia Key, Miami, Florida 331 49. 41 Sea Structure Stephen C. Dexter The ocean is an aggressive environment in which most of the ordinary metals and alloys used in the construction industry deteriorate rapidly. Materials selection for both large marine structures and marine instrumentation systems is a difficult problem. No longer can we afford to overwhelm corrosion problems by overgenerous design and large factors of safety. We must look increasingly toward efficient engineering design to make offshore and submerged marine structures economical. Selection of materials offering the best combination of strength, corrosion resistance, and cost should be undertaken as part of the design phase of a structure. From an engineering viewpoint, the most attractive materials often are those with a high strength-to-weight ratio such as the high- strength steels, titanium alloys, and aluminum alloys. Table 1 compares some important properties and costs of these and other classes of metallic materials. There are specific problems associated with using each of them in marine applications. The high- strength steels corrode uniformly at a rate of three to fifteen thousandths of an inch per year (3-15 MPY). Moreover, if their yield strength is above about 180,000 pounds per square inch (psi), they are subject to stress corrosion cracking (SCC) — a particularly damaging form of stress-aided corrosion resulting in the propagation of sharp cracks through the structure. They must therefore be protected from the marine environment if they are to be used successfully. The medium- and high-strength aluminum alloys are competitive with steel on a strength-to-weight ratio basis. However, their low modulus of elasticity (a measure of elastic stiffness) means that they are too flexible for many large structures. In their highest strength condition, they are subject to SCC, as are the high-strength steels. Unlike the steels, they are vulnerable to pitting, crevice corrosion, and intergranular corrosion — all extremely localized forms of attack leading to perforation of the metal or loss of strength. They too must be kept from direct contact with the environment and thus are rarely found as structural members of large underwater marine installations subjected to tensile stresses. They are used frequently and successfully for topside structural applications to minimize total weight and for small instrument pressure casings, which, when deployed, will be under hydrostatic compression, sufficient to eliminate the possibility of cracking. Titanium and titanium alloys are used increasingly in condenser tubing and other items needed by the marine industry. They possess relative immunity to all forms of seawater attack at ambient temperatures (except for SCC in the very highest strength condition) an elastic modulus higher than that of the aluminum alloys, and in the heat-treatable varieties, very high strength-to-weight ratios. They are thus attractive for small, fully submersed structures in instances where either the desired lifetime is long (10 to 20 years or more) and the cost of maintaining a steel structure is prohibitive, or where corrosion of other materials would cause personnel hazards (as it would in the. case of submersibles and habitats). Their high cost and difficulty of fabrication often make them unsuitable for use in large structures. Fortunately, uniform attack, pitting, and sometimes crevice corrosion and SCC can be avoided by applying cathodic protection in conjunction with 42 Scanning electron micrograph of a corrosion pit in aluminum-magnesium-silicon alloy, widely used in marine science applications. Specimen was submerged in seawater for a week. Diameter of central pit is approximately one-thousandth of an inch. Note extensive branching, which amplifies damage. 43 TABLE 1 Class of Material Modulus of Elasticity (lb/in2 x 106) Yield Strength* (lb/in2 x 10 3) Strength-to-Weight Ratiot /yield strength \ Base Costtt ($/lb) \density in seawater f High-strength titanium alloys 16.5 120-155 1260 5-10 High-strength steels 29 110 -340 1200 High-strength aluminum alloys 10.4 15 -78 1200 .50 -.60 Age-hardening stainless steels 28.5 110 -185 762 1.25 -2.00 Unalloyed titanium 15 25 - 85 675 4-6 Nickel-based superalloys 29 -30 50 - 175 675 3-12 Medium-strength steels 30 60 -140 567 Plain carbon and low-alloy steels 30 40 - 80 325 -.10 Cupro-nickel alloys 18 -22 16 -80 275 1.00 - 1.50 300 series stainless steels 28 35 -45 175 .50 - 1.25 * Numbers indicate the maximum range attainable for this class of materials. t Figures are based on the highest yield strength of the range shown, ft Costs, quoted for large quantities, were in effect in June 1972. coatings systems. Cathodic protection, using either an auxiliary power supply or sacrificial anodes, is the process by which one reverses the polarity of the naturally flowing electrochemical corrosion (electrolysis) current, thereby preventing corrosion of the structure. Adequate protection of a given structure is not always possible. For instance, cathodic protection cannot be used to prevent ultra-high-strength steels from cracking, because the hydrogen that this process generates at the steel surface is itself damaging to the structure. The aircraft industry successfully uses metallic coatings to keep moisture away from high-strength steel components, but in seawater these coatings would have to be maintained in near-perfect condition. The practical impossibility of doing this virtually eliminates the ultra-high- strength steels from consideration for large structures that are partially or wholly immersed in seawater. The medium-strength, low-alloy and plain carbon steels, which are generally not subject to SCC in seawater, have less stringent protection requirements. Even so, the yearly cost of controlling uniform corrosion by maintaining coatings and cathodic protection systems cannot be overlooked. A great number of exotic materials having increased resistance to corrosion are available, but most of them are unsuitable for building large structures. The common stainless steels with more than 12 percent chromium do not rust uniformly in seawater, as does plain carbon steel. However, they undergo severe pitting and crevice corrosion (localized rates of attack as high as 5 inches per year with rapid perforation of the metal have been reported). If welded improperly, these materials may also be damaged in the heat-affected zone of the weldment by a form of intergranular corrosion sometimes known as weld decay. These problems plus higher cost (see Table) generally limit the use of the standard stainless steels to topside hardware or, in fully submersed applications, to easily replaceable parts and short exposure (roughly six months or less), or to instances where cathodic protection can be applied. The nickel-based "super alloys" are finding an ever increasing market for critical applications where very low corrosion rates are desired. The nickel- chromium-high molybdenum alloys are particularly resistant to all types of attack in seawater (except for intergranular attack in the heat-affected zone of weldments) over periods exceeding 25 years, even at elevated temperatures. However, their low strength- to-weight ratios and high cost limit their use to critical applications where no corrosion can be tolerated. All of these materials, from plain carbon steel to titanium alloys, have a common problem when used in warm coastal waters — biofouling. The attachment of marine fouling organisms can have various effects. If not controlled, it can add substantially to the weight of floating or semi- submersible structures, necessitating more costly and less efficient construction. On the other hand, marine fouling can slightly reduce the corrosion rate of plain carbon steel by creating a barrier between the seawater and the structure. Avoiding 44 biofouling requires the added expense of applying and maintaining a toxic coatings system. The only metallic alloys available that possess a natural toxicity to marine fouling organisms are the high- copper alloys and especially the series of cupronickel alloys with more than 70 percent copper. These alloys corrode uniformly at rates of 0.8 to 1.5 MPY, continually releasing toxic Cu ions into the water surrounding the structure. They are initially more expensive than carbon steel, but if the above rate of corrosion can be tolerated, they are maintenance- free (i.e., no coatings system or cathodic protection is needed) over the entire design lifetime. The 90-10 cupronickel alloy has recently been used successfully for the hull of a 90-foot shrimp boat. Our dependence on toxic materials for fouling control may decrease in the future, however, if the interdisciplinary research efforts now under way are successful. Investigators at several laboratories, including the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, are trying to understand why the surface energy of structural materials (analogous to the surface tension of a liquid) changes when they are exposed to seawater, and why these changes sometimes reduce the tendency of marine microorganisms to attach to the surfaces. As we begin to understand these processes, we may be able to use them to control at least some types of marine fouling by purposely altering the surface energy of a structure rather than by using toxic agents. The problem of choosing the best material from which to build marine structures, then, is one of evaluating a series of trade-offs. In each case it must be decided which is more important: initially high materials cost or subsequent high maintenance costs. In general, as one opts for materials with increased corrosion resistance, one finds higher cost, lower strength-to-weight ratio, decreased ease of fabrication, and decreased availability. For these reasons, the medium strength, low alloy, and plain carbon steels are usually chosen for large marine structures. The maintenance requirements of such structures under the difficult conditions imposed by the marine environment will add to the cost of harnessing the reservoirs of energy stored in and under the world's oceans. Stephen C. Dexter is an Assistant Scientist in the Institution's Department of Ocean Engineering. Jan Hahn 45 Nuclear Powe Stations Michael W. Golay The concept of floating nuclear power stations in the ocean has been receiving enewed attention of late. A commercial /endor has come on the scene offering to Dirild and site barge-mounted, pressurized Abater reactor (PWR) power stations in the >ea. What for more than a decade had been i speculative design concept has suddenly oeen transformed into a possibly imminent bnvironmental, social, legal, and economic •eality -- complete with promise and problems. There are several strong advantages to )ffshore-sited power station concepts, not ill of which are embodied in any single lesign. Among them: Proximity to load centers. About half of he United States electrical demand load is located within 300 miles of the shorelines of I he two oceans and the Gulf of Mexico, loughly 42 percent of the national total is :oncentrated along the Atlantic and Gulf ;oasts, an important point given the fact that he continental shelves off these coasts ypically extend for tens of miles out to sea. )n the West Coast, the ocean depth increases apidly with offshore distance, and very few lesirable power station sites exist. Automatic exclusion zone. Because the pace between a station and the shoreline is isually lightly populated, a large exclusion rea is automatically incorporated into any >ffshore siting scheme. The distance between land-based station and its site boundary is ypically a few hundred yards, while the eparation distance for an offshore station is m the order of three miles. This tends to educe the potential hazard to the public rom high-level, airborne, radioactive releases n the unlikely event of a disastrous accident nvolving loss of reactor coolant. Reduced environmental impacts. The >rincipal environmental impacts of electric >ower production related to a specific power tation are those of waste heat emissions, outine radioactive releases, nuclear fuel "rojan nuclear power plant in Washington. Sites on land are ncreasingly hard to come by. (EPA-Documerica, Gene Daniels) transportation, power transmission, and scenic disruption. The capacity of ocean areas to assimilate heat and wastes near the station is typically greater than that of inland water bodies. In most cases, it will greatly reduce the hazards to the local aquatic ecosystem arising from power station operation. - Any offshore power station probably would use a once-through cooling system in which water would be drawn from the ocean, pumped through the condenser, and returned to the ocean. Environmental protection groups have proposed that cooling towers be used instead. However, the towers cost about $20 million more per 1000 megawatts of electricity (MWe) than once-through cooling and require an installation covering more than ten acres. They are not apt to be used unless a far more compelling case can be made that serious environmental damage is likely to result from use of once-through cooling. The system, of course, cannot be used indiscriminately: the station must not be sited near important spawning or feeding areas; water intake and hot-water discharge structures must be designed to avoid fish entrainment and minimize local temperature changes. - Waterborne radioactive releases from modern nuclear power stations are negligible when compared to other sources of radiation exposure (e.g., natural background, medical radiation procedures, airline flights, color TV's, microwave ovens, etc.). Human exposure to these releases would be further reduced by the assimilative capacity of the ocean. - An exceptional advantage to offshore siting involves human protection from routine airborne radioactive releases. The ocean exclusion zone will provide an extra unpopulated expanse over which dispersion of the radioactive plume can occur. - Fuel transportation would occur via barge rather than truck or rail car, and offshore siting offers little advantage or disadvantage in this area. - Aesthetic problems involving land-based power stations usually arise from objections 47 to the appearance of the station structures, and to the scenic disruption associated with the required transmission lines. In the case of offshore siting, the transmission lines to shore would be laid out of sight on the ocean floor and the proximity of such stations to load centers offers the promise that fewer and shorter overland transmission lines would be required than with land-based power generation. A recent study indicates that to a viewer on the beach the apparent size of its 2300 MWe complex cited three miles offshore would be similar to that of a large passenger liner. Abundance of offshore sites. Many potential offshore power station sites are available, while equivalent land-based sites are becoming scarce — so scarce that it is common practice today in the major load- center areas to cluster several generating units Offshore nuclear power systems must be designed to avoid destruction of marine life. (EPA-Documerica, James H. Pickerell) on a single site. Clusters can be found at the Millstone Site of Northeast Utilities on Long Island Sound, the Indian Point Site on Consolidated Edison on the Hudson River, and the Dresden Site of Commonwealth Edison in Central Illinois. Assembly line production. Nuclear power is the least expensive means of electrical energy generation in practically every part of the country today. In spite of this, only about 60 percent of all orders placed for new generating capacity are for nuclear power stations. The major impediments are the high capital costs of a nuclear power station (currently about $400-$700/kWe) and the scheduling uncertainty associated with obtaining an operating license from the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission. The interest charges for completed 1000 MWe station are approximately $100,000 per day. Thus, the costs of licensing delays at the end of construction can be significant; it is fear of such costs which has been a primary motivation for early accommodation between utilities and environmental protection intervenor groups. An advantage of many offshore siting concepts is that some long-term reductions in capital costs and in licensing delays may be possible due to the assembly-line fabrication of such plants. The associated standardization of designs and mechanization of many construction steps offer the expectation of increased construction speed and of a more rapid licensing review of the standardized portions of the plant. The net result would be less expensive power stations and — depending upon the attitudes of the various state utility commissions -- lower electric bills to consumers. Seismic protection. One of the important sets of hazards which must be anticipated in the design of a land-based station is that of earthquake-initiated accidents, the most severe of which would be a loss-of-cooling accident. Floating stations are effectively insulated from most earthquake hazards and are thus free from the costs and design 48 ;onstraints associated with seismic accident ?rotection systems. A variety of offshore power station :oncepts have been proposed, some without Breakwaters — structures designed to provide protection from waves, wind, and ;ollisions with seagoing vessels. It seems ikely that any station susceptible to such lazards would be required to have a protecting breakwater in order to obtain )ublic acceptance and the approval of the Carious state and federal regulatory agencies :oncerned. The only type of offshore power plant :urrently for sale is the floating, barge - nounted station offered by Offshore }ower Systems, a company combining the eactor technology of Westinghouse Electric oorp. and the shipbuilding ability of "enneco, Inc. (via the Newport News Jhipbuilding Dry Dock Co.). The firm is offering to build standardized 1150-MWe mits in a new shipyard to be constructed tear Jacksonville, Florida. The units vould be towed to the power station ite, at which a protective breakwater would ^ave been prepared. The barge would be loated into place and anchored. Single-site omplexes are envisioned, enclosing one ir — more commonly -- two barges within a ingle breakwater. Once the barges are in lace, the breakwater construction would be ompleted (see Figure 1); small canals would I '6 left open on the sides to accommodate the low of material, personnel, and tides. Yansmission connections would then be made, uclear fuel loaded, start-up tests performed, nd full-power operation initiated. Each barge displaces 155,000 tons and .raws 31 feet. It is 209 feet high, 400 feet Dng, and 37 8 feet wide; it contains all of the sual components of a land-based power tation, including a containment building and he standard safety systems. Estimated cost f the barge unit alone is approximately 350 million. A minimum depth of 45 feet is required n the 90-acre lagoon within the breakwater in order to assure adequate draft over the life of the barge, and a maximum site depth of 71 feet is imposed by increasing breakwater costs. The breakwater would be constructed of a core of concrete caissons, and covered with momentum-absorbing "dolos," which come in a variety of sizes. The structure is designed to withstand collisions with the largest ocean vessels. It is high enough to deflect the largest wave expected at the site within a 100-year interval. As of this writing, Offshore Power Systems has sales commitments of varying degrees of finality for eight stations. The barge construction yard is expected to cost about $210 million, and the company has stated that firm orders for six to eight units are required to justify the initial investment. Thus, it would appear that the threshold sales commitment will be obtained soon. There are, of course, other ways of locating a nuclear power plant offshore. One is to place the plant on a large, permanent artificial island. In its simplest form the island would be constructed in a landfill operation. Another related design calls for concrete piles, driven to bedrock and surmounted by a reinforced concrete platform. Yet another would have the power station built on the ocean floor inside a concrete and rubble cofferdam, which would hold back the ocean and serve as a collision shield and breakwater. Because of the high cost of the dam or island, these proposals would be most attractive in shallow waters. In each case the power station would be virtually identical to that built on land. The final "island" concept is a variation on the Offshore Power Systems theme in which the barge -mounted station would be floated into place within a breakwater and sunk -- but not submerged — in shallow water. An advantage of all of these approaches is that the station is not vulnerable to sinking or flooding due to a hull rupture. Also, in the very unlikely event of a core melt-down, there would be no direct path for fission products contained in the core to enter the ocean. Obviously, 49 mi FIGURE 1. Aerial view of a typical 2300-MWe Offshore Power Systems generating station, consisting of two barge-mounted generating units floating in a 90-acre lagoon. Note breakwater design with curved section facing seaward. (Westinghouse-Tenneco) in most of the "island" concepts, the offshore siting advantages of assembly-line fabrication, and seismic protection would be lost. Stations could also be built in the form of a submersible designed to rest on the ocean floor at least 200 feet below the surface - safe from storms and surface traffic. The hazards here would be those of collisions with submarines and failure of the vessel wall. The most suitable area for this concept is on the U.S. West Coast, where deep-water sites near shore are common. A unique attraction of the concept is the added safeguard provided by hydrostatic pressure acting against the submersible's hull: under these conditions, internal pressures generated by an accident would have to be exceptionally high to overload the containment. In addition the cost of a breakwater could be avoided. There are several legal, financial, and safety concerns which could hinder or prohibit the advent of offshore power station siting. They are being faced for the first time in the licensing process involving Atlantic Generating Stations I and II -- the Offshore Power Systems units being purchased by the Public Service Electric and Gas Co. in New Jersey. The stations could easily be sited further than three miles offshore. However, in order to simplify the legal questions which must be treated, it was decided to place them within U.S. territorial waters. Even so, there are a number of rather novel legal problems 50 ^^^HJ^d • vhich must be resolved. Some of the Dotentially interested agencies are the U.S. 3oast Guard, Atomic Energy Commission, Environmental Protection Agency, Federal -'ower Commission, and several offices of the State of New Jersey. Precedents will be set n this case regarding jurisdictions of the :oncerned agencies, legal definitions (e.g., is :he station a ship or a barge?), environmental Drotection criteria, and safety regulations - imong other matters. The details of these decisions will be important in determining che attractiveness of offshore siting to investors, and its acceptability to the public. They will also determine the degree to which anticipated cost savings from speedy licensing and shipyard fabrication will be realized. Estimated costs for the first- generation Offshore Power Systems stations are somewhat above those of comparable land-based units, and with so many substantial matters yet to be settled, optimistic financial forecasts must be treated skeptically. As for reactor safety, the primary concern involving the floating design has to do with propagation of fission products in the ocean if loss of coolant were to result in a core melt-down. Should the very improbable happen, the molten mass of reactor material could conceivably -- but not certainly -- melt through the bottom of the barge and come into contact with the ocean water. The Offshore Power Systems design does not incorporate a "core-catcher" (a system capable of containing and cooling the mass of molten reactor material in a subcritical configuration) below the reactor to deal with such an eventuality. A number of "core-catcher" designs have been proposed, but none has been tested fully — since this would require a core melt-down. (Here as elsewhere in reactor safety technology, the cost and hazard of the tests required to settle the question finally are prohibitively great.) The choices remain: whether to invest available resources in a very reliable emergency core cooling system, which will aim to insure that a "core-catcher" is not needed; or whether to proceed with a "core-catcher" as a backup system, even though its adequacy and necessity may be incompletely demonstrated. Independent studies indicate that the likelihood of a catastrophic accident following a massive failure of an emergency core cooling system is very low, less than one in one million per reactor year. This would tend to favor the argument against the need for the "core-catcher." This point of view is buttressed by society's tolerance of many activities where the probability of disaster, though low, could be minimized even further. Commercial aircraft fly without parachutes for their passengers, let alone adequate 51 emergency exits or fire-resistant clothing for use in crash-landings. Towns and villages are sited directly below high dams. High-rise buildings are constructed without exterior fire escapes or sprinkler systems. An important item in this debate is the estimation of what will happen should fission products be released at sea. As in a loss-of- coolant accident on land, the greatest immediate hazard to humans stems from the passage of the radioactive plume of steam and fission products. The ocean exclusion zone around the offshore plant would provide an extra degree of safety through additional plume dispersion prior to human exposure, as would the "scrubbing" and condensation of volatile fission products as they bubbled upward through the water. However, this last would create a new hazard — the introduction of solid and liquid fission products into the seawater, and into marine food chains. The magnitude of this hazard has not yet been completely analyzed, though it would appear initially to be much smaller than those imposed by passage of the radioactive plume. Michael W. Golay is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Nuclear Engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He has research interest in the environmental and safety problems of electric power production, and for the last two years has held the A. D. Little Professorship in Environmental Sciences and Engineering. For further reading in this field: "Considerations Affecting Steam Power Plant Site Selection," Report to the President, Office of Science and Technology, U. S. Government Printing Office, 1968; Ducsik, Dennis W., ed., Power Pollution and Public Policy, M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, 1970; "Floating Nuclear Power Plants for Offshore Siting," Westinghouse Engineering, Westinghouse Electric, 1972. IS Environmental instrument tower installed near site proposed for nuclear plant by Public Service Electric and Gas Co. of New Jersey. Tower measures wind, currents, tides, and waves as part of data acquisition program required by licensing process. (EG&G) 52 MBL WHOI LIBRARY hlH IfllA (3 Alvin maneuvers into position to be hoisted aboard Knorr. Carrying Alvin and towing Lulu (the submersible' s tender), Knorr left Woods Hole early in June bound for the Azores. There Alvin transferred to Lulu and, after a short passage to the dive site, joined two French submarines in exploring the rift valley of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. (Frank Medeiros) •'X- . •flt'. Published by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Woods Hole, Massachusetts CHARLES F. ADAMS Chairman, Board of Trustees PAULM. FYE President and Director Associates of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution HOMER H. EWING, Honorary Chairman TOWNSEND HORNOR, President JOSEPH V. McKEE, JR., Vice President L. HOYT WATSON, Executive Secretary Library of Congress Catalogue Card No. 59-34518 EDITOR: William H. MacLeish ASSISTANT: Christina Robinson PUBLISHING CONSULTANT: Geno Ballotti