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CONTENTS Section Title Introduction 1 Acknowledgments 1 1 Summary 3 Seasonal cycles 4 Interpretation 6 Pacific 6 Interpretation 8 Atlantic 10 Interpretation 11 2 Data products 19 2.1 Coastal temperatures 21 2.2 Chesapeake Bay streamflow 23 2.3 Sea surface temperature anomalies , . 24 2.4 Eastern North Pacific Transition Zone 26 2.5 Copepoda, net phytoplankton, and T-S-Copepod relationships in the Middle Atlantic Bight 28 3 Atmospheric climatology and its effect on sea surface temperature - 1975. by Robert R. Dickson and Jerome Namias 89 4 Climatic change in the Pacific Ocean - An update through 1975. by James H. Johnson, Douglas R. McLain, and Craig S. Nelson 103 5 Anomalies of coastal sea surface temperatures along the west coast of North America. by Douglas R. McLain 127 6 Coastalupwellingoff western North America, 1975. by Andrew Bakun 141 7 Oceanic conditions between the Hawaiian Islands and the U.S. West Coast as monitored by ships of opportunity - 1975. by J.F.T. Saur 151 8 The tuna fishery in the eastern tropical Pacific and its relationship to sea surface temper- atures during 1975. by Forrest R. Miller 169 9 Equatorial Pacific anomalies and El Nino, by Willaim H. Quinn 179 10 Sunspot activity and oceanic conditions in the northern North Pacific Ocean, by Felix Favorite and W. James Ingraham, Jr 191 11 A single-layer hydrodynamical-numerical model of the eastern Bering Sea shelf, by James R. Hastings 197 12 Variations in the Shelf Water front off the Atlantic coast between Cape Remain and Georges Bank in 1975. byJohnT. Gunn 213 13 Wind-driven tremsport in 1975, Atlantic Coast and Gulf of Mexico, by John T. Gunn . . . 241 14 Spring and autumn bottom-water temperatures in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank, 1968-75. by Clarence W. Davis 229 15 Initiation of monthly temperature transects across the northern Gulf of Maine, by J. Lockwood Chamberlin, John J. Kosmark, and Steven K. Cook 257 16 Temperature structure on the continental shelf and slope south of New England during 1975. by J. Lockwood Chamberlin 271 17 Passage of anticyclonic Gulf Stream eddies through deepwater dumpsite 106 during 1974 and 1975. by James J. Bisagni 293 18 Surface water drift south of Cape Lookout, North Carolina, by C. A. Barans and W. A. Roumillat 299 19 The distribution and abundance, growth, and mortality of Georges Bank-Nantucket Shoals herring larvae during the 1975-76 winter period, by R. Gregory Lough 309 20 Impact of autumn-winter swarming of a siphonophore ("Lipo") on fishing in coastal waters of New England, by Carolyn A. Rogers 333 ni Ocean Variability: Effects on U.S. Marine Fishery Resources - 1975 JULIEN R. GOULET, JR. and ELIZABETH D. HAYNES, EDITORS^ ABSTRACT Ocean variability, and its effects on U.S. marine flshery resources in 1975, is summarized. Also in- cluded is a collection of data products and contributed papers focusing on the impacts on fisheries resources of ocean variability. The emphasis is on large scale, both in time and space, environmental processes, the variations of index properties, and the consequent modulations of fisheries responses. INTRODUCTION Ocean Variability: Effects on U.S. Marine Fishery Resources - 1975 is the second report in an evolving series aimed at providing decision makers and resource managers with a synopsis of the marine environment and its potential influence on living marine resources. The first report was titled The Environment of the United States Living Marine Resources - 1974, and was released only as a review copy. Oceanographers, meteorologists, and resource biologists both inside and outside of the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) have con- tributed to this report. It was produced by the Marine Resources Monitoring, Assessment, and Prediction (MARMAP) program of the NMFS. The MARMAP program is an NMFS national program providing information needed for management and allocation of the nation's marine fisheries resources. The program encompasses the collection and analysis of data to provide information on the abundance, com- position, location, and condition of the commercial and recreational marine fisheries resources of the United States. It includes a consideration of the environment of those resources, not in the narrow sense of the habitat of particular species, but in the broader sense of the in- fluence of ocean processes and changes in ocean proper- ties on living marine resources. Changes in physical and chemical properties of the ocean (currents, temperatures, nutrients, etc.), and the associated modulation of biological processes, directly or indirectly affect not only long-term yields and annual abundances of fish stocks, but also their distribution and availability. Fishery oceanography activities under MARMAP include the analysis of physical, chemical, and biological oceanographic data collected during MARMAP and other NMFS surveys and from oceano- graphic and meteorological operational and research ac- tivities of other agencies. 'Fisheries Assessment Division, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, Washington, DC 20235. It is hoped that this report will contribute to the under- standing necessary for optimal development, allocation, management, and control of our fisheries resources. As a communications medium it seeks to provide infor- mation in a usable manner to those involved in fisheries problems. In Section 1, Goulet presented an overview of aspects of the environment of the living marine resources of the United States in 1975. It was based on the analyses presented in the several contributions to this volume. This section also includes an interpretation of some potential effects of the environment on marine fisheries resources. This interpretation is to be considered just that — not a statement of fact nor of policy, but merely a presentation of interesting possibilities. Section 2 is a compendium of data products. The pre- sent selection was based on product availability. In future reports, we hope to select data products on a more logical basis — a consideration of their significance to the fisheries environment and their repeatability. The remaining sections are contributions on various aspects of the environment of the United States living marine resources. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We thank, in addition to the many contributors: R. Muirhead of the U.S. National Ocean Survey for provid- ing tide station temperature data (Section 2.1), D. McLain of the Pacific Environmental Group, NMFS, for providing the Atlantic, Pacific, and Bering Sea surface temperature charts (Section 2.3); R. J. Lynn and R. M. Laurs, Southwest Fisheries Center, NMFS, for provid- ing the Pacific salinity transects (Section 2.4); and D. Smith of the MARMAP Field Group, NMFS, for prepar- ing the report on temperature-salinity-copepod relation- ships (Section 2.5). We also thank the U.S. Geological Survey for the Chesapeake Bay streamflow information (Section 2.2). Section 1 SUMMARY Julien R. Goulet, Jr.^ A first approach to understanding the effects of ocean variability on U.S. marine fishery resources can he made by considering the broad-scale conditions of the atmosphere, for it is the atmosphere that provides the most important boundary of the oceans. The atmospheric circulation must be considered in connection with the climatology of the oceans, for the atmosphere has no "memory." It must depend on the oceans, in particular the broad expanse of the Pacific Ocean, to provide the "flywheel" or "memory" which controls the persistence of phenomena. The salient feature of the atmospheric circulation in 1975 was the persistence of strong westerly winds over the Northern Hemisphere (Dickson and Namias, Section 3). This "high-index" circulation, or increased strength of the westerlies, has persisted since 1971, and is chiefly a feature of the oceanic areas. However, there was a basic difference in the conditions of this increased westerly circulation between 1975 and the previous four years. In 1974, the increased westerlies were caused by a tandem intensification of the subtropical high pressure cells and the subpolar low pressure cells over both oceans. In 1975 there was an intensification and a northward movement of the high pressure cells, but the low pressure anomaly became a single intense polar low. The anomalies of the height of the 700 mb pressure surface changed radically from 1974 to 1975. The 1974 position of the arctic front, the edge of the cold polar air mass, was typical of the previous four years. In contrast, the 1975 front appeared unstable, the zero anomaly contour wandering with no clear pattern instead of defining a cold polar air mass as with the high pressure anomaly of 1974 (Fig. 1.1). The sea surface temperatures in the Pacific associated with these climatological regimes were similar in 1974 and 1975. A region of abnormally cold water underlay the area of strongest •'^Fisheries Assessment Division, National Marine Fisheries Service, Washington, DC 20235. T Section 1 westerlies in the Pacific Ocean, while a region of abnormally warm water underlay the subtropical high pressure system. In 1975 the cold-water band shifted to the northeast and the anomaly of temperature along the Canadian coast reached -1.5C. The warm- water pool also shifted to the northeast and slightly increased in intensity, but decreased in areal extent. The gradients of temperature in the Transition Zone (approximately two-thirds of the distance from Hawaii to California; Saur, Section 7) are therefore much reduced on an annual average. SEASONAL CYCLES To understand the environmental conditions influencing the U.S. marine fishery resources, we must look at the seasonal cycle of oceanographic conditions existing in the Atlantic and Pacific, and at the climatological conditions existing over these oceans and the North American continent (Figs. 1.2 and 1.3). During winter 1974 (December 1973-February 1974), the 700 mb pressure anomalies were typical of the increased westerly circulation that has persisted since 1971. The subpolar lows and the subtropical highs were anomalously intense and there was a slight low trough over the North American continent. The entire western Atlantic was anomalously warm and there was a large pool of anomalously warm water underlying the Pacific high pressure system, while the Pacific coast was anomalously cold. In spring 1974, the high-index circulation continued, but the low pressure systems had intensified and broadened to form one continuous band across the northern reaches of the continent. The high pressure anomalies decreased in intensity, while the sea surface temperatures were still anomalously warm in the western Atlantic. The warm pcol in the Pacific remained essentially unchanged. , The pressure anomaly patterns for summer 1974 presented some puzzling features. While the anomalies did not dominate the annual average, the anomalous features had all but disappeared. The subtropical highs and the subpolar lows were near the long- term mean. The polar air mass was anomalously high and had extended southward, and the sea surface temperature showed some warm anomalies in the Bering Sea and an eastward extension of the warm Pacific pool. The Atlantic remained essentially unchanged from the previous season. In fall 1974, the pressure anomalies did not indicate high-index conditions. The high pressure anomalies were found far north, while the lew pressure anomalies did not exist except for a cell over the northeast portion of the continent. There was a strong Section 1 high pressure cell over the northwest coast of the United States. In response to these conditions, the warm anomalies of sea surface temperature penetrated northwest into the Gulf of Alaska and warmed the northwestern coast of the United States. Cold anomalies extended southeastward from the northwest Pacific toward California. High-index circulation conditions returned in winter 1975, but with strong differences from the winter of 1974. The Atlantic high pressure cell was in approximately the same position as in the previous winter, tut extended significantly northwestward over the continent. The Pacific high pressure cell intensified in comparison to 1 97U and moved significantly northwestward. The subpolar lows intensified and formed a band across the northern limits of the continent. The western center of the subpolar low was over the Bering Sea, whereas in 1974 it was over the Gulf of Alaska. The trough centered on the continent had retrograded and lay ever the Rockies in 1975, whereas in 1974 it lay over the Mississippi valley. The sea surface temperature anomalies were cold throughout most of the western Atlantic with a remnant pool of warm anomaly water lying close to the coast. In the Pacific, the warm pool had been much reduced and the cold anomaly water extended south from the Gulf of Alaska as well as lying in an unbroken band along the coast. There were seme interesting developments in spring 1975. The continental trough remained over the Rockies and had intensified. The subtropical high pressure cell in the Atlantic was no longer anomalous, and there was a strong high pressure anomaly over the north central portion of the continent. The subpolar lows were much reduced, or shifted beyond the limits of the maps in Figure 1.2 which cover only the American sector of the Northern Hemisphere. The subtropical high pressure cell in the Pacific remained in the southern Gulf of Alaska, but its center shifted eastward towards the American continent. The sea surface temperatures were cold throughout the western Atlantic except for the Gulf ef Mexico and small patches off the U.S. coast. The warm anomaly pool in the Pacific shifted northward to lie closer to the center of the high pressure anomaly. It also was reduced in size, and cool anomalies were found in a broad band surrounding this warm pocl. The subpolar low pressure anomaly regrouped, in summer 1975, into a single intense anomaly north of the center of the American continent. The high pressure cell that overlay the north central portion of the continent in the previous season had shifted eastward, and there was a low pressure anomaly to the east of that. The Pacific had a very small high pressure anomaly lying quite close to the continent. The sea surface temperatures were cold throughout the western Atlantic except for a small patch in the New York Bight. The Pacific had a much reduced pool of warm Section 1 aromaly water, and generally was much cooler than in summer 1974. In fall 1975 there was a return to high-index circulation conditions with a single subpolar low. The subtropical high pressure systems lay in approximately the same positions as during the previous winter. The trough of low pressure remained over the Rockies. The Atlantic had some warm sea surface temperature anomalies extending east and northeast from the Middle Atlantic Bight. The Pacific's pool of warm anomaly water was even more reduced than in the previous season, and the winter of 1 S76 was approached with a far smaller supply of warm Pacific surface water than had existed in the previous year (Saur, Section 7) . lBi§I£E§i§.iion Let us examine some possible consequences of these atmospheric and oceanic conditions. While 700 mb heights are not important for steering individual storms, it is probable that the total collection of storm tracks is influenced by mean atmospheric conditions. The Pacific summer storms of 1974 tracked south, of their normal position and reached the American continent in the vicinity of Washington and Oregon. 2 Likewise, in fall 1974, storms did not penetrate into the Gulf of Alaska. Instead of tracking southward, they backed and tracked into the Bering Sea. These backing conditions continued into winter 1975. Possibly the winter storms' tracking into the polar regions instead of over the continent produced the instabilities of the arctic front that were mirrored in the annual average (Fig. 1.1). These instabilities are also reflected in the spring and summer conditions of 1975 (Fig. 1.2), and we can consider that the polar front went through a regrouping in 1975. Whether it will, in 1976, return to the conditions that existed since 1971 cr to conditions that prevailed prior to that remains to be seen. PACIFIC The whole eastern North Pacific was colder in 1975 than in 1974. The cold anomalies of sea surface temperature extended farther offshore and farther south from the Gulf of Alaska. The central patch of warm anomaly water was much reduced in area compared to 1974. In spring and summer 1975 the warm anomaly water lay northeastward of its position during the previous year. Whereas 1974 ended with a large pool of anomalously warm water occupying '^Mariners Weather Log, smooth log. North Pacific weather, vols. 19 and 20 (1975, 1976). Section 1 the central portions of the eastern North Pacific and extending to the Canadian coast ard into the northern Gulf of Alaska, 1975 ended with a much diminished pool of anomalously warm water and broad expanses of anomalously cold water (Fig. 1.3). Several data products in Section 2 portray aspects of the Pacific Ocean environment. Section 2.1 comprises time vs. distance contours of coastal temperatures along the U.S. west coast and south coast of Alaska. Section 2.3 contains monthly sea surface temperature anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska and in the eastern North Pacific. Section 2.4 depicts vertical transects of salinity along 13"'W30' in June of 1972, 1973, 1974, and 1975. The bulletin, lishin^ Information, published monthly by the Southwest Fisheries Center, NMFS, La Jolla, CA 92038, presents surface atmospheric pressure, surface wind, sea surface temperature, its anomaly, and its year to year change, as well as temperature transects across the Transition Zone between the California Current water and the Eastern North Pacific water. Several contributors discussed various aspects of the Pacific Ocean environment during 1975 in Sections 4 through 11. Johnson, McLain, and Nelson (Section 4), in an update to their contribution in the first volume of this series (Johnson, et al . 1976), discussed the Pacific climatology as indicated by sea surface temperature at selected locations. The annual average anomalies of sea surface temperature were dominated by the summer anomalies. The data presented by Dickson and Namias (Section 3) show that the annual average 700 mb height anomalies are dominated by the winter anomalies. Mclain (Section 5) presented anomalies of coastal temperature along the Pacific coast and discussed the persistence of these anomalies. South of Washington, the negative anomalies of coastal temperature were not as persistent since 197C or 1971 as they were in the Gulf of Alaska. Part of the reason for this is the station locations. In the Gulf of Alaska, index stations (Johnson et al.. Section 4) were used. Along the Canadian coast the data were collected at exposed light stations, while along the U.S. coast the data were collected at more protected tidal stations. Bakun (Section 6) discussed the upwelling along the Pacific coast. In the early winter of 1975-76, the northern Gulf of Alaska had nearly normal vigorous downwelling in contrast to the lower intensity of downwelling the previous winter. Upwelling was unusually strong and sustained during 1975 in the California Current region as a whole. Section 1 Saur (Section 7) gave an interesting analysis of the heat content in the surface layers of the Pacific between the U.S. west coast and the Hawaiian Islands. In time vs. distance plots of anomalies, the salinity anomalies tended to align themselves along the time axis, while the temperature anomalies tended to align themselves along the distance axis. The salinity anomalies also migrate westward across the Transition Zone from California Current waters to Eastern North Pacific waters. The surface salinity anomalies were positive in the Transition Zone from May 1974 through May 1975 in contrast to 1972 and 1973 when the anomalies were negative from January through July. The surface temperature anomalies in 1974 and 1975 were quite different than in 1972 and 1973, Whereas the anomalies in 1972 and 1973 were confused, they were warm in the last half of 1974. The beginning of 1975 was warm, but the last half was cold. The results derived from an analysis of heat storage in the surface layer are quite different. The anomalies of heat storage were indeterminate in 1972 and 1973. In 1974 and 1975 the Transition Zone heat storage anomalies were near zero except for the 1975 winter which was warm. The Eastern North Pacific waters were warm throughout most of 1974, while the heat storage anomalies were near zero throughout most of 1975. Miller (Section 8) discussed the distributions of yellowfin and sTcipjack tunas and Peruvian anchoveta in relation to sea surface temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific. Quinn (Section 9) presented an update to his excellent El Nino analysis in the earlier volume of this series (Quinn 1976). Favorite (Section 10) presented an interesting review of sunspot activity vs. Pacific oceanic conditions and potential relations between oceanic conditions and survival of salmon and Dungeness crab. Hastings (Section 11) discussed his eastern Bering Sea hydrodynamical-numerical model that simulates tidal currents for studies of larval transport and dispersion. Although not a contributor to this report, Lasker (in press) has given an excellent review of ongoing research on biological changes affected by variability in the ocean environment. His paper is necessary reading for anyone who would gain an understanding of the complex interactions between biological changes and the ocean environment. J[llt§E££ station The climatic regime, both atmospheric pressure and sea surface temperature, as presented by Dickson and Naraias (Section 3) is a starting point for examining the environmental conditions in the Section 1 areas of our Pacific fishery resources. The spring 1975 pressure anomalies indicate that upwelling along the western coast of North America should have been strong north of California. Indeed, Bakun (Section 6) showed an upwelling index with percentile values greater than 70 in March and April north of 3 9N. Normal vigorous downwelling in fall 1975 (Bakun, Section 6) in the Gulf of Alaska was associated with weaker cooling (Section 2.1), The rapid relaxation of winter conditions in March and April 1975 mentioned by Bakun was reflected in colder conditions at Yakutat and Sitka, and in a slight extension of the cooling season (Section 2.1). The unusually strong and sustained upwelling throughout the California Current region (Eakun, Section 6) was reflected in the colder temperatures at tidal stations (McLain, Section 5) . Do the data in the several contributions support the thesis that 1975 was a year for regrouping? Was 1975 a transition year between the regime whidh existed from 1971 to 1974 and a following regime? The anomalies presented by Saur (Section 7) showed that changes began in 1974. Quinn (Section 9) found a shortening of the southern oscillation period beginning in 1974. The maximum percentile of upwelling index shifted southward in 1975, from between 48N and 39N to between 39N and SON (Bakun, Section 6; Bakun 1976) . The Transition Zone was weak and diffuse in 1974. It became sharp and definite again in 1975, but much broader than in 1972 or 1973 (Section 2.4) . Fishing Information portrayed sea surface temperatures colder throughout 1975 over major areas of the eastern North Pacific. What does this disparate set of facts indicate for the climatic- oceanic regime of 1975? Was 1975 a transition year? It was a year that repeated the previous four years in certain aspects, such as the above average strength of the westerlies. It was a year that showed profound changes in other aspects, such as the size, location, and heat storage of the warm-water pool in the Pacific. Fishing Information portrayed above average strength of the westerlies during the early months of 1976. Sea surface temperature in the Pacific continued a cooling trend in the winter of 1976. If 1975 was a year in transition, it was only part of a multi-year transition whose final disposition is still unknown. Section 1 <^ ATLANTIC The western Atlantic had colder sea surface temperatures in 1975 than in 1974. Positive temperature anomalies were found in the entire western Atlantic in all four seasons of 1974. In 1975, there were major areas with negative temperature anomalies (Fig. 1.3). Positive temperature anomalies were limited to the coast in the winter 1975. In spring, the positive anomalies were limited to the Gulf of Mexico and to a narrow band extending seaward from the Cape Hatteras area. There were almost no positive anomalies in the summer of 1975, and the fall had only a band of anomalies extending seaward from the Middle Atlantic Bight. There are several data products concerned with the Atlantic Ocean. Section 2.1 comprises time vs. distance contours of coastal temperatures in the Gulf of Maine, Long Island Sound, the U.S. east coast, and the Gulf of Mexico. Section 2.2 contains profiles of Chesapeake Bay runoff. Section 2.3 (McLain) contains monthly plots of sea surface temperature anomalies in the western North Atlantic. Section 2.5 (Smith and Jossi) is an analysis of copepod species as an indicator of water types. Sections 12 through 20 are contributions by several authors regarding various aspects of the Atlantic Ocean environment during 1975. Gunn (Section 12) discussed the variations in the position of the front between Shelf Waters and Slope Waters off the U.S. east coast. Two years of data were available and the details of the frontal positions differ between 1974 and 1975. However, the statistical profile of the frontal position was quite similar in the two years, as shown by the mean and the standard deviation of the frontal positions along transects. Noticeable differences in mean and standard deviation were found at the Casco Bay transects offshore of the coast of Maine, and in the mean position at the Cape Remain transect in the South Atlantic Bight. The frontal position transgressed over Georges Bank and the Bank was covered partially by Slope Water to varying amounts throughout the two years. The peaks in coverage by Slope Water were in August- September 1974, with a maximum of about M% coverage, and July and September 1975, with maxima of about 40% coverage. Gunn (Section 13) presented data on wind-driven transport along the U.S. east coast and in the Gulf of Mexico. Off Cape Hatteras the wind-driven transport was not favorable to the survival of menhaden larvae during the menhaden spawning season. Davis (Section 14) made a rather thorough analysis of the bottom temperatures in the Gulf of Maine and on Georges Bank. There has been a warming trend since 1968 in both the Gulf of Maine and on 10 Section 1 Georges Baii1<:. The bottom temperatures reversed that trend from 1974 to 1975, but 1975 remained warmer than the mean temperature of the study period. Chamberlin et al. (Section 15) presented an analysis of standard sections across the mouth of the Bay of Fundy from Bar Harbor, ME, to Yarmouth, N.S. Chamberlin (Section 16) presented a review of shelf and slope bottom temperatures south of New England. Bisagni (Section 17) analyzed the number of eddies, and their persistence, passing through the New York Bight. The number of eddy-days in the last half of 1975 was almost double the number in the last half of 1974. Barans and Boumillat (Section 18) presented an analysis of surface drift in the South Atlantic Bight as determined by drift bottle studies. Lough (Section 19) gave an interesting discussion on the distri- bution of herring larvae in the Georges Bank and Nantucket Shoals areas. While the number of herring larvae in December 1975 was much less than in December 1973 or 1974, mortality in the winter was so much less that the numbers were approximately equal in all three of the following Eebruaries. In addition, the growth rate had increased so that the average size of the larvae was greater in February 1976 than in either of the previous two years. Bogers (Section 20) reported on a bloom of siphonophores which caused extensive fouling of fishing gear in the fall of 1975 in the coastal waters of New England. As with the Pacific, the climatic regime, both atmospheric and oceanic, serves as a starting point for examining the environ- mental conditions in the areas of our fisheries resources. Winter pressure anomalies were consistent with wind-driven transport unfavorable to menhaden larvae (Fig. 1.2; Gunn , Section 13) . By far the most interesting sequence of events took place in summer and fall 1975 over the northeast sector of North America, In the summer an anomalous high pressure cell situated over northeastern Canada gave rise to an anomalous northeast atmospheric flow. This had two consequences: moist conditions were brought to the northeastern United States, and the Gulf Stream cast off an increased number of eddies (Section 2.2; Bisagni, Section 17). The northeast atmospheric flow possibly increased the inflow of cold water through Northeast Channel into the northern Gulf of Maine. This was not reflected in the Bar 11 Section 1 Harbcr- Yarmouth sections (Chamberlin et al.. Section 15) except on the July 16th section. It was reflected in the bottom water cooling in the fall (Davis, Section 14) . In fall 1975, the anomalous high pressure cell had moved southeast and was situated over the Middle Atlantic Bight. This brought anomalous atmospheric flow from the south and a warming situation to the northeastern states (Section 2.1). It did not decrease the runoff nor decrease the Gulf Stream eddies (Section 2.2; Eisagni, Section 17). The summer climatic regime highlights an interesting feedback mechanism. The increased runoff would produce lower salinity in the Shelf Water unless it were compensated by increased mixing with Slope Water. The increased number of eddy days provides the source of high salinity water to mix into Slope Water. This mechanism tends to stabilize the salinities of Shelf Water and Slope Water, and makes the relative volumes of the two water categories the free variable. A conseguence of the increased eddy days in summer and fall 1975 would be an increase in Slope Water volume. This would be reflected in the position of the Shelf Water/Slope Water front. Along all bearing lines from Casco Bay 1U0 to Cape Eomain 140 (Gunn, Section 12), the Shelf Water /Slope Water front was shoreward of its 1974 position, with an average difference of 12 km. In July and again in September, Slope Water covered 40^ of Georges Bank. The maximum coverage in 1974 was 17^. The spawning success of herring was apparently much reduced, and by December the numbers of larval herring were one seventh of what they had been in December 1974 (Lough, Section 19). While fall pressure distributions brought warm conditions to the New England states and warm sea surface temperatures to the Middle Atlantic Bight, sea surface temperatures off New England were colder than they had been in fall 1974 (Figs. 1.2, 1.3) . The warm atmospheric conditions did bring warmer temperatures to the sea surface very near to shore (Section 2.1). The western reaches of the Gulf of Maine had fall bottom temperatures about 1.5C colder than in 1974 (Davis, Section 14). The tide stations nearby had fall temperatures about 2C warmer than in 1974 (Section 2.1). While the distance between these two measurements is about 50 km, there is an indication of increased layering (the temperature difference changed from 5.5C in 1974 to 9.CC in 1975). This is associated with the anomalous high pressure cell over the Middle Atlantic Bight which helped suppress the fall irixing that normally takes place. Associated with these conditions were two biological phenomena. There was an extensive bloom of siphonophores in the Gulf of Maine-Georges Bank region (Pogers, Section 20). The survival of 12 Section 1 larval herring over the winter was far greater than in the previous two years (Lough, Section 19). The distributions of siphonophores and of herring larvae were approximately the same. The greatest concentrations were in the Nantucket Shoals and the northern portions of Georges Bank. It is possible that the gelatinous masses of siphcrcphore decreased the larval herring mortality by either providing an alternate food to predators or by providing increased hiding places for the larvae. LITERATUEE CITED BAKUN, A. 1976. Coastal upwelling off western North America, 1974. In Goulet, J. R. , Jr. (compiler). The environment of the United States living marine resources - 1974, p. 12-1-- 12-16. U.S. Dep. Commer. , Natl. Ocean. Atmos. Admin., Natl. Mar. Fish. Serv., MABMAP (Mar. Resour. Monit. Assess. Predict. Prog.) Contrib. 104. lASKER, E. In press. Ocean variability and its biological effects: regional review - northeast Pacific. Raports et Proces Verbaux, Vol. 173. JOHNSON, J. H., D. R. McLAIN, and C. S. NELSON. 1976. Climatic change in the Pacific Ocean. In Goulet, J. R. , Jr. (compiler) , The environment of the United States living marine resources - 1974, p. 4-1 — 4-33. U.S. Dep. Commer., Natl. Ocean. Atmos. Admin., Natl. Mar. Fish. Serv., MAEMAP (Mar. Resour, Monit. Assess. Predict. Prog.) Contrib. 104. NAMIAS, J., and R. R. DICKSON. 1976. Atmospheric climatology and its effect on sea surface temperature. In Goulet, J. R., Jr. (compiler). The envi- ronment of the United States living marine resources - 1974, p. 3-1 — 3-17. U.S. Dep. Commer., Natl. Ocean. Atmos. Admin., Natl. Mar. Fish. Serv., MARMAP (Mar. Resour. Monit. Assess. Predict. Prog.) Contrib. 104. QUINN, W. H. 1976. El Nino, anomalous Equatorial Pacific conditions and their prediction. In Goulet, J. R., Jr. (compiler). The environment of the United States living marine resources - 1974, > p. 11-1 — 11-18. U.S. Dep. Commer., Natl. Ocean. Atmos. Admin., Natl. Mar. Fish. Serv., MARMAP (Mar. Resour. Monit. Assess. Predict. Prog.) 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CO £1 ro CO T3 c 0 0 I CO OT I CO ^ <» 0 c b ^ E 3 0 0 C 0 0 c CD nl H C3) ,^ ■^ E 0 in « + CO '—^ 3 0 ir> F + r 0 (0 0 r 1^ 0 >. CO E 0 c CO ^^ ^ O) > ^ CD CO 3 0 1 n CM j- a> 3 O) u. 16 £ CO z E o (0 o a. a. Q. c T3 to CO O CO m CO o o> c o O >. CO E o c CO o 3 w k. 0) a. E 0) v o CO CO 3 O I 3 O) 17 I b E o o Q. (O O) c T3 O) CO a. Q. CO o> - TJ 3 c O CO o o >. CO E o c CO CD 3 « V Q. E B a> u CO CO 3 o CO 3 1 18 Section 2 DATA FBODUCTS One function of an annual summary of environmental conditions affecting living marine resources is to provide displays of environmental data that are known to have fisheries significance and that are available repeatedly year after year. Due to the complexity of interactions between living marine resources and their environment an annual compendium of data products cannot provide all the desirable information. This section contains several environmental data products, with the aim of providing researchers a generally useful collection for studying the relationships of living marine resources to their environment. Perhaps the most basic environmental variables of significance to fisheries are those describing the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Atmospheric variables include the distributions of surface barometric pressure and the height of atmospheric pressure surfaces. Oceanic variables include the distributions of horizontal and vertical currents and of wind-driven transport. Observations of these variables, and of associated variables such as sea surface temperature, are available to fisheries investigators because they are made routinely by merchant ships in support of weather forecasting. l^aps of the height of the 700 mb surface are published in the HoHiill^ Weather F^view (American Meteorological Society, professional journal) , and are not duplicated here. Sea surface temperature (SST) is often used as an indicator of environmental fluctuations. It is affected by many atmospheric and oceanic processes, including insolation, currents, and ifixing. It correlates with the distribution of marine organisms in many cases, and its anomaly patterns have coherence over great distances and time periods. "Teleconnections" are found airong a variety of parameters (including height of the 7C0 mb surface, SST, precipitation, and currents). Such teleconnections, or coherence between environmental processes over great distance a rid time intervals, offer the interesting possibility of relating biological fluctuations in different areas, or different species, that may now appear as unrelated events. Subsurface temperature offers a means of portraying features such as fronts or currents, tut unfortunately is not as widely observed as temperature at the sea surface. 19 Section 2 Freshwater runoff into bays and estuaries is an important variable. Excess runoff in springtime can affect the spawning and larval survival of many commercially important species of fishes and shellfishes by decreasing the normal salinity of the water, increasing turbidity, and affecting the fishes' food supply. Such runoff carries fertilizers, herbicides, and organic matter which act to reduce the available oxygen. The silt it carries can cover the hard bottoms necessary for oysters and other attached shellfish, and suspended particulate matter interferes with gill functioning in fish. In this section are portrayals of coastal temperatures from U.S. National Ocean Survey tidal stations (Section 2.1) and U.S. Geological Survey data on Chesapeake Bay streamflow (Section 2.2). Also included are sea surface temperature anomaly data from ship observations (McLain, Section 2.3), salinity data from transects of the Eastern North Pacific Transition Zone (Lynn and laurs. Section 2.4), and distributions of phytoplank ton and zooplankton between Cape Hatteras and Station Hotel (Smith and Jossi, Section 2.5). These are continuing data observations which will be repeated in each annual SOE ; other data sets will be added in the future as they become available. The goal is to build a cohesive collection of data products that can be repeated annually and that have fisheries significance. DEFINITIONS Several data products and contributions present anomalies, percentiles, or Z-statistics of selected data sets. The data sets are usually time series at a point or over a given area. Following are definitions: Anomal_y - Departure from a defined norm. Usually, in our applications, the norm is a monthly mean of the variable over some base period. It is not a deviation, in the statistical sense, which is defined as a departure from the mean of the whole data set . liEcentile - In this technique, the data set or subset is ranked by value, and the ranking of a data point, divided by 10C, determines its percentile. This is a nonpararoetric statistic. It indicates, not the magnitude of the data point or its anomaly, but how significantly different it is from the median value. 20 Section 2 Z^statistic - Also called a standardized anomaly, this is calculated by dividing the anomaly by the standard deviation of the data set or subset. This is a parametric statistic, and for normally distributed data, is convertible to percentile using a table of cumulative standard normal distribution, For any measured or estimated environmental element we can present the data in any of three fashions: a) the actual data, b) the anomaly, or c) the percentile or Z-statistic. The data set or derived data set can then be plotted or contoured in any of several standard ways. The technique of presentation is chosen by the individual contributor to best portray the phenomenon under study. Thus presentation of an upwelling index can give us a picture of actual upwelling or downwelling conditions. Presentation of the anomaly can give us a picture of the magnitude of the departures from normal conditions, while presentation of the percentile can give us a picture of the significance of the anomalies. For example, a small anomaly in a region with almost no variation is far more significant (very large or very small percentile) than a large anomaly in a region with large variations (percentile near 50) . 2.1 COASTAL TEMFEEATURES Mean monthly SST*s, from daily temperatures observed at NOS tidal stations, as well as the difference between monthly means, were ccntcured on time versus distance (latitude or longitude) plots. The available data were divided into six regions: Gulf of Maine Long Island Sound East Coast, Montauk to Key West Gulf of Mexico West Coast Gulf of Alaska Because the 1974 SOE presented these data in degrees Fahrenheit, they are repeated 'here in degrees Celsius for comparison with the 1975 data. Gulf of Maine - The SST's in the Gulf of Maine (Fig. 2.1) were essentially the same in 1975 as in 1974. The coldest temperatures, about 0.5C, occurred at Portland and Bar Harbor in February of both years. The warmest temperatures both years were 21 Section 2 about 20. 5C at Boston in August. Tlie changes in mean monthly temperatures also appear quite siroilar. The change from cooling to warming occurred in mid- February and from warming to cooling in early August of both years. However, the time of maximum warming was nearly a month earlier in ^9'^'=^ than in 1974. The short-lived rapid cooling at Bar Harbor and Eastport in October 1974 was not repeated in 1975, but a more widespread area of intense cooling began in November 1975, presaging a cold January 1976. 122:3 i§l§Il^ Sound - In Long Island, Sound (Fig. 2.2) summers 197U and 1975 appear almost identical in terms of SST's, with the maximum of about 25C occurring at Bridgeport in August. In December 1975, the sea was some 2C warmer than December 1974, but the coding trend towards the end of 1975 was stronger, especially in the west, forerunning the cold January of 1976. Though cooling began slightly earlier in 1975, the maximum rate was not reached until much later (November-December vs. September-October). The same temperatures *ere reached about half a month earlier in 1974 than in 1975. Both years reached a low of 6C in December at the two ends of the Sound, with Bridgeport again the warmest area, as it was throughout the year. I9st Coast - f.long the U.S. east coast (Fig. 2.3) SST's in the first part of 1975 were about 2C cooler than in 1974, lasting into June in the northern areas. The month-to- month warming was fairly similar in both years until late spring, when 1975 warmed 6C/mo compared to 4C/mo in 1974, to bring the summer maxima to nearly the same value for both years, 1974 being just slightly warmer. The fall cooling was noticeably less rapid in 1975 than in 1S74, with the result that by November the sea was 4C (slightly less in the south) warmer than in 1974. This was the warmest November along the east coast on record. Eapid cooling was evident in December 1975, leading to a cold January in 1976. Gulf of Mexico - Around the U.S. Gulf Coast (Fig. 2.4) the first quarter of 1974 was warmer than 1975 by up to 2C. But 1975 showed a more intense warming trend in the spring, so that the two summers were almost alike, reaching 30C at Key West and Naples from June through September and at Cedar Key in August. Cooling extended into February 1974, while heating had started already in January 1975. Maximum warming was reached in April-May in both years, reaching 4C/mo between Cedar Key, FL, and Port Mansfield, TX. In 1975 there was a small cell of 8C/mo near Mobile (Dauphin Island). The cooling from September through 92 Section 2 Eecember was similar both years except in December in the Florida Panhandle, where cooling approached OC/mo in 1974 and 4C/mo in 197 p 5i§st Coast - The pattern of SST ' s during the past two years along the U.S. Pacific coast (Fig. 2.5) was virtually identical, but 1975 was a degree or two cooler throughout. The cycle of warming and cooling was essentially the same both years except for October at Astoria, OE, where cooling reached a maximum of 4C/mo in 1974. Cooling in southern California reached 2C/nio in December 1975, about twice the rate of cooling reached in December 1974. ^ulf of Alaska - Along the south coast of Alaska (Fig. 2.6) the SST's showed similar patterns in 1974 and 1975, with cold cells of 2C at Juneau, Kodiak, and Unalaska. It is impossible to deduce from the observations whether the last two are local effects or a cold area spread all along the coast between these two stations, as there is no observation point in the 950 km between them. Juneau was at all times colder than other southeastern Alaska stations. It lies 130 km from open ocean and is therefore not as representative of oceanic conditions. The warmest spots both years were Sitka to Yakutat and Seward, which were warmer than 12C in July and August both years. The maximum rate of summer warming reached 3C/mo from Juneau to Yakutat and at Seward in 19*74, while in 1975 the summer warming was not as strong. Also, the summer of 1974 was warm soirewhat longer than 1975, although the maximum rate of fall coding occurred a month earlier in 1974 than in 1975. 2.2 CHESAPEAKE BAY STREAMFIOW Estimates of monthly streamflow into Chesapeake Bay are provided by the USGS in cooperation with the several States of the Chesapeake Bay's drainage basin (Appendix 2.1). The streamflow in 1975 followed the average pattern fairly closely through August. The extremely high flow in September was due to a combination of the extensive rainfall system brought northward by the dying hurricane Eloise and a stagnant frontal zone. Rainfall amounted to 5 in (13 cm) or mere over eastern Virginia, extreme eastern West Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, and southern New York. Storm totals exceeded 10 in (26 cm) along some of the eastern mountain slopes, triggering major flooding on the Chemung, Susquehannah, Potomac, and Shenandoah Fivers (Hetert 1976). This excess flow continued into October, but volume returned to normal by the end of the year. 23 Section 2 2.3 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATDBE ANOMALIES^ Ships of many nations, including U.S. Navy and merchant vessels, routinely make surface water temperature observations at sea as part of normal weather observations. The NMFS Pacific Environmental Group has access to these real-time weather reports received by teletype by the U.S. Navy Fleet Numerical Weather Central. These weather reports are available globally on magnetic tape. This section presents monthly maps of numeric values of SST and its anomaly from a long-term mean (1948-1967) for three areas along the United States coasts (Appendix 2.2) . These areas include the waters near the East Coast in the northwest Atlantic (20N-46N, from the coast east to 60W) , near Alaska (45N-63N, from the coast west to 180W), and near the West Coast (20N-50N, from the coast west to 150W) . Similar SST monthly mean anomaly maps for the Atlantic area were presented by McLain (1976) for 1974. The maps presented in Appendix 2.2 partially duplicate SST anomaly maps available elsewhere: Atlantic maps published in gulf stream by the National Weather Service, and Pacific maps published in Fishing Information, Southwest Fisheries Center, NMFS, La Jolla, CA 92038. These maps differ from those presented here in various respects. The aulfstream maps give numeric values of temperature and anomaly as do the maps presented here, but do not include the Gulf of Mexico. They are referenced against a long-term mean of all available historical data. The lishing Information maps cover most of the North Pacific Ocean, but do not include data for the Bering Sea. These maps are contoured and do not give numeric values. They are referenced against the same 1948-67 period as used herein. The maps presented here (Appendix 2.2) are an attempt to provide data in a uniform format fcr areas of fishery importance on both Atlantic and Pacific coasts. The maps are based on data that are available at low cost within hours after collection, and so offer a possible system for near real-time monitoring of coastal environmental conditions. £§t§ Processing The maps were constructed from observations of SST received in "real-time" from merchant, naval, and other vessels by Fleet Numerical Weather Central. These reports were edited by a ^Prepared by D. R. McLain, Pacific Environmental Group, National Marine Fisheries Service, NCAA, Monterey, CA 93940. 24 Section 2 two-stage filter. In the first stage all observations less than -2.0C or greater than 40. OC were rejected to eliminate obviously erroneous values. In the second stage, reports greater than B.OC from a mean of two or more observations were rejected. This mean was that of the previous month for the first two reports of the month, and of the month itself for later reports. Monthly means of SST by one degree square of longitude and latitude were then computed, as were anomalies from a long-term monthly mean which had been computed earlier as 20-yr means (1 948-67) of monthly means by one degree squares. These long term means were calculated from SST reports archived at the National Climatic Center (Tape Data Family-11). The SST, the anomaly from the 1948-67 mean, and the number of observations for each one degree square were finally plotted on an electrostatic plotter for each month for each of the three areas of interest. The convention followed by the qulf stream and by McLain (1976) was not to plot means or anomalies if there were fewer than four observations per one degree square/mo. This procedure works well in the northwest Atlantic where observations are abundant, but in the Pacific, and particularly in the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea where observations are much scarcer, plotting only squares with four or more observations results in larqe areas void of any data. I, therefore, plotted means for all areas if only two or more observations were available. This may result in a slightly noisier data product than found in SUlf stream or McLain (1976), but it does provide usable information in important fishery areas of the North Pacific. The SST anomaly maps presented in qulf stream and by Mclain (1976) show anomalies if historical data are available for any year or combination of years in their respective reference periods. In the present maps, monthly mean SST's but not anomalies are plotted if there are fewer than 5 years represented in the 1948-67 mean. The 1-degree squares are shaded for anomalies of 1.0c or greater and for -1.0C or lower to emphasize regions of large SST anomaly. Sources of Error There are a number of potential sources of bias and error associated with these data. Seme of these errors are as follows: 1. The observing ships tend to avoid areas of bad weather and thus the observations are biased towards areas of fair weather. 2. The observations are not randomly distributed over the oceans, but instead are concentrated along shipping lanes. Thus observations are much more dense off New York and Los Angeles than in the infrequently traveled portions of the 25 Section 2 Gulf of Mexico or Gulf of Alaska. Also the data may be biased due to varying distribution of observations in time and space within each one degree square. 3. Most of the observations of SST are "injection temperatures," that is, they are made with a thermometer in the ship's main cooling water intake. Thus they are subject to instrument calibration error and to warming of the intake water in the engine room. Using data from 12 selected ships, Saur (1963) studied these errors and found that the injection temperatures averaged about 1 . 2F (0.7C) higher than surface water temperatures taken by a bucket thermometer. 2. a EASTERN NOFTH PACIFIC TRANSITION ZONE^ The early season distribution and relative abundance of North Pacific albacore and the interannual variations in these factors have been shown to be associated with the Transition Zone (Laurs and Lynn, 1977) • The Transition Zone waters are found between modified subarctic waters to the north and subtropic waters to the south. The subarctic and subtropic fronts form the boundaries of the Zone. '^he subarctic and subtropic fronts were strongly developed and formed distinctive boundaries of the Transition Zone in June 1972 and 197 3. In 1974, the frontal structure was poorly developed and the boundaries of the Transition Zone waters were indistinct (Laurs and Lynn 1976; Saur 1976). In June 1975, the frontal system was again strongly developed and appeared in much the same form as it had in 1972 and 1973. For the fourth year in succession, the La Jolla Laboratory of the National Marine Fisheries Service, Southwest Fisheries Center has conducted a preseason albacore/oceanography survey across the Transition Zone in an offshore region centered about 800 nm (1500 km) west of central California. In each of these years, the survey was conducted in cooperation with commercial albacore vessels on charter to the American Fishermen's Research Foundation. In 1975, the survey operations were abbreviated in scope. The NOS RV Townsend Cromwell sailed from Seattle to Honolulu, conducting oceanogr aphic stations enroute. A single north tc south transect was made across the Transition Zone along 137W30'. Three chartered fishing vessels scouted along the same ^Prepared by R. J. Lynn and R. M. Laurs, Southwest Fisheries Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, La Jolla, CA 92038. 26 Section 2 track; however, participation by independent commercial fishing vessels, which had been so helpful in past years, did not materialize because of a late alfcaccre price settlement. As a result, the fishing effort was very limited and the catch distribution was inconclusive as to association with oceancgraphic conditions. Four cceanographic sections of the vertical distribution of salinity along 137W30' taken in June 1972-75 are given in Figure 2.7. The low salinity subarctic waters are depicted by hatched shading of salinities less than 33.8 o/oo. The high salinity subtropic waters are depicted with dotted shading. For the first three years, the dotted shading is shown for salinities greater than 3U.2 o/oo. In June 1975, the salinities in the Transition Zone were generally 0.2 o/oc higher than in the earlier years, hence the lower limit for the dotted shading was given as 34.4 o/oo. The 58F (14. 4C) and 62F (16. 7C) isotherms are shown by heavy dashed lines. In each of these sections, the fronts are identified by sharp hori2ontal gradients of salinity that extend from the surface to 150 m or more and by abrupt changes in depth of specific isotherms. The subarctic front involves a change in depth of the 58F <14.4C) isotherm and the vertical excursion of the 33.8 o/oo isohaline. To the north, the surface waters are low in salinity and the 33.8 o/oo isohaline is found in the halocline below 150 m. The subtropic front involves a change in depth of the 62F (16. 7C) isotherm and a vertical excursion of the 34.4 o/oo and/or 34.6 o/oo isohalines. To the south, the surface waters are high in salinity and decrease abruptly below 180 m. In June 1975, the subtropic front, at 32N, and the subarctic front, at 36N30', are seen to be clearly reestablished from the poorly developed conditions found in June 1974. This reestablishment lends support to the speculation that the 1974 conditions were atypical. However, there are seme differences between the 1975 section and the 1972 and 1973 sections. The low salinity subarctic water is shallow in 1975, suggesting that slightly higher salinities prevailed in the deeper layers as well as in the Transition Zone. Also, the Transition Zone is half again as bread in 1975 as in 1972 and 1973. The broad separation between the subtropic and subarctic fronts was also found to the west in closely spaced expendable bathythermograph (XBT) observations on a transect taken between Seattle and Honolulu (Saur, Section 7) . 27 Section 2 2.5 COFEPOEA, NET P HYTOPL ANKTON, AND T-S-COPEPOD PEIATIONSHIPS IN THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC EIGHT^ During 1974 and 1975 Hardy Continuous Plankton Recorders (CPF ; Hardy 1939) collected samples monthly while being tovjed by U.S. Coast Guard cutters between the mouth of Chesapeake Bay and Ocean Weather Station HOTEL {38N, 71W). In addition, XBT and surface bucket temperature and surface salinity measurements were made at 1-hour intervals along these routes. This is part of a cooperative agreement between the MARMAP Program of the National Marine Fisheries Service and 1) the U.S. Coast Guard for the at-sea collection of data, and 2) the Institute for Marine Environmental Research (IMER) of the United Kingdom for a southern extension of the long-term survey of plankton dynamics in the North Atlantic by which IMER has been monitoring seasonal and long-term changes since 1930. This section reports the seasonal abundance and variation of copepods; seasonal variation of net phyt oplankton in the Shelf, Slope, and Gulf Stream Waters, at a 1C m depth along the CPR route; and copepod abundance in relation to surface temperature and salinity. Figures 2.8 and 2.9 show the various positions of the thermal fronts and water masses according to the U.S. Navy Experimental Ocean Frontal Analysis (EOFA) for time periods as close as possible to the times of CPR tows. The CPR transects are superimposed to show their relationship to these oceanic features. The oceanographic features have been described in detail by Cook et al."^ The EOFA needed to be modified slightly in March, June, September, and November 1975 for either 1) conflict with the XBT data, or 2) conflict with species composition data. Water masses moved extensively from month to month, and plankton distribution reflected these changes. Slope Water was not sampled in June because it had moved north of the survey area. ^Prepared by D. E. Smith and J. W. Jossi, MARMAP Field Group, NMFS, Narragansett, RI 02882. We thank the U.S. Coast Guard Marine Services Branch, Atlantic Area, and the officers and crews of the USCG cutters Tane^^r Tamaroa, Ing.ha,m, Unimak, and Chase for their assistance in conducting this survey. ^Cook, S. K., B. P. Collins, and C. Carty, 1977. Expendable bathythermograph observations from the NMFS/MARAD ships of opportunity program for 1975. MS. Atlantic Environmental Group, NMFS, Narragansett, RI 02882. 28 Section 2 Relative abundance of phyi:oplankton versus month in three water masses is shown in Figure 2.10. Abundance of copepods versus month in each water mass is shown in Figure 2.11. Please note that on the latter figure the abundance scale differs for the Gulf Stream Water mass. Shelf Water The mixed diatom and dincf lagellate flora of October 1974 was replaced by an all dinof lagellate flora by November. These dinof lagellates were replaced by diatoms by January 1975. Phytoplankton did not occur in February samples. A dinof lagellate bloom appears to have begun in March, and it peaked in June. Dinof lagellates were observed in lower numbers in August. Phytoplanktor was not observed in September 1975. An autumn bloom of both diatoms and dinof lagellates occurred in November 1975. This was one month later than in autumn 1974 and was followed by a decline of both groups rather than by an increase of dinof lagellates as in 1974. The Shelf Water copepods were a mixture of cold- and warm-water species. Centropages t_y£icus, Calanus f in larch icus, Temora Igngicgrnis, and Pseudocalanus spp. were the abundant cold-water species. Oncaea spp. , Corycaeus spp. , Centrgj^ages velificatus, Teroora turbinata, Calanus jnincr, Farranula gracilis, and MgC-YDPggia clausi were the abundant warm-water species. The maximum numbers of warm-water copepods occurred when sampling began in October 1974 (Fig. 2.11). They had declined greatly by November and most were absent by January. A few reappeared in May and June. They increased through August and reached an autumn maximum in September and were depleted by November and absent in December. Centrgpages tYpicus (a ccld-water copepod) was absent in October but had a fall increase, after the fall maximum of the warm-water copepods, in both 1974 and 1975. Centrgpa^es tj^^icus was absent again by January 1975. The cold-wat€r--warm- water species made up the entire collections in January, had increased by February, and were gradually replaced through March and May by the cold-water species. These cold- and warm-water species were probably cold-water members of these three groups (shown in Fig. 2.11) rather than a mixture of cold- and warm-water species. The spring increase of the cold-water species began in February and peaked in May. A declining remnant of Centrgpages t^^icus was present in June, but, otherwise, the cold-water copepods did not appear again until C. typicus reappeared in November. 29? Section 2 The fall 1974 decline in diatoms was coincident with a decline of warm-water copepods and an increase of dinof lagellates and the cope pod C. tj£icus. Diatoms increased again in January when dinof lagellates were absent and copepods were at a minimum. The spring copepod increase followed the January diatom increase. The diatoms disappeared by February. Copepods continued to increase, rinof lagellates began to increase about two months later than diatoms and copepods. They peaked while the copepods were in a June minimuin. Dinof lagellates in August preceded the August to September copepod increase. Diatoms and dinof lagellates bloomed in November 1975 while the copepods were at a relatively low abundance. Copepods increased again after this fall phytoplankton bloom. Slc_ge Water Dinof lagellates in the Slope Water were less abundant than in Shelf Water, while diatoms were more abundant and much more diverse than in Shelf Water. Silicof lagella tes were found in Slope Water but were absent in Shelf and Gulf Stream Water. There was a fall bloom of phytoplankton from August to November 1 97U and a spring bloom from January to May. There was no fall bloom observed in 1975. Diatoms were always present when phytoplankton were found as opposed to their occurrence during only three months in Shelf Water. They were numerically dominant except in May 1975. Silicof lagellates increased and decreased along with the diatoms. They were absent when diatom numbers were low in August of both years and in January 1975, Centro^ages t^^icus was the first cold-water copepod to appear in February. It steadily increased until May when it dominated the plankton. It was absent from the CPP samples by August. The cold-water Calanus copepodites and Pseudocalanus spp. were abundant in May but appeared neither before nor after. The August-October 1974 decline in copepods occurred while there was an increase in diatoms. A November copepod increase coincided with a phytoplankton bloom made up mostly of diatoms. The spring increase of copepods and phytoplankton began about the same time but the phytoplankton reached peak abundance two months before the copepods. Diatoms were reduced significantly from their March peak by the time the copepods peaked in May. The dinof lagellates maintained their numbers during the copepod increase but did not occur after the May peak. The spring copepod increase coincided in time with that in Shelf Water and was dominated in both water masses by C. ty^icus. The presence of diatoms in August 1975 coincided with a copepod increase. fl 30 Section 2 Gulf Stream Water Data show a diatom bloom during January- March, which may have persisted — no April or May samples were obtained. They increased in February. The appearance of diatoms in August 1975 was followed by a copepod increase and a phytcplank ton absence, D incf lagellates which are large enough to be retained in the CPR silk were of low abundance. Gulf Stream diatoms were less abundant than Slope Water diatoms, but more abundant than Shelf Water diatoms. Centro£ages t^^picus was the only cold-water copepod to appear in the Gulf Stream. It only appeared in samples taken close to the Shelf or Slope Water front, and mostly in winter. The Gulf Stream copepod population abundance was approximately one order of magnitude less than the Shelf or Slope Water population. Minima appeared in January and August 1975. There were maxima in February, June, and September 19'75. I§I!!£SI§:iU£^"Salinitj-Co£e£od Distribution T-S-copepod distributions of several species are shown in Figures 2.12 through 2.17. Centro^a^es velificatus occurred in Shelf and Slope Water only at temperatures above 19C and salinites of <35 o/oo. Centro^a^es t_y_picus was limited to <36 o/oo and <24.5C. It was most numerous in nearshore Shelf Water. Centropa^es brad_yi was found in Slope Water with salinities of 33-35 o/oo, and it appears to be a good Slope Water indicator species. M§ili^ia lucens occurred only between 33 and 36 o/oo salinity and <17C in mostly Slope Water with one relatively abundant occurrence in Shelf Water. Pleuroroamrrva abdominalis occurred only Id Slope, Gulf Stream, and Sargasso Sea Water at salinities >34.5 o/oo and temperatures >22.5C. El§ilI2I!!9iBiIl^ jgracilis was abundant in night samples in salinities between 34 and 36 o/oo and temperatures <26C, It was absent in daytime samples, indicating diel vertical migration greater than 1C m in the daytime. It had a high occurrence in Slope Water but occurred in only one Shelf Water sample. Pleurcmamma robusta was found cnly in Slope Water, salinity 34-35.5 o/oo and temperature 15-23C. This appears to be a good Slope Water indicator species. larEajQUla gracilis was most numerous in Slope and Gulf Stream Waters at salinities >34.5 o/oo and temperatures >24.5C. The data show F. gracilis as a good indicator of warm water. Calanus minor occurred in all water masses from warmest Gulf Stream Water to most saline Sargasso Sea Water, least saline Shelf Water, and nearly the coolest Shelf Water, but was most abundant in <35 o/oo salinity and temperatures of 14-23C. Undinula vulgaris was most numerous in Slope and Gulf Stream Waters warmer than 23. 5C, but occurred in Shelf Water at a lower temperature (1 9 .5-21 . 8C) . Temgra stY.lifera had a high percentage occurrence in Slope Water where the temperature was >24C, but was present throughout the 31 Section 2 Gulf Stream and Slope Waters at a lower percentage occurrence. Summary In every case in which diatoms were numerous enough to be recorded, either the ccpepods were more numerous than usual or they increased within a month. In every case following a copepod increase, the diatoms were absent from the samples or had been reduced significantly. In most cases, dinof lagellates either increased along with diatoms or increased after the diatoms. Binoflagellates were not depleted by copepod increases as ' much as diatoms were. It appears as if an increase in dinof lagellates is followed by a decline of the diatom population, but this may result from the diatoms' being consumed by the increased numbers of cope pods and the dinof lagellates ' not being grazed upon. These data indicate that several copepods are indicators of water characteristics: Centro^a^es vilificatus was indicative of warm Shelf Water; Centro^a^es brad;^i, Pleuromamma gracilis, and P» jobusta were indicators of Slope Water. IITEEATUEE CITED HABEY, A. C. 1939. Ecological investigations with the Continuous Plankton Recorder: Object, plan and methods. Hull Bull. Mar. Ecol . 1:1-57. HEBEET, P. J. 1976. North Atlantic tropical cyclones, 1975. Mariners Weather log 20:63-73. LAUES, E. M., and E. J. LYNN. 1976. Oceanography and albacore tuna, Thunnus alalunaa (Bonnaterre) , in the Northeast Pacific during 1974. In Goulet, J. R., Jr. (compiler). The environment of the United States living marine resources - 1974, p. 8-1 — 8-5. U.S. Dep. Ccramer., Natl. Ocean. Atmos. Admin., Natl. Mar. Fish. Serv. , MAEMAP (Mar. Eesour. Monit. Assess. Predict. Prog.) Contrib. 104. 1977. Seasonal migration of North Pacific albacore, Tliunnus ^llliill^l / into North American coastal waters: distribution, relative abundance, and association with Transition Zone waters. Fish. Bull., U.S. 75:795-822. 32 Section 2 McLAIN, D. R. 1976. Monthly maps of sea surface temperature anomaly in the northwest Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, 1974. In Goulet^ J. E., Jr. (compiler) , The environment of the United States living marine resources - 1974, p. 20-1 — 20-5. U.S. Dep. Commer., Natl. Ocean. Atmos. Admin., Natl. Mar. Fish. Serv., MARMAP (Mar. Resour. Monit. Assess. Predict. Frog.) C6ntrib. 104. SAUR, J. F. T. 1963. A study of the quality of seawater temperatures reported in logs of ships' weather observations. J. Appl. Meteorol. 2:417-425. 1976, Changes in the transition zone and heat storage in 1974 between Hawaii and California. In Goulet, J, P., Jr. (compiler) , The environment of the United States living marine resources - 1974, p. 6-1--6-9. U.S. Dep. Ccmmer., Natl. Ocean. Atmos. Admin., Natl. Mar. Fish. Serv., MAPMAP (Mar. Resour. Monit. Assess. Predict. Prog.) Contrib. 104. 33 •o c (0 y/////////////.A44^A^^ o u CO « O) E C3) ■a ^-^ 5 ■« CO h, -J-. o> 0) '^ Q. Q. 3 3 CO a. £ o CO 3 o I V k- 3 34 W7/////////////M =1 «: Q> ^.^ ■* r>- > (J 05 O lu ZQ fc_ o I- > UO o o z ID Si < w ■o c ^.^ jl^ T = D. <2 E 0) CC n- c s< CO (1) CO CC s< E >> JO. 2 m c < ^ o E c a< (0 0) O) c CO SI o 11 S" Ouj 0) >o oLr^ D. O) H > 3 '^ 02 CO "O ^y 3 CO (1) ^Si a. < w i- ^5 CB O CO Z -I 3 z> 3 CO il CO CO £5 < s 0) E >. ^ s < c o Sl5 £ ir s •o Z CQ c < S 3 o CO U 2 T3 O^ c CO CO C3) c o _l 1 c\i eg 3 O) u. 35 36 ^TTrrTyfTTTTTry" o> in CJ) •o c CO o o (O (D 0) O) . c o E _l 1 \ 1 1 D CQ = - " X I <- < U. QC c CD Q. Q. 3 <0 Q. E S '-<: \ \ 1 1 r< ^ / \ J \ '^X, "^ -^ K, \ \ ,\ <* < 1 \ \ CO o> ^^?^^^^^^^r o Q. Q. 3 CD Q. E » E >. c o E CO o o o 3 38 I- < = 2 S ° 2< I § S It I g * 39 ' 1972 27 26 25 100 ^ UJ S 40°N 200 °-. STATION NUMBERS 43 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 1975 ^Along 137^30' W. 32°N Figure i3"N 34°N 35»N 36°N 37''N 38°N 39°N 40''N 4rN 2.7.— Salinity transects along 137W 30' across the Transition Zone. Stippled shading is greater than 34.2 %o except in 1975 which is greater than 34.4 %o. Hatched shading is less than 33.8 %o. 40 e ID V •( \ J^ ■ ^^ A\"\ " • <0 \ -'••^^ ^^ ^r^- e O o lO ro o O 41 ■Q O ■f I ° .1 2 m C CO O -D O^ *- CO -D 5 n II ^ i_' CO o 0) CO Q CO CO CO 5 w c CO O CO X E 73 CO c <1> CO i: <«« |o CO II CO " oc I- Q. CO o ._- - CD "ti CO (D Q. O O S CO (13 CO (0 CO i- CO CD E CO > ^ --i M- CO in o t^ CO II 4 £ T f^ •Sw2 CO CO Q- .9 e? I *- ^ I 2 "5 oi CO 5 Cvi 1- f a, CD CO o) II P 42 o -J UJ 111 Q. o o CO o cr o o CVJ \ CO UJ o z UJ q: a: O o o Ll o q: LU CD 10 8 - 6 - 4 - 2 - 0 20- 18 - 16 - 14 12 - 10 - 8 - 6 - 4 - 2 - GULF STREAM ¥: ^ ^ ¥f ^ T — r T SLOPE WATER — I — * ^ ^ 'X' — r'n — ^■dinoflagellatae OXYTOXUM SPP. PERIDINIUM SPP. CERATIUM FUSUS C. TRIPOS. ^^SILICOFLAGELLATAE I IDIATOMACEAE THALASSIOSIRA BACTERIASTRUM THALASSIONEMA NITZSCHIOIOES THALASSIOTHRIX L0N6ISSIMA NITZSCHIA SERIATA NITZSCHIA SPP RHIZOSOLENIA SPP. DITYLUM 8RIGHTWELLII LEPrOCYLINDRUS SPP. PHAEOCEROS SPP. NO SAMPLE 1974 975 Figure 2.10.— Seasonal variation and relative abundance of the net phytoplankton in three water masses of the mid-Atlantic Bight and adjacent ocean area, August 1974-December 1975. Units are described in the text. 43 ■ COLD WATER SPECIES 1 centropages typicus 2 CALANUS STAGE I- IV 3 PSEUDOCALANUS ADULTS TEMORA LONGlCORNIS CALANUS FINMARCHICUS ^ COLO a WARM WATER SPECIES OITHONA SPP PARACALANUS PSEUDOCALANUS CLAUSOCALANUS SPP WARM WATER SPECIES ONCAEA SPP CORYCAEUS SPP CENTROPAGES FURCATUS TEMORA TURBINATA CALANUS MINOR FARRANULA GRACILIS MECYNOCERA CLAUSI PLEUROMAMMA GRACILIS TEMORA STYLIFERA OTHER COPEPODA MOSTLY UNIDENTIFIED COPEPOOlTES NO SAMPLE 0 N DIJ FMAMJJ 974 1975 Figure 2.11.— Seasonal variation and abundance of epipelagic copepods in three water masses of the Middle Atlantic Bight and adjacent ocean area, August 1974-December 1975. Sampling depth = 10 m. 44 i K.. ^ o •y S> . 5} «v» • • • •• • J L J L <0 I I ' ' ' I L o> 00 N tf> n * fO (M (M CM CM CM N CM CM CM o CM 0> CO (O lO ~ o 0> K F lO o c o < y c >- c 0) CM 3 (Do) 3ynivy3dW3i > 'T k S »K . . . : «0 .^ •<0 ' • — it '• ^ - • •• ^^ ^1^ y^""^ ^-^ • • ^^ 5s ' ^ ^ St \ Q $ Uj E/vr SENT 600 o y ^ k> %- 0) $ J55 5 A i to e - ^ • + • • ••• ::> qj — ^ , 1 1 1 1 till -J 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 CM CDN ton «IOCM^ CMCMCMCMcMCMCM*^ O CM 0> 00 (O in to CM 3 0> Oo) 3dniVU3d^31 r- s. 0} Q. e t to S- ■= >- y o H S c to to Z ■a *^ _l o - < S.E CM in o ~ o en to m — ^ (B (B to O Q- C O CO ^^ "O CO C 3 3 O o $^ to 1 "^ cvi O O) ^? CM a, « 3 O) ii. 45 •GULF STREAM • ..^ ^§3 • — = — *^ . ^ • • • ' SLOPE WATER / •^ ^ 4 SHELF j WATER • j . y 1 is is (X. ^ t\j to i • ^ • • • . ::5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 J I I L N v lO u. E a> o (0 c »o o in c lO ^-^ o .to >5 o o m t O) lO >- S 1- 3 c- ^• K> Z 2 en c 15 r<) _l < u. en ■o o T3 c CM (O Q. (0 0) lO O 3 CJPJCJcvjCMcjOicVj'^ o CM (T> CO CD !£} ^ fO CM O) (Do) 3dniVd3cJIN3i o c to ■D c D < 3 o 00 N- CD lO •* to CM CM O CM (M CM CM CM CO CM CM CM CD ,-:. E if « o is 3 Q. 0} O + s ■O -Q 0) o o ^ ■5 0.' CD CO O . CD ■5 o ^ 8" .a O CD 2 C3) 3 t: (Do) 3ynivy3cdi^3i CD c E J- CD 0) 46 o (0^ $ - ^ o o ^ i^ ^ o ^ "5 to l^Uj to kl 1 ~jfc tXi Q; CM to W fj CM t\J Q. E m -> o >*- o £ C |3 f) o ro v^ o o o Q. ■o *"* c ro K) O 11 to >- o h- o y CM «*— ro < 0) o V) c ro •o c r<-) < 1 O 1 t<) c\i Oo) 3dniVH3dW31 ^ . • .• o ^~r- X . . ; • o 05 <0 "W^ 0 0 ^^ 0 0^ • 0 " 0 ^ «Vl 4-11 12-25 26-50 • • 9 • • •# 1 1 1 _l 1 1., _l L 1 1 1 1 1 1 i_ 1 -i .1 1 1 CO 3 C h- ■0 10 « ■- <0 * ro K) 0 ■ ^:^ S \- So 10 ro 2 ^§ _ ■a 'ts _j 0 ro Q. a) < CD >- «\J o.E 0 10 (D h- 10 n * CJ CM CM CM (M CM IOtMr;00>ODN«0«*«OCMrOO> 0«) 3»niVtJ3dlAi31 47 Appendix 2 . 1 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR GEOLOGICAL SURVEY in Cooperation with STATES OF MARYLAND, PENNSYLVANIA, AND VIRGINIA ESTIMATED STREAMFLOW ENTERING CHESAPEAKE BAY o Z O u ILI to UJ U U to Q Z < to O X 400 A monthly summary of cumulative streamflow into the Chesapeake Bay designed to aid those concerned with studying and managing the Bay's resources. For additional information, contact the District Chief, U.S. Geological Survey, 8809 Satyr Hill Road, Parkville, Maryland 21234, Phone 301-661 -4664. January 5, 1976 -| 1 I I I 10 T 1 T n EXPLANATION Monthly mean streamflow into Chesapeake Bay 1974 — — / 1975 aHBM Average Unshaded area indicotes range between highest ond lowest values of the 24--year record ± 1 X JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC 30 Ull I I I I I I _ Annual mean streamflow into Chesapeake Bay by calendar years 1950 '55 '60 '65 '70 I I I I I I I I I '75 1960 48 ESTIMTED CTMJLA-TrVE STEEAMPLOW ENTERING CHESAPEAKE BAY ABOVE Iin)ICATED SECTIONS BY MONTES, DURING 1975 200 180 160 — 140 — 120 S 100 CAPE CHARLES CAPE HENRY CUMTLATIVE INFLOW TO CHESAPEAKE BAY AT INDICATED CROSS SECTIONS A Mouth of Susquehanna R. 6 Above mouth of Potomac R. C Below mouth of Potomac R. D Above mouth of James R. E Mouth of Chesapeake Bay 49 ESTIMATED CUMJIATrVE STEEAHFLOW ENTEROTG CHESAPEAKE BAY Cubic feet per second at section YEAR MONTH A B C D E I97U January 7i+,300 85,300 117,200 130,800 153,900 February ii7,500 51^,000 68,600 76,200 88,600 March 61,^00 70,800 85,600 94,500 109,000 April 93,000 104,900 131,800 141,000 156,000 May i|0,500 1+6,000 59,800 67,900 81,000 Jime 21,200 25,800 l4l+,100 49,600 58,700 July 21,600 26,200 33,200 35,600 40,100 August 10,700 ll+,300 18,700 21,900 27,400 September 20,000 2U,600 30,400 36,600 46,800 October 12,100 15,900 19,700 21,600 25,200 November 2U,200 29,000 33,000 35,000 38,500 December 514,000 61,800 80,700 87,800 99,400 Mean • 39,900 46,400 60,100 66,400 76,900 1975 January 53,000 60,600 76,400 85,000 97,600 February 86,100 97,800 124,600 136,200 155,600 March 83,000 94,500 132,000 151,300 185,000 April 50,700 57,800 77,000 84,500 96,700 May 59,000 67,800 93,500 104, 100 121,800 June 42,500 48,000 62,700 68,300 77,700 July 19,500 24,000 36,000 43,600 56,100 August 9,460 13,000 19,700 23,600 30,200 September 86,100 97,800 128,600 138,600 155,100 October 66,700 76,800 99,600 106,000 118,000 November 42,500 48,000 63,000 68,400 77,400 December 38,100 43,600 54,400 58,700 66,000 Mean 53,100 60,800 80,600 89,000 103,100 50 APPENDIX 2.2 The maps present by month and by one-degree square the mean monthly sea surface temperature, the departure from a 2C-yr (1948-67) mean, and the number of accepted observations. The temperatures viere net plotted if there were two or fewer observations in that particular one-degree square. Also, anomalies were not plotted if there were fewer than five years represented in the 20-yr mean. Anomalies of magnitude greater than 1.0C are shaded . The maps cover the following regions: Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea 45N-63N 122W-180W Eastern North Pacific 25N-50N 110W-150W Western North Atlantic 20N-a6N 6CW- 99W 51 52 53 9L\ 081 54 % i^r^^-. A -7l ^ ''.^Jl^\ r^ )j t^^ ■"ins "' i" '"' "■ 1'" ^fe - So" TEMPERRTURE RNOMRLY RT THE SEfl SURFHCE (DEGREES CELSIUS) APRIL 1975 NUn DBS 3869 Y ' «lfl 05 ^^ s^- — <^ .^ „ SI ? ^ + u-.C^ -^^ ^^"Jj^ aOJ— - -^'j'. tn ^v- ^ ^^^^ _jjf-/^ W^M " « . ;J^ "!! •=-^_ :7. l"'' ■J- _^' .- ,-^ i^^ ^>o cy^ m "t^o «7« «w„ a>CD IT) <- ^i V4? -?' 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F -ID -.in ?j i' "" 1 -.03 '■en 2^" <■' 2 i" '" ° i" " - i^" r-(M -ID u-CFfJ " F 1 F -ID o-.cn 2^' - 2 |- ,/. si 1 ~ - ^1 mOD taCVJ -01 F -UJ 1 2 ,■ '■' si ■-' S ' 2 - mm " i' "■ fjCD 1 o;CD ~ + -.to IS IS S " ~ l' ' 1 in z OD Z m CD c^ CD ID -^ CO CM ^H s en OO t>- CD in CO cm m m CD CO CO CO CO CO CM C\J CSl CM CM 72 '^ 1 / r 1 M0TI / y Mill NOHFI - NflTIONflL HRRINE FISHERIES SERVICE PACIFIC ENVIRONMENTAL GROUP MONTEREY, CRLIFORNIfl TEMPERRTURE flNOMRLY nT THE SEfl SURFACE (DEGREES CELSIUS) OCTOBER 1975 NUn DBS 3343 ^: y 1 1 ^^- -'•''-\. V- MZIT / / r J ( fk- 1 MEII y / ^ r' 1 p:cm = MVII ^CM>S F 1 MSII 1 -- 5^C - 1 ' '"■ 1 i '. 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M VZ M SZ, M 9Z M IL M 8Z M 6Z M 08 M 18 M 28 M E8 M VQ M S8 M 98 M LB M 88 M 68 M 06 M 16 M 26 M £6 M V6 M S6 M 96 M L6 M 86 M 66 00 CM ,—1 s 05 c» r^ CD 10 (T) CO to CO CM CM CM CM CM (M .-• CM CM CM 81 ^tN t ,• - «+•'" «;<»1 «,•- ^ ■—»■■■ ■ F I r-iV- ';in s l" ■» ft i" - jjcn -5 +- 1" 1 -•i ^." >" ^"vi"' a^ ^> ^ts; - 10 in sV- -.10 « ," ' 1 !•'; +■ ''■ ?.ID 1 1 ^00 ft ," - ft ,-°' ft ,"«> ^i+-- "■.ID W^'r^ St-^-* + + I'm aIN . t-S : . -to ^^"^ - r ■ -1- " ' '"7 -f«t _„< R i" "^ '■■CO f in 1 ft l" -^ ft +- «> o F ■ro " 1 1 est " 1 ;" 1" ■» s^ „,jS) ft_« -! Si +- "> ft ,' •» ft ," •" ■■;'» ft i" ^' 01(0 ft,'- ^< ~^ .„cn. sin 1 - r " F a +• ^ -CD coin -.CO 1 !3« ■> 1 -•CD .5 ,• » i(D ft ,- •" ft ,' '^ °!'^c. ft~ m^- c-ifVJ " 1 -j^ 1 1 !5 i" '- r5 i" 0. fi, i' - ft 1" - ft ,■ - _C\j Si ,- - ft |- - ^10 ft ,■ '- CO ID ft ,-2 \ ^N - - "74; - - ■\\n - +* ~ ^ 1 S 1' - Si i" '"■- c.in 1 = in ^ S ,■ - ^ s F CT.^ ft,- = ft ," = " +- - ft 10 ^^•■•^ k^ ^ c.{D -\ tcO> 1 " 1" ~ '■-■■«* 1 '■' 1" " " 1 S i" - "■■^ ^ colS 1 ti°2 = 1 . in „ R i" - -:tM " 1' " SS,-' cr-m ft ,-» ^ 1 " o;(D ft ," "= L, -^ ~'7 -C3) ^ " i" - ^v- F " 1 J. CO 93-;- 1 CO-* F F "-.M ^ c.-.|a ov ft l" «= s7- SJ+." ' 1 ^01 " 1 ft i' - *^in V fez ^r-" --(*: 1 8 |-" Si,-- com " 1" "" Si 1" •- -1^ ^' 1' " Ri i" " Ri i" - Si i' ■" 'OS Si +■ ■^ coC^ 1 .,-Wft^ = ^^ s-V^ cr.fs. _ .^03 1 en ID 1 c-«* 1 aoD ^ Ri i" - u;CO _ " i" " coco _ Si +• - ft«rf 1 " 1 " ?i^-- 5 "A c J J, - S ~ ^-^ r ■"CO ^ 1 '■■^ " +" ■■■' Ri 1"- t ■^ in „, ^' r " r-lD si " Ki 1" '^ 2> o;C0 Si +■ "■ .^ rifi ^\ TV V ■^■^-r-LJ-; )|^ " 1 r5 i" <» I " ft l" - Si i" - =^ ^?/ U N '■03 " r '■' •"in S, i" - = 1M 1 R l" " «:=. "in J k«^ / A ^ T -■7. IjsS- 'iJOO a™'" S3+" » ""* 0, c ":--., ?j " di:OQvp :;::,:;fl=:: /*i;: W'^^ q sg \ ~"^ S+" " s^ ■=!CM ^ ?i l" - ?: +' - / / I / ^ k ";in 5^ ?i y ■■■' Si ,- "1 ■^ hi T — -J \ --^ ^" r f5 +- ■■■' S" co^ t/ Z^ -tj^ •) r ? ::: i-^' r" S +■ -. r-n '■-■OD J r -^N i) V .-" a ~ com (jIM 57 tJ:'"! s ,• '- pro '"■■+ ■ s +■ - \f 1 ~ "* "+' " ^> V \'- coW ftr4'- f h :i / " 1' " 05(0 01 in ^^ 0(0 -CM 05^ Si ,' ■" V ^"^ -V ^ ^ 1 " r ■" o;Ln 3 +" ■" «;iD j^ CO CM ^in Si ,- = ":•*,- ^^,'- r Eg ^^ O O "-■ (X " (J = D_ uj oE id z: «" z Ll_ LU UJ -p •-- ac CE 1- V 4 1 0.^ ^J -s s,-- "0> Si ,- = 1 \.; foGD si i" - ^7° iv- { V ^ St"" »■<* -+■- S3,-' . 0 1 cn|>. s";?- -ID 'ooo Ki (ri •■-' 1 '■- ■ — , ^7" 1 1 ^+"^ -0 #, Si 1* - 0.^ % 'f^ S 1" - !S (»?'■■ F -IS y ^> ^^''' rt ■■ 5^ -^' ^ ,0 , M 09 M T9 M Z9 M £9 M VQ M S9 M 99 M Z,9 M 89 M 69 M 0Z M \L M ZZ M ez M fZ M SZ M 9Z M ZZ M 8Z M 6Z M 08 M 18 M 28 M £8 M ^8 M S8 M 98 M Z8 M 88 M 68 M 06 M T6 M 26 M £6 M 1^6 M S6 M 96 M Z6 M 86 M 66 en CO CO IT) cn on CO (M .^ 00 ro 82 JV^ — n 2 i" - ,_, S +" '- ^:sai::::::;:: -ID S i" >"' 1 isiso;;:;;;;; " l" " ".OD rS l" " -IM mm S;!!*=E s +.• " -in ,, ':C0 V 1" •" ^ 1" " -CM ^ 1" CD :k|S:»:;,: s; i" f 1 a u5 '■■• 1 ?+•"■• 3i''\ S i" » dV-s -CO 1 -Si 1 co(M " 1 r ,E1 lain a l" •■■■ a CO f:i ,- - a 1* -> Sv5:p ^ |'-« i'^-- -V" ■^^ 2 l" - ".CM ;; i" ■= J 5!N 1 1 '" r '' -PO ■3 +." " coQ h' :.te Sot " 1 ?1 + - si™-- „0) 1 Si +■ - ■2; -00 ■' r ■" 55 i" - \ \ ;i4s= 2,-S " 1 1 '" [' " Ei i" - ^ ,■ o> s +■ t-- CI. IS " 1 f; i" •> V- a i" i" ^=00 S l" - ) ;4.C0:...:... .«.M..;.,. > s ^' i' " iS-4-* 1 ?°2 fi^- ""is •'.ai '"' +' '■' 1 mifi a i" -^ '-"* "•{'•' S +" '''■ i-iin '" 1' '■■' 'iCO ■5 1" i" iv" ^ l" cr. 'iPO c^ ,■ - ^i |- ■" S 1' - *+-"" ;_ai- : S--: it- ■'■' 1 :.(.■:■ syi:^ ^7- !0^ 1 a 1' '■■ ^ l" «■ »;C0::;: S i" - "-; to ,^ 5!|-- V- - 1 ^^. "CD ■■■; El a +" - a l" ■■' ■icn OU3 Ri i" ■•■' '•51a men ft ,■ - 1 ■: = CM 7: +• ■- " 1" - S i" '- S i" - -^ + T : i,.^ ..: p. ^"^2 Si i" -• Ki +■ - a r- ci - ^.'^■'^ ;5 |-^ S|-" '•5 i" " iS S 1' - lil -03 S*^:"' _^_ - T ^ \ F ^^E3 ".in a i" - "■' l' " 8 i" '-■ = in Si"" iT"" S|'" "i i' - ^;ID S 1" " ai:N;;=: cDja S i" "^ ■•'■■:|=- I " l" " + r "CO '"+■■" in " i' " " CvJ r " 1 -ro 1° " 1' ~ ■-co " 1" ° ;C0 ' ' "^ ,0 / S|-- t V + 1 '"+" " -w^ TO r ' 1 '" i' ~ " 1 + .ptO " 1' ~ = 00 - ,■-, c CD iCO ^ l' ,/. u-.(M a" i7-°i \ ■«; + "in TO ^ ^ l' ~ "- r ro 1 r J s: -7/ —^~^] ,^ j 1 f ^ 5 "^ ■■■' s +■ - fS i" «■ "&}- i - ?i-t.' - " r ~ 9. ' V ' = in Sj i" - '5i ," "-' Sj 1* " " 1 " 1 Sri--- 1 ~v^ "^ i^i :3 2"* (D / ^■1 1 ""-J \(. \ rv = St' " 'S, i" - SJ+-- 3 7^-' f. " 1 ...y s " 5«« / 'O ^ ■te ■-^ mm " t "" "":'"-„ -]■- Si^- r; ^" " ?iV^ cS i" ■» =: 1 : / 1 i7- 7 ^] "^ \ u 4^< ~IM " )■ "* i7" s ,-Y •^ C\J ,, , "CO J idOJ 53^ .•■ 1 k^ s-^ ~ 'T* ^^ „•: I-.,;.,.. f. + 1 i am S|-- V ^ -Q^ '} r s--^ J-" ' s i- " s +• s -tn r --^ >y \/ X " 1' ""' com 'J i" "i ^■'° c" 3 1 ■ '" «csi; ; 1 '^ c;lo S |- " M 1 "<^ ID a i" '■' ?; i' - c^Q ?i ,• - "; 1 * ff2 Si i" - V'-^ :i / > s ,■ •■' a i" - -PO ?j|- = -co 53^':' 1 t'Csl 1 o;I» '" r " \ '-■ — ..__ — ^ 1 f'lNJ ,-.EI S|-- si ,■ - ">■" » c^;ir) S-j 1 ■ " aro ,. V Eg ^5 iiii §1 "- s=" ijj S g^>: ^g too = Uu LlJ liJ S CE 1- §0- cc V 55 ,■" S+' " S+-3 "■' "^ ,n s ,■- ?; 1' ■» Si l' CO ( '~----. — ->, ^v^- S"2 = '-' + ?^7- »C^ !3m - 1 CD (9 '^ 1 c-.rj : CCJi t -ro ^ "lO " l' o|s " 1' ■" ir.cn- ■ 5Sc4 1 '-■CO CO(\ " 1 C' o ) ^ +' 13 , I CP -5 c-ai 1 1 V, ~— , f 1 in r ~ in J3 1 1 1 ""■^ s "+' " 1 -CD + " \' " i " i' " ^ ro in " +' \ \ ->> '••;C0 S|-- 0^ l"^ .3® S i" - fin'-" 1 X 1 V-. tj- t"" rt ., cnfsl --^^ J M 09 M 19 M 29 M £9 M 79 M 99 M 99 M 19 M 89 M 69 M U M IZ M Zl M EZ M 7L M SZ M 9Z M LL M 8Z M 6Z M 08 M 18 M 28 M e8 M ^8 M S8 M 98 M LQ M 88 M 68 M 06 M 16 M 26 M £6 M 76 M 96 M 96 M Z6 M 86 M 66 CO LD -«t n (M ,_i la en CD r- CO [D ■>* CO Csl ^H s en 00 C-v CO LO ■^ CO (M ,_, S ■^ - sieii "'- * ^I 1 + ^ ^ +• + + ^ i^ 1 " 1 tap- = 10 k!;-'" = «*■;■■ airM;;?; -OD Si+" ■"' " 1" " -CQ ?i +■ •- ^5 +." '■■ ■ ID ^< \ ■^ 1 -01 - l' ■" 1 1 ' l" ""■ 1 1 C''- '■' r '" .i-.lO ^ l" ^ S3 +" '••' Uli-!*,..,.. ^v- t,C0;4 0 l' »> Si 4." " ";(M " 1" "' Si ,- >» \ \^ % +■ s";^- ^7~ Si l" " ft+" - siro ft i' '■■' o Si ,- 5fn S5 1" '^ u;CM ) -'.^, -CO - 1 + -in 1 ,.,r.. IS CO 55 l" "^ ■.fO 1 IS 00 ^i +■ " ■' i"- " +" "' f, ,- '- ;^ i""^ + -f V -+0 ' ' Sco - 1 a CO '•■• 1 + -in s ,• - -CD Si ^" •" i,-;in- ;Ln ?5 ^" "J l\J OS Si +' <^ ^i+-- ""icn ?i+-- Si,-- -IM , Si ,- 1- ^ B3ES== 2^ '_ l" " ,Cr) . J Sen ": + 1 CM "1+ ' «>CN '■•IM -CM 05 CM "i'i- aKL . iV-" ''■.CM Si+" »> •■^ ...in. . StM"' 1 -ro ^03 + + f:- -CO ,^ ::^«* :: ft,-J---i 1 Si +■ '■- «_ =.CM : o;S Si |- I- ^ ."^3 ^a - : ■ + "'+■ " S +■ '^ ■a(D ;t; i' •-•" .--j^ S,-' i,-,„*t;,„.,. 4«- ft +• - ■»ID «61 «6» . n-.:rM !•• • ,=5 .^' 05 -J 4- ft:-;,-" '■+' ^ ^w ""' + • +' ' ' + ' ^ ^ 1 2 ^" t- moo "+'" -CJ) -lO 1 •ilD ■Si CD SIX) n +• " ft,-" si+-- -CD '■■CM Si,-- ^7-" } - "■10 Si,-- \ w 1 -"CJ! ^;CO ft +■ "^ ^;6J. - '.1 ^. . _C0- - ' + ^V'^ 1 "' ■!• ' ^.co "i +' -^ \ W'- Sir!?!; f J +." - f-CM J. " l" - ■^ ■ - «CM - ':(0 ■^0) 05 ro ^'in 00. S5+-" X ■iJlO r^ loS- + ^(0 ft-* "+" ^' "■'" m 'iCO 57 = i-CO ft^'' 1 , Si ,- "= =i(M „ s7i \ ^ r -"J g- -;co ^ to ID i - ~in <^'° -^^ r \: ¥^... V ^^, > J > f^ -CM '*in 5;;;- i - unOO Si i" - S5|-- '^ *f/' 1 i\. !3^ '^ + I -^ .^'^'^ ./ j"^ V ^i;-' cn(\J Ip- c^^ # / n K) h ■--, ...eo- ; f5+' - S7-f3 ?i 1" - ■ 1 ftt- Si 1' / 3 -CM ?iV- 03 -fl -0, * = in g +■ ■" ^;CM "1 \ — ^ 1 '(O Si+-'" -+■ = si^.-' V "CD GC uj Ln ^ ^7'= ■i. CM u:. -■-< - ■*■" -0) !S,-~ CO U I-U5 S+-" S 1" '■■ ftCM V CO SO) ^lD ?i+.-» 9in ft CM"' p am: 5.C0 ftCM- »GX.: Z l-l-l Z IjJ □_ B ^ - "u- *£' ' Tn = Li_ LU UJ +" " + sV' " 1' ■" =»oo .• ., ■■:: KOD i .. N^ i-*'" SCM'-' / ^ 1^ rb , .-^ ";(0 ■>* 00 CM .,_, S 01 CO t-- (a Ln -<* CO (M ,_, s O) 00 t^ CD in ■^ CO CM ,-( ■^ ■«* ■^ '^ ->!f (10 CO CO CO CO 00 CO CO CO CO CM CM (M (M (M CM CM CM (M 84 'V- toxj- __ -fJ - ■r,(D + SO) 4- ' ^ r "■ -CO F ' +' '^ '^ l' " -in f; l' in jro ■i l' " ft ,- " f\ t-isa - I, U5 :,».«;(■-....... F "in ^ ^ +" " 1^^'^ ./■CD t-CD >3 1- - St-" ;(0 ft+-- -Si"- 'CD CO(\J ft l' '•' »oi 1 ft"* ft i" " ft I- ■'■ if. Sir^fl; ~J'"< :;s:^-: } 1 i4.6t.,4. 0=0) SI l'«> SjMipj .-;{0 aia- irSs;;;:; T i" " -UJ J CO % l" " ^ f' '■' t^=-:. "^ro F F =%=■= h ^^ ,,n6J- . ■ +- U5 a, CM " +' " io(D -cJ F CO F l,_. _^. „ SCO ft +■ » ilia " i' " *j+" " «crj •J 1 " cO i^..'i:: = <») iv" ■0) ft,-" o3|-- ft i" - T = 4(. itb-s . .^Cs, . -CO ^ - 1" " "IS fffci^: -Cvl ^7-- l" '" en ' f' "' V (M ':;7«' ft ,■- ft i" ^ S|-» 44 ''i ^T^"' \ - i" " ;.M.*=i..i:.. ^V^- = ■«* '^ro S i" - iin tS i" >" 05 f^ * 3; 1/5 IS in ft i' " oCD ft l' ~ -CD ft l' '- ) ^,cn ^CM, , 2 +" - -en ' i" " "CO ~IM ^ S3 l" - u-.QJ ~+' " iCO ft l" '■- .-■CO ft l' ■■• f^ i- •» ii>rsj ftr4 - Sf-^ \ ~ 1 F min a.^. «+■- "+"" t~.CD a i" -• S l" " -.Q JJO) ft +■ =» »ro ^7'' ft ,"- f^V-" ft ,- = " i' '- ft ,- » '■:(n ) -s ,3 - i" " -TO ^ St-- ^7^^ *.«...t.. ft +■ "^ ft+-s "'■ "^ in ft+' - "+' " 1-CO ft ,-- ft,-" '••CO ^7^ '& i" ■" \ 2 +' - ^i+ ' ' 1 °^ ^-JO..;...; sffl;;;;;;; I3+' 00 CO i..Rl..;... ri 2 ";(M „ " i" - ftin _, ft i" - ';CM 3°°.- <-'+'' ^;in ^ t^ 03 1/5 ^ 12 ,' - 2 i" 'i "iin ft l" - -J CD '■•in ft 1 ■ ' - .■?...,::.:::: tr.CD _ ft l' - ""^ - sk;;;;;;; S3;s:;;h I. <, 2 !"•- f.Lf> F '^HJ 20D ,. ^ro "":co ,, ■SO) ir-OO Si,-- s (■ - w+ - KG);;;;; gw;a t - ",': "* f.. / sob;;;;;;; = = V jE;1?>:;k:; 1/1(0 _ - l'" 1 '"T »J» - - (-Ifti... Q^ o^CM f5+" - ft+-- r-CCJ !oin ft i" '- - -"1 ,.. !5 +" - OS CD s;cn 1^ + ^'5- ::::::::,::= E3 -^ 1, ms. CD ^' f' ~ ft> " CD ^. ft l' - - F " l" - '?1 V ^ /-*-s^ SH! Bx-iHI , 1 fS l' - i7^ " i" " -;cn „ ft +" - ^ ft ^." - ^' l' ~ -J' ■^ro,. -... \ ^, ^r ~^'^ ^ 1 « F^- 1 ^7^ u-.^ -LD ->a- •,•,»-.. ri .- ft ,- - ft +." -• ~^ "^;«;i - 'aj;!-!- '+ + i-i- c ^^i \ coco _^ B i" - ft+' - ft+-- !?7" -■ ^- ,.-, s^j U^y 1 /r + \^ \ \ V R+" - -CO ^ ft l" " 1 ft ^." - ^F» Sfm" + . / s ^ f7 ^'^7^ /) 2 ^v7 f:i i" - F ft i" - f? ,■ = "■"^ in ■" r " ""<^ in " l' " "5 i' " " f' " ] / V ^ V, Q k ft+-°. -CM „ ft+ - ft,-- ^T ^m ^ IS CD / 1 h"^ si s V^ \ a f^ "^ ~^- r^ s ^ .cm] r\ ' I P ;3 ^0 ^-«t I (n 3 - r- S-^ i_^ r^ f.in 1 ft,-- ■-CM ~+ 1 !' <=■«* W F r ^^ i> ^ S /-^ + ft,-^ ', 1 -fJ5 " +' ^n4 \f ^ ; ocn 1- l' in -CM ^ ■" l' 1- '"in ^ 1 i" " (M li / \ ^JO cO-t " CO f" 1 „a3 F coG) •Srvj - J 1 -.CD f' + + ^ — -^ '( "CD "' f' s-t-. f' " 1 p ^ - CO t' inro ifin . f "'CD tt LU S zg CEg -< >-< L±J U- LU "- 2=:] lij e = u. UJ lij 1 HH |_ X O Q_ CE V V „E0 F tot»- ^ F° + F -"3 F /_ 1 " in +' CD 1 " F F " F viui F F O) sV >^ oia ft+-- oCD F in!M „ '"cri F -,E»- in o f 7 ^ F CQ -itn F »CQ ^ ■ — 1 to s . ft +■ ' +■ to F + 1 irpO ^ -to TtO" F -03 1° ca 1 "CO S_u5 ID ft ,■- ft i" >" ^+■"■1 4- ri7- iaiiSiE fS art5'~ f BiMS oCO F ft i" >" X 1^. ft t- - / 1 ^Is- ^•^ n^ . ^ — ^ - M 09 M 19 M Z9 M £9 M 1^9 M S9 M 99 M £9 M 89 M 69 M 0Z M \L M ZZ. M ez, M VL M SZ M 9Z M ZZ M 8Z M 6Z M 08 M 18 M 28 M £8 M ^8 M S8 M 98 li Z8 M 88 M 68 M 06 M 16 M Z6 M £6 M 1^6 M 96 M 96 M Z6 M 86 M 66 CM —• CO CO en CO en in CO CD CM --> on tn S) CM CO CM CM CM in CM CM cn CM CM — < CM CM IS) CM 85 S\aj . 2 i" " 1 03 C^ '•t •-00 ,^ ~ l" ' -•in ^ l" ' C7. .^ Si i" >" 3 +■ ■" '••.tn ir*- ':i» '^fv 1 ;ID ^5 ,■« >," + 'S l" i" T 1 1 •■; 1 1 X 1' ^' iv- "j i" " iS^-'- Jin ~. i" " / Vj^r^ 3S^ - l'" bjCSJ 1 '■'+■ ■ " 1 2 }■ ^2 + .i(r) -CM oCO -CD '■' + OJCVJ mm 3 l" ■" £;«)i:= -fjwfn:::: K! r4 "^ 1 -;ia ^^7- ■5 r " i i" ' 1 "T 4i ^ *(n. . nS - cj>cn - -W- - -■«f H r4 J" ■=;in -ID rCvl ;5 i' '■' ' r " Ki^- mm -;in _ a ," - Stsi :■ + t + + \ V > " 1 ^(n - „h. . cJ^.-..: ^!C0 ^ 3 +■ - otCO.i... ' +' " k; i' -" ^■U) S+-- '■CN4 ■-en OS ft i""' -;m „ r: - +' ~ "■ i\. =» |- lO S i" " - +' " 1 -in ,- i" - ■ + " Q^ -CM ■^ l"' S i' ""' Ki +• " SC i" " »CSI u;in S (■ - ii i" "' " 1' " ; 2+' S'^s - +' ~ - r ~ -oo ua - - + V " +■ ■^ ''■' ' '"' ==0D Ki+ " -05 ^ ^ t" " =iin „ -co „ !5^" - - l' " ^ - 1 " ioS- - U.JO- . «-^- . ' +■ ■■•' ,■■,>.. . -to - -fl ■^ ro „^ ffi i' - cr-in S i" - Mn 1 ^' r " m ■■-' 1' '" ^7= ' + + + \ ij^ "7 -+ " S i" - <=-ia -^- -ID 'iS ';ln f5 +■ •" '•5 i' " .■:.„|,:::.,:: -en ft,-" V 4 -:>J«:,,,,, ^U3 - OJUJ - l' "' i7- F + ' E5 .^' •■■1 ?j +■ - "'■ "^ CO = C73 S +■ ' «slM - < ; •«: . ^V^" Si^- 55 1" - ( ShJ':' Stti:'? + + ^ 1 '^ 1 te" mm .^.- )/ A u V 1 S +' - •JJHO Oil*- - S> »IS - f" c.V' f /^ s 0 f^ " \ a+" - 2";^= S+ "■ i^CO men i-cn >4.- ■ / / J V \ "■ 1 1 ?j i" -" ';CD i?T '-'in S ,-2 55 +• ] / ^^ r - — ^-, V \ ij-j*-fr ^"" s -' /' 'J 1 s: nJ moD S V ••■' [? ^ -Q^ 4j. r l-^' " 1 " 1 Si 1 ■ " I, '^m ^ r — -, ^\ vV K. Scd-? '-' +' "■ 1 f5 l" i" \ \ ft i" "" \ / "1 S "•' if;,-- racvj'-' 1 Si ^.'^ org F ""^ li / 3 1 s!;-- L'i |- - !5 +■ ~ !5 l" ' -ID 1 1 ^ ^^- — ,, — -^ ^ / 1 mUJ f3 l" " 1 »0Q Si,- 2 1 .:, l,::,-„: T}- ^ ^9. ^ t-; ^ N_ => Eg ^^ = Li_ LjJ lu V \ ' i" '' •^ l' " « ,• S SCO -tn !0t^ 1 r V »;in 1 'V = !ocn '"JcJ'- QCD ^-i ,■- n --f '^7- 1 :::::: | 0 ] 3 i" - " 1 : 1 >~ — -, i^ ^7- "1 t-CO rj i" ■" =ilD •>yi Vt.. - c-.S : 1 ■.. ^m/1 \+ + §r^- =oao F3r4' 1 f\ " 1" '" S fi -1 ^v ^ ^ ^ rh -^ z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z Z Z C7) CO CD on co CD CO 00 CO CD CO CM CO CO CO CD CM 00 CM C\J CO Csl CM CM CO CM CM CM CM CM 86 '° i'' ■s^--a. 2 1* - i>Lf)...1.4 "1(10 " +" " JJID 4! i' -• c-lD ^.i> ^;-t(:;::;; -t^ Sim:;;:;; M 09 4.10- -oitpi,-;.- a |. ,., c=» c--lri - - EI cri ? : 3 +" "'' 2 OJ <-^, ^pk,;:::::; 2 ^;;?^; i ^^ '■' :»(0 :1 +■ "■ jvjj..„ S i" " 3 i" - a i' " " 1 ;0O 'i 1' "> -.(%. *;,"» fit"- M 19 n(JJ «w -,N ;0 '" 1 ' " co^ -ID i.-S-;.., 1 vclD ^ 1 acvj'-! I--- -cn ■-I- '; i" 'o M Z9 u ^ ._" ' 1' " a,-- an.--. oi+-- H 69 ?jr\j'^ '/l^-■■■• + + ■i+-i i I, 1. ^o> - 01® ci 2 .J." - ■^■^ s coOD c^fSl w-Ctf-i- "'+" CO 10 J El 3 IS ""■ 0, 1 ■ f^ lol/J a i" <" a i" ■-' 2 ^-^ M ez, 'f +TT cn(D ^ 2 ,■ - ^ CO - 1 " 1 ro ^ n ■■- OLD a+" " i - a i" - ■-lit-. ^ ■ C7) fj 1 -.to „ a i" - c^jr-i. ,:;::ij:;::;: '?i M 71 iy:™::s 1=::-:: k ^ ,^--^_ 2ro^ CI CD 53 l"- 01 CD 5 Stttl-U a7« ' 1' '" ^;a;;:;:: ^'-° .-^ -^ ^-? -- M SZ V ccj.*c*»::.*':.' \: \ ■Q_. r-.^ -^' -W-L^l ■ J -'f. •\ ^ ■ CO c;'«t- - ■uC!j;;5 + ^ 1 i.jrt...;... 3 i" '■•' " 1' " tt;^ - __. «i:«*:;;i: *!:j4i M 9Z C- t\ N V 4.' - "CO .n-CD- - ■■;ia '": "^ 2 *^ ^J ^— .'^ ^ ^7;/ /'Y M ZZ 'x f3 ,■-' 1 ID ' r ''■' oEl- - iO-fi - atlft,: + C -^y S» :^ M 9Z 0 ig "'--,, V X '"CM ai t^ a 1° ■■' a 1 ■ " a +■ «> i^ - t~Ln a 1" ■'•■ 1 / M 6Z / V \ k io-B-; 'J;CO ^''■'' y^^ ^n-i. / coco M 08 '■' + V i..^..V ■ *^ 1-^ s-^ X 1 \ \ \ -^ r^ ir.Ul a +■ 1' n ' 1 M 18 [/ ^ ^0^ '1 r ____^ 5 — ' yncu: S:CJ .' ' + c.co ; i 1 ' " a 1" - ' r n M Z8 1 >. ■\/ V- tor^ "in , a +■ - ctj-^ris: \ -1 Ri .+" <■' caiO M 88 \( ~ ""[ "^ a +■ - ^j i" - Pi^ - F M 78 li / J- ,d.,'!*..,i ■otic H:|Si;=i 1 a i" - ^ 4-5 'O '" 1 \ a i" ■» sEi a 1° "' <-.0D- M 98 ^. ■'-■■ — -, — -^ r' \ UJ»- 05 CM ' 1" '■ .-in -J :,47,,- ctjtvj ) + ,*CD a "J ,-- a i" - ii?" M 98 ^1 1^ >.§ Pi^T- '^f1?:- A 'I,-^ ?: \ »> <"+" "■ a i" - f C!l(\i a +" '■" I V... M Z8 ( ta'**: ; eW: 3 +" » a'* _ s l" - \ M 88 "" t3 tty i-j 1 ?' -sf : '? fl^m;^ Szg erg -^ -- LiJ "- uj >> q: CE (r 1,1 z LL. LlI LU ;p ^- § CL o: + + ^ V x^^r »ID F 01 ^ ^^ »,S„; , M 68 CD CO u 1 +' " t,-,pj a+.-- ■ j M 06 in -rvi 1 " 1 M 16 1 1 -S 1° o,-«!( M 26 \ ~ 1 CO -ID 1 M £6 l^ ,!D ~ 1 otS. 1" " stD:::: iP«:l M 1^6 M 96 p i> 1 a^ M 96 L t rb \ cats --^^ '-■ M Z6 M 86 3 * 2 : 2 : 2 t Cr t -5 : 2 5 ^ J : 2: 2: (T 2: oc z: cr 2 (IT : 2 ) ir ) or : 2: ) cr 2 cr or : z ) (\ ) cr : 2 1 — ) or : 2 * (S ) cr '. 2 3 a 5 Cv : 2 1 oc J c\ : 2 ) r- J CN : 2 a J r> : 2 ) If J (N : 2 ) -<: J CV : 2 J Pv : 2 : 2 J - J (V : 2 ^ cs J c\ . M 66 J 87 Section 3 ATMOSPHERIC CLIMATOLOGY AND ITS EFFECT ON SEA SUBFACE TEMPERATURE - 1975 Robert E. Dickson^ and Jerome Namias^ During 1975, stronger than normal westerly flow continued to dominate much of the Northern Hemisphere at middle and high latitudes, in keeping with the general circulation tendency of the previous four years (Namias and Dickson 1976) . However, although this general tendency may have been maintained, there were also marked differences in the strength, axial position, and seasonal occurrences of these westerlies, compared with earlier years. Figu heig inde feat Nort prin rela but in t the stre east ncrt Amer obse the more with (-m aero Thus thes re 3.1 il ht and X years, ure of h America cipal s tively hi low amp he annual Beauf or ngthened ern lim hwesterli ica . In rved at m west Atla intense a deep m) ] to ss the in contr e streng lustrates t its anomal the augment the oceanic and Asia, trengthenin gh latitude litude anom mean] comb t and Be westerlies b of the es flowing the Atla id-latitude ntic and no [+110 ft (3 upper le induce vig European su ast to prec thened wes he mean annual distribution of 700 mb y during 1975. As in the previous high €d westerlies are shown to be chiefly a areas, with a relatively slack flow over Unlike these earlier years, however, the g of the westerlies took place at s. Over the North Pacific an extensive aly ridge at mid-latitudes [ + 90 ft {2~i m) ined with a weak upper level trough over ring Seas [-50 ft (-15 m) ] to direct to the south of the Aleutians; along the mid-latitude ridge, these turned to along the western seaboard of North ntic sector extensive ridging was also s but was split into two main cells over rthwest Europe. The eastern cell was the 2 ra) in the annual mean] and combined vel trough over the Barents Sea [-140 ft orous westerlies from South Greenland barctic seas to Norway and arctic Russia, eding years (Namias and Dickson 1976) , terlies were not the result of an in situ ^Visiting Scientist froir the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Focd Fisheries Laboratory, Lowestoft, Suffolk, England. 2Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA 92037. 89 Section 3 tandem intensification of subpolar lows and subtropical anticyclones (the North Pacific and North Atlantic oscillations), but were the product of coupling between intensified ridging at mid-latitudes and a single polar trough. The seasonal and latitudinal variations in westerly wind strength in 1975 are shown in Figure 3.2 in the form of 2onal averages of the westerly component of the mean geostrophic wind (m/sec) over the Northern Hemisphere from 25N to 85N and from OW to 180W (from Wagner 1976b) . A comparison of this figure with the similar figure for 1974 (Wagner 1975a) confirms the general tendency for a shift in the westerly wind belt towards slightly higher latitudes in the later year. As in 1974 the westerlies were at their most intense in the winter season (+4 m/sec at mid- latitudes during January and February) though this has not necessarily been a uniform feature of the five high-index years since 1971. Table 3.1 compares the mean westerly component of the geostrophic wind over the North Pacific sector (35-55N, 130E-110W) in each season of the period 1971-75 with that observed during the relatively low-index years 1947-1966. As shown, although the vigor of the circulation increased in all seasons, the greatest westerly intensification tended to occur in spring within this sector with a progressively smaller mean increase in summer, winter, and fall. Table 3.1. Mean zonal component of the geostrophic wind at 700 mb level, 35-55N, 130E-110W, during 1947-66 and 1971-75 (m/s) . 1947-66 9.83 1971-75 10.13 Difference + 0.30 8.64 9.32 + 0.68 6.00 6.45 + 0.45 9.63 9.70 + 0.07 W i n te r Spring Summer Fall The mean annual distribution of Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in 1975 (Fig. 3.3b) was once again the expected reflection of the relatively high -index circulation in that sector. Across the northern North Pacific from Japan, south of the Aleutians to the British Columbia coast, the track of the strengthened westerlies is marked by a zonal belt of abnormally cold water with core anoiralies of - 1 . 6F (central ocean) and -2.5F (at the North American doast) . In fact, this distribution shows a closer relationship to the circulation of the winter season, when the westerly circulation was most strongly developed, than to the mean circulation of the year as a whole, and it is envisaged that these cool oceanic conditions were maintained 90 primarily through th cold-frontal activity, upwelling) of the winter warm water was maintai core anomalies exceeding the expected developmen horizontal oceanic conve high pressure anomaly year, northerlies runnin were responsible for surface temperatures at as a result of enhan (Eakun, Section 6) . e enhanced and Ekman di season. To th ned across the + 1 . 3F in the a t under the lig rgence which wo cell at mid- g along the eas the regenerati the North Ameri ced coastal u westerlies, cy verge nee (with e south a zonal central North Pa nnual mean. Aga ht winds, clear uld be associate latitudes. Thro tern flank of on and maintenan can seaboard, pwelling and hea Section 3 clonicity , open-ocean pool of cific with in this is skies, and d with the ugh out the this cell ce of cool presumabl y t exchange The above discussion has purposely emph or "regeneration" of surface temperatur than the establishment of these feature preceding year was one of even great result, the surface temperature anomaly reflect the antecedent condition of th well as contemporary forcing. Compari anomaly distributions cf 1974 and 1 that similar distributions of surface these tiic high-index years with the nor SST anomaly pattern in 1975 arising thr shift of winds and pressure belts in th asized the "maintenance" e anomalies in 1975 rather s. The circulation of the er westerly vigor and as a distribution of 1975 must e ocean's thermal field as ng the mean annual SST 975 (Fig. 3.3) it is clear temperature characterized thward displacement cf the ough the slight poleward at year. Equivalent mean annual surface temperature data for the North Atlantic as a whole are not yet conveniently available; however, variations in surface temperature anomaly over the west Atlantic are described below in the discussion of seasonal changes. The seasonal changes of 700 mb height anomaly and surface temperature anomaly over the ocean areas flanking the United States are described in Figure 3.U. In general, over the eastern North Pacific, the seasonal changes in circulation about the annual mean were not responsible for any radical seasonal shifts in the "preconditioned" surface temperature field. Some greater seasonal variability in SST anomaly was generated however over the western Atlantic. During wint Western He during any noted that were around averaged ne that month Hemisphere was the sec latitude o er (December 19 misphere attai other season of along the axi 5 m/s stronger arly 10 m/s abo the mid-lati equalled that o ond strongest m f maximum zonal 74- February 1 ned a greate 1975. In Ja s of the uppe than norma ve normal acr tude zonal f February 19 onthly index ity mild mari 975) the westerl r anomalous inte nuary, Wagner r westerlies ". 1 over the Pa OSS the Atlantic index for the 74 (13.3 m/s) wh of record. A time influences ies of the nsity than 1975b:360) . . speeds cific and . . ."In Western ich itself round the penetrated m Section 3 far into northern North Airerica and Eurasia. At lower latitudes the northward expansion and intensification of the subtropical anticyclones led to a weakening of the subtropical westerlies aloft, resulting in the mean windspeed profile shown in Figure 3.5 (from Wagner 1975b). During February, the fast zonal flow began to break down, but nevertheless over the eastern Pacific the seasonal mean of 700 rab height still indicated a sizeable anomaly gradient of over 290 ft (88 m) between 30N and 60N at 170W (Fig. 3.4) . As already described, the anomaly is largely in k and a similar basic patter 1975. However certain which are peculiar to each drawn to the tongue of from the main warm center appears to be out of keep in this area. In fact thi events in the antecedent anomaly cell centered over warm surface conditions th Dickson 1976). Thus while winter did not entirely were responsible for a retraction of this warm-wa underlying zonal distribution of SST eeping with this high-index circulation E will be encountered in all seasons of differences of detail may be described season. In winter our attention is warm water which extends northeastward towards the Gulf of Alaska and which ing with the northwesterly anomaly wind s situation is a partial reflection of season (fall 1974) when an anticyclonic the American west coast had generated roughout the Gulf of Alaska (Namias and the northerlies of the succeeding eradicate these warm conditions, they substantial weakening and southward ter tongue. In the distrib warm co conditi readily pattern brought former this c northwe northwe west ution nditio ons ( ex pi ; a 1 enhan area, ell w ster ly stern ern Atlant was domin ns (>+2F) o >-2F) off icable in ccalized up ced souther but coupl as also r flow from Atlantic . ic the winter surface t ated by the contrast between ff the southern U.S. seaboard the Canadian Waritimes. Aga terms of the prevailing c per- level ridge off the Atlanti lies and warm surface condition ed with a trough over southern esponsible for directing arctic Canada toward the labrad emperature abnormally and cold in this is irculation c seaboard s to the Greenland, a strong or Sea and Althcug during general circula the Fac its f o norther respons the Hoc cycloni area, r United h fa Ware we a tion if ic rmer ly e, kies c ce esul St a St z h, t keni in sub an anom the thr nter ting tes. onal flow he sjgrin^ ng of the to a more tropical omalous aly airf weak up oughout t s crossin in dep and en contin season zonal meridi anticyc amplitu low ov per-lev he wint g the P ressed couragi ued over the Western Hemisphere as a whole was characterized by a flew and an amplification of the onal pattern. In March and April, lone moved east while retaining de, resulting in a more direct er the western seaboard. In el trough which had persisted over er became strongly developed as acific were driven south into this westerlies across the southern ng the buildup of a further upper 92 Section 3 trough off the Atlantic seaboard. By April, Wagner (1975c) noted that mean "700 mb winds were at twice their normal strength east of Cape Hatteras. Record or near-record cold prevailed over much of the United States. In May as the amplification of ridges built over the eastern A the Atlantic this resulted i westerly airflow, but the a eastern flank of the Siberian r gradient between that area and prevailing in the ocean's s latitudes of the North Pacif development as being responsibl zonal available potential en acceleration of the westerlies above normal from 170E to 150W the circulatio tlantic and no n a further dvection of idge generated the long-stand urface layer ic. Dickson^ e for enhanc ergy and hen ever the No in May) . n continued, strong rtheastern Asia. In disruption of the cool air around the a strong thermal ing anomalous warmth across the lower (1975) regarded this ing the supply of ce for a late-season rth Pacific (5 m/s These s •7 00 mb reflect eastern enhance norther warm-wa Alaska. ancmali anticyc margin. of f shor anomali and spr ucce he ed i Pa d he ly ter T es p lone In € t es t ead The summer latitudes persistent showed som (+21 m) com to become continued t summer. T also showed western sea the ridge i coast narro ssive events ight anomaly n the seasona cific and w at exchange a anomaly wi tongue which hus while t ersisted to t , it suffer the west rough brought o the coast w offshore [ >-4 was charact over both t upper level e weakening c pared with +1 centered at H c the north he underlying a correspond board, northe tself weakene wed markedly. are indicated i for spring 1 changes in su estern Atlantic nd coastal upw nd coBPpleted had formerly e he main area o he southwest un ed a marked tr Atlantic the a retraction o hile cool surfa F (>-2. 2C) off er ized he Pac arcmaly ompared 40 ft ( 0-4 5N, of the warm S ing nor rly ano d so th by rid ific an ridge with th + 4 2 m) ], 150W. G ridge ST anoma theastwa maly win at the s n the mean distribution of 1975 (Fig. 3.4) and are rface temperature over the In the eastern Pacific, elling under the direct the eradication of the xtended to the Gulf of f warm surface temperature der the strong subtropical un. aticn along its eastern depressed westerlies and f the preexisting warm SST ce conditions intensified Nova Scotia ], ging at relatively high d Atlantic Oceans. The over the North Pacific e preceding season [+70 ft but moved northeastward enerally strong westerlies throughout most of the ly generated by this ridge rd shift, but along the ds weakened drastically as trip of cool water at the No relation to present author. 93 Section 3 farther east an upper- level mean ridge which had progressed slowly eastward across Arctic Canada through March, April, and May finally merged with the preexisting ridge over the eastern Atlantic to form a single zonal cell from Hudson Bay to eastern Europe. To the north of this cell intense westerlies were generated at high latitudes across the Davis Strait, Greenland, the Norwegian-Greenland Sea, and northern Norway, and were reflected in the extreme departures of +3 m/s in the mean zonal wind at high latitudes over the Western Hemisphere (Fig. 3.5). Equally extreme developments took place along the southern flank of this cell. The merging of the two centers of positive height anomaly (over northeaster nern Canada and the east Atlantic) caused a rapid realignment of these meridional cells into a zonal distribution. As this 2onal realignment took place at middle to high latitudes, the Atlantic subtropical anticyclone to the south underwent a remarkable weakening which persisted throughout the summer season. At the center of greatest weakening (30N, SOW, approximately), the following standardized departures of "700 mb height were recorded for the summer season and for its component months : Table 3.2. Standardized anomaly (departure from the long-term mean height divided by the standard deviation) of 700 mb height at 30N , SOW for the summer of 1975. June -2.2 July -3.3 August -3.0 Season -3.4 Since the standard deviation of seasonal means is less than that for any component month, the seasonal standardized anomaly of 700 mb height appears greater than the monthly anomalies. Coupled with the zonal ridge to the north, this troughing tendency at lower latitudes brought a northeasterly anomaly airflow to the western Atlantic, and thus continued the spread of abnormally cold surface water in this area (Fig. 3.4). Mere generally, as Wagner (1976b) pointed out, the subtropical high pressure belts were sufficiently far north by the end of July to develop the subtropical easterlies south of 30N with the result that several tropical storms formed over the western Atlantic and eastern Pacific. 94 Certain general tendenc into fail. In Septemb continued to dominate t intense cyclonic vortex As Taubensee pointed ou Western Hemisphere bet September (6.7 m/s vs. the mid-latitude high p in the position of indi belt took place, assi forcing . Over the North Pacific centered at 45N but h with its summer positio unusual weakness in northerly anomaly winds the western American s in the surface waters a >-2F widely distribut southward tc southern C coolest during this persistent warm pool ly rapidly since the westw generating a northerly In response to these de upper level trough rema fourth successive s destroyed in the winter Section 3 ies of the summer circulation continued er (Taubensee 1975), well-de velope d ridges he mean flow at mid-latitudes so that an prevailed ever much of the polar regions. t, the polar westerlies index for the ween 55N and 75N was at a record 1 evel for a normal of U.O m/s). However, although ressure belt remained present, adj ustments vidual high pressure centers with in this sted by the normal progression of seasonal the strong subtropical ridge remained ad intensified and moved westward compared n. In the west this movement implied the Asiatic coastal trough; in the east. began to flow strongly once again along eaboard, reviving the tendency for cooling long the coast. With SST anoma lies of ed throughout the Gulf of Ala sk a an d alifornia, this coastal water was at its season of 1975. On the other hand the ing offshore to the southwest was eroding ard shift of the mid-Pacific ridge was now airflow over this offshore region also. velopments in the Pacific, a full- latitude ined (on average) over the Rockies for the eascn. (This feature was subsequently of 1976.) In the a seascna 1 southwar Atlantic Atlantic Canada Accorapan Septembe latitude Heraisphe an above rea of eastern forcing opera d from their sum high pressur , weakening th and reintensi ying this change r, . . . moved westerly index re increased fr normal 10.0 m/s North America ted to bring mer positions, e cell spread e preexisting fying the B , "The record s south during over the wester om a below norm in October. " ( and the west winds and pres Progressively southward in block over no ermuda High ( trong polar west October as t n ha If of the al 7.0 m/s in Se Wagner 1 976a) . Atlantic , sure belts the broad the west rtheastern Fig . 3.4) . erlies of he middle Northern ptember to With the strong reestablishment of the Bermuda High in October and November, unusually warm weather prevailed ever the eastern United States. Offshore the previous cooling trend was reversed as warm SST anomalies redeveloped along the southern and western flanks of this cell. However, owing to the small latitudinal extent of this isolated high pressure center, the cooling persisted south of Newfoundland, where a northwesterly airflow from the continent was directed across the coast. 95 Section 3 J\CKNOWLECGMENTS Our thanks go to Madge Sullivan for computational assistance, to Fred Crowe for drafting, and Carolyn Heintskill for typing the manuscript. All are employed at Scripps Institution of Oceano- graphy. Part of this research was sponsored by the National Science Foundation Office for the International Decade of Ocean Exploration under NSF Contract No. OCE74-24592, and the University of California, San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography through NORPAX. LITEBATURE CITED DICKSON, R. R. 1975. Weather and circulation of May 1975. Near-record warmth in the Great Lakes Region. Mon . Weather Rev. 103:747-752, NAMIAS, J., and R. R. DICKSCN. 1976. Atmospheric clirratology and its effect on sea surface temperature. In Goulet, J. R., Jr. (compiler). The environment of the United States living marine resources - 1974, p. 3-1 — 3-12. U.S. Dep. Commer. , Natl. Ocean. Atmos. Admin., Natl. Mar. Fish. Serv., MARMAP (Mar. Resour. Monit. Assess. Predic. Prog.) Contrib. 104. TAUBENSEE, R. E. 1975. Weather and circulation of September 1975. Record light precipitation in the northwest. Mon. Weather Rev. 103:1143-1148. WAGNER, A. J. 1975a. The circulation and weather of 1974. Weatherwise 28:26-35. 1975b. Weather and circulation of January 1975. Predom- inantly mild but with a severe mid-month blizzard. Mon. Weather Rev. 103:360-367. 1975c. Weather and circulation of April 1975. Stormy with record cold. Mon. Weather Rev. 103:357-364. 1976a. Weather and circulation of October 1975. A wet month over the Northern Rocky Mountains. Mon. Weather Rev. 104: 107-113. 1976b. The circulation and weather of 1975. Weatherwise 29: 24-38. 96 1975 MEAN ANNUAL 700mb HEIGHT AND ITS ANOMALY (FEET* 10) ANAIYZEO lY MC EFS WAPIa73A Figure 3.1.— Mean annual distribution of 700 mb height and Its anomaly in 1975 (ft/10). 97 85-Fo; 75-- E^o ,iq^^ 0 0^ Figure 3.2.— Variation of monthly mean 700 mb wind (m/s) between 25N and 85N over the Western Hemisphere from December 1974 through November 1975. w = maximum westerlies, E = maximum easterlies. Numbers with signs are maximum departures from normal; dashed line, zero departure, indicates normal wind speed (Wagner 1976b). 98 Figure 3.3.— Comparison of mean annual sea surface temperature anomaly distributions for the North Pacific in 1974 and 1975, In degrees F, 99 5 o >^ CO E o c CO <0 D (0 ^^ (B ? a. t- CO m D) (U (U C o m « ^ a> 3 r ■n (0 m 0) r <0 en c CD 0) T3 0) r (- o >< CO sz 4) in m r .■ti ^ O) > C' CO (1) ■a r cu ji_ in CO t^ TJ O) % CO E o c CO ^ O) 0) £ A E o o r- c CO cu E >. k- Cl> CO 3 O 1 ■^ CO (D 100 80° 70° Ill Q 60" :d \- \- 50° < _j CO 40° UJ UJ (T CD UJ 30° Q 20 8 12 WIND SPEED MPS Figure 3.5.— Mean 700 mb geostrophic zonal wind profile for the Western Hemisphere for January. Solid line, 1975; dashed line, normal (Wagner 1975b). 101 Section 4 CLIMATIC CHANGE IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN - AN UPTATE THEOUGH 1975 James H. Johnson, Dcuglas E. McLain , and Craig S. Nelson-^ INTEODUCTION An earlier article (Johnson et al. 1976) presented time series of sea surface temperature at 33 "index" stations (Fig. U.1) (5x5 degree blocks of latitude and longitude) in the Pacific Ocean from 1948 to 1974. In addition, all 5x5 degree blocks in the Pacific Ocean, where adequate data were available, were analyzed for long-term cooling or warming trends and charts were presented showing the trends for the Pacific overall. It is the purpose of this report to update the time series through 1975 and to present data showing the magnitude of anomalies in terms of normalized standard deviations (Z- statistic) . DATA SOURCE AND PROCESSING Source of data and methods used in developing the time series and the charts of temperature trends over the Pacific were presented by Jchnson et al. (1976). Data for this update were obtained from Fleet Numerical Weather Central. Magnitudes of anomalies for the annual, winter, and summer time series were presented in terms of a standardized variable (Z-statistic) . The change of variable was calculated by Z = (X - X) /s where X is the 20-yr (1948-67) mean, (x - X) is the anomaly from the irean, and s is the corresponding standard deviation. ^Pacific Environmental Group, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, Monterey, CA 93940. 103 Section 4 Time series sea surface temperature data and the Z-statistic are presented for the 33 index stations in Appendix U.1. DISCUSSION Northeastern Pacific Ocean At 21 index stations in the northeastern Pacific Ocean, 17 annual means remained colder in 1975 than the 20-yr (1948-67) average, 3 warmer, and 1 showed no deviation from the average (Table 4.1). This distribution was similar for the winter (January-March) and summer (July-September) means, though there appeared to be a slight tendency for cold anomalies to be more widespread in summer than in winter. Seventeen index stations in summer were colder than the 20-yr average in 1975, whereas 14 were colder in winter. Most significant deviations continued to be in the general area of the Aleutian Islands and Gulf of Alaska and in the coastal region off Mexico and southern California, In the former region, normalized standard deviations at index stations 195-3, 197-1, and 198-1 ranged from -2.2 to -2.6. This was a continuation of very cold conditions that have characterized this region since the start of 1971. The number of years with such high normali2ed standard deviation was unprecedented in the time series of the Pacific we have so far analyzed. This anomalous cold period in terms of normalized standard deviation and time it had prevailed was even more pronounced than the anomalously warm period of 1957-58 in the eastern Pacific Ocean. In Section 5 of this report, McLain presenteds data on sea surface coastal tide gage stations which also shew anomalous cooling in recent years. The consequences to fisheries of this climatic change were discussed in McLain and Favorite (1976) . The other region of the northeastern Pacific that showed a striking persistence in anomalously cold temperatures was the region from Southern California to Central America (index stations 46-1 and 83-2). Cold anomalies have persisted in general over the last decade. In fact, in 1975 the cold anomalies appeared even more pronounced, the largest normalized standard deviation appearing in the summer at index station 46-1. IioEtl2J*^st ern Pacific Ocean '^he northwestern Pacific Ocean did not show a pronounced trend to either cooler or warmer conditions. Cold and warm anomalies were about equally divided. An exception to this, however, was at index station 130-3 vhere cold temperatures have prevailed for several years. The normalized standard deviation reached -3.5 in 1975. 104 Section 4 Southeastern Pacific Ocean The "real-time" data available for the three index stations off South America were not sufficient to detect any major shifts in sea surface temperature trends. However, what were available supported the findings of the projections by Quinn (1976) that a weak El Nino would occur in early 1975. The data available at the coastal stations off South America, 3C8-1 and 3U3-2, indicated that warmer than normal temperatures prevailed early in the year. The weak El Nino was also verified by NOPPAX surveys in the Eastern Tropical Pacific in early 1975 (Quinn, Section 9). LITEBATUPE CITED JOHNSON, J. H., D. R. McLAIN, and C. S. NELSON. 1976. Climatic change in the Pacific Ocean. In Gculet, J. E., Jr. (compiler). The environment of the United States living marine resources - 197U, p. U-1 — 4-19. U.S. Dep. Commer., Natl, Ocean. Atmos. Admin., Natl. Mar. Fish. Serv. , MAEMAP (Mar. Eesour. Monit. Assess. Predic. Prog.) Contrib. 104. McLAIN, D. E., and F. FAVOEITE. 1976. Anomalously cold winters in the southeastern Eering Sea, 1971-1975. In Goulet, J. E., Jr. (compiler). The environment of the United States living marine resources - 1974, p. 17-1 — 17-38. U.S. Dep. Commer., Natl. Ocean. Atmos. Admin., Natl. Mar. Fish. Serv., MAEMAP (Mar. Resour. Monit. Assess. Predic. Prog.) Contrib. 104. QUINN, W. H. 1S76. El Nino, anomalous Equatorial Pacific conditions and their predictions. In Goulet, J. R. , Jr. (compiler). The environment of the United States living marine resources - 1974, p. 11-1 — 11-18. U.S. Dep. Commer., Natl. Ocean. Atmos. Admin., Natl. Mar. Fish. Serv., MARMAP (Mar. Pesour. Monit. Assess. Predic. Prog.) Contrib. 104. 105 Table 4.1. — Sea surface temperatures, sea surface temperature anomalies, and Z~statistics at 33 index stations in the Pacific Ocean, 1975. Index Station Annual Anomaly Z-stat Jan , Feb , Mar Anomaly Z-stat Jul , Aug , Sep Anomaly Z-Stat Northeast Pacific 9-1 46-1 48-4 83-2 87-3 89-1 90-1 120-2 121-3 122-1 123-3 124-1 125-2 157-4 159-3 160-2 160-3 162-1 195-3 197-1 198-1 +0.1 +0.2 0.0 +0.1 +0.6 +1.1 -0.6 -2.2 -0.3 -0.7 -1.0 -3.5 -1.0 -1.8 -1.9 -1.7 -1.2 -1.9 -1.1 -2.2 -1.1 -1.5 -1.2 -1.8 -0.2 -0.7 +0.3 +0.9 -0.5 -1.0 -0.4 -1.3 +0.2 +0.6 -0.6 -1.4 0.0 -0.1 +0.3 +0.7 -0.4 -1.2 -1.3 -1.9 -0.9 -1.1 -1.6 -1.8 -1.0 -1.5 -0.7 -1.1 -0.9 -1.1 -0.3 -0.7 40.3 +0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 0.0 0.0 +0.7 +1.8 +0.3 +0.5 +0.9 +1.5 +0.3 +0. 6 40.1 +0.1 +0. 1 +0.2 -0.9 -1.8 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -1.4 -0.9 -1.8 -0.2 -0.4 -1.6 -1.9 -0.3 -0.4 -0.9 -0.8 -0.4 -0.3 -0.8 -1.8 -0.4 -0.7 -1.5 -1.6 -1.0 -1.4 -0.9 -1.2 -1.7 -1.3 -1.4 -2.2 -0.9 -1.0 -1.5 -1.3 -0.7 -2.6 -0.3 -0.9 -1.0 -2.0 -0.7 -2.3 -0.5 -1.3 -0.9 -2.3 Northwest Pacific 5 8-2 60-4 91-3 95-3 127-3 129-1 130-3 163-3 165-2 +0. 1 +0. 1 +0.1 +0.2 -0.2 -0.4 +0.3 +0. 1 +0.3 +0.6 40. 1 +0.3 +0.5 +1.4 +0.6 +1.1 0.0 -0.1 +0.3 +0.8 40.4 40.9 -0.1 -0.2 -0.7 -1.0 -0.4 -0.5 -1.4 -1.8 -0.7 0.0 0.0 -0.5 40.5 +1.0 -2.8 -3.5 -3.9 -3.2 -1.3 -1.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 +0.1 +0. 1 0.0 -0.1 40.5 +0.4 Southeast Pacific 308-1 309-1 343-2 -0.5 -0.7 +0.2 +0.3 +0.2 +0.2 -0.7 -1.4 -0.2 -0.2 +1.5 +1.4 - - 106 5 o sz CO CO 25.1. -.1 -.1 530 21.. 1 -.2 _ ^ T c c 27.0 -.0 -.1 153 25.3 -.3 -.5 566 21.. 1 - . 3 . ^ C 13D 26.7 -.1. -.6 122 25.6 .1 , 2 61.1 21.. 2 -.2 - . 3 179 27.8 .7 1.1 133 25.1. -.1 -.2 581 21.. 2 -.1 - • 2 153 26.5 - .5 -.8 111 25.3 -.2 -.1. 535 ?U.T .1. .6 130 26.9 -.1 -.2 106 25.3 -.2 -.1. 689 21.. 2 -.1 -.2 151 26.3 -.8 -1.2 166 25.6 .1 .2 = 37 21.. 3 ,c .C 226 27.1 .1 .1 19*. 25.6 .1 .2 11422 214.2 -.1 -.1 1.01 27.3 .2 .1. 275 25.6 .1 .2 1522 21.. I4 .1 .2 1.97 26.9 -.1 -.2 278 25.2 . . 7 -.6 11432 21.. 7 ^ 3 .6 301 26.3 -.8 -1.2 396 25.1. -.1 -.3 1139 23.9 -.1. -.C 356 27,2 .2 .3 281 21.. e -.8 -1.5 769 23.7 -.6 -1.1 253 26.3 -.7 -1.2 175 25.2 -.3 -.7 6 = 6 23.7 - .6 -1.1 239 26.5 - .5 -.8 137 25.0 -.5 -1.0 609 21.. 3 - . ] -.0 189 26.3 -.7 -1.2 106 25.0 -.5 -1.0 520 23.5 -.t -1.1. 212 26.8 - .2 -.3 103 2«..6 -1.0 -1.8 318 23. I4 -.9 -1.7 1"9 25.8 -1.2 -1.9 60 YEA« ANNUAL VALUE ANOMALY Z-STAT OES t'SO 58-2 Ja^Fl^F^4P VALUE a^C^'ALY ?-StAT CE« JL'LAL'GSEP VALUE AKChALY Z-STAT CPS I9I49 I9149 1950 1951 1952 1953 I95I4 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 196Q 1961 1962 1963 19614 1965 1966 1967 196 8 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 19714 1975 28.2 -.2 -.6 169 27.5 -.5 -.1 1.2 28.9 - . 3 -.7 kO 28.14 -.0 -.1 265 27.2 -.^ - . 8 U7 29.3 .1 .3 117 I^SUF DATA INSUF DATA 28,7 -.5 -1.1 50 28.7 . ^ .« 208 97.7 .1 ^ 1 53 29.5 .1. .8 60 28.7 .2 .6 226 27.7 .2 ^ 7 53 29.1. .3 .6 59 28.7 .3 .8 330 27.7 . 7 .1. 59 29.6 .1. 1.0 95 28.3 -.1 -.2 298 27.1. -.1 _ ^ 3 03 29.3 .1 .2 53 28.2 -.1 -.7 1.36 '7.8 ^ 7 .6 93 28.5 -.7 -1.7 99 26.0 -.5 -1.2 521. 27.2 - . 3 -.7 11.1 28.8 -.«. -.9 132 28.3 -.? -.I4 839 27.1, -.1 -.2 132 29.1 -.1 -.2 231. 28. n -.5 -1.2 735 26.9 - •*■ -1.3 202 28.8 -.3 -.8 16«. 28.0 -.1. -1.0 1226 27.0 - .5 -1.1 272 28.8 - .3 -.8 316 28.1. -.0 -.1 llll45 27.3 - . 2 -.1. 288 29.1 -.1 -.2 372 29.0 .6 1.6 859 ?8.5 .5 1.0 357 30.1 .9 2.1 77 2 = .2 .8 2.1 363 28.6 l.C 2. 2 81 2 = .8 .6 1.3 102 28.9 . <; I.I4 ><0l4 28.5 1..: 2.1 101 29.6 .1. .9 99 28.3 -.1 -.3 1835 27.3 - > 2 _ ^ c 397 28.= « ^ 3 -.6 <.88 27.9 -.5 -I.I4 1722 27.2 . ^ 1 - . 6 (.81. 28.5 -.7 -1.5 <»78 28.1. -.0 -.1 1836 27.0 -.6 -1.2 It78 29.1. .2 .5 39l» 28.7 .3 .7 631. 27.9 .1. .8 138 29.5 ^ 3 .8 153 28.6 .2 .5 803 27.5 ■ *j .0 223 29.2 .0 .1 195 28.8 .I4 1.0 678 27.8 t .F 203 29.6 .1. .9 168 26.7 .3 .8 1.32 27.9 .3 .7 151 29.0 -.1 -.3 72 28.8 .I4 .9 638 28.2 .7 1.5 113 29.3 .1 .3 107 28.1 -.3 -.9 1170 27.3 - • 2 . ^ c 312 28.7 -.5 -1.1 338 28.5 .0 .1 11.37 27.1. -.1 - . 2 362 29.3 .1 .3 362 28.6 .1 .■4 13146 28.0 ^ c 1.1 308 29.1 -.1 -.3 357 28.5 .1 .1 12 = 1 27.6 .1 . 2 377 2 = .0 -.2 -.14 27 2 110 YEAR 1948 19«»9 1950 1951 1952 1953 195«» 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1961. 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 197if 1975 Msn 60-1. ANNUAL JANFr EfAP JLLAIGSEP V^LUE ANOMALY Z-STAT oes VALUE ANCf ALY 7-S3AT ces VALUE AhCf-ALV Z-STAT oes US IF DATA INSUF n/iTS je.O .1 .3 2? 27.8 .2 .7 257 25.6 -.2 -.!< 5° 29.7 .7 1.3 68 27.6 -.G -.1 175 26.3 .<« .? 50 2<=.l .1 .1. 29 27.7 .0 .1 237 26.1 .2 .li 88 28.1. -.5 -1.3 (.1. 27.9 .2 .8 ?3D ?6.3 .5 • e 57 25.0 .1 .2 52 27.8 .2 .5 731 26.7 . ? l.lH 53 28.7 . ^ T -.6 211 27.7 .1 .2 C39 25.9 .1 .1 21.2 29.3 .1. 1.0 180 27.1 -.5 -1.7 1362 25.0 -.8 -l.l^ 302 28.3 - .6 -1.5 269 26.9 -.7 -2.3 2205 214.9 - .° -1.5 «.12 28.1 -.8 -2.1 631 27.3 -.U -1.1 Z872 25. i» -.5 -.e 723 28.6 - ^ 7 -.7 713 27.5 -.1 -.3 «.123 26.0 . ? ^ -a 757 28.7 -.2 -.5 1100 27.5 -.1 -.3 5 .7 3008 2C.5 .ii 1.1 771 23.1 .0 .1 772 1970 21.7 .1 .2 3K.7 20. 0 -.1 -.2 se-* 23.5 .1. .7 725 1971 21.8 .2 .5 2286 20.0 -.1 -.1 628 23.9 .8 1.6 1.71 1972 21. <♦ -.2 -.7 18S6 19.5 -.5 -1.1. 52F 23.2 .1 .2 271 197i| 21. S .3 .9 1277 20.3 .2 .7 361 23.7 .6 1.2 286 1975 21. «4 -.2 -.7 I'iZU 20. <. .3 . c 296 22.6 -.5 -1.0 221 YEAR 19'f8 19i»9 195 0 1951 1952 1953 195i» 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 196. 216 25.2 -.5 -1.6 81.5 23.6 -.1. - . f 253 26.8 -.e -1.8 183 25.7 - , (1 -.0 772 23.1 - .9 -1.5 151. 27.7 .3 1.0 177 26.0 .«. 1.2 823 21.. 2 . 3 • e 222 27.7 ^ T .9 11.5 26.0 .3 1.0 "="=0 21.. 7 .7 i.<= 323 27.6 . 2 c 150 ze.i .1* 1.3 857 21.. 7 .7 1.6 275 27.8 .1. 1.2 152 2E.0 • 3 1.1 551. 2«..i. ^ c 1.1 2?C 27.1. -.0 -.1 191 25.8 .1 .3 123'* 2'.. 7 .» 1.7 353 27.0 -.1. -1.0 268 25.3 -.«» -1.2 lt»q2 23.6 -.1. -.c ttCG 27.1 -.3 -.8 3(i62 1958 22.8 -.'♦ -1.1 = 900 2C.3 - .2 « ^ c nil 27.8 . ,c -1.1 1708 1959 24.1 -.0 -.1 7753 20.7 .2 .5 1822 28.3 .C .0 2124 1960 23.9 -.3 -.9 8907 20.5 .P .1 2216 28.1 -.2 -.5 2348 1961 21.. 5 , 7 .8 3973 19.7 -.8 -1.6 1651 28.9 .7 1.5 375 1962 2*.. 8 .6 1.6 1294 20.6 .1 .2 336 29.1 .8 1.8 370 1963 2'.. 7 .5 1.5 1267 2C.3 - • 2 -, ^ 7 294 28.8 .5 1.2 412 196«» Zk.i* .2 .7 6807 20.8 .4 .7 1667 28.3 .C .1 2053 1965 23.8 -.4 -1.1 7279 19.8 -.6 -1.3 1419 28.4 .1 .2 2084 1966 24.1 -.1 -.2 7959 20.9 .4 ,o 1722 28.1 -.2 -.4 2318 1967 24.7 .5 1.5 2273 20.8 .3 .7 590 28.9 .6 1.3 681 1968 24.3 .1 .4 1949 20.6 .1 . 2 420 28.2 -.1 -.1 51.9 1969 24.8 .6 1.7 1532 21.7 1.2 Z.<= 373 28.9 .6 l.<« 518 1970 24.6 .U 1.1 1338 20.7 .2 .4 271 28.5 . 3 .6 4«iO 1971 24.5 .3 i.a 1292 20.6 .1 . 2 170 28.7 .4 .9 24C 1972 24.1 -.1 -.2 2865 20.8 ^ 3 .7 «.74 27.8 . ^ c -1.1 1019 1973 24.3 .1 .3 2457 21.4 .9 l.e 1.66 27.9 -.4 -.9 819 197 .1, 1,86 25.1 ■a .8 261, 1972 20.3 -.2 -.3 laei 17.5 ,c .6 289 21,. 5 -.3 -.7 180 1973 20.7 .2 .3 1C7Q 16.6 - ,t . ^ c 31C 21,.° • 1 .3 181, 197if 20.3 -.2 -.!» 1001 17.1, ."t .l| 306 21,. 2 -.6 -1.1* 193 1975 2C.8 .3 .6 950 17.2 .1 .1 320 21.. 9 .1 .2 120 YEAR ANNUAL VALUE ANOMALY Z-STAT OBS M^r; 127 - 3 JANF'^et'tP VALUE ANCMALY Z-57flT OP'^ JILALGSEP VALUE A^C^flLY Z-STAT OBS 191,8 INSUF DATA INSUF DATA 22.5 -.0 -.0 121 igifg 18. 0 .1 .2 1122 11,. 3 -.C -.0 3CC 2'.1 .6 .7 388 1950 ie.2 1.1, 2.0 1,17 15.3 1.: 1.1, 87 23.6 1.1 1.1, 155 1951 18.5 , 7 1.0 1,86 15.7 1.1, 1.8 120 23.0 ^ c .6 97 1952 18.5 .6 .9 530 11,. 9 .7 , c 120 22.7 .2 .2 138 1953 17.7 -.1 -.2 622 15.0 .7 , c 111 22.0 -.6 -.7 172 1951, 17.8 -.0 -.0 690 13.9 -.1. -.5 151, 22.6 .1 .1 176 1955 18.6 .7 1.0 633 1A.8 c .7 12° 23.3 ,■» .9 199 1956 18.8 .9 1.1, 871 15.1, 1.1 1.1. 11, <= 23.8 1.2 1.5 250 1957 16.6 -1.3 -1.9 916 11,. 1 - .2 -.3 178 20.6 -2.0 -2.5 221 1958 17.2 -.6 -.9 965 13.1, - .9 -1.2 262 22.1 -.5 -.6 216 1959 17. <» -.5 -.7 1037 11,. 2 -.1 -.1 278 22.9 .1. .5 193 1960 17.6 -.2 -.3 1067 11,. 2 -.0 -.1 258 22.1 -.5 -.6 212 1961 18.1 .2 .3 1057 13.6 -.7 -.9 288 23.2 .6 .8 197 1962 18.1, .5 .7 788 II,. 6 ^ 7 .1. 183 22.8 .3 .1, 2«,8 1963 17.5 -.3 -.5 801 13.9 -.«! . ^ c 167 22.0 -.5 -.7 191 1961, 17.2 -.7 -1.0 161,0 13.2 -1.1 -1.5 1*71 22.1 -.1, -.6 390 1965 16.9 -1.0 -1.5 1823 12.9 -1.1. -1.8 1,1.0 21.3 -1.3 -1.6 1,72 1966 17.7 -.2 -.3 2181, 11.. 1 -.? - . 2 <.95 22.2 -.3 -.% 533 1967 18.2 , 7 .5 1070 11.. 1. .1 .1 138 23.2 .6 .8 382 1968 17.7 -.2 -.2 1131, li».2 -.1 - . 2 11.8 22.1. -.1 -.1 388 1969 17.9 .0 .1 960 15.1 ,o 1.1 11,5 22.6 .1 .1 388 1970 17.9 .0 .1 911 13.4 -.8 -1.1 108 23.6 1.0 1.3 323 1971 17.9 -.0 -.0 872 1«.«7 ^c .6 11.1. 22.6 .1 .1 195 1972 17.3 -.6 -.8 1161 13.8 -.1. -.6 183 21.9 -.6 -.8 3'»5 1973 18.1 .2 .3 1203 11.. 1, .1 .1 256 23.2 .6 .8 322 1971, 17.2 -.6 -.9 1329 11,. 6 ^ 7 .1. 273 21.2 -1.1. -1.8 300 1975 17.1 -.7 -i:0 1338 13.9 -.1, - . 5 31,6 21.1 -1.1, -1.8 272 117 YEAR ig«»g 195 0 1951 1952 1953 igs"* 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 196'» 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 197i» 1975 ANNUAL VALUE ANOMALY Z-STAT OES INSLF OATA 21. «. -.1 -.3 550 22.3 .8 1.9 618 22.0 .6 1.3 1138 21.7 .2 .(« 10<43 21.1 -.!» -.8 11.10 21.2 -.3 -.7 1155 21. R .3 .8 13'. i. 21. e .1 .2 i^ei. 20.7 -.7 -1.8 2006 21.2 -.3 -.6 1937 20.9 -.6 -1.3 2258 21.0 -.It -1.0 2537 21.7 .3 .6 2185 21.7 .2 .5 1387 21.'. -.1 -.3 1269 21.3 -.2 -.5 29'.9 21.2 -.3 -.7 3173 21.7 .2 .i. '.301 22.2 .7 1.6 2561 21.6 .1 .3 2071 21.9 .1* .9 2036 21. «. -.1 -.2 1582 21. <• -.1 -.2 151. <♦ 21.7 .2 .6 2236 21.5 -.0 -.0 213? 21.2 -.3 -.7 2100 21.5 .C .0 2283 HSO 12° - 1 JANFE p^(R VALUE ANCr'AlV 7-STAT OES INSUF DATA 18.3 .7 l.U 187 17.8 . 2 ^ c 153 18.8 1.3 2.U <4e7 17. <♦ -.2 -.It 328 17.3 - . 2 -.f. 1.98 17.8 .2 .<* 398 17.5 - . G -.1 '.67 17.9 .3 .6 531 16.8 -.7 -l.t. 751 17.0 - ,fi -l.C 658 17.2 -.U -.7 838 17.3 -.3 . ^ c 9C0 17.2 - • 3 -.6 1021 17.9 .1. .7 397 17.1 - .5 -.= 336 17.3 - . 3 • , c 1096 17.3 - . 3 -.e 890 17.3 - • 2 -.'. 1178 18.5 .9 1.8 581 18.2 .7 1.3 '.77 18.1 .6 1.1 1.83 17.7 .1 ^ T 380 17.5 -.1 - . 2 327 17.7 .1 .3 636 18.0 .5 , c 802 17.2 -.«. -.7 711 17.6 -.C -." 956 JLLAL'CSEP VALUE ANCfALY Z-STAT OPS INSUF DATA 25.5 - .? -i.e lOD 27.1 .8 1.6 109 26.6 .3 .7 119 26.5 .3 .6 le*. 26.1 -.2 -.'. 251. 25.8 -.'. -.9 209 26.7 ^c 1.0 196 26.1 -.2 -.<. 262 26.1 -.2 -.«» 289 25.9 -.It -.8 35 - 2 ANNUAL JANFEFt-AR JLLAL'GSCP YEAR V«LUE ANOMALY Z-STAT CE'! VALUE AKCfALY 7-STAT ces VALUE «hCf ALT Z-STAT C8S igftS I^S^.F CATA INSUF DATA INSLF C*TA i9<»g 11.3 .3 .5 1.80 6.2 - . 7 -.«! 67 17.5 .8 .7 163 195 0 11.7 .7 1.1 '.82 6.1 -.It -.6 109 20.0 7.U 2.6 116 1951 11.1 .1 .2 823 6.0 -.«. -.7 117 17.3 .7 .5 305 1952 11.2 .2 .3 820 6.7 .2 .i^ 175 16.9 .3 .2 251 1953 10.7 -.2 -.3 962 6.5 .1 .1 1«.5 16. C -.7 -.5 375 195'. 11.0 .0 .1 920 7.2 .8 1.3 159 17.0 .3 .2 338 1955 11. ti .5 ,7 1<.06 6.7 .2 .I. zuz 17.3 .6 .5 '.92 1956 11.8 .8 1.2 2030 7.8 1.4 2.3 292 16.1. - . 2 -.2 7 08 1957 10.7 -.2 -.'. a755 7.2 .7 1.2 '.'.2 16.1 -.6 -.'. 926 1959 1C.8 -.2 -.3 3638 6.7 . i .<< <.38 16.2 -.«. -.3 1208 1959 10. i. -.6 -1.0 35'.3 6.1 - . 3 -.5 630 16.2 -.*. -.3 125*. 196? 10.6 -.1. -.6 '.08'. 6.2 « ^ -I -.5 72? ie.6 -.0 -.0 1392 1961 11.5 .5 .8 211.5 5.9 -.5 . , c e?". 17.7 l.C .8 288 1962 11.5 .6 .9 832 7.1 .7 1.2 159 IF.l -.5 -.'. 290 1963 11.2 .' .1. 838 f .9 .<< .7 lee 16.2 -.5 -.«. 25*. 196<. 9.P -1.2 -1.8 525'. 5.6 . .c -1.5 94.2 Hi.i. -2.3 -1.8 11.66 1965 9.6 -1.3 -2.1 5363 5.7 -.7 -1.2 ice 11.. 1. -2.2 -1.7 1672 1966 10.3 -.6 -1.0 '497'. 5.8 -.e -1.0 1030 15.8 -.8 -.7 1380 1967 11.9 .9 1.5 ^?l 6.1 -.«( -.6 57 18.3 1.6 1.3 188 1968 12. «. 1.1. 2.3 637 7.5 1.0 1.7 106 17.8 1.2 .9 182 1969 11. <• .i. .7 (.3'. 6.8 ■7 .5 38 16.7 .1 .1 200 197 3 11.3 .1* .6 363 5.3 -1.1 -l.<= 59 18.0 1.3 1.0 133 1971 11. «. .5 .7 730 8.5 2.G 3.'. 28 15.9 -.e -.6 54. 197 2 1C.5 -.5 -.8 1959 5.9 -.F -.e 371 16.7 .1 .1 621 1973 11.1 .1 .2 2291 e.5 .1 .1 «.23 16.6 -.0 -.0 591 1971. 1C.3 -.7 -1.1 2215 5.9 -.5 _ , c «.Q9 16.5 -.2 -.2 659 1975 11.0 , 1^ . 1 23'.1 6.4. -.t -.1 «.35 17.2 ^ c .<. 731 a> MSQ L95 - 3 ANNUAL JA^FEF^'8P JLLAUCSEP YEAR VALUE ANOMALY 7-STAT OES VALUE ANOMALY Z-STAT CES VALUE ANCNALY Z-STAT oes 191.8 INSLF DATA INSUF DATA INSUF CATA 19'.9 INSUF DATA 2.8 -2.7 -2." 32 11.7 -1.5 -1.1. 29 1950 INSUF DATA INSUF DATA INSUF DATA 1951 INSLF DATA INSUF DATA INSUF CATA 195 2 INSUF DATA INSUF DATA 13.0 - . 2 -.2 20 1953 INSUF CATA , INSUF DATA 13.1 -.1 -.1 k2 195'. <:.2 .£. .7 167 5.7 .2 . 2 2? It.. 2 1.0 .9 47 1955 e.2 -.5 -.8 195 6.3 .8 .8 37 11.7 -1.5 -1.'. (.8 1956 P.? • C .0 27'. 5.8 ^ 1 . 3 ftl 13.3 .1 .1 111 1957 9.7 1.0 1.6 261. 5.0 . ^c -.'5 65 15.9 2.7 2.5 73 1958 ?.9 1.2 1.8 360 6.5 l.C 1.1 83 1«..7 1.5 l.d 76 1959 9.3 .6 .9 267 e.o ^ c .5 67 13.3 .1 .1 57 1960 8.7 -.0 -.1 34.7 5.7 .2 .2 79 13. C -.2 -.2 97 1961 «.l .(. .6 t.9C 5.9 .i. ^ c 89 13.'. .2 .2 135 1962 «.2 .5 .7 709 5.6 .1 .1 I'.'f 1'..0 .7 .7 213 1963 9.5 ,7 1.2 761 6.5 l.C 1.1 175 13.7 .<) .<. 230 196«» e.7 -.r -.0 728 6.3 .o , c 129 12.5 -.7 -.7 186 1965 7.7 -1.0 -1.6 821 «..6 _ ,o -.9 176 11.7 -1.5 -l.«. 223 1966 8.0 -.8 -1.2 933 «..9 -.6 -.6 187 12.4. -.8 -.7 28 1972 7.1 -1.7 -2.6 767 3. It -2.C -2.1 16*. 12.2 -1.0 -.9 2*1 1973 7.Z -1.5 -2.3 508 ().(. -1.1 -1.2 1'.2 11.1 -£.1 -2.0 130 197'. 7.9 -.8 -1.3 632 '..3 -1.2 -1.3 116 12.8 -.'. -.«• 179 1975 7.7 -1.'. -2.2 2018 '..5 - , e -i.r 666 11.8 -1.5 -1.3 5«.3 122 YEAR igifg 1950 1951 1952 1953 195'» 1955 1956 195 7 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1965 1966 1967 196» 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 197 10.7 .1 . 2 68 6.9 .1 .k "♦li* 3.6 -.3 -1.0 67 11.1 .5 1.0 135 i:.k -.3 -1.2 358 3.9 -.1 -.2 61 10.0 -.6 -1.2 106 6.9 .1 .<« 1.25 3.7 _ ^ 3 -.e 73 11.1 .5 1.0 173 6.9 .2 .7 50'» 3.6 -.3 -1.0 73 11.1 .5 .9 203 6.i« -.3 -1.1 566 '..I .1 .b 83 1G.2 -.". -.7 2 3.6 -.3 3.« -.2 •..l .1 '..0 .0 '..2 .3 3.9 -.1 3.9 -.1 •*.'i .c If. 5 .5 '•.3 .3 «t.6 .6 5.2 1.2 7.6 -.1, 3.3 -.7 3.8 -.1 3.5 -.5 -1.1 1(3 1.2 30 -1.1 62 -.8 1.1 -.1. 1.2 -1.5 51 .1. 66 .1* 92 1.? 87 ."= 83 -.? 102 -.9 171 -.1. 123 .1. 71 .0 129 .7 27C - . 3 299 -.2 ICl 2.6 63 l.ii 81 .<= 51 1.7 81 3.1. 57 -l.C 175 -2.0 238 -.3 217 -1.3 272 INSUF DATA 9.0 -.1. -1.0 66 9.1. .C .1 1.9 9.9 ^ c 1.3 118 9.1 - . 3 -.7 75 9.6 .2 .(. 121. 9.5 .1 , 3 160 9.3 -.1 -.3 132 9.2 - .2 -.6 251 9.7 .3 .7 270 9.4 .0 .0 271. 9.9 .5 1.2 338 9.3 -.0 -.1 302 9.2 -.2 -.1. 93 9.*. .1 .1 130 9.5 .1 .2 11.0 8.3 -1.1 -2.7 611 9.2 - • 2 — ^ c 580 9.1. -.0 -.1 105 10.2 .8 2.1 117 9.2 -.2 -.6 107 9.8 .1. .9 122 9.1. .0 .0 120 7.9 -1.5 -3.8 68 8.5 - .9 -2.3 223 8.C -l.li -3.1. 352 9.3 -.1 -.2 1.13 8.5 - .9 -2.3 '.53 123 YEAR 1950 1951 1952 1953 igs*. 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 196<. 1965 1966 1967 ig6fl 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 i. .5 14(46 25.5 -.2 -.(4 108 22.(4 1.1 .9 115 igei. 22.6 _ , c -1.2 671 25.6 -.1 -.2 300 20.(4 . ,c -.8 ll(i 1965 214.6 1.1 1.5 505 25.9 .1 .3 132 22.8 1.(4 1.2 130 1966 23.1 -.14 -.6 519 26.0 .2 .1. 135 20.8 -.6 -.5 115 1967 23.0 -.5 -.7 I4I45 25. (♦ -.* -.7 153 20.7 -.7 -.6 87 1968 23.3 -.2 -.2 515 2<..i. -l.«4 -2.7 158 22.2 .8 .7 95 1969 2«4.7 1.2 1.6 530 25.8 .0 .1 162 22.9 1.5 1.3 102 1970 23.0 -.5 -.7 556 26.1 , 3 .6 l«i5 20.3 -1.1 -1.0 118 1971 23.2 -.3 -.5 391 25.1 -.7 -1.3 1«47 21.2 -.2 -.2 88 1972 25.1 1.6 2.2 1(|2 26.1 .(< .7 30 2«..0 2.6 2.3 36 1973 INSLF DATA 27.2 1.5 2.8 I43 20.(4 -.9 -.8 26 197 < CO c o o E i- o ffl tn ^ cd 3 o o- o ■o 0> c c ffl o £ CO 3 (0 a- » (0 p c o a> T3 (/) nj (0 X S ■o B c w ; O 09 2 O 0) en n a> E O) 3 o C T3 C o o -» a> CO CO o Q. E o a> o a r 3 0) a a> CO Sri 15133 D30 nbWG'Jb SnrnSD 030 A'^JONb a E o c < I. in k. 3 a> 136 =^^; — li^ — IS "■" b ^ » —I 1_ 18 = 3 "1 ;;^ s --^ -r K — ^ :- S ^ S — = b=- ^ "• 5 ^ = s b^ $ -*v€ _. s 3 '-Tr, 5 SI 3 5 ». S IS S Ifi s !» iS "— 1 1 1 1 ^ ,^ E-»- 3 ^=- s ^2 . ■" "•3 ^ g -=? s s -^ s -== ls=- iS — ^_ B ^ S S! ffl S S S :; * s •a 3 5 :i ' 5 s s s IS IS s a Si " — i — 1 — \ \ ^= 3! - cn ^. CM ' (M - in 5 SniS13C 330 AlbUONH £"iIS133 530 nbUCNU SniSnSD 330 .ntlWONU 03 5 s - CD :SiiE -^ m s; — dsi CE , -^ .ji-dj - g " -= ■• Ij.' -; r (n ^ ^H — 1 >- _ V. = — K — ^ S^ - r" . - ^ S -r^ "^ !^ — = s ^ r- ss --f* ^ 5 ■ 5 = — rj -^ — a^jitSgg = _ e^^^ s ~°°°°°°°° s s ft s !C S !S ia " 1 — 1 — — \ — \ — SniS333 330 nbUO'^H Sni£133 330 ntWONB z < (D ^ O C 8 — : *- 8 ■■ ' J - ' ^ s ^ s - ^ 8 ~5 £ \ S -< K^ . ■: B^^- t E . ^ 3 w 3 ^ S ^ s -^ L SS _=^^^ - ^ — € ■c- -_^ ! — jb- *& H — ^- H — I- ^^ ~ 7, T^ . ^ Si ^ S ~ Sc s =^ ^ 5 -" L_ s :: ^ ^ ^ ^ ' -^ t= ' J3 -^— - . = - ■ en :; -^^M " Z Si ^ ;^^ s CO " s E s rr — ' s 1 1 — 1 — 1 — -^^ % -£ ■s ^' •s ^^ 3 -^ S ' CO 5 CO - «— < a; in " d !S S= (n -'- UJ (X -^- to s '^ i " — 1 — 1 — \ — '■ — 1 — __^ lllJl (M U -^ ~ fi ' -^^ in in CO m rf ^ m ^^ CO •a c CO ^ < CO ^ CO ^J CO c o o a 2 10 c in CO >< 1— O 3 cn £• c CO CO c: s ? O c « CO c "O o A c CO a z O m CD r O >. (0 n (D (D ■o (T) m ?» ■D (D W £: IN H ^ ^^^ ;: ^L fT, »-. lO ^=- £ ^ J5 r ^ 3 ^— S -^ - 1^ ^*^ CO O c CO c o 2 CO a> O) CO o> (i> X) SniS13J Q3D AlbUONb £.115133 030 AlbHCNb SniS333 330 nbUONU 5015133 030 AlbWOMa 5015133 03D XiaWONb 139 (6 ^^ ■• ^ C ^ ^ EL !l r _Sr ^^ le . 1- 3 ^ S ^ — a ^ r s . r s ^ r 1" s i s J ■ •!S •5 « IS iC ' .; ft !5 . fc- » -% L K -< ■ 91 J P ' L S 4 ^ ^ r s "■ s -: :_ 3 - 1 3 -■ g « ^4 ^ 3 S" a S; » ^a- ^. u ^ tn _ "-Mill 1 1 1 II E?5 ^ cr * I— _ (n _ -Mill -* 5^ :ff- z-^=- I I M s ^EZ_ s = 5=. s? ^r IS ^ ;, -==!. ? s -=^ s t- s ^ y i= E ^r ;? -= S -r S -^ 5 7^ s _ ■ 5^ 5 .P- « — = 5 ^E. 6 ^ b. S ^g_ S - S 11 S "= — 3 -it ; ^ : 5 3 en CO CD m z CO LD (X z o z: _i z 2 - ^^ -• — —r CO r, -^~ =i iS. 1 = IT) •-• ^5 5 ^ •^ IS^ S in s S !S S S s CL IS IS se: >; 3 s d m SB ! s cr _| Si s g u _ M M 1 -i- 1 II "-+- III ^ < g (D •H . +j tr> (d a 0) iH » . c in » I-- o +J M 0 0 IT) in in CTl in in 00 CSJ 1 — 1 — 1 1 1 — 1 1 1 — o I CM lO I I I CD lO CVJ <::*• vn CO i CO CO in in CNJ in o o lO o 00 ro lo VD CO (Ti r^ o lo r— in I CM CO in I CO I CO CO I in I I o CO r>«. , — 1 — ^ in in ^ CM 'd- o in CTl 1 — •=3- 1 — CM CM CM 1 — 1 — KO in co CO o CO 1 — CM CM CO r— CO 00 cy> CO o in r^ CM r^ , CO CO C) in cr> CM in 00 in CTl in en CM CvJ CO CM CO 1 — • I CO 00 I I 1^ I in , ^ , CM r^ in o o CM o in r^ 00 CO «n CO o 1 — CM CM CM 1 — r— 1 — r— m CTl o in r«^ -=*- c^> 00 in in CJ^ r^ CO in in 00 CO r^ in (d 0) O U U O si >, w iH C ^ O -P G O I I 0) (d u •H . CO r- C • -H W iH a ja H Id (d H > CO o in CO CM 1 CM CO 1 CO CM I r— in I— I CM in CO r^ r^ CO , in CM CM CM CO •^ «J3 cr> CM CM o r>~ in o CO CM r^ CT\ r^ CM CM 1 ' 1 ' 1 ' in in CTl "^d- cr. cr, '^i- CO 2: CO 0 0 10 1 CM CO <: 1 I— 1 — 1 1 1 --D I 1 o CM CM CM in o in ^ in r»x 00 CO «v^ CO in CTl * in >* CO CO CO in CM in CM in CM in CM CM CM en en <£) CO 0 2: 0 in 2: 0 in in 2: in 2: in CO in CM 2: en CO 2: in CO CO CO 2: 0 CO CM 2r CM 2: CM 146 UJ C3 C\J I CNJ LO CTi UD m CM I I 00 IT) r- a> «~ M O • «w a o ^^ •H £ +J (d O U o O T- H 1 W fO \ C B Cr» C c •H (d H (U rH 6 0) » ^>, o,r^ 3 VD 1 H 00 rt) ^ ■•J CTN w t— ffl '-' O u M >i >1 1 HO M CN 4J C 0) O J= s H-» 1 1 O • ■•-> •H (U -•-> fH •=d- 1 1 1 CO I— "^ CM CM CO ^ en r-^ 00 en o r— CO VO , — CM CO ^ ;z 00 ■'J- LO 1 CO CO 1 1 >- ■=3; ca I 00 CM CSJ 00 00 I I I cn vo CO I CM I CO CM 0 00 0 CM r^ ro CM CO UD 1 1 CO 1 "7 CO CM r^ LO , U3 cn CO LO cn LO CM •~ CM in 00 CO ■— CO CO vo CM 1 CM CM LO kD CO LD LO CM I CO CO r— LO 0 LO 1 — LD * 1 CM 1 CO CM 1 CM 1 t T 1 s: CO , — CO 00 LO LO cC LO r-^ 0 CM LO VO •-D VO LO CO CO cn vo CO LO 1 ' CM 1 ' CM cn VO CO CO r— CO LO CM LO CM LO CM LO CM CM CM cn cri vo CO 0 7Z 0 VD 0 vo LO 2: LO 2: LO 00 LO 2: CM cn CO 7^ VD CO 2: CO CO 2: 0 CO 2: CM CM 2: CM 147 Figure 6.1.— Computation grid. Intersections at which upwelling indices are connputed are nnarked with large dots. 148 PERCENTILIZED MONTHLY MEAN UPWELLING INDICES J F M fl 62N. 149U 6p 1975 J J R 5 0 33N.119W 4lf^ ^rZi^^^...5!j^ 30N.119H A3 *1 27N,116H 2 Z4N.U3U 4i i 21N. 107H 51-^ - -75 7S^-^- js;i-- . 8S ■■ ~ia\\^x^- -,m^EE:m- 5^.Js|y.:..43'-^;S^5-^ Figure 6.2.— Percentilized upwelling index values for 1975. Numbers indicate tfie percentile occu- pied by each monthly value within the frequency distribution of the 30 values for each respective month and location in the 30-yr series, 1946-75. The contour interval is 10 percentile units. Values belovif the median (50th percentile) are shaded. 149 Section 7 OCEANIC CONDITIONS BETWEEN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND THE U.S. WEST COAST AS MONITOEED BY SHIPS OF OPPOETUNITY - 1975 J. F. T. Saurl INTRODUCTION During 1975 cooperating merchant ships regularly dropped expendable bathythermographs (XBT's) for obtaining subsurface temperatures and took surface salinity and temperature observ- ations along three shipping routes between Hawaii and the U.S. west coast (Fig. 7.1) . The sections of observations represent a frequency of one every 1-2 weeks on the route from San Francisco to Hawaii, and every 2 weeks and every 3-U weeks on the routes from Los Angeles and Seattle to Hawaii, respectively. The three routes from Hawaii to west coast ports cress a Transition Zone, shown schematically in Figure 7. 1, which lies between the cooler, lower salinity, modified subarctic waters of the California Current and the warmer, higher salinity central waters of the eastern North Pacific (ENP) . Laurs and Lynn have indicated that the character and position of the Transition Zone, directly or indirectly, influence the offshore distribution and migration routes of albacore moving from the central North Pacific into the summer fishery off the continental west coast. The Transition Zone is a complex region and not yet fully understood. In the region between California and Hawaii, it is bounded on the south and southwest by the subtropical front (Foden 1971, 1975). On the north and northeast, respectively, it is bounded by the subarctic front and some type of southeastward extension of this feature, which LaFond and LaFcnd (1971) named the California front. These boundaries are not static. The sharpness and location of the associated oceanic fronts change with time; large waves and eddies occur in them; and within the Transition Zone surface fronts separated from subsurface ^Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA 92037. 151 Section 7 boundaries are found in detailed observaticn£2.3,4 by research vessels (Roden 1975). Observations from merchant vessels can provide a quasi-continuous monitoring of oceanic features frequently throughout the year as compared to less frequent but more detailed surveys by research vessels. Monitoring of oceanic features on the San Francisco route about every 18-21 days was started in June 1966 using a single vessel. Observations began on the Los Angeles route in October 1973 and on the Seattle route in April 1974. Therefore, only for the San Francisco route is the record of observations long enough to establish significant means and describe everts of a given year in terms of departures from a long-term mean. This report is divided into two parts. Part I describes the general oceanic features on each route at the end of the cooling and warming seasons in 1975. In Part II the mean seasonal distributions of surface salinity, surface temperature, and heat storage in the upper 100-m layer on the San Francisco route are given. The anomalies of these variables for the period 1972 through 1975 are discussed to show the characteristics of 1975. OBSERVATIONS Ships* mates routinely take XBT observations. Original records are digitized ashore by the Pacific Environmental Group (PEG) of NMFS, Monterey, CA, using facilities and procedures of the Fleet Numerical Weather Facility. The "surface" temperatures are subjective extrapolations of the near-surface gradient, so are probably representative cf temperatures around 3-5 m. ^Laurs, R. M., R, J. Lynn and R. N. Nishimoto. n1975. Rep. of joint NMFS-Am. Fishermen's Res. Found, albacore studies con- ducted during 1975. SWFC Admin. Rep. LJ-75-84, U9 p. ^Lynn, R. J., and R. M. Laurs. 1972. Study of the offshore distribution and availability of albacore and the migration routes followed by albacore tuna into North American Waters. In Rep. of joint NMFS-Am. Fishermen's Res. Found, albacore studies conducted during 1972. (Unpub. rep.) '*Lynn, R. J. 1973. Further examination of the offshore distri- bution and availability cf albacore and migration routes followed by albacore into North American waters. In Rep. of joint NMFS-Am. Fishermen's Res. Found. albacore studies conducted during 1973. (Unpub. rep.) 152 Section 7 To obtain surface salinites, water samples are drawn from the seawater intake system by ships' engineers, and salinity later determined ashore by laboratory salinometer. Seawater intakes of the various ships rarge in depth between 3 and 7 m below the surface. Observations are scheduled every four hours. Depending upon the speed of the ship, distance between observations varies from 120 km (65 nm) to 165 km (90 nm) . The distances used in the figures are great circle distances to the observation from a reference pcirt, 21N21', 157^42', which lies in the ocean channel directly south of Makapuu Point, Oahu. This is the approximate departure point for the great circle track of the vessels going from Honolulu to the west coast ports. PART I. SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE Vertical sections of the distribution of temperature along the three routes in 1975 near the end of the cooling season, herein termed late winter, and near the end of the warming season, termed late summer, are shown in Figures 7.2-7.U. The figures also contain horizontal profiles of surface salinity and temperature along each route. The figures^ show some typical features of the distribution of temperature in the northeast Pacific Ocean. The surface mixed layers and thermoclines reach their maximum depths in late winter. Depths of the mixed layers are generally at least 100 m. They are deepest, attaining depths of greater than 150 m, in the central parts of the San Francisco and los Angeles sections in the Transition Zone. The warming which occurs during spring and summer is generally confined to the upper 75-100 m. The temperatures below 100 m in late summer remain essentially the same as in late winter. In late summer the sharpest and shallowest thermoclines are found in the subarctic waters of the California Current where salinities of the upper layers are low and downward mixing of heat is inhibited by the stability associated with the increase in salinity with depth. This effect is particularly noticeable on ^Selected sections have been published monthly in Fishing. ISf2£l§iion, NMFS's environmental data publication distributed monthly by the Southwest fisheries Center, La Jolla, CA 92038, since March 1972. Interpretations of features in the sections were included through March 1975 (Saur 1972-75). 153 Section 7 the Seattle section where about one half of the route lies in subarctic waters (surface salinities below 33.5 o/oo) . Slopes of the isotherms in and below the permanent thermocline reflect the geographic orientation of the individual routes. The Seattle sections, having the greatest change in latitude, show a consistent (downward trend of the deeper isotherms from the coast almost to Hawaii. However, on the Los Angeles route, with a lesser change in latitude, the downward slope towards Hawaii of the 10C-15C isotherms occurs in the California Current region, i.e., atout the eastern cne-third of the section. In late summer on the San Francisco and Los Angeles sections thermostad regions (nearly isothermal layers between the surface thermocline and the permanent thermocline) are present in the Transition Zone. On the late summer San Francisco section (Fig. 7.3) this layer can be recognized in the vertical profiles at observations 7-14, ard en the Los Angeles section these occur at observations 14-23. These thermostad regions are found near the outer portion of the California Current and the Transition Zone where higher salinity ENP water lies below California Current waters of about the same temperature. In the spring and early summer temperature inversions often appear in this region. On all horizontal profiles of surface salinity the lower salinities are observed near the continental west coast. The salinities reach a maximum northeast of Hawaii at 27N-30N, where evaporation (minus precipitation) is greatest the year round. The salinity then decreases somewhat towards Hawaii. The steeper gradients and fronts which occur in the Transition Zone and the front appearing in the late summer sections about 200-400 nm (370-740 km) northeast of Hawaii will be discussed in Part II which deals with longer time- series observations on the San Francisco route. PAPT II. SUPFACE SALINITY, SURFACE TEMPERATUPE, AND HEAT STCEAGE ALONG THE S i!N FRANCISCO TO HONOLULU ROUTE Surface salinity and XBT observations have been made on the route between San Francisco and Honolulu since June 1966. Sampling intensity has been much greater since March 1972 than in earlier years. Table 7.1 summarizes by year the number of transects and the total number of observations through 1975. This part of the paper discusses long term means and monthly anomalies of surface salinity, surface temperature, and heat storage. 154 Section 7 Table 7. 1. --Summary of observations, San Francisco-Honolulu route Year Surface salinity Transits Total obs. Temperature (XBT's) Transits Total obs. 1966^ 10 151 10 192 1967 15 299 16 342 1968 20 452 19 549 1969 15 360 15 433 1970 18 522 19 562 1971^ 9 169 12 252 1972 18 385 18 381 1973 28 625 28 635 1974 43 1147 44 1259 1975 43 1199 47 1275 Totals 5309 5880 ^"^ months, June-December. ^Project inactive several months during 1971 due to prolonged shipping strikes. Analysis of Data to Standard Grid Because of the variability of locations of observations between sections and of the time intervals between transects, the various time series of observations were computer analyzed year by year to obtain values on a time-space grid of 24 intervals/yr by 92.5 km (50 nm) . The year 1971 was deleted from the analysis because of insufficient data (Table "7.1). Gridded values were thus computed for eight years of data, June 1966-Deceraber 1970 and January 1972-June 1975. The irean fields shewn are based on this 8-yr period. The full year of 1975 was analyzed when all observations had been received, but the means were not recomputed. The annual means and the anomalies presented here have been smoothed by a centered 5x3 point [ 2 mo by 100 nm (193 km) ] weighted smoother to emphasize the time continuity of the features without greatly suppressing important horizontal gradients. Neighboring grid values were weighted by the inverse square of their distance, d, from the grid point being smoothed: w = [ (1-d/d*) ]sguared where d* was 1.1 times the distance to the farthest point used in each smoothing calculation. The smoothing had little effect on 155 Section 7 the means. For anomaly fields the smoothing suppressed small scale variability which probably resulted from both real variability and observational error. Mean annual cycles are shown for surface salinity and surface temperature in Figure 7.5, and for heat storage (represented by average temperature in the layer from the surface to 100 m) in Figure 7.6. The mean surface salinities are primarily related to position along the route and only secondarily to time during the year. Salinities below 33.0 o/oo occur throughout the year in the low salinity core of the California Current. Those above 35.0 o/oo occur in the region of the FNP central waters. Strongest horizontal gradients occur between salinities of 33.75 o/oo and 34.75 o/oo and are indicative of the Transition Zone. The mean surface temperature has a strong seasonal cycle. The heat storage has a siirilar but more subdued seasonal cycle due mainly tc flattening of the summer maximum. The flattening is greatest in the eastern half of the section, where it was seen in Part I that the summer thermoclines are shallow and strong. Here the 0-100 m average temperature is about 3-UC lower than the surface temperature, but towards Hawaii the difference is about 1C. Between-year standard deviations of salinity and temperature (Fig. 7.7) indicate that lowest year to year variability of salinity occurs in the salinity maximum of ENP waters and, secondarily, in the low salinity core of the California Current. Highest variability occurs in the Transition Zone (133W-139W) where horizontal gradients are largest. Temperature variability is more related to time than to position along the route. lowest variability of temperature occurs in March-April when temperatures are at a minimum and mixed layers deepest, while highest variability occurs in August-September when surface temperatures are highest and mixed layers shallowest or nonexistent, liro^zSeries of Anomalies Anomalies of surface salinity, surface temperature, and heat storage (0-100 m) exhibit large coherent patterns, but of differing natures. Salinity anomalies (Fig. 7.8) exist as relatively narrow bands with long time persistence. Surface temperature anomalies (Fig. 7.9) occur over greater distances along the route, but are of shorter duration. Heat storage anomalies (Fig. 7.10) appear generally similar to the surface temperature anomalies. However, in the eastern half of the route 156 heat storage anomalies appear to have a superimposed time persistence similar tc the salinity anomalies. Section 7 pattern of The most striking feature of the time-series anomalies is in the salinity data, where there are coherent patterns east of 140W whose axes appear to progress along the route at a speed of about 2.5 cm/sec. They appear first in the California Current, move through the Transition Zone where they reach maximum intensity, and disappear into the ENP waters. A major anomaly regime arises about once a year. The wavelength alonc[ the route is short enough that the two anomaly regimes may exist at the same time. Seme other characteristics of the anomaly patterns surface variables are : for the two 1 . When strong salinity anomalies were observed in 1972, 1973, and 1974, between 135W and 140W, the anomalies near Hawaii were of opposite sign. 2. When strongly negative salinity anomalies occurred in the Transition Zone from January 1972 through June 1973, below normal temperature occurred along most of the route. 3. Conversely, strongly positive salinity anomalies from March 1974 to Jure 1975 were associated with above normal temperatures during fall and winter of 1974-75. 4, The near-normal fall and winter of 1973-74 period of reversal in sign of the anomalies. was the 5. About June 1975, below normal temperature anomalies appeared over most cf the route at the time negative salinity anomalies appeared in the California Current. Ii§§t Storage Heat storage is a measure of subsurface thermal structure, which can be analyzed in the same manner as surface salinity and surface temperature. It indicates the longer term availability of heat energy for exchange with the atmosphere, whereas surface temperature anomalies might be superficial and misleading. Also the changes in average ocean current are related to horizontal changes in thermal structure. I have chosen to use here the average temperature of a designated layer as the measure of heat storage. Thus far, I have computed means and time series of anomalies of heat storage for only the surf ace-to-1 00- m layer (Fig. 7.10). These show a complex pattern but generally correspond well with surface temperatures, especially in the eastern half of the section, i.e., east of 140W. Coupled with the previously noted 157 Section 7 relation of surface salinity and surface temperature, these indicate that the major anomalies in these variables are caused ty changes in advection. This agrees with the conclusion by Tabata (1976) that advective phenomena are the primary causes of anomalies in eastern boundary currents. Summar;^ for JJ75 The year 1975 began with a relatively deep layer of warm water in the central portion of the San Francicso-Honolulu route and slightly negative temperature anomalies near the coast. Surface salinity anomalies were positive, and especially strong in the cuter part of the California Current and in the Transition Zone. Positive salinity and temperature anomalies seem to be associated with a diffuse Transitior Zone having weak and variable fronts, such as occurred in 1974 (Saur 1976) . At the end of winter 1975, below normal salinities and significant cold anomalies appeared in the core of the California Current (Figs. 7.8, 7.9) . This resulted in the formation of a strong salinity and temperature front which was observed between 131W and 132W in late March (Fig. 7,3). Although the temperature front dissipated during the summer warming, the salinity front remained fairly strong and moved slowly southwest ward along the route. By late September (Fig. 7.3) it was between 136W and 137W and had moved about 250 nm (450 km) . With this movement the negative salinity anomalies became more widespread between the front and the west coast. The largest negative anomaly was -0.25 o/oo. Cold anomalies appeared in the California Current area and the Hawaii area in early spring and spread across the entire route in late summer (August-October). However, by the end of the jear the cold temperatures and low salinity anomalies were waning and conditions had returned to near normal. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The monitoring project which collects the data used in this report is a cooperative project among the U.S. Navy Fleet Numerical Weather Central (FNWC) , Monterey, National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), and Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO). It has been a NOPPAX (North Pacific Experiment) project since 1973. Since 1971 it has received partial support from the National Science Foundation (Office for the IDOE) and the Office of Naval Research. The continuing efforts of the following personnel of NMFS are gratefully acknowledged: Eouglas E. Mclain (NOBPAX, Co-principal investigator) and Marsha Fculkes, (PEG) , Monterey, CA 93940; Paul N. Sund (NMFS coordinator for Platforms of Opportunity) and 158 Brian Jarvis (PEG) , Tiburon; SWFC, NMFS, La Jolla. Section 7 Hilary Hogan and J. E. Penner, FNWC has supplied the XPT probes and use of coirputer facilities at Monterey. We thank the following shipping companies and their ships' personnel for their cooperation: Chevron Shipping Co., Matson Navigation Co., and Pacific Far East Line. Computer analyses and graphics for the time series surface data were done by James A. Charters, SIO, using the NOEPAX graphic display programs on a Control Data 76G0 computer at the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Berkeley, CA . LITEEATUEE CITED LaFOND, E. C, and K. G. LaFOND. 1971. Thermal structure through the California Front; factors affecting underwater sound transmission measured with a towed thermistor chain and attached current meters. U.S. Nav. Undersea Ees. Dev. Cent., San Diego, NUC TP 224, 133 p. LAUES, E. M., and E. J. LYNN. 1975. The association of ocean boundary features and albacore tuna in the northeast Pacific. In Proceedings: Third S/T/D Conference and Workshop, San Diego, CA, p. 23-30. EODEN, G. I. 1971. Aspects of the Transition Zone in the Northeastern Pacific. J. Geophys. Ees. 76 (1 5) : 3462-3475 . 1975. On North Pacific temperature, salinity, sound velocity and density fronts and their relation to the wind and energy flux fields. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 5:557-571. SAUE, J. F. T. 1972-75. Subsurface teirperature structure in the northeast Pacific Ocean. In Fishing lUl. 2£I!l§iion (monthly series), 1972(11-12), 1973(1-12), 1974(1-12), 1975(1-3). NOAA/NMFS, Southwest Fisheries Center, La Jolla, CA 92C37. 1976. Changes in the transition zone and heat storage in 1974 between Hawaii and California. In Goulet, J. E., Jr. (compiler). The environment of the United States living marine resources - 1974, p. 6-1--6-9. U.S. Dep. Ccmmer. , Natl. Ocean. Atmos. Admin., Natl. Mar. Fish. Serv., MAPMAP (Mar. Besour. Monit. Assess. Predic. Prog.) Contrib. 104. TABATA, S. 1976. The general circulation of the Pacific Ocean and a brief account of the cceancgraphic structure of the North Pacific Ocean. Part II - Thermal regime and influence on the climate. Atmosphere 14:1-24. 159 50' I60» ISO" MO* 40' 30" 20° ■ ■— ^ I30* 120" I I I I Jmi I .1-1 I I, I ,.l III ,1 strait of Juan de Fuco^ /'Y~~^ Seat tie ^ * j:olumbia R. / I ^Portland / / / ^ / / << ;c o^ '/-.•.■.••• .>7-.-.-.-.-.-.\ U. 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Weak upwelling was still present along the coast of northern Peru to the south of Punta Earinas (4S) , but no cool water was advected northwestward from this upwelling area as in normal years. Stroup (Wyrtki et al. 1976), after completing legs 3 and U of the El Nino Watch cruise between 17 April and 27 Kay, reported that nearly all the evidence of the southward intrusion of warm, low salinity surface water, noted during legs 1 and 2, had vanished and that the cold coastal upwelling conditions had been reestablished. Also, as in normal years, a well-developed tongue of cold water extended from the north Peruvian coastal area north-northwest to the Eguator east of the Galapagos Islands. Temperatures along the equator and in the coastal upwelling zone were some 4C lower than observed during legs 1 and 2, approximately 2 months earlier. The 15C isotherm had also returned toward its normal shallow position both in the equatorial region and in the coastal upwelling zone. West of the Galapagos Islands the isotherm depths indicated much weaker development of the equatorial undercurrent than was noted during leg 1. This shift between conditions found in the oceanographic data for cruise legs 1 and 2 in February-March 1975 and those for legs 3 and 4 in April-May was surprisingly large and rapid. With regard to pressure indices, pre-El Nino peaks in the 12-mo running mean plots occurred about the end of 1973 (Fig. 9.1), indicating that peaks in the annual and interannual fluctuations were in phase. (Note the resulting unusually high 3-rao running mean peak for January 1974 in Fig, 9.2.) This meant that the S.O. period would have to be near 3 years if troughs of the two fluctuations were to be in phase about 18 months later. (We must remember that the regular annual fluctuation has its lowest index near the middle of the year since the Easter Island pressure is on the average lowest in May and the Darwin pressure highest near the middle of the year.) However, in this case the S.O. period turned out to be significantly shorter than it was for the 180 Section 9 situati evidenc the end western and in eastern Souther troughs resulti develop to the and the The wea respect the Gal associa weaker index how the Tarawa the sma small (Fig. 9 on leading up to ed by the shallow of 1974 for most sites along early 1975 for in most sites (Fig n Oscillation pe of the two f ng El Nino even mental change wa preevent peak whi reby indicated th the strong 1972 12- mo running indices involv the rid ge (Tote dices involving . 9.1) . There riod s hortened luctuat ions we t was weak . s the rapid ris ch took place o at the S.O. pe El Nino event; mean trough occu ing components gegie-Darwin, Ra components from fore, in this to near 2 y re not in phas The tip-off e from the previ ver about a 12- riod was shorten this was rring near from the pa-Darwin) the two case the ears, the e, and the for this ous trough mo period ing. k ea to apag ted and tren sha rai 11 T Earw .4) . rly 1975 E time of oc OS Islands activity occurred m ds appear How index nfall (Fi arawa rain in corapon 1 Nino event occurr currence and intens and northwestern S in the western eq uch earlier than to represent what trough correlates g. 9. 3) . This cas fall peak preceded ent peak preceded ed about as forecast with ity in the region between outh America; however, uatorial Pacific was much expected. Nevertheless, actually happened. Note with the small peak in e was quite unusual since the El Nino, and the the Rapa component trough ; STATISTICAL EVIDENCE In the past the largest S.O. index variations (considering 12-mo running mean values) have usually been noted when using the Easter-Earwin index. In general, this one appears to be the best (Quinn and Zopf 1976) , not only for monitoring what is occurring, but also for anticipating what will occur in the eastern equatorial Pacific, At times the Juan Fernandez-Darwin index is also of great value for these purposes. For activity in the western equatorial Pacific, the other indices are particularly useful. Statistical analyses were pe rf ormed coefficient £, at various lags, betw between the indices and rainfall for va equatorial Pacific (consi dering 12-m Table 9.1 shows the highest negativ equatorial lew component (Darwin) 1 ccrapcnents (Juan Fernandez, Easter, Tot indices by 2-5 months. These fig degree of correlation between changes t core areas Table 9. 2 sh ows highest rainfall pe aks and troughs at Tarawa (1 2-3 months behind index troughs to obtain correlation een index components and rious sites in the western o running mean values) . e correlations when the ags the subtropical high egegie, and Rapa) of the ures also reflect the high aking place in the two negative correlations when N21', 172E56') lag about and peaks respectively. 181 Section 9 Table 9.3 shows the same general relationship between the Washington Island (4N43', 160W25') rainfall and the various indices. Similar relationships have been noted between the indices and rainfall data for other western equatorial Pacific sites. Statistical evaluations show that the Eapa-Darwin index usually gives the earliest indication for equatorial activity since the highest negative correlations between it and the associated rainfall features occur when rainfall lags 3-4 months behind the index. Likewise, changes in the Rapa component usually show up further in advance of the coirplementary Darwin changes (5 months) than do the other ridge component changes (2-4 months) . EISCUSSION The remarkatle consistency between trends of the various indices (Fig. 9.1), the high negative correlation coefficients between 12-mo running mean values of indices and rainfall amounts at western equatorial Pacific sites (Tables 9.2, 9.3), and the favorable lag indications between index and rainfall trends, indicate that this time-series analytical approach can be very useful for monitoring and predicting large-scale changes in the equatorial Pacific and certain associated changes in neighboring regions (e.g.. El Nino invasions). It appears that the approach is compatible with the type, quality, and quantity of the data available over the poorly sampled equatorial and South Pacific, since it makes full use cf the higher quality time-series data which is very scarce over all oceanic regions. When one uses this approach in conjunction with the routinely prepared synoptic weather analyses, SST analyses, and satellite cloud cover photos, one can realize more fully not only what is currently taking place in the atmospheric and oceanic tropospheres over this sparsely sampled region, but can also anticipate the changes in thermal, circulation, and weather patterns that are likely to take place in the future. The use of additional indices in this time-series analytical method increases one's insight into the sequence and intensity of changes taking place in the equatorial Pacific and adds confidence to the outlook when there is general aqreement between the index trends. Darwin and Broome, Australia, have been found particularly effective for representing the equatorial low core of the Southern Oscillation ; however, Djakarta, Indonesia, and other sites in the general vicinity have been noted (as expected) to show similar 12-mo running mean trends in their pressure values. The islands Juan Fernandez, Easter, Totegegie, Eapa, and Tahiti have been found highly effective for registering the pressure changes in the South Pacific subtropical high core of the Southern Oscillation. Ship N (BON, 140W) data (Quinn and Zopf, in press) and data taken from analyses for the former position of Ship N (Ship N ceased 182 Section 9 operation in June 1974) have been used to reflect S.O. effects on the northeast Pacific subtropical high. THE FORECAST METHOD The forecast method applies primarily to the nature of the initial El Nino event following relaxation from a high 12-mo running mean peak and not to the occurrence or recurrence of a later El Nino-type event when running means of the indices remain low or return to a low value after a short excursion upward into a smaller secondary peak (Quinn and Zopf, in press). In cases of the latter nature, outlooks must be of a much shorter duration, or the alternative is a much more speculative long-range outlook which must reach beyond the indications of the existing trend and depend heavily on experience gained from case history studies of analogous developments, along with an assumed or projected S.O. period. (Here it must be realized that the time involved in relaxation from the high preevent peak to the projected trough determines to a large extent how far in advance of an event occurrence a fairly firm outlook can be given.) If conditions are such that a large interannual fluctuation is underway and all signs [e.g., the 12-month running mean peak value for the index is 13 mb or more, the Easter component of this peak is 1C22 rob or ircre, the rise to the preevent peak takes near 18 months or more, the falling trend from the peak reaches a rate near 0.33 mb/mo, the preevent 3-mo running mean trend is similar to that for the pre-1957 and pre-1972 cases (Fig. 9.2) ] indicate the likelihood that the interannual trough will occur near the midpart of the following year (and thereby be in phase with a regular annual trough), then it is likely that a strong El Nino invasion will occur. If the fluctuations are out of phase (i.e., the interannual trough occurs near the beginning of the following year) , the El Nine event will be a weak one. RECENT INEEX TRENDS AND INDICATIONS By mid-1975 a change from the falling or level trend near the beginning of 1975 in the 12-mo running mean trends of the indices (considering that these running mean points fall 6 months behind the latest month of data) was indicated, and an outlook was prepared which called for the plots to rise to a secondary peak by middle to late 1975 and then to start falling off in late 1975 to a trough in 1976 with a likelihood of heavy western equatorial Pacific precipitation in the latter half of the 1976-early 1977 period. The outlook for the secondary peak was quite firm; it vas based primarily on the immediate trends of the indices and 183 Section 9 their components (Figs. 9.1, 9 . U) , but also on an assumed S.O. period of a little less than 2 years, and an assumed analogy to the 1963-64 index trends (Fig. 9.1). The fall to the trough in 1976 was more speculative and based on the assumed short S.O. period and an assumed analogy to the 196U-65 index trends (Fig. 9.1) . The outlook did not change and was presented as such on 2 October 1975 at the Eastern Pacific Oceanic Conference. The rise tc secondary peaks in the indices has proceeded pretty much as expected so far and accompanying Peruvian coastal and equatorial sea temperatures have also reacted as expected. CONCLUDING REMARKS The time-series analytical approach, as applied to the S.O. indices and their components, appears to be quite effective for monitoring large-scale meteorological and oceanographic changes in the equatorial Pacific and certain closely associated changes that occur in neighboring regions (e.g.. El Nino). It also shows considerable promise for use in foreshadowing these changes in circulation and weather activity 1-6 months in advance. Its use was predicated on the exceptionally poor synoptic surface data coverage over the southeast Pacific. The method seems to be particularly suited to coping with the severe surface data limitation over this large and important oceanic region, since the 12-mo running means of the indices bring out quite clearly the more subtle long-term trends which appear to be very closely associated with large-scale changes in southeast trade wind strength and their effects on equatorial Pacific meteorolcqical and oceanographic conditions. It is believed that this approach can add much to the value of the routinely prepared snapshot-type products, e.g., synoptic weather analyses (which have a poor and highly variable coverage over this region), satellite weather, and sea temperature analyses, by providing developmental continuity and an indication of the direction and magnitude of the long-term changes taking place over this region. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I thank the Chief of the Naval Weather Service and the Director of the Hydrcgraphic Institute of the Armada de Chile; the Chief of the Meteorological Service of Polynesie Francaise; the Director of the Meteorological and Geophysical Institute, Djakarta, Indonesia; the Director of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology; and the National Climatic Center, Environmental Data Service, NOAA, for their invaluable support to this study. I am greatly indebted to Forrest R. Miller of the Inter- American Tropical Tuna Commission and Richard Evans of the Southwest 184 Section 9 Fisheries temperat Pacific. Center, NMFS, for their timely information on sea temperatures and veather conditions over the eastern tropical I also thank Clayton Creech for his excellent support in data processing and David Zopf for his participation in this project. Support by the National Science Foundation under the North Pacific Experiment cf the International Decade of Ocean Exploration through NSF Grant No. OCE 75-21907 is gratefully acknowledged. IITEPATURE CITED QUINN, W. H. 1976. El Nino, anomalous equatorial Pacific conditions and their prediction. In Goulet, J. R. , Jr. (compiler) , The environment of the United States living marine resources - 197a, p. 11-1 — 11-18. U.S. Dep. Commer., Natl. Ocean. Atmos. Admin., Natl. Mar. Fish. Serv., MARMAP (Mar. Resour. Monit. Assess. Predic. Prog.) Contrib. 104. QUINN, W. H., and D. 0. ZOPF. In press. The Southern anomalies, and El Nino. Oscillation , Geofis. Int. equatorial Pacific WYRTKI, K. , E. STPOUP, W. PATZERT, R. WILLIAMS, and W. QUINN. 1976. Predicting and observing El Nine. Science (Wash., D.C.) 191:343-346. 185 Table 9.1. — Lag correlation coefficients between 12-mo running mean pressure sites (Juan Fernandez, Easter, Totegegie, Rapa) and at Darwin. Easter and Darwin -0.593 - .653 - .703 - .741 - .758 - .759 - .744 - .713 1948-75 Lag in Ji lan Fernandez Months (Da and Darwin -1 rwin ahead -0 .463 of ridge site) -0 (no lag) - .478 1 (ri ah dge site ead of Darwin^ - .494 2 - ,504 3 - .508 4 - .504 5 - .493 6 - .473 7 Period of record 1911-75 lean pressure at ridge Totegegie Rapa and and Darwin Darwin -0.613 -0.495 - .656 -.586 - .686 -.663 - .701 -.730 - .699 -.778 - .682 -.809 - .652 -.825 - .604 -.819 -.795 1952-75 1951-75 Table 9.2. — Lag correlation coefficients between 12-mo running mean pressure Indices (Juan Fernandez-Darwin, Easter-Darwin, Totegegie-Darwin, Rapa-Darwin) and Tarawa rainfall. JF-D Index and Tarawa Rainfall E-D Index and Tarawa Rainfall T-D Index and R-D Index and Tarawa Rainfall Tarawa Rainfall -1 (rain ahead of pressure) 0 (no lag) 1 (pressure ahead of rain) 2 3 4 5 6 Period of record -0.664 -0.682 -0.675 -0.550 - .702 - .731 - .722 - .619 - .722 - .765 - .752 - .676 - .723 - .780 - .762 - .714 - .707 - .776 - .751 - .733 - .674 - .754 - .720 - .7.-J2 - .626 - .670 - .566 - .655 - .605 - .677 1948-75 1948-75 1952-75 1951-75 Table 9.3. — Lag correlation coefficients between 12-mo running mean pressure indices (Juan Fernandez-Darwin, Easter-Darwin, Totegegie-Darwin, Rapa-Darwin) and Vjashington Island rainfall. Lag in Months JF-D Index and E-D Index and Wash. Rainfall Wash. Rainfall T-D Index and Wash. Rainfall R-D Index and Wash. Rainfall 1 0 (rain ahead of pressure) (no lag) -0.627 - .651 -0.663 - .708 -0.671 - .714 -0.601 - .667 1 2 (pressure of rain) ahead - .660 - .655 - .740 - .754 - .742 - .752 - .725 - .764 3 - .631 - .751 - .741 - .784 4 - .593 - .733 - .713 - .783 5 - .545 - .673 - .771 6 - .504 - .658 - .618 - .739 of record 1946-73 1948-73 1952-73 1951-73 186 rO CM — O (j^ ro ro - g CO r- (£> If) Q en 00 N CD IT) in 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 IT) N • • • • ^ h- 01 • • • • 0> • , , • . ' . - ^ ' « • M- . • ,* « ,* Jt N ^ • , • N cn . • • 0) :* •• , • ^ .• ', ro ' •, ' . ', ro N • • , • , • , N cr> • • _ • ^ •, cn • • • , * • . • , . • • (M • • ^ • OJ ^ . • * , , • , * . • ^ " , • , • h- • • • •* r^ 52 .' .•* .;' * * a> • • • • o •. • , : o r^ • • • • h- 91 '•. '. • .^ 91 • . ■, • , (Tl ; , • / • ^ U> / • ^ • ^ • ^ •, •, •, i , « * 00 ," .' 2 / on «) ^ • ^ ' ^ • ^ • 10 (y> ' • • • C7> . ' , " . • , • • . ,' • • ^ N • *, • / r^ at : ; / ^ : '. *: • , ,' • • ^ •^ iS ". \ f« O) •. • • ^ en • . • , •\ t , , * , !(^ ." \ ,• •, in 91 '.• . • • ,• ' 10 * ^ / • itf ^* , • ^* , • ^ - •■ •v.. *, J 10 * . • ^ , lO • ■ \ '. fO li) • • a '0 2} ..• . • • • 0} • • • « < *•. .••' CM 0} " , • • . 0} 1 1 1 [ . •■| 1 1 1 .1- ■| 1 1 .-'i 1 1 1 \ .-] 1 1 i5 0} ro CM — 01 CO ID IT) O CT) £< "a 5 « CO (X) in a-jp a-3 a-i Q-U ^ c C (D (D (D £ (D E ^ q> Q Q. £ *? &" 5 « (D CO > — — ® 0) E c « 0) o> >- V ® O) !t (D T3 O £c 12 ^ Q 0) liJ £ ^-' ■^ c ° ^ ii ♦^ C ■D i2 e « o « Q. CO O (D 35 <0 0) c ^ C (0 '- c = - 5 2 Q I:- 1 ® 5 « -?§ ?:^- D C <= o) iS iS 187 (IAIdlAI£) NIMdVa-bl31SV3 CO 0} r o h- 1 r m m ,4_ o> o to CO r CO o fc V> 3 CO < « -C r .4_ * o <1> CO n o ■o TJ E C CO a> c- u c 4^ m « (0 ■a 0) ^ c (D o CO a CO 0) UJ c c o 0) 1 (0 (1> c CO i .—^ F J3 O) b c c <1> c T 3 m w U) > u. d) 188 o o lO O O O -, If) o y (\J oJ !£} o _ !^ en oo o o o o o in Q ir> o in tn OJ i E c "o q: o o o CE (Ti CO X} c E * a> s ( > r o (1) u. k. n 0) tr Q O 3 nr 1^' ? (1) CL OJ O Q O O O in O in O in rO fO (\l <\) — (LULU) IID^UlOy J \ \ L o - in ID m "O c CO en T3 c (0 (/> , . Irt t-- a) o T— « O a> CO c CD < CO (0 1- o o ■o c ^-^ en F E T5 ^-^ c — CO CO CO c CO CO m O 3 "to" < x: CO c n o CO E CC C\J c 1 — 0) CI> r 1 ,4_ u> o £i (1) ^— . n u n £ E v s- CO CO CO £ ■o Q. 2 O o 0) Q. ^ en u. 0) c o o F Q. CO c CO CD E O) c c c 3 (QLU) 33U3J9^^!a 9jnSS9JcJ a 1- I CO o> (D 3 189 O O f-, en oD r- lO in — y Q Q o o o o o g o 1975 1974 (j^ooteoin^ggg ogggooggg 1973 I960 1972 1959 1971 CO in 0} in : •. 5} 1969 •.10 in 01 1968 : in . • in 01 1967 -a- : '.in : ® CO W 0) >> CO ^ oS oT '" £ J o w CN 3 ^ < O ® NIMdVa l^dlAIZI •g "E 0) o Q. O gi ii. 190 Section 10 SUNSPOT ACTIVITY AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS IN THE NOFTHEFN NORTH PACIFIC OCEANI Felix Favorite and W, James Ingraham, Jr. During periods of sunspot maxima (approximately every 11 years) the mean winter position of the center of the Aleutian low pressure system shifts from the Gulf of Alaska to the western Aleutian Islands, and the mean, cyclonic, wind-stress transport of warm Pacific surface waters into the Gulf of Alaska is reduced by roughly 20%. Coastal sea level data in the Gulf do not reflect an 11-yr cycle, but spectral energy densities indicate an approximate 6-yr periodicity also present in trans- Pacific annual mean sea surface temperatures that, in the last one or two decades, parallels large year classes of Pacific herring in southeastern Alaska, large escapements of sockeye salmon fry in the Bristol Bay area, and maxima in the January catch of Dungeness crab in Alaska. Because of the wide geographical distribution of individual fish stocks and the limited facilities available for assessment purposes, it has been necessary to rely on various statistical methods to ascertain estimates of distribution and abundance. However, there are still large year-to-year differences in patterns that in many instances may be related to short- or long-term changes in environmental conditions and processes. Knowledge of such phenomena could result in improved estimates of stock condition and sustainable yields, and forecasts of these conditions could result in better sampling techniques and resource management measures. One periodic phenomenon that might influence oceanic conditions is sunspot activity. The literature on this subject is extensive, identifying also a double sunspot cycle of 22-23 years, and an a cycle of alternating 80- and 100-year periods. Apparent relations to biological (Gilhousen 1960) and weather (Newman 1965; Mitchell 1965) phenomena are becoming more frequent. However, few investigations have ^Summarized from: J. Oceanogr. Soc. Japan 32:107-115. ^Northwest Fisheries Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, 2725 Montlake Blvd., East, Seattle, WA 98112. 191 Section 10 considered possible effects of sunspot activity on ocean conditicns. Mean pressure data from the winter half-years (October-March) of 3-yr periods centered around the sunspot maxima, and 3-yr periods centered around the minima, indicate a pronounced westward shift in the mean position of the Aleutian low pressure system from the Gulf of Alaska to the western Aleutian Islands during years of sunspot maxima (Fig. 10.1). Wind-stress transport calculations indicate a 20?? reduction in northward transport into the Gulf during periods of sunspot maxima compared to that during sunspot minima, but there are no direct current measurements available to permit showing any actual changes in flow patterns. Nor is there any indication in coastal sea level data to suggest a dominant 11-yr periodicity, but this is net considered proof that changes in circulation and upwelling do not occur. There is an approximate 5- to 6-yr fluctuation in trans-Pacific sea surface temperature maxima that is largely in phase not only with mean sea level maxima in the Gulf of Alaska (most clearly evident at Prince Bupert during 1950-7U), but also with solar phenomena. Although deviations of about 5 cm in sea level can be accounted for as a result of changes in specific volume of the surface layer due to seasonal heating and cooling frcir winter to summer (temperature range of 5-10C), the observed deviations in excess of 10 cm cannot be attributed solely to the 1-2C changes in temperature associated with the 5- to 6-yr temperature cycle. The 5- to 6-yr cycle does have subtle, if not direct, relations to living marine resources. Reid (in press) has shown that dominant year classes of Pacific herring in southeastern Alaska from 1950 to 1958 occurred in 1953 and 1958, years of temperature maxima in that area (Favorite and McLain 1973). Hoopes (1973) has shown that the Alaskan Dungeness crab landings in January reached maxima in 1963 and 1964, and again in 1968 that were nearly 3 times the miniira in 1961, 1966, and 1971 — roughly 12-13 vs. U-5 million pounds (Favorite, in press). Finally, the 5- to 6-yr temperature cycle appears to have a parallel in sockeye salmon abundance in river and lake systems in Bristol Eay. The annual pack of canned sockeye salmon in western Alaska for 1950-7U (Fig. 10.2) shows maxima in 1952, 1956, 1961, 1965, and 197C that are obviously out of phase with the temperature cycle, but if one considers the critical early life stages in lake and river systems 2 to 4 years earlier, a parallel is evident. Considering only the three recent maxima, 83fc of the sockeye salmon returning to Bristol Bay in 1960 grew in fresh water from spring 1957 to spring 195 8; 88% of those returning in 1965, from spring 1961 to spring 15^3; and 82% of those 192 Section 10 returning in 1970, from spring 1966 to spring 1968.^ Although in terms of nuirbers, spawning success is certainly dependent on the number of spawning adults and other factors, this pattern of fish returns suggests that the sea surface temperature maxima phase of the recent and prolonged trans-Pacific cycle could have a salutary effect on spawning survival. Unfortunately, any teleconnections or servomechanisms between sunspot activity and physical or biological phenomena on earth are not clear at this time. It should be obvious that the search for cause and effect relations between environmental conditions and fluctuations in fishery data is exceedingly complex, requiring not only extensive data, but multidisciplinary approaches as well, before accurate forecasts will be possible. Forecasts of conditions based en trends indicated in this paper would be imprudent because the end of the IOC-year sunspot cycle will occur in the mid-1970 's. This should result in two consecutive negative maxima, and deviations from established conditions may occur. ■^Percentage data obtained from: Donald E. Rogers. Foracast of the sockeye salmon run to Bristol Bay in 1973 and 1975. University of Washington College of Fisheries, Fisheries Ees. Inst. Circ. No. 73-1, 33 p., and Circ. No. 73-3, U5 p. LITERATDPE CITED FAVORITE, F. In press. The physical environment of biological systems in the Gulf of Alaska. Arctic Institute of North America Symposium on Science and Natural Resources in the Gulf of Alaska, Anchorage, October 16 and 17, 1975. FAVORITE, F., and D. R. WcIAIN. 1973. Coherence in trans-Pacific movements of positive and negative anomalies of sea surface temperature , 1953-60. Nature (lond.) 244:139-143. GIIHOUSEN, P. 1960. Migratory behavior of adult Fraser River sockeye. Int. Pac. Salmon Fish. Ccmm. , Prog. Rep., 78 p. 193 Section 10 HOOPES, D. T. 1973. Alaska's fishery resources — the Dungeness crab, U.S. Dep. Ccinmer., Natl. Mar. Fish. Serv., Fish, Facts 6, 14 p, MITCHELL, J. M., Jr. 1965. The solar constant. In Kutsbach, J. E. , and E. H. Shakeshaft (editors) , Proceedings of the Seminar on Possible Responses of Weather Phenomena to Variable Extra-Terrestrial Influences. Natl. Cent. Atmos. Res., NCAR Tech. Note, TN-8. NEWMAN, E. 1965. Statistical investigation of anomalies in winter tem- perature record of Boston, Massachusetts. J. Appl. Meteorol. 4:706-13. REID, G. M. 1972. Alaska's fishery resources^ — the Pacific herring. U.S. Dep. Commer. , Natl. Mar, Fish, Serv. , Fish. Facts 2, 20 p. 194 (60* E teo'w 60'N (A) (B) (C) 1966-69 1921-24 ^^O o ^^ 1945-48 ^-^ « 1915-18^^^-^ oo@ o / 1935-38 MEAN POSITION ( 1004. Imb) (STO DEV = 2 1) (N- I =1.2) ^sJ 34 1942-45 ^1955-58 M905-08 1952- 1962-65 55 MEAN POSITION { 1002.2 mb) (STD DEV » 1.2 ) ^J Moximo (Positive or negotive polarity) { J Minima 60»N 50* 40* Figure 10.1.— Mean sea level pressure distributions (mb - 1000) for winter half-years (October-March) of 3-yr periods centered around sunspot maxima (A) and sunspot minima (B), and locations of centers of the Aleutian low for individual periods (C), 1899-1974. 195 1951 1960 1970 Figure 10.2.— Annual western Alaska canned sockeye salmon pack (millions of cases; 48 1-lb cans) 1951-74 [from The Fisherman's News 31(2):4]. 196 Section 11 A SINGLE-LAYER HYDRO DYNAMIC AL-NUMERICAI MODEL OF THE EASTERN BERING SEA SHELF James R. Hastings INTRODUCTION A single-layer vertically integrated hydrcdynamical-numerical (HN) model has been adopted for study of the characteristic flow of the eastern Bering Sea shelf. This model is similar in function and scope to that developed by Hansen, ^ and currently used by the Environmental Prediction Research Facility (U.S. Navy 1974). Vertically integrated eguations of motion and an equation of continuity, utilizing wind stress and bottom friction terras, are solved using an explicit time dependent finite difference approach. Results of these calculations are given as sea surface variation and instantaneous components of integrated velocity over the computational area. PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE AREA The unique physical characteristics of the Bering Sea shoreward of the continental shelf are shown by the extreme delineation between summer and winter conditions, the great expanse of continental shelf, and the extremely shallow bathymetry. Although the Bering Sea is generally considered an extension of the North Pacific Ocean, it does exhibit unique characteristics which must be addressed when attempting to simulate this environment. The entire continental shelf area of the Bering Sea is covered with ice approximately six months of the year. This ice is of local formation and tends to melt entirely by late spring/early summer. For this reason, the efforts to model tidal manifestations of the Bering Sea continental shelf surface waters ^Northwest Fisheries Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, 2725 Montlake Blvd., East, Seattle, Wa 98112. ^Hansen, W., Institut fur Meereskundbe, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Federal Republic of Germany. 197 Section 11 were concentrated on those conditions which are indicative of the summer months. Along the southeastern Siberian coast the tides are diurnal, becoming mixed at about 60N; northward of 62N simidiurnal tides occur. Mixed tides occur along the Alaskan coast from Bering Strait to the Alaska Peninsula. Except in the major embayments around the margins of the Bering Sea the tidal amplitudes are generally small, with most tides being less than 1 m. GRID SYSTEM The grid system used for the solution of these finite difference equations is staggered in both time and space (Fig. 11.1). There are three different sets cf grid points in this system. The z-points (water elevations) are at the intersections of the grid, the u-points (u-components of horizontal velocity) are to the right of the z-points, and the v-points (v-components of horizontal velocity) are below the corresponding z-points. These points are used to provide the computational matrix and real depth inputs to the model. The computational network imposed over the continental shelf of the Bering Sea consists of 1,20U units, each 38 km square. This 28x43 array has a horizontal extent greater than 1,500 km in an east-west direction, and extends from Amaknak Island in the southeast through the Bering Strait (Fig. 11.2) . Land areas are separated from water by a straight line boundary (dashed line. Fig. 11.2) which passes through either the u-points, in a north-south direction, or the v-points, in an east-west direction. The southern boundary, extending from Amaknak Island tc Cape Navarin, is the tidal input boundary. PAEAMETEEIZATICN AND INITIALIZATION OF INPUTS Precision is built into the model in the form of the forward-looking finite difference scheme, but accuracy is dependent upon the selection and interpretation of the natural phenomena which make up the boundary conditions. At the inception of this model, several assumptions and simplifications of the boundary conditions were made; but as our knowledge of the Bering Sea environment increases, it will be possible, and mandatory, to make further refinements in these boundary conditians. The most important single input parameter which the HN model employs in shallow water is the tidal input. The tidal amplitude and phase speed variance are two of the driving impetuses in the numerical computation scheme. Also, the geostrophic wind component may be represented by prescribing a longitudinal and/or 198 Section 11 transverse slope to the sea surface at each time step. Data from two tidal stations are usually required; and, because of the boundary conditions at the shelf edge, these should be located at the extremities of the shelf. Amaknak Island data are available at the southeast edge of the shelf, but data from Port Sibir and Anadyr Bay were interpolated to derive data at Cape Navarin in the west. A lag time of 8 hours exists between high tides at the east and west boundaries (Fig. 11.3). This variation was assumed to be linear over the extremely long (1,500 km) lateral extent of the input boundary, as few open ocean tidal observations have been reported which could provide greater control across this area. Therefore, the initial tidal inputs to this model consist of an interpolation between Cape Navarin in the west (62N30', 177E) and Amaknak Island in the east (SUNBO', 166W30')- SIMULATED TIDAL HEIGHT AND CURRENT DATA Applying this particular model over such a large area should and does show considerable spatial variations in sea surface heights and tidal currents that should be substantiated by additional tidal data. After computational stability has been achieved, instantaneous sea surface height and tidal current variation may be studied. Three particular instances are examined: variation of the entire system approximately 4 hours before low tide at the eastern input boundary; approximately 4 hours before the subsequent high tide; and 4 hours before low tide with boundary conditions changed to simulate a typical summer southerly wind of 5 m/s blowing steadily over the entire area for 2 days. This provides an indication of the temporal and spatial variation of the system while under the influence of an additional environmental variable. Four hours before low tide at the eastern boundary, sea surface height variations show several interesting features (Fig. 11.4). Over the open portion of the Bering Sea shelf there appears to be a smooth, even variation in sea surface perturbation due to tidal influence; with no land masses to impose horizontal flow restrictions and a minimum of frictional resistance due to the influence of bottom topography, the tidal height variation is an orderly transition between the influences of the tidal inputs. Nunivak Island, northwest of Bristol Bay in the north central portion of the system, indicates major tidal height differences around the island, with iraximum elevations at the northeast corner of the island. The influences of land boundaries, bottom friction, and tidal confluence cause a tidal difference around the island of greater than 60 cm. This is in contrast to conditions at St. Matthew Island in the south central portion of the grid, where spatially the absolute variation is small, but the temporal variation is considerable. Tidal height variations 199 Section 11 north of St, Lawrence Island are small, generally less than 20 cm. An instantaneous view of the tidal currents associated with these tidal heights (Fig. 11.5) indicates a general northwestward flow over the shelf in the southern portion of the area; cross shelf flow exists in the area betweer Nunivak Island and St. Matthew Island. Higher velocities are exhibited northwestward around St. Matthew Island and southwestward in the area northeast of Nunivak Island. This cross shelf flow is also apparent in the western portion of the shelf, whereas the currents flow in a general southwestward direction out of the Gulf of Anadyr. North and east of St. Lawrence Island a general northeastward flow exists, with currents funneling into Norton Sound. Currents flow northeastward into Eristol Bay, a divergence from the general northwestward flew ever the shelf. Over the open portion of the Bering Sea shelf, average currents are less than 20 cm/s; this approximates speeds determined by Goodman et al. (1942) and Arsen'ev (1967). Four hours before the subsequent high tide at the eastern boundary, tidal elevations are generally reversed (Fig. 11.6). Maximum elevations at Nunivak Island occur at the southwestern end of the island. At St. Matthew Island surface height is a niaximura, whereas a minimum was manifest earlier. Minimum heights are observed in northern Bristol Bay. Tidal currents show an almost complete reversal in direction but similar speeds (Fig. 11.7) . The southern portion of the area shows a general southeastward flow over the shelf; cross shelf flow in a northeastward direction exists in the area between Nunivak Island and St. Matthew Island. Flow over the western area of the shelf is generally northward. Tidal currents between Nunivak Island and the Alaskan mainland exhibit a total reversal of flow, as do the currents in northernmost Bristol Bay. Although currents between St. Lawrence Island and southern Norton Sound now flow southward, flow into Norton Sound is still indicated. Although in winter most of the area is covered with ice, in summer wind stress plays an important role in the formation of current patterns. After the model reached stability a mean southerly wind of 5 m/s was imposed on the system. This was done in an attempt to simulate more accurately the actual conditions during this period. When comparing the change in the circulation pattern due to the influence of the wind, several important manifestations are observed. Generally speaking, the flow near the land masses shows a significant increase in velocity, as shown by the currents near Nunivak Island and the northern portion of the area between Norton Sound and Bering Strait (Fig. 11.8) . A reversal in flow is observed through the Bering Strait and adjacent to the continental land mass south of Norton Sound. The influence of the wind has served to set up two anticyclonic gyres in the circulation system, one southeast of the Gulf of Anadyr in the west and another in the southern 200 Section 11 pcrtion of Bristol Bay in the east. Figure 11.9 indicates the predominant tidal current field in the northeast portion of Bristol Bay over a 44-h time period. The more intense flow occurs as maximum flood and maximum ebb stages of the tide are approached. The less intense, more confused flow corresponds to high and low slack water. This flow is characteristic of that reported by Dodimead et al. (1963) from drift stick observations in northeastern Bristol Bay. In an attempt to eguate data generated by the HN model with conditions which exist in the natural environment, grid point 28x16 (MxN) north of St. Lawrence Island was analyzed over a 60-h time period. Records indicate that the tide in this area has a mean range of approximately 30 cm. Data from the model show a variation of approximately 27 cm and variation over time corresponds closely to actual tidal data (Fig. 11.10). Apparently the most pressing problem concerning the use of this model involves the northern boundary conditions through the Bering Strait. The initial assumption of zero flow through Bering Strait yields unrealistic current values in this pcrtion of the model. Coachman and Aagaard (1966) suggest a permanent northward flew of approximately 50 cra/s through Bering Strait. This prescription of flow was not applied in this model; thus the results with reference to currents near Bering Strait are not entirely realistic. CONCLUSIONS This study has shown temporal variation area by simplifying the inputs and assumptions about the system. Eesults that it could be a useful tool in stu variations, even considering the scale model cf this size. Nowhere else oceanic tidal currents of this area pre be used to determine critical areas w should be conducted, and to verify unus cross shelf flow between Nunivak Islan they may also serve in their present fo fish larvae transport and dispersion, simulation will be made as additional b river runoff, permanent currents, v verifications by direct current raeasur into the model. A more definitive require a more comprehensive solution t of the system and the evolution from model into a multi-layer model. s of flow over a large by making certain initial of this model indicate dying and predicting tidal limitations inherent in a are even gross patterns of sented. These results may here current meter studies ual features (e.g., the d and St. Matthew Island) ; rm for initial studies of Further advances in model oundary conditions, i.e., ariable wind fields, and ements, are incorporated study of this area will o the complex tidal inputs this existing single-layer 201 Section 11 IITEPATUEE CITEE ABSEN'EV, V. S. 1967. (Currents and vater masses of the Eering Sea.) [In Puss., Engl. summ.], 135 p. (Transl. 1968, 146 p., Natl. Mar. Fish. Serv. , Northwest Fish. Cent., Seattle.) COACHMAN, L. M., and K. AAGAARD. 1966. On the water exchange through Bering Strait. Limnol. Oceanogr. 11:44-59. DOEIMEAC, A. N., F. FAVOEITE, and T. HIRANO. 1963. Salmon of the North Pacific Ocean, Part II: Review of oceanography of the subarctic Pacific region. Int. North Pac. Fish. Comm., Bull. 13, 195 p. GOODMAN, J. R., J. A. LINCOLN, I. 6. THOMPSON, and F. A. ZEDSLER. 1942. Physical and chemical investigations: Bering Sea, Bering Strait, Chukchi Sea during summers of 1937 and 1938. Univ. Wash., Publ. Oceanogr. 3:105-169. lAEVASTU, T., and K. RABE. 1972. A description of the EPRF hydrodynamical-numerical model. U.S. Navy Environmental Prediction Research Facility, Monterey, CA. EN VPREDESCHFAC Tech. Pap. 3-72, 49 p. THOMPSON, P. D. 1961. Numerical weather analysis and prediction. MacMillan Co., N.Y. , 170 p. U.S. NAVY. 1974. A vertically integrated hydrodynamical-numerical model (W. Hansen type). U.S. Navy Environmental Prediction Research Facility, Monterey, CA. ENVPREDRSCHFAC Tech. Note 1-74, 63 p. 202 m-2 n-2 n-1 N n n + 1 m-1 M m mt1 m+2 1 V ) ) ^ n + 2 Figure 11.1.— Computational grid for tiie finite difference scheme of the hydrodynamical- numerical model. M coordinates are in the x-direction; N coordinates are in the y-direc- tion; z = water elevation; u = x-component of horizontal velocity, on right of z; v = y-com- ponent of horizontal velocity, below the corresponding z. 203 54° Figure 11.2.— Computational grid boundaries imposed on the eastern Bering Sea shelf. 204 100' 50- TIDAL HEIGHT (cm) -50- -100-" 60 80 HOURS Figure 11.3.— Tidal height, over several cycles, at Cape Navarin (solid line) and Amaknak Island (dashed line). 205 Figure 1 1 .4. — Tidal heights (cm) over the eastern Bering Sea shelf 4 hours before low tide at the eastern boundary; initial con- dition of zero wind. 206 Figure 11.5.— Tidal currents over the eastern Bering Sea shelf 4 hours before low tide at the eastern boundary; initial condition of zero wind. 207 54" Figure 1 1 .6.— Tidal heights (cm) over the eastern Bering Sea shelf 4 hours before high tide at the eastern boundary; initial condition of zero wind. 208 Figure 11.7.— Tidal currents over the eastern Bering Sea shelf 4 hours before high tide at the eastern boundary; initial condition of zero wind. 209 Figure 11.8.— Tidal currents over the eastern Bering Sea shelf 4 hours before low tide at the eastern boundary; southerly wind of 5 m/s. 210 /c> ^L 60 ^^m V 58' iT y^^r 56' ^A J ♦ao M* Figure 11.9.— Surface tidal currents in tlie northeast portion of Bristol Bay over a 44-h time period; initial condition of zero wind. 211 20n 20 L 1 1 1 1 1 0 to 20 30 40 50 HOURS 60 Figure 11.10.— Tidal heights on the north side of St. Lawrence Island. Solid line is data generated by the model; dashed line is actual tidal data. 212 Section 12 VARIATIONS IN THE POSITION OF THE SHELF WATEE FRONT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BETWEEN CAPE ROMAIN AND GEORGES BANK IN 1975 John T. Gunnl INTRODUCTION Mcnitoring of the temporal variations of the Shelf Water front position provides important information for understanding the concentration of fish stocks, because of the accumulation of lever food chain organisms associated with the convergence zone of the front. Since the front may extend to the bottom over the continental shelf, as revealed by expendable bathythermograph (XBT) transects, its variations may affect the distribution, and thus the harvesting, of benthic and demersal organisms. Also, the frontal position may contribute to variation in recruitment and year class strength of species whose spawning and nursery areas are affected by the different water mass characteristics on either side of the front. An analysis of the position of the Shelf Water front for the period from June 1973, when appropriate satellite data first became available, through 1974 was presented previously by Ingham (1976). The present analysis for 1975 is similar, but includes a comparison of the trends in the frontal position between 1974 and 1975. SOURCE OF DATA The basis of this study is a weekly series of frontal charts (Fig, 12.1) .2 These charts are drawn from the best infrared NOAA satellite image of the week or a composite of several partial ^Atlantic Environmental Group, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, Narragansett , RI 02882. ^Experimental Gulf Stream Analysis Charts, Environmental Science Group, National Environmental Satellite Service, NOAA, Wash- ington, DC 20233. 213 Section 12 satellite images. The charts show the position of the following theriral features at the surface: Shelf Water, Slope Water, Gulf Stream, and warm and cold core Gulf Stream eddies ("rings"). The satellite imagery is recorded by an infrared radiometer, sensing in the 10,5-12.5 micron range, with a resolution at the sea surface of approximately 1 km at nadir. PFIMBEY EATA ANALYSIS Tc portray the variation of the shelf water frontal position, distances were measured to the front along standard bearing lines from selected coastal points (Fig. 12.2). The distances measured (in mm) from each satellite chart are converted to Ym and corrected for scale variation (ca + or - 5%) from chart to chart. These distances are then diminished by the distance along each bearing line to the 200-m isobath. The resulting values represent the distance from the shelf edge to the front; positive values are seaward and negative values shoreward from this isobath. TEENDS IN WEEKLY FECNTAL POSITIONS The graphs of weekly values for each bearing line (Figs. 12,3-12. 1U) reveal both spatial and temporal trends in the frontal position. By comparing adjacent graphs, events which occur at more than ore position can be identified, and by consulting the original satellite charts, possible causes can be discerned. In general, there is fair agreement between adjacent bearing lines regarding the onshore or offshore direction of excursions and general trends, although the magnitudes are sometimes quite different. N§5 iBSll]]^' Along the bearing lines out of Casco Bay (Figs. 12.3-12.5) two major events occurred on all three lines. Ir July there was a 25-60 km shoreward intrusion of the front from the 200-m isobath. No anticyclonic eddies were detected in the area during this time, and the only noteworthy feature was a large Gulf Stream meander to the southeast. The distance of this meander from the front (186 km) , however, reduces the likelihood that it caused the July intrusion. In September, another shoreward intrusion appears on all three Casco Bay bearings. Considerable Gulf Stream meandering and eddy activity at this time could have produced the intrusion. Mi^^le Atlantic: The middle Atlantic coast region, from off Nantucket to Cape Henry, was affected by strcrg fluctuations of the front in April and August. The excursion in April reached a 214 Section 12 maxiirum cf 140 km seaward on some bearing lines (Figs. 12.6-12.10) resulting in a considerable decrease in the area of Slope Water. No eddies were detected in the immediate area at this time. The shoreward intrusion in August (up to 115 km) was mainly due to an intrusion from the Gulf Stream that pushed the Shelf Water front closer to the coast and considerably disrupted its shape. South of the Sandy Hook bearing line the frontal position could net be detected during August because of cloud cover. The magnitude of variation in frontal position during 1975 ("Figs. 12.3-12.10) generally increased progressively north of the Albemarle Sound bearing line to the Casco Bay 120 bearing line, similar to 1974. There was, however, somewhat less variability along the Casco Bay lines in 1975 compared with 1 97U . MONTHLY MEAN FRONTAL POSITIONS A clear picture of the temporal nature of the Shelf Water front is given ty graphs cf the monthly mean positions versus time (Fig. 12.15). Note that the baseline for excursions is changed from the 200-m isobath used in the time series to the 2-yr mean value. This offsets the time series (Figs. 12.3-12.14) for each bearing differently and eases comparison of quasi-periodic variations. There is a ta along the b Although the years and am the first par excursions d are some exce Bay 140 wher year. Also, front is sh also shows th indication o seem to have SIC seasona earing lin magnitude o ong the bea t of each y uring the ptions to t e almost in late 197 oreward du is type of f it in 1 been aperio lity in the change of frontal es from Sandy Hook 130 to Case f the variation varies between ring lines, seaward excursions ear, January to April, and rest of the year. May to Decemb his, however, such as in 1975 no variation occurred during 4, on the Montauk 150 bearing ring October ajid November. Cas seasonality in 1974, but only 975, when the changes in fronta die. position 0 Bay 140. the two prevail in shoreward er. There for Casco the entire line , the CO Bay 120 a slight 1 position On the bearing lines south of Sandy Hook 130, the large gaps in the observations resulting from clouds, the weakness of the thermal gradient, and the limits to the area covered by the satellite are a problem in the analysis. The actual number of these gaps north of Cape Lookout is not large, but during the summer, cloud cover eliirinated observations for weeks at a time from Cape May south. Despite these gaps, a seasonal pattern in the Shelf Water frontal position may be detected in the Cape May, Cape Henry, and Albemarle Sound bearing lines, as evidenced in 215 Section 12 the graphs cf monthly mean values (Fig. 12.16), which is opposite to that in the area to the north. Here the front tends to be shoreward in the first part of the year, January to March or April, and seaward in the latter part of the year. This seasonality is quite evident off Albemarle Sound, but less so for the ether tvo bearing lines, due to the lack of observations. A large shoreward event, on the Sandy Hook bearing, in August 1975, when a Gulf Stream warm core eddy was passing through the area, also seems to affect Cape May and Cape Henry, but lack of data blurs definition on these last two bearings (see Figs. 12.9 and 12. 1C for weekly data). On the three most southerly bearings. Cape Lookout, Cape Fear, and Cape Homain, the lack of observations in the warm season prevents determination of whether there is seasonality in the frontal position or mainly aperiodic movements. Despite this, the displacements along these three bearing lines do parallel each other. YEARLY MEAN FBONTAL POSITIONS The yearly mean position cf the Shelf Water frcnt relative to the 200-m isobath and the standard deviation of these values along each of the bearing lines indicate that the Shelf Water front was farther inshore in 1975 than in 1974 (Table 12.1 and Fig. 12.16). The only exception was the northernmost bearing line. Although the differences (on the order of 10-15 km) in the mean positions between 1974 and 1975 are less than one standard deviation, the consistently more shoreward positions in 1975 and the similarity of the yearly trends in irean positions for the two years indicate that this shoreward displacement has some significance. The two years show parallelism in the relative positions of the front along each bearing line, with noticeable seaward displacements at the Montauk and Cape Henry bearing lines from the general north-south trend. The variability of the Shelf Water front's position, as indicated by the standard deviation, is shown to be fairly high, but relatively consistent for the two years, except on the bearing lines out of Casco Bay. In fact, the two lowest standard deviations in the two years occur at opposite ends of the coast, Casco Bay 140 in 1975 and Cape Lookout 135 in 1974. ' INTRUSION OF SICFE WATER OVER GEORGES EANK In the Georges Bank region, another representation of the excursions of the Shelf Water front was produced by measuring the percentage of Georges Bank covered by Slope Water as a function of time. These measurements substantiate this seasonality of the 216 Section 12 Shelf Water front as demonstrated previously (Fig. 12.16). As shown in Fi gure 1 2. 17 intrusions of the Shelf Water front onto January through May, the larg est intrusio 1974-75 covering only 7.5% of th e total ar December, the front is considera bly more act 9% and 17% coverage in 1974 and 3H% and 35% Although 1 975 had larger intrusions than intrusions in each year occurred in roughly June-July and September-October However, worth of data it is impossible to determ significant pattern. by the bearing lines there are no major Georges Bank from n in this pericd for ea . From June to ive, having peaks of coverage in 1975. 1974, the two major the same period, with only two years' ine if this is a LITERATURE CITED INGHAM, M. C. 1976. Variation in the Shelf Water front off the Atlantic coast between Cape Hatteras and Georges Bank. In Goulet, J. P., Jr. (compiler) , The environment of the United States living marine resources - 1974, p. 17-1--17-21. U.S. Dep. Commer.r Natl. Ocean. Atmos. Admin., Natl. War. Fish. Serv., MARMAP (Mar. Resour. Monit. Assess. Predic. Prog.) Contrib. 104. 217 Table 12.1. — Yearly mean and standard deviation of Shelf Water front position. 1 See Figure 12.2 2 Number of weekly positions of front. 3 Distance (km) of front from 200-m isobath; positive is seaward. Sample size ^ Mean separation ^ Standard deviation BEARING LINE ^ 1974 1975 1974 1975 1974 1975 Casco Bay 120° 30 38 45.4 72.2 70.9 59.0 Casco Bay 140° 31 38 35.4 0.4 64.0 22.6 Casco Bay 160° 36 r 41 6.1 -2.9 39.3 26.1 Nantucket 180° 37 35 -0.6 -5.6 38.5 37.8 Montauk Pt. 150° 34 35 19.8 8.8 36.7 38.3 Sandy Hook 130° 36 35 1.2 -4.4 46.8 45.0 Cape May 130° 38 34 4.1 -7.3 31.8 34.8 Cape Henry 95° 40 32 17.4 7.3 36.4 39.5 Albemarle Sd 90° 40 31 -11.5 -16.7 24.6 32.5 Cape Lookout 135° 24 31 -18.2 -24.5 20.1 28.9 Cape Fear 140° 19 28 -20.2 -35.8 40.5 38.4 Cape Romain 140° 21 22 -9.9 -40.2 43.4 33.3 218 EXPERIMENTAL GULF STREAM ANALYSIS NOAA.2 SATELLITE THERMAL INFRARED Observed: a1-3o flPg>«- i*>1t PLEASE FORWARD COMMENTS TOi NOAA.NESS Suite 300 3737 Branch Ave., S.E. Washington, D.C. 20031 Att'n: Environmental Sciences Group VHRR • • • • .BERMUDA clouds ' Gulf Stream cold eddy worm eddy Slope Water Shelf Water 'limit of observation sharp thermal gradient less distinct Ihermol front Figure 12.1.— Example of weekly Frontal Analysis Chart produced by the National Environmental Satellite Service, NOAA. 219 45^ 40* 35« 30^ 25' ± 1 -L 80** 75* 70* 65* Figure 12.2.— Reference points and bearing lines used in the portrayal of the time variation of the Shelf Water front relative to the 200-m isobath (dotted line). 220 E 300 200 100 H 0 -100 H CASCO BAY 120* - 1974 \/X ./ -\__x\/ JAN I FEB I MAR I APR I MAY I JUN I JUL I AUG I SEP I OCT I NOV I DEC 300 - 200 - E 100 H 0 -100 H / CASCO BAY I20» - 1975 /\j i\ / A^.-J si /V JAN I FEB I MAR I APR I MAY I JUN I JUL I AUG I SEP I OCT I NOV I DEC I Figure 12.3.— Shelf Water front position relative to the 200-m isobath along a 120-degree bearing line from Casco Bay, Maine; positive is seaward. CASCO BAY 140 •- 1974 300 200 100 0 -100 H JAN I FEB I MAR I APR I MAY I JUN I JUL I AUG I SEP I OCT I NOV I DEC E 300 200 - 100 - 0 - -100 CASCO BAY I40» - 1975 -^\X^--^.--~-^\ -•■-A/^-\--/x^.//"^- ./ JAN I FEB I MAR I APR ! MAY I J UN I JUL I AUG I SEP I OCT I NOV I DEC I Figure 12.4.— Shelf Water front position relative to the 200-m isobath along a 140-degree bearing line from Casco Bay, Maine; positive is seaward. 221 CASCO BAY I60»- 1974 ^ E 300 - 200 - 100 - 0 -100 H A, J \ V / •\^-A/*"*-^-^"\/'^ JAN I FEB I MAR I APR I MAY I JUN I JUL I AUG I SEP I OCT I NOV I DEC 300 -1 200 - E 100 0 - -100 - CASCO BAY I60« -1975 •'\. \/' /' /' JAN I FEB I MAR I APR I MAY I JUN I JUL I AUG I SEP I OCT I NOV I DEC I Figure 12.5.— Shelf Water front position relative to the 200-m isobath along a 160-degree bearing line from Casco Bay, Maine; positive is seawrard. E 300- 200- 100- 0- -100- JAN NANTUCKET IS. 180* - 1974 ■\ '•\/\^-.. ^•■ X^ / — \ -^■~v\- I FEB I MAR I APR I MAY I JUN I JUL I AUG I SEP I OCT I NOV I DEC I 300 -1 200- E 100- 0- -100- NANTUCKET IS. 180* - 1975 . — -v, A_.^— /- V ,^* JAN I FEB I MAR I APR I MAY I JUN I JUL I AUG I SEP I OCT I NOV I DEC I Figure 1 2.6.— Shelf Water front position relative to the 200-m isobath along a 1 80-degree bearing line from Nan- tucket Island, Mass.; positive is seaward. 222 MONTAUK POINT I50'- 1974 300 200 - E 100 - 0 -100 "' \/-. V/"-._.. JAN 1 FEB I MAR I APR I MAY I JUN I JUL I AUG 1 SEP I OCT I NOV I DEC MONTAUK POINT 150* - 1975 500 - 200 - A 100 - f \ 0 - .—>../"■ \/-\/ V- / ~~ A/ r\/ — "*"•-'•'■ ■100 - V JAN 1 FEB 1 MAR 1 APR MAY 1 JUN 1 JUL 1 AUG SEP 1 OCT 1 NOV DEC 1 Figure 12.7.— Shelf Water front position relative to the 200-m isobath along a 150-degree bearing line from Montauk Point, N.Y.; positive is seaward. SANDY HOOK 130* - 1974 JAN I FEB I MAR I APR I MAY I JUN I JUL I AUG I SEP I OCT t NOV I DEC Figure 12.8.— Shelf Water front position relative to the 200-m isobath along a 130-degree bearing line from Sandy Hook, N.J.; positive is seaward. 223 CAPE MAY I30»- 1974 300 -. 200 - 100 - 0 - -100 - y y ~~"^. ^/ ~ •--./■ \/' ^^. / A JAN I FEB I MAR I APR I MAY I JUN I JUL I AUG I SEP I OCT I NOV I DEC CAPE MAY I30*-I975 300 - 200 - 100 - ;■' ' ] 0 - -^./- • •--.'• ^- -^-\/^-^/ r^-y- -100 - JAN 1 FEB 1 MAR APR 1 MAY 1 JUN 1 JUL AUG SEP 1 OCT 1 NOV 1 DEC 1 Figure 12.9.— Shelf Water front position relative to the 200-m isobath along a 130-degree bearing line from Cape May, N.J.; positive is seaward. CAPE HENRY 95* - 1974 300-1 200 - g 100- 0 - ■100 - /—■-.-— '\/'" \ \ V^\^\_/ A. JAN I FEB I MAR I APR I MAY I JUN i JUL I AUG I SEP I OCT I NOV I DEC 300 -1 200 - 100 - 0 - -100 - CAPE HENRY 95* - 1975 t--u-^ / / \ JAN I FEB I MAR I APR I MAY I JUN I JUL I AUG I SEP I OCT I NOV I DEC I Figure 1 2. 1 0.— Shelf Water front position relative to the 200-m isobath along a 95-degree bearing line from Cape Henry, Va.; positive is seaward. 224 ALBEMARLE SOUND 90« - 1974 300-1 200- E 100- 0- -100- -•^■\ /■ .A. .y\^- — ./V. N._. y \ JAN I FEB I MAR I APR I MAY I JUN I JUL I AUG I SEP I OCT I NOV I DEC ALBEMARLE SOUND 90* - 1975 300 - 200 - 100 - 0 - -100 /V .^.^ ^- A^. JAN 1 FEB 1 MAR 1 APR 1 MAY 1 JUN 1 JUL AUG SEP OCT 1 NOV 1 DEC 1 Figure 12.11.— Shelf Waterfront position relative to the 200-m isobath along a 90-clegree bearing line from Albemarle Sound, N.C.; positive is seaward. 300- 200- E 100- 0- -100- CAPE LOOKOUT I35' - 1974 \/\ \ JAN I FEB I MAR I APR I MAY I JUN I JUL I AUG i SEP I OCT I NOV I DEC CAPE LOOKOUT 135* - 1975 300-1 200 - g 100 - 0 H -100 l\. y VA. — ^\./\. JAN I FEB I MAR I APR I MAY I JUN I JUL I AUG I SEP I OCT I NOV I DEC Figure 12.12.— Shelf Water front position relative to the 200-m isobath along a 135-degree bearing line from Cape Lookout, N.C.; positive is seaward. 225 300-1 200- E 100- 0- -100- r CAPE FEAR I40«- 1974 ,/"'\/ JAN I FEB I MAR I APR I MAY I JUN I JUL I AUG ' SEP I OCT ' NOV I DEC 300 200 g 100 - 0 100 CAPE FEAR I40»- 1975 ./ •^■\, \/- V JAN I FEB I MAR I APR I MAY I JUN I JUL I AUG I SEP I OCT I NOV I DEC 1 Figure 1 2. 1 3.— Shelf Water front position relative to the 200-m isobath along a 1 40-degree bearing line from Cape Fear, N.C.; positive is seaward. CAPE ROMAIN 140* - 1974 300 - 200- 100- 0- /\ /\_ /VA \ -100- JAN FEB MAR 1 APR 1 MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT 1 NOV 1 DEC 1 CAPE ROMAIN I40« - 1975 300 -1 200 - E 100 - 0 - -100 - ■\ / JAN I FEB I MAR I APR I MAY I JUN I JUL I AUG i SEP I OCT I NOV I DEC I Figure 12.14.— Shelf Water front position relative to the 200-m isobath along a 140-degree bearing line from Cape Romain, S.C; positive is seaward. 226 J FMAMJJASONOJ FMAMJJASONO I 1 I I I I I 1 I I I ' I I I I CASCO BAY I20« CASCO BAY 140' CASCO BAY I60» NANTUCKET 180° " MONTAUK PT 150" SANDY HOOK I30» CAPE MAY 130"* CAPE HENRY 95» ALBEMARLE SD. 90° CAPE LOOKOUT 135° CAPE FEAR KO" CAPE ROMAIN 140° \^ -P" <•- N. "•v- ^^ 100 Km I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I JFMAMJJASONOJ FMAMJJASONO 1974 1975 Figure 12.15.— Mean monthly position of Shelf Waterfront relative to 2-yr mean position. 227 19 74 19 75 T — I — I — \ — \ — I — \ — r CB C8 CB NT MP SH CM CH AS CL CF CR 120 140 160 ISO 150 130 130 95 90 135 140 140 NORTH SOUTH Figure 12.16.— Mean separation distance and standard deviation of Shelf Water front from 200-m isobath for 1974 and 1975 at each bearing line. AUG I SEP I OCT I NOV I DEC I 85 Figure 12.17.— Percentage of Georges Bank covered by Slope Water, 1974 and 1975. 228 Section 13 WIND-EEIVEN TBANSPORT IN 1975, ATLANTIC COAST AND GULF OF MEXICO Knowledge of the transp special significance planktonic stages of mo surface layer and ar changing environments unfavorable to their seasonal drift patterns and recruitment of man the role apparently pla al. 1942:492) of the Atlantic menhaden from Cape Hatteras to estua Carolinas (Nelson et al year classes occurred during the spawning mon with weak westward tran Jchn T. Gunn^ ort of the ocean's surface layer has for fisheries scientists because the st resource species concentrate within the e transported along with it, often into which may be either favorable or survival. The strength and direction of can strongly influence larval survival y resource species. An example of this is yed by wind-driven transport (Sverdrup et surface layer in transporting larvae of their offshore spawning sites south of rine nursery areas along the coasts of the . 1977). In the period 1955-70, strong when there was strong westward transport ths, and weak year classes were associated sport or eastward transport. Wind-driven transport dan also play an important role in determining the nearshore circulation, as described by Armstrong^ for the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. In that area the seasonal fluctuations in the direction and strength of the wind-driven transport changes the direction of nearshore flow over the continental shelf of Texas, with possible import to shrimp survival. It is expected that variations in wind-driven (Ekman) transport are a significant influence on the larval survival, recruitment, and year class strength of resource species other than Atlantic menhaden, and on the physical oceanography of areas other than the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. ^Atlantic Environmental Group, National Marine Fisheries Service, NCAA, Narragan sett , RI 02882. ^Armstrong, P. S. 1976. Historical physical oceanography seasonal cycle of temperature, salinity and circulation. MS. Atlantic Environmental Group, NMFS, Narragansett , RI 02882. 229 Section 13 Estimates of wind driven (Ekraan) transports in the upper layer of the North Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico are among the suite of parameters computed from monthly average atmospheric pressure charts by the Pacific Environmental Group. The computational method employed is described by Bakun (1973). The monthly transports and related parameters are available back to 19H6.3 WIND DRIVEN TBANSPOBT IN 1975 Monthly Ekman transport values for 1975 are presented in Table 13.1 and Figures 13.1 and 13.3 for three locations off the Atlantic coast and three locations in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Ten-year monthly mean values for the period 1964-73 are also presented for comparison (Figs. 13.2 and 13. U). Major variations of the 1975 transport values from the 10-yr mean values are summarized in the following paragraphs. A^tlantic Coast At 40N, 70W: In the first two months of 1975, the estimated Ekman transport was weaker than the 10-yr mean and had a more southerly component. By April, however, the transport peaked at a value almost four times that of the monthly mean and shifted more to the southwest. This anomaly coincided with a seaward excursion of the Shelf Water front in the New York Bight area (Section 12). The transport dropped well below the mean for the May-June period, but increased again in July to a maximum a little greater than the mean. This July increase coincided with an excursion of the Shelf Water front onto Georges Bank, an effect opposite to what might be expected from the Ekman transport. The strength of the transport coincided rather closely with the mean values for the remainder of the year, except for a lower magnitude in December. The usual transition from a southeasterly to a southwesterly direction occurred in August, approximately a month earlier than in the 10-yr mean. Because the spring transition from southwesterly to southeasterly flow occurred later than normal, the summer period of southeast flow was shorter than what would be expected from the mean values. At 35N, 75W: The magnitudes and directiors of the wind- driven transport at this location are generally correlated with ■^For further information regarding these data, contact Chief, Pacific Environmental Group, National Marine Fisheries Service, c/o Fleet Numerical Weather Central, Monterey, CA 93940. 230 those at 40N, VOW, with The earlier peak is n is. In the first two m mean and more toward adverse effect on the s spawned south of Cape have had westward zona (metric tons per secon whereas in 1975 the val 75-200 t/s-"km. By Ap developed, but this was transport for the bulk the rest of the year wa mean, although genera component in August. peaks ir magnit ct present in th onths the transp s the southeas urvival of the Hatteras. Good 1 transport va d per kilometer) ues for these ril , a small probably too la of the menhaden s fairly consi lly less in mag Section 13 ude in April and July, e mean data, but the later ort was weaker than the t, which may have had an Atlantic menhaden larvae years for larval transport lues of over 50C t/s-km for January and February, months were eastward at westward zonal component te to provide the required larvae. The transport for stent with the ten-year nitude and lacking a zonal At 30N, 8GW: The ten- year mean values of estimated transport for this position are weak (<150 t/s-km) from January to August, with their directions swinging around from northwest to east by March, and staying in the E-NE octant through August. The direction swings back around to the N-NW octant for the last four months of the year, with a peak transport of 450 t/s-km to the north-northwest in October. In 1975, the wind-driven transport for the first seven months was approximately the saire magnitude as the 10-yr mean, but consistently in the ENE-ESE octant. It then increased in magnitude and turned toward the NNW-NNE octant for the remainder of the year, similar to the 10-yr mean. The estimated transport did reach a maximum in October, like the 10-yr mean, but its magnitude was only 300 t/s-km. The transport values for September and November 1975, however, were both higher than the mean value. Gulf of Mexico At 27N, 84W: The 10-yr mean values of the Ekman transport for this position show a general decrease from 610 t/s-km in January to a low of 128 t/s-km in July. The transport then increases to a yearly high in October of 870 t/s-km^ and then decreases the rest of the year. The direction of the transport in the 10-yr mean is in the N-NE octant in all months except January, October, and November, when it is in the N-NW octant. The fluctuations of the transport in 1975 were fairly similar in magnitude to the 1C-yr mean values, but not in direction. Generally, the transport values were slightly smaller than the mean values, except in March and April, when they were close to the means. The transport maximum, 1300 t/s-km, was in November, a month later than the yearly maximum in the 10-yr mean data. Transport direction was generally mere towards the east than the 231 Section 13 mean directions during the first seven months of the year, except in April, when it was close to the 10-yr mean. The July value was the most eastward, but this occurred during a period when the transport magnitude was at a minimum. At 27N, 90W: The pattern of mean wind-driven transport at this position shows maximum values at two periods during the year, April and Octoher, The April maximum transport (700 t/s-kra) occurs just after a transition in direction from northwest to northeast. Thereafter, the transport changes back to the northwest by October, when the second peak in transport occurs (1,000 t/s-km) . The 1S75 estimated transport values were larger in the spring (1,420 t/s-km) and fall (1,320 t/s-kiii) than the 10-yr mean values, but the fall peak occurred a month later, in November, as was the case at 27N, 8UW. The directions of transport generally followed the mean values, but the shifts occurred about a month earlier than in the mean pattern and the directions for May through August were farther to the northeast. At 27N, 96W: At this position, the 10-yr mean values of wind-driven transport exhibit sharp seasonal shifts in direction and magnitude. The magnitude of 6C0 t/s-km in January increases slowly through March, and then in April nearly doubles to the annual raaxinium, 1800 t/s-kra. For the rest cf the year, the magnitude decreases until the last guarter, when it levels off at 5C0-600 t/s-km. The direction of the mean transport moves from just east of north in January and February to northeast by April, remaining there until September when it swings to a more northerly direction for the balance of the year. The wind-driven transport in 1975 followed the general pattern of fluctuations of the IC-yr mean, but the magnitude was consistently less and the direction more towards the north. The spring-summer magnitudes, however, were especially different from the 10-yr means, not reaching as high a peak in April, remaining distinctly Icwer in May and June, and diminishing to fall-winter levels some two months earlier, in July. Furthermore, the spring-summer wind directicns in 1975 (Fig. 13.5) did not come fully around to typical southeasterlies except in June. Beturn tc the easterly wind condition of fall-winter occurred about one month earlier than the mean. 232 Section 13 APELICATION OF WIND DPIVEN TRANSPORT ESTIMATES TC ANALYSIS OF CIPCUIATION ON THE TEXAS SHELF Armstrong (see footnote 2) concluded that the Shelf Water circulation of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is principally governed by wind-driven transport. Based on the methods of that study, the inference is that the wind-driven circulation during 1975 induced longshore currents over the Texas shelf 1) toward the west and south from January into March and again from irid- September through December; 2) toward the north and east, accompanied by upwelling over the outer shelf, from April through July; and 3) with transitional periods in March and August. Ccrapariscn with 10-yr means indicates that the directions of flow on the Texas shelf were typical in 1975, except that the reversal from summer to fall tcok place about a month earlier than the average. In ether words, the transition from the spring-summer flow toward the north and east to fall and winter flow toward the west and south was in August rather than September. Based on interpretations of monthly mean winds, the spring-summer flow was generally weaker than average, and upwelling over the outer shelf less pronounced, whereas the fall-winter flew was perhaps stronger than average in November and December. LITERATURE CITED BAKUN, A. 1973. Coastal upwelling indices, west coast of North America, 1946-71. U.S. Dep. Commer. , NOAA Tech. Eep. NMFS SSRE-671, 103 p. NELSON, W. R., M. C. INGHAM, and W. E. SCHAAF. 1977. Larval transport and year-class strength of Atlantic menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus. Fish. Bull., U.S. 75:23-41. SVERDRUP, H. U., M. W. JOHNSON, and R. H. FLEMING. 1942. The oceans: their physics, chemistry, and general biology. Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1087 p. 233 Table 13.1. — Monthly average Ekman transports for selecred points off the U.S. east coast and in the Giilf of Mexico, 1975> in t/s-km. Positive is eastward (zonal) and northvra,rd (meridional). Jan Fet Mar Apr May Jxxn Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1 l+O^N, 70°W Zonal -10 -ko -90 -260 00 20 230 30 00 -30 00 -30 ■ Meridional -200 -180 -220 -330 -10 -ko -220 -80 -10 -30 -li|0 -10 ^ 3^°1T. 7^^ Zonal 50 20 10 -130 20 20 150 10 10 -30 -20 -30 Meridional -200 -70 -210 -290 -00 -10 -90 -60 60 30 -20 -30 30O1T, 80°V Zonal ko 50 70 0 60 1+0 lUO 20 30 -100 -80 -50 1 Meridional 20 10 -UO -00 10 10 -10 30 260 290 270 90 27ON, 8UOW Zonal 90 100 230 130 70 60 li+0 100 70 -160 -30 -30 Meridional i+30 160 260 350 70 60 UO 330 U80 71+0 1300 650 27°1T, 90^ Zonal 00 i+0 i+20 U20 i^io 160 20 li+O -390 -U20 -260 -360 Meridional 560 270 730 1360 730 U80 80 61+0 780 1000 1300 1 880 27°N, 96^ Zonal 100 30 350 820 560 790 370 21+0 -130 00 90 -10 Meridional 370 360 710 lillO 850 7U0 i+80 620 590 570 5U0 lao 234 45* 40' 35' 30* 25° - 80 "T ll//'^\'y I — I — 1 — I — 1 — 1—1 I I I I 1,000 t/s-km - 45« - 35' MONTHLY EKMAN TRANSPORT 1975 40* 30* 25« 80° 75' 70° 65° Figure 13.1,— Monthly Ekman (wind-driven) transports for three points off the Atlantic Coast for 1975. 235 80' 45« 40* 35* 30* 25" 75 40'»N,70«W JAN DEC ® 35''N,75*'W _I 1 I I u 1,000 t/s-km JAN DEC MONTHLY EKMAN TRANSPORT 10 YEAR MEAN 1964-1973 45* 40* SS* 30* 25* 80* 75" 70* 65* Figure 13.2.— Mean monthly Ekman (wind-driven) transports for three points off the Atlantic Coast for the 10-yr period, 1964-73. 236 30* 25* 20" - aS' 90" 85* Figure 13.3.— Monthly Ekman (wind-driven) transports for three points in the northern Gulf of Mexico for 1975. 237 30* 25* 20* MONTHLY EKMAN TRANSPORT I I I I I 1 ] i I I I 1 ,000 t/s-km 20' 85* Figure 13.4.— Mean monthly Ekman (wind-driven) transports for three points in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the 10-yr period, 196 4-73. 238 3000 ® 10 YR MEAN / (1964-1973) M M D j|f|m|a|m|j|j|a|s|o|n| MONTH Figure 13.5.— Ekman transport and wind direction at 27N, 96W for 1975 and for 10-yr mean. E m m S o > H 2 O H A^ 2 ^ CO ^ 239 Section 14 SPRING AND AUTUMN BOTTOM-WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND GEORGES BANK, 1968-75^ Clarence W. Davis^ INTRODUCTION This paper summarizes variations in bottom-water temperatures in the Gulf of Maine-Georges Bank area (Fig. 14.1) during spring and autumn 1968-75. Unusually high temperatures were observed in 1973 and 1974 during several cruises in the Gulf of Maine- Georges Bank area. These observaticrs coincided with recent changes in the distribution and/or timing of spawning of certain fish and shellfish. Notable changes during this period included: extended distribution of green crabs, bluefish, and menhaden along the coast of Maine; mackerel overwintering northeast of their usual grounds; delayed inshore movement of silver hake; and delayed spawning and change in availability of the inshore stock of sea herring in the Gulf of Maine. ^ According to several authors, as cited by Colton and Stoddard (1973), the distribution of benthic organisms in continental shelf waters in temperate latitudes is controlled largely by seasonal temperature conditions. Further, Colton (196Ba) attributed a delay in the timing of maximum haddock spawning on Georges Bank, and vernal augmentation of the Gulf of Maine stock of Calanus f i nma rchic us , to decreasing temperatures. The question was raised whether there had been a significant upward trend in average temperatures or simply a couple of anomalous years since 1968. Although bottom temperatures alone represent only a partial picture of the temperature structure of the region, they are sufficient to show major changes and are iSuromarized from ICNAF Res. Doc. 76/VI/85. ^Northeast Fisheries Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NCAA, Narragansett, RI 02882. ^Anderson, E. D. 1975, The effects of a combined assessment for mackerel in ICNAF Subareas 3, 4, and 5, and Statistical Area 6. ICNAF Res. Eoc. 75/14, 14 p. Also, personal communication from V. Anthony, Northeast Fisheries Center, NMFS, Woods Hole, MA 02543. 241 Section 14 particularly relevant for the distribution of demersal species. The remainder of the temperature profile, from surface to near bottom, is not included in this study. Also salinity profiles are excluded from the study since subsurface data were not routinely obtained on these surveys. For these reasons, specific identification of subsurface water masses is not possible; however, it is known that the major source of subsurface inflow into the Gulf of Maine is relatively warm Slope Water through the Northeast Channel (Bigelow 1927; Colton 1968b), Therefore, major changes in the average bottom-water temperature in the Gulf should be preceded by changes in the volume and temperature of water entering the Gulf via the Northeast Channel. Georges Bank water is derived largely from the Gulf of Maine but is also sporadically influenced, especially on the surface, by intrusions of Slope Water along the southern boundary.'* Since the Bank is usually well mixed by tidal and wind forces throughout most of the year, subsurface temperatures there are influenced to a large degree by the deeper boundary waters. RESULTS Gulf of Maine - Spring Spring bottom-water temperatures in the Gulf of Maine show a general warming trend since 1968, reaching a peak in 1973-74, with only slight decreases (-0.1C) from the previous year in 1972 and 1975 (T?ig. 14.2). The largest increase (0.8C) from the previous year occurred in 1970 and accounted for over 50% of the total 8-yr range of 1.4C (5.2C-6.6C). The spring mean of 6.1C was about 1C colder than in 1955-56, but 1C warmer than in 1965-66 (Schopf 1967). Individual years from 1968 to 1972 corresponded with the 1962-72 long-terra mean data of Karaulovsky and SigaevS to within + or - 0.2C. The highest mean of 1974 corresponds with the highest positive sea surface temperature anomaly between 1970 and 1974 in the Gulf. 6 ^Bumpus, D. F. , 1975. Review of the physical oceanography of Georges Bank. ICNAF Res. Doc. 75/107, 32 p. ^Karaulovsky , V. P., and I. K. Sigaev, 1976, Long-term variations in heat contert of the waters on the Northwest Atlantic Shelf. ICNAF Res. Doc. 76/VI/2, 9 pp. ^Personal communication from J. L. Chamberlin, Atlantic Envi- ronmental Group, NMFS, Narragansett , RI 02882. 242 Section 14 Figure 14.3 illustrates the changes in percentage of temperature class intervals (TCI's) for the entire Gulf. The general warming trend is characterized by a rather progressive decrease in water <4C with a corresponding increase in water >8C (solid bars in histogram). Although soire years had the same or nearly the same mean temperature, the TCI's were usually of quite different magnitude. For example, during the spring cruises of 1970 and 1972, the means varied by only 0.1C but the coldest and warmest TCI's varied by factors of about 2 and 13, respectively. The 6C-8C TCI dominated in all years, while the UC-6C TCI remained the most consistent during the study period. Figure 14.4 summarizes the annual mean spring temperatures for the Gulf by subareas of one degree longitude (Fig. 14.1). Sufcareas I and IV had the lowest and highest values respectively in each of the years investigated as expected, since I has the most shoal water and nearly all of IV is deeper than 200 m. The relative shoalness of I is also reflected in the large temperature variability between years, especially the increases between 1969 and 1970 (+1.5C) and between 1973 and 1974 (+1.0C), and the decreases between 1970 and 1971 (-0.6C) and between 1971 and 1972 (-0.7C). A temperature increase was noted between years in all subareas from 1968 to 1970 and from 1972 to 1973, but no year produced a decrease in every subarea. The 8-yr mears and yearly anomalies are summarized in Table 14.1 and show that all subareas had negative values in 1968 and 1969 and positive values in 1974 and 1975, but a mixture of values in the intervening years. Comparison of the Gulf by subarea again shews how years of siirilar mean temperatures can have vastly different TCI's (Fig. 14.5). In subarea I the means were all 5C in 1970, 1974, and 1975, but the TCI's in 19*70 were about 20% each of 2C-4C and 6C-8C, and 60^ of 4C-6C, while 1974 and 1975 were both nearly 100^ of 4C-6C. Conversely, a deep, stable subarea like IV had very similar TCI percentages when the spring maans were similar, and clearly showed the decrease of coldest and increase of warmest TCI's as the warming trend progressed. ^ulf of Mail]€ - Autumn Autumn bottom-water temperatures in the entire Gulf of Maine increased steadily from 1968 to 1974 and decreased quite abruptly in 1975 (Fig. 14.5). The total 7-yr increase was 1.3C (7.3C-8.6C), while the single decrease was 0.6C. The 8-yr mean of 7.9C was 0.9C warmer than observed by Karaulovsky and Sigaev (see footnote 5) for the years 1962-72, and about 2C warmer than the seasonal mean indicated for this area by Schopf (1967) . 243 Section ^^ Temperature class intervals in the Gulf showed a consistent change annually even though the mean temperatures varied only slightly from year to year (Fig. 14.3). Sens rally, water <6C in colder years was "replaced" by >10C water, and dominance of the 6C-8C TCI shifted to the 8C-10C TCI as a result of the warming trend. Temperatures fluctuated widely between years and generally did not show a consistent pattern between subareas. However, the easternmost subarea (V) was usually the warmest, and subarea II the coldest, and in 1975 all subareas decreased (Fig. 14.6). The largest fluctuations occurred in the coastal subareas I and V which had annual differences as much as 1.5C-1,8C. Although subarea I is the smallest of the Gulf divisions, its exceptionally large negative anomaly of 1.6C (Table 14.1) accounted for most of the 1975 decline in mean bottom water temperature for the entire Gulf (Fig. 14.2). Subarea II, which comprises most of the Western Basin of the Gulf of Maine, had the lowest mean bottom-water temperature (7. 3C) , whereas subarea V, influenced by its large area of shoal water and the inflow through the Northeast Channel, had the highest mean (9.1C). The subarea TCI's are shown in Figure 14.7, and unlike the histogram for the entire Gulf, indicate that similar mean temperatures usually had similar TCI percentages. The best examples of this relationship occurred in 1969 between subareas I and V; in 1972 between IV and V; and in 1973 among I, II, and III. The relatively large amounts of 4C- 6C water in subareas II and III in 1966 and in subarea I in 1975 were chiefly responsible for the lowest annual mean and single annual decrease. The absence of this TCI in 1974 coincided with the highest mean temperatures observed for the entire Gulf of Maine but not necessarily for the individual subareas. Preliminary analysis of spring data for 1976 indicates record highs since 1968 for all subareas of the Gulf of Maine (observed mean 7.1C). A relatively large amount of 8C-10C water observed in the Gulf was probably of slope origin and entered through the Northeast Channel. Georges Bank - Spring Spring bottcm-water temperatures on Georges Bank were character- ized by a low in 1971 of 4C followed by rather large year to year increases tc a peak of 6 . 5C in 1974, and then a sharp decline of 1.1C in 1975 (Fig. 14.8). The 8-yr mean of 5.2C is 1C lower than reported by Karaulovsky and Sigaev (see footnote 5) for 1962-72, but their coverage included waters deeper than 100 m. Schopf (1967) calculated a mean bottom-water temperature of approxi- mately 4.8c for Georges Bank during this season in the periods 1955-56 and 1965-66. 244 Section 14 Georges Bank is usually dcirinated by the 4C-6C TCI in the spring which in 1969 accounted for 907c of the area within the 100-ni isobath (Fig. 14.9). The coldest (1971) and warmest (1974) years are marked by a displacement of this TCI with 2C-4C and 6C-8C water, respectively. Since the Bank waters are well mixed, these changes in TCI percentages reflect broad-scale habitat differences in 1971 and 1974 from average conditions. Unlike the Gulf of Maine, year-to-year changes in spring tempera- tures were similar m again points out the (Fig. 14.10) . Central the three subareas, and Western and eastern temperatures except in anomaly of -1.7C (Table all the subareas of Georges Bank, which homogeneity of these shoal waters Gecrges Bank was usually the coldest of reached a minimum of 3.6C in 1971. Georges Bank had very similar mean 1968 when the latter subarea had an 14.2) . Subarea TCI's for both spring and autumn are shown in Figure 14.11. It is interesting to note that the quite warm years of 1973 and 1975 were substantially influenced by water >8C in all three subareas, but that the warmest year, 1974, had none of this water. The rather low mean for the entire Bank in 1968 was mainly the result cf a 2C- 4C TCI of 75% in the eastern subarea. 5gQI9§§ EaJlJS ~ ^uturan Mean bottom- viater temperatures on Georges bank in the autumn increased from a low cf 10. 6C to a high of 13. 4C in 1973 (Fig. 14.12). The largest year-to-year variations were -1.5C (1968-69), -1.1C (1974-75), +1 . 3C (1970-71), and +1.2C (1972-'73). The 8-yr mean of 12. 1C was recorded in both 1968 and 1975; this value was about 1C warirer than that reported by Karaulovsky and Sigaev (see footnote 5) for 1962-72. The two coldest years, 1969 and 1970, are characterized by relatively large amounts of water <10C and small amounts >14C, while the two warmest years, 1973 and 1974, had no water <8C (Fig. 14.9) . Years of similar mean temperatures did not necessarily have similar TCI percentages; 1973 and 1974 were alike, but 1968 and 1975 were quite different. Figure 14.13 and Table 14.2 summarize the mean temperatures and variations for the three subareas of the Bank. Especially notable are the consistently low temperatures en eastern Georges Bank during all years of the study. The warmest part of the Bank alternated nearly every year between the western and central subareas, and each had the same 8-yr mean (12. 9C). Despite the large annual fluctuations, each subarea was in phase with the general trend depicted for the entire Bank. 245 Section 14 The influence of the eastern subarea on autumn mean temperatures for the whole of Georges Bank is evident in the TCI (distributions shown in Figure 14.11. Relatively large amounts of 6C-8C water and small amounts of 14C-16C water in the eastern subarea are prevalent in cold and warm years, respectively. The modal TCI percentages are consistently lower by one interval than those in the western and central subareas. EISCUSSION Year to year changes in spring and autumn bottom-water temperatures in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank are obviously related to the volume of unusually cold cr warm water which denotes changes in composition of these waters. Bigelow (1927) and Colton <1968b) concluded that it is the volume and composition of offshore waters entering the Gulf of Kaine via the Northeast Channel that principally determine these variations, at least in the deeper basins of the Gulf. Although salinity observations were not determined in this study, it can reasonably be assumed that Slope Water entering the Gulf through the Northeast Channel was mainly responsible for the general temperature trend observed in much of the Gulf, and ultimately effected changes in Georges Bank. Examination of the plotted isotherms (Figs. 14.14 and 14.15), especially for the spring cruises, clearly supports this assumption. Schlitz^ suspected, from the above examination, that the high spring temperatures observed in 1972-74 were either the result of a repeated inflow through the Northeast Channel each year, as indicated by the 8C isotherm (Fig. 14.14) , or that a single major pulse occurred in 1972, perhaps followed ty lesser intrusions, and this warm water persisted in the deep basins until natural decay resulted in the observed 1975 decline in mean bottom temperature. Another hypothesis is that a similar seguence was initiated in the autumn of 1971 and that the warir spring conditions were the result of "overwintering" Slope Water. Begardless of the hypothesis, it seems clear that anomalous conditions occurred commencing in autumn 1971 and spring 1972 and persisted through 1974. In order to understand the dynamics of such changes, it will be necessary to carry out continuous monitoring of temperature, salinity, and currents in the very iirportant Northeast Channel and contiguous waters. As stated by Bigelow (1927), this channel is the most striking feature of the Gulf of Maine affecting the hydrography of the region. Also, an examination of available data on the volume and temperature of adjacent Slope Waters in the past ^Personal communication from R. Schlitz, Northeast Fisheries Center, NMFS, Woods Hole, MA G2543. 246 Section 14 decade may provide a better understanding of the observed conditions in the Gulf of Maine and on Georges Bank during this period. The trend of increasi in the Gulf of Ma analyzed as an entire Bank the sutareas (Figs. 14.4, 14.9) . of Georges Bank ar indicated by the homo mean temperatures s This phenomenon was n Georges Bank was cons rest of the area. Th eastern Georges Bank three subareas, and Northeast Channel wo autumn (Colton 1968b) ng tempera ine than unit (Fig are much Thi s is to e often geneity of uch as m ot observa ist ertly t is can be cortains th e effe uld terd t tures since 1968 was much smoother on Georges Bank when each area is s. 14.2, 14.8), but on Georges more alike within a given year be expected as the entire waters well mixed by tides and winds as TCI's in years of very comparable spring 1969 and 1972 (Fig. 14.11). ble in the autumn because eastern wc or more degrees colder than the explained in part by the fact that the smallest area of shoals of the ct of the indraft through the c cool eastern Georges Bank in the With respec to note t inte rvals extremes, of suitable temperature survival of 6C-8C wate other seven other year (Fig. 14.11 real speci follow-up t linear rel will be fou the magnit biological of spawnin patterns o understandi hatching s nevertheles evident if closely sc in correlat have bette variations t to biological changes, it is perhaps more important he fluctuations in volumes of certain temperature rather than variations in temperature means or For example, the TCI's might be considered estimates habitat area for any given species providing its tolerances or preferences are known; if spawning and species "X" on Georges Bank is most successful in r, then the 1974 year class might be stronger than the year classes for which data are presented, as no had large guantities of this water in this area ). A close examination of such relationships with es in the entire water column appears warranted as a o this report. It is perhaps unlikely that a simple ationship between year class success and temperature nd for any species; however, temperature trends of ude shown in this paper undoubtedly influence certain phenomena in significant ways, e.g., changes in time g of sea herring and haddock, and distributional f mackerel and silver hake. A more complete ng of the net effects of temperature on spawning, uccess, growth, predation, etc. is required, but s other gross effects such as those stated might be available biological data for the last decade were Eutinized. Certainly there would be significant value ion analyses of time-series data, especially after we r measures of the dynamics involved in temperature in the Gulf of Maine and on Georges Bank. 247 Section 1U LITERATUBE CITED BIGEIOW, H. E. 1927. Physical oceancgraphy of the Gulf of Maine. Bull. U.S. Bur. Fish. 40:511-1027. \ COITON, J. E. , Jr. 1968a. A comparison of current and long-terir temperatures of continental shelf waters. Nova Scotia to Long Island. Int. Comm. Northw. Atl> Pish. Pes. Bull. 5:110-129. 1968b. Recent trends in subsurface temperatures in the Gulf of Maine and contiguous waters. J. Fish. Res. Bd. Can. 25:2427-2437. CCITON, J. I., Jr., and E. P. STODDARD. 1973. Bottom- water temperatures on the continental shelf. Nova Scotia to New Jersey. NOAA Tech. Rep. NMFS CIRC. 376, 55 p. SCHOFF, T. J. M. 1967. Bottom-water temperatures on the continental shelf off New England. U.S. Geol. Surv., Prof. Pap. 575-D: D 192-D197. t^ 248 Table 1 4 . 1 . --Eight-year means and yearly anomalies for subareas of the Gulf of Maine, spring and autumn, 1968-75. Subarea X 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 SPRING I 4. 2 -1 . 5 -0. 7 + 0. 8 + 0. 2 -0.5 -0. 2 + 0. 8 +0.8 II 5. 9 -1. 0 - .8 + . 6 + . 3 - . 1 + . 1 + .3 + .4 III 6. 2 -1 .1 - .5 + .5 + . 3 - . 1 + . 2 + .3 + .3 IV 7.0 -0. 7 - .5 - . 1 - .2 + .4 + . 6 + . 7 + .2 V 6. 0 -1.0 -1.0 - . 3 0 0 + . 8 + .5 + .5 AUTUMN I 8. 1 + 0. 3 + 0.2 + 1. 2 0 + 0. 3 -0.3 -0. 1 -1. 6 II 7.3 -1. 2 - .5 0 + 1. 1 + . 1 + . 6 + . 1 -0.2 III 7.5 -1. 2 -° .4 -0. 3 + 0. 1 + .2 + .2 + .8 + .5 IV 8.2 - .4 - . 9 -1.0 - .5 + .6 + .4 + 1 . 1 + .5 V 9. 1 - . 2 - . 7 -1. 3 - . 6 + .3 + .9 + 1. 7 - . 1 Table 14.2. — Mean bottom-water temperatures and anomalies by sub- areas of Georges Bank, spring and autumn, 1968-75. Subarea 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 - SPRING Western 5. 3 -0. 7 -0. 1 -0.3 -1. 1 0 + 0. 9 + 1.4 + 0.2 Central 5. 1 0 + . 1 -1.0 -1.5 + 0.1 + . 7 + 1. 4 + .4 Eastern 5.2 -1. 7 0 - .4 -1.0 0 + 1. 0 + 1 .2 + . 6 AUTUMN Western 12. 9 0 -1.8 -1.1 +1.0 + 0.4 + 0.6 + 1. 3 -0.3 Central 12. 9 -0.4 -1. 2 -0.7 +0.3 - .2 + 1 .2 + 1. 1 - . 1 Eastern 10.3 - .2 -1.6 -1.3 - .3 0 + 1.5 + 1.5 + .4 249 Figure 14.1.— Gulf of Maine-Georges Bank and sub- area boundaries used in data analysis (solid circles represent typical distribution of bathythermograph stations). y / ^ / / -^ / / .r-^'^'^^^^H^y^ t / ^^%~>-^^J^ J ^ H /J"^"^, / y • / * /S / J A Jj 1 /• 11 •/ 1" / •^ /v ^;^4> e=.r~ ^^£ Y ^# ^X # / X ^ / i-" -pS-^Sr-- ^^:^:^\j(G u-U/. OF /ma i»n/e' % / ^ ) * • > ' */^ • ^ 7 It# *_ *.-*. yL-y^^~^-^'S^ ^Jl/Wl**'-^? / ^^^-^r->A */i.^yr • •""^"^ / / V / / V / A ^ %.. Spnnq • _1 L. _l I I L_ Figure 14.2.— Spring and autumn mean bottom-water tempera- tures in the Gulf of Maine, 1968-75. Figure 14.3.— Percentages of temperature class inter- vals (TCI's) in the Gulf of Maine, spring and autumn 1968-75. '" 1975 50 25 0 50 25 0 50 25 0 50 25 0 50 25 0 50 25 0 50 25 0 50 25 1975 50 - - 1974 1974 5U ^ ■ 25 0 1973 1973 ~ 1 25 0 L 1972 1972 sn _ ■ ^ - 2b 0 ^ ! - 1971 1971 1 50 1 ■■■ 2b 50 25 - 1970 1970 ^r^rr. 1969 1 1 50 t ^ - 25 0 50 1 _ 1968 1968 L _J^ 1 - y~ 25 0 C ) 2 -: « £ 10 1 SPRING 4 i E 1 D 12 14 16 AUTUMN 250 Figure 14.4.— Mean bottom-water temperatures in the Gulf of Maine by Subareas l-V, spring 1968-75. 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1S74 1975 ®: ®°: S 75 50 ^- 25 0 S 75 50 10 25 - O S 75 * 25 O S 75 ®>F 50 U) 25 O 5 ' = J L ULlil Jli^ 111 r °C 02468 10 2468 10 2468 10 2468 10 2468 10 2468 10 2468 10 2468 10 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Figure 14.5.— Percentages of temperature class intervals (TCI's) in the Gulf of Maine by Subareas l-V, spring 1968-75. Figure 14.6.— Mean bottom-water temperatures in the Gulf of Maine by Subareas l-V, autumn 1968-75. /A \ ^^^■'-;^~~-~^'''® "^ b7°-68°W 7D°-7t°W ^fT 67"-6B<>W ^^ \ 70°-71'>W 69°.70°W -■ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 251 ID? (§: N) (V)* Figure (TCI's) 75 - 50 - 25 - r- 0 ' ' r- r 1 ^ - -i ^ — 1 1 75 - -i i-i rn Ah^i 1 n . . n , , 1 , n , , ~i , 75 - 50 - 25 - I 0 ^^^^ I]-^_ . .■ 1^.1 . 1^^ — 1 r-i 75 - 50 - 25 - 0 ' ' mm - n^.^ -I , , , ■ . , r - 75 - 50 - 25 - 1 1 1 1 1 . 1 .ji. 1 2 4 6 8 10 12 4 6 8 10 12 4 6 8 10 12 4 6 8 10 12 4 6 8 10 12 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 14.7.— Percentages of temperature class intervals in the Gulf of Maine by Subareas l-V, autumn 1968-75. 6 - 4 5 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Figure 14.8.— IVIean bottom-water temperatures on Georges Bank, spring 1968-75. Figure 14.9.— Percentages of temperature class in- tervals (TCI's) on Georges Bank, spring and autumn, 1968-75. 4 6 8 10 12 4 6 8 10 12 14 4 6 8 10 12 1973 1974 1975 - 1975 L 1974 - ■ 1973 - ■ 1972 : J" b 1971 ^ __^ ■ 1970 ^^^^^ 1969 - M~ 1968 - ^- 10 12 14 16 18 AUTUMN 252 SPRING 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Figure 14.10.— Mean bottom-water temperatures on Georges Bank by subareas, spring 1968-75. T5 so ^^ AUTUMN ..fK. \M, ... "1 . 1 I 1 1 ■ ■.,,.1 ., J n, . . —-r _ ■.j, . . . r ■ ' ...rA ■„.ft „.[[i ., , ^ 1 ■,,,r 1 ,, [Til ■„ rfi ■„Ji •,„il : Jl ',,^ 1 4ll2te 4«L2Q 48t2« 4«CI6 4tl2« 4«t2W 4ea« 4«Q« 0 Ih J5 ■ 0 75 - SO • Jl SPRING ll__ ik L 1 Jll t B.LJ-LJL. L ■-■ I I 1 J ' I ™ ' . . . JJ^^^ 19«S 1969 • 12 » 19T0 ».••«»>«. ea » «« e « «e « » ««i2 « *4"»~a « 1971 )972 197S 1974 1975 Figure 14.11.— Percentages ot temperature class intervals (TCI's) on Georges Bank by sub- areas, spring and autumn 1968-75. 253 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Figure 14.12.— Mean bottom-water lemperatures on Georges BanK, autumn 1968-75. AUTUMN 14 y ^x^// "X 13 JVESTERN / -"-. / \ V <; / "-y N 3 / ^x. .^/ 5 12 q: UJ Q. CENTRAL \ ';^ / \ LlI / /■ \ 5 II / / \ > s EASTERN / 10 - \ \ /'" 9 \ 1 r 1 1 1 1 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Figure 14.13.— Mean bottom-water temperatures on Georges Banl< by subareas, 1968-75. 254 Spring 1968 Spring 1972 -icT* ' Spring 1969 ^^^w^K^ -j;:;— ^ Spring 1973 I lb ' .^^ Spring 1974 Spring 1971 Figure 14.14.— Distribution of spring bottom-water temperatures, 1968-75. Dotted shading is<4C on Georges Bank. Gridded shading is>8C in Gulf of Maine. 255 Autumn 1970 Autumn 1975 Figure 14,15 —Distribution of autumn bottom-water temperatures, 1968-75. Dotted sliading is>14C on Georges Bank. Gridded shading is>8G in Gulf of Maine. 256 Section 15 INITIATION OF MONTHLY TEMPEBATUEE TRANSECTS ACROSS TEE NORTHERN GULF OF MAINE J. Lockwocd Chamberlin, Jchn J. Kosmark, and Steven K. Cook Monthly temperature transects across the Gulf of Maine, between Bar Harbor, ME, and Yarmouth, N.S. (Fig. 15.1), were initiated by the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) in June 15*75, as a joint effort of the Northeast Fisheries Center and the Atlantic Environmental Group. Obtaining these sections on a regular schedule and at reasonable cost has been possible because of the cooperation of the Canadian National Railways, which operates the car ferry, Bluenose, from which the observations have been made. A particular i evidence during have been warme was concluded temperature tr adequately doc throughout the Yarmouth was field observati the Bluenose ports. ncenti ve recent y r than in that th ends tha umented year alon chosen f ons could during i for o ears th earlie is app t irigh only by g stand or the be obt ts f re btaining t at the wate r years (Da arent tren t occur i observatio ard section first lin ained quick guent sched he sections has been rs of the Gulf of Maine vis ;, Section 14) It d or any oth er overall n the Gi ulf cou Id be ns at regi jlar intervals lines. ] Bar Harb or to e b ecause the necessary ly and at low cos t from uled runs between these The location cf the transect line is oceanographically favorable for temperature monitoring cf the Gulf of Maine for the following reasons: 1 . It is fairly near the principal portals through which oceanic and Shelf Waters enter the Gulf (Northeast and Northern Channels, Fig. 15.1), yet is far enough within the Gulf to reveal the effect of these waters on the temperature regime where they jcir into the general cyclonic circulation of the Gulf (Bigelow 1S27) . ■"^Atlantic Environmental Group and Northeast Fisheries Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA , Narragansett , EI 02882. 257 Section 15 2. Water in the vicinity of the transect can be expected to move more or less south westward along the western side of the Gulf off the coasts of Maine, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts. Monitoring variations in temperature along the transect should, therefore, provide some of the necessary basis for forecasting water temperatures in the western Gulf. 3. Previous oceancgraphic studies (summarized by Bumpus 1973) have shown that in the spring and summer there is a "U turn" type of surface circulation in the Bay of Fundy, with water from the Scotian Shelf and eastern Gulf of Maine entering the Bay off the coast of western Nova Scotia and leaving off the coast of northern Maine. Because the Bar Harbor-Yarmouth transect crosses the mouth of the Bay, the temperature sectiors should reveal both the inflow and outflow, and provide information on whether or not the "U turn" circulation also occurs in the subsurface waters. SOURCE OF DATA Half-hourly temperature data were obtained with expendable bathythermographs (XBT's) during the six-hour crossing of the Bluenose. Because of the depth limit of the T-10 XBT probes (200 m at 1C knots) and the speed of the vessel (19 knots) , temperatures usually were not recorded deeper than about 180 m, thus not reaching all the way to the bottom in the deepest parts of the section. At each XBT station, surface bucket temperatures were recorded and surface water samples were obtained for later determinations of salinity with a Beckman inductive salinometer calibrated with standard (Copenhagen) seawater at least once every 30 samples. The position of each station is based on radio navigation. El§£§£§:-iioil ^f Temperature Sections from the Eluenose in 1975 In preparing the temperature sections from the Bluenose (Figs. 15. 2-15. U), digitizations of the XBT traces, as well as plotting and contouring of the data, have been by hand. A preliminary version of each section, starting with August, has been mailed to interested parties at New England and Canadian fishing ports. A standard bottom profile has been used in all the sections for production purposes. This profile, based on bathymetric chart data and echo sounder traces from two transects, follows the regular path of the Bluenose. The relief has been moderately simplified, appropriate to the scale of the sections, and is 258 Section 15 ccmpletely smoothed at the extreme shoreward ends. Isolated prominences and depressions are drawn with subdued relief. Minor discrepancies have been found between the depths recorded at the XET stations and the depths of the standard bottom profile. A^^I^S^ Temperature Sections To provide a basis for comparison with the temperature sections from the Bluenose (Figs. 15.1-15.4), similar sections were prepared based on long-term average monthly temperatures. The data for these sections have been derived from manuscript charts. 2 These charts were originally compiled for two atlases of average monthly sea water temperatures, each of which includes the Gulf of Maine region (Colton and Stoddard 1972, 1973) . The charts for the first atlas include contours of average monthly temperatures by 1/4 degree quadrangles of latitude and longitude for the period 1940-59. For each month there are maps for the surface and for depths of 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 75, and 100 m. On each of these charts a transect line was drawn, corresponding to the course taken by the Eluenose. The positions of isopleth intercepts along this line were recorded for each depth and each month of the year. These intercept values were plotted on graphs (cne graph for each depth) using a time scale of one year as one axis and the length of the transect as the other axis. All intercept values were plotted along midmonth lines. The plotted values were then contoured in 1/2C intervals. By folding the plots so that December was brought adjacent to January, the contouring was completed as a continuous loop. Incoherence in modifications the data in these diagrams led to numerous of the contouring on the manuscript charts and concommitant changes in the iscpleth positions plotted on the diagrams. Because some incoherencies persisted in the diagrams, subjective liberties were taken in the final contouring to eliminate small irregularities. To produce a long-term average vertical temperature section for any day when a Bluenose section was made, isopleth positions along the transect for that day were read from each contoured diagram and plotted in the standard temperature section format. Additioral long-term average monthly temperature values, espe- cially for depths greater than 100 m, were derived from the manu- script maps for Colton and Stoddard (1973) , a bottom temperature atlas. The average monthly values on these maps are by 1/4 ^Personal communication from J. B. Colton, Jr. eries Center, NMFS, Narr agansett , PI 02882. Northeast Fish- 259 Section 15 degree quadrangles of latitude and longitude, further subdivided into 20-m depth bands for depths less than 100 m, and 50- m bands for depths of 100-250 m . All such values as were found on the maps in the immediate vicinity of the transect line were plotted in the standard section format. Contouring of the average vertical temperature sections themselves required considerable subjectivity to deal with data incoherencies, especially between data derived from the two different atlas compilations. Part of the reason for these incoherencies is the difference in the years cf data that were averaged for the two atlases: 1940-59 for the first and 1940-66 for the second. A warming trend during this century, found in surface temperature records from shore stations in the Gulf of Maine (Stearns 1965; Chamberlin and Kosmark 1976) could contri- bute to discrepancies between averages based on data from these two sets of years. Undoubtedly, however, the main cause of the incoherencie s in the data used in the average sections is the paucity of historical data available for the vicinity of the Blue_ncse sections. In the bottom temperature atlas (Cclton and Stoddard 1973), based on 27 years of data, the majority cf the averages for any month are based en data from only one year. Lack of coherence cf data within any section, as well as between sections for adjacent months, is, therefore, to be expected. Nevertheless, it should be mentioned that Colton and Stoddard, in each of their atlases, reduced much of the data bias by using "corrected values" of monthly mean temperatures. These "corrected values" were read from smoothed seasonal temperature curves drawn on the data, or determined from 3-mo moving averages. We conclude that the average sections are a basis for only very general comparison with the Bluencse sections for 1975, Bcttom Temperature Diagrams The average bottom temperature diagrams and those for 1975 (Figs. 15.5, 15.6) were prepared in the same way. Smoothed bottom profiles, which eliminate depth inversions, were superimposed on each section, from the shore to deep water, at both the Bar Harbor and Yarmouth ends. Each of these smoothed profiles stops short of the high ridges in the center of the sections. The values of the isotherms were then plotted against 1) their depths of intersect with the smoothed bottom profiles and 2) time of year, and then contoured in 1C intervals. 260 TEMPEFATUEE TRENDS IN 1975 Until monthly temperature sections from Bar Harbor to Yarmouth have been obtained for at least two years, detailed analysis of temperature trends will be premature. For the present, scire of the principal trends during the seven months cf record in 1975 (June-December) can be briefly summarized: 1. During the summer, three principal processes have influenced the section: appear to a. Local solar heating produced a we surface layer in the center of the se coast of Maine, as well as progre depths of about 100 m off the coasts Nova Scotia. The lack of development layer off Nova Scotia was accompa warming at depth than off Maine. resulted from stronger vertical currents in the former area. Weak warm surface layer about 25-40 nm ( Harbor was also, presumably, the resu currents. The highest surface tem Maine coast to the center of the sec August, but they occurred in Septembe 11-developed warm ction and near the ssive warming to of both Maine and of a warm surface nied by more rapid Presumably this mixing by tidal development of a a5-75 km) from Bar It of strong tidal peratures from the tion occurred in r off Nova Scotia. b. There we middepth off analogous to water on th Ketchum and "winter" wa circulation described by may represent Scotia and cores shifted July, 2) c August, and this time t 2C off the Ma coast. The warmer than o but became ab re cores both coa the summer e Middle At Corwin (1 ter. Alte parallels Bumpus and flow into outflow of : 1) to loser to 3) to the w he minimum ine coast cold core ff Maine in out 1C warm of relatively cold water at sts. These cold cores may be occurrence of cold core bottom lantic continental shelf, which 946) described as persistent rnatively, if the mid depth the surface circulation, as Lauzier (1965), the cold cores the Bay of Fundy off Nova f the Maine coast. These cold greater depths from June to the center of the section in estward in September. During temperature in these cores rose and 3C off the Nova Scotia off Nova Scotia was about 1C June, remained colder in July, er during August and September. c. Temperature inversions near bottom in the deepest parts of the section suggest inflow of modified Slope Water during some months. 261 Section 15 2. During the autumn the principal processes influencing the section were : a. Surface cooling was accompanied by increased vertical mixing as the water column lest stability. At depths around 100 m, off both coasts, the vertical mixing produced the maximum temperatures of the year (10C off Maine and 9.5C off Nova Scotia). The middepth cores of cold water disappeared in October, and by mid-December, the water column was completely mixed near Yarmouth and nearly so near Bar Harbor. b. Warm vater with a maximum temperature above 9C flowed in along the bottom in the deep channel 60 nm (110 km) off Yarmouth in December. Comparison of the temperatures in 1975 with the long-term averages from June to December reveals that: 1. The surface temperatures are quite similar with maximum differences of no more than about 1C. 2. The cold cores in the summer sections for 1975 are not in evidence in the average sections. 3. The subsurface temperatures during the summer months are about 1C warmer than the averages, with the exception cf the cold cores. 4. The subsurface temperature differences during the autumn are somewhat greater (1C-2C) than in the summer. 5. The temperature inversion in the December 1975 section is absent in the December average section. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS John B. Colton, Jr. and Seed S. Armstrong, National Marine Fish- eries Service, provided helpful advice and criticism. 262 IITEEATUBE CITED Section 15 BIGELOW, H. B. 1927. Physical oceanography of the Gulf of Maine. Fish. 40:511-1027. Bull. Bur. BUMPUS, D. F. 1973. A description cf the circulation shelf off the east coast of the Oceanogr. 6:111-157. on the continental United States. Prog. EUMEUS, D. F., and L. M. LAUZIER. 1965. Surface circulation on the continental shelf eastern North America between Newfoundland and Florida. Gecgr. Soc., Ser. Atlas Mar. Environ. Folio 7. off Am . CHAMBEEIIN, J. I., and J. J. KOSMAEK. 1976. Sea surface temperature anomalies at shore stations in the Gulf of Maine during 1970-74. In Goulet, J. R., Jr. (compiler) , The environment of the United States living marine resources - 1974, p. 15-1--15-2. U.S. Dep. Ccmmer. , Natl. Ccean. Atmos. Adirin. , Natl. Mar. Fish. Serv., MARMAP (Mar. Resour. Monit . Assess. Predic. Prog.) Contrib. 104. CCLTON, J. E. , Jr. and R. R. STCEDARD. 1972. Average monthly seawater temperatures Nova Scotia to Long Island. Am. Geogr. Soc. , Ser. Atlas Mar. Environ. Folio 21. 1973. Bottom- water temperatures on the continental shelf. Nova Scotia to New Jersey. U.S. Dep. Ccmmer., NOAA Tech. Rep. NMFS CIRC- 37 6, 55 p. KETCHUM, B. H., and N. CORWIN. 1964. The persistence of "winter" water shelf south of Long Island, N.Y. 467-475. ' on the Limnol. continental Oceanog. 9: STEARNS, F. 1965. Sea-surface teirperature anomaly study cf records Atlantic Coast stations. J. Geophys. Res. 70:283-296. from 263 DEPTH - FATHOMS 3 (5 Q. E S CO O) c o c CO Sa3i3W - Hid3a 3 o 3 264 DEPTH - FATHOMS 1 1 1_. ^ \ ( ^ \ / s^ \ p> \ 1 /\^ 1 / /*? 1 / / ' 1 ' Jj / v_ * » \' " '* \i » ' 1 \**s^,,^__ ' \ ' 1 \ ^"^ ^ \\ > ' i f c^^~^ 1 Sa3i3W - Hid3a 3 to o. E O) (0 > CO c o in o> DEPTH - FATHOMS ^ w o c lO jjjf ) ) 1 r- 1 1 O O o o CO C ^" O) cr LU CO (0 c ^ o LU o Q) Sy3i3W - Hid3a Q. E B > DEPTH - FATHOMS « o c (D 3 Q E o 3 a. E 3 Sy3i3W Hid3a 267 MONTH / \ — 100 Figure 15.5.— Average (top) and 1975 (bottom) temperature along bottom from Bar Harbor, Maine, to a depth of 200 m. 268 ■100 Figure 15.6.— Average (top) and 1975 (bottom) temperature along bottom from Yarmouth, N.S., to a depth of 200 m. 269 Section 16 TEMFEBATUEE STPUCTUBE ON THE CONTINENTAL SHELF ANE SLOPE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING 1975 J. Lockwood Chainberlin^ INTRODUCTION An a slop (197 (Cha seve larg erti from anal seve naly e s 5) i inber n di ely rely f i ysis ral sis of bo outh of n a manne lin 1976 fferent v frcm ve from U.S shery re has agai scientist ttom New r si ) . esse ssel . ve sear n de s wh tempe Engla milar The t Is. W s of ssels , Ch VGS pended o made ratu nd h to t empe here pri V the sels on the res on t as been hat used rature d as the d ate ocea ma jorit , three the gene data av he continental prepared for a in the analysi ata are from 18 ata used for nographic insti y of the data f of which are fo rous cooperati ailable. shelf and second year s for 1974 cruises of 1974 were tutions ; and or 1975 is reign . The on of the PREPARATION OE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE SECTIONS The locations of the vertical temperature sections are plotted in Figure 16.1. A contoured diagram was drawn at uniform distance and depth scales for each section, with the exception cf section 12, for which only bottom temperature values were available. The first section is based on reversing thermometer data, sections 5 and 7 on data supplied from mechanical bathythermographs, and the remainder on expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data plotted directly frcm the traces. ^Atlantic Environmental Group, National vice, NCAA, Narragansett, RI 02882. Marine Fisheries Ser- 271 Section 16 CONSTFUCTION OF BOTTOM TEMPEEATUPE DIAGRAF-FOF 1975 A contoured diagram of bottom temperatures (Eig. 16.2) was prepared in three steps, similar to the method used in Chairterlin (1976) : 1. The values of the isotherms on vertical temperature sections and the depths where these intersect the bottom were tabulated. In parts of sections where localized ridges and depressions in the bottom profile produced inversions in the bottom temperatures, a smooth profile was drawn through the irregularities and the temperatures recorded at the depths of isotherm intersects with the smoothed profile. 2. The tabuled values were plotted at the depths of the bottom and at the tiires cf year when the observations were made. Bottom temperature values from section 12, which were the only data available, were plotted in the same way. To avoid excessive crowding of the contours in two cases where sections were made within a few days of one another, the data were combined before plotting (section 3 with section ^, and the offshore portion of section 5 with section 6) by averaging the bottom depths of each temperature value. As can be seen in Appendix 16.1, the sections for which data were combined are similar, except that in sections 3 and ^ the depth ranges of 12C bottom temperatures are distinct. 3. The plotted values were contoured at 1C intervals. The process of the contouring itself led to minor re-interpretations of some vertical sections and the concomitant changes in the depths at which bottom temperature values were plotted, as well as the addition of a few values. Although the diagram is designed to show only the gross pattern of bottom temperature change in the region south of New England (exclusive of the Nantucket Shoals area), it has, because of the manner of its construction, a characteristic that could be misleading unless explained. The temperature sections used for the diagram all run in a more or less north-south direction across the shelf and slope, but are from various longitudes between 70W13' and 71W46', a width of about 100 km (Eig. 16.1). In the diagram, however, they are treated essentially as though all were from a single line or narrow band. An adverse result of this treatment is possible ambiguity in the timing of the "temperature events" as displayed, because the apparent timing, although largely a product of the actual timing of temperature changes, is partly a product of the different locations of the successive sections. Because the shelf and slope region south of New England extends generally east-west and the main direction of 272 Section 16 the circulation is westward (Bumpus 1973), the diagram has been drawn on the assumption that the temperature regime in the region covered is reasonably hoircgeneous. This assumption is also supported by the previous studies of this region, such as those of Bigelcw (1933), Walford and Wicklund (1968), and Coltor and Stoddard (1 973) . The bottom temperature diagram for 197U (Fig. 16.3) was prepared by the same method as used for 1975, except that the vertical temperature sections on which it is based were not all drawn to the same scale, several of them having been provided by ccoperating oceanographers (see Chamberlin 1976). CCNSTBUCTION OF A lONG-TEEM MONTHLY MEAN BOTTOM TEMFEFATURE EIAGPAM - 1940-66 The long-term monthly mean bottom temperature diagram (Fig. 16. U) is based on values computed by Colton and Stoddard^ for preparation of an atlas of bottom temperatures on the continental shelf from Nova Scotia to New Jersey (Colton and Stoddard 1S73) . These mean values were computed for the period 1940-66 from data extracted from the bathythermograph file of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. The particular mean values used in preparing Figure 16. U are those for the 1/4 degree squares between 70W30' and 71 WOO'. OCCUEEENCE OF WARM CORE GULF STREAM EDDIES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND Because of Stream ed temperature features i duration li for 1975 anticyclcni region sou labeled ACE Bisagni. and are lab th e possib dies ("r s (Chamber n the SI ne £ at the (F ig. 16.2 c eddies ( th of Ne 5 ,6,8, Four eddi el ed ACE 1 le influence of anticyclon ings") on the shelf lin 1976) , the times of oc ope Water south of New En bottom of the bottom tem ) and 1974 (Fig. 16,3) . ACE) passed westward throu w England. 3 In Figure 16. and 10, the numbers app es also passed south of Ne , 2, 3, and 5 in Figure 16 ic warm core and slope currence of gland are sh perature di During 1975 gh the Slope 2 these eddi lied to th w England in .3. Gulf bottom these own as agrams , four Water es are em by 1974, ^Personal communication frcra J. B. Colton, Jr., Northeast Fish- eries Center, NMFS, Narr agansett , RI 02882. 3Bisagri, J. J., 1976. Passage of anticyclonic Gulf Stream eddies through Eeepwater Dumpsite 106 during 1974 and 1975. NOAA Dumpsite Evaluation Report, 76-1, 39 p. 273 Section 16 The eddy duration lines in Figures 16.2 and 16.3 are derived from the weekly Experimental Ocean Frontal Analysis distributed ty the U.S. Naval Oceanographic Office. Because the eddies move more or less westward into the Southern New England area, but pass out of the region in a more southwestwar d direction, the following criteria were used to develop the duration lines. The beginning of each line is on the approximate day when the western surface boundary of the eddy reached 70W15' and the end of each line is when the entire eddy at the surface had passed south of 30N30'. The 197"^ ACE'S 5, 6, and 10 each extended about the same distance northward while in southern New England waters, but ACE 6 was by far the largest (Cheney 1975). ACE 8, on the other hand, was only moderate in size and passed too far to the south to have had effects on the shelf and slope bottom temperatures comparable to those of the other eddies. None of the 1975 eddies, however, appears to have come in as close contact with the continental slope, or remained in southern New England waters nearly as long, as ACE 2 in 1^74 (Fig. 16.3; Chamberlin 1976), whereas none of the four eddies that passed south of New England during 1974 was of such great size as ACE 6 in 1975. HIGHLIGHTS CF THE TEMPERATURE SECTIONS The following sections are illustrated in Appendix 16.1. Section 1. USCGC Evergreen SAR 75-1, 22 January. The margin of Eddy 5 is apparent at the offshore XBT station. Slope Water invading the outer shelf contains an isolated body of 14c water, probably derived from this eddy. Mixed Shelf Water occupying the inshore end of the section has cooled below 5C where the bottom depth is less than about 40 m. Section 2, NCAA RV Albaiioss IV 75-2, 27 February, The Slope Water invading the outer shelf contains an isolated cere of 15C-17C water which was presumably injected from Eddy 5 when it passed through the area of the section during the first three weeks of February, Bottom water with a temperature of 17C on the outer shelf is warmer than seen in any previous section in this region. This anomaly, which is evident in only one XBT, may therefore be the product of a faulty XBT probe. Isothermal shelf water colder than 5C has extended offshore to about the 65 m isobath, but contains an isolated body of 5C water that presumably originated from a Slope Water incursion. Section 3. NCAA RV Albatross IV 75-3-1, 4-6 March, Slope Water is invading the outer continental shelf in a similar pattern to that of section 2, but contains a more usual maximum temperature of 12C, Nearly isolated 6C water, presumably 274 Section 16 derived from the Slope Water incursion, occupies the bottom toward the shoreward end of the section where a major part of the surrounding shelf has warmed to above 5C. Section U. WHOI EV Kngrr 48, 9 March. Slope Water with a maximum temperature of 12C is contacting bottom on the outer shelf and upper slope over a depth range of about 70 m. Toward the shoreward end of the section, a "bubble" of 6C water, presumably derived from a Slope Water intrusion. lies near the bottom, surrounded by isothermal 5C shelf water. Section 5. Polish RV Wieczno 7 5-1, 10-11, 16, 19 March. This section, constructed from mechanical bathythe rmograms obtained during a 10-day period, resembles the previous one made 2-10 days earlier; although the maximum bottom temperature produced by contact of warm Slope Water is apparently 11C rather than 12C, the Slope Water front is farther offshore, and the Shelf Water shoreward of the 70-m isobath is about 1C colder. having reached the annual minimum. Section 6. NCAA EV Albatross IV 75-3-II, 22 and 26 March. The warmest Slope Water contacting the bottom on the outer shelf remains, as in the previous section, at the observed annual minimum of 11C. This 11C water, however, extends farther onto the shelf at the bottom, as an isolated or nearly isolated injection. The isothermal Shelf Water occupying the shoreward half of the section is essentially unchanged. Section i, Polish RV Wieczno 75-2, 20-21 April. This short section which occupies only the outer shelf is based on mechanical bathythermograph data. Although 12C Slope Water is again contacting the bottom on the outer shelf, the Slope Water front is farther offshore than in the previous sections, and the 5C Shelf Water apparently contacts the bottom to a depth of over 100 m. Section 8. NCAA EV Albatross IV 75-5, 2 May. In this short section confined to shelf depths,. spring stratification appears and the bottom water is 1C-4C warmer than in the previous section. Section 9. University of Rhode Island RV Trident 168, 10 June. Only the shoreward end of a much longer XBT section is presented here. "One of the most pronounced warm rings ever observed" appears in the full section (Cheney 1975), whereas only its northern margin is seen in the portion presented here. The isolated body of 13C water which contacts the bottom in depths of about 115-mO ra is likely derived from this eddy. On the shelf stratification is pronounced and the cold core bottom water, with minimum temperatures below 6 . 5C , occupies most of the water column but is strangely divided into two parts by 8C water. 275 Section 16 Section 10. July. In this stratif icat cold core b and its r strong inva invasion m unusually p south (Fig follcwing o the cold CO temperature core was during July University of Phode Island BV Trident Cruise 169, 11 short secti ion remains cttom water, ise in temper sion of Slope ay have bee rominent warm . 16.2) . Whe ne , section 1 re bottom wat about 1C low temporarily on, confined to the shelf depths, strong, but the shallow position of the its diminution in cross sectional area, ature (compare with section 7) indicate a Water onto the shelf. This apparent n associated with the presence of an core eddy in the Slope Water area to the n this section is further compared to the 1, in which the cross sectional area of er is three times greater and the minimum er, it may be concluded that the cold divided into eastern and western segments Section 11. NOAA FV Albatross IV 5-8, August 7, The maximum temperature of Slope Water contacting the bottom is below 12c, and cross frontal exchange of Slope and Shelf Waters is apparent at middepths. The incursion of Slope Water as well as the shoaling and partial interruption cf the cold core bottom water that are apparent in the previous section have abated in the present section. Stratification of the Shelf Water is at maximum development. Section 12. Soviet RV Belog;orsk 75-1, 23 August. No diagram of this section has been prepared because only bottom temperature values have been obtained. These few values which have been used in the bottom temperature diagram (Fig. 16.2) indicate offshore displacement and warming of the cold core bottom water relative to the previous section. Section 13. Soviet RV Belc^crsk 75-2, September 25-26. The maximum temperature of slope water contacting the bottom is apparently warmer than 12C. The surface layer on the shelf is 5C-6C cooler than in early August (section 11). In contrast, the minimum temperature of the cold core bottom water has warmed to above 10C, resulting in a weak temperature front with the Slope Water (Wright 1976) . The main body of the cold core water is off the bottom. Section 14. NOAA RV Alba:tIoss IV 75-12, 7-8 October. The maximum temperature Slope Water contacting the bottom is warmer than 12C. Cross frontal exchange of Shelf and Slope Waters is apparent in the 60-100 ra depth range. Temperatures at the surface over the shelf and in the cold core bottom water are little changed from the end of September (section 13), although an advance in vertical mixing is shown by the 1C rise in bottom temperatures at the inshore end of the section. 276 Section 16 Section 15. Soviet RV Belogorsk 75-3, 29-30 October. Slope Water warmer than 12C contacts bottom on the outer shelf. A final remnant of the cold core water, with its minimum temperature elevated to nearly 12C, contacts the bottom in the vicinity of 80-m depth. Nearly complete vertical mixing on the shelf has produced maximum annual bottom temperatures: above 13C shoreward of the 60-m isobath and above 1 UC shoreward of the 40 m isobath . Sect Nove SI and long warm Gulf end dept Wate occu no sect the Sect ber . A of expl midd a ESQ maxi 17C esse pre v Federal Republic of Germany RV Antcn Dohrn 75-1, 15 ion 16 . mber . ope Water warmer than 12C c the remnant of cold core w er evident. Penetration of Slope Water (>mc) iray be Stream warm core eddy (ACE of the section. The 1 hs of 60-70 m appears to be r penetration or a remn pied the whole water column and 65 m (section 15). ion, the isothermal Shelf W previous section when it wa ontacts bottom on the outer shelf, ater in the previous section is no the Shelf Water at middepth by associated with the presence of a 10, in Fig. 16.2) off the seaward 4C water contacting the bottom at either a product of the Slope ant of the 14C Shelf Water that in late October in depths between In the shoreward portion of the ater is about 1C colder than in s at the annual maximum. ion 17. University cf Rhode Island RV Trident 175, 10 Decem- Gulf Stream warm core eddy (ACE 10, Fig. 16.2), passing south New England when this section was made, provides a reasonable anation for the isolated body of 16C water that lies at epth over the outer shelf. The 15C bottom temperatures ciated with this warm intrusion on the outer shelf were the mum temperatures during the year, except for the questionable in section 2. At the shoreward end of the section, the ntially isothermal Shelf Water is 2C colder than in the ious section (Section 16) , made almost a month earlier. Section 18. NCAA RV Albatross IV 74-14, 16-17 December. The northern edge of a Gulf Stream warm core eddy (ACE 10, Fig. 16.2) appears in this section, and intrusion of water from this eddy onto the shelf is further advanced than in the previous section made a week earlier. (These two sections cross each ether at a bottom depth of about 72 m) . Toward the shoreward end of the section, the shelf water temperatures are about 1C colder than in the previous section. 277 Section 16 BOTTCr^ TEWPEBATURES IN 1975 Warmer than Lon^-Term Averages but Cooler than 1974 Ccmfariscn of Figures 16.3, 16.4, and 16.5 reveals that bottom temperatures on the continental shelf and upper slope south of New England in 1975 were, as in 1974, 1C-3C warmer than the averages for 1940-66, and yet tended to be cooler than in 1974. On the outer shelf, so far as the data show, warm Slope Water contacted the bottom continuously over varying depth ranges, maintaining maximum temperatures above 11C, and for most of the year, above 12C. In some earlier years, as shown, for example, in 1965 and 1966 by Ccltcn et al. (1968) and Colton (1968), westward penetration of Labrador Coastal Water along the southern edge of Georges Bank and outer shelf off southern New England completely displaced the warm Slope Water from the bottom and depressed the maximum bottom temperature, at depths greater than 100 m, to as low as 4C. No sign of this cold water off southern New England appears in the data for 19*74 or 1975. Nevertheless, the bottom temperatures in 1975 were moderately cooler than in 1974. In the zone of warm Slope Water contact on the outer shelf, the cooler conditions are shown by the lesser depth range of water warmer than 12C. Furthermore, the maximum temperature in this zone fell below 12C in March and August 1975, whereas during all of 1974 the temperature seems to have remained above 12C. The March 1975 temperature depression, however, would appear to have been a normal phenomenon, March being the time when temperatures en the cuter shelf generally reach their annual minimum (Fig. 16.4). The anomalous event was, in fact, the absence of a temperature depression in March 1974 when a Gulf Stream warm core eddy was in prolonged proximity to the continental slope south of New England (Chamberlin 1976). An anomalously warm body of water (>16C) (Figure 16.2), at 100 m in February, can only be explained as an injection of warm eddy water (ACE 5) or as erroneous XBT data (see discussion of section 2 in the previous part of this report) . In the cold core bottom water on the shoreward side of the Slope Water zone, the minimum temperature in 1975 was about 1C colder than in 1974 during each month from March, when the cold core formed, until late October, when it was dissipated by vertical irixing. 278 Section 16 Inshore-Cff shore Fluctuations of the Cold Core Water Fluctuation in the depth of the cold core water at the bottom over a range of about 60 m is apparent in the bottom temperature diagrams for both 1974, 1975 (Figs. 16.2 and 16.3). These fluc- tuations, which, of course, represent inshore-offshore excursions of the cold cere, are associated with, and perhaps partly driven by, near bottom intrusions and withdrawals of Slope Water en the outer shelf. An apparent breaking of the cold core by a strong Slope Water intrusion in July 1975 can be seen in Figure 16.2 where the minimum temperature of the core rises above and then falls below 8C. Synoptic water temperature surveys of the shelf off southern New England and the Middle Atlantic States have characteristically shown the cold core water to be a continuous band from south of Cape Cod to the offing of Chesapeake Bay (see fig. 87 in Whitcomb 1970). The rise and fall of temperatures in the cold core during July 1975 south of New England can, therefore, be interpreted as a temporary division of the core into eastern and western segments which, presumably, rejoined as the Slope Water intrusion abated. It is also reasonable to infer from the interruption and "recovery" of the cold core that the associated Slope Water intrusion was localized. Eoiccurt an southern p southerly w layer, requ Slope Water effect off frciTi Atlant water at accumulatio onshore win well as oth subsurface mechanism n presented may occur i offshore su d Hacker (1976), from studies art of the Middle Atlantic inds "can drive offshore motion iring subsurface return flow . ." Westerly winds wou southern New England. Chase (1 ic Coast lightships, demonstrat some stations could be driven n of warm surface layer wate d. Beardsley and Flagg (1976) er possible oceanographic mecha flow of Slope Water onto th ot considered by them, but here, is that subsurface insh n the wake of warm core eddies rface entrainraent of Shelf Wate on the shelf in the Bight, described how in the upper Ekman of high salinity Id create the analagous 959) , using serial data ed that the cold core offshore by the inshore r, during periods of reviewed wind stress as nisms that may force e shelf. An additional consistent with data ore flew of Slope Water as a compensation for r by these eddies. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS For supplying the data for the temperature sections, we thank: Marianna Pastuschak, Morski Instytut, Pybacki, Poland, for the sections from the Wieczng; I. V. Worthington, Woods Hole Oceano- graphic Institution, for the section from the Kngrr; Charles W. Morgan, U.S. Coast Guard Oceanographic Unit, for the section from the Evergreen; S. P. Nickerson, Henry Jensen, and Eonald Schlit-z, Northeast Fisheries Center, NMFS, for the eleven 279 Section 16 sections from the Anton Dchrn, Belogorsk, and Albatross IV; and S, K. Cook, Atlantic Env ircnraen tal Group, NMFS, for the three sections from the Trident. Henry Jensen designed a southern New England XBT section, with closely spaced XBT's, for some of the Albatross IV cruises. In the Atlantic Environmental Group, J. J. Kcsmark and E. W. Crist helped prepare the figures, and ■R. S. Armstrong gave valuable advice. LITERATUPE CITED BEARDSLEY, E. C, and C. N. ELAGG. 1976. The water structure, mean currents, and shelf-water/ slope-water front on the New England continental shelf. Mem. Sec. R. Sci. Liege (ser. 6) 10:209-225. BIGEIOW, H. B. 1933. Studies on waters on the continental shelf. Cape Cod to Chesapeake Bay. I. The cycle of temperature. Mass. Inst. Technol. and Woods Hole Oceanogr. Inst. Pap. Phys. Oceanogr. Meteorol. 2(4) , 135 p. BOICGUBT, W. C, and P. W. HACKER. 1976. Circulation on the Atlantic continental shelf United States, Cape May to Cape Hatteras. Mem. Soc. Liege (ser. 6) 10:187-200. of the Sci. BUMPDS, D. F. 1973. A description cf the circulation on the continental shelf cf the east coast of the United States. Prog. Oceanogr. 6:111-157. CHAMBEELIN, J. L. 1976. Bottom temperatures on the continental shelf and slope south of New England during 197U. In Goulet, J. E., Jr. (compiler) , The environment of the United States living marine resources - 1974, p. 18-1--18-7. U.S. De p . Commer. , Natl. Ccean. Atmos. Admin., Natl. Mar. Fish. Serv., MAEMAP (Mar. Eesour. Monit. Assess. Predic. Prog.) Contrib. 104. CHASE, J. 1959. Wind-induced changes in the water column along the east coast of the United States. J. Geophys. Res. 64:1013-1022. CHENEY, E. 1975. A comparison of various Gulf Gulfstream 1:6-7. Stream ring structures. 280 Section 16 CCLTON^ J. E. 1968. Recent trends in subsurface temperatures in the Gulf of Maine and contiguous waters. J. Fish. Pes. Bd . Can. 25: 2427-2^437. COLTON, J. E. , R. R. MAR5K, S. NICKERSON, and R. R. STODDARD. 1S68. Physical, chemical, and biological observations en the continental shelf. Nova Scotia to Long Island, 1964-66. U.S. Fish Wildl. Serv., Data Rep. 23, 195 p. COLTON, J. E., Jr., and R. R. STODDARD. 1973. Bottom-water temperatures on the continental shelf. Nova Scotia to New Jersey. U.S. Dep. Commer., NOAA Tech. Rep. NMFS CIRC-376 , 55 p. WALFCRD, L. A., and R. I. WICKLUND. 1968. Monthly sea temperature structure from the Florida Keys to Cape Cod. Am. Geogr. Soc. , Ser. Atlas Mar. Environ. Folio 15, 2 p, WHITCOME, V. 1. 1970. Oceanography of the Mid-Atlantic Eight in support of ICNAF, September-December 1967. U.S. Coast Guard Oceanogr. Rep. CG 373-35, 157 p. WRIGHT, W. R. 1976. The limits of shelf water south of Cape 1972. J. Mar. Res. 34:1-14. Cod, 1941 to 281 7I°30 7roo' 70»30' 4I°30 - 4roo' 40*'30' AO^OO' - 39-30 - 70"00' -- 4r30 - 4roo' - 40''30' 40''00 - 39»30' 7r30° 7roo 70"'30' 70»00 Figure 16.1.— Locations of vertical temperature sections included in this report. Sections numbered chronologically. See Appendix 16.1 for identification of sections. 282 MONTH SECTION NO 0 -1 o CD 100 — UJ h- UJ I X Q. 200 UJ o o I- 300 - 400 M 34 5 6 M 10 I A II 12 0 I 14 15 N 16 D 1718 ACE 5 AC E 6 ACE 8 ACE 10 Figure 16.2.— Bottom temperatures on the continental shelf and slope south of New England during 1975. Temperature sections numbered along the top margin (see Appendix 16.1). Dots mark the depth limits of bottom data from each section. Horizontal lines at the bottom of the diagram indicate the times of Gulf Stream anticyclonic eddy (ACE) passages south of New England and are numbered after Bisagni (see text footnote 3). 283 MONTH SECTION NO 0 —I C/) a: UJ H UJ bJ O GQ 2 3 J L 4 5 ,1 L A 9 10 19 20 I 21 ACE I ACE 3 Figure 16.3.— Bottom temperature on the continental shelf and slope south of New England during 1974. The figure is modified from that in Chamberlin (1976). See caption to Figure 16.2. 284 MONTH €0 o: UJ UJ I 100 - Q. UJ O O I- O CD 200 - Figure 16.4.— Mean monthly bottom temperatures on the continental shelf and slope south of New England for the years 1940-66. Dots marl< the depth limits of the data. The figure is modified from that in Chamberlin (1976). 285 APPENDIX 16.1 VERTICAL TEMPERATUFE SECTIONS IN THE CONTINENTAL SKELF REGION SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING 1975 Solid line isotherms are at 1C intervals. The dashed line isotherms, which appear occasionally, are at 0.5C intervals. Hatched areas represent isothermal water. See Figure 16.1 for locations of sections. Section 1. USCGC Ev^r^reen Search and Rescue Cruise 75-1, 22 January. Section 2. NOAA RV Altatrcss IV Cruise 75-2, 27 February. Section 3. NOAA RV Albatrcss IV Cruise 75-3-1, 4-6 March. Section 4. Woods Hole Oceancgraphic Institution RV Knorr Cruise 48, 9 March. Section 5. Polish RV Wieczno Cruise 75-1, 10-11, 16, and 19 r^arch. Section 6. NOAA RV Albatross IV Cruise 75-3-II, 22 and 26 M a re h . Section 7. Polish RV Wieczno Cruise 75-2, 20-21 April. Section 8. NOAA RV Albatross IV Cruise 75-5, 2 May. Section 9. University of Rhode Island RV Trident Cruise 168, 10 June. Section 10. University cf Rhode Island RV Trident Cruise 169, 11 July. Section 11. NOAA RV Albatross IV Cruise 75-8, 7 August. Section 12. Soviet RV Belggorsk Cruise 75-1, 23 August (not drawn, see text) . Section 13. Soviet RV Belogorsk Cruise 75-2, 25-26 September. Section 14. NOAA RV Albatross IV Cruise 7 5-12, 7-8 October. Section 15. Soviet RV Eelcgorsk Cruise 75-3, 29-30 October. Section 16. German Federal Republic RV Anton Dohrn Cruise 75-1 , 15 November. Section 17, University cf Rhode Island RV Trident Cruise 175, 10 December. Section 18. NOAA RV Altatrcss IV Cruise 75-14, 16-17 December. 286 SECTION I K UJ I- Ul X I- Q. UJ O 100- 200- 300- 400- 500- 0 50 NAUTICAL MILES SECTION 2 OD X o oo 1 0~ •'4.5 ^<5//^ / ^^^swj^y 100- ^w^ liM \ ' i/;; V * U2 200- V • / 10 4 300- 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 50 NAUTICAL MILES 287 SECTION 4 q: UJ I- UJ SECTION 3 100- Q. Ul o 200- NAUTICAL MILES m X CVJ r\ . _ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100- A ■ < ' /'P 5 5 re ]/, g , 0 0 (J) ^^0 i ^12 200- b la 300- / 1 • ACiO 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 50 NAUTICAL MILES 288 SECTION 5 UJ I- UJ X I- a. UJ o 200 200 NAUTICAL MILES SECTION 6 I I \ \ \ I r 0 50 NAUTICAL MILES SECTION 7 00 ID U> 00 0) « 0> ^ M (^ O ^ 0 o in M o M +» O C Q) Ui (0 0) •H Q) U o > H (u ^ 0) M > O u a> M 0) rH ^J ■p o XI ■»j m •H M O I I CO 0) H EH PL< CO Q) •H > o o QJ Pi o ^2; Pi en 0) m 0) tH 0) Pi o ^ 3 >-l rH !-l 0) Cd o > 4J o o ^ OHO (^ CO rH in t^ +0 CU CO Pi m w O jz; CD tH CN eg CD o o « £^ Csl •o 42 •, CO cd CU Id cd B ■p Pi • CO • 0) o ^ CNj fO CN) CM rH CO Distance ease (Km) 4-) O CO CTN CO Pi Pi 1 CO CO Cn| o CM cd ^ x; p Pi o vO x> -X) o ^ CM o o o o o O > ia -i CU rJd CU >^ rCl e '2 M rH e CU e Cd ►G rH (U 4J CU 3 O •H p P. > ci M >-l ^ ^^ Ph IW o Xi +J 3 o CO >^ rH ■P O CU y* •H . TJ CO d CO o C -H O +J •H -H 4J CO Cd o i-> a, CO CU eg CO Cd e CU • O rH CO U CU a u-l >-l o •H CO mh 4J c o Cd ^-| 4-) 3 .p CO •P CO CU 0) CO u ^ Xi • r\ 0) 4J >^ T3 >-l cd 3 O PQ rH C O 15 a T3 o •H (U rH f-l CO P (U a o > o c o o s CO ^ -o CU rH u c c 0) o o :$ •H CO P rC CU cd o CO rH -H Cd 3 ^ (U o & rH rH QJ cd mh Pi c_> o CM 305 79« 78' 77' 80« \ 75" tape// QO O/ ^-^ No. Release Stations - 62 Total Recovery- 18.1% Range in Recovery Time - 26-134 days 35' 34» 33* ^32* 31' 30* 76* -29» -28* 78* 77« Figure 18.1.— Drift bottle cruise 15-18 September 1974. 306 79° 78"" 77" 76° 75° "^ o.- O: No. Release Stations - 51 Total Recovery- 43.1 % Range in Recovery Time - 3- 102 days 35° -34° 33° ^75° 32° ■30* 76" -29» 28° 78° 77' Figure 18.2.— Drift bottle cruise 31 August-19 September 1975. 307 81° 80° 79° 78° 77° 76° 35° J 1 1 ^^o^^v o /o o o / / a/o o o o o o (^ 35° 34° V Fear /if ^Z'"' O O O O O /^ ^"iS^^yWyi (/ o o o o Oy/ 34P L» /» %yW\^^^^^ o o / ^^ifejft:*'^ oy'^ 33" / ^ Cape Romain ^f ^^^SmS^W^ ■' y^ 3y ^^^^■y^i^i^^-"-^' ^^ ma^m/^ oy -^ .^^ ^/ y^ ^.^^■^ ^20% recovery ¥ / / ^^^^ ^ i60% recovery 32* ntv / . /l 1 1 1 - 32° 81* 80° 79« 78" 77" 76° Figure 18.3.— The submerged projection of Cape Fear, N.C. indicated by the 20-m isobath contour, and the percent of drift re- covery from bottles released in September 1974. 308 J Section 19 THE DISTEIBUTION ANE flEUNDflNCE, GPOWTH, AND MORTALITY OF GEOEGES EANK-NANTUCKET SHOALS HEERING LARVAE DURING THE 1975-76 WINTER PERIODI R. Gregory Lough^ INTRODUCTION The NOAA research vessel Albatross IV conducted two plankton- hydrography cruises during December 1975 and February 1976 in the Georges Bank-Nantucket Shoals area as part of the ICNAF cooperative surveys to monitor larval herring production, growth, mortality, and dispersal. The surveys were initiated in 1971 to gain a better understanding of the various physical and biological factors affecting larval survival and relative strength of recruitment. Herring typically spawn in the northeast part of Georges Bark and Nantucket Shoals. The bulk of the larvae hatch in lat€ September-October, dispersing in a southwesterly direction at the rate of 1-5 m/day (Boyar et al. 1973, Bumpus 1976). Maximum dispersion of the larvae occurs by December when they are usually found covering the entire Georges Bank-Nantucket Shoals area within the ICO-m contour. Larvae grow about 5 ram per month from initial hatching at 6-mm length in September to post-larvae of 50-55 mm by June. One of the leading hypotheses being investigated is that the number of recruits available in the third spring is most strongly dependent upon survival through the first winter period when planktonic food organisms are sparse. Results of the 1975-76 winter surveys are presented in this paper and compared with the two previous winters. 3 ^Summarized from INCAF Res. Doc. 76/VI/123. ^Northeast Fisheries Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, Narragansett, RI 02882. ^Lough, R. G., and H. D. Grosslein. 1975. Winter mortality of Georges Bank herring larvae. ICNAF Res. Doc. 75/113:39 p. 309 Section 19 RESULTS Sairpling on Georges Bank-Nantucket Shoals proceeded from east to west for both cruises. The December plots of herring larvae per 1C sg m (Figs. 19.1-19.3) show most catches of herring larvae within the lOC-m contour area but distributed more on the central-northern edge of Gecrges Bank and Nantucket Shoals. The westernmost distribution of larvae was not delimited by this cruise. Densities of larvae typically were 10-100/10 sq m {"Fig. 19.3). Highest densities occurred along the northern part of Georges Bank and the northern Nantucket Shoals area. Some recently hatched larvae (<10 mm) were observed on a few stations in the northeast Georges Bank and Great South Channel area. Smaller size larvae of 10-15 mm (Fig. 19.2) were distributed more in the Nantucket Shoals area than on Georges Bank. Larval catches by February 1976 (Fig. 19.4) appeared to be consolidated into three main areas within the 100-m contour: 1) northeast central part of Georges Bank, 2) southwest central Georges Bank-Great South Channel, and 3) a small pocket south of ^^artha's Vineyard. Few larvae appeared outside the 100-m contour. The western distribution of larvae was clearly defined by the February survey. Densities of larvae generally were lower than in December; however, two stations in the northeast part of Georges Bank had 203 and 507 larvae/10 sq m. The December 1975 and February 1976 larval length-frequency distributions for Nantucket Shoals and Georges Bank are shewn in Figures 19.5 and 19.6. Two length modes appeared daring December in the Nantucket Shoals area, 9-15 mm and 16-22 mm, whereas the Georges Bank population had one dominant length mode of 13-24 mm. Mean lengths for the Nantucket Shoals and Georges Bank larval populations were 16.2 mm and 17.4 mm respectively. By February 1976 the larval length means had increased to 30,5 mm for the Nantucket Shoals population and to 31.3 mm for the Georges Bank population. A single broad modal length was observed for the larval population in each area. The three subpopulations of larvae observed during February 1976 were analyzed further for differences among their length- frequency distributions. The small numbers of larvae in the Nantucket Shoals population had a mean length of 1-2 mm greater than the populations in southwest Georges Bank-Great South Channel and northeast Georges Bank, There was no significant difference between the length-frequency populations for northeast Georges Bank and southwest Georges Bank-Great South Channel. A significant difference at the 10% probability level was calculated between the northeast Georges Bark and the Nantucket Shoals population length frequencies, and a significant difference at the 1% level was found between southwest Georges Bank-Great South Channel and Nantucket Shoals length frequencies. The small number of large larvae just south of Martha's Vineyard may indicate a shoreward migration of older 310 Section 19 larva.e in the Nantucket Shoals area. Larval abundance, mortality, and growth estimates for Georges Bank and Nantucket Shoals areas during December 1975 and February 1976 and the two previous winters are given in Table 19.1. Georges Bank larval abundance in December 1975 was considerably lower (1,120) than for the previous two years (7,410 and 5,076 in 1974 and 1973, respectively) , however, the February abundance estimates were similar for all three years (range 406-506) . A corresponding change was observed for estimates of mortality, growth, and mean length. Mortality rate decreased from 3.93^/day, December 1 973-February 1974, to 1.27%/day, December 1 975-February 1976. Larval mean length was greater for each successive December with a considerable increase in mean length by February each year. The same trends in larval mortality and growth rates were shown for the Georges Bank and Nantucket Shoals total; when mortality was low, growth was high, and the converse. The Nantucket Shoals area mortality and growth estimates were somewhat more inconsistent, reflective of the fewer numbers of larvae collected. For instance, the December 1 973-February 1974 mortality and growth rates are at variance with the same estimates from the Georges Bank and combined areas. Very few larvae were collected in the Nantucket Shoals area during February 1974. Water temperatures of 9-11C predominated over the Georges Eank-Nantucket Shoals area during December 1975 (Figs. 19.7-19.9) and 5-6C during February 1976 (Figs. 19.10-19.12). Mean temperatures and other statistics at various levels on Georges Bank and Nantucket Shoals during December 1975 and February 1976 are given in Table 19.2. Temperatures generally increase with depth and seaward of the 100-m depth contour along the southern part of the bank in the area of the warm Slope Water front. Georges Bank mean temperatures (0-50 ra) during December and February 1975-76 were the same as the previous year, 1974-75; however, temperatures during the same months in 1973-74 were about 0.5C warmer (Table 19.1). Nantucket Shoals mean temperatures (C-50 m) were similar to those of Georges Bank except that they were about 1C warmer during Deceirber. Also, no significant trends were apparent in the mean temperatures from September through December of 1975 compared with the previous year, 1974. On the other hand, Davis (Section 14) found mean October bottom temperatures on Georges Bank to be similarly high for 1973 and 1974 (X = 13.4 and 13. 2C, respectively), but more than a degree lower (X = 12.1) for 1975. It is interesting to note from Davis's study that the eastern part of Georges Bank is always several degrees colder during the fall than the central and western parts even though the yearly temperature trends are similar for all three parts. 311 Section 19 riSCUSSTON The distribution of larvae on Georges Bank and Nantucket Shoals was very similar during December 1973 and 1974 (see footnote 3). Uniformly high catches of larvae were observed within the 100-m bottom contour. Larval abundance also was similar for both years. During December 1975, however, the distribution of larvae was markedly different; the population was centered in the northern part of the Great South Channel and along the northern half of Georges Bank. Also, abundance of larvae was reduced compared to the previous two Decembers. No larvae were found beyond the southern lOO-m contour in December 1975 as were observed during 1973 and 1974. Larvae observed along the southern boundary would indicate some offshore dispersal of larvae into Slope Waters. Larval abundance and distribution during February was broadly siipilar for all three years, 1974-76; the bulk of the larval populations usually is located in a more restricted area in the central part of southwest Georges Bank extending across the Great South Channel into Nantucket Shoals. However, the February 1976 distribution was unusual in that three separate concentrations of larvae were observed; high densities of larvae were collected in the northeast part of Georges Bank in addition to the central part. It appears that the center of the larval population in December 1975 moved to a more southerly position by February 1976. The limited hydrographic data on temperature for these two surveys does not show any evidence for a southerly current transport. A southerly flow of surface waters is suggested for th€ Georges Bank area during the winter months with a westerly component across the Great South Channel (Eumpus and Lauzier 1965). Surface drift during the fall and winter months is different from the clockwise circulation observed for the other seasons and may respond more to short-term wind effects. Results from past ICNAF Larval Herring Surveys show that advecticn of larvae is principally southwest and that the larvae are retained in the Georges Bank-Nantucket Shoals area (Bumpus 1976). Recent observations of interest this past season are the occurrence in Georges Bank-Nantucket Shoals of large numbers of the colonial siphonophore, Nanoraia cara, a cold-water form found in the Gulf of Maine, but rarely below Cape Cod .(Rogers, Section 20). Their southerly occurrence on Georges Bank during fall 1975 corresponds with the more southerly movement of herring larvae. These changes in the distribution of animal populations suggest changes in circulation patterns in the study area that may result in potentially different prey-predator interactions. Their impact on the larval herring population still needs to be assessed. 312 Section 19 Size and growth rates of the Georges Bank-Nantucket Shoals herring larvae are indicators of the population's physiological condition and are closely linked to mortality rates. According to recent theoretical nicdels by Jones and Hall (19'74), Gushing (1973, 1974, 1975), and Ware (1975), mortality and growth during larval life are believed to be a density-dependent process regulated by the availability of food. If food is abundant, larvae are able to grow rapidly through a succession of decreasing predatory fields, thereby reducing their mortality. The three winters of Georges Bank-Nantucket Shoals larval herring data presented here also suggest that density-dependent growth and mortality have occurred. A decrease in larval abundance was associated with an increase in growth rate and a decrease in mortality rate. According to Ware's (1975) theoretical model based on larval studies of plaice, haddock, and mackerel, larval growth exceeds mortality (M = 0.7G) under average conditions. Only the 1975-76 winter growth rate exceeded the mortality rate for Georges Bank-Nantucket Shoals herring larvae. More refined estimates of growth and mortality will be made in the future, but the following considerations must be taken into account when one attempts to relate field estimates of population parameters with theoretical models: 1 . Winter growth and mortality rates for Georges Bank-Nantucket Shoals herring larvae are estimated for a relatively short period and may well vary at other periods or from the average condition for the entire larval life. Growth was assumed to be an exponential curve but this may not necessarily be true during the winter period. Also, the length to weight regression was based on samples combined over four years; this relationship varies from year to year depending on condition of the larvae. 2. The low mortality estimate (1.27%/day) for Georges Bank larvae during the 1975-76 winter compared to the previous two winters (about 3.9%/day) might have been due to a greater westward dispersal of the Georges Bank larval population into the Nantucket Shoals area. That is, dispersal may have been responsible for a high loss rate and not mortality per se. Based on the separate and combined estimates of mortality and growth for both areas, it appears that dispersal of larvae from Georges Bank into Nantucket Shoals is small at this time in their life and does not significantly alter the dominant trends in mortality and growth, 3. Growth rate of late larvae may be underestimated due to avoidance of the sampling gear, particularly if larvae are of greater size in the same time period from one year to the next. Perhaps growth rates of late larvae should be estimated from larvae collected during night tows only. 313 Section 1 9 U. The increased size of Georges Bank larvae in December with the concomitantly greater growth through the winter during the three years in both areas may have been influenced to a great extent initially by conditions during the early larval period in the fall. Considerable variability was observed during the past three years in the time of initial hatching of larvae, total production, and the duration of the spawning-hatching season as indicated by length-freguency modes.'* Production of larvae was high in 1973 and 1974, but considerably lower for the 1975 season as suggested by the December and November surveys. 5 Recently hatched larvae were observed on Georges Bank in late September 1973, early October 1974, and late October 1975. Despite the increasing lateness of the hatching season from 1973 to 1975, larvae were successively larger by December. There is some evidence to suggest that bottom-water temperatures were cooler during October 1975 than the previous two years at a time when most of the larval hatching occurs. While temperature conditions in the spawning beds may control the maturation of eggs and hatching times from year to year, they would not appear to have a direct effect on growth and mortality of the larvae. Significant differences in temperature trends during December and February were not observed over the three years. The growth and mortality process are more likely a function of the available food supply and predators. Analyses of the zooplankton community and larval gut contents are in progress and may elucidate some of the causal mechanisms in the larval- plankton-environment matrix. It is desirable at this time to examine possible relations among early and late larval abundance and the size of the recruited year class for sea herring. Studies off coastal Maine by Graham et al. (1972) and Graham and Davis (1971) indicated that the initial abundance of larvae in the fall was reduced to a common level by early winter each year. Although mortality was higher in the fall than the winter, the winter period was considered critical in that years of low winter mortality were subsequently related to a greater percentage of that year class as 2-yr-old fish in the fishery. A comparison is made in Table 19.3 of the available data on initial larval production (larvae <10 mm standard length), December larval abundance (>15 mm), and catch '^Schnack, D. 1975. Summary of ICNAF Joint Larval Herring Surveys in Georges Bank-Gulf of Maine areas, September- December 1974. ICNAF Pes. Doc. 75/112, 23 p. ^Joakimsson, G., 1976. Report of the ICNAF larval herring cruise, R/V Anton Dohrn, November 1975, in Georges Bank-N antucket Shoals areas. ICNAF Res. Doc. 76/VI/80, 17 p. 314 Section 19 per tow of 3-yr-old herring in the Georges Bank-Nantucket Shoals area. No estimate could be made for the 1975 initial abundance of larvae as all the data are not available yet. The time series of data is still too short to permit firm conclusions, but several points seem to corroborate past thinking. The initial production of larvae does not appear to be directly related to the size of the subsequent recruited year class, and in fact, there may be an inverse relationship at the extremes of abundance — a density-dependent function. Rlso, the relative abundance of larvae as late as December still appears to be proportional to the initial production of larvae in the fall. However, differential winter mortality occurs between December and February, and by February (Table 19.1) it does appear that the size of the recruited year class may be set. We believe, therefore, that for herring in the Georges Bank-Nantucket Shoals area, the winter period is critical in establishing the year class. We still need to study the entire larval period to understand the processes which may influence survival through the winter period and more urusual events that occur in early larval life. IITEBATUEE CITED BCYAF, H. C, R. B. MARAK, F. E. PERKINS, and R. A. CLIFFORD. 1973. Seasonal distribution and growth of larval herring (Clujpea harengus L.) in the Georges Bank-Gulf of Maine area from 1962 to 1970. J. Cons. 35:36-51. BUMPUS, D. F. 1976. Review of the physical oceanography of Georges Bank. Int. Comm. Northwest Atl . Fish., Res. Bull. 12. BUMPUS, D. F., and L. M. lAUZIEE. 1965. Surface circulation on the Continental Shelf off eastern North America between Newfoundland and Florida. Am. Geogr. Soc . , Ser. Atlas Mar. Environ. Folio 7. CtSHING, D. H. 1973. Food and the stabilization mechanisir in fishes. Mar. Bid. Assoc. India, Spec. Publ. , p. 29-39. 1974. The possible density-dependence of larval mortality and adult mortality in fishes. In Blaxter, J. H. S. (editor) , The early life history of fish, p. 103-111. Springer- Verlag, N.Y. 1975. The natural mortality of plaice. J. Cons. 36:150-157. 315 Section 19 GBAHAM, J. J., S. B. CHENCWETH, and C. W. DAVIS. 1972. Atundance, distribution, movements, and lengths of larval herring along the western coast of the Gulf of I^aine, Fish. Bull., U.S. 70:307-321. GBAHAM, J. J., and C. W. DAVIS. 1971. Estimates of mortality and year class strength of larval herring in western Maine, 1964-67. Papp. P.-V. Feun. Cons. Int. Explor. Mer. 160:147-152. JONES, B., and W. B. HALL. 1974. Seme observations on the population dynamics of the larval stage in the common gadoids. In Rlaxter, J. H. S. (editor). The early life history of fish, p. 8''-102. Springer-Verlag, Berlin. WAEE, P. M. 1975. Relation between egg size, growth, and natural mortal- ity of larval fish. J. Fish. Res. Bd . Can. 32:2503-2512. 316 a; s- =j ■♦J i. (U Q. E s- c *r** s- , S- (/T ^ X o 4-> c CO ■D 0 U1 0) S- cr> 01 s~ n 0 Ol ^ CD Ol ■!-> L. c: 0 ■r— <♦- 2 VJ Q) 0) Q) +J t. 10 .c- B ■t-J *r~ +J m ■0 2 0 i~ en TD c (O i- o (0 EH o o 0 S- >, 01 fo la 4-> +-> 3 i- C — - OJ fO CL +J ^ CO +-> s^ l-H O S- CD ^' CO re a> E OJ c E 3 re ■— ^ 0 5- >, (U re e >>X) fO +j +-> •1- t- c r— Ol re re Q- -!-> +j 3 re o s- re 4-> ^ — 4-> •!- ^J C >— I re re — +-> +J 10 t- c o I— OcD re c I I- XI r-H re c -I 3 X re c o •r- S_ O) +-> a. c at o c a. •>- TD re 00 ^ n CTi r-« en t^ VO I-H 0 CTl <£) en 0 C^J LD 00 00 00 0 kD en ID CTl LO t-t UD t-H tn i-H LD r-l VO 0 un 0 IT) 00 o o 00 00 -It CO ro in o 10 o re _l c/> i^ ^ CTlr LT) r^ «* T-i CO r-^ f-H 0 >^ • • • • 0 > • « • • • 1— • • • • • • VJD t~~. r-H ZIZ Ln r^ ^ r-. U3 0 LU yD CO 10 VO r^ .-1 CQ .-H CM i-< CM <-< CO 00 T-l CM rH CM l-H CO '-I CM .-1 CM T-H CO 01 1— z=> LlJ UJ t— to i^ z d; 0 <: 0 ra :z CO en 00 CM o o CO 00 o CO C£J DC O IxJ o 00 o CM LT) O o o o CO T-l o o CM cn T-t VD ^ CM 0 0 0 a CM CJ LO I— I o o <£> VO 0 VO 0 r~. rH P-« ^ CO r-- cy> r^ CO ^ or r^ vD r--. 0 .-1 0 CM vn 0 Ln •vl- 0 ■It- "^ 1 — VO LO 0 VO 0 0 -^ «^ LD i-H >* 00 cn i-i VO —) 00 «^ OO VO 1^ VO LO r- T— 1 CM CM r-^ 0 r-H CO <:i- . r>. r-~ r-^ LO r^ t^ r-~ r^ r^ LO r^ r~. 1^ r^ r^ LO r^ o% cn cn cn r>. cn cn cn cn cn 1-^ cn cn cn cn cn r~~ cn I-H t— 1 I— 1 I-H en .-1 r-4 «-( •-« I— 1 •— 1 cn I— 1 «-< rH I— 1 r-i cn .-1 I— 1 #« «« «« A M A M «t M e. A «« «> A A CO *3- CO "^ ..VO CO ^ CO «=f ^vo CO "«a- CO ^ «VO r-l t— 1 1—1 r-t cn .-1 .— 1 l—t «— 1 1—4 1 5 mm), and an index of abundance at age 3 from the juvenile herring surveys in the Georges Bank- Nantucket Shoals area. Initial Larval December Larval Index of Abundance Production Production (age 3) Year-Class <10 mm length >15 mm length (no. per (n X 10-11) (n X 10-9) 30 min. tow) GEORGES BANK 1971 150 180 924 1972 49 47 42 1973 1200 550 10 1974 1300 650 1975 - 89 NANTUCKET SHOALS 1971 13 50 608 1972 180 36 5 1973 850 180 33 1974 230 130 1975 -42 GEORGES BANK & NANTUCKET SHOALS TOTAL 1971 160 230 1532 1972 230 80 47 1973 2100 730 43 1974 1600 780 1975 - 131 319 ■ " u / zoom'' Figure 19.1.— Distribution of iarval fish (10-15 mm) Clupea harengus, RV Albatross IV Cruise 75-14, 5-17 December 1975. 320 ti.o 3.0 :c.i i.< IJ.O i.s / ""■"*. JO.O U. I es.3- J1.0 ''".< 8S.3 1\.% c.s «!.S ST.! \ lOJ."? / / 130. « 9.3 ts.i IS.O 9<.1 !5.J f 1 / «T.« in 1 38. J S;.6 U.9 10.1 tl.l 13.0 so., M.l 12.0 «'•' 3.. »'•« l.t l.C / / 1 1 / Is.s looh' Figure 19.2.-Distribution of larval fish (>15 mm) Clupea harengus, RV Albatross IV Cruise 75-14, 5-17 December 1975. 321 Sl.O 1.* 57.! !.« 1!.5 1.1 103.r J,., 15mm) Clupea harengus, RV Albatross Cruise 76-01, 9-25 February 1976. 323 20 15 10 5 5 0 X S 15 Nantucket Shoals 75-14 ^^\ N = 437 / \ j\ / •-•«.,^ \ 4=f=^ •* T 1 1 1 1 1 1— 10 15 *•»•••—•, 20 "■ — ' "r I — ' — ' — r^J„ ' — r 25 30 ' 3'5 ' ■ ' ' Geo N = 787 10 rges Bank 75-14 / \ / \ y\.^' \ •— «.< '-^^ 1 — I — T — 1 — J — I — T— T — I — I — I — I — I — I — I — I — I — I — I — I — I — I — I — I — r-=T — I — I — I — I — I — I — I — I — I — r 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Length (mm) Figure 19.5.— Percentage length frequency for Nantucket Shoals and Georges Bank herring larvae collected 5-17 Decennber 1975, RV Albatross /V Cruise 75-14. 324 2\i 15 - Nantucket Shoals 76-1 J\ N = 157 \ lU r' \ " 5 r©" >^ n ^~ •— ^a/ X- " f ' 1 1 1 1 r 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 10 15 1 1 1 1 20 1 1 1 1 1 r 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 25 30 35 *• s w 15 — Georges Banks 76-1 K - N = 534 10 — / \ 5 — 0 I r r I I ■ r r — i — i — i — f — r — i — i — T — r— 1 — T 1 — r — r— T — 1 — 1 — 1 — 1 — 1 — 1 — I — 1 — I — 1 — 1 — 1 — T— 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Length (mm) Figure 19.6.— Percentage length frequency for Nantucket Shoals and Georges Bank herring larvae collected 10-25 February 1976, RV Albatross IV Cruise 76-01. 325 45- ALbatross IV Cruise 75- 14 Dec. 2-17, 1975 Temperature ("c) at Surface 44 100 M / 7r 70° 69° 68° 67° 66° 65° Figure 19.7.— Sea surface temperature (degrees C), RV Albatross IV Cruise 75-14, 2-17 December 1975. 6-;° 326 45' Albatross IV Cruise 75 - 14 Dec. 2-17, 1975 Temperature (*C) at 30m 44" 100 n45 18 40° 71° 70° 69° 68° 67° 66° 65° 61° Figure 19.8.— Seawater temperature (degrees C) at 30 m, RV Albatross IV Cruise 75-14, 2-17 December 1975. 327 45° — Albatross IV Cruise 75- 14 Dec. 2-17, 1975 Temperature (°C) at 100m 44< 40' 100 M 15 -' 15- J_ 40" 71° 70° 69° 68° 67° 66° 65° 64° Figure 19.9.— Seawater temperature (degrees C) at 100m, RV Albatross IV Cruise 75-14, 2-17 December 1975. 328 45' Albatross IV Cruise Feb. 9 - 25 , 1976 Temperature CC) at Surface 76-01 4"; 6.7? — 40° 71° 70° 69° 69° 67° 66° 65° 64* Figure 19.10.— Sea surface temperature (degrees C), RV Albatross IV Cruise 76-01, 9-25 February 1976. 329 45° Albatross IV Cruise 7601 Feb. 9-25, 1976 Temperature i'C) at 30m 44 43° 40° 100 M I 71° 70° 69° 68° 67° 66° 65° Figure 19.11.— Seawater temperature (degrees C) at 30 m, RV-A/b afross /V Cruise 76-01, 9-25 February 1976. 61° 330 45* Albatross IV Cruise 7601 Feb. 9-25, 1976 Temperature ("c) at 100m 44 43' AO" 7r 70* 69° 68° 67° 66° 65° 64° Figure 19.12.— Seawater temperature (degrees C) at 100 m, RW Albatross IV Cruise 76-01, 9-25 February 1976. 331 Section 20 IMPACT OF AUTDMN-WINTEE SWAFMTNG OF A SIEHONOPHOEE f'LIPO") ON FISHING IN COASTAL WATERS OF NEW ENGLAND 1 Carolyn A. Pogers PPOELEM Early in August 1975, fishermen from Gloucester, r^A, and Portland, ME, began tc otserve some fouling of their nets by a pin]<: gelatinous material which was referred to as "lipo," the Sicilian word for slime. There was a gradual increase in the amount encountered, reaching a 3-mc maximum between October and December. A reduction was observed in middle to late December with some lipo still observed in January 1976. Fishing nets dragged through this mass became clogged so that water could no longer readily pass through the meshes, decreasing the fishing efficiency of the nets. Fish were seldom caught in an area where lipc concentrations were high. From the information available, it is not clear whether this was due to decreased fishing efficiency of the nets or avoidance of the mass by fish. IMPACT Early reports caused no concern, but as more and more vessels lost fishing time because of having to clean gear, or not fishing for a day at a time in order to avoid the possibility of getting hung up in the lipo, interest in the phencirencn grew. Hardest hit were the inshore trawlers, especially the whiting fishermen and the shrimpers who used small meshed nets. These fleets are concentrated primarily at Gloucester and Portland. •^Summarized from Environmental Impact Report 1-76, MAPMAP Contribution No. 112, and Environmental Impact Report 2-76, MARMAP Contribution No. 120. ^Northeast Fisheries Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, Narragansett , PI 02882. 333 Section 20 Boston and Provincetown , MA, port agents indicated that there was no problem, but these fleets fished offshore and used larger meshed nets. Pobert Morrill, NMFS port agent at Portland, indicated that all of the 75 vessels there encountered a probleir with the lipo at least once during the ?-mo period (October-December 1975). He estimated an overall 20% loss of fishing time to the shrimp trawlers. Similar reports were received by James Thomas, State of Maine biologist at Boothbay Harbor, and Peter Marckoon, NMFS Port Agent at Pockland, ME. Arv Foshkus, NMFS port agent in Gloucester, reported that, by a conservative estimate, 60 inshore trawlers were involved and that up to 2Qf of fishing time was lost either in cleaning gear or by not fishing. In a recent (26 December 1975) letter to William Gordon, Regional Director cf NMFS Northeast Region, Salvatore J, Favazza, Executive Secretary of the Gloucester Fisheries Commission stated that "... it (lipo) has caused an economic loss to Gloucester fishermen of at least $1CC,C00 in 1975 and possibly as much as $300,000." Although no figures were made available for less to the Maine shrimp industry, it is probable the losses were comparable . DISTRIBUTION H^l^ol^B^ Observations The siphonophore Nanomia cara was observed during the Helgoland underwater habitat mission (5 August-21 November 1975) on Jeffries Ledge (Rogers et al. , in press) . Personnel on surface vessels noted its presence near the surface and H. Wes Pratt, a diver for the mission, reported that siphonophores were most numerous during August and September, but were scarce in October and November. He estimated a density of about one per cubic meter in the area cf the Helgoland habitat (Location X, Fig. 20.1) during the high density periods. The length of a total colony was approximately 30 cm. In situ, most of the animal was transparent except for the gcnophores which were pink to salmon. The siphonophores appeared very fragile. They were densest in the top 2-3 m; below 15 m few were observed. Pratt stated that their daytime distribution was patchy in both space and time in the vicinity of the Helgoland habitat. Kevin McCarthy, a support diver for the mission, corroborated these observations. 334 Section 20 Survey Results According to reports froir the fishermen, the siphoncphore masses occurred at depths of 40-100 ra and were recorded on depth sounding equipment as being up to 50 m thick. They reported traces at the bottom during th€ daylight and off the bottom in the dark, indicating the ability of the siphonophores to migrate vertically. Fishermen encountered siphonophores from Stellwagen Bank off Massachusetts Bay to Rockland, ME. Plankton samples were ^i^atross 2,1 cruises (7 of the MARMAF survey and Fisheries Center (NEF 7 October- 17 December, 1 October-7 November 1975, the area frcm Cape Cod, cruise (75-1) , part of waters of Maine U-9 Sept with paired bongo sample nets. Oblique tows, at column from the surface maximum depth. The bong at 20 m/min, the m approximately 23 min. E only fragments were ava total of 422 samples was the NEFC Plankton Sort cf Ni cara occurrence, a siphonophor e tentativel in the irore complete ver over the continental abundance and size are g siphonophores of the sp on the Delaware II cruis show more clearly tha extend very far south of nature of relative size horizontal projections c means for locating ar available for further precise data be required taken in the Gulf of Maine on four 5-12 II, 75-12 III, 75-13, 75-14) as part monitoring program of the Northeast C) . The cruises included the period 975. A Delaware II cruise (75-17) 15 also part of the MARMAP program, sampled MA, to Cape Hatter as, NC. A Challenge NEFC's Biome Survey, sampled the coastal ember 1975. All samples were collected rs fitted with 0.333-mm and 0.505-mm mesh 1.5-3.5 kn, were made through the water to within 10 m of the bottom or to 100 m OS were set out at 50 m/min and retrived aximum time of a plankton tow being ecause of the fragile nature of N^ cara, liable in the samples for examination. A examined at a magnification of 10X by ing Group at Narragansett, RI . A summary s well as the occurrence of another y identified as Halistemma sp. , was given sion of this report. The distribution shelf and area plots showing relative iver in Figures 20.2-20,9. Although no ecies N. cara were found in samples taken e. Figures 20.6 and 20.7 were included to t the normal range of N^ cara does not Cape Cod. I recognize the subjective and abundance information, but felt that f area distributions would be a useful eas of maximal swarming. The samples are examination and analysis should more A September survey of coastal fish stocks in New England waters made during Biome operations yielded N^^ cara only in the offshore stations [15-20 mi (24-32 km) from the coast] and only in stations north of Penobscot Bay (Figs. 20.1, 20.8, 20.9). This coincides with the inshore distribution of siphonophores found on Albatross IV cruises 75-12 II and III, 7 October-18 November (Figs. 20,4 , 20,5) , 335 Section 20 During this period the distribution of N^ cara extended intc the Bay cf Fundy and occurred in almost all samples taken in the Gulf of Maine and eastward around the periphery of Georges and Browns Banks. The later cruise (2-17 December) sampled the southern portion of the Gulf of Maine, Georges Bank, and the region south of Cape Cod (Figs. 20.1, 20. U, 20.5). Plankton samples from the Delaware II cruise (15 October- 7 November) had few siphonophores (Figs. 20.6, 20.7) . Four stations off the New Jersey and Long Island coasts and five stations somewhat clustered just north of Cape Hatteras were the only areas in which they were found. All stations were within the 15-fathom line. On first examination they appeared to be N» cara, but when D. C. Eiggs, siphonophore expert from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, examined them he tentatively identified them as Halistemjra sp. The species within this genus are typically tropic to temperate so their presence in these areas is not surprising. The Gulf of Maine samples showed that in October and early November the individual colonies of N^ cara were generally small and constituted only a sipall portion of the zocplankton biomass. The December samples shewed a greater range of small to large individuals and they often made up a more substantial portion of the zooplankton biomass. In general, in the earlier months the greatest mass of siphonophores was found within 15 mi (24 km) of the coast, but by December the concentration was centered farther offshore. The colonies of N^ cara also had a high density of lipids, probably as a result of feeding on overwintering populations of oil-rich calanoid copepods.^ Biggs feels that the swarming of ^- cara may be behavioral, that because of heavy concentrations of copepods, the siphonophores may be altering their swimming behavior to stay in areas of high food density. An effort will be made to determine if copepod abundance was greater during the fall and winter months of 1975 than in previous years. Larry Davis, NEFC, Narragansett , RI, has been studying long-term temperature trends of the Gulf of Maine. According to his data, there has been a net warming trend in the autumn from 1968 through 1974. In 1975 the average temperature of an 8-year mean for the entire Gulf of Maine dropped 0.6C (Davis, Section 14). Ed Cohen, "^ in cooperation with the Atlantic Environmental Group ^Personal communication from D. C. Biggs, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543. '^Monthly temperature transect for the Gulf of Maine, August through December (unpub. doc), NEFC, Woods Hole, MA 02543. 336 Section 20 at Narr agansctt, FI, has been compiling temperature data on transects from Bar Harbor to Yarmouth and comparing the results to Colton and Stoddard's (1973) 20- to 23- year means. The 1975 monthly data (June- December) indicate that the southern portion of the Bay of Fundy is warmer than the 20-yr monthly means (Chamberlin et al.. Section 15). Data from Challenc|e 75-1 and Albatross IV 75-12 cruises show siphonophores occurring in waters with surface temperatures as high as 18. 5C and bottom temperatures as high as 13. 5C. The respective temperature lows for the combined cruises were 10. OC and 5.5C. Maximum numbers of siphonophores were found at surface temperatures of 6.0C and above. Fishermen reported that the siphonophores diminished in the coastal waters as temperatures dropped from autumn to winter. SUMMARY The lipo described by the fishermen is identified as a colonial siphonophore Nanomia cara which has a maximum growth peak in late fall when surface temperatures range from IOC to I^IC. Underwater observations (Rogers et al., in press) indicated that the colonies were approximately 30 cm long and at densities close to 1/cu m. There is some indication that as nearshore waters cool, the numbers diminish, although it is not clear whether the siphonophores move offshore or if many of them die off. The reasons for the explosive growth in the fall of 1975 are not yet fully understood, but the warmer than average water temperatures possibly leading to a higher than average autumn-winter density of food organisms may have triggered the swarming. An attempt will be made through the MARMAP monitoring program to follow the seasonal presence and abundance may appear important, be possible to alert siphonophore swarming. distribution of lipo and correlate its with temperature and other factors which Thrcugh this monitoring program it should the inshore fishing fleets to future 337 Section 2C LITERATURE CITEE EUMPUS, D. ?. 1976. Review of the physical oceanography of Georges Bank* In Goulet, J. P., Jr. (compiler). The environment of the United States living marine resources - 197U, p. 13- 1-- 13-17. U.S. Dep. Ccirmer. , Natl. Ocean. Atmos. Admin., Natl. Mar. Fish. Serv. , MARMAP (Mar. Resour. Monit. Assess. Predic. Prog.) Contrib. 104. CCLTCN, J. E., Jr., and B. B. STODDARD. 1973. Bottom-water temperatures on the Continental Shelf, Nova Scotia to New Jersey. U.S. Dep. Commer., NOAA Tech. F.ep., NMFS CIRC-376 , 55 p. ROGEFS, C. A., D. C. BIGGS, and R. A. COOPER. In press. An aggregatiCE of the siphonophere NaU^mia cara Agassiz, 1865 in the Gulf of Maine: Observations from a submersible. Fish. Bull., U.S. 76:281-284. Editors" note: Figures 20.10 through 20.12 are contours of abundance and size of siphonophore colonies for the data presented in Figures 20.2 through 20.5. In October-November the distribution of siphonophores apparently followed the mean circulation patterns in the Gulf of Maine-Georges Bank region (Eumpus 1976) with possible origins in the coastal regions. In December the apparent origin of the siphonophore distributions had moved south and again the distribution seemed to follcw the mean circulation patterns. 338 fc-^ \ / ^'\| ^HELGOLAND SITE :< > / \ %' I '" dP fc*i \ I I \ \ '. \ \ .e *•'.' IX^ / 1. \ . • >: <^ !• *' /'■ f '. \.-^' \^ **• Figure 20.1.— Area in which bongo and neuston net tows were made to sample for the presence of siphonophores. 339 f4- ■;.! 62° NANOMIA CARA ABUNDANCE .333 BONGO SAMPLES ■ FEW • MODERATE ▲ NUMEROUS ALBATROSS IV 75-12, PARTS 118111 FALL BOTTOM TRAWL SURVEY-1975 • • PART II , OCT 7-23 - PART III, NOV 7-18 44° - 42° 40° 72° Figure 20.2. 70° 68° 66° 64° 62° -Relative abundance of Nanomia cara in bongo samples for each station location. No siphonophores were found in samples designated by a point. 340 i.— Relative size of Nanomia cara in bongo samples for each station location. No siphonophores were found in sam designated by a point. pies 341 40° Figure 20.4.— Relative abundance of Nanomia cars in bongo samples for each station location. No siphonophores were found In samples designated by a point. 342 Figure 20.5. — Relative size of Nanomia cara in bongo samples for each station location. No siphonophores were found in samples designated by a point. 343 76 74' 72* 70« 42« DELAWARE II CRUISE 75-17 OCT. 15- NOV 7, 1975 40' 38" 36* 42' 40' • 136 I4p™ • • 138 139 I UNIDENTIFIED SIPHONOPHORE '2^ ABUNDANCE .333 BONGO SAMPLES ■ FEW • MODERATE A NUMEROUS 38" - 36" 76* 74' 72' Figure 20.6.— Relative abundance of an unidentified siphonophore in bongo samples for each station location. No siphonophores were found in samples designated by a point. Il 344 76 74' 72' 70« 42' 40'» - 38* c 36' DELAWARE II CRUISE 75-17 OCT 15- NOV 7, 1975 • 97 (164 . .98 99 161 * '02 ■' '°' '^' 105 . 116 • 103 18 , 107 57 <2o ,24 : UNIDENTIFIED SIPHONOPHORE -I 121 123 129 142 60 154 • i' ■.;" • 131 • 132 135 \l48' • 136 ,1. • 138 SIZE .333 BONGO SAMPLES ■ SMALL • MEDIUM ▲ LARGE n TWO OR MORE SIZES 139 42' 40« 38' 36* 76< 74' 72' Figure 20.7.— Relative size of an unidentified siphonopliore in bongo samples for each station location. No siphonophores were found in samples designated by a point. 345 70' 68« R.V CHALLENGE CRUISE SEPT. 4-9,1975 44« 42« NANOMIA CARA ABUNDANCE •333 BONGO SAMPLES D FEW • MODERATE A NUMEROUS Figure 20.8.— Relative abundance of Nanomia cara in bongo samples for each station location. No siphonophores were found in designated by a point. 346 I 44. _ 42* - R.V CHALLENGE CRUISE 75- SEPT. 4-9,1975 % . ^ \f^ UJ' ' ' . 54 56 sJ^ XJ^iF T .53« ' 49 • 50 A 51 A 52 .38.39 .43«^5 ^^ 37 35 .•-,... • 41 34- NANOMIA CARA SIZE .333 BONGO SAMPLES ■ SMALL • MEDIUM ▲ LARGE D MORE THAN ONE SIZE - 42* 10' 68* Figure 20.9.— Relative size of Nanomia cara in bongo samples for each station location. No sipho- nophores were found in samples designated by a point. 347 72" 70" 68" 66" 64^ Figure 20.10.— Lipo: moderate/numerous (shaded areas), RV Albatross IV 75-12, 7 October-18 November 1975. 62" 348 HI Figure 20.1 1.—Lipo: medium/large (shaded areas) RV^/dafross /V 75-12, 7 October-18 November 1975. 349 Figure 20.12.— Areas of moderate/numerous (upper) and medium/large (lower) siphonophores, RV Albatross IV 75-14, 2-17 December 1975. 350 *GPO. 1978-696-707 388. Proceedings nf the first U.S. -Japan meeting on aquaculture at Tokyo, Japan, October 18-19, 1971. William N. Shaw (editor). (18 papers, 14 authors.) February 1974, iii -I- 133 p. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Prmting Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. hv the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. 392. Fishery publications, calendar year 1974: Lists and indexes. By Lee C. Thorson and Mary Ellen Engett. June 1975, iv + 27 p., 1 fig. 389. Marine flora and fauna of the northeastern United States. Crustacea: Decapoda. By Austin B. Williams. April 1974, iii + 50 p.. Ill figs. For sale bv the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office.' Washington, D.C. 20402. 390. Fishery publications, calendar year 1973: Lists and indexes. By Mary Ellen Engett and Lee C. Thorson. September 1974, iv + 14 p., 1 fig. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, LI.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC. 20402. 391. Calanoid copepods of the genera Spinocalanus and Mimocahnus from the central Arctic Ocean, with a review of the Spinocalanidae. By David M. Damkaer. June 1975, x -I- 88 p., 225 ligs., 4 tables. For sale 393. Cooperative Gulf of Mexico estuarine inventory and study — Texas: Area description. By Richard A. Diener. September 1975, vi + 129 p., 55 figs.. 26 tables. 394. Marine Flora and Fauna of the Northeastern United States. Tar- digrada. Bv Leiand W. Pollock. May 1976, iii -I- 25 p., figs. For sale l>\ I he Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington. D.C. 20402. 395. Report of a colloquium on larval fish mortality studies and their relation to fishery research, January 1975. By John R. Hunter. May 1976. iii + 5 p. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. fjp-st^^-^L.JTH. PENN STATE UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE NATIONAl OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE SCIENTIFIC PUBLICATIONS STAFF ROOM 450 I 107 N E 45TH ST SEATTLE. WA 98105 ADQDD7EDlflTm OFFICIAL BUSINESS NOAA SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNIC/.L PUBLICATIONS NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, was established as part of the Department of Commerce on October 3, 1970. 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