U. S. Department of Transportation United States Coast Guard Report of the fn International Ice PatroHfri in the North Atlantic \RY ...•.„ I >, AV-- r-i^i^ L„i .-_^. ir.SJ .' 1. _^-,,t s s ..re-' . 1» i.' CURRENT* ICE CHART Based on Observations made by U.S. REVENUE CUTTER SENECA SEASONS OF 1913-1914 ^'8 1997 Season ^'Uy Bu letin No. 83 .A/5 CG-1 88-52 U. S. Department of Transportation United States Coast Guard DV Report of the International Ice Patrol In the North Atlantic JL1\ UfJi ilw M t.:il_ 1 ., J ."vs • - — *^ ^-^ t-.-. A ^ ^^\Ll. ...„. I ; —- .^™«fc... , — -^ S -; *S '4^ ,/VAr ^.f: :j '■/ .ti-MLjLdL:^. ^ Irk t // '4 If .'» - CURRENTS ICE CHART Based on Observations made by U.S. REVENUE CUTTER SENECA SEASONS OF 1913-1914 1 997 Season Bulletin No. 83 CG-1 88-52 ^3 Bulletin No. 83 REPORT OF THE INTERNATIONAL ICE PATROL IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC Season of 1997 CG-188-52 Forwarded herewith is Bulletin No. S3 of the Internationa! Ice Patrol, describing the I'atrols's .ser- vices, ice oh.servations and cimditions dunna the \W1 .season. — n'v — ULa^aX- i:. R. RIUTTA Rear Admiral. V. S. Coast duard Assistant Commandant lor Operations ^^B i-n -^^= to !— — : rn International Ice Patrol 1997 Annual Report Contents Introduction 3 Summary of Operations, 1997, 5 Iceberg Reconnaissance and Communications 9 Discussion of Ice Conditions 13 Acknowledgements 32 Appendix A: Nations Currently Supporting International Ice Patrol. 33 Appendix B: Ship Reports 34 Appendix C: Limit-Setting Iceberg Report for the 1997 Season 42 Appendix D: Analysis of IIP Reconnaissance Results 46 Introduction This is the 83nd annual report of the International Ice Patrol (IIP). It contains information on Ice Patrol operations, environmental conditions, and ice conditions for the 1 997 IIP season. The U.S. Coast Guard conducts the Ice Patrol in the North Atlantic under the provisions of U.S. Code, Title 46, Sections 738, 738a through 738d, and the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS), 1974. The IIP is supported by 17 mem- ber nations (Appendix A). It was initiated shortly after the sinking of the RMS TITANIC on April 15, 1912 and has been conducted yearly since that time. Commander, International Ice Patrol (CMP) is under the operational control of Commander, Coast Guard Atlantic Area. CMP directs the Ice Patrol from its Operations Center in Groton, Connecticut. IIP receives ice- berg location reports from ships and planes transiting its patrol area and conducts aerial Ice Reconnaissance Detachments (ICERECDETs) to sur- vey the southeastern, southern, and southwestern regions of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland for icebergs. IIP analyzes ice and environmental data and employs an iceberg drift and deterioration model to produce twice- daily iceberg warnings, which are broadcast to mariners as ice bulletins and facsimile charts. IIP also responds to requests for iceberg information. MP's ICERECDETs were based in St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada during the 1997 season. The cover graphic shows the hand-drawn ice chart based on obser- vations made by the U.S. Revenue Cutter SENECA during the ice seasons 1913 and 1914. Vice Admiral Kent H. Williams was Commander, Atlantic Area until May, 1997, when he was relieved by Vice Admiral Roger T Rufe, Jr. CDR Ross L. Tuxhorn was Commander, International Ice Patrol until July, 1997, when he was relieved by Commander Stephen L. Sielbeck. Summary of Operations^ 1997 The 1997 IIP year (October 1 , 1996 - Sep- tember 30, 1997) marked the 83nd anniversary of the International Ice Patrol, which was estab- lished February 7, 1914. MP's operating area is enclosed by lines along 40°N, 52°N, 39°W and 57°W (Figure 1). MP's first preseason aerial ICERECDET of the year departed on January 26. The 1997 IIP season was opened on March 03 and from this date until July 31, 1997 an ICERECDET oper- ated from Newfoundland approximately every other week. The season officially closed on Au- gust 14, 1997. HP's Operations Center in Groton, Con- necticut analyzed the iceberg sighting informa- tion from the ICERECDETs, ships, Canadian Ice Services (CIS) sea ice/iceberg reconnaissance flights, and other sources. Air reconnaissance, consisting of Coast Guard (IIP), Other Air Recon, and CIS was the major source of iceberg sighting reports this season, accounting for 61.8% of the icebergs sighted in 1997 (Table 1). Ships pro- vided 27.3% of the iceberg sightings received by IIP in 1997. Their continued active participation indicates the value that they place on MP's ser- vice. In 1997, 285 ships of 45 different nations provided ice information to IIP. This demonstrates that the number of nations using IIP services far exceeds the 17 member nations underwriting IIP under SOLAS 1974. Appendix B lists the ships that provided iceberg sighting reports, including reports of stationary radar targets. In Appendix B, a single report may contain multiple targets. The largest contributor of air reconnais- sance reports was Provincial Airlines Limited (PAL). Their reports accounted for nearly all of the category "Other Air Recon" on Table 1 . PAL is a private company that provides aerial recon- naissance services for the Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) year round, and for CIS June through December. DFO flights, which are designated to monitor the activities of fishing vessels, frequently carry them to areas with Table 1 Sources of All Sightings Entered into HP's Drift Model Table 2 Initial Sighting Sources of Limit- Setting Icebergs Sighting Source Coast Guard (IIP) Other Air Recon Canadian AES BAPS Ships Percent of Total 19.0 35.2 7.6 10.9 27.3 x: Percent Sighting Source of Total Coast Guard (IIP) 41 Other Air Recon 21 Canadian AES 2 BAPS 6 Ships 18 National Ice Cente 9 Other 3 x: 57 55 53 51 49 47 45 57 56 55 54 53 52 51 50 49 48 47 46 45 44 43 42 41 39 Figure 1 International Ice Patrol's Operation Area showing bathymetry of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland high iceberg concentrations. The next largest con- tribution to the air reconnaissance total was from IIP ICERECDETs. IIP flights concentrate on de- fining the boundaries of the iceberg distribution. These are typically areas of low iceberg concen- tration. Table 2 shows the important contribution of IIP reconnaissance in determining the limits of all known ice (LAKI). The attributes of the indi- vidual icebergs that set the LAKI are described in Appendix C. BAPS sightings are icebergs de- tected north of 52°N primarily by CIS reconnais- sance. These are passed to IIP by CIS when icebergs are predicted to have crossed into the Ice Patrol operating area. CIS provided IIP with iceberg information obtained during sea ice re- connaissance flights and a few flights dedicated solely to iceberg reconnaissance. During 1997, the IIP Operations Center received a total of 4829 target sightings within its operations area which were entered into HP's drift model. This is about 20% more than the 3902 target sightings during 1996. The 4829 targets entered into MP's drift model do not represent all of the targets reported to IIP. Sightings of targets outside HP's Area of Responsibility (AOR) were not entered into the model. Most of these were far to the north of HP's AOR, in areas not covered by HP's model. Coastal iceberg sightings were also screened, and only those with the potential to drift into the trans-Atlantic shipping lanes were entered into the IIP model. Table 3 includes icebergs detected south of 48°N plus the number of icebergs which were predicted to have drifted across 48°N for each month of 1997. During the 1997 ice year, an es- Table 3 Number of Icebergs South of 48°N Number of Icebergs South of 48°N during 1997 Month Number OCT 0 NOV 0 DEC 0 JAN 0 FEB 10 MAR 475 APR 162 MAY 238 JUN 80 JUL 43 AUG 3 SEP 0 Total 1011 timated 1011 icebergs drifted south of 48°N; whereas, during 1996, 611 icebergs had drifted south of 48°N. IIP classifies the severity of the ice sea- sons based on the historic iceberg counts of its entire 83 year history. Ice years with fewer than 300 icebergs crossing 48°N are defined as light ice years; those with 300 to 600 crossing 48°N as moderate; and those with more than 600 cross- ing 48°N as extreme. Thus, 1997 was in the "ex- treme" classification, but was an average year for iceberg conditions compared to the SLAR years of 1983-97 where the average is 1093. The 1 997 season was the fifth year that IIP used its iceberg Data Management and Pre- diction System (DMPS). This system, which is nearly identical to the IceBerg Analysis and Pre- diction System (BAPS) used at the Canadian Ice Centre, Ottawa, combines an iceberg drift model with a deterioration model. The drift model uses wind, ocean current, and iceberg size data to pre- dict the movement of all icebergs entered into DMPS. This model uses a new historical current data base (Murphy, Viekman and Channel, 1 996), which is modified weekly using satellite-tracked ocean drifting buoy data, thus taking into account local, short-term, current fluctuations. Murphy and Anderson (1 985) described and evaluated the drift model. The iceberg deterioration model uses daily sea surface temperature and wave height infor- mation from the U.S. Navy Fleet Numerical Me- teorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) to predict the melt of icebergs. Anderson (1983) and Hanson (1987) described the IIP deteriora- tion model in detail. In Ice Season 1998, IIP will use the Ice- berg Data Management and Prediction System (IDMPS). IDMPS will run on a faster UNIX sys- tem which will interface with a Windows NT based Geographical Information System (GIS) in order for IIP to more efficiently process and predict ice- berg drift and deterioration information. The fun- damental aspects of the model will not change. Thirteen satellite-tracked ocean drifting buoys were deployed to provide current data for HP's iceberg drift model during the 1997 season. The buoys are sinnilar in design to the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) and were equipped with surface temperature sensors and a drogue centered at 50 meters. The data were distributed in near real time via the Global Tele- communications System. Drift data from the buoys are presented in the IIP 1997 Drifting Buoy Atlas, which is available upon request. IIP also provided weekly drifting buoy sea surface tem- perature (SST) and drift histories to the Canadian Meteoological and Oceanographic Centre (METOC) in Halifax, Nova Scotia and the U.S. Naval Atlantic Meteorology and Oceanography Center (NLMOC) in Norfolk, Virginia for use in water mass and SST analyses. During the 1997 season, IIP successfully deployed 170 Air-deployable expendable BathyThermographs (AXBTs). which measure temperature with depth and transmit the data back to the aircraft. Temperature data from the AXBTs were sent to the METOC Halifax, NLMOC, and FNMOC for use as inputs into ocean tempera- ture models. The AXBTs are deployed as part of a co- operative program between Canadian Meteoro- logical Centre (CMC)/METOC,which provides the probes, and IIP, which deploys the probes and distributes the data. This cooperation benefits both organizations. The temperature data im- proves the FNMOC products which are used in HP's iceberg deterioration model and are a valu- able source of information for METOC's regional oceanographic analysis. On April 15, 1997, IIP paused to remem- ber the 85th anniversary of the sinking of the RMS TITANIC. During an ice reconnaissance patrol, two wreaths were placed near the site of the sink- ing to commemorate the more than 1500 lives lost. Iceberg Reconnaissance and Communications During the 1997 Ice Patrol year, 112 air- craft sorties were flown in support of IIP. Of these, 54 were transit flights to St. John's, Newfoundland, MP's base of operations and 54 were ice observation flights made to lo- cate the southwestern, southern, and south- eastern limits of icebergs. Four logistics flights were required to support and maintain the patrol aircraft. Tables 4 and 5 show aircraft use for the 1 997 ice year. MP's aerial ice reconnaissance was con- ducted with radar equipped U.S. Coast Guard HC-130H aircraft. The HC-130H aircraft used on Ice Patrol are based at Coast Guard Air Station Elizabeth City, North Carolina. Al- though they were not used in 1997, IIP has used HU-25B aircraft in past years. These aircraft are stationed at Air Station Corpus Christi, Texas and are available for use. How- ever, the areal extent of the iceberg distribu- tion in 1 997 required the use of the long range HC-130H aircraft. Since the Grand Banks region is very oceanographically and meteorologically dy- namic, the visibility is notoriously poor. There- fore, IIP relies heavily on theAN/APS-1 35 Side Looking Airborne Radar (SLAR) and the AN/ APS-137 Forward Looking Airborne Radar (FLAR). SLAR is the primary detection sen- sor while FLAR is the primary identification sensor, providing the ability to distinguish tar- gets as icebergs or vessels. These sensors allow IIP aircraft to use a 30 nautical mile track spacing when searching for icebergs. Details on SLAR are in Robe et al. (1985) while de- tails on FLAR are in Trivers and Murphy (1995). IIP schedules aerial iceberg surveys ev- ery other week rather than every week. This Table 4 Aircraft Usage During the 1997 Ice Year Sorties Transit 54 Patrol 54 Research 0 Fliaht Hours Loaistics 4 Total 112 Transit 141.8 Patrol 319.9 Research 0 Logistics 19.6 Tptal 481.3 J V ■ ■■ \ Table 5 Iceberg Reconnaissance Sorties Month Sorties Flight Hours JAN 1 FEB 1 MAR 10 APR 12 MAY 11 JUN 10 JUL 9 TOTAL 54 3.6 7.0 61.1 64.8 70.6 52.5 60.3 319.9 is due to the ability of the SLAR and FLAR to detect and differentiate icebergs in all weather, combined with use of the iceberg drift and deterioration computer model to track icebergs in-between sightings. Both the number of flight hours and sor- ties were greater in 1997 than in 1996. The total number of flight hours increased from 449.1 hours in 1996 to 483.1 in 1997. The number of sorties increased from 1 03 in 1 996 to 112 in 1997. These increases reflect the greater extent of the geographic limits of the icebergs to the east of Flemish Cap and the Grand Banks during 1997. Each day during the ice season IIP pre- pared and distributed ice bulletins at OOOOZ and 1 200Z to warn mariners of the southwest- ern, southern, and southeastern limits of ice- bergs. U. S. Coast Guard Communications Station Boston, Massachusetts, NMF/NIK, and Canadian Coast Guard Radio Station St. John's NewfoundlandA/ON were the primary radio stations responsible for the dissemina- tion of the Ice bulletins. In addition, the ice bulletins and safety broadcasts were deliv- ered over the INMARSAT-C SafetyNet via the AOR-W satellite. Other transmitting stations for the bulletins included METOC Halifax, Nova Scotia/CFH, Canadian Coast Guard Radio Station SydneyA/CO, and Radio Sta- tion Bracknel, UK/GFE. IIP also prepared a daily facsimile chart, depicting the limits of all known ice, for broad- cast at 1600Z and 1810Z daily. In addition, the facsimile chart was placed on Comsat Corp's INMARSAT-A FAXMAIL Server for re- ceipt at sea. U. S. Coast Guard Communica- tions Area Master Station Atlantic/NMN as- sisted with the transmission of these charts. Canadian Coast Guard Radio Station St. John's NewfoundlandA/ON and U. S. Coast Guard Communications Area Master Station Atlantic/NMN also provided special broad- casts as required. As in previous years. International Ice Patrol requested that all ships transiting the area of the Grand Banks report ice sightings, weather, and sea surface temperatures via Canadian Coast Guard Radio Station St. John's/VON, U. S. Coast Guard Communica- tions Area Master Station Atlantic/NMN, or INMARSAT-C or -A using code 42. Response to this request is shown in Table 6. Appendix B lists all contributors. IIP received relayed information from the following sources during the 1997 Ice year: Canadian Coast Guard Marine Radio Station St. John's/VON; Cana- dian Coast Guard Vessel Traffic Centre/Ice Operations St. John's; Ice Centre Ottawa; Canadian Coast Guard Marine Communica- tion and Traffic Services Halifax, Nova Scotia/ VCS; ECAREG Halifax, Nova Scotia; U. S. Coast Guard Communications Master Station Atlantic, Chesapeake, Virginia; U. S. Coast Guard Atlantic Area Command Center; and U. S. Coast Guard Automated Merchant 10 Table 6 Iceberg and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Reports Number of ships furnishing SST reports Number of SST reports received Number of ships furnishing ice reports Number of ice reports received First Ice Bulletin Last Ice Bulletin Length of Season (days) 72 483 285 864 031200ZMAR97 141200ZAUG97 165 In addition, Ice Patrol receives land based lighthouse reports from stations along the coast of Newfoundland. The lighthouses pro- viding these reports are listed in Table 7. Vessel Emergency Response/Operations Systems Center, Martinsburg, WV. Com- mander, International Ice Patrol extends a sin- cere thank you to all stations and ships which contributed reports. The vessel providing the most reports was the HMCS Montreal, a Ca- nadian Forces vessel. Table 7 Newfoundland Lighthouse Iceberg Reports Bacalhao Lighthouse Baccalieu Island Lighthouse Bell Island Lighthouse Belle Isle N.E. Lighthouse Belle Isle S.W. Lighthouse Camp Island Lighthouse Gull Island Lighthouse Kelly's Island Lighthouse Surgeon's Cove Lighthouse Twillingate Lighthouse V Total 14 19 38 28 39 1 8 2 11 26 186 11 12 Discussion of 1997 Ice Conditions Background This section presents a brief discussion of the sea ice and iceberg distribution prior to and during the 1 997 season. While IIP nnoni- tors many environmental conditions near the Grand Banks, by far the two most important to iceberg population are the flow of the off- shore branch of the Labrador Current and the distribution of sea ice. The offshore branch of the Labrador Cur- rent is the main mechanism transporting ice- bergs south to the Grand Banks and the North Atlantic shipping lanes (Figure 2). Its rela- tively cold water keeps the deterioration of ice- bergs to a minimum. Ice Patrol uses satellite tracked drifters to monitor the variability in the Labrador current. The tracks of the 13 drift- ers used in 1997 are described in the Drifting Buoy Atlas which is available upon request. Sea ice protects the icebergs from wave action, the major agent in iceberg deteriora- tion. If sea ice extends to the south and over the Grand Banks of Newfoundland, the ice- bergs will be protected longer as they drift south. When the sea ice edge retreats in the spring, large numbers of icebergs may be left behind in the vicinity of the Grand Banks. If the time of retreat of the sea ice edge is de- layed by below-normal air and sea surface temperatures, the icebergs will be protected from melt longer and be expected to survive to drift farther south. In these cases, a longer than normal ice season can be expected. Less southerly sea ice extent or above nor- mal air and sea surface temperatures may result in a shorter season. Sea ice can impede the transport of ice- bergs. The degree depends on the concen- tration of the sea ice and the size of the ice- bergs. The greater the sea ice concentration, the greater the effect on iceberg drift. The larger the iceberg, the less sea ice affects its drift. The 1997 Season Figures 3 to 1 0 compare the sea ice edge during the 1997 ice year to the mean sea ice edge. The mean sea ice edges were taken from Cote (1989) and represent a 25 year average (1962-1987). The ice edge (sea ice concentration > 1/10) is taken from the daily Ice Analysis from the Ice Centre, Ottawa. Figures 11 to 21 show the Ice Patrol Lim- its of All Known Ice (LAKI) and the daily sea ice edge on the 1 5th and the last day of each month during the ice season. The ice edge is taken from the Ice Centre, Ottawa FICN2 daily product. The edge plotted is a coarse numeric representation of the daily Ice Analysis. These figures show the distribution of all icebergs and radar contacts tracked by MP's model at the indicated times. Numerals are given for clarity for those one-degree squares where six or more targets were located. The following is a discussion of the ice conditions, comparing those ice conditions observed and modeled in 1997 with the twenty-year IIP climatological LAKI described by Viekman and Baumer (1995). December through February Through December and January, sea ice growth along the Labrador coast and in East Newfoundland waters appeared to be slower 13 than normal (Figures 3-4). February and March showed a reversal in the preceding month's sea ice growth pattern (Figures 5-6). The sea ice extent exceeded normal condi- tions during this period and reached as far south as 46°N in the vicinity of the Grand Banks. At the end of February, 10 icebergs were south of 48°N. The reported LAKI (Fig- ure 11) approximated the climatological me- dian position for 15 f^/larch, thus triggering the start of the Ice Patrol Season on 3 March. May Sea ice melting occured at a normal rate. However, remnants persisted along the coast of Newfoundland (Figure 8). The reported LAKI on 31 May (Figure 16) reached the 25th percentile to the east and the median clima- tological LAKI to the south. There were 238 icebergs south of 48°N in May. June March Throughout the month of March, a tongue of sea ice extended eastward to approximately 46°N, 47°W (similar to sea ice conditions of 1995), implying significant surface circulation towards the east (Figure 6). As seen with these conditions in the past, the reported LAKI positions for March (Figures 11-12) extended to an extreme eastward longitude of 39°W. There were 475 icebergs south of 48°N and the southern extent of the LAKI at the end of March was 42°N. April For the first half of the month, the east- ern sea ice tongue receded, but remained ex- tended to 49°N, 49°W (Figure 7). Later in the month, the sea ice rapidly melted and the edge receded toward the Labrador-Newfoundland coastlines. MP's LAKI was reported near the 25th percentile climatological LAKI for the month of April (Figures 13-14). There were 162 icebergs south of 48°N in April. The sea ice edge retreated above 52°N (Figures 9-10). The IIP LAKI (Figures 17-18) approximated the median climatological LAKI in the east and fell between the 75th percen- tile and the median to the south. There were 80 icebergs south of 48''N in June. July The reported LAKI (Figure 19) approxi- mated the median climatological LAKI to the east reaching 44°W. To the south, the LAKI reached an extreme position of 41°30'N on 15 July. By 30 July, the LAKI had retreated to the median around 46°N. There were 43 ice- bergs south of 48°N in July (Figure 20). August The LAKI had retreated to 48°N by mid- August (Figure 21 ) while there were 3 icebergs south of 48°N. The Ice Patrol Season closed on 14 August. 14 References Anderson, I., Iceberg Deterioration Model, Report of the International Ice Patrol in the North Atlan- tic, 1983 Season, CG-188-38, U.S. Coast Guard, Washington D.C., 1983. Cote, P.W., Atmospheric Environment Service (AES), Ice Limits Eastern Canadian Seaboard, 1989, Ottawa, Ontario, KIA 0H3. Hanson, W.E., Operational Forecasting Concerns Regarding Iceberg Deterioration, Report of the International Ice Patrol in the North Atlantic, 1987 Season, CG-188-42, U.S. Coast Guard, Wash- ington, D.C., 1987. Murphy, D.L., B.E. Viekman, and C.L. Channel, New Gridded Currents for the International Ice Patrol Operations Area, Proc. Oceans 96 MTS/IEEE, pp. 613-618. Murphy, D.L. and I. Anderson, Evaluation of the International Ice Patrol Drift Model, Report of the International Ice Patrol in the North Atlantic, 1985 Season, CG- 188-40, U.S. Coast Guard, Wash- ington, D.C., 1985. Robe, R.Q., N.C. Edwards, Jr., D.L. Murphy, N. Thayer, G.L. Hover, and M.E. Kop, Evaluation of Surface Craft and Ice Target Detection Performance by the AN/APS- 135 Side-Looking Airborne Radar (SLAR), Report No. CG-D-2-86, USCG Research and Development Center, Groton, CT, 1985. Trivers, G.A. and D.L. Murphy, 1993 Forward Looking Airborne Radar (FLAR) Evaluation, IIP Technical Report 95-01, USCG International Ice Patrol, Groton, CT, 1995. Viekman, B.E., and K.D. Baumer, IIP Iceberg Limits Climatology, Report of the International Ice Patrol in the North Atlantic, 1995 Season, CG-188-50, U.S. Coast Guard, Washington, D.C., 1996. 15 57 56 ^^ 54 53 52 51 ^^ ^^ ^^ ^^ ^^ 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 Figure 2 The Labrador Current, the main mechanism for transporting icebergs South to the Grand Banks 16 Sea Ice Conditions JANUARY 15, 1997 1/10 or greater sea ice concentration (Redrawn from Ice Center Ottawa, 1 995 ) 1962 -87 mean sea ice edge (Redrawn from Ice Center Ottawa, 1 989) Figure 4 50' 17 55' 50' 45' 55" 45' Sea Ice Conditions MARCH 19, 1997 1/10 or greater sea ice concentration (Redrawn from Ice Center Ottawa, 1 995 ) 1962 -87 mean sea ice edge (Redrawn from Ice Center Ottawa, 1989) Figure 6 50' 18 55' 50' 45' Sea Ice Conditions MAY 16, 1997 1/10 or greater sea ice concentration (Redrawn from Ice Center Ottawa. 1997) 1962 - 87 mean sea ice edge (Redrawn from Ice Center Ottawa. 1989) Figure 8 60' .^§_ .^0_ 19 55' Sea Ice Conditions JUNE 15, 1997 1/10 or greater sea ice concentration (Redrawn trom Ice Center Ottawa, 1997) 1 962 - 87 mean sea ice edge (Redrawn from Ice Center Ottawa. 1989) 50' 45' 20 Figure 11 International Ice Patrol Plot for 0000 GMT 15 Mar 97 Showing Observed and Modeled Iceberg Positions and Sea Ice Edge '' 55 54 53 52 51 50 49 48 47 46 45 44 43 42 41 40 ^ Iceberg X Radar Target 39 Limit of All Known Ice Sea Ice Edge 200 Meter Bathymetric Curve N Number of Icebergs/Radar Targets Per One Degree Rectangle (for squares with 6 or more total iceberg/radar targets) 21 Figure 12 International Ice Patrol Plot for 0000 GMT 31 Mar 97 Showing Observed and Modeled Iceberg Positions and Sea Ice Edge 57 52 51 ^^ 53 51 49 47 45 43 41 39 57 56 CC r,. 55 54 53 52 5^ 44 43 42 41 40 50 49 48 47 46 45 Limit of All Known Ice Sea Ice Edge 200 Meter Bathymetric Curve N Number of Icebergs/Radar Targets A Iceberg X Radar Target Per One Degree Rectangle (for squares with 6 or more total iceberg/radar targets) 22 Figure 13 International Ice Patrol Plot for 0000 GMT 15 Apr 97 Showing Observed and Modeled Iceberg Positions and Sea Ice Edge 57 ^^ ^5 54 53 52 51 50 49 48 47 46 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 X N Iceberg Radar Target Number of Icebergs/Radar Targets Per One Degree Rectangle (for squares with 6 or more total iceberg/radar targets) Limit of All Known Ice Sea Ice Edge 200 Meter Bathymetric Curve 23 Figure 14 International Ice Patrol Plot for 0000 GMT 30 Apr 97 Showing Observed and Modeled Iceberg Positions and Sea Ice Edge 57 55 53 51 49 47 45 43 Newfoundland 40 38 57 56 i K N 8 ▲ A ▲ A 1 5' --15 23 6 k. J 13 34\ 23 A 6 >^ A4 A A ■:', 729^ 12 7 9 8 13, < — ^ ' j X — '-* i 7 V'A^ X ▲ k ^ M k A .-H ^L / / A ▲ A y / -. 41 39 38 55 54 53 52 51 5Q ^g ^g ^^ ^g 45 44 43 42 41 A Iceberg X Radar Target N Number of Icebergs/Radar Targets Per One Degree Rectangle (tor squares with 6 or more total iceberg/radar targets) Limit of All Known Ice Sea Ice Edge 200 Meter Bathymetric Curve 24 Figure 15 International Ice Patrol Plot for 0000 GMT 15 May 97 Showing Observed and Modeled Iceberg Positions and Sea Ice Edge 57 52 51 55 53 15] .39 [ f . Newfoundland 22 39 38 57 56 51 49 47 45 43 6 > \ 9 iA s \ A ▲ S \ r4 15 38 16 >" A N 9 13 10 7 6 A V ( 7 ^ ^ ▲ 12 'A 4^ M4I ^ A A 1 ^ kV ^A .-r i ▲ A v / /^ ■A A ▲ / X \ / 41 39 39 ^5 54 53 52 51 50 49 48 47 46 45 44 43 42 41 40 A Iceberg X Radar Target N Number of Icebergs/Radar Targets Per One Degree Rectangle (for squares witfi 6 or more total iceberg/radar targets) Limit of All Known Ice Sea Ice Edge 200 Meter Bathymetric Curve 25 Figure 16 International Ice Patrol Plot for 0000 GMT 31 May 97 Showing Observed and Modeled Iceberg Positions and Sea Ice Edge 57 55 53 51 49 47 45 Newfoundland 7 — * — s ^--M A H 1 A Sa 7 a K L53I ^r -A X 8 ^. ' A Ai OW A O 7 11 A X — X A J ■^-I ^ -A ^l ^ A ' A i ^ A A r si -V- A . '' 1— ^ i ^ / pn; A s / / ( 1 41 40 39 38 " ^^ 55 54 53 52 51 50 49 48 47 46 45 44 43 42 41 40 A Iceberg X Radar Target Limit of All Known Ice Sea Ice Edge 200 Meter Bathymetric Curve N Number of Icebergs/Radar Targets Per One Degree Rectangle (for squares with 6 or more total Iceberg/radar targets) 26 Figure 17 International Ice Patrol Plot for 0000 GMT 15 Jun 97 Showing Observed and Modeled Iceberg Positions and Sea Ice Edge 49 47 45 41 Newfoundland 42 39 57 56 A \ ▲ \ V A A \ -1- A ' 6 A > . A A A A A \A \ A / i X J y^ ^^ /~""~ 42 39 55 54 53 52 51 ^^ ^^ ^^ ^^ ^^ ^^ 44 43 42 41 40 ^ Iceberg X Radar Target N Number of Icebergs/Radar Targets Per One Degree Rectangle (for squares witfi 6 or more total iceberg/radar targets) Limit of All Known Ice Sea Ice Edge 200 Meter Bathymetric Curve 27 Figure 18 International Ice Patrol Plot for 0000 GMT 30 Jun 97 Showing Observed and Modeled Iceberg Positions and Sea Ice Edge 57 ^^ 53 51 49 47 45 43 41 39 Newfoundland !w5 4^ \ \ A s \ T ^ A H W7- A, 4 'v / A ^ / ^,0 , A C ) X A'. i / ^ A i A A i 7 ' X ) 1 A / / *A ^A > / ^ J 5?— _ ^"^ 56 55 54 42 41 40 '^^ 53 52 51 50 49 48 47 46 45 44 43 4^ A Iceberg X Radar Target N Number of Icebergs/Radar Targets Per One Degree Rectangle (for squares with 6 or more total Iceberg/radar targets) Limit of All Known Ice — Sea Ice Edge 200 Meter Bathymetric Curve 28 Figure 19 International Ice Patrol Plot for 0000 GMT 15 Jul 97 Showing Observed and Modeled Iceberg Positions and Sea Ice Edge 56 55 54 53 52 5I 50 49 48 47 46 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 A Iceberg X Radar Target N Number of Icebergs/Radar Targets Per One Degree Rectangle (for squares with 6 or more total iceberg/radar targets) Limit of All Known Ice Sea Ice Edge 200 Meter Bathymetric Curve 29 Figure 20 International Ice Patrol Plot for 0000 GMT 31 Jul 97 Showing Observed and Modeled Iceberg Positions and Sea Ice Edge 57 55 52 r '^ T- 51 [^ 7 / y/'*' jA 50 j^ ^/ 28 k 49 / /^ K / Newfoundland 48 / 47 IJ' C^ m 46 / L I % 45 /---JL _r T ^^ r— f-— F" i_ 43 iL-J_^ n 42 LJLJ. J 41 L-Al [T 40 LJ_/ T 39 LJ_/ T j 38 / / / 1 53 51 49 47 45 43 41 r A A ▲ \ 8 \ ) k ' i4 \ ▲ J A ^ -- ^ 39 57 56 (-(- ' ' 1 1 1 ' ' 54 53 52 5^ ^^ ^g ^^ ^^ ^^ ^^ ^^ ^3 ^^ 41 40 39 A Iceberg X Radar Target N Number of Icebergs/Radar Targets Per One Degree Rectangle (for squares with 6 or more total iceberg/radar targets) Limit of All Known Ice Sea Ice Edge 200 Meter Bathymetric Curve 30 Figure 21 International Ice Patrol Plot for 0000 GMT 15 Aug 97 Showing Observed and Modeled Iceberg Positions and Sea Ice Edge 57 52 51 55 53 Newfoundland 42 41 40 39 38 ^^ 51 49 Al 45 43 III A' k 1 4 1 r > / '^ST LTl -_ _ 41 39 42 39 56 55 54 53 52 5^ ^^ ^^ ^^ ^^ ^^ ^^ 44 43 42 41 40 39 A Iceberg X Radar Target N Number of Icebergs/Radar Targets Per One Degree Rectangle (for squares with 6 or more total iceberg/radar targets) Limit of All Known Ice Sea Ice Edge 200 Meter Bathymetric Curve 31 Acknowledgments Commander, International Ice Patrol acknowledges the assistance and information provided by: Canadian Ice Service Canadian Coast Guard Navy / NOAA / USCG National Ice Center U.S. Naval Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center U.S. Naval Atlantic Meteorology and Oceanography Center U.S. Coast Guard Research and Development Center U.S. Coast Guard Atlantic Area Staff U.S. Coast Guard Atlantic Area Command Center U.S. Coast Guard Atlantic Area Master Communications Center We extend our sincere appreciation to the staffs of these organizations for their excellent support during the 1997 International Ice Patrol season: Canadian Coast Guard Radio Station St. John's, NewfoundlandA/ON Ice Operations St. John's, Newfoundland Air Traffic Control Gander, Newfoundland Canadian Forces Gander and St. John's, Newfoundland St. John's Flight Services Office U.S. Coast Guard Air Station Elizabeth City, North Carolina National Weather Service, Maryland It is also important to recognize the outstanding efforts of the personnel at the International Ice Patrol: CDR R. L. Tuxhorn MST1 D. L. Alexander CDR S. L. Sielbeck MST1 R. A. McKnight LCDR M. R. Hicks MST1 L. L. Valliere Dr. D. L. Murphy MST2 E. M. Fusco Mr. G. F Wright MST2 L. S. Howell LT R. T. Haines MST2 T. T. Krein LT T. P Wojahn MST2 H. R. Harbuck LT J. E. Andrews MST2 J. C. Luzader MSTC J. A. Fisher MST3 P J. Jenicek YN1 S. J. Hoss This report was produced using Adobe Illustrator™ V4 and Adobe™ Pagemaker™ V5 for Windows® by LT Thomas P. Wojahn. 32 Appendix A Nations Currently Supporting International Ice Patrol BELGIUM NORWAY CANADA PANAMA DENMARK POLAND FINLAND SPAIN FRANCE SWEDEN GREECE UNITED KINGDOM ITALY UNITED STATES JAPAN GERMANY NETHERLANDS 33 Ship Name Appendix B Ship Reports Ship Flaq Ice Report 2 SST* Report ABITIBI CLAIBORNE GERMANY ABITIBI JOHN CABOT NORWAY 1 ABITIBI MACADO LIBERIA 3 ACADIENNE GALE ADMIRAL PADORIN CANADA RUSSIA AKMI GREECE 3 3 AL WAALIYU PANAMA ALEXIA CYPRUS ALFRED NEEDLER CANADA ALIDA GORTHON SWEDEN ALLEGRA PANAMA 1 ALOUEI IE ARROW NORWAY 5 ALPHA LIBERIA ALTONA ANTIGUA/BARBUDA ANNA DESGAGNES BARBADOS APPLEBY BAHAMAS 4 ARCTIC SUN CANADA ARMELLE ST VINCENT 5 5 ASTRID UNITED KINGDOM ATLANTIC CEDAR CANADA ATLANTIC DAUPHIN CANADA ATLANTIC ENTERPRISE CANADA ATLANTIC ERIE CANADA 2 AURIGA ITALY 15 17 AVALON VOYAGER CANADA BACESTI LIBERIA 1 BALSA BALTIC BULKER NORWAY PANAMA 2 BATALIONY CHLOPSKIE BELANJA POLAND NORWAY 2 2 BERGA FALCON BERGE NORD BERGEN SEA PANAMA NORWAY NORWAY 16 12 BERTHEA BLOEMGRACHT BLUE BAY BLUE FLYER NORWAY NETHERLANDS PANAMA CANADA * Sea Surface Temperature 34 Ship Name Ship Flag Ice Report SST* Report BOW SUN BRITISH STEEL BULK TAURUS CAMILLA CANMAR CONQUEST CANMAR COURAGE CANMAR ENDEAVOR CANMAR IKALUK CANMAR SPIRIT CANMAR SUCCESS CANMAR SUPPLIER 11 CANMAR TRIUMPH CANMAR VICTORY CAPE ROGER CARBUNESTI CAST BEAR CAST LYNX CAST WOLF CHANDA CICERO CONBERRI/ CONCORD CONCORDE CONSENSU CONTINENT CORNER BF CVIJETA ZU CYCLADES DAGEID DARYA MA DAVIDAGM/ DEVOLAN DIAMOND STAR DOBRUSH DOCELAKE DUESSELDORF EXPRESS DUKEOFTOPSAIL ,^ , EARL GREY EDAMGRACHT EEKLO EL KEF NORWAY CAYMAN ISLANDS PHILIPPINES FINLAND UNITED KINGDOM BERMUDA BERMUDA CANADA HONG KONG BERMUDA CANADA UNITED KINGDOM UNITED KINGDOM CANADA 5 LIBERIA 3 MAURITIUS 6 MAURITIUS 6 SINGAPORE 3 LIBERIA 9 CANADA 1 NORWAY , 1 LIBERIA 1 ST VINCENT 5 NORWAY 1 UNKNOWN 1 SWEDEN 1 CROATIA 4 MALTA 1 BAHAMAS 2 HONG KONG 2 MALTA 2 LIBERIA 1 CANADA 4 UKRAINE 1 LIBERIA 1 SINGAPORE 1 UNITED KINGDOM 1 CANADA 2 NETHERLANDS 1 LUXEMBORG 3 TUNISIA 1 CAST LYNX MAURITIUS 6 CAST WOLF SINGAPORE LIBERIA 3 CHANDA 9 9 CICERO CANADA 1 CONBERRIA.*.:.,««^.:;,.V.....M.,«::.^ NORWAY , 1 CONCORD LIBERIA 1 CONCORDE ST VINCENT 5 1 CONSENSUS MANITOU NORWAY 1 CONTINENT ^^ ' * UNKNOWN 1 CORNER BROOK SWEDEN 1 1 CVIJhIAZUZORIC CROATIA 4 1 1 CYCLADES MALTA DAGEID BAHAMAS 2 DARYA MA HONG KONG 2 DAVIDAGMASHENEBELI MALTA 2 2 DEVOLAN LIBERIA 1 * Sea Surface lemperature 35 Ship Name ELAN VITAL ^ , , ,. Ship Flag CYPRUS Ice Report 8 SST* Report 8 ELIKON ELLISPONTOS BAHAMAS CYPRUS CANADA 3 3 EMERALD STAR 2 1 EMILIE K DENMARK 1 EVER ROUND FEDERAL AGNO PANAMA PHILIPPINES 5 1 2 FEDERAL CALLIOPE FEDERAL MACKENZIE GREECE HONG KONG 1 1 FEZZANO ITALY BAHAMAS 5 5 FINCH ARROW - 1 ^v FINNFIGHTER BAHAMAS 1 FLINTERDAM NETHERLANDS 1 FLORENTIA MALTA 2 FRIDRIHS GANDERS LATVIA 2 2 FRONT VIEWER SINGAPORE 9 9 GADUSATLANTICA CANADA 2 GENERAL CABOL PHILIPPINES 1 GENERAL PESCADORES PANAMA 6 6 GENIE BAHAMAS 8 4 GERMANIA GERMANY 2 2 GHOST CANADA 1 2 GODAFOSS ANTIGUA/BARBUDA GOLDEN PRINCE PANAMA 3 GOOD FRIDAY BAHAMAS 1 GORTYS GREECE 5 8 1 5 GREAT LAKER GREEN FROST MYANMAR BAHAMAS 11 GREEN ICE BAHAMAS 1 GREEN WATERS CANADA 1 GUR MASTER BAHAMAS 1 3 HANSEATIC BAHAMAS 2 HANSEWELL ANTIGUA/BARBUDA 2 1 1 2 HAVIS HELLESPONT ORPHEUM HMCSANTICONTI NORWAY GREECE CANADA HMCSATHABASKAN CANADA 15 15 HMCS GLACE BAY CANADA 11 11 HMCS MONTREAL CANADA 53 10 16 53 HMCS PROVIDER HMCS ST JOHNS CANADA CANADA 10 16 * Sea Surface Temperature 36 Ship Name Ship Flag Ice Report SST* Report HMCS TERRA NOVA ,„, CANADA 17 11 HOFSJOKULL ICELAND 2 HOGIFOSSUR FAEROES ISLANDS 1 HOPE BAY PANAMA 1 1 HOSEMARTT"^ LATVIA 2 NUMBER ARM SWEDEN 3 NUMPHREY GILBERT CANADA 1 HYDRA BAHAMAS 2 3 HYPHESTOS LIBERIA 1 IJUIDEN MARU PANAMA 3 INDUSTRIAL PATRIOT USA 1 ■ -i] INGRID GORTHON SWEDEN 3 IRVING ARCTIC CANADA 6 IRVING ESKIMO CANADA 1 J.E. BERNIER --'---^-------=-^*- CANADA 1 JACQUES DESGAGNES CANADA 1 JAMNO MARSHALL ISLANDS 1 JEAN CHARCOT PANAMA 10 10 JERRY NEWBURY CANADA 1 JON GORTHON SWEDEN 8 KAN ICELAND 1 KAPITAN E. EGOROV RUSSIA 2 KAPITONASA. LUCKA LITHUANIA 7 8 KAPITONASANDZEJAUSKAS LITHUANIA 1 KAPITONAS MARCINKUS LITHUANIA 1 KAPITONAS SEVCENKO LITHUANIA 5 5 KAPTONAS STULPINAS LITHUANIA 1 KAROO ISLE OF MAN 2 KENT FOREST CYPRUS 5 KENT NAVIGATOR GREECE 1 KENTVOYAGEUR BARBADOS 3 2 KNOCKAN LIBERIA 12 12 KNORR USA 3 KONKAR VICTORY GREECE 4 4 KOPALNIA RYDULTOWY KYDONIA POLAND CYPRUS 1 2 1 LA SAULE 1 CANADA 1 LAKE CHAMPLAIN MARSHALL ISLANDS 1 LAKE CHARLES MARSHALL ISLANDS MARSHALL ISLANDS MARSHALL ISLANDS 1 LAKE ERIE LAKEONIEDA 5 2 * Sea Surface lemperature 37 Ship Name Ship Flag Ice Report SST* Report LAKE SUPERIOR LARINA LEON/ LEONI LEOP/i LISTE LOCUJ LOIRE LONDC LUCK\ LUCKV MAERJ MAERi MAGDI MAJOF MALIK MAPLE MARIA MARIA MARKE mate; MATTh MEDAl MEKH> MELUS MERIK MINAS MISTY MLJET MOKAMI MOR CANADA MOR EUROPE MOR U.K. MORNING DOVE MOUNTAIN BLOSSOM MURPHY'S LAW NARRAGANSATT NATHELIE SEP NOG JOUF NEA DOXA NIRVANA MARSHALL ISLANDS 2 NORWAY 2 .L ISLANDS { IAN C t ANDS VANUATU 2 MALTA 6 CANADA 2 CYPRUS 1 CYPRUS 4 CYPRUS 5 CANADA 2 BAHAMAS 4 UNKNOWN 1 LIBERIA 29 DENMARK 2 NORWAY 1 GREECE 2 CYPRUS 1 LEONARD J. COWLEY CANADA LEON IDAS LAVDA LEOPARDI GREECE MARSHALL ISLANDS' 2 1 LI STEVENS III CANADA LOCUST LIBERIA LOIRE MALTA LONDON SENATOR GERMANY LUCKY LADY MALTA LUCKYMAN CYPRUS 4 4 MAERSK BISCAY ISLE OF MAN MAERSK PACER DENMARK MAGDELIN SEA CANADA 2 MAJOR HUBAL POLAND MALIK 2 VANUATU MAPLE BAHAMAS 4 -. MARIA GORTHON SWEDEN 2 MARIA REBECCA ITALY MARKBORG MATE ZALKA " ' NETHERLANDS CYPRUS MATTHEW CANADA 2 MEDALLION DENMARK MEKHANIK SLAUTA RUSSIA MELUSINE CANADA 4 MERIKE ESTONIA MINAS. TURKEY 1 5 25 * Sea Surface lemperature 38 Ship Name NISSOS CHRISTIANA Ship Flag GREECE Ice Report 12 SST* Report 11 NORD POWER DENMARK 1 NORDIC ICE FAEROES ISLANDS 1 NORSKALD BAHAMAS 1 NORTHERN PRINCESS CANADA 7 NORTHERN TUGGER CANADA 1 NUKAARCTICA DENMARK 1 OAK OBRONCY POCETY #249 BAHAMAS NETHERLAND ANT 2 1 2 OCEAN BILLOW CANADA 1 OCEAN PRAWNS CANADA 2 ODIN GERMANY 6 6 OMISALJ MALTA 1 OOCL BRAVERY HONG KONG 10 OOCL CANADA ■■■'■'■■-^^'-'■-^-^^■'^^^^^^^^^^^ HONG KONG 5 ORDANES BAHAMAS 2 2 OSPREY ARROW BAHAMAS 5 8 PABLO NERUDA LATVIA 1 PACIFIC STANDARD CANADA 2 PAKARTI RAYA INDONESIA 3 PAL MARINOS CYPRUS 1 PETROLAB CANADA 1 PIERRE RADISSON CANADA 7 POITOU BAHAMAS 4 13 POL AMERICA PANAMA 1 1 POM KARIN SWEDEN 1 POMORZE ZACHONDIE POLAND 2 POYARKAVO MALTA 1 1 QUEEN ELIZABETH II UNITED KINGDOM RICHARD MATTHIESON USA 4 4 SAC MALAGA PANAMA 2 SAMUEL ELIOT MORISON USA 40 40 SATURN CROATIA 1 SCAN POLARIS GERMANY 1 SCO I lY&SISTERS SEA CONCERT CANADA CYPRUS 2 1 SEA GYPSY CANADA 1 SEA LABRADOR SEALAND COMET PANAMA MARSHALL ISLANDS 1 1 1 1 SEALAND QUALITY SEDAT ERKOL USA TURKEY Sea Surface lemperature 39 Ship Name SIR HENRY LARSON Ship Flag CANADA Ice Report 7 SST* Report SISHEN SOUTHERN DAWN PANAMA BAHAMAS 2 2 2 2 ST ANTHONY ISLE OF MAN 1 STAR OHIO LIBERIA 27 1 23 STAR TRONDANGER NORWAY STOLTAVENIR LIBERIA 3 4 STOLT HELLULAND LIBERIA 1 STRANGE ATTRACTOR CYPRUS 5 5 STRONG ICELANDER USA 1 STUDLAFOSS ICELAND 1 SWAN CLIFF LIBERIA 2 SZARE SZEREGI POLAND 1 TARONGA TELEOST NORWAY CANADA 1 4 1 TERRY FOX CANADA 4 THORSRIVER CYPRUS 1 . 1 TISTEDAL GERMANY 1 3 TITO TAPIAS CANARY ISLANDS 3 TMM MEXICO MEXICO 1 TREIMANI ESTONIA 1 TRIAS GREECE 1 TURID KNUTSEN NORWAY 1 TURMOIL SINGAPORE 2 UB GEMINI UNITED STELLA CAYMAN ISLANDS LIBERIA 1 10 17 USCGC EAGLE USA 3 3 UTVIKEN BAHAMAS 2 VALGA ESTONIA 2 VERONA VICKY LYNN 1 MALTA CANADA 2 1 VULCAN VULKALLIY MALTA VANUATU 2 1 W. JACKSON CANADA MARSHALL ISLANDS POLAND CANADA 1 WADAG WALKA MLODYCH WELLINGTON KENT 1 3 1 2 WESTERN BRIDGE WESTON WILFRED TEMPLEMAN WORLD VALE BAHAMAS SWEDEN CANADA LIBERIA 1 4 1 2 1 * Sea Surface Temperature 40 Ship Name ZIEMIAGNIEZNIENSKA Ship Flag POLAND Ice Report 1 SST* Report ZIEMIA ZAMOJSKA POLAND 3 2 TOTAL ICE REPORTS TOTAL SST REPORTS TOTAL SHIPS REPORTING 864 483 285 Sea Surface Temperature 41 Appendix C Limit-Setting Iceberg Report for 1997 Season CDR Stephen Slelbeck and MST2 L. Scott Howell Introduction International Ice Patrol's mission is to identify the Limits of All Known Ice (LAKI) and to transmit this information to mariners at sea. During the ice season, the key element of IIP operations is to conduct reconnaissance pa- trols to determine the location of icebergs that establish the LAKI. The LAKI is based on all known iceberg and sea ice information and represents the extent of iceberg danger in the vicinity of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland. From Newfound- land, the line marks the southwestern, south- ern and southeastern limits of the iceberg re- gion, and ends at an intersection point with latitude 52°N. Over the last twenty years, at its extremes, the LAKI has extended in the northwestern Atlantic Ocean as far south as latitude 39°N and in the east to longitude 37°W. Limit setting icebergs are those icebergs that form the vertices of the LAKI. International Ice Patrol in recent years has collected data to learn more about these important icebergs. Analysis of this data has indicated the large relative contribution of sightings from IIP re- connaissance flights in this critical area near the limits. The information pertaining to the limit setting icebergs is important as a measure of effec- tiveness of HP's surveillance efforts in locat- ing the iceberg hazard. It is HP's goal to con- tinuously improve its mission performance by effectively locating the icebergs that consti- tute the LAKI and accurately provide this in- formation to ships to enable them to avoid encountering icebergs. Data Collection Limit setting icebergs were categorized as eastern, southern and western by the side of the LAKI "polygon" where they occurred. For the majority of cases, the three catego- ries of icebergs were distinct populations. The few exceptions were when icebergs drifted from the southern limit to the eastern limit and, in those instances, the iceberg's desig- nation was changed accordingly. Data on the limit setting icebergs were gath- ered daily from the output of the Iceberg Data Management and Prediction System (DMPS). Icebergs were recruited as limit setters either from the 1200Z Ice bulletin list of "icebergs not in area of many bergs" or from iceberg sightings by the various source at or near the LAKI. Each day, the icebergs in the limit set- ter database checked to ascertain any resights or deletions these changes were recorded. The following information was determined for each of the designated limit setting icebergs: 1 . DMPS iceberg number 2. Days on plot in DMPS model. 3. Days as a limit setting iceberg. 4. Source of sighting when entered in limit setter database, and any sub- sequent resighting source. 5. Location on LAKI - (West, South, East) 6. Method of deletion Collection of data on a given limit setting ice- berg ended when it was deleted from DMPS by standard IIP criteria. There are two ways 42 by which IIP removes an Iceberg from DMPS. 1. The iceberg deterioration model predicted the iceberg has melted (Anderson, 1983). 2. The area around the predicted po- sition of the iceberg has been thor- oughly searched either through vi- sual or double radar coverage. Discussion During the 1997 season, 178 icebergs determined the LAKI. Table 1 lists the sources of the limit setting icebergs when they were initially sighted, or first entered into the ice- berg drift model, and when they were last sighted in the area of the LAKI. As in the pre- vious season (Tuxhorn and Krein, 1996), the table shows that IIP reconnaissance was the primary contributor of icebergs that eventu- Table 1 Sources of LAKI Icebergs Sighting Source Initial Report (% of Total) Final Report (% of Total) Coast Guard (IIP) -^'■"■^f------- ........ _.^.........,. Other Air Recon(GPCD) 21 21 Canadian AES (GCfTI) 2 1 Ships 18 22 BAPS , ...6., ^., .....,4...,..,. Other 12 10 { -'■" ■ m wm J ally established the LAKI and the major sight- ing source of the icebergs prior to melting completely and removal from the model. Table 2 shows the initial sighting sources for the three categories of icebergs: western, southern and eastern limit setters. Examina- tion of the numbers reveals that IIP provided the largest number of iceberg reports on all three sides of the LAKI. Ships reported limit setting icebergs along the east, south and west regions. Iceberg reports from Cana- dian AES (GCFR), Other Air Recon (GPCD), Table 2 Initial Iceberg Sighting Sources With Respect to LAKI Region Sighting Source Coast Guard (IIP) Ote Air Recon (GPCD) Canadian AES (GCFR) Ships BAPS National Ice Center (NIC) Other LAKI Icebergs Combined I West South East Count 45 6 0 11 0 3 0 24 24 3 10 13 13 4 77 35 4 29 13 16 4 178 and BAPS and Other Sources were concen- trated along the eastern limits. The size distribution of the limit setting ice- bergs, as reported by the final sighting source, is displayed in Table 3. A third of the sightings were reported as 'general sized icebergs", which is the unspecified size used for most Table 3 Size Distribution of LAKI Icebergs Size Category Growler Small Medium Large Very Large General % of Total 8 ia 25 17 5 33 TI 43 part to indicate icebergs detected by IIP ra- dar surveillance. Again this season, the study showed that HP's melt model is very important as a tool for maintenance of the LAKI. From Table 4, 69% of the limit setters were deleted after reach- ing 150% melt. Non-detection of icebergs during reconnaissance patrols accounted for 31 % of the deletions, of the icebergs that com- prised the LAKI. The reader is directed to the IIP Organization and Procedures Manual Table 4 Deletion Method of LAKI Icebergs bergs which pass south of 52°N latitude or are detected in the IIP operations area melt before they ever approach near the LAKI. This season's study reinforced a finding of the 1 996 study, that approximately half of the limit setting icebergs are detected by IIP reconnais- sance. In 1996, 61% of the limit setting ice- bergs were initially detected by IIP patrol flights conducting reconnaissance patrols near the limits. For the 1997 season, IIP patrols ac- counted for 41% (Table 1) of the Initial sightings of limit setting icebergs. Most of these detections occurred near the LAKI, which means these icebergs either make it through the IIP operations area (from 52°N to LAKI) undetected or are created in the region near the LAKI. If the latter is considered, it suggests that the splitting of icebergs Into "pieces" as they journey south, and especially in the vicinity of the LAKI, is an important pro- cess of their deterioration. Regardless of how they get there, the fact that these icebergs are found a the LAKI gives Impetus for IIP to remain vigilant in this region. (CIIPINST M5400.1) for the policies pertain- ing to deletion of icebergs from the model. The results from this work have yielded a bet- ter understanding of the contributing surveil- lance sources and the final fates of the limit setting icebergs. In the 1997 Season, 4839 icebergs (including reslghts) were entered in the IIP iceberg drift models, of which 1 78 were used to set the LAKI. For comparison, in the 1996 Season, 3902 icebergs were entered in the IIP Iceberg drift model, of which 110 be- came limit setters. Assuming data from these two years are typical, the great majority of ice- 44 References Anderson, I., 1983, "Iceberg Deterioration Model", Report of the International Ice Patrol in the North Atlantic, 1983 Season (CG-1 88-38), pp. 67-73. Tuxhorn, R. L.AndT. T. Krein, 1996, "analysis of Limit Setting Icebergs", report of the Internat- ional Ice patrol in the North Atlantic, 1996 Season (CG-1 88-51), pp. 39-42. 45 Appendix D Analysis of IIP Reconnaissance Results CDR Stephen L Sielbeck and MST2 Tristan T. Krein Introduction International Ice Patrol provides a sea- sonal service of iceberg patrols when the pres- ence of icebergs threatens the North Atlantic shipping routes near the Grand Banks of New- foundland. Information concerning iceberg conditions near the limits of all known ice is collected primarily through air surveillance conducted by IIP. IIP reconnaissance data, iceberg re- ports from other sources, ocean currents and relevant environmental data are used by ice- berg drift and deterioration computer models. Every twelve hours, the numerical models estimate iceberg positions and determine the limit of all known ice (LAKI). This limit is broad- cast as ice bulletins and facsimile charts to ships crossing the Atlantic Ocean between Europe and North America. Data collected from each of the 1997 ice season patrol flights, when used with similar data from the 1995 and 1996 seasons (Table 1), provide a useful gauge of the effectiveness of IIP reconnais- sance efforts and the accuracy of drift and deterioration models. Data Collection Data on iceberg detections, iceberg de- letions, and changes to the LAKI from iceberg patrols in 1997 are shown in Table 2. The iceberg detection numbers (icebergs, growl- ers, and radar targets) were taken from the flight messages reporting results of each ice- berg reconnaissance flight. There were fifty five (55) patrol flights in 1997. The number of icebergs deleted as a result of each patrol was derived from the process of merging the pa- trol information into the iceberg computer da- tabase. Iceberg deletions from the database involve duty watch officer decision making within parameters set down in "Standing Or- ders For IIP Operations Center Duty Person- nel" (CMP Instruction M3120B). Changes to LAKI, calculated in square nautical miles, were determined by simple comparison of the lim- its before and after reconnaissance informa- tion were merged into the model. Discussion The iceberg population in the vicinity of the Grand Banks varies annually with re- spect to numbers, density and distribution. The limits of all known ice are normally de- fined by a small number of icebergs. The av- erage number of iceberg detections per pa- trol in 1997 was 14 and the average number of deletions was 8 icebergs. The variation in iceberg sightings from one patrol to the next is a function of the geographic location of the patrol area; patrols near LAKI usually yield small counts while patrols farther north result in higher numbers of detections. Deletions occur when an area is surveyed with accept- able visibility or radar coverage and the patrol does not find any ice near predicted iceberg positions. The change of ocean area enclosed by LAKI resulting from reconnaissance patrols in 1997 is depicted in Figure 1. Increases in area indicate iceberg detections close to or outside LAKI, conversely, decreases result from an absence of icebergs at predicted lo- cations. Of 55 patrols, 22 reduced and 5 in- creased the area defined by LAKI. The re- 46 maining 18 flights neither increased nor de- creased the area enclosed by LAKI. This does not innply that the limits were accurate on those dates because several of those patrols were special purpose flights to deploy drifting buoys or to verify iceberg density at interior locations. A few patrols were incomplete, due to sensor or aircraft problems, and had no inpact on the limits. On two occasions IIP re- connaissance detected ice outside LAKI. The most dynamic regions, and the area most important to shipping, were the southern lim- its of all known ice. Typically, the southern limits had the highest priority for each ice re- connaissance detachment's patrol efforts. IIP strives to maintain accurate LAKI, neither underestimating nor overestimating the threat icebergs pose to mariners. Effective recon- naissance and proficient model performance are expected to produce only nominal changes in LAKI. The 1997 reconnaissance data suggest that the drift and deterioration models are conservative, since, in most cases, the flights reduced the area enclosed by LAKI. On the other hand, there were six occasions in 1997 when ice was observed outside MP's published LAKI. While this is a small error (-2%) when compared to the 330 ice bulle- tins produced by IIP in 1997, it is significant because mariners were unaware of these dangerous icebergs. As a result, we do not wish to make our models less conservative. The data emphasize the importance of regu- lar, effective reconnaissance in maintaining accurate LAKI. Table 1 1995 - 1997 Reconnaissance Patrol Data YEARLY AVERAGES Ice Season 1995 1996 1997 95'-97' Average Icebergs South of 48N 1432 611 1011 1018 Patrol Flights 45 46 55 49 Patrol Results (per flight): Icebergs Detected 38 16 14 23 Growlers Detected 13 2 1 5 Radar Targets 3 1 2 2 Total Targets Detected 54 19 17 30 Targets Deleted 45 11 8 , 21 Change In LAKI (SQNM) -1031 -4648 -5424 -3701 47 Icebergs 1997 IIP Growlers Radar Table 2 LAKI nm^ SEASON FLT DATE IRD Sights Deletes REMARKS 1 2 31-Jan 26-Feb 0 1 0 0 59 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 S LAKI / Pre-Season Log S LAKI 3 2-Mar 1 61 15 1 0 4 4 0 E LAKI / WOCE / Foul Wx 4 4-Mar 1 12 1 -5,000 -12,800 -1,400 E LAKI/ WOCE/Season Start 5 13-Mar 2 1 0 0 S LAKI 6 14-Mar 2 48 3 0 51 0 SE LAKI 7 15-Mar 2 2 55 25 12 0 0 0 67 25 31 0 -5,300 0 E LAKI/ WOCE 8 16-Mar INS Problems 9 10 11 17-Mar 28-Mar 29-Mar 2 3 3 94 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 94 3 2 0 17 1 0 -21,100 -7,800 RadarSat S LAKI SW LAKI 12 i 13 30-Mar 1-Apr 3 3 95 0 3 0 0 1 98 1 25 0 0 0 RadarSat AC Problems \ i4' 2-Apr 3 14 0 0 14 9 -33,800 E LAKI 15 ■: 16 3-Apr 10-Apr 3 4 10 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 1 0 0 Radar Problem s In Transit 1 17 11 -Apr* 4 4 1 6 \ 5 'i'e 3,90b S LAKI / Bergs Outside LAKI " 18 19 12-Apr 15-Apr 4 4 1 53 3 1 6 0 ' 4 54 5 8 -8,700 0 SW LAKI SE LAKI 20 21 22 ie-Apr * 17-Apr 24-Apr 4 4 5 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 19 19 30 0 -3,200 -1,900 WOCE Visual Patrol / WOCE S LAKI ■ 23 24 28-Apr ' 29-Apr 5 5 104 9 0 1 0 1 104 11 d 3 6 b 0 -19;666 WOCE SE LAKI 25 1-May 5 12 0 0 12 S LAKI 26 27 8-May * 9-May 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 14 2 -16,400 0 S LAKI E LAKI 28 10-May 6 9 9 0 18 0 0 S LAKI/ SLAR Inoperable 29 30 12-May* 13-May 6 6 4 1 6 0 2" 0 6 1 12 2 0 -22,100 0 S LAKI SE LAKI 31 i4-May 23-May 24-May 6 7 7 0 3 7 0 0 0 15 3 3 15 6 10 0 WOCE / RadarSat 32 33 0 31 0 0 S LAKI E LAKI 34 26-May 27-May 7 7 13 7 1 0 14 10 3 6 47 0 -13,200 0 SE LAKI 35 0 3 36 28-May 7 3 0 0 3,900 S LAKI / Autopilot Failure 37 8-Jun 9-Jun 10-Jun 8 8 8 4 7 8 0 0 0 12 0 16 7 20 0 7 0 23 -27,300 S LAKI/ WOCE 38 0 S LAKI / Radar Inoperable 39 7 1 1 5 15 3 10 0 0 -31,400 W LAKI / Radar Inoperable 40 41 11-Jun 12-Jun 13-Jun 8 8 8 2 9 8 0 0 0 E LAKI S LAKI 42 13 9 0 0 W LAKI 43 24-Jun 9 7 18 2 27 0 S LAKI / Turbulence 44 25-Jun 26-Jun 30-Jun 9 9 9 8 1 1 5 0 1 6 5 7 19 8 -17,000 -22,300 S LAKI 45 6 9 25 3 1 1 E LAKI 46 0 1 8 9,700 W LAKI 47 48 9-Jul 13-Jul 10 10 14 1 7 1 4 1 21,200 -8,800 S LAKI / 7 Growlers Outside W LAKI 49 16-Jul 10 0 0 0 0 8 18 0 6 2 0 -18,600 0 S LAKI / SLAR Inop /WOCE 50 51 17-Jul 25-Jul 26-Jul 10 11 11 6 8 4 0 10 0 2 0 S LAKI RadarSat 52 0 4 1 29 5 938 17 2 3 2 4 418 8 -31,700 E LAKI 53 27-Jul 28-Jul 30-Jul ^Totals: Averag 11 11 1 27 0 2 0 0 0 2 -8,900 W LAKI 54 0 RadarSat 55 11 3 769 700 S LAKI 1 80 89 2 -298300 es: 14 1 -5424 48 Figure 1 1997 IIP RECDET EFFECTS ON LAKI 30000 20000 10000 E c lU O z < r o 2 -10000 -20000 -30000 -40000 ■ 1 1 ^ ■ ■ 1- CO in "■f- O) - ^ CO in r^ 0> ' 'CO 1- lOjl CM 1 ! in CM CM CM ■■- CO CO CO in CO ?5 2 CO ■«r CO in 1^ CJ) in CO in in in • FUGHT NUMBER References: Tuxhorn, R. L. And T. T. Krein, "Analysis of IIP Reconnaissance results", report of the Interna tional Ice Patrol in the North Atlantic, 1996 Season (CG-1 88-51), pp. 43-47. 49 50