| SMITHSONIAN MISCELLANEOUS COLLECTIONS , VOLUME 153, NUMBER 5 (PusiicaTion 4753) Roebling Fund A LONG-RANGE FORECAST OF TEMPERATURE FOR 19 UNITED STATES CITIES By C. G. ABBOT, D.Sc. RESEARCH ASSISTANT, SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION AND MRS. LENA HILL RESEARCH ASSOCIATE, SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION CITY OF WASHINGTON PUBLISHED BY THE SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION PRESS MAY 31, 1969 OF THE AMERICAN MUSEUM OF NATURAL HISTORY SMITHSONIAN MISCELLANEOUS COLLECTIONS VOLUME 153, NUMBER 5 (PusBLicaTION 4753) Roebling Hund A LONG-RANGE FORECAST OF TEMPERATURE Por 19 UNITED STATES CITIES By C. G. ABBOT, D.Sc. RESEARCH ASSISTANT, SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION AND MRS. LENA HILL RESEARCH ASSOCIATE, SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION CITY OF WASHINGTON PUBLISHED BY THE SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION PRESS MAY 31, 1969 ~ a: Wea: Wy “te We Ns : ie ‘ ? + > re A ons Y | oe a=. ae la ( 7 war ~ ' 4 } ; . j ¥ i bien Ue eaaenee a Perey: th eatin MESUSA, te ae » bs th Pare: . oan es 4 LS i nn, a : oy } Wks an peri i ea wisi i : 7 te Roebling Fund A LONG-RANGE FORECAST OF TEMPERATURE POR NI9-“UNEEFED STATES €Iliks By C. G. ABBOT, D.Sc. Research Associate, Smithsonian Institution and Mrs. LENA HILL Research Assistant INTRODUCTION THE RESEARCH findings set forth in this study are the concluding part of an investigation outlined and ordered by Dr. Samuel Pierpont Langley in 1905. Its objects, and the successful progress made in the ensuing 63 years, are briefly but lucidly summarized in Solar Variation, a Weather Element, a paper prepared by C. G. Abbot at the invitation of President Seitz of the National Academy of Sciences, and published in its Proceedings for December 1966.1 Besides filling volumes 2 to 7 of the Annals of the Astrophysical Observatory of the Smithsonian Institution, explanations and details are contained in the more than 150 papers published by members of the staff of the Astrophysical Observatory during the years 1900 to 1968 in the Smithsonian Miscellaneous Collections. A few are published in other scientific books and periodicals of the United States and foreign countries. A list of the most important of these 150 papers is ap- pended. It is now three generations since Dr. Langley gave his directive 1 Reprints of this article are available from the Publications Distribution Section, Smithsonian Institution Press, Washington, D.C. 20560. See footnote 6 for complete citation. SMITHSONIAN MISCELLANEOUS COLLECTIONS, VOL. 153, NO. 5 2 SMITHSONIAN MISCELLANEOUS COLLECTIONS VOL. 153 of 1905. A summary of the most important results which flowed from it may be surprising to some of this generation. 1. Though Langley deprecated our seeking to determine the exact value of the solar constant of radiation, we had to have the ap- paratus necessary to obtain it in order to fulfill his other objects. Indeed, as early as 1930, we did obtain a very good value of the solar constant. By 1952, as the average of about 9000 daily values observed from several high mountains, we obtained, from results of the years 1923 to 1952, our published value: 1.946 calories per cm* per minute. During the past year (1967-1968) space observers, observing the sun from outside the atmosphere, have twice obtained 1.95 calories, as published by Dr. A. J. Drummond and associates.?, So there is essentially perfect agreement. 2. From 1902 to 1914 the staff of the Astrophysical Observatory (then including Andrew Kramer, instrumentmaker, and Messrs. Fowle, Aldrich, and Abbot, observers) designed and constructed about ten instruments for observing solar radiation. These included: the absolute pyrheliometer, four kinds of secondary pyrheliometers, the pyranometer, the two-mirror coelostat, the perfected vacuum- bolometer, and several devices for the spectro-bolometer, and for reducing solar measurements.* 3. From 1905 to 1920 about six months each year were spent in solar radiation work on Mt. Wilson, measuring the atmospheric transmission, and computing the solar constant, by Langley’s “long method.” H. H. Clayton—making high, medium, and low groups of our results—proved by 1916 the sun’s radiation to be a controlling world weather element. 4. In 1918 a new station was established at Calama, in the nitrate desert of Chile, to observe the sun’s radiation daily throughout the year. Clayton found a close correlation between Mt. Wilson and Calama, though situated in opposite hemispheres. But we needed daily measures from a pair of mountain stations, and a solar con- stant method so quick as to avoid changes of atmospheric transpar- ency. John A. Roebling’s generosity enabled us to occupy Mt. Harqua Hala (5672 feet) in Arizona, and also Mt. Montezuma (9000 feet) near Calama throughout several years beginning in 1920. 5. A. F. Moore at Calama, making daily measures of radiation 2 Eppley Laboratory, Reprint Series No. 33, 1967. 3 See C. G. Abbot, Solar Variation and Weather—A Summary of the Evi- dence, Completely Illustrated and Documented, Smithsonian Miscellaneous Col- lections, volume 146, No. 3 (Publication 4545). NO. 5 TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR IQ U.S. CITIES—-ABBOT 3 from a zone of sky near the sun with the pyranometer, laid the foun- dation for the “short method” of determining the atmospheric spec- tral transparency in 40 wavelengths. The “short method” for the solar constant was perfected in 1923, and applied to measure the solar constant daily for 9000 days at several high mountain stations over a period of 30 years, from 1923 until 1952.4 6. Meanwhile, Dr. George E. Hale, at Mt. Wilson, discovered the cycle of 22 years 9 months in the magnetic fields of sun spots. Our 30-year record of daily solar constant measures plainly revealed a corresponding master cycle of 273 months in solar variation. It has an amplitude of 3 percent and, like music, has many exact sub- ordinate harmonics. We discovered 27 such harmonics in solar variation, all exact fractions of 273 months. We found also non- periodic trends, up and down, for the sun’s radiation. These opposing trends, occurring about twice a month, and with amplitudes of ap- proximately 1 percent, were found to be an important cause of temperature changes. 7. Following Dr. Langley’s prevision, we found all of the 27 regu- lar solar harmonics, and also all of the nonperiodic trends, to be plainly effective in weather. 8. Finally, Langley’s hope for long-range weather predictions also are confirmed. In five publications in the Smithsonian Miscella- neous Collections series* forecasts of precipitation at 55 cities on six continents were tabulated for as much as two generations in advance. In publication 4711, identified below in footnote 5, and in this publication, long-range forecasts are also tabulated for 30 cities in the United States. In Solar Variation, a Weather Element,® Figure 4See C. G. Abbot, Forecasting from Harmonic Periods in Precepitation, Smithsonian Miscellaneous Collections, volume 148, No. 8, 1966 (Publication 4659). 5 See C. G. Abbot, Sixrty-Year Weather Forecast, Smithsonian Miscellaneous Collections, volume 128, No. 3, 1955 (publication 4211). C. G. Abbot, A Long-Range Forecast of United States Precipitation, Smith- sonian Miscellaneous Collections, volume 139, No. 9, 1960 (Publication 4390). C. G. Abbot, Precipitation in Five Continents, Smithsonian Miscellaneous Col- lections, volume 151, No. 5, 1967 (Publication 4694). C. G. Abbot, Supplement to a Long-Range Forecast of United States Pre- cipitation (Smithsonian Publication 4390), Smithsonian Miscellaneous Collec- tions, volume 152, No. 5 (Publication 4711). C. G. Abbot, Solar Magnetism and World Weather, Smithsonian Miscella- neous Collections, volume 152, No. 6, 1967 (Publication 4722). 8C. G. Abbot, Solar Variation, a Weather Element, Proceedings of the Na- tional Academy of Sciences, volume 56, No, 6, pages 1627-1634, December 1966, 4 SMITHSONIAN MISCELLANEOUS COLLECTIONS VOL. 153 2 shows large average effects on the temperature of Washington from rising and falling trends of solar radiation in all months of the year. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR 19 UNITED STATES CITIES The temperatures forecasted here for 19 United States cities were computed by us from electronic tabulations by Jonathan Wexler, and were prepared by him from World Weather Records, 1880 through 1949. Excepting Nashville, Tennessee, all our long-range predictions extend from 1967 to 1972. For Nashville we predicted from June 1942, so that we could show the effect of bombing—both with uranium preparations, and later with hydrogen bombs—from 1944 to 1964. TABLE 1.—Cities Where Temperature its Forecasted Bismarck, North Dakota Galveston, Texas Phoenix, Arizona Charleston, South Carolina Helena, Montana Portland, Oregon Chicago, Illinois Little Rock, Arkansas Sacramento, California Cincinnati, Ohio Marquette, Illinois Sante Fe, New Mexico Denver, Colorado Mobile, Alabama Spokane, Washington Eastport, Maine Nashville, Tennessee Washington, D.C. El Paso, Texas TABLE 2.—Normal Monthly Temperatures, in Fahrenheit, for 19 United States Cities, Means, 1880-1949 A. Sunspots >20. B. Sunspots <20. BISMARCK CHARLESTON CHICAGO CINCINNATI A B A B A B A B January 10.5 8.5 50.9 49.8 2h 25.0 33:82 323 February 10:49 “Li2 5110 512 27:6" “27:6 34.2 35.0 March 23:3. 720.4 565) 95747 35/6) "43/5 42.4 448 April 44.7 428 63.9 64.6 48.0 47.2 54.6 54.4 May 55.9 54.5 T27 ef2t 592 57.8 65.6 63.9 June 65.6 64.0 78.5 78.1 68.8 67.6 74.0 72.8 July LO:Se 7721 80.7. 80.1 74.6) 135 78.3 76.9 August 67.9 68.7 79.9 80.0 7a0) £730 y fpr ae fen September 5/55 58:7 76.7. 76.4 65.7 (66.7 68.7 69.4 October 46.2 443 64.3 67,5 55.4 548 57-80 + 57H. November 29:6. 27.7 58.0 582 42.3 40.6 45.6 44.7 December 16.4 15.6 52.0 50.8 31 lee2Ois 36:6: 35:3 NO. 5 TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR IQ U.S. CITIES—ABBOT January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December DENVER A B 32.1 29.9 31.5” 32.9 37.6 39.4 485 47.8 NS KS 68.3 66.5 7520 hod STFA SITS 62.5 63.2 51.6 51.0 40.9 38.9 32.3 328 HELENA A B Z19 19.5 2a2 ft 25.9 BL woes 41.6 43.5 527° 522 60.4 59.6 68.2 68.5 66.2 67.2 55.4 55.8 45.8 44.6 33.7. 32.4 Zao. 23 SACRAMENTO A B 45.4 45.7 50.1 50.5 55.0 542 58.3 59.0 63.9 63.9 69.2 70.5 738 74.3 72.9 735 70.8 70.0 63.3 63.0 54.1 53.7 46.2 465 EASTPORT A B 212. 21.4 ALG 22-1 29.8 29.6 38.8 37.6 47.4 47.0 54.6 544 59.9 59.5 59.7. 60.1 55.6 o55.0 47.8 47.6 aZ.1? Bia 25.5, 20:0 LittLte Rock A B 43.0 40.6 44.2 447 Cp ae 62.3. 62.2 70.1 69.4 79°° 773 81.0 80.5 80.0 79.6 74.0 74.4 63.3 63.5 52.8 51.6 43.6 43.9 NASHVILLE A B 40.2 38.0 41.1 41.1 47.7 508 58.8 59.2 68.6 67.5 76.4 75.4 79.4 78.3 ree asa © & 72.0 72.4 60.6 61.2 49.7 488 41.3 41.5 Et Paso A B 445 43.8 490 49.4 Giese NERS 63.4 63.5 72.6 718 80.5 80.5 81.3 81.6 80.6 79.3 74.5 74.3 64.6 64.0 52.58 SL7 44.7 45.0 MARQUETTE A B 17.8 168 pV 23.8 26.5 38.4 38.4 50.0 48.1 As aS 65:3" 65.1 63.7 64.0 56.9 57.6 474 46.2 34.1 32.9 23.1 23.0 PHOENIX A B 51.0 508 Bas oS 60.7 60.4 67.3 67.8 76.0 75.6 84.8 846 90.5 90.0 88.7 88.3 83.4 82.5 71.4 70.6 60.1 58.8 52.1 52.3 GALVESTON A B 549 *3a.0 56.9 55.8 60.9 62.2 68.6 68.5 75.1 748 80.5 81.0 82.7 82.9 83.1 80.0 709 #1 yy ae a 64.2 56.5 56.7 MoBILe A B 522; wold 547 »5and 58.6 60.2 66.4 66.5 yf eee & P 79.3 79.4 80.5 80.3 80.3 80.3 04-6 995 68.0 688 58.9 585 oY er ae | PorRTLAND A B 39.7 38.5 41.8 42.2 46.8 46.9 SL = $19 v7.5 Sra 61.8 62.0 66.9 67.2 66.6 67.3 61.7 618 54.7 53.9 464 46.1 41.0 41.7 6 SMITHSONIAN MISCELLANEOUS COLLECTIONS VOL. 153 SANTE FE SPOKANE WASHINGTON, D.C. A B A B A B January 29:14 -28./ 30.1 26.0 35.95 wood February S202 ao 30.4 31.6 35.3m n.0 March 39.0 39.2 39.5 39.8 42.55 44.5 April 47.6 47.5 48.4 48.0 53.8. aun May 56.5, 55.6 56.1 56.0 65.0 64.0 June 66.8 65.3 62.4 62.4 129. “F2A July 68.9 68.6 69.7 70.2 76.9 76.3 August 67.7. 67.2 68.6 68.9 74.6 748 September 612° ~6L5 58.8 59.1 68.7 68.6 October 50.6 50.2 48.9 48.0 573° S75 November 39.2 "39:3 37.6 36.9 46.6 46.7 December 30.2 30.4 30.6 30.5 37.1 87.0 As described in several publications listed in the appendix, all of our long-range forecasts, both precipitation and temperature, are compiled by adding the values obtained to represent the weather effects of 27 regular periods, all exact harmonies of 273 months. Hence the forecasts are not simple monthly values, but complex smoothed monthly values. To compare with them fairly, the observed monthly values must also be smoothed. The following Tables 3 and 4 give the forecasts, the directly observed monthly values, and the monthly observed values smoothed by three-month consecutive smoothing. The differences tabulated in Table 3 are between the monthly forecasts and the three-month smoothed observed tempera- tures. THE EFFECTS OF ATOMIC AND HYDROGEN BOMBS ON FORECASTS AT NASHVILLE Figure 6 in Solar Variation, a Weather Element™ shows graphic- ally how prejudicially the atomic bombing in Japan, and the later hydrogen bombs exploded by the United States and Russia in the Pacific and Arctic Oceans, affected long-range forecasts of precipita- tion at Tokyo and Lagos. Many similar scatter-graphs of long- range precipitation forecasts at stations in distant regions are on file at the Smithsonian. We wish now to show, in another kind of graph, what effect atmospheric bombing explosions appear to have produced on long-range temperature forecasts in central United States. 7 Ibid. NO. 5 TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR IQ U.S. CITIES—ABBOT 7 Figure 1 graphs the march of long-range temperature forecasts at Nashville, Tennessee, from 1942, before atomic bombs were made, through 1965, after the United States and Russia had exploded mighty hydrogen bombs at intervals from 1949 to 1960. s Saeed fos 5 be. 20 etal “6 ce a he eS Se Se tas Sak Aaa eae 4 ERSTE | ae_| TE SAR 2 Peis) 7 es ORAS | OE A ee ra Sree Ss eee, fo is \ rf SA ical a a 2 a Pe ae |e eee ae ae Ee ee ee See ee eee FS ||) mw se s fy we s wy we SN ly Me sly mM ve 5 wy Me SW | EE eT Ss ee ee ed tae alin | Se lili ES IN OE I a a al a | 2 Se eS ee Ss eee Se eee. SS SS ae eee eee ee Pee 1 RT SS FA | AS AE a Pe a cree ce ‘aS ir Sees er eee 2 ee ee Ss MR th SR Lin Ral HA El bt | “ae Me Ly | 7 a as \ + + - a % c* ® Oo so Lf ‘4 LP me ° M Je S NiJ M Jo S RK +40 - A Ree ee Te Ppp N pay lo A Es Coe lee | : SS i Ficure 1.—Nashville temperature departures. VOL. 153 SMITHSONIAN MISCELLANEOUS COLLECTIONS 80— ro v0— a i or ig 07+ oor o'e+ rer a ict Or 6cr Soa 90+ cor Ler Coe = Roce au if ee Le 1S a i oa VNATa supapy Oumuny yyuow-aasy J woal ZZ6T YOnosy [ Z96T JDULAON moaf Saangavgaq aanjosaguaT, fo svIIAOY—F ATAVL, err 07+ 61+ c0- ver 60+ 60+ 00 60+ Or 60— vor ro; 80+ 60+ sor le OI+ 0+ g0+ 1 Oc 60+ Lo co Vic oS Sas NOLSHAIVD | ag 9'0— ic. a jl a Xe vor s0+ 81+ eng y7+ Deer ole tice if Sag £0— eee ZO ol — TA cOT 80+ 01+ Tro—- OT+ tit ELA osvg 1] ee7+ SO+ 6+ Ort 87+ cer cet cor 97+ 0+ EO Tit 0+ 80— aay PI— AS to |S aoa ies = a i oe vis (Si oa To+ 91+ 80+ LYOdLSVY ae Les 6%— eo es ge— ce td ae i ae 8 ia 30— bor c0— Se OI+ a Gi 9¢+ SIt+ e+ vit bit ale co— 60+ S0+ fir UIANAC cer oz7+ cer pag Ve ver Set E+ Fes Cea Eis SOT all Se dan Ost 61+ Orr e@r Gilair Oe+ citar St Ort ver Ser OI+ 60+ ILVNNIONIQ ter st+ 6er GE vet Cet Oe Orr ver Aa da 6e+ oy Lit 1 Age 61+ OI+ a) Sat a i 90> Lo= L0a 60+ vot (1 60— Pick ODVOIHD Ler err srt Set 6c+ eet oe+ O~+ Lor 9'0— ots i as a ae 1 Nae i es oh ae ot> Pi VI vor c0— Co) la A Vo— 5 es i Sa NOLSTIUVHD €0ot+ 01+ 80— com Ls 0 oe age 80+ 60— ko AA ae co oir oh ay Set 61+ Lit cin 6c— te4 rp ae ok ae Ve Cees res ve 5 ae MOUVNSIG Yyoreyy Areniq2 J Azenue [{ 0461 Jaquissaq JOqusA0 Ny 19q019Q Joquis}das ysnsny Aine oun Ae pady yoieyy Azeniqaq Azenue[{ 6961 Jaquias9q JIquIsAO N 13q0}99 Jaquijadasg jsnsny Ane oun f Arey [ady Yoel Aseniqay Ayenue[ 8961 9 ABBOT 5 TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR IQ U.S. CITIES NO. £0+ ber Zeer set ior SI+ Set eer OTT v0 Zot 0+ i! v0— ctr Dis. cit ett s'0+ SI+ 9I+ Ver e+ oe+ s'e+ Spt re+ eer Lit il a O7+ ge LOS 90+ 3 9 ea Gm Lie 60+ ol 61+ 07+ vet 6e+ e+ oz@+ So LES Cea e+ oer S7+ ee 6c+ att vet 97+ Reg Aa sI+ ost 6'S+ s+ 6e+ os+ s+ Der 6e+ SI+ 61+ i To+ 9T+ OI+ ger 61+ e+ Se+ £¢- Rest: bet ver vet oor Te-F tor A ge 90+ LOT 9'0— 90+ Aas ers ler a at Se@+ nek o'e+ Se@+ soe L0+ eur 10+ st Na ob hl ae 1b 'c—- Le i Le = ve Lt— 0e— 2 ia 90+ Zot 60+ ler Per 7 ag 9st cet a eet 09+ 9st 6S+ 6e+ set e+ ctr 80+ So+ OT+ 80— 90+ cor 00 90— 9°0— 0 s0+ LOS e7+ vor vIt+ 90+ cL is: 87+ ve+ 60+ |! | oe vE— i ve A 3 Bae Wa eg | a aa Cv— Ok ara om ee 9°b— Le 6¢— 02— vo— 4 Nae 8'0— Z0— Ser 61+ 5 ag ow L0+ i | a 0c— i oo oer i a ao ee re Fag toa v0— 9'0— 4 os sot £0— 90+ 1ot rot Lot VI+ 8'0— eo— 91+ 91+ Se@+ a Be Se@+ 6 90+ a 80— i — v0— cot Sigg eo+ rr 90+ 0+ 2 oe + om "oe 3 Ss es £e— a er— 02— 01+ SI+ SI+ ee7+ vet vet St 701+ 7+ L£0I+ Z0I+ 98+ ost 6S+ cor szt+ Set Sor 3. em ce— i vo—- Ev es— ks A fe ts Lo Nea ot vit OI+ 80+ 00 cor Zot eo+ Jaquia}dag ysn3ny Aine oun Ae dy YoIeyY Arzeniqa.j Axenue{ eL6r Joquias9(] JdquIsA0N 32qg0}190 Jaquia}das jsnsny Ajnf aun APT [dy qoreyy ArzeniqaJ Arenue [Lol Jaquias9q JaquUIaAON 39q0190 Jaquia}dag ysnsny Ayn oun Avy dy VOL. 153 SMITHSONIAN MISCELLANEOUS COLLECTIONS Io s0+ al ott SI+ 60+ 60+ fs 80+ S0+ 80— Pi LoS 90 90+ £0— a 80—- Lt= am 90— 9'0— 60+ rit £0+ ¢0+ 10+ Ome ‘9 ‘q ‘NOL -ONIHSV\\ oo— eh— a ZO+ 60— vor AT 90+ 90+ vor 00 £0; 60— 60— 90+ So+ 0+ 3 ai 60+ ter Set cOT 6S aor ect cer Ly ANVMOdS ccr 97+ A oa oir 61+ e+ oe+ et gor SI+ vit 90+ i es 90+ 90+ 0+ o— 00 £07; £0= 1d | a Sig 7 ma a lo+ ae | ae aq VINVS e0+ Li a ae 50= Z0+ i i 8 8 hn gis Te oe Ei pH 90+ 60+ Ales Oh 91+ cer err vit 60+ Tir 90+ 1 ia 60+ cr GNVTILYOg e0+ 61+ rot te it oa v0+ 60— TO | 0 oe oe+ 61+ Cir Zt: 61+ SI+ O~+ cor 07+ ay 92+ ee £0— eO+ 60+ elm sT— A, XINGOHG 60+ pag wet ter Er oe+ 4 a Al in g0+ yor So" ee— Les 8 aa el i i on ag eo vor ia 1 ae rc i a i a 20—- ATIIAHSVYN Lars el— a | a £0> Si 50— 8 ta S7- hoa Bea; Ser 9E+ oe 61+ Zrr 60+ 60+ ae Ve— | ae Zot 20— ¢0+ Gs Sor 00 OLNANVUOVS panuyuoI—e ATaV L tt SI+ i tag Ci 9 Ra ctr Per 60+ Lie SOT 30> ot aes Se ae Eis ls 2 oa ot Bae ol Z0— 2 AN ay 0+ ali ae I bat Le Alin aTIGOW e+ Pees Lg 91+ 91+ p+ Cer eer 0+ Zon Sati a a Lo 97+ Scr Ag 00 Sit 80— 90+ ler ver oe~+ OT Zit O1+ | aALLAINOUV L0t eer vit eer E+ cor 6e+ 82+ ter A i be 60+ c0— 80+ tik cir a ag eo la i als fi- cot 00 as ve A MOOY AILLI'T Yoiejy Aren.iq2 J Arenue { OL6T Jaquis.9q] Jaqulsao N J9q019Q, Jaquisydas jsnsny Ayn{ oun Ae [ady yoieyy Arzeniqoyq Azenue [ 6961 Jaquis29(] Jaquiaao0 Ny JaqovO Jaquia}dag jsnsny Ajnf oun f AeW [ady Yyoieyy Aseniqay Azenue[ 896T ET 5 TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR IQ U.S. CITIES—ABBOT NO. eer 6e+ 80+ vit Z0+ 6o— = it Soe a ‘ae ve— 8c— re c= ae ae 6c— em oe 20 i= t= c0+ ver fer 9I+ A do oie vor sI+ vit Ser 99+ vor Lor eo+ Tor [or orc our Ves a ees Ler ver Gis 90+ Cl= 8 oe vo 2 ea Sc— A at Sod Lh ero ey oe fag 6e— ee ve. ae oT a 90— i= 60— el— Bie vo co a fae ot mee G0= Ce te 60— Ls c0— L0+ ol Ler 9¢+ Det it re ten 6¢+ Lot Ter rer ag Ler c0- 90+ bot a gig ver Get Set Set ver cyt 6+ ey oe@+ Gea; ial Mg vor 4 80—- 00 90— Pi v0— Z0+ 20+ vot OT+ i ett To+ £0= Cle a iat | a 6e+ £0+ ag vor Ct aes i co || oh Us LO 90+ ie Aa ro; i Sa oe+ i be Ol tas ra 1) re Ys ver oir cor Chay Wag i ee 6e+ fer an se+ vet per 6+ 9E+ ag Cea 0+ 60+ Tot Lost oe ve— bl lag 0) (ie i eas aa Loe P Se am 1 i a 9'0— bO+ L0+ vor eo+ OI+ Sake ctr O~+ a 9e+ 87+ Has oir 20+ a Bt Fo se— 6 Ailes sy 80—- al ea i ad | le aL! hm a SO+ 8 he 60+ S01 oe+ 90+ 81+ 20+ 80—- Ler 9e+ ier 30— 00 Sor 0+ i a v7+ pA in 9I+ OI+ Site 2k ip her 90+ 60+ re es Ler 60—- 60— iI; yo— Ei a 60— £0—- i ae | ae 1G aa cit hee vor 80+ 60— cc 60— cv— i fee vr— A ae ae v9o— £9— oZ— 6¢— a ce or Leo— Nee 60+ 3 a Lv Pro+r v2 re+ 6e+ 67+ 7+ cet 9e+ cet 9I+ i Aa vet eer 97+ 61+ o~+ 9¢+ vit TIt+ hg itt SOT 90+ +o fare +i aha ho Li 2 ec ae a 3% as rot tae Jequia}dasg ysnasny Ajnf oun AL [dy yosreyy Aseniqga.j Axenuef{ cZ6l Jaquias9q JIqUIDAO NT 3990}90 Jaquia}dag ysn3ny Ajnf aun [ AeW [dy Quen Aren.1ga J Arenuef TLor Jaquia2a(qq JaquiaAoN 33q0}20 Jaquia}das ysnsny Ayn oun ALT [dy 12 SMITHSONIAN MISCELLANEOUS COLLECTIONS VOL. TABLE 4.—Four-month Mean Temperatures, 1965-1972 All based on three-month running mean data 153 BISMARCK CHARLESTON CHICAGO Pre- Ob- Pre- Ob- Pre- Ob- dicted served A dicted served A dicted served A 1965 1965 1965 I —3.3 I —0.4 I —0.6 II +5.7 —42 —9.9 II +3.3 —06 —3.9 II +44 —1.8 —62 III +-2.7 0.0 —2.7 III +27 —20 —47 III +30 —14 —44 1966 1966 1966 I —0.9 +16 +2.5 I +31 —2.1 —5.2 I —32 —0.7 42.5 II —0.6 —3.2 —2.6 II +09 —3.9 —48 II —36 —0.9 +2.7 III —02 —16 —14 III —02 —09 —07 III —21 —02 +1.9 1967 1967 1967 I +40 +08 —3.2 I +15 +418 +0.3 I —18 +1.0 +28 II +26 —44 —7.0 II —3.0 —18 +1.2 II —16 —1.0 +40.6 III —1.2 III —3.8 III 1968 1968 1968 I —3.1 I —2.3 I +0.5 II —22 II —0.6 II —0.1 III +41.1 III —1.5 III —0.4 1969 1969 1969 I +14 I —1.4 I +22 II —0.7 II +0.9 II +3.9 III —1.6 Ill +3.4 III +4.0 1970 1970 1970 I +0.2 I +44 I +2.5 II 403 II +428 i 442 III —02 III —0.7 III +04 1971 1971 1971 I —3.5 I —2.3 I +0.2 II —3.7 II —0.9 II —1.4 III —0.1 III +08 III —4.4 1972 1972 1972 I +5.8 I —0.3 I —2.1 II +10.6 II +0.4 II —1.0 NO. Ill ~ Pe) CINCINNATI Pre- Ob- dicted served —1,5 42.6 —3.5 —0.2 —2.1 = 21. 2351 —2.5 -—0.9 —1.7 +0.4 —0.7 +0.1 —2.8 —1.0 —16 —18 +2.2 +3.8 +1. +1.3 42.3 +3.5 +1.9 —0.6 —2.2 —3.5 —48 —5.0 —2.9 +0.7 A —6.1 —1.9 0.0 +1.8 —0.2 +0.8 +1.8 —0.2 TABLE 4.—continued DENVER Pre- Ob- dicted served —0.4 +3.0 +2.8 —0.6 —3.2 —2.1 +0.8 +1. +0.6 +1.5 +2.8 +0.6 —2.0 —3.6 —3.2 +0.3 +0.7 —0.2 +0.3 +2.4 45.4 44.6 he a sig +0.4 2g +1.4 +2.8 —4.9 TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR IQ U.S. CITIES—ABBOT EASTPORT Pre- dicted served 42.4 42.5 +2.7 +1.1 +1.5 Bee, aie 40.8 +0.4 —2.6 —24 —0.1 +1.2 +3.1 +2.0 +1.0 —2.0 —2.6 —1.7 +0.6 +2.6 +1.6 Ob- +2.5 +5.2 +1.3 +2.6 +2.9 +1.6 +04 449 13 A +2.8 —12 —0.1 +1.8 +0.1 —1.3 +3.7 14 SMITHSONIAN MISCELLANEOUS COLLECTIONS Et Paso Pre- dicted served (\aee E44 Tn 29 i} 28 WE: 205 I —0.1 II +1.4 III +1.6 I +0.9 II +0.4 III —0.7 I +1.6 II +18 III —0.3 I —1.0 II +0.6 III +3.3 I +3.8 II +1.9 III +12 I +3.3 II +5.2 Ob- +0.2 —0.6 —1.6 —0.6 —0.9 =94 +1.0 —1.3 A +1.1 —2.7 —3.5 —2.2 —0.9 154 —3Y TABLE 4.—continued GALVESTON Pre- dicted served 424 +34 =e +08 AF —2.2 —3.0 —3.0 —18 +0.2 +0.5 +0.4 40.1 11.0 +18 42.4 42.6 +3.3 +3.1 42.1 —0,1 40.6 Ob- 0.0 +0.2 +1.2 —1.5 —12 —0.2 412.4 —0.8 A —2.0 —2.2 —3.1 —2.0 +1.5 44.6 22 VOL. 153 HELENA Pre- Ob- dicted served +1.8 +2.0 +1.6 423 —0.4 —2.6 —2.6 —2.2 —2.9 —2.6 +0.5 +18 +2.4 —0.5 —0.6 +3.0 +3.0 +1.4 +0.3 0.0 +2.3 +3.9 +1.6 —3.3 +0.7 +3.2 —1.0 +4.5 +3.0 —0.4 NO. 5 TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR IQ U.S. CITIES—ABBOT LittLe Rock Pre- dicted +3.1 +1.5 —12 —1.6 —0.4 +1.0 —1.0 —3.0 —0.9 +1.1 +0.5 +0.6 414 +32 +1.0 —1.3 —1.6 —0.8 +1.0 +2.0 +2.8 +2.6 Ob- served {2 +04 +1.0 0.0 —0.8 —0.6 +1.9 —2.0 TABLE 4.—continued MARQUETTE Pre- dicted served +0.7 +0.8 +0.2 40.3 aah —1.0 —3.0 —0.9 +0.5 +1.7 +1.1 HAZ +14 $25 +3.1 +2.4 —0.6 a4 —6.2 —5.0 —3.6 +0.4 Ob- +1.0 —1.8 +0.1 444 +0.1 +0.2 +14 =,2 A —2.5 —0.7 442 02 41.6 42.4 +18 III MoBILeE Pre- dicted served +1.0 —0.3 Ob- 414 +0.6 42.2 —0.1 +0.6 +1.3 +3.3 0.0 15 A —0.4 +2.5 40.7 +18 +18 +1.9 —0.7 16 SMITHSONIAN MISCELLANEOUS COLLECTIONS NASHVILLE Pre- Ob- dicted served —0.3 +1.6 —0.7 42.7 +0.8 +3.6 -+0.4 +1.7 —1.8 +14 —08 +12 ++2.9 +-1.1 —2.7 +1.1 —1.5 —3.8 —4.9 —1.6 +0.6 +1.8 +1.6 +0.4 —1.6 —1.9 —1.2 +1.8 +3.8 127 A —2.3 —1.9 —3.2 —3.5 —2.2 417 —38 TABLE 4.—continued III PHOENIX Pre- Ob- dicted served —1.9 —0.3 —3.8 —0.2 +0.7 —15 +40.3 —14 +412 —2.1 —0.3 —18 +0.2 —1.4 —1.5 —2.2 —0.6 +0.4 +1.9 +1.9 +1.2 —0.7 +1.0 +2.2 ane E +1.5 +0.6 —1.9 +0.6 +0.9 A —3.5 +0.9 +1.8 +2.6 +1.8 +2.0 —0.1 III VOL. 153 PoRTLAND Pre- Ob- dicted served A —0.1 —10 41.7 +2.7 —0.9 +15 42.4 $2 $49 98 —02 —0.7 —0.5 —0.3 +1.4 +1.7 —2.0 +0.6 +2.6 —15 +14 42.9 —0.7 0.0 —1.2 414 —0.1 —1.2 —04 —0.2 +0.8 +0.1 —0.6 +0.7 +3.5 +3.6 +1.2 NO. 5 TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR IQ U.S. CITIES—ABBOT SACRAMENTO Pre- Ob- dicted served 0.0 —12 —14 +1.4 0.0 +18 +0.2 —0.5 +0.7 —3.5 +1.3 —2.3 —2.4 +1.0 +0.7 +1.1 +0.2 —0.6 +0.6 +3.2 +2.2 —0.3 —0.8 +1.2 +0.7 —0.8 —1,3 —1,7 +1.5 +2.0 TABLE 4.—continued III SANTA FE Pre- Ob- dicted served +1.0 +1.6 +1.6 a3 +0.1 —0.8 +0.8 —0.5 Eid —0.6 +02 +04 +2.0 +2.0 +2.3 +3.8 +3.2 +1.8 —0.9 —2.2 —17 —0.9 47.6 +48 467 +5.3 +7.2 +6.7 +7.0 19.4 +7.8 SPOKANE Pre- dicted served —4.5 —2.7 —0.5 +1.0 —2.6 —5.2 +1.1 +2.1 +49 45.8 +1.0 —04 +0.4 +0.4 —17 —3.3 —3.7 aaa 40.7 42.4 +4.4 46.5 Ob- —15 —41 +0.8 +0.6 —2.5 +1.6 414 267 17 A +0.5 +3.5 244 235 442 46.6 40.4 18 SMITHSONIAN MISCELLANEOUS COLLECTIONS VOL. 153 TABLE 4.—continued WASHINGTON, D. C. Pre- Ob- dicted served A 1965 I +1.0 Ls $625. shod aA TT) 20.8; 2829.) 20n To 08) e30.423.8 1h) 207. Seo, 7 jee es mS Ey OMe I —08 42.3 +3.1 II —1.8 —08 +1.0 III —17 I +0.2 II +02 Ill —1.4 gee 1Ljes Tinheeio I +122 II +1.2 III +41. I —1.3 II —3.0 III —3.2 I —1,1 II +1.3 NO. 5 TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR IQ U.S. CITIES—ABBOT 19 It is plain that the graph comprises intervals of good forecasts and intervening intervals of distorted forecasts. These intervals may be tabulated as follows: Mean Number observed Period of good forecasts ete predinted June 1942 to November 1944 30 20 April 1947 to January 1949 22 30 February 1957 to March 1961 50 15 March 1964 to December 1965 21 15 Total number of months of good forecasts iy 123 ae 80 Mean (80 + 4) = 20 Period of disturbed forecasts December 1944 to March 1947 28 45 February 1949 to January 1957 96 42 March 1961 to February 1964 36 40 Total number of months of ak oe disturbed forecasts 160 127 Total months of forecasts 283 Mean (127 ~ 3) = 42 Volcanoes and bombs produce similar effects. In Volume 4 of the Annals of the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, page 128, the effect of the eruption of the volcano Katmai, 6 June 1912, is re- corded in tabulating the multitude of pyrheliometer and bolometric- spectral observations made at Mount Wilson in 1912, 1913, and 1914. With a general mean of 1.370 calories in pyrheliometer read- ings, the departures noted in Augusts of 1912, 1913, and 1914 were as follows: Bete AGRE si bh ns — .239 LOND dtivy® «an tH —.101 eee — .022 So it is not remarkable to find that, in various intervals of months and years, large discrepancies between long-range forecasts (based on normal atmospheric conditions) occurred after the bombing between 1944 and 1960. 20 Publ. No. 2825 3114 3339 3637 3641 3765 3771 3807 3893 3901 3916 3940 3990 4015 4088 4090 4103 4135 4211 4213 Date 1925 1931 1935 1941 1941 1944 1944 1945 1947 1947 1948 1948 1949 1950 1952 1952 1953 1953 1955 1955 SMITHSONIAN MISCELLANEOUS COLLECTIONS VOL. 153 APPENDIX Smithsonian Miscellaneous Collections Volume 77, No. 5 Volume 85, No. 1 Volume 94, No. 10 Volume 101, No. 1 Volume 101, No. 5 Volume 104, No. 3 Volume 104, No. 5 Volume 104, No. 13 Volume 107, No. 4 Volume 107, No. 9 Volume 110, No. 1 Volume 110, No. 6 Volume 111, No. 13 Volume 111, No. 17 Volume 117, No. 10 Volume 117, No. 11 Volume 121, No. 5 Volume 122, No. 4 Volume 128, No. 3 Volume 128, No. 4 Title and Author Solar variation and forecasting, C. G. Abbot Weather dominated by solar changes, C. G. Abbot Solar radiation and weather studies, C. G. Abbot An wnportant weather element hitherto generally disregarded, C. G. Abbot On solar-constant and atmospheric temperature changes, Henryk Arc- towski A 27-day period in Washington pre- cipitation, C. G. Abbot Weather predetermined by solar varia- tion, C. G. Abbot Correlations of solar variation with Washington weather, C. G. Abbot The sun’s short regular variation and its large effect on terrestrial tem- peratures, C. G. Abbot Precipitation affected by solar varia- tion, C. G. Abbot Solar variation attending West Indian hurricanes, C. G. Abbot Magnetic storms, solar radiation, and Washington temperature changes, C. G. Abbot Short periodic variations and the tem- peratures of Washington and New York, C. G. Abbot Periodic influence of Washington and New York weather of 1949 and 1950, C. G. Abbot Periodicities in the solar-constant measures, C. G. Abbot Important interferences with normals in weather records, associated with sunspot frequency, C. G. Abbot Solar variation and precipitation at Albany, N.Y., C. G. Abbot Solar variation a leading weather ele- ment. C. G. Abbot Sixty-year weather forecasts, C. G. Abbot Periodic solar variation, C. G. Abbot NO. Publ. No. 4222 4265 4338 5 TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR IQ U.S. CITIES—ABBOT 21 Date 1955 1956 1958 1959 1960 1961 1961 1963 1966 1966 1967 1967 1967 Smithsonian Miscellaneous Collections Volume 131, No. Volume 134, No. Volume 135, No. Volume 138, No. Volume 139, No. Volume 143, No. Volume 143, No. Volume 146, No. Volume 148, No. Volume 148, No. Volume 151, No. Volume 152, No. Volume 152, No. 1 10 Title and Author Leading operations of the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, 1895- 1955, C. G. Abbot Periods related to 273 months or 22% years, C. G. Abbot Periodicities in ionospheric data, C. G. Abbot Long-range weather forecasting. C. G. Abbot A long-range forecast of United States precipitation. C. G. Abbot Sixteen-day weather forecasts from satellite observations, C. G. Abbot A long-range temperature forecast. C. G. Abbot Solar variations and weather, C. G. Abbot An account of the Smithsonian Insti- tution, 1904-1953, C. G. Abbot Forecasting from harmonic periods in precipitation, C. G. Abbot Precipitation in five countries, C. G. Abbot Supplement to a long-range forecast of United States precipitation, C. G. Abbot Solar magnetism and world weather. C. G. Abbot a th .