BY SAMUEL J. HOLMES, PH. D. PROFESSOR OF ZOOLOGY IN THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA NEW YORK HARCOURT, BRACE AND COMPANY 1921 COPYRIGHT, IQ2I, BY HARCOTOT, BRACE AND COMPANY, INC. PREFACE THE present volume is the outgrowth of a course of lectures on Eugenics which has been given for several years in the Univer- sity of California. Its aim is to present an account of the various forces which are at present modifying the inherited qualities of civilized mankind. In dealing with so extensive and complex a subject I have doubtless committed a number of errors and have probably not altogether escaped from being misled by statistical fallacies into which I have so often accused others of having fallen. The more extensively I have delved into the varied literature on the biological evolution of man, the more I have become impressed with the necessity of employing extreme cau- tion in drawing conclusions. Few subjects, in fact, present so many pitfalls for the unwary. It is with the conviction that it is especially important in this field to be sure one is right before going ahead that I have devoted so much effort to critical analysis at the risk of becoming tedious to the general reader. I am indebted to my colleagues Professor F. B. Sumner and Professor F. J. Teggart for reading my original manuscript and for making a number of valuable suggestions. The preparation of the present work has involved the compila- tion of an extensive bibliography which is to be published as an additional volume so that the references may be rendered avail- able for other investigators. S. J HOLMES Berkeley, Calif. Jan. 1921. CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE I. AN INTRODUCTORY ORIENTATION i II. THE HEREDITARY BASIS 1 1 III. THE INHERITANCE OF MENTAL DEFECTS AND DISEASE 27 IV. THE HERITABLE BASIS OF CRIME AND DELINQUENCY 73 V. THE INHERITANCE OF MENTAL ABILITY 98 VI. THE DECLINE OF THE BERTH RATE 118 VII. THE CAUSES OF THE DECLINE OF THE BIRTH RATE 143 VIII. NATURAL SELECTION IN MAN 181 IX. THE SELECTIVE INFLUENCE OF WAR 205 X. SEXUAL SELECTION AND ASSORTATIVE MATING 222 XI. CONSANGUINEOUS MARRIAGES AND MISCEGENATION 238 XII. THE POSSIBLE ROLE OF ALCOHOL AND DISEASE IN CAUSING HEREDITARY DEFECTS 269 XIII. THE ALLEGED INFLUENCE OF ORDER OF BIRTH AND AGE OF PARENTS UPON OFFSPRING 297 XIV. THE RACIAL INFLUENCE OF INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT 325 XV. THE SELECTIVE FUNCTION OF RELIGION 355 XVI. RETROSPECT AND PROSPECT 364 THE TREND OF THE RA CHAPTER I AN INTRODUCTORY ORIENTATION "It is the paradox and tragedy of high civilization that, in the present and in all preceding ages, its tendency has been to destroy or eliminate just those mental superiorities by which it has been built up and which are essential for its maintenance and further progress." — Wm. McDougall, Eugenics Rev. 5, 297. IN any discussion of the biological evolution of man it is essen- tial to distinguish clearly between changes in the hereditary qualities of human beings and changes in what human beings owe to the environment and institutions under which they live. The latter are matters of what Prof. Baldwin has called social heredity as distinguished from the heredity which has its physical basis in the germ plasm. Man's physical and social heredity while easily distinguished, at least theoretically, have very inti- mate relations. It is obvious that social heredity is largely dependent upon the innate qualities of men. No civilization could possibly be supported by creatures with the inheritance of the anthropoid apes, and it might happen that civilization would not long endure among people no higher than the lowest races of mankind. The innate endowments of races constitute a basic factor conditioning the nature of every type of civilization and every historic movement, although we may not be able to trace the precise way in which their effects are wrought out in the complex relations of human society. If the social heredity of man depends largely on his biological heredity, the latter in turn may be profoundly influenced by the kind of social environment under which men live. Those who accept the Lamarckian theory that acquired characteristics may 1 2 THE TREND OF THE RACE be transmitted to the next generation, naturally hold that man's inherited traits can be modified through experiences with his social environment. In the writings of Mr. Herbert Spencer, for instance, most of the peculiarly social endowments of human beings are explained as due to the cumulative inherited effects of the experience of men with their fellows. Human nature through such a process came to be moulded into conformity with the needs of social life, and in the course of time the adjustment, it was supposed, would become more and more nearly complete. If, however, as most biologists now believe, acquired characters are not transmitted to offspring, the social environment never- theless is able to influence human heredity in many ways. It may determine to a large extent what kinds of variations survive and propagate, and it may also determine, to some degree at least, the nature of the heredity variations which arise in the germ plasm. Whatever forces have been concerned in the evolution of plant and animal life doubtless continue to operate in the human species. Much still remains to be learned, however, in regard to the factors of evolution in the organic world. The subject is still steeped in controversy. Opinion among biologists remains undecided as to the potency of natural selection, the Lamarckian factor, ortho- genesis, isolation and mutation as causes of evolution. And he who would throw the most light on the problems of human biological evolution would perhaps labor most effectively by directing his attention to the lower organisms where it is possible to apply rigidly controlled experimental methods. But greatly as problems of human evolution would be illumi- nated by a knowledge of the way in which evolution has been brought about in organisms below man, there would remain a multitude of specifically human evolutionary problems which can be solved only by the study of human data. The development of civilization has brought mankind under influences which have never before come into play. In addition to the natural forces to which lower organisms are exposed, man has come to live in a social milieu which constitutes a very large part of what may be called his effective environment. From this circumstance have AN INTRODUCTORY ORIENTATION 3 arisen various selective agencies which tend to favor or reduce the prevalence of certain types of inherited traits according to the nature of the institutions that occur at any particular time and place. The first systematic discussion of those agencies forms the subject-matter of Lapouge's Les Selections Societies (1896), a work which, although not very critical, has had a considerable influence in stimulating the study of selection in man. Lapouge has described the operation of several forms of social selection, i. e., military, political, religious, moral, legal, economic and sys- tematic, all of which are brought into play as a consequence of the development of civilization. Military selection, according to the author, eliminates the best of the race; political selection, through the effects of civil war, the prison, the scaffold, and exile, gets rid of the more independent spirits and tends thereby to render the population submissive and tractable; religious selec- tion, through the celibacy of the clergy and by persecution, tends to effect the elimination of the more intelligent and independent minds; moral and legal selection in general produce dysgenic effects; and economic selection, while operating in many different ways, acts, on the whole, in the most destructive manner upon the superior elements of the race. As civilization becomes more advanced the evil effects of the various forms of social selection become more intense. The racial influence of civilization is there- fore bad. Progress may be achieved in science, art, literature and in the development of institutions, but this carries with it the seeds of its own destruction. The relatively feeble force of natural selection which still operates on human beings is powerless to stay the havoc which is being wrought by the selective agencies which result from the development of civilization. Such, in brief, is the rather sombre prospect which Lapouge has held up to our view. There is only one way by which these de- structive forces may be overcome, and that is by conscious, sys- tematic selection, or, as we should now call it, eugenics; but Lapouge is not sanguine over the prospect that human beings will ever bring themselves to supply this remedy in a really effective manner. 4 THE TREND OF THE RACE Most readers will instinctively shrink from accepting conclu- sions of so disquieting a nature. The world has long been familiar with the doctrine that civilizations, after attaining the flower of their development, tend to decay and lapse into relative bar- barism. Nations like individuals have been supposed to have their periods of birth, growth and natural death. But, although they have risen and fallen, the torch of progress has been handed on from one to another. Other nations came to the fore out of the great sea of humanity to take advantage of the knowledge and achievements of decadent peoples, and thus humanity has, on the whole, advanced. It might naturally be supposed that this process could be continued without assignable limits, and that, although nations now in the van of progress may lapse into decay, like the great empires of the past, they will be superseded by more virile peoples who will carry achievement to still greater heights. Were this true, we might be reconciled to national decadence, reflecting that it formed an incident in the general progressive development of humanity. But can this process continue? If the decadence of civilization were merely a social phenomenon, occurring without reference to the hereditary qualities of men, it would be of relatively minor significance in regard to our general biological evolution. If, on the other hand, it means the extinc- tion of relatively superior types of human inheritance its evolu- tionary significance is indeed serious. We cannot assume that the course of progressive evolution will go smoothly on despite the vicissitudes of our social and political institutions. Degener- ation in the organic world has taken place with such remarkable frequency that its occurrence in any group is a contingency to be looked upon as distinctly possible, if not probable. We have degenerate Protozoa, degenerate ccelenterates, degenerate worms, echinoderms, molluscs, crustaceans, arachnids, insects and verte- brates. Whole groups such as the cestodes, nematodes, and Acanthocephali bear the unmistakable signs of descent from more highly organized animals. Parallel illustrations are furnished in abundance among plants. Everywhere the nemesis of degeneracy AN INTRODUCTORY ORIENTATION 5 hangs threateningly over the organic world. The attainment of any degree of complexity or perfection of organization is no guaranty against deterioration. There is not the slightest ground for believing that man himself is in any degree shielded from its insidious influence. In fact, it is not improbable that many existing peoples have descended from ancestors who were more favored with natural gifts, and we should bear in mind the possi- bility that our own civilization may become one with Nineveh and Tyre. If human progress involves the successive exhaustion of the best blood of those nations which gain the ascendency in the development of culture, it can scarcely lead to any other result than a general deterioration of the human species. If there have always been races of superior inheritance, such as those of Nordic stock, which have remained upon a relatively low cultural level, and which were capable of acquiring the civilization of the decadent nations which they supplanted, it by no means follows that the human species will always be so favorably situated. Mr. Seth Humphrey has recently drawn attention to the "exhaustion of reserves" which are at present available for carrying on the work of civilization. Of all our national resources the most important is our supply of men of superior stock. And we are approaching a period in which the problem of the conservation of this resource is becoming more and more pressing. The biological situation of our race is at present in many respects unique. In the earlier stages of man's evolution develop- ment was mainly along divergent lines. The spread of mankind over the continents and islands of the globe brought about the formation of more or less completely isolated stocks, subjected to different conditions of environment. This resulted in breaking up the human species into a great multitude of divergent groups, in a manner which closely parallels the diversification of species of plants and animals subjected to the combined influence of isola- tion and varied surroundings. Few species of organisms present so great a variety of hereditarily diverse strains as our own. And even if we divide Homo sapiens into several distinct species, 6 THE TREND OF THE RACE the same statement would apply to each of the component groups. But now the trend of racial development has changed. Barriers that formerly kept peoples apart have become broken down. Races are meeting and amalgamating at a rate which becomes more rapid as time goes on and facilities for travel and intercom- munication increase. The diversities which were the product of the long period of man's earlier evolution are becoming rapidly submerged. The period of divergence is now superseded by a period of convergence which, if it does not involve the ultimate obliteration of our present distinctions of race, will certainly greatly diminish the number of separate ethnic stocks. Perhaps the final result, if we can speak of any result as final, will be the formation of a few races which occupy those climatic zones to which they are peculiarly adapted and which will form a perma- nent barrier against successful invasion by their enemies. But, however the process of racial fusion may work out, it is evident that the growing amalgamation of races and peoples and the extension of civilization over the earth will leave no room for the replacement of decadent products of civilization by superior stocks which have not yet been overtaken by culture. If civiliza- tion is really an enemy of racial improvement, it will ultimately check the course of man's biological evolution unless some effec- tive means can be instituted for counteracting its insidious effects. That it has a profound effect upon our biological development is a conclusion that cannot be escaped. But to discover just how it acts involves an attack upon a number of problems many of which are of great difficulty and many incapable of solution with the data at present available. Civilization influences human heredity in very diverse ways, some favorable and some the reverse. For a long time it may be impossible to estimate, with any degree of accuracy, the potency of the factors which are responsible for evolutionary changes in man. In an attack upon a complex and many-sided problem such as this, one has to be continually on guard against making hasty generalizations and falling into statistical fallacies. The reader who peruses the following chapters AN INTRODUCTORY ORIENTATION 7 will become impressed, if he has not been so before, with the numerous pitfalls into which the student of human evolution is liable to fall. The literature on the subject is full of conclusions based on inadequate evidence, yet put forth with a confidence which in itself should engender a suspicion of their soundness. But the most disappointing feature of the situation is the dearth of facts upon which safe deductions can be based. Demographi- cal statistics have been kept only for a relatively short period of time; and anthropometric data have not been gathered on a scale sufficiently extensive, or over a period sufficiently long, to give us an idea of the trend of development in any considerable group of men. Data compiled at different times and places are often not comparable for want of common standards. If we wish to deter- mine, in what ways the population of any country has been changed we encounter almost insuperable difficulties. The Parliamentary Committee appointed a few years ago to investi- gate the alleged physical deterioration of the people of Great Britain, after making an exhaustive enquiry, could come to no conclusion as to whether such deterioration had actually occurred. Of course this result is of little value in proving the absence of physical degeneracy in recent times. It is perfectly consistent with the view that such degeneration has even been rapid. It is simply a confession that the data are insufficient for the solution of the problem. But if we are lacking in records which tell us in what direction human beings have actually been changed, we can at least ascer- tain something of the action of the forces which are now at work in modifying the inherited qualities of the race. We can observe in a measure how things are actually going on. We can trace the way in which hereditary traits are transmitted; we can study at first hand the action .of natural selection in eliminating ill adapted strains of humanity; we can determine the relative degrees of rapidity with which different stocks reproduce themselves, and we can ascertain something of the action of the various selective forces which have arisen as a result of the development of human institutions. Where the data which are being accumulated are 8 THE TREND OF THE RACE insufficient for the solution of particular problems the defects may often be remedied by collecting additional information. Many questions of paramount importance are capable of solution by the use of the biometrical methods employed by Pearson and his co-workers of the Galton laboratory. What we need above all is investigation. And it is important that we realize that investiga- tion of the trend of human development is peculiarly timely. Our custom of regarding evolution as an exceedingly slow process in which a few centuries more or less count for relatively little should not make us unmindful of the fact that important racial modifications may at times take place in a very few generations. For an illustration of this fact it is only necessary to allude to the remarkable results which have been achieved, even within a few years, by the selective breeding of plants and animals. Many lines of evidence point to the conclusion that our human inheritance is changing at a comparatively rapid rate. In a species containing the great diversity of hereditary qualities which is exhibited by mankind there are abundant possibilities of rapid transformation. A person with our present knowledge of human heredity and en- dowed with the authority which the Great Master in Campanula's City of the Sun exercised over the matings of men and women, could produce, in a few generations, a remarkable array of diverse types. He could, for instance, breed an albino race, a deaf race, a feeble-minded race, an insane race, a race of dwarfs, a race with hook-like extremities instead of hands, a race of superior intellec- tual ability, or a race of high artistic talent. It may be said that such changes as may occur in a few generations affect merely the prevalence of characteristics already present, or the making of different combinations of existing hereditary factors. But from the standpoint of human welfare the importance even of such changes is tremendous. They may make all the difference between a breed of wretched degenerates and a race of physical vigor and superior mentality. The human species possessing so great a diversity of hereditary traits and subjected to the in- fluences of so many changing forces both physical and social can scarcely fail to undergo more or less rapid modification. If our AN INTRODUCTORY ORIENTATION 9 race would ayoid the danger of deterioration and realize the best of its hereditary possibilities we should know first of all what is trie present trend of our development and what are some of the more important forces by which our development is guided. It is to a consideration of the forces which are modifying the inherited qualities of modern civilized peoples that the present book is devoted. The undertaking naturally leads us to discuss the inheritance of those human traits which are of especial signifi- cance in relation to the progressive or retrogressive development of mankind. After the first few chapters on this general topic the rest of the book is mainly concerned with a treatment of the selective agencies that determine what types of human inheri- tance tend to prevail over others, and the relation of these selec- tive agencies to various factors in our social environment. REFERENCES The following works of a more or less general character treat of a number of the topics discussed in the present volume : Ammon, O. Die Gesellschaftsordnung und ihre natiirlichen Grundlagen. Jena, 1895. Ellis, H. H. The Task of Social Hygiene. Constable and Co., London, 1912, Houghton, Mifflin Co., Boston. Galton, F. Essays in Eugenics. Eugenics Education Soc., London, 1909. Grant, M. The Passing of the Great Race. Scribner's, N. Y., 1916. Guyer, M. Being Well Born. Bobbs-Merrill Co., Indianapolis, 1916. Headley, F. W. Problems of Evolution. Crowell and Co., N. Y., 1901. Hill, G. Chatterton. Heredity and Selection in Sociology. A. and C. Black, Lon- don, 1907. Humphrey, S. Mankind. Scribner's, N. Y., 1917. Kellicott, W. E. The Social Direction of Human Evolution. Appleton Co., N. Y., and London, 1915. Kelsey, C. The Physical Basis of Society. Appleton Co., N. Y., and London, 1916. McKim, W. D. Heredity and Human Progress. Putnam's Sons, N. Y., and Lon- don, 1900. Pearson, K. The Grammar of Science, 2d ed. A. and C. Black, London, 1900. Popenoe, P., and Johnson, R. H. Applied Eugenics. Macmillan Co., N. Y., 1918. Reid, G. A. The Present Evolution of Man. Chapman and Hall, London, 1896. Rentoul, R. R. Race Culture or Race Suicide? W. Scott, London, 1906. Saleeby, C. W. Parenthood and Race Culture. Moffat Yard and Co., London and N. Y., IQH. Saleeby, C. W. The Progress of Eugenics. Funk and Wagnalls Co., N. Y. and London, 1914. io THE TREND OF THE RACE Schallmayer, W. Vererbung und Auslese im Lebenslauf der Volker, 2d ed. G. Fischer, Jena, 1910. Whetham, W. C. D., and Whetham, C. D. The Family and the Nation. Long- mans, London, 1909. Heredity and Society, Longmans, London, 1912. An Introduction to Eugenics. Bowes and Bowes, Cambridge, 1912. Woltmann, L. Politische Anthropologie. Eisenach and Leipzig, 1903. In addition to the above general references attention may be called to a few periodicals such as The Eugenics Review, Eugenique, The Journal of Heredity, the Archiv fur Rassen-und Gesellschafls-Biologie, Biomelrica, the politisch-anthrop. Revue (now the politisch-anthrop, Monalschr.), the Zeit. fur Sozialwissenschaft, the publications of the Galton Laboratory of National Eugenics of the University of London, and those of the Eugenics Record Office at Cold Spring Harbor, Long Island. A large amount of material on the topics here discussed is contained in the census reports of different countries and in various statistical periodicals, especially the Publications of the American Statistical Society, the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, and Das allgemeine statistische Archiv. Much of value to the student of racial development is contained in the works on Vital Statistics by Farr (1885), Newsholme (1899) and Whipple (1919), Oettingen's Moralstatistik, and especially v. Mayr's Statistik und Gesellschatfslehre. CHAPTER II THE HEREDITARY BASIS "The experimental study of heredity, development and evolution in forms of life below man must certainly increase our knowledge of and our control over these processes in the human race. If human heredity, development and evolution may be controlled to even a slight extent we may expect that sooner or later the human race will be changed for the better." — E. G. Conklin, Heredity and Environment in the Development of Men. BEFORE entering upon a discussion of the complex biological problem of the evolution of man, it may be useful to touch briefly upon some of the main principles which are observed to hold true for the transmission of hereditary traits. The establishment of the doctrine of evolution naturally lent a great impetus to the study of heredity and the complementary topic of variation. The search for the causes of evolution would be greatly aided by a knowledge of the principles or laws according to which variations in organisms arise and are transmitted to subsequent generations. No one appreciated this fact more than Mr. Darwin as is evinced not only by several chapters in the Origin of Species, but espe- cially by his great work on the Variation of Animals and Plants under Domestication. It was his conviction that the key to the method of evolution lay in the close and careful study of variation that led to the vast amount of observation and experiment which Darwin devoted to this subject. The ingenious theory of pan- genesis by which Darwin attempted to give a provisional explana- tion not only of inheritance, but of many phenomena of variation as well, shows how thoroughly he appreciated the fundamental importance of true insight into these processes. Darwin considered his doctrine of pangenesis as a provisional hypothesis, a tentative theoretic formulation of a principle which would introduce some order into what was then a chaos of empiri- 12 THE TREND OF THE RACE cally collected facts. He postulated that the different organs of the body gave off into the blood, or other bodily fluids, minute living particles which he called gemmules, and which he supposed to be capable of growth and multiplication. The germ cells were supposed to have a special affinity for these gemmules, their function being to act as storehouses for these bodies. During development the gemmules were sorted out, each kind determin- ing the development of a part of the embryo into the kind of organ from which it was derived. This theory gave scientific expression to the traditional concep- tion of inheritance according to which the parts of the offspring are derived from corresponding parts of the bodies of their par- ents. It afforded also a means of explaining how characters acquired by the parents might be transferred to following genera- tions. Darwin, like most of his contemporaries, accepted the doctrine of the transmission of acquired characters which La- marck had postulated as the chief cause of organic evolution. He supposed that parts which are developed through exercise would produce more gemmules and that this would cause the corre- sponding part to be better developed in following generations. The hereditary effects of disuse were explained in a similar man- ner. Granting Darwin's doctrine of pangenesis, the explana- tion of the transmission of acquired characters followed very naturally. But the fundamental difficulty of the doctrine lay in the artificial and improbable nature of its fundamental assumptions. Although ingeniously worked out and applied, the theory gained few followers, and as knowledge of the cellular basis of heredity came to be more minute and thorough, its incongruity with known facts became more and more apparent. Although the doctrine of pangenesis has now been given up, its influence upon subsequent theories of heredity is unmistakable. De Vries modified it by eliminating the hypothesis of the cen- tripetal flow of pangens, thus greatly simplifying it and avoiding some of its most improbable elements. The pangens were not supposed to be given off by the cells of the body and stored up in THE HEREDITARY BASIS 13 the germ cells, but the germ cells were held to receive their store of pangens from antecedent germ cells. The denial of the flow of pangens from the body to the germ cells did away with the means by which Darwin accounted for the transmission of acquired or somatogenic characters. De Vries did not hesitate to accept the logical consequence of his hypothesis although he dwelt compara- tively little on this feature of his doctrine. It is in the writings of Professor August Weismann that we find the opposition to Lamarckism taking the form of vigorous and sustained attacks. Weismann in his early essay On Heredity set forth a very simple and plausible theory of transmission in his doctrine of the continuity of the germ plasm. This conception had been put forth previously by several writers (Owen, Galton, His, Nussbaum, Jager, Rauber), but it did not attract much attention until expounded in the lucid and attractive essays of Weismann who made it the basis of a series of brilliant and elabo- rate speculations on the mechanism of hereditary transmission. Weismann taught that the germ plasm is a substance separate from the soma plasm which forms the organs of the body, and that it is in no way the product of the body, although it is carried and nourished by the body. Germ plasm is handed on relatively unchanged from one generation to the next, part of it being trans- formed into soma plasm which differentiates in various ways during embryonic development, but another part of it remaining undifferentiated in the germ cells to form the starting point of the next generation. Some germ plasm is, therefore, handed on in a continuous stream through successive generations, the bodies of the parents acting as "trustees of the germ plasm." It is the continuity of the germ plasm that affords the basis for heredity. Parent and offspring resemble each other not because the off- spring are, in any sense, the product of the parent's body, but because both parent and offspring arise from a common substance, the germ plasm. Poulton has aptly said that Weismann's theory makes the offspring the younger brothers and sisters of their parents. We might compare successive generations to a series of plants arising from an underground runner or root stalk. i4 THE TREND OF THE RACE The plants resemble one another not because one is derived from the other, but because all are derived from a common source. Such a view of heredity, sharply opposed as it was to the older views that derived the offspring in some way from the various parts of the body of its parents, made the transmission of acquired characters improbable a priori. Weismann accordingly sub- jected the evidence for such transmission to a searching criticism and came to the conclusion that it was entirely inadequate. His attacks upon the Lamarckian theory which appeared in a series of essays, books and lectures nearly up to the period of his death did much to shake the faith of biologists in this at one time widely accepted doctrine. Weismann was not content simply to explain heredity as due to the continuity of the germ plasm, and to remove obstacles that seemed to lie in the path of that theory. He attempted to elabo- rate a theory of the composition of the germ plasm which would explain development, regeneration and various other phenomena in addition to heredity. Investigations into the structure of the cell and especially the peculiar behavior of the sex cells in matura- tion and fertilization had revealed a wonderful and orderly series of phenomena of which even the contemporaries of Darwin had little dreamed. Weismann was among the first to interpret the significance of these striking phenomena for the theory of heredity and evolution, and the essential part of his early theory of the significance of maturation has received a remarkable verification by recent work. More than any one else Weismann is responsible for directing attention to the importance of the combination of the study of heredity with cytology which has lately been produc- tive of such brilliant results. Many of the features of his elabo- rate speculative system have been rendered improbable (though we may not say definitely disproved) by experimental work; others have proven to be remarkably prophetic; on the whole, the body of doctrine which may be designated as Weismannism, as it was by Romanes, has afforded a great stimulus to the study and interpretation of the facts of heredity, and has left its very THE HEREDITARY BASIS 15 evident impress on much of recent thinking on the doctrine of evolution. The discovery which has meant most for the progress of ge- netics is unquestionably Mendel's law. The product of years of research in the garden of the monastery at Briinn, Austria, the principles enunciated by Mendel, owing to the fact that they were published in a little-known journal, The Proceedings of the Natural History Society at Briinn, failed to attract the attention of the scientific world until they were made known independently by three investigators, Tschermak, Correns and De Vries in the year 1900. Thus began, with the beginning of the 2oth century, a new era in the study of genetics. Progress in this field since 1900 has taken place at a very rapid rate. The amount of literature devoted to the subject suddenly swelled to several times its previous volume, and it is probably no exaggeration to say that since the rediscovery of Mendel's law a greater advance has been made toward a scientific analysis of the phenomena of heredity than had been made during all preceding time. Mendel's law embraces two principles designated commonly as (i) the law of dominance, and (2) the law of segregation. Ac- cording to the first, when two related but contrasted characters are brought together in a cross the one appears to the exclusion of the other. Mendel found, for instance, that when he crossed tall and dwarf peas the immediate progeny were all tall instead of intermediate in height. When he crossed green and yellow peas the first generation (called the first filial or FI generation) con- sisted entirely of yellow peas. The characters tall and yellow are designated dominant in contrast to dwarf and green which are called recessive. The recessive characters are not lost, as is shown when the members of the FI generation are either interbred or self -polli- nated. They appear in the second or F2 generation along with a certain proportion of dominants. Numerous experiments have shown that in typical cases the dominant and recessive characters are segregated in the second generation in the proportion of three dominant to one recessive. The separation of the original char- 16 THE TREND OF THE RACE acters according to definite numerical ratios in the second genera- tion is the principle of segregation which is the most general and significant feature of Mendel's great doctrine. The recessives which come out in the F2 generation are pure and hence breed true, but the members of the F2 generation which show the dominant character are not all alike, as is shown by subsequent breeding. One-third of them continue to produce nothing but dominants during the subsequent generations; but two-thirds of them continue to produce recessives in the ratio of one of the latter to three that show the dominant character. We might write the general formula for the Fz generation, instead of 3D + iR, as iDD + 2DR-f-iRR, or one pure dominant, two heterozygous or impure forms and one pure recessive. Complete dominance is by no means a general phenomenon. Contrasted characters frequently blend in the first filial genera- tion and many gradations occur between complete dominance and a strictly intermediate condition. But this in no wise alters the fact of segregation although it may render segregation more difficult to establish. A typical instance is afforded by crossing red and white four o'clocks. The FI generation consists of flowers of an intermediate or pink color. The second generation, however, consists of one- fourth pure red, one-half pink and one-fourth white. The red and white produce nothing but red and white respectively; they are hence pure or homozygous for these characters. The pink four o'clocks produce red, pink, and white in the 1:2:1 ratio. In Mendelian inheritance pairs of characters such as green and yellow, tall and dwarf, etc., commonly appear to segregate inde- pendently, giving us all possible combinations of different pairs. Crossing a tall yellow with a dwarf green pea gives us in the FI only tall yellow peas, but in the F2 we obtain gty+3tg+3dw -f-igw. This is the expected ratio if the members of the two pairs of characters were distributed and combined in independ- ence of each other. As Mendel himself pointed out, characters are distributed in inheritance as they would be if the germ cells were pure as regards one or the other member of a pair of con- THE HEREDITARY BASIS 17 trasted characters. What is now known of the germ cells enables us to point with great probability to the cellular mechanism by which this purity of the gametes or mature germ cells is main- tained. The same mechanism also affords an explanation of the phenomenon of linkage or the tendency of diverse characters to maintain a certain association in inheritance. The mechanism consists of the chromosomes of the nucleus which there are strong reasons for believing maintain their individuality, as they do their number, not only through numerous cell generations in the life of the individual, but through an indefinite number of life cycles of individual organisms. The behavior of these chromosomes in maturation and the process of synapsis immediately preceding maturation is precisely such as would explain the distribution of characters according to Mendel's law if we grant that individual chromosomes contain factors for the production of particular characters. We cannot give an idea of the remarkable success that has been attained in connecting the phenomena of inheri- tance with peculiarities of chromosome behavior, and must refer the reader to special works and papers dealing with this topic. I can scarcely do more than indicate in a short chapter the various applications of Mendel's law in interpreting many enigmatical phenomena of inheritance. The phenomena of reversion, the results of inbreeding, the heredity of sex and the peculiar phe- nomena of sex-linked inheritance are seen in a new light since the discovery of Mendel's law. Since Mendel's law has been found so widely applicable in plants and animals, we should expect to find it expressed also in the inheritance of man. Already numerous human traits are known which give strong evidence of being transmitted in accord- ance with this law. Since it is not feasible to treat human beings as we do plants and animals it is difficult to ascertain in many cases whether inheritance is in fact strictly Mendelian. A list, though incomplete, of traits which are probably transmitted according to Mendel's law is given in the following table: I ^^* i Sfiijj I Normal eyes 18 THE TREND OF THE RACE Table of Human Hereditary traits Dominant Characters Recessive or Partly Recessive Characters Dark hair Light hair Lack of hair (hypotrichosis), Beaded hair Normal Dark skin Light skin Pigmented skin Albinism Partial albinism, keratosis, ichthyosis, tylosis, } XT ... }• Normal skin epidermolysis J Dark eyes Light eyes Cataract, pigmentary retinitis, coloboma? glaucoma, displaced lens, nystagmus Tall stature (in part) Short statute (in part) Achondroplastic dwarfism Normal Polydactylism, brachydactylism, syndactylism, 1 ... . Fragility of bone, Symphalangy, exostoses J Normal Deaf mutism, otosclerosis Hapsburg lip, Hare lip (imperfect dominant?) Normal Diabetes Normal Superior mentality Inferior mentality f Feeble-mindedness, epilepsy, Normal mentality or nervous condition •{ insanity, Meniere's disease, chorea, multiple sclerosis Huntington's chorea, muscular atrophy Normal Sex Linked (mostly recessive) Characters Color blindness, night blindness, haemophilia, neuritis optica, Cower's muscular atrophy Certain characters, such as skin color in negro-white crosses, appear to form permanent blends, but as Davenport has attempted to show, this may be a complex case of Mendelian transmission in which a considerable number of determiners for skin color are involved. The great variability in the skin color of mulattoes has been appealed to in support of this view. Cases of complex Mendelian transmission are especially difficult to analyze in man and we may have to judge them in the light of analogy with what occurs in the lower animals. With the progress of genetics more and more success is being attained in the resolution of complex and apparently irreconcilable cases in terms of Mendelian prin- ciples. As we learn more of inheritance in man, the more we find that it falls into line with what is known of inheritance in the THE HEREDITARY BASIS 19 lower forms of life. It is fortunate for the solution of many of our. problems that we are so closely affiliated with the brute creation. This is especially the case in regard to the problems invoking a knowledge of human heredity, for we may learn more of this subject by studying heredity in other forms than by studying the heredity of man himself. Unfortunately, however, for many problems of the highest importance we cannot directly avail ourselves of our knowledge of the heredity of lower forms. Many of the qualities that make human beings socially desirable or the reverse do not have their strict counterparts in the animal wrorld, and often they represent complex states influenced greatly in their expression by environmental agencies and hence presenting almost insuperable difficulties in the way of resolution into their component heredi- tary factors. In the following three chapters we shall deal with the transmission of some of the traits which are of greatest impor- tance in regard to the progress of the race. We cannot close this preliminary chapter on inheritance with- out some discussion of the relative importance of heredity and environment in the development of man, especially since the question is one upon which there exists an extraordinary amount of confusion of thought. The question, Which is the more important, heredity or environment? has provoked endless dis- cussion. To argue over the question in its general and unqualified form is futile, since both heredity and environment are absolutely essential to every organism. The difficulty is much like asking which is the more important for the maintenance of life, matter or energy? Heredity under the same environment makes the difference between a cow, bird, insect or plant. Environment may make all the difference between a normal organism and a monstrosity or between a living organism and no organism at all. Every organism is a function of both hereditary and environmen- tal factors. We may express this in the formula O=/(HE). Alter either H (heredity) or E (environment) and the O is changed. Without either H or E the organism would not exist. We cannot say that in general one is more important than the other because each is all important. 20 THE TREND OF THE RACE But while it is futile to argue over this question in the abstract, it may become a very practical problem if it is narrowed down to particular characteristics of a given breed under a specified range of conditions. We may illustrate this by considering the effects of heredity and environment in raising corn. Everyone knows that corn grown on rich fertile soil produces a much greater yield than corn grown on poor soil. Everyone knows also that, in a given soil, the yield depends largely on the variety of corn that is used for seed. There are varieties which in fair soil will yield over ico bushels per acre; others under the same condition which produce only miserable nubbins yielding less than five bushels per acre; and some, to take an extreme case, which would produce no seed at all. We get a variation due to heredity between say 150 bushels per acre and o. If we take extreme environmental conditions we get a variation in a given strain between the maximum yield (say 200 bushels per acre) and o, for it is obvious that if we planted our corn in an environment sufficiently unfa- vorable it would not grow at all. There is no use arguing which is the more important in raising corn, good seed or good soil and climate. If, however, we ask whether it is more important to make the best choice of seed between variety A and variety B or to make the best choice of one or the other of two pieces of ground, our question is a sensible one and capable of fairly easy solution. We may test our varieties under given conditions and compare our yield. We could then obtain a measure of their hereditary difference under a given constant environment, and express it in a ratio such as A:B: 13:4. Similarly we might test out the yield of each variety in our two fields and we might find that one field C is so much better than the other that both vari- eties produce twice as much in the first as they did in the second. If they continue to do so over a period of years varying with temperature, rainfall, etc., we might say that for these particular varieties of corn the relative influence of fields C and D is as 2:1. Therefore we might conclude that the choice of a proper field is more important than the choice of the best seed. If, however, it was a question of the seed of variety B and the seed of variety C THE HEREDITARY BASIS 21 the case might be different. The latter variety might not yield more than a fourth of the former in either of the fields. In this instance the choice of the best seed would be more important than the choice of the best field. When we compare the influence of heredity and environment it is necessary to state what particular hereditary conditions we are comparing with what given range of environmental conditions. We then have a soluble problem, at least theoretically. We might make a rough estimate of the relative importance of the heredi- tary conditions that are commonly found within the limits of the species or variety with the conditions that are produced by the variations of environment to which the species is commonly ex- posed. Leaving out of account the variations in heredity that might occur and taking the average of such variations as are actually met with, and leaving out of account what environmental conditions might accomplish and considering hi general only what is actually done, we may obtain results that can be compared. We might find our species to be remarkably uniform in its heredi- tary constitution, and that the bulk of the diversity within it could be attributed to the effect of external conditions. On the other handt the species might possess much hereditary variability like the mixed breeds of many of our domestic plants and animals in which the differences of innate constitution are much more conspicuous than those produced by the environment. Homo sapiens, the species in which we are particularly inter- ested in the present connection, contains a high degree of heredi- tary diversity. Not only does each of the major divisions of the species (if we may be permitted to group all mankind into one species) contain numerous minor groups which are commonly further subdivided, but most peoples, especially among civilized nations, represent racial mixtures of many different stocks. A little observation of the multitudes we encounter in going along a street cannot fail to impress one with the heterogeneity of his fellow creatures, and it does not require extensive dealings with our kind to convince one that they are as diverse in mental 22 THE TREND OF THE RACE aptitudes, disposition and character as they are in their form and features. The extent to which our human differences are hereditary is a matter about which there is much difference of opinion. Con- cerning the peculiarities of features and complexion which are characteristic of racial subdivisions and which may be seen very frequently to run in members of a family there is little oppor- tunity for disagreement. Stature, strength, endurance, eyesight and temperament, since they are obviously influenced by the environment are frequently considered as affected more by the environment than through variations in hereditary constitution. We cannot test the matter experimentally as we might in dealing with characters of corn or wheat, but it is possible to investigate the subject by statistical methods. Professor Karl Pearson and several of his associates of the Galton Laboratory of the Univer- sity of London have tested the relative influence of heredity and environment in a number of human traits such as eyesight, height, weight and intelligence. Their method is to ascertain the degree of similarity existing between certain characteristics occurring in parent and offspring and among the siblings of the same family. These similarities may be expressed numerically by a coefficient of correlation. Coefficients of correlation were worked out also for various environmental differences. These correlations if based on a sufficient number of cases will afford a measure of the in- fluence exerted by the environment. Then the correlations between relatives may be compared with those correlations which are the result of environmental influence. In the study of the relative influence of heredity and environment on defects of vision Barrington and Pearson ascertained that the coefficient of corre- lation between parent and offspring and between siblings for keenness of vision was from .4 to .6 which is much the same value as that which is found for other hereditary traits. They measured the correlations of keenness of vision and refraction with environ- mental conditions in a large number of school children living under a variety of circumstances, and found that these correla- tions were very small. In other words, the eyesight of children THE HEREDITARY BASIS 23 showed very little effect of the different environments to which the children were exposed. Presumably, therefore, differences in vision met with among children are the results of differences of inheritance much more than differences of environment. Whether differences among human beings are due in greater measure to heredity depends very largely on the characters studied. Differ- ences in eye color are due almost entirely to heredity, as the character shows scarcely any effect of ordinary environmental changes. In stature and weight environmental influence is more obvious although heredity is an important factor. In manners and customs environmental influence is more obvious still, and whether a person talks English or Chinese may depend entirely upon the locality in which he is raised. If he had the heredity of a horse or a cow he would be unable to talk either, but if his heredity were such that he could talk any human language, en- vironment would determine what language he would speak or whether or not he would speak any. A good illustration of the relative influence of heredity and environment is afforded by the resemblance of so-called identical twins compared with that of twins of the usual kind. The recog- nition of these two classes of twins is due to Francis Galton, who gave several illustrations of striking similarities between twins which he termed identical. Ordinary twins are about as different as other members of the same family. They frequently exhibit marked di^.rences in physical traits, in intelligence and disposi- tion, ar.a the almost identical surroundings in which the" are frequently brought up, fail to overcome their inherited differences which are often conspicuous even in early life. One of Galton's correspondents describes his twin offspring by saying "They have had exactly the same nurture from their birth up to the present time; they are both perfectly healthy and strong, yet they are otherwise as dissimilar as two boys could be, physically, mentally and in their emotional nature." Another correspondent says of a pair of twins, "They were never alike either in body or mind, and their dissimilarity increases daily. The external influences have been identical; they have never been separated." 24 THE TREND OF THE RACE While ordinary twins show varying degrees of resemblence, identical twins belong apparently in a class by themselves. It is a commonly accepted view, having much evidence in its favor that true identical twins which are always of the same sex, are developed within the same chorion and arise from the same ferti- lized egg. They may therefore be regarded as having the same heredity. Among armadillos, Dasypus novem-cinctus, it is known that commonly four young are derived from a single ovum, which develops beyond the gastrula stage before giving rise to four embryos, and it is not improbable that a similar procedure is occasionally followed in the development of twins in man. Double monsters in man are of the same sex and are known in many cases to have been enclosed in the same chorion, but it is unfortunate that direct observational evidence that identical twins are in fact monochorial is lacking although many facts support this conclu- sion. The cases of remarkably close resemblance between twins are so numerous that it is not reasonable to suppose that they are the results of merely chance associations of similar ancestral characteristics. Galton remarks that, "Among my thirty-five detailed cases of close similarity, there are no less than seven in which both twins suffered from some special ailment or had some exceptional peculiarity. One twin writes that she and her sister 'have both the defect of not being able to come down stairs quickly, which, however, was not born with them, but came on at the age of twenty.' Three pairs of twins have peculiarities in their fingers; in one case it consists in a slight congenital flexure of one of the joints of the little ringer; it was inherited from a grandmother, but neither parents, nor brothers, nor sisters show the least trace of it. In another case the twins have a peculiar way of bending the fingers, and there was a faint tendency to the same peculiarity in the mother, but in her alone of all the family. In a third case, about which I made a few enquiries, which is given by Mr. Darwin, but is not included in my returns, there was no known family tendency to the peculiarity which was observed in the twins of having a crooked little finger. In another pair of twins, one was born ruptured and the other became so at six THE HEREDITARY BASIS 25 months old. Two twins at the age of twenty-three were attacked by toothache, and the same tooth had to be extracted in each case. There are curious and close correspondences mentioned in the falling off of the hair. Two cases are mentioned of death from the same disease; one of which is very affecting. The outline of the story was that the twins were closely alike and singularly attached ; . . . they both obtained Government clerkships and kept house together, when one sickened and died of Blight's disease, and the other also sickened of the same disease and died seven months later." The other cases of striking resemblance given by Gal ton and the additional data afforded by later investigators clearly indicate the existence of a class of twins characterized either by identical inheritance, or an inheritance so similar as to be unac- countable according to the ordinary laws of hereditary transmis- sion. This very close resemblance in bodily and mental states commonly persists when the twins have been long separated and exposed to different environments.1 The ordinary differences of environment met with in the life of people of much the same mental status apparently fail to produce changes in the personality of human beings as great as commonly met with in the children of the same parents. Whatever may be said of the differences which either heredity or environment might produce, there are strong grounds for the statement of Gal ton's "that nature prevails enormously over nurture when the differences of nurture do not exceed what is commonly to be found among persons of the same rank of society and in the same country. My fear is, that my evidence may seem to prove too much, and be discredited on that account, as it appears contrary to all experience that nurture should go for so little. But expe- rience is often fallacious in ascribing great effects to trifling cir- cumstances. Many a person has amused himself with throwing bits of stick into a tiny brook and watching their progress; how they are arrested, first by one chance obstacle, then by another; and again, how their onward course is facilitated by a combina- Additional information on the subject may be found in number 9 of the Journal of Heredity (Dec., 1909), which is devoted entirely to twins. 26 THE TREND OF THE RACE tion of circumstances. He might ascribe much importance to each of these events, and think how largely the destiny of the stick had been governed by a series of trifling accidents. Never- theless all the sticks succeed in passing down the current, and in the long-run, they travel at nearly the same rate. So it is with life, in respect to the several accidents which seem to have had a great effect upon our careers. The one element, that varies in different individuals, but is constant in each of them, is the natu- ral tendency; it corresponds to the current in the stream, and inevitably asserts itself." REFERENCES The reader who wishes to inform himself on the present status of the science of genetics will find a number of good recent books among which may be mentioned Castle's Genetics and Eugenics; Babcock and Clausen's Genetics in Relation to Agriculture; Bateson's, Mendel's Principles of Heredity; Plate's Vererbungslehre; Goldschmidt's Einfuhrung in die Vererbungsuvissenschaft; Morgan's Physical Basis of Heredity; Morgan's et al. Mechanism of Mendelian Heredity; Walter's Genetics and Punnett's Mendelism. Thomson's Heredity, although not brought up to date is still a useful general treatise. Of more special connection with the preced- ing chapter are the following: Barrington, A., and Pearson, K. A First Study of the Inheritance of Vision and of the Relative Influence of Heredity and Environment on Sight. Eugen. Lab. Mems., 5, 1909. Conklin, E. G. Heredity and Environment in the Development of Men. Prince- ton Univ. Press, 3d ed., 1919. Darwin, L. Heredity and Environment. Eugen. Rev. 5, 153-154, 1913. See also 1. c. 8, 93-122, 1916. Davenport, C. B. Heredity in Relation to Eugenics. Holt and Co., N. Y., 1911. Elderton, E. M. The Relative Strength of Nurture and Nature. Eugen. Lab. Lect. Series, 3, 1909. Galton, F. Natural Inheritance. Macmillan Co., London and N. Y., 1889. In- quiries into Human Faculty. Macmillan Co., London, 1883, and subsequently in Everyman's Library. Pearl, R. Modes of Research in Genetics. Macmillan Co., N. Y., 1915. Pearson, K. The Grammar of Science, 2d ed. A. and C. Black, London, 1900; Nature and Nurture. The Problem of the Future. Eugen. Lab. Lect. Series, 6, 1910. Popenoe, P. Nature or Nurture? Jour. Hered., 6, 227-240, 1915. Weismann, A. Essays on Heredity, 2 vols., Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1891, 1892. The Germ Plasm, W. Scott, London, 1893. The Evolution Theory, 2 vols., Arnold, London, 1904. CHAPTER III THE INHERITANCE OF MENTAL DEFECTS AND DISEASE "Our human civilized stock is far more weakly through congenital imperfection than that of any other species of animals, whether wild or domestic." — Francis Galton, Inquiries into Human Faculty. THAT many forms of mental deficiency and disorder are capable of hereditary transmission, has long been recognized, but it is only recently that attempts have been made to discover the precise rules according to which such transmission takes place. Much, however, still remains obscure in regard to this important topic. The vast literature on the subject contained in works on medicine and pathology, in numerous medical journals and va- rious other publications consists mainly in the discussion of iso- lated cases of transmission, or the compilation of mass statistics from the records of institutions for the care of the mentally ab- normal. Institutional records being often gathered in a more or less perfunctory manner, and by many different persons, are apt to include numerous inaccuracies and are pretty sure to fall short of the desired degree of fullness. The relatives of mental defec- tives from motives of family pride frequently conceal the exist- ence of defects in other members of the family, and even when they honestly attempt to give all the information they possess they often fail to furnish data of any value. It is not surprising, therefore, to encounter wide differences of opinion among authorities concerning the extent to which various forms of defect depend upon a hereditary diathesis. Practically everyone whose opinion is of any value concedes to heredity a certain role in the causation of neuropathic traits. A part of the difference of opinion doubtless depends upon the circumstance that the relative potency of hereditary and environmental factors 27 28 THE TREND OF THE RACE is often difficult to estimate; but it requires no great discernment to perceive that many rather confident expressions of opinion are based on lack of familiarity with the principles of hereditary transmission, or a very inadequate acquaintance with the investi- gations that have been made in this field. The method of investigation employed by the Eugenics Record Office at Cold Spring Harbor, Long Island, is one that is in some respects considerably superior to those commonly followed. Instead of collecting mass statistics a more intensive study is made of special cases. For this purpose trained field workers are employed who make the acquaintance of the relatives of the patients investigated, get into friendly relations with them, and through personal impressions and a knowledge of their history are enabled to form a tolerably accurate judgment of their mental status. The full and careful study of several pedigrees of mental defectives promises to throw more light on the precise method in which mental defects are inherited than any amount of unana- lyzed data collected from the loose records of institutions. Field workers need to be psychologists skilled in the methods of meas- uring intelligence and of detecting mental aberrations, and en- dowed with the attributes of tact, patience and an ingratiating personality. Data secured by field workers have already been proven of considerable value in throwing light on the probable mode of transmission of mental defect, although there is room for considerable refinement of method and thoroughness of enquiry in much of the investigation which has thus far been carried on. The intensive study of pedigrees has been the chief method of those whose aim it has been to show that mental defect is trans- mitted according to Mendel's law. Whatever may be the issue of the controversy over whether or not mental defects behave as mendelizing unit characters, insight into the question can only come by the thorough, critical and unbiased study of particular pedigrees. INHERITANCE OF MENTAL DEFECTS AND DISEASE 29 INHERITANCE OF FEEBLE-MINDEDNESS Feeble-mindedness may occur in various degrees from the lowest grades of idiocy to the condition occurring in those who are classed as "dull normal." In most of the feeble-minded there is a general lack of mental power, but exceptional cases occur in which highly developed special talents go along with marked deficiency in other respects. Blind Tom who possessed a phenom- enal aptitude for playing any piece of music he may have heard was practically an imbecile. Often these ' ' idiots savants ' ' possess remarkable memory, as in the case of the boy described by Lang- don Down, who could repeat verbatim pages from a book that he had once read. Some of the mathematical prodigies are otherwise mentally defective. Heron reports a boy, nearly an idiot, who when given a man's age could calculate quickly the number of minutes he had lived. Another boy could multiply any three figures with any three others almost as rapidly as they were written, although he was of a very low grade of mentality. From a eugenic standpoint the very lowest types of mental defectives, such as idiots, do not present a very difficult problem as they cannot care for themselves and are, therefore, usually kept as institutional charges where they cannot propagate their kind. Similarly the low grades of the feeble-minded are quite easily dealt with, so that there is a tendency for the very lowest types of mentality to disappear of themselves. The death rate of the lower grades of defectives is relatively high. Barr states that out of 625 mental defectives the largest number of deaths oc- curred between the tenth and twentieth years; "comparatively few passed the twenty-fifth year." Tuberculosis, epilepsy, pneumonia and diseases of the digestive system were the most frequent causes of death. Institutional life may have increased this death rate, as it only too often has done in homes for orphan children, but the lower grades of mental defect belong to poor physical stock which has a natural tendency to become extinct. It is the higher grades of feeble-mindedness which are eugenically and socially the greatest menace. Apparently normal and even 30 THE TREND OF THE RACE superficially bright, many of the moron class pass for people of average intelligence; or at least they do not attract general attention on account of their inferior intellect. This class con- stitutes a considerable proportion of human beings who being unable to support themselves are apt to become a public burden. It furnishes the criminal class with a considerable proportion . of its recruits, and it supplies a large number of prostitutes, a class which recent studies have shown to contain a high percentage of mentally inferior women. The feeble-minded tend to marry their own kind, or to produce children without the ceremony of marriage. In cities they tend to drift into association with vicious and criminal elements of the community and are often led into vice and crime more through inherent weakness of intellect and will than natural depravity of their own. In the country they frequently segregate into com- munities, where there is often intermarriage of related stocks which brings forth the latent defects of both sides. Such rural communities are characterized by poverty, alcoholism, sexual immorality and crime. The histories of several notorious feeble- minded families have been followed in recent years and they have yielded results of much interest and importance to students of social problems. One of the most noteworthy of these instances forms the subject-matter of Goddard's fascinating book, The Kallikak Family. The starting point of the investigation de- scribed in this book was made in the effort to trace the ancestry of a feeble-minded girl, Deborah, who had become an inmate of a home for the feeble-minded at Vineland, N. J. Deborah had been born in the almshouse. Her mother was feeble-minded and had had several other children by various men. The field worker, Miss E. S. Kite, who worked out the genealogy of the Kallikak family, succeeded in tracing its ancestry to a Martin Kallikak, a soldier in the revolutionary war. While at an inn Martin Kalli- kak made the acquaintance of a feeble-minded girl by whom he had a son named Martin Kallikak, Jr. Later Martin Kallikak married a normal woman of good family and raised several chil- dren. "All of the legitimate children of Martin, Sr., married into INHERITANCE OF MENTAL DEFECTS AND DISEASE 31 the best families ip. their state, the descendants of colonial gover- nors, signers of the Declaration of Independence, soldiers and even the founders of a great university. Indeed, in this family and its collateral branches, we find nothing but good representa- tive citizenship. There are doctors, lawyers, judges, educators, traders, landholders, in short, respectable citizens, men and women prominent in every phase of social life. They have scattered over the United States and are prominent in their communities wherever they have gone. Half a dozen towns in New Jersey are named from the families into which Martin's descendants have married. There have been no feeble-minded among them: no illegitimate children; no immoral women; only one man was sexually loose." In sharp contrast to this branch of the family stand the descend- ants of the feeble-minded girl. Of these 480 have been traced. "One hundred and forty-three of these," says Goddard, "we have conclusive proof were or are feeble-minded, while only forty-six have been found normal. The rest are unknown or doubtful. Of these descendants there have been 36 illegitimate, 33 sexually immoral, mostly prostitutes, 24 confirmed alcoholics, 3 epileptics, 82 died in infancy, 3 criminals, 8 kept houses of ill fame. The Kallikaks married into other families, usually of their own type, producing 1,146 individuals. "Of this large group," says God- dard, "we have discovered that two hundred and sixty- two were feeble-minded, while one hundred and ninety-seven are con- sidered normal, the remaining five hundred and eighty-one being still undetermined." The history of this family is a long tale of feeble-mindedness, alcoholism, poverty and prostitution. Children were numerous, but although infant mortality was high, the family increased rapidly in successive generations. Wherever the Kallikaks wandered, whether in the backwoods or in the slums of cities they retained the same characteristics. There are several Kallikak families, several of which, such as the Nams, Pineys, Hill Folk, Tribe of Ishmael, Zeroes, etc., show little but a monotonous repetition of the same history 32 THE TREND OF THE RACE of pauperism, alcoholism, harlotry and frequently graver forms of crime. Several investigators have drawn the conclusion that feeble- mindedness, which is an inherited trait in probably four-fifths of the cases, is transmitted as a recessive or partially recessive character, although it is not so evident that it behaves as a single unit in inheritance. Feeble-minded children sometimes come from normal parents, both of whom, however, may have been heterozygous for feeble-mindedness. Such children frequently result from the mating of a feeble-minded person with a normal individual, but when both parents are feeble-minded we find that in nearly all cases all the children are feeble-minded, as we should expect. The few recorded exceptions to this rule may be due to illegitimacy which is a not infrequent occurrence among this class, or to mistaken judgment of the parents' or the child's men- tal condition, or the fact that one parent may have been feeble- minded through accident or disease. Out of 41 matings in the Kallikak family in which both parents were feeble-minded there were 222 feeble-minded children and only two others that were considered normal. In his work on Feeble-mindedness Goddard states that of 482 children both of whose parents were feeble- minded all but six were reported to be feeble-minded also. The conclusion of Goddard that only mentally defective children are to be expected from two mentally defective parents which was announced by Davenport in 1911 as "the first law of inheritance of mental ability" was materially modified in a paper on the Hill Folk published by Danielson and Davenport in 1912. "The analysis of the data," according to the authors, "gives statistical support to the conclusion abundantly justified from numerous other considerations, that feeble-mindedness is no ele- mentary trait, but is a legal or sociological, rather than a biologi- cal term. Feeble-mindedness is due to the absence, now of one set of traits, now of quite a different set. Only when both parents lack one or more of the same traits do the children all lack the traits. So, if the traits lacking in both parenrs are socially impor- tant the children all lack socially important traits, i. e., are feeble- INHERITANCE OF MENTAL DEFECTS AND DISEASE 33 minded. If, on the other hand, the two parents lack different socially significant traits, so that each parent brings into the com- bination the traits that the other lacks, all of the children may be without serious lack and all pass for ' normal. ' ' This change of front is due to the discovery of several cases in which it was alleged that normal individuals were produced by parents both of whom were mentally defective. In fact the percentage of such cases was rather high. Considering both low grade and high grade feeble-mindedness together it was found that the percentage of defectives resulting from nulliplex matings (feeble-minded X feeble-minded) was only 77.3 per cent instead of 100 per cent. Matings of normal N N with feeble-minded n n give 37.5 per cent of defectives instead of none which would be expected even on Danielson and Davenport's own hypothesis. No explanation, however, of the latter discrepancy is offered. Chances for error in the investigation of the mentality of such communities as the Hill Folk are numerous as the authors seem to realize. "The problem that a field worker meets is to analyze each person in the pedigree in respect to his mental and moral traits from a complete acquaintance and from a comparison of the description of others. After all the evidence from personal visits, interviews with relatives, physicians, town officials, and reliable neighbors, and facts from court and town records have been collected, it is, even then, difficult to represent these characteris- tics exactly by the standard symbols which are used for the biological study of inherited traits. The distinction between an ignorant person who has normal mental ability and a high-grade feeble-minded one who has not, is often as impossible to make as that between medium and low grade feeble-mindedness." A careful examination of the Hill Folk will show that it exhibits little internal evidence of critical judgment, which is so necessary in dealing with the inheritance of mental defect. We find in examining the alleged matings of feeble-minded with feeble- minded that m one case all that is said of the mental state of .one consort is that he was "a wild immoral fellow"; of another, that he was "a plodding dull drinking fellow"; of another, that he 34 THE TREND OF THE RACE belonged to an "unintelligent family"; of another, that he was "a good workman, but very alcoholic," besides being "round- shouldered, narrow-chested, and in poor physical condition"; of another, that he was "a wild fellow," who broke into a house with intent to rape; of another, that he was "a shiftless drinking fel- low"; who later got into trouble for assaulting an officer; of another, that she was "shiftless and neurotic" and married a "shiftless and alcoholic man." When such persons are put down as feeble-minded our confidence in the proper classification of the matings becomes rudely shaken. The authors seem to consider shiftlessness as almost tantamount to feeble-mindedness, and if this is combined with alcoholism or sexual irregularity the judg- ment of the mental condition of the offender is apt to be particu- larly harsh. Estimates made after a "brief acquaintance," or from "descriptions of others," etc., when we are attempting to gauge the innate ability of people of little education, raised in a very unfavorable environment, and often with a constitution impaired by the use of alcohol, are very apt to be biased. One cannot take seriously conclusions based on evidence of this sort. It is of course not improbable a priori that feeble-mindedness may rest upon different forms of hereditary defect in different individ- uals. But that offspring of normal mentality may be produced from two parents who are hereditarily feeble-minded cannot be considered as established, I think, by the data of Danielson and Davenport's memoir.1 Notwithstanding the striking results obtained by Goddard the complete dominance of normal mentality over feeble-mindedness cannot be regarded as clearly established. In a very large number of cases in which characters obey the Mendelian rules of segrega- tion the organisms which are heterozygous for the characters in question show a more or less intermediate condition. Frequently, as in the dominance of polydactylism, there is a large degree of variation in the extent to which the dominant character is devel- 1 Dr. Tredgold who has carefully traced many pedigrees of feeble-minded families states that his experience bears out the conclusion " that the mating of two mentally defective individuals yields offspring who are all defective." INHERITANCE OF MENTAL DEFECTS AND DISEASE 35 oped. In the Fi generation of a normal and a polydactylous person the dominant character varies from complete development to entire absence of visible somatic expression. In view of the frequency of such facts as these, and considering also the contin- uous variability in the manifestation of mental qualities in gen- eral, it is inadmissible to draw the conclusion that the mating of a normal person, even of sound stock, with a mental defective will be productive of mentally normal offspring. The supposition that matings of this sort are productive of offspring whose mental characters tend to be more or less intermediate between those of their parents, is one that is quite in accord with the large body of facts that has accumulated on the inheritance of mental traits. There are cases in which the mating of a person of good intelligence with a person of subnormal mentality has resulted in fairly intelli- gent offspring, but unions of this kind as a rule are not productive of happy results. Normal progeny from such matings may repre- sent cases where for some reason, the dominance of one parent is unusually complete. But the many cases in which the matings of normal and defective are productive of a variable degree of mental defect in the offspring may be to a considerable degree the result of imperfect and variable dominance. It has been generally assumed by a number of American work- ers that where mental defectives arise from such matings the apparently normal person was heterozygous. To account for the large number of defectives thus arising it has to be supposed that people heterozygous for mental defect are very common. In Goddard's charts (Bull. Eugen. ~R.ec. Off. No. i) out of thirty matings of feeble-minded with presumably normal individuals all but two produced some feeble-minded offspring. In one of these (chart 6) three of the offspring, although they were marked nor- mal, had feeble-minded children. In the other family the only recorded mating among the presumably normal children was between an alcoholic woman and a man marked normal from another stock. This mating produced three normal and two feeble-minded children. It must be borne in mind, however, that the people marked 36 THE TREND OF THE RACE normal who mate with the feeble-minded are apt to be people of relatively poor stock. Probably many of them should be classed as high-grade morons, or at least people below the average grade of intellect. A considerable proportion of them carry the germs of other forms of defect and many of them are addicted to alcohol. The individuals designated in the charts as N, with perhaps more of courtesy than they really deserve, are scarcely comparable to the average of the general population. The charts, which are frequently chosen to illustrate striking cases, may give an exag- gerated notion of the frequency with which the matings of feeble- minded and normal produce feeble-minded offspring. However, when one goes over the matings in the Kallikak family where all the known matings are recorded, it will be found that feeble- minded offspring result from over two-thirds of the cases of nor- mal X feeble-minded matings. As we have seen, the mating of normal and feeble-minded among the Hill Folk gave 37.5 per cent of defective offspring. It is evident that we need not assume that our inheritance is vitiated to the extent that these studies seem to indicate if we grant that the dominance of mental normality is imperfect and variable. A tendency toward defectiveness is not only subject to various environmental influences both before and after birth, but it is combined with various other hereditary traits in different offspring which could scarcely fail to influence its expression. In the case of the insane diathesis we should expect that such in- fluences would have a profound effect on the manifestation of insanity, and in feeble-mindedness they might well produce differences which would determine whether or not a person were classed as feeble-minded or as normal. Both Heron and Pearson have contended with much reason that mental defect varies continuously. There are all grades from the lowest forms of idiots to high-grade morons, and there is no line which can be drawn between the latter and people of normal intelligence. Mental defectiveness is a matter of degree, varying like height, weight, physical strength, hair color and a number of other human qualities, in a manner that permits of no grouping INHERITANCE OF MENTAL DEFECTS AND DISEASE 37 into clearly defined classes. This fact does not necessarily indi- cate, as Pearson and Heron imply, that the various kinds of men- tal defect are not transmitted according to Mendel's law. It is not uncommon for segregation to occur in the usual Mendelian manner, although the character segregated may fluctuate so as to form a perfectly continuous series. Where the germinal factors manifest themselves somatically in characters that undergo a large amount of fluctuating variability, it naturally makes the demonstration of Mendelian segregation more difficult. Where, as in human beings, it is not feasible to employ experimental methods of analysis the difficulty of establishing Mendelian inheritance beyond cavil is greatly enhanced. One has to be guided by probabilities. The best that can be done is to select tentatively that hypothesis which gives the most plausible inter- pretation of the phenomena to be explained and is best in accord with what is known of the principles of inheritance followed in other fields. The very general occurrence of Mendelian inheri- tance among plants and animals of both primitive and highly organized types, and the remarkable success attained in explain- ing apparently non-conformable phenomena in terms of Mendel's law, creates a very justifiable presumption in favor of the conclu- sion that mental defects are transmitted according to the same laws that prevail so widely in the plant and animal world. That inheritance in man obeys the laws followed by organisms in gen- eral is also indicated by the undoubted appearance of types of Mendelian inheritance among human characteristics. But while the general occurrence of Mendelian inheritance in the organic world creates a presumption in favor of the conclusion that mental traits in man are transmitted according to the same rule, it must be conceded that there are certain characters whose mode of transmission seems to present a clear exception to this type of inheritance. It is true that such cases are comparatively rare. But there is a much larger number of cases which may follow Mendel's law, but in which it has never been proven that they actually do follow it. The successful extension of Mendelian analysis may justify us in shifting the burden of proof from the 38 THE TREND OF THE RACE shoulders of the Mendelian to those of his opponent. But if it is granted that a characteristic is transmitted according to Mendel's law it remains to be determined whether it presents a simple typical illustration of such transmission or follows a more complex type of Mendelian inheritance. Where several factors are in- volved, inheritance, though Mendelian, may present the appear- ance of the old-fashioned blending type, and should be dealt with in practice as though it were truly blending. Let us suppose for instance that feeble-mindedness depends not upon the loss of a single factor in the germ plasm, as com- monly assumed, but upon the presence of many such factors belonging to different allelomorphic pairs. The matings of two feeble-minded persons, thus bringing together two germ plasms generally tainted with defectiveness, would be expected to produce nothing but feeble-minded offspring. The matings of a normal with a feeble-minded person mightbe expected to produce variable results. Various factors affecting mentality in the normal individ- ual would doubtless tend to give rise to various degress of mental development. There would doubtless be also a considerable variation in the gametes contributed by the feeble-minded person. Some of the combinations of germ cells might be expected to produce a much better mental inheritance than others. Add to the congenital differences thus arising, other changes due to intra-uterine influence, circumstances affecting early childhood, and various other environmental factors, and we would get a varied group whose individual members would be classed as feeble-minded or normal, in proportions varying according to the standard of the person making the classification and the correct- ness of his judgment of the persons passed upon. Naturally the categories found could be interpreted as resulting either from the mating DRXRR or, in case all the offspring were considered normal, from DD X RR, the normal parent being designated after the usual fashion as DD or DR according to whatever assumption is necessary to bring the facts into accord with the theory. It is practically impossible to determine that a person is a DR unless one of his immediate parents is an RR. The presence of RR's in INHERITANCE OF MENTAL DEFECTS AND DISEASE 39 near relatives may establish a certain presumption in favor of his being heterozygous, but it does not prove it. Most of the facts of the inheritance of mental defect are con- formable to the hypothesis that such defect is dependent upon a number of factors instead of a single one. If the factors for heritable qualities are borne by chromosomes, as there is now such strong evidence for believing, is not every chromosome, or even every part of a chromosome the bearer of factors that influence mentality? Is it conceivable that there is a unit factor for mind located somewhere in a chromosome? There may be specialized parts of the chromosome complex whose influence on the develop- ment of the body is such that if they are modified they produce a heritable mental defect. It is of course possible that a change even in a small part of a chromosome would produce the defect in question. It is also possible that the development of superior ability may require the influence of a special part of an individual chromosome. But, since in the absence of both these chromosome regions we have mentioned, some type of mentality would doubt- less be produced if we should get an organism at all, it seems improbable a priori that the inheritance of general mental develop- ment would follow the simple Mendelian formula for the inheri- tance of two contrasted characters. In general, it may be prob- able that the lower types of mentality are recessive to the higher types much as lighter shades of coat color in mammals are usually recessive (or hypostatic) to the darker shades. While a feeble- minded person may be one whose infirmity is due to a particular modified factor he, or at least some feeble-minded persons, may owe the defect to more widespread damage to the germ plasm. I very much doubt if the facts concerning the inheritance of defect are as yet known with sufficient precision to warrant our trying to force them into simple Mendelian formulae. Of course, if two stocks differ by a single factor only, their progeny would be ex- pected to afford an illustration of simple Mendelian inheritance. But since the inheritance of any human family probably differs in very numerous ways from that of any other, and since any change in any part of the germ plasm could scarcely help having a certain 40 THE TREND OF THE RACE influence on the mentality of the individual concerned, it is a priori very improbable that the inheritance of mental defect is adequately describable in simple Mendelian terms. Most of the charts which group human beings categorically as feeble-minded or normal, as we class mice as gray or albino, take no account of the varied manifestations of mentality which really occur. They are liable to give a false or misleading appearance of simplicity which in fact has no existence. Whether the inheritance of mental defect follows simple or complex Mendelian formulas, or whether, indeed, it may not take place according to the older conceptions of blending inheritance, makes comparatively little difference in the practical treatment of hereditarily defective persons. The fact that defective mentality is strongly transmitted is established beyond the possibility of sane objection, and the particularly disastrous results that are pretty sure to follow from the mating of two mental defectives have certainly been made sufficiently impressive by the work of recent investigators. EPILEPSY Although Morel questioned its hereditary transmission, there is now a general consensus of opinion that epilepsy is often inherited. This dreaded malady occurs in a variety of forms (petit mal, grand mal, Jacksonian epilepsy, etc.) and is frequently associated with other forms of defect such as feeble-mindedness and insanity. Many cases are doubtless to be attributed to trauma, disease and alcohol, although a part of such cases prob- ably have a basis in inheritance as well. Concerning the propor- tion of cases attributable to heredity I can do no better than to quote from Barr (Mental Defectives, p. 212) "Hammond in a study of 171 epileptics, finds heredity a cause in 45, — 21 of these proving direct; Echeverria gives 26 per cent of 306 as descendants of epileptic parents. Delasiauve found the same in 33 out of 300 cases, and Herpin 10 in 68 cases. . . . Hamilton states that fully 50 per cent of his 980 cases are attributable to heredity. Cowers INHERITANCE OF MENTAL DEFECTS AND DISEASE 41 gives 35 per cent, and the 56 per cent of my table coincides with Spratling's record in 1,100 cases." The gravity of the disease (it is seldom curable) and its not infrequent connection with some of the worst crimes of violence, render the subject of its mode of transmission of especial impor- tance. The first serious attempt to show that epilepsy is inherited according to Mendel's law was made by Davenport and Weeks who followed up the pedigrees of many of the inmates of the New Jersey State Village for Epileptics at Skillman, N. J. The pedi- grees were obtained mainly by field workers and the data were analyzed according to the assumption that the matings fell into the classes which might be expected to occur in simple Mendelian inheritance. We quote the principal conclusions of the investiga- tion: "Epilepsy and feeble-mindedness show a great similarity of behavior in heredity supporting the hypothesis that each is due to the absence of a protoplasmic factor that determines complete nervous development." "When both parents are either epileptic or feeble-minded all their children are so likewise. "The conditions named migraine, chorea, paralysis, and ex- treme nervousness behave as though due to a simplex condition of the protoplasmic factor that conditions complete nervous development. . . . "When such a tainted individual is mated to a defective about half the offspring are defective. "When both parents are simplex . . . and 'tainted' about one-quarter (actually 30 per cent) are defective. "Normal parents that have epileptic offspring usually show gross nervous defect in their close relatives. "While we recognize that 'epilepsy' is a complex, yet there is a classical type numerically so preponderant that, in the mass, 'epilepsy' acts like a unit defect." Only one instance is given in which both parents were epileptic and it happened that both were feeble-minded also. Of their four children one was feeble-minded and died before 14; but the other 3 all developed epilepsy. In a subsequent paper by Weeks two 42 THE TREND OF THE RACE additional cases are given. In one of these there were 12 children who survived infancy (there being 4 stillborn). Of these three were epileptic, one was feeble-minded, two were migranous and six were neurotic. In the other case of the four surviving children (4 being stillborn) two were epileptic, one was feeble-minded and one " unclassified." In the two latter families nothing is recorded of the ages of the children except that they were over 14, although one would expect some explanation of the apparent discrepancy between the results and the theoretical expectations. If offspring from two epileptic parents may be simply migranous or neurotic the "character" that is transmitted must be subject to a remark- able degree of fluctuation. As the authors remark, feeble-mindedness and epilepsy appear to be closely related in their transmission. Nine matings in which both parents were feeble-minded gave one or more epileptics in each family, while a larger number of children were simply feeble- minded. In Week's data which includes all the cases in the paper by Davenport and Weeks there is given 15 matings in which one parent is epileptic and the other feeble-minded. Of the 55 off- spring who lived to be old enough to classify, 28 were epileptic, 26 feeble-minded, and i insane. Of the 27 matings in which both parents were either feeble-minded or epileptic all of the offspring above 14 about whose condition anything could be ascertained were classed as mentally abnormal, 43 being epileptic, 58 feeble- minded, one insane, 2 migranous, and 8 neurotic, — certainly a fearful harvest of undesirable progeny. Notwithstanding the hereditary association of epilepsy and feeble-mindedness, it cannot be maintained that these are heredi- tarily equivalent neuroses. Epilepsy is much more likely to appear when one or both of the parents are epileptic than when they are feeble-minded. When one parent was feeble-minded, and the other epileptic the proportion of epileptic to feeble- minded offspring of classifiable age was 28 epileptic to 26 feeble- minded, whereas when both parents were feeble minded the ratio was 7 epileptic to 29 feeble-minded. And the latter ratio is naturally much higher than the average, since only those families INHERITANCE OF MENTAL DEFECTS AND DISEASE 43 are considered in which there are some epileptic offspring. In many feeble minded stocks the proportion of epilepsy that ap- pears is quite small. On the other hand most pedigrees which include a considerable number of epileptics contain also more or less feeble-mindedness. In many pedigrees epilepsy shows a marked association with other neuropathic traits. As Weeks observes, "That there are more than five times as many epileptics as feeble-minded persons in these fraternities coming from matings where neither parent can be classed as normal, or called mentally defective, seems to indi- cate that neurotic or otherwise tainted conditions are more closely related to epilepsy than to feeble-mindedness." From the available data it is far from evident that epilepsy is inherited as a single Mendelian character. "It will be seen from the present evidence," Weeks admits, "that epilepsy cannot be considered as a Mendelian factor when considered by itself, but that epilepsy and feeble-mindedness are Mendelian factors of the recessive type in that their germ cells lack the determiner for normality," however we are to imagine such an entity to occur. The statement of Davenport and Weeks concerning epilepsy and feeble-mindedness that "each is due to the absence of a proto- plasmic factor that determines complete nervous development," and the further conclusion that "when both parents are either epileptic or feeble-minded all their offspring are so likewise," indicate that both these defects are due to the loss of the same factor. If so, epilepsy and feeble-mindedness should be heredi- tarily equivalent, which we have seen they are not. If they depend on the loss of different factors we should expect them to behave as independent characters in which case it would be per- fectly possible for the mating of a feeble-minded and an epileptic to produce normal children; in fact we should expect most children to be normal. Neither of the authors mentioned seems to be sufficiently impressed with the dilemma into which their interpretations land them. There are indications that epilepsy is often recessive and that it is frequently inherited in an alternative manner, but we must be guarded on both these points. Davenport 44 THE TREND OF THE RACE and Weeks seem to hold that while it is sometimes completely recessive, it is commonly only partly so, the simplex condition being indicated by milder forms of nervous disorder. For these authors almost any condition not quite normal may be indicative of the simplex type which includes neurotics, criminals, sex offenders, alcoholics, persons suffering from tuberculosis, migraine and apoplexy. In fact judging from the variety of so-called simplex types scarcely anyone would fail to qualify for this dis- tinction. Inasmuch as epileptics sometimes come from parents classed as normal the presumption is that in some stocks the dominance of the normal condition must be variable. It is not improbable that some strains tend to transmit a more malignant type of the disorder than others. But we need more data on this point. Despite the evident labor involved in the work of Daven- port and Weeks on the inheritance of epilepsy, the general results serve chiefly to emphasize the fact that very little is known about the subject. The uncritical way in which some of the work was done is clearly shown by the severe and somewhat acrimonious criticism to which it was subjected by Heron who pointed out numerous inaccuracies and contradictions throughout the original paper, as well as in the later contribution by Weeks. The evidence that epilepsy is transmitted as a single unit character is entirely inadequate; there is only a certain presump- tion derived more from analogy than the evidence hi hand, that it obeys Mendel's law; we are not clear how it is related in inheri- tance to feeble-mindedness, or other forms of defect. The evi- dence that epilepsy is strongly transmitted, however, is quite conclusive, whatever opinions may be held as to its precise mode of transmission. INSANITY For a long time it has been known that a proclivity to insanity may be inherited. At the same time it is universally conceded that people are often rendered insane through disease, injury or severe mental shock. Authorities vary remarkably in their INHERITANCE OF MENTAL DEFECTS AND DISEASE 45 estimations of the percentage of cases attributable to a hereditary- diathesis. Toulouse (Les Causes de la Folie) cites a number of authorities whose estimates vary from 15.5 per cent to 90 per cent. Some writers have placed the percentage of insanity due to heredity often as low as 3 per cent. The disagreements are about as great among recent writers as among the older ones. Tanzi (Mental Diseases, p. 61) states that, "The percentages of heredity among the insane are not very high. To succeed in making them large, it is necessary to take into account metamorphoses from a nervous disease, or even from any disease, to a nervous disease, to consider anomalies as morbid processes, and to allow all cases of dissimilar heredity to pass as true heredity." And after com- menting on the difficulty of securing data on the remote heredity of patients, Tanzi concludes: "If all these reservations be taken into consideration we arrive at the conclusion that, among the cases of insanity, the external act more widely than the internal." Paton in his work on Psychiatry tells us: "There is so much glib talk about the problems of heredity that the uninitiated are led to believe that a great deal is definitely known regarding the trans- mission of normal and abnormal mental traits; indeed, many alienists fail to appreciate our limitations in this respect. At present we do not possess an accumulation of carefully collected clinical data from which it is justifiable to draw any really val- uable deductions, nor can the meagre facts recorded in the aver- age clinical history be analyzed in such a way as to make clear their bearing upon the biological problems under discussion." Dr. Maudsley, who has given the subject particular attention, says: "The main value of the many doubtful statistics which have been collected by authors in order to decide how large a part hereditary taint plays in the production of insanity, is to prove that with the increase of opportunities of obtaining exact informa- tion the greater is the proportion of cases in which its influence is detected; the more careful and exact the researches the fuller is the stream of hereditary tendency which they disclose. Esquirol noted it in 150 out of 264 cases of his private patients; Burrows clearly ascertained that it existed in six-sevenths of the whole of 46 THE TREND OF THE RACE his patients; on the other hand, there have been some authors who have brought the proportion down as low as one-tenth. Some years ago I made a tolerably precise examination of the family histories of 50 insane persons, taken without any selection; there was a strongly marked predisposition in 14 cases — that is, in i in 3.57, and in 10 more cases there was sufficient evidence of family degeneration to warrant more than a suspicion of inherited fault of organization. In about half the cases then was there reason to suspect morbid predispositions. I have recently inquired into the histories of 50 more cases, all ladies, the opportunities being such as could only occur in private medical practice, and with these results: that in 20 cases there was the distinct history of heredi- tary predisposition; in 13 cases there was such evidence of it in the features of the malady as to beget the strongest suspicion of it; in 17 cases there was no evidence whatever of it." In some cases insane ancestry was denied, but was subsequently found to exist. Dr. Maudsley thus expresses his general conclusion as to the proportion of insanity due to heredity: "Suffice it to say broadly that the most careful researches agree to fix it as certainly not lower than one-fourth, probably as high as one-half, possibly as high even as three-fourths." (The Pathology of the Mind, $d edition.) Toulouse cites the estimates of various authors on the frequency of hereditary insanity as follows: Ellis 15.5 per cent. Morel 20 " " Esquirol (Statist, de Charenton) 24.50 " " Esquirol (Statist, de la maison d'lvry) 56.81 " " English Asylum Statistics 20 . 5 " " Prussian Asylum Statistics 27 . 96 " " Guislaid 45 " " Moreau 90 " " The following statements may be added from recent authors: Mott, "The large majority of the insane are hereditarily dis- posed." Clouston, "An evil nervous heredity commonly under- lies all other causes. Without its existence there would be very INHERITANCE OF MENTAL DEFECTS AND DISEASE 47 little unsoundness of mind in the world." Mercier (Sanity and Insanity.} "The stability or instability of a person's nervous arrangements depend primarily and chiefly upon inheritance." Bianchi (Textbook of Psychiatry], speaking of epilepsy, says "Heredity plays the greatest part, and in most cases is direct and similar." The great importance of the hereditary factor is emphasized by Heron who has made an elaborate statistical study of the inheritance of insanity based on data supplied by Dr. A. R. Urquhart, Superintendent of the James Murray's Royal Asylum, at Perth. "The records which have been compiled by Dr. Urquhart personally," says Heron, "are, therefore, of great value on account of their completeness, uniformity, and the long period over which they extend." The data showed that where both parents of an insane patient were sane, the ratio of the insane in all the offspring was 314:1179. With one parent insane the off- spring were 93 insane: 299 sane, and when both parents were insane there were 4 insane and 4 sane offspring. Since not all the offspring had reached the age at which latent insanity might be manifested, it is obvious that the relative proportion of insane offspring would be considerably higher. Taking account also of data collected by Pearson, Heron concludes that his results "indicate that if completed histories are taken 40 per cent of insane offspring of insane parents is not an over-estimate, and that in this memoir we have erred on the side of lessening the intensity of inheritance in taking 25 per cent of the offspring of insane persons to be insane." Insanity, according to Heron, is inherited to about the same extent as stature, intelligence, and a number of other traits. The way in which insanity is transmitted is rather more difficult to follow than the mode of inheritance of feeble-mindedness. Unlike the latter trait, insanity is seldom manifested until after the period of adolescence, and very frequently appears in middle life and even in old age. This circumstance creates a difficulty in the way of tracing the operation of any Mendelian factors which may be responsible for the insane diathesis, since a considerable 48 THE TREND OF THE RACE proportion of people fail to reach the age at which their hereditary taint might become manifest, and since also it is necessary to know the whole life history of the individuals concerned. Another difficulty is created by the fact that insanity may be produced by disease, trauma, alcohol, and various other causes. As Dr. Mott says, " Acquired syphilis, and in rare cases congeni- tal syphilis, are now acknowledged to be the cause of the most terrible form of insanity: general paralysis. This disease is fatal a few years after the onset of symptoms; heredity plays relatively an unimportant part in its causation; it affects all classes in pro- portion to their liability to syphilitic infection." The same authority states that "the cause of 20 per cent of the deaths in the London County Asylum is due to general paraly- sis," and that "we might add another 5 to 10 per cent of cases of brain disease dying in asylums with softening of the brain due directly or indirectly to syphilis." Guyer in speaking of general paresis states that "About twenty-two and five-tenths per cent of the first admissions to hospitals for the insane from city- dwelling men, and eight per cent from men living in the country in the state of New York are cases of this kind of insanity." Not to mention other diseases and the various other assignable reasons why people become insane, it is evident that a very con- siderable percentage of the cases of insanity must be set aside in studying the role of heredity in the causation of this malady. Still another difficulty confronts the student of heredity in the circumstance that a hereditary proclivity to insanity may be present, but owing to favorable conditions of life and the absence of events that might upset an unstable nervous constitution, a person may escape falling a victim to his inherited defect. It is probable that a fair proportion of the hereditarily insane might have been saved from their unfortunate fate had they been properly shielded from adverse influences. According to many statistics, alcohol ranks high among the causes of insanity, but in most cases alcohol may have afforded the occasion which led to the derangement of a naturally unstable constitution. There has accumulated a great deal of evidence that the worst victims of INHERITANCE OF MENTAL DEFECTS AND DISEASE 49 alcohol inherit a weak or neurotic physique. The insanity, there- fore, which is credited to the effect of alcohol is doubtless due in many cases to a vitiated inheritance. But it is practically im- possible to measure the relative potency of the hereditary and environmental factors in such cases. And the same statement may be made with respect to the insanity attributed to worry, shock, childbirth, the menopause and the numerous other circum- stances that unbalance the mind. There are many forms of insanity differing greatly in their symptoms. Melancholia presents a picture very different from acute mania and dementia praecox. In fact the ills of the mind are almost as varied as the ills of the body. Like the latter they vary continuously in their degree of manifestation from the minor troubles that make people nervous, "a little queer," moody, or excitable, to raging mania or complete dementia. The hereditary forms, while naturally less numerous, present so many degrees of manifestation and so many variations that a satis- factory classification is a matter of great difficulty. Some forms of insanity are closely associated with other diseases for which there is a strong heredity proclivity. This is the case with "epileptiform insanity," and to a less degree with "gouty insanity," "phthisical insanity," etc. To speak of heredi- tary insanity as a "unit character" due to a defect or loss of a single character in the germ plasm is about on a par with ascrib- ing all kinds of heritable physical anomalies to the same cause. It may be true that a single defect in the germ plasm may mani- fest itself in a variety of ways and in many degrees. But analogy with the transmission of the bodily traits should make us very cautious about considering the insane diathesis as a unit char- acter of essentially the same kind in the different cases in which it is manifested. Charts of the inheritance of insanity show that the afflicted individuals exhibit a great diversity of symptoms in successive generations. The possibility must, therefore, be borne in mind that the germ plasm of neurotic stocks may be affected in a variety of ways, and that the varied exhibitions of disordered mentality are the result, in part at least, of this circumstance. 50 THE TREND OF THE RACE The first serious attempt to study the inheritance of insanity in the light of Mendel's law was made by Cannon and Rosanoff who carefully collected data from the families of n insane pa- tients in the Kings Park State Hospital, New York. The authors employed the method of sending out field workers to study the families of the patients, and they were thus able to secure much more reliable data than that which is usually collected by hospi- tals and asylums. It was concluded that insanity behaves as a Mendelian recessive character. The expectations of this hypoth- esis that matings of insane with insane (RRXRR) would give nothing but insane offspring is quite consistent with the results. Out of three such matings yielding 16 offspring, 10 were neuro- pathic, 5 died in infancy, and data concerning the remaining one were wanting. The mating of normal persons heterozygous for neuropathic defect, with neuropathies is represented, according to the authors, "by 19 matings with a total of 129 offspring. Theoretically one-half of these should be neuropathic, and one-half normal, but capable of transmitting the neuropathic make-up to their progeny. The charts show: 45 neuropathic, 14 normal with neuropathic offspring, 20 normal without offspring, 27 normal with normal offspring, 20 died in childhood, and concerning 3 data were uncertain." This is not a very close approximation to the Mendelian expectation, under the assumption that we are dealing with DRXRR matings. Upon what basis is one of the parents con- sidered heterozygous for the neuropathic taint? Evidently the authors have counted as heterozygous all those apparently nor- mal persons who have produced neuropathic offspring when mated with a neuropathic person. This procedure affords a perfectly clear case of begging the question, for it assumes the truth of the conclusions to be established, and entirely overlooks the possibility previously pointed out, that the dominance of the normal condition may be variable or imperfect. On the assump- tion of Mendelian inheritance the only reliable index of the heterozygous make-up of the normal parent is that one of the INHERITANCE OF MENTAL DEFECTS AND DISEASE 51 parents is a neuropathic person (RR). On looking through the charts I find that only three of the 19 cases fulfill this condition. If one of the parents has a brother, sister or other near relative who is neuropathic, the assumption that this parent is heterozy- gous is only probable. In going over the charts for cases of this kind I find a record in the alleged DRXRR matings of only five instances. In all the other cases the conclusion is apparently based on no evidence at all beyond the fact that it is necessary to assume it in order to make the facts come out in accordance with the hypothesis. The third class of cases discussed, the matings of a homozygous normal with a double recessive, DD X RR is represented according to the authors, by "five matings with a total of 18 offspring. Theoretically all the offspring of such matings should be normal, but capable of transmitting the neuropathic make-up to their progeny. The charts show: 8 normal with neuropathic offspring, 7 normal with normal offspring, 2 normal without offspring, and i died in childhood." The assumption that one parent is a homozygous dominant is naturally somewhat unsafe. From the nature of the case we can never know that this is correct, but from what has just been quoted it may be inferred that this assumption is made because all the children are normal, and some of the grandchildren neuropathic. Of course some of these cases cited may have been DRXRR matings which happened to have only normal (DR) children. What the authors have done is to divide up the cases in which normal and neuropathic mate into DD X RR and DR X RR in such a way as to best make the results fall into line with the theoretical expectations. That other interpretations are not improbable is evident from what has previously been said. The alleged DRXDR matings turn out more in accordance with expectations since seven matings with 54 offspring yielded 12 neuropathic, and 34 normal individuals, and 8 who died in childhood. A subsequent paper by Rosanoff and Orr deals in much the same way with a larger amount of data, represented by 73 pedi- 52 THE TREND OF THE RACE grees including 206 matings and 1097 offspring. The same con- clusions are expressed as to Mendelian inheritance of insanity. The authors recognize that while neuropathic traits are recessive, "various clinical neuropathic manifestations bear to one another the relationship of traits of various degrees of recessiveness; in a most marked way recoverable psychoses, though recessive as compared with the normal condition, are dominant over epilepsy or allied disorders." Traits on the same level of recessiveness, but differing greatly in their clinical manifestations may bear to one another the rela- tionship of "neuropathic equivalents." This, if true, makes Mendelian formulae more elastic, but it increases the difficulty of proving that the inheritance is, in fact, Mendelian. The authors show a commendable caution about concluding that the inheritance of insanity follows simple Mendelian rules. They say, "It seems necessary to assume that the normal devel- opment and function of the nervous system is dependent not upon a single unit determinant in the germ plasm, but upon a group of determinants, and that the number of units lacking from that group, determines the special type of defect to be observed clinically. It may be recalled that a similar assumption has been found necessary for the understanding of the inheritance of other Mendelian characters, notably various shades of skin pigmenta- tion." With commenting on the fact that it is not proven that the inheritance of skin color is Mendelian, although it is possible on certain assumptions to show how it might be so, or at least that it is not certain that it is not so, there seems to be no special reason for the particular conclusion, "That the number of units lacking from the germ plasm determines the special type of defect to be observed clinically." Analogy with Mendelian inheritance elsewhere would seem to make it more probable that the type of defect produced would depend upon the particular units of the germ plasm affected, and not merely upon their number. Perhaps the authors, who manifest an open-minded and candid attitude in dealing with the problem, would not object to this interpreta- 53 • tion. It certainly seems remarkable that many kinds of germinal defect would give rise to the same sort of neuropathic disorder. If so, one person might lack something necessary to normality and another person might lack something else, and yet the union of these persons might supply all that was needed to make a normal product. This would be clearly possible if the defects in question were completely recessive. One might expect, therefore, in view of the varied nature of hereditary insanity, that two insane, or at least two neuropathic persons might occasionally, if not frequently, produce a normal individual. The probability of such an occurrence would obviously depend upon the number of affected units in the germ plasm of the two persons, and the genetic similarity of the two types of hereditary defect. It would be of especial interest to compare the matings of similar neuro- pathic defectives on the one hand and dissimilar types on the other. Whether or not the latter types especially may not yield normal offspring we are not at present sufficiently assured. Mat- ings of neuropathic and neuropathic, it is true, will produce a large proportion of neuropathic offspring. In the three cases of this kind given by Cannon and Rosanoff the parents were simply designated neuropathic, a term used to cover hysteria, feeble- mindedness, epilepsy, convulsions or other pronounced manifes- tations, and the children of these matings which were all marked neuropathic showed insanity, epilepsy, convulsions and neuro- pathic states not further specified. In a paper by Rosanoff and Orr 17 such matings are recorded, resulting in 75 children of whom ii died in infancy, 54 of the remaining 64 are given as "neuro- pathic," 10 being designated normal. In these 10 the authors state that in 2 cases " the neuropathic constitution is not insan- ity," and that the 8 others "have not reached the age of in- cidence." There are several cases in which insane parents have been reported to have produced sane offspring. Pearson's family records give 66 per cent, insane offspring when both parents are insane. Only those children were classed as sane who reached an age of 50 years without developing insanity. Acquired insanity of 54 THE TREND OF THE RACE the parents was not excluded in the statistics and the "sane" offspring may have been neuropathic in other ways. Heron's data on this point are meagre and do not furnish information as to the age of the sane offspring, so it is not certain that they reached the period at which insanity would be devel- oped. Goring gives three matings between insane parents, with 19 offspring, all sane, but we know little of their age beyond the fact that they were convicts. Several writers have brought forward evidence that particular types of insanity tend to run in families. Berze reports a case of dementia praecox in a father and three sons; a case of a man, his daughter and her two children and several other instances with two or more in each family. Dr. Schuster from a statistical investigation of cases in the London County Asylums concludes that "a periodically insane son or daughter is more likely to be associated with a periodically insane mother or father than with one differently affected," and a similar association occurs between insane brothers and sisters. In delusional insanity "The tend- ency for the affliction to run in families is very marked" and "in the incidence of the primary dementia of adolescence there is a strong correlation between members of the same co-fraternity." Strohmayer finds that manic-depressive insanity frequently reappears in much the same form. "Es gibt kaum ein Krank- heitsbild, wo so einmutig die Macht des Erbfaktors anerkannt wird, wie beim manisch-depressiven Irresein. Alle Autoren heben den auffallend grossen Prozentsatz des durch Geisteskrankheit direkt oder indirekt belasteten Kranken dieses Schlages hervor. Die Angaben schwanken zwischen 75 und 85%. Ebenso stim- men alle Beobachter darin iiberein, das innerhalb des manisch- depressiven Gebeites die gleichartige verbliiffend iiberweigt." Many alienists from Morel to the present time have empha- sized the extreme variability of the manifestations of mental defect and disease, and have found little tendency for the same type of insanity to repeat itself in successive generations. That particular forms of insanity are rarely transmitted as such is a doctrine which has been rather more frequently espoused in INHERITANCE OF MENTAL DEFECTS AND DISEASE 55 France than elsewhere, while in Germany, especially in the last two decades, the belief in a greater fidelity of transmission has become somewhat more prevalent. The diverse results obtained by different investigators on this question are in part due to different categories of classification adopted. It is generally recognized that a satisfactory classification of the varied forms of insanity has not yet been attained. In addition to a few broad types of insanity that are generally recognized there are so many cases whose grouping is at present an arbitrary proceeding that a certain amount of disagreement among different investigators is inevitable. However, with a closer study of symptoms and a more careful comparison of the insane who are members of the same family it is coming to be recognized by an increasing num- ber of writers of all countries that there are some types of insanity which show a fair amount of constancy in their mode of trans- mission. This is in part due to the elimination in such studies of cases which are caused by external factors, such as syphilis, which is now known to be responsible for general paresis and a number of cases of insanity manifested in other ways. Apparently,* therefore, along with a considerable range in the manifestation of "neuropathic equivalents" there is a certain tendency for special types of mental disorder to perpetuate them- selves.1 It is a matter of great difficulty to determine how far different people with the -same inheritance of neuropathic traits might come to differ in their symptoms. It is unfortunate that identical twins are not more common, since observation on a number of such twins with a neuropathic inheritance would throw much light on this problem. There are a few cases of very similar types of insanity recorded in twins who were apparently identical (See Galton's Inquiries 1 Among those who have emphasized the predominance of "similar" heredity are Griesinger, Ziehen, Albrecht, Sioli, Harbolla, Vorster, Schlub, Damkohler, Forster, Kreichgauer, Jolly, Pilcz, Berze, Myerson, Frankhauser. Of those holding to the predominance of "dissimilar" heredity may be mentioned Ribot, Demay, Urquhart, Schtile, Krafft-Ebing, Kraepelin (in earlier writings), Salgo, Leidesdorff, Moebius, Jung, Eibe, Grassmann, Krause, Lundborg, Liepmann, Bing, Krause, Croq, D6j6rine, Bumke. 56 THE TREND OF THE RACE into Human Faculty). One case of two twin brothers reported by Dr. Moreau is sufficiently striking to deserve quotation: "Physi- cally the two young men are so nearly alike that the. one is easily mistaken for the other. Morally, their resemblance is no less complete and is most remarkable in its details. Thus, their dominant ideas are absolutely the same. They both consider themselves subject to imaginary persecutions; the same enemies have sworn their destruction, and employ the same means to effect it. Both have hallucinations of hearing. They are both of them melancholy and morose; they never address a word to any- body, and will hardly answer the questions that others address to them. They always keep apart, and never communicate with one another. An extremely curious fact which has frequently been noted by the superintendents of their section of the hospital and myself is this: From time to time, at very irregular intervals of two, three, and many months, without appreciable cause, and by the purely spontaneous effect of their illness, a very marked change takes place in the condition of the two brothers. Both of them, at the same time, and often on the same day, rouse them- selves from their habitual stupor and prostration; they make the same complaints, and they come of their own accord to the physi- cian, with an urgent request to be liberated. I have seen this strange thing occur, even when they were some miles apart, the one being at Bicetre, and the other living at Saint-Anne."1 According to Schlub three-fourths of the cases of insanity occurring in siblings is of the same type. The percentages of like 1 Bajenoff (Quelques r6flections sur les folies g6mellaires et familiales, Arch. internal, de Neur., n, s. I. 213-218, 1913), cites a number of cases of similar in- sanity in twins; in one case reported by Harandon de Montyel two twin girls, apparently identical, were married on the same day and became pregnant at about the same time. Both were taken with delirium in early pregnancy and were con- fined separately in the same asylum without either being apprised of the condition of the other. Their insanities were pronounced "absolutely identical"; their hallucinations were much the same and their spells occurred at the same time. They were delivered within 48 hours of each other and soon afterward the insanity in both subsided. Schultes (Ueber Zwillingspsychosen, Allg. Zelt.f. Psychiat., 1913, 348-364), reports on five cases of insanity in twins; four of these which were very similar twins showed the same types of insanity. INHERITANCE OF MENTAL DEFECTS AND DISEASE 57 forms of insanity was found to be higher (90 per cent) among brothers than among sisters (70 per cent) or between brother and sister (68 per cent) . Where insanity occurred in twins it was of the same type whether the twins were of the same sex or not. (Zeit.f. Psychiat. 66, 514-541, 1909). Similar findings have been recorded by H. Krueger (Zeit. f. d. gesamte N enrol, u. Psychiat. 24, 113, 1914). Is insanity transmitted as a typically recessive trait? In Huntington's chorea it is generally conceded that we have a character that usually behaves as a typical dominant. But most of the writers who have considered insanity from the Mendelian standpoint conclude, often in a guarded and tentative manner, that most forms are recessive. One fact that on the face of it indicates that such is the case is that insanity and other neuroses frequently arise in families in which the parents are normal or slightly neuropathic, and that the frequency of such cases is increased when the presence of insane or neuropathic relatives points to the heterozygous constitution of the parents. When, however, we are dealing with a character so protean as the "neuropathic constitution" is commonly assumed to be, this evidence becomes somewhat less convincing. The neuropathic constitution may take a relatively mild form in the parents in which it escapes being recognized, while in the offspring it may take the form of insanity. A trait essentially dominant will, if highly variable in its manifestations and es- pecially if the degree of its manifestation is largely dependent upon environmental factors, closely simulate a recessive trait in its mode of occurrence. To speak of insanity as a defect and as, therefore, due to the loss of one or more determiners in the germ plasm is misleading. Properly, in our view, it is neither the one nor the other. It is more probable that the hereditary basis of insanity is something positive, a definite pathological factor or factors working havoc with the normal development of the organism, and which may be kept from exercising to the full its deteriorating effects by an admixture of healthy germ plasm. How far insanity is the prod- 58 THE TREND OF THE RACE uct of specific neurotoxins, it is at present impossible to say. There is little in the symptoms of insanity that would lead us to conclude that it is the expression of mere weakness or lack of something, any more than is rheumatism or the gout. It is one of the unfortunate influences of the presence-absence theory that it leads people to jump to the conclusion that traits may be due to absences and hence recessive when there is no clear evidence of this from the facts in hand. Imperfect dominance is sufficiently plentiful among organisms in general to make us expect it more or less frequently in the inheritance of neuropathic traits. Davenport and Weeks, as we have seen, conclude that it occurs in the transmission of epilepsy and related neuroses. An examination of the charts in Rosanoff and Orr's paper on the inheritance of insanity shows that all the facts may plausibly be interpreted according to the same hypothesis. The frequency with which the matings of normal and neuropathic parents produce neuropathic offspring is rather better in accord with this view. On the assumption of complete recessiveness Rosanoff and Orr are led to the view that over 31 per cent of apparently normal people are carriers of neuropathic defect. In most of the cases given by Rosanoff and Orr where the mating of a normal and a neuropathic resulted in neuropathic offspring, it was not possible to show that the normal parent was in fact heterozygous; he was simply assumed to be so on account of the character of the off- spring. It is evident that if neuropathic traits are imperfectly dominant, or not completely recessive (which is the same thing) it is not necessary to assume that the heterozygous condition is nearly so prevalent. Matings of apparently normal stock with one that is neuropathic are so often followed by unfortunate results that one is naturally led to suspect that a partial blending or direct contamination, is a phenomen of common occurrence. THE ALLEGED PRINCIPLE OF "ANTEDATING" OR "ANTICIPATION" Dr. F. W. Mott has pointed out what he considers to be a principle of general application in neuropathic inheritance, INHERITANCE OF MENTAL DEFECTS AND DISEASE 59 namely, the so-called process of "antedating" or "anticipation." "I have found," he says, "that there is a signal tendency in the insane offspring of insane parents for the insanity to occur at an earlier age and hi a more intense form in a large proportion of cases; for the form of insanity is usually either congenital imbecility or the primary dementia of adolescence, which gen- erally is an incurable disease." The consequence of this alleged tendency is that, with increasing age, the offspring of insane parents become less liable to insanity. "Besides the fact," continues Dr. Mott, "that this shows Nature's method of elimi- nating unsound elements of a stock, it has another important bearing, for it shows that after the age of twenty-five there is a greatly decreasing liability of the offspring of insane parents to become insane, and therefore on the question of advising marriage of the offspring of an insane parent this is of great importance. Sir George Savage recently said in his presidential address that this statistical proof of mine accorded with his own experience, and that if an individual who had such an hereditary taint had passed the age of twenty-five, and never previously shown any signs, he would probably be free, and he would offer no objection to marriage." If on the basis of the principle of anticipation advice is to be given on the subject of marriage, it is well to be assured that the principle rests upon a firm foundation. Dr. Mott arrived at his conclusion in the following way: He examined the age at the time of the first attack of insanity of 508 pairs of parents and off- spring. In 47.8 per cent of the offspring the first attack occurred before the age of twenty-five. "In 299, or 58.8 per cent, of the 508 pairs of insane parents and offspring, the first attack in the offspring occurred at an age twenty or more years earlier than in the parents; of these 299 instances 73 of the offspring were imbeciles." Professor Karl Pearson hi a letter written to Nature (Nov. 21, 1912) showed that Mott's principle of anticipation involved a statistical fallacy. It was pointed out that a man or woman who develops insanity at an early age is not so likely to become a 60 THE TREND OF THE RACE parent as one who becomes insane at a later age. The parents, therefore, would constitute a group selected on the basis of age. More detailed criticism of "antedating" was made by Heron (Biometrica, 10, p. 356) who showed that Mott's data made no allowance for the probability that many of the normal siblings of the insane offspring of insane parents might subsequently develop insanity. Also the fact that parents and offspring who happen to be insane at nearly the same time would be apt to be in the same asylum introduces a third source of error, because in such a case we should be apt to find insanity developing late in the par- ents and early in the offspring. Considering all these statistical fallacies involved, the principle of anticipation cannot present much claim to acceptance. It would indeed be unfortunate if advice concerning marriage should be given on the basis of so questionable a generalization. SHOULD STRENGTH MATE WITH WEAKNESS? In Bulletin No. 9 of the Eugenics Record Office the statement is made that the "proper mating" of a neuropathic person "is with a person in whose ancestry there is no trace of neuropathic ancestry," and that "if only the matings be carefully made so that the immediate children of the neuropathic person shall avoid marrying a consort with a neuropathic taint, there will be no neuropathic children or grandchildren, and hardly a greater chance of neuropathic great-grandchildren than though the .marriage in question had not been made." "The case may well arise," Dr. Davenport continues, . . . "where a mentally vigo- rous man wishes to marry a socially attractive and beautiful, though defective, woman. Such a marriage may be, from the standpoint of Eugenics, as from any social viewpoint, quite per- missible." And in speaking of the marriage of epileptics, it is further stated that "there may arise cases where the marriage of an epileptic to a person of mentally untainted stock would be, on the whole, desirable." The advice that strength may mate with weakness has been INHERITANCE OF MENTAL DEFECTS AND DISEASE 61 severely criticized, and justly so, by Pearson, Heron, Saleeby, and others. Granting that mental defect is transmitted as a single recessive unit character, the mating of a duplex normal with a defective, while producing normal children, nevertheless makes them carriers of the defect. Should two such carriers mate, one-fourth of their offspring would manifest the defect; should the carriers follow the "eugenic rule" and mate with defectives, half of their offspring would be defective. Matings of normal and defective simply sow the seed for future trouble. Should the estimate of some of the workers of the Eugenics Record Office prove correct, namely, that over 30 per cent of the population is heterozygous for mental defect, the direct danger of such matings is very considerable. Certain defects are distributed widely enough as it is, without our advising marriages that would simply make the situation worse. Nothing could be more inconsistent with everything we know of heredity than the ill-considered advice that strength may mate with weakness. And besides we have very little assurance that the normal condition dominates mental defectiveness to the extent that is usually assumed. I have been continually surprised in reading papers on the Mendelian inheritance of mental defect to find how placidly and uncritically the assumption is made that normal mentality behaves as a typical dominant. It does not seem to occur to most of those who have treated the subject that the children of a mental defective are apt to be severely injured by the incompletely suppressed traits of that parent, however free from taint the ancestry of the other parent may have been. And this in spite of the fact that Mendelian literature is full of cases of incomplete and variable dominance! Surely from the facts at our disposal no one is justified in feeling very confident of the complete dominance of mental normality. The injury result- ing from the mating of mental soundness with mental weakness may be very direct, manifesting itself in the production of chil- dren mentally inferior or suffering from various neuropathic taints. It is not at all unlikely that many of them would actually be ranked as mental defectives or be caused by untoward circum- 62 THE TREND OF THE RACE stances to fall victims to insanity. Not improbably the very large number of cases in which the mating of normal and feeble-minded produce children of the latter class are due not so much to the heterozygous character of the putative normals as to partial blending, or irregular and incomplete dominance. As our previous discussion has shown, where one parent is feeble-minded or insane, and the other normal, it is quite exceptional for all the children to be free from the mental taint of the afflicted parent. SYPHILIS AND MENTAL DEFECT The role of syphilis in the causation of feeble-mindedness, epilepsy, and other forms of mental defect is still uncertain, despite a considerable amount of investigation devoted to the subject. Formerly syphilis was not considered to be accountable for a large percentage of mental defect, because only a small proportion of defectives were found to manifest any obvious signs of the disease. Since the discovery of the Wassermann and other tests it has been possible to detect syphilitic infection in numerous cases in which the disease was not revealed by any external symptoms. The Wassermann test, however, is apt to give very different results according to the particular way in which it is carried out. It is agreed that the absence of the positive Wasser- mann does not necessarily indicate the absence of syphilis, but a positive test except in the presence of a few other diseases or unusual conditions is held to constitute a strong proof that syphilis is present. Applications of the Wassermann tests to mental defectives have yielded surprisingly discrepant results. Goddard, in his work on feeble-mindedness, states that less than i per cent show syphilitic infection. Thomson, Boas, Hjort and Leschly in studying 2,061 mental defectives found that only 1.5 per cent gave a positive Wassermann reaction. Lippmann found 9 per cent of positive reactions in one asylum, and 13 per cent in another. Dean found that out of 330 idiots of various ages in Potsdam 15 per cent were syphilitic. Krober obtained positive results in 21.4 per cent of 262 idiots.1 1 Reference may also be made to the work of Atwood and Brofenbrenner who by INHERITANCE OF MENTAL DEFECTS AND DISEASE 63 One of the highest percentages of positive reactions was found by Fraser and Watson. These workers not only applied the test in a thorough manner, but they studied the family history of the patients, and applied the Wassermann test also to other members of the family. Dr. Fraser examined the blood sera of 99 mentally defective and epileptic children. Excluding 10 cases of epilepsy where no apparent mental defect existed, and "consider- ing only the 89 cases where defect was present, it was found that 40 gave a positive reaction, or 44.9 per cent. ; 38 gave a negative reaction, or 42.4 per cent.; and n gave a doubtful reaction, or 12.3 per cent." In several cases in which the child gave a negative or doubt- ful reaction it was found that a positive Wassermann could be obtained from some other member of the same family, thus affording evidence that syphilitic infection was or had been present in the child examined. Considering all the evidence in hand it is probable that the percentage of syphilitic infection was over 57 per cent. An examination by Dr. Watson of the blood serum of 105 cases of mental deficiency, mainly feeble-mindedness, of varying ages up to 17 years showed that 51 gave a positive reaction, 45 gave a negative reaction, and 9 were doubtful. As several of the negative or doubtful cases had relatives that gave a positive reaction, it is probable that the percentage of syphilis in Dr. Watson's group of defectives was over 50 per cent. "On grouping the defective and epileptic children together, it is found that of the 205 cases examined syphilitic infection is present in 126 or 60 per cent." Should syphilis be found to play so large a part in the pro- using the Noguchi system in the examination of 204 idiots found 14.7 per cent that gave a positive reaction. Raviart, Breton and Petit in examining various cases of mental defect aside from parasyphilitic cases obtained positive reactions in 30 to 40 per cent of all cases of idiocy, epilepsy and imbecility. A high proportion of positive cases was found in various forms of insanity by Rosanoff, Wiseman and Noguchi. (See Noguchi, Serum Diagnosis and Luetin Reaction, Philadelphia, 1912.) Kaplan (Serology of Nervous Diseases, 1914), found a positive Wassermann in 4 out of 38 epileptics and a negative reaction in most cases of dementia praecox and manic-depressive insanity, and he emphasizes the danger of reporting too many cases of a positive reaction. 64 THE TREND OF THE RACE duction of mental defect as the researches of Fraser and Watson indicate, it would necessitate considerable modification of the views that have been expressed regarding the so-called Mendelian transmission of epilepsy and feeble-mindedness. Very many of the charts picturing such inheritance are quite consistent with the hypothesis that we are dealing with the transmission of an infection which produces effects of various degrees of severity. Where both parents are infected we should expect that the chil- dren would be severely afflicted. The matings of normal and defective, however, do not turn out quite as we should expect on the theory of infection. It is highly desirable that future studies of the inheritance of mental defect may make use of thorough tests to eliminate the possibly very large factor of syphilis. This has not been done in any of the work published by the Eugenics Record Office, and it remains to be seen what basis will be left for the various laws that have been laid down for the inheritance of mental defect when this precaution has been taken. THE NOTION OF DEGENERACY Since Morel published his celebrated treatise on Degeneracy in 1857, it has been a prevalent idea that many forms of defect and disorder are not transmitted as such, but may give place in the descendants to abnormalities of the most varied kind. What is transmitted is held to be a degenerate constitution which may be manifested in diverse ways according to circumstances. " He- redity," says Morel, "does not mean the very disorders of the parents transmitted to the children with the identical mental and physical symptoms observed in the progenitors. It means trans- mission of organic dispositions from parents to children. Alien- ists have, perhaps, more frequent occasion than others for ob- serving not merely this heredity transmission, but likewise various transformations which occur in the descendants. They are aware that simple neuropathy (nervous tendency) of the parents may produce in the children an organic disposition result- ing in mania or melancholia, nervous affections which in turn may INHERITANCE OF MENTAL DEFECTS AND DISEASE 65 produce more serious degeneracy and terminate in the idiocy or imbecility of those who form the last link in the chain of hered- itary transmission." Dr. Moreau, a prominent member of the same school, tells us that "it is not in the identity of functions, or of organic or intellectual facts that we must seek the application of the law of heredity, but at the very fountain head of the organism, in its inmost constitution. A family whose head has died insane or epileptic does not of necessity consist of lunatics and epileptics, but the children may be idiotic, paralytic, or scrofulous. What the parents transmit to the children is not insanity, but a vicious constitution which will manifest itself under various forms in epilepsy, hysteria, scrofula, rickets, etc. This is what is to be understood by hereditary transmission." The same idea is emphasized by Fere in La Famille Neuro- pathique. "Le plus souvent, la maladie qui se transmet se trans- forme; c'est ainsi qu'on voit succeder la manic, la melancolie, Fimbecillite, Fidiotie." The lack of fidelity which characterizes the transmission of defect is regarded as a result of the "dissolu- tion of heredity" occasioned by a lack of developmental energy (defaut d'energie embryogenique). "La degredation de la puis- sance embryogenique, demontree par la frequence de malfor- mations variees, et en fin de compte par la sterilite dans les races degenerees permet de comprendre a la fois 1'heredite morbide dissemblable, et 1'heredite morbide collaterale." But, as Fere hastens to add, the sequences of degenerative changes do not follow without rhyme or reason. There is a more or less definite grouping of symptoms constituting a family of related defects. "La degenerescence a ses lois comme 1'evolution normale; quelle que soit sa cause, elle se manifesto sous un petit nombre de formes communes." If degeneration is due to a general defect of developmental energy or the presence of factors which exercise an injurious influence upon the evolution of the embryo, its protean manifes- tations need not surprise us. One of the most conspicuous fea- tures of the results of experimentation upon the effects of external 66 THE TREND OF THE RACE agencies on embryonic development is the great variety of anom- alies which are produced in response to any one agency. Fere's interest in the causation of innate defect led him to consider the problem of how development may be influenced by external factors, and accordingly we find the author of the Pathology of the Emotions and various other treatises on abnormal psychology and nervous disorders, writing numerous notes upon the effect of all sorts of agencies upon the development of the egg of the domestic fowl. Injurious agencies generally effect a retardation of development and the production of various anomalies; more rarely there are produced individuals defective in certain respects but presenting in general a superior development. There is a certain parallelism between the manifestations of morbid heredity and the pathological effects of injurious agencies. Just as certain substances produce a great variety of teratological effects in the developing embryo, so certain hereditary factors result in very diverse characters in the adult organism. The toxins of a chronic disease such as syphilis produce a bewildering multiplicity of symptoms, and it should occasion no surprise that certain inherited tendencies should do likewise. If there be hereditary factors whose effect on development is to produce a general retardation and deterioration after the manner of the toxic influence of some chemical substance, the manifestations of these factors in successive generations might take the form of stigmata of degenerations as varied as those which occur in many families of defective human beings. Fere speaks of such phenom- ena as indicative of "the dissolution of heredity," as if we were dealing with something which weakened or broke up the force of embryogenic energy. Perhaps the germ plasm of certain individ- uals may contain elements which tend to destroy the fidelity of hereditary resemblance, although it may be questioned whether this would in strictness be a dissolution of heredity. It is, of course, possible to maintain that the multiplicity of degenerative phenomena in human beings is the result of various unit factors each of which tends to produce a particular kind of defect. However true this may be in regard to certain character- INHERITANCE OF MENTAL DEFECTS AND DISEASE 67 istics, it cannot, I think, be considered as a probable general conclusion in the light of our present knowledge. For many of the so-called stigmata of degeneracy there is little or no positive evidence of transmission as particular characters apart from the general complex. The apparent substitution of one anomaly for another and the fact that certain forms of anomalies are apt to be correlated with certain others, although not showing a constant correlation, point to the conclusion that in most anomalies we are dealing with symptoms of heritable defect instead of hereditary characters per se. Fere who has brought together a number of cases of this "malformation multiples" comments on "la coinci- dence du bec-de-lievre avec I'mfantilisme, avec la polydactylie et le pied bot, ou avec la syndactylie et d'autres vices de conforma- tion des extremites, de la polydactylie avec le coloboma de 1'iris et la retinite pigmentaire," and many other associations some of which may rest upon mere coincidences. One is, of course, not justified in lumping all sorts of defects together as the result of a single tendency to degeneration. There are indications of types of degeneracy within which certain stigmata are particularly prone to appear while other types of degeneracy are apt to be manifested by other groups of symptoms. The protean manifestation of certain types of defect makes the analysis of the phenomena a matter of unusual difficulty, and one which is often further complicated by association with the like- wise protean manifestations of hereditary syphilis. The following family history reported by Kiernan and described in Talbot's Degeneracy will forcibly illustrate this point: "A farmer lived twenty miles distant from his nearest neighbor, whose only child he married. ... He then found lead on his farm and went to a city . . . where he made money more as a cunning tool than an adventurer. He became a high liver, gouty and dyspeptic, and died with symptoms of gouty kidney at 70. The couple had five children. The eldest, a son, became a 'Napoleon of Finance/ . . . He married a society woman, the last scion of an old family. The second child, a daughter, was club-footed and early suffered from gouty tophi. She married a society man of old family who had 68 THE TREND OF THE RACE cleft palate. The third child, a daughter, had congenital squint. She married a man who suffered from migraine of a periodical type. The fourth child, a daughter, was normal. She married a thirty-year-old active business man, in whom ataxia developed a year after marriage. The fifth child, a son, was ataxic at eight- een. The children of the ' Napoleon of Finance ' and the society woman were an imbecile son, a nymphomaniac, a hysteric, a female epileptic who had a double uterus, and a son who wrote verses and was a society man. The cleft-palated society man and club-footed woman had triplets born dead and a squinting, migrainous son who, left penniless by his parents, married his cousin, the nymphomaniac daughter of the 'Napoleon of Fi- nance,' after being detected in an intrigue with her. The mi- grainous man and squinting daughter of the farmer stock-broker had a sexually inverted masculine daughter, a daughter subject to periodical bleeding at the nose irrespective of menstruation, as well as chorea during childhood, a normal daughter, a deaf-mute phthisical son, a daughter with cloacal formation of the perineum, an ameliac son, a cyclopian daughter (with one central eye) born dead, and, finally, a normal son. The sexual invert married the versifier son of the 'Napoleon of Finance.' The progeny of the normal daughter of the farmer stock-broker and the ataxic hus- band were a dead-born, sarcomatous son, a gouty son, twin boys paralyzed in infancy, twin girls normal, a normal son, and a son ataxic at fourteen. The progeny of the nymphomaniac daughter and her strabismic, migrainous cousin were a ne'er-do-well, a periodical lunatic, a dipsomaniac daughter who died of cancer of the stomach, deformed triplets who died at birth, an epileptic imbecile son, a hermaphrodite, a prostitute, a double monster born dead, a normal daughter and a paranoiac son." Aside from the evidences of luetic infection in some branches of this unfortunate family, there is a combination of traits, some of which, as bleeding and color blindness, are commonly trans- mitted as so-called "unit characters," while others are sympto- matic of defective tendencies which might find expression in a multitude of forms. INHERITANCE OF MENTAL DEFECTS AND DISEASE 69 Doubtless the writers who attribute so much to degeneracy have often failed to recognize traits which are separately trans- missible. But on the other hand, exclusive attention to the inheritance of particular characteristics leads to a disregard of other features of organisms which may be associated with the characters studied. Most studies made upon the Mendelian inheritance of human traits suffer from this drawback. Inspired by the desire to apply Mendel's law to all heritable traits, Mendel- ians have focussed their attention almost exclusivity upon partic- ular characters in the hope of unravelling the complex skein of human inheritance by tracing out the individual traits. With fuller experience with Mendelian phenomena it is coming to be recognized by many investigators that "characters" are not entities by themselves, but symptoms of general and deep-seated though it may be slight modifications. As Dr. T. H. Morgan says : "Most students of genetics realize that a factor difference usually affects more than a single character. For example, a mutant stock [of Drosophila] called rudimentary wings has as its principle [principal] characteristic very short wings. But the factor for rudimentary wings also produces other effects as well. The fe- males are almost completely sterile, while the males are fertile. The viability of the stock is poor. When flies with rudimentary wings are put into competition with wild flies relatively few of the rudimentary flies come through, especially if the culture is crowded. The hind legs are also shortened. All these effects are the results of a single factor-difference." Such flies may be called degenerates; whether they are more variable than robust races we do not know. There is no doubt that many writers of a generation or more ago employed the notion of degeneracy hi too wide and loose a sense. Nevertheless there may be an important element of truth in the idea which is apt to be overlooked by modern geneticists in their preoccupation with the transmission of particular and clearly definable characteristics. A more critical study of degenerate strains of plants and animals might afford valuable suggestions for the interpretation of many phenomena of human heredity. 70 THE TREND OF THE RACE REFERENCES MENTAL DEFECT IN GENERAL Barr, M. W. Mental Defectives. Blackiston's Son, Philadelphia, 1904. Church, W. S. et al. Influence of Heredity on Disease. Longmans, London, 1909. Davenport, C. B. Heredity in Relation to Eugenics. Holt and Co., N. Y., 1911. D6jerine, J. L'Heredite dans les Maladies du Systeme Nerveux. Paris, 1886. Fere, C. La Famille Neuropathique. Alcan, Paris, 1894. Heron, D. Mendelism and the Problem of Mental Defect, I: A Criticism of Recent American Work. Questions of the Day and Fray, 7, London, 1913. Kelynak, T. N. Human Derelicts. Kelly, London, 1914. MacDonald, A. Man and Abnormal Man. Gov. Printing Off., Washington, 1905. Martius, F. Konstitution und Vererbung in ihren Beziehungen zur Pathologic. J. Springer, Berlin, 1914. Moreau, P. La Psychologic Morbide. Paris, 1859. Morel, B. A. Traite des Degene'rescences Physiques, Intellectuelles et Morales de 1'Espece Humaine, Paris, 1857. Orschansky, J. Die Vererbung im gesunden und krankhaften Zustande. Enke, Stuttgart, 1903. Pearson, K., Mendelism and the Problem of Mental Defect, III. On the Grad- uated Character of Mental Defect, etc. Questions of the Day and Fray, 9, 1914. Pearson, K., and Jaederholm, G. A. Mendelism and the Problem of Mental De- fect, II. On the Continuity of Mental Defect. Questions of the Day and Fray, 8, 1914. Stainer, E. The Hereditary Transmission of Defects in Man. Oxford Univ. Press, 1910. Wallin, J. E. W. Problems of Subnormality. World Book Co., N. Y. and Chicago. 1917. FEEBLE-MINDEDNESS Crafts, L. W. Bibliography of Feeble-Mindedness in its Social Aspects. Jour. Psycho-Asthenics, Monogr. Suppl., Vol. I, pp. 73, 1917. Danielson , F. H., and Davenport, C. B. The Hill Folk. Mem. Eugen. Rec. Off., 1, 1912. Estabrook, A., and Davenport, C. B. The Nam Family. Mem. Eugen. Rec. Off., 2, 1912. Goddard, H. H. Heredity of Feeble-mindedness. Bull. Eugen. Rec. Off., No. i, 1911. The Kallikak Family, Macmillan Co., N. Y. 1912. Feeble-mindedness: its Causes and Consequences. Macmillan Co., N. Y. 1914. Lafora, G. R. Los Nirios Mentalmente Anormales, pp. XII +576. Ciencia y Educacion Manuales, Madrid, 1917. Tredgold, A. F. Mental Deficiency (Amentia). Balliere, Tindall and Cox. Lon- don, 2d, ed. 1914. INHERITANCE OF MENTAL DEFECTS AND DISEASE 71 INSANITY Berze, J. Die manic-depressive Familie. Monatschr. f. Psych. 26, 270, 1909. Die hereditare Beziehungen der Dementia praecox. Deuticke, Leipzig and Wien, 1910. Boven, W. Similarite et Mendelisme dans PH6redite" de la D6mence pr£coce et de la Folie maniaque-depressive. These Univ. Lausanne. Sauberlin and Pfeiffer, Vevey, 1915. Cannon, G. L., and Rosanoff, A. J. Preliminary Report of a Study of Heredity in Insanity in the Light of the Mendelian Laws. Bull. Eugen. Rec. Off., No. 3, 1911. Cotton, H. A. Some Problems in the Study of Heredity in Mental Diseases. Bull. Eugen. Rec. Off. No. 8, 1912, also Am. Jour. Insanity, 69, 31-89, 1912. Davenport, C. B., and Muncey,E. B. Huntington's Chorea in Relation to Heredity and Eugenics. Bull. Eugen. Rec. Off., No. 17, 1916, also Am. Jour. Insanity, 73, 195-222, 1916. Diem, O. Die psycho-neurotische erbliche Belastung der Geistesgesunden und der Geisteskranken. Arch Rass. u. Ges. Biol. 2, 215-252, 336-368, 1905. Goring, C. On the Inheritance of the Diatheses of Phthisis and Insanity, etc., Drapers' Co. Research Mems. 5, Dulau and Co., London, 1909. Heron, D. A First Study of the Statistics of Insanity and the Inheritance of the Insane Diathesis. Eugen. Lab. Mems. 2, London, 1907. An Examination of Some Recent Studies of the Inheritance Factor in Insanity. Biometrica, 10, 356-383, 1914- Maudsley, H. The Pathology of the Mind, 3d. ed., New York 1894. Mott, F. W. Heredity and Eugenics in Relation to Insanity. Problems in Eu- genics. I, 400-428, 1912. The Neuropathic Inheritance. Jour. Ment. Sci. 59, 222-261, 1913. A Study of Neuropathic Inheritance especially in Relation to Insanity. Archiv Neur. and Psych. 6, 79-98, 1914. Pearson, K. On the Inheritance of the Mental and Moral Characters in Man, and its Comparison with the Inheritance of the Physical Characters. Jour. An- throp. Inst. 33, 179-237, 1903. On the Inheritance of Insanity. Brit. Med. Jour. 1905. .Rehm, O. Die Ergebnisse der Untersuchung von Kindern manisch-depressiver Kranken. Zeit. f. Erforsch u. Behandl. jugendlich. Schwachsinns, 3, 1909. Roemer, H. Ueber psychiatrische Erblichkeitsforschung. Arch. Rassen. u. Ges. Biol. 9, 292-329, 1912. Rosanoff, A. J. Dissimilar Heredity in Mental Disease. Am. Jour. Insan. 70, 1-107, I9I3- Mendelism and Neuropathic Heredity, a Reply to some of Dr. David Heron's Criticism of Recent American Work, I. c. 70, 571-587, 1913-14. Rosanoff, A. J., and Orr,F . J. A Study of Insanity in the Light of the Mendelian Theory, Bull. Eugen. Rec. Off., No. 5, 1911, also Am. Jour. Insan. 68, 221- 261, 1911. Riidin, E. Einige Wege und Ziele der Familienforschung mit Riicksicht auf die Psychiatric. Zeit. f. d. ges. Neur. u. Psych. 7, 486-585, 1911. 72 THE TREND OF THE RACE Strohmayer, W. Zur Kritik der Feststellung und der Bewertung psychoneurotischer erblicher Belastung. Arch. Rass. u. Ges. Biol. 5, 478-497, 1908. Weinberg, W. Ueber neure psychiatrische Vererbungstatistik. Arch. Rass. u. Ges. Biol. 10, 303-312, 1913. INSANITY AND GENIUS Bjerre, P. Der geniale Wahnsinn. Naumann, Leipzig, 1905, p. 119. Ellis, H. H. A Study of British Genius, London, 1904. Galton, F. English Men of Science: their Nature and Nurture. Macmillan Co., London, 1874. Appleton's, N. Y., 1875. Hirsch, W. Genius and Degeneration. Appleton's, N. Y., 1896. Lombroso, C. The Man of Genius. W. Scott, London, 1891. Nuovo Studi sul Genio, Sandron, Palermo, 1902. Genio e Degenerazione, Sandron, Palermo, 1908. Nisbet, J. F. The Insanity of Genius. London, 1912. Nordau, M. Psycho-Physiologie du Ge*nie et du Talent. Alcan, Paris, 1897. Radestock, P. Genie und Wahnsinn, Breslau, 1884. Ttirck, H. Der geniale Mensch, 3d ed. Dummler, Berlin, 1898, p. 378. EPILEPSY Bingswanger, O. Die Epilepsie. Holder, Wien, 1913. Doran, R. E. A Consideration of the Hereditary Factors in Epilepsy. Am. Jour. Insan. 60, 61-73, 1903. Davenport, C. B., and Weeks, D. F. A First Study of Inheritance in Epilepsy. Bull. Eugen. Rec. Off., No. 4, 1911; also Jour. Nerv. and Ment. Dis. 38, 641- 670, 1911. Flood, E., and Collins, M. A Study of Heredity in Epilepsy. Am. Jour. Insan. 69, 585-603, 1913. Lundborg, H. Der Erbgang der progressiven Myoklonus-Epilepsie. Zeit. f. d. ges. Neur. u. Psych., 9, 353-358, 1912. Spratling, W. P. Epilepsy, and its Treatment. Saunders, Philadelphia and Lon- don, 1904. Thorn, D. A. The Frequency of Epilepsy in the Offspring of Epileptics. Bos, Med. and Sur. Jour. 174, 573-5, and 175, 599-601. See also 1. c. 173, 467-473. Weeks, D. F. The Inheritance of Epilepsy. Problems in Eugenics, I, 62-99, 1912. CHAPTER IV THE HERITABLE BASIS OF CRIME AND DELINQUENCY " Si la pauvrete est la mere des crimes, le d6f aut d'esprit en est le pere." — La Bruyere, De I'Homme. STRICTLY speaking it is of course absurd to speak of the inheri- tance of criminality. Crime is an offense against law. What is crime in one age and country may not be crime in another. No one is a criminal until he commits a crime, and whether or not a person so acts as to bring himself into conflict with the Jaw of the land is obviously dependent upon many circumstances. Under just the proper combination of conditions, doubtless most of us might have become criminals, for a time at least. While crime is in a very large degree a product of bad training and evil surroundings, some individuals may have, in a much greater degree than others, certain traits which dispose them to commit criminal actions. What a man does is the result of both hereditary and environmental factors. The recognition of the fact that the criminal is not merely a sinner to be punished, but a product to be scientifically studied and understood, is gradually leading to a new attitude toward the phenomena of crime. As judged by many modern students of the subject, crime belongs largely in the field of pathology. Where it is not to be attributed to bad education or environment it is charged to abnormal heredity. Since the publication of Morel's treatise on degeneration, there has been an increasing amount of attention paid to the various physical characteristics which are supposed to stigmatize the natural-born criminal. Among the foremost of the students of criminal anthropology is Lombroso whose anthropometric studies of numerous criminals in Italian prisons convinced him of the 73 74 THE TREND OF THE RACE existence of a definite type, — a kind of human being endowed with a peculiar physical organization and with instincts which power- fully dispose him to commit anti-social acts. Such individuals seem predestined to a life of crime from the day of their concep- tion. They take to it as a cow takes to pasture, because of the impelling force of unconquerable instinct. Lombroso's early study of psychiatry gradually led him into the field of anthropometry. He began a series of studies on the physical and mental characteristics of Italian prisoners and having had occasion to make a post-mortem study of a famous brigand, Vilella, he was struck with certain anomalies of the brain and particularly with a depression situated "precisely in the middle of the occiput as in inferior animals, especially rodents." "At the sight of that skull," says Lombroso, "I seemed to see all of a sudden, lighted up as a vast plain under a flaming sky, the problem of the nature of the criminal — an atavistic being who reproduces in his person the ferocious instincts of primitive humanity and the inferior animals. Thus were explained anatom- ically the enormous jaws, high cheek-bones, prominent super- ciliary arches, solitary lines in the palms, extreme size of the orbits, handle-shaped or sessile ears found in criminals, savages, and apes, insensibility to pain, extremely acute sight, tattooing, excessive idleness, love of orgies, and the irresistible craving for evil for its own sake, the desire not only to extinguish life in the victim, but to mutilate the corpse, tear its flesh, and drink its blood." Further studies carried on with much industry and enthusiasm served to confirm Lombroso in his interpretation of the born criminal as an atavistic product. It would be unjust to represent Lombroso, as some of his critics have done, as teaching that all or even a large majority of offenders are born criminals. He is perfectly well aware, and has clearly stated, that many who are led into crime are the victims of untoward influences, but he insists that there is a class of human beings of degenerate inheri- tance, and distinguished by certain physical and mental peculiar- ities, who constitute a so-called criminal type. And he is careful HERITABLE BASIS OF CRIME AND DELINQUENCY 75 to explain that by type he does not mean a pattern to which all born criminals conform. The type, as in comparative anatomy, is an ideal construction from which the actual embodiments depart to a greater or less degree. Some of the stigmata that characterize the born criminal may fail in one offender and others may be lacking in others. " In normal individuals," says Madame Ferrero, the daughter and approved interpreter of Lombroso, "we never find that accumulation of physical, psychical, func- tional and skeletal anomalies in one and the same person that we do in the case of criminals, among whom also entire freedom from abnormal characteristics is more rare than among ordinary individuals." "Just as a musical theme is the result of a sum of notes and not of any single note, the criminal type results from the aggregate of these anomalies which render him strange and terrible, not only to the scientific observer, but to ordinary persons who are capable of impartial judgment." The instinctive suspicion that we entertain of certain bad characters is held to be an indication of the existence of physical signs of criminality. Popular sayings offer evidence of this as is indicated by the following: "There is nothing worse under Heaven than a scanty beard and a colorless face." "The squint eyed are on all sides accursed." "A turned up nose is worse than hail." " Beware of him who looks away when he speaks to you." Among the marks said to be characteristic of criminals are anomalies in the size and shape of the skull, large face with prominent cheek bones and jaws, asymmetry of the face, ears, and eyes, drooping or oblique eyelids, and eyes with a hard ex- pression and shifty glance, large misshapen ears frequently with Darwin's tubercles, twisted nose, aquiline in murderers, but flattened and upturned in thieves, palatal ridges, anomalous teeth, scanty beard, and relatively long arms. In the brain anomalies are frequent, such as hypertrophied vermis, doubling of the fissure of Rolando, and peculiarities of the cells, especially in the frontal lobes. Certain kinds of criminals, such as mur- derers, are supposed to differ in their stigmata from others, such 76 THE TREND OF THE RACE as thieves. Many of the stigmata, like the third trochanter, poly- dactylism, perforate head of the humerus, etc., occur only in a. small percentage of cases, but more frequently than in normal persons. According to Lombroso most of the senses of criminals, except sight, are dull. There is an insensitiveness to pain which in certain cases is very striking. Criminals are commonly impulsive and may at times act with much energy, but they are generally lazy. Moral sense and natural sympathies are at a low ebb. Remorse seldom afflicts the born criminal. Vindictiveness, cruelty and excessive egotism and vanity are common traits. Intelli- gence, generally subnormal, may be well developed in some instances; as a rule criminals show a lack of prudence and fore- thought which often serves the ends of justice through causing failure adequately to conceal the evidences of crime. Lombroso regards the born criminal as an atavistic product. Many of the stigmata are said to represent characteristics found in the lower animals or among the savage races of mankind. The born criminal is a brute or savage living among human beings who have advanced beyond his stage of development. He repre- sents a survival of a primitive type. Lombroso recognized, especially in his later writings, that certain criminals are to be regarded as pathological products rather than cases of atavism. An important role is attributed to insanity and especially epilepsy in the causation of crime, and the effort is made to establish a fundamental relationship between epilepsy and the atavistic traits of the born criminal. "Crimi- nality," says Lombroso, "is an atavistic phenomenon which is provoked by morbid causes of which the fundamental manifesta- tion is epilepsy. It is true that criminality can be provoked by other diseases . . . but it is epilepsy which gives to it, by its gravity, the most extended basis." The experience of Lombroso and other investigators shows that epilepsy is much more prevalent in criminals than among normal individuals, although not so common as Lombroso's doc- trine would lead one to expect. This fact he attempts to account HERITABLE BASIS OF CRIME AND DELINQUENCY 77 for by the theory that epilepsy of criminals commonly exists in an attenuated or modified form. "If fully developed epileptic fits are often lacking in case of the born criminal, this is because they remain latent under the influence of the causes assigned, (anger, alcoholism), which bring them to the surface. With both criminals and epileptics there is to be noted an insufficient devel- opment of the higher centres. This manifests itself in the de- terioration in the moral and emotional sensibilities . . . and es- pecially in the lack of balance in the mental faculties, which, even when distinguished by genius and altruism, nevertheless always show gaps, contrasts, and intermittent action." The investigations and theories of Lombroso greatly stimu- lated the study of criminology and formed the starting point of a school, the so-called positive school of criminologists, which has been particularly active in collecting data on criminal anthro- pology. The doctrines of this school have been vigorously opposed by other students of crime, especially by Tarde, Topi- nard, and more recently Goring whose work on The English Convict represents perhaps the most thorough biometric investi- gation of criminals that has yet been made. If the members of the positive school went too far in representing the born criminal as a member of a distinct atavistic type, they did valuable service hi directing attention to the fact that crime often has a basis in physical and mental abnormality, and in paving the way for a true science of criminology. The notion of atavism in the sense in which it figures so largely in the theories of the positive school is one which is no longer adopted by most modern workers in genetics. The reversion which follows upon the restoration of ancestral conditions in the germ plasm by the combination of complementary factors in the crossing of different races of plants and animals, is a phenomenon quite different from the so-called atavistic peculiarities of criminal man. Much of what appears like atavism may result from arrested development occasioned by various pathological causes. And many deviations from normal structure which, if they do not happen to resemble conditions occurring in one animal may be 78 THE TREND OF THE RACE like something found in another, do not necessarily have any connection with reversion at all, but are simply the consequences of an abnormal inheritance, or the toxins of disease. To the extent that the born criminal deviates from normal man his peculiarities are to be regarded as the result of aberrant rather than reversionary development. The biometric studies of the English convict by Goring have shown that these deviations are much less frequent than is commonly represented by the positive school. Goring's work was based upon careful measure- ments of three thousand criminals committed to prisons for various kinds of crime. A comparison was made of thirty-seven physical attributes in five different classes of criminals with the end of ascertaining whether or not these classes could be distin- guished by any average differences of structure. For the most part when allowance was made for average age and other differ- ences in the classes compared, the differences in the physical characters of the five groups were so small that no particular significance could be attached to them. In certain respects, however, differential characteristics were found. Those convicted of crimes of violence are superior to other kinds of criminals and to the general population of corresponding age in physical strength and health. Next come the sexual offenders; thieves and burglars occupy an intermediate position; while those guilty of forgery, fraud and damage to property are least developed in muscular strength and have the poorest health. Criminals convicted of forgery and fraud are of the greatest average height, while thieves and burglars are inferior in stature as well as weight and "puny in their general bodily habit." Aside from general differences in physique, such as height, weight, obesity, strength and health, there are no anatomical peculiarities which differentiate criminals of different types or which serve to distinguish criminals in general from the average run of mankind. The criminal anthropologist might urge that the variations among criminals, which are admittedly in all directions, might tend to cancel one another in the statistical average and hence fail to reveal the greater preponderance of physical anomalies that HERITABLE BASIS OF CRIME AND DELINQUENCY 79 characterize the criminal type. Statistical methods, however, provide a means of testing such a supposition by enabling us to compare the standard deviations of the characteristics tabulated. The standard deviation, a measure of the average departure of individuals from the mean of the group, gives us a precise measure of the variability of the group dealt with. By comparing the standard deviations of the curves of variability for any measur- able character in criminals and non-criminals it can be determined which class of men exhibits the greater average degree of variation. This method is much more precise and valuable than the loose enumeration of particular cases which is so often found in writings on criminal anthropology. When applied to criminals by Goring (he applied the standard deviation for thirty-seven physical characters both in the criminal sub-groups and in the criminal group in general), it was found that the characters of the sub-groups of criminals had much the same range of physical variability, and that criminals as a whole compared with different classes of non-criminals fail to show any significantly greater range of variation in the physical features of which measurements were obtained. The doctrine that the born criminal is an anomalous, atavistic creature set apart from the rest of mankind by the possession of a physical and mental organization that inevitably disposes him to evil is rejected as without adequate basis of fact. "There is no such thing as an anthropological criminal type." But while denying the existence of a specific type of criminal, Goring is careful to state that criminals are discriminated from the law-abiding public by certain general physical and mental characteristics. His standpoint is best stated in his own words: "Reviewing the general trend of our results, it would seem that the appearances, stated by anthropologists of all countries to be peculiar to criminals, are thus described because of a too separate inspection and narrow view of the facts by these observers. They cannot see the wood for the trees. Obsessed by preconceived beliefs, small differences of intimate structure have been uncriti- cally accepted by them, and exaggerated to fit fantastic theories 8o THE TREND OF THE RACE The truths that have been overlooked are that these deviations, described as significant of criminality, are the inevitable concomi- tants of inferior stature and defective intelligence: both of which are the differentia of the type of persons who are selected for im- prisonment. The thief who is caught thieving, has a smaller head and narrower forehead than the man who arrests him; but this is the case, not because he is more criminal, but because, of the two, he is the more markedly inferior in stature. The incendiary is more emotionally unstable, and more lacking in control, more refractory in conduct, and more dirty in habit, etc., than the thief; and the thief is more distinguished by the above peculiarities than the forger; and all criminals display these qualities to a more marked extent than does the law-abiding public; not because any one of these classes is more criminal than another, but because of their interdifferentiation in general intelligence. On statistical evidence one assertion can be dogmatically made: it is, that the criminal is differentiated by inferior stature, by defective intelli- gence, and, to some extent, by his anti-social proclivities; but that apart from these broad differences, there are no physical, men- tal, or moral characteristics peculiar to the inmates of English prisons." The influence of heredity in the production of crime according to Goring is very strong. Criminality, as most other students of the subject have found, shows a marked tendency to run in families. To the question whether heredity or environmental factors are the most potent in producing criminals, Goring re- marks: "We think our figures, showing the comparatively insig- nificant relation of family and other environmental conditions with crime, and the high and enormously augmented association of feeble-mindedness with conviction for crime, and its well-marked relation with alcoholism, epilepsy, sexual profligacy, ungovern- able temper, obstinacy of purpose, and willful anti-social activ- ity— every one of these, as well as feeble-mindedness, being heritable qualities — we think that these figures, coupled with those showing the marked degree of ancestral resemblance in regard to the fate of imprisonment, go far to answering this question." HERITABLE BASIS OF CRIME AND DELINQUENCY 81 Whatever the final verdict of criminal anthropology may be concerning the physical peculiarities of the instinctive criminal, the evidence that a large proportion of crime is the outcome of innate mental defects and vicious propensities is abundant and convincing. Nearly all who have personally investigated the subject have found a high degree of criminality, alcoholism, and mental defect in the parents of criminals. Dr. Virgilio finds crime in 26.8 per cent of the parents of criminals, associated frequently with alcoholism. In the parentage of 447 criminals Penta found criminality in 88 cases, hysteria in 55, epilepsy in 33, alcoholism in 135 and insanity in 85. In the parents of 104 criminals whose heredity was examined by Lombroso there were 31 alcoholics, 10 criminals, 10 insane, while criminality and prostitution were prominent in the brothers and sisters. Accord- ing to Ellis, "of the inmates of the Elmira Reformatory, 499, or 13.7 per cent have been of insane or epileptic heredity. Of 233 prisoners at Auburn, New York, 23.03 per cent were clearly of neurotic (insane, epileptic, etc.) origin, in reality many more." Sichard, in 4,000 German criminals, found a neuropathic inheri- tance in 36. 8 per cent. And Pauline Tarnowsky in studying 160 women homicides found alcoholism in 71.24 per cent of the par- ents, mental disease in 10 per cent, and syphilis in 32.5 per cent. Among thieves the percentages of these traits were 49, 6, and 21 respectively, and among prostitutes 82.66, 9, and 48. Among the parents of 50 educated law-abiding women the percentage of alcoholism, mental disease and syphilis was 6, 2, and 10 respec- tively. The presence of criminality in successive generations of certain notorious families is doubtless to be attributed only in part to their unfortunate heredity, since environmental factors doubt- less contribute largely to the result. One of the first of such families to be studied in detail was the celebrated Jukes family which enlisted the interest of Mr. Dugdale, an able student of social problems and an active worker in prison reform. During his investigations of penal institutions in New York, Dugdale was struck with the recurrence of the same family name among the 82 THE TREND OF THE RACE inmates of certain prisons, and he was led thereby to investigate the family connections of these individuals, with the result of discovering a large number of people who were related and who could be traced back to a family of sisters, one of whom, Ada, nicknamed ''Margaret, the mother of criminals," gave rise to a progeny who now number over 800 descendants. Pauperism, crime, and especially prostitution were remarkably prevalent among the descendants of this woman. The four other sisters of Ada, whose histories are known, have left progeny whose record is of the same general character. Of the 709 Jukes studied by Dugdale, 180 were paupers or had received poor relief to the extent of 800 years, 60 were habitual thieves, 50 prostitutes, 7 murderers, and the total cost to the state was estimated at 351,308,000.00. This record was based on the history of the family up to 1875 when Dugdale's report (subsequently, 1887, issued in book form entitled The Jukes) was first published. Owing to a chance discovery of Dugdale's original manuscript with the true names of the individuals indicated (the published names were all ficti- tious) it became possible to trace out the later history of the family. This has been done by Dr. A. E. Estabrook of the Eugenics Record Office, and the results have been published hi a monograph, The Jukes in 1915. The interval between Dug- dale's time and 1915 has seen a rapid increase in the Jukes family with little or no improvement in its general character. Estab rook's investigations covered 2,094 persons of whom 1,258 were living in 1915. Of the whole family up to date considering only those of Jukes blood, 170 were paupers, 129 had received outdoor relief, 118 were criminals, 378 were prostitutes, 86 kept brothels, and 181 were intemperate. The following extract, which is essentially like dozens of others which might be chosen at random from Dr. Estabrook's monograph, will illustrate the general nature of the Jukes family history : Abe Isaac, by his second consort, Loretta, IV 3, whom he married, had seven children: Avery, Alton, Anson, Augustus, Alma, Alonzo, HERITABLE BASIS OF CRIME AND DELINQUENCY 83 and Amiel. After Loretta died, Abe Isaac cohabited for a short time with Thelma, IV 4, but had no children by her. Avery, V 3, was "a laborer"; at 30, grand larceny, county jail, 90 days; assault and battery, county jail, 90 days; at 49, rape on his niece, Sing Sing, 5 years; no property. He was none too industrious and received a pension as a Civil War veteran. He cohabited first with Satie, V 2, a wanderer and a harlot, and had two children by her. The older, VI 13, was a harlot like her mother and has been arrested for intemperance and disorderly conduct. The other, VI 14, a son, has disappeared. Satie deserted Avery and he then married Geneva, V 4, and by her had six children, the first dying at birth. While Avery was in State prison for rape on his niece, Geneva was in and out of the poorhouse with her children, and it was in the poorhouse that, at the age of 31, her bastard child was born. Geneva's family is interesting. Her brother has been in the penitentiary. Her mother was a pauper in the poorhouse at the same tune that Geneva and her children were there, making three generations of one family who were being cared for by the town at the same tune. There is no doubt that she was feeble- minded. At one tune she tried to kill one of her children, and was thereupon sent to a hospital for the insane. She was addicted to the use of laudanum, an overdose of which caused her death. The first child of Avery and Geneva died in infancy. The second was VI 16, who was 15 when his father was in State prison. At 16 this boy was sent to the penitentiary for petit larceny. At 17 he was a vagrant, wandering here and there. At 18 and again at 20 he was in the poorhouse for one year. At 24 he was sent to the penitentiary for 3 months for petit larceny. At 29 he was sent to State prison for 28 months for assault. At 35 he was in the county jail i month for intoxication, and again at 55 he was in the county jail for 10 days for the same offense. He has lost one eye, can neither read nor write, works very seldom, and begs his way wherever he goes. He is men- tally defective and should have been in custodial care many years ago. He has cohabited for a long time with a woman, VI 17, who is 10 years older than he, and is a beggar, indescribably filthy, and mentally defective. She has spent most of her life in the poorhouse. At 20 she was there and found her mother and sister there also. She can neither read nor write. She has never had any children. The third child of Avery and Geneva was a girl, VI 19. She was in 84 THE TREND OF THE RACE the almshouse as a young girl and later was placed in a Children's Home. She was discharged from the latter institution after being there but a short time. As a grown woman she was attractive, neat- appearing, and quiet to a casual observer, but she had a career of harlotry begun early in life and continued after she married (at 26) VI 1 8, an ignorant, semi-industrious, but well-intentioned man. Soon after the birth of her first child, VII 49, she was divorced on the grounds of adultery. Cohabitation with a vicious criminal, VI 20, followed and by him she had two children one of whom died in infancy. This man was convicted of burglary and sent to State prison for i to 4 years, and during this time VI 19 again became promiscuous in her sex relations. After his discharge from State prison she again con- sorted with him, then later left him and cohabited with a negro by whom she had one child. At the age of 39, VI 19 was sent to jail for 10 days for using indecent language. Two weeks after she was dis- charged she was again arrested with her "husband," VI 20, and with Ulysses, V 194, for the same offense and sent this time to the peni- tentiary for 3 months. At 40 she was arrested for intoxication and sent to jail for 10 days. Even later in life, to one who did not know the real character of VI 19, her appearance, bearing, and behavior in- dicated a woman of some refinement. She associated with a woman much like herself in appearance but yet of the same low and vicious traits. She placed two of her children, VII 49 and VII 50, in a Chil- dren's Home. Her last child (by a negro) was taken by the negro's people at her death, which occurred at 42. One noteworthy feature brought out by Estabrook's studies, is the large amount of feeble-mindedness among the Jukes. The children are for the most part retarded in school and give evidence of poor native ability aside from the effects of their home life. The children brought up in institutions generally turned out badly afterward. In general, according to Estabrook, "one-half of the Jukes were, and are feeble-minded, mentally incapable of responding normally to the expectations of society, brought up under faulty environmental conditions which they consider normal, satisfied with the fulfillment of natural passions and desires, and with no ambition or ideals in life." Feeble-mindedness characterizes the criminal elements of the HERITABLE BASIS OF CRIME AND DELINQUENCY 85 Jukes family even to a much greater degree than the family in general. Estabrook states he was "able to study many of the Jukes criminals of to-day and in every case the individual has been proved without a doubt to be feeble-minded. Willett, who committed murder; VI 529, a low-grade imbecile who committed burglary; Edgar, a rapist; and VI 16, who committed assault, are all mental defectives, and in none of these has their criminal record biased the writer in diagnosing their mentality. There is no evidence in the Jukes which points to the existence of a trait of criminality. Not all feeble-minded Jukes are criminal, but all the Juke criminals that I have known' I regard as mentally defective." Another notorious family with a bad record for criminality is the Tribe of Ishmael whose history has been followed through several generations by the Rev. O. C. McCulloch. The Tribe of Ishmael lived in the central part of Indiana where they made themselves a general nuisance to their neighbors by furnishing a liberal quota of petty thieves, vagrants, paupers, prostitutes, and several criminals of a more desperate kind. Many of these people lived a gypsy sort of life in the summer. A large propor- tion of the pauperism, prostitution and crime in the region in which this family lived was .traceable to this polluted stock. "The individuals already traced are over 5,000 interwoven by descent and marriage. They underrun society like devil grass. Pick up one, and the whole 5,000 would be drawn up. Over 7,000 pages of history are now on file in the Charity Organization Society." Jorger has traced out the remarkable record of the family Zero which lived in a Swiss valley since the beginning of the lyth century. The family early divided into three branches, two of which consisted of law-abiding citizens. The third branch arose from a man with a taint of insanity who married a vagrant and degraded Italian woman. The son resulting from this union married a woman of a vagabond German family Markus, by whom he had seven children, each of whom formed the starting point of a line of degenerate progeny. For three generations the 86 THE TREND OF THE RACE descendants of these lines have been paupers, vagabonds, thieves, drunkards and prostitutes. Mental defect was very common, especially in certain strains, and a considerable amount of syphi- lis was recorded, and much more probably occurred. From the standpoint of heredity, such families as the Jukes, Ishmaelites, Zeroes, etc., constitute a complex problem. That bad environment and the evil influences of family traditions are potent factors in determining the degradation of these unfortu- nate people, there can be no doubt. But there can be little doubt that heredity is a factor of great potency as well. Criminality may be due, not so much to the transmission of vicious propensi- ties (although there is evidence that vicious traits are trans~ mitted), as to the inheritance of mental defect and general lack of stamina. People with good stuff in them very often rise out of their vicious environment, while others under the best of conditions seem to take instinctively to evil pursuits. We should bear in mind in studying degenerate families and their unfavorable surroundings, that bad environment tends to be created by a bad heredity. Given stocks with an inheritance of low mentality, feeble inhibitions, and more or less mental disorder, in a few generations such stocks would gradually sink into the ranks of dependent or outcast humanity, and would soon develop tradi- tions of vice and immorality which would make it especially hard for an individual to rise in the social scale. When we consider a single individual born amid such unfavorable surroundings, we might be prone to attribute his shortcomings to his poor oppor- tunities. We might be able to point to many cases in which members of degenerate strains have become worthy citizens when given better chances for obtaining success. Such cases, in fact, are not infrequent. But this fact would in no wise controvert the assertion that heredity is primarily responsible for the condi- tion of these degenerate families. Under the conditions that prevail in our civilized society, there is a general tendency for families of good inheritance to rise into higher ranks, whatever misfortunes may have been responsible for their inferior position HERITABLE BASIS OF CRIME AND DELINQUENCY 87 in the social scale. Families of bad inheritance, although they may be endowed with wealth and social standing, tend after a time to sink into lower social strata. The qualities that count in the long run are mental ability, energy and reliability. It is in these traits that the notorious families we have been con- sidering have been so conspicuously lacking. People devoid of these qualities form the ne'er-do-wells, the people who through lack of initiative and energy drift into a bad environment and hence are led into crime. It is now fairly well established that criminals, or at least those of them who are sent to prison, are, on the average, of subnormal mentality. Here and there, of course, a man of superior ability is convicted of crime. But the men who make up the bulk of our prison population and especially men who have been convicted on two or more occasions (and these constitute the greater part of our prisoners) are distinctly below the general level of intelligence. Dr. Fernald states that "at least 25 per cent, of the inmates of our penal institutions are feeble-minded." According to Dr. Stearns nearly one-fourth of the population of the State Prison at Charlestown, Mass., are mentally defective. Dr. Haines reports that of 100 offenders examined as they entered the Ohio Penitentiary 20 were mentally incompetent. Of the homicides five-sevenths were feeble-minded. The same writer states that of 33 female prisoners of the same institution, 10 were feeble- minded but all the others were of "good mentality." H. B. Donkin states that 20 per cent of the prisoners of England are feeble-minded. The percentage of feeble-minded at Pentonville was found to be 18 per cent for adults and 49 per cent for juveniles.1 Recently Dr. Ordahl has made a series of mental tests of 53 male prisoners from the penitentiary at Joliet, 111., selected in such a way as to secure a fair representation of the prison population. 1 Dr. Wey of the Elmira Reformatory says, "It is a mistake to suppose that the criminal is naturally bright. If bright it is usually in a narrow line. Like the cunning of the fox his smartness displays itself in furthering his schemes and personal gratification and comfort." 88 THE TREND OF THE RACE With the exception of one man of less than 20 years of age, the age of the prisoners lay between 20 and 74, the greatest part being between 20 and 30. In mental age, however, they ranged "from that of a normal child of 6 years, to that of a youth of 15, or what is assumed to be the normal adult intelligence." Mr. Hastings Hart at a meeting of the American Prison Asso- ciation in 1913 estimated that 25 per cent, of adult prisoners in state institutions are feeble-minded. Lamb states that 45 per cent of the yearly admissions to the Manhattan State Hospital for the Criminal Insane are imbeciles of various grades, and Moore says that 40-45 per cent of the entrants into the N. J. Reformatory at Rahway during 1910 and the first part of 1911 were subnormal according to the Binet tests. The last report of the Elmira Reformatory places one-third of those received as mentally defective. Similar reports of the low mentality of criminal women tested at Bedford were made by Miss Weidensall who found that the intelligence of these women was considerably inferior to the average intelligence of 300 working girls of 15 years of age. Recent studies on the mental condition of prostitutes have shown, as might have been anticipated, that a very large percen- tage of these offenders are mentally defective.1 Havelock Ellis states that of the "15,000 women who passed through the Mag- dalen Homes in England, over 2,500, or more than sixteen per cent . . . were feeble-minded.'' In the Report of the Mass. Commission for the Investigation of the White Slave Traffic, So- called, it is stated that "of 300 prostitutes, 154, or 51 per cent, were feeble-minded. . . . The mental defect of these 154 women was so pronounced and evident as to warrant the legal commit- ment of each one as a feeble-minded person or as a defective 1 In the last two or three years evidence of the mental inferiority of prostitutes has accumulated with remarkable rapidity. Of recent contributions may be men- tioned McCord, C. P., Jour. Am. Inst. Crim. Law and Criminal., 6,388; and Train- ing School Bull., 1915; Ball, J. D., and Thomas, H., Journal Insanity, 1918, 647; Merz, P. A., Jour. Am. Med. Assn., 1919, 1597; Malzberg, B., Eugenics Rev. 12, 100, 1920; Norton, J. K., Jour. Delinquency, 5, 63, 1920; Fernald, M. R. et al., A Study of Women Delinquents in New York State, N. Y., Century Co., 1920. HERITABLE BASIS OF CRIME AND DELINQUENCY 89 delinquent. . . . The 135 women designated as normal, as a class were of distinctly inferior intelligence." : Dr. Abraham Flexner in his valuable book on Prostitution in Europe, says: Characteristic traits, external and internal, mark the scarlet woman; she has a distinct gait, smile, leer; she is lazy, unveracious, pleasure- loving, easily led, fond of liquor, heedless of the future, and usually devoid of moral sense. Defect undoubtedly accounts for certain cases, and especially so where a psychopathic family strain is continuously implicated. Of 21 girls recently admitted into a newly-established observation home in Berlin, 5 were reported as mentally below par; of Mrs. Booth's 150 cases discussed below, 12 per cent were feeble- minded. In the case of prostitutes committed under the British Ine- briate Acts, the percentage naturally runs much higher: in 1909, out of 219 such immoral women, only 70 are described as of "good" mental state; 118 were "defective"; 23, "very defective"; 8, "in- sane"; i. e., almost 70 per cent were below normal. . . . Bonhoffer, studying 190 prostitutes incarcerated in prison at Breslau, found that one hundred came from alcoholic families and that two-thirds of them were mentally defective — hysterical, epileptic or feeble-minded; his judgment is adverse to the existence of the born prostitute, but in favor of congenital defect as providing soil favorable to immorality.2 The association of crime and delinquency with mental defect which has been found among adult offenders, has been made strikingly apparent in recent studies of the mental status of juven- ile delinquents. Kelly reports that the boys of the Gatesville Industrial School to which boys are committed as a rule only 1 According to Dr. Davis of the Bedford Reformatory for Women out of 647 cases in the Reformatory there were 20 of insanity, 107 of feeble-mindedness and 193 of mental defectiveness according to the Binet tests. The Portland Vice Com- mission reported that out of the 2,500 prostitutes of Portland, 25-50 per cent were mentally defective. * In his monumental work, De la prostitution dans la ville de Paris, Parent- Duchatelet remarks: "Un des faits qui m'ont frapp6 en faisant mes recherches dans le Bureau des Mosurs et dans les archives de la Prefecture de Police, c'est la fre"- quence des observations sur la faiblesse de itle et sur I'gtat voisin de Palie'nation mentale attribue aux prostitutes." 90 THE TREND OF THE RACE after they have been guilty of more than one offense, show, when tested by the Binet and several other tests, a marked inferiority in mental development. The proportion of feeble-minded was 20 per cent, "but probably at least 50 per cent of delinquents are totally incapable of being taught to look after themselves in an environment as unfavorable as the one from which they came." The results of Ordahl's investigation of the cases brought before the Juvenile Court of San Jose, California, reveal the fact that "25 per cent of the criminal dependents, 45 per cent of the minor delinquents, and 75 per cent of the adult delinquents are feeble-minded. If the feeble-minded and borderline group are combined, then 45 per cent of the minor dependents and 60 per cent of the minor delinquents are below average-normal intelli- gence. In both the minor dependent and the minor delinquent group 60 per cent of the parents, so far as data were available, are either alcoholic, immoral, feeble-minded or insane." Ordahl's study of 341 delinquent boys of a school at St. Charles, 111., to which boys are committed for various offenses, reveals the existence of nineteen and six-tenths per cent of distinctly feeble-minded cases; 20.8 per cent were of very dull mentality "and many of these would probably prove on further study to be feeble-minded "; 15.5 per cent were borderline cases, the remaining 44.1 per cent, being of normal mentality. J. H. Williams finds that out of 215 boys hi the Whittier State School the distribution of intelligence was as follows: Feeble-minded 32 per cent. Borderline 21 " " Dull Normal 27 " " Normal and Superior 20 " " Dr. Haines' reports on the intelligence tests of 671 boys from the Ohio Boys Industrial Home, and 329 girls of the Ohio Girls Industrial Home, reveal much the same condition. All the in- mates were tested by both the Binet-Simon and the Yerkes- Bridges Point Scale tests. The proportion graded as feeble- HERITABLE BASIS OF CRIME AND DELINQUENCY gi minded according to the latter was 29 per cent and according to the former 57 per cent. Hauck and Sisson's studies of 201 boys and girls of the Idaho Industrial Training School show 24.6 per cent of feeble-mindedness among the boys, and 35.3 per cent of feeble-mindedness among the girls. In their study of young repeated offenders Drs. Spaulding and Healy found epilepsy or mental deficiency in 245 out of 668 cases in which a thorough study could be made; 152 cases showed moral defect in a preced- ing generation often combined with a psychopathic or neuro- pathic inheritance. Of the transmission of criminal traits as sueh the authors could find little evidence. An individual study of fifteen cases in which a peculiarly criminal inheritance was sug- gested convinced the authors that "various physical or mental factors are the real inheritance, and that criminalism may be implanted on these in successive generations." All told, the indirect influence of heredity on criminalism appears to be that in 35 per cent there is predominantly a transmission of mental or physical defect, and that in 9 per cent such inheritance is partly responsible. This makes a total of 44 per cent in which bad heredity is indirectly responsible for crime. The percentage of mental defect reported among juvenile malefactors naturally varies greatly in different groups, according to the basis upon which they are selected, and the kinds of tests applied. Travis, in his book on The Young Malefactor attributes the chief causes for juvenile delinquency to unfortunate environ- mental influences. While recognizing the importance of bad heredity, Travis opposes the views of the Italian positive school in claiming that "there are no stigmata of either crime or types of crime, but only of abnormality or degeneration. ... A study of the delinquent with respect to his physical, mental and ethical conditions, shows that at least 90 per cent and probably 98 per cent of first court offenders are normal." With due appreciation of the value of Travis' studies of the various factors which contribute to juvenile delinquency, and without opposing his contention that these offenders fail to show the physical stigmata of the so-called "born criminal," I am by 92 THE TREND OF THE RACE no means convinced from the evidence presented that the delin- quents are as nearly normal in their mental development as the author contends. I fail to find in his volume any record of the application of mental tests, and in fact there is very little discus- sion of the role of mental retardation in juvenile crime. This omission is probably due to the fact that the application of mental tests has been carried on for only a few years. Under the circum- stances, and in view of the contrary findings of other investi- gators, little reliance can be placed on the estimate just cited. The number of boys and girls who get into trouble through bad home conditions, evil associates, loss of one or both parents, and various other unfavorable influences is doubtless large, as most students of the subject have shown. While many a boy or girl of good natural mental or moral qualities has been led into criminal ways, nevertheless a considerable proportion of the conditions which predispose children to delinquency are indirectly the result of bad heredity. Intemperance, vice, pauperism, separation of parents, lack of parental control, ignorance, and many other factors to which juvenile delinquency is so often attributed, are very frequently the result of inherent incapacity or defect. Environment, as in so many other cases, gets the credit for what in the long run should be laid to the door of heredity. It is probable that an investigation of the men who constitute our tramps and vagrants would demonstrate a degree of mentality much like that in the inmates of prisons. According to Dr. C. H. Parker, "the Department of Education of Stanford University tested two hundred unemployed of the migratory labor class, and almost an even 25 per cent were found to be feeble-minded. Binet tests made in 1913 by the Economic Department of Reed College, Portland, covering 107 cases taken from the unemployed army showed the percentage of feeble-mindedness to be 26." Bonhoeffer has made a study of 404 individuals as they were committed to the central prison of Breslau, Germany, for begging or vagrancy. The investigation was confined to individuals who had served repeated sentences before their prison confinement, the number varying from 6 to over 60. These social parasites and HERITABLE BASIS OF CRIME AND DELINQUENCY 93 outcasts, as might have been anticipated, were found to be highly abnormal; 22 per cent were adjudged feeble-minded and n per cent were epileptic. Those of dull mentality were more numer- ous. As a rule their schooling was very limited. Many did not know the name of the Kaiser. Several who were born in Breslau could not tell the name of the river upon which that city is sit- uated; others confused the Pope with the cardinal residing in Breslau, and for several, Prussia, Germany and Europe were synonymous terms. Some also were ignorant of the main points of the compass, the number of months and weeks in a year, and the name of Bismarck. However poor his educational advantages may have been, it seems improbable that a person of normally active mind could have grown to maturity and remained ignorant of such matters as these. Only a small percentage were not addicted to alcohol, the favorite form being brandy. The relatively small proportion that came from the upper classes almost without exception were mentally unbalanced and came from insane (9 per cent), epi- leptic (12 per cent), or alcoholic (79 per cent) parentage. While the general morbidity of the group was high, few were physically unfit for labor. The majority, however, had been rejected as army recruits. Most of them had been from time to time un- skilled laborers of various kinds, and a great many originally came from the country. What was ascertained of the inheritance of these men indicated that a bad heredity was primarily responsible for much of their misfortunes. In a half of the cases there was a direct alcoholic psychopathic inheritance from either the father or mother. Doubtless more parental defect would have been discovered had it been possible to secure reliable data. The pedigrees of paupers, so far as they have been studied, show a large percentage of mental defect. The Eugenics Educa- tion Society in 1910 appointed a committee to investigate the families receiving poor relief. The investigation dealt not only with those who were poor through accident or misfortune, but with those families whose members showed a chronic disinclina- 94 THE TREND OF THE RACE tion for honest work. Pauper families were found to marry into other pauper families, some families even producing paupers through several generations. The committee reported that many of "the paupers whom they had seen and examined individually, are characterized by some obvious vice or defect such as drunken- ness, theft, persistent laziness, a tubercular tendency, mental deficiency, deliberate moral obliquity, or general weakness of character, manifested by the want of initiative, energy or stam- ina." In his discussion of the findings of this committee, Whetham cites two families which are described as average specimens of the results obtained: "Out of a family of twelve children, of whom four were dead, two were in industrial schools and one was in the workhouse. Both parents were paupers, all four grandparents, and, in addition, three uncles, one aunt, one aunt by marriage, three great-uncles and one of their wives, two great-aunts were kept at the public expense. Another branch of the same family gave the following results: An imbecile child was found hi the wards of a workhouse infirmary; its pater- nal grandfather's brother was a lunatic, the mother's father was an insane epileptic, her mother was consumptive, her maternal grandmother was probably consumptive and certainly a pauper, while the mother herself was illigitimate and subject to fits." The history of the Jukes, the Tribe of Ishmael, the Hill Folk, the Nams, and several other families show that much pauperism is a sort of family tradition resting upon a fundamental basis of inherited defect. The bad environment among which children of such families are usually raised makes paupers, vagrants or criminals of many who otherwise might have led useful lives. REFERENCES THE HEREDITARY FACTOR IN CRIME Aschaffenburg, G. Crime and its Repression. Boston, 1913. Bleuler, E. Der geborene Verbrecher. J. F. Lehmann, Munich, 1896. Boies, H. M. Prisoners and Paupers, N. Y., 1893. The Science of Penology, Putnam's Sons, N. Y. and London, 1901. Dallemagne, J. Les Stigmates Anatomiques de la Criminalitfi, Masson, Paris, 1896. Degen6r6s et Desequilibrfis, Bruxelles, 1897. HERITABLE BASIS OF CRIME AND DELINQUENCY 95 Darwin, L. The Habitual Criminal. Eugen. Rev. 6, 204-218, 1914. Donkin, B. Notes on Mental Defect in Criminals. Jour. Ment. Sci. 63, 16-35, 1917. Drahms, A. The Criminal: His Personnel and Environment. Macmilkn Co., N. Y., 1900. Dugdale, R. The Jukes, A Study in Crime, Pauperism, Disease and Heredity, 7th ed. Putnam's, N. Y., 1902. Ellis, H. H. The Criminal. W. Scott, London, 1901. Estabrook, A. H. The Jukes in 1915. Pubs. Carnegie Inst., No. 240, 1916. Ferrero, G. L. Lombroso's Criminal Man. Putnam's Sons, N. Y. and London, 1911. Ferri, E. Criminal Sociology. Little, Brown and Co., Boston, 1917. Forel, A. Verbrechen und konstitutionelle Seelenabnormitaten. Reinhardt, Miinchen, 1907. Goddard, H. H. The Criminal Imbecile. An Analysis of Three Remarkable Murder Cases. Macmillan Co., N. Y., 1915. Goring, C. The English Convict. Wyman and Sons, London, 1913. Jorger, J. Die Familie Zero. Arch. f. Rass. u. Ges. Biol. 2, 494-559, 1905. Lombroso, C. L'Uomo Delinquente, 5th ed, 3 vols., Bocca, Turin, 1906, 1907. Criminal Anthropology. Twentieth Century Practice of Medicine, 12, 371- 433, 1897. The Female Offender, Fisher Unwin, London, 1895. Lydston, G. F. Diseases of Society. Lippincott Co., Philadelphia, 1904. MacDonald, A. Abnormal Man, being Essays on Education and Crime with Di- gests of Literature and a Bibliography. Gov. Print. Off., 1893. Man and Abnormal Man. Senate Document 187, Washington, 1905. Criminology. Funk and Wagnalls, London and N. Y., 1893. [Full Bibliography, pp. 275- 408.] Mosby, T. S. Causes and Cures of Crime. St. Louis, 1913. Ordahl, G. A Study of Fifty-three Male Convicts. Jour. Delin. I, 1-21, 1916. Ordahl, L. E., and Ordahl, G. A Study of 49 Female Convicts, 1. c. 2, 331-351, 1917. Parmelee, M. The Principles of Anthropology and Sociology in their Relations to Criminal Procedure, N. Y.. 1911. Pollitz, P. Die Psychologic des Verbrechers, 2d ed, Teubner, Leipzig and Berlin, 1916. Rath, C. Ueber die Vererbung von Dispositionen zum Verbrechen. W. Spemann, Stuttgart, 1914, pp. 138. Rossey, C. S. Report on the First Three Hundred Cases Examined at the Massa- chusetts State Prison. Bull. Mass. State Board Insan., No. 17, 1916. See also, 1. c. No. 16. Tarde, G. Penal Philosophy. Boston, 1912. Tarnowsky, P. fitude Anthropom£trique sur les Prostitu6es et les Voleuses. Publ. du ProgrSs Medical, Paris, 1889. Les Femmes Homicides, Paris, 1908. Weidensall, Jean. The Mentality of the Criminal Woman. Warwick and York, Baltimore, 1916. Wigmore, J. H. A Preliminary Bibliography of Modem Criminal Law and Crim- g6 THE TREND OF THE RACE inology. Bull. No. i, Gary Library of Law, Northwestern Univ., Chicago, 1909, pp. 128. Wulffen, E. Gauner-und Verbrecher-Typen. Langenscheidt, Berlin, 1910. Zampa, R. Delia Comparazione dei Caratteri Fisici dei Delinquenti et non De- linquenti. Riv. di Discipl. Carcerarie 20, 73-105, 1890. DELINQUENCY AND DEFECTIVENESS Beanblossom, M. E. Mental Examination of Two Thousand Delinquent Boys and Young Men. Indiana Reformatory Print, 1916, p. 23. Bronner, A. F. A Comparative Study of Delinquent Girls. Columbia Univ. Contrib. to Educ., No. 68, 1915. Bridgman, O. L. Delinquency and Mental Deficiency. Survey, 32, 1914, 302. Cowdery, K. M. Analysis of Field Data Concerning 100 Delinquent Boys. Jour. Delinquency, I, 129-153, 1916. Crafts, L. W., and Doll, E. A. The Proportion of Mental Defectives among Juve- nile Delinquents. Jour. Delinquency, 2, 119-143 and 191-208, 1917. Goddard, H. H. The After History of Fifty Delinquent Girls Adjudged Feeble- Minded on the Basis of a Binet Examination Given Five Years Ago. Psych. Bull. 14, 78, 1917. Gruhle, H. W. Die Ursachen der jugendlichen Verwahrlosung and Kriminalitat. Studien zur Frage: Milieu oder Anlage. Springer, Berlin, 1912. Healy, W. The Individual Delinquent. Little, Brown and Co., Boston, 1915. Healy, W., and Bronner, A. F. Youthful Offenders: A Comparative Study of Two Groups, each of 1,000 Young Recidivists. Am. Jour. Sociol. 23, 38-52, 1916. Healy, W., and Healy, M. T. Pathological Lying, Accusation and Swindling. Little, Brown and Co., Boston, 1915. Hickman, H. B. Delinquent and Criminal Boys Tested by the Binet Scale. Train- ing School Bull, n, 159-164, 1915. Kelly, T. L. Mental Aspects of Delinquency. Univ. Texas Bull., No. 1713, 1917. Miner, J. B. Deficiency and Delinquency. Warwick and York, Baltimore, 1918. (Bibliography of 228 titles.) Ordahl, G. A Study of 341 Delinquent Boys. Jour. Delinquency, i, 72-86, 1916. Mental Defectives in the Juvenile Court, U c. 2, 1-13, 1917. Spaulding, E. R., and Healy, W. Inheritance as a Factor in Criminality. A Study of a Thousand Cases of Young Repeated Offenders. Bull. Am. Ac. Med., 15, 4-27, 1914. Williams, J. H. Intelligence and Delinquency. A Study of 215 Cases. Jour. Crim. Law and Criminol. 6, 696-705, 1916. Also other papers in the Reports of the Whittier State School, Whittier, Calif. PROSTITUTION AND DEFECTIVENESS Clarke, W. Prostitution and Mental Deficiency. Soc. Hygiene, 1915, 1-24. Flexner, A. Prostitution in Europe. The Century Co., N. Y., 1914. Grabe, E. von. Prostitution, Kriminatitat, und Psychopathic. Arch. f. krim. Anthrop. u. Kriminalitat, 1912, pp. 48. HERITABLE BASIS OF CRIME AND DELINQUENCY 97 Kammerer, P. G. The Unmarried Mother. (A Study of 500 Cases.) Little, Brown and Co., Boston, 1918. Karpas, M. J. The Psychopathology of Prostitution. N. Y., Med. Jour. 106, 103-107, 1917. Kneeland, G. G. Commercialized Prostitution in New York City. Century Co. Paddon, M. E. A Study of Fifty Feeble-Minded Prostitutes. Jour. Delinquency, 3, i-n, 1918. McCord, C. P. A Study of the Mentality of Prostitutes and "Wayward Girls." Jour. Crim. Law and Criminol., 6, 385-407, 1915. Spaulding, E. R. Mental and Physical Factors in Prostitution. Proc. Nat. Conf. Char, and Corr. 41, 222-229, 1914. HEREDITARY FACTORS IN PAUPERISM AND VAGRANCY Bonhoeffer, K. Ein Beitrag zur Kentniss des grossstadtischen Bettel-und-Vaga- bondentums. Eine psychiatrische Untersuchung. Zeit. f. Strafrechtswiss, 21, H. i, 1900. Separate from G. Guttentag, Berlin, pp. 65. Brigger, G. A Study of Twenty-five Repeaters at the Associated Charities, Port- land, Oregon. Jour. Delinquency, i, 187-194, 1916. Devine, E. T. Misery and its Causes. Macmillan Co., Y. N., 1912. Florian, E., and Cavaglieri, G. I Vagabondi. Studio Sociologico-Giuridico. Bocca, Turin, 2 Vols., 1897, 1900. Gilliland, A. R. The Mental Ability of 100 Inmates of the Columbus, O, Work- house. Jour. Crim. Law and Criminol. 7, 856-866, 1916-17. Johnson, G. R. Unemployment and Feeble-Mindedness. Jour. Delinquency, 2, 59-73, 1917. Laubach, F. C. Why There Are Vagrants. A Study Based upon an Examination of One Hundred Men, N. Y., 1916. Link, H. C. Employment Psychology: The Application of Scientific Methods to the Selection, Training, and Grading of Employees. Macmillan Co., N. Y., 1919. Marie, A., and Meunier, R. Les Vagabonds. V. Giard, and E. Briere, Paris, 1008. Parker, C. H. The California Casual and his Revolt. Quart. Jour. Econ. 30, no- 126, 1915. Parmelee, M. Poverty and Social Progress. Macmillan Co., N. Y., 1916. Pintner, R., and Toops, H. A. A Mental Survey of the Population of a Workhouse. Jour. Delinquency, 2, 278-287, 1917. Rowntree, B. S. Poverty: A Study of Town Life. Macmillan Co., London, 1901. Warner, A. G. American Charities, N. Y., 1908. Webb, S., and Webb, B. The Prevention of Destitution. Longmans, Green and Co., N. Y. and London, 1912. CHAPTER V THE INHERITANCE OF MENTAL ABILITY "We inherit our parents' tempers, our parents' conscientiousness, shyness, and ability, as we inherit their stature, forearm, and span." — Karl Pearson. WE have seen that feeble-mindedness and other forms of mental defect tend to be strongly transmitted. Can it be shown that the same statement applies to superior ability? For various reasons the doctrine that mental traits are inherited has been regarded with suspicion, and has frequently encountered active opposition. Many writers, influenced by a theological or meta- physical bias, have been reluctant to admit that the laws of heredity which apply to the transmission of physical traits hold also for the mind. Many political and social theorists have found it convenient to minimize the importance of the innate mental differences between men, and have attempted to explain such mental differences as were only too obvious as the result of accidents of education, early experience, and other circumstances external to the individual himself. The doctrine of the equality of man preached by Rousseau and his followers and embodied in our own Declaration of Independence had a tendency to prevent due recognition of the fact that human beings differ profoundly in their inherited mental gifts. The admission of such inheritance might prove a dangerous concession to the claims of aristocracy, and it is not surprising, therefore, to find such a champion of popular rights as Thomas Paine contending against the possi- bility of the inheritance of mental ability. Writers of a much later period, though inspired by much the same motives, have expressed similar views. Henry George, who, like many other socialists, attempted to explain the differences among men as chiefly the production of an iniquitous social order, stated that 98 THE INHERITANCE OF MENTAL ABILITY 99 "The influence of heredity, which it is now the fashion to rate so highly, is as nothing compared with the influences which mold the man after he comes into the world." The establishment of the theory of evolution, and its applica- tion to the development of mankind could scarcely fail to direct renewed attention to the inheritance of mental qualities in man. Inspired by this doctrine and stimulated by the writings and personal influence of his cousin, Charles Darwin, Francis Galton was led to undertake those studies on inheritance by which he has since become famous. The investigations which Galton made upon the inheritance of ability were embodied in his celebrated volume on Hereditary Genius. In this work Galton showed that superior ability runs in certain families to a very marked degree. We are all familiar with families which are celebrated for the number of their great names: In science, the Herschels, Ber- nouillis, De Candolles, Darwins and Gregorys; in literature, the Brontes, the Arnolds, the Hallams, and the Lowells; in music, the Bachs and the Mendelssohns. It might be contended that the occurrence of such groups is purely fortuitous. Even if there were no transmission of ability or any other reason why persons of the same family should become distinguished it would be possible, from all the great men in the world, to pick out a considerable number of cases in which two or more men of great ability hap- pened to belong to the same family. Galton, who was too critical an investigator to base his case merely on evidence especially selected to prove his theory, undertook an impartial statistical inquiry into the families of eminent men in order to ascertain how far the data obtained would yield evidence of the hereditary basis of great ability. Eminent men were classified into several groups, judges, scientists, literary men, statesmen, poets, musicians, painters and divines. The basis for selection varied with the different groups, but was in all cases made so as to include the most eminent persons regardless of heredity. Then the endeavor was made to determine to what degree eminent men in these groups had eminent relatives. It was shown that eminent men have eminent relatives to an enormously greater degree than do ioo THE TREND OF THE RACE ordinary people, and that, as a rule, the more eminent the person, the more eminent persons are to be found among his near rela- tives. Thus 80 per cent of the Lord Chancellors had eminent relatives, whereas only 36 per cent of the other judges were thus distinguished. Similarly it was shown that in the families of the more illustrious statesmen there is a larger percentage of great names than in the families of statesmen who are less eminent. In general, the proportion of eminent relatives of great men is found to decrease as the relationship becomes remote. It is impossible in a short space to give an adequate summary of the large amount of interesting data which Galton amassed, and especially of the able discussion of the thesis that the facts are explicable only by the hypothesis that great ability is trans- mitted in much the same way as are most characteristics of organic beings in general. It has never been questioned that Galton's investigations have demonstrated the tendency of cer- tain stocks to produce men of distinguished ability. But Galton's critics have maintained that this tendency is based, not upon heredity, but upon the peculiar advantages which these families offered for the development of .whatever talent they may have possessed. A parent-offspring or a fraternal correlation does not in itself prove inheritance. The degree of education attained by the members of a family, for instance, may depend upon wealth, family tradition, or a number of other circumstances quite apart from heredity. A child born in the slums, even with the best inheritance, suffers certain very obvious disadvantages as com- pared with a child of a Lord Chancellor. Mr. Constable in his Poverty and Hereditary Genius which is devoted to controverting Galton's conclusions, has urged that for many people the draw- backs of poverty are so great as to prevent them from ever gain- ing a reputation for distinguished achievement. There is, he claims, a large amount of latent ability in the general population that awaits only the touch of opportunity to blossom forth. Similar views are held by many other writers, among the most noteworthy of whom is the Nestor of American sociologists, Dr. Lester F. Ward. THE INHERITANCE OF MENTAL ABILITY 101 Galton, however, did not fail to ascribe a certain degree of importance to environment in the making of great men, but it is probable that he unduly minimized its influence. The number of distinguished men per century has rapidly increased as civilization has advanced and as education has become more widely diffused, but we cannot maintain that there has been a commensurate increase in the amount of inherited ability in the race. Great men appear more abundantly near centres of learn- ing than in regions less subject to the intellectual leaven of culture. It is true that many men bom in poverty have attained greatness only after a long struggle that seemed to develop their intellectual powers and force of character. But there is no way of ascertaining how many others there have been who might have achieved greatness had they received the proper stimulus for developing their latent power, or who may have become discour- aged in their strivings by the deadening influence of a life of toil. Among people who are financially able to give their children the advantages of a good school and college education, the environmental conditions that tend to give rise to greatness in a country like England are not apparently very unequal. Chil- dren in families with intellectual tastes may have a somewhat better chance to become distinguished than if they had a less stimulating home environment. It cannot be assumed, however, that the home of a great man usually affords a much better nursery for genius than many another home among people of intelligence and culture. So far as environment is concerned it is probable that the family of an English judge of the Court of Chancery might be as favorable for the production of an eminent person as the family of a Lord Chancellor. We might admit that Galton underestimated environmental influence, but his critics have never shown, with any degree of plausibility, that environ- ment accounts for the striking tendency of eminent people to have eminent near relatives. Valuable contributions to the subject on the inheritance of ability were later made by Galton in his work on English Men of Science, and especially in his volume on Noteworthy Families 102 THE TREND OF THE RACE written in collaboration with Edgar Schuster, the first Galton Research Fellow in Eugenics in the University of London. Ma- terial for the Noteworthy Families was obtained from answers to circulars sent to all of the Fellows of the Royal Society whose names appeared in the Year Book for 1904. Replies were re- ceived from 207 of the 467 addressed, and as over half of these were incomplete in regard to several members of the family, the inquiry was limited to 100 of the most complete records. Probably a better selection could not be made for the purpose of studying the inheritance of ability. The Fellows of the Royal Society are very carefully chosen by the Council of that society on the basis solely of distinguished achievement. Political influence, financial status, or the many other aids which sometimes place men of mediocre talents in positions of prominence have practi- cally no weight in the choice of a man for the honor of a F. R. S. An inspection of the list of families with their imposing array of great names can scarcely fail to convince any one that they represent an aristocracy of ability of the most noteworthy kind. The first family on the list, the Balfours, includes: (1) Arthur Balfour, Prime Minister, 1902, President of the British Association, 1904, noted statesman and author. (2) Francis M. Balfour, F. R. S., his brother, Professor of Animal Morphology at Cambridge, brilliant investigator in Embryology, and generally regarded as one of the most able and promising of English biologists at the time of his early death. (3) The Right Hon. Gerald W. Balfour, P. C., Fellow of Trinity Col- lege, Cambridge, and president of the Board of Trade, in 1902. (4) Eleanor M. Balfour (Mrs. Henry Sidgwick), Principal of Newn- ham College, Cambridge. (5) Evelyn, wife of Lord Rayleigh, F. R. S., and mother of Robert J. Strutt F. R. S. (6) The Marquis of Salisbury, K. G., P. C., F. R. S., Prime Minister, Chancellor of the University of Oxford, president of the British Association, statesman and essayist. Surely environment does not explain the distinction of a family like this, or of many others in Galton's list. The appendix of the THE INHERITANCE OF MENTAL ABILITY 103 work contains a list of 32 noteworthy fathers of 38 Fellows of the Royal Society. One of the most striking illustrations of the inheritance of ability is afforded by the descendants of Erasmus Darwin. On the originality, general ability, and productiveness of Erasmus Darwin it is not necessary to comment. Robert Waring Darwin, his son, was a distinguished physician, and, like his father, a F. R. S. Another son, Charles, was a man of remarkable promise, and although he died at the age of 20, he gained the first gold medal of the ^sculapian Society for experimental research. Charles Robert Darwin, the author of the Origin of Species, and by common consent one of the world's greatest men of science, was the son of Robert W. Darwin. He married his cousin, Emma Wedgewood, a granddaughter of Josiah Wedgewood, F. R. S., the founder of the pottery works that produced the famous Wedgewood ware. Charles Darwin's four sons became men of note: Francis Darwin, F. R. S., a prominent English botanist; George Darwin, F. R. S., noted astronomer, and Professor of Astronomy at Cambridge; Horace Darwin, F. R. S., a prominent engineer; Major Leonard Darwin, author of works on political economy, president of the Eugenics Education Society, and president of the International Eugenics Congress. Finally must be mentioned Francis Gal ton, cousin of Charles Darwin, grand- son of Erasmus Darwin, and an excellent illustration of the hereditary genius, the potency of which he did so much to demon- strate. The inheritance of mental and moral traits has been studied by Pearson and some of his colleagues by statistical methods similar to those employed in the study of the inheritance of physical traits. An intensive investigation was carried out by Pearson upon from three to four thousand school children. In- stead of attempting to compare the mentality of parents and off- spring, Pearson studied the resemblance in mental and moral traits of offspring of the same parents. The data upon which the comparisons were based were obtained from the teachers whose judgment of the mental and moral status of their pupils may be IO4 THE TREND OF THE RACE considered, on the whole, to have a fair amount of accuracy. Various physical measurements of the children were also taken, so that it was possible to compare the resemblance of the children in mental characteristics with their resemblance in physical characters. The correlations between brother and brother, sister and sister, and sister and brother for various physical characteris- tics averaged about .5. The fraternal correlations in mental and moral characteristics are expressed in the following table: Resemblance of Siblings in Mental Traits Brothers Sisters Brothers and Sisters Veracity .47 .4.3 .40 Assertiveness • ^3 .4.4. . "?2 Introspection . <*Q .47 6a Popularity - ^o . ^7 40 Conscientiousness • ^Q .64 .6^ Temper • "?I -40 • $1 Ability .40 .47 .44 Handwriting .13 .56 .48 Mean •52 •51 • 52 It is certainly remarkable that siblings should not only resemble one another in several mental and moral traits to so nearly the same degree, but that the degree of resemblance should be just about the same for both mental and physical traits. If the fra- ternal correlation for mental ability or temper is about the same as the fraternal correlation for eye color and cephalic index (characters not sensibly influenced by the environment) we must conclude, as Pearson argues, that correlations in these mental characteristics are due mainly to inheritance. Of course associa- tion, similarity of home environment, and common training may tend to increase these correlations. If a favorable home environ- THE INHERITANCE OF MENTAL ABILITY 105 ment is correlated with superior performance of the student, it does not follow that the former may not be the result of superior heredity on the part of the parents. As Pearson remarks: "The average home environment, the average parental influence is in itself a part of the stock and not an external and additional factor emphasizing the resemblance between children of the same home." Doubtless this consideration which is not sufficiently appreciated by those who would make environmental differences all important, is of much weight. We are still lacking, however, an adequate measure of the extent to which similarity of condi- tions may produce similarities in mental characteristics. The most reasonable position in the face of such evidence as we have just considered is that as regards the traits in question, differences in heredity are much more important than differences in environ- ment. No other position seems to be easily reconciled with the remarkable similarity in the degree of resemblance between correlations for physical and mental characteristics. How often do we find among children of the same family exposed to very similar conditions and having practically the same training, but manifesting the greatest differences in tastes, temperament, vivacity, ability, and other mental traits! Nor is it a matter of common experience that these differences become notably lessened with longer association and subjection to the same environmental influences. The measurements of Thorn- dike on the performance of school children who have been asso- ciated for several years in the school, showed that the children were quite as much unlike at 12 to 14 as between 9 and 10. Stu- dents differing in their ability to perform certain tasks such as addition were given precisely the same training, and then tested again at a later period. Those who performed the task best at the beginning of the experiment performed the task best at the end, and they stood relatively further ahead of the poorer ones than at first. Equalizing opportunity does not tend to make people equal. If the opportunities for development are good those with the best inheritance will profit so much more than those with poor inheritance that the original differences between io6 THE TREND OF THE RACE them will be considerably increased. As we have before remarked, what environment can do for a person depends upon how gener- ously he has been endowed by inheritance. Of individuals who inherit well it may in truth be said: "To those that hath shall be given." If one's inheritance is poor there is nothing which this world can offer that will compensate for the loss. Schuster and Elderton have studied the inheritance of ability by means of biometric methods similar to those employed by Pearson. In one investigation these authors worked out the parent-offspring correlations from data obtained by Heymans and Wiersma in their studies of psychical inheritance. These data were secured by sending out 3,000 questions to Dutch physicians. Each questionnaire contained ninety questions covering quite completely the psychical characteristics and peculiarities of the subjects described. Over 400 replies were received, which is a fairly good return considering the detailed information sought for in the questionnaires. The degree of cor- relation between parent and offspring was found to vary consid- erably for different traits, but, after correcting for the influence of assortative mating, the average correlations were found to be as follows: father and son, .279; father and daughter, .252; mother and son, .194; mother and daughter, .305. Considering the way in which the data were collected and the adventitious source of heterogeneity in the material the correlations show a noteworthy degree of similarity to those discovered by Pearson. In another study by Schuster and Elderton the material used was derived from scholars at Oxford and the boys' schools at Harrow and Charterhouse. From the Oxford records a compari- son was made between the scholastic standings of fathers and sons who had attended the University. Since 1800 the University of Oxford had four classes of honors, those graduating without honors receiving simply the "pass" degree. Those who attended the University, but who failed for one or another reason to graduate constituted a class whose scholastic standing is on the average lower than those who graduated without honors. Ob- taining honors can legitimately be held to offer a fair index of THE INHERITANCE OF MENTAL ABILITY 107 ability. It is quite well established that high standing in college is correlated with success in later life. Should it be found, there- fore, that sons in the honor class have a relatively large proportion of fathers in the high honor class, while sons of the "pass" or ungraduated classes have a relatively large proportion of fathers in these classes also, it would offer strong evidence of hereditary differences in ability. The results of the study may be summar- ized in the following table: Scholarship of Fathers and Sons at Oxford Percentage of Fathers Sons Obtaining Obtaining First or Second Class Honors First class honors 41 . 9 Second class honors 40. 7 Third class honors 33-3 Fourth class honors 28. i Pass degree 20 . i No degree 12.9 The striking feature of this table is the regularity with which the percentage of high scholarship among the fathers decreases as the scholarship becomes lower in the sons. The correlation coefficients between father and son were .29 or .31 according to which of two methods of calculating the coefficients was em- ployed. The correlation coefficient of brother and brother was somewhat higher, viz., .405, due possibly to the fact that methods of instruction, standards of grading and other circumstances were more nearly alike for brothers than for fathers. The scholastic records of two secondary schools, Harrow and Charterhouse, were investigated by much the same methods, but owing to the absence of data concerning the parents the study was limited to comparisons between brothers. The data which were drawn from several thousand students gave a fraternal correlation of .398 which is very close to what was found for the students at Oxford. This correlation did not increase sensibly with increasing age of the students. io8 THE TREND OF THE RACE The inheritance of arithmetical ability has been studied by Cobb who applied the "Courtis Tests in Arithmetic Series A" to the parents and children in eight families of the faculty of the University of Illinois. The records were compared with norms obtained by testing 200 students of the same institution of much the same degree of maturity and social status. Cobb studied particularly the relation between the aptitude for addition, subtraction, multiplication, division and copying figures in both parents and children. One individual may be good in addition and poor in division, and the endeavor was made to find if the relative of that individual would show the same distribution of aptitudes. The results of the study yielded considerable indica- tion of alternative inheritance of the traits in question. The average correlation with the mid parent was .49, with the like parent .60, with the unlike parent .01. The numbers of individ- uals dealt with were too small to yield results which would be convincing by themselves, but they serve to corroborate the general conclusions of other investigatiors. The studies of Starch on the resemblance in the performance of scholars from the same family yield further confirmatory evidence. Next to Galton's Hereditary Genius perhaps the best known investigation of the inheritance of mental traits is the work of Woods on Mental and Moral Heredity in Royalty. Members of royal families offer some peculiar advantages for such a study since their genealogies are matters of record to a greater extent than those of ordinary people; as a class they are free from the struggle for livelihood and have usually enjoyed educational advantages of a superior kind. Differences in environment probably affect the intellectual development of royalty much less than that of the majority of mankind. The study of Woods embraced all members of the royal families of Europe about whom information could be secured. Individ- uals were grouped according to their intellectual ability into ten catagories, number i including those generally adjudged to be imbeciles, number 10 including only a few of the most illustrious names, while the great majority naturally fell into the intervening THE INHERITANCE OF MENTAL ABILITY 109 classes. A similar rating was made of moral qualities. The rating of the intellectual status of royalty, — a very difficult matter, — was made on as impartial a basis as possible. Grades 9 and 10 included only names occurring in Lippincotf s Dictionary of Biography and especially celebrated also on account of high intellectual power. Judgments of biographers and historians were relied upon for determining the various grades. Many errors of rating were doubtless made, as Woods himself admits, but it is not probable that many of the lowest classes were put into the highest classes, or vice versa. Probably most individuals in the middle grades belong somewhere near the grade in which they were placed. In a statistical investigation of this sort if most of the judgments are approximately correct the conclusions drawn will be of value. While much evidence was given of the alternative inheritance of mental traits, it was shown that rulers of great ability mani- fested a strong tendency to cluster in groups. Such families as the Montmorencys, Condes, and the Houses of Nassau-Orange and Hohenzollern and the descendants of Gustavus Vasa of Sweden present a marked contrast to the House of Hanover and several other dynasties. The parent-offspring correlation based on 494 pairs was .3007 for mental and .2983 for moral qualities. Offspring and their grandparents gave a correlation of .161 for mental and .175 for moral qualities. The results obtained by Woods are in striking agreement with those of Pearson, Schuster and Elderton and other investigators, the agreement being all the more noteworthy since the material investigated differs so much from that of other studies. » A short paper by Woods on Heredity and the Hall of Fame offers additional evidence of transmitted ability; 26 out of 46 men in the Hall of Fame had close eminent relatives. "If all the eminent relatives of those in the Hall of Fame are counted, they average more than one apiece. Therefore, they are from 500 to 1,000 times as much related to distinguished people as the ordinary mortal is." no THE TREND OF THE RACE While it is recognized by nearly all competent students that mental ability is inherited, the precise method of its inheritance is not thoroughly established. Heritable characteristics present very different amounts of purely somatic or fluctuating varia- bility and it would seem not improbable a priori that superior mental endowments depending, as they do, upon the delicate and intricate organization of the brain may be subject to such varia- bility to an unusual degree. A child of good ancestry but exposed while in utero to the influence of malnutrition, alcohol, or the toxins of disease at the time when the delicate architecture of its brain is being built up may fall considerably short of its normal expectation hi intellectual development. But notwithstanding its intricate structure and the apparent ease with which the delicate balance of its organization might be upset, the nervous system is reproduced in successive generations with a remarkable degree of fidelity, both as regards its external connections and its internal mechanism. Possibly the fluctuating variations in the nervous system may be in part responsible for the fact that the parent- offspring and fraternal correlations in the inheritance of mental traits are usually found to be somewhat below those observed for various physical characters. But there are other reasons which might plausibly be assigned also. Although fluctuating variability may affect the basis of mentality somewhat more than it affects eye color or cephalic index it is not sufficient greatly to obscure the facts of mental inheritance, or to reduce very mark- edly the coefficients of mental resemblance between near relatives. Is the inheritance of mental traits in accordance with Men- del's law? The question is one of peculiar difficulty since mental traits,9 as a rule, do not present the sharply definable and discrete features that often characterize the physical peculiarities of the body. Common observation, however, yields abundant evidence of the alternative inheritance of mental characteristics. Almost every family includes children with different aptitudes, disposi- tions, and tastes that manifest themselves from early infancy. In their mental characteristics children resemble now the father, now the mother or some grandparent or other relative. Many THE INHERITANCE OF MENTAL ABILITY in readers will recall in this connection the much quoted lines of Goethe: " Vom Vater hab'ich die Statur, Des Lebens ernstes Fiihren: Vom Miitterchen die Frohnatur Und Lust zu fabuliren. Urahnherr war der Schonsten hold, Das spukt so hin und wieder. Urahnfrau liebte Schmuck und Gold, Das zuckt wohl durch die Glieder. Sind nun die Elemente nicht An dem Complex zu trennen; Was ist denn an dem ganzen Wicht Original zu nennen?" A number of investigators have come to the conclusion that superior intellectual ability as well as a number of special talents are transmitted as recessive characters. Hurst considers musical ability recessive, and Davenport from a study of numerous family records draws the same conclusion in regard to artistic ability, literary ability, mechanical skill, calculating ability and memory, all of which are held to be "unit characters that may occur in any combination." A careful consideration of the evidence adduced by Hurst and Davenport fails to convince me that the traits mentioned are recessive, and I am very decidedly of the opinion that they cannot be considered as unit characters in the usual sense of this term. It is not denied that Mendel's law holds for the transmission of mental as well as physical characteristics, but it is not proven that mental peculiarities are inherited in accordance with any simple Mendelian ratio. Neither is the evidence satis- factory that superior ability of various kinds is recessive to the normal condition. Such a conclusion is improbable a priori from what we know of the transmission of mental defect. If feeble- ii2 THE TREND OF THE RACE mindedness of various grades is recessive or partly recessive to normal mentality, and if the lower grades of feeble-mindedness tend to be recessive to the higher forms, we should expect to find average ability recessive to superior ability. It is not an easy matter, especially when dealing with incomplete records and with characters which (like musical and artistic ability) are strongly influenced by family traditions, to determine whether a given character is dominant or recessive. The test of recessiveness is given if the matings of parents both of whom have the character in question produce children all of whom inherit this character. But this test is never completely satisfied, although non-conform- ing cases might conceivably be explained. We should get much the same results if the character were dominant and several determiners were concerned in its produc- tion as hi the case of the dark color of various kinds of wheat and oats. On the whole, I believe the inheritance of exceptional ability is best explained — though I cannot here give in detail the evidence for this conclusion— on the assumption that it depends upon many factors which behave as dominants to those which give rise to ability of an inferior kind. The fact that parents of superior ability produce, though only occasionally, offspring which, although normal and healthy, never come near to measur- ing up to the intellectual capacity of their parents, is quite in accord with this view, while opposed to the theory of the recessive nature of superior mental endowments. Results of negro-white crosses yield confirmatory evidence of the same view. Perhaps the doctrine that genius or great ability is a sort of anomaly dependent upon some defect of the germ plasm has been fostered by the rather prevalent notion that genius tends to be associated with insanity. The doctrine expressed by Dryden in the lines; "Great wits are sure to madness near allied, And thin partitions do their bounds divide, " not only expressed a popular conviction, but the sober conclusion of many scientific men who have devoted especial attention to the THE INHERITANCE OF MENTAL ABILITY 113 problem. So eminent an authority on insanity as Dr. Henry Maudsley has stated, "It is no exaggeration to say that there is hardly ever a man of genius who has not insanity or nervous disorder of some form in his family." Moreau de Tours who did much to bring the relation between genius and insanity into prominence regarded genius as a "neurosis, or abnormal exalta- tion of the intellectual faculties." Lombroso, who has written most copiously on this topic, finds that men of genius commonly exhibit neuropathic traits indicative of a degenerate taint, and have many peculiarities in common with the actually insane. The foibles, eccentricities and weaknesses of men of genius have afforded a theme for almost endless comment. And it is not to be wondered at that those who contend that genius represents a sort of pathological variation have no difficulty in collecting a number of instances which fit their case. But a doctrine based on evi- dence especially selected to prove the thesis rests upon a very inadequate basis. What most of the writers who have accepted this doctrine have done is simply to collect all the cases that they could find in which men of eminence became insane or exhibited occasional eccentricities. However extensive and imposing such a collection of facts may be, it really proves nothing if one ex- cludes, as is usually done, the very numerous cases which do not bear out the theory. The obviously scientific method of attacking the problem would be to ascertain the percentage of insanity in a rather large random sample of people of superior ability, and to compare it with the percentage of insanity in the general population of corresponding limits of age. The only writer with whom I am acquainted who has ever attacked the subject by an impartial statistical method is Havelock Ellis in his Studies of British Genius. Selecting, according to certain rules, 1,030 names from the Dictionary of National Biography, he found that, even when slight or dubious cases were included, the percentage of men and women who became insane was not more than 4.2 per cent. A study of the parents of these British men of genius showed, contrary to Maudsley's statement, that insanity could not be ii4 THE TREND OF THE RACE traced in more than i per cent of the cases. "No doubt," says Ellis, "this result is below the truth, . . . the insanity of the parents must sometimes have escaped the biographer's notice. But even if we double the percentage to escape this source of error, the proportion still remains insignificant." A few years ago without being aware of the existence of Ellis' work, I suggested to one of my students, Mr. C. A. James, that he ascertain the percentage of insanity in chosen lists of great men. Taking the men from Galton's Hereditary Genius and a few shorter lists, it was found that pronounced cases of insanity occurred in less than 2 per cent. Cases of slight neuropathic disorders were not included because it was the aim to employ much the same standards for judging people insane as are em- ployed in collecting statistics of insanity in the general popula- tion. Over one-fifth per cent of the population in the United States are in hospitals for the insane according to the census for 1910. About one-third of this number is discharged every year, many of whom soon find their way back again, and since many others are cared for outside of hospitals, we may estimate conserv- atively in the light of statistics from other countries that at any given time one-third per-cent to one-half per cent of the popula- tion is actually insane to a degree that would warrant custodial care. When we limit our enquiry to the percentage of insane cases among people within the age limits in which a reputation may be gained for intellectual eminence, the percentage of insanity would naturally become several times greater. Then, if we further consider the number within these age limits who will develop insanity sometime during their lives we will obtain a much larger ratio still, but one which may be compared with the ratio of insanity found to occur among those who have become noted for their intellectual ability. What data we have on the subject indicates that insanity is rather less frequent among the intellec- tuals than the people at large. Certainly there is a much higher correlation between insanity and feeble-mindedness than there is between insanity and genius, unless we define genius in such a way as to include only those great men who are one-sided or "5 eccentric. If we did so we should have to exclude from the ranks of genius such men as Shakespeare, Goethe, Aristotle, Darwin and many others who occupy the very highest rank among the great men of the world. It is possible to find little eccentricities or idiosyncracies in such normal men as these, but a similar scrutiny of the life of almost anyone would reveal the same thing. One of the conclusions arrived at by Galton in his study of emi- nent men of science was that these men constituted a group distinguished for physical and mental health. One of the circumstances most commented upon in discussion of the inheritance of great men is the fact that the parents of many men of genius never exhibited any evidence of superiority which would lead one to suspect that they would give rise to a person of exceptional eminence. And we are reminded of Newton, Lincoln, Goethe, Shakespeare and others who appear to rise like great isolated mountain peaks out of the level plain of ordinary humanity. Sometimes it is suggested that such men are compar- able to the "sports" or mutations that appear from time to time in plants and animals. It should be borne in mind that greatness involves a peculiar complex of qualities the lack of any one of which may prevent an individual from achieving an eminent position. A great man has to do more than simply exist; he must accomplish labors of a particularly noteworthy kind before he is crowned with fame, and many a man of splendid natural endowments has fallen short of achieving greatness through some inherent weakness of char- acter or the lack of sufficient inspiration or driving force. Great men not only have to be born great; they also have to achieve greatness; and if they receive their proper recognition in the eyes of the world, greatness has to be thrust upon them besides. Whatever a man may be or do, his greatness as a matter of fact depends upon the position in which the judgment of the world places him. Great men, it is true, seem to rise higher than their source. Generally they come from ancestry considerably above medioc- rity. And I venture to express the opinion that a great man has n6 THE TREND OF THE RACE never been produced from parents of subnormal mentality. A great man is more apt to arise if both parents are of very superior ability than if only one parent is not above mediocrity. Where the great man appears to stand far above the level of his imme- diate ancestors it is due in large part, I believe, to the fact that each parent supplied peculiar qualities lacking in the other, assisted also by qualities from more remote ancestors which may have conspired to furnish the necessary complement of hereditary factors. In addition there may be an element of somatic varia- bility of a favorable kind. With the same inheritance two stalks of corn may attain quite different height due to environmental factors that influence growth. Forces that affect the pre-natal or early post-natal life of the human being may influence his development for good or ill to a considerable degree. After all it may be a relatively small thing that gives the finishing touch to the making of a great man. Heredity affords the necessary foundation; but other things may aid or check subsequent devel- opment. One thing is certain and that is you cannot make great- ness out of mediocrity or good ability out of inborn dullness by all the aids which environment and education or anything else can possibly offer. REFERENCES Ambros, R. Die Vererbung psychischer Eigenschaften. Arch. ges. Psych. 28, Lit. Ber., 1-33, 1913. Boas, F. The Mind of Primitive Man. Macmillan Co., N. Y., 1913. Constable, F. C. Poverty and Hereditary Genius: A Criticism of Mr. Francis Gallon's Theory of Hereditary Genius. Fifield, London, 1905. De Candolle, A. Histoire des Sciences et des Savants depuis deux SiScles. Geneva, 1873- Ellis, H. H. A Study of British Genius, London, 1904. Galton, F. Hereditary Genius. Macmillan Co., London, 1869. Reissued, 1914. English Men of Science: Their Nature and Nurture. Macmillan Co., London, 1874; Inquiries into Human Faculty. Macmillan Co., 1883. (Reprinted in Everyman's Library.) Galton, F., and Schuster, E. Noteworthy Families. J. Murry, London, 1906. Heymans, G., and Wiersma, E. Beitrage zur speciellen Psychologic auf Grund einer Massenuntersuchung. Zeit. f. Psych. 42, 81, and 258, 1906, and 43, 321; and 45, i, 1907. THE INHERITANCE OF MENTAL ABILITY 117 Pearson, K. On the Laws of Inheritance in Man. On the Inheritance of the Mental and Moral Characters in Man and its Comparison with the Physical Charac- ters. Trans. Anth. Inst. Gr. Brit, and Ireland, 1903, 179-237, and Biometrica, 3, 131-190, 1904. Peters, W. Ueber Vererbung psyohischer Fahigkeiten. Fortschr. d. Psych. 3, 185-382, 1915. Teubner, Leipzig, 1916. Reibmayr, A. Die Entwicklungsgeschichte des Talents und Genies. 2 Bande, Munich, 1908. Schuster, E., and Elderton, E. The Inheritance of Ability. Eugenics Lab. Mems., I, 1907. Starch, D. The Similarity of Brothers and Sisters in Mental Traits. Psych. Rev. 24, 235-238, 1917. The Inheritance of Abilities in School Studies. School and Society, 2, 608-610, 1917; Educational Psychology, Macmillan Co., N. Y., 1919. Thorndike, E. L. Heredity, Correlation and Sex Differences in School Abilities. Columbia Univ. Contr. to Philos., n, No. 2, 1903; The Measurement of Twins, Arch. Philos. Psych. Sci. Methods, i, 1905; Educational Psychology, Vol. 3, 1914; Eugenics, with Special Reference to Intellect and Character. Pop. Sci. Mon. 83, 125-138, 1913, also in Eugenics: Twelve Univ. Lectures, N. Y., 1914. Woods, F. A. Mental and Moral Heredity in Royalty. N. Y. 1906; Heredity and the Hall of Fame. Pop. Sci. Mon. 82, 445-452, 1913. American Men of Science and the Question of Heredity. Science, 1909, 205-210. (Remarks by Cattell, 1. c. 209, 210); Significant Evidence for Mental Heredity. Jour. Heredity, 8, 106-112, 1917. CHAPTER VI THE DECLINING BIRTH RATE "There is no importance in an increasing population; on the con- trary, if the population of Europe were stationary, it would be much easier to promote economic reform and to avoid war. What is re- grettable at present is not the decline of the birth rate in itself, but the fact that the decline is greatest in the best elements of the population. There is reason, however, to fear in the future three bad results: first, an absolute decline in the numbers of English, French, and Germans; secondly, as a consequence of this decline, their subjugation by less civilized races and the extinction of their tradition; thirdly, a revival of their numbers on a much lower plane of civilization, after generations of selection of those who have neither intelligence nor foresight. If this result is to be avoided, the present unfortunate selectiveness of the birth-rate must be somehow stopped." — Bertrand Russell, Why Men Fight, p. 197. "Desire not a multitude of unprofitable children, neither delight in ungodly sons. Though they multiply, rejoice not in them except that the fear of the Lord be with them." — Ecclesiasticus, 16, i, 2. "Our remote descendants will probably cease to propagate." — Godwin, Political Justice, II, p. 528. ONE of the most striking features of the recent biological history of man is the decline in the birth rate which has occurred in most civilized countries since the middle of the igth century. The decline began, however, at different dates in different coun- tries. In France it set in during the first part of the last century. In England and Germany it was not marked before the latter quarter of that century. In Russia and the Balkan States it still continues high, Bulgaria even showing a slight increase in the birth rate in recent years. The general facts in regard to the changes in the birth rate in Europe may be seen by consulting the following table: THE DECLINING BIRTH RATE 119 Table of the Annual Births per 1000 of the Population for Several Coun- tries of Europe •a "^ ?? G £ aj d •g>£ w Scotland 13 3 "a i— i 8 1 fe X 03 8 O Austria b 1 B t i— i fr 6 o fc Sweden ft a •a a. C/3 | JbC "o M T3 "o W 36.1 1871-76.. 35-5 35-o 27.4 25-5 38.9 39-3 42.8 36.9 30.2 30-7 50-3 32.6 1876-80. . 35-4 34-8 25-7 25-3 39-2 38-7 44-i 37-o 31-7 30.3 48.4 32-0 36.4 1881-85.. 33-5 33-3 24.0 24-7 37-o 38-1 44-6 37-8 31.2 29.4 49.2 36-7 30-9 34-8 1886-90. . 3i-4 3i-4 22.8 23.1 36-5 37-6 43-7 37-3 30.8 28.8 48.7 36.2 29.4 33-6 1891-95.. 3°-5 3°-5 22.9 22-4 36-3 37-3 42.0 35-9 30-3 27.4 48.2 35-8 29.1 32.9 1896-00.. 29.2 30.0 23.1 22.0 36.0 37-0 39-7 33-9 30.3 26.9 49-4 34-6 29.0 32.2 1901 28.5 29-5 22.7 22. 0 35-7 36-8 37-8 32-5 29.6 27.0 48.0 34-9 29.4 32-3 1905 27-3 28.6 23-4 20.6 33-o 34-o 36-1 32-7 27.4 25-7 44-8 35-2 26.2 30.8 1910 25-1 26.2 23-3 19.6 29.8 32.6 35-7 33-3 26. 1 24.7 33-i 23.8 28.6 1912 23-8 25-9 23.0 19.0 28.2 31.2 36.2 32.4 25.8 23-7 3i-5 23.2 28.1 1913 24.1 25-5 22.8 18.8 27.4 29.6 3i-7 25-4 23.1 30-3 28.2 1914 23-8 26.1 22.6 18.0 3i-i 25-3 22.8 29.6 1915 21.8 23-9 21.8 23.8 21 .6 There are no statistics on the birth rate of the United States as a whole. A few states have kept records of births for several years, but they have been admittedly incomplete, although in general they are improving. From various sources, however, it is evident that the birth rate in this country is declining at a rate quite comparable to that of the more civilized nations of Europe. Even with our enormous immigration the increase in the popula- tion of the United States has fallen far short of what it was pre- dicted to be by the statisticians of a half century ago who based their estimates on the rate of natural increase existing at that tune. Since we know the number of immigrants annually entering the country, we can estimate the proportion of our population that results from natural increase, and we can, therefore, form a rough estimate of the general birth rate. The United States census, while it gives no statistics on birth rates, enumerates the number of children under five years of age. The diminishing 120 THE TREND OF THE RACE number of individuals in this group forms a rough indication of the declining birth rate. This decline is indicated by the following table compiled by Professor Willcox,1 giving the number of chil- dren under five years of age for every 1,000 women between the ages of 1 6 and 44: Decreasing Proportion of Children in the United States Number of Children under 5 Date per 1,000 Women 16-44 Years of Age 1800 976 1810 976 1820 928 1830 877 1840 835 1850 699 1860 714 1870 649 1880 635 1890 554 1900 54i 1910 508 It has been calculated by Professor Willcox that if this rate of diminution continues for a century and a half there will be no more children produced. The proportion of children here indi- cated would naturally be affected by foreign immigration which consists largely of adults. This would tend to decrease the relative proportion of children, but the large number of foreign women among these immigrants who are of child-bearing age, would tend in a few years to make the number of children in- crease. In other words, if foreign immigration were checked the proportion of children might not after all be greatly reduced, if at all. During the past few centuries, and especially in the iQth cen- 1 Pubs. Am. Stat. Ass. 15, 1-15, 1916 THE DECLINING BIRTH RATE 121 tury, the population of most civilized countries has considerably, and in some cases very greatly increased. The population of England and Wales between 1801 and 1911 has more than quad- rupled; that of Scotland has nearly trebled. In the 60 years between 1851 and 1911 the population in Russia has increased from 55,818,000 to 105,651,000; in Austria from 17,525,000, to 28,568,000; in Hungary from 13,192,000, to 20,851,000 and in Prussia from 16,935,000 to 40,163,000. Of all countries on the continent of Europe, France has shown the slowest rate of in- crease, and in late years the population has been nearly station- ary. Ireland since 1851 has suffered an actual decrease of popu- lation owing largely to the low birth rate and the extensive migration of her people to America. The rapid increase in the population of the United States is due to the circumstances that produce a rapid increase in most new countries which have been opened up to settlement by the white race. The early settlers, being generally of a hardy and prolific stock, living for the most part under wholesome condi- tions, increased at an unusually rapid rate. Their numbers being continually augmented by a rapidly increasing flow of immigrants produced in a few centuries one of the most populous nations of the earth. In Australia and New Zealand, in which we meet with conditions more or less similar to those found in the United States, there has been a similar rapid increase of population, but owing to a more discriminating control of immigration the stock has remained of a more homogeneous character. The two chief factors in the increase of population in most civilized countries are (i) the great industrial development whereby countries are able to support a much larger number of people than formerly, and (2) the gradual reduction in the rate of mortality which has been effected through advances in medi- cal science, and especially hygiene. Aside from gains or losses through migration, the changes that occur in the number of inhabitants of any country depend upon the relative proportion of births and deaths. Notwithstanding the decline in the birth rate, the natural increase of several countries is higher than it was 122 THE TREND OF THE RACE a quarter of a century ago, owing to the fact that the birth rate has not decreased so rapidly as the death rate. In all countries increase of population has sooner or later to come to a standstill. For a while the surplus humanity may find an outlet by emigrating into new territory. Increased means of production may for a while keep pace with the growing numbers of inhabitants. But in time, growth of population must bring about its own check. While we must all recognize this fact, the "population ques- tion" does not seem so portentous as it did several years ago. The Malthusian doctrine, with its inevitable tendency of human- ity to increase beyond the means of sustenance and its various checks to increase, such as war, pestilence and famine, seemed to promise little but a gloomy future of struggle and hardship for the majority of mankind. It is now becoming probable, however, that the automatic checks will not depend so much upon the increase of the death rate as the decrease of the birth rate. There is no longer ground for fearing the scourges that seemed to be the inevitable consequence of a natural law of propagation. There is perhaps more reason to be apprehensive lest the race should fail to reproduce itself. For most countries there is no immediate danger of race suicide, although it may very well happen that we shall need to be seriously concerned in the future over this possibility. The birth rate in some countries has shown a continually accelerating descent. In Germany during the first ten years of the 2oth cen- tury the birth rate fell more than in the preceding thirty. The decline has been especially rapid in the cities, the fall in Berlin being more rapid than the fall of the death rate. Notwithstanding the rapid increase in the population of Germany, there are several German writers who have already sounded the note of alarm lest the rapidly falling birth rate prove a serious menace to the welfare of the empire. As Borntrager has remarked, "The ever more rapid and more intensive an4 exten- sive decline in the birth rate which has been deliberately brought about in Germany, is one of the most threatening occurrences of THE DECLINING BIRTH RATE 123 modern times, and one which must be absolutely stopped at the earliest moment if we do not slowly but surely go to destruction." Germany, however, is apparently in no greater danger of race suicide than several of her rivals. It is from France that we hear the greatest lamentations over decreasing fecundity, because the danger to national security from this source is imminent. "Doit elk mourir?" "Le suicide d'un race," "Le Probleme de la depopu- lation" are the titles of some of the recent publications whose names are suggestive of the pessimistic tone of their contents. Whether the population of France will slowly decrease, no one can say. For the sake of the world as well of France it is to be hoped that some way will be found to check this decline in the birth rate of a people who have contributed so much to the advancement of civilization. Other nations are rapidly approaching the birth rate of France, but if their fecundity does not sink below what is necessary to maintain their population there is nothing to regret in this fact. When the world becomes as full of people as it can well support, it would indeed be a great misfortune for the birth rate to con- tinue high. When the globe is supporting its maximum popula- tion the number would have to be kept within bounds either by increased mortality, or by decreased fecundity, and the latter method is certainly the less disagreeable. The chief defense that is made of the former method with all the misery it entails, is that it affords an indispensable means of racial advance. In all ages the pressure of population with its consequent tendency of peoples to overflow their boundaries has been a potent cause of war, — in fact it has made war almost inevitable. It may be urged with much reason that the birth rate of superior peoples should be kept high in order that they may conquer and supplant inferior types. The effect of such conflict under modern conditions would be to lead, through the elimina- tion or amalgamation of subject peoples, to an eventual domin- ance of a comparatively homogenous race. When this point is reached conflict between political groups of much the same blood would have much less biological significance than it has to-day. i24 THE TREND OF THE RACE There is no doubt that the dominant tendencies at the present time are in the direction of racial uniformity rather than diver- gence, and that whether nations remain at peace or engage in war the process of unification will still go on. The ultimate result in any case will depend largely on the relative birth rates of superior and inferior types. The racial character of the survivors will doubtless be influenced according as the final unification will be effected forcibly or peaceably, but which outcome would be the more desirable from the eugenic standpoint is by no means a simple problem. Conflict may be defended as a means of insuring the predominance of the best racial elements. Whether or not it will do so, or whether it is the only or the best method of attaining this end is a complex question, which I shall not attempt to dis- cuss here. Nor is it my intention to touch upon the difficult ethical and political aspects of the effort to maintain a high birth rate, which characterizes the policy of militaristic nations. Cer- tain it is that a high birth rate with the temptations which it brings for nations to overflow their boundaries and encroach upon neighboring territories has led to frequent wars in the past, and will doubtless continue to be s source of strife in the future. The different rates of increase of different nations are bound to bring many difficult situations whose adjustment will seriously tax the resources of those who would maintain the peace of the world.1 A most important feature of the decline of the birth rate is the fact that the fecundity of different classes of people is very unequally affected. In the United States we have a marked decline of the birth rate among people of American parentage, while the immigrants who, up to the period of the present war have been arriving on our shores in ever increasing numbers, still continue to produce large families. Owing to the general lack of birth statistics in the United States, estimates must be based upon the age distribution of the population at different decades, and the birth statistics from a few states in which birth * As Prof. Ross has remarked, "The real enemy of the dove of peace is not the eagle of pride or the vulture of greed, but the stork." — Changing America. THE DECLINING BIRTH RATE 125 registration has recently become compulsory and a few special investigations relative to this subject. In Rhode Island in 1905, 82.5 per cent of foreign born married women were mothers (15.5 per cent childless), while in the native American wives 71.6 per cent were mothers (28.4 per cent childless). The average number of children born to foreign born married women was 3.35, while the average number among native born married women was 2.06. Since 1885 the average number of children per foreign born married woman decreased from 4.69 to 3.35, or 28.6 p£i* cent while the average number per native born married woman fell from 2.81 to 2.06, or 26.7 per cent. In Massachusetts in 1900-1905 there were 143 births per 1,000 foreign born women of 15-44 years, while among native born women of the same age limits there were only 63 births. Mr. A. H. Young finds in New Hampshire a situation very similar to what occurs in Massachusetts and Rhode Island. At ages under 20 years the birth rate of foreign born wives exceeded that of native born by only about one-fourth, but at ages from 25 to 34 years the birth rate of foreign born wives was over double that of the native wives. The birth rates of married women of child- bearing ages are shown in the following table taken from data of theU. S. Census: Fecundity of Women in New Hampshire 1890 igoo Native white married women, 15-45 years 7C 717 36,820 Children under i year from native born mothers.. . . 3.S71; 3 o8< Per cent IO.O 10 8 Foreign born white married women, 15-45 years II,7Q3 16,00"? Children under i year from foreign born mothers 2,7t;o 4.,OS4. Per cent 23.4. 2C.2 The state registration statistics give the average annual number of births per thousand married women of 15-45 years from 1898-1902 as 115.3 for the native born women, and 236.8 for the foreign born women. The presence of a large French- 126 THE TREND OF THE RACE Canadian element (50 per cent of the foreign born) tends to raise the birth rate of the foreign born population. In their report on infant mortality in Manchester, N. H., in 1914, Duncan and Duke state that, " although foreign born constitute only about 42 per cent of the total population, foreign born mothers give birth to 67 per cent of the 1,643 infants." In New York City, according to the report of the New York Department of Health for 1909, the birth rate per thousand of native born women is 28.26, while for an equal number of foreign born women it is 109.46, or nearly four times as large. ^ Hoffmann finds from a study of a number of genealogies of American families, that the average number of children per family sank from nearly 7 in the i8th century to nearly 5 in the first half of the 1 9th century, and further decreased to less than 3 in the latter part of the 1 9th century. The studies of Crum have yielded additional evidence of much the same character. A study was made of the genealogical records of 22 American families contain- ing 12,722 wives and 61,115 children. The chief results are sum- marized in the following table : The Decreasing Size of American Families Before 1700 1700-49 1750-99 1800-49 1850-69 1870-79 No. of children per wife 7-37 1.81 50.36% 1.81% 21.4 6.83 i-74 42.89% 4-ii% 21.7 6-43 1.88 40-50% 4.98% 22. 4-94 4.07 29.17% 7-96% 22.3 3-47 5.91 I5-7I 13-98% 22.9 2-77 8.10 8-57 18% 23.1 Percentage of childless wives . . Mothers with 6-9 children .... Mothers with only i child Average age of marriage . . . The families whose records are included in published gene- alogies represent the older American stock which may be repro- ducing more slowly than that of more recent native Americans. Benjamin Franklin estimated the average number of children in an American family in the i8th century at 7, and from the study of a number of genealogies I have arrived at approximately the same result. THE DECLINING BIRTH RATE 127 It is unfortunate that the data collected by the Censuses of 1890, 1900 and 1910 on the relative fecundity of native and foreign stocks have never been completely tabulated. The Immigration Commission has made an analysis of a part of these data from certain fairly representative regions of the country. The returns used were taken from the Census of 1903. For purposes of comparison a somewhat arbitrary measure of fecun- dity was employed, namely, the number of children of women who had been married from ten to twenty years. Of these there were 78,432. These comprise women from various sections of the country both urban and rural. The regions studied included the state of Rhode Island, the cities Cleveland, 0., and Minneapolis, 48 mainly rural counties of Ohio, and 21 mainly rural counties of Minnesota. In general the women of native white parentage had 2.7 children, while those of foreign parentage had 4.4. The women of foreign parentage were divided into 2 classes, (i) those who migrated to this country, and (2) those both of whose parents were immigrants, parents of mixed native and foreign blood not being considered. Of the first class the average number of chil- dren was 4.7, while that of the second was 3.9, the second genera- tion of the foreign born showing a diminution of fecundity though retaining a higher birth rate than the women of native American stock. The percentage with no children was, foreign born first generation, 5.3 per cent, foreign born second generation, 6.3 per cent, native born white 13.1 per cent, negroes 20.5 per cent. Notwithstanding the high percentage of childless wives among the negroes, the average number of children, 3.1, was greater than that of the native white American. Both native and foreign women were found to be considerably more prolific in the rural districts than in the cities. The fertility of foreign born women varied markedly according to their nationality. This may be seen by consulting the follow- ing table giving the average number of children per each wife of foreign extraction: 128 THE TREND OF THE RACE Fertility of Foreign Born Stocks in the United States Italians 4.9 Norwegians 4.7 Bohemians 5 . Austrians 4.6 Finns 5.3 French 4.3 Russians 5.4 Germans 4.3 French-Canadians . 5.6 Irish 4.4 English-Canadians . 3.5 Swedes 4.2 Poles 6.2 Scotch 3.6 English 3.4 The peoples from southern and central Europe show a higher fecundity than those from Great Britain and the northern part of the continent. For most cases this is true of the second genera- tion of foreigners as well as the first. Mr. Hill who worked over the data referred to grants that in the southern states the families of the American born may be of larger size. It is questionable, however, if they would be enough larger to make good the losses through death. When we consider that with our present death and marriage rates nearly four children per married couple are required to replace the preceding generation, we are compelled to conclude that, taken as a whole, the stock represented by American born parents is probably not reproducing itself. It is the aliens and their immediate children who are responsible for the increase of our population. If these were deducted from our numbers we would probably see that the population of the United States would show an actual decrease. Among the people we commonly call Americans race suicide would probably be found to be con- siderably more rapid than in France. We are losing such stock as is represented by the Mayflower descendants, the first families of Virginia, and the daughters of the revolution. New England, once so prolific in typical American manhood and womanhood, is now largely filled up with recent immigrants and their children. Recently in connection with one of my students, Miss C. M. Doud, I have been studying the decline of the birth rate in one important group of American THE DECLINING BIRTH RATE 129 stock, the Society of Mayflower Descendants.1 By means of questionnaires we have obtained data concerning families of the California branch of this Society. The size of the family was found to decrease with the recency of the birth of the parents. The size of the family of parents born in successive periods is shown in the following table: Declining Birth Rate of the Mayflower Descendants Husbands &• Husbands &• wives born Husbands born between Husbands &• wives both Husbands born between wives both born between Husbands &• wives both between 1810-1830 1830-1840 wives after 1840 between 1840-1860 1850-1860 wives after 1860 1860-1880; families probably between 1870-1880 completed No. of children 6.0 5.6 3.0 fj (4 families) [27 families) (8 families) (45 families) (20 families) Mother's family 9-5 4.52 4.28 3-54 3-82 Father's family 8.0 5.15 5.63 It is possible that a few children may yet be born to the parents of the last age group, viz., those in which the mothers were born between 1870 and 1880. As only 8 of the mothers in this group were less than 45 years of age, and as all of them are over 38, the children from this group will be very few. Perhaps the average number of children per family of the Mayflower descendants is somewhat larger than our results indicate, but it is not probable that the number of children would be more than two and a half per married couple, a number obviously insufficient to main- tain the stock. Whatever we may say for the eugenic qualities of our citizens of foreign extraction, and many of them doubtless represent an excellent inheritance, we cannot but regard the disappearance of such stock as the Adams, Lowells, Edwards, and Lees as noth- ing short of a grave national misfortune. The most serious menace to racial welfare, not only in America, but in most civilized lands, is the relative sterility of superior 1 Jour. Hered., Vol. 9, 296-300. 130 THE TREND OF THE RACE types of humanity. On the other hand, those who are mentally defective or subnormal tend, through their lack of restraint and foresight, to be unusually prolific. The records of the Jukes, Kallikaks, Nams, Hill Folk, Tribe of Ishmael and other notorious defective strains show that these degenerates are distinguished for unusual fecundity which more than offsets their high infant mortality. Dr. Wilmarth in reporting on some cases of the transmission of mental defect has incidentally chosen cases which illustrate the high fecundity which is only too prevalent in this class: "Two children from one family are under our care. From the sheriff, who brought the children, and an intelligent neighbor, I learned that the mother was weak mentally. The father seldom worked but managed to raise his family on what he could obtain in other ways. Not one of the eighteen children was a desirable member of society. The girls drifted into disreputable lives; the boys were idlers and thieves with no moral sense. I know a couple in Pittsburgh, Pa., whose nine children were all idiots of low grade. A family in eastern Wisconsin, the father and mother are both feeble-minded; at least 7 of the 8 children are imbeciles; 5 we have cared for. A couple in this state have nine children, all subnormal, and there are several, to my knowledge, in collateral branches of the family. One feeble-minded woman, now removed from the state, had by different men 18 children in 19 years, she alleges. I have seen only three of her children. These were feeble-minded and especially defective in moral sense." 1 1 Dr. C. T. Ewart (Jour. Mental Science, 56, Oct., 1910) states that "Dr. Ettie Sayer, in the course of her work for the London City Council, studied the family history of 100 normal families and 100 families where mental defectives were found. The normal families averaged five in number, while families showing abnormality averaged 7.6, or nearly one-third as many more." It is not altogether clear from the account how the average number in the normal families was arrived at. If 100 families were chosen and the average number of children computed, it would not form a fair basis of comparison with the fecundity of the stocks containing mental defectives. Taking the mental defectives, or any lot of individuals however characterized, it is probable that they will be found to come from families of more than the average size. If we draw 100 people at random from the general population, we are apt to get a preponderating number from families of relatively large size, since these present the largest number of individuals to draw from. If we take 100 families and find the average number of individuals they contain, this THE DECLINING BIRTH RATE 131 Whetham remarks1 that, "Feeble-minded women, whether married or unmarried, are remarkably fertile. The workhouse records frequently note that five, six, or seven children have been born before the mother is twenty-five years of age, and she herself may have commenced child-bearing at fifteen years of age or even younger. Most of these children inherit the mental condition of their parents, and where both parents are known to be feeble- minded, there is no record of their having given birth to a normal child. In one workhouse there were sixteen feeble-minded women who had produced between them one hundred and sixteen chil- dren with a large proportion of mental defect. Out of one such family of fourteen, only four could be trained to do remunerative work." "With regard to the fertility of feeble-minded stocks, it has been pointed out that the feeble-minded children from the degen- erate families, who use the special schools in London, come, some- times two or more at a time, from households averaging about seven offspring, whereas the average number of children in the families who now use the public elementary schools is about four." In England until recently (the evil is still not entirely abated) there has been a very effective system for encouraging the prop- agation of feeble-minded stocks. Girls born in the workhouse were kept as public charges in homes or industrial schools until they were 16, when they were turned loose upon the world. With their generally poor inheritance combined with unfavorable conditions for developing whatever germs of mentality or strength of character they may have possessed, it is no wonder that a large number will be less than the average size of the families from which we draw our 100 individuals at random. The assumption that averages arrived at by these two methods are comparable is a fallacy which is very common in writings on eugenics, and it is one that very easily escapes notice. In the present case, if the size of the families from which mental defectives came were compared, not with the average size of normal families, but with the average size of the families from which normal individuals came (which is a very different thing) the results would, other things equal, be indicative of differences in the fecundity of the two stocks. It may be that the comparison was made by the latter method in the investigation referred to, although it is not so stated. 1 Introduction to Eugenics, p. 26. 132 THE TREND OF THE RACE proportion of these girls drift into immoral lives. They fre- quently return to the workhouse to have their children who, after being raised at public expense, are then liberated to repeat much the same performance. The relation between fertility and social status has been studied by a number of investigators. Heron found in London that the districts which afford evidence of prosperity have a low birth rate, while districts in which indications of poverty are common have a high birth rate. It was estimated that while the death rates in the latter districts were higher than in the former, the difference was not great enough to counteract the greater fecundity of the poorer classes. Moreover, Heron showed that sixty years ago the relative fecundity of the classes dealt with was the reverse of what it is at the present time. Bertillon 1 gives the following tabulation of the birth rates per thousand women between 15 and 50 years of age in various sections of four European cities: Fertility of Women in Different Districts of Large Cities Paris Berlin Vienna London Very Poor Districts. . . . 108 157 200 147 Poor " .... 95 129 164 140 Comfortable " 72 114 iSS 107 Very " " .... 65 96 153 107 Rich " .... S3 63 107 87 Very Rich " 34 47 7i 63 While the figures given may not exactly represent the birth rates of these districts, they doubtless form a fairly close approxi- mation of them. The birth rate of Paris and Berlin measured by the number of annual births per thousand married women is shown in the following table: 1 Bull. Inst. Internal. Stat., n, 163-176, 1899. THE DECLINING BIRTH RATE 133 Number of Children per 1,000 Married Women in Different Urban Districts Paris Berlin Very Poor Districts. 14.2 2T/1 Poor " 128 198 Comfortable " .... TOO TQ2 Very " " 06 172 Rich " Od. •TA? Very Rich " ... 6c iftj 121 That similar conditions prevail in American cities is indicated by statistics of the birth rates of different classes in Philadelphia.1 In expensive residence districts the rate is 18; in the well-to-do districts, 21.4. per thousand; among the American born factory workers it is 24.5, while among the worst paid immigrants it is 41.9. The death rate in the expensive wards is 14.5 per thousand; while it is higher in the slums, viz., 20.5, it does not nearly make up for the difference in the birth rate. It is not easy to compare the eugenic worth of the American and foreign born elements of our population, and it would be a great error to measure the eugenic value of a stock in terms of wealth or social position. Many people of the most desirable types of inheritance can boast of very little of either of these desirable possessions. No small proportion of poverty in our present economic regime is due to accident, illness or other cir- "cumstances for which the unfortunate victims are in no way to blame. Nevertheless, it is undeniably true that many people are poor because their innate shiftlessness, mental inferiority, and unreliability makes them practically unemployable. Such persons, and a good share of their progeny, tend to remain in the ranks of the poverty stricken classes, unable to seize any oppor- tunity that may present itself for improving their condition. It is not uncommon to find pauper pedigrees extending through several generations. People of good stock unless hampered by ill fortune 1 S. Nearing, North American Rev. 197, 629, 1912. 134 THE TREND OF THE RACE continually rise out of the ranks of poverty, but those of shiftless habits, dull mentality, and little ambition constitute the kind of poor who are always with us. A cooperative study made by Pearson and several collaborators (Elderton, Barrington, Lammotte and DeLaski) throws consid- erable light on the relation between fecundity and the possession of qualities of a socially valuable kind. Several of Pearson's colleagues found in the laboring population of English towns that there was a fairly high correlation between large families and dirty homes (.41), low rent (.31), poor food (.33), insufficient food (.35), low wages of father (.32) and irregularity of employ- ment. We may explain the low rent and the poor and insufficient food of large families as, in part at least, a consequence of their large size. There seems, however, no good reason to suppose that the possession of a large family would have any effect in lowering the wages of the father. Wages are at least a rough measure of the efficiency of the individual worker, and the fact that the men who are poorly paid have a larger number of children than those who receive better wages indicates that the less efficient types have the highest degree of fecundity.1 Miss Elderton in her elaborate report on the English birth rate says of the artisan classes: "The poorest classes of all, those who cannot provide for themselves but seek public dispensaries and maternity char- ities for attendance, do not appear to limit their families, for very many have large families running up to thirteen or more." Dunlop gives data from Scotland based on the number of children per marriage lasting for 15 years, and in which the wives were between 22 and 27 years of age at the time of marriage. 1 Mr. S. Johnson in studying the fecundity of British workmen found that those with regular employment had on the average in 1908, 2.86 and in 1909-10, 2.71 children, while those with irregular employment had in these years 3.12 and 3.26 children. Jour. Roy. Stal. Soc. 75, 534-550, 1911-1912. THE DECLINING BIRTH RATE 135 Fertility of Classes in Scotland According to Occupation Crofters 7 . 04 Miners 7 . 01 Agricultural laborers 6 . 42 General laborers 6 . 29 Ministers 4 . 33 Advertisers and solicitors 3.92 Physicians and surgeons 3.91 The marriages considered are naturally more fertile than the average, but they show the difference in the fertility of people of different stations. A good deal of interesting data has been collected in the last few years concerning the dwindling families of college graduates, and the general conclusion quite uniformly arrived at, and one from which the data leave no opportunity for escaping, is that the college-bred elements of the population are not nearly reproducing themselves. Several years ago President Elliott pointed with alarm to the low birth rate of the graduates of Harvard Univer- sity. J. C. Phillips, in the Harvard Graduates Magazine for September, 1916, has presented a detailed study of the birth rates of Harvard and Yale graduates. Taking the records of classes not later than 1890, to insure dealing mainly with completed families, he finds that about 25 per cent of the Harvard graduates never marry; of those who do, 21 per cent are childless, and that more than three children to a family is a rare occurrence. The decline of the birth rate in Harvard and Yale is shown in the following table: 136 THE TREND OF THE RACE Number of Children in Families of Harvard and Yale Graduates HARVARD Year Children per Married Couple Average per Graduate i8si-6o. . 3 . 13 1.68 1861-70 2 .62 i. 08 1871-80 2 . 23 i .6* 1881-90 2 .06 I. CC YALE i8<;i-6o. 3 . 32 2 . S3 1861—70.. . . 2 .60 2 . l6 1871-80.. . 2 23 I .71? 1881-90 2 .04 I . C? Birth rates for the graduates of Wesleyan University are given by Nicolson1 as follows: The Diminishing Families of the Graduates of Wesleyan University Children per Family of I KUT Men Graduates Women Graduates 1833—4.0. . 4AQ 1841—^0. . 3 4.6 1851-60.. 3 27 1861-70 2 QO 1871-80 2 S3 2 6 1881-90 I 96 2 1891-00 I 42 I 37 1901—10 .8l •••J/ 60 The numbers for the last two decades are too small since the families are not complete in either case, but the dwindling of the families is nevertheless evident if these decades are not considered. 1 Science, N. S. 36, 74-76, 1912. THE DECLINING BIRTH RATE 137 The decline of the birth rate in two other colleges is shown in the following table: Families of Graduates of Middlebury and New York Universities Number of Children Year Middlebury N. F. University 1803—00. . e 6 1810—19 4 8 1820-29 4. 1 1830-^9. . 7.0 4 O 1840-40. . ^ .4 3 2 18^0— 50. 2 Q 2 O 1860—69. . . . 2 8 2 S 1870—74. . 2 •? 187^-70. . i 8 In general, the graduates of women's colleges show a lower birth rate than the graduates of colleges for men. The marriage rate for women graduates is low. Miss Nearing1 on the basis of an extended study, says "College women do not marry probably in fifty cases out of one hundred given sufficient time out of college." The following table from Professor Amy Hewes gives the marriage and birth rates of the graduates of Mt. Holyoke College: The Families of Mt. Holyoke Graduates Dates of Graduation Per Cent Single Per Cent Married Children per Married Graduate Children per Graduate 1842-49. . 14.6 8^.4 2.77 2 . 37 24. <( 7C tr 3 & 2. "I1? 1860-69 60 0 2 .64 i .60 1870-79 . . 40. 6 ^0 4 2.7S i. 6^ 1880-89 42 .4 S7.6 2 . ^4 I .A6 l8oO-Q2 . . 334~34°> 1912. The Significance of a Declining Birth Rate. Prudential Press, Newark, N. J., 1914. Holmes, S. J., and Doud, C. M. The Approaching Extinction of the Mayflower Descendants. Jour. Hered. 9, 296-300, 1918. Johnson, R. H., and Stutzmann, B. Wellesley's Birth Rate. Jour. Hered. 6, 250-253, 1915. Kiaer, A. N. Statistische Beitrage zur Beleuchtung der ehelichen Fruchtbarkeit. Vidensk. Selsk. Skr. n, Hist. Filos. Kl. 1903-04. Christiana, 1904-1905. Mombert, P. Ueber den Riickgang der Geburten und Sterbeziffer in Deutschland. Arch. f. Sozialwiss, 34, 794-862; Studien zur Bevolkerungsbewegung in Deutschland, Braun'sche Hofbuchdruckeri, Kalsruhe, 1907, pp. 280. i42 THE TREND OF THE RACE National Council of Public Morals. The Declining Birth-Rate. Button and Co., N. Y., 1917. Nearing, N. S. Education and Fecundity. Pubs. Am. Stat. Ass. 14, 156-174, 1914-15. Nearing, S. Social Decadence. North Am. Rev. 197, 629-639, 1913. Newsholme, A. Vital Statistics, 3d ed., London, 1899; The Declining Birth Rate, New Tracts for the Times Series. Moffatt, Yard and Co., N. Y., 191 1. Newsholme, A., and Stevenson, T. H. C. The Decline of Fertility in the United Kingdom and Other Countries as shown by the Corrected Birth Rates, Jour. Roy. Stat. Soc., 69, 34-87, 1906. Oldenberg, K. Ueber den Riickgang der Geburten-und Sterbeziffer. Arch. f. Sozialwiss. u. Politik. 32, 319-377 and 33, 401-499, 1911. Pearson, K. On the Effect of a Differential Fecundity on Degeneracy. Biometrica, 7, 1910. The Groundwork of Eugenics. Eugen. Lab. Le,ct. Series, 2, 1909; On the Scope and Importance to the State of the Science of National Eugenics, 1. c. i, 3d ed., 1911; The Problem of Practical Eugenics, 1. c. 5, 1912. Popenoe, P. The Increase of Ignorance. Jour. Hered. 8, 178-183, 1917; Eugenics and College Education. School and Society, 6, 438-441, 1917. Prinzing, F. Die eheliche Fruchtbarkeit in Deutschland. Zeit. F. Sozialwiss, 4, 33-38, 90-100, 188-192, 1901; Die sterile Ehen. 1. c., H. i, 47-51, H. 2, 116- 124, 1904. Report of the New South Wales Royal Commission on the Decline of the Birth Rate. Vol. i, Sydney, 1904. Sprague, R. J. Education and Race Suicide. Jour. Heredity, 6, 158-162, 1915. Statistique Internationale du Mouvement de la Population, Annies, 1901-1910, Paris, Imprimerie Nationale, 1913 Theilhaber, F. A. Das sterile Berlin. Berlin, 1913, pp. 165. Thompson, W. S. Population: A Study in Malthusianism, Columbia Univ. N. Y., 1015. Race Suicide in the United States. Am. Jour. Phys. Anthrop. 3, 97- 146, 1920. Vecchio, G. S. del. Su gli Analfabeti e le Nascite nelle varie Parti d'ltalia. Bologna, 1894. Whetham, W. C. D. and C. D. Extinction of the Upper Classes, igth Century, 66, 97-108, 1909. Also works previously cited, The Family and the Nation, Heredity and Society, and Introduction to Eugenics. Willcox, W. F. The Change in the Proportion of Children in the United States, etc., Pubs. Am. Stat. Ass. 12, 490-499, 1909-11; The Nature and Significance of the Changes hi the Birth and Death Rates in Recent Years, 1. c. 15, 1-15, 1916; Differential Fecundity. Jour. Heredity, 5, 141-148, 1914. Fewer Births and Fewer Deaths: What do they mean? 1. c. 7, 119-127, 1916. Woodruff, C. E. Expansion of Races. Rebman Co., N. Y. 1909. Young, A. A. The Birth Rate in New Hampshire. Pubs. Am. Stat. Ass. 9, 263- 291, 1905. Yule, G. U. On the Changes of Marriage and Birth Rates in England and Wales during the Past Half Century with an Inquiry as to their Probable Causes. Jour. Roy. Stat. Soc. 69, 88-132, 1906. (Discussion, 133-147.) CHAPTER VII THE CAUSES OF THE DECLINING BIRTH RATE "Of the thirty-eight physicians [in New York] who were willing to discuss the matter I asked: 'What do you find to be the ideal American family? ' Thirty said, ' Two children, a boy and a girl ; ' Six said ' One child.' One said, ' Having a family is not an American ideal; ' and one said, 'Five or six.'" — L. K. Commander, The American Idea. "I wouldn't have another for the world. I had Lucy when I was first married and didn't know any better." — Mrs. C. of New York. THE practical problem of remedying the evils of the present differential birth rate requires for its solution a knowledge of the causes by which this condition is brought about. Spencer attrib- uted the low birth rate among the intellectual classes to the "antagonism between Genesis and Individuation," — the utiliza- tion of vital energy in cerebration being supposed to diminish, by a sort of compensating loss, the power of producing offspring. He admits that " special proofs that in man great cerebral expendi- ture diminishes or destroys generative power, are difficult to obtain." Certainly cases enough might be adduced in which men of high intellectual power have shown no lack of fertility, but among women it seems more probable that intense and continued application to mental work might produce at least a partial sterility. A half century ago large families among the intellectual classes were not uncommon. The rapid decline of the birth rate within a couple of generations can scarcely depend upon any deep seated organic changes occurring in the human species. Our changed modes of life with their greater drafts upon nervous energy may have had a certain effect in reducing the natural fecundity of the female sex, but it is questionable if much of the decline in the birth rate can be attributed to this cause. In interpreting statistics concerning the number of births per thousand of the population, we must consider the effect of de- 143 144 THE TREND OF THE RACE creasing mortality. If people live longer, there is naturally a larger number of them alive at any given time. If each family always produced the same number of children the relative num- ber of births per thousand would decrease as the number of people alive at any given time increased. Therefore, with the same marriage rate and the same degree of fecundity, a commu- nity with a decreasing mortality would show a decreasing birth rate, were we to measure birth rates, as is usually done, by the annual number of births per thousand inhabitants. Marriage rates estimated, as they commonly are, by the num- ber of marriages made annually per thousand of the population, would be changed by both the birth rate and the death rate. With a given number of marriages per annum, the rate per thousand of the population would decrease with an increased birth rate and increase with an increased death rate. In consid- ering the relation of marriage, birth and death rates it must be borne in mind that each of these affects the others as expressed by the method usually employed. Changes in the birth rate arising from variations in the rate and age of marriage and the death rate may be partly avoided by employing the so-called "corrected births rates" in which allowance is made for changes in these factors according to the method employed by Newsholme and Stevenson or some similar mode of procedure. An index of birth rates for many purposes more satisfactory is afforded by the number of children born annually to every 1000 women of child-bearing age. What method of enumeration is the best depends on the particular use one wishes to make of the data. Statistics on the birth rate may also be vitiated to a certain degree by immigration and emigration. In the United States, not only foreign immigration, but the frequent emigration of our people from one state to another introduces a source of error into the statistics compiled by the several states. In addition, the vital statistics of our states suffer from other sources of inaccu- racy due to the way in which they are compiled. Data on births are faulty owing to incomplete birth registration. Only a few THE CAUSES OF. THE DECLINING BIRTH RATE 145 states make a serious attempt to compel such registration by law. While physicians and midwives may comply with the regulation for reporting births, there are many children born without attend- ance, and which, therefore, are frequently not registered. More care has been taken recently in compiling data on births with the result that a larger number are reported. The rise in the birth rate of several of our states is not improbably due largely to this cause. Massachusetts has for many years compiled data on births and has passed laws compelling birth registration, but the U. S. Children's Bureau has made a thorough study of a limited district in that state with the following results: "99 births were found to have been registered twice, 10 births were registered which actually occurred outside the limits of the municipality, 10 births occurred in another year from that in which they were registered;" 123 births for one reason or another were not regis- tered. The errors, which were considerable, happened to offset each other fairly well since the record showed only 14 fewer births than actually occurred. The birth rate is undoubtedly affected by changes in the age of marriage and in the frequency of marriage, but it is evident that neither of these causes can account for more than a small part of the general decline in the birth rate during the past fifty years. Marriage statistics suffer greatly from inaccuracy of data on the age of marriage. As most people do not consider it a matter of much importance to report the true ages of the contracting par- ties, the age of the woman especially is frequently stated to be a few years younger than it really is.1 Conclusions in regard to the effect of the marriage rate and age of marriage on the birth rate, so far as the United States is concerned, must be regarded as tentative. According to the U. S. Census for 1910, there has been for both sexes a gradual advance since 1890, in the percentage of married persons and in the percentage of married, widowed, and divorced persons combined. "In the age groups 15 to 19 years, 1 For a discussion of what might be called the coefficient of mendacity for differ- ent ages of Australian brides see Knibbs, The Mathematical Theory of Population, Appendix A, of the Census of Australia for 1911, Vol. i. 146 THE TREND OF THE RACE 22 to 24 years, and 25 to 34 years, the percentage married, wid- owed or divorced was greater in 1910 than in 1900 and in the case of the first two groups it was also greater in 1900 than in 1890." A larger proportion of the population are marrying in the earlier ages than was the case ten or twenty years ago. The falling off in the natural rate of increase of population in this country would not seem to be due therefore to the postponement of marriage. In England and Wales the marriage rate has remained fairly constant for nearly a century, although exhibiting, as Ogle has shown, a considerable fluctuation due to war and especially to changes in economic conditions, the curve rising and falling concomitantly with the rising and falling of the curve representing the value of exports. The decline in the birth rate has progressed quite steadily without much apparent relation to fluctuations in the rate of marriage. The relatively small changes in the mar- riage rate in England and Wales are shown in the following table : Marriage Rates in England and Wales Year 1820 Rate per 10,000 81 c Year 1880 . Rate per i 18^0.. 78 IQOO. . 80 l8AO. . 78 77 86 IOIO. . 1860 IQI3. . 78 1870. . 81 IQId. . 70. In Germany the marriage rate has remained fairly constant, rising in some provinces and falling in others. In the cities of Prussia the marriage rates were 1880: 84.5; 1890, 93.5; 1900, 96.5; while for these three dates in the country they were 73, 75.5, and 78.5. Since the marriage rate has risen during the period in which the birth rate has fallen, we cannot attribute much of the fall in the birth rate to variations in the frequency of marriage. THE CAUSES OF THE DECLINING BIRTH RATE 147 Marriage Rates per 10,000 of the Population in Germany Germany Prussia Bavaria Saxony Berlin i84i-<;o. . 81 86 66 86 03 1851-60 78 84 64 8q 07 1861—70.. . . 8<; 8<; 87 80 II? 1871-80.. . . 86 87 84 04. IIQ 1881-90.. . . 78 80 60 01 IO7 1891-00 82 83 77 01 IOI 1900.. 8< 8q q ICKX.. 80 < 81 IQIO.. . 77 77- <> IQI2.. 78. q 80 The marriage rate of France shows a considerable degree of constancy over a long period. It reached its lowest figure, 60.5, in 1870, the year of the Franco-Prussian War, and its highest rate, 97.5, in 1872, the year after the war. During the first twelve years of the 20th century the marriage rate in France showed a very slight increase. The marriage rate in France since the beginning of the last century is shown in the following table: Marriage Rate in France 1801-10 76 1810-20 79 1820-30 88 1830-40 80 1840-50 80 1850-60 79 1860-70 78 1870-80 80 1880-90 74 1890-00 75 1900 77. 1901 78 1902 75-5 1903 ••• 75-5 1904 ... 76 1905. ...... ... 77 1906 ... 78 1907 ... 80 1908 ... 80 1909 •... 78 1910 ... 78 1911 ••• 77-5 1912 ... 79 1913 ... 75 148 THE TREND OF THE RACE It is clear that the rate of marriage in France can have had little to do with the birth rate which has quite steadily declined since the beginning of the igth century, even during the various periods in which the marriage rate has increased, especially be- tween 1890 and 1907. Other countries in Europe show a fair constancy of marriage rates over decennial periods, some having a slight decrease and others exhibiting a slight increase as we approach the present time. In most countries the highest marriage rate occurred in the decade 1870-80, but the lowest appeared at varying periods down to the present. The reduction in the infant death rate which has occurred in Europe during the last quarter century would tend to depress the marriage rates. On the other hand, the declining birth rate would have an opposite effect. We may avoid these sources of error somewhat (though encountering others) if we estimate the proportion of married women to the total number of women of marriageable age. The following table shows the number of married women of 15 to 45 years per thousand of all women 15 to 4 5 years: Proportions of Married Women in Europe 1870-71 1880-81 1890-91 IQOO-OI England and Wales CIQ ci4 4.04. 4.02 Ireland. . 4.22 •2QC •264. •2?O Sweden. 4.C.7 AAA 4.C.4 AAA Germany CIQ CIC <28 Prussia. 4.08 C.IQ C.IO were for County Boroughs 195, for London 199, Urban Districts 192 and Rural Districts 204." In her report on the decline hi the birth rate in the north of England Miss Elderton states that in order of decrease in the birth rate come "(i) textile and woolen towns, (2) engineering and metal working towns, (3) mining districts, and lastly (4) purely rural districts." In France in 1913 the crude birth rate in cities of 10,000 or over averaged 18.67. The birth rate for the rest of the population was 19.45 and for France as a whole 18.8. The rate for the rural districts was exceeded only by that of the towns between 5,000 l62 THE TREND OF THE RACE and 10,000 inhabitants. The conditions just before the war (1913) are shown in the following table: Births, Deaths and Marriages in France for 1913 Births Deaths Born Dead Marriages Divorces Paris 17 . 12 is. 67 i .4.0 II . 21 i 07 Cities 100-500,000 18.98 10.60 i . 21; 8 47 61 " 30-100,000. . l8 23 10. 07 i .00 8 i< c8 " 20— 30,000. . 18.33 20. 10 0.06 7 46 " 10— 20,000 \S*J 19.06 10. 74. " s— 10,000. . 2O 4.6 18 76 Average of cities 18.67 18.68 Average of rest of France 19-45 It will be observed that Paris has a crude birth rate lower than any other class of cities, and that in general (the cities of 100,000- 500,000 proving an exception) the birth rate increases as the size of the city diminishes. It is in Germany, which furnishes a greater wealth of data on the subject than any other country, that we find the clearest evidence of the relative unfertility of city stocks. The subject has been treated by a considerable number of writers (Mombert, Borntrager, Kriege, Roesle, Kaup, Stenger, Bailed) whose ver- dicts are in general agreement. The following table gives a very general survey of the relations: Births Per 1,000 Married Women of Child- Bearing Age in Germany Years Entire State In Cities In the Country 1880-81 322 30 c; 32Q i88q-86. . 32Q 1800— o i . , 328 207 347 1 80 1; -06. . 317 270 343 IOOO-OI.. 30? 266 337 THE CAUSES OF THE DECLINING BIRTH RATE 163 Mombert from whom the above table is taken states that legitimate fertility in the cities as compared with the land is lower, has declined more rapidly and began to decline earlier. In the large cities (Grosstadte) the fall hi the birth rate has been especially rapid. All of the large cities showed a lower corrected birth rate in 1901 than the country. The average children per 1,000 married women (15-45 yrs) in cities of 40,000 in 1901 was 238 as compared with the rural rate of 337, but this rate was higher than that of most of the larger cities of that year (Berlin, 172, Breslau, 234, Frankfurt, 208, Munich, 225, Dresden, 211, Essen, 328, Hamburg, 194, Leipzig, 209). Data on urban and rural birth rates are often greatly affected by many factors which tend to obscure the influence of cities per se. Much depends upon the kind of industry in which the city populations are engaged. Manufacturing cities have, as a rule, a higher birth rate than cities which are chiefly engaged in commerce, or which are mainly residential. Often the racial composition of cities differs considerably from that of the sur- rounding country, as is very strikingly illustrated in the United States. To a less extent this is true in Europe where the percen- tage of persons born outside the country is greater in cities, and especially in large cities, than in rural districts. Cities tend to be centers of racial mixtures, whatever this may imply as regards the birth rate and the quality of the offspring of mixed marriages. It is probable that the ratio of males to females would be increased by this circumstance, but what other biological effects would follow is doubtful. Since the inhabitants of cities may differ from those of the surrounding country in race, religion, education and prosperity, peculiar combinations of circumstances may render even the corrected birth rate of cities higher than that of the country. There is abundant evidence, however, that the usual effect of an urban environment is to check the propagation of the race. There is little doubt that one factor in the decline of the birth rate is the reduction hi infant mortality which has accompanied the fall of the death rate in recent decades. The correlation 164 THE TREND OF THE RACE between a high birth rate and a high infantile death rate is not simply a matter of cause and effect as so many of the Neo-Mal- thusians assume. While large families may not be so adequately supported on a small income as small ones, the association of high birth rates and high infant death rates is to a large extent due to the fact that both have a common cause in the lack of knowledge or prudence in the parents. In families in which the number of births is voluntarily limited, the death of a child is apt to be followed by the birth of another to replace the loss, as is very commonly the case in France. But even where there is no at- tempt to regulate the propagation of the race there are certain physiological factors which tend to bring about a correlation between high infant mortality and a high birth rate. It is a well-known fact that, while a child is nursing, the mother is much less apt to conceive. Even primitive peoples often take advan- tage of this fact and nurse their offspring for a long time in order to avoid having others. The death of an infant and the conse- quent interruption of lactation is commonly followed by another conception. The more rapidly infants die the more rapidly, therefore, new conceptions are apt to occur. The birth rate has fallen in several cities in Germany much faster than the infant mortality. In Munich, for instance, the birth rate fell from 1876-80 to 1906-09 over three times as much as the infant mortality, and in 349 German cities of over 15,000 inhabitants the birth rate fell from 1901 to 1909 over three times as much as the infant death rate. Mombert has pointed out that in many cities and districts (Frankfurt, Stettin, Cologne, etc.) in Germany the infant death rate has risen while the birth rate has decreased, and in a few cities the birth rate has increased while the infant death rate has decreased. France shows an unfortunate condition in having a low birth rate and a high infant death rate. The classes in which the birth rate has fallen most are those in which the habit of nursing offspring has most fallen into disuse. The interruption of lactation would naturally tend to increase fecundity, but it has not done this, largely, no doubt, because it THE CAUSES OF THE DECLINING BIRTH RATE 165 has not been allowed to do so. We cannot, therefore, for several reasons attribute to reduced infant mortality a large part of the decline of the birth rate, although this has doubtless been one factor. The influence of venereal diseases upon the decline of the birth rate, although undoubtedly considerable, is difficult to estimate. No reliable data exists as to the proportion of the population affected by these diseases, although their prevalence is a matter of common knowledge.1 That the two most common venereal maladies are potent causes of sterility has long been recognized. Gonorrhoea, which, according to several medical authorities, has at one time or another affected more than 50 per cent of the adult male population, is responsible for a large amount of sterility, the extent of which the medical profession has only recently come to appreciate. Through obstructing the vas deferens or epididymis, as well as in other ways, gonorrhoea is a not infrequent cause of sterility in the male sex. Furbringer attributes one-third of all sterile marriages to this cause. Kohern found in 96 sterile marriages 30 per cent due to the absence of sperms in the seminal fluid of the husband. The greatest damage is done, however, by the transfer of the infection to wives, which often takes place even after the disease has apparently ceased in the husband. Gonococcus infection, according to the moderate estimate of Prinzing, causes 13 per cent of sterile marriages. Noggerath places the percentage of sterility in woman due to this cause as high as 50, and Neisser believes that 45 per cent of sterile marriages are due to gonorrhoea of one or the other sex. This dis- ease is a frequent cause of failure to produce more children after the birth of the first child owing to the rapid extension of the in- fection after childbirth. The extent to which complete or partial sterility is due directly or indirectly to this cause must be very considerable, although it is not capable of precise measurement. 1 The best index of the prevalence of venereal diseases in the U. S. is afforded by the examination of recruits hi the late war. According to the Report of the Surgeon General for 1919, 5.6 per cent were found to be infected at the time of the draft. This figure includes negroes among whom venereal infections were about seven times as frequent as among th£ whites. 166 THE TREND OF THE RACE That syphilis is another potent factor in reducing the birth rate has long been recognized. Syphilis is a common cause of abortion and of still births, but the percentage due to this disease appears not to be accurately ascertained. Dr. Willey thinks that about 32.8 per cent of total still births are due to syphilis. Dr. Thos. Barlow thinks that the majority are the result of this cause. According to Dr. Prince Morrow (Social Diseases and Marriage} "60 per cent of children born of syphilitic mothers die in utero or soon after birth. Records of the Leurrenne Hospital which refer almost exclusively to syphilis in prostitutes show that of 165 pregnancies with maternal syphilis, 145 which terminated fatally, while in only 22 did the infants survive, that is, only i child in 7 pregnancies." Syphilitic mothers often produce several abortions, after which they may bear living offspring, who, however, being affected with hereditary syphilis are apt to die young. The attempt of the National Birth Rate Commission to elicit some information from various experts who were ex- amined as to the prevalence of abortion due to syphilis, yielded little but guarded expressions of opinion. Reliable data on abortions are practically impossible to procure. While abortion has become more frequent in recent years, the increase is doubt- less to be attributed largely to the employment of artificial means. Venereal diseases are, as a rule, notoriously more prevalent in cities than in rural districts,1 and hence may constitute an important factor in the greater relative reduction of the urban birth rate. One of the most thorough studies on this subject was made by Guttstadt who sent a questionnaire to the physi- cians in Prussia, concerning the number of venereal cases treated in April, 1900. Of every 10,000 adult inhabitants of Prussia there were treated: 1 The relatively high rural rate for gonorrhoea shown by American recruits for the recent war is largely due to the great prevalence of this disease in the negro population which is still mainly rural. THE CAUSES OF THE DECLINING BIRTH RATE 167 Venereal Diseases in Prussian Cities Males Females In Berlin IA.I Q AC 7 In 17 other cities of over 100,000 OO O MO • / 27 O In 42 cities of 30,000 to 100,000 s8 4 */ *y 17 6 In 47 cities with less than 30,000 A.Z I 16 o In other cities and rural districts 7 O 2 7 Naturally there are sources of error in these data owing to the tendency of individuals to go to larger cities for treatment. That they indicate a greater liability to infection in the larger cities, however, is confirmed by data on the infections of recruits to the army from various parts of Prussia. Of 10,000 recruits in 1903- 05 there were venereal cases as follows: Venereal Cases in Urban and Rural Recruits in Prussia Berlin 413 27 other cities over 100,000 158 26 " " 50-100,000 102 23, " " 25-50,000 80 Small cities and rural districts 44 Dr. Blaschko contributes further to the bad reputation of Berlin in his estimate that of 1,000 men between 20 and 30 years nearly 200 become infected with gonorrhoea and 24 with syphilis per year, and that of men who marry after 30, each has had gonorrhoea twice on the average, and every one in 4 or 5 has syphilis. This is apt to be an over-estimate. The Berlin Gewerb- skrankenverein reports the yearly number of venereal infections as having increased from 53.6 per thousand male members in 1892-95, to 87.1 per thousand male members in 1906-7. Of course a considerable number of cases may not have been reported to the organization, so that the estimates are minimal. Dr. W. Claasen, on the basis of medical reports on syphilis in medical benefit organizations, estimates that from 22.5 per cent to 34 per cent of all Berlin workers contract syphilis at some time 168 THE TREND OF THE RACE during their lives. Still higher estimates are made by Lenz, although they are based on very unreliable methods. In Den- mark (1886-95) venereal infection in Copenhagen, other cities and in the country bore the ratio of 201, 30, and 4 respectively (Prinzing.) It is Impossible on the basis of any statistics that have been compiled to ascertain whether venereal diseases have been in- creasing or decreasing. Medical opinion on the subject is very divergent. It is only recently possible, owing to the discovery of the Wassermann and other tests for syphilis, to gain any idea as to the extent to which this scourge is disseminated among the population, and no data have yet been compiled that will give an accurate idea of its prevalence. We are much less able to estimate its prevalence in times past. Since venereal diseases are much more common in cities, and since the city population has been increasing at a relatively rapid rate, it would seem likely that venereal diseases in cities have been on the increase. And if they have increased in the cities it would be only natural that with our greatly increased means of travel they would be disseminated into the small towns and rural districts, leading to an increase also in these communities. We are perhaps justified in attributing the tendency of the birth rate to fall more rapidly in the cities hi part to the greater preva- lence of venereal disease in urban communities. But how far these diseases have produced a fall of the general birth rate is uncertain. Of all the factors influencing the birth rate, it is probable that the most potent is the voluntary restriction of births. In many families children do not come because they are not wanted, and in many others the number of children is limited to two or three. The custom of standardizing the family, so common in France, is rapidly spreading to other lands, especially among the members of the higher social strata. Large families are no longer in style, and parents who have many children are often regarded as guilty of a violation of good form, if they do not incur a more serious judgment. THE CAUSES OF THE DECLINING BIRTH RATE 169 The means resorted to in order to avoid the responsibility of parenthood vary in different households. The effective method of continence in marriage naturally does not commend itself to the rank and file of the human species. However much moralists may condemn the employment of other means of preventing the arrival of the unwanted child, most of those who regulate their families will doubtless continue to follow prevalent customs. The two methods of interfering with the natural course of repro- duction are abortion and prevention of conception. The former method, consisting as it does in the destruction of a life already developing toward a human personality, is condemned in most countries as essentially a form of murder. Procuring abortion, either by the mother's own act or through the agency of another person is commonly adjudged a criminal offense, and any physi- cian or surgeon who is an accomplice in the crime is liable to more or less severe penalties, unless the operation is one which the safety or health of the mother demands. Notwithstanding all the legislation against the traffic in child murder, there are very few convictions on this score. The business flourishes in most civilized countries under the patronage of the rich and influential as well as the poor wage earners, who wish to avoid the burden of large families, and the unfortunate girls who would avoid the disgrace of unmarried motherhood. It is the general consensus of opinion among writers on the subject that abortion is on the increase, that it is more prevalent in the more civilized com- munities, and more common in cities than in the country. What primitive peoples effect through infanticide, the modern woman accomplishes through recourse to the drug store or the gyneco- logical expert. The thinly veiled advertisements of professional abortionists are to be found in the papers of nearly every city. There is reason to believe that in the United States and elsewhere, conditions are becoming general such as Dr. Iseman has de- scribed for New York. " So general is the demand and so common the practice, that in the competition for the traffic the ordinary criminal operator has been practically driven out of the business by the highly skilled and respectable members of the medical 170 THE TREND OF THE RACE profession. Up to a few years ago there still remained some rivalry on the part of the lodge doctor, the advertising specialist, the foreign midwife, the massage dens, and the manicurist, but even these had to go before the more dignified, less dangerous, and lawful abortions performed at the dispensaries, clinics, and in- firmaries which seemingly for this purpose have multiplied in every section of the city. "With the advent of this benevolent abortion not alone has the regular medical procurer been shorn of the patronage, but with him has also gone that cautious old tinkerer, the family physician and abortionist, both being superseded by those brilliant specialists of the art, the gynaecologists, whose philan- thropic and unfailing tomahawks are whetted for every embryo daring to stray within the confines of a woman's clinic." It is a well-known fact that at present many women whenever they perceive the first signs of pregnancy rush to their physician for relief. The number of such early abortions is naturally not subject to statistical investigation. But it is a common opinion among medical men that they are exceedingly common, and are becoming increasingly prevalent. The special committee on criminal abortion appointed by the Michigan State Board of Health stated in their report, "To so great an extent is this now practiced by American Protestant women that by the calculation of one of the committee, based upon correspondence with nearly one hundred physicians, there comes to the knowledge of the profession seventeen abortions to every one hundred pregnancies; to these the committee believe may be added as many more that never come to the physician's knowledge, making 34 per cent or one- third of all cases ending in miscarriage; that in the United States the number is not less than 100,000, and the number of women who die from its immediate effects not less than 6,000 per annum." (Rep. State Bd. Health Mich., 1881, 104-6.) This estimate was made over 36 years ago. More recently a prominent student of the subject, Dr. W. J. Robinson, estimates that probably from one to three million abortions are practiced an- nually in the United States. THE CAUSES OF THE DECLINING BIRTH RATE 171 A very illuminating study of the problem has been made by Miss Elderton in her Report on the English Birth Rate. As the conditions portrayed are quite typical for industrial communities in this country as well as England, and probably other countries also, it will be of interest to quote rather extensively from this report. Speaking of the city of York, Miss Elderton says, "Pre- ventive measures appear to be largely used by nearly all sections of the population in York, although some of our correspondents are not acquainted with the sale of preventatives in public places. One correspondent finds the source of the falling birth rate not in economic depression, but in the rapid growth of prosperity among the working classes in York, and in particular in the exceptional opportunities for the remunerative employment of unmarried women. These unmarried women — often several in one home, earning good wages — connote that the standard of home comforts is a high one. When these women marry, they will not put up with large families and the resulting poverty, incessant toil and drudgery; if they have any knowledge at all of the means of prevention, they check births. This correspondent does not think there is a large recourse to methods of abortion, but that there is greater acquaintance with methods for preventing con- ception. Indirectly, therefore, the employment of women, it is suggested, has raised the standard of living and lowered the birth rate. A second correspondent finds that preventives are used more freely in the upper classes of York society, the county and military sets, and to a somewhat lesser extent in the middle and lower middle classes. In the artisan classes means of preven- tion are not so often adopted, but if pregnancy does occur aborti- facients are resorted to. The poorest classes of all, those who cannot provide for themselves, but seek public dispensaries and maternity charities for attendance, do not appear to limit their families, for very many have large families running up to thirteen or more. It is clear, however, that if certain members of this class used preventives, they would not come under observation to the same extent as the normally fertile. . . . The upper classes do not as a rule come under the chemist's observation, they order 172 THE TREND OF THE RACE from wholesale dealers and expense is no consideration; they use mechanical more frequently than drug preventives. In the case of abortion, there is no connivance with the medical profession, but women apply for a medicine on the ground of some slight irregularity and then take such large doses as to produce the desired effect. The middle class also as a rule adopts Neo-Mal- thusian practices; appliances are purchased in chemists' shops, but they are also obtained from various barbers and tobacconists. Among the very poor, although the desire to limit the family is filtering down to them, more natural lives are led; they cannot in fact afford drugs, etc., but they are less 'sophisticated' and act more instinctively. There is no doubt that the habit of artificial limitation is growing rapidly in both the upper and middle classes, but our correspondent's experience brought him more closely in touch with skilled artisans, clerks, small shopkeepers, with from £2 a week income upwards. Those with more than £250 a year tend to a proportionally larger use of mechanical preventives. Voluntary self-restraint, or cohabitation at certain times only has hardly anything to do with the decline in the birth rate in this class. The current tone in the matter may be illustrated by two stories, the one told by a married woman with wide experience, namely, that if you hear a knot of young married women of this class talking together, the chances are that the topic will be the means of prevention, and the second the words of a male acquaint- ance to our correspondent himself 'on the arrival of one of my youngsters': 'Well, you are a fool, — and you in a chemist's shop!'" That family limitation was not more prevalent earlier may be in part ascribed to the fact that such a possibility never occurred to the majority of parents. The perpetuation of the race simply went on in a natural way as it does among the lower animals, and however undesirable may have been the results of unrestricted multiplication, relatively little effort was made to check the number of births. The surplus humanity was taken care of by a high death rate, assisted occasionally by war, pestilence, famine, and here and there by infanticide. THE CAUSES OF THE DECLINING BIRTH RATE 173 Birth restriction probably would have been much more com- mon in past times had our ancestors the knowledge on the subject that is in the possession of most well-informed persons at the pres- ent time. But aside from this circumstance, there is, for several reasons, a greater temptation to limit the family than there was in times past. Our changing modes of life make children less desir- able. In most places they are no longer an economic asset. In fact they are becoming an increasing financial burden. Stand- ards of living are being raised. There is an increased demand on the part of women for more leisure and a respite from the burdens which a large family imposes. The desire for luxury and social pleasures leads many a married women to choose a childless life, or to be content with but one or two children. And there is the desire to climb higher on the social ladder (the capillarite sociale of Dumont) which is not so easily accomplished with children hanging about the skirts. A common reason given for not having more children is the inadequacy of the family income. Those responding to the questionnaire sent out by Mr. Webb stated that the causes that led to family limitation were mainly economic. A similar ques- tionnaire distributed by Major Greenwood elicited the reasons for family restriction as follows: economic, 130; health, 90; doubtful, 69. Undoubtedly there are many married couples who would have more children if they had more means to support them. But, as a rule, wealth is no sooner acquired than standards of living are raised and a desire for luxuries increased. The acquisi- tion of wealth, far from creating an increased sense of racial obli- gation, engenders in most people the conviction that they are legitimately entitled to shift to other shoulders all functions that require a sacrifice of egoistic pleasures. There is doubtless a primary tendency among human beings, as there is among the lower animals, to respond to increased means of support by an enhanced birth rate. In periods of prosperity there are more marriages and hence a greater tendency to produce children. But the contention of Cauderlier that prosperity in general increases the birth rate is contradicted by a number of 174 THE TREND OF THE RACE well-known facts. A sudden accession of wealth may have one effect, but its longer possession, with all the customs and tradi- tions associated with its enjoyment, may have a quite different result. If wealth affords the means of supporting more children it calls into operation a number of secondary factors which tempt its possessors to enjoy life unencumbered by a numerous progeny. It is among the well-to-do who are best able to support and edu- cate their children that the gospel of birth control has secured its largest following. Many comfort themselves with reflections about "fewer and better children," and that "Quality is better than quantity," without considering that without a certain minimum number of children there would soon be neither quan- tity nor quality. It is doubtful if one person in ten who employs these glib justifications of family restriction has ever seriously reflected on the racial consequences which this restriction may entail. The possession of means of interfering with the normal course of perpetuating life confers a grave responsibility for its wise employment. And it is not surprising that the power should be generally abused. Limiting the family is a perfectly justifiable procedure for a large part of humanity, but it is unfortunate that it is practiced most among those whose excuse for so doing is least. Many people who practice family limitation are actuated by the desire to provide better for a few children instead of bringing into the world a large family which cannot be adequately sup- ported. It would, however, be a serious racial misfortune if the great mass of reasonably thrifty and intelligent people should, for such a reason, reduce the size of their families below what is necessary to perpetuate their stock. To put family interest above racial welfare is as bad in its effect as to sacrifice the race to the selfish enjoyment of the individual. With most people considera- tions of the interests of the race are not kept habitually in mind, if they are ever present at all. What is one child more or less in a populous country as compared with the sacrifices needed to feed an extra mouth? This is the concrete question which occurs almost inevitably to every married couple in moderate circum- THE CAUSES OF THE DECLINING BIRTH RATE 175 stances who give thought to the larger aspects of perpetuating their kind. With people of good inheritance it is a question of family prosperity versus the general weal. And it is so easy to find a reasonable justification for pursuing the former to the neg- lect of the latter. There are people in plenty willing to die for their country, but when it conies to raising children for it, — that is a different matter. It is to be feared that the so-called Neo-Malthusian doctrines which are becoming so widely diffused nowadays are having more effect in extinguishing good inheritance than in checking the large families which are so frequently associated with a squalid exist- ence and a high death rate. As its name implies the Neo-Mal- thusian movement is an outgrowth of the general doctrine enun- ciated by Malthus in his celebrated Essay on Population. In the words of one of its chief exponents, Dr. C. V. Drysdale, "Neo- Malthusianism is an ethical doctrine based on the principle of Malthus that poverty, disease and premature death can only be eliminated by control of reproduction, and on a recognition of the evils inseparable from prolonged abstention from marriage. It therefore advocates early marriage, combined with a selective limitation of offspring to those children to whom the parents can give a satisfactory heredity and environment so that they may become -desirable members of the community. It further main- tains that a universal knowledge of contraceptive devices among adult men and women would in all probability automatically lead to such a selection through an enlightened self-interest, and thus to the elimination of destitution and all the more serious social evils, and to the elevation of the race." This is quoted from the second edition of the author's book, The Small Family System, which contains perhaps the best general statement of the Neo-Malthusian doctrine, with an able plea in its behalf. Like many other Neo-Malthusians, Dr. Drysdale sees in family limitation what is perhaps as near to being a panacea for all social ills as any one measure that could possibly be applied. To the adoption of Neo-Malthusian practices is attributed a large part of the decrease in mortality which during the last half 1 76 THE TREND OF THE RACE century has accompanied the fall of the birth rate. A high birth rate commonly goes along with a high infant mortality; hence, it is argued, the latter would diminish if the birth rate were reduced. By doing away with over-population Neo-Malthusianism would tend to exterminate disease and poverty, and by permitting early marriages to take place without incurring the responsibility of parenthood it would materially decrease prostitution and vene- real disease. In place of a population living in squalor and igno- rance, competing keenly for the bare means of subsistence, and tending through rapid increase to encroach upon neighboring nations, we should have a people with a relatively low death rate, living in comparative affluence, freed largely from the temp- tations to vice and crime, and enjoying the blessings of peace and contentment. All this through the proper employment of con- traceptives! This vision of the beneficent results of checking over-population has aroused in many all the enthusiasm that characterizes the .devotees of a new religion. We have societies for spreading the gospel in various countries, as, for instance, the Malthusian League of England, the ligue Neo-Malthusienne of Paris, similar leagues in Holland, Germany, Austria, Italy, Belgium, Sweden, Spain, and several birth control leagues in the larger cities of the United States. A number of periodicals are devoted, in whole or in part, to the same propaganda, such as the Birth Control Review, Birth Control News, Dr. Robinson's Critic and Guide, The Malthusian (C. V. Drysdale ed.), La Generation Consciente (Paris), Salud y Fuerza (Spain), L'Educazione sessuale (Italy), Die neue Generation (Germany). Much of this teaching finds its way into socialist pamphlets and periodicals which have no small influence upon the birth rate of the better informed workers. Many of the latter take an antagonistic attitude to having large families, not merely because many children make greater de- mands upon the family income, but believing that, as the popula- tion increases, wages, and hence the welfare of the working classes in general, tends to decrease, and believing also, and to a certain extent rightly, that the gospel of fecundity has been preached in the interest of capital in order that there may always be a supply of cheap labor, they have come to regard the produc- tion of large families as almost an act of class disloyalty. Know- ing little of heredity, taught to look upon the differences between human beings as chiefly the result of environment and oppor- tunity, and being impressed with the notion that the ills of humanity have their root in purely social and economic malad- justments, they are apt to set little store by the great variations in hereditary qualities which human beings everywhere present, and to overlook the really vital importance of conserving the best inheritance of the race. It does not seem to them, there- fore, a matter of much importance whether they produce their quota of children or not. In fact, it might seem to be a patriotic duty to refrain from having children, so that the next generation would be able to secure a greater per capita reward for its labor. If a large part of the thinking elements of the working classes hold such views and are thereby led to reduce their families below the necessary minimum for reproducing their kind, we cannot upbraid them for neglecting an important duty, but can only endeavor to dissuade them from carrying family restriction to the point of race suicide. No Neo-Malthusian who has the least knowledge of the prin- ciples of heredity would advocate the restriction of families of desirable parentage beyond the minimum necessary for race perpetuation. Many Neo-Malthusians, however, place so little emphasis on this aspect of the matter that the actual influence of their teaching would be to produce just this result. Dr. Drys- dale's book, for instance, is so devoted to condemning the evils of large families and extolling the benefits arising from the small family system that he has practically no word on the evils that would result from an undue restriction in families of desirable inheritance. An indiscriminate advocacy of small families with no indication of how small the families should be, is more apt to cause good inheritance to disappear than it is to check the propa- gation of bad stock. In this matter, if anywhere in ethics, ths 178 THE TREND OF THE RACE Aristotelian doctrine of the golden mean finds its ample justifi- cation. We agree that in numerous instances family limitation would confer an inestimable boon. As Dr. Drysdale well says, "There are millions of poor physically and mentally unfit creatures who, if voluntary restriction were known to them, or they were not told it was unhealthy or immoral, would only be too glad to escape burdening themselves and the community with a numerous and weakly progeny. What is the use of deploring the increase of the unfit when the poor mothers among the working classes are only too anxious to avoid the misery of bearing child upon child in wretched surroundings on miserably insufficient wages, and of seeing half their children perish from semi-starvation before their eyes?" It is argued that the greatest benefits of birth control would result from diffusing the proper knowledge among the classes that form the rather broad belt between mental deficiency and com- mon mediocrity. We cannot reasonably expect that, in this belt, a great deal of respect would be paid to the counsel of sexual abstinence as a means of limiting the family. Since knowledge of the means of preventing conception is so prevalent among the upper ranks of society, why become so righteously indignant about extending the information to the people among whom it would do the most good? While much has been said against Neo-Malthusianism on hygienic, ethical and patriotic grounds, there can be no doubt that opinion in medical circles and elsewhere is coming to be more favorable to the movement. It is becoming more and more evident that legislation against the dissemination of knowledge on the prevention of conception is futile, if not mischievous. It now has little effect except that of keeping knowledge of the subject away from the more ignorant and improvident, and of indirectly leading to an increase of abortion among all classes. The attempt to make ignorance the bulwark of morality has al- ways broken down, and it might be better to make knowledge of the least injurious contraceptive methods the general property of THE CAUSES OF THE DECLINING BIRTH RATE 179 all married couples rather than to keep it under the ban of legal prohibition. There is a considerable amount of sincere moral feeling, and a larger amount of purely hypocritical protest against such a procedure.1 The question cannot be decided by ecclesias- tical authority, or by any sort of ,a priori deduction, but only on the ground of what is most conducive to the welfare of the race. What we need is a judicious combination of the preachments of Dr. Drysdale and Mr. Roosevelt, — family limitation where such is needed, and greater fecundity among those whose inheritance is of superior quality. 1 Mr. H. Gachte has somewhat ironically pointed out that among the members of the National Committee on the Increase of the Population in France, there were only 578 children to 445 members, or an average of one and a third children per family! On the pros and cons of birth control the reader may be referred, in addition to the books and periodicals mentioned above, to Beale's Racial Decay, a rather rambling, disorganized work, strongly condemnatory of birth control. This work formed the occasion of Mr. Roosevelt's famous article on Race Suicide (Outlook, Vol. 97, p. 763) which should be read by everyone interested in the subject. Of purely historical interest is Knowlton's, Fruits of Philosophy (a rather sorry pro- duction by the way) whose republication in England in 1878 brought about the celebrated trial of Chas. Bradlaugh and Mrs. Annie Besant. Mention may also be made of Mrs. Besant's pamphlet, The Law of Population, which ran through many editions amounting in all to several hundred thousand copies. A strong attack on birth restriction is contained in the Rev. R. Ussher's, Neo-Mallhusianism (Methuen and Co., London, 1897). On the Neo-Malthusian side attention may be called to Uncontrolled Breeding, by A. More; Small or Large Families, by C. V. Drysdale, H. Ellis, W. J. Robinson and A. Grotjahn; W. J. Robinson's books, Eugenics, Marriage and Birth Control, Fewer and Better Babies, The Limitation of Of spring; A. Grotjahn's, Geburtenriickgang und Geburtenregelung (Marcus, Berlin, 1914). H. Ellis has discussed the subject in his Task of Social Hygiene, Essays in War Time, and in the Eugenics Review for 1917. An interesting series of articles by M. A. Hopkins runs through Harper's Weekly for 1915. A useful bibliography of several hundred references has been compiled by Th. Schroeder (H. W. Wilson Co., N. Y., , 35 cents). i8o THE TREND OF THE RACE REFERENCES Blaschko, A. Geburtenriickgang und Geschlechtskrankheiten. Earth, Leipzig, 1914. Deghilage, P. La Depopulation des Campagnes. Les Causes, les Effets, les Remfedes, F. Nathan. Paris, 1907. Dudfield, R. Some Unconsidered Factors Affecting the Birth-Rate. Jour. Roy. Stat. Soc. 71, 1-55, 1908. Dumont,A. LeProblSmede la Depopulation. Paris, 1897; Natality et Democratic, Paris, 1898; Depopulation et Civilization, Paris, 1800. Fahlbeck, B. E. Der Neo-Malthusianismus in seinen Beziehungen zur Rassen- biologie und Rassenhygiene. Arch. f. Rassen-und Ges. Biol. 9, 30-48, 1912. F6lice, R. de. Les Naissances en France: la Situation: ses consequences: ses Causes: Existe-t-il des Remedies? Hachette and Co., Paris, 1910, pp. 370. Ferdy, H. Sittliche Selbstbeschrankung, Hildesheim, 1004, pp. 204. Forberger, J. Geburtenriickgang und Konfession. Berlin, 1914, pp. 72. Geissler, A. Ueber den Einfluss der Sauglingssterblichkeit auf die eheliche Frucht- barkeit. Zeit. Sachs. Stat. Bur. 31, 1885, p. 23. Goldstein, J. Die vermeinth'chen und die wirklichen Ursachen des Bevolkerungs- stillstands in Frankreich. Munich, 1898. See also Zukunft, 7, 55; Bevolke- rungsprobleme und Berufsgliederung in Frankreich. Berlin, 1900. Grotjahn, A. Geburten-Riickgang und Geburten-Regelung. BerUn, 1914. Iseman, M. S. Race Suicide. Cosmopolitan Press, N. Y., 1912. Keller, A. G. Birth Control. Yale Rev. 7, 129-139, 1917. March, L. Commission de la Depopulation. Sous-Commission de la Natalite. Rapport sur les Causes Professionelles de Depopulation. Paris, 1905. Ogle, W. On Marriage-Rates and Marriage Ages, with Special Reference to the Growth of Population. Jour. Roy. Stat. Soc. 53, 253-280, 1890. Piff, T. Ueber die Ursachen des Geburtenrtickganges in Deutschland. Berlin klin, Wochenschr. 1913, i, 261-264. Ploetz, A. Neomalthusianismus und Rassenhygiene. Arch. Rass. Ces. Biol. 10, 166-172, 1913. Rutgers, J. Rassenverbesserung, Malthusianismus und Neomalthusianismus. Dresden and Leipzig, 1908, p. 303. Taylor, J. W. The Diminishing Birth Rate. London, 1904. Webb, S. The Decline in the Birth Rate. Fabian Tract, No. 131. London, 1007. Physical Degeneracy or Race Suicide? Pop. Sci. Mon. 69, 512-529, 1906. Wolf, J. Die letzten Ursachen des Geburtenriickgangs unserer Tage. Arch. Soz. Wiss. 37, 919-929, 1913. Der Geburtenruckgang und die Rationalisierung des Sexuallebens in unserer Zeit. G. Fischer, Jena,i9i2. CHAPTER VIII NATURAL SELECTION IN MAN "The conception of the destruction of the less fit as a beneficent factor of human growth must become part of our mental atmosphere, we must look upon it as a chief cause of the mental and physical growth of mankind in the past, not as a blind and hostile natural force carelessly crushing the single life, but as the source of all that we value in the intellect and physique of the highest type of mankind to-day." — Karl Pearson, The Groundwork of Eugenics. Eugenics Laboratory Lecture Series, II. ACCORDING to the Darwinian theory the evolution of life is mainly the result of the operation of natural selection or the preservation of favored races in the struggle for life. Opinions differ greatly concerning the extent to which natural selection acts in the human species. Mr. Darwin considered the factors of human evolution at some length in his Descent of Man and while he has recognized the potency of sexual selection and the trans- mission of the effects of use and disuse of parts, he lays great stress upon natural selection, both in the preservation of the most favored individuals and in the selection of the most efficient social groups in intertribal and inter-racial conflict. "The early progenitors of man," he says, "must have tended, like all other animals, to have increased beyond their means of sustenance; they must, therefore, actually have been exposed to a struggle for existence, and consequently to the rigid law of natural selection. Beneficial variations of all kinds will thus, either occasionally or habitually, have been preserved and injurious ones eliminated." Mr. Darwin emphasizes the importance of variations in the direc- tion of greater intelligence and the development of those social instincts which lead mankind to cooperate for mutual defense. These traits which are so characteristic of man would therefore tend to be developed by natural selection during the entire course of human development. 181 i82 THE TREND OF THE RACE We often find it stated that in mankind natural selection has been practically done away with by our advances in civilization. We no longer 1 live in fear of wild beasts; human beings seldom die of starvation or succumb to the direct effects of climate. We endeavor to keep alive the weaklings who would perish under a more primitive regime. Everything is done which is rendered possible by our knowledge and skill to prevent natural selection from eliminating the ill-favored members of our race. Nevertheless the operation of natural selection is far from completely checked. However far science may advance, it will always lie beyond our power to do away entirely with its action. Dr. G. A. Reid in his Present Evolution of Man maintains that man's advance "is not mainly an evolution of physical or intel- lectual strength, as in his remote ancestry, but mainly an evolu- tion against disease." While there are several evolutionary factors which Dr. Reid has not considered in his book, he is doubt- less correct in his contention that the course of our development in the past has been greatly influenced by the selective action of various diseases, and that it will probably continue to be so in the future. Races tend, through the action of natural selection, to become immunized to prevalent diseases. Most diseases act much more severely upon some individuals than others. Many people are practically immune to certain diseases, and some races are more or less immune to diseases which in other races have a high fatality. The relative immunity of the negro race to malaria is well known. According to Hirsch (Geographical and Historical Pathology, I, p. 245) there died of malarial fevers per thousand of the population in Ceylon Negroes i . i Natives of India 4.5 Malays 6.7 Natives of Ceylon . : 7 Europeans 24 . 6 1 Indirectly, of course, lack of adequate nutrition is a frequent source of death as it predisposes people to die from various diseases. The same may be said of the indirect effects of climate. NATURAL SELECTION IN MAN 183 In the most malarious districts of the West coast of Africa mem- bers of the white race would probably be eliminated hi a few generations. Hay craft states that "the black population of Sierre Leone have only a mortality of .24 per cent, from malaria, while the mortality of the white settlers is 47 per cent." Measles, which is a common but not severe malady with us, is said to have swept away 40,000 of the 150,000 of the inhabitants of the Fiji Islands in 1876. Tuberculosis is apparently more fatal among the negroes, American Indians and the races of the South Pacific than it is among ourselves. The Chinese enjoy a peculiar im- munity to typhoid fever, and cancer is probably more prevalent hi Caucasians than among more primitive races. These are a few of the facts which indicate that the same selec- tive agency may act very differently upon different racial stocks. The complex of conditions presented by life in India bear more hardly upon Europeans than upon the Hindus. In the United States the conditions, which include economic and social as well as climatic factors, are much more fatal to the negroes than to the whites. According to the last census reports the anticipation of life for white males is 50.23 years and for white females 53.62 years; but for negro males it is only 35.05 years and for negro females 37.67 years. The effect of selective agencies upon different races doubtless has much to do in deterrriining the present geographical distribu- tion of the races of mankind. The negro population would never invade the arctic circle even if there were no other human com- petitors; and were it not for their relative immunity to malaria they would probably long ago have been eliminated from Africa by invaders from other lands. As Dr. J. A. Lindsay has pointed out, the selective influence of disease cannot be treated in general terms. Some diseases, like the plague, cholera and typhus pro- duce much greater ravages among the slum elements of the popu- lation than among the well-to-do, whereas influenza is much more apt to attack all classes alike. The latter disease causes a much higher death rate among the older people and especially those with pulmonary affections. The common children's diseases, i84 THE TREND OF THE RACE whooping cough, measles, scarlet fever and diphtheria are very prevalent among all classes. The mortality of the first three is much greater among the children of the poor, whereas diphtheria when allowed to run its natural course has a high mortality among rich and poor alike. With measles and whooping cough mortality is largely dependent upon general health, whereas with diphtheria this is not nearly so obvious. Some epidemic diseases are doubtless selective in their nature, eliminating to a greater degree those with weakened constitutions, .whereas others apparently possess little selective value so far as can be observed. Some diseases, therefore, may be racial bles- sings in disguise, whereas others may have simply a depressing influence on the race as a whole. There is evidence to show that in the white race there are different degrees of susceptibility to several diseases correlated with differences in the degree of pig- mentation. Baxter, in his study of large numbers of soldiers of the Civil War, concluded that those with a light complexion were more liable to disease and suffered more from their injuries than those with a dark complexion. The proportions of recruits re- jected for military service were, among the blonds, 385.2 per thousand, and among the dark complexioned, 325 per thousand. Eye troubles in the two classes were in the proportion of blonds 22 and dark 18. In Scotland, according to Tocher, the incidence of insanity is greater among the people of light colored eyes. McDonald has studied the relation between pigmentation and disease in a large number of children in the hospitals at Glasgow. He finds that in regard to diphtheria, whooping cough, scarlet fever and measles, " the dark-haired, dark-eyed child has consid- erably more recuperative power than the fair-haired, light-eyed child. The medium-haired medium-eyed child occupies an inter- mediate position as regards recuperative power." "The closer the type approximates the fair, the less recuperative power it has, and the less resistance it offers to the diseases." These results are quite parallel to what has often been observed among animals. Darwin states on the authority of Professor Wyman that dark pigmented swine in Virginia eat with impunity NATURAL SELECTION IN MAN 185 the paintroot (Lachnanthes) that is poisonous to white swine. Black sheep, according to Heusinger, possess a similar immunity to certain plants injurious to white sheep. And there are cases in which infectious diseases are more fatal to light than to dark colored breeds of animals. It is generally held that tuberculosis is more apt to attack individuals with defective vitality. The tendency of tuberculosis to run in families has long been recognized, but since it was demonstrated that this disease is caused by bacterial infection, it has not been regarded as truly hereditary. Direct transfer from mother to embryo is exceedingly rare. It is probable, however, that there are hereditary differences in the liability of individuals to become infected. Pearson and his co-workers have collected evidence to show that the correlation between parents and children for tuberculosis (which lies between .4 and .6) is higher than the correlation between the occurrence of tuberculosis and unfavorable environment such as poor housing and bad ventila- tion. A parent-offspring or a fraternal correlation is not neces- sarily the result of heredity. It might also be brought about by the transmission of an infection quite apart from heredity. It is argued, however, that since the correlation for tuberculosis in husband and wife where the chances for infection are presumably equally great lies between o and .3, and as a part of this correla- tion is probably due to assortative mating, or the tendency of like or similarly situated individuals to intermarry, the parent-off- spring correlation must be mainly the result of an hereditary proclivity to infection. It may be questioned, however, if tuberculosis is as apt to be conveyed in the marital relation as it is from parent to offspring. If, as many authors now contend, tuberculosis is usually acquired in childhood, often lying latent until some condition causes it to flare up in adult life, the high value of the parent-offspring corre- lation may be the result of early infection rather than a hereditary diathesis. On the other hand, autopsies show that the great majority of human beings are infected by tuberculosis some time during i86 THE TREND OF THE RACE their lives and generally before adult age. Hamburger states that in Vienna 95 per cent of the children of the poor between 12 and 13 years of age are infected, and he thinks that practically all will be infected before they reach adult life. If it should be established that most people become tuberculous at an early age, the hypothesis that the parent-offspring correlation for tubercu- losis is due simply to opportunities for infection will hardly suffice to explain the fact. The generality of early infection is a matter to be considered in interpreting the significance of the correlation. If almost every one has become infected, and thus has the oppor- tunity to develop tuberculosis, and if the existence of the more severe forms of the disease is more closely associated with blood relationship than it is with the surrounding conditions under which tuberculosis is apt to become manifest, the evidence would strongly point to the importance of the hereditary factor. The problem is a difficult one about which there has been considerable controversy, and we shall have to await further insight into the subject before the precise r61e of heredity can be fully established. Should the hereditary factor be a potent one it would indicate that natural selection is acting to remove the stocks with a tuber- cular diathesis. That natural selection tends to eliminate stocks with a pro- clivity to other diseases is evident. Several diseases such as diabetes, Blight's disease, Huntington's chorea and others which are known to be transmitted are not infrequent causes of death. Dwarfism, ichthyosis, xeroderma, albinism, hereditary cataract, and deaf mutism, while not in themselves fatal, may lesson the chances for leaving offspring and hence lead to the extinction of stocks in which they occur. Haemophilia which is transmitted as a sex linked character would tend inevitably to be eliminated by natural selection since it greatly increases the danger from any wound that causes the loss of blood. Lessen states that 18 out of the 37 deaths in the celebrated Mampel family were due to this malady. The hereditary forms of insanity not only keep their victims from propagating their kind, but they often tend to shorten their lives. Brower and Bannister state that in the NATURAL SELECTION IN MAN 187 best regulated asylums the death rate "is hardly less than 7 per cent, even under favorable conditions," which is about four times as great as should exist hi well-regulated municipalities of the ordinary population. If, however, we take out certain forms of insanity, such as paresis and organic dementia, we have the ratio somewhat reduced. In any case, however, it will decidedly exceed that amongst the general population. The death rate in asylums is less than that of the insane outside of these institutions. Barr (Mental Defectives, p. 131) states that out of 625 cases of mental defectives of whose deaths he had records, "the largest number of deaths occurred between 10 and 20 years; but comparatively few passed the 25th year and exceptional cases appeared from 30 to 40 years." According to Clark and Stowell in the New York City Children's Hospitals and Schools the mortality among the feeble-minded is double that of other children, and the mortality of the lowest grades, idiots and imbeciles, is four times as great as among the feeble-minded. With the higher grades of the feeble- minded the expectation of life is much greater, but among these natural selection takes a relatively heavy toll as is evinced by their high infant mortality. It is a fair inference that natural selection causes a higher mortality among those who, while not feeble-minded, are below the general average of intelligence. Not only is their station in life apt to be such as to raise their death rate, but through igno- rance or lack of the ability to afford the proper surroundings for their children they have a high infant mortality which tends to offset, in a measure, their greater fecundity. Contrasted with the rather high general death rate of inferior stocks is the relatively low death rate of the classes with excep- tional intelligence. Sir Francis Galton has noted that English men of science as a class are long lived, and Cattell finds that the death rate and especially the infant mortality in the families of American men of science is unusually low. The death rate is relatively low in professional classes in general and among others who have achieved a noteworthy success in other fields. If it is said that their reduced death rate is due to better environment i88 THE TREND OF THE RACE we must bear in mind that their better environment is to a large extent the result of their belonging to hereditary stocks at least a little above the general average of humanity. If the birth rates of the classes that achieve success by virtue of their inherent superiority were as high or nearly as high as it is among their less favored brethren the general level of ability would doubtless be raised through natural selection. Unfortunately under our present social conditions natural selection and reproductive selection frequently work in opposite directions, and the evidence points to the conclusion that the influence of the latter is gener- ally the more potent. For a number of years Professor Karl Pearson and several of his associates have been endeavoring to demonstrate by statistical methods that natural selection is actually at work among human beings and to obtain a measure of the intensity of its action. From data on the general health of professional classes which were exposed to much the same environmental influences, Pearson found a parent-offspring correlation of .3824 which is indicative of a fair amount of hereditary resemblance. Longevity was found byBeeton and Pearson to run in families as has long been believed and as in fact common observation seems to show. In selected groups such as the British Landed Gentry and the Peerage where environmental differences play a relatively small r61e, a marked correlation was found between the length of life of father and son and also between the length of life of brothers. Great length of life was also found to be correlated with increased fertility. It is, of course, obvious that up to the end of the reproductive period, the longer people live the more children they may be expected to have. But the fact that the longer women live after their reproductive period the more children they are likely to have in this period indicates that increased fertility and longevity are both the result of a high degree of vitality. " Of two women who both lived beyond 50 years, the longer lived is likely to have had before 50 the large* family." (Beeton, Yule and Pearson.) Similar results were obtained by Powys from data obtained in New South Wales. Fecundity was found to increase in women NATURAL SELECTION IN MAN 189 as their age at death increased from 45 to 65-70 years and then to decrease somewhat. " Childless women and mothers of extremely small families have shorter expectation of life than mothers of moderate sized families." With families of more than six children the mother's expectation of life diminishes. In a memoir by Beeton and Pearson it is remarked: "I [K. P.?] think, therefore, that we can no longer talk of natural selection as an hypothesis. It is in the case of man demonstrably at work either changing in a quantitatively definite manner his constitution as a whole or else necessary to keep that constitution stable. It is now not correct to say as Lord Salisbury said in 1894 of natural selection ' No man, so far as we know, has ever seen it at work.' It is sensibly and visibly at work; a factor in 50 to 80 per cent of the deaths in the case of man is not a slight perturbation ... it is something we run up against at once, almost as soon as we examine a mortality table." Attempts have been made to demonstrate the workings of natural selection by studying the changes occurring in the human population of limited districts. Among the most extensive inves- tigations in this field are those of 0. Ammon upon the inhabitants of Baden. The people of this duchy were held to consist mainly of two racial elements, a relatively tall, blond, blue-eyed, dolicho- cephalic "Germanic" race, and a small, dark-haired, dark-eyed, round-headed "mongoloid" race. The long-headed types were found to prevail more in cities and towns than in the country, and the older urban inhabitants were found to be more dolichoceph- alic than the recent ones. The long heads being the more intelli- gent, superior stock tended to supplant the round heads in the cities where the struggle for position depends more than in the rural districts upon the possession of superior mental and moral qualities. It is the dolichocephalic, according to Ammon, that form the aristocratic race, fitted by their superior endowments to form a ruling caste. They are found in greater numbers in the higher walks of life and they are relatively more abundant hi the higher than in the lower grades of the gymnasia. In the migra- tion of peoples from the country to the city which it is assumed igo THE TREND OF THE RACE has been going on for a long time it is supposed that the greater preponderance of the dolichocephalic race in the city population, and especially in the higher levels of wealth and culture is the result of the action of natural selection in favor of the superior type. The city draws the best of the country stock, and of the inhabitants that have migrated to the country the more dolicho- cephalic succeed best in the struggle for wealth and power. We may admit that Ammon has shown that in Baden changes have been taking place in the characteristics of the inhabitants. It is not so clear, however, that these changes have been chiefly the result of natural selection. The racial composition of com- munities is very apt to change as the result of migration and the operation of differential fecundity. Many of us have witnessed in this country a marked change in the character of the population of restricted localities within a period of a few decades. And it is quite evident that such changes are not due to natural selection. Observation of a change in the inhabitants occurring in a small area and in a comparatively short interval of time will not offer conclusive evidence regarding the factors producing the change. Most of the anthropometric data assembled to prove the opera- tion of natural selection is not convincing in that it does not exclude the operation of other possible causes. Any consideration of the role of natural selection in man must take account of the much discussed question of the selective nature of the infant death rate. The first year is by far the most precarious period of life. The infant mortality rate varies enor- mously in different countries, according to social and economic conditions and the general enlightenment of the inhabitants. In Chile in 1903 it was over 352 per thousand births. For several decades hi most countries of Europe the infant mortality rate has been somewhere between 100 and 200 per thousand. It is high in Prussia, Austria, Hungary and Russia, but exceptionally low in Norway and Sweden. It is low in Australia and lowest of all in New Zealand where it reached the remarkable figure of5iini9i2. The infant mortality of the United States has been estimated at 124 for 1910, although hi the absence of data on the birth rate NATURAL SELECTION IN MAN 191 this figure can be considered only as a rough approximation to the truth. It is a remarkable fact that while the death rate of most civi- lized countries has been falling for the past hundred years the infant death rate in general should have suffered little improve- ment and in some countries actually increased up to the beginning of the 2oth century. During the past few years much greater attention has been devoted to the subject, and a variety of organ- izations have been active in checking the inexcusable loss of infant life which has been so long suffered to go on, and as a consequence infant mortality in many localities has very rapidly fallen. In the same country enormous differences in the infant death rate still exist in different towns and sections not far removed from each other, as may be illustrated by the infant mortality rates of the following towns of Massachusetts in 1912: Chicopee 177 North Adams 1 13 . i Waltham 86.8 Brookline 55 These conditions are usually associated with the economic status of the inhabitants. The death rate is higher in urban than in rural districts, and it increases in cities with the greater density of the population. In all places infant mortality is very much higher among the poor. In fact Mr. Ashby states that "poverty is perhaps the first and greatest predisposing factor in infant mortality." Duncan and Duke in their valuable survey of the infant mortality of Manchester, N. H., find that the rate of infant deaths rapidly falls as the income of the father rises. Where the annual earnings of the fathers are less than $450, the infant mortality rate was found to be 242.9. Fathers earning from $650 to $850 lose 162.6 per thousand of their children, while those earning $1,250 and over, lose only 58.3. Among the foreign born mothers of Manchester the death rate was 183.5, while among the native 192 THE TREND OF THE RACE born it was 128.1. The relatively preventable character of this mortality is indicated by the fact that length of residence in the United States was found to affect greatly the infant mortality of the foreign born mothers; those mothers who had been here over five years had an infant mortality rate of 165.7, while for those who had been here less than that time the rate was 248.8. An investigation of the infant mortality of Montclair, N. J., by the Children's Bureau gave the infant mortality among the native white women as 49, among the foreign born as 88.1, and among the negroes 151.5. Wolf compiled statistics in Erfurt, Germany, which indicated that out of the one thousand babies born, 505 died among the working class 173 " " " middle " 89 " " " rich Dr. John Robertson found the infant mortality in Birmingham, England, in 1915 to be 200 per 1,000 among the poor, and 50 per i ,000 among the middle class and rich. He found that when the father earned less than £i a week if the mother were employed at a factory the infant mortality was 203, if she were employed at home or elsewhere it was 187, and if not employed 191. If the father earned over £i a week and the mother was employed in a factory the infant mortality was 1 23, if employed at home or else- where it was 53, and if she were unemployed, 99. Undoubtedly a large amount of infant mortality is the result of the ignorance and inexperience of mothers. Poor milk, im- proper feeding, inadequate medical attention, and unsanitary liv- ing conditions are responsible for many deaths of infants especially among the poor. Undoubtedly as a result of these conditions large numbers of normal and healthy infants perish. Several epidemics common to infancy and childhood are practically as apt to take the strong as the weak, and with improper care during illness even an exceptionally strong child may die. Many stu- dents of the subject consider that the infant death rate is for the most part quite indiscriminate and non-selective in its action. NATURAL SELECTION IN MAN 193 From the point of view of racial welfare one should distinguish between the elimination of infants who are destined to produce inferior adults and infants who, though weak, grow up into adults who are strong and healthy. The preservation of the latter class of infants would not lead to undesirable developments, except perhaps in making it necessary for parents to bestow more care upon their new born children. As the human species evolved from animal ancestry infants became progressively weaker and required more and more attention for their successful rearing. Along with this there went an increase in the amount of parental care devoted to the young. Infants may be very poorly adapted to survival in an unfavorable environment and nevertheless form, as adults, the most desirable types of the race. Goethe as an infant was very puny and his life was for a time almost despaired of, but as a man he was exceptionally robust, vigorous and long lived. It is only in so far as infantile weakness is correlated with weakness or defect in later life that the elimination of the less hardy babies would have any relation to racial improvement. It is probable that despite many exceptions there is a general correlation between weakness in infancy and weakness in later life. Ploetz has adduced evidence to show that infant and child mortality is less in stocks with greater longevity. Part of the data were obtained from records of royal families (fiirstliche Familien) of Germany and another part from families mainly of the middle class (burgerliche Familien). The results may be seen in the following table: 194 THE TREND OF THE RACE 5 *o £> tn c3 g b I.S o> nj li en Cvj •S 0 ^ tn en 3 » "a 3 C ^tn HI C en rt 'C *~^ c *T3 C o '3 H J fe d % ~ r: i C, O *•- Oo *- 00 0 «-» to O t>« VQ ON « 10 ON cv> OO •^~ "3 1 °° *"* CO 00 OO ^ *j CM °1 °° *^ CO 00 vc, tO t^ K, £•< CO M P) *"* to M ^ co , „ O vo *"• **" vo H t^« fi 00 H ^ CO HI 9 •N ON I to O "1" vo "O vO CO CM CO ^ ** 00 ^ M ^ 0 HI M H ^ to VO °0 vO ON • CO vo to Tf to VO CM HI IO vo vo CM OO 00 CM ^" ^" co co co • ^ O • CS HI VO HI X5 CO M HI CO IO HI to •^ M CO CO HI <^- t^ CM OO ts. « IN CO P) ? vo O vo vo VO M C( IO M CO i? o ^ W~ co 6 M to HI N t>. to O IO CM VO s^s * HI CO 0) CO w cs TT CM p» 5- • M ON tv. M rj- M ON °0 « s *> to O vo M 6 • O vo *^*i 00 O o <% ^ ^^ t^ HI CM »O H <"•>, 1 co "-< tO CN1 V>> ^ ^- K) ^ CM " HI C*^ t^> to O lo t^ CO • «>. to vo to w ^ HI VO M ^2. ^^ w 1 HI VO HI oo t^ vo ON CO • — t- t^« * O 00 o to • VQ 10 M CO Tj- M CO ON CO co IO HI HI IO HI t^ »«. «O <* * CO CO CO H CO JT OO ON M* CO vO ^^ f-s. . r>. co t^ t*~ IO CO CO co •<*• to oo co 1 O H 00 ^ M CM oo to O CO HI T}- OO t^ • co VO HI CO HI HI CO M OO PI vo CO ON ON IO M CO to vO 00 T5 VO co ON CO CO CM ON PI 00 CO ON Ht CM a 0 « Procreation during Intoxication. Brit. Jour. Inebriety, 8, 146-50, 1910-11; also Jour. Inebriety, Boston, 32, 105-10, 1910. 1st Al- koholismus eine Ursache der Entartung? Arch. f. Kriminalanthrop. u. Krim- inalstatistik. 45, 144-165, 1911: Die Tatsachen iiber den Alkohol, 4th ed. Munich, 1912. Horsley, V., and Sturge, M. D. Alcohol and the Human Body. Macmillan Co., London, 1907, 5th ed., 1915. Laitenen, T. Ueber den Einfluss der kleinen Alkoholgaben auf die Entwicklung der Tuberculose im tierischen Korper mit bes. Beriicksichtigung der Nach- kommenschaft. Beitrage zur path Anat. u. allg. Path. 51, 267-278, 1911. See articles in Zeit. f. Hyg. u. Infektionskrank. 58, 139-164, 1907. Brit. Jour. Inebriety, Oct., 1909. Verh. 10 antialk. Kongress, 1904; Internal. Monatschr. z. Erforsch. d. Alkoholismus, 20, 193-98, 1910. Laquer, B. Massigkeit und Enthaltsamkeit. Alkohol und Nachkommenscaft. Wiesbaden, 1913. Legrain, M. P. Heredite et Alcoolisme. O. Doin. Paris, 1889. MacNicholl, T. A. Alcohol and the Disabilities of School Children. Jour. Am. Med. Ass. 48, 396-98, 1907; also art. in Med. Temperance Rev., 1905, p. 246, and 1909, p. 53. Mjoen, J. A. Alkohol, Entartung und Rassenhygiene. Internat. Monatschr. f. Erforsch. d. Alkoholismus, 25, 317-331, 1915. See art. in Alkoholfrage, Berlin, n. F. n, 327-336. Nice, L. B. Comparative Studies on the Effects of Alcohol, Nicotine, Tobacco Smoke and Caffeine on White Mice, i ; Effects on Reproduction and Growth. Jour. Exp. Zool. 12, 133-152, 1912. Oliver, T. Diseases of Occupation. Methuen, London, 1908; Lead Poisoning and the Race. Brit. Med. Jour. 1911, 1096-98; also Eugenics Rev. 3, 83-93, 1911- Paul, C. fitude sur ITntoxication lente par les Preparations de Plomb, de son Influence sur le Product de la Conception. Arch. Gen. de M6d. 15, 573, 1860. Pearl, R. The Experimental Modification of Germ Cells, I, Jour. Exp. Zool. 22, 125-164; II, 1. c. 22, 165-186; III, 1. c. 22, 241-310, 1917. Pearson, K. The Influence of Parental Alcoholism on the Physique and Ability of the Offspring: A Reply to the Cambridge Economists. Questions of the Day and Fray, No. i. See also the same series, No. 3 and Jour. Roy. Stat. Soc. 74, 221-229, 1910-11. Pearson, K., and Elderton, E. M. A Second Study of the Influence of Parental 296 THE TREND OF THE RACE Alcoholism on the Physique and Ability of Offspring. Being a Reply to Cer- tain Critics of the First Memoir and an Examination of the Rebutting Evi- dence Cited by Them. Eugenics Lab. Mems. 13, 1910. Ploetz, A. Die Bedeutung des Alkohols fur Leben und Entwicklung der Rasse. Arch. Rass. Ges. Biol. i, 229-253, 1004. Potts, W. A. et al. The Relation of Alcohol to Feeble-Mindedness. Brit. Jour. Inebriety, Jan., 1909. See also, 1. c., 10, 66-68, 1912-13. Reid, G. A. Alcoholism: A Study in Heredity. Fischer Unwin, London, 1901. Ribakoff, F. Y. Heredity and Alcoholism: Statistical Investigation Based on 2,000 Cases. Jour. Nevrop. i. Psikhiat. Korsikakova. Mosk. 10, 338-348, 1910. Alkoholismus und Erblichkeit. Monatschr. f. Psychiat. u. Neur. 20 Erganz. Hft. 221-234, 1906. Saleeby, C. W. Racial Poisons, II. Alcohol. Eugen. Rev. 2, 30-52, 1910. See also Brit. Jour. Inebriety, 7, 7-20, 1909, and 1. c. 13, 23-26, 1915-1916 and Discus- sion of Racial Poisons in Parenthood and Race Culture and Progress of Eugenics. Sollier, P. Du R&le de I'He'redite' dans 1'Alcoolisme. Paris, 1889. Sichel, M. Der Alkohol als Ursache der Belastung. Neur. Zent. 29, 738-748, 1910. Stockard, C. R. The Effect on the Offspring of Intoxicating the Male Parent and the Transmission of the Defects to Subsequent Generations. Am. Nat. 47, 641-682, 1913. Stockard, C. R., and Craig, D. M. An Experimental Study of the Influence of Alcohol on the Germ Cells and the Developing Embryos of Mammals. Arch, f. Entw.-Mech. 35, 569-584, 1912. Stockard, C. R., and Papanicolaou, G. N. A Further Analysis of the Hereditary Transmission of Degeneracy and Deformities by the Descendants of Al- coholized Animals. Am. Nat. 50, 65-88, and 144-177, 1916. Further Studies on the Modification of the Germ-Cells in Mammals. The Effect of Alcohol on Treated Guinea Pigs and their Descendants. Jour. Exp. Zool. 26, 119-226, 1918. Sturge, M., and Horsley, V. Alcoholism and Degeneration. Brit. Med. Jour., 1910, II, 1656, 2048. See also, 1. c. 1911, 1, 71-82. Sullivan, W. C. Alcoholism, London, 1906. U. S. Brewers' Association Year Book, 1914, Chapter on Alcohol and Heredity. Weller, C. V. The Blastophthoric Effect of Lead Poisoning. Jour. Med. Res. 28, 271-293, 1915. Westergaard, H. Der Alkoholismus der Eltern und die Kinder. Internal. Monat- schr. z. Erforsch. d. Alkoholismus. 23, 121-136, 1913. Woods, M. Seven Cases of Epilepsy in Children Traced to Single Alcoholic In- toxications on the Part of one or both Parents, Otherwise Teetetalers. Tr. Internal. Congr. Med. 1913, London, 1914, Section 12, Pt. 2, 161-167. CHAPTER XIII THE ALLEGED INFLUENCE OF ORDER OF BIRTH AND AGE OF PARENTS UPON OFFSPRING. OUR information on the subjects treated in the present chapter is in a most unsatisfactory state. It is with some hesitation that I have ventured to discuss them at all, but on account of their importance for the general problem of human evolution it was thought that it might be useful to treat them briefly, even though little more was done than to exhibit the imperfections of our knowledge and to point out some of the pitfalls into which the unwary have so frequently fallen. In regard to the influence of order of birth upon offspring there is one conclusion which we may feel warranted in drawing with some confidence. The first born children are apt to be lighter in weight and shorter in height than those of later births. Nothing is involved in the establishment of this conclusion beyond the collection and comparison of data on the weight and size of newly born infants and there is no reason to doubt the generality of the conclusion just expressed. Dr. Matthews Dun- can gives the following data on the weights and lengths of infants according to the order of their birth : Birth Rank i 2 3 4 5 6 7 and over Average Weight in Ibs 7.20 19.20 7-31 IQ.24 7-35 19.30 7.19 18.96 7-45 19.27 7-32 18.96 7.3i 18.99 7.26 19.19 Length in inches Pearson submits the following table on the weights of 2,000 babies, excluding twins and illegitimate births, from the records of the Lambeth Lying-in Hospital: Birth Order i 2 3-4 5-6 7-8 9-10 1 1 and over Mean Weight Boys 7.01 6.76 7-36 7.08 7-4i 7-33 7.70 7-36 7.91 7-32 7-59 7-6S 7.92 7.88 7.40 7-iS Girls 297 298 THE TREND OF THE RACE The lengths of the same series of babies were found to be as follows: Birth Order i 2 3~4 5-6 7-8 p-/o Handover Mean Length Boys. . 20.62 20.27 20.82 20-33 20.80 20.51 20.95 20.43 20.98 20.36 20.99 20.41 21. 14 20.73 20.81 20.38 Girls These sets of tables, — and there is considerable additional evidence to the same effect, — indicate that the first born infants of both sexes are lighter in weight and shorter than the second born, and that there is a general increase according to order of birth until near the close of the child-bearing period. The reason for the relatively small size and weight of the first born may lie in the fact that the mothers are, on the average, young, and also in the circumstance that their organization is not so well adapted to child bearing as it becomes after one or more births. It is well known that the first birth is usually the most difficult. There is a relatively larger number of stillbirths among the first born. Taking the records of 48,843 births among the professional and upper classes, Ansell found the proportions of stillbirths distrib- uted as follows: Order of Birth i 2 3 4-6 7 and over Still births per 1,000 born alive. ... 40 2O ic. e 17.4 20. Q According to Ansell there is a greater mortality among the first born in the first year of life. From the records of the 48,843 births just mentioned he obtains the following data: Order of Birth / 2 3 4-6 7 and over Deaths in i st year per i ,000 living births . 82.2 70 69 78.3 97-4 Additional evidence in the same direction is furnished by Pearson from the records of the artisan classes from several INFLUENCE OF ORDER OF BIRTH, ETC. 299 English towns. The following table gives the death and delicacy rates of 3,000 babies born in Bradford: Order of Birth I 2-3 4-5 7-6 8-9 10-11 12+ Death rate in ist year 16. 2 12.4 I? 14. -z 17.4 17. 7 •z-z . * Delicacy rate in ist year. . . . 3-9 4.2 5-7 6-5 6 8-3 9 Both combined 20. i 16.6 18.7 20.8 23.4 26 42.3 Data from births in Sheffield yield closely parallel results : Order of Births i 2 3-4 5-6 7-8 9-10 11-12 13+ Total births 636 12.9 691 ii. 6 1156 "•5 843 10.6 Si8 12.6 334 16.2 143 ii. 9 IOI 24.8 Death rate in ist year per 1,000 births All of these results show that the death rate of infants is rela- tively high for the first born and that it tends to decrease succes- sively with the second and third and sometimes the fourth or fifth born, after which there is a rise in the death rate which is particularly high after the birth of the twelfth or thirteenth child. That the greater mortality of the first born is due to the same causes which give rise to reduced size and weight is a conclusion which, although having a certain amount of plausibility, it would be rash to adopt, at least as an explanation of the whole difference between the death rate of first and later born children. The first born would naturally suffer more from the ignorance and inex- perience of their mothers and there are other factors which would affect unequally the various children of a family. Biological and social factors may both affect the death rate of the first children of a family, and it is a matter of great difficulty to assign to each its proper role. Whatever may be the reasons why the first born are handicapped in the first year of life, it is of much interest to ascertain if this handicap persists in later years. Pearson and some of his co-workers have maintained that this initial disadvan- tage is correlated with a greater liability to tuberculosis, insanity and other afflictions of adult life. As an illustration of the method 300 THE TREND OF THE RACE employed by Pearson and his colleagues we may consider the First Study of the Statistics of Pulmonary Tuberculosis which gives data on the order of birth and size of family of 381 tuberculous patients from the Crossley Sanitorium at Frodsham, England. The assumption was made, — which could not be far from the truth — that only one patient was drawn from a single family, and since there were 381 families represented, each of which must have contained a first born member there must have been 381 individ- uals among the families represented who were first born-children. Since the size of the families was ascertained the numbers of second, third and subsequent born could readily be calculated. If we divide the tuberculous patients in the first, second and third born, etc., in the same ratio in which these classes occur in the members of the tuberculous families in general, we obtain a series of numbers which may be compared with the members of first, second, third, etc., born among the tuberculous patients which were actually found. The following table gives the expected frequency of tuberculosis patients and the actual frequency in the groups representing the various orders of birth: Over Order of i 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 IO II 12 13 '4 14 Birth No. of cases observed. . "3 79 4i 52 39 18 18 9 3 3 3 I I i o No. of cases calculated. . 67.1 64.4 58-5 SO.Q 43-5 32.6 22.2 IS-I 10 6.2 3-7 2.6 1.6 i.i 1.6 The table indicates a great preponderance of the tuberculous among the first born. Comparisons of the distribution of tuber- culous patients with the relative proportions of first, second and subsequent born among the population of New South Wales showed the same excess of the tuberculous among the earlier born individuals. Dr. Heron has come to the conclusion that insanity is especially prone to attack the first born members of a stock. In Goring's INFLUENCE OF ORDER OF BIRTH, ETC. 301 excellent work on The English Convict it is claimed that crimi- nality develops in the first born to a much greater extent than it does in the later born members of the stock from which the crim- inals are derived. Pearson confirms the deductions of Heron and Goring for insanity and criminality, and he has adduced data to show that the first born are unusually liable to albinism, imbecil- ity, epilepsy and cataract. A number of writers have attacked the findings of Pearson and his colleagues on the ground that they are based upon a statistical fallacy. Greenwood and Yule have arrived at a quite different ordinal distribution of the relative number of individuals in the members of the families of the marked individuals. When we are dealing with cases of insanity or tuberculosis in which we start with individuals, say in institutions, it is obvious that all members of the marked person's family are not equally apt to be found in the segregated class. There is an age at which insanity and tuberculosis is more than likely to appear and the chances are decidedly against two persons from the same family being con- fined at the same time, there being an especially strong bias against the members who have not reached adult life. Recently Pearson's methods have been attacked by Dublin and Langham of the Statistical Bureau of the Metropolitan Life Insurance Company of New York. These authors contend that Pearson's method "is based unequivocally on the assumption that the distribution according to order of birth of the pathologic com- munity from which his 'marked' or affected subjects are ob- tained is identical with the distribution of the sibships of these subjects. For if that be the case he can use the distribution of the sibships of the affected as a norm in comparing with it the distribution of the affected, in the effort to show that actually the early born among his subjects preponderate beyond all ex- pected proportions. We shall endeavor to show that, when there is no weighing according to order of birth among the individuals affected, the distribution of the affected or that of the pathologi- cal community represented by them is not in any case compar- able with that of their sibships. We propose to take the distri- 302 THE TREND OF THE RACE bution of a normal population, and, supposing all members of it to be liable to some disease in equal proportions, obtain from it the distribution of the sibships of the affected by order of birth which is to be expected on the assumption made. We shall find that the distribution of the sibships is by necessity so different as to account for practically the whole difference found by Pear- son." Here we have differences of opinion among statistical experts regarding a purely mathematical problem, quite apart from any biological or social factors which may possibly be involved in it. Dublin and Langham have arrived at precisely the same theoret- ical distribution of 381 tuberculous patients as Greenwood and Yule found. The statistics show that there is still a preponder- ance of first born among the tuberculous, but it is so much less than that estimated by Pearson that the authors do not consider it especially significant. Pearson has replied to Greenwood and Yule — and his argument would affect the criticisms of Dublin and Langham also — claiming that their method, when applied to the kind of material which is investigated leads to incorrect results. We shall not attempt to enter upon a discussion of the details of the mathematical ques- tions which are the subject of controversy. There is occasionally a surplus of first born over the expectation as estimated by the methods of Greenwood and Yule as is the case with tuberculosis, criminality and insanity. Characteristics found to occur fre- quently in small families will naturally be found in a relatively large percentage of first born offspring. As Pearson remarks, "Certain types of parental degeneracy seem incapable of pro- ducing more than one or two children at most, and the children of such parents are themselves feeble. But, if any small families are thus selected, we shall increase the number of early-borns in the diseased population, for such small families have no late- borns." It may very well happen that the first-borns may be relatively abundant in a diseased or defective stock, although they may not be relatively less frequent among the sibships of the affected stock INFLUENCE OF ORDER OF BIRTH, ETC. 303 than among the affected persons themselves. This would be the case if the affected families were small. It is very desirable to have data on the relative position of the affected person in indi- vidual families of two, three, four, five, etc., persons so that it could be ascertained whether or not within the limits of families of a given size the marked individuals occur in preponderating numbers in any given position. Data grouped in this way would enable us to avoid several pitfalls incident upon handling mass statistics. In the data of Weeks on the order of birth of epileptics there is, as Pearson states, "no excess of the eldest-born in the individual families; if there be any excess it is in the interme- diates. Thus, if we may trust this data, which are slender, there is no weighting of the first-born in the case of epilepsy unless it arises from the weighting of small families." Treating the data by the methods employed in other cases Pearson finds an excess of epileptics among the first born. "We must, I think, conclude," he remarks, "by recognizing that, while there is a weighting in epilepsy, this is due to a selection of families rather than to a selection of the elder-born in each family." How far the rela- tively large proportion of first-borns in Pearson's data on other defects may be due to the selection of small families is, of course, uncertain. It is of value to know, however, whether the relative preponderance of the first born in pathological stocks is due to the smallness of the family. As Pearson remarks, "We are shooting, so to speak, at the entire population of first borns, and a bias with regard to selection of weaker families may come in, in much the same way as families up to six or seven may be the sign of healthy parents, and so the offspring will be less liable to disease. This idea cannot be excluded. But in itself it indicates how inadequate is the proposal to treat the problem only within families of con- stant size." However it happens that the first born in the population in general comes to be selected for defect or disease, the reduction of the size of families leading to an increase in the relative propor- tion of first born individuals will inevitably cause an exaggeration of several undesirable hereditary traits. In so far as the birth 304 THE TREND OF THE RACE rate is allowed to take its natural course large families offer some evidence of physical vigor whatever they may indicate as to mentality. A general reduction of the birth rate has, therefore, its dangers, at least for the physical vigor of the population, since it would probably involve a greater proportionate reduction of healthy and vigorous stocks. It would indeed be unfortunate if a reduction of the birth rate in the larger families would lead to the reduction of the best members of the stocks in addition to the loss of physical vigor otherwise involved. Whether ordinal position in the family except in the matter of weight, size and infantile death rate, is per se a handicap is a question which most of our data do not enable us to decide. The fact that there is a greater percentage of deaths among the first born than there is among the second or third born does not prove that the second or third born member of any particular family is less likely to die than the first born. The large percentage of deaths among the first born may be due to the fact that a large proportion of early deaths occur in families containing only one or two children. The data do not prove that in families in which three or four children are born the later children have any greater expectation of life than the first. As we have already pointed out fecundity is correlated with longev- ity. Families limited by the early death of one or both parents would naturally show a high death rate on account of the prob- ability that the offspring would inherit a diminished vitality. On the other hand, large size of family very commonly has a very undesirable relation to infant mortality, despite the vitality of the stock from which large families come. This is due in part at least to economic causes and in part to the correlation between mental subnormality (this does not imply reduced physiological vigor) with a high birth rate. Where large families occur among intelligent and thrifty people as they did a century ago, there is much less correlation between size of family and a high early death rate. The following table from data collected by Dr. A. G. Bell is instructive in this connection: INFLUENCE OF ORDER OF BIRTH, ETC. 305 Relation of Duration of Life to Size of Family Number in family Total persons Percentage dying at age groups indicated Under 20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80+ i 4i 85 126 313 584 694 683 396 168 58-5 42.4 47 6 36.1 35 5 33-o 32-8 33-6 46.4 22 .O 24.7 23-8 25-5 24-5 25.2 22.2 21 .2 17-3 4-9 18.8 M-3 19.2 18.3 17.7 17.9 18.4 13-1 9-7 9-4 9-5 14.4 15-9 16.9 17-4 17.9 17.3 49 4-7 4.8 4-8 5-8 7-2 9-7 8.9 5-9 2. i and 2 3 and 4 5 and 6 7 and 8 9 and 10 ii and 12 13 and more 100.0% 2,964 35-2% 1,044 23-4% 693 17-7% 525 16.4% 486 7-3% 216 The table deals with 2,964 members of the Hyde family of America and is noteworthy in showing the high early death rate among families with but one child, and a gradual decrease of early death rate with increase of family up to families of eleven or more children. There is also a marked increase in the percent- age of offspring living to advanced ages (60+ and 80+) as the families become larger in size. The poor showing of the very- largest families may be due to causes which have been already discussed. Miss Elderton has remarked that the high death rate among the early born in families or twelve or more "largely disappears if we exclude mothers of bad habits." Data on the problem whether the first born are handicapped by the mere fact of their ordinal position in the family are very inadequate. Dr. Chase studied the physiques of 58 sets of broth- ers who entered Amherst College and found that the first born were strongest in four cases, the second born strongest in twelve cases, the third born strongest in twenty-eight cases. The students entered college at about the same age and were tested in the same way, but the small number of cases handled makes it unsafe to draw general conclusions. Pearson found that within 306 THE TREND OF THE RACE families of a given size the first and second born show as a rule a preponderating amount of albinism, criminality and tuberculosis. Mongolian idiocy was found to characterize in a rather striking manner the last born of the family. When we investigate the incidence of any quality in regard to order of birth in individual families we are not entirely free from statistical pitfalls, if we start with material segregated in institu- tions. If we take individuals of a certain age, say 20, which are confined in a sanitorium, then if the numbers of families are increasing in the population at large the individual will be more apt to be the eldest of a recent family than the younger member of an old family. This possible source of error was pointed out by Mr. Cobb who says: "It has hitherto been assumed that if a person of given age is selected at random from amongst fraternities of a given size then all positions in that fraternity are equally likely. But this is not the case. If the number of births has been increasing he is more likely to be one of the older members of his fraternity, and if the number hasbeen decreasing he is more likely to be a younger member. For while the number of births is increasing there are more children born every year who belong to the first half of their fraternities than who belong to the second half." In most countries there are more births per annum than previously and a steady increase in the number of families. But granting that this would give us an apparent increase of the first born of any particular age there is a compensating tendency brought about by the declining birth rate. Along with an in- creasing number of people there has been a reduction of the percentage of the later born owing to the increasing restriction of the size of the family. Consider a random group of 20 year old individuals from families of twelve members. Will not this be more apt to represent the last members of the old families than the first members of families that were started later. Suppose that of the families starting in 1825, one in ten contained a twelfth child, which lived for 60 years. Suppose also that of the families starting in 1875 only one in one hundred had a twelfth INFLUENCE OF ORDER OF BIRTH, ETC. 307 child that lived for 35 or more years. Now, suppose that in 1910 we select a group of individuals from the families of twelve in the population. It is obvious that our group would contain many more of the twelfth born from the old families than from the later ones. It is evident from these considerations that when we sim- plify the problem of handicapping the first born by considering the ordinal position of the marked member within families of a particular size, we do not avoid all statistical pitfalls. Our data collected by the methods generally employed would be affected by increase of population and decline of the birth rate, to say nothing of other possible factors. Mention may be made of one circumstance which might make a real difference between the first and subsequent members of a family, — and that is inherited syphilis. It is a well-known fact that the early born are most seriously injured by this disease. The not uncommon history of a syphilitic family is first the occurrence of one or more abortions, then the birth of weakly children and finally the production of children who are com- paratively healthy. The inclusion of any considerable number of such family histories would tend to cause the first born to occupy an unenviable position. Since syphilis predisposes the patient to tuberculosis there would tend to be an exaggeration of the latter disease and probably also insanity and other patho- logical defects among the early born. So far as pure heredity is concerned we should naturally expect the first born to have the same endowments as the sub- sequent members of the family. Primacy of birth as Auerbach remarks is "Rein vererbungstechnischer Begriff." Whatever effects may be due to maternal immaturity or the difficulties incident upon bearing the first child are to be regarded as somatic phenomena which there is no reason to believe produce any inherited effect. How long it takes for initial handicaps which are observed to preponderate in first born children to be out- grown, or whether they are ever outgrown, we are unable to decide. Those who occupy the position of first rank in their families 3o8 THE TREND OF THE RACE may take comfort in the fact that their claims to superiority are not without their champions. Indeed some of the papers of which Pearson is a joint author suggest that in some respects the first born may have an advantage over their successors. Beeton and Pearson in their investigation of the age at death of over i, ooo pairs of sisters and brothers found that the earlier born had on the average a longer life. The ages at death were as follows: Elder Younger Sisters 59-924 55-66; Brothers 58-56o 54-575 The study was based on the longevity of adults who have reached maturity, thus eliminating the effect of infant or child mortality. In a study of 1,051 pairs of brothers and 733 pairs of sisters where it was possible to ascertain the interval between the births it was found that the greater the interval the less is the expectation of life of the younger member of a pair. "A brother born ten years before another brother has probably seven years greater duration of life; a sister born ten years before another sister has about six years longer duration of life." This conclusion is not exactly opposed, however, to the doctrine of the inferiority of the first born, especially at birth. As only adults were considered in Beeton and Pearson's studies the earlier born had passed the first ordeals of life and their greater early death rate may have rendered them relatively more hardy than their less stringently selected younger siblings. In an article entitled "The Long-Lived First-Born" the editor of the Journal of Heredity presents a study of longevity accord- ing to birth rank of 802 individuals most of whom were over 90 and all of whom were over 80 years of age. A relatively large number, 217 out of 802, or 27.05 per cent of first born children live to be aged; a smaller percentage of aged occur in the second born, 118 out of 786, or 15.01 per cent and a still smaller percentage of aged occur in the third born, 104 out of 765, or 13.59 Per cent, the succeeding birth ranks showing only a slight further decrease. INFLUENCE OF ORDER OF BIRTH, ETC. 309 Of the aged individuals studied there were "some living and some dead." This is an unfortunate circumstance, since it tends to bring an undue relative proportion of the first born in the ad- vanced age group. It is fair to assume, since we have no informa- tion to the contrary, that some of the aged had younger siblings who might also have become aged and hence helped to swell the ranks of the later born offspring. Were all the children of the families given time to qualify for the advanced age group it is not at all evident that the first born would be represented in the highest percentage of cases. It is in the field of intellectual activity that the first born have most often been said to distinguish themselves. The claim is made that the first born are more variable than their successors, and while they produce a larger number of defectives and crimi- nals they also give rise to a larger number of men of genius. Gini has shown that the first born predominate among the professors in Italian universities. The matter was investigated by sending questionnaires to the professors; 445 replies were received of which 416 related to families of two or more. The distribution of the professors according to birth rank may be seen from the following table: Birth Rank of Italian Professors a No of Professors from b iooa Birth Rank Families of 2 or More Expected No. b i 141 87.4 161 2 82 87.4 QO 60. Q 8} 4... . 4C <4.2 c . . g 6-7 44 0 70 8-q. . 20 10.8 70 10+ 7 13 .4 416 415-7 /0. "*??. (Lu 3io It is not stated on what basis the expected numbers in the third column were calculated. Granted that these numbers are free from criticism the number of first born is strikingly larger than the expected proportion. Professor Gini is cautious about stating to what extent the superior attainments of the first born depend upon social considerations such as " the desire of parents to see their eldest child occupy a position that will reflect honor upon the family," and various other factors that are in no way related to biological influences. Galton in his studies of British men of science found 26 eldest sons, 15 youngest sons and 36 of intermediate position. Similar findings for 50 eminent men are reported by Yoder. Havelock Ellis in his study of the birth order of British men of genius gives the following table showing the position of the genius in the family: Ordinal Rank of Men of Genius in the Family Size of Family Eldest Intermediate Youngest 2 i< o 12 •j 1C 6 ii 4. . 10 16 3 (. t . IO 18 7 6 8 20 6 7 . . ic 14 < 8 2 17 4 o.. . 8 7 4 10 < IO 3 ii •3. 12 2 12 I IO 2 13.. . I 4 2 Id.. O c 2 Over 14 I o 4 Here again the honors fall predominantly to the first member of the family, but whether the reasons are mainly biological or social remains in doubt.1 1 Confirmatory results are yielded by Cattell's studies of the birth ranks of INFLUENCE OF ORDER OF BIRTH, ETC. 311 Closely associated with the effect of order of birth upon off- spring is the problem of the influence of parental age. This topic has received more or less attention from the time of Aristotle to the present. Various opinions have been put forth with a degree of confidence which is often in inverse proportions to the ade- quacy of the evidence upon which they were based. The subject is more difficult than appears upon the surface, and, like the one that has just been discussed, presents many pitfalls. Without troubling ourselves with theories which are unsupported by statistical data let us consider some of the more important contributions to the solution of our problem. With the increasing age of parents there is apparently an increased percentage of abortions and stillbirths 11 we except the offspring of .very young mothers. Data from Paris and Buda- Pest are given in the following table from Prof. Gini: Relations of Age of Parents to Percentage of Abortions and Stillbirths Age of Mother Paris, 1903-1009 Biida-Pest, 1903-1904 Legitimate Illegitimate Legitimate Illegitimate Miscar- riages Stffl- births Miscar- riages Still- births Miscar- riages Still- births Miscar- riages Still- births i?— 20. . 5-03 4.68 S-46 6. 15 7-39 6.65 11.77 1.72 2-37 2.62 3-Si 4-33 6.07 6.67 5-i4 6.21 7-05 8.23 6.83 9.21 8.76 2.41 2.88 3-68 3-80} 4-I4J 5.07} 9-49 J 6.25 8.05 ii .42 14.09 17.49 1.61 i .90 2.61 3-45 5-39 6-39 11.03 10.98 9.62 8.20 3-n 3-73 4-37 4-95 6.6r 20-24 2S— 2Q. . 30-34. . 3C-JQ. . 40—44. . 45 or over Here it is shown that with the exception of some irregularities in the first horizontal column giving the percentage of miscar- riages and stillbirths of mothers below 20 years of age, there is a general increase in the percentage of both miscarriages and stillbirths as the age of the mother increases. Both kinds of American men of science (Sci., Mar. 5, 1917), and by the (as yet unpublished) researches of two of my students. 312 THE TREND OF THE RACE mortality are higher for illegitimate than they are for legitimate births. More extensive data on the proportion of stillbirths per hundred births are afforded by the next table: Mortality of Infants According to Age of Mother Age of Mother Austria Norway France Legitimate Illegitimate Legitimate Illegitimate Under 17 2.1 i-7 1.9 2.2 2.8 3-9 4.0 3-o 34 3-9 4- 4- 2 ? 2.09 1.66 2-39 4-17 4-52 2.97 4.86 10. 14 6.9 4-7 4-2 4-2 4-3 6.9 6.6 17-20 20— 2^.. . 25-30 35-4° | 40-45J 45-50 1 50+ J Statistics from other localities show much the same trend as those which have been presented. That stillbirths increase in frequency as the fathers become older may be due not to the age of the father but to the fact that the mothers' ages are corre- lated with those of their husbands. Where the age of the mother is eliminated the offspring of old fathers do not have a much higher ratio of stillborn than those of younger men. There is also an increase of deliveries requiring surgical help as the mothers become older, exception being made again of first births. The effect of the order of birth is here a complicating factor. First births, irrespective of parental age, show a large percent- age of fatalities. This fact accounts for most of the high mor- tality among the children of very young mothers. The following table from Professor Gini is instructive in showing how the percentage of stillbirths is affected by eliminating the effects of order of birth: INFLUENCE OF ORDER OF BIRTH, ETC. 313 Table Showing the Influence of the Age of the Mother on Birth Mortality, Eliminating and not Eliminating the Effect of Order of Birth Age of Mother Saxe-Meinungen (1878-89) Taking birth mortality when mother is 35-49 at 100, birth mortality at other ages is & Luxemburg (1901-03) Taking birth mortality when mother is 35 and up at 100 birth mortality at other ages is Berlin (1893-97) Taking birth mortality for all births at 100, the birth mortality according to the age of the mother is Not eliminating order of birth Eliminating order of birth Not eliminating order of birth Eliminating order of birth Not eliminating order of birth Eliminating order of birth 66 68 68 80 100 210 32 42 54 77 IOO ng 60 50 54 69 88 [123 \ liSO 42 38 44 63 87 127 157 57 73 83 97 120 157 227 61 80 94 102 114 128 165 40-4S 45 and | • • • upwards J When the effect of order of birth is eliminated there remains a very considerable correlation between the age of the mother and the percentage of stillbirths. On the other hand, when the influence of maternal age is eliminated there is after the first birth little relationship between birth order and ante-natal mortality. There is no reason to suppose that these effects of age depend upon influences which may be properly described as hereditary. They may be expressive of changes in the maternal organization rather than any primary differences among the offspring. The same may be said for the relation between age of parents and height and weight of their children. The younger mothers tend to bear the smallest children. When we deal with large numbers of cases it is found that there is a slight increase of height and weight as the age of mothers increases. A part of this is due to the very evident increase of giant births (over 4000 gr.) with increasing age of the mothers. (See Prinzing, Med. Statistik, p. 52.) As Gini has shown, the apparent influence of age on the size of offspring is really due mostly to order of birth. "The age of the mother," he says, "has no decisive influence of its own on the dimensions of the foetus; the increase which is found in these 314 THE TREND OF THE RACE dimensions is simply due to the fact that the greater the age of the mother the greater is the number of previous deliveries, and it follows that if the women married as soon as they were capable of bearing children we should expect, with a rise in the fertility, an increase in these dimensions in the foetuses." (Problems in Eugenics, II, 117-18.) With advancing age of parents there is in general a higher death rate of children in the first year of life. There is, however, a preliminary descent from the earlier ages due probably to the high death rate of the first born. The statistics studied by Ewart show that the infant mortality falls "until the twenty- fourth year is reached and then slowly rises again," reaching its maximum in mothers of over 40 years of age. This is indi- cated in the following table: Infant Mortality According to Maternal Age Age of Mother No. of Births Deaths in ist Year Per 1,000 Births Under 19 isa 26 171 20—24 Inc 6 66 132 25-29 " 396 316 66 74 1 66 170 2C-2Q " . I CQ •24 220 Over 40 Inc. . . . 36 12 33° After the initial fall the rise in the infant death rate with in- creasing years of the parents is very striking. Data from New South Wales from 1893 to 1900 dealing with 277,799 confinements show a similar fall to the 2oth year of the mother's life, and a gradual rise with later years, the infant mortality of mothers above 40 being over four times as heavy as in mothers of 20. When first births alone are tabulated there is a similar fall until the 2oth year is reached, after which there is a rise, as is indi- cated by the following table based on 56,247 first births: INFLUENCE OF ORDER OF BIRTH, ETC. 315 Mortality of First Births According to Age of Mother (Gini) Taking Mortality from 19-21 Years as 100, the Age of Mother Mortality of the Respective Ages Becomes 19 or less 118 20 80 21-22 no 23-24 120 25-26 125 27-28 141 29-34 228 35-39 209 40+ 480 It appears to be evident that when we make allowance for the unusual difficulties of the first birth, the increase of infant mor- tality as the age of the mothers increases is due mainly to ma- ternal age and not to the birth rank of the children. Birth rank per se after the first one or two births has little apparent relation to infant mortality. It is contended that parental age is related not merely to infant mortality, but to mortality of later ages as well. Gini states on the basis of returns from Budapest (1903-08) that the percentage of children who die before the death of one of the par- ents diminishes with the rise of age at marriage of the father and increases with the rise of age at marriage of the mother when it is more than 20 years. Data from New South Wales also indicate that women who marry later, despite the shorter duration of their marriage and their diminished expectation of life, actually witness the death of more of their children than do women who marry younger. As a very large part of the greater mortality of the children of late married mothers is due to infant mortality it is doubtful how much the later life of the children is really affected. Ewart gives some statistics of the relation between age of the mother and the height and weight of children when they have reached six years of age. The six year old children of very young 3i6 THE TREND OF THE RACE mothers (20 or less) are shorter and lighter than the children of mothers a few years older. In mothers over 25 the height and weight of children diminished with advancing 'age. A somewhat similar relationship is seen in children at 13.5 years. The data of Professor Ewart, since they deal with only a few hundred cases of mixed stocks, are entirely inadequate to solve the problem of how age of parents affects the offspring in later years. In such an investigation there are several sources of fallacious conclusions. Consider for instance the presence of a number of Italians in the population studied. The Italians are characterized by short stature and they are prone to marry early. The children of young mothers would be apt to include a relatively large propor- tion of Italian stock. Now if we compare the height of these children in later life with the average height of children of older parents we might be misled into attributing to parental age a characteristic really dependent upon race. Children of older parents are, other things equal, members of larger families than children of young parents. Large families tend to characterize stocks in the lower walks of life in which the surroundings are less hygienic and in which conditions for growth are less favorable than among people with small families. By taking a random lot of children begotten by old parents we should get a proportion- ately large number of children from large families, especially since the relatively recent reduction of the birth rate has occurred mainly through preventing the arrival of those who would be later born children. Selecting the children of old parents, therefore, incidentally involves also a selection of stocks and to a certain degree also a selection of environments. These sources of erro- neous interpretation of statistics, — to say nothing of others— must be borne in mind in the study of our problem. Mr. Redfield has reported investigations on the influences of parental age on longevity of offspring which led him to con- clude that children begotten when their parents are old live longer, on the average, than children who are the product of their parents' earlier years. He has calculated the length of life of all the great men of whom he could obtain a record of the birth INFLUENCE OF ORDER OF BIRTH, ETC. 317 ranks, and finds that the sons of old fathers live longer than the sons of young fathers. He also studied the longevity of 1,104 persons from families of four or more children who lived to adult life. From these persons "among whom those having high birth ranks were brothers and sisters of those having low birth ranks, it was found that there was a very uniform increase in length of life as birth ranks grew higher," an addition of four years to the age of the father added one year to the life of the child. In regard to the parentage of great men, Redfield remarks: "It may be argued that the sons of old men are necessarily the sons of long lived parents, while the sons of young men are the sons of both long lived and short lived parents, and consequently cannot be expected to live so long on ari average." This objec- tion, while sounding reasonable, Redfield attempts to show is fallacious. In order to do so he selected from the Redfield gene- alogy "every family which had four or more sons who reached maturity and who did not lose their lives because of war or accident." The average life of the different sons is indicated as follows: Eldest Son 2nd Son yrd Son 4th Son Years 60.85 69.14 69.85 71.14 "There can be no selection in this case," says Redfield, " because the different sons of the family are sons of identical parents, and not sons of different or selected parents." Despite the plausibility of his contention I cannot feel sure that Redfield has succeeded in avoiding our deceptive enemy, the statistical fallacy. If he has averaged together the ages of sons belonging to fathers of certain age groups without regard to date of marriage or other circumstances, he may have obtained quite misleading results. Young parents marry early and older parents as a class must contain many who married late and whose four children, therefore, belong to the later part of their reproductive period. It is possible to have a number of families in each of which the age of successively born children regularly diminishes and yet when the ages of the children are averaged together there 3i8 THE TREND OF THE RACE would be a regular average increase of age according to the order of their birth. Let us consider families of four children the fathers marrying at the ages of 20, 25, 30, and 35. Suppose these fathers, by virtue of differences in inherited vitality, live to the ages of 40, 45, 50, and 55 years, respectively. Suppose also that at intervals of five years each father has a son who lived to be several years older than himself. We may represent the ages of the four fathers A, B, C, and D at the time of the birth of their sons in the upper horizontal column and the ages of the sons begotten at these respective ages immediately below. Age of son B -j 40 39 38 37 40 Age of son C 45 44 43 7C 42 4O 4< Age of son D 50 49 48 47 40 4? CO Age of son 55 54 53 52 Averages of sons 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 In the cases of these four families thus arbitrarily chosen the sons in each family have a diminished duration of life as the age of their fathers increases, but their average ages give an entirely misleading indication of the relation of parental age to longevity of offspring. In our table the older fathers produce the older sons, but the influence of age per se is to reduce the son's expectation of life. Of course, the supposition we have made is very artificial and arbitrary, but it will make it clear, I think, that the data which Redfield presents do not necessarily prove his case, or obviate the objection which he admits might plausibly be urged against his conclusions. The arbitrary assumption may be not far from the truth, however, since stocks which marry early, such as unskilled laborers, do not have as great longevity as stocks which, like the professional classes, marry late in life.1 The chief thesis of Redfield's book on The Control of Heredity 1 And it must not be forgotten that the decline in the general rate of mortality tends to give the later born members of a family a greater expectation of life. INFLUENCE OF ORDER OF BIRTH, ETC. 319 is that able sons are predominantly the off spring of fathers who were old at the time of their son's birth or else that the more recent ancestors of the able sons were of advanced age. This general principle, according to Redfield, can only be accounted for on the ground that children inherit the mental power which their parents have acquired. Since older parents have reached a higher degree of intellectual development than younger parents their children, it is held, will consequently tend to be of superior mental ability. To breed a race of high intellectual power early marriages should be discouraged and children should be pro- created by parents who have attained their best physical and mental development. "Children of young parents," we are told, "are lacking in physical stamina and mental power. They are reckless, careless, sometimes vicious and frequently drift into drunkenness and crime. From this class comes the principal part of our criminals, paupers and prostitutes." It is quite evidently an exaggeration to say that the principal part of our criminals, paupers and prostitutes come from youth- ful parents. People who furnish our supply of these undesirables tend to reproduce early it is true; they also tend to keep on reproducing after the people of superior status have begun to limit their families. There is no adequate reason for concluding that youth of parents per se is responsible for the degenerate heredity of the offspring. These people marry early or reproduce young because they are of poor stock; they are not necessarily of poor stock because they marry young. We may make a parallel statement in regard to the parents of superior men. Redfield tells us that men of ability come from parents who are above the age of the parents of the rank and file of humanity. This is to a considerable extent true of the age at marriage of stocks from which great men are apt to arise. As a glance through such works as Galton's Hereditary Genius, Ellis' Study of British Genius, Galton and Schuster's Noteworthy Families, or Cattell's articles on the Families of American Men of Science 1 will show, the parents of distinguished men belong 1 Sci. Mon, 4 and 5, 1917. 320 THE TREND OF THE RACE to a class who marry comparatively late. It does not follow that men attain unusual ability because their parents were relatively mature at the time these men were born. The correlation between ability and parental age is probably due mainly to the later mar- riages of stocks of superior hereditary ability. Naturally if ability is a product of parental age we should expect that the later born members of a family would most fre- quently become distinguished. It is not difficult to amass a con- siderable number of cases in which this is true. The evidence compiled by Redfield, however, may be offset by the data gath- ered by Ellis in the Study of British Genius to which reference has already been made. The relation of frequency of genius to parental age is given by Ellis as follows: Genius and Parental Age. Age of Father Under 20 2O-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60 and over No. of fathers. . . Percentage 2 6 9 3 45 15 81 27 59 19 44 14 30 10 13 4 8 2 8 2 The ages of the fathers of 100 cases of Gal ton's British men of science were as follows: Age of father. Number. . 20- i 25- 15 34 35- 22 40- 17 45- 7 The average ages of Galton's, Ellis' and Yoder's list of fathers (the latter based on 39 cases) were 36, 37.1, and 37.78 years respectively. These differ but little from the averages of fathers of men of professional and allied classes given by Ansell in 1874, viz., 36.5. Geniuses are evidently not the product of senility to any very considerable degree. Within the several families, so far as our rather incomplete statistics go, actually more of them fall into the ranks of the ist born (and hence the production of the earlier years of the father's life) than in any subsequent birth rank. Mention may be made of the studies of Professor A. Marro INFLUENCE OF ORDER OF BIRTH, ETC. 321 which have often been quoted in discussions of this subject. Among the parents of 456 criminals it was found that both young and old parents produced more criminals than were born from people of maturity (20-40 years). Thieves predominate among the children of young parents while swindlers and those guilty of crimes of violence were more common among the children of parents of over 40 years. Studies of the intelligence of 917 school children in relation to the age of their fathers gave a high percentage with good intelligence from fathers below 25 years. The children of young mothers (21 years or less) were found to produce about as high percentage of intelligent pupils as the children of young fathers. The very superior children, however, were somewhat more frequently born of parents of mature age. Children of old parents made in general the poorest showing. However, the children of old fathers made the best record in respect to conduct at school, but curiously enough the children of older mothers were the worst of all. It is noteworthy that the relation between intelligence of offspring and age of parents is just the reverse of what it is claimed by Redfield, and the relation of crime to parental age seems to be at variance with the findings of Goring who found that criminals were especially frequent among the first born. There is so much opportunity for social factors to affect such results as were found by Marro that any real biological influence of parental age is not apparent. Grouping of parents into young and old necessarily involves to a certain degree a selection of stock. This circumstance together with the environmental factors which are also more or less different for the children of old and young parents may influence to a considerable degree the intelligence and conduct of school children and even proclivities to crime in later years. Undue frequency of births is undoubtedly correlated with the high early death rate of children. Data compiled by Ansell from well-to-do English families showed that where the interval between births was less than a year the infant mortality was nearly twice as great as when the interval was between one and 322 THE TREND OF THE RACE two years, and over twice as great when the interval was over two years. There was also a slightly greater death rate between the first and fifth years when the intervals between births were short, but the differences were slight. Ewart has adduced data to show that frequent births handicap offspring both physically and intellectually even at six years of age. The initial inferiority of children resulting from too frequent births is probably due in large part to the reduced vitality of the mother. The rela- tively poorer intellectual development which has been noted (and our data on this score are hardly sufficient to warrant a general conclusion) may be due largely to the selection of stocks. The people who exercise no control over the rapidity of their multiplication are not apt to produce children who excel in tests of intellectual development. It is uncertain that any of the agencies considered in the present rather unsatisfactory chapter cause any changes that may prop- erly be called hereditary. They may influence offspring, possibly throughout life, but it is probable that their effects are mostly purely somatic. It is possible that parental age, for instance, might influence selective fertilization, or the selective elimination of embryos. Since an old body affords an environment for the germ plasm different in many ways from that afforded by a young body, it is not improbable that this circumstance might be re- flected in the trend of germinal variability. It might be con- jectured that whatever causes the vitality of our bodies to run down with advancing years might also affect the germ plasm in a deleterious manner. 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A First Study of the Statistics of Pulmonary Tuberculosis. Studies in Nat. Deterioration, 2, 1910. Ploetz, A. Zusammenhang der Sterblichkeit der Kinder mit dem Lebensalter der Eltern, etc., Arch. Rass. Ges. Biol. 8, 761-63 ,1911. See 1. c. 6, 33-43, 1909. Popenoe, P. The Long Lived First-Bom. Jour. Heredity, 7, 395-398, 1916. 324 THE TREND OF THE RACE Redfield, C. L. The Control of Heredity. Monarch Book Co., Chicago and Phil- adelphia, 1903; Dynamic Evolution, Putnam's Sons, N. Y., 1914. ReV6sz, B. Der Einfluss des Alters der Matter auf die Korperhohe. Arch. f. Anthrop. 32, 160-167, 1906. Rivers, W. C. Primogeniture and Abnormality: A Possible Fallacy. Eugen. Rev. 6, 58-61, 1914. Strahan, S. A. K. Marriage and Disease, Appleton and Co., N. Y., 1892. Seigert, F. Der Mongolismus. Ergeb. neuren Med. u. Kinderheilkunde, 6, 565- 600, 1911. Vaerting, M. Das giinstigste Zeugungsalter fur die geistige Fahigkeit der Nachkom- men., C. Kabitsch, Wiirzburg, 1913, pp. 63. See alsoNeue Generation, 1914 and 1916. Velden, F. von den. Der Einfluss des Heiratsalters auf die Beschaffenheit der Nachkommenschaft. Polit.-Anthrop. Rev. 8, 1908; Die Minderwertigkeit der Erstgebornen. Arch. Rass. Ges. Biol. 5, 526-530, 1908; Allerlei Fragen der menschlichen Fortpflanzungshygiene; Einfluss von Geburtenzwischenraum Unehelichkeit und Spaterzeugung auf die Konstitutionskraft der Kinder. Arch. Rass. Ges. Biol. 7, 57-64, 1910. Weinberg, W. Zur Frage der Minderwertigkert der Erstgeborenen. Med. Reform, 1 8, Nr. 23; Kurtzsichtigkeit und Erstgeburt. Arch. Rass. Ges. Biol. 10, 326- 327, IQI3- Westergaard, H. Die Lehre von der Mortalitat und Morbiditat. Fischer, Jena, 1901. CHAPTER XIV THE RACIAL INFLUENCE OF INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT. " A few good and healthy men, rather than a multitude of diseased rogues; and a little real milk and wine rather than much chalk and petroleum; but the gist of the whole business is, that the men, and their property, must both be produced together — not one to the loss of the other. Property must not be created in lands desolate by exile of their people, — nor multiplied and depraved humanity, in lands barren of bread." — Ruskin, The Queen of the Air. IT is obvious that many of the most potent of the factors which influence the inherited qualities of man are the result of the great industrial development which has taken place during the past century. To give an adequate account of the complex and indirect ways in which the growth of modern industry has affected the development of the race is at present an impossible task. Even most of the simpler problems cannot be solved with the data at present available, and where the immediate result of certain forces seems fairly obvious there are commonly secondary and more indirect effects to be considered which stand in various relations with, and sometimes in direct antagonism to, the primary ones. The magnitude and rapidity of the changes which industrial development has effected in the institutions of mankind tend to divert attention from the more obscure biological problems with which they are associated. It will perhaps be useful to formulate some of these problems, although we may not be able to contrib- ute much to their solution. Among the more immediate effects of industrial development are (i) the increase of population in many countries which has been rendered possible by the creation of additional occupations and the expansion of trade; (2) the growth and multiplication of 325 326 THE TREND OF THE RACE industries which greatly affect the differential death rate of relatively large numbers of the population; (3) the growth of cities with the resulting subjection of their inhabitants to a changed and often deleterious environment and mode of life; (4) the effect of economic factors on the marriage and birth rates of different stocks; and (5) the possible influence of altered environmental factors on the trend of germinal variability. We shall consider briefly these different topics, although it should be borne in mind that they are closely interrelated. The striking increase of the populations of civilized countries during the igth century is in large part due to the application of science to industry which has increased enormously the wealth with which nature has been compelled to reward the labors of man. To a large extent also this increase of population has resulted from the reduction of the death rate which has followed the advances made in medicine, surgery, and especially those branches of hygiene which are concerned with the control of infections and epidemics. But whatever progress is made in the art of saving life, the population of a country must obviously be limited by the resources furnished by nature for human subsist- ence. The yield of nature has been greatly increased by the application of scientific discovery. Improvements in mining, manufacturing, agriculture and transportation make it possible for the earth to support a greatly increased number of inhabi- tants, and human population even now comes sufficiently'near obeying the law of Malthus to respond to the opportunities thus created for its maintenance. Through the increase of numbers which industrial development has made possible those races and peoples among whom such development has reached a higher stage are enabled, by war or otherwise, to prevail over races and peoples on a lower industrial level. The Anglo-Saxon has doubtless been aided in extending his domain on account of the very rapid growth of the population of Great Britain which followed upon the unprecedented develop- ment of her industries. The great economic development of Germany, by creating opportunities for her people at home and INFLUENCE OF INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT 327 thereby checking her losses to other lands through emigration, has constituted a great element of strength to the empire, that might have resulted in an accelerated expansion of her dominion and a further increase of her population had the outcome of the war been more in accordance with her plans. Such effects of in- dustrial development are the first results which follow upon the natural response of life to an increased means of support. But while increased production of wealth allows more individuals to gain a subsistence and may lead to national expansion, it sets into operation several influences which may deteriorate the quality of the expanding people. At the same time other tendencies are brought into play whose effect on the people is in the direction of racial improvement. One complex set of factors may be grouped under the general heading of occupational selection, or the differential death rate among the employees of various industries. It is well known that the average expectation of life varies greatly among those engaged in different occupations. A considerable mass of data on this subject has been compiled in the census reports of several coun- tries and by life insurance companies. The racial effects of occupational selection depend upon what relations exist between innate qualities and the choice of means of livelihood. Were those who follow different trades and professions recruited indifferently from all types it would be of no racial significance how rates of mortality are distributed. But people not only select occupa- tions, but occupations select people. Different occupations demand various degrees of intelligence, reliability and diligence, to say nothing of different physical qualities, such as strength, endurance and quickness. There is no likelihood that a born dullard will become a captain of industry and a weakling by nature is not apt to qualify as a stevedore or structural iron worker. To a considerable extent the choice of an occupation is a fortuitous matter, depending upon tradition, education and the kinds of industry represented in a given time and place. Occupa- tions are frequently changed, especially those requiring little skill and training. But notwithstanding a large element of purely 328 THE TREND OF THE RACE fortuitous circumstance, there is doubtless a certain correlation between the kind of employment followed and inborn quality. As a result of the nature and diversity of industry, human beings are forced into lines of activity which very materially shorten life or cause a high percentage of accidental deaths. The differential death rate associated with various occupations is therefore a matter affecting the character of our racial inheritance. The racial effects of occupational mortality vary greatly from industry to industry. In many cases the result is doubtless dysgenic. Dangerous trades which draw workmen of skill and capacity are racially bad. The high mortality among locomotive firemen, iron workers, glass blowers, workers in porcelain, lead and copper represents a loss of an inheritance of at least good average quality. Occupations which draw and exterminate the more incompetent types may on the other hand be regarded as a racial benefit. Statistics on the average expectation of life of the followers of different trades and professions cannot always be accepted as an index of the relative healthfulness of the occupation in question. Those pursuits which are entered upon relatively late in life, such as the learned professions, tend to show an increased expectation of life because cases of death before the professional career is begun are not included. The average duration of life among casual laborers is decreased by the occurrence of many deaths in the ages below 20 years, but this would not be the case among clergymen or physicians. An index of occupational mortality which is better than the average age of death is afforded by the mortality at various ages of life. The actual death rate among the followers of any occupation is a result of two sets of factors: (i) Those concerned with the occupation itself, and (2) those depending upon the kind of human material the occupation selects. Of the first, the whole- someness of the occupation itself is of prime importance. Many trades cause a slow poisoning of those engaged in them. The disastrous results that follow work in lead industries have already been commented on. Phosphorus poisoning is not uncommon INFLUENCE OF INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT 329 Mean Annual Death Rates per 1,000 Males of Different Occupations in England and Wales, 1900-02 Age Groups Occupations 25-35 35-45 45-65 Clergymen 2.72 4.00 ic. 53 Physicians 5-58 io.<;6 , 23-87 Schoolmasters 3 .64 5-54 15.76 Farm laborers 4- 34 6.36 Innkeepers 13.87 22. 745,6Q7 8,571,364 880,613 1,144,997 1,669,315 661,182 82,078 1,458,775 1,049,390 1,233,804 169,469 130,714 49,348,883 3,77o,i89 3,220,477 340,670 207,254 832,018 589,551 35,340 273,687 293,735 436,778 5i,477 60,770 46.3 72.1 72.7 72.1 84.7 66.7 52.9 69.9 84.2 78.1 73-9 76.7 68.3 53-7 27.9 27-3 27.9 15-3 33-3 47-i 30.1 15-8 21.9 26.1 23-3 3-i7 Total foreign born European Great Britain Ireland Germany.. Scandinavia . . France Russia and Finland. . Italy.. . Austria and Hungary Balkans. .... Asia. It is evident from the above table that the natives of Russia and southern Europe flock into our cities in greatest relative numbers, while the northern European stocks with the notable exception of the Irish and to a less extent the natives of Great Britain tend to settle more frequently in the country. According INFLUENCE OF INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT 335 to the Census Report for 1910, "The only countries whose natives show a lower proportion residing in urban communities in 1910 than is shown for the white population of the U. S. (44.2 per cent) are Norway, Montenegro, and Mexico, and of these Mexico is the only one for which the percentage (34.2) was lower than that for the native whites of native parents (36.1 per cent)." The general city-ward migration of the population has had a marked influence on the negro population of the nation, a fact of no small consequence for the biological fortunes of that race. In the decades ending in 1890, 1900 and 1910 the percentage of negroes living in cities of 2,500 or over was 19.8, 22.7 and 27.4, respectively. In the Southern States the negro population, like the white, is largely rural (over 75 per cent), but it is becoming gradually urbanized like the white race and at about the same rate. In the north, however, the negro becomes decidedly urban. In the New England States in 1910, 91.8 per cent of the negroes lived in cities; in the Middle Atlantic States the urban percentage was 81.2 per cent, in the Atlantic East North Central States 76.7 per cent, in the West North Central 97.7 per cent. New York with its 91,709 negroes and Washington with its 94,446 are the two largest negro cities in the U. S. Next in order come New Orleans (89,262), Philadelphia (84,459), Baltimore (84,749), Memphis (52,441), Atlanta (51,902), Richmond (46,733), Chicago (44,103), St. Louis (43,690), Nashville (36,523). In the cities of the north, as a rule, the negro population has increased at a greater rate relatively to the number of negroes 30 years ago, than in the south, due largely to the fact that before and during the war the negro population was largely confined to the south. It is noteworthy, however, that in some of the colder cities such as St. Paul, Minneapolis and Milwaukee the negro population remains very small, less than 2 per cent. How do cities affect those who dwell in them? The general effect of city life in the past, and to a considerable extent up to the present, has proven to be deleterious to a large part of their inhabitants. As destroyers of humanity they have ranked among the most potent. "Anthropologically," says Nordau, "the large 336 THE TREND OF THE RACE town is ruinous. The large town is a far shining light house whose lamp consumes a mighty deal of fuel." In cities humanity is exposed to unnatural conditions of life. Frequently inhabitants are crowded together, with an inadequate supply of fresh air, exposed to increased risks of contagion and inducted into habits of vice that deteriorate their posterity as well as themselves. The effect of these untoward agencies is reflected in the rate of mor- tality which is generally higher in urban than in rural commu- nities. We cannot, however, in all cases accept the mortality rate of cities as a reliable index of their healthfulness. As a measure of the actual influence of the city upon the duration of life it may be too high or too low. The presence of hospitals and asylums, orphanages and homes for the aged occasion a rise in the general death rate. On the other hand, barracks and institutions of learning, which contain many people at an age when the death rate is low, tend to produce an unduly favorable impression of the general salubrity of the city in which they occur. The same influence is exerted by the various industries which create a demand for the employment of men and women in the prime of life. On the whole, the death rate in cities tends to be abnormally low, because there are, as a rule, relatively more people of adoles- cent or middle age than in the country. The presence of many children of an early age naturally raises the general death rate, and where the birth rate has declined, as it has done to so great an extent in many cities, the general death rate becomes corre- spondingly reduced. A city may for various reasons have a very low death rate and nevertheless be a very unwholesome place in which to live. Notwithstanding the causes which tend to reduce the rates of urban mortality as they are commonly expressed, the death rates of cities generally have been, and in some countries still are, greater than that of adjacent rural communities. This is shown for the United States in the following table giving the death rates of urban and rural communities in the registration area: INFLUENCE OF INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT 337 Death Rates of Urban and Rural Communities in the United States Date 1900 Rural 15.2 Urban 18.9 Date 1912 Rural 12.5 Urban 14.7 As a rule the larger the city the higher has been the death rate. In the United States, according to the nth census, the death rates of cities of different sizes were as follows: 1905 14.4 17.1 1913 12.7 15.0 1906 13-7 17.4 1914 12.3 14.5 1907 14.0 17-5 1915 12.3 14.2 1908 13-3 15-9 1916 12. 9 15.0 1909 1910 1911 13.0 13.4 12.7 15.4 15.9 15.1 1901-05 1906-10 14.1 13.4 17.4 16.3 Death Rates According to Size of Cities Size of City Death Rate per 1,000 Population per A ere 10,000—15,000 17.86 2 .4.3 1^,000— 2^,000. . 10.41; 2.70 2^,000-^0,000. . 21. 8l 4.67 50,000—100,000 22.43 O.O4 Over 100,000 23.28 is. is Similar relations are shown in the towns of New England. Death rate of New England Towns _. . Ratios to the New England L>1'stnct rate taken as 100 Rural 94 Cities of 10-25,000 95 " " 25-50,000 105 " " 20-100,000 110 " " 100,000 1 16 The relatively rapid fall of urban death rates as compared with the rural is illustrated by the following table: 338 THE TREND OF THE RACE Death Rates of the City and State of New York Date Deaths in City Rate Rate per Rest of State 1898-1900 67,qi6 20. i < ic. 2C IQOI— IQOQ. . 71,684 18.6 IC.l 1906—1910 7 5,868 16.8 IS. 8 IQII— IQIC. . . 74,668 14.4 ic. 6 IQI4. . 74,8O3 14.0 ic. 4 IQI1?. . 76,IQ3 It .O 1C. 2 1016. . 77,8OO 13 .0 ic. 7 Part of this decline in New York City, says the Report of the New York Department of Health for 1919, "should be attributed to the migration from other communities and immigration from foreign countries, of large numbers of young adults who increased the population, but being in the healthiest age of life, contributed a smaller number of deaths than their proportion to the total population. When corrections are made for age composition, however, the advantage turns in favor of the country." Crude and Standardized Death Rates in New York State and City Crude Death Rate for IQII State of N. Y 15.6 City of N. Y 15.3 Rest of State. . 16 Standardized Rate 15-8 17-3 14.1 And in 1915, according to the report quoted; "the essentially greater healthfulness of the smaller communities and the rural districts of the state compared with the metropolis — hitherto obscured by the difference in the age make-up of their population '—stands out in a standardized rate of mortality for 1915 for the state outside of New York City of 13.4 still two points, or 13 per cent below that of the metropolis." In Europe urban growth and migration have been studied more INFLUENCE OF INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT 339 extensively and intensively than in the United States, and a vast literature has been accumulated on these subjects. Up to the last quarter century the urban death rates generally exceeded the rural, but more recently, however, the death rate in cities has decreased more rapidly than in the country, so that in several countries the urban rate has become the lower of the two. This fact may be illustrated by the following table showing the decline of the death rate in some of the principal cities and countries of Europe: Decline of Urban and Rural Death Rates in Europe 1881-85 1886-90 1891-95 1896-00 I90I-O5 1906-09 I9IO London 20 . 9 19.7 18.9 23.0 22.0 25-1 30-8 29.6 32.1 22.4 28.3 28.8 24.4 18.8 18.7 21 .2 22-3 24.1 25 -5 27.1 3i-8 20.5 25.8 27-4 23-3 18.5 17.7 19.2 20.7 21 .1 21.6 24.4 27.9 18.1 23-9 25.0 21.2 16.1 16.0 18.0 19.6 19.1 19.8 22.6 26.2 17-0 21. 0 23-7 19.9 14.4 14-7 17.7 19.2 17-3 19.4 19.6 25.O 15-4 17.9 21. 1 17-5 13-7 I3-S l6-7 17.9 16.6 18.4 iS-5 14-7 iS-i 19.9 16.2 England and Wales 19 .4 Paris 24 . 4 France 22.2 Vienna 28 . 2 Budapest 31 • 5 Prague 32.7 Hungary . . . 3 3 . i Berlin 26 . 5 Munich 30 . 4 Breslau 31 • 3 Germany 25 . 3 In the German Empire the death rates for cities of over 15,000 or more inhabitants have averaged lower than for the rural dis- tricts since the seventies, although in Prussia the cities did not take the lead until the nineties. Death Rates of City and Country in Germany 1877-81 1882-86 1887-91 1892-96 I897-OI In cities over 15,000 2? .71 25.83 23 .46 21 .71 20.46 In empire 27.5 27.3 25. 2 24.0 22.4 340 THE TREND OF THE RACE In Italy the death rates of the four largest cities fall below that of the Kingdom. The death rates of Rotterdam, Amsterdam and The Hague average lower than that of Holland, and those of Petrograd and Moscow lower than that of Russia in general. The favorable showing made by European cities in comparison with the country is, however, deceptive. While the reduction of the death rate in cities, is mainly due to improved hygiene and sanitation and while cities often afford advantages in the form of superior education and better medical aid that tend to reduce the death rate more than in the country, their relatively lower death rate is largely the result of their different age composition. Tak- ing the large cities of Germany as an example, the age composi- tion as compared with the rest of the empire was in 1900, accord- ing to Bailed, as follows: Age Composition of Cities and Country in Germany No. per 7,000 Inhabitants Under 16 yrs. 16-30 30-50 50-70 over 70 yrs. In large cities.. 3cx •?oi 264 III 19 In rest of Empire .... 380 2^4 226 131 29 The relatively small number of children and old people in cities, and the large proportion of people in the most healthful period of life naturally tend to lower the death rate relatively more than in the country. That the favorable showing of cities is largely due to their age composition is shown by the fact that when we consider the average mortality of the corresponding ages of life in urban and rural communities the urban mortality generally exceeds the rural. This will be clear in the case of Germany by comparing the following table with the previous ones. INFLUENCE OF INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT 341 Deaths per 10,000 in Germany (Mombert) In Large Cities i8g6 1898 1000-01 Died in ist yr 2,727 M53 93 1 6,596 2,220 1,048 882 6,663 2,322 1,073 •899 6,861 Died in i to 15 yrs Died in 15 to 60 yrs Died in 6o+yrs Outside Large Cities Died in ist yr 2,45° 998 892 6,885 2,053 932 850 6,797 2,134 930 879 7,207 Died in i to 15 yrs Died in 15 to 60 yrs Died in 6o+yrs The statistics of Ballod show that for males of all ages and for females with a few exceptions in advanced age groups, the average duration of life in Prussia was greater in the country than in the cities. Average Duration of Life in Prussia Age Males Females City Country City Country o. 38-71 5*-M 47.61 39-12 35-24 31-34 24.14 17.86 12.32 7.89 42-75 54-74 5!-24 42-97 39-71 35-14 27.24 19.94 I3-40 8.08 43-65 55-45 52.09 43-69 39-71 35-86 28.37 20.94 14.09 8-52 45-20 55-53 52-09 43-85 39.88 36-04 28.52 20.83 i3-7i 8.19 c. 10 20. 2C. . 3O. . 4.O.