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OCCASIONAL  PAPER  NO-  69  OCTOBER  11,  1937 


SOUTHERN  FOREST  EXPERIMENT  STATION 
E.  L.  Demraon,  Director 
New  Orleans,  La. 


A METHOD  OF  STUDYING  THE  FACTORS 
AFFECTING  INITIAL  SURVIVAL  IN  FOREST  PLANTATIONS 


by 


Philip  C.  Wakeley,  Silviculturist, 
and 


R.  A.  Chapman,  Assistant  Silviculturist 


The  Occasional  Papers  of  the  Southern  Forest  Experiment 
Station  present  information  on  current  southern  forestry  prob-- 
lems  under  investigation  at  the  Station,  In  some  cases  these 
contributions  were  first  presented  a&  addresses  to  a limited 
group  of  people,  and  as  "occasional  papers"  they  can  reach  a 
much  v/ider  audience.  In  other  cases,  they  are  summaries  of 
investigations  prepared  especially  to  give  a report  of  the 
progress  made  in  a particular  field  of  research.  In  any  case, 
the  statements  herein  contained  should  be  considered  subject 
to  correction  or  modification  as  further  data  are  obtained. 


A METHOD  OF  STUDYING  THE  FACTORS 
AFFECTING  INITIAL  SURVIVAL  IN  FOREST  PLANTATIONS 

by 

Philip  C«  Wakeley^  Silviculturist, 
and  R®  A®  Chapman,  Assistant  Silviculturist, 
Southern  Forest  Experiment  Station® 


At  one  time  or  another  almost  every  man  in  charge  of  a planting  opera- 
tion faces  the  necessity  of  studying  the  effect  of  various  factors  upon  ini- 
tial survival  ^ of  the  planted  trees®  Such  studies  are  particularly  likely 
to  be  needed  when  changes  in  nursery  practice,  planting  tools,  or  available 
labor  cause  a change  in  the  general  method  of  planting ^ when  a new  species  is 
added  to  the  list  of  those  planted;  when  planting  is  extended  to  a new  terri- 
tory; or  when  a review  of  accounts  shows  an  unduly  high  cost  per  thousand 
trees  established®  Often,  however,  the  demand  for  such  studies  arises  at  the 
height  of  the  planting  season,  when  the  men  in  charge  have  scant  time  to  de- 
vise experiments®  In  addition,  the  men  may  have  had  relatively  little  ex- 
perience in  investigative  planting®  As  a result,  the  numbers  of  trees  used 
in  the  studies  may  be  either  too  small  for  reliability  or  too  large  for  effi- 
ciency, or  flaws  in  arrangement  of  the  plots  may  cause  variations  in  soil  to 
make  insignificant  factors  appear  important  or  significant  ones  appear  negli- 
gible ® 

This  paper  describes  a method  of  laying  out  plantations  and  of  recording 
survival  counts  which  the  Southern  Station  has  found  particularly  well  adapted 
to  the  study  of  most  of  the  factors  affecting  survival.  The  method^  which  re- 
quires that  the  plantations  be  laid  out  in  what  are  known  as  "balanced,  random- 
ized blocks",  is  based  on  one  developed  largely  by  R.  A.  Fisher.  Althoxjgh  at 
first  glance  it  appears  considerably  more  complex  than  the  old-fashioned  "plot 
and  check-plot"  studies,  or  than  plantations  of  two  treatments  in  alternate 
rows,  it  is  actually  very  easy  to  apply  if  the  directions  given  here  are  fol- 
lowed step  by  step.  The  little  extra  trouble  involved  is  more  than  offset  by 
the  greater  economy  of  planting  and  increased  dependability  of  results.  These 
advantages  are  attained  by  the  internal  arrangement  of  the  experimental  plan- 
tations, which  largely  eliminates  the  disturbing  effects  of  irregular  moisture 
supply,  variations  in  soil,  and  differences  in  competing  vegetation,  and  which 
makes  it  possible,  by  planting  a relatively  small  number  of  trees,  to  measure 
accurately  tne  net  effect  of  the  different  treatments  being  studied. 


1/  Initial  survival  may  be  defined  as  that  shown  by  the  planted  stock  after  the 
occurrence  of  the  mortality  more  or  less  directly  brought  about  by  the  whole 
process  of  planting,  including  the  environment  chosen  for  the  planted  trees. 

It  is  usually  best  measured  at  the  end  of  the  first  growing  season,  but  in  spe- 
cial cases  supplementary  measurements  may  be  desirable  about  the  first  week  in 
June  of  the  first  growing  season  and  at  the  end  of  the  second  or  third  growing 
seasons.  A study  of  initial  survival  should  not  include  effect  of  epidemics, 
insect  infestations,  or  droughts  after  the  planted  trees  are  well  established, 
and  of  course  never  includes  later  losses  arising  from  competition  as  the 
crov\Tis  close. 


Many  modifications  of  the  method  are  possible, , but  unless  the  planter 
is  an  experienced  statistician,  it  is  suggested  that  he  follow  strictly  the 
application  described  here,  lest  he  weaken  his  results  or  make  them  entirely 
unreliable • 


Material  and  Equipment  Required 

In  addition  to  the  necessary  planting  tools  and  planting  stock,  the 
following  materials  and  equipment  will  be  required  to  carry  out  the  study; 
much  time  and  annoyance  (and  possibly  serious  errors  in  the  work)  can  be 
avoided  by  preparing  them  in  advance ^ 

1,  Office  equipment; 

a«  A set  of  wooden  "lotto"  or  "bingo"  numbers 
running  from  1 to  60  or  higher,  for  randomizing®  They 
can  be  obtained  at  almost  any  5-  and  10-cent  store® 

Other  numbered  objects,  such  as  slips  of  paper  or  flat 
metal  tags,  can  not  be  mixed  thoroughly  in  a reasonable 
time  and  should  not  be  used, 

b«  A tin  can  with  straight  sides,  or  a cylindrical 
oatmeal  box,  for  shaking  up  the  numbers® 

c®  One  establishment  report  diagram  (form  1)  for 
each  block®  This  form  is  more  convenient  if  typewritten* 

d®  One  establishment  report  summary  (form  2)  for 
every  four  blocks®  This  also  should  be  typed  if  possible. 

e®  One  field  examination  record  (form  3)  for  each 
examination  of  each  treatment ; as  a relatively  large 
supply  of  these  forms  is  involved,  mimeographing  them  is 
recommended  rather  than  typewriting® 

2®  Field  equipment; 

f®  Large,  durable  corner  posts  sufficient  to  mark 
"block"  corners® 

g.  Enough  small,  durable  stakes — 2 feet  is  a good 
length — to  mark  each  end  of  every  row® 

h®  At  least  one  measuring  cord,  26  times  as  long  as 
the  distance  between  one  tree  and  the  next  In  the  planta- 
tion® From  two  to  eight  cords  will  be  needed  in  large 
studies®  Each  cord  must  have  a loop  at  each  end  to  be 
slipped  over  the  stake  at  each  end  of  the  row,  and  must  be 
marked  at  equal  intervals,  with  paint  or  tags,  to  show 
where  25  trees  are  to  be  planted  in  the  row,  at  the  spacing 
chosen.  (A  spacing  of  5 feet  between  trees  and  between 
rows  is  suggested,  as  it  reduces  the  size  of  the  plot 
and  makes  it  easier  to  find  trees  on  re-examination,  but 
6x6  feet  or  any  other  moderately  close  spacing  will  serve.) 


- 2 - 


Size  and  Arrangement  of  the  Plantation 


At  any  given  spacing,  the  area  required  for  an  experimental  plantation 
depends  upon  the  number  of  treatments  to  be  tested*  The  method  described 
here  is  flexible  enough  to  permit  from  10  to  60  different  treatments  in  one 
experiment*  It  is  best  adapted,  however,  to  testing  l6  to  30  treatments  at 
once*  Actual  practice  has  shown  that  studies  of  less  than  10  or  more  than  60 
treatments  made  as  described  in  this  paper  are  generally  inefficient  and  lack 
desirable  precision. 

The  plantation  layout  has  been  developed  to  test  each  treatment  by 

means  of  100  trees.  The  total  number  of  trees  in  a study,  therefore,  equals 

100  times  the  number  of  treatments.  These  trees  are  planted  in  four  blocks 
of  identical  size  and  shape,  laid  out  as  follows? 

The  length  of  each  block  is  26  times  the  distance  between  two  consecu- 
tive trees  in  the  row,  that  is,  long  enough  to  accommodate  rows  of  25  trees 

each.  The  width  of  each  block  is  obtained  by  adding  1 to  the  number  of  treat- 
ments to  be  tested,  and  multiplying  this  sum  by  the  distance  between  two  ad- 
jacent rows,  which  should  be  the  same  as  that  between  two  trees  in  a row.  For 
20  treatments  spaced  5x5  feet,  there  would  consequently  be  required  4 blocks 
each  130  x 105  feet. 

These  four  blocks  should  be  laid  out  on  as  uniform  a site  as  possible. 
Furthermore > it  is  especially  important  that  conditions  within  each  block  be 
uniform;  if  the  site  as  a whole  shows  differences  that  cannot  be  avoided,  the 
blocks  should  be  laid  out  so  that  there  is  less  difference  between  two  parts 
of  any  one  block  than  betvifeen  tv/o  blocks  each  taken  as  a whole. 

On  a fairly  uniform  site  the  blocks  should  be  laid  out  end  to  end  in  a 
rectangle;  this  arrangement  has  the  advantages  of  simplifying  work  and  saving 
stakes.  On  a site  marred  by  small  drainage  ways,  areas  of  strikingly  differ- 
ent soil,  or  patches  of  heavy  brush,  these  advantages  should  be  sacrificed  and 
the  blocks  separated  to  exclude  the  disturbing  factors;  this  precaution  is 
necessary  to  maintain  the  comparability  of  rows  within  each  block.  The  great- 
est-gap between  blocks  ordinarily  should  not  exceed  100  feet. 

When  the  corners  of  the  four  blocks  have  been  established,  the  next 
step  is  to  drive  stakes  at  the  ends  of  the  blocks,  at  the  spacing  decided 
upon,  to  mark  the  beginning  and  end  of  each  row.  The  blocks  should  then  be 
given  the  designations  A,  B,  C,  and  D (or  other  convenient  designations), 
beginning  with  the  block  farthest  from  the  road  or  other  avenue  of  approach. 
Each  series  of  stakes  marking  the  ends  of  the  rows  should  be  numbered  from  1 
to  20  (or  whatever  the  number  of  tests  is),  with  the  numbers  running  from 
left  to  right,  (Paint,  metal  tags,  or  a good,  permanent  grade  of  lumber 
keel  may  be  used  to  mark  the  row  stakes.) 

This  system  of  lettering  and  numbering  is  suggested  because,  as  one 
approaches  the  plantation  from  the  road  gate,  it  makes  an  orderly  arrangement 
of  block  letters,  row  numbers,  and  tree  numbers,  running  in  the  same  direction 
as  the  writing  on  a sheet  of  paper  (fig.  1).  As  will  be  seen  in  the  sections 
on  planting  and  on  re-examination,  ease  in  finding  any  particular  row  is  es- 
sential to  efficient  use  of  the  method. 


~ 3 - 


Arrangement  of  Tests  Within  Blocks 


The  blocks  can  be  laid  out  in  the  field,  staked,  and  numbered  as  soon 
as  it  has  been  decided  how  many  methods  are  to  be  tested  and  what  spacing  is 

to  be  used.  Before  the  actual  planting  can  be  done,  however,  the  arrangement 

of  tests  within  blocks  must  be  determined.  As  the  method  of  experimental 
planting  under  discussion  depends  for  its  success  entirely  upon  this  arrange-  *, 
ment,  the  following  directions  must  be  followed  exactly; 

1,  List  the  treatments  to  be  tested,  for  example,  20,  in  any  conve-  \ 

nient  order  on  form  2,  and  number  them  from  1 to  20,  as  in  the  example  on  j 

page  15.  j 

2,  Take  lotto  numbers  1 to  20  and  place  them  in  a cup. 

3,  Take  a copy  of  form  1 and  head  it  for  block  A,  as  in  the  example 
on  page  13. 

4,  Shake  the  lotto  numbers  thoroughly  and  blindly  draw  one  from  the 
cup  without  exercising  any  choice  in  any  way.  Copy  this  number  in  the  second 
column  on  form  1,  opposite  row  number  J.,  Lay  the  drawn  number  aside;  do  not 
return  it  to  the  cup. 

5,  Draw  the  rest  of  the  numbers  and  copy  them  in  the  second  column  of 

form  1,  opposite  row  numbers  _2,  _3,  etc,,  laying  each  aside  as  soon  as 

copied.  This  process  gives  the  order  in  which  the  various  treatments  (20 
rov/s  of  25  trees  each)  will  be  arranged  in  block  A,  and  in  block  A only. 

6,  Head  a second  form  1 for  block  B,  replace  the  lotto  numbers  in  the 
can,  shake  thoroughly,  draw  the  numbers  at  random  as  before,  and  copy,  as 
drawn,  in  the  second  column,  to  give  the  order  of  treatments  in  block  B. 

7,  Repeat  the  process  for  block  C;  also  for  block  D, 

8,  Now  turn  again  to  form  2,  which  gives  the  nature  of  the  treatment 
corresponding  to  each  treatment  number.  Using  this  as  a guide,  enter  the 
nature  of  the  corresponding  trea.tment  opposite  each  treatment  number  that  has 
been  entered  on  form  1 for  block  A,  for  block  B,  etc.  Form  1 for  each  block 
thus  becomes  a diagram,  from  which  the  actual  method  under  test  in  any  row 
can  be  read  at  any  time;  the  row  number  can  of  course  be  read  instantly  from 
the  stake  at  the  beginning  or  end  of  the  row. 

9,  While  entering  on  form  1 the  nature  of  treatment  read  from  form  2, 
enter  also  on  form  2,  in  the  appropriately  lettered  column,  the  number  of  the 
row  in  which  that  treatment  is  being  tested  in  the  block.  This  makes  of  form 
2 a cross-index  to  the  location  of  treatments  — an  Index  which  is  invaluable 
not  only  in  supervising  and  checking  the  work  of  planting  but  also  in  making 
out  the  forms  for  later  survival  counts, 

A word  of  caution  is  necessary  concerning  the  process  of  selecting  at 
random  the  rows  to  which  the  various  treatment  numbers  are  assigned.  Each 
block  in  each  experiment  must  be  randomized  afresh.  Except  in  the  rare  event 
that  an  identical  arrangement  appears  by  chance,  the  same  arrangement  must 
not  be  used  twice,  either  in  the  same  study  or  in  different  studies.  If  it 
does  appear  by  chance,  it  must  be  used,  because  the  numbers  must  be  accepted 


- 4 - 


as  they  fall«  The  person  arranging  the  layout  may  no  more  reject  a series 
of  drawn  numbers  "because  he  doesn’t  like  the  looks  of  it"  or  because  it  re- 
sembles or  duplicates  a previous  series ^ than  he  may  substitute  a systematic 
arrangement  of  tests  for  the  random  arrangement  upon  which  the  ultimate  suc- 
cess of  the  method  depends*  If  lotto  numbers  of  uniform  size  are  used,  and 
if  they  are  well  shaken  in  a cup  that  is  large  enough  to  permit  free  movement, 
the  experimenter  may  feel  confidence  in  such  randomizations,  which  are  abso- 
lutely essential  to  the  measurement  of  the  precision  of  results  obtained  in 
the  study. 


Establishment  of  the  Plantation 


The  following  precautions  must  be  observed  in  the  actual  establishment 
of  the  plantation,  lest  disturbing  factors  enter  in  and  obscure  the  effects 
of  the  treatments  to  be  tested* 

1*  Except  in  a test  of  season-of-planting , or  of  weather-at-time-of- 
planting , all  four  blocks  should  be  planted  in  one  day.  If  they  are  not, 
some  of  the  stock  will  be  subjected  to  one  set  of  weather  conditions  (risk  of 
drying  out,  etc.)  and  some  to  another.  In  fact,  a week  of  bad  weather  inter- 
vening between  two  planting  days  may  seriously  derange  the  experiment.  In 
the  example  cited  on  forms  1 and  2,  involving  method  and  duration  of  storage, 
the  stock  should  be  lifted  at  5-day  intervals  and  planted  all  in  one  day, 
instead  of  being  lifted  all  in  one  day  and  held  for  progressively  longer 
periods. 

2.  It  is  best  if  one  man  (or  one  pair  of  men  working  together)  plants 
all  four  blocks.  If  the  number  of  treatments  to  be  tested  makes  this  impos- 
sible within  the  limit  of  one  day,  two  men  (or  two  pairs)  should  each  plant 
two  blocks,  or  four  men  (or  pairs)  should  each  plant  one  block.  Two  men 
should  never  divide  the  work  on  any  one  block. 

With  the  treatments  given  on  forms  1 and  2,  for  example,  one  man  should 
not  plant  all  the  heeled-in  stock  and  another  all  the  baled  stock,  because,  if 
the  baled  stock  showed  poorer  survival,  it  would  be  impossible  to  tell  whether 
losses  were  the  result  of  baling  or  of  poor  planting  by  one  man.  Similarly, 
if  one  man  plants  both  heeled-in  and  baled  stock  on  blocks  A and  B,  and  a 
poorer  planter  plants  both  stocks  on  blocks  C and  D,  and  if  blocks  C and  D 
show  a low  average  survival  for  all  treatments,  it  will  be  impossible  to  tell 
whether  the  losses  on  blocks  C and  D were  caused  by  poor  planting  or  by  poor 
Soil  on  those  blocks.  This,  however,  is  not  important,  as  the  study  is  of 
treatments . not  of  planters  or  plots  of  ground,  and  those  particular  blocks 
(and  probably  also  the  particular  planters)  will  never  be  used  again.  The 
important  thing  is  that  stock  from  each  storage  method  (heel-in  and  bale)  be 
equally  exposed  to  both  good  and  bad  soils  and  to  good  and  bad  planting  so 
that  the  true  differences  between  the  storage  methods,  if  any,  will  be  brought 
out. 

3.  Even  at  the  expense  of  extra  walking  and  loss  of  time,  it  is  usual- 
ly better  to  plant  treatments  in  numerical  order,  and  to  complete  each  on  all, 
four  blocks  before  going  to  the  next  treatment,  than  to  plant  row  1,  row  2, 
etc.,  of  each  block  consecutively.  The  example  on  forms  1 and  2 illustrates 
this  point  clearly.  If  the  bale  for  treatment  no«  2 is  opened  to  plant  row  7 
of  block  A,  and  left  open  during  the  planting  of  rows  8-20  in  block  A,  all  of 


- 5 - 


blocks  B and  C,  and  several  rows  in  block  D,  the  stock  drawn  from  this  bale 
for  the  appropriate  row  in  block D may  have  been  very  seriously  affected  by 
changes  in  temperature  and  moistui*e»  Figure  1 shows  the  logical  progress  of 
planting,  through  the  planting  of  the  first  175  of  a total  of  2,000  trees* 

With  these  precautions  in  mind,  the  simplest  way  to  supervise  a small 
experimental  planting  is  to  give  one  man  a measuring  string  (or,  preferably, 
four  strings)  and  the  form  1 for  all  foUf  blocks,  while  a second  man  (or 
pair),  equipped  with  the  necessary  tools,  gets  the  stock  for  each  treatment 
in  turn,  under  the  direction  of  the  man  in  charge.  It  is  advisable  to  count 
the. stock  into  four  groups  of  25  trees  each  before  distributing  to  the  plant-j 

er^ labeling  each  group  with  block,  row  number,  and  treatment  number,  read 
from  form  2 by  the  man  in  charge. 

The  man  with  the  marking  string  glances  down  the  second  column  of  form 
1 for  block  A,  sees  that  treatment  1 is  to  be  planted  on  row  2,  and  accord- 
ingly stretches  a measuring  string  from  the  no*  2 stake  on  the  far  side  of 
block  A to  the  no,  2 stake  on  the  near  side.  Then  the  planter,  or  pair  of  | 
planters , plants  one  tree  at  each  mark  on  the  string  and  tucks  the  label  from 
the  bundle  of  trees  into  the  grass  at  the  foot  of  the  stake  at  the  far  end  of  ^ 
the  row.  Meanwhile  the  "string -man”  goes  to  block  B and  stretches  a string 
between  the  appropriate  stakes  (marking  row  17),  shown  by  the  position  of 
treatment  no.  1 in  the  second  column  of  form  1 for  block  B, 


Even  on  the  largest  studies,  with  four  blocks  of  60  rov;s  each,  the 
same  system  works*  A study  of  this  size,  however,  requires  four  planters 
(or  pairs);  each  block  then  requires  one  planter,  a string -man,  two  strings, 
and,  if  possible,  a carrier  to  relieve  the  planters  from  walking  back  and 
forth  with  supplies  of  stock.  Under  this  arrangement,  the  string-men  carry 
the  copies  of  form  1 for  their  respective  blocks. 


The  Southern  Forest  Experiment  Station,  working  on  blocks  laid  out  as 
described  with  a crew  of  13  experienced  GCC  enrollees  (4  string-men,  4 plant- 
ers, 4 carriers,  and  1 tree-counter  to  assist  the  officer  in  charge)  and  us-  ; 
ing  8 strings,  has  planted  7,200  trees  in  5 working  hours,  without  undue  haste J 
The  stakes,  of  course,  had  all  been  driven  and  numbered  in  advance. 

Each  string -man,  as  he  finishes  stretching  a string,  should  check  off 
both  row  number  and  treatment  number,  in  pencil,  on  form  1.  When  the  plant- 
ing has  been  completed,  the  man  in  charge  of  the  work  should  go  along  each 
row  of  stakes,  picking  up  the  labels  removed  from  the  groups  of  trees  and 
checking  the  stake  number  and  label  against  form  2,  If  any  error  has  oc- 
curred, forms  1 and  2 should  be  corrected  to  show  the  actual  location  of  the 
treatments  on  the  ground,  as  these  forms  are  an  essential  part  of  the  record 
and  constitute  the  guide  to  re-examination. 

Forms  1 and  2,  completely  filled  in,  together  with  a map  showing  the 
location  of  all  the  blocks,  and  with  descriptions  of  the  stock  (including 
seed  soui'ce),  planting  site,  weather  during  planting,  and  treatments  being 
tested,  constitute  all  the  establishment  report  needed. 


- 6 - 


Type  of  Survival  Study  to  Which  the 
Foregoing  Layout  is  Particularly  Adapted 

The  layout  just  described  is  especially  adapted  to  the  study  of 
factors  affecting  the  individual  tree  rather  than  the  entire  planting  site. 
Such  factors  are  the  species,  age,  class,  grade,  health,  or  size  of  the 
planting  stock;  its  treatment  by  cultivation,  fertilizing,  shading,  or  water- 
ing in  the  nursery;  root  pruning  during  the  growing  season  or  at  lifting 
time;  mechanical  injury  or  exposure  during  lifting  or  planting;  method  or 
diiration  of  storage  of  planting  stock;  season  of  planting;  depth  of  planting; 
tool  used;  localized  site  preparation,  such  as  plowing  of  furrows  or  hoeing 
of  spots;  control  of  pests  by  various  sprays;  and  control  of  drought  injury 
by  shading,  mulching,  coating  with  oil,  or  pruning  the  needles.  Most  sur- 
vival studies  involve  just  such  factors. 

The  layout  of  four  balanced  blocks,  each  with  treatments  randomized  by 
25-tree  rows,  is  not  adapted  to  studies  of  the  effect  of  treatments  applied 
to  the  site  as  a whole  rather  than  to  the  individual  tree.  Such  studies  in- 
clude eradication  or  control  of  animals,  insects,  or  diseases  by  scattered 
baits,  poison  applied  to  burrows,  or  removal  of  alternate  hosts;  control  of 
competing  brush  large  enough  to  exert  its  influence  beyond  the  width  of  a 
row;  preparation  of  the  entire  site,  as  by  burning  or  by  complete  plowing  and 
harrowing;  and  effect  of  soil  type  or  topography.  It  is  obviously  impossible 
to  get  typical  burns  on  single  rows,  or  to  arrange  ridges,  slopes,  and  draws 
according  to  the  chance  order  of  the  lotto  numbers.  For  studies  of  this  kind 
special  techniques  must  be  developed. 

In  choosing  the  treatments  to  include  in  one  study,  that  is,  in  one 
set  of  four  blocks,  care  must  be  taken  to  compare  similar  things.  Except  as 
noted  in  the  following  section,  any  one  study  should  be  confined  to  varia- 
tions of  one  factor  (such  as  root  length,  storage,  or  planting  tool),  or 
should  test  several  complete  planting  systems  such  as  have  been  developed  and 
found  effective  in  different  territories,  A study  should  not  include  compar- 
isons between  "date  of  planting"  and  "2~year-old  stock",  or  between  "seed- 
lings fertilized  in  nursery"  and 'teeedlings  heeled-in  for  40  days";  such  mis- 
cellaneous comparisons  are  meaningless. 


Special  Cases 

A modification  of  the  general  method  very  greatly  increases  the  effec- 
tiveness of  the  layout  in  many  instances,  especially  if  the  number  of  avail- 
able treatments  (for  example,  tools,  or  root  lengths)  falls  below  15.  This 
modification  involves  applying  each  of  several  original  treatments  (perhaps 
10,  as  in  the  case  of  tools)  to  each  of  two  species,  or  to  each  of  two  ages 
or  grades  of  planting  stock.  The  combination  of  several  original  treatments 
with  two  species  is  especially  effective;  in  fact,  three  or  even  four  species 
may  sometimes  be  used  to  advantage. 

In  applying  this  modification,  each  combination  of  original  treatment 
(such  as  tool)  with  species  constitutes  a separate  final  treatment.  For  ex- 
ample, 10  tools  tried  simultaneously  with  longleaf  and  slash  pine  would  give 
a total  of  20  treatments  to  randomize  over  each  block,  with  each  tool  repre- 
sented by  50  trees  (25  longleaf  and  25  slash)  on  each  block,  and  each  species 
by  250  trees  (25  for  each  tool)  on  each  block. 


- 7 - 


There  are  two  advantages  of  this  special  modification;  One  is  that  it 
makes  it  possible  to  test  a limited  number  of  original  treatments  (such  as  10 
tools)  and  still  bring  the  number  of  rows  in  each  block  within  the  range  (16 
to  30)  which  appears  most  effective;  the  other  is  that  it  brings  to  light  any 
differential  response  of  species  (or  age  or  grade  of  stock)  to  treatment. 

One  tool,  for  example,  may  work  well  with  longleaf  and  poorly  with  slash  pine, 
or  the  shortest  permissible  root  length  for  one  species  may  differ  by  2 or  3 
inches  from  that  for  the  other.  Such  information  is  extremely  valuable  in 
determining  planting  policies  and  in  supervising  routine  commercial  planting 
of  either  species. 

Re-examination  of  the  Plantation  to  Record  Survival 


Re-examination  of  the  plantation,  apparently  complicated  by  the  random 
arrangement  of  treatments  in  each  block,  is  actually  very  simple,  provided 
only  that  the  numbers  on  the  stakes  marking  the  rov/s  are  distinct  and  that 
form  2 is  co:^ectly  made  out.  The  ease  of  examination  results  from  the  use 
of  form  3,  -2/  one  copy  of  which  is  needed  for  each  treatment  being  tested. 


To  prepare  the  forms  for  re-examination,  enter  at  the  head  of  the  -j 

first  copy  of  form  3 the  study,  species,  and  nature  of  treatment  for  treat- 
ment no.  1,  taken  from  form  2 as  made  out  when  the  plantation  was  established  -4 
(see  pages  4 and  15).  At  the  tops  of  the  four  main  columns  on  form  3 enter 
the  block  designations,  A,  B,  C,  and  D,  as  shown.  Then,  from  form  2 take  the  '-‘I 

number  of  the  row  in  which  treatment  no.  1 was  planted  in  each  block,  and 

enter  it  under  the  designation  of  that  block  on  form  3.  In  like  manner  pre-  ^ 
pare  forms  for  treatments  2,  3?  etc.  (see  page  17). 

For  most  efficient  field  work  in  re-examination,  go  first  to  row  1 in  i 
block  A.  Take  the  sheets  (form  3)  for  all  20  treatments  (or  whatever  the 
number  is)  and  arrange  them  in  numerical  order  according  to  the  row  numbers  | 
entered  in  the  first  main  column,  under  the  heading  "Block  A."  Go  down  row  1,  % 
entering  the  condition,  etc.,  of  each  tree  opposite  the  tree  number  on  form  3.  | 
Tree  1 in  row  1 should  be  in  the  far,  left-hand  corner  of  the  block  as  it  is 
approached  from  the  road  or  gate,  as  suggested  on  page  3 and  in  figure  1.  A 1 

measuring  stick  may  help  to  speed  up  the  work  if  survival  is  low  or  if  the  ^ 

trees  are  hard  to  find  in  the  grass;  in  extreme  cases  it  may  save  time  to 
stretch  the  original  measuring  string  along  the  row.  Since  exactly  25  trees 
were  planted  in  the  row,  the  list  of  trees  living,  dead,  or  missing  must  total 
25  in  the  corresponding  column  on  form  3* 


When  the  main  column  for  row  1 of  block  A has  been  filled  in,  replace 
the  form  3 for  that  row  with  the  one  for  row  2,  move  over  one  space  in  the 
plantation  to  row  2,  and  enter  the  record  for  that  row  on  its  form.  It  is 
not  necessary  to  walk  back  to  the  no.  1 tree  in  row  2;  the  row  can  be  run  in 
reverse  by  starting  at  the  bottom  of  the  main  column  on  form  3j  opposite  tree 
no.  25^  and  working  upward  on  the  form. 

2/  Form  3,  originated  by  C.  F.  Olsen,  Assistant  Silviculturist,  Southern 
Forest  Experiment  Station,  is  essentially  a mechanical  means  of  "unrandomiz- 
ing” the  randomized  rows  for  purposes  of  re-examination  and  averaging.  The 
reduction  in  cost  and  in  errors  resulting  from  its  use  in  an  important  factor 
in  making  the  method  of  randomized  balanced  blocks  feasible  for  extensive 
studies  of  survival  in  forest  planting. 


- 8 - 


When  the  last  (for  example,  the  20th)  row  in  block  A has  been  examined, 
in  each  of  the  20  forms  the  first,  or  left-hand,  main  column  will  be  filled 
in,  and  the  other  three  main  columns  will  be  blank , The  next  step  is  to  ar- 
range the  20  forms  in  numerical  order,  based  on  the  row  numbers  in  the  second 
main  column,  for  block  V/hen  this  has  been  done,  proceed  with  the  examina^ 
tion  of  block  B as  with  block  A,  and  repeat  for  blocks  C and  D^ 

For  the  sake  of  uniformity  in  accuracy  and  judgment,  it  is  best  to  have 
one  man  re-examine  all  the  trees  in  one  study » In  the  case  of  very  large 
studies,  or  of  great  numbers  of  studies,  it  may  be  necessary  to  work  with  sev- 
eral assistants.  If  four  assistants  are  used,  one  might  be  given  the  first 
five  rows  on  each  block,  the  second  the  next  five,  and  so  on»  By  giving  the 
same  man  the  same  portion  of  each  successive  block,  slight  differences  in  ac- 
curacy and  judgment  are  "averaged  out"  by  the  random  arrangement  of  treat- 
ments, just  as  are  slight  differences  in  soil  within  each  block.  Gross  dif- 
ferences in  accuracy  and  judgment,  however,  can  not  be  tolerated. 

Form  3,  as  given,  provides  for  records  of  vigor  and  injury^  as  well  as 
of  survival.  Such  records,  if  carefully  taken,  may  add  greatly  to  the  value 
of  the  study,  and  their  inclusion  tends  to  increase  the  accuracy  of  the  sur- 
vival counts.  At  the  bottom  of  form  3 are  shown  symbols  (capital  letters  for 
condition  and  vigor,  small  letters  for  injuries)  found  useful  by  the  Southern 
Forest  Experiment  Station;  other  symbols  may  be  added  as  needed.  It  must  be 
remembered,  however,  that  the  plantation  has  been  established  primarily  to 
study  survival.  All  other  information  is  of  secondary  importance,  and  form  3 
may  therefore  be  simplified  by  omitting  all  "vigor"  and  "injury"  columns  and 
retaining  merely  a "condition"  column  for  each  block. 

Analysis  and  Summary  of  Results 

Since  each  treatment  has  been  tested  by  planting  100  trees  (25  per 
treatment  per  block),  the  total  number  of  living  trees  recorded  on  form  3 
for  that  treatment  constitutes  the  survival  percentage. 

The  survival  percentages  for  the  various  treatments  may  be  entered 
along  the  right-hand  margin  of  form  2,  or  summarized  or  tabulated  in  any  oth- 
er manner  desired.  The  ideal  procedure  is  to  make  an  analysis  of  variance 
and  to  test  the  significance  of / the  differences  betv/een  the  survival  percent- 
ages  of  different  treatments,  ^ but  this  requires  both  extra  time  and 


j/  This  method  of  analysis  was  first  used  by  Fisher  and  is  presented  in; 
Fisher,  R„  A.  Statistical  methods  for  research  workers.  Ed«  5#  rev/  and 
enl.  319  PP«?  illus.  London  1934 » 

For  an  elementary  description  of  the  analyses,  see; 

Bruce,  Donald,  and  Schumacher,  Francis  X.  Forest  mensuration.-  360  pp-,, 
illus.  IlZ]  New  York  and  London.  1935.^ 

Snedecor,  George  W.  Calculation  and  interpretation  of  analysis  of  variance 
and  covariance.  96  pp.,  35  tables..  Monograph  No.  !<,  Division  of  Industrial 
Science,  Iowa  State  College.  Collegiate  Press,  Inc.,  Ames,  Iowa.  1934« 

Ti^ett,  L«  H.  C.  The  methods  of  statistics,  222  pp.,  illus.  [chs^  VI  and 
X.J  London.  1931. 


- 9 - 


considerable  familiarity  with  statistical  technique. 


It  should  be  emphasized,  however,  that  these  elaborate  statistical 
analyses  merely  measure  and  describe  the  precision  and  reliability  of  the 
results,  and  are  useful  only  because  they  show  what  the  odds  are  that  the 
observed  differences  in  survival  are  the  result  of  the  treatments  and  not 
of  chance.  The  precision  and  reliability  have  already  been  attained  by  the 
randomization  of  treatments  within  balanced  blocks,  and  are  there  whether 
measured  and  described  or  not.  In  other  words,  the  man  establishing  an  ex- 
perimental plantation  may  be  assured  that  differences  in  survival  shown  by 
several  treatments  tested  according  to  the  methods  here  described  reveal  the 
relative  value  of  the  treatments  much  more  clearly  than  they  would  if  each 
treatment  had  been  confined  to  one  lOO-tree  row  running  across  the  entire 
planting  site . 

The  principle  involved  can  be  illustrated  very  simply.  Suppose  20 
treatments  are  being  tested,  by  means  of  100  trees  each,  planted  in  a rectan- 
gular block  in  which  there  is  an  evident  decrease  in  soil  quality  from  north 
to  south.  The  careful  experimenter  presumably  would  have  his  rows  run  north 
and  south,  so  that  some  of  the  trees  in  each  row  would  fall  on  good  soil  and 
some  on  poor.  Suppose,  however,  that  for  the  width  of  one  or  two  rows  along 
the  west  edge  of  the  plot  there  is  a strip  of  soil  that  appears  to  the  eye  to 
be  like  the  rest,  but  is  actually  much  more  favorable  to  initial  survival. 

If  each  treatment  is  confined  to  a single  row  running  the  length  of  the  plot, 
the  one  or  two  rows  falling  on  the  strip  of  good  soil  will  show  an  initial 
survival  out  of  all  proportion  to  the  merits  of  the  treatments  tested  in 
those  rows.  But  if  the  plot  is  divided  into  four  equal  blocks,  each  25  trees 
long,  and  the  treatments  are  rearranged  at  random  in  each  block,  the  odds  are 
very  small  that  any  one  treatment  will  fall  on  the  strip  of  good  soil  in  all 
four  blocks.  If  it  falls  elsewhere,  even  in  only  one  block,  the  average  sur- 
vival of  that  treatment  is  decreased,  and  the  average  survival  of  the  treat- 
ment that  replaces  it  on  the  good  soil  is  increased,  thus  reducing  the  dif- 
ferences in  average  survival  arising  solely  from  soil  fertility.  The  princi- 
ple that  applies  in  the  case  of  such  a narrow  strip  of  favorable  soil  applies 
equally  to  soil  or  other  variations  of  any  other  size  or  shape. 


Summary  of  Precautions 

To  aid  in  avoiding  delay  or  errors  in  establishing  survival  studies, 
the  following  precautions  are  summarized  in  the  order  in  which  the  need  for 
them  is  likely  to  occur; 

1.  Have  clearly  in  mind  the  kind  and  number  of  treatments  to  be 
tested,  being  sure  that  all  those  in  one  study  may  be  legitimately  compared 
or  contrasted. 

2,  Record  the  description  of  each  treatment  in  writing,  so  that  the 
successful  treatments  can  be  unquestionably  duplicated  and  the  unsuccessful 
ones  avoided  in  later  practice. 

3*  Before  beginning  actual  installation,  obtain  lotto  numbers,  a re- 
ceptacle for  shaking,  a supply  of  forms,  the  required  number  of  marking 
strings,  and  the  necessary  corner  posts  and  row  stakes. 


- 10  - 


4.  In  laying  out  the  plantation,  take  every  reasonable  precaution  to 
have  uniform  conditions  throughout  each  individual  block* 

5e  If  unavoidable  differences  occur  over  the  planting  area  as  a whole, 
lay  out  the  blocks  so  that  the  greatest  differences  occur  between  one  block 
and  another,  and  the  least  possible  differences  within  any  one  block* 

6,  Keep  blocks  fairly  close  together,  each  preferably  v;ithin  100  feet 
of  the  next,  if  not  actually  adjoining* 

7*  Mark  the  blocks  with  durable  posts,  plainly  labeled,  before  plant- 
ing; the  blocks  should  also  be  mapped  for  the  office  record* 

8.  Stake  the  rows  before  planting* 

9.  Number  the  rows  systematically,  preferably  as  shown  on  page  3 and 
in  figure  1* 

10.  In  randomizing  treatments  over  block  diagrams  (form  1),  mix  the 
lotto  numbers  very  thoroughly,  and  draw,  list,  and  retain  the  numbers  as  they 
come,  without  bias,  laying  each  number  aside  as  drawn. 

11*  Check  forms  1 and  2 against  each  other  before  beginning  planting* 

12.  Plant  the  entire  study  in  one  day  (unless  it  is  a study  of  weather- 
on-day-of-planting,  or  of  date-of-planting ) * Do  not  start  work  if  rain 
threatens  to  prevent  completion* 

13 e Use  one  planter  or  pair  of  planters  for  the  entire  study,  if  the 
study  is  small  enough  for  them  to  complete  in  one  day.  If  it  is  too  large 
for  this  and  more  men  must  be  used,  be  sure  that  each  block  is  planted  by  the 
same  man  (or  pair)  throughout*  Within  any  one  block  never  have  one  species 
or  treatment  planted  by  one  man,  and  another  by  another  man* 

14.  Be  careful  not  to  introduce  any  disturbing  factors,  such  as  using 
seedlings  of  one  seed  source  or  date  of  sowing  for  one  treatment  and  of  a 
different  source  or  date  for  another;  exposing  part  of  the  stock  in  treatment 
no.  1 to  a much  longer  period  of  drying  than  the  rest;  or  dipping  part  of  the 
stock  in  water  and  planting  the  rest  without  dipping . In  the  example  cited 
on  pages  4?  13,  and  15,  the  "fresh  checks"  for  the  storage  study  must  also 
be  baled  and  heeled-in,  if  only  for  a minute,  lest  they  benefit  from  less 
handling  as  well  as  from  prompter  planting  than  the  other  stock. 

15 « Before  leaving  the  planting  site,  be  absolutely  sure  that  the 
records  on  forms  1 and  2 agree  with  the  location  of  the  treatments  on  the 
ground. 

16.  Before  beginning  re-examinations,  check  all  copies  of  form  3 for 
accuracy  of  species,  treatment,  and  block  and  row  designations* 

17.  In  re-examining  any  one  block,  be  particularly  careful  to  avoid 
entering  data  for  two  rows  on  the  same  sheet  of  paper.  Take  a new  sheet  for 
each  new  row  of  trees. 


11  - 


18a  In  running  from  the  high-numbered  to  the  low-numbered  end  of 
the  row,  remember  to  begin  at  the  bottom  of  the  corresponding  column  on 
form  3 . 


19.  Allow  plenty  of  time  for  re-examination  and  thus  avoid  careless 
inaccuracies.  Search  thoroughly  before  calling  a tree  (=missing,  or 
blank).  If  this  work  is  entrusted  to  subordinates,  be  sure  that  they  are 
adequately  trained  and  instructed,  and  check  their  work  by  examining  a num- 
ber of  rows  without  letting  them  know  which  rows  you  are  going  to  check, 

20.  Be  sure  that  every  form  (1,  2,  or  3)  includes  the  name  or  de- 
scription of  the  study  (including  species),  the  season  of  establishment,  the 
date  the  form  was  filled  in,  and  the  name  or  initials  of  the  man  responsible 
for  the  accuracy  of  the  data. 


SAMPLE  FORiM  1„  ESTABLISH?4ENT  REPORT  DIAGRAM 


Block  A*  Study;  Test  of  method  and  duration  of 
storage  of  slash  pine  planting  stock 


Planted  by on  193_. 


Supervised  by_ 


Row  No. 

Treatment  No. 

Nature  of  treatment 

1 

19 

Heeled-in,  then  taken  up  and  planted  immediately 

2 

1 

Heel-in  5 days 

3 

15 

Heel-in  40  days 

4 

17 

Heel-in  45  days 

5 

16 

Bale  40  days 

6 

3 

Heel-in  10  days 

7 

2 

Bale  5 days 

8 

18 

Bale  45  days 

9 

6 

Bale  15  days 

10 

13 

Heel-in  35  days 

11 

10 

Bale  25  days 

12 

9 

Heel-in  25  days 

13 

5 

Heel-in  15  days 

14 

11 

Heel-in  30  days 

15 

12 

Bale  30  days 

16 

8 

Bale  20  days 

17 

4 

Bale  10  days 

18 

7 

Heel-in  20  days 

19 

14 

Bale  35  days 

20 

20 

Baled,  then  unpacked  and  planted  immediately 

- 13  - 


SAMPLE  FORM  2,  ESTABLISHMENT  REPORT  SUMT^ARY 


Study;  Test  of  method  and  dixration  of 

storage  of  slash  pine  nursery  stock 


Established  by on  , 193_* 


Treatment  No. 

Nature  of  treatment 

Row  occupied  by  treatment  in  block; 

A B C D 

1 

Heel-in  5 days 

2 17  18  11 

2 

Bale  5 days 

7 4 17  etc. 

3 

Heel-in  10  days 

6 20  etc. 

4 

Bale  10  days 

17  etc.  etc. 

5 

Heel-in  15  days 

13  etc. 

6 

Bale  15  days 

9 

7 

Heel-in  20  days 

18 

8 

Bale  20  days 

16 

9 

Heel-in  25  days 

12 

10 

Bale  25  days 

11 

11 

Heel-in  30  days 

14 

12 

Bale  30  days 

15 

13 

Heel-in  35  days 

10 

14 

Bale  35  days 

19 

15 

Heel-in  40  days 

3 

16 

Bale  40  days 

5 

17 

Heel-in  45  days 

4 

18 

Bale  45  days 

8 

19 

Heeled-in 5 then 

1 

taken  up  and  planted 

immediately 

20 

Baled,  then  impacked 

20 

and  planted  immedi- 

ately 

- 15  - 


I 

> 


1 

■j 

■ I 

A 


SAMPLE  FORf'/l  3'.  FIELD  EXAiMINATION  RECORD 


Study;  Test  of  method  and  duration  of 

storage  of  slash  pine  planting  stock 


Established  by on , 193_* 

Re-examined  by_ on  , 193_« 

Species;  Slash  pine Nature  of  treatment;  No,  1 Heel-in  5 days 


Tree 

No. 

Block  A 

Block  B 

Block  C 

Block  D 

Notes 

Row  No«  2 

Row  No.  17 

Row  NO'e  18 

Row  No*  11 

Con- 

di- 

tion 

Vigor 

In- 

Con- 

di- 

tion 

Vigor 

In- 

jury 

by 

Con- 

di- 

tion 

Vigor 

In- 

jury 

Con- 

di- 

tion 

Vigor 

In- 

jury 

by 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

11 

12 

13 

14 

15 

16 

17 

18 

19 

' 

20 

21 

22 

23 

24 

25 

To- 

tals 

Condition 

L = living 
D = dead 
B = blank 

(missing) 


SYMBOLS 

Vigor 

very  thrifty 
T2  = thrifty 
Gj  = growing 
G2  = growing  poorly 
F^^  = failing 
F2  = almost  dead 


- 17  - 


Cause  of  injury 

a = ants 
e = erosion 
d = drought 
f = fungi 
g = gophers 
i = insects  (not  ants) 
p = poor  planting 
r = rabbits 
s - silting 


i 

\ 

I 

V 


Figure  L Diagram  of  storage  siady  ploni-aHon  described  in  iex-f, 
shor/mg  locoiion  of  firsi  /75  -frees  p /an  fed. 

/?o»v  N urr? her 


- 19  - 


I 


?