The dairy and the world food problem ..

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UNITED STATES FOOD ADMINISTRATION

JUNE 19 18

DAIRY an d the ,

WORLD FOOD PROBLEM '

IT is- the duty of the Government, just as far as we are able, to
' maintain economic equilibrium in the dairy industry; but should
the impact of war so dislocate the industry as to cause temporary
periods when loss faces you, it is the duty of every dairyman to stand
by — with that courage which comes from the knowledge that he is a
pert of the world's reserve army that may, at any moment, be called
into battle for our existence and the existence of the next generation

ADDRESS BY

HERBERT HOOVER

UNITED STATES FOOD ADMINISTRATOR

at the

NATIONAL MILK AND DAIRY FARM EXPOSITION

NEW YORK CITY

MAY 23, 1918

F

WASHINGTON

GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

1918

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THE DAIRY AND THE WORLD FOOD PROBLEM.

Upon the dairy industry rests a great part of the responsibility
for keeping the world alive during this war and renewing its vitality
after the war; from the dairymen of this country is required a service
that they are morally drafted to fulfill. How this has come about in
the world situation of the dairy industry I wish to discuss with you.

If you could stand in the middle of Germany to-day and survey
the land to the borders of Europe you would discover its whole
population of 400,000,000 human beings short of food. Where
Germany has overrun its borders millions of people in Poland, Fin-
land, Serbia, Armenia, and Russia are actually dying of starvation,
and other millions are suffering from undernutrition. Still others
of these millions outside the German lines — that is, our allies and
neutrals — are living on the barest margins that will support life
and strength.

GERMANY'S TOLL OF STARVATION.

This, the most appalling and dreadful thing that has come to
humanity since the dawn of civilization, is to me the outstanding
creation of German militarism. Yet the Germans themselves are
not the worst sufferers. They are extorting at the cannon's mouth
the harvest and cattle of the people they have overrun, leaving
them in desolation. I am convinced that if the war were to cease
to-morrow the toll of actual dead from starvation and its attendant
diseases within the German lines would double or treble the 5,000,000
or 6,000,000 of men who have been actually killed by Germany and
her allies in arms. The 10,000,000 people in occupied Belgium and
northern France would have died of starvation had it not been for
the action of the nations at war with Germany in the maintenance for
these people of a pitiable relief. But this is only one part of the
whole story of misery, for the sinking of the world's shipping is
reverberating privation in some direction into every corner of the
globe.

ROBBERY OF THE INNOCENTS.

Of all the food industries of Europe there is none which has been
so stricken by the war as the dairy produce. The human race

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through scores of thousands of years has developed a total depend-
ency upon cattle for the rearing of its young. No greater catastro-
phe can happen to a people than the loss of its dairy herds, for the
total loss of dairy produce means the ultimate extinction of a people.

The German people supported their herd by the import of feed-
stuffs from their neighbors. This being cut off by war, their prod-
uce in meat and milk would have fallen to a low ebb indeed had
they not ' supported themselves to a considerable degree by stealing
the cattle of the populations they have overrun. I have had Polish
and Serbian cattle in German pastures pointed out to me with pride
by German officers. I witnessed for years the stealing of Belgian
and French cattle. In Belgium alone the herd diminished from
1,800,000 to 700,000 in three months of German occupation. At
that point the protests of the Relief Commission held it in check.
But in northern France absolutely all of the cattle were taken before
the Relief Commission arrived. The French men had been drafted
out of this region, and there was therefore an undue proportion of
women and children. There were, in fact, over 800,000 children
under 12 years of age and, in addition, many old people who had
to have the most careful sustenance. One of the first duties of the
relief was to undertake the import of milk in order that these chil-
dren might be saved. We found that in the terror under which
these people lived the average period of breast feeding was under
four months.

We have, therefore, for nearly four years been sending them
American condensed milk, not in single cans but by scores of thou-
sands of tons. There has been scarcely a child born in the north of
France, and many in Belgium, whose continued life has not been
dependent during all this period upon American condensed milk.
Every American would be thrilled could he but see the gratitude
which French mothers daily express over the pitiable ration which
enables their children to survive. This stealing of neighboring cattle
by Germany will now, with Russia at her mercy, go on with an
accelerated pace. Do not let us deceive ourselves that any shortage of
her own cattle will bring the war to an end.

BUTHLESSNESS MENACES US ALSO.

All this is an exhibit of the character of forces from which we are
struggling to purge the world. To do this, therefore, we must con-
cern ourselves daily with the food situation in the allied countries.
Our obligations to them are not only as a matter of humanity but
as a matter of their maintenance in our common struggle. It is
worse than folly to put 5.000,000 of our boys into France if the
civilian population of our allies are not also to be maintained in

strength and morale with our food. We are also interested in the
neutral countries from the point of common humanity.

The allied countries before the war supplied their dairy products
from imports as well as domestic production. Their imports came
from Holland, Denmark, Siberia, Australia, the Argentine, New
Zealand, to some extent from Canada, but comparatively nothing
from the United States. The exports from Holland and Denmark
have been largely cut off by our embargo against the import of feed-
ing stuffs to those nations in order to prevent their also supplying
Germany; Siberia, is, of course, isolated. Australia, New Zealand,
and the Argentine represent journeys which require from two to
three times as much tonnage of ships as do our own market to bring
the same quantities. Dairy products still flow from these remote
markets to the allies, although the transport of grain has been largely
abandoned. But the growing shortage of shipping, the increased
demands to transport the American Army, might at any time ne-
cessitate such final economy in shipping as would drive these demands
upon us.

ALWAYS THE SHIPPING PROBLEM.

The shipping problem has, however, had a wider influence than the
jeopardy of direct imports of dairy products in its effect upon allied
supplies, for their own cattle are much dependent upon the import
of feed from overseas. In the struggle of all European populations to
maintain or increase their bread grains in the face of a shortage in
labor it has been necessary for them to diminish their production
of feed for their animals. By the destruction of shipping it has
been impossible for them to maintain the volume of their feed
imports. In order to reduce this drain on shipping and to find
immediate meat supplies there has been an enormous reduction in the
number of cattle in all of the countries at war. Every nation in
Europe has, however, endeavored to protect its dairy herd; but the
reduction in feeding stuffs has necessitated the placing of cattle on
rations of a more drastic proportion than that of human beings.
The result has been that while the actual number of dairy cattle
shows less proportional diminution than that of the total cattle, the
actual reduction in the milk production is of much larger propor-
tions. I doubt whether to-day the dairy production of Europe as a
whole is 30 per cent of the prewar normal ; that of the allies 50 per
cent of normal.

IF THE WORST HAPPENS.

In consequence of all these forces the dairy supplies of the allies
are much diminished. They have met this situation by drastic reduc-
tion in consumption of dairy products by driving the fresh milk

into the hands of the children and by the substitution of mar-
garine for butter. Their position is not yet acute, and, while it rep-
resents privation of many individuals of their usual food, they are
sacrificing it willingly to the common cause.

During this fiscal year, of the foodstuffs imported by the allies,
approximately 50 per cent in nutritive value will have been supplied
from North America, 50 per cent coming from more remote mar-
kets. Before the war we contributed probably less than 10 per cent.
The shipping situation or the war situation might develop to a point
where all shipping must be withdrawn from the long journeys to
the nearest market — our own. If that became necessary, and if we
could supply the food, the allied food-carrying fleet could be dimin-
ished by 1,500,000 tons and still feed our associates in the war. This
contingency may not arise ; but if it should arise, and we are unpre-
pared to meet this demand for a doubling of the whole of the food
exports from this country, it might result in the losing of the war.
If these ships should by force of necessity come to our shores, they
must be loaded.

RESERVES AGAINST INCREASING LOSSES.

No one knows how long the war will last. If we are to win, we
will with four collateral weapons — men, munitions, ships, and food.
It may require years to win it, and we intend to fight it out on this
line — not if it takes all summer but if it takes all of your lifetime
and mine. We can not anticipate that the animal situation in
Europe will improve during the war. The enormous destruction
must go on until the end. Through the whole of the course of the
war there will be continued destruction of cattle and diminishing
dairy products. There will be steady creeping of jeopardy toward
the children of the allies. North America stands unique in one
great particular in this situation. We are independent of sea trans-
port for feeding stuffs for our animals ; we grow them side by side.
Here lies the great economic difference in these foods between our-
selves and Europe, and here also the one reason why we can and
must be the great final reservoir of supplies.

There falls, therefore, upon us an increasing duty in the provision
of food. To provide supplies we must build up reserves. The first
reserve in meat and dairy products is the maintenance of our herd.
The second is to build up stocks in our warehouses in seasons of
surplus production. If we can maintain our herds and our produc-
tion we can, in any emergency, reduce the consumption of our own
people without damaging our health by margins of such an amount
as will provide for the allies.

FOOD STORES LIKE AMMUNITION.

We are to-day in the season of the largest dairy production and
we have a minor surplus. I do not look upon this with alarm, but
with satisfaction. One result is the increase of our butter and con-
densed milk in storage. I wish it were larger. It is a factor of
safety in the war situation that can not be overestimated. We must
not take risks in war. It may turn out that we get too much
butter into storage. But a general at the front who should find
himself with more shells than were needed to win a battle would
be in a far different state from the general who found himself short
of the necessary amount. Food must be viewed from the new view-
point of ammunition to win the war. Therefore it is up to us as a
part of our national food strategy to accumulate stocks in as large
a degree as possible for any emergency that might come. I believe
that the call for condensed milk, cheese, .and butter supplies for the
allies and our Army and Navy will be on an increasing scale. With
one-third of the world's population on short rations in food, and
most of this one-third with less than one-half of their normal dairy
products, this is no time to begrudge the minor stocks that are
accumulating in our warehouses, nor is this a time to stimulate
unnecessary consumption or waste.

PROBLEMS PECULIAR TO DAIRYING.

Turning for the moment to our domestic problems, there is no
other agricultural industry of such economic complexity. These
complexities arise from the fact that in a considerable part of the
industry the raw material in feeds, the labor, land, and equipment
employed are by-products of other major agricultural operations,
and the commodities produced are all in different circumstances
by-products to each other. This complexity is again confounded by
the fact that the by-product is different in different localities and
at different seasons of the year. For instance, butter and cheese may
be a by-product to city milk production; they are the major product
in creamery regions.

It is an industry to certain products of which attach a peculiarly
large amount of sentimental value; fluid milk is the absolute food-
stuff of our babies and is equally a necessity to the very poor as to the
rich. The consequence is that a rise in the price of milk may pro-
voke more blind and fanatical opposition than any other of the food
industries, not even excepting bread. Again, fluid milk is the most
perishable of all the food commodities and the easiest subjected to
infection and adulteration. It is an industry thus susceptible to
an extraordinary degree to the varying economic winds. The vary-

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ing production of roughage, the varying prices of concentrates, the
lack of balance in prices of milk, butter, and cheese all make the
dairyman's life an exciting if not a merry one.

FOOD CONTBOL A WAR MEASURE.

Prior to the European war our dairy industry was practically a
matter of domestic interest only. Since the war there have been
increasing demands for contribution to the world's shortage of foods.

This is, however, not the only pressure of war on this industry,
because an industry of so complex an economic character is pecul-
iarly subject to the shocks of commercial dislocation that have pene-
trated into all quarters of our national life. It is these war disloca-
tions that gave birth to the Food Administration and it is with these
problems that the Government is called upon to deal. I should like
to emphasize this point. The Food Administration is not a busy-
body, searching for opportunities to interfere in industry and trade.
Its sole preoccupation is, so far as is physically possible, to soften
the shocks of war that the food supplies of our own people and the
allies may be maintained. I can perhaps illustrate this by a review
of only one or two war dislocations which have affected the industry
and the steps taken by the Food Administration to ameliorate it.

DIFFICULTIES OF FEEDING.

At the time of the establishment of the Food Administration, last
summer, we were confronted with a price level in feeding stuffs for
animals that had not been witnessed in the United States since the
Civil War. HeaATy exports to Europe of all character of foodstuffs
during the previous 12 months had drained the country of its sur-
plus production of food supplies, but had also even exhausted our
normal annual carry over from one harvest to another. The conse-
quence was that we entered upon the harvest of 1917 with a less sup-
ply of all kinds of feeding stuffs than at any similar period in 15
years. In fact, had the harvest been a total failure, the human beings
and the animals in this country would scarcely have survived for 60
days. A situation thus exposed is not only pregnant with speculation
and high prices, but positive national danger through lack of sup-
plies to equalize short production in any direction.

WORRYING THROUGH THE WINTER.

The dairyman was caught between two forces — a low price in milk,
held down by inherent opposition of the consumers, and high price
in feeding stuffs and labor. No doubt in the long run, if matters
had been allowed to take their course, the dairy cattle would have
decreased to a point where a shortage in milk supplies would have

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have compelled the necessary increase in milk prices. Some day
these milk prices would have risen to a point that would have again
restimulated the industry and in the course of years the number of
dairy cattle would have been restored and an equilibrium again
established.

These are not times, however, when we can run the risk of sap-
ping the root of our production and await years for its regrowth.
We had all hoped for a considerable time that the unusually large
promise of feeding stuffs last harvest would result in decreased
prices in feeds and that the dairymen's position could have been
saved without material increase in the price of milk to the con-
sumer. We Avorried along until November, when there developed
so great a car shortage by the war demands upon the railways that
it became evident that the crop would not move with sufficient
rapidity to remedy feed prices before spring. We therefore de-
termined that some action would be necessary in protection of the
producer. To make matters worse, you will recollect we came into
an unparalleled period of storm weather, extending from the first of
December until the middle of February, that further paralyzed our
railways and created a situation of practical famine prices of feed-
stuffs in those parts dependent on railway movement. Up to the
middle of February the movement of corn by rail had been
150,000,000 bushels less than normal and of all other feeding stuffs
correspondingly less quantities. There were immense stocks in the
hands of our feeding-stuffs producers, but it could not, through rail-
way strangulation, reach the consumer. We had, therefore, to suffer
from continuously ascending prices, until the railways were able to
offer a freer movement. Within a month after that wider move-
ment began to take place this spring, the price levels of feeding
stuffs began to fall more nearly to ratios comparable with the sup-
plies and the outlook from noAV on is for more reasonable prices.

METHOD OF ASSOCIATION.

Here is, therefore, one issue upon Avhich the dairy industry has
been directly disrupted by the war, and if avc were not to witness a
large selling of dairy cattle for meat some increase in the price of
milk AAras vital or the city milk industry would be imperiled. Pro-
posals to increase these prices brought about conflicts between pro-
ducers, distributors, and consumers, not only of the most acrimonious
character, but in which the law was in\Toked in various directions,
and a practical deadlock resulted.

Furthermore, I had also long held the view that various associa-
tions amongst producers were the foundations upon .which a better
marketing system must arise in the United States in the interest of

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both producer and consumer, and that, growing out of the bitter
quarrels in various parts of the country, the existence of producers'
associations were being endangered. I also realized that any in-
crease in price meant fearful hardship and suffering upon some sec-
tions of the community, and, furthermore, that any interference with
the ordinary course of trade meant a series of incidental reactions,
all of which would be disagreeable enough, but yet none of which
would be so disastrous to the community as no action at all.

THE CHOICE OF EVILS.

In other words, like all cases of interference in the normal course
of supply and demand, it became the choice of evils. The issues at
stake were not only from the point of view of the feeding of our
own populations but the broader issues of our reserves to meet the de-
mands of the allies. With the view to securing as favorable a settle-
ment as possible, that should, as much as possible, be acceptable to
all interests, the Food Administration appointed commissions to
arbitrate a settlement in the larger cities, these commissions em-
bracing representatives of the producer, the consumer, and the dis-
tributor. The decisions of these commissions have been constructive,
have been thoughtful, considerate, and' I believe you will agree
with me that in the long run they are in the interests of both pro-
ducer and consumer. The reactions that have grown out of this situa-
tion are interesting from an economic point of view, and they deserve
close observation for future guidance.

The first and most immediate reaction was that with an increase
in price there was a great fall in consumption, and therefore a dam-
ming back of the surplus on the hands of the producer and dis-
tributor. In other words, the poorer sections of the community spent
the same sum on milk and took a less quantity. There was thus the
heartbreaking reaction of diminished milk feeding of our own chil-
dren. That has been more or less overcome by propaganda in these
sections as to the necessity for milk for children. This has led to a
larger consumption. I am informed that it is now again about
normal, and we wish to continue the insistence as to its superior
value to all other foods for the little ones.

Another reaction of the war has been the decrease in shipping
space that temporarily can be allotted to exports of condensed milk
while the transportation of the American Army is in progress. There
has been some damming back of supplies, but we have taken such
measures as I believe will prevent any great damage.

THE TEST OF RESULTS.

I could review many other minor incidents of the dislocation of
war in this industry, but these will be sufficient to show that we are

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not in normal times. We are not yet through the war. It may extend
for many years. I wish to warn you that unexpected and difficult
and disturbing problems will arise not only so long as the war lasts
but probably for some time after. These dislocations will give rise
to anxiety and criticism. All measures in their amelioration are a
choice of evils. The tests of capacity in administration connected
with this industry must, however, be : First, has our dairy herd been
safeguarded by reasonable returns to the dairyman that he can serve
his purpose of feeding our own people and the allies ? Second, have
the allies been fed? Third, have our own consumers received their
products at prices as reasonable as the situation warrants? Our
herd is intact to-day. The allies have been fed. Reasonable returns
are being received by the dairymen.

About the consumer, our authority extends to his protection from
profiteering. I do not believe any branch of the industry wishes to
profiteer upon this world necessity. We have instituted measures
which I believe have the support of the vast majority of middlemen,
and directed to make profiteering and speculation in these foods by
a minority impossible. Nor do I believe the dairyman has either-
right or wish to receive more than necessities from this situation.

You and I have gone over this Nation and selected our strongest,
our best, those just on the threshold of life and hope, and we have
said to them, "Go to France. Sacrifice your life that justice may
be done in the world, that those of us who stay at home may be
free men." Have you and I any right to say we failed to do our
part because some one did not pay us a profit? You and I will do
our duty as service, not for profit.

FOR FURTHER ECONOMIES.

One difficulty to both our producers and consumers is that our
marketing system in dairy products is inherently a wasteful and
expensive system. Our consumers need relief from the present high
price levels of milk. This relief may partly come through cheaper
feeds, but, it appears to me, must be to a larger degree in reduced
cost of distribution. It is a matter of vital importance to the health
of the children of our poor. The enormous duplication and waste
in present chaotic distribution methods need no detailed description
from me. They have been ventilated by a long train of private and
public investigations and by the distributors themselves.

The careful inquiries and decisions of the various committees
which we established to arbitrate prices as between producers, dis-
tributors, and consumers, have set the charge for distribution at, I
believe, just levels as between all three parties, so far as it can be
done under the present system. Yet here is a commodity in which,

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in New York, from 40 per cent to 60 per cent of the price is ab-
sorbed in distribution. I can see but one remedy that will save the
position between all these vital interests, and that is complete
reorganization of distribution methods. These are matters for local
initiative. I do not believe in Federal paternalism. The interest of
the Federal Government in these matters must extend no further
than assistance to remedy evils of national character through the
incidence of a national war. The inspiration of such reorganization
must come from the producer. It might be said that the consumer
should be joined in this. He should be, but I despair of any con-
sumers' organization getting results. The producer's whole interest
is milk, while it is but one of many interests of the consumer.

That something can be done is evidenced by the work of Prof.
King and his associates at Philadelphia, where the producer to-day
receives about the same price as at New York; yet the consumer
secures his milk for from 1 to 2 cents per quart less.

The distribution of milk to our city population is just as vital as
the distribution of water. To have 10 independent water systems
cumbering our streets would be no more chaotic than our present
milk distribution.

PARAMOUNT NEED OF HANDS.

In maintaining our dairy herds that they may be ready for any
demand, you face one paramount difficulty — that is, labor. More
men will be drafted to war, more will be required to furnish them
munitions. There is only one ultimate solution in this industry;
that is, by the increased efforts of our men and the addditional efforts
of our women. Our women are ready and willing to stand with
our men in this struggle.

Far beyond our domestic difficulties, however, is our world duty.
Parallel with this enormous and continuing destruction in Europe
avc must build our food resources so as to stand ready for any de-
mands upon us by our allies. It is of no purpose to us to send mil-
lions of our best to France if we fail to maintain the strength of their
men, women, and children on our lines of communication. After the
war the time will come when we will need to replenish their herds
from our own cattle. This United States is the last reservoir of
men, the last reservoir of ships, the last reservoir of munitions, and
the last reservoir of food upon which the allied world must depend
if Germany is to be defeated and if we are to be free men.

OUR FINAL OBLIGATIONS.

It therefore devolves upon us to maintain our present great poten-
tial strength in herds, for they can not be reestablished for many

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years if once lost. Not only must they be maintained as a guarantee
to our allies, but they will be vital in the world's regeneration. The
day may yet come when the child life of the world will be in your
hands. I place this before you on the high plane of service to the
world. It is the duty of the Government just so far as we are able
to maintain economic equilibrium in the industry so that it can go
on without hardship to those who engage in it; but should the im-
pact of war so dislocate the industry as to cause temporary periods
when loss faces you, it is the duty of every dairyman to stand by
with that courage that comes from the knowledge that he is a part
of the world's reserve army that may. at any moment, be called into
battle for our existence and the existence of the next generation.
Index E— 40.

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