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ECOSYSTEMS ©
AND HUMAN
WELL-BEING

Biodiversity Synthesis

sy MILLENNIUM ECOSYSTEM ASSESS

Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment Panel

Haron A. Mooney (co-chair),
Stanford University, United States
ANGELA Cropper (co-chair),

The Cropper Foundation, Trinidad
and Tobago

Doris Capistrano, Center for Inter-
national Forestry Research, Indonesia

STEPHEN R. CarrenTER, University
of Wisconsin-Madison, United States

KancuHan Cuopra, Institute of
Economic Growth, India
Partua Dascurma, University of
Cambridge, United Kingdom
Rix Leemans, Wageningen
University, Netherlands

~ Roserr M. May, University of
Oxford, United Kingdom
Prasuu Pinca, Food and
Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations, Italy
Rasuip Hassan, University of
Pretoria, South Africa
Crist1AN SAMPER, Smithsonian
National Museum of Natural History,
United States

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Board
The MA Board represents the users of the findings of the MA process.

Co-chairs
Rosert T. Watson, Chief
Scientist, The World Bank

A.H. Zaxrt, Director, Institute
of Advanced Studies, United
Nations University

Institutional
Representatives

SALVATORE ARICO,

Programme Officer, Division

of Ecological and Earth Sciences,
United Nations Educational,
Scientific and Cultural
Organization

PETER BRIDGEWATER,
Secretary General, Ramsar
Convention on Wetlands

Hama Arsa DI1ALLo,
Executive Secretary, United
Nations Convention to
Combat Desertification

AveEL E.-Bexracy, Director
General, International Center
for Agricultural Research in
Dry Areas, Consultative Group
on International Agricultural
Research

Max Fintayson, Chair, Scien-
tific and Technical Review Panel,
Ramsar Convention on Wetlands

Coin GALBRAITH, Chair,
Scientific Council, Convention
on Migratory Species

Erika Harms, Senior Program
Officer for Biodiversity, United
Nations Foundation

Ropert HEpwortn, Acting
Executive Secretary, Convention
on Migratory Species

Oxav Kyorven, Director,
Energy and Environment Group,
United Nations Development
Programme

KersTIN LEITNER, Assistant
Director-General, Sustainable
Development and Healthy
Environments, World Health
Organization

ALFRED OTENG-YEBOAH,
Chair, Subsidiary Body on
Scientific, Technical and Techno-
logical Advice, Convention

on Biological Diversity

_ Curistian Prip, Chair,

idiary Body on Scientific,
cal and Technological

Ramos, Biodiversity

Tuomas Rosswa tt, Executive
Director, International Council
for Science - ICSU

AcHIM STEINER, Director
General, IUCN - The World

Conservation Union

Ha.ipor THoRGEIRSSON,
Coordinator, United Nations
Framework Convention on

Climate Change

Kxaus TOpFeErR, Executive
Director, United Nations
Environment Programme

Jerr Tscuir ey, Chief,
Environmental and Natural
Resources Service, Research,
Extension and Training
Division, Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United
Nations

RiccaRrDo VALENTINI, Chair,
Committee on Science and
Technology, United Nations
Convention to Combat
Desertification

HaMDALLAH ZEDAN,
Executive Secretary, Convention
on Biological Diversity

At-large Members
FERNANDO ALMEIDA, Executive
President, Business Council for
Sustainable Development-Brazil

PHOEBE BaRNarD, Global
Invasive Species Programme,
South Africa

Gorpana BELTRAM,
Undersecretary, Ministry of
the Environment and Spatial
Planning, Slovenia

Detar Brasco, Former
Secretary General, Ramsar Con-
vention on Wetlands, Spain

ANTony Buremans, Chairman,
Unilever N.V., Netherlands

EsTHER CaMac-RaMIREZ,
Asociacion Ixd Ca Vad de
Desarrollo e Informacién
Indigena, Costa Rica

ANGELA CROPPER (ex officio),
President, The Cropper Founda-
tion, Trinidad and Tobago

Partua Daseurta, Professor,
Faculty of Economics and
Politics, University of
Cambridge, United Kingdom

José Maria FIcurreEs,
Fundacién Costa Rica para el
Desarrollo Sostenible, Costa Rica

FreD Fortier, Indigenous
Peoples’ Biodiversity Information
Network, Canada

Monwamep H.A. Hassan,
Executive Director, Third World
Academy of Sciences for the
Developing World, Italy

JonaTHAN Las, President,
World Resources Institute,
United States

Waneart MaarHal,
Vice Minister for Environment,
Kenya

Paut Maro, Professor,
Department of Geography,
University of Dar es
Salaam, Tanzania

Haroip A. Mooney

(ex officio), Professor, Department
of Biological Sciences, Stanford
University, United States

Marina Morovitova, Faculty
of Geography, Laboratory of
Moscow Region, Russia

M.K. Prasap, Environment
Centre of the Kerala Sastra
Sahitya Parishad, India

Watter V. Rep, Director,
Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment, Malaysia and
United States

Henry Scuacut, Past
Chairman of the Board, Lucent
Technologies, United States

PETER JOHAN SCHEI,
Director, The Fridtjof Nansen
Institute, Norway

IsMAIL SERAGELDIN, President,
Bibliotheca Alexandrina, Egypt

Davin Suzuki, Chair, David
Suzuki Foundation, Canada

M.S. SwAMINATHAN,
Chairman, MS Swaminathan
Research Foundation, India

José Gatizta TunpIs1,
President, International Institute

of Ecology, Brazil

AXEL WENBLAD, Vice President
Environmental Affairs, Skanska
AB, Sweden

Xu Guannua, Minister,
Ministry ‘of Science and
Technology, China

MuwHammap Younus,
Managing Director, Grameen
Bank, Bangladesh

QAI.

ECOSYSTEMS
AND HUMAN
WELL-BEING

Biodiversity Synthesis

A Report of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Synthesis Team Co-chairs
ANANTHA Kumar DuralappAH, SHAHID NAEEM

Synthesis Team Members

Tunp1 Acarpy, Nevitie J. AsH, H. Davip Cooper, Sanpra Diaz, Dante P. FarrH, Georcina Mace,
Jerrrey A. McNeety, Haroip A. Mooney, ALFRED A. OTENG-YEBOAH, HENRIQUE MIGUEL PEREIRA,
STEPHEN Po.asky, CHRISTIAN Prip, WALTER V. Rep, CrisTiAN SAMPER, PETER JOHAN SCHEI,

Rosert SCHOLES, FREDERIK SCHUTYSER, ALBERT VAN JAARSVELD

Extended Writing Team
MA Coorprnatine Leap AuTHoRs, LEAD AUTHORS, CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS, AND SUB-GLOBAL
ASSESSMENT COORDINATORS

Review Editors
José SaRuKHAN AND ANNE WHYTE (co-cHarRs) AND MA Boarp oF Review Epirors

Suggested citation:

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Biodiversity Synthesis.
World Resources Institute, Washington, DC.

All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions. No part of this book
may be reproduced in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the publisher: World
Resources Institute, 10 G Street NE, Suite 800, Washington DC, 20002, USA.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data.

Ecosystems and human well-being : biodiversity synthesis / Millennium Ecosystem Assessment.

p. cm. — (The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment series)

ISBN 1-56973-588-3

1. Human ecology. 2. Ecosystem management. 3. Biological diversity. I. Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment (Program) II. Series.

GF50.E28 2005

333.95’ 16--dc22

2005013229

Printed on recycled, acid-free paper &)
Book design by Dever Designs

Manufactured in the United States of America

ss
CONTENTS

Foreword ii
Preface iii
Reader's Guide Vv
Key Messages vi

Summary for Decision-makers 1
Finding 1: Biodiversity Change in the Past and Future 2
Finding 2: Gains and Losses from Biodiversity Change 5
Finding 3: The Value of Biodiversity 6
Finding 4: Causes of Biodiversity Change 8
Finding 5: Actions to Conserve Biodiversity and Promote Sustainable Use 10
Finding 6: Prospects for Significantly Reducing Biodiversity Loss 14

Key Questions on Biodiversity in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 17
1. Biodiversity: What is it, where is it, and why is it important? 18
2. Why is biodiversity loss a concern? 30
3. What are the current trends and drivers of biodiversity loss? 42
4. What is the future for biodiversity and ecosystem services under plausible scenarios? 60
5. What response options can conserve biodiversity and promote human well-being? 69

6. What are the prospects for reducing the rate of loss of biodiversity by 2010 or beyond
and what are the implications for the Convention on Biological Diversity? Wal

Appendix A. Abbreviations, Acronyms, and Figure Sources 83
Appendix B. Assessment Report Tables of Contents 85

FOREWORD

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment set out to assess the consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being
and to establish the scientific basis for actions needed to enhance the conservation and sustainable use of ecosystems
and their contributions to human well-being. Biological diversity plays a critical role in underpinning ecosystem ser-
vices. Governments supported the establishment of the MA through decisions taken by the Convention on Biological
Diversity and other international conventions. The MA was initiated in 2001 under the auspices of the United Nations
and governed by a multistakeholder board that included representatives of international institutions, governments,
indigenous peoples, NGOs, and business. The secretariat was coordinated by the United Nations Environment Pro-
gramme. More than 1,360 scientists from 95 countries contributed to the assessment.

This report presents a synthesis and integration of the findings concerning biodiversity contained in the reports
of the four MA Working Groups (Condition and Trends, Scenarios, Responses, and Sub-global Assessments). From
the outset, the MA was designed to meet the needs of the Convention on Biological Diversity, among other users.
The Conference of the Parties welcomed the contribution of the MA to the assessment work of the Convention. It
encouraged Parties to participate in the MA and nominated the Chair of the Subsidiary Body on Scientific, Technical,
and Technological Advice and the Executive Secretary to be represented on the MA Board. Parties to the CBD have
provided review comments on underlying chapters of the assessment as well as this synthesis report. In addition, the
penultimate draft of the synthesis report was presented to the tenth meeting of SBSTTA in February 2005, and the
comments made there were taken into account in its finalization. As requested by the Conference of the Parties,
SBSTTA will consider the final products of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment at its eleventh meeting—including
this synthesis report on biodiversity—in order to prepare recommendations to the Conference of the Parties concern-
ing the implications of the findings for the future work of the Convention.

This report would not have been possible without the extraordinary commitment of the more than 2,000 authors
and reviewers worldwide who contributed their knowledge, creativity, time, and enthusiasm to the development of the
assessment. We would like to express our gratitude to the Synthesis Team that prepared this report and to the MA
Assessment Panel, Coordinating Lead Authors, Lead Authors, Contributing Authors, Board of Review Editors, and
Expert Reviewers who contributed to this process, and we wish to acknowledge the in-kind support of their institu-
tions, which enabled their participation. We would also like to thank the current and past members of the MA Board
(and their alternates), the members of the MA Exploratory Steering Committee, the Convention on Biological Diver-
sity secretariat staff, and the MA secretariat staff, interns, and volunteers for their contributions to this process.

We are extremely grateful to the donors that provided major financial support for the MA: Global Environment
Facility; United Nations Foundation; The David and Lucile Packard Foundation; The World Bank; Consultative
Group on International Agricultural Research; United Nations Environment Programme; Government of China;
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Government of Norway; Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; and the Swedish International
Biodiversity Programme. The full list of organizations that provided financial support to the MA is available at www.
MAweb.org.

We hope thar this report will prove useful to all those concerned with the Convention on Biological Diversity and
with its objectives—the conservation and sustainable use of biological diversity and the fair and equitable sharing of
benefits arising from the use of genetic resources.

ESD fibac — A5abathafont 8 : e

Dr. Rosert T. WATSON Dr. A.H. Zakri HaMDALLaH ZEDAN

MA Board Co-chair MA Board Co-chair Executive Secretary

Chief Scientist, The World Bank Director, Institute for Advanced Convention on Biological
Studies, United Nations University Diversity

tl Ecosystems anp Human WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

PREFACE

The goal of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment is to establish the scientific basis for actions needed to enhance the
conservation and sustainable use of ecosystems and their contributions to meeting human needs. Because the basis of
all ecosystems is a dynamic complex of plants, animals, and microorganisms, biological diversity (or biodiversity, for
short) has been a key component of the MA. The MA recognizes that interactions exist between people, biodiversity,
and ecosystems. That is, changing human conditions drive, both directly and indirectly, changes in biodiversity,
changes in ecosystems, and ultimately changes in the services ecosystems provide. Thus biodiversity and human well-
being are inextricably linked. (See Figure A.) The MA also recognizes that many other factors independent of changes
in biodiversity affect the human condition and that biodiversity is influenced by many natural forces that are not asso-

ciated with humans.

. MILLENNIUM EcosysTEM ASSESSMENT CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OF INTERACTIONS BETWEEN

Broprversity, EcosysTEM SERVICES, HUMAN WELL-BEING, AND DRIVERS OF CHANGE

Changes in drivers that indi-
rectly affect biodiversity, such
as population, technology, and
lifestyle (upper right corner),
can lead to changes in drivers
directly affecting biodiversity,
such as the catch of fish or
the application of fertilizers to
increase food production
(lower right corner). These
result in changes to biodiver-
sity and to ecosystem ser-
vices (lower left corner),
thereby affecting human well-
being. These interactions can
take place at more than one
scale and can cross scales.
For example, international
demand for timber may lead
to a regional loss of forest
cover, which increases flood
magnitude along a local
stretch of a river. Similarly, the
interactions can take place
across different time scales.
Actions can be taken either to
respond to negative changes
or to enhance positive
changes at almost all points in
this framework. Local scales
refer to communities or eco-
systems and regional scales
refer to nations or biomes, all
of which are nested within
global scale processes.

Human well-being |
and poverty reduction

BASIC MATERIAL FOR A GOOD LIFE
HEALTH

GOOD SOCIAL RELATIONS
SECURITY

FREEDOM OF CHOICE AND ACTION

Ecosystem services

= REGULATING
(e.g., climate regulation, water, and disease)

LIFE ON EARTH - BIODIVERSITY

> Cc Strategies and interventions

Indirect drivers of change
DEMOGRAPHIC

ECONOMIC (e.g., globalization, trade,

market, and policy framework)

SOCIOPOLITICAL (e.g., governance,
ES institutional and legal framework)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

CULTURAL AND RELIGIOUS (e.g., beliefs,
consumption choices)

~ F

Direct drivers of change
CHANGES IN LOCAL LAND USE AND COVER
SPECIES INTRODUCTION OR REMOVAL
TECHNOLOGY ADAPTATION AND USE

EXTERNAL INPUTS (e.g., fertilizer use,
pest control, and irrigation)

HARVEST AND RESOURCE CONSUMPTION
CLIMATE CHANGE

NATURAL, PHYSICAL, AND BIOLOGICAL
DRIVERS (e.g., evolution, volcanoes)

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

EcosysTEMsS AND HUMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis TT}

Human well-being is the central focus for the MA, but biodiversity and ecosystems also have intrinsic value. People
make decisions concerning ecosystems based on considerations of well-being as well as intrinsic value.
A full assessment of the interactions between people and biodiversity requires a multiscale approach, as this better

reflects the multiscale nature of decision-making, allows the examination of driving forces from outside particular
regions, and provides a means of examining the differential impact of changes in biodiversity, ecosystem services, and
policy responses on different regions and groups within regions. The MA thus consists of a global assessment and

33 sub-global assessments. (See Figure B.)

3. MA SuB-GLOBAL ASSESSMENTS

Eighteen sub-global assessments were approved as components of the MA. These were not designed to provide a scientific sample
of any feature of ecosystems or human well-being. Instead, the choice of assessment locations was determined by a combination of
interest in undertaking the assessment, interest in using the findings, and availability of resources to undertake the assessment.
These assessments thus were primarily designed to meet needs of decision-makers in the locations where they were made, but they
also informed the global MA findings with information and perspectives from the sub-global scale and vice versa. The MA also drew
on information from 15 other sub-global assessments affiliated with the MA that met a subset of these criteria or were at earlier
stages in development.

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Northern Lakes «; am id s ee Woe Asia ‘a w
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(PIMAy@ Sp 2D (MAWEC) >
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‘ee | a Egypt @) + Himalayas@ ad Himalayas
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A ~~ @ Northern range TFMa SS =e jownstfeam
Coffee-growing region @ Trinidad ee : \ Mekang ~ =
Colombia ae Se aa TEM? @ ‘we , weaicuites
Ty eee, ‘ yy ~~ ; 2
TEMe an) Indonesia @., _ a? o.-
Vilcanota region @ 4 yi Wafura ania A a =
Rem } Timor Seas Aa Fii®
[ y Northern
San Pedro de Atacama @ { Sao Paulo Australia
Chile Sf Brazil y floodplains
a =
sy Southern Africa @ Approved assessments Weg
* Pampas (SAFMA) ® : =
Argentina Associated assessments Y Sf F
Oss,
Tropical Forest Margins Trade, poverty, and environment: sites in Chile, China, India, Madagascar, Mexico, South Africa, and Viet Nam

IV EcosystEMs anD HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

READER’S GUIDE

This report synthesizes findings from the MA global and sub-global assessments on biodiversity and human well-
being. All of the MA authors and Review Editors have contributed to this draft through their contributions to the
underlying assessment chapters on which this material is based.

Five additional synthesis reports were prepared for ease of use by other audiences: general overview, UNCCD
(desertification), Ramsar Convention (wetlands), business, and the health sector. Each MA sub-global assessment
will also produce additional reports to meet the needs of its own audience. The full technical assessment reports of
the four MA Working Groups will be published in mid-2005 by Island Press. All printed materials of the assess-
ment, along with core data and a glossary of terminology used in the technical reports, will be available on the
Internet at www.MAweb.org. Appendix A lists the acronyms and abbreviations used in this report and includes
additional information on sources for some of the Figures. Throughout this report, dollar signs indicate U.S. dollars
and tons mean metric tons.

References that appear in parentheses in the body of this synthesis report are to the underlying chapters in the
full technical assessment reports of each Working Group. (A list of the assessment report chapters is provided in
Appendix B.) To assist the reader, citations to the technical volumes generally specify sections of chapters or specific
Boxes, Tables, or Figures, based on final drafts of the chapter. Some chapter subsection numbers may change during
final copyediting, however, after this report has been printed.

In this report, the following words have been used where appropriate to indicate judgmental estimates of cer-
tainty, based on the collective judgment of the authors, using the observational evidence, modeling results, and
theory that they have examined: very certain (98% or greater probability), high certainty (85-98% probability),
medium certainty (65-85% probability), low certainty (52-65% probability), and very uncertain (50-52%
probability). In other instances, a qualitative scale to gauge the level of scientific understanding is used: well
established, established but incomplete, competing explanations, and speculative. Each time these terms are
used they appear in italics.

Ecosystems AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis V

KEY MESSAGES

= Biodiversity benefits people through more than just its contribution to material welfare and livelihoods.
Biodiversity contributes to security, resiliency, social relations, health, and freedom of choices and actions.

= Changes in biodiversity due to human activities were more rapid in the past 50 years than at any time in human
history, and the drivers of change that cause biodiversity loss and lead to changes in ecosystem services are either
steady, show no evidence of declining over time, or are increasing in intensity. Under the four plausible future
scenarios developed by the MA, these rates of change in biodiversity are projected to continue, or to accelerate.

= Many people have benefited over the last century from the conversion of natural ecosystems to human-dominated
ecosystems and from the exploitation of biodiversity. At the same time, however, these gains have been achieved
at growing costs in the form of losses in biodiversity, degradation of many ecosystem services, and the exacerba-

tion of poverty for other groups of people.

= The most important direct drivers of biodiversity loss and ecosystem service changes are habitat change (such as
land use changes, physical modification of rivers or water withdrawal from rivers, loss of coral reefs, and damage
to sea floors due to trawling), climate change, invasive alien species, overexploitation, and pollution.

= Improved valuation techniques and information on ecosystem services demonstrate that although many
individuals benefit from biodiversity loss and ecosystem change, the costs borne by society of such changes are often
higher. Even in instances where knowledge of benefits and costs is incomplete, the use of the precautionary approach
may be warranted when the costs associated with ecosystem changes may be high or the changes irreversible.

B To achieve greater progress toward biodiversity conservation to improve human well-being and reduce poverty,
it will be necessary to strengthen response options that are designed with the conservation and sustainable use of
biodiversity and ecosystem services as the primary goal. These responses will not be sufficient, however, unless the
indirect and direct drivers of change are addressed and the enabling conditions for implementation of the full
suite of responses are established.

= Tiade-offs between achieving the 2015 targets of the Millennium Development Goals and the 2010 target of
reducing the rate of biodiversity loss are likely, although there are also many potential synergies between the various
internationally agreed targets relating to biodiversity, environmental sustainability, and development. Coordi-
nated implementation of these goals and targets would facilitate the consideration of trade-offs and synergies.

= An unprecedented effort would be needed to achieve by 2010 a significant reduction in the rate of biodiversity
loss at all levels.

m= Short-term goals and targets are not sufficient for the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity and
ecosystems. Given the characteristic response times for political, socioeconomic, and ecological systems, longer-
term goals and targets (such as for 2050) are needed to guide policy and actions.

= Improved capability to predict the consequences of changes in drivers for biodiversity, ecosystem functioning,
and ecosystem services, together with improved measures of biodiversity, would aid decision-making at all levels.

= Science can help ensure that decisions are made with the best available information, but ultimately the future

of biodiversity will be determined by society.

a: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment was carried out between 2001 and 2005 to assess the consequences
of ecosystem change for human well-being and to analyze options available to enhance the conservation and
sustainable use of ecosystems and their contributions to human well-being. The MA responds to requests for
information received through the Convention on Biological Diversity and other international conventions (the
United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands, and the Conven-
tion on Migratory Species) and is also designed to meet the needs of other stakeholders, including business, civil
society, and indigenous peoples. It was carried out by approximately 1,360 experts from 95 countries through
four Working Groups and encompassed both a global assessment and 33 sub-global assessments. An indepen-

dent Review Board has overseen an extensive review by governments and experts. Each Working Group and

each sub-global assessment has produced detailed technical assessment reports.

This report synthesizes and integrates findings related to bio-
logical diversity (or biodiversity, for short) from the four MA
Working Groups. Biodiversity is defined by the MA as the vari-
ability among living organisms from all sources, including terres-
trial, marine, and other aquatic ecosystems and the ecological
complexes of which they are part. The material presented in this
report and in the full MA is an assessment of the current state of
knowledge. The purpose of the assessment is to:

B® provide an authoritative source of information,

@ mobilize knowledge and information to address specific

policy questions,

m clarify where there are areas of broad consensus within the

scientific community and where important controversies

remain, and

lf provide insights that emerge from a broad review of knowl-

edge that might not be apparent in individual studies.

Consistent with the ecosystem approach (see CBD Decision
V/6), the MA acknowledges that people are integral parts of
ecosystems. That is, a dynamic interaction exists between people
and other parts of ecosystems, with the changing human condi-
tion serving to drive, both directly and indirectly, change in
ecosystems. However, changes in ecosystems cause changes in
human well-being. At the same time, many other factors
independent of the environment change the human condition,

and many natural forces influence ecosystems. The MA places
human well-being as the central focus for assessment, while
recognizing that biodiversity and ecosystems also have intrinsic
value—value of something in and for itself, irrespective of its
utility for someone else—and that people make decisions
concerning ecosystems based on consideration of their own
well-being and that of others as well as on intrinsic value.

Biodiversity can be described as “the diversity of life on Earth”
and is essential for the functioning of ecosystems that underpin
the provisioning of ecosystem services that ultimately affect
human well being. Although described simply, in practice what
biodiversity encompasses can be complex, and there are concep-
tual pitfalls that need to be avoided. (See Box 1.) For example,
because biodiversity has many components—including the diver-
sity of all organisms, be they plants, animals, or microorganisms,
the diversity within and among species and populations, and the
diversity of ecosystems—no single component, whether genes,
species, or ecosystems, is consistently a good indicator of overall
biodiversity, as the components can vary independently.

The MA focuses on the linkages between ecosystems and
human well-being and in particular on “ecosystem services —the
benefits people obtain from ecosystems. These include provision-
ing services such as food, water, timber, and fiber; regulating
services such as the regulation of climate, floods, disease, wastes,

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 1

Different interpretations of several important attributes of the con-
cept of biodiversity can lead to confusion in understanding both sci-
entific findings and their policy implications. Specifically, the value
of the diversity of genes, species, or ecosystems per se is often
confused with the value of a particular component of that diversity.
Species diversity in and of itself, for example, is valuable because
the presence of a variety of species helps to increase the capabil-
ity of an ecosystem to be resilient in the face of a changing envi-
ronment. At the same time, an individual component of that diver-
sity, such as a particular food plant species, may be valuable as a
biological resource. The consequences of changes in biodiversity
for people can stem both from a change in the diversity per se and
a change in a particular component of biodiversity. Each of these
aspects of biodiversity deserves its own attention from decision-
makers, and each often requires its own (albeit connected)
management goals and policies.

Second, because biodiversity refers to diversity at multiple
scales of biological organization (genes, populations, species, and
ecosystems) and can be considered at any geographic scale (local,
regional, or global), it is generally important to specify the specific
level of organization and scale of concern. For example, the intro-
duction of widespread weedy species to a continent such as Africa
will increase the species diversity of Africa (more species present)
while decreasing ecosystem diversity globally (since the ecosys-
tems in Africa then become more similar in species composition
to ecosystems elsewhere due to the presence of the cosmopolitan
species). Because of the multiple levels of organization and multiple
geographic scales involved, any single indicator, such as species
diversity, is generally a poor indicator for many aspects of
biodiversity that may be of concern for policy-makers.

These two considerations are also helpful in interpreting the
meaning of biodiversity “loss.” For the purposes of assessing prog-
ress toward the 2010 targets, the Convention on Biological Diver-
sity defines biodiversity loss to be “the long-term or permanent
qualitative or quantitative reduction in components of biodiversity
and their potential to provide goods and services, to be measured
at global, regional and national levels” (CBD COP VII/30). Under
this definition, biodiversity can be lost either if the diversity per se
is reduced (such as through the extinction of some species) or if
the potential of the components of diversity to provide a particular
service is diminished (such as through unsustainable harvest). The
homogenization of biodiversity—that is, the spread of invasive
alien species around the world—thus also represents a loss of
biodiversity at a global scale (since once-distinct groups of species
in different parts of the world become more similar) even though
the diversity of species in particular regions may actually increase
because of the arrival of new species.

eee

BIODIVERSITY AND Its Loss—
AvoIDING CONCEPTUAL PITFALLS

and water quality; cultural services such as recreation, aesthetic
enjoyment, and spiritual fulfillment; and supporting services
such as soil formation, photosynthesis, and nutrient cycling. The
MA assesses the indirect and direct drivers of change in ecosys-
tems and their services, the current condition of those services,
and how changes in ecosystem services have affected human well-
being. It uses a broad definition of human well-being, examining
how ecosystem changes influence income and material needs,
health, good social relations, security, and freedom of choice and
action. The MA developed four global scenarios exploring plausi-
ble future changes in drivers, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and
human well-being. (See Box 2.) Finally, the assessment examined
the strengths and weaknesses of various response options that
have been used to manage ecosystem services and identified
promising opportunities for enhancing human well-being while
conserving ecosystems.

What is the problem?

Finding #1. Human actions are fundamentally, and to a
significant extent irreversibly, changing the diversity of life
on Earth, and most of these changes represent a loss of biodi-
versity. Changes in important components of biological
diversity were more rapid in the past 50 years than at any
time in human history. Projections and scenarios indicate
that these rates will continue, or accelerate, in the future.

Virtually all of Earth’s ecosystems have now been dramatically
transformed through human actions. More land was converted to
cropland in the 30 years after 1950 than in the 150 years between
1700 and 1850. Between 1960 and 2000, reservoir storage capac-
ity quadrupled, and as a result the amount of water stored behind
large dams is estimated to be three to six times the amount of
water flowing through rivers at any one time. Some 35% of man-
groves have been lost in the last two decades in countries where
adequate data are available (encompassing about half of the total
mangrove area). Already 20% of known coral reefs have been
destroyed and another 20% degraded in the last several decades.
Although the most rapid changes in ecosystems are now taking
place in developing countries, industrial countries historically
experienced comparable changes.

Over half of the 14 biomes that the MA assessed have experi-
enced a 20-50% conversion to human use, with temperate and
Mediterranean forests and temperate grasslands being the most
affected (approximately three quarters of these biome’s native
habitat has been replaced by cultivated lands).' In the last 50
years, rates of conversion have been highest in tropical and sub-
tropical dry forests.

Globally, the net rate of conversion of some ecosystems has
begun to slow, although in some instances this is because little
habitat remains for further conversion. Generally, opportunities

' Biomes represent broad habitat and vegetation types, span across biogeographic realms, and are useful units for assessing global biodiversity and ecosystem services
because they stratify the globe into ecologically meaningful and contrasting classes. Throughout this report, and elsewhere in the MA, the 14 biomes of the WWF terrestrial

biome classification are used, based on WF terrestrial ecoregions (C4.2.2).

2 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

MA ScENARIOS

The MA developed four scenarios to explore plausible futures for
ecosystems and human well-being based on different assumptions
about driving forces of change and their possible interactions:

Global Orchestration—This scenario depicts a globally connected
society that focuses on global trade and economic liberalization
and takes a reactive approach to ecosystem problems but that also
takes strong steps to reduce poverty and inequality and to invest
in public goods such as infrastructure and education. Economic
growth in this scenario is the highest of the four scenarios, while it
is assumed to have the lowest population in 2050.

Order from Strength—This scenario represents a regionalized
and fragmented world, concerned with security and protection,
emphasizing primarily regional markets, paying little attention to
public goods, and taking a reactive approach to ecosystem prob-
lems. Economic growth rates are the lowest of the scenarios (par-
ticularly low in developing countries) and decrease with time, while
population growth is the highest.

Adapting Mosaic—n this scenario, regional watershed-scale eco-
systems are the focus of political and economic activity. Local insti-
tutions are strengthened and local ecosystem management strate-
gies are common; societies develop a strongly proactive approach
to the management of ecosystems. Economic growth rates are
somewhat low initially but increase with time, and population in
2050 is nearly as high as in Order from Strength.

TechnoGarden—This scenario depicts a globally connected
world relying strongly on environmentally sound technology, using
highly managed, often engineered, ecosystems to deliver ecosys-
tem services, and taking a proactive approach to the management
of ecosystems in an effort to avoid problems. Economic growth is
relatively high and accelerates, while population in 2050 is in the
mid-range of the scenarios.

The scenarios are not predictions; instead they were devel-
oped to explore the unpredictable features of change in drivers and
ecosystem services. No scenario represents business as usual,

for further expansion of cultivation are diminishing in many
regions of the world as the finite proportion of land suitable
for intensive agriculture continues to decline. Increased agricul-
tural productivity is also diminishing pressures for agricultural
expansion. Since 1950, cropland areas in North America,
Europe, and China have stabilized, and they even decreased in
Europe and China. Cropland areas in the former Soviet Union
have decreased since 1960. Within temperate and boreal zones,
forest cover increased by approximately 3 million hectares per
year in the 1990s, although about 40% of this increase consisted
of forest plantations.

Across a range of taxonomic groups, the population size or
range (or both) of the majority of species is declining. Studies
of amphibians globally, African mammals, birds in agricultural
lands, British butterflies, Caribbean and IndoPacific corals, and
commonly harvested fish species show declines in populations of

although all begin from current conditions and trends.

Both quantitative models and qualitative analyses were used to
develop the scenarios. For some drivers (such as land use change
and carbon emissions) and ecosystem services (water withdraw-
als, food production), quantitative projections were calculated using
established, peer-reviewed global models. Other drivers (such as
rates of technological change and economic growth), ecosystem
services (particularly supporting and cultural services, such as soil
formation and recreational opportunities), and human well-being indi-
cators (such as human health and social relations) were estimated
qualitatively. In general, the quantitative models used for these sce-
narios addressed incremental changes but failed to address thresh-
olds, risk of extreme events, or impacts of large, extremely costly,
or irreversible changes in ecosystem services. These phenomena
were addressed qualitatively by considering the risks and impacts
of large but unpredictable ecosystem changes in each scenario.

Three of the scenarios—Global Orchestration, Adapting Mosaic,
and TechnoGarden—incorporate significant changes in policies
aimed at addressing sustainable development challenges. In Global
Orchestration trade barriers are eliminated, distorting subsidies
are removed, and a major emphasis is placed on eliminating pov-
erty and hunger. In Adapting Mosaic, by 2010, most countries are
spending close to 13% of their GDP on education (as compared to
an average of 3.5% in 2000), and institutional arrangements to pro-
mote transfer of skills and knowledge among regional groups prolif-
erate. In TechnoGarden policies are put in place to provide payment
to individuals and companies that provide or maintain the provision
of ecosystem services. For example, in this scenario, by 2015,
roughly 50% of European agriculture, and 10% of North American
agriculture is aimed at balancing the production of food with the
production of other ecosystem services. Under this scenario, sig-
nificant advances occur in the development of environmental tech-
nologies to increase production of services, create substitutes, and
reduce harmful trade-offs.

the majority of species. Exceptions include species that have been
protected in reserves, that have had their particular threats (such
as overexploitation) eliminated, and that tend to thrive in land-
scapes that have been modified by human activity. Marine and
freshwater ecosystems are relatively less studied than terrestrial
systems, so overall biodiversity is poorly understood; for those
species that are well studied, biodiversity loss has occurred
through population extirpation and constricted distributions.

Over the past few hundred years, humans have increased
species extinction rates by as much as 1,000 times background
rates that were typical over Earth’s history. (See Figure 1.) There
are approximately 100 well-documented extinctions of birds,

EcosysteMs AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 3

“Distant past’ refers to average
extinction rates as calculated from
the fossil record. “Recent past” refers
to extinction rates calculated from
known extinctions of species (lower
estimate) or known extinctions plus
“possibly extinct” species (upper
bound). A species is considered to
be “possibly extinct” if it is believed
to be extinct by experts but extensive
surveys have not yet been undertaken
to confirm its disappearance. 100
“Future” extinctions are model-

derived estimates using a variety

of techniques, including species- 40
area models, rates at which species
are shifting to increasingly more
threatened categories, extinction
probabilities associated with the
IUCN categories of threat, impacts
of projected habitat loss on species
currently threatened with habitat
loss, and correlation of species loss
with energy consumption. The time
frame and species groups involved
differ among the “future” estimates,
but in general refer to either future
loss of species based on the level
of threat that exists today or current
and future loss of species as a result

100 000
Distant past
(fossil record)

10 000

1000

For every thousand
mammal species, less
than one went extinct
every millennium

, \

Mammals

Marine
species

1. Species ExTINcTION Rares (adapted from C4 Fig 4.22)

Mammals Birds Amphibians

Extinctions per thousand species per millennium

“Recent past
(known extinctions)
Projected future
extinction rate is

more than ten times
higher than current rate

Current extinction rate
is up to one thousand
times higher than the
fossil record

Long-term average
extinction rate

All species

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

of habitat changes taking place roughly from 1970 to 2050. Estimates based on the fossil record are low certainty. The lower-bound estimates for
known extinctions are high certainty, while the upper-bound estimates are medium certainty; lower-bound estimates for modeled extinctions are low

certainty, and upper-bound estimates are speculative.

mammals, and amphibians over the last 100 years—a rate 100
times higher than background rates. If less well documented but
highly probable extinctions are included, the rate is more than
1,000 times higher than background rates.

The distribution of species on Earth is becoming more
homogenous. By homogenous, we mean that the differences
between the set of species at one location and the set of species at
another location are, on average, diminishing. Two factors are
responsible for this trend. First, species unique to particular
regions are experiencing higher rates of extinction. Second, high
rates of invasion by and introductions of species into new ranges
are accelerating in pace with growing trade and faster transporta-
tion. Currently, documented rates of species introductions in
most regions are greater than documented rates of extinction,
which can lead to anomalous, often transient increases in local
diversity. The consequences of homogenization depend on the
aggressiveness of the introduced species and the services they

4 EcosystTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

either bring (such as when introduced for forestry or agriculture)
or impair (such as when loss of native species means loss of
options and biological insurance).

Between 10% and 50% of well-studied higher taxonomic
groups (mammals, birds, amphibians, conifers, and cycads) are
currently threatened with extinction, based on [UCN—World
Conservation Union criteria for threats of extinction. Some
12% of bird species, 23% of mammals, and 25% of conifers are
currently threatened with extinction. In addition, 32% of
amphibians are threatened with extinction, but information is
more limited and this may be an underestimate. Higher levels of
threat (52%) have been found in the cycads, a group of evergreen
palm-like plants. Aquatic (including both marine and freshwater)
organisms, however, have not been tracked to the same degree as
terrestrial ones, masking what may be similarly alarming threats
of extinction (low certainty).

Genetic diversity has declined globally, particularly among
domesticated species. Since 1960 there has been a fundamental
shift in the pattern of intra-species diversity in farmers’ fields and

farming systems as a result of the “Green Revolution.” Intensifi-
cation of agricultural systems, coupled with specialization by
plant breeders and the harmonizing effects of globalization, has
led to a substantial reduction in the genetic diversity of domesti-
cated plants and animals in agricultural systems. Such declines in
genetic diversity lower the resilience and adaptability of domesti-
cated species. Some of these on-farm losses of crop genetic diver-
sity have been partially offset by the maintenance of genetic
diversity in seed banks. In addition to cultivated systems, the
extinction of species and loss of unique populations (including
commercially important marine fishes) that has taken place has
resulted in the loss of unique genetic diversity contained in those
species and populations. This loss reduces overall fitness and
adaptive potential, and it limits the prospects for recovery of
species whose populations are reduced to low levels.

All scenarios explored in the Millennium Ecosystem Assess-
ment project continuing rapid conversion of ecosystems in the
first half of the twenty-first century. Roughly 10-20% (low to
medium certainty) of current grassland and forestland is projected
to be converted to other uses between now and 2050, mainly due
to the expansion of agriculture and, second, due to the expansion
of cities and infrastructure. The habitat losses projected in the
MA scenarios will lead to global extinctions as species numbers
approach equilibrium with the remnant habitat. The equilibrium
number of plant species is projected to be reduced by roughly
10-15% as a result of habitat loss over the period 1970-2050 in
the MA scenarios (/ow certainty), but this projection is likely to
be an underestimate as it does not consider reductions due to
stresses other than habitat loss, such as climate change and pollu-
tion. Similarly, modification of river water flows will drive losses

of fish species.

Why is biodiversity loss a concern?

Finding #2. Biodiversity contributes directly (through
provisioning, regulating, and cultural ecosystem services)and
indirectly (through supporting ecosystem services) to many
constituents of human well-being, including security, basic
material for a good life, health, good social relations, and
freedom of choice and action. Many people have benefited
over the last century from the conversion of natural ecosys-
tems to human-dominated ecosystems and the exploitation
of biodiversity. At the same time, however, these losses in
biodiversity and changes in ecosystem services have caused
some people to experience declining well-being, with poverty

in some social groups being exacerbated.

Substantial benefits have been gained from many of the actions
that have caused the homogenization or loss of biodiversity. For
example, agriculture, fisheries, and forestry—three activities that
have placed significant pressures on biodiversity—have often
been the mainstay of national development strategies, providing

revenues that have enabled investments in industrialization and
economic growth. The agricultural labor force currently contains
approximately 22% of the world’s population and accounts for
46% of its total labor force. In industrial countries, exploitation
of natural resources continues to be important for livelihoods
and economies in rural regions. Similarly, many species introduc-
tions, which contribute to the homogenization of global biodi-
versity, have been intentional because of the benefits the species
provide. In other cases, humans have eradicated some harmful
components of biodiversity, such as particular disease organisms
or pests.

Modifications of ecosystems to enhance one service generally
have come at a cost to other services due to trade-offs. Only 4
of the 24 ecosystem services examined in this assessment have
been enhanced: crops, livestock, aquaculture, and (in recent
decades) carbon sequestration. In contrast, 15 other services have
been degraded, including capture fisheries, timber production,
water supply, waste treatment and detoxification, water purifica-
tion, natural hazard protection, regulation of air quality, regula-
tion of regional and local climate, regulation of erosion, and
many cultural benefits (spiritual, aesthetic, recreational, and oth-
ers). The impacts of these trade-offs among ecosystem services
affect different people in different ways. For example, an aqua-
culture farmer may gain material welfare from management
practices that increase soil salinization and thereby reduce rice
yields and threaten food security for nearby subsistence farmers.

Beneficial changes in ecosystem services have not been equi-
tably distributed among people, and many of the costs of
changes in biodiversity have historically not been factored into
decision-making. Even where the net economic benefits of
changes leading to the loss of biodiversity (such as ecosystem
simplification) have been positive, many people have often been
harmed by such changes. In particular, poor people, particularly
those in rural areas in developing countries, are more directly
dependent on biodiversity and ecosystem services and more vul-
nerable to their degradation. Such biodiversity loss is equivalent
to the loss of biological insurance or of alternative biological
resources important for maintaining the flow of goods and ser-
vices. Richer groups of people are often less affected by the loss
of ecosystem services because of their ability to purchase substi-
tutes or to offset local losses of ecosystem services by shifting
production and harvest to other regions. For example, as fish
stocks have been depleted in the north Atlantic, European and
other commercial capture fisheries shifted their fishing to West
African seas, but this has adversely affected coastal West Africans
who rely on fish as a cheap source of protein.

Many costs associated with changes in biodiversity may be
slow to become apparent, may be apparent only at some dis-
tance from where biodiversity was changed, or may involve
thresholds or changes in stability that are difficult to measure.
For example, there is established but incomplete evidence that
reductions in biodiversity reduce ecosystem resilience or the

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 5

ability of an ecosystem to recover from a perturbation. But costs
associated with such reductions in resilience may not be apparent
for years until a significant perturbation is experienced and the
lost ability to recover manifests itself. An example of where the
effect of a change in biodiversity in one location can have
impacts in other locations is the conversion of forest to agricul-
ture in one region that affects river flows in downstream areas

far removed from the conversion.

Threshold effects—abrupt or nonlinear changes or regime
shifts in a system in response to a gradual or linear change in
single or multiple drivers—have been commonly encountered
in aquatic ecosystems and are often associated with changes in
biodiversity. For instance, a steady increase in fishing pressure
can cause abrupt changes in species populations in coastal
ecosystems. An example of a regime shift in response to changes
in multiple drivers is the case of tropical coral reefs, where nutri-
ent loading, declines in herbivorous fish, and reef degradation
collectively trigger shifts to algal-dominated systems. An example
of instability caused by a change in biodiversity is that of the
introduction of the invasive, carnivorous ctenophore Mnemiopsis
leidyi (a jellyfish-like animal) in the Black Sea, which caused
the rapid loss of 26 major fisheries species and has been impli-
cated (along with other factors) in the continued growth of the
oxygen-deprived “dead” zone. The species was subsequently
introduced into the Caspian and Aral Seas, where it is having
similar impacts.

Biodiversity loss is important in its own right because biodi-
versity has cultural values, because many people ascribe intrin-
sic value to biodiversity, and because it represents unexplored
options for the future (option values). People from all walks of
life value biodiversity for spiritual, aesthetic, recreational, and
other cultural reasons. Species extinction at the global level is also
of particular significance, since such permanent, irreversible
losses of species are a loss in the constitutive elements of well-
being. Population extirpation and loss of habitat are particularly
important at national and local levels, because most ecosystem
services are delivered at the local and regional level and strongly
depend on the type and relative abundance of species.

What is the value of biodiversity?

Finding #3. Improved valuation techniques and informa-
tion on ecosystem services tells us that although many indi-
viduals benefit from the actions and activities that lead to
biodiversity loss and ecosystem change, the costs borne by
society of such changes is often higher. Even in instances
where our knowledge of benefits and costs is incomplete, the
use of the precautionary approach may be warranted when
the costs associated with ecosystem changes may be high or
the changes irreversible.

6 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

In a number of existing studies of changes in economic value
associated with changes to biodiversity in specific locations (such
as the conversion of mangrove forests, draining of wetlands,

and clear-felling of forests), the total economic cost of ecosystem
conversion (including both market and nonmarket values of
ecosystem services) is found to be significant and to sometimes
exceed the benefits of the habitat conversion. Despite this, in a
number of these cases conversion was promoted because the cost
associated with the loss of ecosystem services was not internal-
ized, because the private gains were significant (although less
than the public losses), and sometimes also because subsidies
distorted the relative costs and benefits. Often, the majority of
local inhabitants were disenfranchised by the changes.

A country’s ecosystems and its ecosystem services represent
a capital asset, but the benefits that could be attained through
better management of this asset are poorly reflected in conven-
tional economic indicators. A country could cut its forests and
deplete its fisheries and this would show only as a positive gain
to GDP despite the loss of the capital asset. When the decline
in these “natural capital assets” is factored into the measures of
national wealth, the estimates of that wealth decline significantly
for countries with economies that are especially dependent on
natural resources. Some countries that appeared to have positive
growth in the 1970s and 1980s, for example, actually experi-
enced a net loss of capital assets, effectively undermining the
sustainability of any gains they may have achieved.

The costs resulting from ecosystem “surprises” can be very
high. The United States, for example, spends hundreds of
millions of dollars each year controlling alien species that were
initially rare and of little consequence but eventually became
invasive. Increased insurance premiums for floods, fires, and
other extreme events have risen dramatically in recent decades.
Changes in ecosystems are sometimes important factors in con-
tributing to the increased frequency and severity of the impacts
of these extreme events. Such surprises suggest that the precau-
tionary principle may apply to conserving biodiversity even
where data are insufficient to calculate costs and benefits.

The costs and risks associated with biodiversity loss are
expected to increase, and to fall disproportionately on the poor.
As biodiversity and the provision of some ecosystem services
decrease, the marginal value of biodiversity increases. There are
also distributional impacts that are not necessarily borne out in
economic valuation studies, since the poor have a relatively low
“willingness to pay.” Many aspects of biodiversity decline have a
disproportionate impact on poor people. The decline in fish pop-
ulations, for example, has major implications for artisanal fishers
and the communities that depend on fish as an important source
of protein. As dryland resources are degraded, it is the poor and
vulnerable who suffer the most.

Tools now exist for a far more complete computation of the
different values people place on biodiversity and ecosystem ser-
vices. However, some ecosystem services are more difficult to

value, and therefore many decisions continue to be made in
the absence of a detailed analysis of the full costs, risks, and

benefits. Economists typically seek to identify the various reasons
why biodiversity and ecosystems are valuable to people. These
include the fact that ecosystems directly or indirectly support
people’s own consumption (often referred to as use value) or that
they support the consumption of other people or other species
(often referred to as non-use value). Various valuation methods
are now available to estimate these different sources of value.
Despite the existence of these tools, only provisioning ecosystem
services are routinely valued. Most supporting, cultural, and reg-
ulating services are not valued because the willingness of people
to pay for these services—which are not privately owned or
traded—cannot be directly observed or measured. In addition, it
is recognized by many people that biodiversity has intrinsic
value, which cannot be valued in conventional economic terms.
There is substantial scope for greater protection of biodiver-
sity through actions justified on their economic merits for
material or other benefits to human well-being. Conservation

of biodiversity is essential as a source of particular biological
resources, to maintain different ecosystem services, to maintain
the resilience of ecosystems, and to provide options for the
future. These benefits that biodiversity provides to people have
not been well reflected in decision-making and resource manage-
ment, and thus the current rate of loss of biodiversity is higher
than it would be had these benefits been taken into account.
(See Figure 2.)

However, the total amount of biodiversity that would be con-
served based strictly on utilitarian considerations is likely to be
less than the amount present today (medium certainty). Even if
utilitarian benefits, such as those associated with provisioning
and regulating ecosystem services, were fully taken into account
in decision-making, Earth would still be losing biodiversity.
Other utilitarian benefits often “compete” with the benefits
of maintaining greater diversity, and on balance the level of
diversity that would exist would be less than is present today.

2. How Mucu Biopiversity WILL REMAIN A CENTURY FROM Now UNDER DIFFERENT VALUE FRAMEWORKS?

The outer circle in the Figure represents the present level of global biodiversity. Each inner circle represents the level of biodiversity under
different value frameworks. Question marks indicate the uncertainties over where the boundaries exist, and therefore the appropriate size of each

circle under different value frameworks.

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

e+ Wiith consideration of non-utilitarian values:

b Additional amount of biodiversity that should be conserved for

non-utilitarian values such as intrinsic values and the equitable
distribution of biodiversity.

With consideration of resilience, thresholds,
and option values:

Additional amount of biodiversity that should be conserved for
utilitarian reasons because of its role in maintaining capacity to
adapt to change, as precaution against thresholds, and for option

and existence values.

With consideration of the biodiversity role

in ecosystem services:

Additional amount of biodiversity that should be conserved for
utilitarian reasons because of its role in providing and sustaining
ecosystem services.

Business as usual:

_” What will remain under current trends and policies given trade-offs
Vy with economic development, agriculture, etc.

Please note that the circle sizes are
only conceptual and do not correspond
to any calculation or estimate.

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 7/

a eee

Many of the steps taken to increase the production of ecosystem
services (such as agriculture) require the simplification of natural
systems, and protecting some other ecosystem services may not
necessarily require the conservation of biodiversity (such as tim-
ber from monoculture plantation forestry). Ultimately, more bio-
diversity will be conserved if ethical, equitable distribution and
spiritual concerns are taken into account (the outermost area in
Figure 2) than if only the operation of imperfect and incomplete
markets is relied on.

What are the causes of biodiversity loss,
and how are they changing?

Finding # 4. The drivers of loss of biodiversity and the
drivers of changes in ecosystem services are either steady,
show no evidence of declining over time, or are increasing
in intensity.

In the aggregate and at a global scale, there are five indirect
drivers of changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services: demo-
graphic, economic, sociopolitical, cultural and religious, and
scientific and technological. Although biodiversity and ecosys-
tem services experience change due to natural causes, current
change is dominated by these anthropogenic indirect drivers. In
particular, growing consumption of ecosystem services (as well as
the growing use of fossil fuels), which results from growing pop-
ulations and growing per capita consumption, leads to increased
pressure on ecosystems and biodiversity. Global economic activ-
ity increased nearly sevenfold between 1950 and 2000. Under
the MA scenarios, per capita GDP is projected to grow by a fac-
tor of 1.9 to 4.4 by 2050. Global population doubled in the last
40 years, reaching 6 billion in 2000, and is projected to reach
8.1—9.6 billion by 2050 in the MA scenarios.

The many processes of globalization have amplified some
driving forces of changes in ecosystem services and attenuated
other forces. Over the last 50 years there have been significant
changes in sociopolitical drivers, including a declining trend in
centralized authoritarian governments and a rise in elected
democracies, which allows for new forms of management, in
particular adaptive management, of environmental resources.
Culture conditions individuals’ perceptions of the world, and—
by influencing what they consider important—has implications
for conservation and consumer preferences and suggests courses
of action that are appropriate and inappropriate. The develop-
ment and diffusion of scientific knowledge and technologies can
on the one hand allow for increased efficiency in resource use
while on the other hand provide the means to increase exploita-
tion of resources.

The most important direct drivers of biodiversity loss and
change in ecosystem services are habitat change—such as land
use change, physical modification of rivers or water withdrawal
from rivers, loss of coral reefs, and damage to sea floors due to

8 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

trawling—climate change, invasive alien species, overexploita-
tion of species, and pollution. For virtually all these drivers, and
for most ecosystems where they have been important, the impact
of the driver currently remains constant or is growing. (See Fig-
ure 3.) Each of these drivers will have important impacts on
biodiversity in the twenty-first century:

@ Habitat transformation, particularly from conversion to agri-
culture. Cultivated systems (areas where at least 30% of the
landscape is in croplands, shifting cultivation, confined livestock
production, or freshwater aquaculture) now cover one quarter of
Earth’s terrestial surface. Under the MA scenarios, a further 10—
20% of grassland and forestland is projected to be converted by
2050 (primarily to agriculture). While the expansion of agricul-
ture and its increased productivity is a success story of enhanced
production of one key ecosystem service, this success has come
at high and growing costs in terms of trade-offs with other
ecosystem services, both through the direct impact of land cover
change and as a result of release of nutrients into rivers and water
withdrawals for irrigation (globally, roughly 15-35% of such
irrigation withdrawals are estimated to be unsustainable (low to
medium certainty). Habitat loss also occurs in coastal and marine
systems, though these transformations are less well documented.
Trawling of the seabed, for instance, can significantly reduce the
diversity of benthic habitats, while destructive fishing and coastal
development can lead to losses of coral reefs.

B Overexploitation (especially overfishing). For marine systems,
the dominant direct driver of change globally has been overfish-
ing. Demand for fish as food for people and as feed for aquacul-
ture production is increasing, resulting in increased risk of major,
long-lasting collapses of regional marine fisheries. Over much
of the world the biomass of fish targeted in fisheries (including
that of both the target species and those caught incidentally)
has been reduced by 90% relative to levels prior to the onset of
industrial fishing. About three quarters (75%) of the world’s
commercial marine fisheries are either fully exploited (50%) or
overexploited (25%).

® Biotic exchange. The spread of invasive alien species and
disease organisms has increased because of increased trade and
travel, including tourism. Increased risk of biotic exchange is an
inevitable effect of globalization. While increasingly there are
measures to control some of the pathways of invasive species—
for example, through quarantine measures and new rules on the
disposal of ballast water in shipping—several pathways are not
adequately regulated, particularly with regard to introductions
into freshwater systems.

@ Nutrient loading. Since 1950, nutrient loading—anthropo-
genic increases in nitrogen, phosphorus, sulfur, and other
nutrient-associated pollutants—has emerged as one of the most
important drivers of ecosystem change in terrestrial, freshwater,
and coastal ecosystems, and this driver is projected to increase
substantially in the future (4zgh certainty). For example, synthetic
production of nitrogen fertilizer has been a key driver for the
remarkable increase in food production during the last 50 years.
Humans now produce more reactive (biologically available)
nitrogen than is produced by all natural pathways combined.

Aerial deposition of reactive nitrogen into natural terrestrial eco-
systems, especially temperate grasslands, shrublands, and forests,
leads directly to lower plant diversity; excessive levels of reactive
nitrogen in water bodies, including rivers and other wetlands,
frequently leads to algal blooms and eutrophication in inland
waters and coastal areas. Similar problems have resulted from

gure 3. Main Direct Drivers

phosphorus, the use of which has tripled between 1960 and
1990. Nutrient loading will become an increasingly severe
problem, particularly in developing countries and particularly in
East and South Asia. Only significant actions to improve the
efficiency of nutrient use or the maintenance or restoration of
wetlands that buffer nutrient loading will mitigate these trends.

The cell color indicates the impact to date of each driver on biodiversity in each biome over the past 50-100 years. The arrows indicate the trend in
the impact of the driver on biodiversity. Horizontal arrows indicate a continuation of the current level of impact; diagonal and vertical arrows indicate
progressively increasing trends in impact. This Figure is based on expert opinion consistent with and based on the analysis of drivers of change in
various chapters of the assessment report of the Condition and Trends Working Group. This Figure presents global impacts and trends that may be

different from those in specific regions.

Climate Invasive Over- Ganeee
change species exploitation phosphorus)

Tig ariel

Habitat
change
Boreal 7
Forest Temperate
Tropical
Temperate grassland
Mediterranean
Dryland

Tropical grassland
and savanna

Desert

Inland water

Coastal

Marine

Island

Mountain

Polar

Se | ed |

—
—

be
-

+ 4

Driver’s impact on biodiversity
over the last century

Low

Moderate pera
von
Very high ae

Driver's current trends

Decreasing impact ‘Ne

Continuing impact |

Very rapid increase
of the impact

[ict
Increasing impact Val

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 9

® Anthropogenic climate change. Observed recent changes in cli-
mate, especially warmer regional temperatures, have already had
significant impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems, including
causing changes in species distributions, population sizes, the
timing of reproduction or migration events, and an increase in the
frequency of pest and disease outbreaks. Many coral reefs have
undergone major, although often partially reversible, bleaching
episodes when local sea surface temperatures have increased dur-
ing one month by 0.5—1° Celsius above the average of the hottest
months. By the end of the twenty-first century, climate change
and its impacts may be the dominant direct driver of biodiversity
loss and changes in ecosystem services globally.

The scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change project an increase in global mean surface tem-
perature of 2.0—6.4° Celsius above preindustrial levels by 2100,
increased incidence of floods and droughts, and a rise in sea level
of an additional 8-88 centimeters between 1990 and 2100. The
impact on biodiversity will grow worldwide with both increasing
rates of change in climate and increasing absolute change in
climate. Although some ecosystem services in some regions may
initially be enhanced by projected changes in climate (such as
increases in temperature or precipitation), and thus these regions
may experience net benefits at low levels of climate change, as
climate change becomes more severe the harmful impacts on
ecosystem services are likely to outweigh the benefits in most
regions of the world. The balance of scientific evidence suggests
that there will be a significant net harmful impact on ecosystem
services worldwide if global mean surface temperature increases
more than 2° Celsius above preindustrial levels or at rates greater
than 0.2° Celsius per decade (medium certainty).

Climate change is projected to further adversely affect key
development challenges, including providing clean water, energy
services, and food; maintaining a healthy environment; and con-
serving ecological systems and their biodiversity and associated
ecological goods and services:

@ Climate change is projected to exacerbate the loss of biodi-

versity and increase the risk of extinction for many species,

especially those already at risk due to factors such as low popu-
lation numbers, restricted or patchy habitats, and limited
climatic ranges (medium to high certainty).

@ Water availability and quality are projected to decrease in

many arid and semiarid regions (high certainty).

® The risk of floods and droughts is projected to increase

(high certainty).

® The reliability of hydropower and biomass production is

projected to decrease in some regions (high certainty).

® The incidence of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and

dengue and of waterborne diseases such as cholera is projected

to increase in many regions (medium to high certainty), and so
too are heat stress mortality and threats of decreased nutrition
in other regions, along with severe weather traumatic injury
and death (high certainty).

10 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

CO aE

® Agricultural productivity is projected to decrease in the
tropics and sub-tropics for almost any amount of warming
(low to medium certainty), and there are projected adverse
effects on fisheries.

® Projected changes in climate during the twenty-first century
are very likely to be without precedent during at least the past
10,000 years and, combined with land use change and the
spread of exotic or alien species, are likely to limit both the
capability of species to migrate and the ability of species to
persist in fragmented habitats.

What actions can be taken?

Finding # 5. Many of the actions that have been taken to
conserve biodiversity and promote its sustainable use have
been successful in limiting biodiversity loss and homogeniza-
tion to rates lower than they would otherwise have been in
the absence of such actions. However, further significant
progress will require a portfolio of actions that build on cur-
rent initiatives to address important direct and indirect
drivers of biodiversity loss and ecosystem service degradation.

Less biodiversity would exist today had not communities,
NGOs, governments, and, to a growing extent, business and
industry taken actions to conserve biodiversity, mitigate its loss,
and support its sustainable use. Many traditional cultural prac-
tices have served to protect components of biodiversity impor-
tant for utilitarian or spiritual reasons. Similarly, a number of
community-based resource management programs have slowed
the loss of biodiversity while contributing benefits to the people
by placing community-level benefits as central objectives for
sustainable management. Substantial investments have also been
made by NGOs, governments, and the private sector to reduce
negative impacts on biodiversity, protect threatened biodiversity,
and use biodiversity sustainably.

To achieve greater progress toward biodiversity conservation,
it will be necessary (but not sufficient) to strengthen response
options that are designed with the conservation and sustainable
use of biodiversity and ecosystem services as the primary goal.

Responses with a primary goal of conservation that have
been partly successful and could be further strengthened
include the following:

§ Protected areas. Protected areas, including those managed
primarily for biodiversity conservation and those managed for a
wide range of sustainable uses, are extremely important, espe-
cially in environments where biodiversity loss is sensitive to
changes in key drivers. PA systems are most successful if they are
designed and managed in the context of an ecosystem approach,
with due regard to the importance of corridors and interconnec-
tivity of PAs and to external threats such as pollution, climate
change, and invasive species. At the global and regional scales,
however, the current system of protected areas is not sufficient
for conservation of all (or even representative) components of

biodiversity. PAs need to be better located, designed, and man-
aged to deal with problems like lack of representativeness,
impacts of human settlement within protected areas, illegal har-
vesting of plants and animals, unsustainable tourism, impacts of
invasive species, and vulnerability to global change. Marine and
freshwater ecosystems are even less well protected than terrestrial
ones, although new developments in marine protected areas and
PA networks show promise. Marine protected areas often provide
striking examples of the potential synergies between conservation
and sustainable use, since appropriately placed ones can signifi-
cantly increase fishery harvests in adjoining areas. In all cases,
better policy and institutional options are needed to promote

the fair and equitable sharing of costs and benefits of protected
areas at all levels.

B Species protection and recovery measures for threatened species.
Considerable scope exists to conserve and use biodiversity sus-
tainably through more effective management of individual
species. Although “habitat-based” approaches to species conser-
vation are critical, they are by no means a replacement for “spe-
cies-based” approaches, and likewise, species-based approaches
are insufficient for habitat conservation.

@ Ex situ and in situ conservation of genetic diversity. The bene-
fits from ex situ conservation of genetic diversity, such as gene-
banks, are substantial. While the technology continues to
improve, the major constraint is ensuring that an adequate range
of genetic diversity is contained within the ex situ facilities and
that these remain in the public domain where, for example, they
can serve the needs of poor farmers. In addition, significant ben-
efits can be gained through better integration of ex situ and in
situ conservation strategies, particularly for species that are
difficult to maintain in ex situ facilities.

& Ecosystem restoration. Ecosystem restoration activities are now
common in many countries and include actions to restore almost
all types of ecosystems, including wetlands, forests, grasslands,

estuaries, coral reefs, and mangroves. Restoration will become an

increasingly important response as more ecosystems become

degraded and as demands for their services continue to grow.
Ecosystem restoration, however, is generally far costlier than

protecting the original ecosystem, and it is rare that all of the
biodiversity and services of a system can be restored.

Responses with a primary goal of sustainable use that have
been partly successful and could be further strengthened
include the following:

© Payments and markets for biodiversity and ecosystem services.
Market mechanisms have helped to conserve some aspects of bio-
diversity and to support its sustainable use—for example, in the
context of ecotourism. In many countries, tax incentives, ease-
ments, tradable development permit programs, and contractual
arrangements (such as between upstream landowners and those
benefiting from watershed services) are becoming more common
and have often been shown to be useful for conserving land and
ecosystem services. Between 1996 and 2001, for example, Costa
Rica provided $30 million to landowners to establish or protect
over 280,000 hectares of forests and their environmental services.
Similarly, carbon markets, which offer long-term gains in carbon
sequestration, can provide incentives for conservation, especially
if designed well such that they do not harm biodiversity conser-
vation efforts. While more market-oriented approaches such as
these show considerable promise, many challenges remain, such
as the difficulty of obtaining the information needed to ensure
that the buyers are indeed obtaining the services that they are
paying for and the need to establish underlying institutional
frameworks required for markets to work and ensure benefits are
distributed in an equitable manner. Market reforms can be made
to work better, and in a world of decentralized decision-making,
improving market mechanisms may be essential to both sustain-
able use and conservation.

§ Incorporating considerations of biodiversity conservation into

management practices in sectors such as agriculture, forestry, and
Jisheries. Two types of opportunities exist. First, more diverse sys-
tems of production can often be as effec-
tive as alternative low-diversity systems,
or sometimes even more effective. For
example, integrated pest management can
increase biodiversity on farms, lower costs
by reducing the need for pesticides, and
meet the growing demand for organic
food products. Second, strategies that
promote the intensification of production
rather than the expansion of the total area
of production allow more area for conser-
vation, as described later. Agricultural
policy reforms in a number of countries
are now beginning to take biodiversity
into account, but much more can be
done to reduce harmful impacts on biodi-
versity and ecosystem services.

© Capture of benefits by local communities. Response strategies
designed to provide incentives for biodiversity conservation by
ensuring that local people benefit from one or more components
of biodiversity (such as products from single species or from eco-
tourism) have proved to be very difficult to implement. They
have been most successful when they have simultaneously created
incentives for local communities to make management decisions
consistent with overall biodiversity conservation. However, while
“win-win” opportunities for biodiversity conservation and local
community benefits do exist, local communities can often
achieve greater economic benefits from actions that lead to biodi-
versity loss. More generally, actions to increase income genera-
tion from biodiversity can provide incentives for conservation
but can also lead to degradation without the appropriate
enabling environment, which involves appropriate rights to the
resources, access to information, and stakeholder involvement.

Integrated responses that address both conservation and
sustainable use that could be further strengthened include the
following:

B® Increased coordination among multilateral environmental
agreements and between environmental agreements and other inter-
national economic and social institutions. International agreements
are indispensable for addressing ecosystem-related concerns that
span national boundaries, but numerous obstacles weaken their
current effectiveness. The limited, focused nature of the goals
and mechanisms included in most bilateral and multilateral envi-
ronmental treaties does not address the broader issue of ecosys-
tem services and human well-being. Steps are now being taken to
increase coordination among these treaties, and this could help
broaden the focus of the array of instruments. However, coordi-
nation is also needed between the multilateral environmental
agreements and the more politically powerful international legal
institutions, such as economic and trade agreements, to ensure
that they are not acting at cross-purposes.

@ Public awareness, communication, and education. Education
and communication programs have both informed and changed
preferences for biodiversity conservation and have improved
implementation of biodiversity responses. Improved communica-
tion and education to the public and to decision-makers are
essential to achieve the objectives of environmental conventions,
sustainable development (including the Johannesburg Plan of
Implementation), and sustainable management of natural
resources more generally. While the importance of communica-
tion and education is well recognized, providing the human
and financial resources to undertake effective work is a
continuing barrier.

@ Enhancement of human and institutional capacity for assessing
the consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being and act-
ing on such assessments. Yechnical capacity for agriculture, forestry,

12 EcosysTEMS AND HuMan WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

a ee

and fisheries management is still limited in many countries, but
it is vastly greater than the capacity for effective management for
ecosystem services not derived from these sectors.

® Increased integration of sectoral responses. Biodiversity issues in
agriculture, fishery, and forestry management in many countries
are the responsibility of independent ministries. In order to
encourage sustainable use and conservation of biodiversity, these
ministries need to establish a process to encourage and foster the
development of cross-sectoral policies.

Many of the responses designed with the conservation or sus-
tainable use of biodiversity as the primary goal will not be sus-
tainable or sufficient, however, unless other indirect and direct
drivers of change are addressed and enabling conditions are
established. For example, the sustainability of protected areas
will be severely threatened by human-caused climate change.
Similarly, the management of ecosystem services cannot be sus-
tainable globally if the growth in consumption of services contin-
ues unabated. Responses also need to address the enabling
conditions that determine the effectiveness and degree of imple-
mentation of the biodiversity-focused actions.

In particular, changes in institutional and environmental goy-
ernance frameworks are often required to create these enabling
conditions. Today’s institutions were not designed to take into
account the threats associated with the loss of biodiversity and
the degradation of ecosystem services. Nor were they well
designed to deal with the management of common pool
resources, a characteristic of many ecosystem services. Issues of
ownership and access to resources, rights to participation in deci-
sion-making, and regulation of particular types of resource use or
discharge of wastes can strongly influence the sustainability of
ecosystem management and are fundamental determinants of
who wins and who loses from changes in ecosystems. Corrup-
tion, a major obstacle to effective management of ecosystems,
also stems from weak systems of regulation and accountability. In
addition, conditionality restrictions by multilateral agencies, such
as Structural Adjustment Programs, have also created obstacles to
effective ecosystem service management.

Responses that address direct and indirect drivers and that
seek to establish enabling conditions that would be particularly
important for biodiversity and ecosystem services include
the following:

® Elimination of subsidies that promote excessive use of ecosystem
services (and, where possible, transfer of these subsidies to payments
for nonmarketed ecosystem services). Subsidies paid to the
agricultural sectors of OECD countries between 2001 and 2003
averaged over $324 billion annually, or one third the global value
of agricultural products in 2000. And a significant proportion of
this total involved production subsidies that lead to overproduc-
tion, reduce the profitability of agriculture in developing coun-
tries, and promote overuse of fertilizers and pesticides. Similar
problems are created by fishery subsidies, which amounted to
approximately $6.2 billion in OECD countries in 2002, or

about 20% of the gross value of production. Many countries
outside the OECD also have inappropriate input and
production subsidies.

Although removal of perverse subsidies will produce net bene-
fits, it will not be without costs. Some of the people benefiting
from production subsidies (through either the low prices of prod-
ucts that result from the subsidies or as direct recipients) are poor
and would be harmed by their removal. Compensatory mecha-
nisms may be needed for these groups. Moreover, removal of
agricultural subsidies within the OECD would need to be
accompanied by actions designed to minimize adverse impacts
on ecosystem services in developing countries. But the basic
challenge remains that the current economic system relies funda-
mentally on economic growth that disregards its impact on
natural resources.

& Sustainable intensification of agriculture. The expansion of
agriculture will continue to be one of the major drivers of biodi-
versity loss well into the twenty-first century. In regions where
agricultural expansion continues to be a large threat to biodiver-
sity, the development, assessment, and diffusion of technologies
that could increase the production of food per unit area sustain-
ably, without harmful trade-offs related to excessive consumption
of water or use of nutrients or pesticides, would significantly
lessen pressure on biodiversity. In many cases, appropriate tech-
nologies already exist that could be applied more widely, but
countries lack the financial resources and institutional capabili-
ties to gain and use these technologies. Where agriculture already
dominates landscapes, the maintenance of biodiversity within
these areas is an important component of total biodiversity con-
servation efforts, and, if managed appropriately, can also contrib-
ute to agricultural productivity and sustainability through the
ecosystem services that biodiversity provides (such as through
pest control, pollination, soil fertility, protection of water courses
against soil erosion, and the removal of excessive nutrients).

§ Slowing and adapting to climate change. Significant reduc-
tions in net greenhouse gas emissions are technically feasible due

to an extensive array of technologies in the
energy supply, energy demand, and waste man-
agement sectors. Reducing projected emissions
will require the development and implementa-
tion of supporting institutions and policies to
overcome barriers to the diffusion of these tech-
nologies into the marketplace, increased public
and private-sector funding for research and
development, and effective technology transfer.
Given the inertia in the climate system, actions
to facilitate the adaptation of biodiversity and
ecosystems to climate change will also be neces-
sary to mitigate negative impacts. These may
include the development of ecological corridors
or networks.

S
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@ Addressing unsustainable consumption pat-
terns. Consumption of ecosystem services and nonrenewable
resources affects biodiversity and ecosystems directly and indi-
rectly. Total consumption is a factor of per capita consumption,
population, and efficiency of resource use. Slowing biodiversity
loss requires that the combined effect of these factors be reduced.

@ Slowing the global growth in nutrient loading (even while
increasing fertilizer application in regions where crop yields are
constrained by the lack of fertilizers, such as parts of sub-Saharan
Africa). Technologies already exist for reduction of nutrient pol-
lution at reasonable costs, but new policies are needed for these
tools to be applied on a sufficient scale to slow and ultimately
reverse the increase in nutrient loading.

§ Correction of market failures and internalization of environ-
mental externalities that lead to the degradation of ecosystem services.
Because many ecosystem services are not formally traded, mar-
kets fail to provide appropriate signals that might otherwise con-
tribute to the efficient allocation and sustainable use. In addition,
many of the harmful trade-offs and costs associated with the
management of one ecosystem service are borne by others and so
are not weighed in sectoral decisions regarding the management
of that service. In countries with supportive institutions in place,
market-based tools could be more effectively applied to correct
some market failures and internalize externalities, particularly
with respect to provisioning ecosystem services. Various eco-
nomic instruments or market-based approaches that show prom-
ise, in addition to the creation of new markets for ecosystem
services and payments for ecosystem services noted earlier,
include taxes or user fees for activities with “external costs,” cap-
and-trade systems for reduction of pollutants, and mechanisms
to allow consumer preferences to be expressed through markets
(through certification schemes, for instance).

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

eee

§ Integration of biodiversity conservation and development plan-
ning. Protected areas, restoration ecology, and markets for ecosys-
tem services will have higher chances of success if these responses
are reflected in the national development strategies or in poverty
reduction strategies, in the case of many developing countries. At
the same time, development plans can be more effective if they
take into account existing plans and priorities for the conserva-
tion and sustainable use of biodiversity.

@ Increased transparency and accountability of government and
private-sector performance in decisions that affect ecosystems, includ-
ing through greater involvement of concerned stakeholders in dect-
sion-making. Laws, policies, institutions, and markets that have
been shaped through public participation in decision-making
are more likely to be effective and perceived as just. Stakeholder
participation also contributes to the decision-making process
because it allows for a better understanding of impacts and vul-
nerability, the distribution of costs and benefits associated with
trade-offs, and the identification of a broader range of response
options that are available in a specific context. And stakeholder
involvement and transparency of decision-making can increase
accountability and reduce corruption.

@ Scientific findings and data need to be made available to all of
society. A major obstacle for knowing (therefore valuing), preserv-
ing, sustainably using, and sharing benefits equitably from the
biodiversity of a region is the human and institutional capacity to
research a country’s biota. The CONABIO initiative in Mexico
and INBio in Costa Rica offer examples of successful national
models for converting basic taxonomic information into knowl-
edge for biodiversity conservation policies, as well as for other
policies relating to ecosystems and biodiversity and for use in
education and economic development.

Ecosystem approaches, as adopted by the Convention on
Biological Diversity and others, provide an important frame-
work for assessing biodiversity and ecosystem services and
evaluating and implementing potential responses. The CBD
refers to the ecosystem approach as a strategy for the integrated
management of land, water, and living resources that promotes
conservation and sustainable use in an equitable way. Applica-
tion of the ecosystem approach involves a focus on the func-
tional relationships and processes within ecosystems, attention
to the distribution of benefits that flow from ecosystem services,
the use of adaptive management practices, the need to carry
out management actions at multiple scales, and intersectoral
cooperation. A number of other established approaches, such as
sustainable forest management, integrated river basin manage-
ment, and integrated marine and coastal area management, are
consistent with the ecosystem approach and support its applica-
tion in various sectors or biomes.

14 EcosysT—EMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

The usefulness of the ecosystem approach is strongly sup-
ported by the MA findings since this approach is well suited to
the need to take into account the trade-offs that exist in the man-
agement of ecosystems and incorporates the need for both coor-
dination across sectors and management across scales. The
ecosystem approach also provides a framework for designing and
implementing the entire range of necessary responses, ranging
from those directly addressing the needs for conservation and
sustainable use of biodiversity to those necessary to address other
indirect and direct drivers that influence ecosystems.

What are the prospects for the 2010 target of
reducing the rate of biodiversity loss, and what
are the implications for the CBD?

Finding #6. Unprecedented additional efforts would be

needed to achieve, by 2010, a significant reduction in the
rate of biodiversity loss at all levels.

The magnitude of the challenge of slowing the rate of biodiver-
sity loss is demonstrated by the fact that most of the direct
drivers of biodiversity loss are projected to either remain con-
stant or to increase in the near future. Moreover, inertia in
natural and human institutional systems results in time lags—of
years, decades, or even centuries—between actions being taken
and their impact on biodiversity and ecosystems becoming
apparent. The design of future targets, goals, and interventions
for the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity will
require significant advances in the methods used for measuring
biodiversity and consideration of the importance of key drivers,
inertia in natural and human institutional systems, and trade-offs
and synergies with other societal goals.

Several of the 2010 sub-targets adopted by the CBD could
be met for some components of biodiversity, or some indica-
tors, in some regions. For example, overall the rate of habitat
loss—the main driver of species loss in terrestrial ecosystems—is
now slowing in certain regions. This may not necessarily trans-
late, however, into lower rates of species loss for all taxa because
of the nature of the relationship between numbers of species and
area of habitat, because decades or centuries may pass before spe-
cies extinctions reach equilibrium with habitat loss, and because
other drivers of loss, such as climate change, nutrient loading,
and invasive species, are projected to increase. While rates of
habitat loss are decreasing in temperate areas, they are projected
to continue to increase in tropical areas. At the same time, if
areas of particular importance for biodiversity are maintained
within protected areas or by other conservation mechanisms,
and if proactive measures are taken to protect threatened species,
then the rate of biodiversity loss of targeted habitats and species

could be reduced.

Trade-offs and synergies between achieving the 2015 targets
of the Millennium Development Goals and the 2010 target of
reducing the rate of biodiversity loss make achieving each of

ences in inertia among drivers and among different components
of biodiversity make it difficult to set goals or targets over a
single time frame. For some drivers, such as the overharvest of

these targets unlikely if tackled independently, but they may be particular species, lag times are rather short; for others, such as

partially achievable if tackled in an integrated manner. Given
that biodiversity underpins the provision of ecosystem services,
which in turn affects human well-being, long-term sustainable

achievement of the MDGs requires
that biodiversity loss is controlled as
part of MDG 7 (ensuring environmen-
tal sustainability). There are potential
synergies as well as trade-offs between
the shorter-term MDG targets for
2015 and reducing the rate of loss of
biodiversity by 2010. For example,
improving rural road networks—a
common feature of hunger reduction
strategies—will likely accelerate rates of
biodiversity loss (directly through habi-
tat fragmentation and indirectly by
facilitating unsustainable harvests of
bushmeat and so on).

Moreover, the MA scenarios suggest
that future development paths that
show relatively good progress toward
meeting the poverty, hunger reduc-
tion, and health targets also show rela-
tively high rates of habitat loss and
associated loss of species over 50 years.
(See Figure 4.) This does not imply
that biodiversity loss is, in and of
itself, good for poverty reduction.
Instead, it indicates that many eco-
nomic development activities aimed at
income generation are likely to have
negative impacts on biodiversity
unless the values of biodiversity and
related ecosystem services are factored
in. For a reduction in the rate of bio-
diversity loss to contribute to poverty
alleviation, priority would need to be
given to protecting the biodiversity
that is of particular importance to the
well-being of poor and vulnerable
people. Efforts toward the 2010
targets will help to achieve MDG 7.

Short-term goals and targets are not
enough. Given the characteristic
response times for human political
and socioeconomic systems and eco-
logical systems, longer-term goals and
targets (such as for 2050) are needed
to guide policy and actions. Differ-

nutrient loading and climate change, lag times are much longer.
Similarly, for some components of biodiversity, such as popula-
tions, lag times in the response of populations of many species

re 4. TRADE-OFFS BETWEEN BIODIVERSITY AND HUMAN WELL-BEING

UNDER THE Four MA ScENarIos

Loss of biodiversity is least in the two scenarios that feature a proactive approach to
environmental management (TechnoGarden and Adapting Mosaic). The MA scenario with the
worst impacts on biodiversity (high rates of habitat loss and species extinction) is also the one
with the worst impacts on human well-being (Order from Strength). A scenario with relatively
positive implications for human well-being (Global Orchestration) had the second worst
implications for biodiversity.

Order from Strength Global Orchestration
Material Material
well-being well-being
AM
Social Social
relations .— ~ Health relations Health
: ® | '
¥
\ P /
Y= “Ky oa pear |
Freedom Security Freedom Security

and choice and choice
CO CD SAD TS GR EE EF 27D CRED LAS CIS ED
Biodiversity loss # Biodiversity loss 4

Adapting Mosaic TechnoGarden
Material Material
well-being well-being
ihre
Social : > Social
relations ~~ Health Telations t 4 Health
Freedom oy Freadom
freedom Securi Securi

and choice ty and choice ty

ears Cs ee a ee

Biodiversity loss @ Biodiversity loss 4

Year Present Year
2050 situation 2050
Decline Improvement |

= a

4 Loss of vascular plant species on land Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 15

to changes may be measured in years or decades, while for other
components, such as the equilibrium number of species, lag
times may be measured in hundreds of years. Thus, scenarios
with short time frames may not capture the long-term benefits
of biodiversity to human well-being. Further, while actions can
be taken to reduce the drivers and their impacts on biodiversity,
some change is inevitable, and adaptation to such change

will become an increasingly important component of

response measures.

Better prediction of the impacts of drivers on biodiversity,
ecosystem functioning, and ecosystem services, together with
improved measures of biodiversity, would aid decision-making
at all levels. Models need to be developed and used to make bet-
ter use of observational data for determining the trends and con-
ditions of biodiversity. Additional effort is required to reduce
critical uncertainties, including those associated with thresholds
associated with changes in biodiversity, ecosystem functioning,
and ecosystem services. Existing biodiversity indicators are help-
ing to communicate trends in biodiversity and highlight its
importance to human well-being. Additional measures, however,
especially those that meet the needs of stakeholders, would assist
in communication, setting achievable targets, addressing trade-
offs between biodiversity conservation and other objectives,
and finding ways to optimize responses. Given the multiple
components of and values associated with biodiversity, no single
measure is likely to be suitable for all needs.

A very wide array of possible futures for biodiversity remains
within the control of people and decision-makers today, and
these different futures have very different implications for the
human well-being of current and future generations. The world
in 2100 could have substantial remaining biodiversity or it could
be relatively homogenized and contain relatively low levels of
diversity. Science can help to inform people about the costs and
benefits of these different futures and identify paths to achieve
them (plus the risks and thresholds), and where there is insuffi-
cient information to predict the consequences of alternative
actions, science can identify the range of possible outcomes.
Science can thus help to ensure that social decisions are made
with the best available information. But ultimately the choice
of biodiversity levels must be determined by society.

16 EcosysTEMs AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

)
( )
|

]

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1. Biodiversity: What is it, where is it, and why is it important?
2. Why is biodiversity loss a concern?
3. What are the current trends and drivers of biodiversity loss?

4. What is the future for biodiversity and ecosystem
services under plausible scenarios?

5. What response options can conserve biodiversity and
promote human well-being?

6. What are the prospects for reducing the rate of loss of
biodiversity by 2010 or beyond and what are the
implications for the Convention on Biological Diversity?

eee

1. Biodiversity: What is it, where is it, and why is it important?

& Biodiversity is the variability among living organisms from
all sources, including terrestrial, marine, and other aquatic eco-
systems and the ecological complexes of which they are part;
this includes diversity within species, between species, and of
ecosystems.

@ Biodiversity forms the foundation of the vast array of eco-
system services that critically contribute to human well-being.

® Biodiversity is important in human-managed as well as natu-
ral ecosystems.

@ Decisions humans make that influence biodiversity affect
the well-being of themselves and others.

What Is Biodiversity?

Biodiversity is the foundation of ecosystem services to which
human well-being is intimately linked. No feature of Earth is
more complex, dynamic, and varied than the layer of living
organisms that occupy its surfaces and its seas, and no feature is
experiencing more dramatic change at the hands of humans than
this extraordinary, singularly unique feature of Earth. This layer
of living organisms—the biosphere—through the collective meta-
bolic activities of its innumerable plants, animals, and microbes
physically and chemically unites the atmosphere, geosphere,

and hydrosphere into one environmental system within which
millions of species, including humans, have thrived. Breathable
air, potable water, fertile soils, productive lands, bountiful

seas, the equitable climate of Earth’s recent history, and other
ecosystem services (see Box 1.1 and Key Question 2) are manifes-
tations of the workings of life. It follows that large-scale human
influences over this biota have tremendous impacts on human
well-being, It also follows that the nature of these impacts, good
or bad, is within the power of humans to influence (CF2).

Defining Biodiversity

Biodiversity is defined as “the variability among living organ-
isms from all sources including, inter alia, terrestrial, marine
and other aquatic ecosystems and the ecological complexes of
which they are part; this includes diversity within species,
between species and of ecosystems.” The importance of this
definition is that it draws attention to the many dimensions of
biodiversity. It explicitly recognizes that every biota can be
characterized by its taxonomic, ecological, and genetic diversity
and that the way these dimensions of diversity vary over space
and time is a key feature of biodiversity. Thus only a multidi-
mensional assessment of biodiversity can provide insights into
the relationship between changes in biodiversity and changes in
ecosystem functioning and ecosystem services (CF2).

Biodiversity includes all ecosystems—managed or unmanaged.
Sometimes biodiversity is presumed to be a relevant feature of only
unmanaged ecosystems, such as wildlands, nature preserves, or
national parks. This is incorrect. Managed systems—be they planta-

18 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

tions, farms, croplands, aquaculture sites, rangelands, or even urban
parks and urban ecosystems—have their own biodiversity. Given
that cultivated systems alone now account for more than 24% of
Earth's terrestrial surface, it is critical that any decision concerning
biodiversity or ecosystem services address the maintenance of biodi-
versity in these largely anthropogenic systems (C26.1).

Measuring Biodiversity: Species Richness
and Indicators

In spite of many tools and data sources, biodiversity remains
difficult to quantify precisely. But precise answers are seldom
needed to devise an effective understanding of where biodiversity
is, how it is changing over space and time, the drivers responsible
for such change, the consequences of such change for ecosystem
services and human well-being, and the response options avail-
able. Ideally, to assess the conditions and trends of biodiversity
either globally or sub-globally, it is necessary to measure the abun-
dance of all organisms over space and time, using taxonomy (such
as the number of species), functional traits (for example, the eco-
logical type such as nitrogen-fixing plants like legumes versus non-
nitrogen-fixing plants), and the interactions among species that
affect their dynamics and function (predation, parasitism, compe-
tition, and facilitation such as pollination, for instance, and how
strongly such interactions affect ecosystems). Even more important
would be to estimate turnover of biodiversity, not just point esti-
mates in space or time. Currently, it is not possible to do this with
much accuracy because the data are lacking. Even for the taxo-
nomic component of biodiversity, where information is the best,
considerable uncertainty remains about the true extent and
changes in taxonomic diversity (C4).

There are many measures of biodiversity; species richness
(the number of species in a given area) represents a single but
important metric that is valuable as the common currency of the
diversity of life—but it must be integrated with other metrics to
fully capture biodiversity. Because the multidimensionality of
biodiversity poses formidable challenges to its measurement, a
variety of surrogate or proxy measures are often used. These
include the species richness of specific taxa, the number of distinct
plant functional types (such as grasses, forbs, bushes, or trees), or
the diversity of distinct gene sequences in a sample of microbial
DNA taken from the soil. Species- or other taxon-based measures
of biodiversity, however, rarely capture key attributes such as vari-
ability, function, quantity, and distribution—all of which provide
insight into the roles of biodiversity. (See Box 1.2.)

Ecological indicators are scientific constructs that use quanti-
tative data to measure aspects of biodiversity, ecosystem condi-
tion, services, or drivers of change, but no single ecological
indicator captures all the dimensions of biodiversity (C2.2.4).
(See Box 1.3.) Ecological indicators form a critical component of
monitoring, assessment, and decision-making and are designed to
communicate information quickly and easily to policy-makers. In
a similar manner, economic indicators such as GDP are highly

influential and well understood by decision-makers. Some envi-
ronmental indicators, such as global mean temperature and atmo-
spheric CO, concentrations, are becoming widely accepted as
measures of anthropogenic effects on global climate. Ecological
indicators are founded on much the same principles and therefore
carry with them similar pros and cons (C2.2.4). (See Box 1.4.)

Where Is Biodiversity?

Biodiversity is essentially everywhere, ubiquitous on Earth’s
surface and in every drop of its bodies of water. The virtual
omnipresence of life on Earth is seldom appreciated because
most organisms are small (<5 centimeters); their presence is
sparse, ephemeral, or cryptic, or, in the case of microbes, they
are invisible to the unaided human eye (CF2).

Documenting spatial patterns in biodiversity is difficult

LINKAGES AMONG BIODIVERSITY, ECOSYSTEM SERVICES, AND HUMAN WELL-BEING

because taxonomic, functional, trophic, genetic, and other
dimensions of biodiversity have been relatively poorly quanti-
fied. Even knowledge of taxonomic diversity, the best known
dimension of biodiversity, is incomplete and strongly biased
toward the species level, megafauna, temperate systems, and
components used by people. (See Figure 1.1.) This results in
significant gaps in knowledge, especially regarding the status of
tropical systems, marine and freshwater biota, plants, inverte-
brates, microorganisms, and subterranean biota. For these rea-
sons, estimates of the total number of species on Earth range
from 5 million to 30 million. Irrespective of actual global species
richness, however, it is clear that the 1.7—2 million species that
have been formally identified represent only a small portion of
total species richness. More-complete biotic inventories are badly
needed to correct for this deficiency (C4).

Biodiversity represents the foundation of ecosystems that, through the services they provide, affect human well-being. These include provision-
ing services such as food, water, timber, and fiber; regulating services such as the regulation of climate, floods, disease, wastes, and water
quality; cultural services such as recreation, aesthetic enjoyment, and spiritual fulfillment; and supporting services such as soil formation,
photosynthesis, and nutrient cycling (CF2). The MA considers human well-being to consist of five main components: the basic material needs for
a good life, health, good social relations, security, and freedom of choice and action. Human well-being is the result of many factors,

many directly or indirectly linked to biodiversity and ecosystem services while others are independent of these.

ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

Provisioning
FOOD
FRESH WATER
WOOD AND FIBER
FUEL

Supporting Regulating
CLIMATE REGULATION
* NUTRIENT CYCLING
» SOIL FORMATION FLOOD REGULATION

DISEASE REGULATION

Soa eerer ool oN WATER PURIFICATION

a...

Cultural

AESTHETIC
SPIRITUAL
EDUCATIONAL
RECREATIONAL

LIFE ON EARTH - BIODIVERSITY

ARROW’S WIDTH
Potential for mediation by _ Intensity of linkages between ecosystem

ARROW’S COLOR

socioeconomic factors services and human well-being

ieee «Low —— Weak
G8 Medium =) Medium
MS High [J Strong

CONSTITUENTS OF WELL-BEING

Security
PERSONAL SAFETY
SECURE RESOURCE ACCESS
SECURITY FROM DISASTERS

Basic material

for good life Freedom
ADEQUATE LIVELIHOODS of choice
SUFFICIENT NUTRITIOUS FOOD and action
SHELTER
ACCESS TO GOODS OPPORTUNITY TO BE
ABLE TO ACHIEVE
WHAT AN INDIVIDUAL
VALUES DOING
Health AND BEING
STRENGTH
FEELING WELL
ACCESS TO CLEAN AIR
AND WATER

Good social relations
SOCIAL COHESION
MUTUAL RESPECT
ABILITY TO HELP OTHERS

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 19

Spatial Patterns of Biodiversity: Hotspots, Biomes,'
Biogeographic Realms, Ecosystems, and Ecoregions
While the data to hand are often insufficient to provide accu-

rate pictures of the extent and distribution of all components
of biodiversity, there are, nevertheless, many patterns and tools
that decision-makers can use to derive useful approximations
for both terrestrial and marine ecosystems. North-temperate
regions often have usable data on spatial distributions of many
taxa, and some groups (such as birds, mammals, reptiles, plants,
butterflies, and dragonflies) are reasonably well documented
globally. Biogeographic principles (such as gradients in species
richness associated with latitude, temperature, salinity, and water
depth) or the use of indicators can supplement available biotic
inventories. Global and sub-global maps of species richness, sev-

Measurements of biodiversity seldom capture all its dimensions,
and the most common measure—species richness—is no excep-
tion. While this can serve as a valuable surrogate measure for other
dimensions that are difficult to quantify, there are several limitations
associated with an emphasis on species. First, what constitutes a
species is not often well defined. Second, although native species
richness and ecosystem functioning correlate well, there is consid-
erable variability surrounding this relationship. Third, species may be
taxonomically similar (in the same genus) but ecologically quite dis-
tinct. Fourth, species vary extraordinarily in abundance; for most bio-
logical communities, only a few are dominant, while many are rare.

Simply counting the number of species in an ecosystem does not
take into consideration how variable each species might be or its
contribution to ecosystem properties. For every species, several
properties other than its taxonomy are more valuable for assess-
ment and monitoring. These properties include measures of genetic
and ecological variability, distribution and its role in ecosystem pro-
cesses, dynamics, trophic position, and functional traits.

In practice, however, variability, dynamics, trophic position, and
functional attributes of many species are poorly known. Thus it is
both necessary and useful to use surrogate, proxy, or indicator

Importance of Variability

eral of which are provided in the MA reports Current State and
Trends and Scenarios, provide valuable pictures of the distribution
of biodiversity (C4, S10).

Most macroscopic organisms have small, often clustered geo-
graphical ranges, leading to centers of both high diversity and
endemism, frequently concentrated in isolated or topographi-
cally variable regions (islands, mountains, peninsulas). A large
proportion of the world’s terrestrial biodiversity at the species
level is concentrated in a small part of the world, mostly in the
tropics. Even among the larger and more mobile species, such as
terrestrial vertebrates, more than one third of all species have
ranges of less than 1,000 square kilometers. In contrast, local and
regional diversity of microorganisms tends to be more similar to
large-scale and global diversity because of their large population

Box 1.2. MEASURING AND EstimaTING BiopiIversiITy: MoRE THAN SPECIES RICHNESS

measures based on the taxonomy or genetic information.

Important attributes missed by species or taxon-based measures
of diversity include:

@ abundance—how much there is of any one type. For many pro-
visioning services (such as food, fresh water, fiber), abundance mat-
ters more than the presence of a range of genetic varieties, species,
or ecosystem types.

@ variation—the number of different types over space and time.
For understanding population persistence, the number of different
varieties or races in a species or variation in genetic composition
among individuals in a population provide more insight than species
richness.

w distribution—where quantity or variation in biodiversity occurs.
For many purposes, distribution and quantity are closely related and
are therefore generally treated together under the heading of quan-
tity. However, quantity may not always be sufficient for services: the
location, and in particular its availability to the people that need it, will
frequently be more critical than the absolute volume or biomass of a
component of biodiversity.

Finally, the importance of variability and quantity varies, depending
on the level of biodiversity measured. (See Table.)

Importance of Quantity and Distribution

local resistance and resilience

local provisioning and regulating services, food,
fresh water

community and ecosystem interactions are enabled
through the co-occurrence of species

Genes adaptive variability for production and resilience
to environmental change, pathogens, and so on

Populations different populations retain local adaptation

Species the ultimate reservoir of adaptive variability,
representing option values

Ecosystems different ecosystems deliver a diversity of roles

the quantity and quality of service delivery depend
on distribution and location

biome classification are used, based on WWF terrestrial ecoregions (C4.2.2).

20 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

size, greater dispersal, larger range sizes, and lower levels of
regional species clustering (C4.2.3).

Biomes and biogeographic realms provide broad pictures
of the distribution of functional diversity. Functional diversity
(the variety of different ecological functions in a community

Eco.LoeicaL INDICATORS AND BIODIVERSITY

The National Research Council in the United States identified
three categories of ecological indicators, none of which
adequately assesses the many dimensions of biodiversity:

mw Ecosystem extent and status (such as land cover and land

use) indicates the coverage of ecosystems and their ecologi-

cal attributes.

w Ecological capital, further divided into biotic raw material

(such as total species richness) and abiotic raw materials (such

as soil nutrients), indicates the amount of resources available

for providing services.

= Ecological functioning (such as lake trophic status) measures

the performance of ecosystems.

Care must therefore be taken not to apply ecological indica-
tors to uses they were not intended for, especially when assess-
ing biodiversity. For example, biotic raw ecological capital
measures the amount and variability of species within a defined
area (C2.2.4). This may seem related to biodiversity, but it mea-
sures only taxonomic diversity. As such, this indicator does not
necessarily capture many important aspects of biodiversity that
are significant for the delivery of ecosystem services.

The most common ecological indicator, total species rich-
ness, is a case in point. TSR only partially captures ecosystem
services. It does not differentiate among species in terms of sen-
sitivity or resilience to change, nor does it distinguish between
species that fulfill significant roles in the ecosystem (such as pol
linators and decomposers) and those that play lesser roles. That
is, all species are weighted equally, which can lead assigning
equal values to areas that have quite different biota. Moreover,
the value of TSR depends on the definition of the area over which
it was measured and may scale neither to smaller nor to larger
areas. Finally, TSR does not differentiate between native and non-
native species, and the latter often include exotic, introduced, or
invasive species that frequently disrupt key ecosystem services.
Ecosystem degradation by human activities may temporarily
increase species richness in the limited area of the impact due to
an increase in exotic or weedy species, but this is not a relevant
increase in biodiversity (C2.2.4).

Given the limitations of ecological indicators to serve as ade-
quate indicators of biodiversity, work is urgently needed to
develop a broader set of biodiversity indicators that are aligned
against valued aspects of biodiversity. With the exception of
diversity indices based on taxonomic or population measures,
little attention has been paid to the development of indicators
that capture all the dimensions of biodiversity (C4.5.1), although
see Key Question 6 and C4.5.2 for more on indicators for the
“2010 biodiversity target.”

independent of its taxonomic diversity) shows patterns of associ-
ations (biota typical of wetlands, forests, grasslands, estuaries,
and so forth) with geography and climate known as biomes

(see Figure 1.2), with ecosystems and ecoregions being smaller
divisions within biomes (see Figure 1.3). These can be used to
provide first-order approximations of both expected functional
diversity as well as possible changes in the distribution of these
associations should environmental conditions change.

Temporal Patterns of Biodiversity: Background
Rates of Extinction and Biodiversity Loss

Knowledge of patterns of biodiversity over time allow for
only very approximate estimates of background rates of extinc-
tion or of how fast species have become extinct over geological
time. Except for the last 1,000 years, global biodiversity has been
relatively constant over most of human history, but the history of
life is characterized by considerable change. The estimated mag-
nitude of background rates of extinction is roughly 0.1-1.0
extinctions per million species per year. Most measurements of
this rate have come from assessing the length of species’ lifetimes
through the fossil record: these range over 0.5—13 million years,
and possibly 0.2-16 million years. These data probably underes-
timate background extinction rates because they are necessarily
largely derived from taxa that are abundant and widespread in
the fossil record (C4.4.2). Current rates of extinction are dis-
cussed in Key Question 3.

A mismatch exists between the dynamics of changes in natu-
ral systems and human responses to those changes. This mis-
match arises from the lags in ecological responses, the complex
feedbacks between socioeconomic and ecological systems, and
the difficulty of predicting thresholds. Multiple impacts (espe-
cially the addition of climate change to the mix of forcing func-
tions) can cause thresholds, or rapid and dramatic changes in
ecosystem function even though the increase in environmental

CRITERIA FOR EFFECTIVE ECOLOGICAL
INDICATORS

An effective ecological indicator should:
@ Provide information about changes in important processes
= Be sensitive enough to detect important changes but not so
sensitive that signals are masked by natural variability
= Be able to detect changes at the appropriate temporal and
Spatial scale without being overwhelmed by variability
= Be based on well-understood and generally accepted con-
ceptual models of the system to which it is applied
= Be based on reliable data that are available to assess trends
and are collected in a relatively straightforward process
= Be based on data for which monitoring systems are in place
@ Be easily understood by policy-makers

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 21

stress has been small and constant over time. Understanding such
thresholds requires having long-term records, but such records
are usually lacking or monitoring has been too infrequent, of the
wrong periodicity, or too localized to provide the necessary data
to analyze and predict threshold behavior (C28, $3.3.1).

Shifts to different regimes may cause rapid substantial
changes in biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-
being. Regime shifts have been commonly documented in
pelagic systems due to thresholds related to temperature regimes
and overexploitation (C19.2.1, C18). Some regime shifts are
essentially irreversible, such as coral reef ecosystems that undergo
sudden shifts from coral-dominated to algal-dominated reefs
(C19.5). The trigger for such phase shifts usually includes
increased nutrient inputs leading to eutrophic conditions and
removal of herbivorous fishes that maintain the balance between
corals and algae. Once the thresholds (both an upper and a lower
threshold) for the two ecological processes of nutrient loading
and herbivory are passed, the phase shift occurs quickly (within
months), and the resulting ecosystem—though stable—is less
productive and less diverse. Consequently, human well-being is
affected not only by reductions in food supply and decreased
income from reef-related industries (diving and snorkeling,
aquarium fish collecting, and so on), but also by increased costs
due to diminished ability of reefs to protect shorelines. (Algal
reefs are more prone to being broken up in storm events, leading
to shoreline erosion and seawater breaches of land) (C19.3).
Such phase shifts have been documented in Jamaica, elsewhere in
the Caribbean, and in Indo-Pacific reefs (C19, $3.3.1).

Introduced invasive species can act as a trigger for dramatic
changes in ecosystem structure, function, and delivery of ser-

vices. For example, the introduction of the carnivorous cteno-
phore Mnemiopsis leidy: (a jellyfish-like animal) in the Black Sea
caused the loss of 26 major fisheries species and has been impli-
cated (along with other factors) in the subsequent growth of the
oxygen-deprived “dead” zone (C19.2.1).

Biodiversity and Its Link

to Ecosystem Services

Biodiversity plays an important role in ecosystem functions
that provide supporting, provisioning, regulating, and cultural
services. These services are essential for human well-being.
However, at present there are few studies that link changes in
biodiversity with changes in ecosystem functioning to changes
in human well-being. Protecting the Catskill watersheds that
provide drinking water for New York City is one case where
safeguarding ecosystem services paid a dividend of several billion
dollars. Further work that demonstrates the links between biodi-
versity, regulating and supporting services, and human well-being
is needed to show this vital but often unappreciated value of
biodiversity (C4, C7, C11).

Species composition matters as much or more than species
richness when it comes to ecosystem services. Ecosystem func-
tioning, and hence ecosystem services, at any given moment in
time is strongly influenced by the ecological characteristics of the
most abundant species, not by the number of species. The rela-
tive importance of a species to ecosystem functioning is deter-
mined by its traits and its relative abundance. For example, the
traits of the dominant or most abundant plant species—such as
how long they live, how big they are, how fast they assimilate
carbon and nutrients, how decomposable their leaves are, or how

e 1.1. EstimaTEs OF PROPORTIONS AND NuMBERS OF NAMED SPECIES IN Groups OF EUKARYOTE SPECIES AND

EsTIMATES OF PROPORTIONS OF THE [OTAL NUMBER OF SPECIES IN GROUPS OF EUKARYOTES (C4.2.3)

Number of species (in thousand)
0 1000 2.000 3 000 4000 5000 6 000 7000 8 000

Insects and myriapods #

Fungi
Chelicerata >

Protoctista ©
Nematodes 4
Plants

Molluscs ©

a Named species ey Unnamed species (estimate)

Crustaceans ‘
Vertebrates

@ Myriapods: centipedes and millipedes

b Arachnids

f Barnacles, copepods, crabs, lobsters, shrimps, krill, and kin Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

22 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

re 1.2. COMPARISONS FOR THE 14 TERRESTRIAL BIOMES OF THE WORLD IN TERMS OF SpEcIES RICHNESS,
FaMILy RICHNESS, AND ENDEMIC SPECIES (C4 Fig 4.7)

0 2 000 4000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 20 000

endemics endemics endemics endemics

EE SE SS Tropical and sub-tropical grasslands, savannas, and shrublands

= Deserts and Xeric shrublands

Ei | Tropical and sub-tropical dry broadleaf forests Upadecrpede earls
SE SE Montane grasslands and shrublands
SE EE Temperate broadleaf and mixed forests
BE Flooded grasslands and savannas
(SS Tropical and sub-tropical coniferous forests
Temperate grasslands, savannas, and shrublands
EE Mangroves

[EE Temperate coniferous forests

2 SE Mediterranean forests, woodlands, and scrub

SpeCies richness

I Boreal forests / Taiga
i Tundra

Tundra IE Saas)
f = | Z Boreal forests / Taiga Hii ES Ey
amily richness
Temperate coniferous forests maa eee
Tropical and sub-tropical coniferous forests Az! [aan [iii inn
Temperate grasslands, savannas, and shrublancs Saas Sa (a
Mediterranean forests, woodlands, and Scrub Sx! [i iit i tintin
Mangroves i Die ee
Flooded grasslands and savannas i! [Raga [nnn nnn
Temperate broadleaf and mixed forests =! [aa litt
Montane grasslands and shrublands Sa ey ie nnn!
Tropical and sub-tropical dry broadleaf forests EE ae eee
Deserts and Xeric shrublands = ine [a
Tropical
and sub-tropical grasslands, savannas, and shrublancs [aa [a
ea ee
and sub-tropical moist broadleaf forests [oe i
Amphibians

500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 23

Tue 8 BloGEOGRAPHICAL REALMS AND 14 Bromes UseED IN THE MA (C

Biogeographic realms are large spatial regions within which ecosystems share a broadly similar biological evolutionary history. Eight terrestrial
biogeographic realms are typically recognized, corresponding roughly to continents. Although similar ecosystems (such as tropical moist for-
ests) share similar processes and major vegetation types wherever they are found, their species composition varies markedly depending on
the biogeographic realm in which they are found. Assessing biodiversity at the level of biogeographic realms is important because the realms
display substantial variation in the extent of change, they face different drivers of change, and there may be differences in the options for mit
igating or managing the drivers. Terrestrial biogeographic realms reflect freshwater biodiversity patterns reasonably well, but marine biogeo-
graphic realms are poorly known and largely undefined (C4.2.1).

! Palearctic

Nearctic oy

Oceanic

/ Indo-Malay ‘ua

Oceanic Afrotropical

a
= Australasian _
Bic nee ie Antarctic Geese

Terrestrial biomes

(9 Tropical and sub-tropical moist broadleaf forests [J Tropical and sub-tropical grasslands, savannas, and shrublands

{) Tropical and sub-tropical dry broadleaf forests (9) Temperate grasslands, savannas, and shrublands

[J Tropical and sub-tropical coniferous forests [) Montane grasslands and shrublands

() Temperate broadleaf and mixed forests [9 Flooded grasslands and savannas

Gl Temperate coniferous forests 3 Mangroves

[) Boreal forests / Taiga [__] Deserts and Xeric shrublands == ------ Realm boundaries

{_} Tundra

{-) Mediterranean forests, woodlands, and scrub {__} Rock and ice Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
dense their wood is—are usually the key species drivers of an all individuals of a species from its entire range). Loss of ecosys-
ecosystem's processing of matter and energy. Thus conserving or tem functions, and the services derived from them, however,
restoring the composition of biological communities, rather than occurs long before global extinction. Often, when the function-
simply maximizing species numbers, is critical to maintaining ing of a local ecosystem has been pushed beyond a certain
ecosystem services (C11.2.1, C11.3). limit by direct or indirect biodiversity alterations, the ecosystem-

Local or functional extinction, or the reduction of popula- service losses may persist for a very long time (C11).

tions to the point that they no longer contribute to ecosystem Changes in biotic interactions among species—predation,
functioning, can have dramatic impacts on ecosystem services. parasitism, competition, and facilitation—can lead to dispro-
Local extinctions (the loss of a species from a local area) and portionately large, irreversible, and often negative alterations of
functional extinctions (the reduction of a species such that it no ecosystem processes. In addition to direct interactions, such as
longer plays a significant role in ecosystem function) have predation, parasitism, or facilitation, the maintenance of ecosys-
received little attention compared with global extinctions (loss of tem processes depends on indirect interactions as well, such as

a predator preying on a dominant competitor such that the

24 EcosysTEMS AND HuMaAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

dominant is suppressed, which permits subordinate species to
coexist. Interactions with important consequences for ecosystem
services include pollination; links between plants and soil com-
munities, including mycorrhizal fungi and nitrogen-fixing micro-
organisms; links between plants and herbivores and seed
dispersers; interactions involving organisms that modify habitat
conditions (beavers that build ponds, for instance, or tussock
grasses that increase fire frequency); and indirect interactions
involving more than two species (such as top predators, parasites,
or pathogens that control herbivores and thus avoid overgrazing
of plants or algal communities) (C11.3.2).

Many changes in ecosystem services are brought about by the
removal or introduction of organisms in ecosystems that dis-
rupt biotic interactions or ecosystem processes. Because the net-
work of interactions among species and the network of linkages
among ecosystem processes are complex, the impacts of either
the removal of existing species or the introduction of new species
are difficult to anticipate (C11). (See Table 1.1.)

As in terrestrial and aquatic communities, the loss of individ-
ual species involved in key interactions in marine ecosystems
can also influence ecosystem processes and the provisioning of
ecological services. For example, coral reefs and the ecosystem
services they provide are directly dependent on the maintenance
of some key interactions between animals and algae. As one of
the most species-rich communities on Earth, coral reefs are
responsible for maintaining a vast storehouse of genetic and bio-
logical diversity. Substantial ecosystem services are provided by
coral reefs—such as habitat construction, nurseries, and spawn-
ing grounds for fish; nutrient cycling and carbon and nitrogen
fixing in nutrient-poor environments; and wave buffering and
sediment stabilization. The total economic value of reefs and
associated services is estimated as hundreds of millions of dollars.
Yet all coral reefs are dependent on a single key biotic interaction:
symbiosis with algae. The dramatic effects of climate change and
variability (such as El Nifio oscillations) on coral reefs are medi-
ated by the disruption of this symbiosis (C11.4.2).

Supporting Services

Biodiversity affects key ecosystem processes in terrestrial eco-
systems such as biomass production, nutrient and water
cycling, and soil formation and retention—all of which govern
and ensure supporting services (high certainty). The relationship
between biodiversity and supporting ecosystem services depends
on composition, relative abundance, functional diversity, and, to
a lesser extent, taxonomic diversity. If multiple dimensions of
biodiversity are driven to very low levels, especially trophic or
functional diversity within an ecosystem, both the level and sta-
bility (for instance, biological insurance) of supportive services
may decrease (CF2, C11). (See Figure 1.4.)

Region-to-region differences in ecosystem processes are
driven mostly by climate, resource availability, disturbance, and
other extrinsic factors and not by differences in species richness
(high certainty). In natural ecosystems, the effects of abiotic and
land use drivers on ecosystem services are usually more important

than changes in species richness. Plant productivity, nutrient
retention, and resistance to invasions and diseases sometimes
grow with increasing species numbers in experimental ecosystems
that have been reduced to low levels of biodiversity. In natural
ecosystems, however, these direct effects of increasing species
richness are usually overridden by the effects of climate, resource
availability, or disturbance regime (C11.3).

Even if losses of biodiversity have small short-term impacts
on ecosystem function, such losses may reduce the capacity of
ecosystems for adjustment to changing environments (that is,
ecosystem stability or resilience, resistance, and biological
insurance) (high certainty). The loss of multiple components of
biodiversity, especially functional and ecosystem diversity at the
landscape level, will lead to lowered ecosystem stability (igh
certainty). Although the stability of an ecosystem depends to a
large extent on the characteristics of the dominant species (such
as life span, growth rate, or regeneration strategy), less abundant
species also contribute to the long-term preservation of ecosystem
functioning. There is evidence that a large number of resident
species, including those that are rare, may act as “insurance” that
buffers ecosystem processes in the face of changes in the physical
and biological environment (such as changes in precipitation,
temperature, pathogens) (C11.3.2). As tragically illustrated by
social conflict and humanitarian crisis over droughts, floods, and
other ecosystem collapses, stability of ecosystems underpins most
components of human well-being, including health, security,
satisfactory social relations, and freedom of choice and action

(C6; see also Key Question 2).

Regulating Services
Invasion resistance

The preservation of the number, types, and relative abun-
dance of resident species can enhance invasion resistance in a
wide range of natural and semi-natural ecosystems (medium cer-
tainty). Although areas of high species richness (such as biodiver-
sity hot spots) are more susceptible to invasion than species-poor
areas, within a given habitat the preservation of its natural species
pool appears to increase its resistance to invasions by non-native
species. This is also supported by evidence from several marine
ecosystems, where decreases in the richness of native taxa were
correlated with increased survival and percent cover of invading

species (C11.3.1, C11.4.1).

Pollination

Pollination is essential for the provision of plant-derived eco-
system services, yet there have been worldwide declines in pol-
linator diversity (7medium certainty). Many fruits and vegetables
require pollinators, thus pollination services are critical to the
production of a considerable portion of the vitamins and miner-
als in the human diet. Although there is no assessment at the
continental level, documented declines in more-restricted geo-
graphical areas include mammals (lemurs and bats, for example)

(continued on page 29)

EcosysTEMs AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 25

Table 1.1. Ecotocicat SuRPRISES CAUSED By COMPLEX INTERACTIONS

Voluntary or involuntary introductions or deletions of species often trigger unexpected alterations in the normal provision of ecosystem
services by terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems. In all cases, the community and ecosystem alterations have been the

consequence of indirect interactions among three or more species (C11, Table 11.2).

Study Case

Nature of the Interaction Involved

Ecosystem Service Consequences

Introductions

Top predators

Introduction of brown trout
(Salmo trutta) in New Zealand
for angling

Introduction of bass
(Cichla ocellaris) in
Gatun Lake, Panama

Introduction of pine marten
(Martes martes) in the
Balearic Islands, Spain

Intraguild predators

Egg parasitoid (Anastatus
kashmirensis) to control gypsy
moth (Lymantria dispar)

Gambusia and Lepomis fish in
rice fields to combat mosquitoes

Intraguild preys

Opossum shrimp (Mysis relicta)
in Canadian lakes to increase
fish production

Apparent competitors

Rats (Rattus spp) and cats
(Felis catus) in Steward Island,
New Zealand

Herbivores

Zebra mussel (Dreissena
polymorpha) in Great Lakes,
United States

Mutualists

Myna bird (Acridotheres tristis)
for worm pest control in Hawaiian
sugarcane plantations

trophic cascade, predator
increased primary producers by
decreasing herbivores

trophic cascade, top predator
decreased control by predators
of mosquito larvae

predator of frugivorous lizards
(main seed dipersers)

hyperparasitism (parasitoids that
use parasitoids as hosts)

intraguild predator (adult fish feed on
juveniles as well as on mosquito larvae)

intraguild prey depletes shared
zooplankton prey

rats induced high cat densities and
increased predation on endangered
flightless parrot (Strigops habroptilus)

zebra mussel reduced phytoplankton
and outcompeted native bivalves

myna engaged in the dispersal of the
exotic woody weed Lantana camara

26 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

negative—increased eutrophication

negative—decreased control of malaria vector

negative—decreased diversity of frugivorous
lizards due to extinction of native lizards on some
islands; changes in dominant shrub (Cneorum
tricoccon) distribution because marten replaced
the frugivorous-dispersing role

negative—disruption of biological control of pests;
introduced parasitoid poses risk of hyperparasitism
to other pestregulating native parasitoids

opposed to goal—decreased control of disease
vector (mosquito)

opposed to goal—decreased salmonid fish production

negative—reduced diversity

negative—reduced diversity
positive—increased water quality

negative—increased invasion by Lantana produced
impenetrable thorny thickets; reduced agricultural
crops and pasture carrying capacity and sometimes
increased fire risk; displaced habitat of native birds

Ecosystem engineers

Earthworm (Pontoscolex
corethrurus) in Amazonian tropical
forests converted to pasture

C, perennial grasses
Schizachyrium condesatum,
Melinis minutiflora in Hawaii
for pasture improvement

Nitrogen-fixing firetree (Myrica faya)
in Hawaii

dramatically reduces soil
macroporosity and gas exchange
capacity

increased fuel loads, fuel
distribution, and flammability

increases soil nitrogen levels in newly
formed nitrogen-poor volcanic soils

negative—reduces soil macrofaunal diversity and
increases soil methane emissions

negative—increases fire frequency, affecting
fire-sensitive plants; reduced plant diversity;
positive feedback for further invasion of
flammable exotic species on burned areas

negative—increased fertility, increased invasion
by other exotics, reduced regeneration of native
Metrosideros tree, alteration of successional patterns

Deletions/ Harvesting

;

Top predators

Selective harvesting of piscivorous
fishes in Canadian lakes

Sea otter (Enhydra lutris)
harvesting near extinction in
southern California

Pollution-induced reductions in
predators of nematodes in
forest soils

Intraguild predators

Declining populations of coyote
(Canis latrans) in southern California

Overhavesting of seals and
sea lions in Alaska

Keystone predators

Harvesting of triggerfish
(Balistaphus) in Kenyan coral reefs

Herbivores

Voluntary removal of sheep and
cattle in Santa Cruz Island,
United States, for restoration

Overfishing in the Caribbean
reduced herbivorous and predatory
fish and reduced fish biomass

Ecosystem engineers

Voluntary removal of exotic
tamarisk (Tamariscus sp.) for
restoration of riparian habitats in
Mediterranean deserts

piscivorus fishes promote Daphnia
that effectively suppresses primary
(algal) production

cascading effects produced
reductions of kelp forests and the
kelp-dependent community

heavy metal bioaccumulation
produced reductions nematophagous
predators and increased herbivorous
nematodes

releases in raccoons (Procyon lotor)
and feral house cats

diet shifts of killer whales
increased predation on sea otters

triggerfish declines release sea urchins,
which outcompete herbivorous fish

release of the exotic plant
component from top-down control

lack of fish grazers allowed
macroalgae to outcompete coral
following disturbances

long-established tamarisk has
replaced riparian vegetation and
serves as habitat to endangered birds

negative—shifts from net carbon sinks in
piscivorous-dominated to equilibrium or net
carbon sources in planktivorous-dominated lakes

negative—loss of biodiversity of kelp habitat users

negative—disruption of forest soil food webs;
increases in belowground herbivory; decrease in
forest productivity

negative—threat to native bird populations

negative—conflict with other restoration programs;
failure of reintroduction of sea otters to restore kelp
forest ecosystems

negative—increased bioerosion of coral substrates;
reduced calcium carbonate deposition

opposite to goal—explosive increases in exotic herbs
and forbs and little recovery of native plant species

negative—coral cover was reduced from 52% to 3%,

and macroalgae increased from 4% to 92%

opposite to goal—reduction in biodiversity;
structural changes in riparian habitats

EcosystTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 27

Figure 1.4. 5 2 NG, AND EcosysTEM SERVICES ig 11.1)
Figure 1.4. Biopiversity, Ecosystem FUNCTIONING E S (C11 Fig 11.1)

Biodiversity is both a response variable affected by global change drivers and a factor modifying ecosystem processes and services
and human well-being. Solid arrows indicate the links that are the focus of Chapter C11.

etter eke kx keke eke ekg ekg Hg NK

Global changes

Climate
Biochemical cycles
Land use

Species introduction

Number

Relative abundance
Composition
Interactions

Ecosystem
functions

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

28 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

Biodiversity o>

————

Human well-being
Basic material for good life
Health

Security

Good social relations
Freedom of choice and action

}

Ecosystem services

PROVISIONING SERVICES
Food, fiber, and fuel

Genetic resources
Biochemicals

Fresh water

CULTURAL SERVICES
Spiritual and religious values
Knowledge system

Education and inspiration
Recreation and aesthetic values
Sense of place

SUPPORTING SERVICES
Primary production

Provision of habitat

Nutrient cycling

Soil formation and retention
Production of atmospheric oxygen
Water cycling

REGULATING SERVICES
Invasion resistance
Herbivory

Pollination

Seed dispersal

Climate regulation

Pest regulation

Disease regulation
Natural hazard protection
Erosion regulation

Water purification

and birds (hummingbirds and sunbirds, for instance), bumblebees
in Britain and Germany, honeybees in the United States and some
European countries, and butterflies in Europe. The causes of
these declines are multiple, but habitat destruction and the use of
pesticide are especially important. Estimates of the global annual
monetary value of pollination vary widely, but they are in the
order of hundreds of billions of dollars (C11.3.2, Box C11.2).

Climate regulation

Biodiversity influences climate at local, regional, and global
scales, thus changes in land use and land cover that affect biodi-
versity can affect climate. The important components of biodi-
versity include plant functional diversity and the type and
distribution of habitats across landscapes. These influence the
capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to sequester carbon, albedo
(proportion of incoming radiation from the Sun that is reflected
by the land surface back to space), evapotranspiration, tempera-
ture, and fire regime—all of which influence climate, especially
at the landscape, ecosystem, or biome levels. For example, forests
have higher evapotranspiration than other ecosystems, such as
grasslands, because of their deeper roots and greater leaf area.
Thus forests have a net moistening effect on the atmosphere and
become a moisture source for downwind ecosystems. In the
Amazon, for example, 60% of precipitation comes from water
transpired by upwind ecosystems (C11.3.3).

In addition to biodiversity within habitats, the diversity of
habitats in a landscape exerts additional impacts on climate
across multiple scales. Landscape-level patches (>10 kilometers in
diameter) that have lower albedo and higher surface temperature
than neighboring patches create cells of rising warm air above the
patch (convection). This air is replaced by cooler moister air that
flows laterally from adjacent patches (advection). Climate models
suggest that these landscape-level effects can substantially modify
local-to-regional climate. In Western Australia, for example, the
replacement of native heath vegetation by wheatlands increased
regional albedo. As a result, air tended to rise over the dark (more
solar-absorptive and therefore warmer) heathland, drawing moist
air from the wheatlands to the heathlands. The net effect was a
10% increase in precipitation over heathlands and a 30% decrease
in precipitation over croplands (C11.3.3).

Some components of biodiversity affect carbon sequestration
and thus are important in carbon-based climate change mitiga-
tion when afforestation, reforestation, reduced deforestation,
and biofuel plantations are involved (high certainty). Biodiversity
affects carbon sequestration primarily through its effects on spe-
cies characteristics, which determine how much carbon is taken
up from the atmosphere (assimilation) and how much is released
into it (decomposition, combustion). Particularly important are
how fast plants can grow, which governs carbon inputs, and
woodiness, which enhances carbon sequestration because woody
plants tend to contain more carbon, live longer, and decompose
more slowly than smaller herbaceous plants. Plant species also
strongly influence carbon loss via decomposition and their effects

on disturbance. Plant traits also influence the probability of
disturbances such as fire, windthrow, and human harvest, which
temporarily change forests from accumulating carbon to releas-
ing it (C11.3.3).

The major importance of marine biodiversity in climate reg-
ulation appears to be via its effect on biogeochemical cycling
and carbon sequestration. The ocean, through its sheer volume
and links to the terrestrial biosphere, plays a huge role in cycling
of almost every material involved in biotic processes. Of these,
the anthropogenic effects on carbon and nitrogen cycling are
especially prominent. Biodiversity influences the effectiveness of
the biological pump that moves carbon from the surface ocean
and sequesters it in deep waters and sediments. Some of the car-
bon that is absorbed by marine photosynthesis and transferred
through food webs to grazers sinks to the deep ocean as fecal
pellets and dead cells. The efficiency of this trophic transfer and
therefore the extent of carbon sequestration is sensitive to the
species richness and composition of the plankton community

(C11.4.3).

Pest, disease, and pollution control

The maintenance of natural pest control services, which
benefits food security, rural household incomes, and national
incomes of many countries, is strongly dependent on biodiver-
sity. Yields of desired products from agroecosystems may be
reduced by attacks of animal herbivores and microbial patho-
gens, above and below ground, and by competition with weeds.
Increasing associated biodiversity with low-diversity agroecosys-
tems, however, can enhance biological control and reduce the
dependency and costs associated with biocides. Moreover, high-
biodiversity agriculture has cultural and aesthetic value and can
reduce many of the externalized costs of irrigation, fertilizer,
pesticide, and herbicide inputs associated with monoculture
agriculture (C11.3.4, Boxes C11.3 and C11.4).

The marine microbial community provides critical detoxifi-
cation services, but how biodiversity influences them is not
well understood. There is very little information on how many
species are necessary to provide detoxification services, but these
services may critically depend on one or a few species. Some
marine organisms provide the ecosystem service of filtering water
and reducing effects of eutrophication. For example, American
oysters in Chesapeake Bay were once abundant but have sharply
declined—and with them, their filtering ecosystem services.
Areas like the Chesapeake might have much clearer water if large
populations of filtering oysters could be reintroduced. Some
marine microbes can degrade toxic hydrocarbons, such as those
in an oil spill, into carbon and water, using a process that
requires oxygen. Thus this service is threatened by nutrient
pollution, which generates oxygen deprivation (C1 1.4.4).

EcosystTEMS AND HuMaNn WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 29

2. Why is biodiversity loss a concern?

& Biodiversity is essential for ecosystem services and hence
for human well-being. Biodiversity goes beyond the provisioning
for material welfare and livelihoods to include security, resil-
iency, social relations, health, and freedoms and choices. Some
people have benefited over the last century from the conversion
of natural ecosystems to human-dominated ecosystems and
from the exploitation of biodiversity. At the same time, however,
these losses in biodiversity and associated changes in ecosys-
tem services have caused other people to experience declining
well-being, with some social groups being pushed into poverty.

Main Links among Biodiversity,

Ecosystem Services, and Various

Constituents of Human Well-being

The MA identifies biodiversity and the many ecosystem services
that it provides as a key instrumental and constitutive factor
determining human well-being. The MA findings support, with
high certainty, that biodiversity loss and deteriorating ecosystem
services contribute—directly or indirectly—to worsening health,
higher food insecurity, increasing vulnerability, lower material
wealth, worsening social relations, and less freedom for choice
and action.

Food Security

Biological diversity is used by many rural communities
directly as an insurance and coping mechanism to increase flex-
ibility and spread or reduce risk in the face of increasing uncer-
tainty, shocks, and surprises. The availability of this biological
“safety net” has increased the security and resilience of some local
communities to external economic and ecological perturbations,
shocks, or surprises (C6.2.2, C8.2). In a world where fluctuating
commodity prices are more the norm than the exception, eco-
nomic entitlements of the poor are increasingly becoming precar-
ious. The availability of an ecosystem-based food security net
during times when economic entitlements are insufficient to pur-
chase adequate nourishment in the market provides an important

insurance program (C8.1, C6.7).

2.1. PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLDS DEPENDENT ON INDIGENOUS

PLANT—BASED CorinGc MECHANISMS AT KENYAN AND

TANZANIAN SITE (C6 Table 6.4)

Activities that Involve Use Share of Households,

Share of Households,

eee

Coping mechanisms based on indigenous plants are particu-
larly important for the most vulnerable people, who have little
access to formal employment, land, or market opportunities
(C6). For example, investigations of two dryland sites in Kenya
and Tanzania report local communities using wild indigenous
plants to provide alternative sources of food when harvests failed
or when sudden expenses had to be met (such as a hospital bill).
(See Table 2.1.)

Another pathway through which biodiversity can improve
food security is the adoption of farming practices that maintain
and make use of agricultural biodiversity. Biodiversity is impor-
tant to maintaining agricultural production. Wild relatives of
domestic crops provide genetic variability that can be crucial for
overcoming outbreaks of pests and pathogens and new environ-
mental stresses. Many agricultural communities consider
increased local diversity a critical factor for the long-term pro-
ductivity and viability of their agricultural systems. For example,
interweaving multiple varieties of rice in the same paddy has
been shown to increase productivity by lowering the loss from
pests and pathogens.

Vulnerability

The world is experiencing an increase in human suffering
and economic losses from natural disasters over the past sev-
eral decades. Mangrove forests and coral reefs—a rich source
of biodiversity—are excellent natural buffers against floods
and storms. Their loss or reduction in coverage has increased
the severity of flooding on coastal communities. Floods affect
more people (140 million per year on average) than all other
natural or technological disasters put together. Over the past
four decades, the number of “great” disasters has increased by
a factor of four, while economic losses have increased by a
factor of ten. During the 1990s, countries low on the Human
Development Index experienced about 20% of the hazard
events and reported over 50% of the deaths and just 5% of
economic losses. Those with high rankings on the index
accounted for over 50% of the total economic losses and less
than 2% of the deaths (C6, R11, C16).

A common finding from the various sub-
global assessments was that many people living
in rural areas cherish and promote ecosystem
variability and diversity as a risk management

strategy against shocks and surprises (SG11).

of Indigenous Plants Kenya site Tanzania site They maintain a diversity of ecosystem services
(percent) (percent) and are skeptical about solutions that reduce
their options. The sub-global assessments found
All use 94 94 Samy 3 :
that diversity of species, food, and landscapes
Food use 69 54 serve as “savings banks” that rural communities
Non-food use 40 42 use to cope with change and ensure sustainable

30 EcosysTEMS AND HUMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

livelihoods (see Peruvian, Portuguese, Costa
Rican, and India sub-global assessments).

Health

An important component of health is a balanced diet. About
7,000 species of plants and several hundred species of animals
have been used for human food consumption at one time or
another. Some indigenous and traditional communities currently
consume 200 or more species. Wild sources of food remain par-
ticularly important for the poor and landless to provide a some-
what balanced diet (C6, C8.2.2). Overexploitation of marine
fisheries worldwide, and of bushmeat in many areas of the trop-
ics, has lead to a reduction in the availability of wild-caught ani-
mal protein, with serious consequences in many countries for
human health (C4.3.4).

Human health, particularly risk of exposure to many infec-
tious diseases, may depend on the maintenance of biodiversity
in natural ecosystems. On the one hand, a greater diversity of
wildlife species might be expected to sustain a greater diversity of
pathogens that can infect humans. However, evidence is accumu-
lating that greater wildlife diversity may decrease the spread of
many wildlife pathogens to humans. The spread of Lyme disease,
the best-studied case, seems to be decreased by the maintenance
of the biotic integrity of natural ecosystems (C11, C14).

Energy Security

Wood fuel provides more than half the energy used in
developing countries. Even in industrial countries such as Swe-
den and the United States, wood supplies 17% and 3% of total
energy consumption respectively. In some African countries,
such as Tanzania, Uganda, and Rwanda, wood fuel accounts for
80% of total energy consumption (SG-SAfMA). In rural areas,
95% is consumed in the form of firewood, while in urban areas
85% is in the form of charcoal. Shortage of wood fuel occurs in
areas with high population density without access to alternative
and affordable energy sources. In some provinces of Zambia
where population densities exceed the national average of 13.7
persons per square kilometer, the demand for wood has already
surpassed local supply. In such areas, people are vulnerable to
illness and malnutrition because of the lack of resources to heat
homes, cook food, and boil water. Women and children in
rural poor communities are the ones most affected by wood
fuel scarcity. They must walk long distances searching for fire-
wood and therefore have less time for tending crops and school

(C9.4).

Provision of Clean Water

The continued loss of cloud forests and the destruction of
watersheds reduce the quality and availability of water supplied
to household use and agriculture. The availability of clean
drinking water is a concern in dozens of the world’s largest cities
(C27). In one of the best documented cases, New York City took
steps to protect the integrity of watersheds in the Catskills to
ensure continued provision of clean drinking water to 9 million
people. Protecting the ecosystem was shown to be far more cost-

effective than building and operating a water filtration plant.
New York City avoided $6-8 billion in expenses by protecting its
watersheds (C7, R17).

Social Relations

Many cultures attach spiritual and religious values to ecosys-
tems or their components such as a tree, hill, river, or grove
(C17). Thus loss or damage to these components can harm social
relations—for example, by impeding religious and social ceremo-
nies that normally bind people. (See Box 2.1.) Damage to ecosys-
tems, highly valued for their aesthetic, recreational, or spiritual
values can damage social relations, both by reducing the bonding
value of shared experience as well as by causing resentment
toward groups that profit from their damage (S11, SG10).

SoctaL CONSEQUENCES OF BIODIVERSITY
DEGRADATION (SG-SAfMA)

The basic needs of the AmaXhosa people in South Africa are met
by ecosystem services, including fuelwood, medicinal plants, build-
ing materials, cultural species, food supplements, and species of
economic value. When asked by researchers about their relation-
ship with the natural environment, a local responded “I am entirely
dependent on the environment. Everything that | need comes from
this environment” and “[the environment] will be important for-
ever because if you have something from the environment it does
encourage you to love the environment.”

Respondents often described positive emotional and physical
symptoms when the environment is healthy: “When the environment
is healthy, my body and spirit is also happy.” And when describ-
ing people's feelings toward a healthy environment, a respondent
stated that “people love such an environment. They really adore it.
Such an environment makes them feel free.” In addition, respon-
dents described the feelings of peace when walking in the bush and
how they would go into the natural environment to pray.

The beliefs and traditions of the AmaxXhosa play an important
role in guiding resource use and management and encouraging
values to be place-centered. The ancestors are central to this
cosmology, where the very identity of a Xhosa person is based
on performing traditions and rituals for ancestors. The majority of
respondents stated that practicing traditions and thus communi-
cating with ancestors is what is of value to a Xhosa person.

A number of sites and species are fundamental to the perfor-
mance of rituals and maintaining a relationship with the ances-
tors. When respondents were asked what would happen if these
sites were to be destroyed, they replied “It means that the ances-
tors would be homeless.” “That can’t happen here at this village
because our health depends entirely on these sites,” and “it means
that our culture is dead.”

Ecosystems AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 31

Freedom of Choice and Action

Freedom of choice and action within the MA context refers
to individuals having control over what happens and being
able to achieve what they value (CF3). Loss of biodiversity
often means a loss of choices. Local fishers depend on man-
groves as breeding grounds for local fish populations. Loss of
mangroves translates to a loss in control over the local fish stock
and a livelihood they have been pursuing for many generations
and that they value. Another example is high-diversity agricul-
tural systems. These systems normally produce less cash than
monoculture cash crops, but farmers have some control over
their entitlements because of spreading risk through diversity.
High diversity of genotypes, populations, species, functional
types, and spatial patches decreases the negative effects of pests
and pathogens on crops and keeps open possibilities for agrarian
communities to develop crops suited to future environmental
challenges and to increase their resilience to climate variability
and market fluctuations (C11).

Another dimension of choices relates to the future. The loss of
biodiversity in some instances is irreversible, and the value indi-
viduals place on keeping biodiversity for future generations—
the option value—can be significant (CF6, C2). The notion of
having choices available irrespective of whether any of them
will be actually picked is an essential constituent of the freedom
aspect of well-being. However, putting a monetary figure on
option values is notoriously difficult. We can only postulate on
the needs and desires of future generations, some of which can
be very different from today’s aspirations.

Basic Materials for a Good Life and
Sustainable Livelihoods

Biodiversity offers directly the various goods—often plants,
animals, and fungi—that individuals need in order to earn
an income and secure sustainable livelihoods. In addition, it
also contributes to livelihoods through the support it provides
for ecosystem services: the agricultural labor force currently
contains approximately 22% of the world’s population and
accounts for 46% of its total labor force (C26.5.1). For example,
apples are a major cash crop in the Himalayan region in India,
accounting for 60-80% of total household income (SG3). The
region is also rich in honeybee diversity, which played a signifi-
cant role in pollinating field crops and wild plants, thereby
increasing productivity and sustaining ecosystem functions. In
the early 1980s, market demand for particular types of apples
led farmers to uproot pollinated varieties and plant new, sterile
cultivars. The pollinator populations were also negatively
affected by excessive use of pesticides. The result was a reduc-
tion in overall apple productivity and the extinction of many
natural pollinator species (SG3).

32 EcosysTEMS AND HuMaN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

Nature-based tourism (“ecotourism”)—one of the fastest-
growing segments of tourism worldwide—is a particularly
important economic sector in a number of countries and a
potential income source for many rural communities (C17.2.6).
The aggregate revenue generated by nature-based tourism in
Southern Africa was estimated to be $3.6 billion in 2000,
roughly 50% of total tourism revenue (SG-SAfMA). Botswana,
Kenya, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimba-
bwe each generated over $100 million in revenue annually from
nature-based tourism in 2000. In Tanzania, tourism contributed
30% of the total GDP of the country.

Biodiversity also contributes to a range of other industries,
including pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and horticulture. Market
trends vary widely according to the industry and country
involved but many bioprospecting activities and revenues are
expected to increase over the next decades (C10). The current
economic climate suggests that pharmaceutical bioprospecting
will increase, especially as new methods use evolutionary and
ecological knowledge.

Losses of biodiversity can impose substantial costs at local
and national scales. For example, the collapse of the Newfound-
land cod fishery in the early 1990s cost tens of thousands of jobs,
as well as at least $2 billion in income support and retraining.
Recent evidence suggests that the preservation of the integrity of
local biological communities, both in terms of the identity and
the number of species, is important for the maintenance of plant
and animal productivity, soil fertility, and their stability in the
face of a changing environment (C11). Recent estimates from
the MA Portugal sub-global assessment indicate that environ-
mental expenses in that country are increasing at a rate of 3% a

year and are presently 0.7% of GDP (SG-Portugal).

Trade-offs among Biodiversity, Ecosystem
Services, and Human Well-being
When society has multiple goals, many of which depend on
biodiversity, ecosystem services, and the many constituents of
well-being, difficult decisions involving trade-offs among com-
peting goals have to be made. The value of ecosystem services
lost to human society, in the long term, may greatly exceed the
short-term economic benefits that are gained from transforma-
tive activities. In Sri Lanka, for example, the clearing of tropical
forest for agriculture initially reduced the habitat for forest-
adapted anopheline mosquito vectors of malaria. But in due
course, other vector species occupied the changed habitat, con-
tributing to the resurgence of malaria (SG3).

Many of the changes in biodiversity and ecosystems
have been made to enhance the production of specific ecosys-
tem services such as food production. But only 4 of the 24
ecosystem services examined in this assessment have been
enhanced: crops, livestock, aquaculture, and (in recent
decades) carbon sequestration, while 15 services have been
degraded. (See Table 2.2.) The degraded services include cap-
ture fisheries, timber production, water supply, waste treatment

(continued on page 37)

AROUND THE YEAR 2000 (See page 37 for legend.)

Service Sub-
category

Food Crops

Livestock

Capture
fisheries

Aquaculture

Wild plant
and animal
products

Fiber Timber

Cotton,
hemp, silk

Wood fuel

Genetic
resources

Human
Use?

Enhanced
or Degraded?

Provisioning Services

Noies

Food provision has grown faster than overall population growth.
Primary source of growth from increase in production per unit
area but also significant expansion in cropland. Still persistent
areas of low productivity and more rapid area expansion, é.g.,
sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Latin America.

Significant increase in area devoted to livestock in some regions,
but major source of growth has been more intensive, confined
production of chicken, pigs, and cattle.

Marine fish harvest increased until the late 1980s and has
been declining since then. Currently, one quarter of marine fish
stocks are overexploited or significantly depleted. Freshwater
capture fisheries have also declined. Human use of capture
fisheries as declined because of the reduced supply, not
because of reduced demand.

Aquaculture has become a globally significant source of food in
the last 50 years and, in 2000, contributed 27% of total fish
production. Use of fish feed for carnivorous aquaculture species
places an additional burden on capture fisheries.

Provision of these food sources is generally declining as
natural habitats worldwide are under increasing pressure

and as wild populations are exploited for food, particularly by
the poor, at unsustainable levels.

Global timber production has increased by 60% in the last four
decades. Plantations provide an increasing volume of harvested
roundwood, amounting to 35% of the global harvest in 2000.
Roughly 40% of forest area has been lost during the industrial era,
and forests continue to be lost in many regions (thus the service
is degraded in those regions), although forest is now recovering in
some temperate countries and thus this service has been enhanced
(from this lower baseline) in these regions in recent decades.

Cotton and silk production have doubled and tripled
respectively in the last four decades. Production of other
agricultural fibers has declined.

Global consumption of fuelwood appears to have peaked in the
1990s and is now believed to be slowly declining but remains
the dominant source of domestic fuel in some regions.

Traditional crop breeding has relied on a relatively narrow range
of germplasm for the major crop species, although molecular
genetics and biotechnology provide new tools to quantify and
expand genetic diversity in these crops. Use of genetic
resources also is growing in connection with new industries
based on biotechnology. Genetic resources have been lost
through the loss of traditional cultivars of crop species (due in
part to the adoption of modern farming practices and varieties)
and through species extinctions.

. TRENDs IN THE HumMaN UsE oF EcosysTEM SERVICES AND ENHANCEMENT OR DEGRADATION OF THE SERVICE

Chapter

C8.2

C18
C8.2.2
C19

Table 8.4

C8.3.1

C9.ES
€21.1

C9.ES

€26.2.1

(continued on page 34)

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 33

able 2.2. TRENDS IN THE Human Use oF EcosysTEM SERVICES AND ENHANCEMENT OR DEGRADATION OF THE SERVICE
AROUND THE YEAR 2000 (See page 37 for legend.) (continued)

Service Sub- Human Enhanced Notes MA
category Use? or Degraded? Chapter

Biochemicals, A Vv Demand for biochemicals and new pharmaceuticals is growing, C10

natural but new synthetic technologies compete with natural products to

medicines, and meet the demand. For many other natural products (cosmetics,

pharmaceuticals personal care, bioremediation, biomonitoring, ecological

restoration), use is growing. Species extinction and overharvesting
of medicinal plants is diminishing the availability of these resources.

Ornamental NA NA
resources
Fresh water A Vv Human modification of ecosystems (e.g., reservoir creation) has C7

stabilized a substantial fraction of continental river flow, making
more fresh water available to people but in dry regions reducing
river flows through open water evaporation and support to
irrigation that also loses substantial quantities of water.
Watershed management and vegetation changes have also had
an impact on seasonal river flows. From 5% to possibly 25% of
global freshwater use exceeds long-term accessible supplies and
requires supplies either through engineered water transfers or
overdraft of groundwater supplies. Between 15% and 35% of
irrigation withdrawals exceed supply rates. Fresh water flowing
in rivers also provides a service in the form of energy that is
exploited through hydropower. The construction of dams has not
changed the amount of energy, but it has made the energy more
available to people. The installed hydroelectric capacity doubled
between 1960 and 2000. Pollution and biodiversity loss are
defining features of modern inland water systems in many
populated parts of the world.

Regulating Services

Air quality A Vv The ability of the atmosphere to cleanse itself of pollutants has C13.ES
regulation declined slightly since preindustrial times but likely not by more . a
than 10%. The net contribution of ecosystems to this change is
not known. Ecosystems are also a sink for tropospheric ozone,
ammonia, NOx, SOz, particulates, and CH,, but changes in ie
these sinks were not assessed. me

Climate Global A A Terrestrial ecosystems were on average a net source of CO2 C13.ES
regulation during the nineteenth and early twentieth century and became

a net sink sometime around the middle of the last century. The

biophysical effect of historical land cover changes (1750 to

present) is net cooling on a global scale due to increased albedo,

partially offsetting the warming effect of associated carbon

emissions from land cover change over much of that period.

Regional A Vv Changes in land cover have affected regional and local climates (ish!
and local both positively and negatively, but there is a preponderance of C11.3
negative impacts. For example, tropical deforestation and
desertification have tended to reduce local rainfall.

Water regulation A +/- The effect of ecosystem change on the timing and magnitude of
runoff, flooding, and aquifer recharge depends on the ecosystem
involved and on the specific modifications made to the ecosystem.

34 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

Service Sub- Human Enhanced
category Use? _ or Degraded?

Erosion A v

regulation

Water A v

purification

and waste

treatment

Disease A +/-
regulation

Pest regulation A Vv

Pollination A Vv
Natural hazard A v

regulation

;

Notes MA
Chapter

Land use and crop/soil management practices have exacerbated C26
soil degradation and erosion, although appropriate soil

conservation practices that reduce erosion, such as minimum

tillage, are increasingly being adopted by farmers in North

America and Latin America.

Globally, water quality is declining, although in most industrial C7225
countries pathogen and organic pollution of surface waters has C19
decreased over the last 20 years. Nitrate concentration has

grown rapidly in the last 30 years. The capacity of ecosystems

to purify such wastes is limited, as evidenced by widespread

reports of inland waterway pollution. Loss of wetlands has

further decreased the ability of ecosystems to filter and

decompose wastes.

Ecosystem modifications associated with development have C14
often increased the local incidence of infectious diseases,

although major changes in habitats can both increase or

decrease the risk of particular infectious diseases.

In many agricultural areas, pest control provided by natural C11.3
enemies has been replaced by the use of pesticides. Such

pesticide use has itself degraded the capacity of agroecosystems

to provide pest control. In other systems, pest control provided

by natural enemies is being used and enhanced through integrated

pest management. Crops containing pest-resistant genes can

also reduce the need for application of toxic synthetic pesticides.

There is established but incomplete evidence of a global decline Cll

in the abundance of pollinators. Pollinator declines have been Box 11.2
reported in at least one region or country on every continent

except Antarctica, which has no pollinators. Declines in

abundance of pollinators have rarely resulted in complete failure

to produce seed or fruit, but more frequently resulted in fewer

seeds or in fruit of reduced viability or quantity. Losses in

populations of specialized pollinators have directly affected the

reproductive ability of some rare plants.

People are increasingly occupying regions and localities that C16
are exposed to extreme events, thereby exacerbating human C19
vulnerability to natural hazards. This trend, along with the

decline in the capacity of ecosystems to buffer from extreme

events, has led to continuing high loss of life globally and

rapidly rising economic losses from natural disasters.

Cultural Services

Cultural NA NA
diversity

(continued on page 36)

EcosysTEMs AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 35

Table 2.2. TRENDS IN THE HuMAN Use oF EcosysTEM SERVICES AND ENHANCEMENT OR DEGRADATION OF THE SERVICE

AROUND THE YEAR 2000 (See page 37 for legend.) (continued)

Service Sub- Human
category Use?

Enhanced
or Degraded’

Notes MA
Chapter

Cultural Services (continued)

Spiritual and A
religious

values

Knowledge NA
systems

Educational NA
values

Inspiration NA
Aesthetic A
values

Social relations NA
Sense of place NA
Cultural NA
heritage values

Recreation and A
ecotourism

NA
NA
NA

+/-

There has been a decline in the numbers of sacred groves and C17.2.3
other such protected areas. The loss of particular ecosystem

attributes (sacred species or sacred forests), combined with social

and economic changes, can sometimes weaken the spiritual

benefits people obtain from ecosystems. On the other hand,

under some circumstances (e.g., where ecosystem attributes are

causing significant threats to people), the loss of some attributes

may enhance spiritual appreciation for what remains.

The demand for aesthetically pleasing natural landscapes has C17.2.5
increased in accordance with increased urbanization. There has

been a decline in quantity and quality of areas to meet this

demand. A reduction in the availability of and access to natural

areas for urban residents may have important detrimental

effects on public health and economies.

The demand for recreational use of landscapes is increasing, C17.2.6
and areas are increasingly being managed to cater for this use, C19
to reflect changing cultural values and perceptions. However,

many naturally occurring features of the landscape (e.g., coral

reefs) have been degraded as resources for recreation.

Supporting Services

Soil formation t
Photosynthesis T
Primary t
production

36 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WEL1-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

Several global MA systems, including dryland, forest, and
cultivated systems, show a trend of NPP increase for the
period 1981 to 2000. However, high seasonal and inter-annual
variations associated with climate variability occur within this
trend on the global scale

Enhanced
or Degraded?

Service Sub- Human
category Use?

Supporting Services (continued)

There have been large-scale changes in nutrient cycles in C12

Nutrient cycling t t

Notes MA
Chapter

recent decades, mainly due to additional inputs from fertilizers, S7
livestock waste, human wastes, and biomass burning. Inland

water and coastal systems have been increasingly affected by
eutrophication due to transfer of nutrients from terrestrial to

aquatic systems as biological buffers that limit these transfers

have been significantly impaired.

Water cycling

Humans have made major changes to water cycles through
structural changes to rivers, extraction of water from rivers,
and, more recently, climate change.

3 For provisioning services, human use increases if the human consumption of the service increases (e.g., greater food consumption); for regulating and cultural services, human
use increases if the number of people affected by the service increases. The time frame is in general the past 50 years, although if the trend has changed within that time frame, the

indicator shows the most recent trend.

> For provisioning services, we define enhancement to mean increased production of the service through changes in area over which the service is provided (e.g., spread of
agriculture) or increased production per unit area. We judge the production to be degraded if the current use exceeds sustainable levels. For regulating and supporting services,
enhancement refers to a change in the service that leads to greater benefits for people (e.g., the service of disease regulation could be improved by eradication of a vector
known to transmit a disease to people). Degradation of a regulating and supporting services means a reduction in the benefits obtained from the service, either through a change
in the service (e.g., mangrove loss reducing the storm protection benefits of an ecosystem) or through human pressures on the service exceeding its limits (e.g., excessive
pollution exceeding the capability of ecosystems to maintain water quality). For cultural services, degradation refers to a change in the ecosystem features that decreases the
cultural (recreational, aesthetic, spiritual, etc.) benefits provided by the ecosystem. The time frame is in general the past 50 years, although if the trend has changed within that

time frame the indicator shows the most recent trend.
© Low to medium certainty. All other trends are medium to high certainty.

Legend:

A = Increasing (for human use column) or enhanced (for enhanced or degraded column)
Vv = Decreasing (for human use column) or degraded (for enhanced or degraded column)
+/- = Mixed (trend increases and decreases over past 50 years or some components/regions increase while others decrease)

NA =Not assessed within the MA. In some cases, the service was not addressed at all in the MA (such as ornamental resources),
while in other cases the service was included but the information and data available did not allow an assessment of the pattern

of human use of the service or the status of the service.

+ = The categories of “human use” and “enhanced or degraded” do not apply for supporting services since, by definition, these

igen]

services are not directly used by people. (Their costs or benefits would be double-counted if the indirect effects were included.)
Changes in supporting services influence the supply of provisioning, cultural, or regulating services that are then used by people

and may be enhanced or degraded.

and detoxification, water purification, natural hazard protec-
tion, regulation of air quality, regulation of regional and local
climate, regulation of erosion, and many cultural services (the
spiritual, aesthetic, recreational, and other benefits of ecosys-
tems). Modifications of ecosystems to enhance one service gen-
erally have come at a cost to other services that the ecosystem
provided. For example, while the expansion of agriculture and
its increased productivity are a success story of enhanced pro-
duction of one key ecosystem service, this success has come

at high and growing costs in terms of trade-offs with other

ecosystem services, both through the direct impact of land
cover change and as a result of water withdrawals for irrigation
and release of nutrients into rivers. Globally, roughly 15-35%
of irrigation withdrawals are estimated to be unsustainable (/ow
to medium uncertainty). The impacts of these trade-offs among
ecosystem services affect people in different ways. An aquacul-
ture farmer, for instance, may gain material welfare from man-
agement practices that increase soil salinization and thereby
reduce rice yields and threaten food security for nearby subsis-
tence farmers.

Ecosystems AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 37

Trade-off analysis aided by qualitative and quantitative values
for biodiversity and ecosystem services can help decision-makers
make intelligent decisions among competing goals (R17). (See
Figure 2.1.) Such analysis can identify management strategies that
generate efficient outcomes in which it is not possible to increase
one objective without decreasing another. Second, it can show
the extent to which current decisions are inefficient and help
identify opportunities for improving the status quo. Third, it
illustrates the nature of the trade-offs between goals once the effi-
ciency frontier has been reached.

Values of Biodiversity and Ecosystem

Services for Human Well-being

The importance of biodiversity and natural processes in pro-
ducing ecosystem services that people depend on is not cap-
tured in financial markets. Unlike goods bought and sold in
markets, many ecosystem services do not have markets or readily
observable prices. However, lack of a price does not mean lack of
value. A substantial body of research on nonmarket valuation is
now available for some ecosystem services, including clean drink-
ing water, recreation, or commercially harvested species. Exis-

gure 2.1. ErricleENcy FRONTIER ANALYSIS OF SPECIES

PERSISTENCE AND ECONOMIC RETURNS

The production possibility shows feasible combinations of species
persistence and economic returns for a sample landscape based
on the Willamette Basin in Oregon in the United States. The Figure
shows results for 97 terrestrial vertebrates found in the basin and
economic returns from agriculture and forestry production. Each
land parcel can be put into a biological reserve, agriculture, or
forestry. The land use pattern determines the value of economic
returns from agriculture and forestry production and the pattern of
habitat. For each species, persistence depends on the extent and
pattern of suitable habitat (R1 7).

Threshold of economic

Number of species remaining production over which species
extinction increases dramatically

of 97 terrestrial vertebrates |
90

85
80

70
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Economic returns in million dollars

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

38 EcosysTEMs AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

tence value of species and other “non-use” values pose a greater
challenge to those who would try to measure the complete value
of conserving biodiversity and natural processes. The fact that
ecosystems are dynamic and complex, as well as the fact that
human preferences change through time, also present difficulties
for attempts to value natural systems. Combinations of irrevers-
ible actions, such as species extinction, and uncertainty give rise
to option value (such as the value of maintaining flexibility, keep-
ing options open, until uncertainty is resolved). Though clear in
theory, getting reasonable estimates of option value is difficult in
practice (C2.3). Better quantification of the benefits derived
from ecosystems would provide greater impetus for biodiversity
protection and create a more transparent picture of the equitabil-
ity of the distribution of benefits.

Private and social values of conserving biodiversity and natu-
ral systems often differ widely. The private use value of biodiver-
sity and ecosystem services by individuals will typically ignore
the “external” benefits of conservation that accrue to society in
general. For example, a farmer may benefit from intensive use of
the land but generally does not bear all the consequences caused
by leaching of excess nutrients and pesticides into ground or
surface water, or the consequences of loss of habitat for native
species. If private decision-makers are not given the incentives to
value the larger social benefits of conservation, their decisions
will often result in inadequate conservation (C5.4).

The indirect values of biodiversity conservation can be highly
significant in comparison with the direct economic values
derived from a particular area. (See Box 2.2.) In existing eco-
nomic studies of changes to biodiversity in specific locations
(such as the conversion of mangrove forests, degradation of coral
reefs, and clear-felling of forests), the costs of ecosystem conyer-
sion are often found to be significant and sometimes exceed the
benefits of the habitat conversion. Despite this, in a number of
these cases conversion was promoted because the value of the lost
ecosystem services—the indirect value of biodiversity conserva-
tion—was not internalized. In other instances, subsidies dis-
torted the relative costs and benefits and provided the incentives
to destroy biodiversity (C5).

The depletion and degradation of many ecosystem services
represents the loss of a capital asset that is poorly reflected in
conventional indicators of economic growth or growth in
human well-being (C2.3.5). A country could cut its forests and
deplete its fisheries, and this would show only as a positive gain
to GDP, despite the loss of the capital asset. (GDP measures the
flow of economic benefits from the use of these resources, but the
depletion of the capital asset is not reflected.) Moreover, many
ecosystem services are available freely to those who use them
(fresh water in aquifers, for instance, and the use of the atmo-
sphere as a sink for pollutants) and so again their degradation is

Relatively few studies have compared the
total economic value of ecosystems under
alternate management regimes. The results
of several that attempted to do so are
shown in the Figure. In each case where
the total economic value of sustainable
management practices was compared with
management regimes involving conversion
of the ecosystem or unsustainable prac-
tices, the benefit of managing the ecosys-
tem more sustainably exceeded that of the
converted ecosystem even though the pri-
vate benefits—that is, the actual monetary
benefits captured from the services enter-
ing the market—would favor conversion or
unsustainable management. These stud-
ies are consistent with the understanding
that market failures associated with eco-
system services lead to greater conversion
of ecosystems than is economically justi-
fied. However, this finding would not hold at
all locations. For example, the value of con-
version of an ecosystem in areas of prime
agricultural land or in urban regions often
exceeds the total economic value of the
intact ecosystem (although even in dense
urban areas, the TEV of maintaining some
“green space” can be greater than develop-
ment of these sites) (C5).

& Conversion of tropical forest to small-
scale agriculture or plantations (Mount Cam-
eroon, Cameroon). Maintenance of the forest
with lowimpact logging provided social bene-
fits (NWFPs, sedimentation control, and flood
prevention) and global benefits (carbon stor-
age plus option, bequest, and existence val-
ues) across the five study sites totaling some
$3,400 per hectare. Conversion to small-
scale agriculture yielded the greatest private
benefits (food production), of about $2,000
per hectare. Across four of the sites, con-
version to oil palm and rubber plantations
resulted in average net costs (negative ben-
efits) of $1,000 per hectare. Private bene-
fits from cash crops were only realized in this
case because of market distortions.

@ Conversion of a mangrove system to
aquaculture (Thailand). Although conver-
sion for aquaculture made sense in terms of
short-term private benefits, it did not once
external costs were factored in. The global
benefits of carbon sequestration were con-

Economic Costs aND BENEFITS OF EcosysTEM CONVERSION (C5 Box 5.2)

sidered to be similar in intact and degraded
systems. However, the substantial social ben-
efits associated with the original mangrove
cover—from timber, charcoal, NWFPs, off-
shore fisheries, and storm protection—fell to
almost zero following conversion. Summing
all measured goods and services, the TEV of
intact mangroves was a minimum of $1,000
and possibly as high as $36,000 per hect-
are, compared with the TEV of shrimp farm-
ing, which was about $200 per hectare.

@ Draining freshwater marshes for agricul-
ture (Canada). Draining freshwater marshes
in one of Canada’s most productive agri-
cultural areas yielded net private benefits
in large part because of substantial drain-
age subsidies. However, the social benefits
of retaining wetlands arising from sustain-
able hunting, angling, and trapping greatly
exceeded agricultural gains. Consequently,
for all three marsh types considered, TEV
was on average $5,800 per hectare, com-

Economic BENEFITS UNDER ALTERNATE MANAGEMENT PRACTICES

Net present value in dollars per hectare

Intact wetland

pared with $2,400 per hectare for con-
verted wetlands.

= Use of forests for commercial timber
extraction (Cambodia). Use of forest areas
for swidden agriculture and extraction of
non-wood forest products (including fuel-
wood, rattan and bamboo, wildlife, malva
nuts, and medicine) as well as ecological
and environmental functions such as water-
shed, biodiversity, and carbon storage pro-
vided a TEV ranging of $1,300-4,500 per
hectare (environmental services accounted
for $590 of that while NWFPs provided
$700-3,900 per hectare). However, the pri-
vate benefits associated with unsustainable
timber harvest practices exceeded private
benefits of NWFP collection. Private bene-
fits for timber harvest ranged from $400 to
$1,700 per hectare, but after accounting
for lost services the total benefits were from
$150 to $1,100 per hectare, significantly
less than the TEV of more sustainable uses.

SS Sustainably managed ecosystems
| Converted ecosystems

4000 Sustainable
forestry
3.000
Intensive
farming Small-scale
farming
2 000 a
Traditional
Intact forest use
mangroves gi

Wetland

Canada Cameroon

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

EcosysTeEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 39

Tropical Forest

Shrimp
farming

Unsustainable
timber harvest

Tropical Forest
Cambodia

Mangrove
Thailand

not reflected in standard economic measures. When changes to
these natural capital assets are factored into measures of the
inclusive wealth of nations, they significantly change the balance
sheet for countries with economies largely dependent on natural
resources. Some countries that appeared to have positive growth
in the 1970s and 1980s, for example, actually experienced a net
loss of capital assets, effectively undermining the sustainability of
any gains they may have achieved.

The Distributional Impacts of
Biodiversity Loss and Ecosystem Change
Biodiversity use, change, and loss have improved well-being
for many social groups and individuals. But people with low
resilience to ecosystem changes—mainly the disadvantaged—
have been the biggest losers and witnessed the biggest increase
in not only monetary poverty but also relative, temporary
poverty and the depth of poverty (C5, C6, R17). See Box 2.3

for a description of various types of poverty.

ConcEPTS AND MEasurRES OF POVERTY

Relative poverty is the state of deprivation defined by social stan-
dards. It is fixed by a contrast with others in the society who are not
considered poor. Poverty is then seen as lack of equal opportuni-
ties. It is based on subjective measures of poverty.

Depth of poverty is a measure of the average income gap of the
poor in relation to a certain threshold. It defines how poor the poor
are. It gives the amount of resources needed to bring all poor peo-
ple to the poverty-line level.

Temporary poverty is characterized by a short-term deprivation,
usually seasonal, of water or food.

Monetary poverty is an insufficiency of income or monetary
resources. Most indicators like the U.S. dollar a day indicator or
national poverty lines are defined in those terms.

Multidimensional poverty is conceived as a group of irreducible
deprivations that cannot be adequately expressed as income insuf-
ficiency. It combines basic constituents of well-being in a composite
measure, such as the Human Poverty Index.

Other characteristics of poverty commonly used in the literature
include rural and urban poverty, extreme poverty (or destitution),
female poverty (to indicate gender discrimination), and food-ratio
poverty lines (with calorie-income elasticities). Other indices such
as the FGT (Foster, Greer, and Thorbecke) or the Sen Index, which
combine both dimensions of incidence and depth of poverty, are
also widely used. The type of poverty experienced by individuals
will therefore differ for different rates and levels of biodiversity and
ecosystem services loss and if the loss is transitory or permanent.

40 EcosystEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

Many communities depend on a range of biological prod-
ucts for their material welfare. In addition, the transfer of
ownership or use rights to ecosystem services like timber, fish-
ing, and mining to privileged groups by governments have also
excluded local communities from the use of these ecosystem
services (R8). Provisions for ensuring the equitable distribu-
tion of monetary benefits from the use of biological products
are an issue of major concern. Even in cases where equitable
provisioning has been made, implementation is being impaired
by weak and ineffective institutions (C10).

Poor people have historically disproportionately lost access
to biological products and ecosystem services as demand for
those services has grown. Coastal habitats are often converted
to other uses, frequently for aquaculture ponds or cage cultur-
ing of highly valued species such as shrimp and salmon.
Despite the fact that the area is still used for food production,
local residents are often displaced from their fishing grounds,
and the fish produced are usually not for local consumption
but for export. Coastal residents often no longer have access to
cheap protein or sources of income (C18). The development
of shrimp aquaculture has displaced local fishers who are not
able to enter the capital- and technology-intensive shrimp
fisheries (SG3). Food security and overall well-being is much
better in situations where local communities—with particular
focus on the poor and the disadvantaged—were involved
and made partners in the access, use, and management
of biodiversity.

Changes in the equity structure of societies can have
impacts on ecosystem services. Differential access to
resources may also help to explain why some people living
in environmental resource-rich areas nevertheless rank low
in measures of human well-being. For example, economic lib-
eralization in Viet Nam resulted in the development of a class
of entrepreneurs with markedly greater access to capital. The
poorer fishers were unable to enter the capital and technology-
intensive shrimp fishery that developed. Furthermore, the
ecological changes precipitated by the expansion of shrimp
aquaculture reduced the capacity of the ecosystem to support
the traditional fish stocks, further exacerbating the inequity
(SG3.7).

The increase in international trade of biological products
has improved the well-being for many social groups and indi-
viduals, especially in countries with well-developed markets
and trade rules and among people in developing countries
who have access to the biological products. However, many
groups have not benefited from such trade. Some people who
live near and are dependent on biodiversity-rich areas have
experienced a drop in their well-being rather than an increase.
Examples include the many indigenous groups and local com-
munities who have relied on these products and the ecosystem
services they support for many of the constituents of well-

being. Weak and inefficient institutional structures that over-
see the equitable distribution of benefits are key reasons for the
inequitable distribution of benefits at the national and local
levels. In addition, structural adjustment programs played a
key role in pushing the poor further into destitution and forc-
ing many to have no choice but to further stress ecosystem ser-
vices (R17).

Conflicts between competing social groups or individuals
over access to and use of biological products and ecosystem
services have contributed to declines in well-being for some
groups and improvements for others. Sometimes different
social groups have a conflict over how a given bundle of eco-
system services or biological products ought to be used and
shared. Although many such conflicts have been managed
cooperatively, it is also common for one group to impose its
preferred outcome on the others, leading to an improvement
in well-being for one group at the expense of others. For
example, if mountain communities convert forests into agri-
cultural lands, they may reduce downstream water quality.
When ecosystem change is linked to well-being change
through this highly complex structure of interdependencies,
there are both winners and losers. Some groups improve
and other groups decline (C6). Box 2.4 describes some con-
flicts that emerged in Chile over the mining industry and
local communities.

One of the main reasons some countries, social groups, or
individuals—especially the disadvantaged—are more
severely affected by biodiversity and ecosystem changes is
limited access to substitutes or alternatives. When the qual-
ity of water deteriorates, the rich have the resources to buy
personal water filters or imported bottled water that the poor
can ill afford. Similarly, urban populations in developing
countries have easier access to clean energy sources because of
easy access to the electrical grid, while rural communities have
fewer choices. Poor farmers often do not have the option of
substituting modern methods for services provided by biodi-
versity because they cannot afford the alternatives. And, sub-
stitution of some services may not be sustainable, and may
have negative environmental and human health effects. For
example, the reliance on toxic and persistent pesticides to
control certain pests can have negative effects on the provision
of services by the cultivated system and other ecosystems con-
nected to the cultivated system (C.26.2). Many industrial
countries maintain seed banks in response to the rapid rate
of loss of crop genetic diversity and to make existing genetic
diversity more readily available to plant breeders. Apart from

the network of seed banks maintained in developing countries
by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural
Research, for many developing countries creating such banks
could pose a problem when electricity supplies are unreliable,
fuel is costly, and there is a lack of human capacity (R17).
Place-based or micro-level data and not macro-level or
aggregated data provide more useful information to identify
disadvantaged communities being affected by biodiversity
and ecosystem changes. Most poverty statistics are only
available at an aggregate level. These tend to hide pockets
of poverty existing sometimes within traditionally defined
“wealthy” regions or provinces. Therefore, using aggregate
data to understand and establish links between biodiversity
loss, ecosystem changes, and well-being can be quite mislead-

ing (C5).

ConFLicts BETWEEN THE MINING SECTOR AND

Locat COMMUNITIES IN CHILE

The Salar de Atacama, Chile, is a salty wetland within the driest
desert in the world. Surface water is limited. The present major
concern is over groundwater usage and the extent to which the
exploitation is sustainable. The economic activities in this region
include mining, agriculture, and tourism, all of which depend on the
quantity and quality of available water. The Salar de Atacama holds
over 40% of world lithium reserves; mining provides 12% of local
employment and two thirds of the regional GDP. It also consumes
65% of the water used in the region. Tourism is the second larg-
est source of employment and income, and tourist facilities need
fresh water. Local communities rely on water for subsistence agri-
culture and livestock raising. Most subsistence farmers do not
have enough resources to buy water rights when bidding against
the mining companies. Hence the shortage of water is generating
major conflicts over access and ownership rights among compet-
ing users (SG.SDM).

EcosysTeMs AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 41

3. What are the current trends and drivers of biodiversity loss?

@ Across the range of biodiversity measures, current rates
of loss exceed those of the historical past by several orders of
magnitude and show no indication of slowing.

& Biodiversity is declining rapidly due to land use change,
climate change, invasive species, overexploitation, and pollu-
tion. These result from demographic, economic, sociopolitical,
cultural, technological, and other indirect drivers.

B While these drivers vary in their importance among
ecosystems and regions, current trends indicate a continuing
loss of biodiversity.

Recent and Current Trends in Biodiversity
Across the range of biodiversity measures, current rates of
change and loss exceed those of the historical past by several
orders of magnitude and show no indication of slowing. At
large scales, across biogeographic realms and ecosystems
(biomes), declines in biodiversity are recorded in all parts of
the habitable world. Among well-studied groups of species,
extinction rates of organisms are high and increasing (medium
certainty), and at local levels both populations and habitats are
most commonly found to be in decline. (C4)

CULTIVATION AND PASTURE

Two biogeographic realms are omitted due to lack of data: Oceania and Antarctic. In the
Nearctic, the amount of land under cultivation and pasture has stabilized, with no net change

in cover since 1950.

in percent of 1950 area

-8% -6 4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8%

Neotropical

Australasian

Indo-Malay
Afrotropical
Palearctic
Decrease 4 Increase
No change

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

42 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

gure 3.1. PERCENTAGE CHANGE 1950-90 IN LAND AREA OF BIOGEOGRAPHIC
REALMS REMAINING IN NaTURAL CONDITION OR UNDER

Virtually all of Earth’s ecosystems have now been dramat-
ically transformed through human actions. More land was
converted to cropland in the 30 years after 1950 than in the
150 years between 1700 and 1850 (C26). Between 1960 and
2000, reservoir storage capacity quadrupled (C7.2.4) and, as
a result, the amount of water stored behind large dams is
estimated to be three to six times the amount held by rivers
(C7.3.2). Some 35% of mangroves have been lost in the last
two decades in countries where adequate data are available
(encompassing about half of the total mangrove area)
(C19.2.1). Roughly 20% of the world’s coral reefs have
been destroyed and an additional 20% have been degraded
(C19.2.1). Although the most rapid changes in ecosystems
are now taking place in developing countries, industrial
countries historically experienced comparable changes.

The biomes with the highest rates of conversion in the
last half of the 20th century were temperate, tropical, and
flooded grasslands and tropical dry forests (more than 14%
lost between 1950 and 1990) (C4.4.3). Areas of particularly
rapid change in terrestrial ecosystems over the past two
decades include (C28.2):
® the Amazon basin and Southeast
Asia (deforestation and expansion of
croplands);

@ Asia (land degradation in drylands);
and

@ Bangladesh, Indus Valley, parts of
Middle East and Central Asia, and the
Great Lakes region of Eastern Africa.

Habitat conversion to agricultural use
has affected all biogeographical realms. In
all realms (except Oceania and Antarc-
tica), at least a quarter of the area had

Cultivated been converted to other land uses by 1950
Pasture (C4.4.4), and in the Indo-Malayan realm
W Natural almost half of the natural habitat cover
had been converted. In the 40 years from
é } 1950 to 1990, habitat conversion has con-
By blogecgraphie tinued in nearly all realms. (See Figure

3.1.) The temperate northern realms of
the Nearctic and Palearctic are currently
extensively cultivated and urbanized; how-
ever, the amount of land under cultivation
and pasture seems to have stabilized in the

Note: Oceania and
Antarctic are omitted
due to lack of data

Nearctic, with only small increases in the
Palearctic in the last 40 years. The decrease
in extensification of land under agricul-
tural use in these areas is counterbalanced
by intensification of agricultural practices
in order to ensure continued food produc-
tion for expanding human populations

(C8, C26). Within the tropics, rates of land conversion to agricul-
tural use range from very high in the Indo-Malayan realm to
moderate in the Neotropics and the Afrotropics, where large
increases in cropland area have taken place since the 1950s. Aus-
tralasia has relatively low levels of cultivation and urbanization,
but these have also increased in the last 40 years at a similar rate
to those of the Neotropics.

The majority of biomes have been greatly modified. Between
20% and 50% of 9 out of 14 global biomes have been trans-
formed to croplands. Tropical dry forests were the most affected
by cultivation between 1950 and 1990, although temperate
grasslands, temperate broadleaf forests, and Mediterranean for-
ests each experienced 55% or more conversion prior to 1950.
Biomes least affected by cultivation include boreal forests and
tundra. (See Figure 3.2.) While cultivated lands provide many
provisioning services (such as grains, fruits, and meat), habitat
conversion to agriculture typically leads to reductions in local
native biodiversity (C4.4.3).

Rates of human conversion among biomes have remained
similar over at least the last century. For example, boreal forests
had lost very little native habitat cover up to 1950 and have lost
only a small additional percentage since then. In contrast, the
temperate grasslands biome had lost nearly 70% of its native
cover by 1950 and lost an additional 15.4% since then. Two

biomes appear to be exceptions to this pattern: Mediterranean
forests and temperate broadleaf forests. Both had lost the major-
ity of their native habitats by 1950 but since then have lost less
than 2.5% additional habitat. These biomes contain many of the
world’s most established cities and most extensive surrounding
agricultural development (Europe, the United States, the Medi-
terranean basin, and China). It is possible that in these biomes
the most suitable land for agriculture had already been converted
by 1950 (C4.4.3).

Over the past few hundred years, humans have increased the
species extinction rate by as much as three orders of magnitude
(medium certainty). This estimate is only of medium certainty
because the extent of extinctions of undescribed taxa is
unknown, the status of many described species is poorly known,
it is difficult to document the final disappearance of very rare
species, and there are extinction lags between the impact of a
threatening process and the resulting extinction. However, the
most definite information, based on recorded extinctions of
known species over the past 100 years, indicates extinction rates
are around 100 times greater than rates characteristic of species
in the fossil record (C4.4.2). Other less direct estimates, some of
which model extinctions hundreds of years into the future, esti-
mate extinction rates 1,000 to 10,000 times higher than rates
recorded among fossil lineages. (See Figure 3.3.)

Figure 3.2. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN Native Hasirart Loss By 1950 AND ADDITIONAL LossES BETWEEN

1950 AND 1990 (C4 Fig 4.26)

Loss 1950-90, in percentage

18 TROPICAL AND
SUB-TROPICAL DRY
BROADLEAF FORESTS
e
8 FLOODED GRASSLANDS e
AND SAVANNAS @ TEMPERATE
; : ery
TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL ;
GRASSLANDS, SAVANNAS, Si SUAS

12 AND SHRUBLANDS
10

TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL
@ CONIFEROUS FORESTS
6 DESERTS AND
XERIC SHRUBLANDS @
MONTANE GRASSLANDS
4 AND SHRUBLANDS @ @ MANGROVES MEDITERRANEAN FORESTS,
@ TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL WOODLANDS, AND SCRUB
MOIST BROADLEAF FORESTS e
) Seneae @ TEMPERATE TEMPERATE BROADLEAF
‘te Seu RerSnonESTs @ AND MIXED FORESTS
01 @ TUNDRA
400 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 %

Native land cover in 1950, in percentage

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 43

3. Species ExTINCTION Rates (Adapted from C4 F

“Distant past” refers to average extinction rates Extinctions per thousand species per millennium

as calculated from the fossil record. “Recent 100 000 _—

past” refers to extinction rates calculated from pisient ected a “Gomes

known extinctions of species (lower estimate) or (fossil record) jown extincti

known extinctions plus “possibly extinct” species 10 000 Projected future

extinction rate is
more than ten times
higher than current rate

(upper bound). A species is considered to be

“possibly extinct” if it is believed to be extinct

by experts, but extensive surveys have not yet 1 000
been undertaken to confirm its disappearance.

“Future” extinctions are model-derived estimates Current extinction rate

using a variety of techniques, including species- 100 is up to one thousand
area models, rates at which species are shifting ena than the
to increasingly more threatened categories, BA ca

extinction probabilities associated with the IUCN 104 than one went extinct

categories of threat, impacts of projected habitat every, millennium

loss on species currently threatened with habitat \

loss, and correlation of species loss with energy 1

consumption. The time frame and species groups gy Long-term average

involved differ among the “future” estimates, but extinction rate
in general refer to either future loss of species
based on the level of threat that exists today,
or current and future loss of species as a result

of habitat changes taking place over the period

of roughly 1970 to 2050. Estimates based on Marine Mammals Mammals Birds Amphibians All species
the fossil record are low certainty. The lower SPECIES
bound estimates for known extinctions are high Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

certainty, while the upper bound estimates are
medium certainty; lower bound estimates for modeled extinctions are low certainty, and upper bound estimates are speculative.

Between 12% and 52% of species within well-studied higher
DIFFERENT BIOGEOGRAPHIC REALMS (C4) taxa are threatened with extinction, according to the IUCN
Red List. Less than 10% of named species have been assessed in

|. Rep List INDIcEs FoR Birps, 1988-2004, IN

terms of their conservation status. Of those that have, birds have
the lowest percentage of threatened species, at 12%. The patterns

Le of threat are broadly similar for mammals and conifers, which
have 23% and 25% of species threatened, respectively. The
situation with amphibians looks similar, with 32% threatened,
but information is more limited, so this may be an underesti-
mate. Cycads have a much higher proportion of threatened
species, with 52% globally threatened. In regional assessments,

92 ae Newinieal taxonomic groups with the highest proportion of threatened

= — Afrotropical species tended to be those that rely on freshwater habitats (C4.4).
=== Australasian/Oceanic Threatened species show continuing declines in conservation
s=== Palearctic ¢ ; P

Gis | SE status, and species threat rates tend to be highest in the realms
== Indo-Malay with highest species richness (C4.4). (See Figures 3.4 and 3.5.)

a seca Threatened vertebrates are most numerous in the biomes with

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 intermediate levels of habitat conversion. Low-diversity biomes

The Red List Index illustrates the relative rate at which sets of species (such as boreal forest and tundra) have low Species richness and

change in overall threat status (i.e., projected relative extinction risk), based
on population, range size, and trends as quantified by categories on the
IUCN Red List.

Source: Butchart et al. 2005

44 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

Density DistripuTion Map oF GLoBALLy THREATENED Birp Species Marrep at a RESOLUTION OF

QUARTER-DEGREE GRID CELL (C4 Fig 4.25)

Dark orange colors correspond to higher richness, dark blue to lowest. (n=1,213)

Oceanic

Number of globally threatened bird species within a quarter-degree grid cell:

Oo. 5 10 20. 25
JODOSSESSERRR Ree

rene
low Bird species density

>
high

low threat rates and have experienced little conversion. Very highly
converted habitats in the temperate zone had lower richness than
tropical biomes, and many species vulnerable to conversion may
have gone extinct already. It is in the high-diversity, moderately
converted tropical biomes that the greatest number of threatened
vertebrates are found (C4.4.3). (See Figure 3.6.)

Among a range of higher taxa, the majority of species are
currently in decline. Studies of amphibians globally, African
mammals, birds in agricultural lands, British butterflies, Carib-
bean corals, waterbirds, and fishery species show the majority of
species to be declining in range or number. Increasing trends in
species can almost always be attributed to management interven-
tions, such as protection in reserves, or to elimination of threats
such as overexploitation, or they are species that tend to thrive in
human-dominated landscapes (C4.4.1). An aggregate indicator
of trends in species populations—the Living Planet Index—uses
published data on trends in natural populations of a variety of
wild species to identify overall trends in species abundance.
Although more balanced sampling would enhance its reliability,
the trends are all declining, with the highest rate in freshwater

habitats. (See Figure 3.7.)

~~’ Neotropical

Oceanic

| Indo-Malay

Afrotropical

<-2== &

Australasian
Antarctic aa

“_

Source: BirdLife International

Biogeographic realm boundaries

Genetic diversity has declined globally, particularly among
domesticated species (C26.2.1). In cultivated systems, since
1960 there has been a fundamental shift in the pattern of intra-
species diversity in farmers’ fields and farming systems as a
result of the Green Revolution. Intensification of agricultural
systems coupled with specialization by plant breeders and the
harmonizing effects of globalization have led to a substantial
reduction in the genetic diversity of domesticated plants and
animals in agricultural systems. The on-farm losses of genetic
diversity of crops have been partially offset by the maintenance
of genetic diversity in gene banks. A third of the 6,500 breeds
of domesticated animals are threatened with extinction due to
their very small population sizes (C.26.2). In addition to culti-
vated systems, the extinction of species and loss of unique pop-
ulations that has taken place has resulted in the loss of unique
genetic diversity contained in those species and populations.
This loss reduces overall fitness and adaptive potential, and it
limits the prospects for recovery of species whose populations
are reduced to low levels (C4.4).

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 45

CONVERTED BY 1950 (C4)

Number of threatened vertebrate species

0 500 1000 1500

Mediterranean forests, woodlands, and scrub

Temperate grasslands, savannas, and shrublands

2000 2500 3000

Temperate broadleaf and mixed forests : pe ]
Tropical and sub-tropical dry broadleaf forests Ea)
5 Flooded grasslands and savannas SRG S|
Tropical and sub-tropical grasslands, savannas, and ghrublands

Tropical and sub-tropical,coniferous forests»)
| Mangroves:

Deserts and Xeric shrublands

Montane grasslands and shrublands

Temperate coniferous forests

a | Boreal forests / Taiga
Tundra

0 10 20 30

Tropical and sub-tropical moist broadleaf forests

40 50 60 70

Percent of each habitat converted by 1950

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Globally, the net rate of conversion of some ecosystems has
begun to slow, and in some regions ecosystems are returning to
more natural states largely due to reductions in the rate of
expansion of cultivated land, though in some instances such
trends reflect the fact that little habitat remains for further con-
version. Generally, opportunities for further expansion of culti-
vation are diminishing in many regions of the world as the finite
proportion of land suitable for intensive agriculture continues to
decline (C26.ES). Increased agricultural productivity is also low-
ering pressures for agricultural expansion. Since 1950, cropland
areas in North America, Europe, and China have stabilized, and
even decreased in Europe and China (C26.1.1). Cropland areas
in the former Soviet Union have decreased since 1960 (C26.1.1).
Within temperate and boreal zones, forest cover increased by
approximately 3 million hectares per year in the 1990s, although
about half of this increase consisted of forest plantations
(C21.4.2).

Translating biodiversity loss between different measures is
not simple: rates of change in one biodiversity measure may
underestimate or overestimate rates of change in another.

The scaling of biodiversity between measures is not simple, and

46 EcosysTEMS AND Human WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

this is especially significant in the relationship between habitat
area and species richness. Loss of habitat initially leads to less
species loss than might be expected, but depending on how
much habitat remains, rates of loss of habitat can underestimate
rates of loss of species (C2.2.4, C4.5.1).

Biotic homogenization, defined as the process whereby
species assemblages become increasingly dominated by a small
number of widespread species, represents further losses in
biodiversity that are often missed when only considering
changes in absolute numbers of species. Human activities have
both negative and positive impacts on species. The many
species that are declining as a result of human activities tend to
be replaced by a much smaller number of expanding species
that thrive in human-altered environments. The outcome is a
more homogenized biosphere with lower species diversity at a
global scale. One effect is that in some regions where diversity
has been low because of isolation, the species diversity may
actually increase—a result of invasions of non-native forms
(this is true in continental areas such as the Netherlands as well
as on oceanic islands). Recent data also indicate that the many
losers and few winners tend to be non-randomly distributed
among higher taxa and ecological groups, enhancing
homogenization (C4.4).

While biodiversity loss has been a natural part of the history
of Earth’s biota, it has always been countered by origination
and, except for rare events, has occurred at extremely slow rates.
Currently, however, loss far exceeds origination, and rates are
orders of magnitude higher than average rates in the past. Recall
that biodiversity loss is not just global extinction, such as that
faced by many threatened and endangered species, but declines in
genetic, ecosystem, and landscape diversity are considered bio-
diversity loss as well. Even if every native species were retained in
an ecological preserve, if the majority of the landscape has been
converted to high-intensity monoculture cropland systems, then
biodiversity has declined significantly. Landscape homogenization
is linked to biotic homogenization (C4).

The patterns of threat and extinction are not evenly distrib-
uted among species but tend to be concentrated in particular
ecological or taxonomic groups. Ecological traits shared by
species facing high extinction risk include high trophic level, low
population density, long lifespan, low reproductive rate, and
small geographical range size (C4.4.2). The degree of extinction
risk also tends to be similar among related species, leading to the
likelihood that entire evolutionary radiations can and have been
lost. The majority of recorded species extinctions since 1500
have occurred on islands. However, predictions of increasing
numbers of future extinctions suggest a significant
shift from island to continental areas (C4.4.2).

international environmental treaties) and that happen
intermittently (such as droughts, wars, and economic crises).
Reviews of case studies of deforestation and desertification reveal
that the most common type of interaction is synergetic factor
combinations: combined effects of multiple drivers that are
amplified by reciprocal action and feedbacks (S7.4).

Drivers interact across spatial, temporal, and organizational
scales, and any specific ecosystem change is driven by a network
of interactions among different drivers. Though some of the
elements of these networks are global, the actual set of interac-
tions that brings about an ecosystem change is more or less spe-
cific to a particular place. For example, a link between increasing
producer prices and the extension of production can be found in
many places throughout the world. The strength of this effect,
however, is determined by a range of location-specific factors
including production conditions, the availability of resources
and knowledge, and the economic situation of the farmer
(S7.4). No single conceptual framework captures the broad
range of case study evidence about the interactions among driv-
ers. Based on the findings of the sub-global assessments of the
MA and recent literature, some examples of causal linkages for
ecosystem change can be given (SG-Portugal, SG-SAfMA).
(See Figures 3.8 and 3.9 and Box 3.1.)

Drivers of Biodiversity Change
and Their Trends
Biodiversity change is caused by a range of drivers.
A driver is any natural or human-induced factor
that directly or indirectly causes a change in an
ecosystem. A direct driver unequivocally influences
ecosystem processes. An indirect driver operates more
diffusely, by altering one or more direct drivers.
Important direct drivers affecting biodiversity are
habitat change, climate change, invasive species,
overexploitation, and pollution (CF4, C3, C4.3, $7).
No single measure or indicator represents the
totality of the various drivers. Some direct drivers
of change have relatively straightforward indicators,
such as fertilizer usage, water consumption,
irrigation, and harvests. Indicators for other drivers,
including invasion by non-native species, climate
change, land cover conversion, and landscape
fragmentation, are not as well developed, and data to
measure them are not as readily available (S7).
Changes in biodiversity and in ecosystems are
almost always caused by multiple, interacting driv-
ers. Changes are driven by combinations of drivers
that work over time (such as population and
income growth interacting with technological
advances that lead to climate change) or level of
organization (such as local zoning laws versus

3.7. THe Lrvine PLaner INDEX, 1970-2000

The index currently incorporates data on the abundance of 555 terrestrial species,
323 freshwater species, and 267 marine species around the world. While the index
fell by some 40% between 1970 and 2000, the terrestrial index fell by about 30%,
the freshwater index by about 50%, and the marine index by around 30% over the
same period.

Population Index = 100 in 1970
120

10
Terrestrial species
Marine species
80

Freshwater species

The Living Planet Index is an indicator
of the state of the world’s biodiversity:
it measures trends in populations of
vertebrate species living in terrestrial,
freshwater, and marine ecosystems

All vertebrate species
(Living Planet Index)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Source: WWF, UNEP-WCMC

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 47

European Union ————————_ Small
integration farm size

European Common
Agricultural Policy

World Trade Organization
agreements
Reduced — .
Political context agricultural Abandonment <——-—
revenues |
Economic growth Internal

|
i eee

Urban and
infrastructure

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Narura Resources (Adapted from SG7 Fig 7.7)

ids : r-Land use changes

Afforestation —————>

. SUMMARY OF INTERACTIONS AMONG Drivers ASSOCIATED WITH THE OVEREXPLOITATION OF

Fire

Erosion

Increased
water pollution
and consumption

Coastal
ecosystem
degradation

SO Commercial logging —

Increased
international markets Overexploitation
for natural resources Fisheries of natural resources
— Rake ea
fisheries
Strive for
new places and resources
Crop
la/ loop
Shift
to new regions Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

48 EcosysteMs AND HuMAN WELI-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

Direct Drivers: EXAMPLE FROM SOUTHERN
AFRICAN SUB-GLOBAL ASSESSMENT (SG-SAfMA)

The direct drivers of biodiversity loss in southern Africa include the
impacts of land use change, alien invasives, overgrazing, and over-
harvesting—all of which have already had a large impact on the
region's biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being,
and all of which are likely to spread in the absence of interventions.

The dominant direct driver of ecosystem change in southern
Africa is considered to be widespread land use change that in some
cases has led to degradation. Forests and woodlands are being
converted to croplands and pastures at a rate somewhat slower
than in Southeast Asia and the Amazon during the 1990s, but nev-
ertheless sufficiently fast to endanger ecosystem services at a
local scale. Half of the region consists of drylands, where overgraz-
ing is the main cause of desertification.

In the first half of the twenty-first century, climate change is a real
threat to water supplies, human health, and biodiversity in southern
Africa. The threats arise partly because the projected warming may,
over large areas, be accompanied by a drying trend, and partly
because of the low state of human welfare and weak governance,
which increases vulnerability of humans to climate change. Although
some of these threats have slowed in some regions (afforestation
with monocultures of alien species in South Africa has decreased,
for example), some have accelerated elsewhere (afforestation
with alien species in Mozambique has increased, for instance, due
to favorable growing conditions and weak regulation). Thus, the
region's biodiversity remains vulnerable to land use change. In addi-
tion, the more subtle problem of land degradation is considered a
bigger threat in the region.

Several studies indicate that the biodiversity of southern Africa is
at risk. There is now evidence, for example, that it is declining in the
northern part of its range, but stable in the southern part, as pre-
dicted by the global change models. In addition, there is experimen-
tal evidence that the recorded expansion of woody invasions into
grasslands and savannas may be driven by rising global CO2 concen-
trations. The ability of species to disperse and survive these pres-
sures will be hampered by a fragmented landscape made inhospi-
table by human activities. The Assessments of Impacts and Adapta-
tions to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors project is
currently analyzing response options that may conserve biodiversity
under future climate and land cover scenarios in southern Africa.

Indirect Drivers

Biodiversity change is most clearly a consequence of the direct
drivers. However, these reflect changes in indirect drivers—the
root causes of changes in ecosystems. These can be classified into
the following broad categories: change in economic activity,
demographic change, sociopolitical factors, cultural and religious
factors, and scientific and technological change.

§ Global economic activity increased nearly sevenfold between
1950 and 2000 (S7.SDM), and in the MA scenarios it is pro-
jected to grow a further three- to sixfold by 2050. The many pro-
cesses of globalization have amplified some driving forces of
changes in ecosystem services and attenuated other forces by
removing regional barriers, weakening national connections, and
increasing the interdependence among people and between
nations (S7.2.2).

@ Global population doubled in the past 40 years, reaching
6 billion in 2000 (S7.2.1). It is projected to grow to 8.1—9.6
billion by 2050, depending on the scenario. Urbanization
influences consumption, generally increasing the demand
for food and energy and thereby increasing pressures on
ecosystems globally.

@ Over the past 50 years, there have been significant changes
in sociopolitical drivers, including a declining trend in central-
ized authoritarian governments and a rise in elected democra-
cies, which allows for new forms of management, in particular
adaptive management, of environmental resources (S7.2.3).

Culture conditions individuals’ perceptions of the world, and
by influencing what they consider important, it has implica-
tions for conservation and consumer preferences and suggests
courses of action that are appropriate and inappropriate. The
development and diffusion of scientific knowledge and technol-
ogies can on the one hand allow for increased efficiency in
resource use and on the other hand can provide the means to
increase exploitation of resources (S7.2.4, S7.2.5).

Direct Drivers

Direct drivers vary in their importance within and among
systems and in the extent to which they are increasing their
impact. Historically, habitat and land use change have had the
biggest impact on biodiversity across biomes. Climate change is
projected to increasingly affect all aspects of biodiversity, from
individual organisms, through populations and species, to eco-
system composition and function. Pollution, especially the depo-
sition of nitrogen and phosphorus, but also including the impact
of other contaminants, is also expected to have an increasing
impact, leading to declining biodiversity across biomes. Overex-
ploitation and invasive species have been important as well
and continue to be major drivers of changes in biodiversity
(C4.3). (See Figure 3.10.)

For terrestrial ecosystems, the most important direct driver of
change in the past 50 years has been land cover change (C4.3,
SG7). Only biomes relatively unsuited to crop plants, such as
deserts, boreal forests, and tundra, are relatively intact (C4).
Deforestation and forest degradation are currently more exten-
sive in the tropics than in the rest of the world, although data on
boreal forests are especially limited (C21). Approximately 10—
20% of drylands are considered degraded (medium certainty),

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 49

e 3.10. Main Direct Drivers

The cell color indicates the impact to date of each driver on biodiversity in each biome over the past 50-100 years. The arrows indicate
the trend in the impact of the driver on biodiversity. Horizontal arrows indicate a continuation of the current level of impact; diagonal and
vertical arrows indicate progressively increasing trends in impact. This Figure is based on expert opinion consistent with and based on
the analysis of drivers of change in various chapters of the assessment report of the Condition and Trends Working Group. This Figure
presents global impacts and trends that may be different from those in specific regions.

Habitat Climate Invasive Over- pierenciel
change change species exploitation phosphorus)
on s|_+|_+| +|
|
— it ot | mm
Dryland Se
Tropical grassland 4
and savanna
oe - ii |
a ns eS
ve mt -m-t
St aa
to a
ve ‘i = | a a

Driver's impact on biodiversity

over the last century Driver's current trends

Low Decreasing impact

Moderate Baek Continuing impact
High ae Increasing impact

, Very rapid increase
Very high Seg of the impact

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

50 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

with the majority of these areas in Asia (C22). A
study of the southern African biota shows how
degradation of habitats led to loss of biodiversity
across all taxa. (See Figure 3.11.)

Cultivated systems (defined in the MA to be
areas in which at least 30% of the landscape is in
croplands, shifting cultivation, confined livestock
production, or freshwater aquaculture in any par-
ticular year) cover 24% of Earth’s surface. (See
Figure 3.12.) In 1990, around 40% of the crop-
land is located in Asia; Europe accounts for 16%,
and Africa, North America, and South America
each account for 13% (S7).

For marine ecosystems, the most important
direct driver of change in the past 50 years, in
the aggregate, has been fishing. Fishing is the
major direct anthropogenic force affecting the
structure, function, and biodiversity of the oceans
(C18). Fishing pressure is so strong in some
marine systems that over much of the world the
biomass of fish targeted in fisheries (including that
of both the target species and those caught inci-
dentally) has been reduced by 90% relative to lev-
els prior to the onset of industrial fishing. In these
areas a number of targeted stocks in all oceans
have collapsed—having been overfished or fished

above their maximum sustainable levels. Recent

e 3.11. Errect oF INCREASING LanpD Use INTENSITY ON THE

FRACTION OF INFERRED POPULATION 300 YEARS AGO OF
DIFFERENT Taxa THAT REMAIN

The vertical axis percentages refer to the share of southern Africa under the respective
land uses. Human landscape modifications can also lead to increases of populations
under conditions of light use (see amphibians).

Average remaining percentage of population under each land use
compared with the pre-colonial period (index =100), 300 years ago

Aan Protected LightUse Degraded Cultivated Plantation Urban —» Land use type
100
80
In the
| predominantly
60 Bird semiarid
~~ Birds landscapes of
—— Amphibians southem
404 —— Reptiles Africa, urban
areas provide
—— Mammals artificial
204 ~~ Plants waterpoints for
amphibians
02
ee ee eee eee
More Land use intensity More
natural artificial

Protected areas: assumed to have intact biodiversity and therefore used as a reference
Light use: natural vegetation productively used (e.g., for grazing) within the limits of sustainability
Degraded: natural vegetation where intensity of use exceeds the natural productive capacity

studies have demonstrated that global fisheries
landings peaked in the late 1980s and are now
declining despite increasing effort and fishing
power, with little evidence of this trend reversing
under current practices (C18.3). In addition to
the landings, the average trophic level of global
landings is declining, which implies that we are
increasingly relying on fish that originate from the lower part
of marine food webs (C18.3). (See Figures 3.13 and 3.14.)
Destructive fishing is also a factor in shallower waters; bottom
trawling homogenizes three-dimensional benthic habitats and
dramatically reduces biodiversity.

For freshwater ecosystems, depending on the region, the most
important direct drivers of change in the past 50 years include
physical changes, modification of water regimes, invasive spe-
cies, and pollution. The loss of wetlands worldwide has been
speculated to be 50% of those that existed in 1900. However, the
accuracy of this figure has not been established due to an absence
of reliable data (C20.3.1). Massive changes have been made in
water regimes. In Asia, 78% of the total reservoir volume was
constructed in the last decade, and in South America almost 60%
of all reservoirs were built since the 1980s (C20.4.2). Water with-
drawals from rivers and lakes for irrigation or urban or industrial
use increased sixfold since 1900 (C7.2.2). Globally, humans now
use roughly 10% of the available renewable freshwater supply,

Cultivated: cropland and planted pastures
Plantation: monocultures of exotic trees, mainly eucalyptus and pine species
Urban: built-up urban and high-impact mining landscapes

Source: Scholes and Biggs 2004

although in some regions, such as the Middle East and North
Africa, humans use 120% of renewable supplies—the excess is
obtained through mining groundwater (C7.2.3). The introduc-
tion of non-native invasive species is now a major cause of species
extinction in freshwater systems. It is well established that the
increased discharge of nutrients causes intensive eutrophication
and potentially high levels of nitrate in drinking water and that
pollution from point sources such as mining has had devastating
impacts on the biota of inland waters (C20.4).

Apparently stable areas of habitat may suffer from fragmen-
tation, with significant impacts on their biodiversity (C4.3.1).
Fragmentation is caused by natural disturbance (such as fires or
wind) or by land use change and habitat loss, such as the clearing
of natural vegetation for agriculture or road construction, which
divides previously continuous habitats. Larger remnants, and

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 51

. EXTENT OF CULTIVATED MS, 2000 (C26)

EQUATOR EQUATOR

(9) Cultivated Systems:
Areas in which at least
30% of the landscape
is cultivated

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

3. DECLINE IN Tropuic LEVEL OF FisHERIES CATCH SINCE 1950 (C18)

A trophic level of an organism is its position in a food chain. Levels are numbered according to how far particular organisms are along the chain
from the primary producers (level 1), to herbivores (level 2), to predators (level 3), to carnivores or top carnivores (level 4 or 5). Fish at higher
trophic levels are typically of higher economic value. The decline in the trophic level harvested is largely a result of the overharvest of fish at higher
trophic levels.

Mean trophic level Mean trophic level Mean trophic level
3.6 3.6

3.5

3.4

0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

2 y"2 EcosysTEMS AND HUMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

remnants that are close to other remnants, are less affected by
fragmentation. Small fragments of habitat can only support small
populations, which tend to be more vulnerable to extinction.
Moreover, habitat along the edge of a fragment has a different
climate and favors different species to the interior. Small frag-
ments are therefore unfavorable for those species that require
interior habitat, and they may lead to the extinction of those spe-
cies. Species that are specialized to particular habitats and those
whose dispersal abilities are weak suffer from fragmentation more
than generalist species with good dispersal ability (C4.3.1).
Fragmentation affects all biomes, but especially forests (see Fig-
ure 3.15) and major freshwater systems (see Figure 3.16).

Invasive alien species have been a major cause of extinction,
especially on islands and in freshwater habitats, and they con-
tinue to be a problem in many areas. In freshwater habitats, the
introduction of alien species is the second leading cause of spe-
cies extinction, and on islands it is the main cause of extinction
over the past 20 years, along with habitat destruction. Awareness
about the importance of stemming the tide of invasive alien spe-
cies is increasing, but effective implementation of preventative
measures is lacking. The rate of introductions continues to be
extremely high; for example, in New Zealand plant introductions
alone have occurred at a rate of 11 species per year since Euro-
pean settlement in 1840 (C4.3.2).

Overexploitation remains a serious threat to many species
and populations. Among the most commonly overexploited spe-
cies or groups of species are marine fish and invertebrates, trees,
and animals hunted for meat. Most industrial fisheries are either

. EstimaTED GLOBAL Marine FisH Catcu,

1950-2001 (C18 Fig 18.3)

In this Figure, the catch reported by governments is in some cases
adjusted to correct for likely errors in data.

Million tons

0
{

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

fully or overexploited, and the impacts of overharvesting are
coupled to destructive fishing techniques that destroy habitat, as
well as associated ecosystems such as estuaries and wetlands. Even
recreational and subsistence fishing has contributed to what is
known as the “shifting baselines” phenomenon, in which what
we consider the norm today is dramatically different from pre-
exploitation conditions.

Many of the current concerns with overexploitation of bush-
meat (wild meat taken from the forests by local people for income
or subsistence) are similar to those of fisheries, where sustainable
levels of exploitation remain poorly understood and where the
offtake is difficult to manage effectively. Although the true extent
of exploitation is poorly known, it is clear that rates of offtake are
extremely high in tropical forests. The trade in wild plants and
animals and their derivatives is poorly documented but is esti-
mated at nearly $160 billion annually. It ranges from live animals
for the food and pet trade to ornamental plants and timber.
Because the trade in wild animals and plants crosses national
borders, the effort to regulate it requires international cooperation
to safeguard certain species from overexploitation (C4.3.4).

Over the past four decades, nutrient loading has emerged as
one of the most important drivers of ecosystem change in ter-
restrial, freshwater, and coastal ecosystems. While the intro-
duction of nutrients into ecosystems can have both beneficial
and adverse effects, the beneficial effects will eventually reach a
plateau as more nutrients are added (for example, additional
inputs will not lead to further increases in crop yield), while the
harmful effects will continue to grow. Synthetic production of
nitrogen fertilizer has been the key driver for the remarkable
increase in food production of the past 50 years (S7.3). (See Fig-
ure 3.17.) The total amount of reactive, or biologically available,
nitrogen created by human activities increased ninefold between
1890 and 1990, with most of that increase taking place in the
second half of the century in association with increased use of
fertilizers (C7.3.2).

More than half of all the synthetic nitrogen fertilizers ever
used on Earth have been used since 1985 (R9.2). Humans now
produce more reactive nitrogen than is produced by all natural
pathways combined (R9.ES). Nitrogen application has increased
fivefold since 1960, but as much as 50% of the nitrogen fertil-
izer applied may be lost to the environment. Phosphorus appli-
cation has increased threefold since 1960, with steady increase
until 1990, followed by leveling off at a level about equal to
applications in 1980. (See Figure 3.18.) These changes are mir-
rored by phosphorus accumulation in soils, which can serve as
an indicator of eutrophication potential for freshwater lakes and
phosphorus-sensitive estuaries. Potential consequences include
eutrophication of freshwater ecosystems, hypoxia in coastal
marine ecosystems, nitrous oxide emissions contributing to global

(continued on page 56)

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 53

5. EsriMATES OF FoREST FRAGMENTATION DUE TO ANTHROPOGENIC Causes (C4)

: yam Foe

Asia and
Northwest Pacific

Africa

Southeast Asia,
Australia, and Pacific

| The analysis was made only in forest
| biomes. Black zones are nonforested
| areas in the analysis neighborhood.

Source: Wade et al. 2003 2

54 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

Unfragmented _-_»
forest

Forest
highly fragmented
by human land uses

Forest

highly fragmented ——>
by non-forest
natural land cover

South America

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 55

FRAGMENTATION AND FLow IN Major Rivers (C20)

EQUATOR

River channel fragmentation
and flow regulation

) Unfragmented

|] Moderately fragmented

9) Highly fragmented Ff
| No data or not assessed eg

climate change, and air pollution by NO, in urban areas. Occur-
rence of such problems varies widely in different regions (S7.3).
(See Figure 3.19.)

Climate change in the past century has already had a measur-
able impact on biodiversity. Observed recent changes in climate,
especially warmer regional temperatures, have already had signifi-
cant impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems, including causing
changes in species distributions, population sizes, the timing of
reproduction or migration events, and an increase in the fre-
quency of pest and disease outbreaks. Many coral reefs have
undergone major, although often partially reversible, bleaching
episodes when local sea surface temperatures have increased dur-
ing one month by 0.5—1° Celsius above the average of the hottest
months (R13.1.3). Precipitation patterns have changed spatially
and temporally, and global average sea level rose 0.1—-0.2 meters
(S7.ES). By the end of the century, climate change and its
impacts may be the dominant direct driver of biodiversity loss
and changes in ecosystem services globally.

56 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

EQUATOR

Source: World Resources Institute 2004 =

Recent studies, using the climate envelope/species-area tech-
nique, estimated that the projected changes in climate by 2050
could lead to an eventual extinction of 15-52% of the subset
of 1,103 endemic species (mammals, birds, frogs, reptiles,
butterflies, and plants) analyzed (R13.1.3). While the growing
season in Europe has lengthened over the last 30 years, in some
regions of Africa the combination of regional climate changes
and anthropogenic stresses has led to decreased cereal crop pro-
duction since 1970. Changes in fish populations have been
linked to large-scale climate oscillations; El Nifio events, for
instance, have affected fisheries off the coasts of South America
and Africa, and decadal oscillations in the Pacific have affected
fisheries off the west coast of North America (R13.1.3).

The scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change project an increase in global mean surface tem-
perature of 2.0-6.4° Celsius above preindustrial levels by 2100,
increased incidence of floods and droughts, and a rise in sea level
of an additional 8-88 centimeters between 1990 and 2100.
(See Figure 3.20.)

Harm to biodiversity will grow worldwide with increasing
rates of change in climate and increasing absolute amounts of
change. In contrast, some ecosystem services in some regions
may initially be enhanced by projected changes in climate (such
as increases in temperature or precipitation), and thus these

regions may experience net benefits at low levels of climate
change. As climate change becomes more severe, however, the
harmful impacts on ecosystem services outweigh the benefits in
most regions of the world. The balance of scientific evidence sug-
gests that there will be a significant net harmful impact on eco-
system services worldwide if global mean surface temperature
increases more than 2° Celsius above preindustrial levels or at
rates greater than 0.2° Celsius per decade (medium certainty) .Cli-
mate change is projected to further adversely affect key develop-
ment challenges, including providing clean water, energy
services, and food; maintaining a healthy environment; and con-
serving ecological systems and their biodiversity and associated

ecological goods and services (R13.1.3).

@ Climate change is projected to exacerbate the
loss of biodiversity and increase the risk of extinc-
tion for many species, especially those already at
risk due to factors such as low population num-
bers, restricted or patchy habitats, and limited
climatic ranges (medium to high certainty).

@ Water availability and quality are projected
to decrease in many arid and semiarid regions
(high certainty).

@ The risk of floods and droughts is projected
to increase (high certainty).

@ The reliability of hydropower and biomass
production is projected to decrease in some
regions (high certainty).

@ The incidence of vector-borne diseases
such as malaria and dengue and of waterborne
diseases such as cholera is projected to increase
in many regions (medium to high certainty),
and so too are heat stress mortality and threats
of decreased nutrition in other regions, along
with severe weather traumatic injury and death
(high certainty).

B Agricultural productivity is projected to
decrease in the tropics and sub-tropics for almost
any amount of warming (/ow to medium cer-
tainty), and there are projected adverse effects
on fisheries.

® Projected changes in climate during the
twenty-first century are very likely to be without
precedent during at least the past 10,000 years
and, combined with land use change and the
spread of exotic or alien species, are likely to limit
both the capability of species to migrate and the
ability of species to persist in fragmented habitats.

Present-day threats are often multiple and of
greater intensity than historical threats. The
susceptibility of an ecological community to a
given threat will depend on the events of the

past that have shaped the current biota. If the current threats are
novel, they will have dramatic effects on populations, since spe-

cies will lack adaptations. Even if drivers are similar to past driv
ers (climate, for example, has always been variable to some
degree), the intensity of some current-day drivers is unprece-
dented (such as the rates and extent of habitat change). Further-
more, today’s drivers of extinction are often multiple—land use
change, emerging disease, and invasive species are all occurring
together, for instance. Because exposure to one threat type often
makes a species more susceptible to a second, exposure to a sec-
ond makes a species more susceptible to a third, and so on, con-
secutive, multiple threats to species may have unexpectedly

dramatic impacts on biodiversity ($7.4, C4.3).

e 3.17. TRENDs IN GLOBAL USE oF NITROGEN FERTILIZER,

1961—2001 (million tons) (S7 Fig 7.16)

Million tons
90

The dip at the end of the 1980s
is due to the economic disruptions
accompanying the dissolution of
the Soviet Union

70
World
60

50
Developing countries

30 Industrial countries 4

Eastern Europe and

10 former Soviet Union

0
1961 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2002

4 excluding Eastern Europe aiid former Soviet Union Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

3.18. WorLpD PHospuHateE FERTILIZER UsE, 1961-2000

(million tons) (S7 Fig 7.18)

Million tons
50

Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union
40

World
30 |
Developing countries

industrial countries @
10

0
1961 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2002

4 excluding Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

EcosysTeEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 57

3.19. Estimarep Tota Reactive NirroGEN DEPOSITION FROM THE

ATMOSPHERE (WET AND Dry) IN 1860, EARLY 1990S, AND PROJECTED

FOR 2050 (milligrams of nitrogen per square meter per year) (R9 Fig 9.2)

Atmospheric deposition
currently accounts for roughly
12% of the reactive nitrogen
entering terrestrial and coastal
marine ecosystems globally,
although in some regions,
atmospheric deposition
accounts for a higher
percentage (about 33% in

the United States). (Note: the
projection was included in the
original study and is not based
on MA scenarios.)

5 25 50

Source: Galloway et al. 2004

58 EcosysTEMS AND Human WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

500

750 1000 2000 5000

Each driver has a characteristic spa-
tial and temporal scale at which it
affects ecosystem services and human
well-being. Climate change may oper-
ate on a spatial scale of a large region;
political change may operate at the
scale of a nation or a municipal district.
Sociocultural change typically occurs
slowly, on a time scale of decades, while
economic forces tend to occur more
rapidly. Because of the variability in
ecosystems, their services, and human
well-being in space and time, there may
be mismatches or lags between the scale
of the driver and the scale of its effects
on ecosystem services (S7, SG7.3.5).

The fate of declining species and
habitats will depend on sources of
inertia and the speed of their response
to management interventions. Natural
sources of inertia correspond to the
time scales inherent to natural systems;
for example, recovery of a population
cannot proceed more quickly than the
average turnover or generation time,
and established recovery will often take
several generations. On top of this is
anthropogenic inertia resulting from the
time scales inherent in human institu-
tions for decision-making and imple-
mentation. For most systems, these two
sources of inertia will lead to delays of
years, and more often decades, in slow-
ing and reversing a declining biodiver-
sity trend. This analysis assumes that
the drivers of change could indeed be
halted or reversed in the near term. Yet
currently there is little evidence that any
of the direct or indirect drivers are slow-
ing or that any are well controlled at the
large to global scale. More significantly,
we have net yet seen all of the conse-
quences of changes that occurred in the

past (C4, RS, $7, S10).

The delay between a driver affecting a system and its conse- about half of the species losses may occur over a period of 100 to
quences for biodiversity change can be highly variable. In the 1,000 years. Therefore, humans have the opportunity to deploy
relatively well studied case of species extinctions, habitat loss is active habitat restoration practices that may rescue some of the
known to be a driver with particularly long lag times. In studies species that otherwise would have been in a trajectory toward
of tropical forest bird species the time from habitat fragmenta- extinction. Notwithstanding this, habitat restoration measures
tion to species extinction has been estimated to have a half-life of will not be likely to save the most sensitive species, which will
decades to hundreds of years. Overall, these results suggest that become extinct soon after habitat loss (C4.5.2).

‘e 3.20. HisToRICAL AND PROJECTED VARIATIONS IN EARTH'S SURFACE TEMPERATURE

Estimated global temperature averages for the past 1,000 years, with projections to 2100 depending on various plausible scenarios
for future human behavior.

Differences in temperature in °Celsius
from the 1990 value

ee Direct Model

Estimation of temperature based on indirect measurements measurements _ projections
<—_!__> «>

EEE
5.54-

5.0 is

Range of IPCC
40 Si scenario projections Lil

35 TI
3.0
25

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2002

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 59

4. What is the future for biodiversity and ecosystem services under

plausible scenarios?

@ In the range of plausible scenarios explored by the MA,
biodiversity will continue to be lost at extremely high rates over
the next 50 years. Given inertia in the indirect drivers and in
ecosystems, this loss cannot be halted over this time period.
Nonetheless, opportunities exist to reduce the rate of loss of
biodiversity and associated ecosystem services if society
places an emphasis on ecosystem protection, restoration,
and management.

Statements of certainty in the following conclusions are conditional
statements in that they refer to level of certainty or uncertainty in the
particular projection should that scenario and its associated changes

in drivers unfold.

Global Scenarios and Ecosystem Change

The scenarios developed by the MA project continued loss of
biodiversity, with attendant changes in ecosystems services and
declines in human well-being in some regions and populations.
The MA scenarios address the consequences of different plausible
futures for ecosystem services and human well-being (S5). (See
Box 4.1.) These futures were selected to explore a wide range of
contexts under which development will be pursued, as well as a
wide range of approaches to development. Two basic contrasts
are explored, one in which the world becomes increasingly
globalized and the other in which it becomes increasingly

regionalized. In the first case we see a focus on global markets
and policies and on supranational institutions fostering interna-
tional cooperation, while in the regionalized world there is an
emphasis on local and national institutions and on regional mar-
kets, and little attention is paid to the global commons.

In terms of approaches, the scenarios focus either on a reactive
attitude toward environmental problems or on futures that
emphasize proactive management of ecosystems and their ser-
vices. In the reactive approach, the environmental problems that
threaten human well-being are dealt with only after they become
apparent, and, in general, people believe that the necessary
knowledge and technology to address environmental challenges
will emerge or can be developed as needed. The proactive ecosys-
tem management approach focuses on ecosystem engineering or
adaptive management to maximize the delivery of ecosystem ser-
vices while reducing the impact of human activities and to
enhance ecosystem resilience.

Habitat loss caused by land use change will lead, with high
certainty, to continuing decline in the local and global diversity
of some taxa, especially vascular plants, in all four scenarios
($10.2). Habitat conversion between 1970 and 2050 ranges from
13% to 20% (see Figure 4.1) as projected by the IMAGE model,
leading to local and global extinctions as populations approach
equilibrium with the remnant habitat. Analysis using the well-
established species-area relationship indicates that the number of

AN OUTLINE OF THE Four MA ScENaRIOS

It is important to remember that no scenario
will match the future as it actually occurs.
None of the scenarios represents a “best”
path or a “worst” path. There could be com-
binations of policies and practices that pro-
duce significantly better or worse outcomes
than any of these scenarios. The future will
represent a mix of approaches and conse-
quences described in the scenarios, as well
as events and innovations that could not be
imagined at the time of writing (S5).

The focus on alternative approaches to
sustaining ecosystem services distinguishes
the MA scenarios from previous global sce-
nario exercises. The four approaches were
developed based on interviews with leaders
in NGOs, governments, and business on five

continents, on scenario literature, and on pol-

icy documents addressing linkages between

ecosystem change and human well-being.
The approach to scenario development used
in the MA consists of a combination of qual-
itative storyline development and quantita-
tive modeling based on assumptions about
the evolution of indirect drivers such as eco-
nomic and population growth (S6).

The Global Orchestration scenario
explores the possibilities of a world in
which global economic and social poli-
cies are the primary approach to sus-
tainability. The recognition that many of the
most pressing global problems seem to have
roots in poverty and inequality evokes fair
policies to improve the well-being of those in
poorer countries by removing trade barriers
and subsidies. Environmental problems are
dealt with in an ad-hoc reactive manner, as
it is assumed that improved economic well-

60 EcosysTEMS AND Human WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

being will eventually create demand for and
the means to achieve environmental protec-
tion. Nations also make progress on global
environmental problems, such as greenhouse
gas emissions and the depletion of pelagic
marine fisheries. However, some local and
regional environmental problems are exac-
erbated. The results for ecosystem services
are mixed. Human well-being is improved in
many of the poorest countries (and in some
rich countries), but a number of ecosystem
services deteriorate by 2050, placing at risk
the long-term sustainability of the well-being
improvements.

The Order from Strength scenario
examines the outcomes of a world in
which protection through boundaries
becomes paramount. The policies enacted
in this scenario lead to a world in which the

species lost at equilibrium (that is, the number
of species that can be supported by the habitat

remaining by 2050) is likely to be approximately

10-15% of the species present in 1970 (ow cer-
tainty), and other factors such as overharvesting,
invasive species, pollution, and climate change
will further increase the rate of extinction. The
two scenarios that take a more proactive
approach to the environment ( TechnoGarden
and Adapting Mosaic) have more success in
reducing terrestrial biodiversity loss in the near
future than the two scenarios that take a reactive
approach to environmental issues (S10.2). The
scenario with a focus on security through
boundaries (Order from Strength) has the highest
rate of biodiversity loss. It is important to note
that all the projected extinctions will not have
occurred by 2050.

Habitat and vascular plant populations are
projected to be lost in the MA scenarios at the
fastest rate in warm mixed forests, savannas,
scrub, tropical forests, and tropical woodlands
(high certainty) (S10.2). Ina few biomes,
expected changes post-1990 are greater that
those seen in the past half-century. Regions that
will lose species at the lowest rate include those
with low human impact as well as those where
major land use changes and human intervention
have already occurred, such as the Palearctic
(S10.2). (See Figures 4.2 and 4.3.) Tropical

1.1. Losses oF HasitaT as a REsutt oF LAND Use CHANGE
BETWEEN 1970 AND 2050 AND REDUCTION IN THE

Equitisprium NUMBER OF VASCULAR PLANT SPECIES
UNDER THE MA Scenarios (S10.2)

Extinctions of vascular plants will occur between now and sometime after 2050, when
populations reach equilibrium with the remaining habitat.

Relative losses Order from
in percent of 1970 numbers Strength

Global
as Orchestration Adapting
Mosaic
10 a
; 3)
1 2 1 2

TechnoGarden

[

| 1: habitat loss (in percent of 1970 habitat)

| 2: biodiversity loss (in percent of 1970 total number of vascular plant species) |
t =|

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

rich protect their borders, attempting to con-
fine poverty, conflict, environmental degrada-
tion, and deterioration of ecosystem services
to areas outside the borders. These prob-
lems often cross borders, however, imping-
ing on the well-being of those within.

The Adapting Mosaic scenario
explores the benefits and risks of envi-
ronmentally proactive local and regional
management as the primary approach
to sustainability. In this scenario, lack of
faith in global institutions, combined with
increased understanding of the importance
of resilience and local flexibility, leads to
approaches that favor experimentation and
local control of ecosystem management.
The results are mixed, as some regions do
a good job managing ecosystems but oth-
ers do not. High levels of communication and

interest in learning leads regions to compare
experiences and learn from one another.
Gradually the number of successful experi-
ments begins to grow. While global problems
are ignored initially, later in the scenario they
are approached with flexible strategies based
on successful experiences with locally adap-
tive management. However, some systems
suffer long-lasting degradation.

The TechnoGarden scenario explores
the potential role of technology in pro-
viding or improving the provision of
ecosystem services. The use of technol-
ogy and the focus on ecosystem services
is driven by a system of property rights and
valuation of ecosystem services. In this sce-
nario, people push ecosystems to their limits
of producing the optimum amount of ecosys-
tem services for humans through the use of

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 61

technology. Often, the technologies they use
are more flexible than today's environmental
engineering, and they allow multiple needs
to be met from the same ecosystem. Provi-
sion of ecosystem services in this scenario
is high worldwide, but flexibility is low due

to high dependence on a narrow set of opti-
mal approaches. In some cases, unexpected
problems created by technology and ero-
sion of ecological resilience lead to vulner-
able ecosystem services, which may break-
down. In addition, the success in increasing
the production of ecosystem services often
undercuts the ability of ecosystems to sup-
port themselves, leading to surprising inter-
ruptions of some ecosystem services. These
interruptions and collapses sometimes have
serious consequences for human well-being.

4.2.. RELATIVE Loss oF BIODIVERSITY OF VASCULAR PLANTS BETWEEN 1970

AND 2.050 AS A RESULT OF LAND Use CHANGE FOR DIFFERENT BIOMES
AND REALMS IN THE ORDER FROM STRENGTH SCENARIO (S10.2)

Extinctions will occur between now and sometime after 2050, when populations reach equilibrium
with remaining habitat. Note that the biomes in this Figure are from the IMAGE model (see Figure
4.3) and are slightly different from the biomes mentioned elsewhere in this report.

Land use changes causing habitat
loss are associated primarily with fur-
ther expansion of agriculture and, sec-
ondarily, with the expansion of cities
and infrastructure (S9.8). This expan-
sion is caused by increases in popula-

Percent of 1970 total number of species
0 -5 - 10 -15 -20 -25

Sas

Afrotropical
Indo-Malay

Nearctic

Neotropical
Australasian/Oceanic

Palearctic

Warm mixed forest
Temperate deciduous forest
Savanna

Shrub

Tropical woodland
Temperate mixed forest
Tropical forest

Wooded tundra
Grassland / steppe
Cool coniferous forest
Desert

Tundra

Boreal forest

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Africa is the region that will lose the most vascular plant species,
mainly as a result of rapid population growth and strong
increases in per capita food production in the region, much of
which continues to rely on expansion of cultivated area. The
Indo-Malayan region loses the second-most biodiversity. Past and
projected future trends in habitat change indicate that the
biomes that have already suffered the greatest change (Mediterra-
nean forests and temperate grasslands) show the highest recover-
ies over the next 50 years, while the biomes that suffered
intermediate changes in the past have the highest rates of change
in the near future. (See Figure 4.4.) Finally, biomes at higher lati-
tudes that had not been converted to agriculture in the past will
continue to be relatively unchanged.

62 EcosysTEMs AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

by realm

by terrestrial biome

using the IMAGE Land-cover biomes definition

tion, economic growth, and changing
consumption patterns. By 2050, global
population increases (medium to high
certainty) to 8.1—9.6 billion, depending
on the scenario. At the same time, per
capita GDP expands by a factor of 1.9—

4.4 depending on the scenario (low to

- 30 -35%

medium certainty). Demand is damp-
ened by increasing efficiency in the use
of resources. The expansion of agricul-
tural land occurs mainly in developing
countries and arid regions, whereas in
industrial countries, agricultural area
declines. (See Figure 4.5.) The reverse

pattern occurs in terms of forest cover,

- 30 -35%

with some forest being regained in
industrial countries but with 30% of
the forest in the developing world
being lost from 1970 to 2050, resulting
in a global net loss of forest. The two
scenarios with a proactive approach to
the environment (TZechnoGarden and
Adapting Mosaic) are the most land-
conserving ones because of increasingly

2020 2050

efficient agricultural production, lower
meat consumption, and lower popula-
tion increases. Existing wetlands and
the services they provide (such as water
purification) are at increasing risk in
some areas due to reduced runoff or
intensified land use.

For the three drivers tested across scenarios regarding terres-
trial systems, land use change is projected to be the dominant
driver of biodiversity loss, followed by changes in climate and
nitrogen deposition. But there are differences between biomes
(medium certainty) (S10.2). For example, climate change will be
the dominant driver of biodiversity change in tundra, boreal for-
est, cool conifer forest, savanna, and deserts. Nitrogen deposition
will be an important driver in warm mixed forests and temperate
deciduous forest. These two ecosystems are sensitive to nitrogen
deposition and include densely populated areas. Considering
these three drivers together, the total loss of vascular plant diver-
sity from 1970 to 2050 ranges from 13% to 19%, depending on
the scenario (/ow certainty). The impact of other important driv-
ers, such as overexploitation and invasive species, could not be
assessed as fully, suggesting that terrestrial biodiversity loss may
be larger than the above projection.

Vast changes are expected in world freshwater resources and
hence in their provisioning of ecosystem services (S9.4.5). (See
Figure 4.6.) Under the two scenarios with a reactive approach to
the environment (Order from Strength and Global Orchestration),
massive increases in water withdrawals in developing countries
are projected to lead to an increase in untreated wastewater dis-
charges, causing a deterioration of freshwater quality. Climate
change leads to both increasing and declining river runoff,
depending on the region. The combination of huge increases in
water withdrawals, decreasing water quality, and decreasing run-
off in some areas leads to an intensification of water stress over
wide areas. In sum, a deterioration of the services provided by
freshwater resources (such as aquatic habitat, fish production,
and water supply for households, industry and agriculture) is
expected under the two scenarios with a reactive approach to the

environment, with a less severe decline under the other two sce-
narios (medium certainty).

Fish populations are projected to be lost from some river
basins under all scenarios due to the combined effects of cli-
mate change and water withdrawals. Under all scenarios, water

EQUATOR

GH Tropical forest GB Cool coniferous forest
©) Tropical woodland —) Boreal forest
Temperate mixed forest ©) Wooded tundra

M3) Temperate deciduous forest — | Tundra

availability decreases in 30% of the modeled river basins from
the combined effects of climate change and water withdrawal, as
projected by the WaterGAP model ($10.3). Based on established
but incomplete scientific understanding of fish species-discharge
relationships, the decreased water discharge will result in eventual
losses of up to 65% (by 2100) of fish species from these basins
(low certainty).

Climate change rather than water withdrawal is the major
driver for the species losses from most basins, with projected
losses from climate change alone of up to 65% by 2100. Rivers
that are projected to lose the most fish species are concentrated in
poor tropical and sub-tropical countries, where the needs for
human adaptation are most likely to exceed governmental and
societal capacity to cope ($10.3). Many rivers and lakes also
experience increased temperatures, eutrophication, acidification,
and increased invasions by nonindigenous species, leading to loss
of native biodiversity. No algorithms exist for estimating the
numbers of species lost due to these drivers, but recent experi-
ence suggests that they cause losses greater than those caused by
climate change and water withdrawal.

EQUATOR

—_! Grassland / steppe ——! Agriculture and extensive grassland

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 63

1. CONVERSION OF TERRESTRIAL BIOMEs (Adapted from C4, $10)

It is not possible to estimate accurately the extent of different biomes prior to
significant human impact, but it is possible to determine the “potential” area of biomes
based on soil and climatic conditions. This Figure shows how much of that potential
area is estimated to have been converted by 1950 (medium certainty), how much
was converted between 1950 and 1990 (medium certainty), and how much would

be converted under the four MA scenarios (low certainty) between 1990 and 2050.
Mangroves are not included here because the area was too small to be accurately

preferences for fish (S9.4.2). Increasing demand
raises the pressure on marine fisheries, most of
which are already above or near their maximum
sustainable yield and could cause a long-term
collapse in their productivity. The production of
fish via aquaculture adds to the risk of collapse
of marine fisheries, as aquaculture continues to
depend on marine fish as a feed source.
However, the diversity of marine biomass is

assessed. Most of the conversion of these biomes is to cultivated systems.

Fraction of potential area converted
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
t 1 fh 1

a ———

MEDITERRANEAN FORESTS,
WOODLANDS, AND SCRUB

TEMPERATE FOREST
STEPPE AND WOODLAND

TEMPERATE BROADLEAF
AND MIXED FORESTS

TROPICAL AND
SUB-TROPICAL DRY
BROADLEAF FORESTS

FLOODED GRASSLANDS
AND SAVANNAS

TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL
GRASSLANDS, SAVANNAS,
AND SHRUBLANDS

TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL
CONIFEROUS FORESTS

DESERTS

MONTANE GRASSLANDS.
AND SHRUBLANDS

TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL
MOIST BROADLEAF FORESTS

TEMPERATE
CONIFEROUS FORESTS

BOREAL
FORESTS

TUNDRA

Conversion of original biomes

oa Loss by Loss between
1950

Projected loss
1950 and 1990 s_| by 20502

* According to the four MA scenarios. For 2050 projections, the average value of the projections

under the four scenarios is plotted and the error bars (black lines) represent the range
of values from the different scenarios.

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Demand for fish as food expands under all scenarios, and the
result will be an increasing risk of a major long-lasting collapse
of regional marine fisheries (low to medium certainty). The
demand for fish from both freshwater and marine sources, as
well as from aquaculture, increases across all scenarios because
of increasing human population, income growth, and growing

64 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

70 80 90 100%
i

sensitive to changes in regional policy. Scenarios
with policies that focus on maintaining or
increasing the value of fisheries result in declin-
ing biomass diversity (that is, a few functional
groups become much more abundant than
others), while scenarios with policies that focus
on maintaining the ecosystem responded with
increasing biomass diversity (the biomass
becomes more evenly distributed among the
different functional groups). Rebuilding selected
stocks does not necessarily increase biomass

diversity as effectively as an ecosystem-focused
policy (S10.4).

Ecological Degradation and

Human Well-being

Biodiversity loss will lead to a deterioration of
ecosystem services, increasing the likelihood of
ecological surprises—with negative impacts on
human well-being. Examples of ecological sur-
prises include runaway climate change, desertifi-
cation, fisheries collapse, floods, landslides,
wildfires, eutrophication, and disease (S11.1.2,
$11.7). Security and social relations are vulnera-
ble to reductions in ecosystem services. Short-
ages of provisioning services, such as food and
water, are obvious and potent causes for conflict,
thus harming social relations. But social relations
can also be harmed by reduced ecosystem cul-
tural services, such as the loss of iconic species or
changes to highly valued landscapes. Likelihood
of surprises, society preparedness, and ecosystem
resilience interact to determine the vulnerability
of human well-being to ecological and other
forms of surprise in any given scenario. The vul-
nerability of human well-being to adverse eco-
logical, social, and other forms of surprise varies
among the scenarios (S11.7), but it is greatest in Order from
Strength, with a focus on security through boundaries and where
the society is not proactive to the environment.

Scenarios that limit deforestation show relatively better
preservation of regulating services. Tropical deforestation
could be reduced by a combination of reduced tropical hard-
wood consumption in the North, technological developments
leading to substitution, and slower population growth in the
South (TechnoGarden) or through greater protection of local

Pasture and cropland in million square kilometers
45

Developing
regions
30:

Industrial
regions

MA Scenarios
=—— Order from Strength
=—— Adapting Mosaic
—— TechnoGarden
=—— Global Orchestration

1970

1980

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

ecosystems (Adapting Mosaic). In contrast, in the scenarios
that are not proactive on the environment, a combination of
market forces, undervaluation, and feedbacks lead to substan-
tial deforestation not only in the tropics but also in large
swaths of Siberia (Order from Strength and Global Orchestra-
tion). Deforestation increasingly interacts with climate change
in all scenarios, causing not only more flooding during storms
but also more fires during droughts, greatly increasing the risk
of runaway climate change (S11).

Terrestrial ecosystems currently absorb CO: at a rate of about
1—2 gigatons of carbon per year (with medium certainty) and
thereby contribute to the regulation of climate, but the future
of this service is uncertain (S9.5). Deforestation is expected to
reduce the carbon sink most strongly in a globalized world with
a focus on security through boundaries (Order from Strength)
(medium certainty). Carbon release or uptake by ecosystems
affects the CO2and CHs content of the atmosphere at the global

9. FOREST AND CROPLAND/PasTuRE IN INDUSTRIAL AND DEVELOPING REGIONS UNDER THE MA ScENARIOS (S9 E

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Forest area in million square kilometers
45

40
35

Industrial
regions

20
Developing
regions

)
1970

1980

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

scale and thereby global climate. Currently, the biosphere is a net
sink of carbon, absorbing approximately 20% of fossil fuel emis-

sions. It is very likely that the future of this service will be greatly
affected by expected land use change. In addition, a higher atmo-
spheric CO: concentration is expected to enhance net productiv-
ity, but this does not necessarily lead to an increase in the carbon
sink. The limited understanding of soil respiration processes, and
their response to changed agricultural practices, generates uncer-

tainty about the future of this sink.

The MA scenarios project an increase in global temperature
between 2000 and 2050 of 1.0—1.5° Celsius, and between 2000
and 2100 of 2.0—3.5° Celsius, depending on the scenario (/ow
to medium certainty) (S9.3). There is an increase in global average
precipitation (medium certainty). Furthermore, according to the
climate scenarios of the MA, there is an increase in precipitation

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 65

ER AVAILABILITY IN GLOBAL Orc

O BY 2100 (

EQUATOR

Change in water availability
in percentage

eal] -50% and under
) -25 to -50%
___| -5 to -25%
__| -5 to +5%

__| +5 to +25%
W)) +25 to +50% we:
ea] +50% and above as : 1

EQUATOR

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

over most of the land area on Earth (low to medium certainty).
However, some arid regions (such as North Africa and the Mid-
dle East) could become even more arid (/ow certainty). Climate
change will directly alter ecosystem services, for example, by
causing changes in the productivity and growing zones of culti-
vated and noncultivated vegetation. It will also indirectly affect
ecosystem services in many ways, such as by causing sea level to
rise, which threatens mangroves and other vegetation that now
protect shorelines.

Acknowledging the uncertainty in climate sensitivity in accor-
dance with the IPCC would lead to a wider range of temperature
increase than 2.0—3.5° Celsius. Nevertheless, both the upper and
lower end of this wider range would be shifted downward some-
what compared with the range for the scenarios in the IPCC
Special Report on Emission Scenarios (1.5—5.5° Celsius). This is
caused by the fact that the ZechnoGarden scenario includes cli-
mate policies (while the IPCC scenarios did not cover climate
policies) and the highest scenarios (Global Orchestration and
Order from Strength) show lower emissions than the highest

IPCC scenario (S9.3.4).

66 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

The scenarios indicate (medium certainty) certain “hot
spot regions” of particularly rapid changes in ecosystem ser-
vices, including sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and
Northern Africa, and South Asia (S9.8). To meet its needs for
development, sub-Saharan Africa is likely to rapidly expand its
withdrawal of water, and this will require an unprecedented
investment in new water infrastructure. Under some scenarios
(medium certainty), this rapid increase in withdrawals will
cause a similarly rapid increase in untreated return flows to the
freshwater systems, which could endanger public health and
aquatic ecosystems. This region could experience not only
accelerating intensification of agriculture but also further
expansion of agricultural land onto natural land. Further
intensification could lead to a higher level of contamination
of surface and groundwaters.

Expansion of agriculture will come at the expense of the
disappearance of a large fraction of sub-Saharan Africa's natural
forest and grasslands (medium certainty) as well as the ecosystem
services they provide. Rising incomes in the Middle East and
Northern African countries lead to greater demand for meat,
which could lead to a still higher level of dependency on food
imports (/ow to medium certainty). In South Asia, deforestation
continues, despite increasingly intensive industrial-type

agriculture. Here, rapidly increasing water
withdrawals and return flows further intensify
water stress.

While the GDP per person improves on aver-
age in all scenarios, this can mask increased
inequity and declines in some ecosystem ser-
vices (S9.2). Food security improves in the South
in all scenarios except in Order from Strength, a
world with a focus on security through boundar-
ies and reactive to the environment. (See Figure
4.7.) Food security remains out of reach for many
people, however, and child malnutrition cannot
be eradicated even by 2050, with the number of
malnourished children still at 151 million in
Order from Strength. In a regionalized and envi-
ronmentally proactive world, there is an improve-
ment of provisioning services in the South
through investment in social, natural, and, to a
lesser extent, human capital at local and regional
levels (Adapting Mosaic). Global health improves
in a globalized world that places an emphasis on
economic development (Global Orchestration)
but worsens in a regionalized world with a focus
on security, with new diseases affecting poor
populations and with anxiety, depression, obesity
and diabetes affecting richer populations (Order
from Strength).

New health technologies and better nutrition
could help unleash major social and economic
improvements, especially among poor tropical
populations, where it is increasingly well recog-
nized that development is being undermined by
numerous infectious diseases, widespread under-
nutrition, and high birth rates. Good health
depends crucially on institutions. The greatest
improvements in social relations occur in a
regionalized world with a focus on the environ-
ment, as civil society movements strengthen
(Adapting Mosaic). Curiously, security is poorest
in a world with focus on security through bound-
aries (Order from Strength). This scenario also sees
freedom of choice and action reduced both in the
North and the South, while other scenarios see an
improvement, particularly in the South (S11).

Implications and Opportunities

for Trend Reversion

The MA scenarios demonstrate the fundamen-
tal interdependence between energy, climate
change, biodiversity, wetlands, desertification,
food, health, trade, and economy, since ecologi-
cal change affects the scenario outcomes. This
interdependence between environmental and
development goals stresses the importance of
partnerships and the potential for synergies

e 4.7. CHANGES IN HumMaAN WELL-BEING AND SOCIOECOLOGICAL

INDICATORS BY 2050 UNDER THE MA Scenarios (S11)

Each arrow in the star diagrams represents one component of human well-being. The

area marked by the lines between the arrows represents well-being as a whole. The 0 line

represents the status of each of these components today. If the thick line moves more

toward the center of the pentagon, this component deteriorates in relative terms between

today and 2050; if it moves more toward the outer edges of the pentagon, it improves.

Global Orchestration

Order from Strength

Rich countries

Material Material
well-being well-being
Aimy. >

Social gi

Social ce
relations ~~ Health relations Health
j ,
\ ; ,
rl f \
\ eee. Pine
Freedom Security Freedom Security

and choice and choice

Poor countries

Material Material
well-being well-being
Social af be Social
relations 7 Health relations Health
Freedom Security Freedom Security
and choice and choice

TechnoGarden

Adapting Mosaic

Rich countries :
Material

well-being

Material
well-being

fim ,

Social
Health relations Health
fas :
Freedom Security Freedom Security

and choice and choice

Poor countries ;
Material

well-being

Material
well-being

Health

Security Freedom
and choice

Freedom Security

and choice

Year Present Year
2050 situation 2050
Decline Improvement
—

Source; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

= =

EcosysTEMs AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 67

among multilateral environ-
mental agreements (S14). As
the basis for international
cooperation, all global environ-
mental agreements operate
under profoundly different cir-
cumstances in the four scenar-
ios, and their current
instruments—exchange of sci-
entific information and knowl-
edge, technology transfer,
benefit sharing, financial sup-
port—might need to be revised
and complemented by new
ones according to changing

ww
=<
=
w
=
ue
>
=
a

sociopolitical conditions. The
interdependence between
socioeconomic development and ecosystems also requires
national governments and intergovernmental organizations to
influence and moderate the actions of the private

sector, communities, and NGOs. The responsibility of national
governments to establish good governance at the national and
sub-national levels is complemented by their obligation to shape
the international context by negotiating, endorsing, and imple-
menting international environmental agreements.

Trade-offs between ecosystem services continue and may
intensify. The gains in provisioning services such as food supply
and water use will come partly at the expense of other ecosystem
services (S12). Major decisions in the next 50-100 years will
have to address trade-offs between agricultural production and
water quality, land use and biodiversity, water use and aquatic
biodiversity, current water use for irrigation and future agricul-
tural production, and in fact all current and future use of nonre-
newable resources (S12). Providing food to an increasing
population will lead (with low to medium certainty) to the expan-
sion of agricultural land, and this will lead to the loss of natural
forest and grassland (S9.3) as well as of other services (such as
genetic resources, climate regulation, and runoff regulation).
While water use will increase in developing countries (with high
certainty), this is likely to be accompanied by a rapid and perhaps
extreme deterioration of water quality, with losses of the services
provided by clean fresh waters (genetic resources, recreation, and
fish production).

For a given level of socioeconomic development, policies that
conserve more biodiversity will also promote higher aggregated
human well-being through the preservation of regulating, cul-
tural, and supporting services. Regulating and supporting ser-
vices are essential for the steady delivery of provisioning services
to humans and to sustain life on Earth, while cultural services are
important for many people. Although trade-offs are common,

68 EcosystTEMS AND HUMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

various synergistic interactions can allow for the simultaneous
enhancement of more than one ecosystem service (S12.4.4).
Increasing the supply of some ecosystem services can enhance the
supply of others (forest restoration, for instance, may lead to
improvements in carbon sequestration, runoff regulation, polli-
nation, and wildlife), although there are also trade-offs (in this
case with reduced capacity to provide food, for example). Suc-
cessful management of synergisms is a key component of any
strategy aimed at increasing the supply of ecosystem services for
human well-being.

The prospect of large unexpected shifts in ecosystem services
can be addressed by adopting policies that hedge (by diversify-
ing the services used in a particular region, for example), choos-
ing reversible actions, monitoring to detect impending changes
in ecosystems, and adjusting flexibly as new knowledge
becomes available (S.SDM, S5, S14). More attention to
indicators and monitoring for large changes in ecosystem services
would increase society’s capacity to avert large disturbances of
ecosystem services or to adapt to them more rapidly if they
occur. Without monitoring and policies that anticipate the possi-
bility of large ecosystem changes, society will face increased risk
of large impacts from unexpected disruptions of ecosystem ser-
vices. In the scenarios, the greatest risks of large, unfavorable eco-
logical changes arise in dryland agriculture, marine fisheries,
degradation in the quality of fresh waters and coastal marine
waters, emergence of disease, and regional climate change. These
are also some of the ecosystem attributes most poorly monitored
at present.

5. What response options can conserve biodiversity and promote

human well-being?

@ Biodiversity loss is driven by local, regional, and global
factors, so responses are also needed at all scales.

@ Responses need to acknowledge multiple stakeholders
with different needs.

@ Given certain conditions, many effective responses are
available to address the issues identified.

@ Responses designed to address biodiversity loss will not
be sustainable or sufficient unless relevant direct and indirect
drivers of change are addressed.

@ Further progress in reducing biodiversity loss will come
through greater coherence and synergies among sectoral
responses and through more systematic consideration of trade-
offs among ecosystem services or between biodiversity conser-
vation and other needs of society.

Some drivers of biodiversity loss are localized, such as overex-
ploitation. Others are global, such as climate change, while
many operate at a variety of scales, such as the local impacts of
invasive species through global trade. Most of the responses
assessed here were designed to address the direct drivers of biodi-
versity loss. However, these drivers are better seen as symptoms
of the indirect drivers, such as unsustainable patterns of con-
sumption, demographic change, and globalization.

At the local and regional scale, responses to the drivers may
promote both local biodiversity and human well-being by acting
on the synergies between maintenance of local biodiversity and
provision of key ecosystem services. Responses promoting local
management for global biodiversity values depend on local “cap-
ture” of the global values in a way that provides both ongoing
incentives for management and support for local well-being (R5).

At the global scale, effective responses set priorities for conser-
vation and development efforts in different regions and create
shared goals or programs, such as the biodiversity-related conven-
tions and the Millennium Development Goals. Effective trade-
offs and synergies will be promoted when different strategies or
instruments are used in an integrated, coordinated way (R5).

The MA assessment of biodiversity responses places human
well-being as the central focus for assessment, recognizing that
people make decisions concerning ecosystems based on a range
of values related to well-being, including the use and non-use
values of biodiversity and ecosystems. The assessment therefore
has viewed biodiversity responses as addressing values at different
scales, with strong links to ecosystem service values and well-being
arising at each of these scales. The well-being of local people dom-
inates the assessment of many responses, including those relating

to protected areas, governance, wild species management, and var-
ious responses related to local capture of benefits.

Focusing exclusively on values at only one level often hinders
responses that could promote values at all levels or reconcile
conflicts between the levels. Effective responses function across
scales, addressing global values of biodiversity while identifying
opportunity costs or synergies with local values. Local consider-
ation of global biodiversity recognizes the value of what is unique
at a place (or what is not yet protected elsewhere). The values of
ecosystem services, on the other hand, do not always depend on
these unique elements. Effective biodiversity responses recognize
both kinds of values.

These considerations guide the assessment summarized in this
section of a range of response strategies that to varying degrees
integrate global and local values and that seek effective trade-offs
and synergies for biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human
well-being.

Difficulties in measuring biodiversity have complicated
assessments of the impact of response strategies. Developing
better indicators of biodiversity would enhance integration
among strategies and instruments. For example, existing mea-
sures often focus on local biodiversity and do not estimate the
marginal gains in regional or global biodiversity values. Similarly,
biodiversity gains from organic farming are typically expressed
only as localized species richness, with no consideration of the
degree of contribution to regional or global biodiversity or the
trade-offs with high-productivity industrial agriculture.

How Effective Are Protected Areas

for Biodiversity Conservation and

Improved Human Well-being?

Protected areas are an extremely important part of programs to
conserve biodiversity and ecosystems, especially for sensitive
habitats (R5). Recent assessments have shown that at the global
and regional scales, the existence of current PAs, while essential,
is not sufficient for conservation of the full range of biodiversity.
Protected areas need to be better located, designed, and managed
to deal with problems like lack of representativeness, impacts of
human settlement within protected areas, illegal harvesting of
plants and animals, unsustainable tourism, impacts of invasive
alien species, and vulnerability to global change. Marine and
freshwater ecosystems are even less well protected than terrestrial
systems, leading to increasing efforts to expand PAs in these
biomes. Efforts to expand marine protected areas are also spurred
by strong evidence of positive synergies between conservation
within PAs and sustainable use immediately outside their bound-
aries (C18). However, marine protected area management poses
special challenges, as enforcement is difficult and much of the
world’s oceans lie outside national jurisdictions.

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 69

OC ae

Based on a survey of management effectiveness of a sample of
nearly 200 protected areas in 34 countries, only 12% were found
to have implemented an approved management plan. The assess-
ment concluded that PA design, legal establishment, boundary
demarcation, resource inventory, and objective setting were rela-
tively well addressed. But management planning, monitoring
and evaluation, and budgets for security and law enforcement
were generally weak among the surveyed areas. Moreover, the
“paper park” problem remains, whereby geographic areas may be
labeled as some category of protected area but not achieve the
promised form of management (R5).

Protected areas may contribute to poverty where rural people
are excluded from resources that have traditionally supported
their well-being. However, PAs can contribute to improved live-
lihoods when they are managed to benefit local people (R5).
Relations with local people should be addressed more effectively
through participatory consultation and planning. One possible
strategy is to promote the broader use of IUCN protected areas
management categories. Success depends on a collaborative man-
agement approach between government and stakeholders, an
adaptive approach that tests options in the field, comprehensive
monitoring that provides information on management success or
failure, and empowerment of local communities through an
open and transparent system that clarifies access and ownership
of resources.

Success of protected areas as a response to biodiversity loss
requires better site selection and incorporation of regional
trade-offs to avoid some ecosystems from being poorly repre-
sented while others are overrepresented. Success of PAs depends
on adequate legislation and management, sufficient resources,
better integration with the wider region surrounding protected
areas, and expanded stakeholder engagement (R5). Moreover,
representation and management targets and performance indica-
tors work best when they go beyond measuring the total area
apparently protected. Indicators of percent-area coverage of PAs,
as associated with the Millennium Development Goals and other
targets, for example, only provide a broad indication of the actual
extent of protection afforded by PA systems, but regional and
national-level planning requires targets that take into account
trade-offs and synergies with other ecosystem services.

Protected area design and management will need to take into
account the impacts of climate change. The impacts of climate
change will increase the risk of extinctions of certain species and
change the nature of ecosystems. Shifts in species distribution as
a result of climate change are well documented (C4, C19, C25).
Today's species conservation plans may incorporate adaptation
and mitigation aspects for this threat, drawing on existing tools
to help assess species’ vulnerability to climate change. Corridors
and other habitat design aspects to give flexibility to protected
areas are effective precautionary strategies. Improved manage-
ment of habitat corridors and production ecosystems between

protected areas will help biodiversity adapt to changing condi-
tions (R5).

70 EcosysTEMS AND Human WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

How Effective is Local Capture

of Biodiversity Benefits?

The impact of market instruments in encouraging and achiev-
ing conservation of biodiversity is unclear (R5). Although trad-
able development rights offer the potential to achieve a
conservation objective at a low cost by offering flexibility in
achieving the objectives, they have been the subject of some criti-
cisms—notably for being complex and involving high transac-
tion costs and the establishment of new supporting institutions.
For example, a situation could arise in which the most ecologi-
cally sensitive land but also the least costly to develop would not
be protected. To date, the TDR has not been designed to target
specific habitat types and properties.

Transferring rights to own and manage ecosystem services to
private individuals gives them a stake in conserving those ser-
vices, but these measures can backfire without adequate levels
of institutional support. For example, in South Africa, changes
in wildlife protection legislation allowed a shift in landownership
and a conversion from cattle and sheep farming to profitable
game farming, enabling conservation of indigenous wildlife. On
the other hand, the CAMPFIRE program in Zimbabwe, based
on sustainable community-managed use of wildlife, has now
become an example of how success can turn into failure, with the
state repossessing the areas given to individuals and breaking the
levels of trust and transparency—a form of instrumental free-
dom—that are critically needed for these economic responses to
work efficiently and equitably (R17).

Payments to local landowners for ecosystem services show
promise of improving the allocation of ecosystem services and
are applicable to biodiversity conservation. However, compen-
sating mechanisms addressing the distributive and equitable
aspects of these economic instruments may need to be designed
in support of such efforts. By 2001, more than 280,000 hectares
of forests had been incorporated in Costa Rica within reserves, at
a cost of about $30 million per year, with typical annual pay-
ments ranging from $35 to $45 per hectare for forest conserva-
tion (R5 Box 5.3). However, the existence of direct payment
initiatives does not guarantee success in achieving conservation
and development objectives or benefits for human well-being.
Empirical analyses about the distributive impacts across different
social groups are rare.

Direct payments are often more effective than indirect incen-
tives. For example, integrated conservation-development proj-
ects—an indirect incentive—designed to allow local populations
to improve their well-being by capturing international willing-
ness to pay for biodiversity conservation have in practice rarely
been integrated into ongoing incentives for conservation. Over-
all, long-term success for these response strategies depends on
meeting the economic and social needs of communities whose
well-being already depends to varying degrees on biodiversity
products and the ecosystem services biodiversity supports (R5).

However, direct payments have been criticized for requiring
ongoing financial commitments to maintain the link between
investment and conservation objectives. Furthermore they have
led in some instances to inter- and intra-community conflict.

Yet many success stories show the effectiveness of direct pay-
ments and the transfer of property rights in providing incentives
for local communities to conserve biodiversity. Effectiveness of
payments in conserving regional biodiversity may be enhanced
by new approaches that target payments based on estimated mar-
ginal gains (“complementarity” values) (R5 Box 5.3).

Significant improvements can be made to mitigate biodiver-
sity loss and ecosystem changes by removing or redirecting eco-
nomic subsidies that cause more harm than good. Agricultural
subsidies in industrial countries reduce world prices for many
commodities that developing countries produce. Lower prices
provide the wrong incentives, encouraging these countries to
adopt unsustainable agricultural activities that destroy ecosystems
as well as push many poor farmers into poverty. Therefore the
removal or redirection of agricultural subsidies is highly likely by
itself to produce major improvements in ecosystem services and
to check the rate of biodiversity loss (R5).

The promotion of “win-win” outcomes has been politically
correct at best and naive at worst. Economic incentives that
encourage the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity
show considerable promise. However, trade-offs between biodi-
versity, economic gains, and social needs have to be more realisti-
cally acknowledged. The benefits of biodiversity conservation are
often widespread, even global in the case of existence values or
carbon sequestration, while the costs of restricting access to bio-
diversity often are concentrated on groups living near biodiver-

sity-rich areas (R5).

Why is the Management of Individual

Species a Common Response Strategy for
Harvestable and Invasive Species?

Direct management of invasive species will become an even
more important biodiversity conservation response, typically
calling for an ecosystem-level response if the invasive species
has become established. Control or eradication of an invasive
species once it is established is often extremely difficult and
costly, while prevention and early intervention have been shown
to be more successful and cost-effective. Common factors in suc-
cessful eradication cases include particular biological features of
the target species (for example, poor dispersal ability), early
detection/response, sufficient economic resources devoted for a
sufficient duration, and widespread support from the relevant
agencies and the public. Successful prevention requires increased
efforts in the control and regulation of the transportation of
invasive species due to international trade (R5).

Chemical control of invasive plant species, sometimes com-
bined with mechanical removal like cutting or pruning, has
been useful for controlling at least some invasive plants, but has
not proved particularly successful in eradication. In addition to
its low efficiency, chemical control can be expensive. Biological
control of invasive species has also been attempted, but results
are mixed (R5). For example, the introduction of a non-native
predatory snail to control the giant African snail in Hawaii led to

extinction of many native snails. Some 160 species of biological
agents, mainly insects and fungi, are registered for controlling
invasive species in North America, and many of them appear
highly effective. However, at least some of the biological agents
used are themselves potential invaders. Environmental screening
and risk assessment can minimize the likelihood of negative
impacts on non-target native species.

Social and economic aspects of the control of invasive species
have received less attention, perhaps because of difficulties in
estimating these trade-offs. The Global Invasive Species Pro-
gram is an international response to address the problem. The
CBD has adopted Guiding Principles on Invasive Alien Species
(Decision VI/23) as a basic policy response, but it is too early to
assess the effectiveness of implementation (R5).

Sustainable use of natural resources is an integral part of any
sustainable development program, yet its contribution to con-
servation remains a highly controversial subject within the con-
servation community. Conserving species when the management
objective is ensuring resource availability to support human live-
lihoods is frequently unsuccessful. This is because optimal man-
agement for natural resource extraction frequently has negative
impacts on species targeted for conservation. Therefore, care in
establishing positive incentives for conservation and sustainable
use is critical to successful biodiversity conservation (R5).

Where the goal is species conservation, and where a specific
population has a distinct identity and can be managed directly,
species management approaches can be effective. However,
managing for a single species is rarely effective when the goal is
ecosystem functioning, which is tied to the entire suite of species
present in the area. Where human livelihoods depend on single
species resources, species management can be effective (for exam-
ple, some fisheries and game species), but where people depend
ona range of different wild resources, as is frequently the case,
multiple species management is the appropriate approach (R5).

How Effective Are Strategies for Integrating
Biodiversity Issues in Production Sectors?

At the national level, integrating biodiversity issues into agri-
culture, fishery, and forestry management encourages sustain-
able harvesting and minimizes negative impacts on biodiversity.
Biodiversity will only be conserved and sustainably used when it
becomes a mainstream concern of production sectors. Agricul-
ture is directly dependent on biodiversity, but agricultural prac-
tices in recent decades have focused on maximizing yields.
Research and development have focused on few relatively pro-
ductive species, thus ignoring the potential importance of biodi-
versity. Effective response strategies include sustainable
intensification, which minimizes the need for expanding total
area for production, so allowing more area for biodiversity

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 71

conservation. Practices such as integrated pest management,
some forms of organic farming, and protection of field margins,
riparian zones, and other noncultivated habitats within farms
can promote synergistic relationships between agriculture,
domestic biodiversity, and wild biodiversity. However, assess-
ments of biodiversity contributions from such management
reveal little data about contributions to regional biodiversity
conservation (C26, R5).

A review of 36 initiatives to conserve wild biodiversity while
enhancing agricultural production demonstrated benefits to
landscape and ecosystem diversity, while impacts on species
diversity were very situation-specific. Assessing the impact of
these approaches suffers from a lack of consistent, comprehen-
sively documented research on the systems, particularly regarding
interactions between agricultural production and ecosystem
health (R5).

Tropical deforestation at a local level can be controlled most
effectively when the livelihood needs of local inhabitants are
addressed within the context of sustainable forestry. The early
proponents of forest certification hoped it would be an effective
response to tropical deforestation, but most certified forests are
in the North, managed by large companies and exporting to
Northern retailers (C9, C21). The proliferation of certification
programs to meet the needs of different stakeholders has meant
that no single program has emerged as the only credible or domi-
nant approach internationally (R8.3.9). Forest management poli-
cies should center on existing land and water ownership at the
community level. Relevant legal tools include redesigning owner-
ship to small-scale private control of forests, public-private part-
nerships, direct management of forests by indigenous people, and
company-community partnerships. New land tenure systems
must be context-relevant and accompanied by enforcement if
they are to be effective. They need to include elements of educa-
tion, training, health, and safety to function effectively (R5, R8).

What Can the Private Sector

Contribute to Biodiversity Objectives?

The private sector can make significant contributions to biodi-
versity conservation. Some parts of the private sector are show-
ing greater willingness to contribute to biodiversity conservation
and sustainable use due to the influence of shareholders, custom-
ers, and government regulation. Showing greater corporate social
responsibility, many companies are now preparing their own
biodiversity action plans, managing their own landholdings in
ways that are more compatible with biodiversity conservation,
supporting certification schemes that promote more sustainable

72 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

use, working with multiple stakeholders, and accepting their
responsibility for addressing biodiversity issues in their operations.
Influence of shareholders or customers is limited in cases where
the company is not publicly listed or is government-owned.

Further developments are likely to focus on two main areas.
First, in addition to assessing the impact of companies on biodi-
versity, important though this is, increasing emphasis will be
given to ecosystem services and how companies rely on them.
This will require development of mechanisms for companies to
understand their risk exposure and to manage those risks. Sec-
ond, greater collaboration is likely to take place between NGOs
and business in order to more fully explore ways to reduce harm-
ful trade-offs and identify positive synergies that could lead to
more effective sustainable management practices (R5).

What Institutions, Forms of Governance,

and Multilateral Processes Can Promote
Effective Conservation of Biodiversity?

Governance approaches to support biodiversity conservation
and sustainable use are required at all levels, with supportive
laws and policies developed by central governments providing
the security of tenure and authority essential for sustainable
management at lower levels. The principle that biodiversity
should be managed at the lowest appropriate level has led to
decentralization in many parts of the world, with variable results.
The key to success is strong institutions at all levels, with security
of tenure and authority at the lower levels essential to providing
incentives for sustainable management (R5).

At the same time that management of some ecosystem services
is being devolved to lower levels, management approaches are
also evolving to deal with large-scale processes with many stake-
holders. Problems such as regional water scarcity and conserva-
tion of large ecosystems require large-scale management
structures. For example, most of the major rivers in Southern
Africa flow across international borders, so international water
co-management organizations are being designed to share the
management of riparian resources and ensure water security
for all members. However, political instability in one state may
negatively affect others, and power among stakeholders is likely
to be uneven.

Neither centralization nor decentralization of authority
always results in better management. For example, the power of
Catchment Management Agencies in South Africa is constrained
to their catchment, but impacts may be felt from outside or
upstream. The best strategy may be one with multi-subsidiar-
ity—that is, functions that subordinate organizations perform
effectively belong more properly to them (because they have the
best information) than to a dominant central organization, and
the central organization functions as a center of support, coordi-
nation, and communication (R5).

Legal systems in countries are multilayered
and in many countries, local practices or infor-
mal institutions may be much stronger than
the law on paper. Important customs relate to
the local norms and traditions of managing
property rights and the ecosystems around
them. Since these are embedded in the local
societies, changing these customs and customary
rights through external incentive and disincen-
tive schemes is very difficult unless the incen-
tives are very carefully designed. Local
knowledge, integrated with other scientific
knowledge, becomes absolutely critical for
addressing ways of managing local ecosystems.

More effort is needed in integrating biodi-
versity conservation and sustainable use activi-
ties within larger macroeconomic
decision-making frameworks. New poverty
reduction strategies have been developed in
recent years covering a wide range of policies
and different scales and actors. However, the
integration or mainstreaming of ecosystems and
ecosystem services is largely ignored. The focus of such strategies
is generally on institutional and macroeconomic stability, the
generation of sectoral growth, and the reduction of the number
of people living on less than $1 a day in poor countries. It is
well documented that many of the structural adjustment pro-
grams of the mid- to late 1980s caused deterioration in ecosys-
tem services and a deepening of poverty in many developing
countries (R17).

International cooperation through multilateral environmen-
tal agreements requires increased commitment to implementa-
tion of activities that effectively conserve biodiversity and
promote sustainable use of biological resources. Numerous mul-
tilateral environmental agreements have now been established
that contribute to conserving biodiversity. The Convention on
Biological Diversity is the most comprehensive, but numerous
others are also relevant, including the World Heritage Conven-
tion, the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Spe-
cies of Wild Fauna and Flora, the Ramsar Convention on
Wetlands, the Convention on Migratory Species, the U.N. Con-
vention to Combat Desertification, the U.N. Framework Con-
vention on Climate Change, and numerous regional agreements.
Their impacts at policy and practical levels depend on the will of
the contracting parties (R5).

Effective responses may build on recent attempts (such as
through joint work plans) to create synergies between conven-
tions. The lack of compulsory jurisdiction for dispute resolution
is a major weakness in international environmental law. How-
ever, requirements to report to conventions put pressure on
countries to undertake active measures under the framework of
those treaties. An effective instrument should include incentives,
plus sanctions for violations or noncompliance procedures to
help countries come into compliance. Links between biodiversity

conventions and other international legal institutions that have
significant impacts on biodiversity (such as the World Trade
Organization) remain weak (R5).

The international agreements with the greatest impact on bio-

diversity are not in the environmental field but rather deal with
economic and political issues. These typically do not take into
account their impact on biodiversity. Successful responses will
require that these agreements are closely linked with other agree-
ments and that solutions designed for one regime do not lead to
problems in other regimes. For example, efforts to sequester car-
bon under the Kyoto Protocol should seek to enhance biodiver-
sity, not harm it (for example, by planting multiple species of
native trees rather than monospecific plantatiouis of exotic spe-
cies) (R5).

Although biodiversity loss is a recognized global problem,
most direct actions to halt or reduce loss need to be taken
locally or nationally. Indirect drivers like globalization and inter-
national decisions on trade and economics often have a negative
effect on biodiversity and should be addressed at the interna-
tional level, but the proximate responsibility to detect and act
directly on biodiversity loss is at the local and national level. For
threatened endemic species or ecosystems limited to an area
within a single country or local administrative unit, the relevant
agencies should give high priority to these species or ecosystems,
with appropriate support from global, regional, or national sup-
port systems (R5).

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 73

How Can the Identification, Design, and
Implementation of Responses Be Improved?
Numerous response options exist to improve the benefits from
ecosystem services to human societies without undermining
biodiversity. The political and social changes now occurring in
many parts of the world will have far-reaching consequences for
the way ecosystem services and human well-being are managed
in the future; it is thus imperative to develop an increased under-
standing of the enabling conditions needed for choosing and
implementing responses. (See Box 5.1.)

Responses do not work in a vacuum. A variety of enabling
conditions—a combination of instrumental freedoms and insti-
tutional frameworks—play critical roles in determining the suc-
cess or failure of a response strategy. The success or failure of
many responses is largely influenced by the various institutional
frameworks in place in a country (CF3, R17).

Education and communication programs have both informed
and changed preferences for biodiversity conservation and have
improved implementation of biodiversity responses (R5). Scien-
tific findings and data need to be made available to all of society.
A major obstacle for knowing (and therefore valuing), preserving,
sustainably using, and sharing benefits equitably from the biodi-
versity of a region is the human and institutional capacity to
research a country's biota. The CONABIO initiative in Mexico
and INBio in Cost Rica offer examples of successful national
models for converting basic taxonomic information into knowl-
edge for biodiversity conservation policies, as well as for other
policies relating to ecosystems and biodiversity.

Ecosystem restoration activities are now common in many
countries and include actions to restore almost all types of eco-
systems, including wetlands, forests, grasslands, estuaries, coral
reefs, and mangroves. Restoration will become an increasingly
important response as more ecosystems become degraded and as
demands for their services continue to grow. Ecosystem restora-
tion, however, is generally far more expensive an option than
protecting the original ecosystem, and it is rare that all the biodi-
versity and services of a system can be restored (R5).

Rather than the “win-win” outcomes promoted (or assumed)
by many practitioners of integrated conservation and develop-
ment projects, conflict is more often the norm, and trade-offs
between conservation and development need to be acknowl-
edged. Identifying and then negotiating trade-offs is complex,
involving different policy options, different priorities for conser-
vation and development, and different stakeholders. In the case
of biodiversity conservation, the challenge is in negotiating these
trade-offs, determining levels of acceptable biodiversity loss, and
encouraging stakeholder participation. Where trade-offs must be
made, decision-makers must consider and make explicit the con-
sequences of all options. Better trade-offs from policies that
remove perverse incentives or create markets for biodiversity
protection can achieve a given level of biodiversity protection
(regionally) at lower cost (R5).

74 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

Key Facrors of SUCCESSFUL RESPONSES TO
Bropiversity Loss

= Mobilize knowledge. Ensure that the available knowledge is
presented in ways that can be used by decision-makers.

mw Recognize complexity. Responses must serve multiple objec-
tives and sectors; they must be integrated.

w Acknowledge uncertainty. In choosing responses, understand
the limits to current knowledge, and expect the unexpected.

w Enable natural feedbacks. Avoid creating artificial feedbacks
that are detrimental to system resilience.

= Use an inclusive process. Make information available and
understandable to a wide range of affected stakeholders.

w Enhance adaptive capacity. Resilience is increased if institu-
tional frameworks are put in place that allow and promote the
capacity to learn from past responses and adapt accordingly.
= Establish supporting instrumental freedoms. Responses do
not work in a vacuum, and it is therefore critical to build nec-
essary supporting instrumental freedoms—enabling conditions
like transparency, markets, education—needed in order for the
responses to work efficiently and equitably.

= Establish legal frameworks. A legally binding agreement is
generally likely to have a much stronger effect than a soft law
agreement.

@ Have clear definitions. Agreements with clear definitions and
unambiguous language will be easier to implement.

u Establish principles. Clear principles can help guide the
parties to reach future agreement and guide the implementa-
tion of an agreement.

@ Elaborate obligations and appropriate rights. An agreement
with a clear elaboration of obligations and rights is more likely
to be implemented.

@ Provide financial resources. Availability of financial resources
increases the opportunities for implementation.

= Provide mechanisms for implementation. Where financial
resources are not sufficient, market mechanisms may increase
the potential for implementation.

& Establish implementing and monitoring agencies. The estab-
lishment of subsidiary bodies with authority and resources to
undertake specific activities to enhance the implementation of
the agreements is vital to ensure continuity, preparation, and
follow-up to complex issues.

g Establish good links with scientific bodies. As ecological
issues become more complex, it becomes increasingly impor-
tant to establish good institutional links between the legal pro-
cess and the scientific community.

Integrate traditional and scientific knowledge. \dentify
opportunities for incorporating traditional and local knowledge
in designing responses.

The “ecosystem approaches” as developed by the CBD and
others provide principles for integration across scales and across
different responses. Central to the rationale is that the full range
of measures is applied in a continuum from strictly protected to
human-made ecosystems and that integration can be achieved
through both spatial and temporal separation across the land-
scape, as well as through integration within a site. The MA sub-
global assessments highlight useful synergies and trade-offs where
different responses are integrated into a coherent regional frame-
work (SG9). While some effective approaches will not require
quantification of biodiversity gains, quantifying marginal gains
and losses from different sources can strengthen such integration
and enable one strategy to complement another in a targeted,
strategic way (R17).

Society may receive greater net benefits when opportunity
costs of conservation in a particular location are adjusted to
reflect positive gains from ecosystem services provided and
when the setting of biodiversity targets takes all land and water
use contributions into account (C5 Box 5.2, R5, R17). Debates
about the relative value of formal protected areas versus lands
that are more intensely used by people but that conserve at least
some components of biodiversity are more constructive when
conservation is seen as a continuum of possibilities. Weaknesses
of both ends of the spectrum can be overcome by linking them
in integrated regional strategies (R5).

For example, an area converted to agriculture can lead to loss of
biodiversity but can still contribute to regional biodiversity if it
contributes certain complementary elements of biodiversity to
overall regional biodiversity conservation. Formal protected areas
are criticized for foreclosing other opportunities for society, but an
integrated regional approach can build on the biodiversity protec-
tion gains from the surrounding lands, thereby reducing some of
the pressure for biodiversity protection in the face of other antici-
pated uses over the region. Many contributions to overall biodi-
versity protection are made from production landscapes or other
lands outside of protected areas, and integration allows these con-
tributions to be credited at the regional planning scale and to
increase regional net benefits. However, the ideal of measurable
gains from production lands should not reduce the more general
efforts to mainstream biodiversity into other sectors; even without
formal estimates of complementarity values, mainstreaming poli-
cies can be seen as important aspects of integration. (R5)

What Response Options Exist to Address
Other Drivers of Biodiversity Loss?
Many of the responses designed with the conservation of biodi-
versity or ecosystem service as the primary goal will not be sus-
tainable or sufficient unless indirect and direct drivers of
change are addressed. Numerous responses that address direct
and indirect drivers would be particularly important for biodiver-
sity and ecosystem services:

@ Elimination of subsidies that promote excessive use of specific
ecosystem services. Subsidies paid to the agricultural sectors of
OECD countries between 2001 and 2003 averaged over $324

billion annually, or one third the global value of agricultural
products in 2000 (S7). These subsidies lead to overproduction,
reduce the profitability of agriculture in developing countries,
and promote overuse of fertilizers and pesticides. Similar prob-
lems are created by fishery subsidies, which amounted to approx-
imately $6.2 billion in OECD countries in 2002, or about 20%
of the gross value of production ($7). Although removal of per-
verse subsidies will produce net benefits, it will not be without
costs. Some of the people benefiting from production subsidies
(through either the low prices of products that result from the
subsidies or as direct recipients of subsidies) are poor and would
be harmed by their removal. Compensatory mechanisms may be
needed for these groups. Moreover, removal of agricultural subsi-
dies within the OECD would need to be accompanied by actions
designed to minimize adverse impacts on ecosystem services in
developing countries. But the basic challenge remains that the
current economic system relies fundamentally on economic
growth that disregards its impact on natural resources.

@ Promotion of sustainable intensification of agriculture (C4,
C26). The expansion of agriculture will continue to be one of
the major drivers of biodiversity loss well into the twenty-first
century. In regions where agricultural expansion continues to be
a large threat to biodiversity, the development, assessment, and
diffusion of technologies that could increase the production of
food per unit area sustainably, without harmful trade-offs related
to excessive consumption of water or use of nutrients or pesti-
cides, would significantly lessen pressure on biodiversity. In many
cases, appropriate technologies already exist that could be applied
more widely, but countries lack the financial resources and intu-
itional capabilities to gain and use these technologies. Where
agriculture already dominates landscapes, the maintenance of
biodiversity within these landscapes is an important component
of total biodiversity conservation efforts, and, if managed appro-
priately, can also contribute to agricultural productivity and sus-
tainability through the ecosystem services that biodiversity
provides (such as through pest control, pollination, soil fertility,
protection of water courses against soil erosion, and the removal
of excessive nutrients).

§ Slowing and adapting to climate change (R13). By the end of
the century, climate change and its impacts may be the dominant
direct driver of biodiversity loss and change of ecosystem services
globally. Harm to biodiversity will grow with both increasing
rates in change in climate and increasing absolute amounts of
change. For ecosystem services, some services in some regions
may initially benefit from increases in temperature or precipita-
tion expected under climate scenarios, but the balance of evi-
dence indicates that there will be a significant net harmful impact
on ecosystem services worldwide if global mean surface tempera-
ture increase more than 2° Celsius above preindustrial levels or
faster than 0.2° Celsius per decade (medium certainty). Given the

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 75

inertia in the climate system, actions to facilitate the adaptation
of biodiversity and ecosystems to climate change will be neces-

sary to mitigate negative impacts. These may include the devel-
opment of ecological corridors or networks.

® Slowing the global growth in nutrient loading (even while
increasing fertilizer application in regions where crop yields are con-
strained by the lack of fertilizers, such as parts of sub-Saharan
Africa). Technologies already exist for reduction of nutrient pol-
lution at reasonable costs, but new policies are needed for these
tools to be applied on a sufficient scale to slow and ultimately
reverse the increase in nutrient loading (R9).

B® Correction of market failures and internalization of environ-
mental externalities that lead to the degradation of ecosystem services
(R17, R10, R13). Because many ecosystem services are not
traded in markets, markets fail to provide appropriate signals that
might otherwise contribute to the efficient allocation and sus-
tainable use of the services. In addition, many of the harmful
trade-offs and costs associated with the management of one eco-
system service are borne by others and so also do not weigh into
decisions regarding the management of that service. In countries
with supportive institutions in place, market-based tools can be
used to correct some market failures and internalize externalities,
particularly with respect to provisioning ecosystem services.

® Increased transparency and accountability of government and
private-sector performance in decisions that affect ecosystems, includ-
ing through greater involvement of concerned stakeholders in deci-
sion-making (RWG, SG9). Laws, policies, institutions, and
markets that have been shaped through public participation in
decision-making are more likely to be effective and perceived as
just. Stakeholder participation also contributes to the decision-
making process because it allows for a better understanding of
impacts and vulnerability, the distribution of costs and benefits
associated with trade-offs, and the identification of a broader
range of response options that are available in a specific context.
And stakeholder involvement and transparency of decision-
making can increase accountability and reduce corruption.

B Integration of biodiversity conservation strategies and responses
within broader development planning frameworks. For example,
protected areas, restoration ecology, and markets for ecosystem
services will have higher chances of success if these responses are

76 EcosysTEMs AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

reflected in the national development strategies or in poverty
reduction strategies, in the case of many developing countries. In
this manner, the costs and benefits of these conservation strate-
gies and their contribution to human development are explicitly
recognized in the Public Expenditure Review and resources for
the implementation of the responses can be set aside in national
Mid-Term Budgetary Frameworks (R17).

& Increased coordination among multilateral environmental
agreements and between environmental agreements and other inter-
national economic and social institutions (R17). International
agreements are indispensable for addressing ecosystem-related
concerns that span national boundaries, but numerous obstacles
weaken their current effectiveness. The limited, focused nature of
the goals and mechanisms included in most bilateral and multi-
lateral environmental treaties does not address the broader issue
of ecosystem services and human well-being. Steps are now being
taken to increase coordination among these treaties, and this
could help broaden the focus of the array of instruments. How-
ever, coordination is also needed between the multilateral envi-
ronmental agreements and the more politically powerful
international legal institutions, such as economic and trade
agreements, to ensure that they are not acting at cross-purposes.

@ Enhancement of human and institutional capacity for assessing
the consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being and act-
ing on such assessments (RWG). Technical capacity for agriculture,
forestry, and fisheries management is still limited in many coun-
tries, but it is vastly greater than the capacity for effective man-
agement for ecosystem services not derived from these sectors.

B Addressing unsustainable consumption patterns (RWG). Con-
sumption of ecosystem services and nonrenewable resources
affects biodiversity and ecosystems directly and indirectly. Total
consumption is a factor of per capita consumption, population,
and efficiency of resource use. Slowing biodiversity loss requires
that the combined effect of these factors be reduced.

6. What are the prospects for reducing the rate of loss of biodiversity
by 2010 or beyond and what are the implications for the Convention

on Biological Diversity?

@ Biodiversity will continue to decline during this century.
While biodiversity makes important contributions to human well-
being, many of the actions needed to promote economic devel-
opment and reduce hunger and poverty are likely to reduce
biodiversity. This makes the policy changes necessary to
reverse these trends difficult to agree on and implement in
the short term.

@ Since biodiversity is essential to human well-being and sur-
vival, however, biodiversity loss has to be controlled in the long
term. A reduction in the rate of loss of biodiversity is a neces-
sary first step. Progress in this regard can be achieved by 2010
for some components, but it is unlikely that it can be achieved
for biodiversity overall at the global level by 2010.

@& Many of the necessary actions to reduce the rate of biodi-
versity loss are already incorporated in the programs of work of
the Convention on Biological Diversity, and if fully implemented
they would make a substantial difference. Yet even if existing
measures are implemented, this would be insufficient to address
all the drivers of biodiversity loss.

In April 2002, the Conference of the Parties of the Conven-
tion on Biological Diversity adopted the target, subsequently
endorsed in the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation adopted
at the World Summit on Sustainable Development, to “achieve
by 2010 a significant reduction of the current rate of biodiversity
loss at the global, regional, and national level as a contribution to
poverty alleviation and to the benefit of all life on earth” (CBD
Decision VI/26). In 2004, the Conference of the Parties adopted
a framework for evaluation, including a small number of global
2010 sub-targets, and a set of indicators that will be used in
assessing progress (C4.5.2).

To assess progress toward the target, the Conference of the
Parties defines biodiversity loss as the “long-term or permanent
qualitative or quantitative reduction in components of biodiver-
sity and their potential to provide goods and services, to be
measured at global, regional, and national levels” (CBD Decision
VII/30). The objectives of the Convention and the 2010 target
are translated into policies and concrete action through the
agreement of international guidelines and the implementation of
work programs of the Convention and through National Biodi-
versity Strategies and Action Plans.

An unprecedented effort would be necessary to achieve by
2010 a significant reduction of the current rate of biodiversity
loss at global, regional, and national levels. The 2010 target
implies that the rate of loss of biodiversity—as indicated by mea-
sures of a range of components or attributes—would need to be
significantly less in 2010 than the current or recent trends
described in Key Question 3 of this report. This is unlikely to be
achieved globally for various reasons: current trends show few
indications of slowing the rate of loss; most of the direct drivers
of biodiversity loss are projected to increase; and inertia in
natural and human institutional systems implies lags of years,
decades, or even centuries between actions taken and their
impact on biodiversity and ecosystems (C4, S7, S10, RS).

With appropriate responses at global, regional, and especially
national level, it is possible to achieve, by 2010, a reduction in
the rate of biodiversity loss for certain components of biodiver-
sity or for certain indicators, and in certain regions, and several
of the 2010 sub-targets adopted by the CBD could be met.
Overall the rate of habitat loss—the main driver of biodiversity
loss in terrestrial ecosystems—is slowing in certain regions and
could slow globally if proactive approaches are taken (S10). This
may not necessarily translate into lower rates of species loss, how-
ever, because of the nature of the relationship between numbers
of species and area of habitat, because decades or centuries may
pass before species extinctions reach equilibrium with habitat
loss, and because other drivers of loss, such as climate change,
nutrient loading, and invasive species, are projected to increase.
While rates of habitat loss are decreasing in temperate areas, they
are projected to continue to increase in tropical areas (C4, $10).

At the same time, if areas of particular importance for biodi-
versity and functioning ecological networks are maintained
within protected areas or by other conservation mechanisms, and
if proactive measures are taken to protect endangered species, the
rate of biodiversity loss of the targeted habitats and species could
be reduced. Further, it would be possible to achieve many of the
sub-targets aimed at protecting the components of biodiversity if
the response options that are already incorporated into the CBD
programs of work are implemented. However, it appears highly
unlikely that the sub-targets aimed at addressing threats to biodi-
versity—land use change, climate change, pollution, and invasive
alien species—could be achieved by 2010. It will also be a major
challenge to maintain goods and services from biodiversity to
support human well-being (C4, $10, R5). (See Table 6.1.)

(continued on page 80)

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis TH

able 6.1. ProspEcTS FOR ATTAINING THE 2010 SUB-TARGETS AGREED TO UNDER THE CONVENTION
on BroLocicat Diversity

Goals and Targets

Prospects for Progress by 2010

Protect the components of biodiversity

Goal 1. Promote the conservation of the biological diversity of
ecosystems, habitats, and biomes.

Target 1.1: At least 10% of each of the world’s ecological regions
effectively conserved.

Target 1.2: Areas of particular importance to biodiversity protected.
Goal 2. Promote the conservation of species diversity.

Target 2.1: Restore, maintain, or reduce the decline of populations
of species of selected taxonomic groups.

Target 2.2: Status of threatened species improved.

Goal 3. Promote the conservation of genetic diversity.

Target 3.1: Genetic diversity of crops, livestock, and harvested
species of trees, fish, and wildlife and other valuable species
conserved, and associated indigenous and local knowledge
maintained.

Promote sustainable use
Goal 4. Promote sustainable use and consumption.

Target 4.1: Biodiversity-based products derived from sources that
are sustainably managed, and production areas managed consistent
with the conservation of biodiversity.

Target 4.2: Unsustainable consumption of biological resources or
that has an impact on biodiversity reduced.

Target 4.3: No species of wild flora or fauna endangered by
international trade.

Address threats to biodiversity

Goal 5. Pressures from habitat loss, land use change and
degradation, and unsustainable water use reduced.

Target 5.1: Rate of loss and degradation of natural habitats
decreased.
Goal 6. Control threats from invasive alien species.

Target 6.1: Pathways for major potential alien invasive species
controlled.

Target 6.2: Management plans in place for major alien species that
threaten ecosystems, habitats, or species.

78 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

Good prospects for most terrestrial regions. Major challenge to
achieve for marine regions. Difficult to provide adequate protection
of inland water systems.

Many species will continue to decline in abundance and distribution,
but restoration and maintenance of priority species possible.

More species will become threatened, but species-based actions will |
improve status of some. oe

Good prospects for ex situ conservation. Overall, agricultural
systems likely to continue to be simplified. Significant losses of
fish genetic diversity likely. Genetic resources in situ and traditional
knowledge will be protected through some projects, but likely to
decline overall.

Progress expected for some components of biodiversity. ee
Sustainable use unlikely to be a large share of total products and
production areas. rs

Unsustainable consumption likely to increase.

Progress possible, for example through implementation of the
Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild
Fauna and Flora. Sas

wan

Unlikely to reduce overall pressures in the most biodiversity-sensitive
regions. However, proactive protection of some of the most
important sites is possible. :

Pressure is likely to increase (from greater transport, trade, an
tourism, especially in Global Orchestration scenario). Measu
address major pathways could be put in place (especially in Glob
Orchestration and TechnoGarden scenarios).

Management plans could be developed.

Goals and Targets

Address threats to biodiversity (continued)

Goal 7. Address challenges to biodiversity from climate change
and pollution.

Target 7.1: Maintain and enhance resilience of the components of
biodiversity to adapt to climate change.

Target 7.2: Reduce pollution and its impacts on biodiversity.

Prospects for Progress by 2010

Pressures from both climate change and pollution, especially
nitrogen deposition, will increase. These increases can be mitigated
under UNFCCC for climate change and through agricultural and
trade policy, as well as through energy policy for nitrogen pollution.
Mitigation measures include carbon sequestration through LULUCF
and use of wetiands to sequester or denitrify reactive nitrogen.

Proactive measures to reduce impacts on biodiversity possible, but
challenging given other pressures.

Maintain goods and services from biodiversity to support human well-being

Goal 8. Maintain capacity of ecosystems to deliver goods and
services and support livelihoods.

Target 8.1: Capacity of ecosystems to deliver goods and services
maintained.

Target 8.2: Biological resources that support sustainable
’ livelihoods, local food security, and health care, especially

of poor people, maintained.

Given expected increases in drivers, can probably be achieved
only on a selective basis by 2010. Attainment of target 8.2 would
contribute to the achievement of the MDG 2015 targets, especially
targets 1, 2, and 9.

Protect traditional knowledge, innovations, and practices

Goal 9. Maintain sociocultural diversity of indigenous and local
communities.

Target 9.1: Protect traditional knowledge, innovations, and
practices.

Target 9.2: Protecf the rights of indigenous and local communities
over their traditional knowledge, innovations, and practices,
including their rights to benefit sharing.

Goal 10. Ensure the fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising
out of the use of genetic resources.

Target 10.1: All transfers of genetic resources are in line with the
CBD, the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food
and Agriculture, and other applicable agreements.

Target 10.2: Benefits arising from the commercial and other
utilization of genetic resources shared with the countries providing
such resources.

Ensure the fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising out of the use of genetic resources

It is possible to take measures to protect traditional knowledge and
rights, but continued long-term decline in traditional knowledge likely.

Progress is possible. In the MA scenarios, more equitable outcomes
were obtained under the Global Orchestration and TechnoGarden
scenarios, but were not achieved under Order from Strength.

(continued on page 80)

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 79

On BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY (continued)

Goals and Targets
Ensure provision of adequate resources

Goal 11. Parties have improved financial, human, scientific,
technical, and technological capacity to implement the Convention.

Target 11.1: New and additional financial resources are
transferred to developing-country Parties to allow for the effective
implementation of their commitments under the Convention, in
accordance with Article 20.

Target 11.2: Technology is transferred to developing-country
Parties to allow for the effective implementation of their
commitments under the Convention, in accordance with Article 20.

There is substantial scope for greater protection of biodiver-
sity through actions justified on their economic merits for
material or other benefits to human well-being. Conservation of
biodiversity is essential as a source of particular biological
resources, to maintain different ecosystem services, to maintain
the resilience of ecosystems, and to provide options for the
future. These benefits that biodiversity provides to people have
not been well reflected in decision-making and resource manage-
ment, and thus the current rate of loss of biodiversity is higher
than what it would be had these benefits been taken into account
(R5). (See Figure 6.1.)

However, the total amount of biodiversity that would be con-
served based strictly on utilitarian considerations is likely to be
less than the amount present today (medium certainty). Even if
utilitarian benefits were taken fully into account, planet Earth
would still be losing biodiversity, as other utilitarian benefits
often “compete” with the benefits of maintaining greater diver-
sity. Many of the steps taken to increase the production of spe-
cific ecosystem services require the simplification of natural
systems (in agriculture, for example). Moreover, managing eco-
systems without taking into account the full range of ecosystem
services may not necessarily require the conservation of biodiver-
sity. (For example, a forested watershed could provide clean water
and timber whether it was covered by a diverse native forest or a
single-species plantation, but a single-species plantation may not
provide significant levels of many other services, such as pollina-
tion, food, and cultural services.) Ultimately, the level of biodi-
versity that survives on Earth will be determined to a significant
extent by ethical concerns in addition to utilitarian ones (C4,

C11, S10, R5).

80 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

Table 6.1. PRospEcTs FOR ATTAINING THE 2010 SUB-TARGETS AGREED TO UNDER THE CONVENTION

Trade-offs between achieving the MDG targets for 2015 and

reducing the rate of biodiversity loss are likely. For example,

improving rural road networks—a common feature of hunger
reduction strategies—will likely accelerate rates of biodiversity
loss (directly through habitat fragmentation and indirectly by
facilitating unsustainable harvests of bushmeat and so on). More-
over, one of the MA scenarios (Global Orchestration) suggests that
future development paths that show relatively good progress
toward the MDG of eradicating extreme poverty and improving
health also showed relatively high rates of habitat loss and associ-
ated loss of species over 50 years. (See Figure 6.2.) This does not
imply that biodiversity loss is, in itself, good for poverty and
hunger reduction. Instead, it indicates that many economic
development activities aimed at poverty reduction are likely to
have negative impacts on biodiversity unless the value of biodi-
versity and related ecosystem services are factored in ($10, R19).
In fact, some short-term improvements in material welfare and
livelihoods due to actions that lead to the loss of biodiversity that
is particularly important to the poor and vulnerable may actually
make these gains temporary—and may in fact exacerbate all con-
stituents of poverty in the long term. To avoid this, efforts for the
conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity need to be inte-
grated into countries’ strategies for poverty reduction (S10, R5).
But there are potential synergies as well as trade-offs between
the short-term MDG targets for 2015 and reducing the rate of
loss of biodiversity by 2010. For a reduction in the rate of biodi-
versity loss to contribute to poverty alleviation, priority would
need to be given to protecting the biodiversity of particular
importance to the well-being of poor and vulnerable people.
Given that biodiversity underpins the provision of ecosystem ser-
vices that are vital to human well-being, long-term sustainable
achievement of the Millennium Development Goals requires that
biodiversity loss is reduced controlled as part of MDG 7 (ensur-

ing environmental sustainability).

Given the characteristic response times for human systems
(political, social, and economic) and ecological systems, longer-
term goals and targets—say, for 2050—are needed in addition
to short-term targets to guide policy and actions. Biodiversity
loss is projected to continue for the foreseeable future (S10). The
indirect drivers of biodiversity loss are related to economic,
demographic, sociopolitical, cultural, and technological factors.
Consumption of ecosystem services and of energy and nonre-
newable resources has an impact, directly and indirectly, on bio-
diversity and ecosystems. Total consumption is a factor of per
capita consumption, population, and efficiency of natural
resource use. Halting biodiversity loss (or reducing it to a mini-
mal level) requires that the combined effect of these factors in

driving biodiversity loss be reduced (C4, $7).

Differences in the inertia of different drivers of biodiversity
change and different attributes of biodiversity itself make it
difficult to set targets or goals over a single time frame. For
some drivers, such as the overharvesting of particular species,
lag times are rather short; for others, such as nutrient loading
and, especially, climate change, lag times are much longer.
Addressing the indirect drivers of change may also require
somewhat longer time horizons given political, socioeconomic,
and demographic inertias. Population is projected to stabilize
around the middle of the century and then decrease. Attention
also needs to be given to addressing unsustainable consumption
patterns. At the same time, while actions can be taken to reduce
the drivers and their impacts on biodiversity, some change is
inevitable, and adaptation to such change will become an

1. How Mucu Broprversiry Witt REMAIN A CENTURY FROM Now UNDER DIFFERENT VALUE FRAMEWORKS?

The outer circle in the Figure represents the present level of global biodiversity. Each inner circle represents the level of biodiversity under different
value frameworks. The white area represents non-utilitarian values like ensuring equitable access to biodiversity and intrinsic values. Question

marks indicate uncertainties where the boundaries exist.

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

With consideration of non-utilitarian values:
Additional amount of biodiversity that should be conserved for
non-utilitarian values such as intrinsic values and the equitable
distribution of biodiversity.

With consideration of resilience, thresholds,

and option values:
Additional amount of biodiversity that should be conserved for
utilitarian reasons because of its role in maintaining capacity to
adapt to change, as precaution against thresholds, and for option
and existence values.

With consideration of the biodiversity role

in ecosystem services:

Additional amount of biodiversity that should be conserved for
utilitarian reasons because of its role in providing and sustaining
ecosystem services.

Business as usual:

_” What will remain under current trends and policies given trade-offs
with economic development, agriculture, etc.

Please note that the circle sizes are
only conceptual and do not correspond
to any calculation or estimate.

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 81

increasingly important component of response measures
(C4.5.2, S7, R5).

The world in 2100 could have substantial remaining biodi-
versity or could be relatively homogenized and contain rela-
tively low levels of diversity. Sites that are globally important
for biodiversity could be protected while locally or nationally
important biodiversity is lost. Science can help to inform the

costs and benefits of these different futures and identify paths to
achieve them, along with the risks and the thresholds. Where
there is insufficient information to predict the consequences of
alternative actions, science can identify the range of possible
outcome. Science can thus help ensure that social decisions are
made with the best available information. But ultimately the
choice of biodiversity futures must be determined by society.

igure 6.2. TRADE-OFFS BETWEEN PROMOTING HUMAN WELL-BEING AND LIMITING

Bropiversity Loss UNDER THE Four MA Scenarios TO 2050 (S.SDM, S10)

Loss of biodiversity is least in the two scenarios that feature a proactive approach to environmental
management (TechnoGarden and Adapting Mosaic), while the Global Orchestration scenario does most
to promote human well-being and achieves the fastest progress toward the MDG of eradicating extreme
poverty. The Order from Strength scenario performs badly on both sets of objectives.

Order from Strength Global Orchestration
Material Material
well-being well-being
Social Social
relations Health relations Health
Freedom Security Freedom Security
and choice and choice

Biodiversity loss 4 Biodiversity loss 4
Adapting Mosaic TechnoGarden
Material Material
well-being well-being
|
Social Social
relations Health relations Health
Freedom Security Freedom Security
and choice and choice

GEESE ENSES EEN OS Rm EE
Biodiversity loss 2 Biodiversity loss 2
Year Present Year
2050 situation 2050

Decline

# Loss of vascular plant species on land

Improvement
fone Raa S

82 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

APPENDIXES

APPENDIX A

ABBREVIATIONS, ACRONYMS, AND FIGURE SOURCES

Abbreviations and Acronyms

AM -— Adapting Mosaic (scenario)

CBD — Convention on Biological Diversity
CO: — carbon dioxide

CONABIO — National Commission for
the Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity
(Mexico)

GDP — gross domestic product
GO — Global Orchestration (scenario)

INBio — National Biodiversity Institute
(Costa Rica)

IPCC — Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change

IUCN — World Conservation Union

LULUCF — land use, land use change,
and forestry

MA — Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
MDG —- Millennium Development Goal
NGO — nongovernmental organization
NO: — nitrogen oxides

NWEP — non-wood forest product

OECD -— Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development

OS — Order from Strength (scenario)

PA — protected area

TDR -— tradable development rights
TEV — total economic value

TG — TechnoGarden (scenario)

TSR — total species richness

UNFCCC — United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change

Figure Sources

Most Figures used in this report were redrawn

from Figures included in the technical assess-

ment reports in the chapters referenced in the
Figure captions. Preparation of several Figures

involved additional information as follows:

Figures 1.2 and 1.3

These figures present the 14 biomes of the

WWF terrestrial biome classification, based

on WWF terrestrial ecoregions: Olson, D.
M., E. Dinerstein, E. D. Wikramanayake,
N. D. Burgess, G. V. N. Powell, E. C.
Underwood, J. A. D’Amico, I. Itoua, H.
E. Strand, J. C. Morrison, C. J. Loucks,
T. E Allnutt, T. H. Ricketts, Y. Kura, J. E

Lamoreux, W. W. Wettengel, P. Hedao, and

K. R. Kassem, 2001: Terrestrial ecoregions
of the world: a new map of life on earth.
BioScience, 51, 933-938.

Figure 2.1
This figure was developed from material
cited in R17: Polasky, S., E. Nielson, E.
Lonsdorf, P. Fackler and A. Starfield. Con-
serving Species in a Working Lanscape: Land

Use with Biological and Economic Objectives.

Ecological Applications (in press).

Figures 3.4 and 3.5

These figures were developed from BirdLife
International material cited in C4 and C20:

Butchart, S. H. M., A. J. Stattersfield, L.
A. Bennun, S. M. Shutes, H. R. Akcakaya,
J. E. M. Baillie, S. N. Stuart, C. Hilton-
Taylor, and G. M. Mace, 2004. Measuring
global trends in the status of biodiversity: Red
List Indices for birds. Philosophical Transac-
tions, LoS Biology.

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 83

Figure 3.7

The source figure (C20 Fig 20.12) is
derived from the Living Planet Index in:
Loh, J., and M. Wackernagel, eds., 2004:
The Living Planet Report 2004. Gland, Swit-
zerland: World Wide Fund for Nature and
Cambridge, UK: UNEP-WCMC.

Figure 3.11

This figure was developed from figure

4.3 in: Scholes, R. J., and Biggs, R. (eds)
2004: Ecosystem Services in Southern Africa:
A Regional Assessment. The Regional-Scale
Component of the Southern African Millen-
nium Ecosystem Assessment. CSIR, Pretoria,
South Africa.

Figure 3.15

This figure was developed from material
cited in C4: Wade, T. G., K. H. Riitters, J.
D. Wickham, and K. B. Jones. 2003. Distri-
bution and causes of global forest fragmen-
tation. Conservation Ecology 7(2): 7. Online
at: www.consecol.org/vol7/iss2/art7.

Figure 3.16

The source figure (C20 Fig 20.12) is based
on data and maps provided in: Revenga, C.,
J. Brunner, N. Henninger, K. Kassem, and
R. Payne, 2000: Pilot Analysis of Global Eco-
systems: Freshwater Systems, World Resources
Institute, Washington D.C., 83 pp.

Figure Sources (continued)

Figures 3.17 and 3.18
The source figures (S7 Fig 7.16 and 7.18)
were developed from IFADATA statistics,
downloaded from www. fertilizer.org/ifa/sta-
tistics.asp.

Figure 3.19
The source Figure (R9 Fig 9.2) was modi-
fied to include two additional deposition
maps for 1860 and 2050 that had been in-
cluded in the original source for R9 Fig 9.2:
Galloway, J. P., et al., 2004, Biogeochemistry
70: 153-226.

Figure 3.20

The source figure (S7 Fig 7.13) is based on:
IPCC 2002: Climate Change 2001: Synthesis

Report. Cambridge University Press, Cam-
bridge.

Figures 4.2 and 4.3

These figures use the IMAGE land-cover
biome classification, which differs from
the WWF terrestrial biomes used in figures
1.2 and 1.3, and is a modified version of
the BIOME model: Prentice, I. C., W.
Cramer, S. P. Harrison, R. Leemans, R. A.
Monserud and A. M. Solomon, 1992. A
global biome model based on plant physiology
and dominance, soil properties and climate.
Journal of Biogeography, 19, 117-134.
Further information on the IMAGE model

is available from www.rivm.nl/image

84 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

Figure 4.4
This figure incorporates historical changes
in the WWE biomes as per figures 1.2 and
1.3, with changes under the MA scenarios
using the biome classification of IMAGE, as
used in figures 4.2 and 4.3.

Figure 4.6
This figure was developed using data pres-
ent in S9 and prepared by the Center for
Environmental Systems Research, Univer-
sity of Kassel.

APPENDIX B

ASSESSMENT REPORT TABLES OF CONTENTS

Note that text references to CF, CWG, SWG, RWG, or SGWG refer to the entire Working Group report. ES refers to the Main Messages in a chapter.

Ecosystems and Human Well-being:
A Framework for Assessment

CE1

Ow
CES
CE4

CE5
CE6

CE7
CE8

Introduction and Conceptual
Framework

Ecosystems and Their Services
Ecosystems and Human Well-being
Drivers of Change in Ecosystems
and Their Services

Dealing with Scale

Concepts of Ecosystem Value

and Valuation Approaches
Analytical Approaches

Strategic Interventions, Response
Options, and Decision-making

Current State and Trends:
Findings of the Condition and

Trends Working Group

SDM Summary

C.01 MA Conceptual Framework

C.02 Analytical Approaches for Assessing
Ecosystem Conditions and Human
Well-being

C.03 Drivers of Change (note: this is a
synopsis of Scenarios Chapter 7)

C.04 Biodiversity

C.05 — Ecosystem Conditions and Human
Well-being

C.06 Vulnerable Peoples and Places

C.07 Fresh Water

C.08 Food

C.09 ~~ Timber, Fuel, and Fiber

C.10 New Products and Industries
from Biodiversity

C.11 Biological Regulation of Ecosystem
Services

C.12 Nutrient Cycling

C.13 Climate and Air Quality

C.14 Human Health: Ecosystem
Regulation of Infectious Diseases

C.15 Waste Processing and Detoxification

C.16 Regulation of Natural Hazards:
Floods and Fires

C.17 Cultural and Amenity Services

C.18 = Marine Fisheries Systems

C.19 Coastal Systems

C.20 Inland Water Systems

C21
(€22
E23
C.24
C25
C.26
C27,
C.28

Forest and Woodland Systems
Dryland Systems

Island Systems

Mountain Systems

Polar Systems

Cultivated Systems

Urban Systems

Synthesis

Scenarios: Findings of the
Scenarios Working Group

SDM
S.01
S.02

S.03
S.04

S.05

S.06

Summary
MA Conceptual Framework

Global Scenarios in Historical
Perspective

Ecology in Global Scenarios

State of Art in Simulating Future
Changes in Ecosystem Services

Scenarios for Ecosystem Services:
Rationale and Overview

Methodology for Developing the
MA Scenarios

Drivers of Change in Ecosystem
Condition and Services

Four Scenarios

Changes in Ecosystem Services and
Their Drivers across the Scenarios

Biodiversity across Scenarios
Human Well-being across Scenarios

Interactions among Ecosystem
Services

Lessons Learned for Scenario
Analysis

Policy Synthesis for Key Stakeholders

Policy Responses: Findings of the
Responses Working Group

SDM
R01
R.02
R.03
R.04

R.05
R.06
R.07
R.08

Summary

MA Conceptual Framework
Typology of Responses
Assessing Responses

Recognizing Uncertainties in
Evaluating Responses

Biodiversity
Food and Ecosystems
Freshwater Ecosystem Services

Wood, Fuelwood, and Non-wood
Forest Products

EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis 85

R.09 Nutrient Management

R.10 Waste Management, Processing,
and Detoxification

R.11 Flood and Storm Control

R.12 Ecosystems and Vector-borne
Disease Control

R.13._ Climate Change
R.14 — Cultural Services
R.15 Integrated Responses

R.16 Consequences and Options for
Human Health

R.17._ Consequences of Responses on
Human Well-being and Poverty

Reduction
R.18 Choosing Responses

R.19 Implications for Achieving the
Millennium Development Goals

Multiscale Assessments:
Findings of the Sub-global
Assessments Working Group

SDM — Summary

SG.01 MA Conceptual Framework

SG.02 Overview of the MA Sub-global
Assessments

SG.03 Linking Ecosystem Services and
Human Well-being

SG.04 The Multiscale Approach

SG.05 Using Multiple Knowledge Systems:
Benefits and Challenges

SG.06 Assessment Process

SG.07 Drivers of Ecosystem Change

SG.08 Condition and Trends of Ecosystem
Services and Biodiversity

SG.09 Responses to Ecosystem Change and
their Impacts on Human Well-being

SG.10 Sub-global Scenarios

SG.1i Communities, Ecosystems, and
Livelihoods

SG.12 Reflections and Lessons Learned

Sub-Global Assessments

SG-SAfMA Southern African Assessment
SG-Portugal Portugal Assessment

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Publications

Technical Volumes (available from Island Press)
Ecosystems and Human Well-being: A Framework for Assessment

Current State and Trends: Findings of the Condition and Trends Working
Group, Volume 1

Scenarios: Findings of the Scenarios Working Group, Volume 2
Policy Responses: Findings of the Responses Working Group, Volume 3

Multiscale Assessments: Findings of the Sub-global Assessments Working
Group, Volume 4

Our Human Planet: Summary for Decision-makers

Synthesis Reports (available at MAweb.org)
Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis

Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Biodiversity Synthesis
Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Desertification Synthesis
Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Human Health Synthesis
Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Wetlands Synthesis

Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Opportunities and Challenges
for Business and Industry

86 EcosysTEMS AND HuMAN WELL-BEING: Biodiversity Synthesis

Secretariat Support Organizations

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) coordinates the Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment Secretariat, which is based at the following partner institutions:

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Italy

Institute of Economic Growth, India

International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Mexico (until 2002)
Meridian Institute, United States

National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Netherlands (until mid-2004)
Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE), France
UNEP-World Conservation Monitoring Centre, United Kingdom

University of Pretoria, South Africa

University of Wisconsin-Madison, United States

World Resources Institute (WRI), United States

WorldFish Center, Malaysia

Maps and graphics: Emmanuelle Bournay and Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal, Norway

The production of maps and graphics was made possible by the generous support of the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs of Norway and UNEP/GRID-Arendal.

Photos:

Front cover:
@ Pete Oxford

Back cover:

@ Staffan Widstrand

SZ Be =) C9) ICSU IUCN

G E F International Council for Science The World Conservation Union

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RESOURCES
INSTITUTE

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