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AN ESSAY
Principle of population;
A VIEW OF ITS PAST AND PRESENT EFFECTS
HUMAN HAPPINESS i
WITH
AN INQUIRY INTO OUR PROSPECTS RESPFXTINO THE FUTURE
REMOVAL OR MITIGATION OF THE EVILS WHICH
IT OCCASIONS.
BY T. R. MALTUUS, A. M.
Late Fellow of Jesus College, Cambridge, and Professor of History and
Political Economy in the East-India College, Hertfordshire.
IN THREE VOLUMES.
VOL. II.
THE FIFTH EDITION,
WITH IMPORTANT ADDITIONS.
LONDON:
JOHN MURRAY, ALBEMARLE-STREET
1817.
PrintMl by W. CLOWES, KonhnmherHnd owut. Strand, Londom.
CONTENTS
THE SECOND VOLUiME.
BOOK II.
OF THE CHECKS TO POPULATION IN THE DIFFERENT
STATES OF MODERN EUROPE.
(Continued.)
Chap. p^,
VI. Of the Checks to Population m France .... i
VII. Of the Checks to Population in France
(continued) 31
VIII. Of the Checks to Population in England .. 42
IX. Of the Checks to Population in England
(continued) 80
X. Of the Checks to Population in Scotland and
Ireland 105
XI. On the Fruitfulness of Marriages 133
XII. EflFects of Epidemics on Registers of Births,
Deaths, and Marriages l69
XIII. General Deductions from the preceding View
of Society , 189
BOOK
CONTENTS.
BOOK III.
OF THE DIFFERENT SYSTEMS OR EXPEDIENTS WHICH
HAVE BEEN PROPOSED OR HAVE PREVAILED IN
SOCIETY, AS THEY AFFECT THE EVILS ARISING
FROM THE PRINCIPLE OF POPULATION.
Chap* Page
I. Of Systems of Equality. Wallace, Condor-
cet. 218
II. Of Systems of Equality. Godwin 248
III. Of Systems of Equality (contimied) 271
IV. Of Emigration 287
V. Of Poor-Laws 306
VI. Of Poor-Laws (continued) S3 1
VII. Of Poor-Laws (continued) 35 1
;^II.; Of the Agricultural System 381
.IX. Of the Commercial System 402
X. Of Systems of Agriculture and Commerce,
' combined 420
,XI. Of Corn-Laws. Bounties upon Exportation. 443
XII. Of CorurLaws. Restrictions upon Importa-
tion ..,,..« 47^
X
:xA\i
ESSAY.
E S SAY,
BOOK II.
OF THE CHECKS TO POPULATION IN THE DIF-
FERENT STATES OF MODERN EUROPE.
CHAP. VI.
Of the Checks to Popidation in France.
As the parochial registers in France, be-
lore the revolution, were not kept with
particular care, nor for any great length of
time, and as the tew which have been pro-
duced exhibit no very extraordinary re-
sults, I should not have made this country
tlie subject of a distinct chapter, but for
a circumstance attending the revolution,
which has excited considerable surprise.
This is, the undiminished state of the popu-
lation in spite of the losses sustained during
so long and destructive a contest.
VOL. II, c A great
2 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
A great national work, founded on the
reports of the prefects in the different de-
partments, is at present in some state of
forwardness at Paris, and when completed
may reasonably be expected to form a
very valuable accession to the materials of
statistical science in general. The returns
of all the prefects are not however yet com-
plete ; but I was positively assured by the
person who has the principal superintend-
ence of them, that enough is already known
to be certain that the population of the
old territory of France has rather increased
than diminished during the revolution.
Such an event, if true, very strongly con-
firms the general principles of this work ;
and assuming it for the present as a fact, it
may tend to throw some light on the sub-
ject, to trace a little in detail the manner in
which such an event might happen.
In every country there is alwa3^s a consi-
derable body of unmarried persons, formed
by the gradual accumulation of the excess
of the number arising annually to the age
of puberty above the number of persons
annually married. The stop to the further
accumulation of this body is when its num-
ber
Ch. vi. in France. 3
ber is such, that the yearly mortahty equals
the yearly accessions that arc made to it.
In the Pays de Vaud, as appeared in the
last chapter, this body, including widows and
widowers, persons who are not actually in
the state of marriage, equals the whole num-
ber of married persons. But in a country
like France, where both the mortality and
the tendency to marriage are much greater
than in Switzerland, this body docs not bear
so large a proportion to the population.
Accordino; to a calculation in an Essai
d'une Statistique Gcnhale, published at-Paris
in 1800, by M. Peuchet, the number of
unmarried males in France between 18 and
50 is estimated at 1,451,063 ; and the num-
ber of males, whether married or not, be-
tween the same ages, at 5,000,000". It
does not a])pear at what period exactly this
calculation was made; but as the audior
uses the expression en icmn ordinaire, it ispio-
bable that he refers to the period before the
revolution. Let us su})pose, then, that this
number of 1,451,063 expresses the collective
body of unmarried males of a military age
at the commencement of the revolution.
• P. 32, 8vo. 78 pages.
B 2 The
4 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
The population of France before the
beginning of the war was estimated by
the Constituent Assembly at 26,363,074 '^ ;
and there is no reason to believe that this
calculation was too high. Necker, though
he mentions the number 24,800,000, ex-
presses his firm belief that the yearly births
at that time amounted to above a million,
and consequently, according to his multi-
plier of 25f, the whole population was
nearly 26 milhons^; and this calculation
was made ten years previous to the estimate
of the Constituent Assembly.
Taking then the annual births at rather
above a million, and estimating that rather
above f would die under 18, which ap-
pears to be the case from some calcula-
tions of M. Peuchet*', it will follow, that
about 600,000 persons will annually arrive
at the age of 18.
The annual marriages, according to
Necker, are 213,774 ^ ; but as this number
• A. Young's Travels in France, vol. i. c. 17, p. 466,
4to. 1792.
•* De r Administration des Finances, torn. i. c. ix. p. 256,
12mo. 1785.
«= Essai, p. 31.
^ De rAdministration des Finances, torn. i. c. ix. p. 255.
is
Ch. vi. in France. 5
is an average of ten years, taken while the
population was increasing, it is probably
too low. If we take 220,000, then 440,000
persons will be supposed to marry out of
the 600,000 rising to a marriageable age ;
and, consequently, the excess of those rising
to the age of 18 above the number wanted
to complete the usual proportion of annual
marriages, will be 160,000, or 80,000 males.
It is evident, therefore, that the accumulated
body of l,4o 1,063 unmarried males, of a
military age, and the annual supply of
80,000 youths of 18, might be taken for
the service of the state, without affecting in
any degree the number of annual marriages.
But we cannot suppose that the 1,451,063
should be taken all at once ; and many sol-
diers are married, and in a situation not to
be entirely useless to the population. Let
us suppose 600,000 of the corps ot unmar-
ried males to be embodied at once ; and
this number to be kept up by the annual
supply of 150,000 persons, taken partly
from the 80,000, rising annually to the age
of 18, and not wanted to complete the num-
ber of annual marriages, and partly from
the
6 Of the Checks to Population Bk. it.
the 851,063 remaining of the body of un-
married males, which existed at the begin-
ning of the war.
It is evident, that from these two sources
150,000 might be supplied each year, for
ten years, and yet allow of an inciease in
the usual number of annual marriages of
above 10,000.
It is true that in the course of the ten
years many of the original body of un-
married males will have passed the military
age ; but this will be balanced, and indeed
much more than balanced, by their utility
in the married life. From the beginning it
should be taken into consideration, that
though a man of fifty be generally consi-
dered as past the military age, yet, if he
marry a fruitful subject, he may by no
means be useless to the population ; and in
fact the supply of 150,000 recruits each
year would be taken principally from the
300,000 males rising annually to 18 ; and
the annual marriages would be supplied in
a great measure from the remaining part of
the original body of unmarried persons.
Widowers and bachelors of forty and fifty,
who
Ch. vi. in France. 7
who in the common state of things might
have found it difficult to obtain an agreea-
ble partner, would probably see these dif-
ficulties removed in such a scarcity of hus-
bands ; and the absence of 600,000 persons
would of course make room for a very con-
siderable addition to the number of annual
marriages. This addition in all probability
took place. Many among the remaining
part of the original body of bachelors, who
might otherwise have continued single,
would marry under this change of circum-
stances ; and it is known that a very con-
siderable portion of youths under 18, in
order to avoid the military conscriptions,
entered prematurely into the married state.
This was so much the case, and contributed
so much to diminish the number of unmar-
ried persons, that in the beginning of the
year 1798 it was found necessary to repeal
the law, which had exempted married per-
sons from the conscriptions; and those who
married subsequently to this new regula-
tion were taken indiscriminately with the
unmarried. And though after this the It-
vies fell in part upon those who wore
actually
8 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
actually engaged in the peopling of the coun-
try; yet the number of marriages untouched
by these levies might still remain greater than
the usual number of marriages before the
revolution ; and the marriages which were
broken by the removal of the husband to
the armies would not probably have been
entirely barren.
Sir Francis dlveniois, who had certainly
a tendency to exaggerate, and probably
has exaggerated considerably, the losses of
the French nation, estimates the total loss
of the troops of France, both by land and
sea, up to the year 1799, at a million and a
half ^. The round numbers which I have
* Tableau des Pertes, &c. c. ii. p. 7. — Mons. Gamier,
in the notes to his edition of Adam Smith, calculates that
only about a sixtieth part of the French population was
destroyed in the armies. He supposes only 500,000
embodied at once, and that this number was supplied by
400,000 more in the course of the war; and allowing for
the number which would die naturally, that the additional
mortality occasioned by the war was only about 45,000
each year. Tom. v. note xxx. p. 284. If the actual
loss were no more than these statements make it, a small
increase of births would have easily repaired it ; but I
should think that these estimates are probably as much
below the truth, as Sir Francis d'lveniois's are above.
allowed.
Ch. vi. iti France. 9
allowed lor the sake of illustrating the sub-
ject, exceed Sir Francis d'lvernois's esti-
mate by six hundred thousand. He calcu-
lates however a loss of a million of [)ersons
more, from the other causes of destruction
attendant on the revolution ; but as this
loss fell indiscriminately on all ages and
both sexes, it would not affect the popula-
tion in the same degree, and will be nuich
more than covered by the 600,000 men in
the full vigour of life, which remain above
Sir Francis's calculation. It should be ob-
sened also, that in the latter part of the
revolutionary war the military conscriptions
were probably enforced with still more se-
verity in the newly-acquired territories than
in the old state ; and as the population of
these new acquisitions is estimated at five
or six millions, it would bear a considerable
proportion of the million and a half sup-
posed to be destroyed in the amiies. The
law^ which facilitated divorces to so great
a degree in the early part of the revolu-
tion was radically bad both in a moi*al
and political view, yet, under the circum-
stance of a great scarcity of men, it would
iipcratc
10 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
operate a little like the custom of polygamy,
and increase the number of children in pro-
portion to the number of husbands. In
addition to this, the women without hus-
bands do not appear all to have been barren;
as the proportion of illegitimate births is
now raised to yV of the whole number of
births, from V, % which it was before the
revolution; and though this be a melan-
choly proof of the depravation of morals,
yet it would certainly contribute to increase
the number of births ; and as the female
peasants in France were enabled to earn
more than usual during the revolution, on
account of the scarcity of hands, it is pro-
bable that a considerable portion of these
children would survive.
Under all these circumstances, it cannot
appear impossible, and scarcely even im-
probable, that the population of France
should remain undiminished, in spite of all
the causes of destruction which have ope-
rated upon it during the course of the
revolution, provided the agriculture of
the country has been such as to continue
• Essai de Peuchet, p. 28.
the
Cli. vi. i?i Fra}ice. 1 1
the means of subsistence unimpaired. And
it seems now to be generally acknowledged
that, however severely the manufiKtures of
France may have suflered, her agiiculUire
has increased rather than diminished. At
no period of the war can we suppose that
the number of embodied troops exceeded
the number of men employed before the
revolution in manufactures. Those who
were thrown out of work by the destruction
of these manufactures, and who did not go
to the armies, would of course betake them-
selves to the labours of agriculture ; and it
was always the custom in France for the
women to work much in the fields, which
custom was probably increased during the
revolution. At the same time, the absence
of a large portion of the best and most vi-
gorous hands would raise the price of labour ;
and as, from the new land brought into cul-
tivation, and the absence of a considerable
part of the greatest consumers " in foreign
countries,
» Supposing the increased number of children at any
period to equal the number of im-n absent in the armies,
yet these children, being all very young, could not be
supposed
12 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
countries, the price of provisions would not
rise in proportion, this advance in the price
of labour would not only operate as a power-
ful encouragement to marriage, but would
enable the peasants to live better, and to
rear a greater number of their children.
At all times the number of small farmers
and proprietors in France was great ; and
though such a state of things is bj no means
favourable to the clear surplus produce or
disposable wealth of a nation ; yet some-
times it is not unfavourable to the abso-
lute produce, and it has always a strong
tendency to encourage population. From
the sale and division of many of the
large domains of the nobles and clergy, the
number of landed proprietors has consider-
ably increased during the revolution; and
as a part of these domains consisted of
parks and chaces, new territory has been
given to the plough. It is true that the
land-tax has been not only too heavy, but
injudiciously imposed. It is probable,
supposed to consume a quantity equal to that which
would be consumed by the same number of grown-up
persons.
however,
Ch. vi. in France. 13
however, that this disadvantage has been
nearly counterbalaneed by the renioNal of
the former oppressions, under whieh the
cultivator laboured ; and that the sale and
division of the great domains may Ug eon-
sidered as a elear advantage on the side of
agriculture, or at any rate of tlie gross [)ro-
duce, which is the principal point with re-
gard to mere population.
These considerations make it appear pro-
bable that the means of subsistence have at
least remained unimj)aired, if they ha\'e not
increased, during the revolution ; and a
view of the cultivation of France in its pre-
sent state certainly rather tends to confirm
this supposition.
We shall not therefore be inclined to
agree with Sir Francis d'lvernois in his
conjecture that the annual births in France
have diminished by one-seventh during
the revolution ^ On the contrary, it is
more probable that they have increased by
this number. The average j)roportion of
births to the population in all France, be-
fore the revolution, was, according to
• Tableau des Pertes, &c. c. ii. p. U.
Necker,
14 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
Necker, as 1 to 25 J ^. It has appeared in
the reports of some of the prefects which
have been returned, that the proportion in
many country places was raised to 1 to 21,
22, 22i, and 23 ^ ; and though these pro-
portions might, in some degree, be caused
by the absence of a part of the population
in the armies, yet I have little doubt that
they are principally to be attributed to the
birth of a greater number of children than
usual. If, when the reports of all the pre-
fects are put together, it should appear,
that the number of births has not increased
in proportion to the population, and 3^et
that the population is undiminished ; it will
follow, either that Necker's multiplier for
the births was too small, which is extremely
probable, as from this cause he appears to
have calculated the population too low ; or
that the mortality among those not exposed
to violent deaths has been less than usual ;
which, from the high price of labour and
the desertion of the towns for the country,
is not unlikely.
* De rAdministratiou des FiDances, torn. i. c.ix. p. 254.
^ Essai de Peuchet, p. 28.
According
Ch. vi. in France. 15
According to Necker and Molicau, the
mortality in France, before the revolution,
was 1 in 30 or 30^ '\ Considcrinii; that the
proportion of the population which lives in
the country is to that in the towns as 3| to
1 ^, this mortahty is extraordinarily great,
caused probably by the misery arising
from an excess of population ; and from
the remarks of Arthur Young on the state of
the peasantry in France % which are com-
pletely sanctioned by Necker*^, this ap-
pears to have been really tlie case. If we
suppose that, from the removal of a part
of this redundant population, the mortality
has decreased from 1 in 30 to 1 in 33, this
favourable change would go a considerable
way in repairing the breaches made by war
on the frontiers.
The probability is, that both the causes
' De rAdministrationdes Finances, torn. i. c. ix. p.2J5
Essai de Peuchet, p. 29.
•* Young's Travels in France, vol. i. c. xvii. p. 466.
* See generally c. xvii. vol. i. and the just observations
on these subjects interspersed in many oilier parts of
his very valuable Tour.
^ De rAdministratioD des FioaHCCs, torn. i. c. ix. p. 9.61,
et 6eq.
mentioned
16 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
mentioned have operated in part. The
births have increased, and the deaths of
those remaining in the country have dimi-
nished ; so that, putting the two circum-
stances together, it will probably appear,
when the results of all the reports of the
prefects are known, that, including those
who have fallen in the armies and by vio-
lent means, the deaths have not exceeded
the births in the course of the revolu-
tion.
The returns of the prefects are to be
given for the 3ear IX. of the republic, and
to be compared with the year 1789; but
if the proportion of births to the popu-
lation be given merely for the individual
year IX. it will not shew the average
proportion of births to the population
during the course of the revolution. In
the confusion occasioned by this event, it
is not probable that any very exact registers
should have been kept; but from theory I
should be inclined to expect that soon after
the beginning of the war, and at other
periods during the course of it, the propor-
tion of births to the whole population would
be
Ch. vi. /// France. 17
be greater than in 1800 and 1801 '. If ii
sliould appear by the returns, that the nuni-
])er
" In the Statistlfjue Gmcrah ct Particulitre de la
France, et de sea Colo/iies, lately published, the returns of
the prefects for the year IX. are given, and seem to jus-
tify this conjecture. The births are 955,430, the deaths
821,871, and the marriages 202,177. These numbers
hardly equal Necker's estimates; and yet all the calcu-
lations in this work, both with respect to the whole po-
pulation and its proportion to a square league, make the
old territory of France more populous now than at the
beginning of the revolution. The estimate of the popu-
lation, at the period of the Constituent Assembly, has
already been mentioned; and at this lime the number of
persons to a square league was reckoned QOO- ^n the
year VI. of the republic, the result of the Bureau de
Cadastre gave a population of 26,048,254, and the num-
ber to a square league 1,020. In the year VII. Depere
calculated the whole population of France at 33,501,01)4,
of which 28,810,694 belonged to ancient France; the
number to a square league 1,101; but the calculations,
it appears, were founded upon the tirst estimate made by
the Constituent Assembly, which was afterwards rejected
as too high. In the years IX. and X. the addition of
Piedmont and the isle of Elba raised the whole popida-
tion to 34,376,313; the number to a square league 1,086.
The number belonging to Old France is not stated. It
tieems to have been about 28,000,000.
In the face of these calculations, the author takes a
lower nmltiplier than Necker for the births, observing,
tliat though Necker's proportions remained uue in the
VOL. II, C '^^^"»
18 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
ber of annual marriages has not increased
during the revolution, the circumstance
will
towns, yet in the country the proportion of births had in-
creased to.i_, _i_, _i_i, _i_, which he attributes to the
21' 22' 22 2' 23'
premature marriages, to avoid the military levies ; and on
the whole, concludes with mentioning 25 as the proper
multiplier. And yet, if we make use of this multiplier,
we shall get a population under 25 millions, instead of
28 millions. It is true, indeed, that no just inferences
can be drawn from the births of a single year ; but, as
these are the only births referred to, the contradiction is
obvious. Perhaps the future returns may solve the dif-
ficulty, and the births in the following years be greater ;
but I am inclined to think, as 1 have mentioned in the
text, that the greatest increase in the proportion of births
was before the year IX. and probably durhig the first six
or seven years of the republic, while married persons
were exempt from the military conscriptions. If the
state of the agricultural part of the nation has been im-
proved by the revolution, I am strongly inclined to be-
lieve that the proportions both of births and deaths will
be found to diminish. In so fine a climate as France,
nothing but the very great misery of the lower classes
could occasion a mortality of ^i_, and a proportion of
births as _i_ a according to Necker's calculations. And
25 4> _ *=
consequently, upon this supposition, the births for the
year IX. may not be incorrect, and in future the births
and deaths may not bear so large a proportion to the po-
pulation. The contrast between France and England in
this respect is quite wonderful.
The part of this work relating to population is not
drawn
Ch. vi. in France. 19
will be obviously accounted for by the ex-
traordinary increase in the illegiliinate
births mentioned before in this chapter,
which amount at present to one-eleventh
of all the births, instead of one-forty -seventh,
drawn up with mucli knowledge of tho subjert. One
remark is very curious. It is observed that the propor-
tion of marriages to the population is as 1 to 1 10, and of
births as 1 to £5; from which it is inferred, that one-fourth
of the born live to marry. If this inference were just,
France would soon be depopulated.
In calculating the value of lives, the author makes use
of Buffon's tables, wiiich arc entirely incorrect, being
founded principally on registers taken from the villages
round Paris. They make the probability of life at
birth only a little above eight years ; which, taking the
towns and the country together, is very short of the just
average.
Scarcely anv thing worth noticing has been added iu
this work to the details given in the Essay of Piuchet,
which 1 have already frequently referred to. On the
whole I have not seen sufficient grounds to make me alter
any of my conjectures in this chapter, though probably
they are not all well-founded. Indeed, in adopting Sir
F. d'lvernois' calculations respecting the actual loss of
men during the revolution, I never thought my self borne
out by facts ; but the reader will be aware that 1 adopted
them rather for the sake of illustratiou than from bu|>-
posing them strictly true.
c 2 according
20 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
according to the ca J dilation of Necker be-
fore the revolution ^.
Sir Francis crivernois observes, "that
" those have yet to learn the first principles
" of political arithmetic, who imagine that
" it is in the field of battle and the hospi-
" tals that an accomit can be taken of the
" lives which a revolution or a war has
" cost. The number of men it has killed
" is of much less importance than the num-
" ber of children Avhich it has prevented,
'* and will still prevent, from coming into
" the world. This is the deepest wound
" which the population of France has re-
" ceived." — " Supposing/' he says, " that,
" of the whole number of men destroyed,
" only two millions had been united to as
" many females : according to the calcu-
" lation of Buffon, these two millions of
" couples ought to bring into the world
^ Essai de Peuchet, p. 28. It is highly probable that
this increase of illegitimate births occasioned a more than
usual number of children to be exposed in those dreadful
receptacles, les Hopitaux des Enfans trouves, as noticed
by Sir Francis d'lvernois ; but probably this cruel custom
was confined to particular districts, and the number ex-
posed, upon the whole, might bear no great proportion
to the sum of all the births.
" twelve
Ch. VI. w France. 21
" twelve millions of children, in order to
" supply, at the age of thirty-nine, a nuni-
" ber equal to that of their parents. 'J 'his
" is a point of view, in which the conse-
" quences of such a destruction of men be-
" come almost incalculable; because they
" have nuich more effect with reo-ard
" to the twelve millions of children, which
" they prevent from coming into existence,
" than with regard to the actual loss of the
" tW'O milhons and a half of men for whom
" France mourns. It is not till a luture
" period that she will be able to estimate
" this dreadful breach '^."
And yet, if the foregoing reasonings
are well-founded, France may not have
lost a single birth by the revolution. She
has the most just reason to mourn the
two millions and a half of inthviduals
which she may have lost, but not their
posterity ; because, if these individuals
had remained in the country, a propor-
tionate number of children bom of other
parents, which are now living in France,
would not have come into existence. If. in
' Tableau dcs Pertes, &c. c. ii, p. 13, 14.
the
22 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
the best-governed country in Europe, we
were to mourn the posterity which is pre-
vented from coming into being, we should
always wear the habit of grief.
It is evident that the constant tendency
of the births in every country, to supply
the vacancies made, b}^ death, cannot, in a
moral point of view, afford the slightest
shadow of excuse for the wanton sacrifice
of men. The positive evil, that is com-
mitted in this case, the pain, miser} , and
wide-spreading desolation and sorrow, that
are occasioned to the existing inhabitants,
can by no means be counterbalanced by the
consideration, that the numerical breach in
the population will be rapidly repaired.
We can have no other right, moral or poli-
tical, except that of the most urgent neces-
sity, to exchange the lives of beings in the
full vigour of their enjoyments, for an equal
number of helpless infants.
It should also be remarked that, though
the numerical population of France may
not have suffered by the revolution, yet, if
her losses have been in any degree equal to
the conjectures on the subject, her military
strength
Ch. vi. in France. 23
Strength cannot be unimpaired. Her po-
pulation at present must consist of a much
greater proportion than usual of women
and children ; and the body of unmarried
persons, of a military age, must be dimi-
nished in a very striking manner. This
indeed is known to be the case, from tlie
returns of the prefects which have already
been received.
It has appeared that the point at which
the drains of men will begin essentially to
affect the population of a country is, when
the original body of unmarried persons is
exhausted, and the annual demands are
greater than the excess of the number of
males, rising annually to the age of puberty,
above the number wanted to complete the
usual proportion of annual marriages.
France was probably at some distance
from this point at the conclusion of the
war ; but in the present state of her popu-
lation, with an increased proportion of
women and children, and a great diminu-
tion of males of a military age, she could
not make the same gigantic exertions,
which were made at one period, without
trenching
24 Of the Checks to Population Bk. iL
trenching on the sources of her popu-
lation.
At all times the number of males of a
military age in France was small in pro-
portion to the population, on account of
the tendency to marriage % and the great
number of children. Necker takes parti-
cular notice of this circumstance. He ob-
serves, that the effect of the very great
misery of the peasantry is to produce a
dreadful mortality of infants under three or
four years of age ; and the consequence is,
that the number of young children will al-
wa3's be in too great a proportion to the
number of grown-up people. A million of
individuals, he justly obseiTCs, will in this
case neither present the same military force
nor the same capacity of labour, as an
equal number of individuals in a country
where the people are less miserable ''.
Switzerland, before the revolution, could
have brought into the field, or have emplo3^ed
* The proportion of marriages to the population in
France, according to Necker, is 1 to 113, torn. i. c. ix.
p. 255.
^ De TAdministration des Finances, torn. i. c. ix. p. 263.
in
Ch. vi. Ill France. 25
in labour appropriate to grown-up persons,
a much greater proportion of her popuhi-
tion than France at the same period ^
For
" Since I wrote this chapter, I have had an opportunity
of seeing the Analyse des Proccs J'erbaux des Couscils
Gcucmux de Depart c/ncntj which gives a very particnhir
and highly curious account of tlie internal state of France
for the year VIII. With respect to the population, out of
69 departments, the reports from which are given, in Hi
the population is supposed to be increased ; in 4'2 di-
minished ; in 9 stationary ; and in 2 the active population
is said to be diminished, but the numerical to remain the
same. It appears, however, that most of these reports
are not founded on actual enumerations ; and without
such positive data, the prevailing opinions on the subject
of population, together with the necessary and universally
acknowledged fact of a very considerable diminution in
the males of a military age, would naturally dispose peo-
ple to think that the numbers upon the whole must be
diminished. Judging merely from appearances, the sub-
stitution of a hundred children for a hundred growii-np
persons would certainly not protiuce the same impression
with regard to population. 1 should not be surprised,
therefore, if, when the enumerations for the year IX. are
completed, it should appear that the population upon
the whole has not diminished. In some of tlie reports
V ai sauce gaicr ah rcpandiie snr lepcupie, and la division des
grands propriefcs, are mentioned as the causes of increase;
and almost universally, ies mariages prvmatnrh, and les
mnriages mu/tiplies par la crainte des loix milif aires, are
particularly noticed.
^ ^ With
26 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
For the state of population in Spain,
I refer the reader to the valuable and enter-
taining travels of Mr. Town send in that
country.
With respect to the state of agriculture, out of 78 re-
ports, 6 are of opinion that it is improved ; 10, that it is
deteriorated ; 70 demand that it should be encouraged in
general ; 32 complain de la 7nidtipUcit4 des defrichemens ;
and 12 demand des encouragemens pour les defrichemens.
One of the reports mentions, la quautite prodigieuse de
terres vagues mise en culture depuis quelque terns, et les
travaux multipli^es, au dela de ce que peuvent ex4cuter les
bras employes en agriculture; and others speak of les de-
frichemens muttipUees qui out eu lieu depuis plusieurs an-
nees, which appeared to be successful at first ; but it was
soon perceived that it would be more profitable to cul-
tivate less, and cultivate well. Many of the reports no-
tice the cheapness of corn, and the want of sufiicient vent
for this commodity ; and in the discussion of the question
respecting the division of the hiens communaux, it is ob-
served, that, " le partage, en operant le defrichement de
" ces biens, a sans doute produit une augmentation reelle
" de denrees, mais d'un autre cote, les vaines patures
" n'existentplus, etles bestiaux sont peut-etre diminues."
On the whole therefore I should be inclined to infer that,
though the agriculture of the country does not appear
to have been conducted judiciously so as to obtain a
large neat produce, yet the gross produce had by no
means been diminished during the revolution ; and that
the attempt to bring so much new land under cultivation
had contributed to make the scarcity of labourers still
more
Ch. vi. in Frame. 27
country, in which he will often find the
principle of population very happily illus-
trated. I should have made it the subject
of
more sensible. And if it be allowed that the food of the
country did not decrease during the revolution, the high
price of labour, which is very generally noticed, must
have operated as a most powerful encouragement to po-
pulation among the labouring part of the society.
The laud-tax, or contribution foncitre, is universally
complained of; indeed it appears to be extremely heavy,
and to fall very unequally. It was intended to be only a
fifth of the neat produce ; but, from the unimproved state
of agriculture in general, the number of small proprietors,
and particularly the attempt to cultivate too much surface
in proportion to the capital employed, it often amounts
to a fourth, a third or even a half. When property is so
much divided that the rent and profit of a farm must be
combined, in order to support a family upon it, a land-
tax must necessarily greatly impede cultivation ; though
it has little or no effect of this kind when farms are large^
and let out to tenants, as is most frequently the case in
England. Among the impediments to agriculture men-
tioned in the reports, the too great division of lands from
the new laws of succession is noticed. The partition of
some of the great domains would probably contribute to the
improvement of agriculture ; but subdivisions of the nature
here alluded to would certaiidy have a contrary eftect,
and would tend most parti( ularly to diminish neat
produce, and make a land-tax both oppressive and un-
productive. If all the land iu England were divided into
farnw
28 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
of a distinct chapter, but was fearful of
extending this part of the work too much,
and of falhng ahnost unavoidably into too
many
farms of 20/. a year, we should probably be more popu-
lous than we are at present ; but as a nation we should be
extremely poor. We should be almost without disposable
revenue, and should be under a total inability of main-
taining the same number of manufactures or collecting
the same taxes as at present. All the departments de-
mand a diminution of the contribution foncitre as abso-
lutely necessary to the prosperity of agriculture.
Of the state of the hospitals and charitable establish-
ments, of the prevalence of beggary and the mortality
among the exposed children, a most deplorable picture is
drawn in almost all the reports ; from which we should at
first be disposed to infer a greater degree of poverty and
misery among all the lower classes of people in general.
It appears, however, that the hospitals and charitable
establishments lost almost the whole of their revenues
during the revolution ; and this sudden subtraction of
support from a great number of people who had no
other reliance, together with the known failure of ma-
nufactures in the towns, and the very great increase of
illegitimate children, might produce all the distressing
appearances described in the reports, without impeaching
the great fact of the meliorated condition of agricultural
labourers in general, necessarily arising from the acknow-
ledged high price of labour and comparative cheapness
of corn ; and it is from this part of the society that the
effective population of a country is principally supplied.
If
Ch. vi. 171 Franct. 29
many repetitions, from tlic necessity of
drawing the same kind of inference from so
many different countries. I could cxj)ect,
besides,
If the poor's rates of England were suddenly abolished,
there would undoubtedly be the most complicated distress
among those who were before supported by them ; but I
should not expect that either the condition of the labour-
ing part of the society in general, or the population of the
country, would suffer from it. As the proportion of ille-
gitimate children in France has risen so extraordinarily as
from _L- of all the births to j_, it is evident that more
might be abandoned in hospitals, and more out of these die
than usual, and yet a more than usual number be reared at
home, and escape the mortality of those dreadful recep-
tacles. It appears that from the low state of the funds
in the hospitals the proper nurses could not be paid, and
numbers of children died from absolute famine. Some
of the hospitals at last very properly refused to receive
any more.
The reports, upon the whole, do not present a favour-
able picture of the internal state of France ; but some-
thing is undoubtedly to be attributed to the nature of these
reports, which, consisting as they do ofobservations ex plain-
ing the state of the different departments, und of particular
demands, with a view to obtain assistance or relief from
government, it is to be expected that they should lean
rather to the unfavourable side. When the question m
respecting the imposition of new taxes, or the relief from
old ones, people will generally complain of their poverty.
On the subject of taxes, indeed, it would appear, as if
the
30 Of the Checks to Popidation, S^x. Bk. ii.
besides, to add very little to what has been
so well done by Mr. Townsend.
the French goveinraeut must be a little puzzled. For
though it very properly recommended to the Conseils g6-
n^raiix not to indulge in vague complaints, but to mention
specific grievances, and propose specific remedies, and
particularly not to advise the abolition of one tax without
suggesting another ; yet all the taxes appear to me to be
reprobated, and most frequently in general terms, without
the proposal of any substitute. L.a contribution fonciere,
la taxe mobilia7-e, les barrieres, les droits de douane, all
excite bitter complaints ; and the only new substitute that
struck me was a tax upon game, which, being at present
almost extinct in France, cannot be expected to yield a re-
venue sufficient to balance all the rest. The work, upon the
whole, is extremely curious ; and as shewing ihe wish of
the government to know the state of each department,
and to listen to every observation and proposal for its im-
provement, is highly creditable to the ruling power. It was
published for a short time ; but the circulation of it was soon
stopped and confined to the ministers, les conseils g^n^raux,
&c. Indeed the documents are evidently more of a
private than of a public nature, and certainly have not the
air of being intended for general circulation.
CHAP.
( 31 )
CHAP. VII.
Of the Checks to Population in France (continued).
1 HAVE not thought it advisable to alter
the conjectural calculations and supposi-
tions of the preceding chaj)tcr, on account
of the returns of the prefects for the year
IX, as well as some returns published since
by the government in 1813, having given
a smaller proportion of births thau I had
thought probable; tirst, because these re-
turns do not contain the early years of the
revolution, when the encouragement to mar-
riage and the proportion of l^irths might be
expected to be the greatest ; and secondly,
because they still seem fully to estabhsh the
main fact, which it was the o})ject of the
chapter to account for, namely, the undi-
minished population of France, notwith-
standing the losses sustained during the
revolution : although it may have been ef-
fected rather by a decreased ])roportion of
deaths
32 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
deaths than an increased proportion of
biiths.
According to the returns of the year IX,
the proportions of the births, deaths, and
marriages, to the whole population, are as
follows : —
Births. Deaths. Marriages.
1 in 33 1 in SSJ 1 in 151 \
But these are in fact only the proportions
of one year, from which no certain inference
can be drawn. They are also applied to a
population between three and four millions
greater than was contained in ancient
France, which population may have always
had a smaller proportion of births, deaths,
and marriages ; and further, it appears
highly probable from some of the statements
in the Analyse des Proces Ver-baux, that the
^ See a valuable note of M. Prevost of Geneva to his
Translation of this Work, vol. ii. p. 88. M. Prevost thinks
it probable that there are omissions in the returns of the
births, deaths, and marriages, for the year IX. He further
shews that the proportion of the population to the square
league for Old France should be 1014, and not 1086.
But if there is reason to believe that there are omissions in
the registers, and that the population is made too great,
(he real proportions will be essentially different from those
which are here given,
registers
Ch. vii. i/i France (continued). 33
registers had not been very carclully kept.
Under these circumstances, they cannot be
considered as proving what the numbers
imply.
In the year XL, according to the Statis-
tique Elementaire by Peuchet, pubhshed
subsequently to his Essai, an inquiry was
instituted under the orders of J\I. Chaptal
for the express purpose of ascertaining the
average proportion of births to the popula-
tion*; and such an inquiry, so soon after
the returns of the year IX., affords a clear
proof that these returns were not considered
by the minister as correct. In order to ac-
complish the object in view, choice was
made of those connnunes in SO depart-
ments distributed over the whole surface of
France, which were likely to atibrd the
most accurate returns. And these returns
forthe years VIII., IX., and X., gave a pro-
portion of births as 3 in 28-iVo-; o^ deaths,
as 1 in 30J2^^; '*^'^^^ o^ marriages, as 1 in
±<^A. 10 0 0*
It is observed l)y M. Pcuchcl that the
proportion of population to the births is
* P. 331. Paris, 1805.
VOL. II. n •it'ie
34 Of the Checks to Population Bk, ii.
here much greater than had been formerly
assumed, but he thinks that, as this calcula-
tion had been made from actual enumera-
tions, it should be adopted in preference.
The returns published by the govern-
ment in 1813 make the population of an-
cient France 28,786,911, which, compared
with 28,000,000, the estimated population
of the year IX., shew an increase of about
800,000 in the 11 years, from 1802 to 1813.
No returns of marriages are given, and
the returns of births and deaths are given
only for fifty departments.
In these fifty departments, during the ten
years beginning with 1802 and ending with
1811, the whole number of births amounted
to 5,478,669, and of deaths to 4,696,857,
which, on a population of 16,710,719, indi-
cates a proportion of births as 1 in 30i, and
of deaths as 1 in o5\.
It is natural to suppose that these fifty de-
partments were chosen on account of their
shewing the greatest increase. They con-
tain indeed nearly the whole increase that
had taken place in all the departments from
the time of the enumeration in the year IX.;
and
Ch. vij. ifi France (continued). 35
and consequently the population of the
other departments must have been almost
stationary. It may further be reasonably
conjectured that the returns of marriages
were not published on account of their be-
ing considered as unsatisfactory, and shew-
ing a diminution of marriages, and an in-
creased proportion of illegitimate births.
From these returns, and the circum-
stances accompanying them, it may be con-
cluded, that whatever might have been the
real proportion of births before the revolu-
tion, and for the six or seven subsequent
years, when the manages prematurh are al-
luded to in the Proces Verbaux, and propor-
tions of births as 1 in 21, 22, and 23, are
mentioned in the Statistique Generale, the
proportions of births, deaths, and mar-
riages, are now all considerably less than
they were formerly supposed to be*. j.
* In the year 1792 a law was passed extremely favour-
able to early marriages. This was repealed in the year
XL, and a law substituted which threw great obstacles in
the way of marriage, according to Pcuchet (p. '234).
These two laws will assist in accounting for a small pro-
portion of births and marriages in the ten years previous
to 1813, consistently with ihe possibility of a large pro-
£) 2 portion
36 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
It has been asked, whether if this fact be
allowed, it does not clearly follow that the
population was incorrectly estimated before
the revolution, and that it has been dimi-
nished rather than increased since 1792?
To this question I should distinctly answer,
that it does not follow. It has been seen, in
many of the preceding chapters, that the
proportions of births, deaths, and marriages,
are extremely different in different coun-
tries, and there is the strongest reason for
believing that they are very different in the
same country at different periods, and under
different circumstances.
That changes of this kind have taken
place in Switzerland has appeared to be al-
most certain. A similar effect from in-
creased healthiness in our own country may
be considered as an established fact. And
if we give any credit to the best authorities
that can be collected on the subject, it can
scarcely be doubted that the rate of morta-
lity has diminished, during the last one or
two hundred years, in almost every country
portiDn in the first six or seven years after the commence-
ent pf the revolution.
in
Ch. vii. in France [continued). 37
in Europe. There is nothing therefore that
ought to surprise us in the mere fact of the
same population being kept up, or even a
decided increase taking place, under a
smaller proportion of births, deaths, and
marriages. And the only question is, whe-
ther the actual circumstances of France
seem to render such a change probable.
Now it is generally agreed that the con-
dition of the lower classes of people in
France before the revolution was very
wretched. The wages of labour were about
20 sous, or ten pence a day, at a time when
the wages of labour in England were nearly
seventeen pence, and the price of wheat of
the same quality in the two countries was
not very different. Accordingly Arthur
Young represents the labouring classes of
France, just at the commencement of the re-
volution, as " 76 per cent, worse fed, worse
clothed, and worse supported, both in
sickness and health, than the same classes in
Ensfland \'' And though thi^ statement is
perhaps rather too strong, and sufficient
» Young's Travels in France, vol. L p. 437-
allowance
38 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
allowance is not made for the real difference
of prices, yet his work every where abounds
with observations which shew the depressed
condition of the labouring classes in France
at that time, and imply the pressure of the
population very hard against the limits of
subsistence.
On the other hand, it is universally al-
lowed that the condition of the French pea-
santry has been decidedly improved by the
revolution and the division of the national
domains. All the writers who advert to the
subject notice a considerable rise in the
price of labour, partly occasioned by the
extension of cultivation, and partly by the
demands of the army. In the Statistique
Elementaire of Peuchet, common labour is
stated to have risen from 20 to 30 sous%
while the price of provisions appears to have
remained nearly the same; and Mr. Bir-
beck, in his late Agricultural Tour in
France ^ says that the price of labour with-
out board is twenty /'ez/ce a day, and that pro-
visions of all kinds are full as cheap again as
in England. This would give the French
»P. 391. "P. 13.
labourer
Ch. vii. in France (continued). 39
labourer tlie same command of subsistence
as an English labourer would have with three
shillings and four pence a day. But at no
time were the wages of common day-labour
in England so high as three shillings and
four pence.
Allowing for some errors in these state-
ments, they are evidently sufficient to esta-
blish a very marked improvement in the con-
dition of the lower classes of people in
France. But it is next to a physical im-
possibility that such a relief from the pres-
sure of distress should take place without a
diminution in the rate of mortality; and if
this diminution in the rate of mortality has
not been accompanied by a rapid increase
of population, it nmst necessarily have been
accompanied by a smaller proportion of
births. In the interval between 1802 and
1813 the population seems to have increased,
but to have increased slowly. Consequent-
ly a smaller proportion of births, dcatlis,
and marriages, or the more general opera-
tion of prudential restraint, is exactly what
the circumstances would have led us to ex-
pect. There is perhaps no proposition
nion^
40 Of the Checks to Population Bk.ii,
more incontrovertible than this, that, in two
countries, in which the rate of increase, the
natural healthiness of climate, and the state
of towns and manufactures are supposed to
be nearly the same, the one in which the
pressure of poverty is the greatest will have
the greatest proportion of births, deaths,
and marriages.
It does not then by any means follow, as
has been supposed, that because since
1802 the proportion of births in France has
been as 1 in 30, Necker ought to have used
30 as his multiplier instead of 2 5 J. If the
representations given of the state of the la-
bouring classes in France before and since
the revolution be -in any degree near the
truth, as the march of the population in
both periods seems to have been nearly the
same, the present proportion of births could
not have been applicable at the period when
Necker wrote. At the same time it is by no
means improbable that he took too low a
multiplier. It is hardly credible under all
circumstances that the population of France
should have increased in the interval between
1785 and 1802 so much as from 25i millions
to
Cli. vii. i/i France {continued). 41
to 28. But if wc allow that the inultiplier
might at that time have been 27 instead of
2oJ, it will be allowing as much as is in any
degree probable, and yd this will imply an
increase of nearly two millions from 1783
to 1813; an increase far short of the rate
that has taken place in England, but still
sufficient amply to shew the force of the
principle of population in overcoming ob-
stacles apparently the most powerful.
With regard to the question of the in-
crease of births in the six or seven fust years
after the commencement of the revolution,
there is no probability of its ever being de-
termined.
In the confusion of the times, it is scarce-
ly possible to suppose that the registers
should have been regularly kept; and as
they were not collected in the year IX., tlu:re
is no chance of their being brought forward
in a correct state at a subsequent period.
CHAP.
( 42 )
CHAP. VIII.
Of the Checks to Population in England.
1 HE most cursory view of society in this
country must convince us, that throughout
all ranks the preventive check to population
prevails in a considerable degree. Those
among the higher classes, who live prin-
cipally in towns, often want the inclination
to marry, from the facility with which they
can indulge themselves in an illicit inter-
course with the sex. And others are de-
terred from marrying by the idea of the
expenses that they must retrench, and the
pleasures of which they must deprive them-
selves, on the supposition of having a fa-
m\\y. When the fortune is large, these
considerations are certainly trivial ; but a
preventive foresight of this kind has objects
of much greater weight for its contempla-
tion as we go lower.
A man
Ch. viii. Of the Checks to Population, SsC. 43
A man of liberal education, Avitli an in-
come only just sufficient to enable him to
associate in the rank of gentlemen, must
feel absolutely certain that, if he njarry
and have a famii}', he shall be obliged to
give up all his former connexions. The
woman, whom a man of education would
naturally make the object of his choice, is
one brought up in the same habits and
sentiments with himself, and used to the
familiar intercourse of a society totally dif-
ferent from that to which she must be re-
duced by marriage. Can a man easily
consent to place the object of his aft'cction
in a situation so discordant, probably, to
her habits and inclinations ? Two or
three steps of descent in society, particu-
larly at this round of the ladder, where
education ends and ignorance begins, will
not be considered by the generality of
people as a chimerical, but a real evil. If
society be desirable, it surely must be
free, equal and reciprocal society, where
benefits are conferred as well as received,
and not such as the de|)eii(hMit finds with
his patron, or the poor with the rich.
These
44 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
These considerations certainly prevent
many in this rank of life from following the
bent of their inclinations in an early at-
tachment. Others, influenced either by a
stronger passion or a weaker judgment,
disregard these considerations ; and it would
be hard, indeed, if the gratification of so
delightful a passion as virtuous love did
not sometimes more than counterbalance
all its attendant evils. But 1 fear it must
be acknowledged that the more general
consequences of such marriages are rather
calculated to justify than disappoint the
forebodings of the prudent.
The sons of tradesmen and farmers are
exhorted not to marry, and generally find
it necessary to comply with this advice, till
they are settled in some business or farm,
which may enable them to support a family.
These events may not perhaps occur till they
are far advanced in life. The scarcity of
farms is a very general complaint ; and the
competition in every kind of business is so
great, that it is not possible that all should
be successful. Among the clerks in count-
ing-houses, and the competitors for all
kinds
Ch. viii. in England. 45
kinds of mercantile and professional em-
ployment, it is probable that the pre-
ventive check to population prevails more
than in any other department of society.
The labourer who earns eighteen pence
or two shillings a day, and hves at his ease
as a single man, will hesitate a little before
he divides that pittance among four or
five, which seems to be not more than suf-
ficient for one. Harder fare and harder
labour he would perhaps be willing to sub-
mit to for the sake of living with the woman
that he loves ; but he must feel conscious,
that, should he have a large family and any
ill fortune whatever, no degree of frugality,
no possible exertion of his manual strength,
would preserve him from the heart-rending
sensation of seeing his children starve, or of
being obliged to the parish for their sup-
port. The love of independence is a senti-
ment that surely none would wish to see
eradicated ; though the poor-laws of Eng-
land, it must be confessed, arc a system of
all others the most calculated gradually to
weaken this sentiment, and in the end will
probably destroy it completely.
The
46 Of the Checks to Popiilatioti Bk. ii.
The servants who h^-e in the famihes of
the rich, have restraints yet stronger to break
through in venturing upon marriage. They
possess the necessaries, and even the com-
forts of hfe, almost in as great plenty as
their masters. Their work is easy and
their food luxurious, compared with the
work and food of the class of labourers ;
and their sense of dependence is weakened
by the conscious power of changing their
masters if they feel themselves offended.
Thus comfortably situated at present, what
are their prospects if they marry ? Without
knowledge or capital, either for business
or farming, and unused and therefore un-
able to earn a subsistence by daily labour,
their only refuge seems to be a miserable
alehouse, which certainly offers no very en-
chanting prospect of a happy evening to
their lives. The greater number of them,
therefore, deterred by this uninviting view
of their future situation, content themselves
with remaining single where they are.
If this sketch of the state of society in
England be near the truth, it will be al-
lowed that the preventive check to po-
pulation
Ch. viii. in England. 47
pulatioii operates with considerable force
throughout all the classes of the community.
And this observation is further confirmed by
the abstracts from the reojisters returned in
1800 in consequence of the Population Act.
The results of these abstracts shew, that
the annual marriages in England and
Wales are to the whole population as 1 to
123^^% a smaller proportion of marriages
than is to be found in any of the countries
which have been examined, except Norway
and Switzerland.
' Observ. on the Results of the Population Act, p. 1 1,
piinted in 1 800. The answers to tlie Population Act have at
length happily rescued the question of the population of this
country from the obscurity in which it had been so long in-
volved, and have afforded some very valuable data to the po-
litical calculator. At the same time it must be confessed
that they are not so complete as entirely to exclude reason-
ings and conjectures respecting the inferences which are to
be drawn from them. It is earnestly to be hoped that the
subject may not be suflfered to drop after the present
effort. Now that the first difficulty is removed, an enu-
meration every ten years might be rendered easy and fa-
miliar ; and the registers of births, deaths and marriages
might be received every year, or at least every five years.
1 am persuaded, that more inferences are to be drawn
respecting the internal state of a country from such re-
gisters than we have yet been in the habit of supposing.
In
48 Of the Checks to Popidatmi Bk. ii.
In the earlier part of the last century,
Dr. Short estmiated this proportion at about
1 to 115*. It is probable that this calcu-
lation was then correct ; and the present
diminution in the proportion of marriages,
notwithstanding an increase of population
more rapid than formerly, owing to the
more rapid progress of commerce and agri-
culture, is partly a cause, and partly a
consequence, of the diminished mortality
observed of late years.
The returns of the marriages, pursuant
to the late act, are supposed to be less liable
to the suspicion of inaccuracy than an\^
other parts of the registers.
Dr. Short, in his l^ew Observations on
Town and Country Bills of Mortality, says,
he will " conclude with the observation of
" an eminent Judge of this nation, that
" the growth and increase of mankind is
" more stinted from the cautious difficulty
" people make to enter on marriage, from
" the prospect of the trouble and expenses
" in providing for a family, than from any
" thing in the nature of the species." And,
• New Observ. on Bills of Mortality, p. 265. 8vo. 1750.
in
Ch. viii. i?i E?igland. 49
in conformity to this idea, Dr. Short pro-
poses to lay heavy taxes and fines on those
who hve single, for the support of the
married poor *.
The observation of the eminent Judge is,
with regard to the numbers which are pre-
vented from being boni, perfectly just;
but the inference, that the unmarried ought
to be punished, does not appear to be
equally so. The prolific power of nature
is ver}^ far indeed from being called fully
into action in this countr}^ And yet
when we contemplate the insufficiency of
the price of labour to maintain a large
family, and the amount of mortality which
arises directly and indirectly from poverty;
and add to this the crowds of children,
which are cut off prematurely in our great
towns, our manufactories and our work-
houses ; we shall be compelled to acknow-
ledge, that, if the number born annually
were not greatly thinned by this premature
mortality, the funds for the maintenance
of labour must increase with much greater
rapidity than they have ever done hitherto
» New Observ. on Bills of Mortality, p. 247- 8vo. 1750.
VOL- II. E in
50 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
in this country, in order to find work and
food for the additional numbers that would
then grow up to manhood.
Those, therefore, who live single, or
marry late, do not by such conduct con-
tribute in any degree to diminish the actual
population ; but merely to diminish the
proportion of premature mortality, which
would otherwise be excessive ; and conse-
quently in this point of view do not seem to
deserve any very severe reprobation or
punishment.
The returns of the births and deaths are
supposed, on good grounds, to be deficient ;
and it will therefore be difficult to estimate,
with any degree of accuracy, the propor-
tion which they bear to the whole popu-
lation.
If we divide the existing population of
England and Wales by the average of
burials for the five years ending in 1800, it
would appear, that the mortality was only
1 in 49 ^ ; but this is a proportion so ex-
* The population is takeu at 9,168,000, and the an-
nual deaths at 186,000. (Obs. on the Results of Pop. Act.
p. 6 and 9-)
traordinarily
CJi. viii. in England. 61
traordinarily small, considering the number
of our great towns and manufactories, that
it cannot be considered as approaching to
the trutli.
Whatever may be the exact proportion
of the inhabitants of the towns to the inha-
bitants of the country, the soutliern part of
tiiis island certainly ranks in that class of
states, where this proportion is greater than
1 to 3 ; indeed there is ample reason to
believe, that it is greater than 1 to 2. Ac-
cording to the rule laid down by Crome,
the mortality ought consequently to be
above 1 in 30 ^ ; according to Sussmilch,
above 1 in SS ^. In the Observations on the
Results of the Popidation Act % many pro-
bable causes of deficiency in the registry of
the burials are pointed out ; but no calcu-
lation is offered respecting the sum of these
deficiencies, and I have no data whatever
to supply such a calculation. I will only
observe, therefore, that if we suppose them
• Ueber die Beviilkerung der Europaisclien Staater,
p. 127.
^ Sussmilch, Gottliche Ordnuu», vol. iii. p. 60.
* P. 6.
E 2 altogether
S2 Of the Checks to Population Bk.ii.
altogether to amount to such a number as
will make the present annual mortality
about 1 in 40, this must appear to be the
lowest proportion of deaths that can well be
supposed, considering the circumstances of
the country ; and, if true, would indicate a
most astonishing superiority over the gene-
rality of other states, either in the habits of
the people with respect to prudence and
cleanliness, or in natural healthiness of
situation \ Indeed, it seems to be nearly
ascertained that both these causes, which
tend to diminish mortality, operate in this
country to a considerable degree. The
* It is by no means surprising, that our population
should have been underrated formerly, at least by any
person who attempted to estimate it from the proportion
of births or deaths. Till the late Population Act no one
-could have imagined that the actual returns of annual
deaths, which might naturally have been expected to be
as accurate in this country as in others, would turn out
to be less than a 49th part of the population. If the
actual returns for France, even so long ago as the ten years
ending with 1780, had been multiplied by 49, she would
have appeared at that time to have a population of above
40 millions. The average of annual deaths was 818,491.
Necker de I'Administration des Finances, torn, i. c. ix.
p. 255. 12mo. 1785.
• small
Ch. viii. i?i Eti gland. 53
small proportion of annual marriages be-
fore mentioned indicates that habits of
prudence, extremely favourable to happi-
ness, prevail through a large part of the
community, in spite of the poor-laws ; and
it appears from the clearest evidence, that
the generality of our country parishes are
very healthy. Dr. Price quotes an accountof
Dr. Percival, collected from the ministers of
different parishes and taken from positive
enumerations, according to which, in some
villages, only a 45th, a 50tli, a 60tli, a 6"6th,
and even a 75th, part dies annually. In
many of these parishes the births are to the
deaths above 2 to 1, and in a siugle parish
above 3 to l"". These however are parti-
cular instances, and cannot be applied to
the agricultural part of the country in ge-
neral. In some of the flat situations, and
particularly those near marshes, the pro-
* Price's Observ. on Revers. Piiym. vol. ii. note, p. 10.
First additional Essay, 4th edit. In particular parishes,
private communications are perhaps more to be depended
upon than pubHc returns ,• because in general those
clergymen only are applied to, who are in some degree
interested in the subject, and of course take more pains
to be accurate.
portions
64 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
portions are found very different, and in a
few the deaths exceed the births. In the
54 country parishes, the registers of which
Dr. Short collected, choosing them pur-
posely in a great variety of situations, the
average mortality was as high as 1 in 37 *•
This is certainly much above the present
mortality of our agricultural parishes in
general. The period which Dr. Short took,
included some considerable epidemics,
which may possibly have been above the
usual proportion. But sickly seasons should
always be included, or we shall fall into
great errors. In 1056 villages of Branden^
burgh, which Sussmilch examined, the
mortality for six good years was 1 in 43 ;
for 10 mixed years about 1 in 381 ^, In
the villages of England which Sir F. M.
Eden mentions, the mortality seems to be
about 1 in 47 or 48 "^ ; and in the late re-
turns pursuant to the Population Act, a still
greater degree of healthiness appears. Com-
* New Observations on Bills of Mortality, table ix.
p. 133.
•» Gbttliche Ordnung, vol. i. c. ii. s. xxi. p. 74.
* Estimate of the Number of Inhabitants in G. Britain.
bining
Cli. viii. in England. 55
bining these observations together, if we
take 1 in 46 or 1 in 48, as the average
mortalit}^ of the agricultural part of the
country, including sickly seasons, this will
be the lowest that can be supposed with
any degree of probability. But this pro-
portion will certainly be raised to 1 in 40,
when we blend it with the mortality of the
towns and the manufacturing part of the
community, in order to obtain the average
for the whole kingdom.
The mortality in London, which includes
so considerable a part of the inhabitants of
this country, was, according to Dr. Price,
at the time he made his calculations, 1 in
20f ; in Norwich 1 in 241 ; in Northampton
1 in 26 J ; in Newbury 1 in 27^ * ; in Man-
chester 1 in 28; in Liverpool 1 in 273 ^ ^^^
He observes that the number dying an-
nually in towns is seldom so low as 1 in 28,
except in consecpience of a rapid increase
produced by an influx of people at those
periods of life when the fewest die, which is
" Price's Observ. on Revers. Payin. vol. i. note, p. 272.
'• Id. vol. ii. First addilionul Essay, note, p. 4.
the
56 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ft
the case with Manchester and Liverpool %
and other very flourishing manufacturing
tow^ns. In general he thinks that the mor-
tality in great towns may be stated at from
1 in 19^ to 1 in 22 and 23 ; in moderate
towns, from 1 in 24 to 1 in 28 ; and in the
country villages, from 1 in 40 to 1 in 50 ^
The tendency of Dr. Price to exaggerate
the unhealthiness of towns may perhaps be
objected to these statements ; but the ob-
jection seems to be only of weight w^ith
regard to London. The accounts from the
other towns, which are given, are from do-
cuments which his particular opinions could
not influence**. It should be remarked,
however,
* Price's Observ. on Revers. Paym. vol. ii. First ad-
ditional Essay, note, p. 4.
'' The mortality at Stockholm was, according to War-
gentin, 1 in 19.
' Observ. on Revers. Paym. vol. ii. First additional
Essay, p. 4.
•* An estimate of the population or mortality of Lon-
don, before the late enumeration, always depended much
on conjecture and opinion, on account of the great ac-
knowledged deficiencies in the registers ; but this was not
the case in the same degree with the other towns here
named. Dr. Price, in allusion to a diminishing popu-
lation,
Cli. viii. in England. 67
liowever, that there is good reason to
beheve, that not only London, but the
other towns in England, and probably also
country villages, >vere at the time of these
calculations less healthy than at present.
Dr. William Heberden observes, that the
registers of the ten years from 1759 to 1768%
from which Dr. Price calculated the pro-
babilities of life in London, indicate a
much greater degree of unhealthiness than
the registers of late years. And the returns
pursuant to the Population Act, even after
allowing for great omissions in the burials,
exhibit in all our provincial towns, and in
the country, a degree of healthiness much
greater than had before been calculated.
At the same time I cannot but think that
1 in 31, the proportion of mortality for
London mentioned in the Observations on
the Results of the Population Act ^, is smaller
latioii, on which subject it appears that he lias so widely
erred, says very candidly, that perhaps he may have
been insensibly influenced to maintain an opinion once
advanced.
■ Increase and Decrease of Diseases, p. 3C, 4to. 1801.
^ P. 13.
than
58 Of the Checks to Popiilatmi Bk. ii.
than the truth. Five thousand are not pro-
bably enough to allow for the omissions in
the burials ; and the absentees in the em-
ployments of war and commerce are not
sufficiently adverted to. In estimating the
proportional mortality the resident popula-
tion alone should be considered.
There certainly seems to be something in
great towns, and even in moderate towns,
peculiarly unfavourable to the very early
stages of life ; and the part of the commu-
nity, on which the mortality principall}^ falls,
seems to indicate that it arises more from
the closeness and foulness of the air, which
may be supposed to be unfavourable to the
tender lungs of children, and the greater
confinement which they almost necessarily
experience, than from the superior degree
of luxury and debauchery usually and
justly attributed to towns. A married pair
with the best constitutions, who lead the
most regular and quiet life, seldom find
that their children enjoy the same health in
towns as in the country.
In London, according to former calcula-
tions, one half of the bom died under three
years
Cli. viii. in Etis:la7id. 59
years of age ; in Vienna and Stockholm
under two ; in Manchester under five ; in
Norwich under five ; in Northampton un-
der ten \ In country villages, on the con-
trary, half of the born live till thirty, thirty-
five, forty, forty-six, and above. In the
parish of Ackworth, in Yorkshire, it appears
from a very exact account kept by Dr. Lee
of the ages at which all died there for 20
years, that half of the inhabitants live to the
age of 46^; and there is little doubt, that,
if the same kind of account had been kept
in some of those parishes before mentioned,
in which the mortality is so small as 1 in
60, 1 in 66, and even 1 in 75, half of the
born would be found to have lived to 50
or 55.
As the calculations respecting the ages
to which half of the born live in towns de-
pend more upon the births and deaths
which appear in the registers, than upon any
estimates of the number of people, they
are on this account less liable to uncer-
• Price's Observ. on Revers. Paym. vol. i. p. 264—
Q66. 4th edit.
" Id. vol. i. p. 268.
tainty,
60 Of the Checks to Population Bk.ii.
taintj, than the calculations respecting the
proportion of the inhabitants of any place
which dies annually.
To fill up the void occasioned by this
mortality in towns, and to answer all fur-
ther demands for population, it is evident
that a constant supply of recruits from the
country is necessary ; and this supply ap-
pears in fact to be always flowing in from
the redundant births of the country. Even
in those towns where the births exceed the
deaths, this effect is produced by the
mamages of persons not born in the place.
At a time when our provincial towns were
increasing much less rapidly than at pre-
sent, Dr. Short calculated that yV of the
married were strangers ^. Of 16 18 married
men, and I6l8 married women, examined
at the Westminster Infirmary, only 329 of
the men and 495 of the women had been
born in London ^.
Dr. Price supposes that London with its
neighbouiing parishes, where the deaths ex-
ceed the births, requires a supply of 10,000
' New Observations on Bills of Mortality, p. 76.
'' Price's Observ. on Revers. Paym. vol. ii. p. I7.
persons
Ch. viii. in England, 61
persons annuall3\ Graunt, in liis time,
estimated this snpply for London alone at
6000" ; and he further observes, that, let the
mortality of the city be what it will, arising
from plaoue, or any other great cause of
destruction, it always fully repairs its loss
in two years ^.
As all these demands, therefore, are sup-
plied from the country, it is evident that
Ave should fall into a very great error, if
we were to estimate the proportion of births
to deaths for the whole kingdom by the
proportion observed in country parishes,
from which there must be such numerous
emigrations.
We need not, however, accompany
Dr. Price in his apprehensions that the
country will be depopulated by these emi-
grations, at least as long as the funds for
the maintenance of ao;ricultural labour re-
main unimpaired. The proportion of births,
as well as the proportion of marriages,
clearly proves, that, in spite of our in-
creasing towns and manufactories, the de-
' Short's New Observ. Abstract from Graunt, p. 277-
^ Id. p. 27«.
Ill and
62 Of the Checks to Population Bk.ii.
mand on the country for people is by no
means very pressing.
If we divide the present population of
England and Wales by the average number
of baptisms for the last five years % it will
appear, that the baptisms are to the popu-
lation as 1 to very nearly 36 ^ ; but it is sup-
posed, .with reason, that there are great
omissions in the baptisms, and that these
omissions are greater than in the burials.
Dr. Short estimated the proportion of
births to the population of England as 1
to 28 ^ In the agricultural report of Suf-
folk, the proportion of births to the popu-
lation was calculated at 1 to 30. For the
whole of Suffolk, according to the late re-
turns, this proportion is not much less than
1 to SS **. According to a correct account
of
' This was written before the omitted returns were
added in 1810. These additions make the births in 1800
amount to 263,000, instead of 255,426, and increase the
proportion of registered births to 1 in 35. — See the next
chapter.
^ Average medium of baptisms for the last five years
§55,426. Pop. 9,198,000. (Observ. on Results, p. 9-)
• New Observ. p. 267.
* In private inquiries, dissenters and those who do not
christen
Ch. viii. in England. 6S
of thirteen villages from actual enumera-
tions, produced by Sir F. M. Eden, the pro-
portion of births to the population was as 1
to33; and according to another account on
the same authority, taken from towns and
manufacturing parishes, as 1 to 27J *. If,
combining all these circumstances, and
adverthig at the same time to the acknow-
ledged deficiency in the registry of births,
and the known increase of our population
of late years, we suppose the true propor-
tion of the births to the population to be
as 1 to 30 ; then assuming the present mor-
tality to be 1 in 40, as before suggested,
we shall nearly keep the proportion of bap-
tisms to burials, which appears in the late
returns. The births will be to the deaths
as 4 to 3 or 131^ to 10, a proportion more
than sufficient to account for the increase
christen their children, will not of course be reckoned in
the population ; consequently such inquiries, as far as
they extend, will more accurately express the true pro-
portion of births ; and we are fairly justified in making
use of them, in order to estimate the acknowledged defi-
ciency of births in the public returns.
* Estimate of the Number of Inhabitants in Great Bri-
tain, &c. p. 27.
of
64 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
of population which has taken place since
the American war, after allowing for those
who may be supposed to have died abroad.
In the Observations on the Results of the
Population Act it is remarked that the
average duration of life in England appears
to have increased in the proportion of 117
to 100% since the 3'ear 1780. So great a
change, in so short a time, if true, would
be a most striking phenomenon. But I
am inclined to suspect that the whole of
this proportional diminution of burials does
not arise from increased healthiness, but is
occasioned, in part, by the greater number
of deaths which must necessarily have taken
place abroad, owing to the very rapid in-
crease of our foreign commerce since this
period; and to the great number of persons
absent on naval and military employments,
and the constant supply of fresh recruits
necessary to maintain undiminished so
great a force. A perpetual drain of this
kind would certainly have a tendency to
produce the effect observed in the returns,
and might keep the burials stationary, while
» P. 6.
the
Ch. viii. in England. 65
the l)irths and marriages were increasing
with some rapidity. At the same time, as
the increase of population since 1780 is
incontrovertible, and the present mortality
extraordinarily small, I should still be dis-
posed to believe, that much the greater part
of the effect is to be attributed to increased
healthiness.
A mortality of 1 in S6 is perhaps too
small a proportion of deaths for the average
of the whole century ; but a proportion of
births to deaths as 12 to 10, calculated on
a mortality of 1 in 36, would double the
population of a country in 125 years, and
is therefore as great a proportion of births
to deaths as can be true for the average
of the whole century. None of the late
calculations imply a more rapid increase
than this.
We must not suppose, however, that this
proportion of births to deaths, or any as-
sumed proportion of births and deaths to
the whole population, has continued nearly
uniform throughout the century. It appears
from the registers of every country which
have been kept for any length of time, that
VOL. II, Y considerable
66 Of the Checks to Population Bk. h.
considerable variations occur at different
periods. Dr. Short, about the middle of
the century, estimated the proportion of
births to deaths as 11 to 10*; and if the
births were at the same time a twenty-eighth
part of the population, the mortality was
tlien as high as 1 in 30^. We now suppose
that the proportion of births to deaths is
above 13 to 10; but if we were to assume
this proportion as a criterion by which to esti-
mate the increase of population for the next
thirty or forty years, we should probabl^^
fall into a very gross error. The effects of
the late scarcities are strongly marked in
the returns of the Population Act hy di de-
crease of births and an increase of burials ;
and should such seasons frequently recur,
they would soon destroy the great excess of
births which has been observed during the
last twenty years ; and indeed we cannot
reasonably suppose that the resources of
this country should increase for any long
continuance with such rapidity as to allow
of a permanent proportion of births to
• New Observ. tables ii. and iii. p, 22 and 44; Price's
Observ. on Revers. Paym. vol. ii. p. 31 1.
deaths
Ch. viii. 271 England. QT
deaths as 13 to 10, unless indeed this ])ro-
portion were principally caused hy great
foreign drains.
From all the data that could be collected,
the proportion of births to the whole popu-
lation of England and ^V^ales has been as-
sumed to be as 1 to 30; but this is a smaller
proportion of births than has appeared
in the course of this review to take place in
any other country exceptNorwayand Swit-
zerland; and it has been hitherto usual with
political calculators, to consider a great
proportion of births as the surest sign of a
vigorous and flourishing state. It is to be
hoped, however, that this prejudice will not
last long. In countries circumstanced like
America or Russia, or in other countries
after any great mortality, a large proportion
of births is a favourable symptom; but
in the average state of a well-peopled
territory there cannot well l)e a worse sign
than a large proportion of births, nor can
there well be a better sign than a small pro-
portion.
Sir Francis d'lvernois very justly ob-
serves, that, " if the various states of Eu-
F 2 '* rope
68 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
" rope kept and published annually an
" exact account of their population, noting
" carefully in a second column the exact
" age at which the children die, this second
" column would shew the relative merit of
" the governments, and the comparative
" happiness of their subjects. A simple
" arithmetical statement would then per-
" haps be more conclusive than all the ar-
" guments that could be adduced V In
the importance of the inferences to be drawn
from such tables, I fully agree with him;
and to make these inferences, it is evident,
that we should attend less to the column ex-
pressing the number of children born, than
to the column expressing the number which
survived the age of infancy and reached
manhood; and this number will almost in-
variably be the greatest, where the propor-
tion of the births to the whole population is
the least. In this point, we rank next after
Norway and Switzerland, which, consider-
ing the number of our great towns and ma-
nufactories, is certainly a very extraordi-
nary fact. As nothing can be more clear,
* Tableau des Pertes, &.c. c. ii. p. l6.
than
Ch. viii. in England. ^
than that all our demands tor i)opulation
are fully sup[)liecl, if this be done with a
small proportion of births, it is a decided
proof of a very small mortality, a distinc-
tion on which we may justly pride ourselves.
Should it appear fiom future investigations
that 1 have made too great an allowance for
omissions both in the births and m the bu-
rials, 1 shall be extremely happy to find
that this distinction, which, other circum-
stances being the same, I consider as the
surest test of happiness and good govern-
ment, is even greater than I have supposed
it to be. In despotic, miserable, or natu-
rally unhealthy countries, the proportion of
births to the whole population will generally
be found very great.
On an average of the five years ending in
1800 the proportion of births to marriages
is 347 to 100. In 1760 it was 362 to 100,
from which an inference is drawn, that tlic
registers of births, however deficient, were
certainly not more deficient formerly than at
present*. But a change of this nature, in
the appearance of the registers, nfight arise
' Observ. on Uie Results of the Population Act, p. 8.
fron\
"70 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii,
from causes totally unconnected with defi-
ciencies. If from the acknowledged greater
healthiness of the latter part of the century,
compared with the middle of it, a greater
number of children survived the age of in-
fancy, a greater proportion of +he born
would of course live to marry, and this cir-
cumstance would produce a greater present
proportion of marriages compared with the
births. On the other hand, if the marriages
were rather more prolific formerly than at
present, owing to their being contracted at
an earlier age, the effect would be a greater
proportion of births compared with the
marriages. The operation of either or both
of these causes would produce exactly the
effect observed in the registers : and conse-
quently from the existence of such an effect
no inference can justly be drawn against the
supposed increasing accuracy of the regis-
ters. The influence of the two cases just
mentioned on the proportions of annual
births to marriages will be explained in a
subsequent chapter.
With regard to the general question,
whether we have just grounds for supposing
that
Ch. viii. in England. 71
that the registry of births and deaths was
more deficient in the former part of the cen-
tury than in the latter part ; I should say,
that the late returns tend to confirm the
suspicion of former inaccuracy, and to
shew that the registers of the earlier part of
the century, in every point of view, afford
very uncertain data on which to ground any
estimates of past population. In the years
1710, 1720, and 1730, it appears from the
returns that the deaths exceeded the births ;
and taking the six periods ending in 1750*,
including the first half of the century, if we
compare the sum of the births with the sum
of the deaths, the excess of the births is so
small, as to be perfectly inadequate to ac-
count for the increase of a million, which,
upon a calculation from the births alone, is
supposed to have taken place in that time*".
Consequently, either the registers are very
inaccurate, and the deficiencies in the births
greater than in the deaths; or these periods,
each at the distance often years, do not ex-
* Population Abstracts, Parish Registers. Final sum-
mary, p. 455.
'* Observ. on the Results of the Population Act, p. 9-
press
72 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
press the just average. These particular
years may have been more unfavourable
with respect to the proportion of births to
deaths than the rest ; indeed one of them,
1710, is known to have been a year of great
scarcity and distress. But if this suspicion,
which is very probable, be admitted, so as
to affect the six first periods, we may justly
suspect the contrary accident to have hap-
pened with regard to tlie three following pe-
riods ending with 1780; in which thirty
years it would seem, by the same mode of
calculation, that an increase of a milhon and
a half had taken place ^. At any rate it
must be allowed, that the three separate
years, taken in this manner, can by no
means be considered as sufficient to esta-
blish a just average ; and what rather encou-
rages the suspicion, that these particular
years might be more than usually favour-
able with regard to births is, that the in-
crease of births Irom 1780 to 1785 is un-
usually small'', which would naturally be
* Observ, on the Results of the Population Act, p. 9-
*> Ibid,
the
Ch. viii. in England. 73
the case without supposing a slower pro-
gress than before, it' the births in 1780 had
been accidentally above the average.
On the whole, therefore, considering the
probal)le inaccuracy of the earlier registers,
and the very great danger of fallacy in
drawing general inferences from a few de-
tached years, 1 do not think that we can
depend upon an}^ estimates of past popula-
tion, founded on a calculation from the
births, till after the year 1780, when every
following year is given, and a just average
of the births may be obtained. As a fur-
ther confirmation of this remark I will just
observe, that in the final summary of the
abstracts from the registers of England and
Wales it appears, that in the year 1790 the
total number of birtlis was 248,774, in the
year 179o, 247,218, and in 1800, 247,147".
Consequently if we had been estimating the
population from the births, taken at three
separate periods of five years, it would have
appeared, that the population during the
last ten years had been regularly decreasing,
• Population Abstracts, Parish Registers, p. 453.
though
74 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
though we have very good reason to beheve,
that it has increased considerably.
In the Observations on the Results of' the
Population Act^, sl table is given of the po-
pulation of England and Wales throughout
the last century calculated from the births;
but for the reasons given above, little reli-
ance can be placed on it ; and for the po-
pulation at the revolution, I should be in-
clined to place more dependence on the old
calculations from the number of houses.
It is possible, indeed, though not pro-
bable, that these estimates of the popula-
tion at the different periods of the century
may not be very far from the truth, be-
cause opposite errors may have corrected
each other ; but the assumption of the uni-
form proportion of births on which they are
founded is false on the face of the calcula-
tions themselves. According to these cal-
culations, the increase of population was
more rapid in the period from I76O to 1780,
than from 1780 to 1800; 3'et it appears,
that the proportion of deaths about the year
1780 was greater than in 1800 in the ratio
of
Ch. viii. ill England. 75
of 117 to 100. Consequently the propor-
tion of births before 1780 must have been
niueh greater than in 1800, or til(^ popula-
tion in that period could not possibly have
increased faster. This overthrows at once
the supposition of any thing like uniformity
in the proportion of births.
I should indeed have supposed from the
analogy of other countries, and the calcu-
lations of Mr. King and Dr. Short, that
the proportion of births at the beginning
and in the middle of the century was greater
than at the end. But this supposition would,
in a calculation from the births, give a smaller
population in the early part of the century
than is given in the Results of the Fopulat'ion
Act, though there are strong reasons for
supposing that the population there given
is too small. According to Davenant, the
number of houses in 16*90 was 1,319,215,
and there is no reason to think that this
calculation erred on the side of excess. Al-
lowing only five to a house instead of 5^,
which is supposed to be the proportion at
present, this Avould give a population of
above six millions and a half, and it is per-
fectly
76 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
fectly incredible, that from this time to the
year 1710, the population should have di-
minished nearly a million and a half. It is
far more probable that the omissions in the
births should have been much greater than
at present, and greater than in the deaths ;
and this is further confirmed by the obser-
vation before alluded to, that in the first half
of the century the increase of population, as
calculated from the births, is much great-
er than is warranted by the proportion of
births to deaths. In every point of view,
therefore, the calculations from the births
are little to be depended on.
It must indeed have appeared to the read-
er, in the com'se of this work, that registers
of births or deaths, excluding any suspicion
of deficiencies, must at all times afibrd very
uncertain data for an estimate of popula-
tion. On account of the varying circum-
stances of every country, they are both pre-
carious guides. From the greater apparent
regularit}^ of the births, political calculators
have generally adopted them as the ground
of their estimates in preference to the deaths.
Necker, in estimating the population of
France,
Ch. viii. in England. 77
France, observes, that an epidetnic disease,
or an emigration, may occasion temporary
differences in tiie deaths, and that therefore
the number of births is the most certain
criterion ''. But the very circumstance of
the apparent regularity of the births in the
registers will now and then lead into great
errors. If in any country we can obtain
registers of burials for two or three years
together, a plague or mortal epidemic will
always shew itself, from the very sudden
increase of the deaths during its operation,
and the still greater diminution of them af-
terwards. From these appearances, we
should of course be directed, not to include
the whole of a great mortalil}^ in any very
short term of years. But there would be
nothing: of this kind to ouide us in the
registers of births; and after a country
had lost an eighth part of its population by
a plague, an average of the five or six sub-
sequent years might shew an increase in the
number of births, and our calculations
would give the population the highest at the
* De rAdministration des Finances, torn. i. c. ix. p. 252.
12mo. 1785.
verv
78 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
very time that it was the lowest. This ap-
pears very strikingly in many of Suss-
milch^s tables, and most particularly in a
table for Prussia and Lithuania, which I
shall insert in a following chapter ; where,
in the year subsequent to the loss of one
third of the population, the births were
considerably increased, and in an average
of five years but very little diminished ; and
this at a time when, of course, the country
could have made but a very small progress
towards recovering its former population.
We do not know indeed of any extraor-
dinary mortality which has occurred in Eng-
land since 1700 ; and there are reasons for
supposing that the proportions of the births
and deaths to the population during the
last century have not experienced such
great variations as in many countries on the
continent; at the same time it is certain
that the sickly seasons which are known to
have occurred, would, in proportion to the
degree of their fatality, produce similar ef-
fects ; and the change which has been ob-
served in the mortality of late years, should
dispose us to believe, that similar changes
might
Ch. viii. iw Eiigland. 79
might formerly have taken place respecting
the births, and should instruct us to he ex-
tremely cautious in applying the propor-
tions, which are observed to be true at pre-
sent, to past or future periods.
CHAP.
( 80 )
CHAP. IX.
Of the Checks to Population in England (continued).
1 HE returns of the Population Act in
1811 undoubtedly presented extraordinary
results. They shewed a greatly accelerated
rate of progress, and a greatly improved
healthiness of the people, notwithstanding
the increase of the towns and the increased
proportion of the population engaged in
manufacturing employments. They thus
furnished another striking instance of the
readiness with which population starts
forwards, under almost any weight, when
the resources of a country are rapidly in-
creasing.
The amount of the population in 1800,
together with the proportions of births,
deaths and marriages, given in the registers,
had made it appear that the population
had been for some time increasing at a rate
rather exceeding what would result from a
proportion
Ch. ix. Of the Checks lu Population^ S^x. 81
proportion of births to deaths as 4 to 3, with
a inortahty of 1 in 40.
These proportions would add to the po-
pulation of a country every year — h^th part ;
and if they were to continue, would ac-
cording to table ii., page l68, double the
population in every successive period of
83^ years. This is a rate of progress which
in a rich and well-peopled country might
reasonably be expected to diminish rather
than to increase. But instead of any such
diminution, it appears that as far as 1810 it
liad been considerably accelerated.
In 1810, according to the returns from
each parish, w^ith the additions of -fo for the
soldiers, sailors, &c., the population of Eng-
land and Wales was estimated at 10,488,000%
Avhich compared with 9,1^8,000, the popu-
lation of 1800 estimated in a similar man-
ner, shews an increase in the ten years of
1,320,000.
Tlie registered baptisms during ten years
were 2,878,906, and the registered burials
1,950,189. The excess of the births is
^ See the Population Abstracts publislicd in 181 1, and
the valuable Preliniinarv Observations by Mr. Rickinan.
VOL. II. o therefore
82 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
therefore 928,717, which falls very consi-
derably short of the increase shewn by the
two enumerations. This deficiency could
only be occasioned either by the enumera-
tion in 1800 being below the truth, or by
the inaccuracy of the registers of births and
burials, or by the operation of these two
causes combined ; as it is obvious that, if
the population in 1800 were estimated cor-
rectly, and the registers contained all the
births and burials, the difference must ex-
ceed rather than fall short of the real addi-
tion to the population; that is, it would
exceed it exactly by the number of persons
d^dng abroad in the army, navy, &c.
There is reason to believe that both
causes had a share in producing the effect
observed, though the latter, that is, the in-
accuracy of the registers, in much the
greatest degree.
In estimating the population throughout
the century % the births have been assumed
to bear the same proportion at all times to
■ See a table of the population throughout the cen-
tury, in page xxv. of the Preliminary Observations to the
Population Abstracts, printed in 1811.
the
Ch. ix. in Efigland f continued J. 83
the luiniber of people. It has been seen
that such an assumption might otlen lead to
a very incorrect estimate of the population
of a country at different and distant periods.
As the population however is known to have
increased with great rapidity Irom 1800 to
1810, it is probable that the proportion of
births did not essentially diminish during
that period. But if, taking the last enume-
ration as correct, we compare the bnths of
1810 with the births of 1800, the result will
imply a larger population in 1800 than is
given in the enumeration for that year.
Thus the average of the last five years'
births to 1810 is 297,000, and the average
of the five years' births to 1800 is 263,000.
But 297,000 is to 2()3,000 as 10,488,000,
the population of 1810, to 9,'-^'87,000, which
must therefore have been the population in
1800 if the proportion of births be assumed
to be the same, instead of 9,168,000, the re-
sult oi" the enumeration. It is further to be
observed that the increase of population
from 1795 to 1800 is according to the table
unusually small, compared with most of the
preceding periods of five years. And a
G 2 slight
84 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii
slight inspection of the registers will shew
that the proportion of births for five years
from 1795, including the diminished num-
bers of 1796 and 1800, was more likely to
be below than above the general average.
For these reasons, together with the general
impression on the subject, it is probable
that the enumeration in 1800 was short of
the truth, and perhaps the population at
that time may be safely taken at as much
as 9,287,000 at the least, or about 119,000
greater than the returns gave it.
But even upon this supposition, neither
the excess of births above the deaths in the
whole of the ten years, nor the proportion of
births to deaths, as given in the registers,
will account for an increase from 9,287,000
to 10,488,000. Yet it is not probable that
the increase has been much less than is
shewn by the proportion of the births at
the two periods. Some allowance must
therefore necessarily be made for omissions
in the registers of births and deaths, which
are known to be very far from correct,
particularly the registers of births.
There is reason to believe that there are
few
Cli. ix. /// England ( continued), 85
few or no omissions in the register ot"ni;ir-
riages ; and if we suppose the omissions in
the births to be one-6'th, this will preserve a
proportion of the births to the marriages as
4 to 1, Ji proportion Avhich appears to
be satisfactorily established n})()n other
grounds '^ ; but if we are warranted in this
supposition, it will be fair to take the omis-
sions in the deaths at such a number as
will make the excess of the births above the
deaths in the ten years accord with tlie in-
crease of population estimated by the in-
crease of the births.
The registered births in the ten years, as
was mentioned before, are ^2,878,906, which
increased by one-6th will be 3,358,723. The
registered burials are 1,950,189, which in-
creased by one-12th will be 2,112,704. The
latter subtracted from the former will give
1,246,019 for the excess of births, and the
increase of population in the ten years,
which number added to 9,287,000, the
corrected population of 1800, will give
10,533,019, forty-five thousand above the
enumeration of 1810, leaving almost exactly
"" Sec the Preliminary Observations on the Population
Abstracts, p. xxvi.
the
S6 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
the nuinber which in the course of the ten
years appears to have died abroad. This
number has been calculated generally at
about 4i per cent, on the male births ; but
in the present case there are the means of
ascertaining more accuratel}^ the number
of males dying abroad during the period
in question. In the last population returns
the male and female births and deaths are
separated; and from the excess of the male
births above the female births, compared
with the male and female deaths, it appears
that forty-five thousand males died abroad*.
The assumed omissions therefore in the
births and burials seem to answer so far
very well.
It remains to see whether the same suppo-
sitions will give such a proportion of births
to deaths, with such a rate of mortality, as
will also account for an increase of numbers
in ten years from 9,287,000 to 10,488,000.
If v/e divide the population of 1810 by
* See Population Abstracts, 1811, page 196 of the
Parish Register Abstract.
It is certainly very extraordinary that a smaller pro-
portion of males than usual should appear to have died
abroad from 1800 to 1810; but as the registers for this
period seem to prove it, I have made my calculations ac-
cordingly.
the
CIi. ix. In Eyighind (conthmedj. 87
the average births of the preceding five years,
witli the addition of ()rc-6'tli, it will appear
that tiie proportion of births to the popula-
tion is as I to 30. But it is obvious that
if the population be increasing with some
rapidity, the average of births for five years,
compared witli the population at the end of
such period, must give the proportion of
births too small. And further there is al-
ways a probability that a proportion which
is correct for five years may not be correct
for ten years. In order to obtain the true
proportion applicable to the progress of
population during the period in question,
we must compare the annual average of the
births for the whole term, with the average
or mean population of the whole term.
The whole number of births, with the
addition of -J^, is, as before stated, 3,358,723,
and the annual average during the ten years
335,872. The mean ])opulation, or the
mean between 10,488,000 (the population
of 1810) and 9,287,000 (the corrected po-
pulation of 1800) is 9,887,000; and the
latter number divided by the average of
the
88 Of the Checks to Population Bk.ii.
the births will give a proportion of births to
the population as 1 to rather less than 29i,
instead of SO, which will make a consider-
able difference.
In the same manner, if we divide the
population of 1810 by the average of the
burials for the preceding five years, with
the addition of one-12th, the mortality will
appeartobeas lin nearly 50 ; but upon the
same grounds as with regard to the births,
an average of the burials for five years,
compared with the population at the end
of such term, must give the proportion of
burials too small ; and further it is known,
in the present case, that the proportion of
burials to the population by no means con-
tinued the same during the whole time. In
fact the registers clearly shew an improve-
ment in the healthiness of the country, and
a diminution of mortality progressively
through the teii years ; and while the ave-
rage number of annual births increased
from 263,000 to 297,000, or more than one-
8th, the burials increased only from 192,000
to 196,000, or one-48th. It is obviously ne-
cessary
Ch. ix. in England (continued). 89
cessary then tor tlie purpose in view to
compare the averaoe niortahty with the
average or mean population.
The whole number of burials in the ten
years, with the addition of one-l2th, is, as
was before stated, 2,112,704, and the mean
population 9,8^7,000. The latter, divided
by the former, gives the annual average of
burials compared with the population as 1
to rather less than 47. But a proportion
of births as 1 to 29i, with a proportion of
deaths as 1 to 47, will add yearly to the
numbers of a country one-79th of the whole,
and in ten years will increase the population
from 9,287,000 to 10,53 1,000, leaving 43,000
for the deaths abroad, and agreeing very
nearly with the calculation founded on the
excess of births '\
We
* A general formula for estimating the population of
a country at any distance from a certain period, under
given circumstances of births and mortality, may be found
m Bridge's Elements of Algebra, p. 225.
Log. A rr log. P 4- n X log. 1 -fm — b
m b
A representing the required population at the cud of any
number of years ; n the number of years ; P the actual
population
90 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
We may presume therefore that the as-
sumed omissions in the births and deaths
from 1800 to 1810 are not far from the
truth.
But if these omissions of one-6th for the
births and one-12th for the burials, may be
considered as nearly right for the period be-
tween 1800 and 1810, itisprobable thatthey
may be applied without much danger of
error to the period between 1780 and 1800,
and may serve to correct some of the con-
clusions founded on the births alone. Next
to an accurate enumeration, a calculation
from the excess of births above the deaths
is the most to te depended upon. Indeed
population at the given period; ^ the proportion of yearly
proportion of yearly
births to the popu
ilation, or ratio of
births.
In the
present
case, P- 9/287,000;
n = 10
; m = 47 ;
br:29|.
m — b
nib
:= -
tV and 1 + m — 1
mb
^=;-?
The ]
!og. of
8_0
7 9
- 00546; .-. n X
log. 1
+ m — b
m b
- 05460. Log. P. = 6.96787, which added to 05460
•zz 7.02247 the log. of A, the number answering to which
ifl 10.531,000.
when
Ch. ix. in England (continued). 91
when the Registers contain all the births
and deaths, and tlicse are the means of
setting out Ironi a known popuhition, it is
obviously tlje same as an actual eninnera-
tion ; and where a nearly correct allowance
can be made for the omissions in the re-
gisters, and for the deaths abroad, a nmch
nearer approximation to it may be obtained
in this way than from the proportion of
births to the whole population, which is
known to be hable to such frequent va-
riations.
The whole number of births returned in the
twenty years, i'rom 1780 to 1 800, is 5,014,899,
and of the burials3,840,455. If we addone-
6th to the former, and one-12th to the latter,
the two numbers will be 5,850,7 lo; and
4,160,492, and subtracting the latter from
the former, the excess of the births above
thedeathswill be 1,690,223. Adding thisex-
cess tothe population of 1780, as calculated
in Mr. Rickman's tables, from the births,
whichis7,953,000,theresultwillbe9,643,000,
a number which, after making a proper al-
lowance for the deaths abroad, is very
much above tlie population of 1800, as be-
fore corrected, and still more above the
number
92 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii,
number which is given in the table as the
result of the enumeration.
But if we proceed upon the safer ground
just suggested, and, taking the corrected
population of 1800 as established, subtract
from it the excess of the births during the
twenty years, diminished by the probable
number of deaths abroad, which in this
case will be about 124,000, we shall have
the number 7,721,000 for the population of
1780, instead of 7,953,000 ; and there is good
reason to believe that this is nearer the
truth ^; and that not only in 1780, but in
many of the intermediate periods, the esti-
mate from the births has represented the
population as greater, and increasing more
irregularly, than would be found to be true,
if recourse could be had to enumerations.
This has arisen from the proportion of
births to the population being variable,
and, on the whole, greater in 1780, and at
other periods during the course of the
twenty years, than it was in 1800,
In 1795, for instance, the population is
* The very small difference between the population
of 1780 and 1785, as given in the table, seems strongly
to imply that one of the two estimates is erroneous.
represented
Ch. ix. i?i England (continued). 93
lepresentcd to be 9,055,000, and in 18(X)
9,168,000**; but if" we suppose the first
number to be correct, and add the excess
of the births above the deaths in the five
intervening years, even without making any
allowance for omissions in the registers,
we shall find that the population in 1800
ought to have been 9,398,000 instead of
9,168,000 ; or if we take the number re-
turned for 1800 as correct, it will appear
by subtracting from it the excess of births
during the five preceding years, that the
population in 1795 ought to have been
8,825,000, instead of 9,055,000. Hence it
follows, that the estimate from the births
in 1795 cannot be correct.
To obtain the population at that period,
the safest way is to apply the before-men-
tioned corrections to the registers, and, hav-
ingmadetheallowanceof4l per cent, on the
male births for the deaths abroad, subtract
the remaining excess of the births from the
corrected returns of 1800. The result in
" Population Abstracts, 1811. Preliminary Wew,
p. XXV.
this
94 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
this case will be 8,831,086 for the popula-
tion of 1795, implying an increase in the
five years of455,914,insteadof only 113,000,
as shewn by the table calculated from
the births.
If we proceed in the same manner with
the period from 1790 to 1795, we shall
find that the excess of births above the
deaths (after the foregoing corrections
have been applied, and an allowance has
been made of 4^ per cent, upon the male
births for the deaths abroad), will be
415,669, which, subti acted from 8,831,086,
the population of 1795, as above esti-
mated, leaves 8,415,417 for the population
of 1790.
Upon the same principle, the excess of
the births above the deaths in the interval
between 1785 and 1790 will turn out to be
416,776. The population in 1785 will
therefore be 7,998,641 . And in like manner
the excess of the births above the deaths in
the interval between 1780 and 1785 will
be 277,544, and the population in 1780
7,721,097.
The
Ch. ix.
in England (continued).
95
'J'hc two tables therefore, of the popu-
Jation, from 1780to 1810, will stand thus:—
Table, calculated from the
births alone, in the Pre-
liminary Observations to
the Population Abstracts
printed in 1811.
Population
in
1780 7,953,000
1785 8,016,000
1790 8,675,000
1795 9,055,000
1800 9,168,000
1805 9,828,000
1810 10,488,000
In the first table, or table calculated from
the births alone, the additions made to the
population in each period of five years are
as follow : —
From 1780 to 1785 63,000
From 1785 to 1790 659,000
From 1790 to 1795 380,000
From 1795 to 1800 113,000
From 1800 to 1805 660,000
From 1805 to 1810 660,000
In
Table,
calculated from the
excess ol" the births above
the deaths, after an allow-
ance made for the omis-
sions in the registers, and
the deaths abroad.
Population
in
1780
7,721,000
1785
7,998,000
1790
8,415,000
1795
8,831, OCX)
1800
9,287,000
1805
9,837,000
1810
10,488,000
96 , Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
In the second table, or table calculated
from the excess of the births above the
deaths, after the proposed corrections have
been applied, the additions made to the
population in each period of five years
will stand thus :—
From 1780 to 1785 277,000
From 1785 to 1790 417,000
From 1790 to 1795 416,000
From 1795 to 1800 456,000
From 1800 to 1805 550,000
From 1805 to 1810 651,000
The progress of the population, according
to this latter table, appears much more na-
tural and probable than according to the
former.
It is in no respect likely that, in the m-
terval between 1780 and 1785, the increase
of the population should only have been
63,000, and in the next period 659,000 ;
or that, in the interval between 1795 and
1800, it should have been only 113,000,
and in the next period 660,000. But it
is not necessary to dwell on probabilities ;
the most distinct proofs may be brought
to
Ch. ix. in England (cont'mnedj. 97
to shew that, whether the new table be
right or not, the old table must be wrong.
Without any allowances being made for
omissions in the registers, the excess of the
births above the deaths, in the period from
1780 to 1785, shews an increase of 193,000,
instead of 63,000. And, on the other
hand, no allowances for omissions in the
registers, that could with the slightest de-
gree of probability be supposed, would make
the excess of births above the deaths in the
period from 1785 to 1790 equal to 659,000,
Making no allowance for omissions, this
excess only amounts to 317,406 ; and if
we were to suppose the omissions in the
births one 4th, instead of one 6th, and that
there were no omissions in the registers of
burials, and that no one died abroad, the
excess would still fall short of the number
stated by many thousands.
The same results would follow, if we
were to estimate the progress of popula-
tion during these periods by the proportion
of births to deaths, and the rate of mor-
tality. In the first period the increase
would turn out to be very much greater
VOL. ir. H than
98 . Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
than the increase stated, and in the other
very much less.
Similar observations may be made with
regard to some of the other periods in
the old table, particularly that between
1795 and 1800, which has been already
noticed.
It will be found on the other hand that, if
the proportion of births to deaths during each
period be estimated with tolerable accuracy
and compared with the mean population,
the rate of the progress of the population
determined by this criterion will, in every
period, agree very nearly with the rate of pro-
gress determined by the excess of the births
above the deaths, after applying the pro-
posed corrections. And it is further worthy
of remark that, if the corrections proposed
should be in some degree inaccurate, as is
probable, the errors arising from any such
inaccuracies are likely to be very much
less considerable than those which must
necessarily arise from the assumption on
which the old table is founded ; namely,
that the births bear at all times the same
proportion to the population.
Of
Ch. ix. in England (continued J. 99
Of course I do not mean to reject any
estimates of population formed in tliis way,
when no better materials are to be found ;
but, in the present case, the registers of the
burials as well as baptisms are given every
year, as far back as 1780, and these regis-
ters, wnth the firm ground of the last enu-
meration to stand upon, afford the means
of giving a more correct table of the popu-
lation from 1780 than was before furnished,
and of shewing at the same time the un-
certainty of estimates from the births alone,
particularly with a view to the progress of
population during particular periods. In
estimating the whole population of a large
country, two or three hundred thousand are
not of nmch importance; but, in estimating
the rate of increase during a period of five
or ten years, an error to this amount is
quite fatal. It will be allowed, 1 conceive,
to make an essential difference in our con-
clusions respecting the rate of increase for
any five years which we may fix upon,
whether the addition made to the popula-
tion during the term in question is 63,000
n 2 or
100 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii,
or 277,000, 115,000 or 456,000, 659,000
or 417,000.
With regard to the period of the century
previous to 1780, as the registers of the bap-
tisms and burials are not returned for every
year, it is not possible to apply the same cor-
rections. And it will be obvious that, in the
table calculated from the births previous to
this period, when the registers are only given
for insulated years at some distance from
each other, very considerable errors may
arise, not merely from the varying propor-
tion of the births to the population, on
averages of five years, but from the indi-
vidual years produced not representing
with tolerable correctness these averages *.
A very slight glance at the valuable
table of baptisms, burials and marriages,
given in the Prehminary Observations,
to the Population Abstracts*', will shew
* From the one or the other of these causes, I have
little doubt, that the numbers m the table for 1 760 and
1770, which imply so rapid an increase of population in
that interval, do not bear the proper relation to each
other. It is probable that the number given for 1770 is
too great. ^ P. 20.
how
Ch. ix. in EngUmd (co)itinuedj. 101
how very little dependence ought to hit
placed upon inferences respecting the
population drawn from the number of
births, deaths or marriages in individual
years. If, for instance, we were estimating
the population in the two years 1800 and
1801, compared with the two following years
1802 and 1803, from tiie proportion of mar-
riages to the population, assuming this pro-
portion to be always the same, it would ap-
pear that, if the population in the first two
years were nine millions, in the second two
years immediately succeeding it would be
considerably above twelve millions, and thus
it would seem to have increased above three
millions, or more than one-third, in this
short interval. Nor would the result of an
estimate, formed from the births for the two
years 1800 and 1801, compared with the
two years 1803 and 1804, be materially dif-
ferent ; at least such an estimate would in-
dicate an increase of two millions six hun-
dred thousand in three years.
The reader can hardly be surprised at
these results, if he recollects that the births,
deaths and marriages bear but a small
proportion
102 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii,
proportion to the whole population ; and
that consequently variations in either of
these, which may take place from temporary
causes, cannot possibly be accompanied by
similar variations in the whole mass of the
population. An increase in the births of
one-third, which might occur in a single
year, instead of increasing the population
one-third, would only perhaps increase it
one-eightieth or ninetieth.
It follows therefore, as I stated in the last
chapter, that the table of the population for
the century previous to 1780, calculated
from the returns of the births alone, at the
distance of ten years each, can only be consi-
dered as a very rough approximation towards
the truth, in the absence of better mate-
rials, and can scarcely in any degree be
depended upon for the comparative rate
of increase at particular periods.
The population in 1810, compared with
that of 1800, corrected as proposed in this
chapter, implies a less rapid increase than
the difference between the two enumera*
tions ; and it has further appeared that the
assumed proportion of births to deaths ag
47 to
Ch. ix. in England (continued). 103
47 to 29\ is nitlier below than above tlie
truth. Yet tliis proportion is quite extra-
ordinary for a rieh and well-peopled terri-
tory. It would add to the population of a
country one 79th every year, and, were it
to continue, would, according to table ii.
p. 168 in this volume, double the number
of inhabitants in less than fifty-five years.
This is a rate of increase, which in the
nature of things cannot be permanent. It
has been occasioned by the stimulus of a
greatly-increased demand for labour, com-
bined with a greatly-increased power of
production, both in agriculture and manu-
factures. These are the two elements ne-
cessary to form an effective encouragement
to a rapid increase of population. A failure
of either of these must immediately weaken
the stimulus ; and there is but too nuich
reason to fear the failure of one of them at
present. But what has already taken place,
is a striking illustration of the priuciple of
population, and a proof that in spite of
great towns, manufacturing occupations,
and the gradually-ac(|uired habits of an
opulent and luxuriant people, if the re-
sources
104 Of the Checks to Population, ^c. Bk. ii.
sources of a country will admit of a rapid
increase, and if these resources are so ad-
vantageously distributed as to occasion a
constantly-increasing demand for labour,
the population will not fail to keep pace
with them.
CHAP.
( 105 )
CHAP. X.
0/ the Checks to Population in Scotland and Ireland.
An examination, in detail, of the statis-
tical account of Scotland, would furnish
numerous illustrations of the principle of
population ; but I have already extended
this part of the work so much, that I am
fearful of tiring the patience of my readers ;
and shall therefore confine my remarks in
the present instance to a few circumstances
which have happened to strike me.
On account of the acknowledged omis-
sions in the registers of births, deaths and
marriages in most of the parishes of Scot-
land, few just inferences can be drawn from
them. Many give extraordinary results.
In the parish of Crossmichael * in Kircud-
bright, the mortality appears to be only 1
in 98, and the yearly marriages 1 in 192.
These proportions would imply the most
• Statistical Account of Scotland, vol. i. p. l67.
unheard-of
106 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
unheard-of healthiness, and the most ex-
traordinary operation of the preventive
check ; but there can be but httle doubt
that they are principally occasioned by omis-
sions in the registr}^ of burials, and the ce-
lebration of a part of the marriages in other
parishes.
In general, however, it appears from re-
gisters which are supposed to be accurate,
that in the country parishes the mortality
is small ; and that the proportions of 1 in
45, 1 in 50, and 1 in 55, are not uncom-
mon. According to a table of the pro-
babilities of life, calculated from the bills
of mortality in the parish of Kettle by
Mr. Wilkie, the expectation of an infant's
life is 46*6% which is very high, and the
proportion which dies in the first year is
only one 10th. Mr. Wilkie further adds, that
from 36 parish accounts, published in the
first volume, the expectation of an infant's
life appears to be 40-3. But in a table
which he has produced in the last volume,
calculated for the whole of Scotland from
Dr. Webster's survey, the expectation at
» Statistical Account of Scotland, vol. ii. p. 407-
birth
Ch. X. in Scotland and Ireland. 107
birth appears to be only 31 years *. This,
however, he thinks, must be too low, as it
exceeds but little the calculations for the
town of Edinburgh.
The Scotch registers appeared to be in
general so incomplete, that the returns of
99 parishes only arc published in the Popu-
lation Abstracts of 1801 ; and, if any judg-
ment can be formed from these, they shew a
very extraordinary degree of healthiness and
a very small proportion of births. The sum
of the population of these parishes in 1801
was 217,873^; the average of burials, for
five years ending in 1800, was about 3,815 ;
and of births 4,928 " : from which it would ap^
pear that the mortality in these parishes was
onl}^ 1 in 56", and the proportion of births
1 in 44. But these proportions are so ex-
traordinary, that it is difficult to conceive that
they approach near the truth. Combining
them with the calculations of Mr. Wilkie,
it will not appear probable that the pro-
portion of deaths and births in ^CQti^nd
* Statistical Account of Scotland, vol. xxi. p. 383.
•' Population Abstracts, Parish Registers, p. 459.
•^ Id. p. 458.
should
108 Of the Checks to Popidatmi Bk. ii.
should be smaller than what has been al-
lowed for England and Wales ; namely,
.1 in 40 for the deaths, and 1 in 30 for the
births ; and it seems to be generally agreed
that the proportion of births to deaths is
4 to 3 ^
With respect to the marriages, it will be
still more difficult to form a conjecture.
They are registered so irregularly, that no
returns of them are given in the Population
Abstract. I should naturally have thought,
from the Statistical Account, that the tend-
ency to marriage in Scotland was upon the
whole greater than in England ; but if it be
true that the births and deaths bear the
same proportion to each other, and to the
whole population, in both countries, the
proportion of marriages cannot be very
different. It should be remarked, however,
that, supposing the operation of the pre-
ventive check to be exactly the same in both
countries, and the climates to be equally
salubrious, a greater degree of want and
poverty would take place in Scotland, be-
fore the same mortality was produced as in
» Statistical Account of Scotland; vol. xxi. p. 383.
England,
Cli. X. in Scotland and Ireland. 109
England, owing to the smaller proportion
of towns and manufactories in the former
country than in the latter.
From a general view of the statistical
accounts the result seems clearly to be, that
the condition of the lower classes of people
in Scotland has been considerably improved
of late years. The price of provisions has
risen, but almost invariably the price of
labour has risen in a greater proportion ;
and it is remarked in most parishes, that
more butcher's meat is consumed among
the common people than formerly; that
they are both better lodged and better
clothed ; and that their habits with respect
to cleanliness are decidedly improved.
A part of this improvement is probably
to be attributed to the increase of the pre-
ventive check. In some parishes a habit of
later marriages is noticed ; and in many
places, where it is not mentioned, it may be
fairly inferred from the proportions of births
and marriages and other circumstances.
The writer of the account of the parish of
Elgin % in enumerating the general causes
• Vol. V. p. 1.
of
110 Of the Checks to Populatiojt Bk. ii.
of depopulation in Scotland, speaks of the
discouragement to marriage from the union
of farms, and the consequent emigration of
the flower of their young men of every class
and description, very few of whom ever
return. Another cause that he mentions
is the discouragement to marriage from
luxury ; at least he observes, till people are
advanced in years, and then a puny race
of children are produced. " Hence how
" many men of every description remain
" single ? and how many young women of
" every rank are never married, who in the
" beginning of this century, or even so late
" as 1745, would have been the parents of
" a numerous and healthy progeny V*
In those parts of the country where the
population has been rather diminished by
the introduction of grazing, or an improved
system of husbandry which requires fewer
hands, this effect has chiefly taken place ;
and I have little doubt that in estimating
the decrease of the population since the
end of the last, or the beginning of the
present century, by the proportion of birthis
at the different periods, they have fallen into
the
Ch. X. in Scotland and Ireland. Ill
the error which has been particuhirly noticed
with regard to Switzerland and France, and
have in consequence made the difference
greater than it really is *.
The general inference on tliis subject
which I should dra^v from the different ac-
counts is, that the marriages are rather
later than formerly. There arc however
some decided exceptions. In those parishes
where manufactures have been introduced
which afford employment to children as
soon as they have reached their 6th or 7th
year, a habit of marrying early naturally
follows ; and while the manufacture con-
tinues to flourish and increase, the evil
arising from it is not very perceptible ;
though humanity must confess with a sigh,
that one of the reasons why it is not so per-
ceptible is, that room is made for fresh fa-
milies by the unnatural mortality which
' One writer takes notice of this circumstance, and
observes, that formerly the births seem to have borne a
greater proportion to the whole population than at pre-
sent. Probably, he says, more were born, and there Was
a greater mortality. Parish of Mohtquitter, vol vi. p. 121.
takes
112 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
takes place among the children so em-
ployed.
There are other parts of Scotland how-
ever, particularly the Western Isles, and
some parts of the Highlands, where popu-
lation has considerably increased from the
subdivision of possessions ; and where per-
haps the marriages may be earlier than they
were formerly, though not caused by the
introduction of manufactures. Here the
poverty which follows is but too conspi-
cuous. In the account of Delting in Shet-
land * it is remarked that the people marry
very young, and are encouraged to this by
their landlords, who wish to have as many
men on their grounds as possible to prose-
cute the hng fishery ; but that they gene-
rally involve themselves in debt and large
families. The writer further observes, that
formerly there were some old regulations
called country acts, by one of wiiich it was
enacted, that no pair should marry unless
possessed of 40/. Scots of free gear. This
regulation is not now enforced. It is said
• Vol. i. p. 385.
that
Ch. X. m Scotland and Ireland. 113
that these regulations were approved and
confirmed by the parhamcnt of Scothmd,
in the reign of Queen Mary, or James VI.
In the account of Bressay Burra and
Quarff in Shetland % it is observed that the
farms are very small, and few have a plough.
The object of the proprietors is to have as
many fishermen on their lands as possible
— a great obstacle to improvements in agri-
culture. They fish for their masters, who
either give them a fee totally inadequate,
or take their fish at a low rate. The writer
remarks that " in most countries the in-
" crease of population is reckoned an ad-
" vantage, and justly. It is however the
" reverse in the present state of Shetland.
" The farms are split. The young men
" are encouraged to marry without having
" any stock. The consequence is poverty
" and distress. It is believed that there is
" at present in these islands double the
" number of people that they can properly
" maintain. '^
The writer of the account of Auchtcr-
» Vol. X. p. 194.
VOL. II. I derran.
114 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
derran % in the county of Fife, says that
the meagre food of the labouring man is
unequal to oppose the effects of incessant
hard labour upon his constitution, and by
this means his frame is worn down before
the time of nature's appointment ; and adds,
" That people continuing voluntarily to enter
" upon such a hard situation by marrying,
" shews how far the union of the sexes and
" the love of independence are principles
" of human nature/' In this observation,
perhaps the love of independence had
better have been changed for the love of
progeny.
The island of Jura '' appears to be abso-
lutely overflowing with inhabitants in spite
of constant and numerous emigrations.
There are sometimes 50 or 60 on a
farm. The writer observes, that such a
swarm of inhabitants, where manufactures
and many other branches of industry are
unknown, are a very great load upon the
proprietors, and useless to the state.
^ Vol. i. p. 449.
^ Vol. xii. p. 317.
Another
Ch. X. in Scotland and Ireland. 115
Another writer* is astonished at the rapid
increase of population, in spite of a consi-
derable emigration to America in 1770, and
a large drain of young men during the late
war. He thinks it difficult to assign ade-
quate causes for it ; and observes that, if
the population continue to increase in this
manner, unless some employment be found
for the people, the country will soon be
unable to support them. And in the ac-
count of the parish of Callander ^ the writer
says, that the villages of this place and
other villages in similar situations, are filled
with naked and starving crowds of people,
who are pouring down for shelter or for
bread ; and then observes, that whenever
the population of a town or village exceeds
the industry of its inhabitants, from that
moment the place must decline.
A very extraordinary instance of a tend-
ency to rapid increase occurs in the regis-
ter of the parish of DuthiP, in the county
of Elgin ; and as errors of excess are not so
» Parish of Lochalsh, county of Ross, vol. xi. p. 422.
" Vol. xi. p. 574.
• Vol. iv. p. 308.
I 2 probable
116 Of the Ckeclcs to Population Bk. ii.
probable as errors of omission, it seems to
be worthy of attention. The proportion of
annual births to the whole population is as
1 to 12, of marriages as 1 to 55, and of
deaths the same. The births are to the
deaths as 70 to 15, or 4| to 1. We may
suppose some inaccuracy respecting the
number of deaths, which seems to err on
the side of defect ; but the very extraordi-
nary proportion of the annual births,
amounting to ^ of the whole population,
seems not to be easily hable to error;
and the other circumstances respecting the
parish tend to confirm the statement. Out
of a population of 830, there were only
three bachelors, and each marriage yielded
seven children. Yet with all this, the popu-
lation is supposed to have decreased consi-
derably since 1745; and it appears that
this excessive tendency to increase had been
occasioned by an excessive tendency to
emigrate. The writer mentions very great
emigrations; and observes that whole
tribes, who enjoyed the comforts of life in a
reasonable degree, had of late years emi-
grated from different parts of Scotland, from
mere
Ch. X. in Scotland and Ireland. 117
mere humour, and a fantastical idea of be-
coming their own masters and freeholders.
Such an extraordinary proportion of
births, caused evidently by habits of emi-
gration, shews the extreme difficulty of de-
populating a country merely by taking
away its people. Take but away its indus-
try, and the sources of its subsistence, and
it is done at once.
It may be observed that in this parish
the average number of children to a mar-
riage is said to be seven, though from the
proportion of annual births to annual mar-
riages it would appear to be only 4f . This
difference occurs in many other parishes,
from which we may conclude that the
writers of these accounts very judiciously
adopted some other mode of calculation,
than the mere uncorrected proportion of
annual births to marriages; and proba-
bly founded the results they give, either on
personal inquiries, or researches into their
registers, to find the number of children,
Avhich had been born to each mother in the
course of her marriage-
The women of Scotland appear to be
prolific.
118 Of the Checks to Population Bk. \l
prolific. The average of 6 children to a
marriage is frequent; and of 7, and even
7t> not very uncommon. One instance is
very curious, as it appears as if this num-
ber was actually living to each marriage,
which would of course imply, that a much
greater number had been and would be
born. In the parish of Nigg% in the county
of Kincardine, the account says that there
are 57 land families, and 405 children,
which gives nearly 7v each ; 42 fisher fa-
milies, and 314 children; nearly 7i each.
Of the land families which have had no
children there were 7 ; of the fishers, none.
If this statement be just, I should conceive
that each marriage must have yielded, or
would yield, in the course of its duration,
as many as 9 or 10 births.
When from any actual survey it appears,
that there are about 3 living children to
each marriage, or 5 persons, or only 4^ to
a house, which are very common propor-
tions, we must not infer that the average
number of births to a marriage is not much
above 3. We must recollect, that all the
* Vol.vii. p. 194.
marriages
Ch. X. in Scotland and Ireland. 119
iiiarriages or establishments of the present
year are of course without children, all of
the year before have only one, all of the
year before that can hardly be expected to
have as many as two, and all of the fourth
year will certainly, in the natural course
of things, have less than three. One out
of five children is a very unusually small
proportion to lose in the course of ten
years ; and after ten years, it may be sup-
posed that the eldest begin to leave their
parents ; so that if each marriage be sup-
posed accurately to yield 5 births in the
course of its duration, the families which
had increased to their full complement
would only have four children ; and a very
large proportion of those which w^ere in the
earlier stages of increase would have less than
three *; and consequently, taking into consi-
deration the number of families where one
of the parents may be supposed to be dead,
I much doubt whether in this case a survey
would give 4^ to a family. In the parish
" It has been calculated that, on an average, the dif-
ference of age in the children of the same family is about
two years.
of
120 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
of Duthil ^, already noticed, the number of
children to a marriage is mentioned as 7,
and the number of persons to a house as
only 5.
The poor of Scotland are in general sup-
ported by voluntary contributions, distri-
buted under the inspection of the minister
of the parish; and it appears, upon the
whole, that they have been conducted with
considerable judgment. Having no claim
of right to relief^, and the supplies, from
the mode of their collection, being neces-
sarily uncertain, and never abundant, the
poor have considered them merely as a last
resource in casesof extreme distress, and not
as a fund on which they might safely rely,
and an adequate portion of which belonged
to them by the laws of their country in all
difficulties.
The consequence of this is, that the com-
' Vol. iv. p. 308.
^ It has lately been stated in Parliament, that the poor-
laws of Scotland are not materially different from those of
England, though they have been very differently under-
stood and executed; but, whatever may be the laws on the
subject, the practice is generally as here represented ; and
it is the practice alone that concerns the present question.
mon
Ch. X. m Scotland and Ireland. 121
iiion people make very considerable exer-
tions to avoid the necessity of applying for
such a scanty and precarious relief. It is
observed, in many of the accounts, that they
seldom fail of making a provision for sick-
ness and for age ; and, in general, the grown-
up children and relations of persons, who
are in danger of falling upon the parish,
step forward, if they are in any way able,
to prevent such a degradation, which is
universally considered as a disgrace to the
family.
The writers of the accounts of the differ-
ent parishes frequently reprobate in very
strong terms the system of English assess-
ments for the poor, and give a decided pre-
ference to the Scotch mode of relief. In
the account of Paisley % though a manufac-
turing town, and with a numerous poor, the
author still reprobates the English system,
and makes an obsenation on this subject,
in Avhich perhaps he goes too far. He says,
that, though there are in no counti'y such
large contributions for the poor as in Eng-
land, yet there is no where so great a num-
» Vol. Tii. p. 74.
ber
122 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii,
ber of them ; and their condition, in compa-
rison of the poor of other countries, is truly
most miserable.
In the account of Caerlaverock % in an-
swer to the question, How ought the poor
to be supphed ? it is most judiciously re-
marked, " that distress and poverty multi-
" ply in proportion to the funds created to
" relieve them ; that the measures of charity
" ought to remain invisible, till the mo-
" ment when it is necessary that they
" should be distributed ; that in the coun-
" try parishes of Scotland in general, small
" occasional voluntary collections are suffi-
" cient ; that the legislature has no occasion
" to interfere to augment the stream, which
" is already copious enough ; in fine, that
" the establishment of a poors' rate would
" not only be unnecessary but hurtful, as
" it would tend to oppress the landholder,
" without bringing relief on the poor/^
These, upon the whole, appear to be the
prevailing opinions of the clergy of Scot-
land. There are, however, some excep-
tions ; and the system of assessments is some-
* Vol. vi. p. 21.
times
Ch. X. in Scotland and Ireland. 123
times approved, and the establishment (^f it
recommended. But this is not to be won-
dered at. In many of these parishes the ex-
periment had never been made ; and with-
out being thoroughly aware of the principle
of population from theory, or having fully
seen the evils of poor-laws in practice, no-
thing seems, on a first view of the subject,
more natural than the proposal of an assess-
ment, to which the uncharitable, as Avell as
the charitable, should be made to contri-
bute according to their abilities, and which
might be increased or diminished, accord-
ing to the wants of tlie moment.
The endemic and epidemic diseases in
Scotland fall chiefly, as is usual, on the
poor. The scurvy is in some places ex-
tremely troublesome and inveterate; and in
others it arises to a contagious leprosy, the
effects of which are always dreadful, and
not unfrequently mortal. One writer calls
it the scourge and bane of human nature*.
It is generally attributed to cold and wet
situations, meagre and unwholesome food,
" Parishes of Forbes and Kearn, County of Aberdeen,
▼ol. xi. p. 189.
impure
124 Oftht Checks to Population Bk. ii.
impure air from damp and crowded houses,
indolent habits, and the want of attention
to cleanliness.
To the same causes, in a great measure,
are attributed the rheumatisms which are
general, and the consumptions which
are frequent, among the common people.
Whenever, in any place, from particular
circumstances, the condition of the poor
has been rendered worse, these disorders,
particularly the latter, have been observed
to prevail with greater force.
Low nervous fevers, and others of a more
violent and fatal nature, are frequently epi-
demic, and sometimes take off considerable
numbers ; but the most fatal epidemic,
since the extinction of the plague which
formerly visited Scotland, is the small-pox,
the returns of which are, in many places,
at regular intervals; in others, irregular,
but seldom at a greater distance than 7 or
8 years. Its ravages are dreadful, though
in some parishes not so fatal as they were
some time ago. The prejudices against
inoculation are still great; and as the mode
of treatment must almost necessarily be bad
in
Ch. X. in Scotland and Ireland. 125
in small and crowded houses, and the cus-
tom of visiting each other during the disor-
der still subsists in many places, it may be
imagined that the mortality must be consi-
derable, and the children of the poor the
principal sufferers. In some parishes of the
Western Isles and the Highlands, the num-
ber of persons to a house has increased from
4i and 5, to 6i and 7. It is evident, that
if such a considerable increase, without the
proper accommodations for it, do not abso-
lutely generate the disease, it must give to
its devastations tenfold force when it ar-
rives.
Scotland has at all times been subject to
years of scarcity, and occasionally even to
dreadful famines. The years 1635, 1680,
1688, the concluding years of the l6th cen-
tury, the years 1740, 1756, 1766, 1778,
1782, and 1783, are all mentioned, in dif-
ferent places, as years of very great suffer-
ings from want. In the year 1680, so many
families perished from this cause, that for
six miles, in a well-inhabited extent, there
was not a smoke remaining'. The seven
• Parish of Duthil, vol. iv. p. S08.
years
126 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
years at the end of the l6th century were
called the ill years. The writer of the ac-
count of the parish of Montquhitter* says,
that of 16 families, on a farm in that neigh-
bourhood, 13 were extinguished; and on
another, out of l69 individuals, only 3 fa-
milies (the proprietors included) survived.
Extensive farms, now containing a hun-
dred souls, being entirely desolated, were
converted into a sheep-walk. The inhabit-
ants of the parish in general were diminished
by death to one-half, or, as some affirm,
to one-fourth of the preceding number.
Until 1709 many farms were waste. In
1740, another season of scarcity occurred ;
and the utmost misery was felt by the poor,
though it fell short of death. Many offered
in vain to serve for their bread. Stout men
accepted thankfully two-pence a day in full
for their work. Great distress was also suf-
fered in 1782 and 1783, but none died.
" If at this critical period,'' the author says,
*' the American war had not ceased; if the
" copious magazines, particularly of pease,
** provided for the navy, had not been
*Vol. vi. p. 121.
" " brought
Ch. X. in Scotland and Ireland. 127
" brought to sale, what a scene of desola-
" tion and horror would have been exhi-
" bited in tliis country !''
Many similar descriptions occur in dif-
ferent parts of the Statistical Account; but
these will be sufficient to shew the nature
and intensity of the distress which has been
occasionly felt I'rom want.
The year 1783 depopulated some parts
of the Highlands, and is mentioned as the
reason why in these places the number of
people was found to have diminished since
Dr. Webster's survey. Most of the small
farmers in general, as might be expected,
were absolutely ruined by the scarcity ; and
those of this description in the Plighlands
were obliged to emigrate to the Lowlands as
common labourers *, in search of a preca-
rious support. In some parishes, at the time
of the last survey, the effect of the ruin of
the farmers, during this bad year, was still
visible in their depressed condition, and the
increased poverty and misery of the com-
mon people, which is a necessary conse-
quence of it.
* Parish of Kincardine, County of Ross, vol. iii. p. 505.
In
128 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.
In the account of the parish of Grange *,
in the county of Banff, it is observed, that
the year 1783 put a stop to all improvements
by green crops, and made the farmers think
of nothing but raising grain. Tenants were
most of them ruined. Before this period,
consumptions were not near so frequent as
they have been since. This may be justly
attributed to the effects of the scarcity and
bad victual in the year 1783, to the long in-
clement harvests in 1782 and 1787, in both
which seasons the labourers were exposed to
much cold and wet during the three months
that the harvests continued ; but principally
to the change that has of late taken place in
the manner of living among the lower ranks.
Formerly every householder could command
a draught of small beer, and killed a sheep
now and then out of his own little flock ; but
now the case is different. The frequent want
of the necessaries of life among the poor,
their damp and stinking houses, and dejec-
tion of mind among the middhng classes,
appear to be the principal causes of the pre-
vailing distempers and mortality of this
» Vol. ix. p. 550.
parish.
Cli, X. in iicolland and lidand. "129
parish. Young j^eople are cut olV by cou-
sunlptions, and the luoie advanced by
dro])hies and nervous fevers.
The state of this parish, which, though
there are others like it, may be considered
as an exception to the average state of Scot-
hmd, was, without doubt, occasioned by
the ruin of the tenants; and the effect is not
to be wondered at, as no greater evil can
easily happen to a countr} , than the loss of
agricultural stock and capital.
We may observe that the diseases of this
parish are said to have increased, in conse-
quence of the scarcity and bad victual of
1783. The same circumstance is noticed
in many other parishes; and it is remarked,
that though few people died of absolute fa-
mine, 3^et that mortal diseases almost uni-
versally followed.
It is remarked also, in some parishes, that
the number of births and marriages are af-
fected by years of scarcity and plenty.
Of the parish of Dingwall*, in the county
of Ross, it is observed that, after the scar-
city of 1783, the births were 16 below^ the
' Vol. iii. p. i.
VOL. II, K average.
130 Of the Checks to Population Bk. iL
average, and 14 below the lowest number of
late years. The year 1787 was a year of
plenty ; and the following year the births in-
creased in a similar proportion, and were
17 above the average, and 11 above the
highest of the other years.
In the accomit of Dunrossness * in Ork-
ney, the writer sa3^s that the annual number
of marriages depends much on the seasons.
In good years they may amount to thirty or
upwards; but, when crops fail, will hardly
come up to the half of that number.
The whole increase of Scotland, since the
time of Dr. Webster's survey in 1755, is about
260,000 ^, for which a proportionate provi-
sion has been made in the improved state of
agriculture and manufactures, and in the in-
creased cultivation of potatoes,which in some
places form two-thirds of the diet of the
common people. It has been calculated
that the half of the surplus of births in Scot-
land is drawn off in emigrations; and it can-
* Vol. vii. p. 391.
^ According to the returns in the estimate of 1800,
the whole population of Scotland was above 1,590,000,
and therefore the increase up to that time was above
320,000. In 1810 the population was 1,805,688.
not
Ch. X. i?i Scotlatid atidlrelafid. 131
not be doubted that this drain tends great-
I}^ to reheve the country, and to improve
the condition of those which remain. Scot-
land is certainly still over-peopled, but not
so much as it was a century or half a cen-
tury ago, when it contained fewxr inhabit-
ants.
The details of the population of Ireland
are but little known. I shall only observe
therefore, that the extended use of potatoes
has allowed of a very rapid increase of it
during the last century. But the cheapness
of this nourishing root, and the small piece
of ground which, under this kind of cultiva-
tion, will in average years produce the food
for a family, joined to the ignorance and
barbarism of the people, which have
prompted them to follow their inclinations
with no other prospect than an immediate
bare subsistence, have encouraged mar-
riage to such a degree, that the population
is pushed much be3ond the industry and
present resources of the country; and the
consequence naturally is, that the low^er
classes of people are in the most depressed
and miserable state. The checks to the
K 2 population
132 Of the Checks to Population, ^x. Bk. ii.
population are of course chiefly of the posi-
tive kind, and arise from the diseases occa-
sioned by squalid poverty, by damp and
wretched cabins, by bad and insufficient
clothing, by the filth of their persons, and
occasional want. To these positive checks
have, of late years, been added the vice and
misery of intestine commotion, of civil war,
and of martial law.
CHAP.
( 133 )
CHAP. XI.
On the Fruitf Illness of Marriages.
IT would be extremely desirable to be able
to deduce from the rate of increase, the ac-
tual population, and the registers of births,
deaths and marriages in different countries,
the real prolifickness of marriages, and the
true proportion of the born which lives to
marry. Perhaps the problem may not be
capable of an accurate solution ; but we
shall make some approximation towards it,
and be able to account for some of the dif-
ficulties which appear in many registers,
if we attend to the followino; considerations.
It should be premised, however, that in
the registers of most countries there is some
reason to believe that the omissions in the
l)irths and deaths are greater than in the
marriages ; and consequently, that the pro-
portion of marriages is almost always given
too great. In the enumeration which lately
took
134 On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. Bk.ii,
took place in this country, while it is sup-
posed with reason that the registry of mar-
riages is nearly correct, it is known with
certainty that there are very great omissions
in the births and deaths ; and it is proba-
ble that similar omissions, though not per-
haps to the same extent, prevail in other
countries.
To form a judgment of the prolifickness
of marriages taken as they occur, including
second and third marriages, let us cut off a
certain period of the registers of any coun-
try (30 years for instance) and inquire what
is the number of births which has been
produced by all the marriages included in
the period cut off. It is evident, that with
the marriages at the beginning of the pe-
riod will be arranged a number of births
proceeding from marriages not included in
the period ; and at the end, a number of
births produced by the marriages included
in the period will be found arranged with
the marriages of a succeeding period. Now,
if we could subtract the former number,
and add the latter, we should obtain exactly
all the births produced by the marriages of
the
Ch. xi. On the Fruit fulness of Marriages. 135
the period, and of course the real prolifick-
ness of those marriages. If the population
be stationary, the number of births to be
added would exactly equal the number to
be subtracted, and the proportion of births
to marriages, as found in the registers,
would exactly represent the real prolifick-
ness of marriages. But if the population
be either increasing or decreasing, the
number to be added would never be equal
to the number to be subtracted, and the
proportion of births to marriages in the re-
gisters would never truly represent the pro-
lifickness of marriages. In an increasing
population the number to be added Avould
evidently be greater than the number to be
subtracted, and of course the proportion of
births to marriages as found in the registers
would always be too small to represent the
true prolifickness of marriages. And the
contrary effect would take place in a de-
creasing population. The question there-
fore is, what we are to add, and what to
subtract, when the births and deaths are
not equal.
The average proportion of births to mar-
riages
136 Oti the Fruitjuluess of Marriages. Bk. ii,
riages in Europe is about 4 to 1. Let us
suppose, for the sake of illustration, that
each marriage yields four children, one
ev*"ry other year^ In this case it is evi-
dent that, ^vherever you begin your period
in the registers, tlie marriages of the pre-
ceding eight years will only have produced
half of their births, and the other half will
be arranged with the marriages included in
the period, and ought to be subtracted
from them. In the same manner the mar-
riages of the last eight years of the period
will only have produced half of their births,
and the other half ought to be added. But
half of the births of any eight years may be
considered as nearly equal to all the births
of the succeeding 3i years. In instances
of the most rapid increase it wdll rather ex-
ceed the births of the next 3^^ years, and, in
cases of slow increase, approach towards
the births of the next 4 years. The mean
therefore may be taken at 3i years ''. Con-
sequently,
" In the statistical account of Scotland it is said, that
the average distance between the children of the same
family has been calculated to be about two years.
^ According to the rate of increase which has lately been
takinsc
Ch. xi. On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. 137
sequently, if we subtract the births of the
first 3i years of the period, and add the
births of the 3i years subsecjuent to the
period, we shall have a number of births
nearly equal to the births produced by all
the marriages included in the period, and
of course the prolifickness of these mar-
riages. But if the po})ulation of a country
be increasing regularly, and the births,
deaths and marriages continue always to
bear the same proportion to each other,
and to the Avhole population, it is evident
that all the births of any period will bear
the same proportion to all the births of any
other period of the same extent, taken a
certain number of years later, as the births
of any single year, or an average of five
years, to the births of a single year, or an
average of five years, taken the same num-
ber of years later; and the same will be
true with regard to the marriages. And
consequently, to estimate the prolifickness
of marriages, we have only to compare the
marriages of the present year, or average
of ^wQ, years, witii the births of a sub-
taking place in England (1802), the period by calculation
would be about 3| years.
sequent
138 On the Fruitf Illness of Marriages. Bk.ii.
sequent year, or average of five years,
taken 3i years later.
We have supposed, in the present in-
stance, that each marriao;e yields four births :
but the average proportion of births to
marriages in Europe is 4 to 1 '^ ; and as the
population of Europe is known to be in-
creasing at present, the prolifickness of
marriages must be greater than 4. If, al-
lowing for this circumstance, we take the
distance of 4 years instead of 3i years, we
shall probably be not far from the truth.
And though undoubtedly the period will
diifer in different countries, yet it will not
differ so much as we might at first imagine ;
because in countries where the marriages
are more prolific, the births generally fol-
low at shorter intervals, and where they
are less prolific, at longer intervals; and
with different degrees of prolifickness, the
length of the period might still remain the
same ^. It
' I think the proportion is probably greater, as there
is reason to believe that in all registers the omissions in
the births and deaths are more numerous than in the
marriages.
'' In places where there are many exports and imports
of people, the calculations will of course be disturbed.
In
Ch.xi. On the Fruitf illness of Marriages. 139
It will follow from these observations, that
the more rapid is the increase of population,
the more will the real prolifickness of mar-
riages exceed the proportion of births to
marriages in tlie registers.
The rule which has been here laid down
attempts to estimate the prolitickness of
marriages taken as they occur; but this
prolifickness should be carefully distin-
guished from the prolifickness of first mar-
riages and of married women, and still more
from the natural prolifickness of w omen in
general taken at the most favourable age.
It is probable, that the natural prolifickness
of women is nearly the same in most parts
of the world ; but the prolifickness of mar-
riages is liable to be affected by a variety
of circumstances peculiar to each country,
and particularly by the number of late
marriages. In all countries the second and
third marriages alone form a most important
consideration, and materially influence the
In towns, particularly, where there is a frequent change
of inhabitants, and where it often happens that the
marriages of the people in the neighbouring country are
celebrated, the inferences from the proportion of births
to marriages are not to be depended on.
140 On the Fruitfuhiess of Marriages. Bk. ii.
average proportions. According to Suss-
milch, in all Pomerania, from 1748 to 1756
both included, the number of persons who
married were 56,9oQ, and of these 10,586
were widows and widowers *. According:
to Busching, in Prussia and Silesia for the
year 1781, out of 29,308 persons who mar-
ried, 4,841 were endows and widowers ^
and consequentW the proportion of mar-
riages will be given full one sixth too much.
In estimating the prolifickness of married
women, the number of illegitimate births ""
would tend, though in a ver}^ slight degree,
to counterbalance the overplus of mar-
riages ; and as it is found that the number
of widowers who marry again, is greater
than the number of widows, the whole of
the correction should not on this account
be applied ; but in estimating the propor-
tion of the born which lives to marry from a
comparison of the marriages and deaths,
which is what we are now about to proceed
' Gottliche Ordnung, vol. i. tables, p. 98.
^ Sussmilch, vol. iii. tables, p. Qo.
^ In France, before the revolution, the proportion of
illegitimate births was -4H of the whole number. Pro-
bably it is less in this countrv.
to.
CIi. xi. On the Fruitfidncss of Marriages. 141
to, the whole of tliis correction is always
necessary.
To find the proportion of the born which
lives to niarr}^ we must first subtract one
sixth from the marriages, and tlien compare
the marriages of any year so corrected,
with the deaths in the registers at such a
distance from them, as is equal to the dif-
ference between the average age of marriage
and the average age of death.
Thus, for example; if the proportion of
marriages to deaths w^ere as 1 to 3, then
subtracting one sixth from the marriages
this proportion would be as 5 to 18, and
the number of persons marrying annually
the first time would be to the number or
annual deaths as 10 to 18. Supposing in
this case the mean age of death to be ten
years later than the mean age of marriage,
in which ten years the deaths would in-
crease i, then the number of persons mar-
rying annually the first time, compared
with the number of annual deaths, at the
distance of the difference between the age
of marriage and the age of death, Avould be
as 10 to 20 ; from which it would follow
that
142 On the Fruitfidness of Marriages. Bk. ii.
that exactly half of the born lived to
marry.
The grounds of this rule will appear from the
following observations on registers in general.
In a country in which the population is
stationary, the contemporary deaths com-
pared with the births will be equal, and
will of course represent the deaths of all the
born ; and the marriages, or more properly
the number of married persons, compared
with both the births and deaths, will, when
a proper allowance has been made for se-
cond and third marriages, represent the
true proportion of the born which lives to
marry. But if the population be either in-
creasing or decreasing, and the births, deaths
and marriages increasing or decreasing in the
same ratio, then the deaths compared with
the births, and the marriages compared with
the births and deaths, Avill cease to express
what they did before, unless the events which
are contemporary in the registers are also
contemporary in the order of nature.
In the first place, it is evident that death
cannot be contemporary with birth, but
must on an average be always at such a
distance
1
Ch. xi. On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. 143
distance from it as is equal to the expecta-
tion of life, or the mean age of death.
Consequently, though the deaths of all the
born are, or will be, in the registers, where
there are no emigrations, yet, except when
the population is stationary, the contem-
porary periods of births and deaths never
shew this, and we can only expect to find
the deaths equal to the .births, if the deaths
be taken at such a distance from the births
in the registers as is equal to the expectation
of life. And in fact, thus taken, the births
and deaths will always be found equal.
Secondly, the marriages of any year can
never be contemporary with the births
from which they have resulted, but must
always be at such a distance from them as is
equal to the average age of marriage. If
the population be increasing, the mar-
riages of the present year have resulted
from a smaller number of births than the
births of the present year, and of course
the marriages, compared with the contem-
porary births, will always be too few to re-
present the proportion of the born which
hves to marry ; and the contrary will take
place
144 On the Fruitf illness of Marriages. Bk. ii.
place if the population be decreasing ; and,
to find this proportion, we must compare
the marriages of any year with the births of
a previous year at the distance of the ave-
rage age of marriage.
Thirdly, the average age of marriage will
almost always be much nearer to the ave-
rage age of death than marriage is to birth ;
and consequently the annual marriages
compared with the contemporary annual
deaths will much more nearly represent the
true proportion of the born living to marry,
than the marriages compared with the
births \ The marriages compared with the
births,
"^ Dr. Price very justly says (Observ. on Revers. Pay.
vol. i. p. 269, 4th. edit.) " that the general effect of an
" increase while it is going on in a country is to render the
" proportion of persons marrying annually, to the an-
" nual deaths greater and to the annual births less than
" the true proportion marrying out of any given number
" bom. This proportion generally lies between the other
" two proportions, but always nearest the first." In tliese
observations I entirely agree with him, but in a note to
this passage he appears to me to fall into an error. He
says, that if the prolifickness of marriages be increased
(the probabilities of life and the encouragement to marriage
remaining the same) both the annual births and burials
would
Ch. xi. On the Fimtfidness of Marriages. 145
births, after a proper allowance has been
made for second and third marriages,
can never represent the true proportion of
the born living to marry, unless when the
population is absolutely stationary ; but al-
would increase in proportion to the annual weddings.
That the proportion of annual births would increase is
certainly true ; and I here acknowledge my error in dif-
fering from Dr. Price on this point in my last edition ;
but I still think that the proportion of burials to weddings
would not necessarily increase under the circumstances
here supposed.
The reason why the proportion of births to weddings
increases is, that the births occurring in the order of na-
ture considerably prior to the marriages which result from
them, their increase will affect the register of births much
more than the contemporary register of marriages. But
the same reason by no means holds with regard to the
deaths, the average age of which is generally later than
the age of marriage. And in this case, after the first interval
between birth and marriage, the permanent effect would
be, that the register of marriages would be more affected
by the increase of births than the contemporary register
of deaths ; and consequently the proportion of the burials
to the weddings would be rather decreased than increased.
From not attending to the circumstance that the average
age of marriage may often be considerably earlier than the
mean age of death, the general conclusion also which
Dr. Price draws in this note does not appear to be strictly
correct.
VOL. II. L though
146 On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. Bk. ii.
though the population be increasing or de-
creasing, the average age of marriage may
still be equal to the average of death ; and
in this case the marriages in the registers
compared with the contemporary deaths,
(after the correction for second and third
marriages,) will represent the true propor-
tion of the born living to marry ^ Gene-
rally however, when an increase of popu-
lation is going ibrwards, the average age of
marriage is less than the average of death,
and then the proportion of marriages, com-
pared with the contemporary deaths, will be
too great to represent the true proportion
of the born living to marry ; and, to find this
proportion, we must compare the marriages
of any particular year with the deaths of a
subsequent year at such a distance from it
• The reader will be aware that, as all the born must
die, deaths may in some cases be taken as synonymous
with births. If we had the deaths registered of all the
births which had taken place in a country during a cer-
tain period, distinguishing the married from the un-
married, it is evident that the number of those who died
married, compared with the whole number of deaths,
would accurately express the proportion of the births
which had lived to marry.
in
Ch. xi. 0)1 the Fru'itf Illness of Marriages. 147
in the registers, as is ecjual to the difference
between the average age of marriage and
the average age of death.
There is no absolutely necessary con-
nexion between the average age of marriage
and the average age of death. In a coun-
try, the resources of which will allow of a
rapid increase of population, the expecta-
tion of life or the average age of death
may be extremely high, and yet the age of
marriage be very early ; and the marriages
then, compared with the contemporary
deaths in the registers, would (even after
the correction for second and third mar-
riages) be very much too great to represent
the true proportion of the born living to
marry. In such a country we might sup-
pose the average age of death to be 40,
and the age of marriage only 20 ; and in
this case, which however would be a rare
one, the distance between marriage and
death would be the same as between birth
and marriage.
If we apply these observations to registers
in general, though we shall seldom be able
to obtain accurately the true proportion of
L 2 the
148 Oji the Fruitfulness of Marriages. Bk. ii.
the born living to marry, on account of our
not knowing the average age of marriage,
yet we may draw many useful inferences
from the information Avhich they contain,
and reconcile many of the difficulties with
which they are accompanied ; and it will
generally be found that, in those countries
where the marjiages bear a very large pro-
portion to the deaths, we shall see reason to
belie-ve that the age of marriage is much
earlier than the average age of death.
In the Russian table for the year 1799,
produced by Mr. Tooke, and referred to
vol. i. p. 372, the proportion of marriages
to deaths appeared to be as 100 to 210.
When corrected for second and third mar-
riages, by subtracting one sixth from the
marriages, it will be as 100 to 252. From
which it would seem to follow, that out of
252 births 200 of them had hved to marry ;
but we cannot conceive any country
to be so healthy, as that 200 out of 252
shovild live to marry. If however we sup-
pose what seems to be probable, that the
age of marriage in Russia is 15 years earher
than the expectation of hfe or the average
Ch. xi. On the Fi'uitf Illness of Marriages. 149
age of death, then, in order to find the
proportion which lives to marry, we must
compare the marriages of the present year
with the deaths 3 3 years later. Supposing
the births to deaths to be (as stated, vol. i.
p. 372) 183 to 100, and the mortality 1 in
50, the yearly increase will be about -gV of
the population ; and consequently in 15
years the deaths will have increased a little
above '28 ; and the result will be, that the
marriages, compared with the deaths 15
years later, will be as 100 to 322. Out of
322 births it will appear that 200 live to
marry, which, from the known healthiness
of children in Russia, and the early age
of marriage, is not an improbable pro-
portion. The proportion of marriages to
births, being as 100 to 385, the prolitick-
ness of marriages, according to the rule laid
down, will be as 100 to 411 ; or each mar-
riage will on an average, including second
and third marriages, produce 4*11 births.
The lists given in the earlier part of the
chapter on Russia are probably not correct.
It is suspected with reason, that there are
considerable omissions both in the births
and
150 On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. Bk. ii
and deaths, but particular!}^ in the deaths ;
and eonsequentlj the proportion of mar-
riages is given too great. There may also
be a further reason for this large proportion
of marriages in Russia. The Empress Ca-
therine, in her instructions for a new code
of laws, notices a custom prevalent among
the peasants, of parents obliging their sons,
while actuall}'^ c]:ildren, to marry full-grown
women, in order to save the expense of
buying female slaves. These women, it is
said, generally become the mistresses of the
father ; and the custom is particularly re-
probated by the Empress as prejudicial
to population. This practice would na-
turally occasion a more than usual num-
ber of second and third marriages, and
of course more than usually increase the
proportion of maniages to births in the
registers.
In the Transactions of the Society at Phi-
ladelphia, (vol. iii. No. vh. p. 25,) there is
a paper by Mr. Barton, entitled Observa-
tions on the Probabiliti/ of Life in the' United
States, in which it appears, that the pro-
portion of marriages to births is as 1 to 44.
He
Ch. xi. On the Fruitjulness oj Marriages. 151
He mentions indeed 6^, but his numl)ers
give only 4V. As however this pro]>ortion
was taken j)rincipally from towns, it is pro-
bable that the births are given too low;
and I think we may very safely take as
many as five for the average of towns and
country. According to the same authority,
the mortality is about 1 in 45 ; and if the
population doubles every 25 years, the
births would be about 1 in 20. The pro-
portion of marriages to deaths would on
these suppositions be as 1 to 2f ; and, cor-
rected for second and third marriages, as 1
to 2*7 nearly. But we cannot suppose, that
out of 27 births 20 should hve to marr3^
If however the age of marriage be ten years
earher than the mean age of death, which
is highly probable, we must compare the
marriages of the present year with the
deaths ten years later, in order to obtain
the true proportion of the born which lives
to marry. According to the progress of
population here stated, the increase of the
deaths in ten years would be a little above
•3, and the result will be, that 200 out of
351, or about 20 out of 35, instead of 20
out
152 On the Fruitjuhiess of Marriages. Bk. iL
out of 27, will live to marry ''. The mar-
riages compared with the births 4 years
later, according to the rule laid down, will
in this case give 5*58 for the prolifickness
of marriages. The calculations of Mr. Bar-
ton respecting the age to which half of the
born live, cannot possibly be applicable to
America in general. The registers, on which
they are founded, are taken from Philadel-
phia and one or two small towns and vil-
lages, which do not appear to be so healthy
as the moderate towns of Europe, and there-
fore can form no criterion for the country in
general.
* If the proportions mentioned by Mr. Barton be just,
the expectation of life in America is considerably less than
in Russia, which is the reason that I have taken only 10
years for the difference between the age of marriage and
the age of death, instead of 15 years, as in Russia. Ac-
cording to the mode adopted by Dr. Price, (vol. i. p. 272,)
of estimating the expectation of life in countries the po-
pulation of which is increasing, this expectation in Russia
would be about 38, (births -^ deaths ^-V, mean -jL.),
and supposing the age of marriage to be 23, the difference
would be lo.
In America the expectation of life would, upon the
same principles, be only 32 i-, (births ^, deaths Jy, mean
^i_j); and supposing the age of marriage 22jl the dif^
ference would be 10.
In
Ch. xi. On the Fruitfubiess of Marriages. 153
In England the average proportion of
marriages to births appears of late years to
have been about 100 to 350. If we add \ to
the births instead of \-, which in the chapter
on the Checks to Population in England I
conjectured might be nearly the amount of
the omissions in the births and deaths, this
will allow for the circumstance of illegi-
timate births ; and the marriages will then
be to the births as 1 to 4, to the deaths as
1 to 3*. Corrected for second and third
marriages, the proportion of marriages to
deaths will be as 1 to S'6. Supposing the
age of marriage in England about 7 years
earlier than the mean age of death, the in-
crease in these 7 years, according to the
present progress of population of yVo- yearly,
would be '06, and the proportion living to
marry would be 200 out of 381, or rather
more than half ^. The marriages compared
with
• This applies to the state of population before 1800.
'' Births -Jg^, deaths ^l, mean -j^-; and on the sup-
position that the age of marriage is 28, the difference
would be 7. With regard to the allowance wiiich I have
made here and in a former chapter for the omissions in
the births and deaths, I wish to observe that, as I had no
very
154 On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. Bk. ii.
with the births four years later will give
4' 136 for the prohfickness of marriages.
These instances will be sufficient to shew
the mode of applying the rules which have
been given, in order to form a judgment,
from registers, of the prohfickness of mar-
riages, and the proportion of the born which
lives to marry.
It will be observed how very important
the correctioa for second and third mar-
riages is. Supposing each marriage to
yield four births, and the births and deaths
to be equal, it would at first appear neces-
sary that, in order to produce this effect,
very certain and satisfactoi7 grounds on which to pro-
ceed, it may be incorrect and perhaps too great ; though,
assuming this allowance, the mortality appears to be ex-
traordinarily sn»Qll considermg the circumstances of the
country. It should be remarked, however, that in coun-
tries which are different in their rates of increase, the
annual mortality is a very incorrect criterion of their com-
parative healthiness. When an increase is going forward
the portion of the population, which becomes extinct
every year, is very different from the expectation of life,
as has appeared very clearly in the cases of Russia and
America just noticed. And as the increase of population
in England has of late years been more rapid than in
France, this circumstance will undoubtedly contribute in
part to the great difference in the annual mortality.
exactly
Ch. xi. On the Fruitf Illness of Marriages. 155
exactly half of the born should live to marry;
but if, on account of the second and third
marriages, we subtract v from the mar-
riages, and then compare them Avith the
deaths, the proportion will be as 1 to 4f ;
and it will appear that, instead of one half,
it will only be necessary that 2 children
out of 4f should live to marry. Upon the
same principle, if the births were to the
marriages as 4 to 1, and exactly half of
the born live to marry, it might be sup-
posed at first that the population would
be stationary ; but if we subtract \ from
the marriages ; and then take the pro-
portion of deaths to marriages as 4 to 1,
we shall find that the deaths in the
registers, compared with the marriages,
would only be as 3 J to 1 ; and the births
would be to the deaths as 4 to 3 J, or 12
to 10, which is a tolerably fast rate of in-
crease.
It should be further observed, that as a
much greater number of widowers marry
again than of widows, if we wish to know the
proportion of males which hves to marry,
we must subtract full -} from the marriages
instead
156 On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. Bk. ii,
instead of i**. According to this correc-
tion, if each marriage yielded 4 births, it
would only be necessary that two male
children out of 5 should live to marry in
order to keep up the population; and if
each marriage yielded 5 births, less than
one third would be necessary for this pur-
pose ; and so for the other calculations. In
estimating the proportion of males living to
marry, some allowance ought also to be
made for the greater proportion of male
births.
Three causes appear to operate in pro-
ducing an excess of the births above the
deaths : 1 . the prolifickness of marriages ;
2. the proportion of the born which lives to
marry ; and 3. the earhness of these mar-
riages compared with the expectation of
life, or the shortness of a generation by
• Of 28,473 marriages in Pomerania, 5,964 of the men
were widowers. Sussmilch, vol. i. tables, p. 98. And
according to Busching, of 14,759 marriages in Prussia
and Silesia, 3,07 1 of the men were widowers. Sussmilch,
vol. iii. tables, p. 95. Muret calculates that 100 men
generally marry 110 women. Memoires par la Soci6te
E'conomique de Berae. Ann6e 1766, premiere partie,
page 30.
marriage
Ch. xi. On the Fruitfulness of Mai'riages. 157
marriage and birth, compared with the
passing away of a generation by death.
This latter cause Dr. Price seems to have
omitted to consider. For though he very
justly says that the rate of increase, sup-
posing the prolific powers the same, depends
upon the encouragement to marriage, and
the expectation of a child just born ; yet
in explaining himself, he seems to consider
an increase in the expectation of life, merely
as it affects the increase of the number of
persons who reach maturity and marry, and
not as it affects, besides, the distance be-
tween the age of marriage and the age of
death. But it is evident that, if there be
any principle of increase, that is, if one
marriage in the present generation yields
more than one in the next, including second
and third marriages, the quicker these ge-
nerations are repeated, compared with the
passing away of a generation by death, the
more rapid will be the increase.
A favourable change in either of these
three causes, the other two remaining the
same, will clearly produce an effect upon
population, and occasion a greater excess of
the
158 On the Frmtfiilness of Marriages. Bk. ii.
the births above the deaths in the registers.
With regard to the two first causes, though
an increase in either of them will produce
the same kind of effect on the proportion
of births to deaths, yet their effects on
the proportion of marriages to births
will be in opposite directions. The
greater is the prolifickness of marriages,
the greater will be the proportion of
births to marriages ; and the greater is
the number of the born which lives to be
married, the less will be the proportion of
births to marriages ^. Consequently, if
within
* Dr. Price himself has insisted strongly upon this,
(vol. i. p. 270, 4th edit.) and yet he says (p. 275) that
healthfulness and prolifickness are probably causes of in-
crease seldom separated, and refers to registers of births
and weddings as a proof of it. But though these causes may
undoubtedly exist together, yet if Dr. Price's reasoning
be just, such co-existence cannot possibly be inferred
from the lists of births and weddings. Indeed the two
countries, Sweden and France, to the registers of which
he refers as shewing the prolifickness of their marriages,
are known to be by no means remarkably healthy ; aud
the registers of towns to which he alludes, though they
may shew, as he intends, a want of prolifickness, yet, ac-
cording to his previous reasoning, shew at the same time
great
Ch. xi. On the Fruitf Illness of Marriages. 159
within certain limits, the prolifickness of mar-
riages and the number of the born hving to
marry increase at the same time, the pro-
portion of births to marriages in the regis-
ters may still remain unaltered. And this
is the reason why the registers of different
countries, with respect to births and mar-
riages, are often found the same imder very
different rates of increase.
The proportion of births to marriages,
indeed, forms no criterion whatever, by
which to judge of the rate of increase. The
population of a country may be stationary
or declining with a proportion of 5 to 1, and
may be increasing -vvith some rapidity with
a proportion of 4 to 1. But given the rate
great healthiness, and therefore ought not to be produced
as a proof of the absence of both. The general fact
that Dr. Price wishes to establish may still remain true,
that country situations are both more healthy and more
prolific than towns : but this fact certainly cannot be in-
ferred merely from lists of births and marriages. With
regard to the different countries of Europe, it will gene-
rally be found, that those are the most healthy which are
the least prolific, and those the most prolific which are
the least healthy. The earlier age of marriage in un-
healthy countries is the obvious reason of this fact.
of
160 On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. Bk. ii.
of increase, which may be obtained from
other sources, it is clearly desirable to find
in the registers a small rather than a large
proportion of births to marriages ; because
the smaller this proportion is, the greater
must be the proportion of the born which
lives to marry, and of course the more
healthy must be the country.
Crome^ observes that, when the mar-
riages of a country yield less than 4 births,
the population is in a very precarious state ;
and he estimates the prolifickness of mar-
riages by the proportion of yearly births to
marriages. If this observation were just,
the population of many countries of Europe
would be in a precarious state, as in many
countries the proportion of births to mar-
riages in the registers is rather below than
above 4 to 1. It has been shewn in what
manner this proportion in the registers
should be corrected, in order to make it a
just representation of the prolifickness of
marriages ; and if a large part of the born
live to marry, and the age of marriage be
considerably earlier than the expectation of
* Ueberdie Bevblkerung der Europais. Staat. p. 91-
life.
Ch. xi. On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. 161
life, such a proportion in the registers is by
no means inconsistent with a rapid increase.
In Russia it has appeared that the propor-
tion of births to marriages is less than 4 to 1 ;
and 3'et its population increases faster than
that of any otlier nation in Europe. In
England the population increases more
rapidly than in France ; and yet in England
the proportion of births to marriages, when
allowance has been made for omissions, is
about 4 to 1, in France 4|^ to 1. To occa-
sion so rapid a progress as that which has
taken place in America, it will indeed be
necessary that all the causes of increase
should be called into action ; and if the
prolifickness of marriages be very great, the
proportion of births to marriages will cer-
tainly be above 4 to 1 : but in all ordinary
cases, where the whole power of procrea-
tion has not room to expand itself, it is
surely better that tlie actual increase should
arise from that degree of healthiness in the
early stages of life which causes a great
proportion of the born to live to maturity
and to marry, than from a great degree of
prolifickness accompanied by a great mor-
voL. II. M tality.
162 On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. Bk. ii.
tality. And consequently in all ordinary
cases a proportion of births to marriages as
4, or less than 4, to 1 cannot be considered
as an unfavourable sign.
It should be observed that it does not
follow that the marriages of a country are
early, or that the preventive check to popu-
lation does not prevail, because the greater
part of the born lives to marry. In such
countries as Norway and Switzerland, where
half of the born live to above 40, it is evi-
dent that, though rather more than half
live to marry, a large portion of the people
between the ages of 20 and 40 would be
living in an unmarried state, and the pre-
ventive check Avould appear to prevail to
a great degree. In England it is probable
that half of the born live to above S5 ; and
though rather more than half live to marry,
the preventive' check might prevail consi-
derably (as we know it does), though not
to the same extent as in Norway and Swit-
zerland.
The preventive check is perhaps best
measured by the smallness of the proportion
of yearly births to the whole population.
The
Ch. xi. On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. 163
The proportion of yearly marriages to the
population is only a just criterion in coun-
tries similarly circumstanced, but is incor-
rect where there is a difterence in the pro-
lifickness of marriages or in the proportion
of the population under the age of puberty,
and in the rate of increase. If all the
marriages of a country, be they few or
many, take place young, and be conse-
quently prolific, it is evident that, to produce
the same proportion of births, a smaller
proportion of marriages will be necessary ;
or with the same proportion of marriages a
greater proportion of births will be produced.
This latter case seems to be applicable to
France, where both the births and deaths
are greater than in Sweden, though the
proportion of marriages is nearly the same,
or rather less. And when, in two countries
compared, one of them has a much greater
part of its population under the age of
puberty than the other, it is evident that
any general proportion of the yearly mar-
riages to the whole population will not
imply the same operation of the preventi\ e
check among those of a marriageable age.
M S It
164 On the Fniitfulness of Marriages. Bk. ii.
It is, in part, the small proportion of the
population under the age of puberty, as
well as the influx of strangers, that occasions
in towns a greater proportion of marriages
than in the country, although there can be
little doubt that the preventive check pre-
vails most in towns. The converse of this
will also be true; and consequently in such
a country as America, where half of the
population is mider sixteen, the proportion
of yearly marriages wnll not accurately ex-
press how little the preventive check really
operates.
But on tlie supposition of nearly the
same natural prolifickness in the women of
most countries, the smahness of the pro-
portion of births will generally indicate,
with tolerable exactness, the degree in
which the preventive check prevails, whe-
ther arising principally from late, and con-
sequently unprolific, marriages, or from a
large proportion of the population above
the age of puberty dying unmarried.
That the reader may see at once the rate
of increase, and the period of doubling,
which would result from any observed pro-
portion
Ch. xi. On the Fruitf Illness of Marriages, 16$
portion of births to deaths, and of these to
the whole popuhition, I subjoin two tables
fromSussniilch, calculated by Euler, which
I believe are very correct. The first is con-
fined to the supposition of a mortality of 1
in S6, and therefore can only be applied to
countries where such a mortality is known
to take place. The other is general, de-
pendiag solely upon the proportion which
the excess of the births above the burials
bears to the whole population, and therefore
may be applied universally to all countries,
whatever may be the degree of their nior-
tahty.
It will be observed that, when the pro-
portion between the births and burials is
given, the period of doubling will be shorter,
the greater the mortality ; because the
births as well as deaths are increased by
this supposition, and they both bear a
greater proportion to the whole population
than if the mortality were smaller, and
there were a greater number of people in
advanced life.
The mortahty of Russia, according to
Mr. Tooke, is 1 in 58, and the propoition
of
166 On the Fruitf Illness of Marriages. Bk. ii.
of births 1 in 26, Allowing for the omis-
sions in the burials, if we assume the mor-
tality to be 1 in 52, then the births will be
to the deaths as 2 to 1, and the proportion
which the excess of births bears to the whole
population will be ^-V^ According to
Table II. the period of doubling will, in
this case, be about 36 years. But if we
were to keep the proportion of births to
deaths as 2 to 1, and suppose a mortahty
of 1 in 36, as in Table I., the excess of
births above the burials would be -^ of
the whole population, and the period of
doubling would be only 25 years.
• The proportions here mentioned are diflferent from
those which have been taken from the additional table in
Mr. Tooke's second edition ; but they are assumed here
as more easily and clearly illustrating the subject.
TABLE
Ch. xi. On the Fr uitf Illness of Marriages, 167
TABLE I.
When in any country there are 103,000 persons living,
and the mortality is 1 in oQ.
If the proporlion of
death! to birthi be .is
Then tlic cxco«b o
the births will be
The proportion of tht
excess of the birtlm
to the uhnle iioiiula-
tion, will be
And Ihenfore the pe-
riod of doubling will br
11
277
T^-0
250 years.
1-2
555
Tiir
125
13
833
1
12 0
83 1
U
1110
W
62 J
\b
1388
1
7 2
50i
16
1666
tV
42
10:
17
1943
tV
35 J
18
2221
4 6
31-^-
19
1\m
tV
28
'JO
2777
tV
25^
22
3332
To"
2H
25
4165
A
17
^30
5554
Ts"
12f
TABLE IL
Tli» proportion of th.
ixcws of births abovt
the deaths to the wliole
c.f the lirinp.
Periods of doubling
in years and ten
thousandth parts.
The proportion of the
excess or births above
thf deaths, to the whole
of the living.
Periods of doublinR in
years and ten thou-
sandth parts.
fio
7.2722
r2i
14..9000
11
7-9659
22
15. .5932
12
8.6595
23
16.2864
13
.9.3530
24
\(^.9797
14
10.0465
1 -
25
U.67'29
1:^
15
10.7400
26
18.3662
16
11.4333
27
19-0594
17
12.1266
28
19-7527
18
12.8200
29
20.4458
19
13.5133
[30
21.1391
.20
14.2066
TABLE
168 On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. Bk. \i.
TABLE II. continued
The proportoQ cf the
The proportion of the
1
excess of birihb aoovt
Periods of doubling
excess of births above
i'eriods of doubling in'
years and ten thou-
tUe deathh, to the waoie
m years and te*
the deathsjto thewhHt
of the living.
t ousandth parts.
of the living.
saadth parts.
CS2
22.5255
r2io
145.9072
34
23.9119
220
152.8387
36
25.2983
230
159.7702
38
26.6847
240
166.7017
40
28.0711
1:.
250
173.6332
1-^42
29.4574
260
180.5647
44
30.8438
270
1 87.4961
46
32.2302
280
194.4275
48
43.6161
290
201.3590
too
35.0029
.300
2O8.2905
^ 55
38.4687
r3io
215.2220
60
41.9345
320
222.1535
65
45.4003
330
229.0850
70
48.f:66l
340
236.0164
l:<
75
52.3318
1 :«
350
242.9479
80
55.7.977
360
249.8794
85
59.2634
370
256.8109
90
.62.7292
380
263.7425
9o
66.1950
390
270.6740
, JOO
69.6607
^400
277.6055
^110
76.5923
f410
284.5370
120
83.5230
420
291.4685
130
90.4554
430
298.4000
140
97-3S68
440
305.3314
1 -
150
104.3183
1:<
450
312.2629
i6o
111.2598
46c
319.1943
170
118.1813
470
326.1258
180
125.1128
480
333.0573
]90
132.0443 j
490
339.9888
,200
138.9757
■
[500
346.9202
1 : 1000
693.49.
CHAP.
( 169 )
CHAP. XII.
EffecU of Epidemics on Registers of Births, Deaths, and
Marriages.
XT appears clearly from the very valuable
tables of mortality, which Sussmilch has
collected, and which include periods of 50
or 60 years, that all the countries of Europe
are subject to periodical sickly seasons,
which check their increase ; and very few
are exempt from those great and wasting
plagues which, once or twice perhaps in a
century, sweep off the third or fourth part of
their inhabitants. The way in which these
periods of mortality affect all the general
proportions of births, deaths, and mar-
riages, is strikingly illustrated in the tables
for Prussia and Lithuania, from the year
1692 to the year 1757 ^
' Sussmilch, Gottliche Ordnung, vol, i. table xxi. p. 83
of the tables.
TABLE
170 Effects of Epidemics on Registers of Bk. ii.
TABLE III.
Annual Average.
Marriages.
Births.
Deaths.
Proportion of
niarriaecs to
births.
Proportion of
deaths to
births.
oy'^XolGgi
5 y''— 1 702
6 y"— 1708
5747
6070
6082
19715
24112
26896
14862
14474
16430
10 : 34
10 : 39
10 : 44
100 : 132
100 : 165
100 : 163
Inl709&1710
a plague
number de-
stroyed in 2
years.
247733
In 1711
In 1712
12028
6267
32522
22970
10131
10445
10 : 27
10 : 36
100 : 320
100 : 220
5 y"to 1716
5 y"_1721
5 y'^_1726
5 y^»_1731
4 y'**— 1735
4.968
4324
471.9
4808
5424
21603
21396
21452
29554
22692
11984
12039
12863
12825
15475
10 : 43
10 : 49
10 : 45
10 : 42
10 : 41
100
100
100
100
100
180
177
166
160
146
In 1736
In 1737
5280
5765
21859
18930
26371
24480
Epidemic
years.
5 y" to 1742
4 y-— 1746
5 y-_1751
5 y"^— 1736
5582
5469
6423
^^99
22099
25275
28235
28892
15255
15117
17272
19154
10 : 39
10 : 46
10 : 43
10 : 50
100 : 144
100 : 167
100 : 163
100 : 148
In the 16 y" be-
fore the plague.
955S5
380516
245763
10 : 39
100 : 154
In 46 y'" after
the plague
248777
1083872
690324
10 : 43
100 : 157
In 62 good y".
344361
1464388
936087
936087
10 : 43
100 : 156
More born
than died
528301
In the 2 plague
years
5477
23977
247733
In all the 64 years in-
cluding the plague
340838
1488365
1183820
1183820
10 : 42
100 : 125
More born
than died
304745
The
Ch. xii. Births, Deaths, and Marriages. 171
The table, from which this is copied, con-
tains the marriages, births and deaths for
every particular year during the whole pe-
riod ; but to bring it into a smaller com-
pass, I have retained only the general ave-
rage drawn from the shorter periods of five
and four years, except where the nund:)ers
for the individual years presented any fact
worthy of particular observation. The year
1711, immediately succeeding the great
plague, is not included by Sussmilch in any
general average ; but he has given the pai-
ticular numbers, and if they be accurate
they shew the very sudden and prodigious
effect of a great mortality on the number of
marriages.
Sussmilch calculates that above one third
of the people w^as destroyed by the plague;
and yet, notwithstanding this great diminu-
tion of the population, it will appear by a
reference to the table, that the number of
marriages in the year 17 11 was very nearly
double the average of the six years pre-
ceding the plague '*. To produce this effect,
Ave
' The number of people before tlic plaguo^ according
to
172 Effects of Epidemics on Registers of Bk. ii.
we may suppose that almost all who were at
the age of puberty were induced, from the
demand for labour and the number of va-
cant employments, immediately to marry.
This immense number of marriages in the
year could not possibly be accom^panied by
a great proportional number of births, be-
cause we cannot suppose that the new mar-
riages could each yield more than one birth
in the year, and the rest must come from the
marriages which had continued unbroken
through the plague. We cannot there-
to Sussmilch's calculations, (vol. i. ch. ix. sect. 173,) was
570,000, from which if we subtract 247,733, the number
dying in the plague, the remainder, 32'i,267, will be the
population after the plague; which, divided by the num-
ber of marriages and the number of births for the year
3711, makes the marriages about one twenty-sixth part of
the population, and the births about one tenth part. Such
extraordinary proportions could onlj occur m any coun-
try, in an individual year. If they were to continue, they
would double the population in less than ten years. It is
possible that there may be a mistake in the table, and
that the births and marriages of the plague years are in-
cluded in the year 1711; though as the deaths are carefully
separated, it seems very strange that it should be so. It
is however a matter of no great importance. The other
years are sufficient to illustrate the general principle.
fore
Cli. xii. Births, Deaths, and Marriages. 173
fore be surprised that the proportion of
births to marriages in this year should be
only 2-7 to 1, or 27 to 10. But though the
proportion of births to marriages could not
be great; yet, on account of the extraordi-
nary number of marriages, the absolute
number of births must be great ; and as the
number of deaths would naturally be small,
the proportion of births to deaths is prodi-
gious, being 320 to 100; an excess of births
as great, perhaps, as has ever been known
in America.
In the next year, 1712, the number of
marriages must of course diminish exceed-
ingly; because, nearly all who were at the age
of puberty having married the year before,
the marriages of this year would be supplied
principally by those who had arrived at this
age, subsequent to the plague. Still, how-
ever, as all who were marriageable had not
probably married the year before, the num-
ber of marriages in the year 1712 is great in
proportion to the population; and, though
noi much more than half of the number
which took place during the preceding
year, is greatei' than the average nimiber in
the
174 Effects of Epidemics on Registers of Bk. ii.
the last period before the plague. The pro-
portion of births to marriages in 1712,
though greater than in the preceding year
on account of the smaller comparative num-
ber of marriages, is, with reference to other
countries, not great, being as S6 to 1, or
S6 to 10. But the proportion of births to
deaths, though less than in the preceding
year, when so very large a proportion of
the people married, is, with reference to
other countries, still unusually great, being
as 220 to 100 ; an excess of births, which,
calculated on a mortality of 1 in S6, would
double the population of a country (accord-
ing to Table I, page 167) in 21^ years.
From this period the number of annual
marriages begins to be regulated by the di-
minished population, and of course to sink
considerably below the average number of
marriages before the plague, depending
principally on the number of persons rising
annually to a marriageable state. In the
year 1720, about nine or ten years after the
plague, the number of annual marriages,
either from accident, or the beginning ope-
ration of the preventive check, is the small-
est
Ch. xii. Births, Deaths^ and Marriages, 175
est; and it is at this time that the proportion
of births to marriages rises very higli. In
the period from 1717 to 1721 the propor-
tion, as appears by the table, is 49 to 10;
and in the particular years 1719 and 1720,
it is 50 to 10 and 5d to 10.
Sussmilch draws the attention of his read-
ers to the fruitfulness of marriages in Prussia
after the plague, and mentions the propor-
tion of 50 annual births to 10 annual mar-
riages as a proof of it. There are the best
reasons from the general average for sup-
posing that the marriages in Prussia at this
time were very fruitful ; but certainly the
proportion of this individual year, or even
period, is not a sufficient proof of it, being
evidently caused by a smaller number of
marriages taking place in the year, and not
by a greater number of births *. In the two
years immediately succeeding the plague,
when the excess of births above the deaths
was so astonishing, the births bore a small
proportion to the marriages ; and according
to the usual mode of calculating, it would
" Sussmilch, Gottliche Ordnung, vol. i. c. v. s. Ixxxvi.
p. 175.
have
176 Effects of Epidemics on Registers of Bk. ii,
have followed that each marriage yielded
only 27 or S'6 children. In the last period
of the table, (from 1752 to 1756), the births
are to the marriages as 5 to 1, and in
the individual year 1756, as Cl to 1: and
yet during this period the births are to the
deaths only as 14-8 to 100, which could not
have been the case, if the high proportion
of births to marriages had indicated a much
greater number of births than usual, instead
of a smaller number of marriages.
The variations in the proportion of births
to deaths, in the ditferent periods of the 64
years included in the table, deserve parti-
cular attention. If we were to take an ave-
rage of the four years immediately succeed-
ing the plague, the births would be to the
deaths in the proportion of above 22 to 10,
which, supposing the mortahty to be 1
in Z6^ would double the population in
twenty-one years. If we take the twenty
years from 1711 to 1731, the average
proportion of the births to deaths will
appear to be about 17 to 10, a proportion
which (according to Table 1. page l67)
would double the population in about thirty-
five
Ch. xil. Births, Deaths, and Marriages. 177
five years. But if, instead of twenty years,
we were to take the whole period of 64
years, the avera«;e proportion of births to
deatlis turns out to be but a httle more than
12 to 10 ; a proportion wliich would not
double the population in less than 125 years.
If we were to include the mortality of the
plague, or even of the epidemic years
1736 and 1737, in too short a period, the
deaths might exceed the births, and the po-
pulation would appear to be decreasing.
Sussmilch thinks that, instead of 1 in 36,
the mortality in Prussia after the plague
might be 1 in 38 ; and it may appear per-
haps to some of my readers, that the plenty
occasioned by such an event ought to make
a still greater difference. Dr. Short has
particularly remarked that an extraordi-
nary healthiness generally succeeds any
very great mortality ** ; and I have no doubt
that the observation is just, conjparing si-
milar ages together. But, under the most
favourable circumstances, infants under
three years are more subject to death than
at other ages ; and the extraordinary pro-
^ History of Air, Seasons, &,c., vol. ii. p. 344.
VOL. II. X portion
178 Effects of Epidemics on Registers of Bk. ii.
portion of children which usually follows a
very great mortality, counterbalances at first
the natural healthiness of the period, and
prevents it from making much difference
in the general mortality.
If we divide the population of Prussia
after the plague, by the number of deaths
in the year 1711, it will appear that the
mortality was nearly 1 in 31, and Avas
therefore increased rather than diminished,
owing to the prodigious number of children
born in that year. But this greater mor-
tality would certainly cease, as soon as
these children began to rise into the firmer
stages of life, and then probably Suss-
milch's observations would be just. In ge-
neral however, we shall observe that a great
previous mortality produces a more sensible
effect on the births than on the deaths. By
referring to the table it will appear, that the
number of annual deaths regularly increases
with the increasing population, and nearly
keeps up the same relative proportion all
the way through. But the number of an-
nua! births is not very different during the
whole period, though in this time the po-
pulation
Ch. xii. Births, Deaths, and Marriages. 179
pulation had more than doubled itself"; and
therefore the proportion of births to the
whole population, at hrst and at last, must
have changed in an extraordinary degree.
It will appear therefore how liable we
should be to err in assuming a given pro-
portion of births, for the purpose of esti-
mating the past population of any country.
In the present instance, it would have led
to the conclusion, that the population was
scarcely diminished by the plague, although
from the number of deaths it was known to
be diminished one third.
Variations of the same kind, though not
in the same degree, appear in the pro])or-
tions of births, deaths and marriages, in all
the tables which Sussmilch has collected ;
and as writers on these subjects have been
too apt to form calculations for past and
future times from the proportions of a few
years, it may be useful to draw the attention
of the reader to a lew more instances of
such variations.
In the churmark of Brandenburgh %
during 15 years, ending with 1712, the
* Sussmilch's Giittliche Ordnung, vol. i. tables, p. 88.
N 2 proportion
180 Effects of Epidemics on Registers of Bk. iL
proportion of births to deaths was nearly
17 to 10. For 6 years, ending with 1718,
the proportion sunk to 13 to 10 ; for 4 years
ending with 1752, it was only 1 1 to 10 ; and
for 4 years, ending with 1736, 12 to 10.
For 3 years, ending with 1759, the deaths
very greatly exceeded the births. The pro-
portion of the births to the whole popula-
tion is not given ; but it is not probable
that the great variations observable in the
proportion of births to deaths should have
arisen solely from the variations in the
deaths. The proportion of births to mar-
riages is tolerably uniform, the extremes
being only 38 to 10 and So to 10, and the
mean about 37 to 10. In this table no
very great epidemics occur till the 3 years
beginning with 1757, and beyond this pe-
riod the lists are not continued.
In the dukedom of Pomerania% the
average proportion of births to deaths for
60 years (from 1694 to 1756 both included)
was 138 to 100 ; but in some of the periods
of six years it was as high as 177 to 100,
and 155 to 100. In others it sunk as low
' Sussmilch, vol.i. tables, p. 91
as
Ch. xii. Births, Deaths, and Marriages. 181
as 124 to 100, and 130 to 100 The ex-
tremes of the proportions of births to mar-
riages in the diflferent periods of 5 and 6
years, were S6 to 10 and 43 to 10, and the
mean of the 60 years about 38 to 10.
Epidemic years appear to liave occurred
occasionally, in three of which the deaths
exceeded the births ; but this temporary
diminution of population produced no cor-
responding diminution of births, and the
two individual years wliich contain the
greatest proportion of marriages in the
whole table occur, one in the year after,
and the other two years after epidemics.
The excess of deaths however was not great
till the three years ending with 1759, with
which the table concludes.
In the Neumark of Brandenburgh * for 60
years, from 1695 to 1756 both included,
the average proportion of births to deaths
in the first 30 years was 148 to 100, in the
last 30 years 127 to 100, in the whole 60
years 136 to 100. In some periods of 5
years it was as high as J 71 and 167 to 100.
In others as low as 118 and 128 to 100.
* Sussraikb's Giirtliche Oidnung, vol. i. tables, p. 99-
For
182 Effects of Epidemics 07i Registers of Bk. ii.
For 5 years ending with 1726, the yearly
average of births was 7012 ; for 5 years
ending with 1746, it was 6927, from which,
judging by the births, we might infer that
the population had decreased in this in-
terval of 20 years ; but it appears from the
average proportion of births and deaths
during this period, that it must have consi-
derably increased, notwithstanding the in-
tervention of some epidemic years. The
proportion of births to the whole popula-
tion must therefore have decidedly changed.
Another interval of 20 years in the same
tables gives a similar result, both with re-
gard to the births and the marriages. The
extremes of the proportion of births to
marriages are 34 to 10 and 42 to 10, and
the mean about 38 to 10. The 3 years
beginning mth 1757, were, as in the other
tables, very fatal years.
In the dukedom of Magdeburgh ^ during
64 years ending with 1756, the average
proportion of births to deaths was 123 to
100 ; in the first 28 years of the period 142
to 100, and in the last 34 years only 112 to
* Sussmilch, vol. i. tables, p. 103.
100:
Ch. xii. Births, Deaths, and Marriages. 183
100 ; during one period of 5 years it was
as high as 170 to 100, and in two periods
the deatlis exceeded the births. Slight
epidemics appear to be interspersed rather
thickly throughout the table. In the two
instances, where three or four occur in suc-
cessive years and diminish the population,
they are followed by an increase of mar-
riages and births. The extremes of the
proportions of births to marriages are 42 to
10 and 34 to 10, and the mean of the 64
years 39 to 10. On this table Sussmilch
remarks, that though the average number
of deaths shews an increased population of
one third from 1715 or 1720, yet the births
and marriages would prove it to be sta-
tionary, or even declining. In drawing
this conclusion however, he adds the three
epidemic years ending with 1759, during
which both the marriages and births seem
to have diminished.
In the principality of Halberstadt% the
average proportion of births to deaths for
68 years, ending with 1756, was 124 to 100;
but in some periods of 5 years it was as
•* Sussmilch, vol. i. tables, p. 108.
hisih
184 Effects of Epidemics on Registers of Bk. ii.
high as 160 to 100, and in others as low as
110 to 100. Tlie increase in the whole 68
years was considerable, and yet for 5 years
ending with 1723, the average number of
births was 2818 ; and for 4 years ending
with 1750, 2628, from which it would ap-
pear that the population in 27 years had
considerably diminished. A similar ap-
pearance occurs with regard to the mar-
riages during a period of 32 years. In
the 5 years ending with 1718, they were
727 ; in the 5 years ending with 1750, 689.
During both these periods the proportion
of deaths would have shewn a considerable
increase. Epidemics seem to have oc-
curred frequently ; and in almost all the
instances, in which they were such as for
the deaths to exceed the births, they were
immediately succeeded by a more than
usual proportion of marriages, and in a few
years by an increased proportion of births.
The greatest number of marriages in the
whole table occurs in the year 1751, after
an epidemic in the year 1750, in which the
deaths had exceeded the births above one
third, and the four or iive following years
contain
Ch. xii. Births, Deaths, and Marriages. 185
contain the largest proportion of births.
The extremes of the proportions of births
to marriages are 42 to 10 and 34 to 10 ; the
mean of the 68 years 38 to 10.
The remaining tables contain similar re-
sults ; but these will be sufficient to shew
the variations which are continually oc-
curring in the proportions of the births and
marriages, as well as of the deaths, to the
whole population.
It will be observed that the least varia-
ble of the proportions is that which the
births and marriages bear to each other ;
and the obvious reason is, that this propor-
tion is principally influenced by the proli-
fickness of marriages, which will not of
course be subject to great changes. We
can hardly indeed suppose, that the proli-
fickness of marriages should vary so much
as the different proportions of births to
marriages in the tables. Nor is it neces-
sary that it should, as another cause will
contribute to produce the same effect.
The births which are contemporary with
the marriages of any particular year, be-
long principally to marriages which had
taken
186 Effects of Epidemics on Registers of Bk. ii.
taken place some years before ; and there-
fore, if for four or five years a large pro-
portion of marriages were to take place,
and then accidentally for one or two years
a small proportion, the effect would be a
large proportion of births to marriages in
the registers during these one or two years;
and on the contrary, if for four or five years
few marriages comparatively were to take
place, and then for one or two years a great
number, the effect would be a small pro-
portion of births to marriages in the regis-
ters. This was strikingly illustrated in the
table for Prussia and Lithuania, and would
be confirmed by an inspection of all the
other tables collected by Sussmilch ; in
which it appears that the extreme propor-
tions of births to marriages are generally
more affected by the number of marriages
than the number of births, and conse-
quently arise more from the variations in
the disposition or encouragement to matri-
mony, than from the variations in the pro-
lifickness of marriages.
The common epidemical years which are
interspersed throughout these tables, will
not
Ch. xii. Births, Deaths, and Marriages. 187
not of course have the same effects on the
marriages and births as the great plague in
the table for Prussia ; but in proportion to
their magnitude, their operation will in
general be found to be similar. From the
registers of many other countries, and par-
ticularly of towns, it appears that the visi-
tations of the plague were frequent at the
latter end of the 17th, and the beginning of
the 18th centuries.
In contemplating the plagues and sickly
seasons which occur in these tables after a
period of rapid increase, it is impossible
not to be impressed with the idea, that the
number of inhabitants had in these in-
stances exceeded the food and the accom-
modations necessary to preserve them in
health. The mass of the people would,
upon this supposition, be obliged to live
worse, and a greater number of them would
be crowded together in one house ; and
these natural causes would evidently con-
tribute to produce sickness, even though
the country, absolutely considered, might
not be crowded and populous. In a coun-
try even thinly inhabited, if an increase of
population
188 Effects of Epidemics on Registers, S^c. Bk. ii.
population take place before more food is
raised, and more houses are built, the inha-
bitants must be distressed for room and
subsistence. If in the Highlands of Scot-
land, for the next ten or twelve years, the
marriages were to be either more frequent
or more prolific, and no emigration were to
take place, instead of five to a cottage, there
might be seven ; and this, added to the ne-
cessity of worse living, would evidently
have a most unfavourable effect on the
health of the common people.
CHAP.
( 189 )
CHAP. XIII.
General Deductions from the preceding Viezv of Society,
1 HAT the checks which have been men-
tioned are the immediate causes of the
slow increase of population, and that these
checks result principally from an insuffi-
ciency of subsistence, will be evident from
the comparatively rapid increase which has
invariably taken place, whenever, by some
sudden enlargement in the means of sub-
sistence, these checks have in any con-
siderable degree been removed.
It has been universally remarked that
all new colonies settled in healthy countries,
where room and food were abundant, have
constantly made a rapid progress in popu-
lation. Many of the colonies from ancient
Greece, in the course of one or two cen-
turies, appear to have rivalled, and even
surpassed, their mother cities. Syracuse
and Agrigentum in Sicily ; Tarentum and
Locri
190 General Deductions from the Bk. if.
Locri in Italy ; Ephesus and Miletus in
Lesser Asia ; were, by all accounts, at least
equal to any of the cities of ancient Greece.
All these colonies had established them-
selves in countries inhabited by savage and
barbarous nations, which easily gave place
to the new settlers, who had of course
plenty of good land. It is calculated that
the Israelites, though they increased very
slowly w^hile they were wandering in the
land of Canaan, on settling in a fertile dis-
trict of Egypt, doubled their numbers every
fifteen years during the whole period of
their stay ^. But not to dwell on remote
instances, the European settlements in Ame-
rica bear ample testimony to the truth of
a remark,, that has never I believe been
doubted. Plenty of rich land to be had
for little or nothing, is so powerful a cause
of population, as generally to overcome all
obstacles.
No settlements could easily have been
worse managed than those of Spain, in
Mexico, Peru, and Quito. The tyranny,
* Short's New Observ. on Bills of Mortality, p. 259,
8vo. 1750.
superstition
Cii. xiii. preceding Viao of Societi/, 191
superstition and vices of the mother coun-
try were introduced in ample quantities
among her children. Exorbitant taxes
were exacted by the crown ; the most ar-
bitrary restrictions were imposed on their
trade ; and the governors were not behind
hand in rapacity and extortion for them-
selves as well as their master. Yet under
all these difficulties, the colonies made a
quick progress in population. The city of
Quito, which was but a hamlet of Indians,
is represented by Ulloa as containing fifty
or sixty thousand inhabitants above fifty
years ago". Lima, which was founded
since the conquest, is mentioned by the
same author as equally or more populous,
before the fatal earthquake in 1746. Mexico
is said to contain a hundred thousand in-
habitants ; which, notwithstanding the ex-
aggerations of the Spanish writers, is sup-
posed to be five times greater than what il
contained in the time of Montezuma ^.
In the Portuguese colony of Brazil, go-
verned with almost equal tyranny, there
' Voy. d'Ulloa, torn. i.Iiv. v.ch. v. p. 229, 4to. 1752.
'' Smith's Wealtli of Nations, vol. ii. b. iv. ch. viii. p. 363.
were
192 General Deductions from the Bk. ii.
were supposed to be above thirty years
ago six hundred thousand inhabitants of
European extraction ^.
The Dutch and French colonies, though
under the government of exclusive compa-
nies of merchants, still persisted in thriving
under every disadvantage ^.
But the English North-American colo-
nies, now the powerful people of the United
States of America, far outstripped all the
others in the progress of their population.
To the quantity of rich land which they
possessed in common with the Spanish and
Portuguese colonies, they added a greater
degree of liberty and equahty. Though
not without som.e restrictions on their fo-
reign commerce, they were allowed the
liberty of managing their own internal
affairs. The political institutions which
prevailed were favourable to the alienation
and division of property. Lands which
were not cultivated by the proprietor within
a linnted time, Avere declared grantable to
any other person. In Pennsylvania there
* Smith's Wealth of Nations^ vol. ii. b. iv. ch. viii. p. SQ5.
' Id. p. 368, 369.
wa&
Ch. xiii. p7'eced'nig Viexv of Society. 193
was no right of primogeniture ; and in the
provinces of New England, the eldest son
had only a double share. There were no
tithes in any of the States, and scarcely an^
taxes. And on account of the extreme
cheajjness of good land, a capital could not
be more advantageously employed than in
agriculture ; which, at the same time that it
affords the greatest quantity of healthy work,
supplies the most valuable produce to the
society.
The consequence of these favourable cir-
cumstances united, was a rapidity of in-
crease almost without parallel in history.
Throughout all the northern provinces the
population was found to double itself in
25 years. The original number of persons
which had settled in the four provinces of
New England in 1643, was 21,200. After-
wards it was calculated that more left them
than went to them. In the year J 760 they
were increased to half a million. They had
therefore, all along doubled their number
in 25 years. In New Jersey the period of
doubling appeared to be 22 years, and in
Rhode Island still less. In the back scltlc-
TOL. II. o ments
194 General Deductions from the Bk. ii.
ments, where the inhabitants applied them-
selves solely to agriculture, and luxury was
not known, they were supposed to double
their number in fifteen years. Along the
sea-coast, which would naturally be first in-
habited, the period of doubling was about
35 3^ears. and in some of the maritime
towns the population was absolutely at a
stand ^. From the late census made in
America,
* Price's Observ. on Revers. Paym. vol. i. p. 282, 283,
and vol. ii. p. 260. I have lately had an opportunity of
seeing some extracts from the sermon of Dr. Styles, from
which Dr. Price has taken these facts. Speaking of
Rhode Island, Dr. Styles says that, though the period of
doubling for the whole colony is 25 years, yet that it is
different in different parts, and within land is 20 and 1 5
years. The population of the five towns of Gloucester,
Situate, Coventry, West Greenwich and Exeter, was 5033,
A. D. 1748 and 6986, A. D. 1755 ; which implies a pe-
riod of doubling of 15 years only. He mentions after-
wards, that the county of Kent doubles in 20 years, and
the county of Providence in 18 years.
I have also lately seen a paper of Facts and Calcula-
tions respecting the Popidation of the United States, yi\\\ch
makes the period of doubling for the whole of the States,
since their first settlement, only 20 years. I know not
of what authority this paper is ; but, as far as it goes upon
public facts and enumerations, I should think that it must
be to be depended upon. One period is very striking.
From
Ch. xiii. preceding View of Society. 195
America, it appears that, taking all the
States together, they have still continued
to double their numbers every 25 years;
and as the whole population is now so great
as not to be materially affected by the
emigrations from Europe, and as it is known
that, in some of the towns and districts near
the sea-coast, the progress of population has
been comparatively slow ; it is evident,
that in the interior of the country in ge-
neral, the period of doubling from procre-
ation only must have been considerably less
than 25 years.
From a return to Congress in 17B2, the population ap-
peared to be 2,389,300, and in the census of 1790
4,000,000; increase in 9 years, 1,610,700; from which
deduct ten thousand per annum for European settlers,
which will be 90,000 ; and allow for their increase at
5 per cent for 4| years, which will be 20,250; the re-
mainhig increase during tliose 9 years, from procreation
only, will be 1,500,450, \\hich is nearly 7 per cent.; and
consequently the period of doubling at this rate would be
less than l6 years.
If this calculation for the whole population of the States
be in any degree near the truth, it cannot be doubted, that
in particular districts the period of doubling from procre-
ation only has oflen been less than 15 years. Tlic period
immediately succeeding the war was likely to be a period
of very rapid increase.
o 2 The
196 General Deductions from the Bk. ii^
The population of the United States of
America, according to the late census, is
5,172,312 ^ We have no reason to believe
that Great Britain is less populous at pre-
sent, for the emigration of the small parent
stock which produced these numbers. On
the contrary, a certain degree of emigra-
tion is known to be favourable to the po-
pulation of the mother country. It has been
particularly remarked that the two Spanish
provinces, from which the greatest number
of people emigrated to America, became in
consequence more populous.
Whatever was the original number of
British emigrants which increased so fast in
North America, let us ask, Why does not
an equal number produce an equal increase
in the same time in Great Britain? The
obvious reason to be assigned is the want
of food ; and that this want is the most ef-
ficient cause of the three immediate checks
^ One small State is mentioned as being omitted in the
census ; and I understand that the population is generally
considered as above this number. It is said to approach
towards 6,000;000. But such vague opinions cannot
be much relied on.
t©
Ch. xiii. preceding View of Sociely. 197
to population, which have been observed
to prevail in all societies, is evident from
the rapitlity witli which even old states re-
cover the desolations of war, pestilence, fa-
mine and the convulsions of nature. They
are then for a short time placed a little in
the situation of new colonies ; and the ef-
fect is always answerable to what might be
expected. If the industry of the inha-
bitants be not destroyed, subsistence will
soon increase be3'ond the wants of the re-
duced numbers ; and the invariable con-
sequence will be, that j^opulation, which
before perhaps was nearly stationary, will
begin inmiediately to increase, and will
continue its progress till the former popu-
lation is recovered.
The fertile province of Flanders, which
has been so often the seat of the most de-
structive wars, after a respite of a few years
has always appeared as rich and populous
as ever. The undiminished po})ulati()n of
France, which has before been noticed, is
an instance very strongly in point. The
tables of Sussmilch afford continual proofs
of a very rapid increase aller great mortali-
ties :
198 General Deductions from the Bk. ii.
ties ; and the table for Prussia and Li-
thuania, which 1 have inserted *, is parti-
cularly striking in this respect. The effects
of the dreadful plague in London, in lf?66,
were not perceptible 15 or 20 years after-
wards. It may even be doubted whether
Turkey and Egypt are upon an average
much less populous for the plagues which
periodically lay them waste. If the number
of people which they contain be considerably
less now than formerly, it is rather to be
attributed to the tyranny and oppression of
the governments under which they groan,
and the consequent discouragements to
agriculture, than to the losses which they
sustain by the plague. The traces of the
most destructive famines in China, In-
dostan, Eg3^pt, and other countries, are by
all accounts very soon obliterated ; and the
most tremendous convulsions of nature, such
as volcanic eruptions and earthquakes, if
they do not happen so frequentl^'^ as to drive
away the inhabitants or destroy their spirit
of industry, have been found to produce
• See p. 5S8 of this voi.
but
Ch. xiii. preceding View of Society. 199
but a triding effect on the average popu-
Jation of any state.
It has appeared from the registers of dif-
ferent countries, which have ahead}' been
produced, tliat the progress of their popu-
lation is checked by the periodical, though
irregular, returns of plagues and sickly sea-
sons. Dr. Short, in his curious researches
into bills of mortality, often uses the ex-
pression of " terrible correctives of the re-
dundance of mankind '^ '" and in a table of
all the plagues, pestilences and famines, of
which he could collect accounts, shews the
constancy and universality of their ope-
ration.
The epidemical years in his table, or the
years in which the plague or some great
and wasting epidemic prevailed, (for smaller
sickly seasons seem not to be includtxl,) are
431 \ of which 32 were before the Christian
aera '. If we divide therefore the years of
the present aera by S99, it will appear, that
the periodical returns of such epidemics, to
* New Observ. on Bills of Mortality, p. 96.
" Hist, of Air, Seasons, 8tc., vol. ii. p. 366.
' Id. vol. ii p. 202.
some
200 Genej^al Deductions from the Bk, ii-
some countries that we are acquainted with,
have been on an average only at the in-
terval of about 4i years.
Of the 354 great famines and dearths
enumerated in the table, 15 were before the
Christian aera ^, beginning with that which oc-
curred in Palestine, in the time of Abraham.
If, subtracting these 15, we divide the years
of the present sera by the remainder, it will
appear that the average interval between
the visits of this dreadful scourge has been
only about 1\ years.
How far these " terrible correctives to
" the redundance of mankind" have been
occasioned by the too rapid increase of po-
pulation, is a point which it would be very
difficult to determine with any degree of
precision. The causes of most of our dis-
eases appear to us to be so mysterious, and
probably are really so various, that it would
be rashness to lay too much stress on any
single one ; but it will not perhaps be too
much to say, that among these causes we
ought certainly to rank crowded houses
and insufficient or unwholesome food, which
• Hist, of Air, Seasons, &c., vol. ii. p. 206.
are
Ch. xiii. preceding View of Society. 201
are the natural consequences of an increase
of population faster than the accommoda-
tions of a country with respect to habita-
tions and food will allow.
Almost all the histories of epidemics,
which we possess, tend to confirm this sup-
position, by describing them in general as
making their principal ravages among the
lower classes of people. In Dr. Short's
tables this circumstance is frequently men-
tioned ^ ; and it further appears that a very
considerable proportion of the epidemic
years were either followed or were accom-
panied by seasons of dearth and bad food ^.
In other places he also mentions great
plagues as diminishing particularly the
numbers of the lower or servile sort of
people *" ; and in speaking of different dis-
eases he observes that those which are oc-
casioned by bad and unwholesome food,
generally last the longest ^,
We know from constant experience, that
* Hist, of Air, Seasons, &.c., vol. ii. p. C06. et. seq.
*" Id. vol. ii. p. 206. et seq. and oSQ.
" New Obseiv. p. 125.
* Id. p. 108.
fevers
202 General Deductions from the Bk. ii.
fevers are generated in our jails, our ma-
nufactories, our crowded workhouses and
in the narrow and close streets of our large
towns; all which situations appear to be
similar in their effects to squalid poverty ;
and we cannot doubt that causes of this
kind, aggravated in degree, contributed to
the production and prevalence of those
great and wasting plagues formerly so com-
mon in Europe, but which now, from the
mitigation of these causes, are every where
considerably abated, and in many places
appear to be completely extirpated.
Of the other great scourge of mankind,
famine, it may be observed that it is not
in the nature of things, that the increase of
population should absolutely produce one.
This increase, though rapid, is necessarily
gradual ; and as the human frame cannot
be supported, even for a very short time,
without food, it is evident, that no more
human beings can grow up than there
is provision to maintain. But though the
principle of population cannot absolutely
produce a famine, it prepares the way for
one in the most complete manner ; and by
obliging
Ch. xiii. preceditig View of Society . 20S
obliging all the lower classes of people to
subsist nearly on the smallest quantity of
food that will support life, turns even a
slight deficiency from the failure of the
seasons into a severe dearth ; and may be
fairly said therefore, to be one of the prin-
cipal causes of famine. Among the signs
of an approaching dearth. Dr. Short men-
tions one or more years of luxuriant crops
together '* ; and this observation is probably
just, as we know that the general effect of
years of cheapness and abundance is to dis-
pose a great number of persons to marry ;
and under such circumstances the return to
a year merely of an average crop might
produce a scarcity.
The small-pox, which at present may be
Considered as the most prevalent and fatal
epidemic in Europe, is of all others, per-
haps, the most difficult to account for,
though the periods of its returns are in
many places regular ^. Dr. Short observes,
that from the histories of this disorder it
seems to have very little dependence upon
• Hist, of Air, Seasons, &c. vol. ii. p. 367.
' Id. vol. ii. p. 411.
the
204 General Deductions from the Bk. ii.
the past or present constitution of the
weather or seasons, and that it appears
epidemically at all times and in all states of
the air, though not so frequently in a hard
frost. We know of no instances, I believe
of its being clearly generated under any
nrcumstances of situation. I do not mean
therefore to insinuate that poverty and
crowded houses ever absolutely produced
it ; but I may be allowed to remark, that
in those places where its returns are regular,
and its ravages among children, particu-
larly among those of die lower class, are
considerable, it necessarily follows that
these circumstances, in a greater degree
than usual, must always precede and ac-
company its appearance; that is, from the
time of its last visit, the average number of
children will be increasing, the people will,
in consequence, be growing poorer, and
the houses will be more crowded till another
visit removes this superabundant popu-
lation.
In all these cases, how little soever force
we may be disposed to attribute to the ef-
fects of the principle of population in the
actual
Cli. xiii. preceding View of Society . 205
actual production of disorders, we cannot
avoid allowing their force as predisposing
causes to the reception of contagion, and
as giving very great additional force to the
extensiveness and fatality of its ravages.
It is observed by Dr. Short that a severe
mortal epidemic is generally succeeded by
an uncommon healthiness, from the late
distemper having carried off most of the
declining and worn-out constitutions ^. It is
probable, also, that another cause of it may
be the greater plenty of room and food,
and the consequently meliorated condition
of the lower classes of the people. Some-
times, according to Dr. Short, a very fruit-
ful year is followed by a very mortal and
sickly one, and mortal ones often suc-
ceeded by very fruitful, as if Nature sought
either to prevent or quickly repair the loss
by death. In general the next year after
sickly and mortal ones is prolific in pro-
portion to the breeders left ''.
This last effect we have seen most
strikingly exemplified in the table for
' Hist, of Air, Seasons, 8cc. vol. ii. p. 344.
^ New Observ. p. 191-
Prussia
206 General Deductions from the Bk. ii.
Prussia and Lithuania*. And from this
and other tables of Sussmilch, it also ap-
pears that, when the increasing produce of
a country and the increasing demand for
labour, so far meliorate the condition of the
labourer as greatly to encourage marriage,
the custom of early marriages is generally
continued, till the population has gone be-
yond the increased produce, and sickly
seasons appear to be the natural and ne-
cessary consequence. The continental re-
gisters exhibit many instances of rapid in-
crease, interrupted in this manner by mor-
tal diseases ; and the inference seems to be,
that those countries where subsistence is
increasing sufficiently to encourage popu-
lation, but not to answer all its demands,
will be more subject to periodical epi-
demics, than those where the increase of
population is more nearly accommodated
to the average produce.
The converse of this will of course be
true. In those countries which are subject
to periodical sicknesses, the increase of
population, or the excess of births above
* New Observ. p. 538 of this vol.
the
Ch. xiii. preceding View of Society. 207
the deaths, will be greater in the intervals
of these periods than is usual in countries
not so much subject to these diseases.
If Turkey and Egypt have been nearly
stationary in their average population
for the last century, in the intervals of
their periodical plagaes, the births must
have exceeded the deaths in a much greater
proportion than in such countries as France
and England.
It is for these reasons that no estimates of
future population or depopulation, formed
from any existing rate of increase or de-
crease, can be depended upon. Sir Wil-
liam Petty calculated that in the year
1800 the city of London would contain
5,359,000 "" inhabitants, instead of which it
does not now contain a fifth part of that
number. And Mr. Eaton has lately pro-
phesied the extinction of the population of
the Turkish empire in another century *•, an
event which will certainly fail of taking
place. If America were to continue in-
creasing at the same rate as at present fbi"
* Political Arithmetic, p. 17-
* Survey of the Turkish Empire, c. vii. p. 281.
the
208 General Deductions from the Bk. ii.
the next 150 years, her population would
exceed the population of China ; but though
prophecies are dangerous, I will venture to
say th t such an increase will not take
place in that time, though it may perhaps
in five or six hundred years.
Europe was without doubt formerly more
subject to plagues and wasting epidemics
than at present ; and this will account, in a
great measure, for the greater proportion
of births to deaths in former times, men-
tioned by many authors ; as it has always
been a common practice to estimate these
proportions from too short periods, and
generally to reject the years of plague as
accidental.
The average proportion of births to
deaths in England may be considered as
about 12 to 10, or 120 to 100. The pro-
portion in France for ten years, ending in
1780, was about 115 to 100 ^ Though
these proportions have undoubtedly varied
at different periods during the last century,
yet wx have reason to think that they have
•* Necker de 1' Administration des Finances, torn. i. c. ix,
p. 255.
not
Ch. xiii. preceding Viexv of Society. 209
iiot varied in any very considerable degree;
and it will appear therefore, that the popu-
lation of France and England has accom-
modated itself more nearly to the average
produce of each country than many other
states. The operation of the preventive
check — wars — the silent though certain de-
struction of life in large towns and manu-
factories— and the close habitations and in-
sufficient food of many of the poor — pre-
vent population from outi'unning the means
of subsistence ; and, if I may use an ex-
pression, which certainly at first appears
strange, supersede the necessity of great
and ravaging epidemics to destroy what is
redundant. If a wasting plague were to
sweep off two milhons in England, and
six millions in France, it cannot be doubted
that, after the inhabitants had recovered
from the dreadful shock, the proportion of
births to deaths would rise much above the
usual average in either country during the
last century.
In New Jersey the proportion of births
to deaths, on an average of 7 years, ending
with 1743, was 300 to 100. In France and
VOL. Ti. p England
210 General Deductiojis from the Bk. ii.
England the average proportion cannot
be reckoned at more than 120 to 100.
Great and astonishing as this difference is,
we ought not to be so wonder-struck at it,
as to attribute it to the miraculous interpo-
sition of Heaven, The causes of it are not
remote, latent and mysterious, 'out near us,
round about us, and open to the investiga-
tion of every inquiring mind. It accords
with the most liberal spirit of philosophy
to believe that no stone can fall, or plant
rise, without the immediate agenc}' of di-
vine power. But we know from expe-
rience, that these operations of what we call
nature have been conducted almost inva-
riably according to fixed laws. And since
the world began, the causes of population
and depopulation have been probably as
constant as any of the laws of nature with
which we are acquainted.
The passion between the sexes has ap-
peared m every age to be so nearly the
same, that it may always be considered, in
algebraic language, as a given quantity.
The great law of necessity, which prevents
population from increasing in any country
beyond
Cli. xiii. preceding Vitrv of Society. 211
beyond the food which it can either pro-
duce or acquire, is a law so open to our
view, so obvious and evident to our under-
standings, that we cannot for a moment
doubt it. The different modes which na-
ture takes to repress a redundant popula-
tion, do not appear indeed to us so certain
and regular ; but though we cannot always
predict the mode, we may with certainty
predict the fact. If the proportion of the
births to the deaths for a few years indi-
cates an increase of numbers much bej^ond
the proportional increased or acquired food
of the country, we may be perfectly cer-
tain that, unless an, emigration take place,
the deaths will shortly exceed the births,
and that the increase which had been ob-
served for a few^ years cannot be the real
average increase of the population of the
country. If there were no other depopu-
lating causes, and if the preventive check
did not operate very strongly, every coun-
try would without doubt be subject to pe-
riodical plagues and famines.
The only true criterion of a real and
permanent increase in the population of
p 2 any
212 Gtntral Deductions from the Bk. ii.
any country, is the increase of the means
of subsistence. But even this criterion is
subject to some shght variations, which
however are completely open to our ob-
servation. In some countries population
seems to have been forced ; that is, the
people have been habituated by degrees
to live almost upon the smallest possible
quantity of food. There must have been
periods in such countries, when population
increased permanently without an increase
in the means of subsistence. China, India
and the countries possessed by the Be-
doween Arabs, as we have seen in the former
part of this work, appear to answer to this
description. The average produce of these
countries seems to be but barely sufficient
to support the lives of the inhabitants, and
of course any deficiency from the badness
of the seasons must be fatal. Nations in
this state must necessarily be subject to
famines.
In America, where the reward of labour
is at present so liberal, the lower classes
might retrench very considerably in a year
of scarcity, without materially distressing
themselves
Ch. xiii. preceding Vierv of Society. 213
themselves. A fiiiiiine therefore seems to
be almost impossible. It may be expected,
that in the progress of the population of
America, the labourers will in time be much
less liberally rewarded. The numbers will
in this case permanently increase, without
a proportional increase in the means of
subsistence.
In the different countries of Europe
there must be some variations in the pro-
portion of the number of inhabitants and
the (piantity of food consumed, arising
from the different habits of living which
prevail in each state. The labourers of
the south of England are so accustomed to
eat fine wheaten bread, that they will sut-
fert hemselves to be half starved before
they will submit to live like the Scotch
peasants.
They might perhaps, in time, by the
constant operation of the hard law of ne-
cessity, be reduced to live even li'ke the
lower classes of the Chinese, and the coun-
try would then with the same quantity of
food support a greater population. But
to effect this must always be a difficult,
and
214 General Deductions from the Bk. ii\
and every friend to humanity will hope, an
abortive attempt.
I have mentioned some cases where po-
pulation may permanently increase without
a proportional increase in the means of
subsistence. But it is evident that the
variation in different states between the
food and the numbers supported by it is
restricted to a limit beyond which it cannot
pass. In every country, the population of
which is not absolutely decreasing, the food
must be necessarily sufficient to support
and continue the race of labourers.
Other circumstances being the same, it
may be affirmed that countries are popu-
lous according to the quantity of human
food which they pjoduce or can acquire ;
and happy, according to the liberality with
which this food is divided, or the quantity
which a day^s labour will purchase. Corn
countries are more populous than pasture
countries, and rice countries more popu-
lous than corn countries. But their hap-
piness does not depend either upon their
being thinly or fully inhabited, upon their
poverty or their riches, their youth or their
age;
Ch. xiii. preceding Vieiv of Society. 215
age ; but on the proportion which the po-
pulation and the food bear to each other.
This proportion is generally the most fa-
vourable in new colonies, where the know-
ledge and industry of an old state operate
on the fertile unappropriated land of a new
one. In other cases the youth or the age
of a state is not, in this respect, of great
importance. It is probable that the food
of Great Britain is divided in more liberal
shares to her inhabitants at the present pe-
riod, than it was two thousand, three thou-
sand or four thousand years ago. And it
has appeared that the poor and thinly-in-
habited tracts of the Scotch Highlands are
more distressed by a redundant population
than the most populous parts of Europe.
If a country were never to be overrun by
a people more advanced in arts, but left to
its OAvn natural progress in civilization ;
from the time that its produce might be
considered as an unit, to the time that it
might be considered as a million, during
the lapse of many thousand years, there
would not be a single period when the mass
of the people could be said to be free from
distress,
216 ' General Deductions from the Bk. ii
distress, either directly or indirectly, for
want of food. In every state in Europe,
since we have first had accounts of it,
milHons and milUons of human existencies
have been repressed from this simple cause,
though perhaps in some of these states
an absolute famine may never have been
known.
Must it not then be acknowledged by an
attentive examiner of the histories of man«
kind, that, in every age and in every state
in which man has existed or does now exist.
The increase of population is necessarily
hmited by the means of subsistence :
Population invariabl}^ increases when the
means of subsistence increase *, unless pre-
vented by powerful and obvious checks :
These checks, and the checks which keep
the population down to the level of the
means of subsistence, are moral restraint,
vice, and misery ?
In comparing the state of society which
* By an increase in the means of subsistence, as the
expression is used here, is always meant such an increase
as the mass of the population can command ; otherwise
it can be of no avail in encouraging an increase of people.
has
Ch. xiii. preceding Vieiv of Society. 217
has been considered in this second book
with that which formed the subject of the
first, I think it appears that in modem
Europe the positive checks to poi)ulation
prevail less, and the preventive checks
more than in past times, and in the more
uncivilized parts of the world.
War, the predominant check to the po-
pulation of savage nations, has certainly
abated, even including the late unhappy
revolutionary contests ; and since the pre-
valence of a greater degree of personal
cleanliness, of better modes of clearing and
building towns, and of a more equable dis-
tribution of the products of the soil from
improving knowledge in political eco-
nomy, plagues, violent diseases and fa-
mines have been certainly mitigated, and
have become less frequent.
With regard to the preventive check to
population, though it must be acknow-
ledged that that branch of it which comes
under the head of moral restraint", does not
at present prevail much among the male
' The reader will recollect the confined sense in which
I use this term.
part
•218 General Deductions from the, fy. Bk. ii.
part of society ; yet I am strongly disposed
to believe that it prevails more than in those
states which were first considered ; and it
can scarcely be doubted that in modern
Europe a much larger proportion of women
pass a considerable part of their lives in
the exercise of this virtue, than in past
times and among uncivilized nations. But
however this may be, if we consider only
the general term which implies principally
a delay of the marriage union from pru-
dential considerations, without reference to
consequences, it may be considered in this
light as the most powerful of the checks,
which in modern Europe keep down the
population to the level of the means of sub-
sistence.
ESSAY.
E S SAY,
4'C. SfC.
BOOK III.
OF THE DIFFERENT SYSTEMS OR EXPEDIENTS
WHICH HAVE BEEN PROPOSED OR HAVE PRE-
VAILED IN SOCIETY, AS THEY AFFECT THE
EVILS ARISING FROM THE PRINCIPLE OF
POPULATION.
CHAP. I.
Of Si/stems of Equality. Wallace. Condorcet.
1 O a person who views the past and pre-
sent states of mankind in the Hght in which
they have appeared in the two preceding
books, it cannot but be a matter of asto-
nishment, that all the writers on the per-
fectibility of man and of society, who have
noticed the argument of the principle of
population, treat it always very lightly,
and
220 Systems of Equalitij. Bk. iii.
and invariably represent the difficulties
arising from it as at a great and almost im-
measurable distance. Even Mr. Wallace,
who thought the argument itself of so much
weight as to destroy his whole system of
equality, did not seem to be aware that
any difficulty would arise from this cause,
till the whole earth had been cultivated
like a garden, and was incapable of any
further increase of produce. If this were
really the case, and a beautiful system of
equality were in other respects practicable, I
cannot think that our ardour in the pursuit
of such a scheme ought to be damped by
the contemplation of so remote a difficulty.
An event at such a distance might fairly be
left to Providence. But the truth is, that, if
the view of the argument given in this essay
be just, the difficulty, so far from being
remote, is imminent and immediate. At
every period during the progress of culti-
vation, from the present moment to the
time when the whole earth was become like
a garden, the distress for want of food
would be constantly pressing on all man-
kind, if they were equal. Though the pro-
duce
Ch. i. TVallace. Comlorcet. 221
duce of the earth would be increasing
every year, population would have the
power of increasing much faster, and this
superior power must necessarily be checked
by the periodical or constant action of
moral restraint, vice, or misery.
M. Condorcet's Esqiiisse d'un Tableau His-
torique des Progres de rEsprit Humain was
written, it is said, under the pressure of
that cruel proscription which terminated in
his death. If he had no hopes of its being
seen during his life, and of its interesting
France in his favour, it is a singular in-
stance of the attachment of a man to prin-
ciples, which every day's experience was
so fatally for himself contradicting. To see
the human mind in one of the most en-
lightened nations of the world, debased by
such a fermentation of disgusting passions,
of fear, cruelty, malice, revenge, ambition,
madness and folly, as would have disgraced
the most savage nations in the most barba-
rous age, must have been such a tremendous
shock to his ideas of the necessary and in-
evitable progress of the human mind, as
nothing but the firmest conviction of the
truth
222 Systems of Equality. Bk. iii.
truth of his principles, in spite of all ap-
pearances, could have withstood.
This posthumous pubhcation is only a
sketch of a much larger work, which he
proposed should be executed. It necessa-
rily wants therefore that detail and apph-
cation, which can alone prove the truth of
any theor}^ A few observations will be
sufficient to shew how completely this
theory is contradicted, when it is applied
to the real, and not to an imaginary, state
of things.
In the last division of the work, which
treats of the future progress of man tow^ards
perfection, M. Condorcet says that, com-
paring in the different civilized nations of
Europe the actual population with the ex-
tent of territory, and observing their cul-
tivation, their industry, their divisions of
labour, and their means of subsistence, we
shall see that it would be impossible to
preserve the same means of subsistence,
and consequently the same population,
without a number of individuals who have
no other means of supplying their wants
than their industry.
Having
Ch. i. Wallace. Condorcct. 223
Having allowed the necessity of such a
class of men, and adverting afterwards to
the precarious revenue of those families
that would depend so entirely on the life
and health of their chief", he says very
justly, " There exists then a necessary
" cause of inequality, of dependence, and
" even of misery, which menaces without
" ceasing the most numerous and active
" class of our societies/' The difficulty
is just and well stated; but his mode of
removing it will, I fear, be found totally
inefficacious.
By the application of calculations to the
probabilities of life, and the interest of
money, he proposes that a fund should be
established, which should assure to the old
an assistance produced in part by their own
former savings, and in part by the savings
of individuals; who in making the same
sacrifice die before they reap the benefit of
' To save time and long quotations, I shall here give
the substance of some of M. Condorcet's sentiments, and
I hope that I shall not misrepresent them; but I refer
tlie reader to the work itself, which will amuse, if it do
not convince him.
it.
224 Systems of Equality. Bk. iii.
it. The same or a similar fund should give
assistance to women and children who lose
their husbands or fathers ; and afford a ca-
pital to those who were of an age to found
a new family, sufficient for the develope-
ment of their industry. These establish-
ments, he observes, might be made in the
name and under the protection of the so-
ciety. Going still further, he says, that by
the just application of calculations, means
might be found of more completely pre-
semng a state of equality, by preventing
credit from being the exclusive privilege of
great fortunes, and yet giving it a basis
equally solid, and by rendering the pro-
gress of industry and the activity of com-
merce less dependent on great capitalists.
Such establishments and calculations
may appear very promising upon paper;
but when applied to real life, they will be
found to be absolutely nugatory. M. Con-
dorcet allows that a class of people which
maintains itself entirely by industry, is ne-
cessary to every state. Why does he allow
this? No other reason can well be assigned,
than because he conceives, that the labour
necessar}^
Ch. i. JVallace. Condorcet. 225
necessary to procure subsistence for an ex-
tended population will not be performed
without the goad of necessity. If by esta-
blishments upon the plans that have been
mentioned this spur to industry be removed ;
if the idle and negligent be placed upon
the same footino- with resjard to their credit
and the future support of their wives and
families, as the active and industrious; can
we expect to see men exert that animated
activity in bettering their condition, which
now forms the master-spring of public pro-
sperity ? If an inquisition were to be esta-
blished to examine the claims of each indi-
vidual, and to determine whether he had
or had not exerted himself to the utmost,
and to grant or refuse assistance accordingly,
this would be little else than a repetition
upon a larger scale of the Enghsh poor-
laws, and would be completely destructive
of the true principles of liberty and equality.
But independently of this great objection
to these establishments, and supposing for
a moment that they would give no check
to production, the greatest difficulty re-
mains yet behind.
VOL. I J. Q Were
226 Systems of Equality. Bk. iii.
If every man were sure of a comfortable
provision for a family, almost every man
would have one ; and if the rising generation
were free from the fear of poverty, popu-
lation must increase with unusual rapidity.
Of this M. Condorcet seems to be fully
aware himself; and after having described
further improvements, he says,
"But in this progress of industry
" and happiness, each generation will be
" called to more extended enjoyments, and
'^ in consequence, by the physical consti-
" tution of the human frame, to an in-
" crease in the number of individuals.
" Must not a period then arrive when these
" laws, equally necessary, shall counter-
" act each other ; when, the increase of
" the number of men surpassing their means
" of subsistence, the necessary result must
" be, either a continual diminution of hap-
" piness and population — a movement
" truly retrograde ; or at least a kind of
" oscillation between good and evil ? In
" societies arrived at this term, will not this
" oscillation be a constantly subsisting
" cause of periodical misery ? Will it not
" mark
Ch. i. rVallace. Condorcet. 227
*' mark the limit, when all further ineliora-
*' tion will beeoinc impossible, and point
** out that term to the perfectibility of the
*' human race, which it may reach in the
" course of ages, but can never pass?"
" He then adds,
" There is no person who does not see
" how very distant such a ])eriod is from
" us. But shall we ever arrive at it ? It
" is equally impossible to pronounce for or
" against the future realization of an event,
" which cannot take place but at an i\?ra,
" when the human race will have attained
" improvements, of which we can at pre-
" sent scarcely form a conception."
M. Condorcet's picture of Avhat may be
expected to happen, when the number of
men shall surpass their means of subsist-
ence, is justly drawn. The oscillation
which he describes will certainly take place,
and Avill without doubt be a constantly sub-
sisting cause of periodical misery. The
only point in which I dift'er from M. Con-
dorcet in this description is with regard to
the period when it may be applied to the
human race. M. Condorcet thinks that
o 'i It
228 Systems of Equality. Bk. iii.
it cannot possibly be applicable but at an
sera extremely distant. If the proportion
between the natural increase of population
and food which was stated m the beginning
of this essay, and which has received con-
siderable confirmation from the poverty
that has been found to prevail in every
stage of human society, be in any degree
near the truth ; it will appear, on the con-
trar}^ that the period when the number of
men surpasses their means of easy subsist-
ence has long since arrived ; and that this
necessary oscillation, this constantly sub-
sisting cause of periodical misery, has ex-
isted in most countries ever since we have
had an 3^ histories of mankind, and conti-
nues to exist at the present moment.
]\I. Condorcet, however, goes on to say?
that should the period which he conceives
to be so distant, ever arrive, the human
race, and the advocates of the perfectibihty
of man, need not be alarmed at it. He
then proceeds to remove the difficult}^ in a
manner which I profess not to understand.
Having observed that the ridiculous pre-
judices of superstition would by that time
have
Cli. i. Wallace. Condorcet. 229
have ceased to throw over morals a corrupt
and degrading austerity, he alludes either
to a promiscuous concubinage which would
prevent breeding, or to something else as
unnatural. 'I'o remove the difficulty in this
way will surely, in the opinion of most
men, be to destroy that virtue and purity
of manners, which the advocates of equality
and of the perfectibility of man profess to
be the end and object of their views.
The last question which M. Condorcet
proposes for examination is the organic
perfectibility of man. He observes, if the
proofs which have been already given, and
which, in their dcvelopement, will receive
greater force in the work itself, are suffi-
cient to establish the indefinite perfectibi-
lity of man, upon the supposition of the
same natural faculties and the same orga-
nization which he has at present; what will
be the certainty, what the extent of our
hopes, if this organization, these natural
faculties themselves, be susceptible of me-
lioration ?
From the improvementof medicine; from
the use of more wholesome food and habi-
tations :
230 Systems of Equality. Bk. iii.
tations ; from a manner of living, which
will improve the strength of the body by
exercise, without impairing it by excess ;
from the destruction of the two great causes
of the degradation of man, misery and too
great riches ; fi'om the gradual removal of
transmissible and contagious disorders by
the improvement of physical knowledge,
rendered more efiicacious by the progress
of reason and of social order; he infers,
that though man will not absolutely become
immortal, yet the duration between his
birth and natural death will increase with-
out ceasing, will have no assignable term,
and may properly be expressed by the
word indefinite. He then defines this word
to mean either a constant approach to an
unlimited extent without ever reaching it ;
or an increase in the immensity of ages
to an extent greater than any assignable
quantity.
But surely the application of this term
in either of these senses to the duration of
human life is in the highest degree unphilo-
sophical, and totally unwarranted by any
appearances in the laws of nature. Varia-
tions
Ch. i. JVallacc. Condorcet. 231
tioiis from different causes are essentially
distinct from a rej^ular and unretrogade in-
crease. The average duration of human
life will to a certain degree vary from healthy
or unhealthy climates, from wholesome or
unwholesome food, from virtuous or vicious
manners and other causes ; but it may be
fairly doubted whether there has been really
the smallest perceptible advance in the na-
tural duration of human life, since first we
had any authentic history of man. The pre-
judices of all ages have indeed been directly
contrary to this supposition ; and though I
would not lay much stress upon these pre-
judices, they must have some tendency to
prove that there has been no marked ad-
vance in an opposite direction.
It may perhaps be said, that the Avorld
is yet so young, so completely in its infancy,
that it ought not to be expected that any
difference should appear so soon.
If this be the case, there is at once an end
of all human science. The whole train of
reasonings from effects to causes will be de-
stroyed. We may shut our eyes to the book
of nature, as it will no longer be of any use to
read
232 Systems of Equality. Bk. iii.
read it. The wildest and most improbable
conjectures may be advanced with as much
certainty, as the most just and subhme
theories, fomided on careful and reiterated
experiments. We may return again to the
old mode of philosophizing, and make facts
bend to systems, instead of establishing
systems upon facts. The grand and con-
sistent theory of Newton will be placed
upon the same footing as the wild and ec-
centric hypotheses of Descartes. In short,
if the laws of nature be thus fickle and in-
constant ; if it can be affirmed, and be be-
lieved, that they will change, when for ages
and ages they have appeared immutable ;
the human mind will no longer have any
incitements to inquiry, but must remain
sunk in inactive torpor, or amuse itself only
in bewildering dreams and extravagant
fancies.
The constancy of the laws of nature, and
of effects and causes, is the foundation of
all human knowledge ; and if, without any
previous observable symptoms or indica-
tions of a change, we can infer that a change
■wall take place, we may as well make any
assertion
Ch. i. JVallace. Condorcet. 233
assertion whatever ; and think it as unrea-
sonable to be contradicted, in affirming
that the moon will come in contact with the
earth to morrow, as in saying that the sun
will rise at its expected time.
With regard to the duration of human
life, there does not appear to have existed,
from the earliest ages of the world to the
present moment, the smallest permanent
symptom or indication of increasing pro-
longation. The observable effects of cli-
mate, habit, diet, and other causes, on
length of life, have furnished the pretext
for asserting its indefinite extension ; and
the sandy foundation on which the argu-
ment rests is, that because the limit of
human life is undefined, because you can-
not mark its precise term, and say so far
exactly shall it go, and no further, there-
fore its extent may increase for ever, and
be properly termed indefinite or unlimited.
But the fallac}^ and absurdity of this ar-
gument will sufficiently appear iVom a slight
examination of what M. CondorCet calls
the organic perfectibility or degeneration of
the race of plants and animals which, he
says,
234 Systems of Equality. Bk.iii.
says, may be regarded as one of the general
laws of nature.
I have been told that it is a maxim amono-
some of the improvers of cattle, that you
may breed to any degree of nicety you
please; and they found this maxim upon
another, which is, that some of the offspring
will possess the desirable qualities of the
parents in a greater degree. In the famous
Leicestershire breed of sheep, the object is
to procure them with small heads and small
legs. Proceeding upon these breeding max-
ims, it is evident that we might go on, till
the heads and legs were evanescent quan-
tities ; but this is so palpable an absurdity,
that we may be quite sure the premises are
not just, and that there really is a limit,
though we cannot see it, or say exactly
where it is. In this case, the point of the
greatest degree of improvement, or the
smallest size of the head and legs, may be
said to be undefined ; but this is very dif-
ferent from unlimited, or from indefinite,
in M. Condorcet's acceptation of the term.
Though I may not be able in the present
instance to mark the limit, at which further
improvement
Ch. i. Wallace. Condorcet. 235
improvement will sto]), I can very easily
mention a point, at which it will not arrive.
I should not scruple to assert, that were the
breeding to continue for ever, the heads and
legs of these sheep would never be so small
as the head and legs of a rat.
It cannot be true therefore, that, among
animals, some of the offspring will possess
the desirable qualities of the parents in a
greater degree ; or that animals are inde-
finitely perfectible.
The progress of a wild plant to a beau-
tiful garden-tiower is perhaps more marked
and striking, than any thing that takes
place among animals ; yet even here it
would be the height of absurdity to assert
that the progress was unlimited or indefinite.
One of the most obvious features of the im-
provement is the increase of size. The
flower has grown gradually larger by culti-
vation. If the progress were really un-
limited, it might be increased ad infinitum :
but this is so gross an absurdity, that we
may be (piite sure, that among plants as
well as among animals there is a limit to
improvement, though we do not exactly
know
236 Systems of Equality. Bk. iii.
know where it is. It is probable that the
gardeners who contend for flower-prizes
have often apphed stronger dressing with-
out success. At the same time it would be
highly presumptuous in any man to say,
that he had seen the finest carnation or
anemone that could ever be made to grow.
He might however assert, without the small-
est chance of being contradicted by a future
fact, that no carnation or anemone could
ever by cultivation be increased to the size
of a large cabbage ; and yet there are as-
signable quantities greater than a cabbage.
No man can say that he has seen the
largest ear of wheat, or the largest oak,
that could ever grow ; but he might easily,
and with perfect certainty, name a point
of magnitude at which they would not ar-
rive. In all these cases therefore a careful
distinction should be made between an un-
limited progress, and a progress where the
limit is merely undefined.
It will be said perhaps, that the reason
why plants and animals cannot increase in-
definitely in size is, that they would fall by
their own weight. I answer, how do we
know
Ch. i. JVallace. Condor cet. 237
know this but from experience ? from ex-
perience of the degree of strength, with
which these bodies are formed. I know,
that a carnation long before it reached the
size of a cabbage would not be supported
by its stalk ; but I only know this from my
experience of the weakness and want of te-
nacity in the materials of a carnation-stalk.
There might be substances of the same size
that would support as large a head as a
cabbage.
The reasons of the mortality of plants are
at present perfectly unknown to us. No
man can say why such a plant is annual,
another biennial, and another endures for
ages. The whole affair in all these cases,
in plants, animals, and in the human race,
is an affair of experience ; and I only con-
clude, that man is mortal, because the in-
variable experience of all ages has proved
the mortality of that organized substance,
of which his visible body is made.
" What can we reason but from what we know ?"
Sound philosophy will not authorize me
to alter this opinion of the mortality of man
on earth, till it can be clearly pro^'^d that
the
238 Systems of Equality. Bk. iii.
the human race has made, and is making,
a decided progress towards an inimitable
extent of hfe. And the chief reason why I
adduced the two particular instances from
animals and plants was to expose and il-
lustrate, if I could, the fallacy of that ar-
gument, which infers an unlimited progress
merely because some partial improvement
has taken place, and that the limit of this im-
provement cannot be precisely ascertained.
The capacity of improvement in plants
and animals, to a certain degree, no person
can possibly doubt. A clear and decided
progress has already been made ; and yeX
I think it appears that it would be highly
absurd to say, that this progress has no
limits. In human life, though there are
great variations from different causes, it may
be doubted whether since the world began
any organic improvement whatever of the
human frame can be clearly ascertained.
The foundations therefore, on which the
arguments for the organic perfectibihty of
man rest, are unusually weak, and can only
be considered as mere conjectures. It does
not however by an}^ means seem impossible,
that
Cli.i. JVallace. Comhrcet. 239
tliat by an attciitioii to breed, a certain
degree of improvement similar to that
among animals might take place among
men. Whether intellect could be commu-
nicated may be a matter of doubt; but
size, strength, beauty, complexion, and
perhaps even longevity, are in a degree
transmissible. The error does not lie in
supposing a small degree of improvement
possible, but in not discriminating between
a small improvement, the limit of which is
undefined, and an improvement really un-
limited. As the human race however could
not be improved in this way, without con-
demning all the bad specimens to celibacy,
it is not probable that an attention to breed
should ever become general ; indeed I know
of no well-directed attempts of this kind,
except in the ancient family oftheBicker-
stafFs,who are said to have been very success-
ful in whitening the skins and increasing the
height of their race by prudent marriages,
particularly by that very judicious cross
with Maud the milk-maid, by which some
capital defects in the constitutions of the
family were corrected.
It
240 Systems of Equality. Bk. iii.
It will not be necessary, I think, in order
more completely to shew the improbability
of any approach in man towards immor-
tality on earth, to urge the very great ad-
ditional weight, that an increase in the
duration of life would give to the argument
of population.
M. Condorcet's book may be considered
not only as a sketch of the opinions of a ce-
lebrated individual, but of many of the
literary men in France at the beginning of
the revolution. As such, though merely a
sketch, it seems worthy of attention.
Many, I doubt not, will think that the
attempting gravely to controvert so absurd
a paradox, as the immortality of man on
earth, or indeed even the perfectibility of
man and society, is a waste of time and
words ; and that such unfounded conjec-
tures are best answered by neglect. I pro-
fess however to be of a different opinion.
When paradoxes of this kind are advanced
by ingenious and able men, neglect has no
tendency to convince them of their mistakes.
Priding themselves on what they conceive to
be a mark of the reach and size of their own
vmderstandings,
Ch. i. Wallace. Condorcet. 241
understandings, of the extent and com-
prehensiveness of their views, they will look
upon this neglect merely as an indication
of poverty and narrowness in the mental
exertions of their contemporaries, and only
think that the world is not yet prepared to
receive their sublime truths.
On the contrary, a candid investigation
of these subjects, accompanied with a per-
fect readiness to adopt any theory warranted
by sound philosophy, may have a tendency
to convince them that, in forming impro-
bable and unfounded hypotheses, so far
from enlarging the bounds of human science,
they are contracting it; so far from pro-
moting the improvement of the human mind,
they are obstructing it : they are throwing us
back again almost into the infancy of know-
ledge ; and weakening the foundations of that
mode of philosophizing, under the auspices of
which science has of late made such rapid
advances. The late rage for wide and un-
restrained speculation seems to have been
a kind of mental intoxication, arising per-
haps from the great and unexpected dis-
coveries, which had been made in various
VOL. II. R branches
24^ 1^1/stem of Equality. Bk. iii.
branches of science. To men elate and giddy
with ^uch successes, every thing appeared
to be within the grasp of human powers;
and under this illusion they confounded
subjects where no real progress could be
proved, with those where the progress had
been marked, certain and acknowledged.
Could they be persuaded to sober them-
selves with a little severe and chastised
thinking, they would see that the cause of
truth and of sound philosophy cannot but
suffer, by substituting wild flights and un-
supported assertions for patient investiga-
tion and well-supported proofs.
CHAP.
( 248 )
CHAP. II.
Of Sy items of Equality. Godwin,
In reading Mr. Godwin's ingenious work
on political justice, it is impossible not to
be struck with the spirit and energy of his
style, the force and precision of some of
his reasonings, the ardent tone of his
thoughts, and particularly w ith that impres-
sive earnestness of manner which gives an
air of truth to the whole. At the same time
it must be confessed that he has not pro-
ceeded in his inquiries with the caution
that sound philosophy requires ; his con-
clusions are often unwarranted by his pre-
mises ; he fails sometimes in removing
objections which he himself brings forward;
he relies too much on general and abstract
propositions, which will not admit of appli-
cation ; and his conjectures certainly far
outstrip the modesty of nature.
The system of equality, which Mr. God-
R 2 win
244 Of Systems of Equality, Godwin, Bk, Hi.
win proposes, is, on a first view of it, the
most beautiful and engaging of any that
has yet appeared. A melioration of so-
ciety to be produced merely by reason and
conviction gives more promise of perma-
nence than any change effected and main-
tained by force. The unlimited exercise
of private judgment is a doctrine grand and
captivating, and has a vast superiority
over those systems, where every individual
is in a manner tlie slave of the public. The
substitution of benevolence, as the master-
spring and moving principle of societ}^
instead of self-love, appears at first sight to
be a consummation devoutly to be wished.
In short, it is impossible to contemplate the
whole of this fair picture, without emotions
of delight and admiration, accompanied
with an ardent longing for the period of its
accomplishment. But alas! that moment
can never arrive. The whole is little better
than a dream — a phantom of the imagina-
tion. These " gorgeous palaces'* of hap-
piness and immortality, these " solemn
temples'' of truth and \drtue, will dissolve,
" like the baseless fabric of a vision," when
we
Ch. ii. Of Systems of Equaitty. Godwin. 245
we awaken to real life, and contemplate the
genuine situation of man on earth.
Mr. Godwin, at the conclusion of the
third chapter of his eighth book, speaking
of population, says, " There is a principle
" in human society, by which population
" is perpetually kept down to ttie level of
" the means of subsistence. Thus among
" the wandering tribes of America and
" Asia we never find, through the lapse of
" ages, that population has so increased,
" as to render necessary the cultivation
" of the earth ^" This principle, which
Mr. Godwin thus mentions as some myste-
rious and occult cause, and which he does
not attempt to investigate, has appeared
to be the law of necessity — misery, and the
fear of misery.
The great error under which Mr. Godwin
labovns throughout his whole work is, the
attributing of almost all the vices and mi-
sery that prevail in civil society to human
institutions. Political regulations and the
established administration of property are,
with him, the fruitful sources of all evil, the
• P. 460, 8vo. 2d edit.
hotbeds
246 Of Systems of Equalit}) . Godwin. Bk. iii.
hotbeds of all the crimes that degrade man-
kind. Were this really a true state of the
case, it would not seem an absolutely hope-
less task, to remove evil completely from
the world ; and reason seems to be the
proper and adequateinstrument for effecting
so great a purpose. But the truth is, that
thougii human institutions appear to be, and
indeed often are, the obvious and obtrusive
causes of much mischief to society, they
are, in reality, light and superficial, in com-
parison with those deeper-seated causes of
evil, which result from the laws of nature
and the passions of mankind.
In a chapter on the benefits attendant
upon a system of equality, Mr. Godwin
says, " The spirit of oppression, the spirit
" of servility, and the spirit of fraud, these
" are the immediate growth of the esta-
*' bhshed administration of property. They
" are ahke hostile to intellectual improve-
'* ment. The other vices of envy, malice
*' and revenge, are their inseparable com^
" pamons. In a state of society where
*f. men lived in the midst of plenty, and
" where all shared alike the bounties of
" nature,
Ch. u. Of St/stems of Equality. Godwin. 247
** nature, these sentiments would inevitably
" expire. The narrow principle of self-
** ishness would vanish. No man being
" obliged to guard his little store, or pro-
" vide with anxiety and pain for his restless
" wants, each would lose his individual ex-
" istence in the thought of the general
" good. No man would be an enemy to his
" neighbours, for they would have no sub-
" ject of contention ; and of consequence
" philanthropy would resume the empire
" which reason assigns her. Mirid would
" be delivered from her perpetual anxiety
*' about corporal support ; and be free
" to expatiate iri the field of thought which
" is congenial to her. Each would assist
" the inquiries of alt^"
This would indeed be a happy state.
But that it is n)erely an imaginary picture
with scarcely a feature near the truth, the
reader, lam atiaid, is already too well con-
vinced.
Man cannot live in the midst of plenty.
All cannot share alike the bounties of na-
ture. Were there no established admini-
• PoliticalJustice, b. viii. c. iii. p. 4.58.
stration
248 Of Systems of Equality. Godwin. Bk. iii.
stration of property, every man would be
obliged to guard with force his little store.
Selfishness would be triumphant. The sub-
jects of contention would be perpetual.
Every individual would be under a constant
anxiety about corporal support, and not a
single intellect would be lett free to expa-
tiate in the field of thought.
How litde Mr. Godwin has tm'ned his
attention to the real state of human society,
will sufficiently appear from the manner in
which he endeavours to remove the difficulty
of a superabundant population. He says,
" The obvious answer to this objection is,
" that to reason thus is to foresee difficulties
" at a great distance. Three-fourths of the
*' habitable globe are now uncultivated.
" The parts already cultivated are capable
" of immeasurable improvement. Myriads
** of centuries of still increasing population
" may pass away, and the earth be still
'* found sufficient for the subsistence of its
" inhabitants*."
I have already pointed out the error of
supposing that no distress or difficulty
* Polit. Justice, b. viii. c. ix. p. 510.
would
Ch. ii. Of Systems of Equality. Godwin. 249
would arise from a redundant population,
before the earth absolutely refused to pro-
duce any more. But let us imagine for a
moment Mr. Godwin's system of equality
realized in its utmost extent, and see how
soon this difficulty might be expected to
press, under so perfect a form of society.
A theory that will not admit of application
cannot possibly be just.
Let us suppose all the causes of vice and
misery in this island removed. War and
contention cease. Unwholesome trades and
manufactories do not exist. Crowds no
longer collect together in great and pesti-
lent cities for purposes of court intrigue,
of commerce, and of vicious gratification.
Simple, healthy and rational amusements
take place of drinking, gaming and de-
bauchery. There are no towns sufficiently
large to have any prejudicial effects on the
human constitution. The greater part
of the happy inhabitants of this terrestrial
Paradise hve in hamlets and farm-houses
scattered over the face of the country. All
men are equal. The labours of luxury are
at an end ; and the necessary labours of
agriculture
250 Of Systems of Equality. Godwin, Bk. iii.
agriculture are shared amicably among all.
The number of persons and the produce of
the island we suppose to be the same as at
present. The spirit of benevolence, guided
by impartial justice, will divide this produce
among all the members of societ}" according
to their wants. Though it would be im-
possible that they should all have animal
food every da}^ yet vegetable food', M\xh
Aieat occasionally, would satisfy the desiVes
of a frugal people, and would be sufficient
tb preserve them m health, strength and
spirirs.
Mr. Godwin considers marriage as a[
fraud and a monopoly *. Let us suppose
the commerce of the sCxes established upon
principles of the most perfect freedom.
IVIr. Godwin does not think himself, that
this freedom would lead to a promiscuous
intercourse; and in this I perfectly agred
with him. The love of variety is' al
vicious, corrupt and unnatural taste, and
could not' prevail in- any* great dfegreie in a
simple and virtuous state of society. Each
man would probably select for himself a
« Polit. Justice, b.' viiii c. viii. pi4^, et s'e^.
partner,
Ch. ii. Of Systems of Equality. Godxcin. 251
partner, to whom be would adhere, as long
as that adherence continued to be the choice
of both parties. It would be of little con-
sequence, according to Mr. Godwin, how
many children a woman had, or to whom
they belonged. Provisions and assistance
would spontaneously flow from the quarter
in which they abounded to the quarter
in which they were deficient*. And every
man, according to his capacity, would be
ready to furnish instruction to the rising
generation.
I cannot conceive a form of society so
favourable upon the whole to population.
The irremediableness of marriage, as it is
at present constituted, undoubtedly detfers
many from entering into this state. An
unshackled intercourse on the contrary
would be a most powerful incitement to
early attachments ; and as we are supposing
no anxiety about the future support' of
children to exist, I do not coticeive that
there would be one woman in a hundred,
of twenty-three years of age, without a
family.
' Political Justice, b. viii. c. viii. p. 504.
With
252 Of Systems of Equality. Godwin. Bk. iii.
With these extraordinary encouragements
to population, and every cause of depopu-
lation, as we have supposed, removed, the
numbers would necessarily increase faster
than in any society that has ever yet been
known. I have before mentioned that the in-
habitants of the back settlements of America
appear to double their numbers in fifteen
years. England is certainly a more healthy
country than the back settlements of Ame-
rica ; and as we have supposed every house
in the island to be airy and wholesome, and
the encouragements to have a family greater
even than in America, no probable reason
can be assigned, why the population should
not double itself in less, if possible, than
fifteen years. But to be quite sure, that we
do not go beyond the truth, we will only
suppose the period of doubling to be
twenty-five years; a ratio of increase, which
is slower than is known to have taken
place throughout all the United States of
America.
There can be little doubt, that the equa-
lization of property which we have sup-
posed, added to the circumstance of the
labour
Ch. ii. Of Systems of Equality. Godu'm. 253
labour of the whole community being di-
rected chiefly to agriculture, would tend
greatly to augment the produce of the
country. But to answer the demands of a
population increasing so rapidly, Mr. God-
win's calculation of half an hour a day
would certainly not be sufficient. It is
probable that the half of every man's time
must be employed for this purpose. Yet
with such or much greater exertions, a
person who is acquainted with the nature
of the soil in this country, and who reflects
on the fertility of the lands already in cul-
tivation, and the barrenness of those that
are not cultivated, will be very much dis-
posed to doubt, whether the whole average
produce could possibly be doubled in
twenty-five years from the present period.
The only chance of success would be from
the ploughing up most of the grazing coun-
tries, and putting an end almost entirely
to animal food. Yet this scheme would
probably defeat itself. The soil of Eng-
land will not produce much without dress-
ing ; and cattle seem to be necessary to
make
254 Of Systems of Equality. Godwin, Bk. Hi.
m^ke that species of manure, which best
puits the land.
Difficult however as it might be to double
the average pioduce of the island in twenty-
fiye years, let us suppose it effected. At
the expiration of the first period therefore,
the food, though almost entirely vegetable,
would be sufficient to support in health
the doubled population of 22 milhons.
During the next period, where will the
food be fotrnd, to satisfy the importunate
demands of the increasing numbers? Where
i$ the fresh laud to turn up? Where is the
dressing necessary to improve that which
is already in cultivation ? There is no per-
§Qn with the smallest knowledge of land but
would say that it was impossible that the
average produce of the country could be
increased during the second twenty-five
years by a quantity equal to what it at
present yields. Yet we will suppose this
increase, however improbable, to take place.
Ttie exuberant strength of the ai'gument
aJJows of almost any concession. Even
with this concession, however, there would
be
Gh. ii. Of SysWns of Equality. Godwin: 256
be 11 millions at the expiration of the sct
cond term unprovided for. A quantity
equal to the frugal support of S3 milhons
^vould be to be divided among 44 millions.
Alas ! what becomes of the picture, where
men lived in the midst of plenty, where no
man was obliged to provide with anxiety
and pain for his restless wants ; Avhere the
narrow principle of selfishness did not
exist ; where the mind Avas delivered from
her perpetual anxiety about corporal sup-
port, and free to expatiate in the field of
thought which is congenial to her? This
beautiful fabric of the imagination vanishes
at the severe touch of truth. The spirit of
benevolence, cherished and invigorated by
plenty, is repressed by the chilling breath
of want. The hateful passions that had
vanished reappear. The mighty law of
self-preservation expels all the softer aad
more exalted emotions of the soul. The
temptations to evil are too strong for hu-
man nature to resist. The corn h plucked
up before it is ripe, or secreted in unfair
proportions ; and the whole black train of
vices that belong to falsehood are imme-
diately
256 Of Systems of Equality. Godwin. Bk. iii.
diately generated. Provisions no longer
flow in for the support of a mother with a
large family. The children are sickly from
insufficient food. The rosy flush of health
gives place to the pallid cheek and hollow
eye of misery. Benevolence, 3^et lingering
in a few bosoms, makes some faint expiring
struggles, till at length self-love resumes
his w^onted empire, and lords it triumphant
over the world.
No human institutions here existed, to
the perverseness of which Mr. Godwin
ascribes the original sin of the worst men^.
No opposition had been produced by
them between public and private good.
No monopoly had been created of those
advantages which reason directs to be left
in common. No man had been goaded to
the breach of order by unjust laws. Bene-
volence had established her reign in all
hearts.' And yet in so short a period as
fifty years, violence, oppression, falsehood,
misery, every hateful vice and every form
of distress, which degrade and sadden the
present state of society, seem to have been
* Polit. Justice, b. viii. c. iii. p. 340.
generated
Ch. ii. Of Systems of Equality. Godw'm. 257
generated by the most imperious circum-
stances, by laws inherent in the nature of
man, and absolutely independent of all
human regulations.
If we be not yet too well convinced of
the reality of this melancholy picture, let
us but look for a moment into the next
period of twenty-five years, and we shall
see that according to the natural increase
of population 44 millions of human beings
would be without the means of support ;
and at the conclusion of the first century,
the population would have had the power
of increasing to 176 millions, while the
food was only sufficient for 55 millions,
leaving 121 millions unprovided for: and
yet all this time vve are supposing the pro-
duce of the earth absolutely unlimited, and
the yearly increase greater than the boldest
speculator can imagine.
This is undoubtedly a very different view
of the difficulty arising from the principle
of population from that which Mr. Godwin
gives, when he says, " Myriads of centu-
" ries of still increasing population may
" pass away, and the earth be still
VOL. I J. s *' found
258 Of Systems qf Equality. Godwin. Bk. iii,
" found sufficient for the subsistence of its
" inhabitants/^
I am sufficiently aware that the re-
dundant millions which I have mentioned
could never have existed. It is a per-
fectly just observation of Mr. Godwin, that
*' there is a principle in human society
" by which population is perpetually kept
" down to the level of the means of sub-
" sistence.'' The sole (juestion is, what is
this principle ? Is it some obscure and
occult cause ? Is it some mysterious inter-
ference of Heaven, which at a certain pe*
riod strikes the men with impotence, and
the women with barrenness ? Or is it a
cause open to our researches within our
view ; a cause which has constantly been
observed to operate, though with varied
force, in every state in which man has been
placed ? Is it not misery, and tlie fear of
misery, the necessary and inevitable results
of the laws of nature in the present stage
of man's existence, which human institu-
tions, so far from aggravating, have tended
considerably to mitigate, though they can
never remove ?
It
Ch.ii. Of Systtms of Equality. Godw'm. 259
It may be curious to observe, in the case
that we have been supposing, how some of
the principal laws, which at present govern
civilized society, would be successively
dictated by the most imperious neces-
sity. As man, according to Mr. Godwin,
is the creature of the impressions to which
he is subject, the goadings of want could
not continue long, before some violations
of public or private stock would neces-
sarily take place. As these violations in-
creased in number and extent, the more
active and comprehensive intellects of the
society would soon perceive that, while
the population was fast increasing, the
yearly produce of the country would shortly
begin to diminish. The urgency of the
case would suggest the necessity of some
immediate measures being taken for the
general safety. Some kind of convention
would be then called, and the dangerous
situation of the country stated in the
strongest terms. It would be observed
that while they lived in the midst of plenty
it was of little consequence who laboured
s 2 the
260 Of Systems of Equality. Godwin. Bk. iii.
the least, or who possessed the least, as
every man was perfectly willing and ready
to supply the wants of his neighbour. But
that the question was no longer, whether
one man should give to another that which
he did not use himself; but whether he
should give to his neighbour the food which
was absolutely necessary to his own exist-
ence. It would be represented that the
number of those who were in wapt very
greatly exceeded the number and means of
those who should supply them ; that these
pressing wants, which from the state of the
produce of the country could not all be
gratified, had occasioned some flagrant
violations of justice ; that these violations
had already checked the increase of food,
and would, if they were not by some means
or other prevented, throw the whole com-
munity into confusion ; that imperious ne-
cessity seemed to dictate that a 3'early in-
crease of produce should, if possible, be
obtained at all events ; that in order to
effect this first great and indispensable pur-
pose, it would be advisable to make a more
complete
Ch. ii. Of Systems of Equality. Godxtin. ^(Vl
complete division of land, and to secure
every man's i)ropcrty against violation by
the most powerful sanctions.
It might be urged perhaps by some ob-
jectors, that as the fertility of the land in-
creased, and various accidents occurred,
the bhares of some men might be much
more than sufficient for their support; and
that when the reign of self-love was once
established, they would not distribute their
surplus produce without some compensa-
tion in return. It would be observed in
answer, that this was an inconvenience
greatly to be lamented ; but that it was an
evil which would bear no comparison to
the black train of distresses inevitably oc-
casioned by the insecurit}^ of property ;
that the quantity of food, which one man
could consume, was necessarily limited by
the narrow capacity of the human stomach;
that it was certainly not probable that he
should throw away the rest ; and if he ex-
changed his surplus produce for the labour
of others, this would be better than that
these others should absolutely starve.
It seems highly probable therefore that
an
262 Of Systttns of Equality. Gochvin. Bk. ill.
an adniinistration of property, not very
different from tliat which prevails in civi-
lized states at present, would be established
as the best (though inadequate) remedy for
the evils which were pressing on the society.
The next subject which would come
under discussion, intimately connected with
the preceding, is the commerce of the sexes.
It would be urged by those Avho had turned
their attention to the true cause of the
difficulties mider which the community la-
boured, that while every n;ian felt secure
that all his children would be well provided
for by general benevolence, the powers of
the earth would be absolutely inadequate
to produce food for the population which
would ensue ; that even if the whole atten-
tion and labour of the society were directed
to this sole point, and if by the most per-
fect security of property, and every other
encouragement that could be thought of,
the greatest possible increase of produce
were yearly obtained, yet still the increase
of food would by no means keep pace with
the much more rapid increase of popula-
tion ; that some check to population there-
fore
I
Ch. ii. Of Systems of Equality. Godwin. 263
fore was imperiously called for ; that the
jnost natural and obvious check seemed to
be, to make every man provide for his own
children ; that this Avould operate in some
res])ect as a measure and a guide in the
increase of population, as it might be ex-
pected that no man would bring beings
into the world for whom he could not find
the means of support ; that, where this
notwithstanding was the case, it seemed
necessary for the example of others, that
the disgrace and inconvenience attending
such a conduct should fall upon that in-
dividual, who had thus inconsiderately
plunged himself and his innocent children
into want and misery.
The institution of marriage, oi' at least of
some express or implied obligation on every
man to support his own children, seems to
be the natural result of these reasonings in
a community under the difficulties that we
have supposed.
The view of these difficulties presents us
with a very natural reason, why the dis-
grace which attends a breach of chastity
should be greater in a woman than in a
man.
264 Of Systems oj Equality. Godwin. Bk. iii.
man. It could not be expected that wo-
men should have resources sufficient to
support their own children. When there-
fore a woman had lived with a man who
had entered into no compact to maintain
her children, and aware of the inconveni-
ences that he might bring upon himself,
had deserted her, these children must ne-
cessarily fall upon the society for support,
or starve. And to prevent the frequent
recurrence of such an inconvenience, as it
would be highly unjust to punish so natural
a fault by personal restraint or infliction,
the men might agree to punish it with dis-
gi'ace. The offence is besides more ob-
vious and conspicuous in the woman, and
less liable to any mistake. The father of
a child may not always be known ; but the
same uncertainty cannot easily exist with
regard to the mother. Where the evidence
of the offence was most complete, and the
inconvenience to the society, at the same
time, the greatest, there it was agreed that
the largest share of blame should fall. The
obligation on every man to support his
children the society would enforce by posi-
tive
Ch. ii. Of Systems of Equality . Godwin. 265
tive laws ; and the greater degree of incon-
venience or labour, to whicli a family would
necessarily subject him, added to some
portion of disgrace which every human
being must incur who leads another into
unhappiness, might be considered as a suf-
ficient punishment for the man.
That a woman should at present be al-
most driven from society for an offence,
which men commit nearly with impunity,
seems undoubtedly to be a breach of na-
tural justice. But the origin of the custom,
as the most obvious and effectual method
of preventing the frequent recurrence of a
serious inconvenience to the community,
appears to be natural, though not perhaps
perfectly justifiable. This origin however
is now lost in the new train of ideas that
the custom has since generated. What at
first might be dictated by state necessity is
now supported by female delicacy ; and
operates witli the greatest force on that part
of the society, where, if the original inten-
tion of the custom were preserved, there is
the least real occasion for it.
When these two fundamental laws of
society.
266 Of Systems of Equality . Godwin. Bk. iii.
society, the security of property, and the
institution of marriage, were once esta-
bhshed, inequality of conditions must ne-
cessarily follow. Those who were born
after the division of property would come
into a world already possessed. If their
parents, from having too large a family,
were unable to give them sufficient for
their support, what could they do in a world
where every thing was appropriated? We
have seen the fatal effects that would result
to society, if every man load a valid claim
to an equal share of the produce of the
earth. The niembers of a family, which
was grown too large for the original division
of land appropriated to it, could not then
demand a part of the surplus produce of
others as a debt of justice. It has ap-
peared that from the inevitable laws of
human nature some human beings will be
exposed to w^ant. These are the unhappy
persons, who in the great lottery of hfe
have drawn a blank. The number of these
persons W'Ould soon exceed the ability of
the surplus produce to supply. Moral
merit is a very difficult criterion, except in
extreme
Ch. ii. Of Systems of Equality. Godwin. 267
extreme cases. The owners of surplus pro-
duce would in general seek some more
obvious mark of distinction ; and it seems
to be both natural and just, that, except
upon particular occasions, their choice
should fall upon those who were able, and
professed themselves willing, to exert their
strength in procuring a further surplus pro-
duce, which would at once benefit the
community and enable the proprietors to
afford assistance to greater numbers. All
who were in want of food would be
urged by necessity to offer their labour
in exchange for this article so absolutely
necessary to existence. The fund appro-
priated to the maintenance of labour would
be the aggregate quantity of food possessed
by the owners of land beyond their own
consumption. When the demands upon
this fund were great and numerous it would
naturally be divided into very small shares.
Labour would be ill paid. Men would
offer to work for a bare subsistence ; and
the rearing of families would be checked
by sickness and misery. On the contrary,
when this fund was increasing fast ; when
it
268 Of Systems of Equality . Godrvin. Bk.iii.
it Avas great in proportion to the number
of claimants, it would be divided in much
larger shares. No man would exchange
his labour without receiving an ample
quantit}^ of food in return. Labourers
would live in ease and comfort, and would
consequently be able to rear a numerous
and vigorous offspring.
On the state of this fund, the happiness,
or the degree of misery, prevaihng among
the lower classes of people in every known
state at present, chiefly depends ; and on
this happiness or degree of misery, depends
principally the increase, stationariness, or
decrease of population.
And thus it appears that a society con-
stituted according to the most beautiful
form that imagination can conceive, with
benevolence for its moving principle in-
stead of self-love, and with every evil dis-
position in all its members corrected by
reason, not force, would from the inevita-
ble laws of nature, and not from any fault
in human institutions, degenerate in a very
short period into a society constructed upon
a pkn not essentially different from that
which
Ch. ii. Of Systems of Equality. Godwin. 269
which prevails in every known state at
present; a society, divided into a class of
proprietors and a class of labourers, and
Avith self-love for the mainspring of the
great machine.
In the supposition which I have made,
I have undoubtedly taken the increase of
population smaller, and tlie increase of
produce greater, than they really would be.
No reason can be assigned why, under the
circumstances supposed, population should
not increase faster than in 'dx\y known in-
stance. If then we were to take the pe-
riod of doubling at fifteen years instead of
twenty-five years, and reflect upon the la-
bour necessary to double the produce in so
short a time, even if we allow it possible ;
we may venture to pronounce with cer-
taint}', that, if Mr. Godwin's system of so-
ciety were established in its utmost perfec-
tion, instead of myriads of centuries, not
thirty years could elapse before its utter
destruction from the simple principle of
population.
I have taken no notice of emigration in
this place, for obvious reasons. If such
societies
270 Of Systems of Equality. Godwin. Bk. iii.
societies were instituted in other parts of
Europe, these countries would be under
the same difficulties with regard to popu-
lation, and could admit no fresh members
into their bosoms. If this beautiful so-
ciety were confined to our island, it must
have degenerated strangely from its original
purity, and administer but a very small
portion of the happiness it proposed, be-
fore any of its members would voluntarily
consent to leave it, and live under such
governments as at present exist in Europe,
or submit to the extreme hardships of first
settlers in new regions.
CHAP.
( 271 )
CHAP. III.
Of Systems of Equality (continued).
IT was suggested to me some years since
by persons for vrhose judgment I have a
high respect, that it might be advisable, in
a new edition, to throw out the matter rela-
tive to systems of equality, to Wallace,
Condorcet and Godwin, as having in a con-
siderable degree lost its interest, and as not
being strictly connected with the main sub-
ject of the Essay, which is an explanation
and illustration of the theory of population.
But independently of its being natural for
me to have some little partiality for that
part of the work which led to those inqui-
ries on which the main subject rests; I
really think that there should be somewhere
on record an answer to systems of equality
founded on the principle of population ;
and perhaps such an answer is as appropri-
ately placed, and is likely to hav6 as much
effect, among the illustrations and applica-
tions
272 Of Si/s terns of Equality, continued. Bk. iii.
tions of the principle of population, as in
any other situation to which it could be
assigned.
The appearances in all human societies,
particularly in all thosewhich are the furthest
advanced in civilization and improvement,
will ever be such, as to inspire superficial
observers with a belief that a prodigious
change for the better might be effected by
the introduction of a system of equality and
of common property. They see abundance
in some quarters, and want in others ; and the
natural and obvious remedy seems to be an
equal division of the produce. They see apro-
digious quantity of human exertion wasted
upon trivial, useless, and sometimes per-
inicious objects, which might either be
wholly saved or more effectively em-
ployed. They see invention after invention
in machinery brought forward, which is
seemingly calculated, in the most marked
manner, to abate the sum of human toil.
Yet with these apparent means of giving
plenty, leisure and happiness to all, they
still see the labours of the great mass of so-
ciety undiminished, and their condition, if
not
Gh. iii. Of Systems of Equality, continued. 273
not deteriorated, in no very striking and
palpable manner improved.
Under these circumstances, it cannot be a
matter of wonder that proposals for systems
of equality should be continually reviving.
After periods m hen the subject has under-
gone a thorough discussion, or when some
great experiment in improvement has failed,
it is likely that the question should lie dm-
jnant for a tinie, and that the opinions of
the advocates of equality should be ranked
among those .errors which had passed away
to be heard of no more. But it is probable
that if the world were to last for any num-
ber of thousand years, systems of equality
would be among those errors, which like
the tunes of a barrel organ, to use the illus-
tration of Dugald Stewart % will never cease
to return at certain intervals.
I am induced to make these remarks, and
to add a little to what I have already said
on systems of equality, instead of leaving
out the whole discussion, by a tendency to
a revival of this kind at the present moment.
* Preliminary Dissertation to Supplement to the Ency-
clopaedia Britannica, p. 121.
VOL. II. T A oentleinan.
274 Of Systems of Equality, cojitmiied. Bk. iii.
A gentleman, for whom I have a very
sincere respect, Mr. Owen, of Lanark, has
lately published a work entitled A New View
of Society, wdiich is intended to prepare the
public mind for the introduction of a system
involving a community of labour and of
goods. It is also generally known that an
idea has lately prevailed among some of
the lower classes of society, that the land is
the people's farm, the rent of which ought
to be equally divided among them; and
that they have been deprived of the benefits
-which belong to them from this their natural
inheritance, by the injustice and oppres-
sion of their stewards, the landlords.
Mr. Owen is, I believe, a man of real be-
nevolence, who has done much good ; and
every friend to humanity must heartily wish
him success in his endeavours to procure an
Act of Parliament for limiting the hours of
Avorking among the children in the cotton
manufactories, and preventing them from
being employed at too early an age. He
is further entitled to great attention on all
subjects relating to education, from the ex-
perience and knowledge which he must
have
Ch. iii. Of Systems of Equality y continued. '2!7b
have gained in an intercourse of many years
with two thousand manufacturers, and from
the success which is said to have resulted
from his modes of management. A theory
professed to be founded on such experience
is no doubt worthy of much more considera-
tion than one formed in a closet.
The claims to attention possessed by the
author of the new doctrines relating to land
are certainly very slender ; and the doc-
trines themselves indicate a very great de-
gree of ignorance ; but the errors of the la-
bouring classes of society are always en-
titled to great indulgence and consideration.
They are the natural and pardonable re-
sults of their liabilit}^ to be deceived by first
appearances, and by the arts of designing
men, owing to the nature of their situation,
and the scanty knowledge which in general
falls to their share. And, except in ex-
treme cases, it must always be the wish of
those who are better informed, that they
should be brought to a sense of the trutli,
rather by patience and the gradual diffusion
of education and knowledge, than by any-
harsher methods.
T 2 Alter
276 Of Systems of Equality, continued. Bk. iii.
After what I have already said on systems
of equality in the preceding chapters, I
shall not think it necessary to enter into a
long and elaborate refutation of these doc-
trines. I merely mean to give an additional
reason for leaving on record an answer to
systems of equality, founded on the princi-
ple of population, together with a concise
restatement of this answer for practical
application.
Of the two decisive arguments against
such systems, one is, the unsuitableness of
a state of equality, both according to expe-
rience and theory, to the production of those
stimulants to exertion which can alone over-
come the natural indolence of man, and
prompt him to the proper cultivation of the
earth and the fabrication of those conve-
niences and comforts which are necessary to
his happiness.
And the other, the inevitable and neces-
sary poverty and misery in which every sys-
tem of equality must shortly terminate from
the acknowledged tendency of the human
race to increase faster than the means of
subsistence, unless such increase be pre-
vented
Ch. iii. Of Systeins of Equality, continued, 277
vented by means infinitely more cruel than
those which result from the laws of private
property, and the moral obligation imposed
on every man by the commands of God and
natuieto support his own children.
The first of these arguments has, I confess,
always appeared to my own mind suflftcient-'
ly conclusive. A state, in which an inequa-
lity of conditions offers the natural rewards
of good conduct, and inspires widely and
generally the hopes of rising and the fears
of falling in society, is unquestionably the
best calculated to develope the energies and
faculties of man, and the best suited to the
exercise and improvement of human virtue*.
And history, in every case of equality that
has yet occurred, has uniformly borne wit-
ness to the depressing and deadening effects
which arise from the want of this stimulus.
But still perhaps it may be true that neither
experience northeoryonthis subject is quite
so decisive as to preclude all plausible ar-
* See this subject very ably treated in a work on the Re-
cords of the Creation, and the Moral Attributes of the
Creator, by the Rev. John Bird Sumner, not long since
published; a work of very great merit, which I hope
soon to see in as extensive circulation as it deserves.
gument*
278 Of Systems of Equality y continued. Bk^iii
guments on the other side. It may be said
that the instances which history records of
systems of equaUty really carried into exe-
cution are so few, and those in societies so
little advanced from a state of barbarism, as
to afford no fair conclusions relative to pe-
riods of great civilization and improve-
ment ; that in other instances in ancient
times, where approaches were made toward
a tolerable equality of conditions, examples
of considerable energy of character in some
lines of exertion are not unfrequent ; and
that in modern times some societies, parti-
cularly of Moravians, are known to have
had much of their property in common
without occasioning the destruction of their
industry. It may be said that, allowing
the stimulus of inequality of conditions to
have been necessary, in order to raise man
from the indolence and apathy of the savage
to the activity and intelligence of civilized
life, it does not follow that the continuance
of the same stimulus should be necessary
when this activity and energy of mind has
been once gained. It may then be allow-
able quietly to enjoy the benefit of a re-
gimen
Cli. iii. Of Systems of Equality, continued. 279
gimen which, hke many other stimulants,
liaving produced its proper effect at a cer-
tain point must be left off, or exhaustion,
disease and death will follow.
These observations are certainly not of a
nature to produce conviction in those who
have studied the human character ; but they
are to a certain degree plausible, and do
not admit of so definite and decisive an
answer as to make the proposal for an expe-
riment in modern times utterly absurd and
unreasonable.
The peculiar advantage of the other ar-
gument against systems of equality, that
which is founded on the principle of popu-
lation, is, that it is not only still more ge-
nerally and uniformly confirmed by expe-
rience, in every age and in every part of
the world, but it is so pre-eminently clear
in theory, that no tolerably plausible answer
can be given to it ; and consequently no
decent pretence can be brought forward for
an experiment. The affair is a matter of
the most sunple calculation applied to the
known properties of land, and the propor-
tion of births to deaths which takes place
in
280 Of Systems of Equality, continued. Bk. iii.
in almost every country village. There are
many parishes in England, where, notwith-
standing the actual difficulties attending the
support of a family which must necessarily
occur in every well-peopled country, and
making no allowances for omissions in the
registers, the births are to the deaths in the
proportion of 2 to 1. This proportion, with
the usual rate of mortality in country places,
of about 1 in 50, would continue doubling
the population in 41 years, if there were no
emigrations from the parish. But in any
system of equality, either such as that pro-
posed by Mr. Owen, or in parochial part-
nerships in land, not only would there be
no means of emigration to other parishes
with any prospect of relief, but the rate of
increase at first would of course be much
greater than in the present state of societ3\
What then, I would ask, is to prevent the
division of the produce of the soil to each
individual from becoming every year less
and less, till the whole society and every
individual member of it are pressed down
by want and misery ^ ? This
f In the Spencean system, as published by the secretary
of
i
Ch. iii. Of Systems of Equality, continued. 281
This is a very simple and intelligible
question. And surely no man ought to
propose or support a system of equality,
who is not able to give a rational answer to
it, at least in theory. But even in theory,
I have never yet heard any thing approach-
ing to a rational answer to it.
It is a very superficial observation which
has sometimes been made, that it is a con-
tradiction to lay great stress upon the ef-
ficacy of moral restraint in an improved
and improving state of society, according
of the Society of Spencean Philanthropists, it unfor-
tunately happens, that after the proposed allowances
have been made for the expenses of the government, and
of the other bodies in the state which are intended to be
supported, there would be absolutely no remainder ; and
the people would not derive a single sixpence from their
estate, even at first, and on the supposition of the national
debt being entirely abolished, without the slightest com-
pensation to the national creditors.
The annual rent of the land, houses, mines and fish-
eries, is estimated at loO millions, about three times its
real amount ; yet, even upon this extravagant estimate, it
is calculated that the division would only come to about
four pounds a head, not more than is sometimes given to
individuals from the poor's rates ; a miserable provision !
and yet constantly diminishing.
to
282 Of Systems of Equalitij, continued. Bk. iii.
to the present structure of it, and yet to
suppose that it would not act with sufficient
force in a system of equahty, which ahnost
always presupposes a great diffusion of in-
formation, and a great improvement of the
human mind. Those who have made this
observation do not see that the encourage-
ment and motive to moral restraint are at
once destroyed in a system of equalit}^ and
community of goods.
Let us suppose that in a system of equality,
in spite of the best exertions to procure more
food, the population is pressing hard against
the limits of subsistence, and all are becoming
very poor. It is evidently necessary under
these circumstances, in order to prevent the
society from starving, that the rate at which
the population increases, should be retarded.
But who are the persons that are to exercise
the restraint thus called for, and either to
marry late or not at all ? It does not seem
to be a necessary consequence of a system
of equality that all the human passions
should be at once extinguished by it ; l)ut
if not, those who might wish to marry
would feel it hard that they should be among
the
Ch. iii. Of Systems ofEqualiti/, continued. 283
the number forced to restrain their inchna-
tions. As all would be equal, and in similar
circumstances, there would be no reason
whatever why one individual should think
himself" obliged to practise the duty of re-
straint more than another. The thino;
however must be done, with any hope of
avoiding universal misery ; and in a state
of equality, the necessary restraint could
only be effected by some general law. But
how is this law to be supported, and how
are the violations of it to be punished ? Is
the man who marries early to be pointed
at with the finger of scorn? is he to be
whipped at the cart's tail ? is he to be con-
fined for years in a prison ? is he to have
his children exposed? Are not all direct
punishments for an offence of this kind
shocking and unnatural to the last degree ?
And yet, if it be absolutely necessary, in
order to prevent the most overwhelming
wretchedness, that there should be some
restraint on the tendency to early marriages,
when the resources of the country are only
sufficient to support a slow rate of increase,
can the most fertile imagination conceive
one
284 Of Systems of Equality , continued. Bk. m.
one at once so natural, so just, so consonant
to the laws of God and to the best laws
framed by the most enlightened men, as
that each individual should be responsible
for the maintenance of his own children ;
that is, that he should be subjected to
the natural inconveniences and difficulties
arising from the indulgence of his inclina-
tions, and to no other whatever ?
That this natural check to early marriages
arising from a view of the difficulty attending
the support of a large family operates very
widely throughout all classes of society in
every civilized state, and may be expected
to be still more effective, as the lower classes
of people continue to improve in knowledge
and prudence, cannot admit of the slightest
doubt. But the operation of this natural
check depends exclusively upon the ex-
istence of the laws of property, and suc-
cession ; and in a state of equality and
community of property could only be re-
placed by some artificial regulation of a
very different stamp, and a much more un-
natural character. Of this Mr. Owen is
fully sensible, and has in consequence
taxed
Ch. iii. Of Systems of Equalit J/, continued. 285
taxed his ingenuity to the utmost to invent
some mode, by which the difficulties arising
from the progress of population could be
got rid of, in the state of society to which
he looks forward. His absolute inability
to suggest any mode of accomplishing this
object that is not unnatural, immoral, or
cruel in a high degree, together with the
same want of success in every other person,
ancient * or modern, who has made a similar
attempt, seem to shew that the argument
against systems of equality founded on the
principle of population does not admit of a
plausible answer, even in theory. The fact
of the tendency of population to increase
beyond the means of subsistence may be
seen in almost every register of a country
parish in the kingdom. The unavoidable
effect of this tendency to depress the wliole
body of the people in want and misery,
unless the progress of the population be
somehow or other retarded, is equally ob-
vious ; and the impossibility of checking
• The reader has already seen in ch. xiii. bk. i. the de-
testable means of checking population proposed by some
ancient lawgivers in order to support their systems of
equality.
the
286 Of Systems of Equalitt/, continued, Bk. iii.
the rate of increase in a state of equality,
without resorting to regulations that are
unnatural, immoral or cruel, forms an ar-
gument at once conclusive against every
such system.
CHAP.
( 287 )
CHAP. IV.
Of Emigration.
Although the resource of emigration
seems to be excluded from such perfect so-
cieties as the advocates of equahty generally
contemplate ; yet in that imperfect state of
improvement, which alone can rationally
be expected, it may fairly enter into our
consideration. And as it is not probable
that human industry should begin to receive
its best direction throughout all the nations
of the earth at the same time, it may be
said that, in the case of a redundant popula-
tion in the more cultivated parts of the world,
the natural and obvious remedy which pre-
sents itself is emigration to those parts that
are uncultivated. As these parts are of great
extent, and very thinly peopled, this resource
might appear, on a first view of the sub-
ject, an adequate remedy, or at least of a na-
ture calculated to remove the evil to a dis-
tant
288 Of Emigration. hk, iii.
tant period : but when we advert to expe-
rience and the actual state of the unci-
vihzed parts of the globe, instead of any
thing like an adequate remedy, it will ap-
pear but a shght palhative.
In the accounts which we have received of
the peopling of new countries, the dangers,
difficulties and hardships, Avith which the
first settlers have had to struggle, appear
to be even greater than we can well ima-
gine they could be exposed to in their pa-
rent state. The endeavour to avoid that
degree of unhappiness w hich arises from
the difficulty of supporting a family might
long have left the new world of America
unpeopled by Europeans, if those more
powerful passions, the thirst of gain, the
spirit of adventure, and religious enthu-
siasm, had not directed and animated the
enterprise. These passions enabled the first
adventurers to triumph over every obstacle ;
but in many instances, in a way to make
humanity shudder, and to defeat the true
end of emigration. Whatever may be the
character of the Spanish inhabitants of
Mexico and Peru at the present moment,
we
Ch. iv. Of Emigration. 289
we cannot read the accounts of the first
conquests of these countries, without feeling
strongly, that the race destroyed was in
moral worth as well as numbers superior to
the race of their destroyers.
The parts of America settled by the
English, from being thinly peopled, were
better adapted to the establishment of new
colonies ; yet even here, the most formidable
difficulties presented themselves. In the
settlement of Virginia, begun by Sir Walter
Raleigh and established by Lord Delaware,
three attempts completely failed. Nearly
half of the first colony was destroyed by the
savages, and the rest, consumed and worn
down by fatigue and famine, deserted the
country, and returned home in despair.
The second colony was cut off to a man in
a manner unknown ; but they were sup-
posed to be destroyed by the Indians. The
third experienced the same dismal fate ;
and the remains of the fourth, after it had
been reduced by famine and disease in the
course of six months from 500 to 60 per-
sons, were returning in a famishing and
desperate condition to England, when they
VOL. II. u were
290 Of Emigration. Bk. iii.
were met in the mouth of the Chesapeak
bay by Lord Delaware, with a squadron
loaded with provisions, and every thing for
their rehef and defence ^.
The first puritan settlers in New England
were few in number. They landed in a
bad season, and were only supported by
their private funds. The winter was pre-
mature and terribly cold ; the country was
covered with wood, and afforded very httle
for the refreshment of persons sickly with
such a voyage, or for the sustenance of an
infant people. Nearly half of them per
rished by the scurvy, by want, and the se-
verity of the climate ; yet those who sur-
vived were not dispirited by their hardships,
but, supported by their energy of character,
and the satisfaction of finding themselves
out of the reach of the spiritual arm, re-
duced this savage country by degrees to
yield a comfortable subsistence ^.
Even the plantation of Barbadoes, which
increased afterwards with such extraordi-
* Burke's America, vol. ii. p. 219. Robertson, b. ix.
p. 83, 86.
^ Burke's America, vol. ii. p. 144.
nary
I
J
Ch. iv. Of Emigration. 291
nary rapidity, had at first to contend with
a country utterly desolate, an extreme want
of provisions, a difficulty in clearing the
ground unusually great from the uncommon
size and hardness of the trees, a most dis-
heartening scantiness and poverty in their
first crops, and a slow and precarious sup-
ply of provisions from England *.
The attempt of the French in 1663, to
form at once a powerful colony in Guiana,
was attended with the most disastrous con-
sequences. Twelve thousand men were
landed in the rainy season, and placed
under tents and miserable sheds. In this
situation, inactive, weary of existence, and
in want of all necessaries ; exposed to con-
tagious distempers, which are always oc-
casioned by bad provisions, and to all the
irregularities which idleness produces
among the lower classes of society, almost
the whole of them ended their lives in all
the horrors of despair. Tiie attempt was
completely abortive. Two thousand men,
whose robust constitutions had enabled
them to resist the inclemency ot the climate,
' Burke's America, vol. ii. p, 8i,
u 2 and
292 OJ Emigration. Bk. iii.
and the miseries to which they had been
exposed, were brought back to France ;
and the 26,000,000 of hvres, which had
been expended in the expedition, were to-
tally lost \
In the late settlements at Port Jackson
in New Holland, a melancholy and af-
fecting picture is drawn by Collins of the
extreme hardships, with which, for some
years, the infant colony had to struggle,
before the produce was equal to its sup-
port. These distresses were undoubtedly
aggravated by the character of the settlers;
but those which were caused by the un-
healthiness of a newly cleared country, the
failure of first crops, and the uncertainty
of supplies from so distant a mother coun-
try, were of themselves sufficiently dis-
lieartening, to place in a strong point of
view the necessity of great resources, as
well as unconquerable perseverance, in the
colonization of savage countries.
The establishment of colonies in the more
thinly peopled regions of Europe and Asia
• Rayual, Hist, des Indes, torn. vii. liv. xiii. p. 43. 10
vols. Svo. 1795.
would
Ch. iv. Of Emigration. 293
would evidently require still greater re-
sources. From the power and w^arlike
character of the inhabitants of these coun-
tries, a considerable military force would
be necessary, to prevent their utter and
immediate destruction. Even the frontier
provinces of the most powerful states are
defended with considerable difficulty from
such restless neighbours ; and the peaceful
labours of the cultivator are continually in-
terrupted by their predatory incursions.
The late Empress Catharine of Russia
found it necessary to protect by regular
fortresses the colonies wdiich she had esta-
blished in the districts near the Wolga ;
and the calamities which her subjects suf-
fered by the incursions of the Crim Tartars
furnished a pretext, and perhaps a just one,
for taking possession of the whole of the
Crimea, and expelling the greatest part of
these turbulent neighbours, and reducing
the rest to a more tranquil mode of life.
The difficulties attending a first esta-
blishment from soil, climate and the want
of j)roper conveniences, are of course nearly
the same in these regions as in America.
Mr. Eton,
294 Of Emigration. Bk. iii.
Mr. Eton, in his Account of the Turkish
Empire, says that 75,000 Christians were
obhged by Russia to emigrate from the
Crimea, and sent to inhabit the country
abandoned by the Nogai Tartars ; but the
winter coming on before the houses built
for them were ready, a great part of them
had no other sheher from the cold than
what was afforded them by holes dug in
the ground, covered with what they could
procure, and the greatest part of them pe-
rished. Only seven thousand remained a
few years afterwards. Another colony
from Italy to the banks of the Borysthenes
had, he says, no better fate, .owing to the
bad management of those, who were com-
missioned to provide for them.
It is needless to add to these instances, as
the accounts given of the difficulties expe-
rienced in new settlements are all nearly-
similar. It has been justly observed by a
correspondent of Dr. Franklin, that one of
the reasons why we have seen so many
fruitless attempts to settle colonies at an
immense public and private expense by se-
veral of the powers of Europe is, that the
moral
Ch. iv. Of Emigration. 295
moral and mechanical habits adapted to the
mother country are frequently not so to the
new-settled one, and to external events,
many of which are unforeseen ; and that it
is to be remarked that none of the Enghsh
colonies became any way considerable, till
the necessary manners were born and grew
up in the country. Pallas particularly no-
tices the want of proper habits in the colo-
nies established by Russia, as one of the
causes why they did not increase so fast as
might have been expected.
In addition to this, it may be observed,
that the first establishment of a new colony
generally presents an instance of a country
peopled considerably beyond its actual
produce ; and the natural consequence
seems to be, that this population, if not
amply supplied by the mother country,
should at the commencement be diminished
to the level of the first scanty productions,
and not begin permanently to increase, till
the remaining numbers had so far culti-
vated the soil, as to make it yield a quan-
tity of food more than sufficient for their
own support ; and which consequently
they
296 Of Emigratimi. Bk. iii.
they could divide with a family. The
frequent failures in the establishment of
new colonies tend strongly to shew the
order of precedence between food and
population.
It must be acknowledged then, that the
class of people, on whom the distress arising
from a too rapidly increasing population
would principally fall, could not possibly
begin a new colony in a distant country.
From the nature of their situation, tliey
must necessarily be deficient in those re-
sources, which alone could ensure success ;
and unless they could find leaders among
the higher classes urged by the spirit of
avarice or enterprise, or of religious or po-
litical discontent ; or were furnished with
means and support by government ; what-
ever degree of misery they might sufi'er in
their own country from the scarcity of sub-
sistence, they would be absolutely unable
to take possession of any of those unculti-
vated regions, of which tliere is such an ex-
tent on the earth.
When new colonies have been once se-
curely established, the difficult}^ of emi-
gration
Ch. iv. Of Emigration, 297
gration is indeed very considerably dimi-
nished ; yet, even then, some resources are
necessary to provide vessels for the voyage,
and support and assistance till the emigrants
can settle themselves, and find employment
in their adopted country. How far it is
incumbent upon a government to furnish
these resources may be a question ; but
Avhatever be its duty in this particular, per-
haps it is too much to expect that, except
where any particular colonial advantages
are proposed, emigration should be actively
assisted.
The necessary resources for transport and
maintenance are however frequently fur-
nished by individuals or private companies.
For many years before the American war,
and for some few since, the facilities of
emigration to this new world, and the pro-
bable advantages in view, were unusually
great ; and it must be considered undoubt-
edly as a very happy circumstance for
any country, to have so comfortable an
asylum for its redundant population. But
I would ask whether, even during these
periods, the distress among the common
people
298 Of Emigration. Bk. iii.
people in this country was little or nothing ;
and whether every man felt secure before
he ventured on marriage, that, however
large his family might be, he should find
no difficulty in supporting it without pa-
rish assistance. The answer, I fear, could
not be in the affirmative.
It will be said that, when an opportunity
of advantageous emigration is offered, it is
the fault of the people themselves, if instead
of accepting it they prefer a life of celibacy
or extreme poverty in their own country.
Is it then a fault for a man to feel an at-
tachment to his native soil, to love the
parents that nurtured him, his kindred, his
friends and the companions of his early
years ? Or is it no evil that he suffers, be-
cause he consents to bear it rather than
snap these cords which nature has wound
in close and intricate folds round the hu-
man heart ? The great plan of Providence
seems to require, indeed, that these ties
should sometimes be broken ; but the sepa-
ration does not, on that account, give less
pain; and though the general good may be
promoted by it, it does not cease to be an
individual
Ch. iv. Of Emigration. 299
individual evil. Besides, doubts and un-
certainty must ever attend all distant
emigrations, particularly in the apprehen-
sions of the lower classes of people. They
cannot feel quite secure, that the represen-
tations made to them of the high price of
labour or the cheapness of land, are accu-
rately true. They are placing themselves in
the power of the persons who are to furnish
them with the means of transport and main-
tenance, who may perhaps have an interest
in deceiving them ; and the sea which they
are to pass, appears to them like the sepa-
ration of death from all their former con-
nexions, and in a manner to preclude the
possibility of return in case of failure, as
they cannot expect the offer of the same
means to bring them back. We cannot be
surprised then, that, except where a spirit
of enterprise is added to the uneasiness of
poverty, the consideration of these circum-
stances should frequently
" Make them rather bear the ills they suffer,
" Than fly to others which they know not of."
If a tract of rich land as large as this
island were suddenly amiexed to it, and
sold
300 Of Emigration. Bk.iii
sold in small lots, or let out in small farms,
the case avouIcI be very different, and the
melioration of the state of the common peo-
ple would be sudden and striking ; though
the rich would be continually complaining
of the high price of labour, the pride of the
lower classes and the difficulty of getting
work done. These, I understand, are not
unfrequent complaints among the men of
property in America.
Every resource however from emigra-
tion, if used eifectually, as this would be,
must be of short duration. There is scarcely
a state in Europe, except perhaps Russia,
the inhabitants of which do not often en-
deavour to better their condition by re-
moving to other countries. As these
states therefore have nearly all rather a
redundant than deficient population, in
proportion to their produce, they cannot
be supposed to afibrd any effectual re-
sources of emigration to each other. Let
us suppose for a moment, that in this more
enhghtened part of the globe, the internal
economy of each state were so admirably
regulated, that no checks existed to popu-
lation,
Ch. iv. Of Emigration. 301
lalion, and that the different governments
provitled every facihty for emigration.
Taking the population of Europe, exchiding
Russia, at a hundred milHons, and allowing
a greater increase of produce than is pro-
bable, or even possible, in the mother coun-
tries, the redundancy of parent stock in a
single century would be eleven hundred
millions, which, added to the natural in-
crease of the colonies during the same time,
would more than double what has been
supposed to be the present population of
the whole earth.
Can we imagine, that in the uncultivated
parts of Asia, Africa or America, the
greatest exertions and the best-directed en-
deavours could, in so short a period, prepare
a quantity of land sufficient for the support
of such a population ? If any sanguine per-
son should I'eel a doubt upon the subject,
let him only add 25 or 50 years more, and
every doubt must be crushed in overwhelm-
ing conviction.
It is evident therefore, that the reason
why the resource of emigration has so long
continued to be held out as a remedy to
redundant
S02 Of Emigration. Bk. iii.
redundant population is, because, from the
natural unwillingness of people to desert
their native country, and the difficulty of
clearing and cultivating fresh soil, it never
is or can be adequately adopted. If this
remedy were indeed really effectual, and
had power so far to relieve the disorders of
vice and misery in old states, as to place
them in the condition of the most prosper-
ous new colonies, we should soon see the
phial exhausted ; and when the disorders
returned with increased virulence, every
hope from this quarter would be for ever
closed.
It is clear therefore, that with any view
of making room for an unrestricted increase
of population, emigration is perfectly in-
adequate ; but as a partial and temporary
expedient, and with a view to the more
general cultivation of the earth, and the
wider extension of civilization, it seems to
be both useful and proper; and if it cannot
be proved that governments are bound
actively to encourage it, it is not only
strikingly unjust, but in the highest degree
impolitic in them to prevent it. There are
no
Ch. iv. Of Emigration, 303
no fears so totally ill-grounded as the fears
of depopulation from emigration. The 'vis
inerticE of the great body of the people, and
their attachment to their homes, are qualities
so strong and general, that we may rest as-
sured they will not emigrate unless, from poli-
tical discontents or extreme poverty, they are
in such a state, as will make it as much for the
advantage of their country as of themselves,
that they should go out of it. The com-
plaints of high wages in consequence of
emigrations are of all others the most un-
reasonable, and ought the least to be at-
tended to. If the wages of labour in any
country be such as to enable the lower
classes of people to live with tolerable com-
fort, we may be quite certain that they
will not emigrate; and if they be not such,
it is cruelty and injustice to detain them.
In all countries the progress of wealth
must depend mainly upon the industry,
skill and success of individuals, and upon
the state and demands of other countries.
Consequently, in all countries, great varia-
tions may take place at different times in
the rate at which wealth increases, and in
the
304 Of Emigration. Bk. iii.
the demand for labour. But though the
progress of population is mainly regulated
by the effective demand for labour, it is
obvious that the number of people cannot
conform itself immediately to the state of
this demand. Some time is required to
brino- more labour into the market when it
is wanted; and some time to check the
supply when it is flowing in with too great
rapidit\^ If these variations amount to no
more than that natural sort of oscillation
noticed in an early part of this work, which
seems almost always to accompany the pro-
gress of population and food, they should
be submitted to as a part of the usual
course of things. But circumstances may
occasionally give them great force, and
then, during the period that the supply of
Jabour is increasing faster than the de-
mand, the labouring classes are subject
to the most severe distress. If, for instance,
from a combination of external and inter-
nal causes, a very great stimulus should be
given to the population of a country for ten or
twelve y ears together, and it should then com-
paratively cease, it is clear that labour will
continue
I
Ch. iv. Of Emigration. 306
continue flowing into the market, with al-
most undiminished rapidity, while the
means of employing and paying it have
been essentially contracted. It is precisely
under these circumstances that emigration
is most useful as a temporary relief ; and it
is in these circumstances that Great Britain
finds herself placed at present*. Though no
emigration should take place, the population
will by degrees conform itself to the state
of the demand for labour ; but the interval
must be marked by the most severe distress,
the amount of which can scarcely be re-
duced by any human efforts ; because,
though it may be mitigated at particular
periods, and as it affects particular classes,
it will be proportion ably extended over a
larger space of time and a greater number
of people. The only real relief in such a
case is emigration ; and the subject at the
present moment is well worthy the atten-
tion of the government, both as a matter of
humanity and pohcy.
' 1816 and 1817-
VOL. II. X CHAP.
( 306 )
CHAP. V
Of Poor-Lazes.
1 O remedy the frequent distresses of the
poor, laws to enforce their reUef have been
instituted ; and in the estabUshment of a ge-
neral system of this kind England has par-
ticularly distinguished herself. But it is to
be feared, that, though it may have allevi-
ated a little the intensity of individual mis-
fortune, it has spread the evil over a much
larger surface.
It is a subject often started in conversa-
tion, and mentioned ahvays as a matter of
great surprise, that, notwithstanding the
immense sum which is annually collected
for the poor in this country, there is still so
much distress among them. Some think
that the money must be embezzled for pri-
vate use; others, that the churchwardens
and overseers consume the greatest part of
it in feasting. All agree that somehow or
other
Ch. V. Of Poor-Law,s. 307
other it must be veiy ill managed. In short,
the fact, that even before the late scarcities
three millions were collected annually for
the poor, and yet that their distresses were
not removed, is the subject of continual as-
tonishment. But a man who looks a little
below the surface of things would be much
more astonished, if the fact were otherAvise
than it is observed to be ; or even if a col-
lection universally of eighteen shillings in
the pound, instead of four, were materially
to alter it.
Suppose, that by a subscription of the
rich the eighteen pence or two shillings,
which men earn now, were made up five
shillings : it might be imagined, perhaps,
that they would then be able to live com-
fortably, and have a piece of meat every
day for their dinner. But this would be a
very false conclusion. The transfer of three
additional shillings a day to each labourer
would not increase the quantity of meat in
the country. There is not at present enough
for all to have a moderate share. What
would then be the consequence? the com-
petition among the buyers in the market of
X 2 meat
308 Of Poor-Laws. Bk. iii .
meat would rapidly raise the price from
eight pence or nine pence to two or three
shillings in the pound, and the commodity
would not be divided among many more
than it is at present. When an article is
scarce, and cannot be distributed to all, he
that can shew the most valid patent, that is,
he that offers the most money, becomes the
possessor. If we can suppose the competi-
tion among the buyers of meat to continue
long enough for a greater number of cattle
to be reared annually, this could only be
done at the expense of the corn, which
would be a very disadvantageous exchange;
for it is well known, that the country could
not then support the same population ; and
when subsistence is scarce in proportion to
the number of people, it is of little conse-
quence, whether the lowest members of the
society possess two shillings or five. They
must, at all events, be reduced to live upon
the hardest fare, and in the smallest quan-
tity.
It might be said, perhaps, that the in-
creased number of purchasers in every ar-
ticle would give a spur to productive indus-
try,
Ch. V. Of Poor-Laws. 309
try, and that the whole produce of the
island would be increased. But the spur
that these fancied riches would give to po-
pulation, would more than counterbalance
it; and the increased produce would be to
be divided among a more than proportion-
ably increased number of people.
A collection from the rich of eighteen
shilhngs in the pound, even if distributed in
the most judicious manner, would have an
effect similar to that resulting from the sup-
position w^hich I have just made; and no
possible sacrifices of the rich, particularly
in money, could for any time j^revent the
recurrence of distress among the lower mem-
bers of society, whoever they were. Great
changes might indeed be made. The rich
might become poor, and some of the poor
rich : but Avhile the present proportion be-
tween population and food continues, a part
of the society must necessarily find it diffi-
cult to support a family, and this difficulty
will naturally fall ou the least fortunate
members.
It may at first appear strange, but I be-
lieve it is true, that I cannot by means of
money
310 Of Poor-Laws. Bk. iii.
money raise the condition of a poor man,
and enable him to live much better than he
did before, without proportion ably depress-
ing others in the same class. If I retrench
the quantity of food consumed in my house,
and give him what I have cut off, I then be-
nefit him without depressing any but myself
and family, who perhaps may be well able
to bear it. If I turn up a piece of unculti-
vated land, and give him the produce, I
then benefit both him and all the members
of society, because what he before con-
sumed is thrown into the common stock,
and probably some of the new produce with
it. But if I only give him money, sup-
posing the produce of the country to remain
the same, I give him a title to a larger share
of that produce than formerly, which share
he cannot receive without diminishing the
shares of others. It is evident that this ef-
fect in individual instances must be so small
as to be totally imperceptible; but still it
must exist, as many other effects do, which,
hke some of the insects that people the air,
elude our grosser perceptions.
Supposing the quantity of food in any
counti'v
Ch. V. Of Poor-laws, 811
country to remain the same for many years
together, it is evident that this food must
be divided according to the value of each
man's patent, or the sum of money w hich
he can afford to spend in this commodity so
universally in request. It is a demonstrative
truth, therefore, that the patents of one set
of men could not be increased in value with-
out diminishing the value of the patents of
some other set of men. If the rich were to
subscribe and give five shillings a day to five
hundred thousand men, without retrenching
their own tables, no doubt can exist, that
as these men would live more at their ease,
and consume a greater quantity of provi-
sions, there would be less food remaining
to divide among the rest ; and consequently
each man's patent would be diminished in
value, or the same number of pieces of sil-
ver would purchase a smaller quantity of
subsistence, and the price of provisions
would universally rise.
These general reasonings have been strik-
ingly confirmed during the late scarcities*.
• The scarcities referred to in this chapter were those
of 1800 and 1801.
The
^12 Of Poor-Laws. Bk.iii.
The supposition which I have made of a
collection from the rich of eighteen shillings
in the pound has been nearly realized ; and
the effect has been such as might have been
expected. If the same distribution had been
made when no scarcity existed, a consider-
able advance in the price of provisions
would have been a necessary consequence;
but foUow^ing as it did a scarcity, its effect
must have been doubly powerful. No per-
son, I believe, w ill venture to doubt, that
if we were to give three additional shillings
a day to every labouring man in the king-
dom, as I before supposed, in order that
he might have meat for his dinner, the price
of meat would rise in the most rapid and un-
exampled manner. But surely, in a defi-
ciency of corn, which renders it impossible
for every man to have his usual share, if we
still continue to furnish each person with
the means of purchasing the same quantity
as before, the effect must be in every respect
similar.
It seems in great measure to have escaped
observation, that the price of corn in a scar-
city will depend much more upon the ob-
stinacy
Ch. V. Of Poor-Laws. 313
stinacy with which the same degree of con-
sumption is persevered in, than on the de-
gree of the actual deficiency. A deficiency
of one half of a crop, if the people could
immediately consent to consume only one
half of what they did before, would pro-
duce little or no effect on the price of corn.
A deficiency of one-twelfth, if exactly the
same consumption were to continue for ten
or eleven months, might raise the price of
corn to almost any height. The more is
given in parish assistance, the more power
is furnished of persevering in the same
consumption, and of course the higher will
the price rise, before the necessary diminu-
tion of consumption is effected.
It has been asserted by some people,
that high prices do not diminish consump-
tion. If this were really true, we should
see the price of a bushel of corn at a hun-
dred pounds or more, in every deficiency,
which could not be fully and completely
remedied by importation. But the fact is,
that high prices do ultimately diminish
consumption ; but on account of the riches
Qf the country, the unwillingness of the
people
314 Of Poor-Laws. Bk. iii.
people to resort to substitutes, and the
immense sums which are distributed by
parishes, this object cannot be attained, till
the prices become excessive, and force even
the middle classes of society, or at least
those immediately above the poor, to save
in the article of bread from the actual in-
ability of purchasing it in the usual quan-
tity. The poor who were assisted by their
parishes, had no reason whatever to com-
plain of the high price of grain ; because
it was the excessiveness of this price, and
this alone, which by enforcing such a saving
left a greater quantity of corn for the con-
sumption of the lowest classes, which corn
the parish allowances enabled them to
command. The greatest sufferers in the
scarcity were undoubtedly the classes im-
mediately above the poor ; and these were
in the most marked manner depressed by
the excessive bounties given to those below
them. Almost all poverty is relative ; and
I much doubt whether these people would
have been rendered so poor, if a sum equal
to half of these bounties had been taken
directly out of their pockets, as they were,
by
Ch. V. Of Poor-laws, 315
by that new distribution of the money of
the society which actually took place*.
This distribution, by giving to the poorer
classes a command of food so much greater,
than that to which their degree of skill and
industry entitled them, in the actual cir-
cumstances of the country, diminished ex-
actly in the same proportion that command
over the necessaries of life, which the classes
above them, by their superior skill and
industry, Avould naturally possess ; and it
may be a question, whether the degree of
^ Supposing the lower classes to earn on an average
ten shillings a week, and the classes just above them
twenty, it is not to be doubted, that in a scarcity these
latter would be more straightened in their power of com-
manding the necessaries of life, by a donation of ten
shillings a week to those below them, than by the sub-
traction of five shillings a week from their own earnings.
In the one case, they would be all reduced to a level ;
the price of provisions would rise in an extraordinary
manner from the greatness of the competition ; and all
would be straightened for subsistence. In the other case,
the classes above the poor would still maintain a consi-
derable part of their relative superiority ; the price of
provisions would by no means rise in the same degree ;
and their remaining fifteen shillings would purchase much
more than their twenty shillings in the former case.
assistance
316 OfPoor-Laws. Bk. iii.
assistance which the poor received, and
which prevented them from resorting to
the use of those substitutes, which in every
other country on such occasions the great
law of necessity teaches, was not more than
overbalanced by the severity of the pressure
on so large a body of people from the ex-
treme high prices, and the permanent evil
which must result from forcing so many
persons on the parish, who before thought
themselves almost out of the reach of want.
If we were to double the fortunes of all
those who possess above a hundred a year,
the effect on the price of grain would be
slow and inconsiderable ; but if we were to
double the price of labour throughout the
kingdom, the effect in raising the price of
grain would be rapid and great. The ge-
neral principles on this subject will not
admit of dispute ; and that, in the parti-
cular case which we have been considering,
the bounties to the poor were of a mag-
nitude to operate very powerfully in
this manner will sufficiently appear, if we
recollect that before the late scarcities the
sum collected for the poor was estimated
at
Ch. V. Of Poor-Laws. 317
at three millions, and that during the year
1801 it was said to be ten millions. An
additional seven millions acting at the bot-
tom of the scale*, and employed exclu-
sively in the purchase of provisions, joined
to a considerable advance in the price of
wages in many parts of the kingdom, and
increased by a prodigious sum expended
in voluntary charity, must have had a most
powerful effect in raising the price of the
necessaries of life, if any reliance can be
placed on the dearest general principles
confirmed as much as possible by appear-
ances. A man with a family has received,
to my knowledge, fourteen shillings a week
from the parish. His common earnings
* See a small pamphlet published in November 1800,
entitled, An Investigation of the Cause of the present high
Price of Provisions. This pamphlet was mistaken by some
for an inquiry into the cause of the scarcity, and as such
it would naturally appear to be incomplete, adverting, a»
it does, principally to a single cause. But the sole ob-
ject of the pamphlet was to give the principal reason for
the extreme high price of provisions, in proportion to the
degree of the scarcity, admitting the deficiency of one-
fourth, as stated in the Duke of Portland's letter; wJiich,
I am much inclined to think, was very neat the truth.
were
318 Of Poor-Laws. Bk. iii.
were ten shillings a week, and his weekly
revenue, therefore, twenty-four. Before the
scarcity he had been in the habit of pur-
chasing a bushel of flour a week with eight
shillings perhaps, and consequently had
two shillings out of his ten, to spare for
other necessaries. During the scarcity he
was enabled to purchase the same quantity
at nearly three times the price. He paid
twenty-two shillings for his bushel of flour,
and had as before two shillings remaining
for other wants. Such instances could not
possibly have been universal, without raising
the price of wheat very much higher than
it really was during an}^ part of the dearth.
But similar instances were by no means
unfrequent ; and the system itself of mea-
suring the relief given by the price of grain
was general.
If the circulation of the country had con-
sisted entirely of specie, which could not
have been immediately increased, it would
have been impossible to give such an addi-
tional sum as seven millions to the poor
without embarrassing to a great degree the
operations of commerce. On the com-
mencement
Ch. V. Of Poor-Laws. 319
mencement therefore of this extensive rehef,
which would necessarily occasion a propor-
tionate expenditure in provisions through-
out all the ranks of society, a great demand
would be felt for an increased circulating
medium. The nature of the medium then
principally in use was such, that it could
be created immediately on demand. From fv . —
the accoun ts of the ban k of_ Englan d ,, as a
laid befpre_Parliament, it appeared, that no ^
very great additional issues of paper took
place^from this quarter. The three millions
and a half added to its former average
issues were not probably much above what
was sufficient to supply the quantity of
specie that had beeu withdrawn from the
circulation. If this supposition be true,
(and the small quantity of gold which made
its appearance at that time furnishes the
strongest reason for believing that nearly
as much as this must have been withdrawn),
it would follow that the part of the circu-
lation originating in the bank of England,
though changed in its nature, had not been
much increased in its quantity; and with
regard to the effect of the circulating me-
dium
Of Poor- Laws. Bk. iii .
dium on the prices of all commodities it
cannot be doubted that it would be pre-
cisely the same, whether this medium were
made up principally of guineas, or of pound-
notes and shillings which would pass cur-
rent for guineas.
The demand therefore for an increased
circulating medium was left to be supplied
principally by the country banks, and it
could not be expected that they should
hesitate in taking advantage of so profitable
an opportunity. The paper issues of a
country bank are, as I conceive, measured
by the quantity of its notes which will re-
main in circulation ; and this quantity is
again measured, supposing a confidence to
be established, by the sum of what is wanted
to carry on all the money transactions of
the neighbourhood. From the high price
of provisions, all these transactions became
more expensive. In the single article of
the weekly payment of labourers' wages,
including the parish allowances, it is evi-
dent that a very great addition to the
circulating medium of the neighbourhood
would be wanted. Had the country banks
attempted
Cii. V. Of Poor-Laws. 321
attempted to issue the same quantity of
paper without sucli a particular demand
for it, they would (juickly have been ad-
monished of their error by its rapid and
pressing return upon them ; but at this
time it was wanted for immediate and daily
use, and was therefore eagerly absorbed into
the circulation.
It may even admit of a question, whe-
ther under similar circumstances the coun-
try banks would not have issued nearly the
same quantity of paper, if the bank of
England had not been restricted from pay-
ment in specie. Before this event the issues
of the country banks in paper were regu-
lated by the quantity that the circulation
would take up ; and after, as well as be-
fore, they Avere obliged to pay the notes
which returned upon them in bank of
England circulation. The difference in
the two cases would arise principally
from the pernicious custom, adopted
since the restriction of the bank, of is-
suing one and two pound notes, and from
the little preference that many people
might feel, if they could not get gold, be-
voL. II. Y tween
322 Of Poor-Laws. Bk. iii.
tween country bank paper and bank of
England paper.
\ The very great issue of country bank
[ paper during the years 1800 and 1801 was
/ evidently therefore, in its origin, rather a
/ consequence than a cause of the high price
of provisions ; but being once absorbed
into the circulation, it must necessarily
affect the price of all commodities, and
throw very great obstacles in the way of
returning cheapness. This is the great
mischief of the system. During the scarcity,
it is not to be doubted that the increased
circulation, by preventing the embarrass-
ments which commerce and speculation
must otherwise have felt, enabled the coun-
try to continue all the branches of its trade
with less interruption, and to import a
much greater quantity of grain, than it
could have done otherwise ; but to over-
balance these temporary advantages, a
lasting evil might be entailed upon the
community, and the prices of a time of
scarcity might become permanent, from
the difficulty of reabsorbing this increased
circulation.
In
Ch. V. Of Poor-laws. 323
In this respect, however, it is much better
that the great issue of paper should have
come from the country banks than from
the bank of England. During the restric-
tion of payment in specie, there is no pos-
sibility of forcing the bank to retake its
notes when too abundant ; but with regard
to the country banks, as soon as their notes
are not wanted in the circulation, they will
be returned ; and if the bank of England
notes be not increased, the whole circulating
medium will thus be diminished.
We may consider ourselves as peculiarly
fortunate, that the two years of scarcity
were succeeded by two events the best cal-
culated to restore plenty and cheapness —
an abundant harvest and a peace ; which
together produced a general conviction of
plenty, in the minds both of buyers and
sellers ; and by rendering the first slow to
purchase, and the others eag^r to sell, oc-
casioned a glut in the market, and a conse-
quent rapid fall of price, which has enabled
parishes to take oft' their allowances to the
poor, and thus to prevent a leturn of high
Y 2 prices,
324 Of Pour Laws. Bk. iii.
prices, when the alarm among the sellers
was over.
If the two years of scarcity had been
succeeded merely by years of average
crops, I am strongly disposed to believe,
that, as no glut would have taken place in
the market, the price of grain would have
fallen only in a comparatively inconsider-
able degree, the parish allowances could
not have been resumed, the increased quan-
tity of paper would still have been wanted,
and the price of all commodities might by
degrees have been regulated permanently
according to the increased circulating
medium.
If instead of giving the temporary as-
sistance of parish allowances, which might
be withdrawn on the first fall of price, we
had raised universally the wages of labour,
it is evident, that the obstacles to a dimi-
nution of the circulation and to returning
cheapness would have been still farther
increased ; and the high price of labour
would have become permanent, without
any advantage whatever to the labourer.
There is no one that more ardently de-
sires
Ch. V. Of Poor-Laxvs. 325
sires to see a real advance in the price of
labour than myself; but the attempt to ef-
fect this object by forcibly raising the no-
minal price, which was practised to a cer-
tain degree, and recommended almost
universally during the late scarcities, every
thinking man must reprobate as puerile
and ineffectual.
The price of labour, when left to find its
natural level, is a most important political
barometer, expressing the relation between
the supply of provisions, and the demand
for them ; betwecni the quantity to be con-
sumed and the number of consumers ; and
taken on the average, independently of ac-
cidental circumstances, it further expresses
clearly the wants of the society respecting
population ; that is, whatever may be the
number of children to a marriage neces-
sary to maintain exactly the present popu-
lation, the price of labour will be just suf-
ficient to support this number, or be above
it, or below it, according to the state of
the real funds for the maintenance of la-
bour, whether stationary, progressive or
retrograde. Instead, however, of consider-
326 Of Poor-laws. Bk. iii.
ing it in this light, we consider it as some-
thing which we may raise or depress at
pleasure, something which depends prin-
cipally upon His Majesty's justices of the
peace. When an advance in the price of
provisions already expresses that the de-
mand is too great for the supply, in order
to put the labourer in the same condition
as before, we raise the price of labour, that
is, we increase the demand, and are then
much surprised that the price of provisions
continues rising. In this we act much in
the same manner as if, when the quick-
silver in the common weather-glass stood
at stormy, we were to raise it by some me-
chanical pressure to settled fair, and then
be greatly astonished that it continued
raining.
Dr. Smith has clearly shown, that the
natural tendency of a year of scarcity is
either to throw a number of labourers out
of employment, or to oblige them to Avork
for less than they did before, from the in-
ability of masters to employ the same num-
ber at the same price. The raising of the
price of wages tends necessarily to throw
more
i
Ch. V. Of Poor-Laxcs. 327
more out employment, and completely to
prevent the good effects, which, he says,
sometimes arise from a year of moderate
scarcit}^ that of making the lower classes
of people do more work, and become more
careful and industrious. The number of
servants out of place, and of manufac-
turers wanting employment during the late
scarcities, were melancholy proofs of the
truth of these reasonings. If a general rise
in the wages of labour had taken place
proportioned to the price of provisions,
none but farmers and a few gentlemen
could have afforded to employ the same
number of workmen as before. Additional
crowds of servants and manufacturers w^ould
have been turned off; and those w^ho were
thus thrown out of employment would of
course have no other refuge than the parish.
In the natural order of things a scarcity
must tend to lower, instead of to raise, the
price of laboiu*.
After the publication and general circu-
lation of such a work as Adam Smith's, I
confess it appears to me strange, that so
many men, who would yet aspire to be
thought
Of Poor-Laws. Bk. iii.
thought pohtical economists, should still
think that it is in the power of the justices
of the peace, or even of the omnipotence of
parliament, to alter by 2t.jiat th^ whole cir-
cumstances of the country ; and when the
demand for provisions is greater than the
supply, by publishing a particular edict,
to make the supply at once equal to or
greater than the demand. Many men,
who would shrink at the proposal of a
maximum, would propose themselves, that
the price of labour should be proportioned
to the price of provisions, and do not seem
to be aware that the two proposals are
very nearly of the same nature, and that
both tend directly to famine. It matters
not whether we enable the labourer to pur-
chase the same quantity of provisions
which he did before, by fixing their price,
or by raising in proportion the price of
labour. The only advantage on the side
of raising the price of labour is, that the
rise in the price of provisions, which ne-
cessarily follows it, encourages importation :
but putting importation out of the question,
which might possibly be prevented by war,
or
Ch. V. Of Poor-Lazes. 329
or other circumstances, a universal rise of
wages in proportion to the price of pro-
visions, aided by adequate parish allow-
ances to those who were thrown out of
work, would, by preventing any kind of
saving, in the same manner as a max-
inmm, cause the whole crop to be con-
sumed in nine months, which ought to have
lasted twelve, and thus produce a famine.
At the same time we must not forget, that
both humanity and true policy imperiously
require, that we should give every assist-
ance to the poor on these occasions, that
the nature of the case will admit. If pro-
visions were to continue at the price of
scarcity, the wages of labour must neces-
sarily rise, or sickness and famine would
quickly diminish the number of labourers ;
and the supply of labour being unequal to
the demand, its price would soon rise in a
still greater proportion than the price of
provisions. But even one or two years of
scarcity, if the poor were left entirely to
shift for themselves, might produce some
effect of this kind, and consequently it is
our interest, as well as our duty, to give
them
330 Of Poor-Laws. Bk.iii.
them temporary aid in such seasons of dis-
tress. It is on such occasions that every
cheap substitute for bread, and every mode
of economizing food should be resorted to.
Nor should we be too ready to complain
of that high price of corn, which by en-
couraging importation increases the supply.
As the inefficacy of poor laws, and of
attempts forcibly to raise the price of la-
bour, is most conspicuous in a scarcity, I
have thought myself justified in considering
them under this view ; and as these causes
of increased price received great additional
force during the late scarcity from the in-
crease of the circulating medium, I trust,
that the few observations which I have
made on this subject will be considered as
an allowable digression.
I
CHAP.
( 331 )
CHAP. VI.
Of Poor-Lazi)Sy continued.
Independently of any considera-
tions respecting a^year of deficieiU crt^ps, it
is evident, that an increase of pHipiilation,
without a proportional increase oftboci, iniist
lower the value of each man's earnnigs.
The food must necessarily be distributed
in smaller quantities, and consequently
a day's labour will purchase a smaller
quantity of provisions. An increase in
the price of provisions will arise either
from an increase of population faster than
the means of subsistence, or from a dif-
ferent distribution of the money of tlie so-
ciety. The food of a country which has
been long peopled, if it be increasing, in-
creases slowly and regularly, and cannot be
made to answer any sudden demands ; but
variations in the distribution of the money of
the society are not unfrequently occurring,
and
332 Of Poor-Laws, continued. Bk. iii.
and are undoubtedly among the causes
which occasion the continual variations in
the prices of provisions.
The poor laws of England tend to de-
press the general condition of the poor in
these two ways. Their first obvious ten-,
dency is to increase population without
increasing the food for its support. A
poor man may marry with little or no pro-
spect of being able to support a family
without parish assistance. They may be
said, therefore, to create the poor which
they maintain ; and as the provisions of the
country must, in consequence of the in-
creased population, be distributed to every
man in smaller proportions, it is evident
that the labour of those who are not sup-
ported by parish assistance will purchase a
smaller quantity of provisions than before,
and consequently more of them must be
driven to apply for assistance.
Secondly ; the quantity of provisions con-
sumed in workhouses, upon a part of the
society that cannot in general be consi-
dered as the most valuable part, diminishes
the shares that would otherwise belong to
more
Cli. vi. of Poor-Laws, continued. 333
more industrious and more worthy mem-
bers, and thus, in the same manner, forces
more to become dependent. If the poor in
the workhouses were to hve better than
they do now, this new distribution of the
money of the society would tend more con-
spicuously to depress the condition of those
out of the workhouses by occasioning an
advance in the price of provisions.
Fortunately for England, a spirit of in-
dependence still remains among the i>ea-
santry. The poor laws are strongly calcu-
lated to eradicate this spirit. They have
succeeded in part ; but had they succeeded
as completely as might have been expected,
their pernicious tendency would not have
been so long concealed.
Hard as it may appear in individual in-
stances, dependent poverty ought to be
held disgraceful. Such a stimulus seems
to be absolutely necessary to promote the
happiness of the great mass of mankind ;
and every general attempt to weaken this
stimulus, however benevolent its intention,
will always defeat its own purpose. If men
be induced to marry from the mere prospect
of
334 Of Poor- Laws, continued. Bk. iii.
of parish provision, they are not only un-
justly tempted to bring unhappiness and
dependence upon themselves and children,
but they are tempted, without knowing it,
to injure all in the same class with them-
selves.
The poor laws of England appear to have
contributed to raise the price of provisions,
and to lower the real price of labour. They
have therefore contributed to impoverish
that class of people, whose only possession
is their labour. It is also difficult to sup-
pose that they have not powerfully contri-
buted to generate that carelessness and want
of frugality observable among the poor, so
contrary to the disposition generally to be
remarked among petty tradesmen and small
farmers. The labouring poor, to use a vul-
gar expression, seem always to live from
hand to mouth. Their present wants em-
ploy their whole attention ; and they seldom
think of the future. Even when they have
an opportunity of saving, they seldom ex-
ercise it ; but all that they earn bej^ond
their present necessities goes, generally
speaking, to the ale-house. ^The poor-laws
may
Cli. vi. Of Poor-Lazes, continued. 335
may therefore be said to diminish botli the
power and the will to save, among the com-
mon people ; and tlfus to weaken one of
the strongest incentives to sobriety and in-
dustry, and consequently to happiness. ''
It is a general complaint among master
manufacturers, that high wages ruin all
their workmen; but it is difficult to con-
ceive that these men would not save a part
of their high wages for the future support
of their famihes, instead of spending it in
drunkenness and dissipation, if they did not
rely on parish assistance for support in case
of accidents. And that the poor employed
in manufactures consider this assistance as
a reason why they may spend all the wages
which they earn, and enjoy themselves
while they can, appears to be evident, from
the number of families that, upon the fail-
ure of any great manufactory, immediately
fall upon the parish; when perhaps the
wages earned in this manufactory, while it
flourished, were sufficiently above the price
of common country labour, to have allowed
them to save enough for their support, till
they could find some other channel for their
industry. A man
336 Of Poor-Laws^ continued. Bk. iii.
A man who might not be deterred from
going to the ale-house from the consideration
that on his death or siclcness he should leave
his wife and family upon the parish, might
yet hesitate in thus dissipating his earnings,
if he were assured, that in either of these
cases his family must starve, or be left to
the support of casual bounty.
The mass of happiness among the com-
mon people cannot but be diminished, when
one of the strongest checks to idleness and
dissipation is thus removed; and positive
institutions,which render dependent poverty
so general, weaken that disgrace which,
for the best and most humane reasons, ought
to be attached to it.
The poor laws of England were undoubt-
edly instituted for the most benevolent pur-
pose; but it is evident they have failed in
attaining it. They certainly mitigate some
cases of severe distress, which might other-
wise occur ; though the state of the poor who
are supported by parishes, considered in all
its circumstances, is very miserable. But one
of the principal objections to the system is^
that for the assistance which some of the
poor
Ch. vi. of Poor-Laws, continued. 337
poor receive, in itself" almost a doubtful
blessing, the whole class of the connnon
people of England is subjected to a set of
grating, inconvenient and tyrannical \dLVfs,
totally inconsistent with the genuine spirit of
the constitution. The whole business of
settlements, even in its present amended
state, is contradictory to all ideas of free-
dom. The parish persecution of men
whose families are likely to become charge-
able, and of poor women who are near ly-
ing in, is a most disgraceful and disgusting
tyranny. And the obstructions continually
occasioned in the market of labour by these
laws have a constant tendency to add to
the difficulties of those, who are struggling
to support themselves without assistance.
These evils attendant on the poor-laws
seem to be irremediable. If assistance be
to be distributed to a certain class of people,
a power must be lodged somewhere of dis-
criminating the proper objects, and of ma-
naging the concerns of the institutions that
are necessary ; but any great interference
with the aftairs of other people is a species
of tyranny, and in the common course of
VOL. II. z things^
v^'
338 Of Poor-LaxvSj continued. Bk. iiL
things, the exercise of this power may be
expected to become grating to those who
are driven to ask for support. The tyranny
of churchwardens and overseers is a com-
mon complaint among the poor ; but the
fault does not lie so much in these persons,
who probably before they were in power
were not worse than other people, but in
the nature of all such institutions.
I feel persuaded that if the poor-laws had
never existed in this country, though there
might have been a few more instances of
very severe distress, the aggregate mass
of happiness among the common people
would have been much greater than it is at
/I
present. ^ '
The radical defect of all systems of the
kind is that of tending to depress the condi-
tion of those that are not relieved by pa-
rishes, and to create more poor. If, indeed,
we examine some of our statutes strictly
with reference to the principle of population,
we shall find that they attempt an absolute
impossibility ; and we cannot be surprised,
therefore, that they should constantly fail
in the attainment of their object.
The
Ch. vi. of Poor-Laws, cont'mued. 339
The famous 43d of Elizabeth, which has
been so often referred to and admired,
enacts, that the overseers of the poor
" shall take order from time to time, by
" and with the consent of two or more jus-
" tices, for setting to work the children of
" all such, whose parents shall not by the
" said persons be thought able to keep and
" maintain their children ; and also such
" persons married or unmarried, as, having
" no means to maintain them, use no or-
" dinary and daily trade of life to get their
" living by ; and also to raise, weekly or
" otherwise, by taxation of every inhabit-
" ant, and every occupier of lands in the
" said parish, (in such competent sums as
" they shall think lit,) a convenient stock
*' of tlax, hemp, wool, thread, iron, and
" other necessary ware and stuff, to set the
" poor to work/'
What is this but saying, that the funds
for the maintenance of labour in this coun-
try may be increased at will, and without
limit, by ^jiat of government, or an assess-
ment of the overseers ? Strictly speaking,
this clause is as arrogant and as absurd, as
z 2 if
340 Of Poor-Laws^ continued. Bk. iii.
if it had enacted that two ears of wheat
should in future grow where one only had
grown before. Canute, when he com-
manded the waves not to wet his princely
foot, did not in reality assume a greater
power over the laws of nature. No direc-
tions are given to the overseers how to in-
crease the funds for the maintenance of la-
bour ; the necessit}^ of industry, economy
and enlightened exertion, in the manage-
ment of agricultural and commercial capi-
tal, is not insisted on for this purpose; but
it is expected that a miraculous increase of
these funds should immediately follow an
edict of the government used at the discre-
tion of some ignorant parish ofEcers.
If this clause were really and bona fide
put in execution, and the shame attending
the receiving of parish assistance worn off,
every labouring man might many as early
as he pleased, under the certain prospect of
having all his children properly provided
for ; and as, according to the supposition,
there would be no check to population
from the consequences of poverty after
marriage, the increase of people would be
rapid
Ch. vi. Oj' Poor-Laws, continued. 341
rapid beyond example in old states/ After
what has been said in the former parts of
this work, it is submitted to the reader,
whether the utmost exertions of the most
enlightened government could, in this case,
make the food keep pace with the popula-
tion ; much less a mere arbitrary edict, the
tendency of which is certainly rather to di-
minish than to increase the funds for the
maintenance of productive labour.
In the actual circumstances of every
country, the prolific power of nature seems
to be always ready to exert nearly its full
force; but within the limit of possibility,
there is nothing perhaps more improbable,
or more out of the reach of any government
to effect, than the direction of the industry
of its subjects in such a manner, as to pro-
duce the greatest quantity of human suste^
nance that the earth could bear. It evi-
dently could not be done without the most
complete violation of the law of property,
from which every thing that is valuable to
man has hitherto arisen. Such is the dispo-
sition to marr}^ particularly in very young
people, that, if the dithcul ties of providing
for
342 Of Poar-Laxcs, coiUinned. Bk. iii,
for a family were entirely removed, very
few would remain single at twenty-two.
But what statesman or rational government
could propose that all animal food should
be prohibited, that no horses should be used
for business or pleasure, that all the people
should live upon potatoes, and that the
whole industry of the nation should be ex-
erted in the production of them, except
what was required for the mere necessaries
of clothing and houses? Could such a re-
volution be effected, would it be desirable ?
particularly as in a few years, notwith-
standing all these exertions, want, with less
resource than ever, would inevitably recur.
After a country has once ceased to be in
the peculiar situation of a new colony, we
shall always find that in the actual state of
its cultivation, or in that state which may
rationally be expected from the most en-
lightened government, the increase of its
food can never allow for any length of time
an unrestricted increase of population ; and
therefore the due execution of the clause in
the 43d of Elizabeth, as a permanent law,
is a physical impossibility.
It
Ch. vi. Of Poor-Lazvs, continued. 343
It will be said, perhaps, that the fact
contradicts the theory ; and that the clause
in question has remained in force, and has
been executed, during the last two hundred
years. In answer to this, I should say
without hesitation, that it has not really
been executed ; and that it is merely owing
to its incomplete execution, that it remains
on our statute-book at present.
The scanty relief granted to persons in
distress, the capricious and insulting man-
ner in which it is sometimes distributed by
the overseers, and the natural and becoming
pride, not yet quite extinct among the
peasantry of England, have deterred the
more thinking and virtuous part of them
from venturing on marriage, without some
better prospect of maintaining their fami-
lies than mere parish assistance. The desire
of bettering our condition, and the fear of
making it worse, like the vis mtdicatrix na-
tur<2 in physics, is the vis medicatmv jeipiiblica
in politics, and is continually counteracting
the disorders arising from narrow human
institutions. In spite of the prejudices in
favour of population, and the direct encou-
ragements
344 Of Poor- Laxvs, continued. Bk. iii.
ragements to marriage from the poor-laws,
it operates as a preventive check to in-
crease; and happy for this country is it,
that it does so. But besides that spirit of
independence and prudence, which checks
the frequency of marriage, notwithstanding
the encouragements of the poor-laws, these
laws themselves occasion a check of no
inconsiderable magnitude, and thus coun-
teract with one hand what they encourage
with the other. As each parish is obliged
to maintain its own poor, it is naturally
fearful of increasing their number; and
every landholder is in consequence more
inclined to pull down than to build cot-
tages, except when the demand for la-
bourers is really urgent. This deficiency of
cottages operates necessarily as a strong
check to marriage ; and this check is pro-
bably the principal reason why we have
been able to continue the system of the
poor-laws so long.
Tliose who are not prevented for a time
from marrying by these causes, are either
relieved very scantily at their own homes,
where they suffer all the consequences
arising
Ch. vi. Of Poor- Laws, continued. 345
arising from squalid poverty ; or they are
crowded together in close and unwholesome
workhouses, where a great mortality almost
universally takes place, particularly among
the young children. The dreadful account
given by Jonas Hanway of the treatment of
parish children in London is well known ;
and it appears from Mr. Howlett and other
writers, that in some parts of the country
their situation is not very much better. A
great part of the redundant population oc-
casioned by the poor-laws is thus taken
off by the operation of the laws themselves,
or at least by their ill execution. The re-
maining part which survives, by causing
the funds for the maintenance of labour to
be divided among a greater number than
can be properly maintained by them, and
by turning a considerable share from the
support of the diligent and careful work-
man to the support of the idle and negli-
gent, depresses the condition of all those
who are out of the workhouses, forces more
into them every year, and has ultimately
produced the enormous evil, which Ave all
fio justly deplore : that of the great and un-
natural
S46 Of Poor-Laws, continued. Bk.iii.
patural proportion of the people which is
jaow become dependent upon charity.
If this be a just representation of the
manner in which the clause in question has
been executed, and of the effects which it
has produced, it must be allowed that we
have practised an unpardonable deceit upon
the poor, and have promised what we have
been very far from performing.
The attempts to employ the poor on any
great scale in manufactures have almost in-
variably failed, and the stock and materials
have been wasted. In those few parishes
which, by better management or larger
funds, have been enabled to persevere in
this system, the effect of these new manu-
factures in the market must have been to
throw out of employment many indepen-
dent workmen, who were before engaged in
fabrications of a similar nature. This effect
has been placed in a strong point of view
by Daniel de Foe, in an address to parlia-
ment, entitled. Giving Alms no Charity.
Speaking of the employment of parish chil-
dren in manufactures, he says, *' For every
skein of worsted these poor children spin,
there
Ch. vi. Of Poor-Laws, cont'mued. 347
there must be a skein the less spun by some
poor family that spun it before ; and for
every piece of baize so made in London, there
must be a piece the less made at Colchester,
or somewhere else ''/' Sir F. M. Eden, on
the same subject, observes, that " whether
mops and brooms are made by parish
children or by private workmen, no more
can be sold than the public is in want of V
It will be said, perhaps, that the same
reasoning might be applied to any new
capital brought into competition in a par-
* See Extracts from Daniel de Foe, in Sir F. M. Eden's
valuable Work on the poor, vol. i. p. 261.
*• Sir F. M. Eden, speaking of the supposed right of
the poor to be supplied with employment while able to
work, and with a maintenance when incapacitated from
labour, very justly remarks, " It may however be doubted,
" whether any right, the gratification of which seems to
" be impracticable, can be said to exist," vol. i. p. 447.
No man has collected so many materials for forming a
judgment on the effects of the poor-laws as Sir F. M. Eden,
and the result he thus expresses : " Upon the whole there-
" fore there seems to be just grounds for concluding,
" that the sum of good to be expected from a compulsory
" maintenance of the poor will be far outbalanced by the
*' sum of evil which it will inevitably create," vul. i.
p. 467 — I am happy to have the sanction of so practical
an inquirer to my opinion of the poor-laws.
ticular
348 Of Poor-LawSi continued. Bk. iii\
ticular trade or manufacture, which can
rarely be done without injuring, in some
degree, those that were engaged in it before.
But there is a material difference in the two
cases. In this the competition is perfectl}^
fair, and what every man on entering into
business must lay his account to. He ma}?
rest secure that he will not be supplanted,
unless his competitor possess superior skill
and industry. In the other case the com-
petition is supported by a great bounty ; by
which means, notwithstanding very inferior
skill aqd industry on the part of his com-
petitors, the independent workman may be
undersold, and unjustly excluded from the
market. He himself perhaps is made to
contribute to this competition against his own
earnings ; and the funds for the maintenance
of labour are thus turned from the support
of a trade which yields a proper profit, to
one which cannot maintain itself without a
bounty. It should be observed in general,
that when a fund for the maintenance of
labour is raised by assessment, the greatest
part of it is not a new capital brought into
trade, but an old one, which before was
much
Ch. vi. Of Poor- Laws, continued. 349
much more protitiibly employed, turned
into a new chcinnel. The farmer pays to
the poor's rates, for the encouragement of a
bad and unprofitable manufacture, what he
would have employed on his land with in-
finitely more advantage to his country. In
the one case, the funds for the maintenance
of labour are daily diminished ; in the other,
daily increased. And this obvious tendency
of assessments for the employment of the
poor, to decrease the real funds for the main-
tenance of labour in any country, aggravates
the absurdity of supposing that it is in the
power of a government to find employment
for all its subjects, however fast they may
increase.
It is not intended that these reasonings
should be applied against every mode of
employing the poor on a limited scale, and
with such restrictions as may not encourage
at the same time their increase. I would never
wish to push general principles too far ;
though I think that they ought always to be
kept in view. In particular cases the indi-
vidual good to be obtained may be so
great, and the general evil so slight, that
the
350 Of Poor-LawSy contimied. Bk. iii.
the former may clearly overbalance the
latter.
My intention is merely to shew that the
poor-laws as a general system are founded
on a gross error: and that the common de-
clamation on thesubjectof the poor, which
we see so often in print, and hear conti-
nually in conversation, namely, that the
market price of labour ought always to be
sufficient decently to support a family, and
that employment ought to be found for all
those who are willing to work, is in effect
to say, that the funds for the maintenance
of labour in this country are not only infi-
nite, but not subject to variation ; and that,
whether the resources of a country be ra-
pidly progressive, slowly progressive, sta-
tionary or declining, the power of giving
full employment and good wages to the
labouring classes must always remain ex-
actly the same, — a conclusion which con-
tradicts the plainest and most obvious
principles of supply and demand, and in-
volves the absurd position that a definite
quantity of territory can maintain an infi-
nite population,
CHAR
( 351 )
CHAP. vir.
Of Poor-Laws, continued.
1 HE remarks made in the last chapter
on the nature and effects of the poor-laws
have been in the most striking manner
confirmed by the experience of the years
1815, 1816 and 1817- During these years,
two points of the very highest importance
have been established, so as no longer to
admit of a doubt in the mind of any rational
man.
The first is, that the country does not in )
point of fact fulfil the promise which it makes i
to the poor in the poor-laws, to maintain /
and find in employment, by means of parish '
assessments, those who are unable to sup- (
port themselves or their families, either
from want of work or any other cause. i
And secondly, that with a very great in- 1
crease of legal parish assessments, aided by ■
the most liberal and praiseworthy contri-
butions
352 Of Poor-LawSf continued. Bk. iii.
butions of voluntary charity, the country
has been wholly unable to find adequate
employment for the numerous labourers
and artificers who were able as well as
willing to work.
It can no longer surely be contended
that the poor-laws really perform what
they promise, when it is known that many
almost starvino; families have fceen found
in London and other great towns, who are
deterred from going on the parish by the
crowded, unhealthy and horrible state of
the workhouses into which they would be
received, if indeed they could be received at
all ; when it is known that' many parishes
have been absolutely unable to raise the ne-
cessary assessments, the increase of which,
according to the existing laws, have tended
\ only to bring more and more persons upon
\ the parish, and to make Ayjiat was collected
j less and less effectual ; and when it is
i— known that there has been an almost uni-
versal cry from one end of the kingdom to
the other for voluntary charity to come in
aid of the parochial assessments.
These strong indications of the ineffi-
ciency
Ch. vii. Of Poor-LaxvSy contimted. 353
ciency of the poor-laws, may merely be
considered, not only as incontrovertible
proofs of the tact that they do not perform
what tlicy promise, but as affording the
strongest presumption that they cannot do
it. The best of all reasons for the breach
of a promise, is, the absolute impossibility
of executing it ; indeed it is the only plea
that can ever be considered as valid. But
though it may be fairly pardonable not to
execute an impossibility, it is unpardonable
knowingly to promise one. And if it be
still thought advisable to act upon these
statutes as far as is practicable, it would
surely be wise so to alter the terms in which
they are expressed, and the general inter-
pretation given to them, as not to convey to
the poor a false notion of what really is
within the range of practicability.
It has appeared further as a matter of
fact, that very large voluntary contribu-
tions, combined with greatly increased
parochial assessments, and aided by the
most able and incessant exertions of indi-
viduals, have failed to give the necessary
employment to those who have been thrown
VOL. II- 2 A out
354 Of Poor-Lazvs, continued. Bk. iii.
out of work by the sudden falling off of
demand which has occurred during the last
two or three years.
It might perhaps have been foreseen
that, as the great movements of society, the
great causes which render a nation pro-
gressive, stationary or declining, for longer
or shorter periods, cannot be supposed ^to
depend mu^h upon parochial assessments
or the contributions of charity, it could not
be expected that any efforts of this kind
should have power to create in a stationary
or declining state of things that effective
demand for labour which only belongs to
a progressive state. But to those who did
not see this truth before, the melancholy
experience of the last two years must have
brought it home with an overpowering con-
viction.
It does not however by any means follow
that the exertions which have been made
to relieve the present distresses have been
ill directed. On the contrary, they have
not only been prompted by the most praise-
worthy motives ; they have not only ful-
filled the great moral duty of assisting our
• fellow-
Ch. vii. Of Poor-Laws, conti?2uecI. 35-3
fellow-creatures in distress ; but they have
in point of fact done great good, or at least
prevented great evil. Their partial failure
does not necessarily indicate either a want/
of energy or a want of skill in those who'
have taken the lead in these efforts, but .
merely that a part only of what has been ';
attempted is practicable.
It is practicable to mitigate the violence
and relieve the severe pressure of the present
distress, so as to carry the sufferers through
to better times, though even this can only
be done at the expense of some sacrifices,
not merely of the rich, but of other classes
of the poor. But it is impracticable by
any exertions, either individual or national,
to restore at once that brisk demand for
commodities and labour which has been
lost by events, that, however they may have
originated, are now beyond the power of
control.
The whole subject is surrounded on all
sides by the most formidable difficulties,
and in no state of things is it so necessary
to recollect the saying of Daniel de Foe
quoted in the last chapter. The manufac-
2 A 2 turers
1
356 Of Poor-Laws, continued. Bk.iii.
turers all over the country, and the Spital-
fields weavers in particular, are in a state
of the deepest distress, occasioned imme-
diately and directly by the want of demand
for the produce of their industry, and the
consequent necessity felt by the masters of
turning off many of their workmen, in
order to proportion the supply to the con-
tracted demand. * It is proposed however,
by some well-meaning people, to raise by
subscription a fund for the express purpose
of setting to work again those who have
been turned off by their masters, the effect
of which can only be to continue glutting
a market, already much too fully supplied.
This is most naturally and justly objected
to by the masters, as it prevents them fi:om
withdrawing the supply, and taking the
only course which can prevent the total
destruction of their capitals, and the neces-
sity of turning off all their men instead of
a part.
On the other hand, some classes of mer-
chants and manufacturers clamour very
loudly for the prohibition of all foreign
commodities which may enter into compe-
tition
Ch. vii. Of Poor-Laxv8j continued. 357
tition with domestic products, and interfere,
as they intimate, with the employment of
British industry. But this is most naturally
and most justly deprecated by other classes
of British subjects, who are employed to a
very great extent in preparing and manu-
facturing those commodities which are to
purchase our imports from foreign coun-
tries. And it must be allowed to be per-
fectly true that a court-ball, at which only
British stuffs are admitted, may be the
means of throwing out of employment in
one quarter of the country just as many
persons as it furnishes with employment in
another.
Still, it would be desirable if possible to
employ those that are out of work, if it
were merely to avoid the bad moral eftects
of idleness, and of the evil habits which
might be generated by depending for a
considerable time on mere alms. But the
difficulties just stated will shew, that
we ought to proceed in this part of the
attempt with great caution, and that the
kinds of employment which ought to be
chosen aie those, the results of which will
358 Of Poor-Laxvs^ continued. Bk.iii.
not interfere with existing capitals. Such
are pubhc works of all descriptions, the
maMhg and repairing of roads, bridges,
railways, canals, &c. ; and now perhaps,
since the great loss of agricultural capital,
almost every sort of labour upon the land,
which could be carried on by public sub-
scription.
[ Yet even in this way of employing la-
: hour, the benefit to some must bring with
it disadvantages to others. That portion
of each person's revenue which might go in
subscriptions of this kind, must of course
be lost to the various sorts of labour which
its expenditure in the usual channels would
"nave supported ; and the want of demand
thus occasioned in these channels must
cause the pressure of distress to be felt in
quarters which might otherwise have es-
caped it. But this is an effect which, in
; such cases, it is impossible to avoid ; and, as
; a temporary measure, it is not only chari-
\ table but just, to spread the evil over a
\larger surface, in order that its violence on
particular parts may be so mitigated as to
be made bearable by all.
The
Ch. vii. Of Poor-Laws, continued. -359
The^etU object to be kept in view, is to
support the people through their present
distresses, in the hope (and I trust a just
one) of better times. The difficulty is
without doubt considerably aggravated by
the prodigious stimulus which has been
given to the population of the coinitry of
late years, the effects of which cannot sud-
denly subside. But it will be seen pro-
bably, when the next returns of the popula-
tion are made, that the marriages and births
have diminished, and the deaths increased
in a still oreater deoree than in 1800 and
1801; and the continuance of this effect to
a certain degree for a few years will retard
the progress of the population, and com-
bined with the increasing wants of Europe
and America from their increasino- riches,
and the adaptation of the supply of com-
modities at home to the new distribution
of wealth occasioned by the alteration of
the circulating medium, will again give life
and energy to all our mercantile and agri-
cultural transactions, and restore theu la-
bouring classes to full employment and
good wages. _
9G0 Of Poor-Laws, continued, Bk. iii.
On the subject of the distresses of the
poor, and pai ticularlj the increase of pau-
perism of late years, the most erroneous
opinions have been circulated. During the
progress of the war, the increase in the pro-
portion of persons requiring parish assist-
ance was attributed chiefly to the high
price of the necessaries of life. We have
seen these necessaries of life experience a
great and sudden fall, and yet at the same
time a still larger proportion of the popu-
lation requiring parish assistance.
It is now said that taxation is the sole
cause of their distresses, and of the extraor-
dinary stagnation in the demand for labour;
yet I feel the firmest conviction^ that if the
whole of the taxes were removed to-morrow,
this stagnation, instead of being at an end,
would be considerably aggravated. Such
an event would cause another great and
general rise in the value of the circulating
medium, and bring with it that discourage-
ment to industry with which such a convul-
sion in society must ever be attended. If,
as has been represented, the labouring
classes now pay more than half of what
they
Ch. vii. Of Poor-Laws, continued. 361
they receive in taxes, he must know very
httle indeed of the principles on which the
wages ot" hi hour are regulated, who can for
a moment suppose that, when the commo-
dities on which they are expended have
fallen one half by the removal of taxes,
these wages themselves would still continue
of the same nominal value. Were they to
remain but for a short time the same, while
all com«iodities had fallen, and the circu-
lating medium had been reduced in pro-
portion, it would be quickly seen that mul-
titudes of them would be at once thro\vn
out of employment.
The effects of taxation are no doubt in
many cases pernicious in a very high de-
gree; but it may be laid down as a rule
which has few exceptions, that the relief
obtained by taking off a tax, is in no respect
equal to the injury inflicted in laying it on ;
and generally it may be said that the spe-
cific evil of taxation consists in the check
which it gives to production, rather than
the diminution which it occasions in de-
mand. With regard to all commodities
indeed of home production and home de-
mand,
\
362 Of Foor-Laxvs, continued. Bk. iii.
niand, it is quite certain that the conver-
sion of capital into revenue, which is the
effect of loans, must necessarily increase the
proportion of demand to the supply ; and
I" the conversion of the revenue of individuals
j into the revenue of the government, which
I is the effect of taxes properly imposed,
\ however hard upon the individuals so taxed,
j can have no tendency to diminish the ge-
\ neral amount of demand. It will of course
diminish the demands of the persons taxed
j by diminishing their powers of purchasing ;
; but to the exact amount that the powers
I of these persons are diminished, will the
j powers of the government and of those
• employed by it be increased. If an estate
of five thousand a year has a mortgage
upon it of two thousand, two families, both
in very good circumstances, may be living
upon the rents of it, and both have consi-
derable demands for houses, furniture, car-
riages, broad cloth, silks, cottons, &c. The
man who owns the estate is certainly much
worse off than if the mortgage-deed was
burnt, but the manufacturers and labourers
who supply the silks, broad cloth, cot-
tons,
Ch. vii. Of Poor 'Laws, continued. 363
tons, &c., are so far from being likely to be
benefited b}" such burning, that it would be
a considerable time before the new wants
and tastes of the enriched owner had re-
stored the former demand ; and if he were
to take a fancy to spend his additional in-
come in horses, hounds and menial ser-
vants, which is probable, not only would
the manufacturers and labourers who had
before supplied their silks, cloths and cot-
tons, be thrown out of employment, but the
substituted demand would be very much
less favourable to the increase of the ca-
pital and general resources of the countr}^.
The foregoing illustration represents more
nearly than may generally be imagined the
effects of a national debt on the labouring
classes of society, and the very great mistake
of supposing that, because the demands of
a considerable portion of the connnunity
would be increased by the extinction of
the debt, these increased demands would
not be balanced, and often more than ba-
lanced, by the loss of the demand from the
fundholders and government.
It is by no means intended by these ob-
servations
Of Poor-Laws J continued. Bk. iii.
servations to intimate that a national debt
may not be so heavy as to be extremely
prejudicial to a state. The division and
, distribution of property, which is so bene-
ficial when carried only to a certain extent,
is fatal to production when pushed to ex-
tremity. The division of an estate of five
thousand a year will generally tend to in-
crease demand, stimulate production and
improve the structure of society ; but the
division of an estate of eighty pounds a
year will generally be attended with eftects
directly the reverse.
But, besides the probability that the di-
vision of property occasioned by a national
debt may in many cases be pushed too far,
the process of the division is effected by
means which sometimes greatly embarrass
production. This embarrassment must ne-
cessarily take place to a certain extent in
almost every species of taxation; but under
favourable circumstances it is overcome by
the stimulus given to demand. During
the late war, from the prodigious increase
of produce and population, it may fairly
be presumed that the power of production
was
Ch. vii. Of Poor-Laws, contimied. 365
was not essentially impeded, notwithstand-
ing the enormous amount of taxation ; but
in the state of things which has occurred
since the peace, and under a most extra-
ordinary fall of the exchangeable value of
the raw produce of the land, and a great
consequent diminution of the circulating
medium, the very sudden increase of the
weight and pressure of taxation must
greatly aggravate the other causes which
discourage production. This effect has
been felt to a considerable extent on the
land ; but the distress in this quarter is al-
ready much mitigated ; and among the
mercantile and manufacturing classes, where
the greatest numbers are without employ-
ment, the evil obviously arises, not so much
from the want of capital and the means of
production, as the want of a market for the
commodity when produced — a want, for
which the removal of taxes, however proper,
and indeed absolutely necessary as a per-
manent measure, is certainly not the im-
mediate and specific remedy.
The principal causes of the increase of
pauperism, independently of the present
crisis.
Of Poor-Laws, continued. Bk. iii.
crisis, are, first, the general increase of the
manufacturing system and the unavoidable
variations of manufacturing labour ; and se-
condly, and more particularly, the practice
which has been adopted in some counties,
and is now spreading pretty generally all
over the kingdom, of paying a considerable
portion of what ought to be the wages of
labour out of the parish rates. During the
war, when the demand for labour was great
and increasing, it is quite certain that no-
thing but a practice of this kind could for
any time have prevented the wages of la-
bour from rising fully in proportion to the
necessaries of life, in whatever degree these
necessaries might have been raised by tax-
ation. It was seen, consequently, that in
those parts of Great Britain where this
practice prevailed the least, the wages of
labour rose the most. This was the case
in Scotland, and some parts of the North
of England, where the improvement in the
condition of the labouring classes, and their
increased command over the necessaries
and conveniences of hfe, were particularly
remarkable. And if, in some other parts
of
Cli. vii. Of Poor-LawSy continued. 367
of the country, where the practice did
not greatly prevail, and especially in the
towns, wages did not rise in the same de-
gree, it was owing to the influx and com-
petition of the cheaply raised population
of the surrounding counties.
It is a just remark of Adam Smith, that
the attempts of the legislature to raise the
pay of curates had always been ineffectual,
on account of the cheap and abundant
supply of them, occasioned by the bounties
given to young persons educated for the
church at the universities. And it is equally
true that no human efforts can keep up the
price pf day-labour so as to enable a man
to support on his earnings a family of a
moderate size, so long as those who have
more than two children are considered as
having a valid claim to parish assistance.
If this system were to become universal,
and I own it appears to me that the poor-
laws naturally lead to it, there is no reason
whatever why parish assistance should not
by degrees begin earlier and earlier ; and I
do not hesitate to assert that, if the govern-
ment and constitution of the country were
in
-^
368 ^ Of Poor-Laws^ continued, Bk. iii.
in all other respects as perfect as the wildest
visionary thinks he could make them ; if
parliaments wei'e annual, suffrage uni-
versal, wars, taxes and pensions unknown,
'and the civil list fifteen hundred a year,
the great body of the community might
still be a collection of paupers.
I have been accused of proposing a
law to prohibit the poor from marrying.
This is not true. So far from proposing
such a law, I have distinctly said that,
if any person chooses to marry without
having a prospect of being able to maintain
a family, he ought to have the most perfect
liberty so to do ; and whenever any pro-
hibitory propositions have been suggested
to me as advisable by persons who have
drawn wrong inferences from what I have
said, I have steadily and uniformly repro-
bated them. I am indeed most decidedly
of opinion that any positive law to limit the
age of marriage would be both unjust and
immoral ; and my greatest objection to a
system of equality and the system of the
poor-laws (two systems which, however
different in their outset, are of a nature
calculated
Ch. vii. Of Foor-Laivs, continued. 369
calculated to produce the same results) is,
that the society in which they are effectively
carried into execution, will ultimately be
reduced to the miserable alternative of
choosing between universal want and the
enactment of f//?ec^ laws against marriage.
Wha^ I have _realLy._proposed is ^ very
different measure. It is the gradual and very
gradual abolition of the poor-laws ''. And
the reason why I have ventured to suggest
a proposition of this kind for consideration
is my firm conviction, that they have lowered
very decidedly the wages of the labouring
classes, and made their general condition
essentially worse than it w^ould have been if
these laws had never existed. Their opera-
tion is every where depressing ; but it falls
peculiarly hard upon the labouring classes
in great towns. In country parishes the
poor do really receive some compensation
for their low wages ; their children, beyond
a certain nmnber, are really supported by
the parish; and though it must be a most
grating reflection to a labouring man, that
• So gradual as not to affect any individuals at present
alive, or who will be born within liic next two years.
VOL. rr. 2 b it
370 Of Poor-Laws, continued. Bk. iii.
it is scarcely possible for him to marry with-
out becoming the father of paupers ; yet if
he can reconcile himself to this prospect,
the compensation, such as it is, is no doubt
made to him. But in London and all the
great towns of the kingdom, the evil is suf-
fered without the compensation. The po-
pulation raised by bounties in the country
naturally and necessarily flows into the
towns, and as naturally and necessarily
tends to lower wages in them ; while in point
of fact, those who marry in towns, and have
large families, receive no assistance from
their parishes, unless the}^ are actually starv-
ing; and altogether the assistance which the
manufacturing classes obtain for the sup-
port of their families, in aid of their lowered
wages, is perfectly inconsiderable.
To remedy the effects of this competition
from the country, the artificers and manu-
facturers in towns have been apt to combine,
with a view to keep up the price of labour
and to prevent persons from working below
a certain rate. But such combinations are
not only illegal, but irrational and ineffec-
tual ; and if the supply of workmen in any
particular
Cli. vii. Of Poor-Laws, continued. 371
particular branch of trade be sucli as would
naturally lower wages, the keeping them up
forcibly must have the effect of throwing so
many out of employment, as to make the
expense of their support fully equal to the
gain acquired b}^ the higher wages, and
thus render these higher wages in reference
to the whole body perfectly futile.
It may be distinctly stated to be an abso-
lute impossibility that all the different classes
of society should be both well paid and
fully employed, if the supply of labour on
the whole exceed the demand ; and as the
poor-laws tend in the most marked manner
to make the supply of labour exceed the
demand for it, their effect nmst be, either
to lower universally all wages, or, if some
are kept up artificially, to tlirow great num-
bers of workmen out of employment, and
thus constantly to increase the poverty and
distress of the labouring classes of society.
If these things be so (and I am firmly
convinced that they are) it cannot but be a
subject of the deepest regret to those who
ai'e anxious for the happiness of the great
mass of the community, that the writers
2 B 2 which
372 Of Poor-Lcrws, continued. Bk. iii.
which are now most extensively read among
the common people should have selected
for the subject of reprobation exactly
that line of conduct which can alone gene-
rally improve their condition, and for the
subject of approbation that system which
must inevitably depress them in poverty
and wretchedness.
They are taught that there is no occasion
whatever for them to put any sort of re-
straint upon their inclinations, or exercise
any degree of prudence in the affair of mar-
riage ; because the parish is bound to pro-
vide for all that are born. They are taught
that there is as little occasion to cultivate
habits of economy, and make use of the
means afforded them by saving banks, to
lay by their earnings while they are single,
in order to furnish a cottage when they
marr}', and enable them to set out in life
with decency and comfort; because, I sup-
pose, the parish is bound to cover their
nakedness, and to find them a bed and a
chair in a work-house.
They are taught that any endeavour on
the part of the higher classes of society to
inculcate
Ch. vii. Of Poor-Laxcs, continued 373
inculcate tlie duties of prudence and eco-
nomy can only arise from a desire to savf^
the money which they pay in poor-rates ;
although it is absolutely certain that tiie
oniu mode consistent with the laws of mora-
lity and religion of giving to the poor tiie
largest share of the property of the rich,
without sinking the whole community in
misery, is the exercise on the part of the
poor of prudence in marriage, and of eco-
nomy both before and after it.
Tliey are.taugbt that the command of the
Creator to increase and multiply is meant
to contradict tliose laws which he has him-
self appointed for the increase aud multipli-
cation of the human race; and that it is
equally tiie duty of a person to marr}^ early,
when, from the impossibility of adding to
the food of the country in which he lives,
the greater part of his offspring must die
prematurely, and consequently no multi-
phcation follow from it, as when the children
of such maniages can all be well maintain-
ed, and there is room and food for a great
and rapid increase of population.
They are taught that, in relation to the
condition
dT4 Of Poor-Laws, condmied. Bk. iii.
condition of the labouring classes, there is
no other difference between such a country
as England, which has been long well peo-
pled, and w'here the land, which is not yet
taken into cultivation, is comparatively bar-
ren, and such a country as America, where
milhons and millions of acres of nne land
are yet to be had for a trifle, except what
arises from taxation.
And they are taught, O monstrous ab-
surdity ! that the only reason why the Ame-
rican labourer earns a dollar a day, and the
English labourer earns t-wo shillings, is that
the English labourer pays a great part of
these two shillings in taxes.
Some of these doctrines are so grossly
absurd that I have no doubt they are re-
jected at once by the common sense of
many of the labouring classes. It cannot
but strike them that, if their main depend-
ence for the support of their children is to
be on the parish, they can only expect pa-
rish fare, parish clothing, parish furniture,
a parish house and parish government,
and they must know that persons living in
this way cannot possibly be in a happy
and prosperous state. It
t
V
Ch. vii. Of Poor-Lati's, continued. 375
It can scarcely escape the notice of the com-
mon mechanic, that the scarcer workmen are
upon any occasion, the greater share do they
retain of the value of what they produce for
their masters; and it is a most natural infer-
ence, that prudence in marriage, which is
the only moral means of preventing an ex-
cess of workmen above the demand, can be
the only mode of giving to the poor perma-
nently a large share of all that is produced
in the country.
A common man, who has read his Bible,
must be convinced that a command given to
a rational being by a merciful God cannot
be intended so to be interpreted as to
produce only disease and death instead of
multiplication ; and a plain sound under-
standing would make him to see that, if, in
a country in which little or no increase of
food is to be obtained, every man were to
marry at eighteen or twenty, when he ge-
nerally feels most inclined to it,' the conse-
quence must be increased poverty, increased
disease and increased mortality, and not
increased numbers, as long at least as it
continues to be true (which he will hardly
be
376 Of Poor-Laxvs, continued. Bk. iii.
be disposed to doubt) that additional ntim-
bers cannot live without additional food.
A moderately shrewd judgment would
prompt any labourer acquainted with the
nature of land to suspect that there must
be some great difference, quite independent
of taxation, between a country such as
America, which might easily be made to
support fifty times as man}^ inhabitants as
it contains at present, and a country such
as England, which could not without ex-
traordinary exertions be made to support
two or three times as many. He would at
least see that there would be a prodigious
diiference in the power of maintaining an
additional number of cattle, between a small
farm already well stocked, and a very large
one which had not the fiftieth part of what
It might be made to maintain ; and as he
would know that both rich and poor must
live upon the produce of the earth as well
as all other animals, he would be disposed
to conclude that what was so obviously-
true in one case, could not be false in the
other. These considerations might make
him think it natural and probable that in
those
Ch. vii. Of Poor- Laws, continued. 377
those countries where there was a great
want of people, the wages of labour would
be such as to encourage early nianiages
and large families, for the best of all pos-
sible reasons, because all that are born may
be very easily and comfortably supported ;
but that in those countries which were
already nearly full, the wages of labour
cannot be such as to give the same encou-
ragement to early marriages, for a reason
surely not much worse, because the persons
so brought into the world cannot be pro-
perly supported.
There are few^ of our mechanics and la-
bourers who have not heard of the high
prices of bread, meat and labour in this
country compared with the nations of the
continent, and they have generally hcjard
at the same time that these high prices
were chiefly occasioned by taxation, which,
though it had raised among other things
the money wages of labour, had done harm
rather than good to the labourer, because it
had before raised the price of the bread
and beer and other articles in which he
spent his earnings. With this amount of
information,
378 Of Poor-Laws, continued. Bk. iii.
information, the meanest understanding
would revolt at the idea that the very same
cause which had kept the money price of
labour in all the nations of Europe much
lower than in England, namely, the absence
of taxation, had been the means of raising
it to more than double in America. He
would feel quite convinced that, whatever
might be the cause of the high money
wages of labour in America, which he
might not perhaps readily understand, it
must be something very different indeed
from the mere absence of taxation, which
could only have an effect exactly opposite.
With regard to the improved condition
of the lower classes of people in France
since the revolution, which has also been
much insisted upon ; if the circumstances
accompanying it were told at the same
time, it would afford the strongest pre-
sumption against the doctrines which have
been lately promulgated. The improved
condition of the labouring classes in France
since the revolution has been accompa-
nied by a greatly diminished proportion of
births, which has had its natural and ne-
cessary
Cli. vii. Of Poor-Laws, continued. 379
cessary effect in giving to these classes a
greater share of the produce of the country,
and has kept up the advantage arising
from the sale of the church lands and other
national domains, which would otherwise
have been lost in a short time. Tiie effect
of the revolution in France has been, to
make every person depend more upon
himself and less upon others. The la-
bouring classes are therefore become more
industrious, more saving and more pru-
dent in marriage than formerly ; and it is
quite certain that without these effects the
revolution would have done notliing for
them. An improved government has, no
doubt, a natural tendency to produce these
effects, and thus to improve the condition
of the poor. But if an extensive system of
parochial relief, and such doctrines as have
lately been inculcated, counteract them,
and prevent the labouring classes from de-
pending upon their own prudence and in-
dustry, then any change for the better in
other respects becomes comparatively a
matter of very little importance; and, under
the befit form of government imaginable,
there
^>
580 Of Poor-Laws, continued. Bk. iii.
there may be thousands on thousands out
of employment and half starved.
If it be taught that all who are born
have a right to support on the land, what-
ever be their number, and that there is no
occasion to exercise any prudence in the
affair of marriage so as to check this num-
ber, the temptations, according to all the
known principles of human nature, will in-
evitably be yielded to, and more and more
will gradually become dependent on parish
assistance. There cannot therefore be a
greater inconsistency and contradiction than
that those who maintain these doctrines re-
specting the poor, should still complain of
the number of paupers. Such doctrines
and a crowd of paupers are unavoidably
united ; and it is utterly beyond the powei'
of any revolution or change of government
to separate them.
CHAP.
( 381 )
CHAP. VIII.
Of the Agricultural System.
As it is the nature of agriculture to pro-
duce subsistence for a greater number of
families than can be employed in the bu-
siness of cultivation, it might perhaps be
supposed that a nation which strictly pur-
sued an agricultural system would always
have more food than was necessary for its
inhabitants, and that its population could
never be checked from the want of the
means of subsistence.
It is indeed obviously true that the in-
crease of such a country is not immediately
checked, either by the want of power to
produce, or even by the deficiency of the
actual produce of the soil compared with
the population. Yet if we examine the
condition of its labouring classes, we shall
find that the real wages of their labour are
such as essentially to check and regulate
their
382 Of the Agricultural System. Bk. iii.
their increase, by checking and regu-
lating their command over the means of
subsistence.
A country under certain cu'cumstances
of soil and situation, and with a deficient
capital, may find it advantageous to pur-
chase foreign commodities with its raw
produce rather than manufacture them at
home : and in this case it will necessarily
grow more raw produce than it consumes.
But this state of things is very little con-
nected either with the permanent condition
of the lower classes of the society or the rate
of their increase ; and in a country where
the agricultural system entirely predo-
minates, and the great mass of its industry
is directed towards the land, the condition
of the people is subject to almost every
degree of variation.
Under the agricultural system perhaps
are to be found the two extremes in the
condition of the poor ; instances where they
are in the best state, and instances where
they are in the worst state of any of which
we have accounts.
In a country w^here there is an abun-
dance
I
Ch.viii. Of the Agricultural System. 383
dance of good land, where there are no
difficulties in the way of its purchase a,nd
distribution, and where there is an easy
foreign vent for raw produce* hoth-Jthe
profits of stock and the wages of labour
will be high. These high profits and high
wages, if habits of economy pretty gene-
rally prevail, will furnish the means of a
rapid accumulation of capital and a great
and continued demand for labour, while the
rapid increase of population which will ensue
will maintain undiminished the demand for
produce, and check the fall of profits^ If
the extent of territory be considerable, and
the population comparatively inconsider-
able, the land may remain understocked
both with capital and people for some
length of time, notwithstanding a rapid
increase of both ; and it is under these cir-
cumstances of the agricultural system that
labour is able to command the greatest
portion of the necessaries of life, and that
the condition of the labouring classes of
society is the best.
The only drawback to the wealth of the
labouring classes under these circumstances
is
384 Of the Agricultural System. Bk.iii.
is the relatively low value of the raw
produce.
If a considerable part of the manufac-
tured commodities used in such a country
be purchased by the export of its raw pro-
duce, it follows as a necessary consequence
that the relative value of its raw produce
will be lower, and of its manufactured
produce higher, than in the countries with
which such a trade is carried on. But
where a given portion of raw produce will
not command so much of manufactured
and foreign commodities as in other coun-
tries, the condition of the labourer cannot
be exactly measured by the quantity of
raw produce which falls to his share. If,
for instance, in one country the yearly
earnings of a labourer amount in money
value to fifteen quarters of wheat, and in
another to nine, it would be incorrect to in-
fer that their relative condition, and the
comforts which they enjoy, were in the same
proportion, because the whole of a la-
bourer's earnings are not spent in food;
and if that part which is not so spent will,
in the country where the value of fifteen
quarters
Ch . vi i i . Of Ihc Ap^iciillural System . 385
quarters is earned, not go near so far in
the purchase of cIoth.es and other conve-
niences as in the countries where the value
of nine quarters is earned, it is clear that
altogether the situation of the labourer in the
latter country nia}^ approach nearer to that
of the labourer in the former than might at
fust be supposed.
At the same time it should be recollected
that quantity always tends powerfully to
counterbalance any deficiency of value;
and the labourer who earns the greatest
number of quarters may still command the
greatest quantity of necessaries and con-
veniences combined, though not to the ex-
tent implied by the proportions of the raw
produce.
><; America affords a practical instance of
the agricultural system in a state the most
favourable to the condition of the labouring
classes. The nature of the country has
been such as to make it answer to employ
a very large proportion of its capital in
agriculture ; and the consequence has been
a very rapid increase of stock. This rapid
increase of stock has kept up a steady and
VOL. II. 2 c continued
586 Of the Agricultural Systan. Bk. iii
continued demand for labour. The la-
bouring classes have in consequence been
peculiarly well paid. They have been able
to command an unusual quantity of the
necessaries of life, and the progress of po-
pulation has been unusually rapid.
Yet even here, some little drawback has
been felt from the relative cheapness of
corn. As America till the late war imported
the greatest part of its manufactures from
England, and as England imported flour
and wheat from America, the value of food
in America compared with manufactures
must have been decidedly less than in
England. Nor would this effect take place
merely with relation to the foreign com-
modities imported into America, but also
to those of its home manufactures, in which
it has no particular advantage. In agri-
culture, the abundance of good land
would counterbalance the high wages of
labour and high profits of stock, and keep
the price of corn moderate, notwith-
standing the great expense of these two
elements of price. But in the production
of manufactured commodities they must
necessarily
Ch. viii. 0/ the Agricultural Si/stem. 387
necessarily tell, without any particular ad-
vantage to counterbalance them, and must
in general occasion in home goods, as well
as foreign, a high price compared with food.
Under these circumstances, the condition
of the labouring classes of society cannot
in point of conveniences and comforts be
so much better than that of the labourers
of other countries as the relative quantity of
food which they earn might seem to in-
dicate ; and this conclusion is sufficiently
confirmed by experience. In some very
intelligent Travels through a great part of
England, written in 1810 and 1811 by
Mr. Simond, a French gentleman, who had
resided above twenty years in America,
the author seems to have been evidently
much struck with the air of convenience
and comfort in the houses of our peasantry,
and the neatness and cleanliness of their
dress. In some parts of his tour he saw so
many neat cottages, so much good clothing,
and so little appearance of poverty and
distress, that he could not help wondering
where the poor of England and their dwell-
ings were concealed. These observations
2 c 2 coming
388 Of tht Agricultural System. Bk.iii.
coming from an able, accurate and ap-
parently most impartial observer, just
landed from America and visiting End and
for the first time, are curious and in-
structive ; and the facts which they notice,
though they may arise in part from the
different habits and modes of life prevailing
in the two countries, must be occasioned in
a considerable degree by the causes above
mentioned.
A very striking instance of the disad-
vantageous effect of a low relative price of
food on the condition of the poor may be
observed in Ireland. In Ireland the funds
for the maintenance oflabour have increased
so rapidly during the last century, and so
large a portion of that sort of food which
forms the principal support of the lower
classes of society has been awarded to them,
that the increase of population has been
more rapid than in almost any known coun-
try, except America. The Irish labourer
paid in potatoes has earned perhaps the
means of subsistence for double the num-
ber of persons that could be supported by
the earnings of an English labourer paid in
wheat ;
Ch. viii. Of the Agricultural Sysion. 389
wheat ; and the increase of population in
the two countries during the last century
has been nearly in proportion to the re-
lative quantity of the customary food
awarded to the labourers in each. But
their general condition with respect to con-
veniences and comforts are very far indeed
from being in a similar proportion. The
great quantity of food which land will bear
when planted with potatoes, and the con-
sequent cheapness of the labour supported
by them, tends rather to raise than to
lower the rents of land, and as far as rent
goes, to keep up the price of the materials
of manufactures and all other sorts of raw
produce, except potatoes. Jn the raw ma-
terials of home manufactures, therefore, a
great relative disadvantage will be suf-
fered, and a still greater both in the raw
and manufactured produce of foreign coun-
tries. The exchangeable value of the food
which the Irish labourer earns above what
he and his family consume will go but a
very Uttle way in the purchase of clothing,
lodging and other conveniences ; and the
consequence is that his condition in theseJ
respects
390 Of the Agricultural System, Bk. iii.
respects is extremely miserable, at the
same time that his means of subsistence,
such as they are, may be comparatively
abundant.
In Ireland the money price of labour is
not much more than the half of what it is
in England. The quantity of food earned
by no means makes up for its deficient va-
lue. A certain portion therefore of the
Irish labourer's wages (a fourth or a fifth for
instance) will go but a very little way in
the purchase of manufactures and foreign
produce. In America, on the other hand,
even the money wages of labour are nearly
double those of England. Though the
American labourer therefore cannot pur-
chase manufactures and foreign produce
with the food that he earns so cheap as the
English labourer, yet the greater quantity
of this food makes up for its deficiency of
relative value. His condition compared
with the labouring classes of England,
though it may not be so much superior as
their relative means of subsistence might
indicate, must still on the whole have de-
cidedly the advantage ; and altogether, per-
haps.
Ch. viii. Of the Agricultural System. 391
haps, America may be produced as an
instance of the agricultural system in which
the condition of the labouring classes is
the best of any that we know.
The instances where, underthe agricultu-
ral system, the condition ofthe lower classes
of society is very wretched, are more fre-
quent. When the accumulation of capital
stops, whatever may be the cause, the
population, before it conies to a stand, will
always be pressed on as near to the limits
ofthe actual means of subsistence, as the
habits ofthe lower classes of the society will
allow ; that is, the real wages of labour will
sink, till they are only just sufficient to
maintain a stationary population. Should
this happen, as it frequently does, while
land is still in abundance and capital
scarce, the profits of stock will naturally
be high ; but corn will be very cheap, ow-
ing to the goodness and plenty ofthe land,
and the stationary demand for it, notwith-
standing the high profits of stock; while
these high profits, togetlier with the usual
want of skill and proper division of labour,
which attend a scanty capital, will render
all
Of the Agricultural System. Bk. iii.
all domestic manufactured commodities
comparatively very dear. This state of
things will naturally be unfavourable to the
generation of those habits of prudential re-
straint which most frequently arise from the
custom of enjoying conveniences and com-
forts, and it is to be expected that the popu-
lation will not stop till the wages of labour,
estimated even in food, are very low. But
in a country where the wages of labour es-
timated in food are low, and that food is
relatively of a very low value, both with
regard to domestic and foreign manufac-
tures, the condition of the labouring classes
of society must be the worst possible.
Poland, and some parts of Russia, Sibe-
ria and European Turkey, afford instances
of this kind. In Poland the population
seems to be almost stationary or very slowly
p.rogressive ; and as both the population
and produce are scanty, compared with the
extent of territory, we may infer with cer-
tainty that its capital is scanty, and yet
slowly progressive. It follows, therefore,
that the demand for labour increases very
slowly, and that the real wages of labour, or
the
Ch. viii. Of the Agricultural Sij stem. 393
the command of the labouring classes over
the necessaries and conveniences otlife, are
such as to keep the population down to the
level of the slowly increasing quantity that
is awarded to them. And as from the state
of the country the peasantry cannot have
been much accustomed to conveniences and
comforts, the checks to i(s population are
more likely to be of the positive than of the
preventive kind.
Yet here corn is in abundance, and great
quantities of it are yearly exported. But
it appears clearly that it is not either the
power of tlie country to produce food, or
even what it actually produces, that limits
and regulates the progress of population,
but the quantity which in the actual state
of things is awarded to the labourer, and
the rate at which the funds so appropriated
increase.
In the present case the demand for la-
bour is very small ; and tliough the popula-
tion is inconsidcral)le, it is greater than the
scanty capital of the country can fully
employ ; the condition of the labourer
tlierefore is depressed by his being able to
command
394 Of the Agricultural System, Bk. iii.
command only such a quantity of food as
will maintain a stationary or very slowly
increasing population. It is further de-
pressed by the low relative value of the food
that he earns, which gives to any surplus he
may possess a ver}^ small power in the pur-
chase of manufactured commodities or fo-
reign produce.
Under these circumstances, we cannot be
surprised that all accounts of Poland should
represent the condition of the lower classes
of society as extremel}^ miserable ; and the
other parts of Europe, which resemble Po-
land in the state of their land and capital,
resemble it in the condition of their people.
In justice however to the agricultural
system, it should be observed that the pre-
mature check to the capital and the de-
mand for labour, which occurs in some of
the countries of Europe, while land conti-
nues in considerable plent}', is not occa-
sioned by the particular direction of their
industr}^, but by the vices of the govern-
ment and the structure of the societj^,
which prevent its full and fair development
in that direction.
Poland
Ch. viii. Of the Agrkultimtl System. 395
Poland is continually brought ibrward as
an exani|)le of the miserable eftbcts of the
agricultural system. But notliing surely can
be less fair. The misery of Poland does not
arise from its directing its industry chiefly
to agriculture, but from the little encou-
ragement given to industry of any kind,
owing to the state of property and the servile
condition of the people. While the land is
cultivated by boors, the produce of whose
exertions belongs entirely to their masters,
and the whole society consists mainly of these
degraded beings and the lords and owners of
great tracts of territory, there will evidently
be no class of persons possessed of the means
either of furnishing an adequate demand at
home for the surplus produce of the soil, or
ofaccumulating fresh capital and increasing
the demand for labour. In this miserable state
of things, the best remedy would unquestion-
ably be the introduction of manufactures
and commerce; because the introduction of
manufactures and commerce could alone li-
berate themassof the people from slavery and
give the necessary stimulus to industry and
accumulation. But were the people already
free and industrious, and landed projierty
easily
396 Of the Agricultural System. Bk. iii.
easily divisible and alienable, it might still
answer to such a country as Poland to pur-
chase its finer manufactures from foreign
countries by means of its raw products, and
thus to continue essentially agricultural, for
many years. Under these new circum-
stances however, it would present a totally
different picture from that which it exhibits
at present; and the condition of the people
would more resemble that of the inhabitants
of the United States of America than of
the inhabitants of the unimproved countries
of Europe. Indeed America is perhaps the
only modern instance of the fair operation
of the agricultural system. In every coun-
try of Europe, and in most of its colonies
in other parts of the world, formidable ob-
stacles still exist to the employment of capital
upon the land, arising from the remains of the
feudal system. But these obstacles which
have essentially impeded cultivation have
been very far indeed from proportionably en-
couraging other branches of in dustr}^ Com-
merce and manufactm'es are necessary to
agriculture ; but agriculture is still more ne-
cessary to commerce and 'manufactures. It
must
CIj. viii. Of the Agricullural System. 397
must ever be true that the surplus produce
of the cultivators, taken in its most enlarged
sense, measures and limits the growth of
that part of the society which is not em-
ployed upon the land. Throughout the
whole world the number of manufacturers,
of merchants, of proprietors and of per-
sons engaged in tlie various civil and mili-
tary professions, must be exactly propor-
tioned to this surplus produce, and cannot
in the nature of things increase beyond it.
If the earth had been so niggardly of her
produce as to oblige all her inhabitants to
labour for it, no manufacturers or idle per-
sons could ever have existed. But her first
intercoiu'se wdth man was a voluntary pre-
sent, not very large indeed, but sufficient as
a fund for his subsistence till he could pro-
cure a greater. And the power to procure
a greater was given to him in that quality of
the earth by which it may be made to yield
a nmch larger quantity of food, and of the
materials of clothing and lodging, than is
necessary to feed, clothe and lodge the
persons employed in the cultivation of the
soil. This quality is the foundation of that
surplus
398 OJ the Agricultural System. Bk. iil.
surplus produce Avhich peculiarly distin-
guishes the industry employed upon the
land. In proportion as the labour and in-
genuity of man exercised upon the land
have increased this surplus produce, leisure
has been gi^xn to a greater number of per-
sons to employ themselves in all the inven-
tions which embellish civilized life; while
the desire to profit by these inventions has
continued to stimulate the cultivators to in-
crease their surplus produce. This desire
indeed may be considered as almost abso-
lutely necessary to give it its proper value,
and to encourage its further extension ; but
still the order of precedence is, strictly
speaking, the surplus produce ; because the
funds for the subsistence of the manufacturer
must be advanced to him before he can
complete his work ; and no step can be
taken in any other sort of industry unless
the cultivators obtain from the soil more
than the}^ themselves consume.
If in asserting the peculiar productive-
ness of the labour employed upon the land,
Avelookonly to the clear monied rentyielded
to a certain number of proprietors, we \m-
doubtedly
Ch. viii. Of the Agricultural System. 399
doubtedly consider the subject in a very con-
tracted point of view. In the advanced
stages of society, this rent forms indeed the
most prominent portion of the surphis pro-
duce here meant ; but it may exist equally
in the shape of high wages and profits
during the earlier periods of cultivation,
when there is little or no rent. The la-
bourer who earns a value equal to fifteen
quarters of corn in the year may have only
a family of three or four children, and not
consume in kind above five or six quarters ;
and the owner of the farming stock, which
yields high profits, may consume but a very
moderate proportion of them in food and
raw materials. All the rest, whether in the
shape of wages and profits, or of rents,
may be considered as a surplus produce
from the soil, which affords the means of
subsistence and the materials of clothing
and lodging to a certain number of people
according to its extent, some of whom
may live without manual exertions, and
others employ themselves in modifying the
raw materials obtained from the earth into
the
400 Of the Agricultural System, Bk. iii.
the forms best suited to the gratification
of man.
It will depend of course entirely upon
its answering to a country to exchange a
part of the surplus produce for foreign
conjmodities, instead of consuming it at
home, whether it is to be considered as
mainly agricultural or otherwise. And
such an exchange of raw produce for ma-
nufactures, or peculiar foreign products,
may for a period of some extent suit a
state, which might resemble Poland iii
scarcely any other feature but that of ex-
porting corn.
It appears then, that countries in which
the industry of the inhabitants is princi-
pally directed towards the land, and in
which corn continues to be exported, may
enjoy great abundance or experience
great want, according to the particular cir-
cumstances in which they are placed. They
will in general not be much exposed to the
temporary evils of scarcity arising from the
variations of the seasons ; but the quantity
of food permanendy awarded to the la-
bourer
I
Ch. viii. Of the Agticultural System. 401
bourer may be such as not to allow of an
increase of population ; and their state, in
respect to their being progressive, station-
ary or declining, will depend upon other
causes than that of directing their attention
principally to agriculture.
VOL. II. 2 D CHAP.
402 )
CHAP. IX.
Of the Commercial System.
A COUNTRY which excels in commerce
and manufactures, may purchase com from
a great variety of others; and it may be sup-
posed, perhaps, that, proceeding upon this
system, it may continue to purchase an in-
creasing quantity, and to maintain a rapidly
increasing population, till the lands of all the
nations with which it trades are fully cul-
tivated. As this is an event necessarily at
a great distance, it may appear that the
population of such a country will not be
checked from the difficulty of procuring
subsistence till after the lapse of a great
number of ages.
There are, however, causes constantly in
operation, which will occasion the pressure
of this difficulty, long before the event here
contemplated has taken place, and while
the means of raising food in the surrounding
countries
Ch. ix. Of the Commercial System. 403
countries may still be comparatively abun-
dant.
In the first place, advantages which de-
pend exclusively upon capital and skill,
and the present possession of particular
channels of connnerce, cannot in their na-
ture be permanent. We know how diffi-
cult it is to confine improvements in ma-
chinery to a single 5pot ; ive know that it
is the constant object, both of individuals
and countries, to increase their capital ;
and we know, from the past history of com-
mercial states, that the cliannels of trade
are not unfrequently taking a different di-
rection. It is unreasonable therefore to
expect that any one country, merely by the
force of skill and capital, should remain in
possession of markets uninterrupted by
foreign competition. But, when a power-
ful foreign competition takes place, the
exportable commodities of the country in
question must soon fall to prices which
will essentially reduce profits ; and the fall
of profits will diminish both the power and
the will to save. Under these circum-
stances the accumulation of capital will be
2 D 2 slow
404 Of the Commercial System. Bk. iii .
slow, and the demand for labour propor-
tionably slow, till it comes nearly to a
stand ; while, perhaps, the new competitors,
either by raising their own raw materials
or by some other advantages, may still be
increasing their capitals and population
with some degree of rapidity.
But, secondly, even if it were possible
for a considerable time to exclude any
formidable foreign competition, it is
found that domestic competition produces
almost unavoidably the same effects. If a
machine be invented m a particular coun-
try, by the aid of which one man can do
the work of ten, the possessors of it will of
course at first make very unusual profits ;
but, as soon as the invention is generally
known, so much capital and industry will
be brought into this new and profitable
emploj^ment, as to make its products greatly
exceed both the foreign and domestic de-
mand at the old prices. These prices,
therefore, will continue to fall, till the stock
and labour employed in this direction
cease to yield unusual profits. In this case
it is evident that ; though in an early period
of
Ch. ix. Of the Commercial System. 405
of such a manufacture, the product of the
industry of one man for a day miglit have
been exchanged for such a portion of food as
would support forty or fifty persons ; yet,
at a subsequent period, the product of the
same industry might not purchase the sup-
port of ten.
In the cotton trade of this country, which
has extended itself so wonderfully during
the last twenty-five years, very little effect
has hitherto been produced by foreign com-
petition*. The very great fall which has
taken place in the prices of cotton goods
has been almost exclusively owing to do-
mestic competition; and this competition
has so glutted both the home and foreign
markets, that the present capitals employed
in the trade, notwithstanding the very pecu-
liar advantages which they possess from
the saving of labour, have ceased to possess
any advantage whatever in the general rate
of their profits. Although, by means ot
the admirable machinery used in the spin-
ning of cotton, one boy or girl can now do
as much as many grown persons could do
• 1816.
formerly
406 Of the Commercial System. Bk. iii.
formerly ; yet neither the wages of the la-
bourer, nor the profits of his master, are
higher than in those employments where no
machinery is used, and no saving of labour
accomplished.
The country has, however, in the mean
time, been very greatly benefitted . Not on ly
have all its inhabitants been enabled to ob-
tain a superior fabric for clothing, at a less
expense of labour and property, which
must be considered as a great and perma-
nent advantage ; but the high temporary
profits of the trade have occasioned a great
accumulation of capital, and consequently
a great demand for labour ; while the ex-
tending markets abroad and the new values
thrown into the market at home, have
created such a demand for the products of
every species of industry, agricultural and
colonial, as well as commercial and manu-
facturing, as to prevent a fall of profits.
This country, from the extent of its lands,
and its rich colonial possessions, has a large
artna for the employment of an increasing
capital; and the general rate of its profits are
noi as it appears, very easily and rapidly
reduced
Ch. ix. Of the Commercial System. AXff
reduced by accumulation. But a country,
such as we are considering, engaged prin-
cipally in manufactures, and unable to
direct its industry to the same variety of
pursuits, Avould sooner find its rate of pro-
fits diminished by an increase of capital,
and no ingenuity in machinery could save
it, after a certain period, from low profits
and low wages, and their natural conse-
quences, a check to population.
Thirdly, a country which is obliged to
purchase both the raw materials of its ma-
nufactures and the means of subsistence for
its population from foreign countries, is
almost entirely dependent for the increase
of its wealth and population on the in-
creasing wealth and demands of the coun-
tries with which it trades.
It has been sometimes said — that a ma-
nufacturing country is no more dependent
upon the country which supplies it with
food and raw materials, than the agricul-
tural country is on that which manufactures
for it ; but this is really an abuse of terms.
A country with great resources in land may
find it decidedly for its advantage to em-
ploy
408 Of the Commercial System. Bk. iii.
ploy the main part of its capital in cultiva-
tion and to import its manufactures. In
so doing, it will often employ the whole of
its industry most productively, and most ra-
pidly increase its stock. But, if the slackness
of its neighbours in manufacturing, or
any other cause, should either considerably
check or altogether prevent the importation
of manufactures, a country with food and
raw materials provided at home cannot be
long at a loss. For a time it would not cer-
tainly be so well supplied ; but manufac-
turers and artisans would soon be found,
and would soon acquire tolerable skill*;
and though the capital and population of
the country might not, under the new cir-
cumstances in which it was placed, increase
so rapidly as before, it would still have the
power of increasing in both to a great and
almost undefinable extent.
On the other hand, if food and raw ma-
terials were denied to a nation merely manu-
facturing, it is obvious that it could not
longer exist. But not only does the ab-
Tiiis has been fully exemplified in America (1816).
solute
Ch. ix. Of the Commercial System. 409
solute existence of such a nation, on an ex-
treme supposition, depend upon its foreign
commerce, but its progress in wealth must
beahiiost entirely measured by the progress
and demand of the countries which deal
with it. However skilful, industrious and
sa> ing such a nation might be, if its cus-
tomers, from indolence and want of accu-
mulation, would not or could not take off a
yearly increasing value of its commodities,
the effects of its skill and machinery would
be but of very short duration.
That the cheapness of manufactured
commodities, occasioned by skill and ma-
chinery in one country, is calculated to
encourage an increase of raw produce in
others, no person can doubt ; but we know
at the same time that high profits may con-
tinue for {I considerable period in an indo-
lent and ill-governed state, without pro-
ducing an increase of wealth ; yet, unless
such an incrt^ase of wealth and demand
were produced in the surrounding countries,
the increasing ingenuity and exertions of
the manufacturing and commercial state
would be lost in continually falling prices.
It
•410 Of the Commercial System. Bk. iii.
It would not only be obliged, as its skill
and capital increased, to give a larger quan-
tity of manufactured produce for the raw
produce which it received in return ; but
it might be unable, even with the tempta-
tion of reduced prices, to stimulate its
customers to such purchases as would allow
of an increasing importation of food and
raw materials; and without such an in-
creasing importation, it is quite obvious
that the population must become stationary.
It would come to the same thing, whether
this inability to obtain an increasing quan-
tity of food were occasioned by the ad-
vancing money price of corn or the falling
money price of manufactures. In either
case the effect would be the same ; and it
is certain that this effect might take place
in either way, from increasing competition
and accumulation in the manufacturing
nation, and the want of them in the agri-
cultural, long before any essential increase
of difficulty had occurred in the production
of corn.
Fourthly. A nation which is obliged to
purchase from others nearly the whole of
its
Ch. ix. Of the Commercial System. 411
its raw materials, and the means of its sub-
sistence, is not only dependent entirely
upon the demands of its customers, as they
may be variously affected by indolence,
industry or caprice, but it is subjected to
a necessary and unavoidable diminution of
demand in the natural progress of these
countries towards that proportion of skill
and capital which they may reasonably be
expected after a certain time to possess.
It is generally an accidental and temporary,
not a natural and permanent, division of
labour, which constitutes one state the
manufacturer and the carrier of others.
While, in these landed nations, agricultural
profits continue very high, it may fully
answer to them to pay others as their ma-
nufacturers and carriers ; but when the
profits on land fall, or the tenures on which
it can be held are not such as to encourage
the investment of an accumulating capital,
the owner of this capital will naturally look
towards commerce and manufactures for
its employment ; and, according to the
just reasoning of Adam Smith and the Eco-
nomists, finding at home botli the materials
of
412 Of the Commercial System. Bk. iii.
of manufactures, the means of subsistence,
and the power of carrying on their own trade
with foreign countries, they will probably be
able to conduct the business of manufactur-
ing and carrying for themselves at a cheaper
rate than if they allowed it to continue in-
the hands of others. As long as the agri-
cultural nations continued to apply their in-
creasing capital principally to the land, this
increase of capital would be of the greatest
possible advantage to the manufacturing
and commercial nation. It would be in-
deed the main cause and great regulator of
its progress in wealth and population. But
after they had turned their attention to
manufactures and commerce, their further
increase of capital would be the signal of
decay and destruction to the manufactures
and commerce which they had before sup-
ported. And thus, in the natural progress
of national improvement, and without the
competition of superior skill and capital, a
purely commercial state must be undersold
and driven out of the markets by those who
possess the advantage of land.
In the distribution of wealth during tke
progress
Ch. ix. Of the Commercial System. 413
progress of improvement, the interests of
an independent state are essentially dif-
ferent from those of a province, a point
which has not been sufficiently attended to.
If agricultural capital increases and agri-
cultural profits diminish in Sussex, the over-
flowing stock will go to London, Man-
chester, Liverpool, or some other place
where it can probably be engaged in manu-
factures or commerce more advantageously
than at home. But if Sussex were an in-
dependent kingdom, this could not take
place; and the corn which is now sent to
London must be withdrawn to support
manufacturers and traders living within its
confines. If England therefore had con-
tinued to be separated into the seven king-
doms of the Heptarchy, London could not
possibly have been what it is ; and that
distribution of wealth and population which
takes place at present, and which we may
fairly presume is the most beneficial to the
whole of the realm, would have been essen-
tially changed, if the object had been to
accumulate the greatest quantity of wealth
and population in particular districts in-
stead
414 Of the Commercial System. Bk. iii.
stead of the whole island. But at all times
the interest of each independent state is to
accumulate the greatest quantity of wealth
within its limits. Consequently, the interest
of an independent state, with regard to the
countries with which it trades, can rarely
be the same as the interest of a province
with regard to the empire to which it
belongs ; and the accumulation of capital
which would occasion the withdrawing of
the exports of corn in the one case, would
leave them perfectly undisturbed in the
other.
If, from the operation of one or more of
the causes above enumerated, the importa-
tion of corn into a manufacturing and
commercial country should be essentially
checked, and should either actually de-
crease, or be prevented from increasing, it
is quite evident that its population must be
checked nearly in the same proportion.
Venice presents a striking instance of a
commercial state, at once stopped in its
progress to wealth and population by fo-
reign competition. The discoveiy made
by the Portuguese of a passage to India by
the
Ch. ix. Of the Commercial System. 415
the Cape of Good Hope completely turned
the channel of the Indian trade. The high
profits of the Venetians, which had been
the foundation of their rapidly increasing
wealth and of their extraordinary prepon-
derance as a naval and connnercial power,
were not only suddenly reduced; but the
trade itself, on which these high profits had
been made, was almost annihilated, and
their power and wealth were shortly con-
tracted to those more confined limits which
suited their natural resources.
In the middle of the 15th century,
Bruges in Flanders was the great entrepot
of the trade between the north and the south
of Europe. Early in the l6th century its
commerce began to decline under the com-
petition of Antwerp. Many English and
foreign merchants in consequence left the
declining city, to settle in that which was
rapidly mcreasiing in commerce and wealth.
About the middle of the l6th century Ant-
werp was at the zenith of its power. It
contained above a hundred thousand inha-
bitants, and was universally allowed to be
the most illustrious mercantile city, and to
carry
416 Of the Commercial System. Bk. iii.
carry on the most extensive and richest
commerce, of any in the north of Europe.
The rising greatness of Amsterdam was
favoured by the unfortunate siege and cap-
ture of Antwerp by the duke of Parma;
and the competition of the extraordinary
industry and persevering exertions of the
Hollanders not onlj prevented Antwerp
from recovering her commerce, but gave a
severe blow to the foreign trade of almost
all the odier Hanse Towns.
The subsequent decline of the trade of
Amsterdam itself was caused partly by the
low profits arising from home competition
and abundance of capital; partly by ex-
cessive taxation, which raised the price of
the necessaries of life ; but more than either
perhaps, by the progress of other nations
possessing greater natural advantages, and
being able, even with inferior skill, industry
and capital, beneficially to carry on much
of that trade which had before fallen almost
exclusively into the hands of the Dutch.
As early as I669 and I67O, when Sir Wil-
liam Temple was in Holland, the effects of
abundance of capital and domestic com-
petition
\
Ch. ix. Of the Commercial System. 417
petition were such, that most of the ibreigH
trades were losing ones, except the Indian,
and that none of them gave a profit of more
than two or three per cent^ In such a
state of things both the power and the will
to save must be greatly diminished. The
accumulation of capital must have been
either stationary or declining, or at the best
very slowly progressive. In fact, Sir Wil-
liam Temple gives it as his opinion that
the trade of Holland had for some years
passed its meridian, and begun sensibly to
decay ^. Subsequently, when the progress
of other nations was still more marked, it
appeared from undoubted documents that
most of the trades of Holland, as well as
its fisheries, had decidedly fallen off, and
that no branch of its commerce had re-
tained its former vigour, except the Ame-
rican and African trades, and that of the
Rhine and Maese, which are independent
of foreign power and competition.
In 1669, the whole population of Hol-
land and West Friezeland was estimated by
John de Witt at 2,400,000 ^ In 1778, the
» Temple's Works, vul.i. p. (if), fol. ^ Id. p. 67.
•^ Interest of Holland, vol. i. p. 9.
VOL. II. 2 E population
4l8 Of the Commercial System. Bk. iii.
j>opulation of the seven provinces was esti-
mated only at 2,000,000 * ; and thus, in the
course of above a hundred years, the po-
pulation, instead of increasing, as is usual,
had greatly diminished.
In all these cases of commercial states
the progress of wealth and population
seems to have been checked by one or
more of the causes above mentioned, which
must necessarily affect more or less the
power of commanding the means of sub-
sistence.
Universally it may be observed, that if,
from any cause or causes whatever, the
funds for the maintenance of labour in any
country cease to be progressive, the effective
demand for labour will also cease to be
progressive ; and wages will be reduced to
that sum, which, under the existing prices
of provisions, and the existing habits of the
people, will just keep up, and no more than
keep up, a stationary population. A state so
circumstanced is under a moral impossibility
of increasing, whatever may be the plenty
of corn, or however high may be the profits
» Richesse de la Hollande, vol. ii. p. 349-
of
Ch. ix. Of the Commercial System. 419
of stock ill other countries *. It may in-
deed at a subsequent period, and under
new circumstances, begin to increase again.
If by some happy invention in mechanics,
the discovery of some new channel of trade,
or an unusual increase of agricultural
wealth and population in the surrounding
countries, its exports, of whatever kind,
were to become unusually in demand,
it might again import an increasing quan-
tity of corn, and might again increase
its population. But as long as it is unable
to make yearly additions to its imports of
food, it will evidently be unable to furnish
the means of support to an increasing
population ; and it will necessarily expe-
rience this inability, when, from the state
of its commercial transactions, the funds
for the maintenance of its labour become
stationary, or begin to decline.
• It is a curious fact, that among the causes of the de-
cline of the Dutch trade, Sir William Temple reckons
the cheapness of corn, which, he says, " has been for these
dozen years, or more, general in these parts of Europe."
(vol. i. p. 690 This cheapness, he says, impeded the vent
of spices and other Indian commodities among the Baltic
nations, bv diminishing their power of purchasing.
2 E 2 CHAP.
( 420 )
CHAP. X.
Of Systems of Agriculture and Commerce combined.
In a country the most exclusively confined
to agriculture, some of its raw materials will
always be worked up for domestic use.
In the most commercial state, not abso-
lutely confined to the walls of a town, some
part of the food of its inhabitants, or of its
cattle, will be drawn from the small terri-
tory in its neighbourhood. But, in speaking
of systems of agriculture and commerce
combined, something much further than
this kind of combination is intended ; and
it is meant to refer to countries, where the
resources in land, and the capitals em-
ployed in commerce and manufactures, are
both considerable, and neither prepon-
derating greatly ov er the other.
A country so circumstanced possesses
the advantages of both systems, while at
the same time it is free from the peculiar
evils
Ch. X. Of Systems of Agricidliire, S;c. 421
evils which belong to eacli, taken sepa-
rately.
The prosperity of manufactures and com-
merce in any state implies at once that it
has freed itself from the worst parts of the
feudal system. It shews that the great
body of the people are not in a stale of
servitude ; that they have both the power
and the will to save ; that when capital
accumulates it can find the means of se-
cure employment, and consequently that
the government is such as to afford the
necessary protection to property. Under
these circumstances, it is scarcely possible
that it should ever experience that prema-
ture stagnation in the demand for labour,
and the produce of the soil, which at times
has marked the history of most of the na-
tions of Europe. In a country in which
manufactures and commerce flourish, the
produce of the soil will always find a ready
market at home; and such a market is
peculiarly favourable to the progressive
increase of capital. But the progressive
increase of capital, and of the funds for the
maintenance of labour, is the great cause
of
422 Of Systems of Agriculture Bk.iiL
of a demand for labour, and of high corn
wages, while the high relative price of corn,
occasioned by the improved machinery and
extended capital employed in manufac-
tures, together with the prosperity of foreign
commerce, enables the labourer to ex-
change any given portion of his earnings
in corn for a large proportion both of
domestic and foreign conveniences and
luxuries. Even when the effective demand
for labour begins to slacken, and the corn
wages to be reduced, still the high relative
value of corn keeps up comparatively the
condition of the labouring classes; and
though their increase is checked, yet a
very considerable body of them may still
be well lodged and well cloathed, and able
to indulge themselves in the conveniences
and luxuries of foreign produce. Nor can
they ever be reduced to the miserable con-
dition of the poor in those countries, where,
at the same time that the demand for labour is
stationary, the value of corn, compared
with manufactures and foreign commodities,
is extremely low.
All the peculiar disadvantages therefore
of
Ch. X. and Commerce combined. 423
of a purely agricultural country are avoided
by the growth and prosperity of manufac-
tures and commerce.
In the same manner it will be found that
the peculiar disadvantages attending states
merely manufacturing and commercial will
be avoided by the possession of resources in
land.
A country which raises its own food can-
not by any sort of foreign competition be
reduced at once to a necessarily declining
population. If the exports of a merely
commercial country be essentially dimi-
nished by foreign competition, it may lose,
in a very short time, its power of supporting
the same number of people ; but if the ex-
ports of a country which has resources in
land be diminished, it will merely lose some
of its foreign conveniences and luxuries;
and the great and most important of all
trades, the domestic trade carried on between
the towns and the country, will remain com-
paratively undisturbed. It may indeed be
checked in the rate of its progress for a
time by the want of the same stimulus; but
there is no reason for its becoming retro-
gi'ade ;
4^4 Of Systems of Agriculture Bk. iii.
grade ; and there is no doubt that the capital
thrown out of employment by the loss of
foreign trade will not lie idle. It will find
some channel in which it can be employed
with advantage, though not with the same
advantage as before ; and will be able to
maintain an increasing population, though
not increasing at the same rate as under the
stimulus of a prosperous foreign trade.
The effects of home competition will in
like manner be very different in the two
states we are comparing.
In a state merely manufacturing and
commercial, home competition and abun-
dance of capital may so reduce the price of
manufactured compared with raw produce,
that the increased capital employed in ma-
nufactures may not procure in exchange an
increased quantity of food. In a country
where there are resources in land this can-
not happen; and though from improve-
ments in machinery and the decreasing
fertility of the new land taken into cultiva-
tion, a greater quantity of manufactures
will be given for raw produce, yet the mass
of manufactures can never fall in value,
owing
Ch. X. and Commetxe comb'med. ifSb
owing to a competition of capital in this
species ofindustry, unaccompanied by a cor-
respondent competition of capital on land.
It should also be observed that in a state,
the revenue of which consists solely in pro-
fits and wages, the diminution of profits and
wages may greatly impair its disposable in-
come. The increase in the amount of ca-
pital and in the number of labourers may
in many cases not be sufficient to make up
for the diminished rate of profits and wages.
But where the revenue of the country con-
sists of rents as well as profits and wages, a
great part of what is lost in profits and
wages is gained in rents, and the disposable
income remains comparatively unimpaired.
Another eminent advantage possessed by
a nation which is rich in land, as well as in
commerce and manufactures, is, that the
progress of its wealth and population is in a
comparatively slight degree dependent upon
the state and progress of other countries. A
nation, whose wealth depends exclusively on
manufactures and commerce, cannot in-
crease without an increase in the raw pro-
ducts of the countries with which it trades ;
or
426 Of Systems of Agriculture Bk. iii.
or taking away a share of what they have
been in the habit of actually consuming,
which will rarely be parted with ; and thus
the ignorance and indolence of others may
not only be prejudicial, but fatal to its
progress.
A country with resources in land can
never be exposed to these inconveniences ;
and if its industry, ingenuity and econo-
m}^ increase, its wealth and population
will increase, whatever may be the situation
and conduct of the nations with which it
trades. When its manufacturing capital
becomes redundant, and manufactured
commodities are too cheap, it will have no
occasion to wait for the increasing raw pro-
ducts of its neighbours. The transfer of its
own redundant capital to its own land Avill
raise fresh products, against which its ma-
nufactures may be exchanged, and by the
double operation of diminishing compara-
tively the supply, and increasing the de-
maiid, enhance their price. A similar ope-
ration, when raw produce is too abundant,
will restore the level between the profits of
agriculture and manufactures. And upon
the
Ch. X. and Commerce combined. 427
the same principle the stock of the country
will be distributed through its various and
distant provinces, according to the advan-
tages presented by each situation for the
employment, either of agricultural or ma-
nufacturing capital.
A country, in which in this manner agri-
culture, manufactures, and commerce, and
all the different parts of a large territory , act
and re-act upon each other in turn, might
evidently go on increasing in riches and
strength, although surrounded by Bishop
Berkely's wall of brass. Such a country
would naturally make the most of its fo-
reign commerce, whatever might be the ac-
tual state of it ; and its increase or decrease
would be the addition or removal of a pow-
erful stimulus to its own produce; but still
the increase of this produce, to a very con-
siderable extent, would be independent of
foreign countries; and though it might be
retarded by a failure of foreign commerce,
it could not either be stopped or be made
retrograde.
A fourth advantage derived from the
union of agriculture and manufactures,
particularly
428 Of SysteTtis of Agriculture Bk. iii.
particularly when they are nearly balanced,
is that the capital and population of such a
country can never be forced to make a re-
trograde movement, merely by the natural
progress of other countries to that state of
improvement to which they are all con-
stantly tending.
According to all general principles, it will
finally answer to most landed nations, both
to manufacture for themselves, and to con-
duct their own commerce. That raw cot-
tons should be shipped in America, carried
some thousands of miles to another country,
unshipped there, to be manufactured and
shipped again for the American market, is
a state of things which cannot be perma-
nent. That it may last for some time, there
can be no doubt ; and I am very far fi-om
meaning to insinuate that an advantage,
while it lasts, should not be used, merely
because it will not continue for ever. But
if the advantage be in its nature temporary,
it is surely prudent to have this in view, and
to use it in such a way, that when it ceases,
it may not have been productive, on the
whole, of more evil than good.
If
Ch. X. and Commerce combined. 429
It' a country, owing to temporary advaiiT
tages of this kind, should liave its commerce
and manufactures so greatly preponderate
as to make it necessary to support a large
portion of its people on foreign corn, it is
certain that the progressive improvenient
of foreign countries in manufactures and
commerce might, after a tune, subject it to
a period of poverty and of retrograde move-
ments in capital and population, which
might more than counterbalance the tem-
porary benefits before enjoyed. While a
nation in which the commercial and manu-
ikcturing population continued to be sup-
ported by its agriculture, might receive a
very considerable stimulus to both, from
such temporary advantages, without being
exposed to any essential evil on their
ceasing.
The countries which thus unite great
landed resources with a prosperous state
of commerce and manufactures, and in
which the commercial part of the popula-
tion never essentially exceeds the agricul-
tural part, are eminently secure from sudden
reverses. Their increasing wealth seems to
be
430 Of Systems of Agriculture Bk. iii.
be out of the reach of all common accidents ;
and there is no reason to say that they might
not go on increasing in riches and popula-
tion for hundreds, nay almost thousands of
years.
We must not however imagine that there
is no limit to this progress though it is dis-
tant, and has certainly not been attained
by any large landed nation yet known.
We have already seen that the limit to
the population of commercial nations is the
period when, from the actual state of fo-
reign markets, they are unable regularly to
import an increasing quantity of food.
And the limit to the population of a nation
which raises the whole of its food on its
own territory is, when the land has been so
fully occupied and worked, that the em-
ployment of another labourer on it will not on
an average raise an additional quantity of
food sufficient to support a family of such a
size as will admit of an increase of population.
This is evidently the extreme practical
limit to the progress of population, which
no nation has ever yet reached, nor indeed
ever will ; since no allowance has been here
made
Ch. X. and Commerce combined. 431
made either for other necessaries besides
food, or for the profits of stock, both of
which, however low, must always be some-
thing not inconsiderable.
Yet even this limit is very far short of
what the earth is capable of producing, if
all were employed upon it who were not
employed in the production of other neces-
saries ; that is, if soldiers, sailors, menial
servants and all the artificers of luxuries,
were made to labour upon the land. They
would not indeed produce the support of
a family, and ultimately not even of them-
selves ; but till the earth absolutely refused
to yield any more, they would continue to
add something to the common stock ; and
by increasing the means of subsistence,
would afford the means of supporting an
increasing population. The whole people
of a country might thus be employed
during their whole time in the production
of mere necessaries, and no leisure be left
for other pursuits of any kind. But this
state of things could only be effected by
the forced direction of the national industry
into one channel by public authority. Upon
the
432 Of Systems of Agriculture Bk. iii.
the principle of private property, which
it may be fairly presumed will always pre-
vail in society, it could never happen.
With a view to the individual interest either
of a landlord or farmer, no labourer can
ever be employed on the soil, who does not
produce more than the value of his wages ;
and if these wages be not on an average
sufficient to maintain a wife, and rear two
children to the age of marriage, it is evident
that both the population and produce must
come to a stand. Consequently, at the
most extreme practical limit of population,
the state of the land must be such as to
enable the last 'employed labourers to pro-
duce the maintenance of as many, probably,
as four persons.
And it is happy for mankind that such
are the laws of nature. If the competition
for the necessaries of life, in the progress
of population, could reduce the whole hu-
man race to the necessity of incessant
labour for them, man would be continually
tending to a state of degradation; and all
the improvements which had marked the
mid die stages of his career would be com-
pletely
I
Ch. X. and Commerce cotnbined. 433
pletely lost at the end of it ; but in reality,
and according to the universal principle of
private property, at the period when it will
cease to answer to employ more labour
upon the land, the excess of raw produce,
not actually consumed by the cultivators,
will, in the shape of rents, profits, and
wages, particularly the first, bear nearly as
great a proportion to the whole as at any
previous period, and, at all events, suf-
ficient to support a large part of the so-
ciety living either without manual labour,
or employing themselves in modifying the
raw materials of the land into the forms
best suited to the gratification of man.
When we refer therefore to the practical
limits of population, it is of great import-
ance to recollect that they must be alwa3's
very far short of the utmost power of the
earth to produce food.
It is also of great importance to recollect
that long before this practical limit is at-
tained in any country the rate of the in-
crease of population will gradually diminish.
When the capital of a country becomes
stationary from bad government, indolence,
VOL. II. 2 p extravagance,
434 Of Systems of Agriculture Bk. iii.
extravagance, or a sudden shock to com-
merce, it is just possible that the check to
population may in some degree be sudden,
though in that case it cannot take place
without a considerable convulsion. But
when the capital of a country comes to a
stop from the continued progress of accu-
mulation and the exhaustion of the culti-
vable land, both the profits of stock and
the wages of labour must have been gra-
dually diminishing for along period, till they
are both ultimately so low as to afford no
further encouragement to an increase of
stock, and no further means for the sup-
port of an increasing population. If we
could suppose that the capital employed
upon the land was at all times as great as
could possibly be applied with the same pro-
fit, and there were no agricultural improve-
ments to save labour, it is obvious that, as ac-
cumulation proceeded, profits and wages
would regularly fall, and the diminished rate
in the progress of population would be quite
regular. But practically this can never hap-
pen ; and various causes, both natural and
artificial, will concur to prevent this re-
gularit}^.
Ch. X. and Commei'ce cotnbined 435
gularity, and occasion great variations at
different times in the rate at whicJi the po-
pulation proceeds towards its final hniit.
In the first place, land is practically al-
most always understocked with capital. This
arises partly, from the usual tenures on
which farms are held, which, by discou-
raging the transfer of capital from com-
merce and manufactures, leaves it princi-
pally to be generated on the land ; and
partly , from the very nature of much of the soil
of almost all large countries, which is such
that the employment of a small ca{)ital
upon it may be little productive, while the
employment of a large capital in draining,
or in changing the character of the soil by
a sufficient quantity of natural and artificial
manures, may be productive in a high de-
gree; and partly also, from the circumstance
that after every fall of profits and wages
there will often be room for the employment
of a nmch greater capital upon the land
than is at the command of those, who, by
being in the actual occupation of farms,
can alone so employ it.
Secondly ; improvements in agriculture.
2 F 2 If
436 Of Systems of Agriculture Bk. iiil
If new and superior modes of cultivation
be invented, by which not only the land is
better managed, but is worked with less
labour, it is obvious that inferior land
may be cultivated at higher profits than
could be obtained from richer land before ;
and an improved system of culture, with the
use of better instruments, may for a long
period more than counterbalance the ten-
dency of an extended cultivation and a
great increase of capital to yield smaller
proportionate returns.
Thirdly; improvements in manufactures.
When by increased skill and the invention of
improved machinery in manufactures one
man becomes capable of doing as much as
eight or ten could before, it is well known
that, from the principle of home competition
and the consequent great increase of quan-
tity, the prices of such manufactures will
greatly fall; and, as far as they include the
necessaries and accustomed conveniences
of labourers and farmers, they must tend
to diminish that portion of the value of the
whole produce which is consumed neces-
sarily on the land, and leave a larger re-
mainder.
Ch. X. and Commerce combined. 437
maipder. From this larger remainder may
be drawn a liigher rate of profits, not-
withstanding the increase of capital and
extension of cultivation.
Fourthly ; the prosperity of foreign com-
merce. If from a prosperous foreign com-
merce our labour and domestic commodities
rise considerably in price^ while foreign
commodities are advanced comparatively
very little, an event which is very common,
it is evident that the farmer or labourer will
be able to obtain the tea, sugar, cottons>
linens, leather, tallow, timber, &c., which
he stands in need of, for a smaller quantity
of corn or labour than before ; and this
increased power of purchasing foreign com-
modities will have precisely the same effect,
in allowing the means of an extended cul-
tivation without a fall of profits, as the
improvements in manufactures just re-
ferred to.
Fifthly ; a temporary increase in the re-
lative price of raw produce from increased
demand. Allowing, what is certainly not
true, that a rise in the price of raw
produce, will after a certain number of
years,
438 Of Systems of Agriculture Bk. iii.
years, occasion a pro{5ortionate rise in la-
bour^ and other commodities, yet, dm'ing
the time that the price of raw pro-
duce takes the lead, it is obvious that
the profits of cultivation maj increase un-
der an extended agriculture, and a con-
tinued accumulation of capital. And these
intervals, it should be observed, must be
of infinite importance in the progress of the
wealth of a landed nation, particularly with
reference to the causes of deficient capital
upon the land before mentioned. If the
land for the most part generates the new
capital which is employed in extending its
cultivation] and if the employment of a
considerable capital for a certain period
will ol'ten put land in such a state, that it
can be cultivated afterwards at compara-
tively little expense; a period of i igh agri-
cultural profits, though it may last only
* A rise, which is occasioned exclusively by the in-
creased quantity of labour which may be required in the
progress of society to raise a given quantity of corn on
the last land taken into cultivation, must of course be
peculiar to raw produce, and will not be communicated
to those commodities, in the production of which there
is no increase of labour.
eight
Cli. X. and CGmmerce combi?ied. 439
eight or ten years, may often be the means
of giving to a country what is equivalent to
afresh quantity olland.
Though it is unquestionably and neces-
sarily true, therefore, that the tendency of
a continually increasing capital and ex-
tending cuhivation is to occasion a pro-
gressive fall both of profits and wages ; yet
the causes above enumerated are evidently
sufficient to account for great and long irre-
gularities in this progress.
We see in consequence, in all the states
of Europe, great variations at ditferent pe-
riods in the progress of their capital and
population. After slumbering for years in
a state almost stationary, some countries
have made a sudden start, and have begun
increasing at a rate almost approaching
to new colonies. Russia and parts of
Prussia have afforded instances of tliis
kind, and have continued this rate of pro-
gress after the accumulation of capital
and the extension of cultivation had been
proceeding with great rapidity for many
years.
From the operation of the same causes
we
440 Of Systems of Agriculturt Bk. iii,
we have seen similar variations in our own
country. About the middle of last century
the interest of money was at 3 per cent. ;
and we may conclude tl\at the profits of
stock were nearly in proportion. At that
time, as far as can be collected from the
births and marriages, the population was
increasing but slowly. From 1720 to 1750,
a period of SO years, the increase is calcu-
lated to have been only about 900,000 on
a population of 5,565,000^. Since this
period it cannot be doubted that the capital
of the country has been prodigiously en-
larged, and its cultivation very greatly
extended ; yet, during the last twenty years,
we have seen the interest of money at above
5 per cent., ynXh. profits in proportion ; and,
from 1800 to 1811, an increase of popu-
lation equal to 1,200,000 on 9,287,000, a
rate of increase about two and a half times
as great as at the former period.
But, notwithstanding these causes of ir-
regularity in the progress of capital and
population, it is quite certain that they can-
* Population Abstracts, Preliminary Observations,
table, p. XXV.
not
Ch. X. and Commerce combined. 441
not reach their necessary practical Hmit but
by a very gradual process. Before the accu-
mulation of capital comes to a stop from
necessity, the profits of stock must for a long
time have been so low as to afford scarcely
any encouragement to an excess of saving
above expenditure; and before the progress
of population is finally stopped, the real
wages of labour must have been gradually
diminishing, till, under the existing habits
of the people, they could only support such
families as would just keep up, and no more
than keep up, the actual population.
It appears then, that it is the union of
the agricultural and commercial systems,
and not either of them taken separately,
that is calculated to produce the greatest
national prosperity ; that a country with
an extensive and rich territory, the cultiva-
tion of which is stimulated by improve-
ments in agriculture, manufactures and
foreign commerce, has such various and
abundant resources, that it is extremely
difficult to say when they will reach their
limits. That there is, however, a limit
which, if the capital and population of a
country
442 df Systems of Agriculture, ^c. Bk. iii.
country continue increasing, they must
ultimately reach, and cannot pass ; and
that this limit, upon the principle of
private property, must be far short of
the utmost power of the earth to produce
food.
CHAP.
{ 443 )
CHAP. XL
Of Corn-Laws. Bounties upon Exportation.
It has been observed that some countries,
with great resources in land, and an evi-
dent power of supporting a greatly increased
population from their own soil, have yet
been in the habit of importing large quan-
tities of foreign corn, and have become
dependent upon other states for a great
part of their supplies.
The causes which may lead to this state
of things seem to be chiefly the following :
First; any obstacles which the laws,
constitutions and customs of a country pre-
sent to the accumulation of capital on
the land, which do not apply with equal
force to the increasing employment of
capital in commerce and manufactures.
In every state in which the feudal system
has prevailed, there are laws and customs
of this kind, which prevent the free divi-
sion and alienation of land like other pro-
perty,
444 Of Corn Laws^ and Bk. iii.
pertj, and render the preparations for an
extension of cultivation often both very
difficult and very expensive. Improvements
in such countries are chiefly carried on by
tenants, alarge part of whom have not leases,
or at least leases of any length; and though
their wealth and respectability have of late
years very greatly increased, yet it is not
possible to put them on a footing with en-
terprising owners, and to give them the
same independence, and the same encou-
ragement to employ their capitals with
spirit, as merchants and manufacturers.
Secondly ; a system of direct or indirect
taxation, of such a nature as to throw
a weight upon the agriculture of a country,
which is either unequal, or, from peculiar
circumstances, can be better borne by
commerce and manufactures.
It is universally allowed that a direct tax
on corn grown at home, if not counter-
balanced by a corresponding tax on the
importation of it, might be such as to
destroy at once the cultivation of grain,
and make a country import the whole of its
consumption; and a partial effect of the
same
Ch. xi. Bounties upon Exportation. 445
same kind would follow, if, by a system of
indirect taxation, the general price of la-
bour were raised and yet by means of
drawbacks on home and foreign commo-
dities, by an abundance of colonial pro-
duce, and by those peculiar articles*, the
demand for which abroad would not be
much affected by the increase of price,
the value of the whole of the exports,
though not the quantity, might admit of
increase.
Thirdly ; improved machinery, combined
with extensive capital and a very advan-
tageous division of labour.
If in any country, by means of capital
and machinery, one man be enabled to do
the work of ten, it is quite obvious that
before the same advantages are extended to
other countries, a rise in the price of la-
bour will but very little interfere with the
power of selling those sorts of commodities,
in the production of which the capital and
machinery are so effectively apphed. It is
quite true that an advance in the necessary
wages of labour, which increases the ex-
' A rise in the price of labour in Cliina would certainly
increase the returns which it receives for its teas.
pense
446 Of Corn Laws y and Bk. iii.
pense of raising corn, may have the same
effect upon many commodities besides corn;
and if there were no others, no encourage-
ment would be given to the importation of
foreign grain, as there might be no means
by which it could be purchased cheaper
abroad. But a large class of the exportable
commodities of a commercial country are
of a different description. They are either
articles in a considerable degree peculiar
to the country and its dependencies, or such
as have been produced by superior capital
and machinery, the prices of which are
determined rather by domestic than foreign
competition. All commodities of this kind
will evidently be able to support without
essential injury an advance in the price of
labour, some permanently, and others for a
considerable time. The rise in the price
of the commodity so occasioned, or rather
the prevention of that fall which would
otherwise have taken place, may always
indeed have the effect of decreasing in some
degree the quantity of the commodity ex-
ported ; but it by no means follows that it
will diminish the whole of its bullion
value in the foreign country, which is
precisely
Ch. xi. Bounties upon Ea^portation. 447
precisely what determines the bulhon
value, and generally the quantity of the
returns. If cottons in this country were
now to fall to half their present price, we
should undoubtedly export a greater quan-
tity than we do at present ; but 1 very much
doubt whether we should export double the
quantity, and yet we must do this to enable
us to command as much foreign produce as
before. In this case, as in numerous others
of the same kind, quantity and value go
together to a certain point, though not at
an equal pace ; but, beyond this point, a
further increase of quantity only diminishes
the whole value produced, and the amount
of the returns that can be obtained for it.
It is obvious then that a country, not-
withstanding a high comparative price of
labour and of materials, may easily stand
a competition with foreigners in those com-
modities to which it can apply a superior
capital and machinery with great effect;
although such a price of labour and mate-
rials might give an undisputed advantage
to foreigners in agriculture and some other
sorts of produce, where the same saving of
labour
448 Of Corn-Laws, and Bk. iii.
labour cannot take place. Consequently
such a country may find it cheaper to pur-
chase a considerable part of its supplies of
grain from abroad with its manufactures
and peculiar products, than to grow the
whole at home.
If, from all or any of these causes, a
nation becomes habitually dependent on
foreign countries for the support of a consi-
derable portion of its population, it must
evidently be subjected, while such depen-
dence lasts, to some of those evils which
belong to a nation purely manufacturing
and commercial. In one respect, indeed,
it will still continue to have a great supe-
riority. It will possess resources in land,
which may be resorted to when its manu-
factures and commerce, either from foreign
competition, or any other causes, begin to
fail. But, to balance this advantage, it
will be subjected, during the time that
large importations are necessary, to much
greater fluctuations in its supplies of corn,
than countries wholly manufacturing and
commercial. The demands of Holland and
Hamburgh may be known with considerable
accuracy
Ch. xi. Bounties upon Export atioji. 449
accuracy by the merchants who supply
them. If they increase, they increase gra-
dually ; and, not being subject from year
to year to any great and sudden variations,
it might be safe and practicable to make
regular contracts for the average quantity
'wanted. But it is otherwise with such coun-
tries as England and Spain. Their wants
are necessarily very variable, from the vari-
ableness of the seasons; and if the merchants
were to contract with exporting countries
for the quantity required in average years,
two or three abundant seasons might ruin
them. They must necessarily wait to
see the state of the crops in each year, in
order safely to regulate their proceedings ;
and though it is certainly true that it is
only the deficiency from the average crop,
and not the whole deficiency, which may
be considered altogether in the light of a
new demand in Europe ; yet the largeness
and previous uncertainty of this whole defi-
ciency, the danger of making contracts for
a stated quantity annuall}^ and the greater
chance of hostile combinations against large
and warlike states, must greatly aggravate
VOL. II. 2 G the
455 Of Corn-Lcews, mid Bk. iii.
the difficulties of procuring a steady supply ;
and if it be true that unfavourable seasons
are not unfrequently general, it is impossi-
ble to conceive that they should not occa-
sionally be subject to great variations of
price.
It has been sometimes stated that scarci-
ties are partial, not general, and that a de-
ficiency in one country is always compen-
sated by a plentiful supply in others. But
this seems to be quite an unfounded sup-
position. In the evidence brought before
the Committee of the House of Commons
ni 1814, relating to the corn-laws, one of
the corn merchants being asked whether it
frequently happened that crops in the coun-
tries bordering upon the Baltic failed, when
they failed here, replied, " When crops
" are unfavourable in one part of Europe,
" it generally happens that they are more
" or less so in another ^." If any person
will take the trouble to examine the con-
temporaneous prices of corn in the different
countries of Europe for some length of
time, he will be convinced that the answer
• Report, p. 93.
here
Ch. xi. Bounties upon E.vportation. 451
here given is perfectly just. In the last
hundred and fifty years, above twenty will
be found in which the rise of prices is com-
mon to France and England, although there
was seldom much intercourse between them
in the trade of corn : and Spain and the
Baltic nations, as far as their prices have
been collected, appear frequently to have
shared in the same general deficiency. Even
within the last five years, two have occurred,
the years 1811-12, and 1816-17, in which,
with extraordinary high prices in this coun-
try, the imports have been comparatively
inconsiderable; which can only have arisen
from those scarcities having been general
over the greatest part of Europe.
Under these circumstances let us suppose
that two million quarters of foreign grain
were the average quantity annually wanted
in this country, and suppose, at the same
time, that a million quarters were deficient
from a bad season ; the whole deficiency
to be supplied would then be three millions.
If the scarcity were general in Europe,
it may fairly be concluded, that some states
would prohibit the export of their corn
2 G 2 entirely,
452 Of Corn-Laws, and Bk. iii.
entirely, and others tax it very highly ; and if
we could obtain a million or fifteen hundred
thousand quarters, it is probably as much
as we could reasonably expect. We should
then, however, be two millions or fifteen hun-
dred thousand quarters deficient. On the
other hand, if we had habitually grown our
own consumption, and were deficient a mil-
lionof quarters from a bad season, it is scarce-
ly probable that, no t^vith standing a general
scarcity, we should not be able to obtain
three or four hundred thousand quarters
in consequence of our advanced prices;
particularly if the usual prices of our corn
and labour were higher than in the rest of
Europe. And in this case the sum of our
whole deficiency would only be six or seven
hundred thousand quarters, instead of fifteen
hundred thousand or two millions of quar-
ters. If fne present year (1816-17) had
found us in a state in which our growth of
corn had been habitually far short of our
consumption, the distresses of the country
would have been dreadfully aggravated.
To provide against accidents of this kind,
and to secure a more abundant and, at the
time,
Ch. xi. Bounties upon Exportation. 453
time, a more steady supply of grain, a
system of corn-laws has been reconmiended
the object of which is to discourage by du-
ties or prohibitions the importation of fo-
reign corn, and encourage by bounties the
exportation of corn of home growtli.
A system of this kind was completed in
our own country in 1688% the policy of
which has been treated of at some length
by Adam Smith.
In whatever way the general question
may be finally decided, it must be allowed
by all those who acknowledge the efficacy
of the great principle of supply and de-
mand that the line of argument taken by
the author of the Wealth of Nations against
the system is essentially erroneous.
He first states that, whatever extension of
the foreign market can be occasioned by
the bounty, must in every particular year
be altogether at the expense of the home
* Though the object here stated may not have been the
specific object of the law of 1688, it is certainly the ob-
ject for which the system has been subsequently recom-
mended.
maiket,
454 Of Corn-L(ms, and Bk. iii.
market, as every bushel of corn which is
exported by means of the bounty, and
which would not have been exported with-
out the bounty, would have remained in the
home market to increase the consumption,
and to lower the price of that commodity *.
In this observation he evidently misap-
phes the term market. Because, by selling
a commodity lower, it is easy to get rid of
a greater quantity of it, in any particular
market, than would have gone off other-
wise, it cannot justly be said that by this
process such a market is proportionally
extended. Though the removal of the two
taxes mentioned by Adam Smith as paid
on account of the bounty would certainly
increase the power of the lower classes to
purchase, yet in each particular year the
consumption must ultimately be limited by
the population, and the increase of con-
sumption from the removal of these taxes
would by no means be sufficient to give
the same encouragement to cultivation as
the addition of the foreign demand. If
• Vol.ii. b. iv. C.5.
the
Ch. xi. Boutities upon Exportation. 455
the price of British corn in the home market
rise in consequence of the bounty, before
the price of production is increased (and
an immediate rise is distinctly acknow-
ledged by Adam Smith), it is an unanswer-
able proof that the effectual demand for
British corn is extended by it; and that
the diminution of demand at home, whatever
it may be, is more than counterbalanced
by the extension of demand abroad.
Adam Smith goes on to say that the two
taxes paid by the people on account of the
bounty, namely, the one to the government
to pay this bounty, and the other paid in
the advanced price of the commodity, must
either reduce the subsistence of the la-
bouring poor, or occasion an augmen-
tation in their pecuniary wages propor-
tioned to that in the pecuniary price of
their subsistence. So far as it operates in
the one way it must reduce the ability of
the labouring poor to educate and bring
up their children, and must so far tend to
restrain the population of the country. So
far as it operates in the other, it must reduce
the ability of the employers of the poor to
employ
456 Of Corn-Laws, and Bk. iii.
employ so great a number as they otherwise
might do, and must so far tend to restrain
the industry of the country.
It will be readily allowed that the tax
occasioned by the bounty will have the
one or the other of the effects here contem-
plated; but it cannot be allowed that it
will have both. Yet it is observed, that
though the tax, which that institution im-
poses upon the whole body of the people,
be very burdensome to those who pay it, it
IS of very little advantage to those w^ho
receive it. This is surely a contradiction.
If the price of labour rise in proportion to
the price of wheat, as is subsequently as-
serted, how is the labourer rendered less
competent to support a family ? If the price
of labour do not rise in proportion to the
price of wheat, bow is it possible to main-
tain that the landlords and farmers are noi
able to employ more labourers on their
land ? Yet in this contradiction the author
of the Wealth of Nations has had respect-
able followers ; and some of those who have
agreed with him in his opinion that corn
regulates the prices of labour, and of all
other
Ch. xi. Bounties upon Expoi^tation. 457
other commodities, still insist on the injury
done to the labouring classes of socie \ by
a rise in the price of corn, and the benefit
they would derive from a fall.
The main argument however which Adam
Smith adduces against the bounty is, that
as the money price of corn regulates that of
all other home-made commodities, the ad-
vantage to the proprietor from the increase
of money price is merely apparent, and not
real ; since what he gains in his sales he
must lose in his purchases.
This position, though true to a certain
extent, is by no means true to the extent of
preventing the movement of capital to or
from the land, which is the precise point in
question. The money price of corn in a
particular country is undoubtedly by far
the most powerful ingredient in regulating
the price of labour, and of all other com-
modities ; but it is not enough for Adam
Smith's position that it should be the most
powerful ingredient ; it must be shewn that,
other causes remaining the same, the price
of every article will rise and fall exactly in
proportion to the price of corn, and this is
very
458 Of Corn-Laws, and Bk. iii.
very far from being the case. Adam Smith
himself excepts all foreign commodities;
but when we reflect upon the vast amount
of our imports, and the quantity of foreign
articles used in our manufactures, this ex-
ception alone is of the greatest importance.
Wool and raw hides, two most important
materials of home growth, do not, according
to Adam Smith's own reasonings, (Book I.
c. xi. p. 363, et seq.) depend much upon
the price of corn and the rent of land ; and
the prices of flax, tallow, and leather, are
of course greatly influenced by the quantity
we import. But woollen cloths, cotton
and hnen goods, leather, soap, candles, tea,
sugar &c., which are comprehended in the
above-named articles, form almost the whole
of the clothing and luxuries of the indus-
trious classes of society.
It should be further observed that in all
countries, the industry of which is greatly
assisted by fixed capital, the part of the
price of the wrought commodity which
pays the profits of such capital will not
necessarily rise in consequence of an ad-
vance in the price of corn, except as it re-
quires
Ch. xi. Bounties upon Ea:portation. 469
quires gradual renovation ; and the advan-
tage derived from machinery which has
been constructed before the advance in the
price of labour v^^ill naturally last for some
years.
In the case also of great and numerous
taxes on consumption, a rise or fall in the
price of corn, though it would increase or
decrease that part of the wages of labour
which resolves itself into food, evidently
would not increase or decrease that pari
which is destined for the payment of taxes.
It cannot then be admitted as a gene-
ral position that the money price of corn
in any country is a just measure of the
real value of silver in that country. But
all these considerations, though of great
weight to the owners of land, will not influ-
ence the farmers beyond the present leases.
At the expiration of a lease, any particular
advantage which a farmer had received
from a favourable proportion between the
price of com and of labour would be taken
from him, and any disadvantage from an
unfavourable proportion be made up to
him. The sole cause which would deter-
mine
460 Of Corn-Laws^ and Bk.iii.
mine the proportion of capital employed
in agriculture, would be the extent of the
effectual demand for corn ; and if tlie
bounty had really enlarged this demand,
which it certainly would have done, it is
impossible to suppose that more capital
would not be employed upon the land.
When Adam Smith says that the nature
of things has stamped upon corn a real
value, which cannot be altered by merely
altering the money price, and that no
bounty upon exportation, no monopoly of
the home market, can raise that value, nor
the freest competition lower it, it is obvious
that he changes the question from the pro-
fits of the growers of corn, or of the pro-
prietors of the land, to the physical and
absolute value of corn itself. I certainly
do not mean to say that the bounty alters
the physical value of corn, and makes a
bushel of it support equally well a greater
number of labourers than it did before ;
but I certainly do mean to say that the
bounty to the British cultivator does, in the
actual state of things, really increase the
demand for British corn, and thus encou-
rage
Ch. xi. Bowities upon E.rportation. 461
rage him to sow more than he otherwise
would do, and enables him in consequence
to employ more bushels of corn in the
maintenance of a greater number of la-
bourers.
If Adam Smith's theory were true, and
the real price of corn were unchangeable,
or not capable of experiencing a relative
increase or decrease of value compared
■with labour and other commodities, agri-
culture would indeed be in an unfortunate
situation. It would be at once excluded
from the operation of that principle so beau-
tifully explained in the Wealth of Nations,
by which capital flows from one employ-
ment to another, according to the various
and necessarily fluctuating wants of society.
But surely we cannot doubt that the real
price of corn varies, though it may not
vary so much as the real price of other
commodities ; and that there are periods
when all wrought commodities are cheaper,
and periods when they are dearer, in pro-
portion to the price of corn ; and in the
one case capital flows from manufactures
to agriculture, and in the other from agri-
culture
462 Of Corn-Laws, and Bk. iii.
culture to manufactures. To overlook these
periods, or consider them of slight import-
ance, is not allowable ; because in every
branch of trade these periods fonn the
grand encouragement to an increase of
supply. Undoubtedly the profits of trade
in any particular branch of industry can
never long remain higher than in others ;
but how are they lowered except by the
influx of capital occasioned by these high
profits? It never can be a national object
permanently to increase the profits of any
particular set of dealers. The national
object is the increase of supply ; but this
object cannot be attained except by previ-
ously increasing the profits of these dealers,
and thus determining a greater quantity of
capital to this particular employment. The
ship-owners and sailors of Great Britain
do not make greater profits now than they
did before the Navigation Act ; but the
object of the nation was not to increase the
profits of ship-owners and sailors, but the
quantity of shipping and seamen ; and this
could not be done but by a law, which, by
increasing the demand for them, raised the
profits
Ch. xi. Bounties upon Exportation. 463
profits of the capital before employed in
this way, and determined a greater quan-
tity to flow into the same channel. The
object of a nation in the establishment of a
bounty is, not to increase the profits of the
farmers or the rents of the landlords, but
to determine a greater quantity of the na-
tional capital to the land, and consequently
to increase supply ; and though, in the case
of an advance in the price of corn from an
increased demand, the rise of wages, the
rise of rents and the fall of silver tend, in
some degree, to obscure our view of the
subject ; yet we cannot refuse to acknow-
ledge that the real price of com varies
during periods sufficiently long to affect
the deteniiination of capital, or we shall be
reduced to the dilemma of owning that no
possible degree of demand can encourage
the gro^nh of corn.
It must be allowed then that the peculiar
argument relating to the nature of corn
brought forward by Adam Smith upon this
occasion cannot be maintained ; and that
a bounty upon the exportation of corn must
enlarge the demand for it and encourage
its
464 Of Corn-laws, and Bk. iii.
its production in the same manner, if not
in the same degree, as a bounty upon the
exportation of any other commodity.
But it has been urged further that this
increased production of corn must neces-
sarily occasion permanent cheapness ; and
a period of considerable length, during the
first 64 years of the last century, while a
bounty was in full operation in this country,
has been advanced as a proof of it. In
this conclusion, however, it may be reason-
ably suspected that an effect, in its nature
temporary, though it may be of some du-
ration, has been mistaken for one which is
necessarily^ permanent.
According to the theory of demand and
supply, the bounty might be expected to
operate in the following manner :
It is frequently stated in the Wealth of
Nations that a great demand is folloAved by
a great supply ; a great scarcity by a great
plenty ; an unusual dearness by an unusual
cheapness. A great and indefinite demand
is indeed generally found to produce a
supply more than proportioned to it. This
supply as naturally occasions unusual
cheapness ;
I
Ch. xi. Bounties upon Exportation, 465
cheapness ; but this cheapness, when it
comes, must in its turn check the produc-
tion of the commodity ; and this check,
upon the same principle, is apt to continue
longer than necessary, and again to occasion
a return to high prices.
This appears to be the manner in which
a bounty upon the exportation of corn, if
granted under circumstances favourable to
its efficiency, might be expected to operate,
and this seems to have been the manner in
which it really did operate in the only in-
stance where it has been fairly tried.
Without meaning to deny the concur-
rence of other causes, or attempting to
estimate the relative efficiency of the
bounty, it is impossible not to acknowledge
that when the growing price of corn was,
according to Adam Smith, only 28 shillings
a quarter, and the corn-markets of England
were as low as those of the continent, a pre-
mium of five shillings a quarter upon ex-
portation must have occasioned an increase
of real price, and given encouragement to
the cultivation of grain. But the changes
produced in the direction of capital to or
VOL. II. 2 H from
466 Of Corn-Laws. Bk. iii.
from the land will always be slow. Those
who have been in the habit of employing
their stock in mercantile concerns do not
readily turn it into the channel of agri-
culture ; and it is a still more difficult and
slower operation to withdraw capital from
the soil, to employ it in commerce. For
the first 25 years after the estabhshment
of the bounty in this country the price of
corn rose 2 or 3 shillings in the quarter :
but owing probably to the wars of William
and Anne, to bad seasons, and a scarcity
of money, capital seems to have accumu-
lated slowly on the land, and no great sur-
plus growth was effected. It was not till
after the peace of Utrecht that the capital
of the country began in a marked manner
to increase ; and it is impossible that the
bounty should not gradually have directed
a larger portion of this accumulation to the
land than would otherwise have gone to it.
A surplus growth, and a fall of price for
thirty or forty 3 ears, followed.
It will be said that this period of low
prices was too long to be occasioned by
a bounty, even according to the theory
just
Ch. xi. Bounties upon Eafortation. 467
just laid down. This is perhaps true, and
in all probabihty the period would have
been shorter if the bounty alone had ope-
rated ; but in this case other causes power-
fully combined with it.
The fall in the price of British corn was
accompanied by a fall of prices on the
continent. Whatever were the general
causes which produced this effect in fo-
reign countries, it is probable that they
were not wholly inoperative in England.
At all events nothing could be so power-
fully calculated to produce cheapness, and
to occasion a slow return to high prices, as
a considerable surplus growth, which was
unwillingly received, and only at low
prices, by other nations. When such a
surplus growth had been obtained, some
time would necessarily be required to de-
stroy it by cheapness, particularly as the
moral stinmlus of the bounty would pro-
bably continue to act long after the fall of
prices had commenced. If to these causes
we add that a marked fall in the rate of
interest, about the same time, evinced an
abundance of capital, and a consequent
2 H 2 difficulty
468 Of Corn-Laws. Bk. iii.
difficulty of finding a profitable employ-
ment for it ; and consider further the na-
tural obstacles to the moving of capital
from the land ; we shall see sufficient reason
why even a long period might elapse with-
out any essential alteration in the compa-
rative abundance and cheapness of corn.
Adam Smith attributes this cheapness to
a rise in the value of silver. The fall in the
price of corn which took place in France
and some other countries about the same
time might give some countenance to the
conjecture. But the accounts we have
lately had of the produce of the mines
during the period in question does not
sufficiently support it ; and it is much
more probable that it arose from the com-
parative state of peace in which Europe
was placed after the termination of the
wars of Louis XIV., which facilitated the
accumulation of capital on the land, and
encouraged agricultural improvements.
With regard to this country, indeed, it
is observed by Adam Smith himself, that
labour and other articles were rising; a fact
very unfavourable to the supposition of an
increased
Ch. xi. Bounties upon Exportation. 469
increased value of the precious metals.
Not only the money price of corn I'ell,
but its value relative to other articles was
lowered, and this fall of relative value, to-
gether with great exportations, clearly
pointed to a relative abundance of corn,
in whatever way it might be occasioned,
as the main cause of the facts observed,
rather than a scarcity of silver. This great
fall in the British corn-market, particularly
during the ten years from 1740 to 1750,
accompanied by a great fall in the con-
tinental markets, owing in some degree
perhaps to the great exportations of British
corn, especially during the years 1748,
1749, and 17o0, must necessarily have
given some check to its cultivation, while
the increase of the real price of labour
must at the same time have given a sti-
mulus to the increase of population. The
united operation of these two causes is ex-
actly calculated first to diminish and ulti-
mately to destroy a surplus of corn ; and
as, after 1764, the wealth and manufac-
turing population of Great Britain in-
creased more rapidly than those of her
neighbours,
470 Of Corn-Laws. Bk. iii,
neighbours, the returning stimulus to agri-
culture, considerable as it was, arising al-
most exclusively from a home demand, was
incapable of producing a surplus ; and not
being confined as before to British cultiva-
tion, owing to the alteration in the corn-
laws, was inadequate even to effect an inde-
pendent supply. Had the old corn-laws
remained in full force, we should still pro-
bably have lost our surplus growth, owing
to the causes above mentioned, although
from their restrictive clauses we should
certainly have been nearer the growth of
an independent supply immediately pre-
vious to the scarcity of 1800.
It is not therefore necessarj^, in order to
object to the bounty, to say with Adam
Smith that the fall in the price of com
which took place during the first half of
the last century must have happened in
spite of the bounty, and could not possibly
have happened in consequence of it. We
may allow, on the contrary, what I think
we ought to allow according to all general
principles, that the bounty, when granted
under favourable circumstances, is really
calculated.
Ch. xi. Bounties upon Exportation. 471
calculated, after going through a period of
dearness, to produce the surplus and the
cheapness which its advocates promise " ;
but according to the same general prin-
ciples we must allow that this surplus and
cheapness, from their operating at once as
a check to produce and an encouragement
to population, cannot be for any great
length of time maintained.
The objection then to a bounty on
corn, independently of the objections to
bounties in general, is, that when im-
posed under the most favourable cir-
cumstances it cannot produce permanent
cheapness : and if it be imposed under un-
favourable circumstances ; that is, if an at-
tempt be made to force exportation by an
adequate bounty at a time when the coun-
try does not fully grow its own consump-
tion ; it is obvious not only that the
• As far as the bounty might tend to force the cultiva-
tion of poorer land, so far no doubt it would have a tend-
ency to raise the price of corn ; but we know from expe-
rience that the rise of price naturally occasioned in this
•way is continually counteracted by improvements in agri-
culture. As a matter of fact it must be allowed, that,
during the period of the last century when corn was
vatioq.
very
472 Of Corn-Laws. Bk. iii.
tax necessary for the purpose must be a
very heavy one, but that the effect will
be absolutely prejudicial to the population,
and the surplus growth will be purchased
by a sacrifice very far beyond its worth.
But notwithstanding the strong objec-
tions to bounties on general grounds, and
their inapplicability in cases which are not
unfrequent, it must be acknowledged that
while they are operative ; that is, while
they produce an exportation which would
not otherwise have taken place, they un-
questionably encourage an increased growth
of corn in the countries in which they are
established, or maintain it at a point to
which it would not otherwise have attained.
Under peculiar and favourable circum-
stances a country might maintain a consi-
derable surplus growth for a great length of
time, with an inconsiderable increase of the
growing price of corn ; and perhaps httle or no
increaseof the average price, including years
of scarcity *. If from any period during
• The average price is different from the growing price.
Years of scarcity, which must occasionally occur, essen-
tially aflfect the average price ; and the growth of a sur-
plus quantity of corn, which tends to prevent scarcity,
will tend to lower this average, and make it approach
nearer to the growing price. the
Ch. xi. Bounties upon Exportation. 473
the last century, when an average excess
of growth for exportation had been ob-
tained by the stimulus of a bounty, the
foreign demand for our corn had increased
at the same rate as the domestic demand,
our surplus growth might have become
permanent. After the bounty had ceased
to stimulate to fresh exertions, its influence
would by no means be lost. For some
years it would have given the British
grower an absolute advantage over the fo-
reign grower. This advantage would of
course gradually diminish ; because it is
the nature of all effectual demand to be
ultimately supplied, and oblige the pro-
ducers to sell at the lowest price they can
afford consistently with the general rate of
profits. But, after having experienced a
period of decided encouragement, the Bri-
tish grower would find himself in the habit
of supplying a larger market than his own
upon equal terms with his competitors.
And if the foreign and British markets con-
tinued to extend themselves equally, he
would continue to proportion his supplies
to both ; because, unless a particular in-
crease
474 Of Corn-Laws, ^c, Bk. iii.
crease of demand were to take place at
home, he could never withdraw his foreign
supply without lowering the price of his
whole crop ; and the nation would thus be
in possession of a constant store for years
of scarcity.
But even supposing that by a bounty,
combined with the most favourable state of
prices in other countries, a particular state
could maintain permanently an average
excess of growth for exportation, it must
not of course be imagined that its popula-
tion would not still be checked by the dif-
ficulty of procuring subsistence. It would
indeed be less exposed to the particular
pressure arising from years of scarcity;
but in other respects it would be subject to
the same checks as those already described
in the preceding chapters; and whether
there was an habitual exportation or not,
the population would be regulated by the
real wages of labour, and would come to a
stand when the necessaries which these
wages could command were not sufficient,
under the actual habits of the people, to
encourage an increase of numbers.
CHAP.
( 475 )
CHAP. XII.
Of Corn-Lows. Restrictions upon Importation.
1 HE laws which prohibit the importatiou
of foreign grain, though by no means un-
objectionable, are not open to the same
objections as bounties, and must be allowed
to be adequate to the object they have in
view, — the maintenance of an independent
supply. A country, with landed resources,
which determines never to import corn but
when the price indicates an approach to-
wards a scarcity, will necessarily, in average
years, supply its own wants. Though we
may reasonably therefore object to restric-
tions upon the importation of foreign corn,
on the grounds of their tending to prevent
the most profitable employment of the na-
tional capital and industry, to check popu-
lation, and to discourage the export of our
manufactures; yet we cannot deny their
tendency to encourage tlie growth of corn
at
476 Of Corn-Laws, Bk. iii.
at home, and to procure and maintain an
independent supply. A bounty, it has ap-
peared, sufficient to make it answer its
purpose in forcing a surplus growth, would,
in many cases, require so very heavy a di-
rect tax, and would bear so large a propor-
tion to the whole price of the corn, as to
make it in some countries next to imprac-
ticable. Restrictions upon importation im-
pose no direct tax upon the people. On
the contrary, they might be made, if it
were thought adviseable, sources of revenue
to the government, and they can always,
without difficult}^ be put in execution, and
be made infallibly to answer their express
purpose of securing, in average years, a
sufficient growth of corn for the actual
population.
We have considered, in the preceding
chapters, the peculiar disadvantages which
attend a system either almost exclusively
agricultural or exclusively commercial,
and the peculiar advantages which attend
a system in which they are united, and flou-
rish together. It has further appeared that,
in a country with great landed resources,
the
Ch. xii. Restrictions upon Importation. 477
the commercial population may, from par-
ticular causes, so far predominate, as to
Subject it to some of the evils which belong
to a state purely commercial and manufac-
turing, and to a degree of fluctuation in the
price of corn greater than is found to take
place in such a state. It is obviously pos-
sible, by restrictions upon the importation
of foreign corn, to maintain a balance be-
tween the agricultural and commercial
classes. The question is not a question of
the efficiency or inefficiency of the measure
proposed, but of its policy or impolicy.
The object can certainly be accomplished,
but it may be purchased too dear ; and to
those who do not at once reject all inquiries
on points of this kind, as impeaching
a principle which they hold sacred, the
question, whether a balance between the
agricultural and commercial classes of so-
ciety, which would not take place naturally,
ought, under certain circumstances, to be
maintained artificially, miist appear to be
the most important pi'actical question in
the whole compass of political economy.
One of the objections to the admission of
the
478 Of Corn-Laws, Bk.
III.
the doctrine that restrictions upon importa-
tion are advantageous is, that it cannot
possibly be laid down as a general rule that
every state ought to raise its own corn.
There are some states so circumstanced
that the rule is clearly and obviously in-
apphcable to them.
In the first place there are many states
which have made some figure in history,
the territories of which have been perfectly
inconsiderable compared with their main
town or towns, and utterly incompetent to
supply the actual population with food.
In such communities, what is called the
principal internal trade of a large state,
the trade which is carried on between the
towns and the country, must necessarily be
a foreign trade, and the importation of fo-
reign corn is absolutely necessary to their
existence. They may be said to be born
without the advantage of land, and, to what-
ever risks and disadvantages a system
merely commercial and manufacturing may
be exposed, they have no power of choosing
any other. All that they can do is to make
the most of their own situation, compared
with
Ch. xii. Restrictions upon Importation. 479
with the situation of their neighbours, and
to endeavour by superior industry, skill,
and capital, to make up for so important a
deficiency. In these efforts some states of
which we have accounts have been wonder-
fully successful ; but the reverses to which
they have been subject have been almost as
conspicuous as the degree of their prosperity
compared with the scantiness of their na-
tural resources.
Secondly, restrictions upon the importa-
tion of foreign corn are evidently not ap-
plicable to a country which, from its soil
and climate, is subject to very great and
sudden variations in its home supplies,
from the variations of the seasons. A
country so circumstanced will unquestion-
ably increase its chance of a steady supply
of grain by opening as many markets for
importation and exportation as possible,
and this will probably be true, even though
other countries occasionally prohibit or tax
the exports of their grain. The peculiar
evil to which such a country is subject can
only be mitigated by encouraging the
freest possible foreign trade in com.
Thirdly,
480 Of Corn-Laws, Bk. iii.
Thirdly, restrictions upon importation
are not applicable to a country which has
a very barren territory, although it may be
of some extent. An attempt fully to cul-
tivate and improve such a territory by
forcibly directing capital to it would pro-
bably, under any circumstances, fail;
and the actual produce obtained in this
way might be purchased by sacrifices which
the capital and industry of the nation could
not possibly continue to support. Whatever
advantages those countries may enjoy,
which possess the means of supporting a
considerable population from their own
soil, such advantages are not within the
reach of a state so circumstanced. It must
either consent to be a poor and inconsider-
able community, or it must place its chief
dependence on other resources than those
of land. It resembles in many respects
those states which have a very small terri-
tory ; and its policy, with regard to the im-
portation of com, must of course be nearly
the same.
In all these cases there can be no doubt
of the impohcy of attempting to maintain
a balance
Ch. xii. Restrictions upon Importation. 481
a balance between the agricultural and
commercial classes of society which would
not take place naturally.
Under other and opposite circumstances,
however, this impolicy is by no means so
clear.
If a nation possesses a large territory
consisting of land of an average quality, it
may without difficulty support from its own
soil a population fully sufficient to main-
tain its rank in wealth and power among
the countries with which it has relations
either of commerce or of war. Territories
of a certain extent must ultimatelv in the
main support their own population. As
each exporting country approaches towards
that complement of wealth and population
to which it is naturally tending, it will
gradually withdraw the corn which for a
time it had spared to its more manu-
facturing and commercial neighbours, and
leave them to subsist on their own re-
sources. The peculiar products of each
soil and climate are objects of foreign trade,
"which can never, under an}' circumstances,
fail. But food is not a peculiar product ;
Vol. II. '2 I and
482 OfCorn-LaxLS. Bk. iii.
and the country which produces it in
the greatest abundance raay, accord-
ing to the laws which govern the pro-
gress of population, have nothing to spare
for others. An extensive foreign trade
in corn beyond what arises from the va-
riableness of the seasons in different
countries is rather a temporary and in-
cidental trade, depending cliielly upon
the different stages of improvement which
different countries may have reached, and
on other accidental circinnstances, than a
trade which is in its nature permanent,
and the stimulus to which will remain in
the progress of society unabated. In the
wildness of speculation it has been sug-
gested (of course more in jest than in
earnest), that Europe ought to grow its
corn in America, and devote itself solely to
manufactures and commerce, as the best sort
of division of the labour of the globe. But
even on the extravagant supposition that
the natural course of things might lead to
such a division of labour for a time, and
that by such means Europe could raise a
population greater than its lands could
possibly
Ch. xii. Restrictio)is upon Importation. 483
possibly support, the consequences ought
justly to be dreaded. It is an untiuestion-
able truth that it must answer to every ter-
ritorial state, in its natural progress to
wealthy to manufacture for itself, unless the
countries from which it had purchased its
manufactures possess some advantages pe-
culiar to them besides capital and skill.
But when upon this principle America be-
gan to withdraw its corn from Europe, and
the agricultural exertions of Europe were
inadequate to make up for the deficiency,
it would certainly be felt that the tempo-
rary advantages of a ureater degree of
wealth and population (supposing them to
have been really attained) had been very
dearly purchased by a long period of re-
trograde movements and misery.
If then a country be of such a size that
it may fairly be expected finally to supply
its own population with food ; if the popu-
lation which it can thus support from its
own resources in land be such as to en-
able it to maintain its rank and power
among other nations ; and furthpr, if there
be reason to fear not only the final with-
2 I 2 drawing
484 Of Corn-Laws. Bk. ii
drawing of foreign corn used for a certain
time, which might be a distant event, but
the immediate etfects that attend a great
predominance of a manufacturing popu-
lation, such as increased unheahhiness, in-
creased turbulence, increased fluctuations in
the price of corn, and increased variableness
in the wages of labour ; it may not appear
impolitic artificially to maintain a more
equal balance between the agricultural and
commercial classes by restricting the im-
portation of foreign corn, and making
agriculture keep pace with manufac-
tures.
Thirdly, if a country be possessed of
such a soil and climate, that the variations
in its annual growth of corn are less than in
most other countries, this may be an addi-
tional reason for admitting the policy of
restricting the importation of foreign corn.
Countries are very different in the degree of
variableness to which their annual supplies
are subject; and though it is unquestionably
true that if all were nearly equal in this
respect, and the trade in corn realli/ free,
the steadiness of price in a particular state
w^ould
Ch. xii. Restrictions upon Importation. 485
would increase with an increase in the
number of the nations connected witli it by
the commerce of grain ; yet it by no means
follows that the same conclusion will hold
good when the premises are essentially dif-
ferent ; that is, when some of the countries
taken into the circle of trade are subject to
very great comparative variations in their
supplies of grain, and when this defect is
aggravated by the acknowledged want of
real freedom in the foreign trade of corn.
Suppose, for instance, that the extreme
variations above and below the average
quantity of corn grown, were in England \
and in France \, a free intercourse be-
tween the two countries would probably
increase the variableness of the English
markets. And if, in addition to England
and France, such a country as Bengal
could be brought near, and admitted into
the circle — a country in which, according
to Sir George Colebrook, rice is sometimes
sold four times as cheap in one year as in
the succeeding without fiamine or scarcity * ;
» Husbandry of Bengal, p. 108. Note. He obsc rves
in the text of the same page that the price of corn fluc-
tuates much more than in Europe.
and
486 Of Corn-Laws. Bk.iii.
and where, notwithstanding the frequency
of abundant harvests, deficiencies some-
times occur of such extent as necessarily to
destroy a considerable portion of the po-
pulation ; it is quite certain that the sup-
plies both of England and France would
become very much more variable than be-
fore the accession.
In point of fact, there is reason to believe
that the British isles, owing to the nature
of their soil and climate, are peculiarly free
from great variations in their annual pro-
duce of grain. If we compare the prices
of corn in England and France from the
period of the commencement of the Eaton
tables to the beginning of the revolutionary
war, we shall find that in England the
highest price of the quarter of wheat of 8
bushels during the whole of that time was
SI. 155. 6<^i. (in 16*48), and the lowest
price 1/. 2s. Id. (in 1743), while in France
the highest price of th-e septier was 62
francs 78 centimes (in 1662), and the
lowest price 8 francs 89 centimes (in 1718)^.
'"" Garuier's Edition of the Wealth of Nations vol. ii.
Table, p. 188.
In
Ch. xii. Restrictions upon Importation. 487
In the one case the difterence is a httle
above 3^ times, and in the otlier very
nearly 7 times. In the Eng'lisii tables,
during periods of ten or twelve years, only
two instances occur of a variation amount-
ing to as much as 3 times ; in the French
tables, during periods of the same letigth,
one instance occurs of a \'ariation of above
6 times, and three instances besides of a
variation of 4 times or above.
These variations may, perhaps, have
been aggravated by a want of freedom in
the internal trade of corn, but they are
strongly confirmed by the calculations of
Turgot, which relate solely to variations of
produce, without reference to any difficul-
ties or obstructions in its free transport from
one part of the country to another.
On land of an average quality he esti-
mates the produce at seven septiers the ar-
pent in years of great abundance, and three
septiers the arpentin years of great scarcity ;
vi^hile the medium produce he values at five
septiers the arpent *. These calculations he
conceives are not far removed from the
' CEuvres de Turgot, torn. vi. p. 143. Edit. 1808.
truth ;
488 Of Corn-Laws. Bk. iii.
truth ; and proceeding on these grounds he
observes that, in a very abundant year, the
produce will be five months above its ordi-
nary consumption, and in a very scarce
year as much below. These variations are,
I should think, much greater than those
which take place in this country, at least if
we may judge from prices, particularly as
in a given degree of scarcity in the two
countries there is little doubt that, from the
superior riches of England, and the exten-
sive parish relief wliich it affords to the
poorer classes in times of dearth, its prices
would rise more above the usual average
than those of France.
If we look to the prices of wheat in Spain
during the same period, we shall find, in
like manner, much greater variations than
in England. In a table of the prices of the
fanega of wheat in the market of Seville
from 1675 to 1764 inclusive, published in
the Appendix to the Bullion Report", the
highest price is 48 reals vellon (in l677),
and the lowest price 7 reals vellon (in
1720), a difference of nearly seven times;
* Appendix, p. 182.
and
Ch. xii. Restrictions upon Importation. 489
and in periods of ten or twelve years the
difference is, in two or three instances, as
much as four times. In another table, from
1788 to 1792 inclusive, relating to the
towns of Old Castille, the highest price in
1790 was 109 reals vellon the fanega, and
in 1792 the lowest price was only 16 reals
vellon the fanega. In the market of Medi-
na del Rio Seco, a tpwn of the kingdom of
Leon, surrounded by a very fine corn
country, the price of the load of four fane-
gas of wheat was, in May, 1800, 100 reals
vellon, and in May, 1804, 600 reals vellon,
and these were both what are called low
prices, as compared with the highest prices
of the year. The difference would be
greater if the high prices were compared
with the low prices. Thus, in 1799, the
low price of the . four fanegas was 88 reals
vellon, and in 1804 the high price of the
four fanegas was 640 reals vellon, — a dif-
ference of above seven times in so short a
period as six years *.
In Spain, foreign corn is freely admit-
ted ; yet the variation of price, in the towns
* Bullion Report. Appendix, p. 185.
of
490 Of Corn-Laws. Bk. iii.
of Andalusia, a province adjoining the sea,
and penetrated by the river Guadalquiver,
though not so great as those just mentioned,
seem to shew that the coasts of the Medi-
terranean by no means furnish very steady
suppUes. It is known, indeed, that Spain
is the principal competitor of England in
the purchase of grain in the Baltic; and as
it is quite certain that what may be called
the growing or usual price of corn in Spain
is much lower than in England, it follows,
that the difference between the prices of
plentiful and scarce years must be very
considerable.
I have not the means of ascertaining the
variations in the supplies and prices of the
northern nations. They are, however, oc-
casionally great, as it is well known that
some of these countries are at times subject
to very severe scarcities. But the instances
already produced are sufficient to shew, that
a country which is advantageously circum-
stanced with regard to the steadiness of its
home supplies may rather diminish than
increase this steadine&s by uniting its inte-
rests with a country less favourably circum-
stanced
Ch. xii. Restrictions upon Importation. 491
stanccd in this respect ; and this steadiness
will unquestionably be still further dimi-
nished, if the country which is the most va-
riable in its supplies is allowed to inun-
date the other with its crops when they are
abundant, while it reserves to itself the pri-
vilege of retaining them in a period of slight
scarcity, when its commercial neighbour
happens to be in the greatest want"*.
3dly, if a nation be possessed of a terri-
tory, not only of sufficient extent to main-
tain under its actual cultivation a population
adequate to a state of the first rank, but of
sufficient unexhausted fertility to allow of a
very great increase of population, such a
circumstance would of course make the
measure of restricting the importation of
fereign corn more applicable to it.
A country which, though fertile and po-
pulous, had been cultivated nearly to the
utmost, would have no other means of in-
creasing its population than by the admis-
sion of foreign corn. But the British isles
' These two circumstances essentially change the pre-
mises on which the question of a free importation, as ap-
plicable to a particular state, must rest.
shew
492 Of Corn-Lozts. Bk. iii.
shew at present no symptoms whatever of
this species of exhaustion. The necessary
accompaniments of a territory worked to
the utmost are very low profits and extent,
a very slack demand for labour, low wages,
and a stationary population. Some of these
symptoms may indeed take place without
an exhausted territory ; but an exhausted
territory cannot take place without all these
sj'^mptoms. Instead, however, of such symp-
toms, we have seen in this country, during
the twenty years previous to 1814, a high
rate of profits and interest, a very great de-
mand for labour, good wages, and an in-
crease of population more rapid, perhaps,
than during any period of our history. The
capitals which have been laid out in bring-
ing new land into cultivation, or improving
the old, must necessarily have yielded good
returns, or, under the actual rate of general
profits, they would not have been so em-
ployed : and although it is strictly true that,
as capital accumulates upon the land, its
profits must ultimately diminish; yet owing
to the increase of agricultural skill, and
other causes noticed in a former chapter,
these
Ch. xii. Restricttons upon Importation. 493
these two effects of progressive cultivation
do not by any means always keep pace with
each other. Though they must finally unite
and terminate the career of their progress
together, they are often, during the course
of their progress, separated for a consider-
able time, and at a considerable distance.
In some countries, and some soils, the quan-
tit}^ of capital which can be absorbed before
any essential diminution ol* profits necessa-
rily takes place is so great, that its limit is
not easily calculated ; and certainly, when
we consider what has actually been done in
some districts of England and Scotland,
and compare it with what remains to be
done in other districts, we must allow that
no near approach to this limit has yet been
made. On account of the high money
price of labour, and of the materials of
agricultural capital, occasioned partly by
direct and indirect taxation, and partly, or
perhaps chiefly, by the great prosperity of
our foreign commerce, new lands cannot
be brought into cultivation, nor great im-
provements made on the old, without a high
money price of grain; but these lands,
when
494 Of Corn-Laws. Bk. iii.
when they have been so brought into cuUi-
vation or improved, have by no means
turned out unproductive. The quantity and
value of their produce have borne a full and
fair proportion to the quantity of capital
and labour employed upon them ; and they
were cultivated with great advantage both
to individuals and the state, as long as the
same, or nearly the same, relations between
the value of produce and the cost of pro-
duction, which prompted this cultivation,
continued to exist.
In such a state of the soil, the British
empire might unquestionably be able, not
only to support from its own agricultural re-
sources its present population, but double,
and in time, perhaps, even treble the number ;
and consequently a restriction upon the im-
portation of foreign corn, which might be
thought greatly objectionable in a country
which had reached nearly the end of its re-
sources, might appear in a very different
light in a, country capable of supporting
from its own lands a very great increase of
population.
But it will be said, that although a coun-
trV
Ch. xii. Restrictions upon Importation. 495
try may be allowed to be capable of main-
taining from its own soil not only a great,
but an increasing population, yet, if it be
acknowledged that, by opening its ports
for the free admission of foreign corn, it
may be made to support a greater and more
rapidly increasing population, it is unjusti-
fiable to go out of our way to check this
tendency, and to prevent that degree of
wealth and population which would natu-
rally take place.
This is unquestionably a powerful argu-
ment; and granting fully the premises,
(which however may admit of some doubt,)
it cannot be answered upon the principles of
political economy solely. I should say,
however, that if it could be clearly ascer-
tained that the addition of wealth and po-
pulation so acquired would subject the so-
ciety to a greater degree of uncertainty in
its supplies of corn, greater fluctuations in
the waoes of labour, oreater unhealthiness
and immorality owing to a larger propor-
tion of the population being employed in
manufactories, and a greater chance of long
and depressing retrograde movements occa-
sioned
490 Of Corn-Laws. Bk. iii.
sioned by the natural progress of those
countries from which corn had been im-
ported ; I should have no hesitation in con-
sidering such weakh and population as
much too dearly purchased. The happiness
of a society is, after all, the legitimate end
even of its wealth, power, and population.
It is certainly true that with a view to the
structure of society most favourable to this
happiness, and an adequate stimulus to the
production of wealth from the soil, a very
considerable admixture of commercial and
manufacturing population with the agricul-
tural is absolutely necessary; but there is
no argument so frequently and obviously
fallacious as that which infers that what is
good to a certain extent is good to any ex-
tent; and though it will be most readily ad-
mitted that, in a large landed nation, the
evils which belong to the manufacturing
and commercial system are much more than
counterbalanced by its advantages, as long
as it is supported by agriculture; yet, in
reference to the effect of the excess which
is not so supported, it may fairly be doubted
whether the evils do not decidedly predo-
minate.
Ch. xii. Restrictions upon Importation. 497
It is observed by Adam Smith, that the
" capital which is acquired to any country
b}' conmicrce and manufactures is all a very
uncertain and precarious possession,till some
part of it has been secured and realized in the
cultivation and improvement of its lands ".
It is remarked in another place, that the
monopoly of the colony trade, by raising
the rate of mercantile profit, discourages
the improvement of the soil, and retards the
natural increase of that great original source
of revenue — the rent of land ^.
Now it is certain that, at no period, have
the manufactures, conmiercc and colony
trade of the country been in a state to absorb
so much capital as during the twenty years
ending with 1814. From the year 1764 to
the peace of Amiens, it is generally allowed
that the conmierce and manufactures of the
country increased faster than its agriculture,
and that it became gradually more and
more dependent on foreign corn for its sup-
port. Since the peace of Amiens the state
of ils colonial monopoly and of its manu-
» Vol. ii. b. iii. c.4. p. 137-
^ Id. b.iv. c. 8. p. 495.
VOL. II. 2 K factures
Of Corn-Laws, and Bk. Mi.
factures has been such as to demand an
unusual quantity of capital ; and if the pe-
culiar circumstances of the subsequent war,
the high freights and insurance, and the de-
crees of Buonaparte, had not rendered the
importation of foreign corn extremely diffi-
cult and expensive, we should at this mo-
ment, according to all general principles,
have been in the habit of supporting a much
larger portion of our population upon it,
than at any former period of our history.
The cultivation of the country would be in
a very different state from what it is at pre-
sent. Very few or none of those great im-
provements would have taken place which
may be said to have purchased fresh land
for the state that no fall of price can de-
stroy. And the peace, or accidents of dif-
ferent kinds, might have curtailed essen-
tially both our colonial and manufacturing
advantages, and destroyed or driven away
our capital before it had spread itself on the
soil, and become national property.
As it is, the practical restrictions thrown
in the way of importing foreign corn during
the war have forced our steam-engines and
our
Ch. xii. Restrictions upon Lnportatioi . 499
our colonial monopoly to cultivate our
lands ; and those very causes which, ac-
cording to Adam Smith, tend to draw ca-
pitid from agriculture, and would certainly
have so drawn it if we could havecontiiuied
to purchase foreign corn at the market prices
of France and Holland, have been the means
of giving such a spur to our agriculture, that
it has not only kept pace with a very rapid
increase of commerce and manufactures,
but has recovered the distance at which it
had for many years been left behind, and
now marches with them abreast.
But restrictions upon the importation of
foreign corn in a country which has great
landed resources, not only tend to spread
every commercial and manufacturing ad-
vantage possessed, w^hether permanent or
temporary, on the soil, and thus, in the lan-
guage of Adam Smith, secure and realize
it; but also tend to prevent those great
oscillations in the progress of agriculture
and commerce, which are seldom unat-
tended with evil.
It is to be recollected, and it is a point of
great impoitance to keep constantly in our
2 K 2 minds,
500 Of Corn-Laws^ and Bk. iii.
minds, that the distress which has been
experienced among almost all classes of
society from the sudden fall of prices, ex-
cept as far as it has been aggravated by the
state of the currency, has been occasioned
by natural^ not artificial^ causes.
There is a tendency to an alternation in the
rate of the progress of agriculture and ma-
nufactures in the same manner as there is a
tendency to an alternation in the rate of the
progress of food and population. In pe-
riods of peace and uninterrupted trade,
these alternations, though not favourable
to the happiness and quiet of society, may
take place without producing material evil ;
but the intervention of war is alwaj- s liable
to give them a force and rapidity that must
unavoidably produce a convulsion in the
state of property.
The war that succeeded to the peace of
Amiens found us dependent upon foreign
countries for a very considerable portion of
our supplies of corn ; and we now grow
our own consumption, notmthstanding an
unusual increase of population in the in-
terval. This great and sudden change in
the
\
Ch. xii. Restrictions upon Importation. 501
the state of our agriculture could only liavc
been effected by very high prices occa-
sioned by an inadequate home supply and
the great expense and difficulty of import-
ing foreign corn. But the rapidity with
which this change has been effected must
necessarily create a glut in the market as
soon as the home growth of corn became
fully equal or a little in excess above the
home consumption ; and, aided only by a
small foreign importation,must inevitablyoc-
casion a very sudden fall of prices. If the
ports had continued open for the free import-
ation of foreign corn, there can be little doubt
that the price of corn in 1815 would have been
still considerably lower. This low price of
corn, even if by means of lowered rents our
present state of cultivation could be in a great
degree preserved, must give such a check
to future improvement, that if the ports
were to continue open, we should certainly
not grow a sufficiency at home to keep
pace with our increasing population ; and
at the end of ten or twelve years we might
be found by a new war in the same state
that we were at the commencement of the
present.
502 Of Corn- Laws, and Bk. iii.
present. We should then have the same
career of high prices to pass thi'ough,
the same excessive stin^.ulus to agriculture ^
followed by the same sudden and depres-
sing check to it, and the same enormous
loans borrowed with the price of wheat at
90 or 100 shillings a quarter, and the mo-
nied incomes of the landholders and in-
dustrious classes of society nearly in pro-
portion, to be paid when wheat is at 50 or
60 shillings a quarter, and the incomes of
the landlords and industrious classes of
society greatly reduced — a state of things
which cannot take place without an ex-
cessive aggravation of the difficulty of
paying taxes, and particularly that inva-
riable monied amount which pays the in-
terest of the national debt.
On the other hand a country which so
restricts the importations of foreign com as
on an average to grow its own supplies,
' According to the evidence before the House of
Lords (Reports, p. 49), the freight and insurance alone
on a quarter of corn were greater by 48 shillings in 1811
than in 1814. Without any artificial interference then, it
appears that war alone may occasion unavoidably a pro-
digious increase of price.
and
Ch xii. Restrictions upon Importation. 603
and to import merely in periods of scarcity,
is not only certain of spreading every in-
vention in manufactures and every peculiar
advantage it may possess from its colonies
or general commerce on the land, and
thus of fixing them to the spot and rescuing
them from accidents ; but is necessarily
exempt from those violent and distressing
convulsions of property which almost un-
avoidably arise from the coincidence of a
general war and an insuflficient home
supply of corn.
If the late war had found us independent
of foreigners for our average consumption,
not even our paper currency could have
made the prices of our corn approach to the
prices which were at one time experienced*.
And if we had continued, during the
course of the contest, independent of fo-
reign supplies, except in an occasional
scarcity, it is impossible that the growth of
" It will be found upon examination, that the prices of
our com led the way to the excess and diminution of our
paper currency, rather than followed, although the prices
of corn coidd never have been either so high or so low if
this excess and diminution had not taken place.
our
504 Of Corn- Laws, and Ek. iii.
our own consumption, or a little above it,
should have produced at the end of the
war so universal a feeling of distress.
The chief practical objection lo which re-
strictions on the importation of corn are ex-
posed is a glut from an abundant harvest,
w^hich cannot be relieved by exportation.
And in the consideration of that part of the
question which relates to the fluctuations of
prices this objection ought to have its full
and fair weight. But the fluctuation of
prices arising from this cause has sometimes
been very greatly exaggerated. A glut
which might essentially distress the farmers
of a poor country, might be comparatively-
little felt by the farmers of a rich one ; and
it is difficult to conceive that a nation with
an ample capital, and not under the in-
fluence of a great shock to commercial con-
fidence, as this country was in 1815, would
find much difl^culty in reserving the surplus
of one year to supply the wants of the next
or some future year. It may fairly indeed
be doubted whether, in such a country as
our own, the fall of price arising from this
cause would be so great as that which
would
Gh. xii. Restrictions upon Importation. 505
would be occasioned by the sudden jjour-
ing in of the supphes from an abundant
crop in Europe, particularly from those
states which do not regularly exjiort corn.
If our ports were always open, the existing
laws of France would still prevent such a
supply as would equalize prices; and
French corn would only come in to us in
considerable quantities in years of great
abundance, when we were the least likely
to want it, and when it was most likely to
occasion a glut*.
But if the fall of price occasioned in
these two ways would not be essentially,
different, as it is quite certain that the rise
of price in years of general scarcity would
be less in those countries which habitually
grow their own supplies; it must be al-
lowed that the range of variation will be
the least under such a system of restric-
tions as, without preventing importation
* Almost all the corn merchants who gave their evi-
dence before the committees of the two houses in 1814
seemed fully aware of the low prices likely to be occa-
sioned by an abundant crop in Europe, if our ports were
open to receive it.
VOL II. 2 L when
506 Of Corn-Laxvs^ and Bk. iii.
when prices are high, will secure in ordinary
years a growth equal to the consumption.
One objection however to systems of
restriction must always remain. They are
essentially unsocial. I certainly think that,
in reference to the interests of a particular
state, a restriction upon the importation of
foreign corn ma>^ sometimes be advan-
tageous ; but I feel still more certain that
in reference to the interests of Europe in
general the most perfect freedom of trade
in corn, as well as in every other commo-
dity, would be the most advantageous.
Such a perfect freedom, however, could
hardly fail to be followed by a more free
and equal distribution of capital, which,
though it would greatly advance the riches
and happiness of Europe, would unques-
tionably render some parts of it poorer and
less populous than they are at present;
and there is little reason to expect that in-
dividual states will ever consent to sacrifice
the wealth within their own confines to the
wealth of the world.
^ It is further to be observed, that inde-
pendently of more direct regulations, tax-
ation
Ch. xii. Res tr^ict ions upoti Importation. 507
ation alone produces a system of discou-
ragements and encouragements which es-
sentially interferes ^vith the natural relations
of commodities to each other ; and as there
is no hope of abolishing taxation, it may
sometimes be only by a further interference
that these natural relations can be restored.
A perfect freedom of trade therefore is a
vision which it is to be feared can never be
realized. But still it should be our object
to make as near approaches to it as we
can. It should always be considered as
the great general rule. And when any de-
viations from it are proposed, those who
propose them are bound clearly to make
out the exception.
END OP VOL. II.
tondoD : Printed by W. CLOWES, Northumberland-court, Strand.
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