Foreign agriculture circular. Cocoa. FCB

Historic, archived document

Do not assume content reflects current
scientific knowledge, policies, or practices.

CT) Av) FlE
4Y& US. Department of Agriculture - Foreign Agricultural Service - Washington, D.C.

Soricuhure
circular

Cocoa

FCB 2-84
October 1984 —
~ BUMPER WORLD COCOA BEAN CROP FORECAST FOR 1984/85 } 353
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SUMMARY Lore SOF,
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World cocoa bean production for the 1984/85 October-September crop-year i
forecast at 1.74 million tons, 14 percent greater than the. drouglit-damaged; 1
1983/84 outturn and slightly above the record 1981/82 harvest. The larger<S%
harvest is attributed to a recovery in West African production, following 2 “‘“*
consecutive years of unusually dry weather. Rainfall during the development

stages of the 1984/85 West African crop has been quite adequate and the
overall condition of the trees has greatly improved as soil moisture levels

have been nearly replenished. Also contributing to the larger harvest are
expectations of a recovery in Brazilian production as well as a substantial

boost in Malaysian output, reflecting new areas coming into bearing.

World cocoa bean grindings in calendar 1984 are estimated at a record 1.67
million tons, compared with 1.65 million tons a year earlier. Grindings in
1985 are forecast to closely approximate those of 1984. If production and
grind estimates are realized, world stocks will increase by 58,000 tons in
1985, following 2 straight years of inventory reductions. Based on the
current rate of consumption, world carryover’ stocks of cocoa beans at the
close of the 1983/84 season were estimated at about a 3-month supply, down
from a 4-month supply, as of September 30, 1983.

Cocoa bean prices (the average of the daily closing price of the nearest 3
active futures trading months on the New York market) have averaged $2,398 per
ton during the January-September 1984 period, up from $2,030 during calendar
1983 and well above the 1982 average of $1,640 per ton. Cocoa prices were
high during the early months of 1984 in response to a tight supply situation,
but have since declined as the new crop season approached.

The 1980 International Cocoa Agreement (ICCA) was extended for a l-year period
because members were unable to successfully conclude negotiations for a new
ICCA. Thus, the 2 cents per pound levy and the intervention price range of
$1.06-$1.46 per pound will remain in effect until September 30, 1985. A
Negotiating Conference was held in Geneva, October 8-26, 1984, in continuing
efforts to develop a new ICCA.

Note: All tons are metric (2,204.6 lbs).

COCOA BEANS: PRODUCTION IN SPECIFIED COUNTRIES, 1979/80-1984/85 1/
1,000 metric tons) =

g 2 : 2 : : Forecast
Region and country : 1979/80 : 1980/81 : 1981/82 : 1982/83 : 1983/84 : 1984/85
North America: :
COSEAMRAU Cas eielaterercieiclereisieteleteterore eieic Wo 5.0 5.4 20 220 3.0
Cubarjejereieiete sfolelatatoleteiaieraveleloletereierels 1.0 1.0 Ls© 1.0 1.0 1.0
Domind can Republics sree ielolelste eres 29.0 33.0 42.7 43.3 41.5 43.5
Grenada....... pfeietetareioteiioletaicieiatetsts 1.8 3.0 1.6 7S) 2.0 2.0
Guatemal as cisisicter tere isve)erelels save aveiers : eS) 2.0 1.8 weS aS 15
Flaiiitetitrerercjeteretetolersieleiereverevereysioleteteterirs 2.8 Ds) Ze 3.0 25 Za
Honduras sis crete icietetcleieicielsicraie ciate ooo 35 <5 <5 a5 5 a5
JAMAICA. nyc: jeis iol stsforssveleysieyaisisisisis as 1.4 1.8 1.4 2.8 D5 225
MEX: CO sravererelelerercloterstevereraicieteleretcrcicrehs 36.0 5250 42.0 43.0 38.0 40.0
Nicaragua....... soa0000C So0eb00 S 572 aye. 5? 52 az. 5
PanaMmaly..cjeieve s/eleie eave spaveerelersternajerats 1.0 .8 .8 .8 0 1.0
Trinidad and Tobago............: 2.1 2.9 Be Tf 3.0 50) 3.0
QAM Bossooosc000000000000500 : 52 ae, 52 52 5? aye.
MOCallle arverereveiereiavere eicloisioteisisteteteions 85.8 84.9 102.8 103.7 95.9 100.9
South America:
BOs vellamreteverelovetetelevaletereieteiaterersistetetels 3.0 3.0 550 Bo5 De'S Z25
BrazZailereetclereterctelelereterersielotersioteversorets 296.0 351.0 315.0 339.0 300.0 360.0
Collombilaercicicctectetactetoersieicielsisresiens S5e5 36.0 38.5 39.8 40.5 41.5
ECUad OD Se icis ciose cs eiore erie ereleereio eevee 95.0 85.0 87.5 55.0 50.0 60.0
PO TUs grove ciaiays\eisisrelers eiersisvelsis savereieien 8.0 9.0 9.5 10.0 8.0 10.0
SUN AMC EH atetevaraletelelelslotelelekersistatetaiersis 51 al ail jul sll 51
WeneZuelliae a cyersvcteieverclersicieveleieieioterste rs Ze S 14,3 14.8 14.8 14.0 15.0
TOGA s aicvets sisiorsvate o:0 cielo ecelseisiccsie's 448.1 498.4 468.4 461.2 415.1 489.1
Africa
INTO 56 S50 onOGDODDKD000R00000 8 2 2 ~2 «2 52 57
CAMETOONE: <fevaicic:svetersre's cieielovereveveisters W 23507, 119.5 120.1 106.0 108.0 115.0
ComOTowls lands yryeveicterereiers eters lersieys 1 Sal onl sil sil ait
GONG Odie iss eletasieis leis © eis's clels slstexs as DoT] 2.0 BSS) 1.4 2.0 AO
Equatonials Guineas -1i-ile'eelelelereiis 6.0 8.0 8.0 9.0 9.0 10.0
Gabon...... sialetetatetsleleretareretsisieccialat : 55 2.9 2.9 25 a5 2S
Ghaniabrareyerereretayevercletoieoieierevoteloretovelete : 296.0 258.0 225.0 178.0 158.0 185.0
Ivory: Goast, S/iesjssllereieleicts cies ei es 7940 412.0 456.0 360.4 415.0 450.0
Liberia..... ere tatieye Bie ore este ewes Baz 5.0 555 SEZ 5.0 5.0
Madagascatyeremiclsiteeteielelecisictcicietstotens 1.8 At 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
Niwas AY/ssoscueccoscssa90c000s = WED 155.0 182.0 156.0 2550 160.0
Sao Tome and Principe..........: Del 6.5 Dol 4.7 5.0 6.0
Simca WevesooansnocopaToooode & 10.5 9.2 9.5 9.2 9.0 O85
ANZA aap tepeteverare atayereterelelcialereverersysnc 50 1.0 Hey: bss) RS, 1.0
TOS On Sica spec Sais o sinielelsle ie steveretois S 1558 16.0 10.9 9.8 S50 S10
Wanda’, 2c cicye stersioversis isis os isiere eiovsts : Sil Sal all all oA mel
ZAUTOS atatatara-c lov siark arelaleievetsiccicrecetelovens 555 72 S57 4.4 4.7 4.0 4.5
TO Gall yaysie eis ralereietole:ctoreietess’ereveversiele 1,029.0 1,003.0 1-OS5e 1 850.4 861.0 967.7
Asia and Oceania:
leg Msi Wee. ooocnaccg000de0adcs aye: ae 22 5 72 52 32
MiriGil ae reretateveretoletelercisiclatetstatetatate BODE 1,5 2.0 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.0
IndoneSitiaactan acces cance ccc noe: 10.3 13.1 15.0 15.0 16.0 18.0
Maillays Parvericteyeleterelclaletereletersiciorcielo ic 35.4 49.1 61.0 69.0 91.0 120.0
Papua New Guinea...............: 30.0 27.0 2955 28.0 30.0 30.0
PHIMe pPpPINES aereleveretersistelstotelevelererelers = Bt! 4.2 5a 4.5 555 Sa0
Solomon! Istlandsey.tecieieieiciels = c1erers 4 4) ae By/ Ew? af
Srilglankalrecctletecleteiettetaslotetets terials 1S 155 5 1S 1S 15
WANUAIELT eyoraeveteteteialeterelors cle loreteretaicrsrens AG SH od iil .9 .9
WEStELM Samoa’ «crewsiais sievelsiersielaisvers = ile 1.0 6 ih. 7/ 1-0 eS
TOG ALS cyeieratetslsiaversteleteiefots’e s/s siete ekt 84.5 99.1 118.3 126.2 151.8 182.8
Grand@totaillerrarereieveteicievicisrcrortelclerre S ihKGe7n! 1,685.4 1,724.6 1,541.5 1,523.8 1,740.5
17 Estimates refer to an October-September crop year. 2/7 Includes Dominica, St. Lucia, Guadeloupe, and

Martinique. 3/ Includes some cocoa marketed from Ghana. 4/ Includes cocoa marketed through Benin and
Cameroon. a“ i

Foreign Agricultural Service. Prepared or estimated on the basis of official statistics of foreign
governments, other foreign source material, reports of Agricultural Attaches and Foreign Service
Officers, results of office research and related information.

October 1984 Foreign Production Estimates Division, FAS/USDA

WORLD COCOA BEAN SUPPLY-DEMAND AND APPARENT STOCK CHANGE, 1949/50-1984/85

: Production 1/ : : :New York spot
Oct.-Sept. : Grind 2/_ : Apparent § : Accra cocoa
season Gross : Net : stock change :bean prices 3/

poco ccs eee eeen-------- 1,000 metric tons---------------- cents/1b
T9AS SOWA. «cre ons 768 760 789 -29 29.0
TOSO/SUES Pee a0 806 798 756 +42 30e77.
HOSS 2h cote Acree 647 641 726 -85 S592
POS 27S Sace cet 809 801 809 -8 SA ae
1953/54 stake 2 786 778 744 +34 5655
SSA S Serres 786 778 731 +47 41.4
LSS /SOse GaaGe ee : 836 828 837 -9 28.8
195SC/SWerecee ee 898 889 919 -30 DT ae.
LOST Sone ee ; 761 753 858 -105 43.5
VOSS/SOM is cre veers 899 890 874 +16 38.0
1959/6082 2 nee e 1,043 1055 931 +102 29.9
1960/69. eon... ¢ 1,164 1 TSZ 1,026 +126 25D
1961/62 ee : 125 A 1,120 -6 21.9
1962/6508 Ot: I altG2 1,150 1,154 -4 23.9
NOGS/G4e acc cele : 1,239 L227, 1,194 +33 LARA
V9G4/O5)..4.cescrcaeoe 1,491 1,476 1,340 +136 18.4
1965/6628. -2eRee : 220 1,208 1,388 -180 25 ol
1966/67. 22668.<:<ere 1-356 NG eVAS) 1,386 -63 LTS
1967 /G8 sake. <a ie S52 ie 358 1,410 -72 30.9
1968/69 5 shece% oe 12:56 1,224 W353 -129 AS al
1969/70 er. c's 308 hsA25 1,409 S55 +54 aieS
1.9710) 7a ates 1,493 1,478 1,438 +40 29.2
UST geaoee wae 1) S72 1,556 1,567 =n 29.0
LG72 pliSectacmins. ccc: 1,406 15, 992 RSS -159 5 5ErS
UTS Tavs spencers 1,458 1,443 1,489 -46 91.2
OTA er erties 542 WA S47/ ibaa 7/1 +56 82.7
1975/76stie cas sere ysis 1,496 1,536 -40 92.0
OUR BAC E Re = 1555 1,341 1595 -52 189.8
OTT See SIONS We oe2 1,497 SAY +80 AYA ea
119797 7 Oo eee 1,500 1,485 1,472 +13 mee aSales
1979/80. cc te cee : 1,647 ost esol! +120 E2545
1980/ Siete ess oes 1,685 1,668 1,596 +72 90.6
19817) 82a ees 1725 1,708 1,608 +100 80.2
1992/8530 . eee 1,542 1527 1,653 -126 84,2
1985/84 Saat 1,524 1,509 1,667 -158 106.6
1984/85 forecast: 1,740 e725 1,665 +58 ---

e

ay) FAS data. An adjustment of 1 percent for loss in weight is made to arrive at a
net production figure. 2/ Gill § Duffus data. Calendar year grind, refers to last
year of crop year. FAS data for last 2 years. 3/ Average for October-September

year. 4/ Beginning October 1977, all price data refer to the average of the daily
closing price of the nearest 3 active futures trading months on the New York market.

Foreign Agricultural Service. Prepared or estimated on the basis of official
statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source material, reports of
Agricultural Attaches and Foreign Service Officers, results of office research and
related information.

October 1984 Horticultural and Tropical Products Division, FAS/USDA

MAJOR PRODUCERS

Ivory Coast production for 1984/85 is forecast at a near-record 450,000 tons,
reflecting improved weather conditions and young trees increasing in

productivity. Although the drought -damaged 1983/84 crop was placed at between
400,000 to 415,000 tons, it was well above the poor 1982/83 harvest, which was
adversely affected by severe drought and brush fires. Bean sizes of the
1983/84 main crop were small, averaging between 120-150/100 grams, compared
with a normal count of 100/100 grams. With the return of more normal
rainfall, the 1984 mid crop and early pickings of the 1984/85 main crop
indicate good bean size and improved overall quality of the crop moving to
market.

The government has increased the producer price for the 1984/85 season to 375
CFAF per kilogram from 350 CFAF paid during the 1983/84 crop year (464
CFAF=U.S. $1 as of September). The higher price should encourage farmers to
better maintain their farms. However, the quality of Ivory Coast cocoa still
is below that of Ghana, despite ongoing efforts by the government to educate
growers in proper fermentation and drying techniques. Although nearly 6,200
hectares of new plantings were made in 1983, the government is placing
emphasis on raising the productivity of existing trees rather than making
widescale new plantings to increase output. Currently, efforts are underway
to establish new plantings at Buyo and Soubre in the southwest.

Exports of cocoa beans in 1983 totaled 286,385 tons, of which the Netherlands
took 104,283 tons, the United States 70,930, the U.S.S.R. 28,893, France
25,919, and West Germany 20,531 tons. Cocoa butter exports were 14,444 tons,
cocoa paste 36,270, cocoa powder 1,250, and chocolate 6,242 tons. France and
the United States were the major recipients of the cocoa products exports.
Exports of cocoa beans and products have accounted for slightly over one
quarter of the foreign exchange earnings of the Ivory Coast in recent years.

Ghana's production is forecast at 185,000 tons, 17 percent greater than the
poor 1983/84 outturn, reflecting favorable growing conditions this season.
The plentiful supply of food crops and increased producer prices mean that
farmers are likely to devote more attention to cocoa.

Ghana and the German Democratic Republic recently signed a bilateral trade
agreement by which Ghana will supply 10,000 tons of cocoa and 7,000 tons of
copra in exchange for chemicals, tires, machinery, and technology and
assistance in road construction and housing projects in the cocoa areas. Some
other positive actions taken by the government include a series of currency
devaluations, expanded efforts to deliver inputs and consumer good to growers,

and the acceleration of payments to farmers through the check payment scheme.
The rehabilitation of an estimated 100,000 hectares of cocoa destroyed by

COCOA BEANS: EXPORTS BY SPECIFIED COUNTRIES, 1978-1983
(Metric tons)

Continent and country : 1978 g 1979 : 1980 : 1981 : 1982 oe l983ei/
Africa :
Ramilis oogg00G00d0G00000000000008 1,852 4,330 5,082 2/ 500 2/ 800 2/ 3,600
(CHIEN Gg00dd00000000000000 568 61,613 61,062 80,508 82,378 66,407 ~ 80,052
(Coyne) USIENUISS G6G0000000000000 : 8 15 8 2 AE NS 2/ 10
(CONUS GoGo0000000C 600000 odoccdes 2,560 2,643 1,982 2,193 2,457 A. 2alal
Equatorial Guinea........... wees 5,000 5,000 6,000 7,500 7,500 8,000
CEI 5 pad GADD g0000000000 acoue 3,749 3,582 3,660 3,165 2525 2,005
Ghamaleyetereveteteleletcterereleleloreieterereieicieleie mmm c Oneal 199,961 218,560 180, 885 217,102 177,335
Ivory? (Coasticrcilsls scree cai Siaclowicee nn) e244 401A 170,843 305,284 437,169 326,306 286,385
Liberia..... 5000000000000 ayeeyetess 4,043 3,446 3,709 6,728 4,370 5,740
Madagascar....sseeeee arelsteietoretare one 1,208 1,834 1,530 2/ 1,600 1,388 Ze S15
NG Persia rtevercvorcterssinicloteleleretalclers)foten me LOD GOO LMS 032 133,861 ~ 108,960 136,656 152,304
Sao Tome & Principe......... wait 5,954 8,643 6,998 6,000 5,989 317
Sila MLECONE sreleieletel slelelalelelereelelerere 3 Sh AO) 9,639 8,633 9,027 2/ 8,500 2/ 9,000
Tanzaniave sn seein esas a2 000 1,074 1,120 1,134 wa 144 ie he 32
UCEXOG00000 SHODODDODOOOOO0G0 0000 : 22,784 10,098 14,507 17,205 10,113 9,482
Wo andalsrjererererclaloiveletole go000000 50008 262 2/ 200 2/ 200 210 110 80
ZAUTE ehotevereverereteleKelereverecreelenckereVolarciens 4,305 3,500 4,177 4,478 4,137 4,373
Ho Callleverelotevereterehsherotelercvelerenererevevele O15 69 598,902 795,819 869,134 795,519 746,341
Ee
Latin America: :
BTAZlellerstetavetoleleverevenctevelevelotersieteterciereyici me ml Oss ONE 156,932 123,580 125,246 143, 462 152,773
CositapRiiGalrrrerciererorciercie jdlda00dd0 S 5,826 4,235 2,165 2,018 1,852 2/ 700
Dorion dango bo opoccedcoudsac : 34 30 2/ 30 30 2/ 30 92/50
Dominican Republic........eeeee: 27,638 25,605 23,418 27,261 38,245 38,347
EGUAd OLpeiererereletetolevelstehorelelerclotetolereverens 16,247 13,238 14,104 24,114 38,025 7,019
Grenada....... so00dad0000000 500 2,718 2,448 1,866 2,605 2,075 2,440
Guiad elllouperivstesicrersteleleiienieisvciecclerets 12 7 1 OOS 25 25
Guatemalllaticre <rciere steel sleicielelorcvele ele Be 3,057 1,636 1,098 ~ 366 ~500 ~ 890
nEWe SWoaaacoagovoooNHGdo0Un0N » Daeyy) 1,797 1,454 1,592 1,022 835
Honduras........ noood0g00G00000 : 374 414 477 2/525 2/ 500 420
JAMANC Alevepatelokeclelevercveleleloe/sieleletelsierets 1,243 19359 S25 1,564 L260 1,999
MEXalCO erate lavetetetelelclareietereverchetelereietarctens 3,640 2,064 2,120 Ly 3,044 11,538
NCAT agUaleteiereleyeleletelslelelevelevejereycrcheteits 127 32 2 36 2/ 25 DY 25
lENENIFG 66.000 00g000000000OD0000008 1,025 S275, 837 48 2/ 50 Fass
PE EU sstore)s cretatatsisvei ot ste’ s is: fatilse He 2,178 1,496 828 664 27 700 530
So WME 6 pu6b0006000000006 5046 93 98 68 40 BZ/6 110 45
St. Vincent...... a00000000 60000 8 28 20 20 2/ 20 2/ 10 2/0
Lrinidad and! Tobagoec.ccec cee: 3,228 2,672 2,149 3,010 2,435 1,986
Wene zie atysreeystereieleieclelevcievers clclclcrelis 6,410 6,800 Tif O2 7,983 9,457 9,549
UOC o cbod050g00000000000G000 8 AO, e7/4) 222,150 183,304 197,144 242,707 229,194
Asia and Oceania: :
IndonesilalrereieysvereieietelerelensieveeVetevelevens 2,249 3,645 4,680 6,814 11,395 12,720
Malaysia..... 5000060000000 90000 8 eR SHAle 24,239 30,640 42,425 57,701 57,198
Papua New Guinea.......eeeeeeee: 27,129 28,084 28,792 27,842 28,223 26,342
SH le ankalereererefeleletersielerele ao0000008 1,040 600 916 902 698 807
NEMUENSTIOG GongoG0G00 aon000gD00008 1,096 554 722 944 542 e235
WeStern SamOals crereicieleleisiers cle 'sscle 508 1,197 NAS27/ 1,209 902 746 SS
UO Go o50066 50060000000000008 50,282 58,649 66,959 79,829 99,305 100,035
Grand@lotailleryerercycrevelelereletelerieistevelelave : 1,021,925 879,701 1,046,082 1,146,107 ele o oi: 1,075,570
1/7 Preliminary. 2/7 Estimated. 37 Data based on U.S. imports.

Foreign Agricultural Service. Prepared or estimated on the basis of official statistics of foreign governments,
other foreign source material, reports of Agricultural Attaches and Foreign Service Officers, results of office
research and related information.

October 1984 Horticultural and Tropical Products Division, FAS/USDA

brush fires has been hampered by a shortage of high-yielding seedlings.

Farmers have made limited new plantings, but are tending to rely on the
traditional ''Tetteh Quarshie" variety, which has low yields and takes up to 7
years to come into bearing.

However, Ghana's overall outlook for the cocoa sector continues to be
unfavorable and production in future years will likely continue to trend
downward, or remain near the low levels of recent years. The cultivation of
food crops continues to be a profitable endeavor for cocoa farmers and the
declining productivity of the older trees is contributing to smaller harvests
as new plantings are not of significance. In addition, the continued extreme
shortage of petroleum, together with poor roads, is resulting in serious
problems in moving the crop to port for export.

Nigerian production is expected to recover from the poor 1983/84 harvest as
growing conditions have been excellent. Reportedly, substantial quantities of
cocoa were smuggled into neighboring countries during the 1983/84 season,
which contributed to the unusually low crop purchase returns by the Marketing
Board. Like in Ghana, the future for cocoa is not promising. Farmers
continue to migrate to urban areas in search of higher paying jobs and others
are neglecting cocoa in favor of food crops. In addition to several years of
unfavorable weather, shortages of spray chemicals, and increased labor costs
have also contributed to the decline in cocoa production.

The new cocoa processing plant at Ile-Oluji in Ondo State began commercial
operations on May 31, 1984. The new facility has an annual capacity of 30,000
tons and reportedly processed 5,000 tons of cocoa beans during the
June-September period.

No announcement has been made regarding producer prices for the 1984/85
season. Producers received 1,400 naira per ton for grade 1 and 1,370 naira
per ton for grade 2 cocoa for the 1983/84 harvest (0.7657 naira=U.S. $1).

Cameroon has also experienced favorable growing conditions and production is
expected to recover to more normal levels. The government has increased the
producer price to 410 CFAF per kilogram for grades 1 and 2 and to 250 CFAF for
below grade cocoa. Prices during the 1983/84 season were 370 CFAF and 130
CFAF per kilogram, respectively. In addition to the price boost, farmers will
be given an additional 30 CFAF per kilogram for grades 1 and 2 once the cocoa
has been sold to overseas markets.

Brazilian production is forecast at a record 360,000 tons, 20 percent greater
than the 1983/84 outturn. Weather conditions during the early stages of the
Bahia main crop were exceptionally good, but turned less favorable as harvest
time approached. The main crop is now expected to yield 2.8 million bags (60
kilograms each)(168,000 tons), compared with earlier expectations of 3.0 to
3.2 million bags (180,000 to 192,000 tons). The 1984 Bahia temporao crop was
adversely affected by hot dry weather during flowering and by excessive
moisture and cool temperatures later in the season, which resulted in poor
quality and low yields.

Cocoa production in other states continues to expand and is currently
estimated at 34,000 tons. New plantings are continuing in these areas and a
special program is now underway near Altamira and Itaituba in the State of
Para. Here, 3,000 hectares of new plantings are to be made in 1984/85 in
addition to the 15,000 hectares already in place. However, the government's
PROCACAU production expansion program remains suspended in view of the
country's difficult financial situation.

STATE OF BAHIA COCOA BEAN PRODUCTION
(60-kilogram bags)

Crop years l/50% Main crop 2/ : Temporao crop 3/ : Total
VOSS AS ON. oct0 cele ue 1,480,000 1. S15, 000 2,795,000
OS S/GOS ceuck s ctacrocton: 1,664,336 1,200,000 2,864,336
VOGOLONS coer. Sees a: ~ 950,000 1,006, 865 1,956, 865
M961 AGZS< a cartels oxcekers 15470,273 557,142 202 F405
1067/6505. ee 905,612 843,979 1,749,591
NOG SGA rare isis ese eer: 905,440 1,039,268 1,944,708
NO64,/6S 4 otrsveys « roenetas 926,251 948,684 16745955
1965/66. -aeiccs ee 1,553,412 1,195,085 2,748,497
TOGO/OTR acces. eevee 1,490,974 1,297,545 2,788,519
TOG TOS Ase ce Semier ons 1,364,658 896,393 2 ZOOS
1960) 60s yee eee 871,415 1,749,132 2,620,547
1969/7085. emcee 1,528,762 1,681,571 3,210, 333
197 O/a/les xs lorcier. ate Seve SS 945,378 1,944,354 2,889. do2
IK Aly ide Pe ee ee ereaus ol ONO79 1,095,051 25005),.750
19727 SA nae canta 1,790,589 704,539 2,495,128
1O7S/TAe et ede 2,376,457 1,514,763 3,891,220
NOMI. seebe ee 1,613,452 2,630,474 4,243,926
LOTS ZO ircrcner tyes axtvore : 1,899,331 2,090,687 3,990,018
ISOM oie te 1,496,736 2,102,374 3,599,110
VO7 WAS agit mick arose 1,886,824 2,524,080 4,410,904
1078/9 eae oe et 1,805, 337 3,129,283 4,934,620
NYAS UNS, aE 2,257,499 2,382,926 4,640,425
TOSO/(Sleee eee ee . 2,658,422 2,891, 604 5,550,026
LOGI/.82. 598 cree eee 1,717,692 3,169, 840 4,887,532
1982/8545... eee ne 2,114, 366 3,084,095 5,198, 461
1083/646) omeee ae 2,792,110 1,785,693 4,577,803

1/7 October-September basis. 2/ October through April. 3/ May through September.
SOURCE: CEPLAC

Brazil's Plan for the Economic Recuperation of the Cocoa Growers (CEPLAC),
which has been in effect since 1957, will lose its autonomy and become known
as the Superintendent of Cocoa Crop Development (SEPLAC) and be directly
under the Ministry of Agriculture. The transition is to be effective
December 15, 1984, and should give CEPLAC a broader financial base.

Ecuador's crop is forecast to recover somewhat from the effects of extremely
poor growing conditions of the past 2 seasons. The 1983/84 crop was expected
to show an increase over the "'El Nino" rain-damaged 1982/83 harvest, but
unusually cool temperatures resulted in production declining further to an
outturn of only 50,000 tons, the lowest since the disasterous 1972/73 crop of
39,395 tons. It will likely take several years before production will recover
to the levels attained 3 to 5 years ago.

Malaysian production is forecast at a record 120,000 tons, nearly double that
of 1981/82, as new areas come into bearing and young trees increase in
productivity. The harvested area for the 1984/85 crop is estimated to
increase to 190,000 hectares, compared with 160,000 a year earlier and 120,000
during 1982/83. Weather during the past 2 years has not been generally
favorable, which has kept production below Malaysia's actual potential.

Some negative aspects of Malaysian cocoa have been the high shell content and
acidity levels of the beans. The shell content for Malaysian cocoa usually
ranges between 16.2-16.5 percent, compared with 12.0-12.4 percent for West
African cocoa. The pH level is 4.88-5.11, compared with 5.60-5.72 for West
African beans. Preferably, the pH level should not be lower than 5.40.
Research is continuing in efforts to improve quality and a cocoa grading
scheme was launched in August that requires all cocoa beans for the export
market to be inspected and graded by the Federal Agricultural Marketing
Authority. Currently this scheme is limited to Peninsular Malaysia only.

With the opening of the seventh cocoa processing plant, Malaysian annual
grinding capacity has been increased to approximately 33,000 tons. Grindings
during the 1983/84 season were estimated at about 17,000 tons.

MAJOR IMPORTERS

World consumption of cocoa and chocolate products has held up quite well in
light of higher prices and 2 consecutive years of stock drawdowns.
Manufacturers generally have tended to absorb a portion of the price increase
in raw materials, thus partially shielding consumers from the full impact of
higher cocoa bean prices. The economic recovery in most major consuming
countries has also contributed to the strong market for confectionery
products. The grinding picture in 1984 was somewhat distorted by the need to
process additional amounts of cocoa to offset the smaller size of West African
beans, which were reduced by the drought.

U.S. cocoa bean grindings are running ahead of a year earlier, although the
decision by one major company not to report grind has made it more difficult
to analyse consumption trends. Data indicate that U.S. grindings during the
first 9 months of 1984 are 11 percent ahead of a year ago, despite the rising
trend of many manufacturers to introduce and promote products that contain
filler centers, and/or items that use smaller amounts of cocoa and chocolate.

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U.S. imports of cocoa beans during the first 8 months of 1984 were below year
earlier levels as were imports of chocolate liquor and cocoa butter. However,
imports of sweetened chocolate, cocoa cake/powder, and confectionery products
showed good gains during this period.

U.S. IMPORTS OF COCOA BEANS AND PRODUCTS, JANUARY-AUGUST 1983 AND 1984

: Januar y-August :

Item : 1983 : 1984 : Percent Change
BS S255 555 Metlei tons

Gocoa beans. hoe ch ssc: ae Wee each es 148,908: -21.4
Chocolate: Wiquor. io amarereate aetere : SI 716 21,898: | os =210
Sweetened chocolate..........: 18,899 26,0955) = +41.2
Cocoa! IDUEEE Tiere cieie-« ore crave ovcters : 34,626 Sl OSAR Fs =i
Unsweetened powder/cake......: 54,987 64 N72: +17.7
Sweetened cocoa powder.......: LS 5ll6 5,882 tee +288.0
Confectioners coatings....... : 381 2,668 : +600.3
Chocolate confectionery...... : 11,300 LS USOn tes +60. 6

Total, 4.6 te he. Pee : 342,821 526.874 -4.7

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce.

Import data indicate that cocoa consumption in the U.S.S.R. is increasing.
Imports of cocoa beans in 1983 were a record 162,679 tons, well above 1982
imports of 115,459 tons. Nigeria was the largest supplier of cocoa to the
Soviet market, followed by Brazil, Ghana, and the Ivory Coast.

West German grindings during January-September 1984 totaled 140,851 tons, 8.6
percent greater than the corresponding 1983 period, and will likely exceed the
record 1983 level of 179,462 tons. U.K. grind for the first 9 months was 18
percent above the similar 1983 period, and grindings in the Netherlands will
likely be at record levels in 1984.

INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

A negotiating conference was held in Geneva, May 7-25, 1984, under the
auspices of the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), to develop
a new Intenational Cocoa Agreement (ICCA). However, sufficient progress on
developing a new ICCA could not be made within that time frame and the
conference was suspended until October. At the May meetings, the European
Community (EC) proposed that, in addition to the buffer stock, the withdrawal
and stocking of cocoa by producers rather than export quotas could aid in
stabilizing cocoa prices. But there was insufficient time to consider this
proposal.

10

Thus, the Cocoa Council at its July meeting extended the 1980 ICCA without any
alteration to existing terms for a l-year period to expire on September 30,
1985. The membership of the ICCA currently comprises 20 exporting countries
and 23 importing nations. The United States and the Ivory Coast, the largest
consumer and producer, respectively, are not members.

This circular was prepared by Rex E.T. Dull, Horticultural and Tropical
Products Division, FAS, (202) 447-2974. For further information on production
estimates, contact Frank Hokana, Foreign Production Estimates Division, FAS,
(202) 382-8878.

11

COCOA BEAN GRINDINGS BY SPECIFIED COUNTRIES, BY QUARTERS, 1976-84
(Metric tons)

Quarter : 1976 ©: 1977, 2) 1978) : \ 19799) -ge1950) ucts 10s os 7a ons Sioa

United States

Teta eee 60,873 56,473 42,048 40,572 33,478 48,358 47,729 45,883 42,416 1/
ZN celeleieisielsis te Dae LO 46,902 38,420 41,359 31,489 46,001 50,649 46,671 41,590 1/
Seb odonooss SSW! 40,914 36,923 41,401 34,877 48,761 50,068 47,825 40,904 1/
a Ns55n5500 8 SLAL!/7/ 39,463 45,269 36,970 42,368 47,059 50,680 53,231 ---
Total 225,347 183,752 162,660 160,302 142,212 190,179 199,126 193,610 ---
: West German
Steere ORZeL 38,297 39,770 37,592 40,240 41,739 45,125 45,681 49,900
BV eaganes Ss © Sp M{37/ 325315 34,724 34,819 35,405 37,583 39,850 41,019 48,570
Sribcoqococes SUACUS 30,494 30,308 30,337 32,937 35,437 35,757 43,010 42,381
Athcecieicics) BOO, OL 41,187 38,847 39,506 42,635 44,681 46,311 49,752 ---
Total....: 140,635 142,293 143,649 142,254 USN Aly 159,440 167,043 179, 462 ---
: Netherlands
US taejreierereiels) 4500 34,940 33,990 35,390 35,080 36,040 38,440 40,510 44,350
Brsscacceo8 Sh) 31,980 31,480 29,280 31,370 34,290 34,930 37,890 39,970
SrbGoooon08 AS eh) 26,610 26,680 29,760 29,510 32,650 33,670 35,170 34,960
Ate irereieie --: 35,090 32,590 33,760 33,030 36,660 37,980 41,330 43,370 ---
Totals. :) 1275520 126,120 125,910 127,460 132,620 140,960 148,370 156,940 ---
:
United Kingdom
Keysoscn008 = Z4natilt) 22,000 21,010 17,700 5 21,400 25,335 19,825 22,338
ZN creleleleleiciohs mal OOO 20,500 19,000 15,900 16,100 21,300 21,079 18,144 21,864
Side wreleleteicietsy Ls 900 16,400 15,900 12,300 15,500 20,200 19,594 17,434 21,081
LkatGoaooa0ces §=ZAL 40) 16,400 16,500 14,700 18,200 23,070 22,087 21,319 ---
Total....: 83,000 75,300 72,410 60,600 65,300 85,970 88,095 76,722 ---
: France
Sticeniecicio se LOS tZ5 10,725 10,815 11,530 5 12,600 13,090 12,185 13,960
Avisooonocns Srsils 10,450 10,905 11,455 10,860 11,955 12,315 12,850 ---
Srbsoq0n008 = / 7,455 7,330 8,820 9,050 9,620 9,730 10,870 ---
Athyaccieieric. S650 7,685 10,940 11,365 10,690 12,860 10,410 11,725 ---
Totaleeene 35,660 36,315 39,990 43,170 43,125 47,035 45,545 47,630 ---
g Belgium
HIS toreteteete sees 0200 4,499 4,015 4,504 5 7,755 4,951 7,789 8,883
ZN srerelelatelelohe MD ZOU, 3,795 3,528 3,552 5,238 6,983 4,032 7,654 8,044
ST cerererereisiels eto OO 4,437 SRST 3,179 5,063 6,527 3,566 U5 ---
Ati veclesejeieiers OOOO 4,111 4,723 555112 6,341 7,529 5,060 10,112 ---
Total....: 18,800 16,842 15,397 16,547 22,724 28,794 17,609 32,812 ---
g Switzerland
UGmas5aqnes Spells 4,407 3,699 3,096 5,300 4,748 4,548 5,568 5,560
Bribssgocc0s “hai si) 3,648 3,830 3,930 3,927 2,932 4,307 4,548 ---
ST sessyatstere 68 Sacey 4,305 3,409 2,862 3,774 4,683 3,980 3,818 ---
WVareagooso0s 4505 3,809 3,364 4,077 4,231 5,728 4,767 4,316 ---
Total....: 15,972 16,169 14,302 13,965 17,232 18,091 17,602 18,250 ---
: Japan
Wesoccqeq08 A/pilita/ 7,024 4,175 4,837 5,851 6,460 7,600 7,504 ---
Brisadoncos Welk 5,956 5,465 4,877 5,027 6,552 7,300 7,201 ---
ST srerersts 5608 5 iKU/ 6,725 5,727 6,073 6,820 7,745 8,241 9,493 ---
Atheccistsacies ones 6,014 5,764 6,598 7,059 8,354 8,979 9,324 ---
Totaleeees 32,461 25,719 ZAR I 22,385 24,757 29,111 32,029 33,522 ---
: Canada
Uesen5q00a8 s2pwild 3,483 2,801 2,871 3,432 4,541 4,114 4,027 4,827
Brcadaacss | S6WN5 2,888 2E313 DAS 3,076 3,366 3,698 3,889 5,261
Setlaonosook 9 Gnikt! 2,011 2,164 1,913 2,411 3,246 2,907 3,337 ---
WaNeoo500008 © Sn v¥43 3,029 3,245 3,513 3,234 5,730 4,989 4,767 ---
Total....: 12,872 11,411 10,583 10,528 A2EUSS 16,883 15,708 16,020 ---
: Italy — Tao =—s
Ues556500008 0743 5,857 7,010 6,264 8,019 8,618 9,595 8,376 ---
Bribascoacas Y-ul7 6,888 8,520 10,020 8,381 8,065 10,051 7,902 ---
Srdsyereieiere 508 eek 5,287 6,338 6,898 8,139 5,818 5,977 8,137 ---
Ath yectcieicieieis | 395909 8,334 8,191 10,425 9,254 12,639 13,593 11,990 ---
Totaleeeey: 35,387 26,366 30,059 33,607 33,793 35,140 39,216 36,405 ---

T/ Incomplete data--1984 grind excludes reporting by 1 major processor.

SOURCE: National statistics of the respective countries.

October 1984 Horticultural and Tropical Products Division, FAS/USDA

sz

COCOA BEANS: IMPORTS BY SPECIFIED COUNTRIES, 1978-1983
(Metric tons)

Continent and country : 1978 g 1979 : 1980 : 1981 : 1982 : 1983 1/
North America: z
Canadasewstccaacicaalcleciesase—sle=— i= 12,706 10,670 11,401 14, 860 15,980 15,923
United States.................. : ©208, 562 167, 881 150,869 248, 896 197,333 217,121
Motalessese=seee =a asea ates Ee CL 205 178,551 162,270 263, 756 213,313 233,044
Latin America: :
Argentina.......---------------: 205 197 102 648 2,794 1,384
Chil eteeewaee see a eeeecieee oceans 623 892 413 2/ 500 2/ 500 2/ 500
Colombians sane ee een eceeee ec escieel: —S5 --- --- ee ~3,099 2/ 400
ElSalvad0rocsasesao=-eaceccce= is 260 295 265 2/ 75 2/ 150 2/ 100
IS Sea neccooaSsosncccassosesa5 S56 aie 105 40 2/ 10 oo
Uruguay22-<ccs-sseceasecees nice g 335 520 596 423 e225 167
Totali ss s2e -ssaee sesee coe: : 1,423 1,904 1,481 1, 686 6,778 2,551
Western Europe: g
(AuSELi aloes a toeeeaeete aeeeteass : 9,352 8,737 9,529 11,136 12,477 10,503
Belgtumaoacecceseeecorccacecees 16, 787 17,485 23,520 28,510 29,256 31,670
Dentarkesssseee scenes een eeseeeel 2,326 2,386 2,331 2,721 2,575 2,266
Binlandsescee ase see a aenicesies sales 1,640 1,560 1,384 1,687 995 897
BEANCC saat wicienicicinelstaisicicieielcimiaiete g 47,808 56,587 56,913 57, 633 60,211 57, 767
Germany, West.................- 2595637, 148,091 165, 848 171,796 196,412 172,558
Greece rmatecississiisieisienieieicreteieietsie’s : 5,038 5,368 5,609 4,188 5,091 4,710
Ucelandsesepecnecienciciecocrccicens 70 57 26 13 25 2/ 25
IreVand see cere cies eeiceniciccsnin= 8 6,240 5, 803 5,255 4,315 6,413 5, 802
Itallyeteeiectemieciecicteisieseiereieiatsias : 30,058 33,637 33,748 35,141 39,216 36,425
Netherlandsssa- cise ale cisicicie cleo : 150,429 143, 443 146, 796 170,084 184, 872 186, 436
Norwayasctcictesccmicisineiceicccieciesiee g 5,727 5,641 4,954 4,751 5,480 4,971
PoTtugal aeeciciceis eeieclocisine cicicisiens 211 143 6 80 2/ 75 2/ 75
Spainbemeemmteniceciecteiseieeiclelereietes : 32,501 35,890 35,274 40,096 32,182 35,796
Swed embeyemtsniesisinicteisisiieeiocincieaicle 5 5,101 4,413 4,599 2,507 3,199 2,904
SwiltzeTlandseiacisrteleieleieisieleicleie =i § 16,487 13,591 17,412 20,011 18,475 19,797
United Kingdom................- : 87,956 72,126 87, 481 94,159 112,157 65,274
Wugosilaviliatayesiie\srorlalclecicinicslecies = 11,987 14,325 14,863 15,105 11,665 6,771
Motalleemieteicteistetelelisvelaletalereieleleteisie : 589,355 569,283 615,548 663, 933 720,776 644, 647
Eastern Europe §& USSR:
Bul parslasaecisteeiscisctetoeicisisieslereisiol = 4,456 6,055 4,501 6, 787 7,045 5,600
Czechoslovakia................- g 14,641 13,093 17,619 17,486 17,756 SUZ:
German Democratic Rep..........: 23,734 21, 682 21,101 22,050 15,573 13,165
Fampanyammiecccissisisiecieleiscisnisictetes & 16,854 10,676 12,718 14,079 10,210 8,854
Rolandhemeieciceisisicicie cise crecieicice's : 24, 730 20,679 6, 686 6,267 9,500 16, 870
Romanitiatenemcicceceiecececneccre g 14,050 13,800 11,666 11,300 5,643 6,050
USSRemereceiistsicissieetesioeiesisieisiacie= ) eS S 1S 126,260 126, 844 121,139 115,459 162,679
IWeeASSSS556SSSucassesanGg650R AUIS E 212,245 201,135 199,108 181,186 230,530
Africa: 5
Algeria cieiacisais cists siccc.s's/senele'e : 541 73 217 2/ 200 2/ 200 2/ 200
EGY PUsteiclelatelstels ESadoscaeqqq0n6De B 1,908 76 239 ~1,670 “1,032 “1,750
WORNKEO GG ogqqacadOCDDDO5000000 & 181 174 254 209 187 2/ 200
SouthyAEricans <icierecles ees cleicieee : 4,134 2,968 2,404 3,311 5,105 2/°5,000
MUN UST am oratstealsietersteiieicisieiciosiciersiciels 300 148 200 696 360 a 900
TOtalleveratsistsistesciarcicie cicie/stele(orere 2 7,064 3,439 3,314 6,086 6,884 8,050
Asia and Oceania: :
AUS Chall Vasyetsielslsiciciele alcleteisisle eelerel> : 12,460 11,411 10, 406 10, 784 8,943 6,089
Gini Wacassonousanocosde0Kdes & 14,900 13,500 13,000 12,000 12,000 12,000
Ind VaNtense Sore ween cesar : 819 445 425 738 500 2/ 600
UST AC Weeerncioiniaavcisinvesteciocicciccisice : 1,294 1,125 1,073 1,132 1,290 2/'1,200
Japanbrersaicreianteiicrcicielelere cieeisieniciere : 21, 638 23,064 22,755 31, 656 36,370 34, 891
Korea, Republic of............- 5 909 1,522 1,545 e255 897 1,554
New))Zealland ecrssistelsieisisicicieicis's icielie 4,186 3, 826 3,559 4,050 3,764 4,077
Philippinesasrciscictes science ectenee : 3,693 4,328 3,647 12,283 12,626 2/ 10,720
SINPFApOLe se lorsiseseais sleeisinies Seales 5,447 8,635 14,429 24,124 37,615 45,474
SY Blab cscecteiccicens Nervaforcisialcieteleree : 5 5 25 10 25 45
TUTEKCYeeteretateistoteiereiiocinvesiniocioisicteicne 1,279 470 852 2,525 1,980 4,136
IEAM cadacoo saad qG0GaoGdakos 3 66, 630 68,331 71,716 100,557 116,010 120, 786
Grand! total Serrereisiscielesnielestenicleleiete : 1,087,318 1,033, 753 1,055, 464 1,235,126 1,244,947 1,239, 608

T/ Preliminary. 2/ Imports estimated.

Foreign Agricultural Service. Prepared or estimated on the basis of official statistics of foreign governments,
other foreign source material, reports of Agricultural Attaches and Foreign Service Officers, results of office
Tesearch and related information.

October 1984 Horticultural and Tropical Products Division, FAS/USDA

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